2025-05-01 Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call May 1, 2025 5:30 PM ET
Company Participants
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr. – Chief Executive Officer
Doug Howell – Chief Financial Officer
Conference Call Participants
Elyse Greenspan – Wells Fargo
Greg Peters – Raymond James
Mike Zaremski – BMO Capital Markets
Mark Hughes – Truist Securities
David Motemaden – Evercore ISI
Katie Sakys – Autonomous Research
Andrew Andersen – Jefferies
Meyer Shields – KBW
Cave Montazeri – Deutsche Bank
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company’s First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. The lines will be open for questions following the presentation. Today’s call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
各位下午好，欢迎参加Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2025年第一季度财报电话会议。与会者目前处于只听模式，演示结束后将开放提问环节。今天的电话会议正在录音，如果您有异议，现在可以挂断电话。
Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that can cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company’s most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties.
本次电话会议中所作的一些评论，包括对问题的回答，可能构成证券法意义上的前瞻性声明。公司没有义务对本次电话会议中提供的信息或前瞻性声明进行更新。这些前瞻性声明存在风险和不确定性，可能导致实际结果与预期有重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多详细信息，请参阅公司最近提交的10-K、10-Q和8-K文件中的前瞻性声明和风险因素部分。
In addition, for reconciliations of non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company’s website.
此外，关于本次电话会议中讨论的非GAAP指标的调节说明以及有关这些指标的其他信息，请参阅公司官网投资者关系板块中的财报发布及相关材料。
It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.
现在很荣幸为大家介绍Arthur J. Gallagher & Company董事长兼首席执行官J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.先生。Gallagher先生，请开始。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thank you. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO; and other members of our management team.
谢谢。下午好，感谢大家参加我们2025年第一季度业绩电话会议。今天与我一同参会的还有我们的首席财务官Doug Howell以及管理团队的其他成员。
We had a fantastic first quarter. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 14% growth in revenue, 9% organic growth, reported net earnings margin of 23%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 41.1%, up 338 basis points year-over-year, adjusted EBITDAC growth of 26%, our 20th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, GAAP earnings per share of $3.29 and adjusted earnings per share of $4.16. Another excellent quarter by the team.
我们度过了一个极为出色的第一季度。在经纪和风险管理两个业务板块合计方面，我们实现了14%的收入增长，9%的有机增长，净利润率为23%，调整后EBITDAC利润率达到41.1%，同比增长338个基点，调整后EBITDAC增长26%，这是我们连续第20个季度实现两位数增长，GAAP每股收益为3.29美元，调整后每股收益为4.16美元。团队再次交出了一份优秀的答卷。
Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 16%. Organic growth was 9.5%, which included about 1 point of favorable timing. Even without the timing impact, all-in organic was right in line with our expectations.
接下来分业务板块介绍业绩，首先是经纪业务板块。报告收入增长为16%，有机增长为9.5%，其中大约有1个百分点受益于有利的时机。即便不考虑时机因素，总体有机增长也完全符合我们的预期。
Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 359 basis points to 43.4%, with underlying margins up a full percentage point. Doug will unpack this in his comments.
调整后EBITDAC利润率提升了359个基点，达到43.4%，基础利润率提升了整整一个百分点。Doug稍后会详细解读。
Let me provide you with some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our retail P/C operations, we delivered 5% organic overall. U.S. organic was north of 5%, while our international operations, primarily in the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, were closer to 4%. Our global employee benefit brokerage and consulting business posted organic of more than 7%.
让我为大家介绍一下我们经纪板块有机增长背后的一些情况。在我们的零售财产/意外险业务中，整体有机增长为5%。美国本土的有机增长超过5%，而我们的国际业务，主要在英国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰，接近4%。我们的全球员工福利经纪和咨询业务有机增长超过7%。
Shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses, in total, organic of 13%. This includes 20% organic from Gallagher Re and 8% organic from our wholesale and specialty businesses. So we continue to report strong growth across retail P/C, wholesale, reinsurance and benefits.
再来看我们的再保险、批发和专业业务，总体有机增长为13%。其中，Gallagher Re的有机增长为20%，批发和专业业务的有机增长为8%。因此，我们在零售财产险、批发、再保险和福利等领域持续实现强劲增长。
Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global P/C insurance market continues to behave rationally with carriers looking to grow in lines and geographies where there’s an acceptable return, and seeking rate increases where it’s needed to generate an appropriate underwriting profit.
接下来，我想谈谈财产/意外险的定价环境，先从原保险市场说起。总体来看，全球财产/意外险市场依然保持理性，保险公司会在有合理回报的业务线和地区寻求增长，并在需要实现合理承保利润的领域寻求费率提升。
Breaking down first quarter global renewal premium changes by product line, we saw the following: property down 2%, D&O down 3%, workers’ comp up 5%, personal lines up 8%, casualty lines up 8% overall, including general liability up 5%, commercial auto up 6% and umbrella up 11%.
分产品线来看，第一季度全球续保保费变化如下：财产险下降2%，董事及高管责任险下降3%，工伤险上涨5%，个人险上涨8%，整体责任险上涨8%，其中一般责任险上涨5%，商业车险上涨6%，伞型责任险上涨11%。
Breaking down renewal premiums by client size, we continue to see a divergence between small to midsize accounts and large accounts. For small to midsize accounts, which we define as accounts generating less than $100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 5%. For large accounts, our clients generating more than $100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 1%.
按客户规模划分续保保费，我们依然看到中小客户和大客户之间的分化。对于中小客户（年收入低于10万美元），续保保费上涨5%；对于大客户（年收入高于10万美元），续保保费上涨1%。
All that said, pricing is ultimately driven by client loss experience. Good accounts are getting some premium relief in certain lines. However, accounts with poor experience are seeing greater increases. Having a trusted adviser like Gallagher can help businesses navigate a complex insurance and economic backdrop by finding the best coverage for our clients while mitigating price increases, today’s environment is the ideal market for us to show our expertise, product knowledge and our data-driven capabilities.
尽管如此，定价最终还是由客户的理赔经验决定。表现良好的客户在某些险种可以获得一定的费率优惠，而理赔记录较差的客户则面临更大幅度的费率上涨。像Gallagher这样的值得信赖的顾问，能够帮助企业在复杂的保险和经济环境中找到最佳保障，降低费率上涨的影响。当前的市场环境正是我们展示专业能力、产品知识和数据驱动能力的最佳时机。
Let me move to the reinsurance market. First quarter dynamics, which is mostly influenced by January 1 renewals, reflected an environment that generally favored reinsurance buyers. Overall, reinsurers were able to meet increased client demand with sufficient capacity while remaining disciplined on terms. The Gallagher Re team shined with excellent retention and some fantastic new business wins.
接下来讲讲再保险市场。第一季度的市场动态主要受1月1日续保影响，整体环境对再保险买方较为有利。总体来看，再保险公司能够以充足的承保能力满足客户需求，同时在承保条件上保持了纪律性。Gallagher Re团队在客户保单留存和新业务拓展方面表现非常出色。
April renewals experienced similar trading conditions as earlier in the year, and as expected, saw a bit more downward pricing pressure. The January wildfire losses and continued casualty reserve increases remain a focus for the industry. But neither caused much upward movement in pricing given the large proportion of Japanese buyers in April. With that said, U.S. severe convective storm season is here, which then leads us to U.S. wind season. Time will tell how the year plays out. Regardless, Gallagher Re should continue to excel in this environment.
4月续保市场的交易环境与年初类似，正如预期所料，出现了一些价格下行压力。1月的野火损失和持续增长的责任准备金仍是行业关注的重点，但由于4月日本买家占比较大，这些因素并未引发价格大幅上涨。与此同时，美国强对流风暴季节已经到来，接下来就是美国飓风季。未来如何发展还有待观察，但无论如何，Gallagher Re有望在当前环境中继续表现出色。
Moving to some comments on our customers’ business activity. During the first quarter, our daily revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations continued to be a net positive. While the upward revenue adjustments are not quite as high as last year, we continue to see solid client business activity and no signs of a meaningful global economic slowdown.
接下来谈谈客户的经营活动。第一季度，我们通过审计、批单和退保获得的每日收入指标依然呈现净正增长。虽然收入上调幅度不及去年，但客户业务活动依然稳健，没有出现全球经济实质性放缓的迹象。
Our daily revenue indications through the end of April are not showing any significant changes in our customers’ business activity from the prospect of tariffs. Our daily indications have historically given us some early insights into our clients’ business activity, so we will continue to watch these very carefully.
截至4月底，我们的每日收入指标并未显示因关税前景导致客户业务活动出现显著变化。历史上，这些每日指标能为我们提前洞察客户的业务动态，因此我们会继续密切关注。
We are also closely watching the U.S. labor market. And there continues to be a strong demand for new workers. The number of open jobs in the U.S. stood at more than 7 million, still at a level that is well above the number of unemployed people looking for work. We’ve also seen recent health insurance carry results show continued increases in the utilization and cost of health care.
