2025-05-13 Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum (Transcript)
Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) Goldman Sachs Global Staples Forum Call May 13, 2025 11:40 AM ET
Company Participants
Garth Hankinson - Chief Financial Officer
Jim Sabia - Executive Vice President & President, Beer Division
Conference Call Participants
Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. Hi, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'm very delighted to welcome Constellation's CFO, Garth Hankinson, and EVP and President of their beer division, Jim Sabia.
好的，大家好，感谢各位今天的到来。我非常高兴邀请到星座品牌公司首席财务官加思·汉金森，以及其啤酒事业部执行副总裁兼总裁吉姆·萨比亚。
While the beer industry is currently experiencing a slowdown and the environment has been challenging, Constellation is expected to continue to grow faster than the industry, given its strong portfolio of leading brands, most notably Modelo Especial. And so, I'm excited to kind of get into some more topics with these two gentlemen today.
尽管啤酒行业目前放缓、整体环境颇具挑战性，但凭借其强大的领先品牌组合，尤其是 Modelo Especial，星座品牌仍有望保持快于行业的增速。因此，我很期待今天与两位嘉宾深入探讨更多话题。
So, thank you both for joining us. A lot going on, a lot to unpack.
感谢二位到来。今天内容很多，需要逐一拆解。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Q - Bonnie Herzog
So, I wanted to maybe start things with your outlook. You recently made a pretty large revision to your growth outlook for your beer business, and noted it was really driven by non-structural factors, which is tied to the macro, and then the Hispanic consumer behavior. So, I guess, in the context of that, what gives you the confidence that structural issues like I'm thinking about consumer shift toward the health and wellness, moderation, substitutes like cannabis maybe aren't behind the slowdown? Okay, I'll throw in GLP-1, too.
我想先聊聊你们的前景。你们最近大幅下调了啤酒业务的增长预期，并指出主要原因是非结构性因素，也就是宏观环境和西语裔消费者行为。那么在这种情况下，是什么让你们有信心地认为，诸如消费者追求健康与适度、转向大麻等替代品——好吧再加上 GLP-1 药物——这些结构性问题并非造成放缓的根源？
Garth Hankinson
So, I'll start, and then Jim can weigh in. And as you noted, we did reduce our outlook, and we did say that we think it's more transitory, if you will, in nature than it is structural. Broad picture-wise, the reason we feel that way is that we feel really good about the health of our brands, and we feel good about us controlling the controllables, so to speak, and Jim will get into more detail on that in a minute.
我先回答，然后由吉姆补充。正如你提到的，我们确实下调了预期，并表示我们认为这更像是暂时性的，而非结构性的。从大局来看，我们之所以这样判断，是因为我们对品牌的健康度很有信心，也认为自己在“可控因素”上把控得不错，吉姆稍后会展开说明。
But if we think about the non-structural piece of this, right, it really comes down to a couple of points, and you hit them already. One is just the macroeconomic backdrop. As we move through our fiscal FY '25, obviously, we saw some increases in unemployment, particularly with the Hispanic consumer, but more broadly, inflation continued to be a concern.
至于非结构性因素，核心就两点，你已提到。其一是宏观经济背景。在 2025 财年中，我们确实看到失业率上升，西语裔群体尤为明显，同时更广泛地说，通胀仍然令人担忧。
And while those things kind of stabilized in the last half of calendar year '24, they then got replaced with some other macro headwinds, if you will, things like year-over-year real disposable income growth in January being at a two-year low and then in February being the second lowest in two years. Private housing starts were weak to end the year and also weak to start the year. And then, even GDP growth, if you look at what the expectation is now versus where we were at the beginning of this calendar year, that's moderated some. And so, the macroeconomic backdrop, broadly speaking, just is not -- it's not provided the tailwinds that we maybe thought it was going to six or nine months ago.
虽然 2024 年下半年上述情况略有稳定，但随后又出现其他宏观逆风。例如，今年 1 月的实际可支配收入同比增速降至两年来最低，2 月则为两年内次低。私营住宅开工在年末和年初均表现疲弱。即便是 GDP 增长预期，相较年初也有所下调。总体而言，宏观背景并未像六到九个月前我们所预期的那样提供顺风。
Then, if you transition into the Hispanic consumer, as we announced on our last earnings call, we've commissioned an omnibus study that pulls Hispanic consumers to get a sense for their overall perception, if you will, of where they are and how they're feeling about the economy.
再来看西语裔消费者。正如我们在上一季度电话会上宣布的，我们委托了一项综合调研，了解西语裔消费者的整体经济感受与看法。
From this survey, there's real concerns in that community right now. We know that they think that there's a lot of uncertainty. Well over half of the cohort has concerns about the sociopolitical backdrop and the uncertainty in today's environment. And as a result, we know that they're tightening their belt a little bit as it relates to spend across the entire sort of grocery basket, so to speak.
调研显示，这一群体目前确有担忧。他们普遍认为充满不确定性。超过一半的受访者对当前社会政治环境感到顾虑。因此，他们在“购物篮”整体支出上开始有所收紧。
We also know that the vast majority of them are going out to the on-premise, retail, restaurants and bars less frequently. And they're also getting together at home with friends and family less frequently. And both of those are big consumption occasions for the Hispanic consumer. So, that belt tightening and that change in behaviors obviously has had an impact on beer consumption as well.
此外，大多数人外出就餐、逛零售店、去酒吧的次数明显减少，在家与亲友聚会的频率也下降。这两者都是西语裔的重要啤酒消费场景。由此带来的收紧与行为变化显然影响了啤酒消费。
So, those are the two biggest drivers that we're facing right now, the macroeconomic backdrop, and then the Hispanic consumer.