我们也在密切关注美国劳动力市场。目前对新员工的需求依然强劲，美国的职位空缺数量超过700万个，远高于正在找工作的失业人数。我们还注意到，近期健康保险的承保结果显示，医疗服务的利用率和成本持续上升。
With these two trends as the backdrop, we are seeing more and more employers looking for ways to grow their workforce and control their benefit costs. Our experts can provide creative solutions to solve these challenges. Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are well positioned to compete and to win. From our niche expertise, outstanding service or extensive data and analytics offerings, we have the resources and know-how to service any account of any size, of any complexity anywhere around the globe. So with a fantastic first quarter behind us, we continue to see full year 2025 Brokerage segment organic in the 6% to 8% range.
在这两大趋势的背景下，越来越多的雇主在寻求扩大员工队伍和控制福利成本的方法。我们的专家能够为这些挑战提供创新的解决方案。无论市场和经济环境如何，我相信我们都具备强大的竞争力和取胜的能力。凭借我们的细分领域专长、卓越的服务以及丰富的数据与分析能力，我们有信心为全球任何规模、任何复杂程度的客户提供服务。第一季度的优异表现之后，我们预计2025年全年经纪板块的有机增长仍将保持在6%至8%的区间。
Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. First quarter revenue growth was 6%, including organic of about 4%. We continue to see excellent client retention and strong new business production. However, sold new business within the Risk Management segment typically takes longer to materialize into revenue. As these new client contracts incept and begin to generate revenue in the coming months, we are confident we will see stronger revenue growth in the second half of the year. Adjusted EBITDAC margin was 20.5%, in line with our March expectations. Looking ahead, we still see full year 2025 organic in that 6% to 8% range and margins around 20.5%.
接下来谈谈我们的风险管理板块Gallagher Bassett。第一季度收入增长为6%，其中有机增长约为4%。我们继续保持出色的客户留存率和强劲的新业务拓展。不过，风险管理板块的新签业务通常需要更长时间才能转化为收入。随着这些新客户合同在未来几个月陆续生效并产生收入，我们有信心在下半年实现更强劲的收入增长。调整后EBITDAC利润率为20.5%，与我们三月的预期一致。展望未来，预计2025年全年有机增长仍将在6%至8%的区间，利润率大约为20.5%。
Shifting to mergers and acquisitions. During the first quarter, we completed 11 new tuck-in mergers, representing around $100 million of estimated annualized revenue. We also announced the acquisition of Woodruff Sawyer during the quarter and completed that in early April. That means through today, we already are at $400 million of acquired revenue. For those new partners joining us, I’d like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.
说到并购，第一季度我们完成了11项新的“补充式”并购，预计带来约1亿美元的年化收入。我们还在本季度宣布收购Woodruff Sawyer，并于四月初完成交割。截至目前，我们今年已收购的年化收入达到4亿美元。对于所有新加入的合作伙伴，我要向你们致以最热烈的欢迎，欢迎加入Gallagher这个专业大家庭。
As for the pending AssuredPartners acquisition, not much to update relative to our March IR Day comments, we are working to respond to the second request. And we still expect to close in the second half of 2025. Looking at our pipeline, we have more than 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing north of $450 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.
关于正在推进的AssuredPartners收购案，相比三月投资者日的说明，目前没有太多新的进展，我们正在积极回应监管部门的二次询问。我们仍预计将在2025年下半年完成交易。就并购储备管线而言，我们已签署或正在准备的意向书超过40份，涉及年化收入超过4.5亿美元。优秀的公司总有选择，如果他们选择与Gallagher合作，这将非常令人振奋。
I’ll conclude with some comments about our bedrock Gallagher culture. During our Global Sales Award meeting in early March, our unique Gallagher culture was on full display. It was inspiring to watch the interactions among thousands of our colleagues across geographies, business units and product lines. I came away even more convinced that our greatest asset is our people and our biggest differentiator is our culture. And that is the Gallagher way.
最后，我想谈谈我们坚实的Gallagher文化。在三月初的全球销售奖会议上，我们独特的Gallagher文化得到了充分展现。看到来自不同地区、业务单元和产品线的数千名同事相互交流，令人深受鼓舞。我更加坚信，我们最宝贵的资产是员工，最大的差异化优势是我们的企业文化。这就是Gallagher的方式。
Okay. I’ll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?
好的，我就讲到这里，接下来交给Doug。Doug？
Doug Howell
Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today I’ll walk you through our earnings release, starting with some comments on first quarter organic growth and margins by segment, including how we are seeing these shape up for the full year 2025. Next, I’ll move to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers. And then I’ll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A and capital management.
谢谢Pat，大家好。今天我将带大家解读我们的财报，首先会介绍各业务板块第一季度的有机增长和利润率表现，以及我们对2025年全年走势的判断。接下来，我会讲解我们在投资者关系网站上发布的CFO说明文件，并带大家了解一些常用的财务建模参考。最后，我会像往常一样，对现金流、并购和资本管理做总结性发言。
Okay. Let’s flip to Page 2 of the earnings release. Headline, Brokerage segment organic growth of 9.5% was a great quarter and it helps bolster our view that full year organic will be in that 6% to 8% range. And that range is in line with what we’ve been saying all year.
我们来看财报第2页。经纪板块本季度有机增长达到9.5%，表现非常出色，这也进一步增强了我们对全年有机增长将在6%至8%区间的信心，这与我们全年以来的预期一致。
As Pat mentioned, first quarter did have some favorable timing of about 1 point. So looking forward, we see some favorable timing again in the second quarter, but not to the same magnitude. And then all of the first half timing will reverse itself in the third and fourth quarters with no impact on full year 2025.
正如Pat所说，第一季度确实受益于大约1个百分点的有利时点因素。展望第二季度，仍会有一些有利的时点影响，但力度不及一季度。到了三、四季度，这些有利因素会逐步消化，对2025年全年并无实质影响。
So as we look through to the rest of the year, second quarter might be more like 6% to 7%. Then we will see the timing slip in the third and fourth quarters might mean third and fourth quarter organic of about 5% each. Causes a low noise across the quarters, but with a 9.5% first quarter, the math gets us back to a full year 2025 organic in that 6% to 8% range. That would be a terrific year.
因此，预计二季度有机增长将在6%至7%之间，三、四季度则可能回落到各自约5%左右。虽然各季度会有一定波动，但凭借第一季度9.5%的高增长，全年有机增长仍有望达到6%至8%区间，这将是非常优秀的一年。
So flipping now to Page 4 of the earnings release, to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. First quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 43.4%, up 359 basis points year-over-year and above our March IR Day expectations. So let me walk you through a bridge from last year as we typically do.
接下来请翻到财报第4页，经纪板块调整后EBITDAC表。第一季度调整后EBITDAC利润率为43.4%，同比提升359个基点，高于我们三月投资者日的预期。下面我来为大家梳理一下与去年同期的对比。
First, if we pull out last year’s 2024 first quarter earnings release, you would see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 39.9%. But now I’m using current period FX rates that would have been 39.8%. Then organic growth of 9.5% gave us about 120 basis points of expansion this quarter. The roll-in impact of M&A and lower interest rates each used about 10 basis points of margin this quarter.
去年一季度，我们报告的调整后EBITDAC利润率为39.9%，按当前汇率调整后为39.8%。本季度9.5%的有机增长为利润率带来了约120个基点的提升。并购与利率下降分别摊薄了约10个基点。
Finally, as the footnote at the bottom of that table notes, the impact of interest income from the cash that we’re holding for the AssuredPartners acquisition adds us about 260 basis points of margin this quarter. Follow that bridge and it will get you to first quarter 2025 margin of 43.4%. That is really, really great work by the team.
最后，正如表格下方脚注所示，我们为收购AssuredPartners而持有的现金带来了约260个基点的利息收入贡献。按照这个逻辑推导，最终得出2025年一季度43.4%的利润率。团队的表现非常出色。
As for second quarter headline margin expansion, it’s still looking like we will be pushing around 300 basis points, again, driven by strong underlying margin expansion of approximately 60 to 80 basis points assuming organic in that 6% to 7% range and also interest income related to the cash we’re holding for AP plus a small offset by the roll-in of M&A and lower interest rates.
展望第二季度，利润率扩张预计将达到约300个基点，主要得益于强劲的基本面扩张（大约60至80个基点，假设有机增长在6%至7%），同时还有AP收购相关现金的利息收入，部分被并购摊薄和低利率影响所抵消。
Looking out towards the third quarter, we would still expect underlying margin expansion, and then we’ll also have the impact of investment income on the funds we’re holding for AP. So in total, think – we’re thinking expansion could be 250 to 280 basis points. This, of course, would change if we get AP closed before September 30. As for fourth quarter, we would hope we’d have AP closed, so we would have underlying margin expansion still, but lose the extra investment income, yet have AP’s fourth quarter results in our books.
展望三季度，我们依然预期会有基本面利润率扩张，同时还会有AP收购资金的投资收益，总体利润率扩张预计在250至280个基点之间。如果AP收购在9月30日前完成，这一情况可能会有所变化。至于四季度，我们希望AP已完成并表，届时将继续实现基本面扩张，但会失去额外的投资收益，同时AP的四季度业绩将纳入我们的财报。
The punch line here is there’s nothing we’re seeing that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We believe at organic greater than 4%, we should see some underlying margin expansion. At 6% organic, maybe 60 basis points of expansion and at 8% organic, perhaps around 100 basis points of expansion. So again, there’s no new news here. We still believe we are positioned to expand underlying full year margins by about 60 to 100 basis points.
总的来说，目前没有任何迹象显示我们需要调整对基本面利润率扩张潜力的判断。我们认为，只要有机增长超过4%，就能实现一定的利润率扩张；有机增长6%时利润率可提升约60个基点，8%时可提升约100个基点。因此，没有新的变化，我们仍有信心全年基本面利润率扩张60至100个基点。
Sticking on Page 4. Risk Management segment organic was 3.9%. That’s a bit below our 5% expectation due to lower new business revenue. As Pat mentioned, we expect this to improve in the second half of the year as we have already sold new contracts, but these have yet to start generating revenue. So we see organic moving back towards 6% to 8% throughout the year. Adjusted EBITDAC margin of 20.5% was in line with our March IR Day expectations. And looking forward, we still see full year margins again around 20.5%.
继续看第4页，风险管理板块的有机增长为3.9%，略低于我们5%的预期，主要是新业务收入较低。正如Pat提到的，随着新合同已售但尚未开始产生收入，我们预计下半年会有所改善，因此全年有机增长有望回升至6%至8%。调整后EBITDAC利润率为20.5%，与三月投资者日预期一致，预计全年利润率也将维持在20.5%左右。
Turning now to Page 6 of the earnings release and the Corporate segment shortcut table. For the adjusted interest in banking, clean energy and acquisition lines, all were very close to our March IR Day expectations. The corporate line was better than our March expectations due to some expense timing, a few favorable tax items, including the tax benefit from stock-based compensation, somewhat offset by an unrealized FX remeasurement loss.
接下来请看第6页的公司板块简表。银行、清洁能源和并购相关的调整后利息支出都与三月投资者日的预期非常接近。公司板块整体表现优于预期，主要受益于部分费用时点、若干有利的税务项目（包括基于股票薪酬的税收优惠），但部分被未实现的外汇重估损失所抵消。
So now let’s move from the earnings release to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our website. First, as an overall statement, please read the headers and footnotes carefully on how these numbers in this document include or exclude the impact of AssuredPartners.
现在我们从财报转到发布在网站上的CFO说明文件。首先，请大家注意阅读表头和脚注，了解这些数据是否包含AssuredPartners的影响。
That said, let’s flip to Page 3 and our modeling helpers across the board. First quarter 2025 actual numbers were fairly close to what we provided back in March. One thing to call out in our 2025 outlook are changes from FX for both the Brokerage and Risk Management segments. With the dollar weakening since mid-March, we have provided updated estimates for revenue and EPS impacts for the remainder of the year. Just take a look at the disclosures and refine your models.
请翻到第3页，我们的各项建模参考。2025年一季度实际数据与三月预期基本一致。需要重点关注的是汇率变化对经纪和风险管理板块的影响。自三月中旬以来美元走弱，我们已更新了全年收入和每股收益的影响预估，建议大家参考披露内容，调整模型。
Turning now to Page 4 and the Corporate segment outlook for 2025. Within the corporate line of the Corporate segment, like I mentioned earlier, we had some favorable expense timing in the first quarter. So you’ll see some of that comes back over the rest of the year. We’ve increased after-tax expense by about $1 million per quarter for the remainder of 2025. However, the rest of our outlook for the Corporate segment is unchanged from six weeks ago.
接下来是第4页，公司板块2025年展望。正如前面提到的，一季度公司板块有部分费用时点利好，后续季度这些费用会逐步体现。我们将2025年余下季度的税后费用每季度上调了约100万美元。但除这一调整外，公司板块的其他展望与六周前保持一致。
Flipping to Page 5 to our tax credit carryovers. A reminder – this is a reminder page, as of March 31, we have about $710 million of tax credits. We continue to expect additional cash flow of more than $180 million this year and even more in 2026 and later years. And don’t forget, this benefit will show up in our cash flow statement rather than our P&L. So it’s still a nice sweetener to fund a future M&A.
请看第5页，关于税收抵免结转的提醒。截至3月31日，我们拥有约7.1亿美元的税收抵免。预计今年将带来超过1.8亿美元的额外现金流，2026年及以后还会更多。请注意，这一收益体现在现金流量表而非损益表上，因此对未来并购资金是一个很好的补充。
Turning now to Page 6, the investment income table. We’ve updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. And you’ll see here that we’re still assuming two 25 basis point rate cuts during 2025. You’ll also see that we provided a separate line to show our estimates of interest income associated with the funds that we’re holding to pay for AssuredPartners.
接着看第6页投资收益表。我们已根据当前汇率和受托现金余额调整了预测。今年仍假设会有两次各25个基点的降息。我们还单独列出了为支付AssuredPartners收购而持有资金的利息收入预估。
Shifting down on that page of the rollover revenue table. First quarter 2025 column subtotal is around $80 million and $92 million before divestitures. These numbers are consistent with our March IR Day expectations. Looking forward, the pinkish columns to the right include estimated revenues for brokerage M&A closed through yesterday. And just a reminder, you’ll make a pick – that you’ll need to make a pick for future M&A.
同页下方是滚动收入表。2025年一季度小计约为8000万美元，剥离前为9200万美元，均符合三月投资者日预期。展望未来，右侧粉色栏显示截至昨日已完成的经纪并购预估收入。请注意，未来并购还需大家自行预测。
Then below that table, we have a separate section for AssuredPartners. We show you what we expect for monthly pro forma revenues in purple. And then finally, continuing down on the page, you’ll see the Risk Management segment rollover revenues too.
表格下方单独列出了AssuredPartners，紫色部分为每月预计的备考收入。再往下则是风险管理板块的滚动收入。
So moving to cash, capital management and M&A funding. We had no outstanding borrowings on our line of credit at March 31. And you might have seen that in early April, we amended our credit agreement. We extended the maturity date to April of 2030 and also increased our borrowing capacity from $1.7 billion to $2.5 billion.
再来说现金、资本管理和并购资金。截至3月31日，我们的信用额度没有未偿还借款。四月初我们修订了信贷协议，将到期日延长至2030年4月，借款额度也从17亿美元提升至25亿美元。
Our current cash position, potential borrowing capacity and strong expected free cash flow position us well for our pipeline of M&A opportunities. So even after the $13.5 billion for Assured paying for Woodruff and paying for the Willis Re earn-out, and after the other 11 deals we’ve already done through Q1, we still have over $2 billion of M&A capacity here in 2025 and another $5 billion of capacity in 2026 before using any stock. So our M&A strategy has a tremendous runway.
我们目前的现金状况、潜在借款能力以及强劲的自由现金流，使我们有充足的资源支持并购储备。即使支付了AssuredPartners、Woodruff Sawyer和Willis Re的对价，以及一季度已完成的11笔交易后，2025年我们仍有超过20亿美元的并购能力，2026年还有50亿美元空间，且未动用股票。因此，我们的并购战略拥有广阔的发展空间。
So another excellent quarter in the books. As we look ahead, we see strong organic growth, a terrific M&A pipeline. We continue to see opportunities to improve our productivity and quality. And as Pat said, we have a winning culture. So it looks like we’re well on track for another great year.
本季度再创佳绩。展望未来，我们有强劲的有机增长和优质的并购储备，持续提升生产力和服务质量。如Pat所言，我们拥有制胜的企业文化，看起来今年又将是丰收的一年。
Back to you, Pat.
交还给你，Pat。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Doug. Operator, I think we’re ready to go to questions-and-answers.
谢谢你，Doug。接线员，我想我们可以进入问答环节了。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
Thank you. \[Operator Instructions] Our first questions come from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。\[操作说明] 我们的第一个问题来自富国银行的Elyse Greenspan女士。请开始提问。
Elyse Greenspan
Hi. Thanks. Good evening. My first question, I wanted to start with the pretty impressive 20% growth that you guys saw in reinsurance. Can you just try to break that down between what’s coming from pricing, retention, new demand? And then if you could give us a sense like if it’s new-new or if it’s business that you’re taking from peers? Because it’s a pretty strong number.
你好，谢谢，晚上好。我的第一个问题是关于你们再保险业务中非常亮眼的20%增长。你们能否拆解一下这增长是来自定价、续保还是新需求？另外，你们是否能说明这些业务是全新的，还是从同行那里争取过来的？因为这个数字确实很强劲。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Well, thanks, Elyse. And let me try to break down some of the 20% organic. First, the reinsurance folks, they’re just on fire. They had a great quarter and a lot of it came with the January 1 renewals.