因此，宏观经济和西语裔消费者就是我们目前面临的两大主要驱动因素。
You referenced some other things that we don't feel is impacting our business materially currently. One, just in terms of the younger age cohort, for newly minted legal drinking age consumers, the growth that we achieved from that cohort is about 2x that of the total beer category. So, we feel good about the inroads we're making there.
你提到的其他因素，我们认为目前对业务没有实质影响。首先就年轻群体而言，新晋法定饮酒年龄消费者带来的增长是整个啤酒品类的约两倍，我们在这方面进展不错。
As it relates to GLP-1 drugs, for those consumers that have been on GLP-1 drugs for six months or more, the impact to beverage alcohol is significantly less than it is for other beverages, whether that's carbonated soft drinks, energy juices, it's more akin to the impact felt by water. Furthermore, consumers typically stay on GLP-1 drugs for about three months. And once they go off GLP-1s, beer consumption kind of goes back to the levels it was pre-going on them.
关于 GLP-1 药物，对已使用六个月及以上的消费者而言，其对含酒精饮料的影响显著小于对其他饮品（如碳酸饮料、能量饮料），更接近对水的影响。此外，消费者通常只服用 GLP-1 大约三个月，一旦停药，啤酒消费基本恢复到用药前水平。
And then, something like cannabis. We look at cannabis, and in those states where legalization has been in place the longest, a state like Colorado, we continued to perform well. So, we don't think that that's a material headwind.
至于大麻，在合法化时间最长的州（如科罗拉多），我们的表现依旧强劲，因此我们也不认为这是重大阻力。
Now that being said, I mean, we don't have our head in the sand. I mean, we're going to continue to monitor for structural changes, including in those categories, but again, we feel good about the health of the brands and the actions we're taking, we really just need the macroeconomic environment to turn for us.
话虽如此，我们并非固步自封，仍会持续监测包括上述品类在内的结构性变化。但正如所说，我们对品牌健康度及采取的举措很有信心，现在主要是等待宏观环境转暖。
And Jim can talk some more about the brands.
接下来吉姆会进一步谈谈品牌方面。
Jim Sabia
Yeah. So, as Garth articulated, the headwinds with this consumer, right? So as you know, Bonnie, we've grown 59 consecutive quarters up until fiscal '25 Q4, right? So, our brands have been very, very healthy, almost 15 years of constant growth. So, as we got into fiscal '25 Q4, we started looking at all of our brand health metrics. And we're fortunate all of our metrics are healthy, our brands are healthy, consumers prefer our brands. And we have a very loyal consumer with our brands, especially the Hispanic consumer. We have about 35% of our volumes is Hispanic, and then of Modelo Especial, it's like 50% of our volume is Hispanic.
是的，正如加思所阐述的，我们所面对的消费者正遭遇阻力。邦妮，如你所知，我们直到 2025 财年第四季度已连续 59 个季度实现增长。也就是说，我们的品牌非常健康，近 15 年来保持持续增长。当进入 2025 财年第四季度时，我们开始审视所有品牌健康指标。幸运的是，这些指标都很强劲，品牌状态良好，消费者也偏爱我们的品牌。我们的消费者极为忠诚，尤其是西语裔人群；西语裔销量占我们总体销量约 35%，而在 Modelo Especial 中这一比例约为 50%。
So, as you think about that consumer, we track zip codes that are heavy Hispanic zip codes. I've been out of retail a lot recently, going out to California, going to some of these accounts that are 100% like Northgates and Fiestas, where two years ago at 1 o'clock it was packed. This year, at 1 o'clock, very few people. So, there is a fear of the ice raids, there's a fear out there. So, these consumers are changing their behavior. That's in the off-premise trade.
谈到这类消费者，我们追踪西语裔高度集中的邮政区。我最近跑了很多零售门店，去到加州，走访像 Northgate、Fiesta 这类几乎 100% 服务西语裔的商超。两年前下午一点这里人满为患，今年同一时间却寥寥无几。大家担心移民执法突袭，存在恐惧感，因此这些消费者在店外渠道的购买行为正在改变。
In the on-premise trade, they're cutting back on social events. They're cutting back on restaurants. This has been going on a couple of months now. We're starting to see it get better, even the day laborers we're starting to see come out more. So, we're confident that this is non-structural and our brands are healthy, consumers love our brands, and we're going to continue to do what we control. And a lot of that is the shelf spaces we've picked up, picked up high-single-digits in the spring resets. We're introducing more SKUs going forward. We're taking a national approach to SKUs, but also a local approach by BU.
在堂食渠道，他们减少了社交活动，也减少了外出餐饮，这种情况已持续数月。现在开始有所好转，甚至看到零工人群也渐渐回归。所以我们有信心认为这并非结构性问题；我们的品牌仍然健康，消费者依旧喜爱，我们会继续把控可控事项。其中很大一部分是货架空间：在春季重置中我们的货架份额提升了高个位数。接下来会引进更多 SKU，在全国层面统一规划，同时按事业部做本地化布局。
So, we're continuing to do what we're doing, we're spending. We're spending marketing. We're not taking down marketing. Actually, we spent more money in marketing last year. So, we're going to continue to do what we've done that has made us successful for the last 15 years. And when this consumer comes out and which you think they will, the Hispanic consumer, but also the general market consumer, we're going to be positioned in a really good spot.
因此我们会坚持既定策略，加大投入。营销预算不会削减，事实上去年我们在营销上的花费更多。过去 15 年让我们成功的做法将继续执行。当西语裔消费者以及更广泛的消费者重新回归消费时，我们将占据非常有利的位置。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. And speaking of that, if you think about the improvements and I don't know when you might be expecting some of those improvements for the non-structural items, maybe when? And then, in the context of that, do you expect your beer business will ultimately return to the high-single-digit net sales growth that you've been able to put up for so many years? Or is that just given the base has become so large, is that just unrealistic?