谢谢你，Elyse。我来拆解一下这20%的有机增长。首先，我们的再保险团队简直火力全开。他们这个季度表现非常好，主要得益于1月1日的续保。
So let me break down three pieces. Our new business spread was responsible for more than half the organic this quarter. In fact, we had about 15 new client wins with more than \$1 million each. These are big chunky deals. This is not similar to what we do on the retail side. Increased renewal premiums from carrier growth was another 5% or so, inflation, people buying more cover, as you see some rates come down, people have some room for additional cover, et cetera. And the remainder was some favorable timing. We have now better insights into it. And as I noted, it will reverse itself in the latter half of the year.
我来分三部分解释。第一，我们新增业务贡献了本季度一半以上的有机增长。实际上，我们赢得了约15个每个保费超过100万美元的新客户。这些都是大单，不同于我们零售端的业务。第二，由于保险公司业务增长，续保保费提高，贡献了约5%左右，此外，通胀以及客户增加保障额度也起了作用，特别是随着一些费率下降，客户有空间购买更多保障。最后一部分是有利的时间效应。我们现在对此有更清晰的了解，正如我之前提到的，这部分将在下半年反向调整。
But let me be clear, we said from the very beginning that we thought this was a group of folks that when working with our overall company when we integrated them into working with retail and our wholesale and specialty people, that it would be a good match. And that’s what we’re seeing. These guys and gals are just doing a tremendous job, and the new business was outstanding. Congratulations to them.
但我要说清楚，我们从一开始就认为这个团队在与我们公司整体协作、与零售、批发及专业团队整合后，将会是一种良好的组合。而事实也确实如此。他们做得非常出色，新增业务表现杰出，值得祝贺。
Elyse Greenspan
That’s great. And then my second question, so it sounds like you guys are still working, I guess, not a lot to update, as you said, like working on a response to the DOJ. So is that something, I guess, you guys would expect to respond? I think there’s like a 30-day clock once that happens. Is that something that, based on the timeline of a Q4 close, Doug, is that – would you expect to just respond to comments, I guess, that would be something that would happen in the Q2? Is that your expectation?
很好。那么第二个问题，听起来你们仍在处理与司法部（DOJ）相关的事项，似乎没有太多新的更新。你们是否预计将在规定的30天期限内作出回应？根据你们计划Q4完成交易的时间表，Doug，你是否预计回应过程会发生在第二季度？这是你们的预期吗？
Doug Howell
All right. We’re obviously putting together all the information that’s been requested. And we’re working hard on it both on our side and then the AP team is doing the same thing. We’ll get that over to them sometime in mid-third quarter. And then it does start a clock tick, you may have the right to ask some questions. But there is a process here. First, getting that over, certifying to it and then they’ll have 30 days to get back to us on that.
是的。我们现在正准备整理所有司法部要求的资料，我们这边在努力准备，AP团队也在同步进行。我们会在第三季度中旬把资料提交上去。之后，就会启动30天的时钟，他们可以在那段时间提出问题。这是一个有程序的流程，先提交并确认无误，然后他们有30天的时间来回应。
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. And then I just – you mentioned that there was, I guess, some timing that impacted on the first quarter, some kind of – was it a pull forward from other quarters? I think it was 1% and then there was also going to be an impact in Q2.
明白了。你刚刚提到第一季度有一些时间上的影响，是不是有部分收入提前确认了？好像说的是1%的影响，然后第二季度也会受到一些影响？
Doug Howell
Yes. All right. So let’s go through that a little bit because I think it’s a good question. First, it doesn’t do anything to full year. Second, we’re just getting some better insights into the development of revenues. We’ve implemented our new reinsurance system last fall. So that’s up and running. We’ve got a new benefit system. So those systems help us look into the treaties and then to the expected headcount in our benefits business. So while the timing this quarter was mostly in reinsurance, let’s call that about two thirds, and the other one third is across our benefits business and a little bit in the specialty business.
对的。我们详细讲讲这个问题，因为确实很重要。首先，这对全年没有任何影响。其次，我们现在对收入的形成有了更深入的洞察。我们在去年秋季上线了新的再保险系统，现在已经全面运行；我们还有新的福利系统。这些系统能帮助我们更好地了解保单条款以及福利业务中的预期员工数。因此，这季度的时间性影响主要发生在再保险业务上，占约三分之二；剩下三分之一则出现在福利业务和少量专业业务中。
But without this timing, the first quarter for reinsurance was still in the upper teens, and it impacted specialty and benefits each about a point. But we’re going to have a little bit of that again in the second quarter, but to a lesser magnitude. And then again, the timing will reverse itself compared to last year in the third and fourth quarters. So no impact for full year organic. And we would say that this is the result of just putting in new systems and be able to make better estimates earlier on in the year.
即便没有这个时间效应，再保险第一季度的增长也仍然能达到高十几个百分点。对专业和福利业务的影响大概都是1个百分点。我们预计第二季度还会有一些类似的影响，但幅度更小。然后到了第三和第四季度，相比去年，这些时间差会逆转回来。所以，对全年有机增长没有影响。我们认为这主要是因为新系统上线，使我们能够在年初就做出更准确的估计。
Elyse Greenspan
Thank you.
谢谢。
Doug Howell
Thanks, Elyse.
谢谢你，Elyse。
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.
谢谢。接下来是来自Raymond James的Greg Peters先生的问题。请开始提问。
Greg Peters
Good afternoon.
下午好。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Hi, Greg.
你好，Greg。
Greg Peters
Hi. So Pat, in your comments, I think it was – yes, Pat, it was you, that talked about the bifurcation of renewal pricing in the small to mid accounts, which was you defined as less than \$100,000, and then the mid to large account. Just wondering if you could provide some more color, because the commentary we’re hearing in the marketplace around that seems to suggest that the larger account business might be under a little bit more rate pressure, specifically in the property areas.
你好，Pat，我记得刚才是你提到小型至中型账户（你定义为低于10万美元）与中大型账户之间在续保定价方面的分化。我想请你进一步说明一下这一点。我们从市场上听到的一些说法是，大型账户特别是在财产险领域可能面临更大的费率压力。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Well, that’s exactly what I said, Greg. I mean, I think we’re seeing in the large account area, and it’s the typical economics. You’ve got a bigger account, you got more swag, right? You can get a better deal. Especially if you’ve got good results. And these larger accounts are better managed from a risk management standpoint, and they’re seeing the results of that. Our people are clearly helping with that.
Greg，你说得对，正是我所讲的。我们确实看到，在大客户领域，这是一种典型的经济学现象。账户越大，谈判筹码越多，对吧？你就能争取到更好的价格。尤其是当这些客户的赔付记录良好时。大客户的风险管理做得更好，他们因此受益良多。我们的团队也确实在帮助他们。
You get down into the smaller accounts, all the way down to your personal lines, you don’t have the negotiating power. And at the same time, they don’t have the great results. So it’s a fluid market, but it makes sense to me that, if you’re bigger, you get a little bit better deal than if you’re smaller.
当你往下看那些小型账户，甚至是个险业务，这些客户缺乏议价能力。与此同时，他们的赔付表现也不理想。所以虽然市场是动态的，但我认为这是合理的：客户越大，议价空间就越大，所获得的条款也更有利。
Doug Howell
Yes, it’s pretty linear too, Greg. If you look at, let’s say, over 100, we said it’s up a point or so or something like that. But when you go to like \$25,000 to \$100,000, maybe it’s 3.5%, 4%, you get a little lower than that \$10,000 to \$25,000 account, maybe you’re getting in the mid-4s. And then when you get less than \$10,000 as that account size, now this is for premiums, you’re seeing it being up in the mid-5s. So it’s consistent even within that under \$100,000 million, that the smaller it gets, the higher the rate increases. We saw that not going up as fast on the other side too, when rates were going up. So I don’t know if it’s as much they’re just a reversion to the mean, also that the smaller accounts are catching up.
是的，这个趋势其实很线性，Greg。比如账户规模超过10万美元的，续保价格涨幅大约是1个百分点左右。而在2.5万到10万美元之间的账户，涨幅可能是3.5%到4%；再小一点的账户，比如1万到2.5万美元，大约是4.5%左右；低于1万美元的小账户，保费涨幅就达到了5%以上。所以即便在10万美元以下的账户中，也体现出越小涨幅越高的规律。过去在涨价周期中我们也观察到，小账户涨得没那么快，所以这轮可能也有点“均值回归”的意味，小账户正在赶上来。
低端客户的生存处境。
Greg Peters
That makes sense. For my second question, my follow-up question, I’m going to pivot back to the pending acquisition of AssuredPartners. This has been – you’ve obviously been working very closely with them for the last several months now and trying to get this to the finish line. And I know you were pretty forthcoming with details about how you expected margin improvement to materialize and retention and organic revenue growth to develop. And I’m just curious, now that we’re here in May, if you have a different perspective or if there’s any different changes you have on the views on the opportunity with AssuredPartners for all of the areas I mentioned.
明白了。我的第二个问题是关于你们正在推进的收购AssuredPartners。过去几个月你们显然与他们保持密切合作，力争顺利完成交易。我记得你们曾很坦率地讲过你们预计利润率将如何提升、客户留存和有机收入增长将如何实现。我想知道，现在已经进入五月，你们对AssuredPartners的预期是否有所变化，尤其是我提到的那些方面。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Well, thank you for the question, Greg. But I’ll tell you, it’s actually gotten stronger. I mean we did our Board meeting this week, and that was, of course, one of the key questions. Their turnover is actually better than ours, not by a lot, by maybe 0.5 point to a point. So they’re staying very consistent with what they’ve had in the past. And that’s after bonuses have been paid, so we’re not seeing an uptick. I said, when we did the deal, I didn’t expect any breakage. We’ve seen a producer here or there depart, but that’s common business across all of our platforms. In terms of the people, we’ve had to be careful given the request for another bit of information, but there are certain work streams that have been allowed to continue.
谢谢你的提问，Greg。坦率地说，我们对这笔交易的信心反而更强了。我们这周刚开过董事会，这是会议上的一个关键话题。他们的员工流失率甚至比我们还低，虽然只低了半个百分点到一个百分点，但依旧维持了他们一贯的水平。这是在发完奖金之后的情况，说明没有出现流失高峰。当我们最初宣布收购时，我就说过我不预期会有太多流失。确实有一两个业务员离开了，但这种情况在我们所有平台上都很常见。至于人事方面，由于信息披露方面的要求，我们得谨慎处理，不过仍有一些工作流程在继续推进。
And I’ll tell you what, just every single day, our people are more affirmed than the fact that they’re dealing with folks that they really like. They understand the business. They love the business. And they can’t wait to get the two organizations together. There’s no waffling, there’s no momma crying. It’s people that just want to go out and sell a lot of insurance. And we’re very, very – more excited than we were in January.
我可以告诉你，我们的团队每天都越来越肯定，他们正在与一群志同道合的人合作。这些人非常了解保险行业，也热爱这个行业。他们已经迫不及待地想让两个组织融合到一起。没有人犹豫，没有人叫苦连天，这是一群只想出去把保险卖好的人。相比1月份，我们现在的热情更高了。
Greg Peters
Got it. Just a detail question on that. Is the organic profile at Assured based on what you’ve seen just similar to what you’re seeing inside your retail business?
明白了。我有一个具体问题：根据你们的观察，Assured的有机增长趋势是否与你们自己的零售业务相似？
Doug Howell
Yes.
是的。
Greg Peters
Perfect.
很好。
Doug Howell
Yes. I mean they account for 606 \[ph] differently, but let’s just say it is. You can throw a hat over them.
是的。他们在会计处理上（606准则）略有不同，但总体上可以认为增长趋势是一样的，两者差别不大。
Greg Peters
Perfect. Thank you.
太好了，谢谢。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Greg.
谢谢你，Greg。
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。接下来是来自BMO资本市场的Mike Zaremski先生的问题。请开始提问。
Mike Zaremski
Thanks. Good evening. Doug, the – or I think Pat might pull this too, the one point of timing benefit in Brokerage organic, is that in addition to the \$26 million reversal on Page 6 of the CFO commentary, which I’ll admit is kind of over my head, in terms of its explanation?
谢谢，晚上好。Doug，或者也可能是Pat，你们提到的经纪业务有1个百分点的时序性好处，这是不是还包括CFO评论第6页上提到的2600万美元的冲销？我必须承认，那个解释我有点没看明白。
Doug Howell
Yes. I think you’re calling out the fact last year – and we highlighted it last year, there was a gross up of revenues and a gross up of expenses as we implemented our conforming accounting policies on some historical acquisitions that caused the gross up. So we didn’t take credit for the \$26 million as revenue last year and so we shouldn’t be measured by that again this year.
是的。我想你说的是我们去年提到过的一件事——我们对一些历史收购按照统一的会计政策进行了调整，导致收入和支出同时被“毛计提”。所以去年我们并没有把那2600万美元算作收入，因此今年在同比时也不应该再把它计入其中。
So it’s just if you gross up the revenues, you gross up the comp on the revenues and a lot of those revenues triggered some extra earn-outs on it, it all washed to nothing. And we did talk about it last year, but it kind of sticks out a little bit more now, you can see that we repeated the note about that, on Page 6, I think it’s in the third footnote – or second or third footnote there. So it’s – we’re levelizing for a change in purchase accounting, which I think is 100% appropriate.
所以简单说就是：当你毛提收入时，相关的薪酬支出也会相应毛提，其中很多收入还触发了一些额外的收益条款，最终这些项目彼此抵消了。我们去年就提到过这件事，不过现在它看起来更显眼些。你可以在第6页看到我们再次提到了这点，应该是第二或第三个脚注。所以这其实是我们在针对收购会计政策变更做出的调整，我认为这是完全合理的。
Mike Zaremski
Okay. Got it. I’ll make sure to go through that. Switching gears a bit, a question on also Brokerage organic. The RPC stat that you began giving out in recent years, which is helpful, I think it was 4% this past quarter. And organic, obviously tremendous, five-plus points above that. But if we look kind of going back a few years that you disclosed RPC – it’s much – the gap between organic and RPC is much narrower. Curious, should the gap stay wider than historical kind of implied by your guidance? And maybe part of the reason is reinsurance isn’t included in RPC. But any – am I asking a question you think is fair?
明白了，我会回头仔细读一下那部分内容。换个话题，还是关于经纪业务的有机增长。你们这几年开始披露的RPC（每单位收入佣金）数据很有帮助，我记得上个季度是4%。而有机增长则是远高于这个水平，多了5个百分点以上。但如果我们回顾你们过去披露的RPC数据，历史上有机增长与RPC之间的差距要小得多。我想知道，这种差距会不会维持在比历史水平更大的范围？也许部分原因是RPC并不包括再保险？你觉得我这个问题提得合理吗？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
It’s a fair question, Mike, but here are a couple of things. We were a different company than we were then. And number one, we’ve got many more large accounts. Our large account penetration continues to grow every month, and a lot of that business is on fees. Then also, when you take a look at the business and how we’re selling it, I think that we’re better sellers today. We’ve got tools that are just unbelievable in terms of helping our producers get out and drive new business, whether it be what we call Gallagher Win \[ph], which is sales force, and then you’ve got the data analytics and Gallagher Drive, which I think most of you have seen these tools, we presented them to you.
Mike，你的问题很合理，不过这里有几点需要说明。我们现在的公司和当年已经不一样了。第一，我们现在的大客户数量明显增加，大客户渗透率每月都在提升，而且这类业务中有相当一部分是以服务费计价的。第二，看看我们现在的销售方式，我们的销售能力比以前更强了。我们拥有一套令人惊艳的工具来帮助业务员开拓新客户，比如我们叫做Gallagher Win的销售平台，还有数据分析工具Gallagher Drive，我相信你们很多人都见过这些工具，我们也曾向你们展示过。
喜欢夸张的用词，销售型的人格，喜欢骗自己。
And they’re maturing now. They’re in the hands of solid producers that have got – any time the market is in flux. That’s great news for our producers up and down. And frankly, right now, it’s a great time and it’s a great message for our client base and our prospect base work with Gallagher. And we think we’ve got an opportunity to really do a great job on your pricing as well as your coverage and your terms. So we’re a different company, better opportunities, more fee business, larger platform, stronger players.
这些工具正在日益成熟，现在都掌握在经验丰富的销售人员手里。在当前市场波动加剧的环境下，这对我们的销售团队来说其实是个利好。坦率地讲，目前是个很好的时机，也是我们向现有客户和潜在客户传递Gallagher价值主张的最佳时刻。我们认为，现阶段我们能够为客户提供更优的定价、更好的保障、更合理的条款。简而言之，我们已经是一个更强大的公司，拥有更多的机会、更多服务费型业务、更大的平台和更有实力的团队。
Mike Zaremski
Okay. That makes sense. If I could just sneak one last one, a follow-up in. You said that you’ll respond to the, I guess, government about the Assured data request in a number of months. Any color on why this data request would take such a long time to...
明白了，很有道理。我最后问一个小问题作为补充。你们提到会在几个月后向政府回应关于Assured的资料请求。能否透露一下，为什么这个数据请求会需要这么长时间准备？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
I’ll give you one bit of color, Mike. We’re not talking a lot about this. That’s intentional. It’s a lot of data from both parties.
Mike，我可以简单说一点，我们之所以不多谈这件事是有意为之。因为这涉及双方大量的数据。
Mike Zaremski
Appreciate it, Pat.
感谢你的回应，Pat。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Sure, Mike.
不客气，Mike。
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。接下来的问题来自Truist证券公司的Mark Hughes先生。请开始提问。
Mark Hughes
Yes, thank you. Good afternoon.
好的，谢谢。下午好。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Hey, Mark.
你好，Mark。
Mark Hughes
Pat, if I heard you properly, you said the workers’ comp up 5% versus I think it was up 1% last quarter. Is there something going on there or?
Pat，我如果没听错的话，你说工伤保险上涨了5%，而上个季度是涨了1%。这里面发生了什么变化吗？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Not really. I mean, we did actually plum for that among our Gallagher Bassett’s biggest line of covers, of course, is comp. We were asking ourselves, is there any systemic change there? We don’t see it most of comp is fee scheduled stuff. So I think it’s underlying comp costs are up with medical. But I also do think it’s a better economy than I think people are writing about. Our daily check-in on the economy is that our middle market accounts, in particular, are pretty robust.