好的，说到这一点，关于这些非结构性因素何时改善你们有什么预期？在此背景下，你们是否认为啤酒业务最终能重回多年保持的高个位数净销售增长？还是说基数已变得庞大，重回高增速不现实？
Jim Sabia
Well, I'll let Garth talk about the future fiscal '26-'28 mark, where we're going to go in terms of revenue, but the base has gotten large. Agree. Totally agree, our base has gotten large where we -- in 2010, we had like a 6% share, and now we have like a 19% share. However, if you think about our share, you think about convenience store, which has five or six stores, beer is -- usually 94% of beer is sold cold. We have about a 24% share of dollars. However, in grocery, we have a 14%. So, there's a 9-point spread from convenience to grocery. That's the opportunity for us.
这点我让加思谈谈 2026 至 2028 财年的收入目标。确实，我们的基数已经很大；2010 年我们市场份额约 6%，现在约 19%。不过，如果看渠道份额，在以冷售啤酒为主的便利店（约 5-6 万家）里，我们的销售额份额约 24%，但在杂货渠道只有 14%，便利与杂货之间相差 9 个百分点，这正是我们的机会。
You go to some of these markets and grocery stores have assortment with a lot of craft and specialty, and a lot of other brands where we're starting to gain some traction, not just with Corona and Modelo, but now we're starting to see Pacifico, Victoria, Familiar, Sunbrew. So, we don't think it's the size of our portfolio and the volume. We just think this consumer needs to get healthy again.
在某些市场，杂货店货架上摆满精酿和特色品牌，而我们正开始取得进展，不仅是 Corona 和 Modelo，如今我们也看到 Pacifico、Victoria、Familiar、Sunbrew 等品牌开始起势。因此问题不在于产品组合或销量规模，而在于消费者重新恢复消费活力。
Garth Hankinson
Yeah. In terms of expectations going forward, I mean, I think that this is one of the changes, if you will, from where we were maybe nine months ago, where we were looking at our own internal analysis, but also augmenting that with our external partners, banking partners and things of that nature. And at that time, we were forecasting an improvement in unemployment. We were forecasting a more meaningful improvement in inflation, and I think everybody was expecting more movement on things like interest rates.
好的，关于前景预期，这与九个月前相比有所变化。当时我们结合内部分析及外部银行伙伴等数据，预测失业率将改善、通胀将出现更显著回落，大家也预期利率会有更多动作。
But where we're at now is we've taken a step back and we've said, hey, look, again, working with our own internal analysis and working with those external partners, we're not really -- over this forecast period, aren't forecasting a big change. I mean, if we look at FY '25, for instance, as we came out of -- or I should say calendar year '25 coming out of calendar year '24, this now feels like a year where we're going to see some stabilization in inflation and in -- on unemployment, but again, GDP growth is expected to be a bit softer than even where we were a few years ago -- or a few months ago.
但现在我们退一步，再次结合内部与外部分析后认为，在这一预测期内不会出现大幅变化。例如 2025 财年（亦即 2025 自然年），看起来将是通胀与失业率趋稳的一年，但 GDP 增速预计会较几个月前的预期更温和。
And then, in calendar year '26, that's where we start to see, well, maybe we'll see some modest improvement in inflation and unemployment and probably some stability in GDP growth. But again, we're just not in a position where we feel comfortable forecasting a change, and that's why we've only given guidance out to FY '28. We're not really prepared to provide guidance beyond that at this point. But I'll also say there's no downside in our guidance either. Like, we're not expecting a recession either. So, we just feel like this is the most prudent way to forecast over this time horizon as we sit here today.
到了 2026 年，也许通胀、失业将出现小幅改善，GDP 增长趋稳。但我们仍不愿过早预测更大的变化，因此只给出了到 2028 财年的指引，目前不打算更远。需要说明的是，我们的指引同样没有嵌入衰退情形。综上，以当前视角看，这样的预测方式最为稳妥。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. Maybe focusing more on the near-term. You mentioned you reported volume declines this most recent quarter for the first time, what'd you say, 59 quarter?
好的，我们聚焦近期表现。你们提到在最近一个季度首次出现销量下滑，是第 59 个季度了吗？
价值投资者喜欢这样的点。
Garth Hankinson
59 quarters, consecutive quarter.
是的，连续 59 个季度。
Bonnie Herzog
Consecutive. Okay. So, obviously, much weaker than we've seen in the past. And your top-line guidance for FY '26 implies flat to low-single-digit volume growth. So, how should we think about quarterly volume growth, especially as I think about this Q1 given the tough comp from the year-ago period? And then, maybe you could touch on, have you seen shipment volume trends improve in March and April and maybe so far in May?
连续增长被打破，明显弱于过去表现。你们对 2026 财年的营收指引暗示销量将持平到低个位数增长。我们应如何理解季度销量增速，尤其是今年第一季度面临去年高基数时？另外，你们是否看到 3 月、4 月乃至 5 月迄今的出货量趋势有所改善？
Jim Sabia
Yeah. I mean, I think, looking, we don't give quarterly numbers, monthly numbers, kind of numbers, right? If you think about fiscal '26 -- fiscal '25 Q1, we grew 6.4%, right? So, that's where we're cycling. Get into the rest of the year, it's not -- we don't cycle as much. As you know, the category coming into the summer, we did not have a good -- the category did not have a good balance of the year last year in 2025, right? But we did in Q1, right?
是的，首先我们并不会披露季度或月度具体数据。回顾 2025 财年第一季度，我们实现了 6.4% 增长，这是本季度的对比基数。进入后续季度，对比基数压力就没那么大。你知道，去年夏季开始整个行业表现不佳，2025 年余下时间类别整体不强，但我们在第一季度的基数较高。
So, we're thinking about what do we control, right? What do we control? And the opportunity we have, like I talked about is the shelf space, is packages, right? We have national SKUs on convenience and grocery, right? On convenience, you get like 3%, maybe 3.5%, grocery get 5%. Because we've gone from a builder, we used to build breweries, where we had to build the breweries to meet demand, now to an operator, we're allowed to introduce more SKUs that don't really slow down the manufacturing.
因此我们关注可控因素。正如我先前提到的，机会体现在货架空间和包装组合上。便利店和超市都有我们的全国性 SKU：便利店占比约 3%～3.5%，杂货渠道约 5%。过去我们像“建设者”一样忙于扩厂以满足需求，如今已转向“运营者”，可以推出更多 SKU 而不影响产能效率。
And that's a big unlock for us, because as you think about all of these markets are created equal in terms of the brand development index, right? California is very different than Chicago, Texas, Florida, New York. So, now we have our three convenience store SKUs or so, five grocery stores or so, but now we're talking to each of the geographic BUs saying, what do you need? And California, right, needs SKUs that are different than what maybe New York or Florida, or Texas needs.
这对我们是一大突破，因为各地区品牌发展指数并不相同，加州与芝加哥、德州、佛州、纽约差异显著。目前我们有 3 个便利店 SKU、5 个杂货店 SKU，但我们正与各区域事业部沟通：你们需要什么？加州的需求或许与纽约、佛州、德州完全不同。
So, going forward, one of the things we're doing is we're going to offer up more SKUs. And we still only have like 160 SKUs compared to our competitors that have over 1,000. So, we're going to do more of that going forward, and we're going to look at price pack architecture. And we're starting to see one of the SKUs that is doing very, very well for us is what we call the 32-ounce bottle. And the benefits of 32-ounce bottle for us is that usually it's \$4.49 or \$4.99 per package. That's a great price point for the consumer that's under a little bit distressed because of the economy. We're looking at 8-ounce cans, looking at 7-ounce bottles, doing more with that.
因此，未来我们会继续增加 SKU。与竞品上千个 SKU 相比，我们只有约 160 个，还有很大空间。同时我们也会优化价规架构。举例来说，表现非常好的 32 盎司瓶装，售价通常是 4.49 或 4.99 美元，非常适合在经济压力下寻求实惠的消费者。我们还在研究 8 盎司易拉罐、7 盎司小瓶等更多包型。
So, we're going to take a holistic approach at national level and then by a regional level, and we're not going to wait to fiscal '27. We're actually going to kick some of this off in September of fiscal '26. So, we're just going to continue doing what we're doing. We have a very tight portfolio. We're still spending money. We're still -- our marketing is still -- we're going to be at 8.5%, 8.6% going forward, right? Well, we did spend more in Q3 of fiscal '25. We're getting back to the normal cadence of Q1, Q2 of this year because it's March, April, May, June, July, August, summer selling season, Cinco de Mayo. So, we'll get back into that cadence of marketing.
所以我们将从全国视角到区域层面采取整体策略，不会等到 2027 财年，一些举措将在 2026 财年 9 月启动。我们的组合精简而有力，仍在投入，营销占比维持 8.5%～8.6%。虽然 2025 财年第三季度投入更多，但今年一二季度将回归常态节奏——3 月至 8 月正值夏季销售季及五月节，我们会保持相应营销节奏。
Bonnie Herzog
But speaking of Cinco de Mayo, since it was just last week, curious how\...
说到五月节，刚过一周，好奇表现如何……
Jim Sabia
It was mismatched if you saw the kind of data, right? It was a Sunday versus a Monday. Like I was at retail. I went to probably 100 stores last two weeks. We were great. And we really -- I mean, I've been doing this for about 17 years now and we look better than we ever have just in terms of the shelf position we have, the incremental SKUs, what's on the floor, the merchandising, the advertising. So, we have above-the-line, which is all the media, then we have below-the-line, which is all the retail tactics. So, we feel good. We just need the consumer feel better.
如果看数据，今年节日与去年对比基数并不一致——今年落在周日，去年在周一。我这两周跑了大概 100 家门店，情况非常好。我从业 17 年，可以说今年的货架位置、增量 SKU、陈列、营销都比以往更优秀。我们的“线上”包括全部媒体投放，“线下”则是零售执行，两方面都做得很好，只需要消费者情绪回暖。
Bonnie Herzog
So, the retailers bought it in?
零售商也乐于配合？
Jim Sabia
Totally.
完全配合。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. And you mentioned, I think, earlier that this spring, shelf space gains, you said high-single-digit?
好的。你们之前提到今年春季货架份额增长，你说是高个位数？
Jim Sabia
High-single-digit, yes.
是的，高个位数。
Bonnie Herzog
And that's on top of...
这是在……基础之上吗？
Jim Sabia
Last year.
去年的增幅之上。
Bonnie Herzog
I remember, 10%, was it 10% or 12%?
我记得是 10%，是 10% 还是 12%？
Jim Sabia
Above 10%.
超过 10%。
Bonnie Herzog
10%. Okay.
10%，好的。
Jim Sabia
Exactly.
没错。
Bonnie Herzog
That's encouraging. Consistent with what we're hearing as well.
这令人鼓舞，也与我们听到的情况一致。
Jim Sabia
Yeah. And what we're seeing like, for example, we have Corona, we have Modelo, Pacifico is starting to really gain some traction with incremental space. But in our highly developed markets like the Californias, the Nevadas, the Texas, some of the Texas markets, we're starting to see Familia and Victoria gain more shelf. So, now you have the \[Blue] (ph) with Modelo, you have Corona Extra, you have Pacifico, now you're starting to see blocking of Familia, Victoria, and then our new brand Sanbro. So, we feel good. We really do feel good about where we are.