其实也没有太大变化。我们确实研究过这个问题，Gallagher Bassett最大的业务之一就是工伤保险。我们也在问自己是否有系统性的变化？目前看不出来，大部分工伤险还是按费率表计算的。我认为工伤险的基础成本在随着医疗支出上升而增长。同时，我觉得整体经济比外界报道的要强劲一些。我们每天对经济进行追踪，特别是在中型客户群体中表现相当稳健。
Doug Howell
Yes. We’re still seeing good employment growth in those folks. We are – I think there is starting to be more chatter around medical inflation. So there could be some proactiveness there by the carriers on that in order to make sure they stay ahead of it. So it’s not a huge portion of our book really, but it is an interesting uptick that is – remember, that’s both rate and exposure. So it’s moving north and our educated guess is more exposure and higher medical inflation.
是的，我们在这些客户群体中仍然看到良好的就业增长。我认为现在关于医疗通胀的讨论也开始增多，保险公司可能会因此采取一些主动行动，以确保不被成本赶超。所以虽然这部分业务在我们整体业务中占比不大，但它确实是一个值得关注的上行趋势。别忘了，这个增长既包括了费率的上升，也包括了保额的扩大。我们的判断是，主要由风险暴露增加和医疗通胀推高所致。
Mark Hughes
And then on the property market, Pat, what’s your sense of how this thing plays out? Obviously, it’s sensitive to cat losses. So a lot of it depends. But in your experience where you’ve had kind of a run-up and then you start to see it turn back a little bit, how is this going to work over the next few quarters, couple of years?
那关于财产险市场，Pat，你怎么看接下来的走势？显然它对巨灾损失非常敏感，很多情况取决于自然灾害。但根据你的经验，以往这种大幅上涨后又出现回调的情形，接下来几个季度或未来几年会怎么发展？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Well, again, Mark, let me go back in my history, which is a long one now. The property markets, I would define it as fragile, right? When you’re minting money, it’s a great place to be. And of course, you’re going to give customers back some of the money you’ve made. But boy, the bill comes hard when it comes, and it’s not gradual.
好问题，Mark。让我回顾一下我的经验，也算是久经沙场了。我会把财产险市场定义为“脆弱”。当市场挣钱的时候，它是一个很好的行业，当然你也会适当回馈客户一些利润。但问题是，一旦灾难来临，代价是巨大的，而且不会是温和的下滑，而是突然转向。
And so it just seems that we’re all concerned. In fact, you might recall a year ago or so, we surveyed over 1,000 of our customers, middle market customers, their number one concern was weather-related, climate change. And I think we all see it. We never had tornadoes in the fall. These convective storms have got every scratching their head. The prediction for the hurricane season is more storms than normal. Last year, there was that prediction as well, and it wasn’t as severe.
所以大家其实都很警惕。实际上你可能还记得，大约一年前我们对1000多位客户做过调查，主要是中型企业客户，他们最担心的就是天气相关的风险和气候变化。现在大家都能感受到变化，比如以前秋季从来没有龙卷风，而现在对流风暴让人摸不着头脑。气象预测显示今年的飓风季风暴次数会高于正常年份。虽然去年也有类似预测，但最终并没有那么严重。
But I’ll tell you, whoever saw California wildfire is coming, you combine those with some storms, both in California and around the world – well, the thing about property is it can change on a dime. Now we certainly hope that doesn’t happen because our customers have been shocked. You know how I feel about hard markets. I’d much rather have a market that’s pretty stable, lets us show our tools, help us contain the cost for our clients. It’s hard to explain to people why rates are jumping.
但你看，谁能预测到加州会有那么严重的野火？如果再加上一些其他风暴，不论是在加州还是全球其他地区……财产险市场可以说是瞬息万变。我们当然希望不要出现极端事件，因为我们的客户已经够受打击了。你知道我对“硬市”的看法，我更希望市场稳定一些，这样我们可以发挥我们的工具优势，帮客户控制成本。否则我们很难向客户解释为什么费率突然暴涨。
You can do it in property because you can show them the losses. But I think you’re right to ask the question. It’s all well and good now. I think customers deserve a bit of a decrease. Carriers are on a little bit of an edge, if you will. They know they’ve got to give some money back. The market is competitive, but if the wind blows, the story could change very quickly.
当然，在财产险上我们还能拿出数据说明损失。但你这个问题问得很对。现在看起来一切还好，我也认为客户确实应该得到一些降价回馈。但保险公司目前有点紧张，他们知道自己需要退还部分利润。市场竞争确实存在，但只要一个风暴来了，整个局势可能会立刻翻转。
Mark Hughes
Very good. Well, everything – it’s definitely crazy out there with the Cubs \[ph] in first place. I’m with you.
说得很好。现在一切确实变化很快，连小熊队都排第一了（笑）。我支持你的看法。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
No, Mark. That’s the new normal.
不，Mark，这就是“新常态”了。
Mark Hughes
Okay. All right. Thank you.
好吧，明白了，谢谢你。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
We waited 100 years. Some people have a bad decade. We had a bad century. We’re back for good.
我们等了100年。有些人经历一个糟糕的十年，我们是整个世纪都在低谷。现在我们终于回来了。
Mark Hughes
All right.
说得好。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Mark.
谢谢你，Mark。
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。接下来的问题来自Evercore ISI的David Motemaden先生。请开始提问。
David Motemaden
Hey, good evening.
你好，晚上好。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Hey, David.
你好，David。
David Motemaden
My question, I missed it, just on the RPC for this quarter. I think you had said it was 5% last quarter. It was trending around 4% in the first two months of the quarter, this 1Q. Where did that end up for 1Q? And within your outlook, what are you guys assuming for the rest of the year?
我之前没听清关于本季度RPC的内容。上季度你们提到是5%，本季度前两个月的趋势大概是4%。那整个一季度最终RPC是多少？你们在对全年展望时，对接下来几季度的RPC假设是什么？
Doug Howell
So let me see if I can break that apart. What’s your question? You want to know what the renewal premium change was in the first quarter and what our outlook is for the rest of the year? Is that the question?
让我理清一下你的问题。你是想知道第一季度的续保保费变动是多少，以及我们对全年剩余时间的预期吗？
David Motemaden
Yes. What’s embedded in the outlook that you gave – the organic cadence that you gave?
是的，主要是你们在给出自然增长节奏展望时所包含的假设。
Doug Howell
Basically about the same. We don’t see a further – property down 2%, call it flat. The casualty rates, we’ve had a lot of quarters on casualty rates as I look across the grid here, consistently in that 8% – 7%, 8%, 10%, 9%, 9%, 9%, 10% as I look at casualty rates coming across. So I think there’s still some concerns over casualty on that. So our outlook as we shape our organic for the rest of the year is assuming similar to what we saw right now, or this quarter.
基本上差不多。我们没有看到明显的变化——财产险下降了2%，可以说是持平。责任险方面，从过去几个季度来看，费率一直比较稳定，维持在7%、8%、10%、9%、9%、9%、10%左右。所以我们认为在责任险方面仍有一些定价压力。因此，我们对全年自然增长的预期假设是与当前季度持平的趋势。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
David, back to Mark’s comments before about a long time to look back. In my past experience, when markets became a little squishy, you’d see them fall quite dramatically across all lines. That is not what we’re seeing today. Umbrella cover up this past quarter 11%. Continuing push up of casualty. A little bit down on property. As we said in our opening remarks, this is a pretty logical market. So I don’t think you’re going to see any major change. And if we do, we’ll give it to you at our IR Day updates.
David，回到之前Mark的评论，他说可以回顾长期经验。在我过去的经验中，当市场变得有些疲软时，通常会在各险种上出现明显回落。但我们现在没有看到这种情况。本季度伞型责任险上涨了11%。责任险持续上涨。财产险略有下降。正如我们在开场陈述中提到的，这是一个相对理性的市场。所以我认为不会看到大的变化。如果有变化，我们会在投资者日更新中告知大家。
David Motemaden
Got it. Thank you. And then I guess I’m also wondering that difference between the middle market and large account. I guess I’m wondering just I know that there’s typically, the large account business is more cyclical and you guys are underweight that. But outside of that, when you look at your middle-market property book and small market property book, would you say that’s more SCS exposed and, therefore, the pricing might be a little bit more durable there? Or is that just – is that not the right way to think about it?
明白了，谢谢。还有一个问题，我在想中型市场和大型客户之间的差异。大型账户的业务通常更具周期性，而你们在这方面的敞口相对较小。但抛开这一点，如果你看你们的中型和小型财产险业务，你会认为它们更暴露在强对流天气风险（SCS）之下，因此定价可能更具持久性？还是说这种理解不太准确？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
I don’t like to think about it that way. And I’ll tell you why. Convective storms are – they seem to be localized in the Midwest. You got fire risk in lots of states I never thought of before, like New Jersey. But I don’t think that’s necessarily something you’d say is more akin to hurting those accounts, although you have to say there are a heck of a lot more small accounts than there are large accounts.
我不太认同这种看法。我来解释一下为什么。强对流风暴——它们通常集中在美国中西部。现在很多州也面临火灾风险，例如新泽西，这在以前是很难想象的。但我并不认为这些风险特别针对某一类账户。尽管必须承认，小客户的数量确实远远多于大客户。
There was 1,000 Fortune 1000 accounts. There’s 1,000 small accounts in Schaumburg. So I guess, in one sense, I’d argue, no, I don’t think those storms fall necessarily harder on one book of business than another, except by virtue of the fact that the numbers are just greater. I think it’s buying power. That’s what I’d say, David. It’s just real simple. If I get an account that’s going to pay me \$100,000 or an account that’s going to pay me \$100 million, who gets a better deal? \$100 million.
财富1000强只有1000个，但光是在绍姆堡可能就有1000个小型账户。所以某种意义上来说，我不认为这些风暴对哪一类业务冲击更大，更多是数量层面的差异。我认为关键是购买力。David，我的观点很简单：如果一个客户支付我10万美元，另一个客户支付我1亿美元，谁会拿到更好的条件？当然是1亿美元的客户。
David Motemaden
Yes. No, that makes sense. And then lastly so I might be nitpicking here, but I think you guys have called out 5% organic in U.S. retail and it sounds like that was maybe a little bit lighter than what you guys were talking about in March. I think you guys were saying 6%. Was there anything behind that outside of just the general RPC trends that we spoke about?
对，听起来有道理。最后一个问题，也许我有点吹毛求疵，但你们这次说美国零售业务的自然增长是5%，听起来比你们3月份提到的6%略低。当时你们预计是6%。除了我们提到的RPC趋势外，背后还有其他原因吗？
Doug Howell
Listen, I think that when you get down to a point one way or another on the organic, I would say they’re almost the same number. There could be a mix difference in there. When something moves a point, I’ll be honest, we don’t dig into it as deeply if something moves five points. So the point is consider it mix, but still, the point is on this is it’s still going up. And if you look across everything that we’ve said is we still have a market that is arguably flat in a couple of spots and going up in a lot of spots, right? So I think that the fact is there still is a need for rate. The carriers see that, you’ve seen that in the releases that they’ve had. And so I think that you blend all that together, we’re selling more than we’re losing, and we feel pretty good about a 6% to 8% year, that would be a terrific five- or six-year run on that.
我觉得当自然增长只差一个百分点的时候，其实差别不大。可能只是业务组合的差异。说实话，如果只是变动一个点，我们不会像变动五个点那样深入分析。所以这更多是组合差异。但重点是整体仍然在增长。从我们讲的所有内容来看，市场总体表现是，在某些领域持平，但很多领域仍在上升。因此，市场对保费增长仍有需求，保险公司也看到了这一点，从他们的公告中你也可以看出来。所以综合来看，我们卖出的业务仍多于流失的，我们对6%至8%的年增长率还是很满意的，这将是连续五六年非常出色的表现。
David Motemaden
No, I definitely agree. Thank you.
完全同意，谢谢你。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks David.
谢谢你，David。
Operator
Thank you. \[Operator Instructions] Our next questions come from the line of Katie Sakys with Autonomous Research. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。\[操作员指令] 接下来的提问来自Autonomous Research的Katie Sakys女士。请开始提问。
Katie Sakys
Hi, thank you. I guess my first question, I wanted to go back to Doug’s comments on the cadence of Brokerage organic growth that you expect to see for 2Q, 3Q and 4Q? Back-of-the-envelope math, I’m kind of getting to the midpoint of the 6% to 8% full year guide. Which of those quarters, Doug, do you kind of see the most potential to upside versus your current estimates right now? And how does seasonality perhaps inform that view?
你好，谢谢。我第一个问题想回到Doug之前关于经纪业务自然增长节奏的评论。你们对第二、第三和第四季度的预期是怎样的？我简单估算了一下，感觉全年6%到8%的指引中值基本符合。但Doug你觉得哪一季度相对于当前预估有最大的上行潜力？季节性因素对这个判断有什么影响？
Doug Howell
I think the upside could come in the fourth quarter. I think if we have a storm season, and like Pat said, the property shifts, I also still believe that there’s going to be development issues, as you get into your third quarter actuarial reserves as they start to do their third quarter views of how they feel their development is.
我认为上行潜力可能出现在第四季度。如果出现风暴季节，就像Pat说的，财产险市场可能会有所波动。同时我也认为会出现一些准备金相关的发展问题，特别是在第三季度，各公司精算团队会重新评估他们的准备金发展情况。
When it goes from a – into a paid loss triangle versus an incurred loss triangle, you kind of wake up to that when you do your actuarial reviews in the third quarter. So fourth quarter is probably the quarter where there’s the most upside.
当理赔数据从“发生赔款三角”转为“已付赔款三角”时，你在第三季度进行精算审查时通常会意识到这个变化。所以我认为第四季度最有可能带来上行空间。
Katie Sakys
Great. Super helpful. And then I apologize if this next question is a little bit nitpicky, but I noticed in the CFO commentary that the average EBITDAC multiple that you guys paid for your tuck-ins this quarter was slightly elevated at 11.5x versus the 10x to 11x guide. Is that just a result of some noise from one-off transactions? Or is there any additional color that we should be aware of there?
很好，非常有帮助。然后抱歉这个问题可能有点吹毛求疵，我注意到CFO的评论中提到，本季度你们用于收购的小型并购的平均EBITDAC倍数略高，为11.5倍，高于你们之前提供的10到11倍指引。这是因为某些一次性交易带来的波动吗？还是有什么我们需要额外注意的地方？
Doug Howell
If I peel apart the 11 that we closed in the quarter, I don’t see anybody really off the map on that. So being 10x to 11x is still pretty close, so.
如果我把本季度完成的11笔交易逐一拆解来看，没有哪一笔显得特别离谱。所以处于10到11倍之间还是很接近的，没太大问题。
Katie Sakys
Thank you.
谢谢你。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Katie.
谢谢你，Katie。
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。接下来的提问来自Jefferies的Andrew Andersen先生。请开始提问。
Andrew Andersen
Hey, good afternoon. The supplemental commissions within Brokerage were pretty strong. Was there any timing benefit there? And just maybe more broadly, could you talk about how you’re thinking about that those line items, the contingents and supplementals?
你好，下午好。经纪业务中的补充佣金表现相当强劲，请问这部分是否受到了一些时间上的益处？此外，能否更广泛地谈谈你们对这类项目——即或有佣金和补充佣金——的整体看法？
Doug Howell
All right. So supplementals in the first quarter. We’ve had some pretty good work as we start to negotiate contracts for the coming year. I think the team has done a good job of getting more carrier relationships under our supplemental. So I wouldn’t say that there’s anything systemic there. Maybe there’s a couple of million flip between contingent and supplemental, but that carriers switch back and forth between those.
好的，关于第一季度的补充佣金。当我们开始为下一年协商合同时，进展相当不错。我认为团队在将更多保险公司纳入我们的补充佣金协议中做得很出色。所以我不会说这当中有任何系统性因素。或许在或有佣金和补充佣金之间有几百万美元的转移，但这主要是因为保险公司有时在这两种形式之间来回切换。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
They’re still, by and large, volume-based. Volumes up, things are good.
总体来说，它们仍然是基于业务量的。业务量上升，收益自然不错。
Andrew Andersen
Got it. And then just within specialty, could you maybe talk about the growth difference between open brokerage and MGA? And I suppose where I’m going with this is, I’m not sure if the MGAs are kind of weighted to property. But if we’re seeing some compression in property rate, could that impact your MGA growth in the back half of the year?
明白了。然后在专业险板块方面，你们能谈谈开放经纪（open brokerage）和MGA之间的增长差异吗？我这么问的原因是，我不确定你们的MGA是否更偏向财产险。如果财产险的费率出现一定压缩，那是否会对你们下半年的MGA增长造成影响？
Doug Howell
Our binding business had a terrific quarter. I think they’re in the mid-teens. The Brokerage business was probably 5% to 6%, something like that. So I think between the two, Brokerage and binding, our affinity business had a terrific quarter. Captives were a little slow this quarter. But by and large, the binding business did a really great job. And the open brokerage is still continuing to show really, really nice mid-single-digit growth.
我们的绑定业务这个季度表现非常出色，我认为增长率在15%左右。经纪业务大概在5%到6%之间。所以在经纪与绑定这两个领域之间，我们的特许业务（affinity business）也有很强劲的季度表现。本季度我们的自留保险（captives）业务略显疲软。但整体而言，绑定业务的表现非常出色，而开放经纪仍然展现出非常稳健的中单位数增长。
Andrew Andersen
Thank you.
谢谢你。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Andrew.