是的。具体来看，我们的货架上有 Corona、Modelo，Pacifico 现在也凭借新增空间真正开始发力。在高度成熟的市场，比如加州、内华达、德州，以及德州的部分细分市场，我们开始看到 Familia 和 Victoria 赢得更多货架。因此，现在除了 Modelo 的「蓝带」、Corona Extra、Pacifico，你还能看到 Familia、Victoria 的面块陈列，以及我们的新品牌 Sanbro。我们感觉很不错，确实对当前位置充满信心。
Bonnie Herzog
And then, switching to depletions, how your beer depletion has been tracking since the beginning of this fiscal year? And then, how should we think about the relationship between depletions and volume growth that we're seeing in lovely scanner data given the recent volatility in the relationship with those two data points?
接下来谈谈出库量。今年财年开始以来，你们的啤酒出库趋势如何？此外，鉴于近期出库量与扫描数据销量增速之间的关系波动，我们该如何看待这两项数据的联动？
Jim Sabia
We are -- with our expectations we thought they would be, right? And then, with scanner data, they got to be careful with scanner data, right, because it's about 50% of our mix and a lot is going on, right, in terms of even the amount of stores they survey. So, you have to be just careful looking at Circana every week and saying, okay, where is the volume going to be? Because like I said, the other 50% is independence and on-premise, and all the above.
我们的出库量基本符合预期。至于扫描数据，需要谨慎解读，因为它只覆盖我们约 50% 的销量，而且受调查门店数量等多重因素影响。因此，不能每周盯着 Circana 的数据就断言销量走向；正如我说的，其余 50% 来自独立零售和堂食等渠道。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. So, any change into that gap with scanner data and the depletion...
好的。那么扫描数据与出库数据之间的差距有任何变化吗……
Jim Sabia
It fluctuates back and forth. It's been pretty consistent for many, many years.
两者来回波动，但多年来总体保持相当一致。
Bonnie Herzog
Switching to margins. Key question I've been getting is, as I think about your lower growth algo, this -- in your outlook this year, you still expect to maintain your best-in-class operating margins. So, love to hear more details on how you expect to deliver on that given as I'm thinking about deleverage from lower volume growth, and you've got the reduced offset to incremental depreciation from the ongoing brewery capacity expansions, and then, this is on top of the additional headwinds you're facing from tariffs?
接下来谈利润率。我收到的核心问题是：在你们将增速模型下调的情况下，今年仍预计维持业内领先的营业利润率。鉴于销量增长放缓导致杠杆效应下降、酿酒产能扩张带来的新增折旧抵消减少，再加上关税带来的额外逆风，你们打算如何实现这一目标？希望听到更多细节。
Garth Hankinson
Yeah, Bonnie. So, I'll start, and Jim can weigh in. But in many respects, the answer is a little bit boring because I think it's kind of consistent with what we've talked about in the past. I mean, as you referenced, 39% to 40% operating margins are best-in-class. And we've been able to achieve those in spite of year-over-year headwinds because of the tailwinds that we control.
好的，邦妮。我先回答，吉姆随后补充。在很多方面，这个答案可能有些无趣，因为与我们过去讨论的内容基本一致。正如你提到的，39% 到 40% 的营业利润率在行业中首屈一指。尽管面临逐年逆风，我们仍能达到这一水平，靠的就是我们能够掌控的顺风因素。
Garth Hankinson
And so, first of all, tailwinds that we'll continue to benefit from will be some volume growth. The expectation would be some volume growth as well as the 1% to 2% pricing impacts that we feel good about the ability to drive that kind of pricing even in the current environment because of the very methodical and disciplined approach that we take.
首先，我们将继续受益的顺风包括一定的销量增长。我们预计销量会有小幅提升，同时还能实现 1% 到 2% 的提价。凭借我们审慎且有章法的做法，即使在当前环境下，也有信心推进这类价格动作。
Garth Hankinson
We've always had a robust set of efficiency gains and cost containment initiatives in place. We've talked a lot about that in the last couple of years, just because we've been able to successfully claw back a lot of the outsized inflationary gains we saw. But outside of that, we always have a robust set of projects in place to help us manage through the inflationary pressures. And you heard Jim earlier reference this whole mindset shift from being a builder to an operator that will continue to serve us well as we go forward, as we manage efficiencies and manage costs. So, those will be the tailwinds.
我们一直有一整套强有力的效率提升与成本控制措施。过去几年我们多次提到这些，因为借此成功抵消了相当一部分过高的通胀影响。除此之外，我们还在持续推进一系列项目来应对未来的通胀压力。你们早前听到吉姆提到过，我们的思维已从“建设者”转向“运营者”，这一转变也将帮助我们在提高效率和控制成本方面继续受益。这些都是顺风因素。
Garth Hankinson
I mean, headwinds will continue to be inflation, continue to be growing into the capacity that we're building. So, the fixed overhead drag inclusive of depreciation. And then, again, we mentioned tariffs this year, but we think we can manage those headwinds effectively through the -- managing the -- those things that will be tailwinds for us.
当然，逆风仍包括通胀压力，以及我们正在投产的新产能需要逐步爬坡带来的固定成本拖累（包括折旧）。此外，今年的关税也是一大逆风，但我们认为可以借助前述顺风因素有效对冲。
Garth Hankinson
And you mentioned the depreciation impact with lower volume. I mean, I think that this is again a testament to how we're managing the business now. We've talked about this, a modular approach to adding capacity. So, we've been able to sort of delay, if you will, turning on capacity to more meet the near-term demand. And so that's provided to be not quite the headwind that we would have -- otherwise would have had.