谢谢你，Andrew。
Operator
Thank you. Our next questions come from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。接下来的提问来自KBW的Meyer Shields先生。请开始您的提问。
Meyer Shields
Great. Thanks so much. Two big picture questions, if I can. First, if my memory is correct then, one of the benefits you were talking about when you bought Gallagher Re was that you could introduce reinsurance brokerage capabilities to all of the carriers that you place business with. And I’m wondering whether the 20% organic growth that you had in the first quarter, does any – is that still a factor? Or has that played out and this is just the execution of the current team?
太好了，非常感谢。我有两个大方向的问题。第一个是，如果我没记错的话，当你们收购Gallagher Re时，你们曾提到一个好处是可以把再保经纪的能力引入你们现有的保险公司客户当中。我想问的是，这一季度你们录得的20%的有机增长，是否还包含这一因素的推动？还是说这部分红利已经释放完毕，现在只是现有团队执行力的体现？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
No, that’s a big factor. And that’s 15 deals. Again, we’re not getting granular as to who, what, where and when. But that’s exactly what we talked about. It’s coming out the way we dreamed it. These people are working together.
不，这仍然是一个重要的推动因素。这一季度我们有15个新客户案。虽然我不会细说是哪些客户、在哪些地方、何时签约，但这正是我们当初设想的整合方式，如今真的实现了。两个团队现在紧密合作。
We’ve introduced them to some other players that they didn’t know. They’ve introduced us to plenty of players we didn’t know. The cross-pollinization both in what we’re doing in retail and things like pools and what they’re doing with carriers that we didn’t know about has been very good for our retail team.
我们向他们介绍了一些他们不认识的客户，他们也为我们引荐了很多我们过去没有接触的合作方。我们在零售业务、共保池等方面的交叉协作，以及他们与我们不熟悉的承保方的联系，对我们的零售团队帮助很大。
And of course, we’ve got deep relations with carriers across the board that all of us at this table have traded with for years. And it’s not – it’s just really been a very positive development in our repertoire.
此外，我们和众多保险公司都有长期深厚的合作关系，我们在座的每一位都和这些承保人交易了多年。所以这确实是我们产品组合中的一项非常积极的发展。
Doug Howell
Listen, in our culture, the fact that people run together to help each other, we’re really seeing that. We’re seeing a lot of joint meetings between our retail folks, our wholesale folks, our reinsurers. I just spent a week in London, and all the opportunities that we have with MGAs and capital formation using the reinsurance opportunities, I think we’re just scratching the surface of what Gallagher Re will bring to us.
在我们的文化里，大家齐心协力、互相帮助是非常自然的，我们正在见证这一点。我们看到零售、批发和再保团队之间有很多联合拜访和会议。我刚从伦敦出差回来一周，在那边，我们看到了MGAs（管理型普通代理人）和资本形成方面的大量机会，通过再保平台实现的，这让我感觉我们刚刚开始挖掘Gallagher Re所能带来的潜力。
Meyer Shields
Okay. That’s very helpful. The second question, I’m just trying to put this together in my head. You’ve got more leverage with the big accounts because they’ve got more swag, I think that’s the way Pat put it. On the other hand, there’s a higher propensity towards fees there. So overall, is the larger account business more or less sensitive, from your perspective, the revenue growth more or less sensitive to the cycle than in small and mid?
好的，这非常有帮助。第二个问题我在脑中理了一下思路。你们在大客户那边有更大的议价能力，因为他们有“更多筹码”（我记得Pat是这么说的）。但与此同时，大客户通常以服务费为主。那么在你们看来，大客户业务的收入增长对周期的敏感性相比中小客户是更高还是更低？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
It’s probably less because we’re on fees. I mean, that’s – there’s no question about that. And the nice thing about a fee account in a softening market is that you don’t get asked to take a pay cut for doing a better job.
应该说是更不敏感，因为我们是以收取费用为主。这毫无疑问。软化市场中的好处是，如果是按服务费收费，即便你做得更好，客户也不会来要求你降价。
Meyer Shields
Okay. Thank you.
好的，谢谢你。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Meyer.
谢谢你，Meyer。
Operator
Thank you. Our last question will come from the line of Cave Montazeri with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your questions.
谢谢。本次最后一个提问来自德意志银行的Cave Montazeri先生。请开始您的提问。
Cave Montazeri
Thank you. I know you guys have a pretty good real-time pulse on the economy. Earlier in your prepared remarks, you mentioned the U.S. labor market was still strong. But just wondering in your conversations with clients, especially the middle market clients, what are they staying on the impact of tariffs on their business?
谢谢。我知道你们对经济的实时脉动掌握得很到位。你们刚才在准备好的发言中提到，美国的劳动力市场依然强劲。但我想知道，在你们与客户，特别是中型企业客户的沟通中，他们对关税对业务的影响是怎么看的？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
I think that you’ve read all the stuff, Cave, that there is out there. I mean everybody’s got questions, and it’s too – it’s very client specific. What business are you in? Where does your product mix come from? What’s your supply chain? Is it something that you can change one way or another? How do your clients feel about it?
Cave，我想你应该已经看过外界对这个话题的大多数分析了。每个客户确实都有疑问，而且这非常因客户而异。你是做哪一类业务的？产品组合从哪来？供应链是怎样的？有没有灵活性去调整？你的客户对此怎么看？
The good news for us is that any time there’s consternation, anytime there’s change, anytime there’s concern, we’re there to help them through it. So if, in fact, tariffs create some additional loss costs or some additional value increases, there’s ways to mitigate that, whether we move towards a captive, higher retentions, change the language, et cetera, et cetera.
对我们而言，好消息是，每当客户有困扰、有变化、有担忧，我们都能在他们身边支持。如果关税确实带来了额外的损失成本或价值上升，我们可以有方式去缓解，比如设立自保公司、提高自留额、修改保险条款等等。
伸缩自如，适应环境变化的能力很强。
But there’s concern as to what it means to them as individuals. And I’d say that’s much more pronounced in the middle and small cap market.
但不可否认的是，这种对影响的担忧在中小企业市场里更为明显。
Cave Montazeri
Makes sense. My follow-up is on your international organic growth. I think you mentioned 4% if I remember correctly, I guess it’s not a bad number in absolute terms, but it is a bit of a drag on the overall brokerage organic. Could you give us a bit of maybe regional color on what you’re seeing internationally? Maybe like some regions being better than others?
理解了。我的跟进问题是关于你们国际业务的有机增长。如果我没记错的话，好像是增长了4%。这个数字本身不算差，但对整体经纪业务的有机增长而言确实形成了一定拖累。你们能否提供一些区域上的情况？哪些地区表现较好，哪些相对滞后？
Doug Howell
Yes. Cave, it’s a flat market. Australia and New Zealand first quarter is very slow because of their heavy periods are in the summer. The UK retail is hanging in there, kind of similar to our retail. So if you’re thinking about maybe a – call Canada flat and the rest of them maybe 5% to 6%...
是的，Cave，这其实是一个持平的市场。澳大利亚和新西兰在第一季度比较慢，因为它们的高峰季在夏季。英国的零售业务还算稳健，跟我们的零售表现差不多。你可以把加拿大看作是持平，而其他地区大致在5%到6%的增长。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
And remember, nowhere in the world has our casualty book. Nobody’s got our tort system. So we are seeing pressure on casualty rates and carriers are seeing pressure on their past casualty years.
而且请记住，世界上没有其他国家像我们这样拥有如此庞大的责任险业务组合。没有哪个国家有我们这样的侵权制度。所以我们确实看到责任险的费率面临压力，保险公司也在承受过去责任险年度的压力。
Cave Montazeri
Yes, that makes sense. And if I could squeeze one more in on the topic of international, like from an M\&A inorganic growth point of view, internationally, like where is your appetite geographically, where you think there’s going to be good opportunities to grow in the future?
是的，这很有道理。如果可以再问一个关于国际业务的问题，就是从并购这种非有机增长的角度来看，地理上你们对哪些地区更感兴趣？你们觉得未来在哪些地方存在较好的增长机会？
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Well, first of all, we now trade extensively throughout the world. As we said in our prepared comments, there’s not an account anywhere in the world we can’t do, of any size. But if you take a look at premium, written premium, that’s the ball we’re following.
首先，我们现在已经在全球范围内广泛开展业务。正如我们在准备好的发言中所说，世界上没有我们不能做的账户，不论规模大小。但如果你看看保费，也就是签发保费的分布，那就是我们追逐的方向。
Cave Montazeri
Thank you.
谢谢。
J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.
Thanks, Cave. Well, thank you, everyone, for joining us this afternoon. We had a great first quarter and a great kickoff to 2025. It’s important that we think the 57,000 colleagues around the globe for doing the work that creates these results. Their creativity, dedication and unwavering client focus is what really makes these results. Thank you all, and have a great evening.
谢谢你，Cave。也感谢今天下午在场的所有人。我们度过了一个很棒的第一季度，为2025年打下了坚实的开端。我要特别感谢我们全球57,000名同仁，正是他们的努力才带来了这样的成果。他们的创造力、奉献精神和始终如一的客户导向，是我们成功的真正源泉。谢谢大家，祝晚上愉快。
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today’s teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your night.
谢谢。本次电话会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与。现在您可以断开电话连接。祝您晚上愉快。
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