你提到在销量放缓情况下折旧的影响。我认为这再次证明了我们当前的经营方式。我们采用模块化扩产，这让我们可以推迟部分产能上线，更好地匹配短期需求，因此折旧带来的阻力不至于像过去那样大。
Garth Hankinson
And then, you mentioned tariffs a little bit. Fortunately, we're USMCA compliant. And so, currently, the only impact we have is on the aluminum content of our cans. And that's included in our most recent guidance and we think that we can manage through that.
你还提到关税。幸运的是，我们符合《美墨加协定》原产规则，目前受到影响的主要是易拉罐中的铝材成本。这部分已计入最新指引，我们有信心加以应对。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. Moving on to marketing, you touched on this. I think about it as a driver of beer margin to some extent, you made incremental marketing investments in Q3 and Q4 of FY '25 and this is again in your beer portfolio, but those, as you touched on, were challenging quarters and now you're expecting marketing relative to sales for the next, I guess, three fiscal years to be below both of those quarters and also lower than FY '25 as a whole. So, how much of this is due to sort of efficiencies you're getting within the marketing or -- and then ultimately, what is the right level of marketing spend for your business do you think?
好的，接下来谈营销。你们刚才已经提到过这一点。我认为营销在一定程度上是提升啤酒利润率的驱动因素。你们在 2025 财年的第三、第四季度对啤酒组合进行了额外的营销投资，但正如你所说，那两个季度相当具有挑战性。而现在你们预计未来三个财年的营销费用占销售比重将低于那两季度，也低于整个 2025 财年。那么，其中有多少是由于营销效率提升？最终，你们认为业务的最佳营销支出水平是多少？
Jim Sabia
Yeah, to your point, Bonnie, we did invest in our fiscal '25 in Q3 and Q4 incrementally with college football, NFL. We feel very, very good about our marketing, right, and what percentage we are. We do a lot of modeling. We have marketing, mix modeling. We know what medium tool, what's the ROI, what's the marginal ROI, by vehicle, by brand, and we've been doing this for many, many years. So, we have a good handle on the amount of money we need to drive top-line, right?
没错，邦妮。正如你所说，我们在 2025 财年第三、第四季度针对大学橄榄球、NFL 等赛事追加了营销投入。我们对营销及其占比非常有信心。我们做了大量建模，包括营销组合模型，清楚不同媒介工具的投资回报率和边际回报率，按渠道、按品牌都有衡量。这些年我们一直这么做，所以很清楚为了推动收入增长需要投入多少资金。
So, we continue to look at efficiencies. We hired a new media agency using more -- it's really interesting in this space, I'm sure you know the media space, there's efficiency, and digital and social media can be extremely efficient, but you're talking to a smaller set of cohorts and there is effectiveness and that's becomes the college football, the NFL, where you have big, big media and you can sell more cases, but it's not as efficient. So, this agency has helped us figure it out what is the mix between kind of the old linear TV versus social versus digital.
因此我们持续关注效率。我们新聘了一家媒体代理商，更充分利用数字和社交媒体。你也了解媒体领域：数字社交渠道效率极高，但受众面较窄；而大学橄榄球、NFL 这类“大媒体”覆盖广，能带来更多销量，却不够高效。新的代理公司帮助我们找到了传统电视、社交、数字之间的最佳组合。
人工智能和推荐引擎的迅速进步让广告变得更有效率。
But we've always said, Garth and Bill always support, we need more money to go back because we feel like, look, the ROIs are good, and we spend X, the return is going to be Y, and you get residual value. I think that's been part of our success, especially with a brand like Modelo Especial that we only started advertising on general market TV advertising eight years ago. And what happens is, year one, you get 100%, year two, you get 66%, year three, you get 33%, and then you get that flywheel going. And we're like if you think about the media spend, Modelo Especial has the #1 share of voice, and #2 is Corona Extra in terms of share of voice.
我们一直都说，只要回报率好，加思和比尔就会支持增加投放：投入 X，就能带来 Y，并且还具有持续效应。这是我们成功的重要原因，尤其是 Modelo Especial 这样一个品牌——我们八年前才开始在大众电视上做广告。第一年投入带来 100% 效果，第二年 66%，第三年 33%，随后飞轮效应就形成了。如今论媒体投入的声量，Modelo Especial 排第一，Corona Extra 排第二。
So, we're investing back in the brands, and we feel like if 8.5%, 8.6% isn't enough, we go back to Garth and Bill, we show them the business case, and we continue to invest because we need top-line. Top-line growth is so critical for so many reasons, and that's our strategy. We will continue to keep our brand health, continue to invest. And we have a very tight portfolio, right? We have brands that Modelo and Corona over 80% of our volumes. So, we don't have a long-tail where we need to invest money all over the place, but those two brands and the size of those brands, they're very, very efficient as we spend in the year.
因此我们会持续回投品牌。如果 8.5%、8.6% 的投销比不够，我们就向加思和比尔提交商业案例，继续加码，因为我们需要收入增长。顶线增长出于多方面原因至关重要，这就是我们的战略。我们会保持品牌健康并持续投资。我们的品牌组合十分精简，Modelo 和 Corona 占总销量 80% 以上，没有需要到处撒钱的长尾品牌，而这两大品牌体量庞大，使得年度投放非常高效。
Garth Hankinson
And just to add very briefly to that, I mean, I think because we do get this question a lot from investors and from analysts, right? As Jim just said, we want to grow the top-line. We think that that's the #1 priority. We're not going to sacrifice top-line growth for bottom-line margin. So, said differently, we don't use marketing as kind of like what's the back solve, so to speak, to generate the 39% to 40% marketing.
再简单补充一下，因为投资者和分析师经常问到这一点。正如吉姆刚才所说，我们的首要任务是推动营收增长，我们不会为了利润率而牺牲顶线。因此，换句话说，我们不会把营销当成“倒推”工具来硬凑出 39% 至 40% 的利润率。
I think, as Jim said, we debate this a lot as a management team to what's the right amount of marketing. And I think to the management team's credit, when Jim and team come to us and say, hey, we think we've got a really good return-generating opportunity here, we fund that. And conversely, his team has great discipline, and they don't -- they won't suggest or commit to something that isn't -- it doesn't drive a lot of return. They won't spend for the sake of spending.
正如吉姆所说，管理层经常就“合适的营销投入”进行讨论。值得肯定的是，当吉姆团队告诉我们有高回报机会时，我们就会拨款；相反，没有回报的项目他们也不会提或去做，不会为了花钱而花钱。
Bonnie Herzog
All right. That's helpful. Let's shift to your core beer brands. Now, Modelo Especial hasn't been immune to the recent slowdown in growth and in the industry and then just more recently, \[Mic Ultra] really seems to have become a challenger for the top share gainer spot. So, how are you thinking about the remaining growth opportunity for Especial? And what is your strategy for the brand, given the challenging consumer and competitive backdrop?
好的，这很有帮助。我们来谈谈核心啤酒品牌。Modelo Especial 近期的增长放缓，同业也在放缓，而近期 \[Mic Ultra] 似乎成为份额增长最快的挑战者。那么，你们如何看待 Especial 剩余的增长空间？鉴于当前消费者和竞争环境充满挑战，你们对该品牌的策略是什么？
Jim Sabia
So, as you think about Modelo Especial, in Los Angeles, we have a 22%, 23% share, right? So, that brand is very healthy, a lot of shelf space, right? We're looking for the rest of the portfolio to get growth out of a state like California. Still growing with Modelo on 7-ounce and some other SKUs. On-premise is a huge opportunity for Modelo Especial. I mean, draft handles are so incredibly important. We're the fourth-largest draft handle in the country. So, there's so much room there. But as you move East, coming from California with Modelo Especial, and as you go into Chicago and Texas and New York and New Jersey, and Florida, Modelo Especial still has so much runway in terms of distribution.
谈到 Modelo Especial，在洛杉矶我们的份额有 22%-23%。品牌非常健康，货架空间充足。我们希望组合的其他品牌也能在加州获得增长；Modelo 的 7 盎司等 SKU 仍在增长。堂食渠道对 Especial 是巨大机会，生啤把手至关重要，我们是全美第四大生啤把手品牌，因此还有大量空间。向东推进时，从加州到芝加哥、德州、纽约、新泽西、佛罗里达，Modelo Especial 在分销方面仍有很大跑道。
Now, if you get into the Midwest, we call it like the big 10 SEC states, the velocity for pointed distribution isn't as high naturally as, say, Dallas or Houston or Los Angeles, right, because of the demographics that are there, but we still have so much runway for simple and effective distribution in the Midwest.
至于中西部（我们称之为“大十联盟/SEC 州”），由于人口结构不同，每点分销的动销速度自然不如达拉斯、休斯顿或洛杉矶那样高，但在中西部我们仍有大量简单且高效的分销机会。
So, we are very -- one of the things that I think benefits us dramatically with Modelo Especial is, when we came out with this campaign of the fighting spirit almost seven years ago, we've been very, very consistent. So, what happens is that you build so much equity up when you run the ads, whether it's the music or the voiceover, the minute the consumer hears that song or hears that voiceover, they know it's Modelo Especial. So, the fact that we've maintained the campaign, the positioning of the brand with the fighting spirit. Now, the campaign will evolve with different scenarios and different scenes, but it's really, really effective to gain the share of mind with the consumers. And the emotional connection, especially with the Hispanic consumers that they have for Modelo Especial.
我认为 Modelo Especial 的一大优势在于，我们近七年前推出“Fighting Spirit”广告战役后始终保持高度一致。广告中的配乐或旁白一响，消费者立刻就知道是 Modelo Especial，这为品牌积累了巨大资产。我们坚持“Fighting Spirit”的品牌定位，虽然广告场景不断演变，但极其有效地占据了消费者心智，尤其在西语裔消费者中建立了情感链接。
So, we feel good about the growth of Modelo Especial. We feel like it's got runway to go, more price packed architecture. Draft, like I said, is critical. You walk into a bar and we know the first thing consumers do, they look at the handles. If you don't have a handle, right, it's like, okay, it has to be really, really top-of-mind, they have to look for it down there. There's so much opportunity for this brand still as we move from west to east that we're going to compete, right? And we're going to continue to do what we're doing.
因此我们对 Modelo Especial 的增长前景很有信心，认为仍有跑道可走，包括更多价规组合。正如我说的，生啤把手至关重要，消费者走进酒吧首先看把手；如果没有把手，品牌必须极度出名才会被顾客主动寻找。随着我们从西向东推进，品牌仍有巨大机会，我们会继续执行既定策略，全力竞争。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. As much as that's a focus, I want to ask about Corona Extra, which is back to, I guess, low-single-digit declines. So, do you have a plan to return that brand to growth? And is returning it to growth sort of a requirement to hit your guidance this year? Is that -- like what's implied in your top-line guidance?
好的。虽然这一直是关注重点，但我想问问 Corona Extra，目前其销量似乎回落到低个位数下滑。你们有没有让这个品牌重回增长的计划？把它重新带回增长是否是今年完成业绩指引的必要前提？也就是说，你们的营收指引是否隐含了这一点？
Jim Sabia
The goal is to return it to growth, but it's not mandatory to hit our guidance without it, right? So, you think about Corona Extra, it's been the number one endpoint since 1999, right? And I'll go back to California. I'll start in the East. Corona Extra is still the #1 beer brand in New York City. #1 beer brand, right, by volume. It's the #1 beer brand in Miami, right? So, it still has its pockets of New York, Miami, very largest beer brand.
我们的目标是让其重回增长，但即使暂时做不到，也不影响完成我们的指引。Corona Extra 自 1999 年以来一直是终端销量冠军。先从东部说起：在纽约市，Corona Extra 仍是销量第一的啤酒；在迈阿密也是第一。因此在纽约、迈阿密等地区，它依旧是最大的啤酒品牌。
Now, you go out to California, where you have the growth of Modelo, but you also have the growth of Pacifico, right? So, you have the cannibalization. Yes, we do source from our own volume, as you would think, right? So, the volume that Pacifico is sourcing from Corona in California is probably 30%, right? So, besides -- so you get the cannibalization, and as Pacifico gets a little bit bigger, right, it's sourcing some from Corona. However, so you have cannibalization, then you have your one to two pricing, which is a drag.
再到加州，这里既有 Modelo 的增长，也有 Pacifico 的增长，导致一定程度的内部蚕食。正如你所预料，Pacifico 在加州大约有 30% 的增量来自于 Corona 的转移。除了这种蚕食外，Corona Extra 每年 1%–2% 的提价也形成了一定阻力。
So, those are the drags, but what are the drivers? The drivers are getting back to the essence of the brand, and the marketing team did a great job of getting back to the beach, getting back to the essence of the brand. And then, as we think about it, what are the DMAs that we have to win in, and do we take more of a regional approach? Always do some national overlays, but take a more tactical regional approach, and then, what do we do with price back architecture? Are there opportunities with 7-ounce, 12-packs, 8-ounce cans?
这些是拖累因素，那推动因素是什么？关键是回到品牌本质。营销团队已把重点重新放在“海滩”这一核心意象上。接下来要确定的是必须赢下哪些 DMA（指定市场区域），以及是否采取更强的区域化策略：在保持全国投放的同时，实施更具战术性的地方策略；另外要优化价规架构，例如 7 盎司、12 听装组合、8 盎司小罐等是否有机会。
So, there's a lot we can do with Corona Extra, but making our plan short-term, long-term is not predicated getting back to flat.
因此，Corona Extra 还有很多动作可以做，但我们的短期和长期规划并不以其“立刻转正”为前提。
Bonnie Herzog
Okay. And it's good that you also mentioned Pacifico and how well that brand is doing. So, a question for me is, given the resilient success of Pacifico, why are you not accelerating the expansion of that brand?
好的。另外你提到 Pacifico 表现出色。我想问的是，既然 Pacifico 增长韧性十足，为何不进一步加速扩张？
Jim Sabia
Oh, we are. I mean, we're up to 25 million cases. We're spending more money than we ever have. The thing about Pacifico, which we get really excited about is, it has the formats to get there with a beer brand. You think about Modelo, it has bottles, cans and drafts. Corona really is like 89% bottles, right, 11% cans, and very, very, very little draft.
其实我们正在加速。Pacifico 目前年销量已达 2,500 万箱，投入也创历史新高。让我们兴奋的是，Pacifico 拥有与 Modelo 相同的全包型能力：瓶装、听装和生啤。相比之下，Corona 中 89% 为瓶装，11% 为听装，生啤份额极小。
Well, Pacifico has all three, too, right? We started with bottles, then we went to cans. And now, the big unlock for us too, besides simple and effective distribution east kind of -- east of Mississippi here is draft. And we're starting to get handles. We're starting to get awareness, because you need to walk into a bar and see this handle and say, what is that? That's Pacifico. I've heard about that. You know what, it's $8. In New York, it is $11.50 to $12, but most markets, it's like $8 a pint, and you try it.
Pacifico 同样具备三种包型：最初做瓶装，后来推听装。现在除了在密西西比河以东实施简捷高效的分销外，生啤也是关键突破点——我们正在铺设把手，提高知名度。顾客进酒吧看到把手会问“这是什么？”——那就是 Pacifico。我听说过，价格 8 美元一品脱，在纽约是 11.5–12 美元，多数市场 8 美元，就会尝试。
So, that's where Pacifico, we're going to get even more aggressive going forward. And if you think about that brand, the brand has been around since 1900, and the equity it has with the color yellow, it really, really starts to stand out. And it's a great liquid. It really is a great liquid. It's an easy drinking lager, and we're getting a lot of distribution in craft bars, because it's easier to drink than some of the crafts out there.
因此，未来我们会对 Pacifico 采取更激进的推广。这一品牌自 1900 年诞生，标志性的黄色资产使其极具辨识度。酒液本身也很出色，是一款易饮型拉格，因而在精酿酒吧的铺货正在快速增加——相比某些精酿，Pacifico 更顺口。
Bonnie Herzog
All right. As much as I could keep talking about beer, let's switch to wine & spirits. And a key question, maybe for you, Garth, is why don't you pursue a full divestiture of your wine-spirits business? And then, why are you certain that the divestiture will finally support better performance, sorry, given that we've kind of heard this from you before, so yeah, and then that didn't materialize? So, why is it this time it's going to work, and then why don't you consider getting rid of all of it?
好的，啤酒的话题先到这里，我们来谈谈葡萄酒与烈酒业务。加思，关键问题是：为什么不将这块业务全部出售？另外，你们为何确信这次出售真的能带来更好表现？说实话，以前也听你们这么说过，但并未完全实现。那么，这次为什么行得通？又为什么不干脆全部剥离？
Garth Hankinson
Yeah. So, look, I would say that first of all, once the transaction is behind us, the portfolio that remains is going to be a portfolio that's more strategically aligned with not only where the consumer is, but where we expect the consumer to continue to be. And I think we can acknowledge that there's been a bifurcation, if you will, in the wine category for those brands priced below $15 and those priced above $15, and our center of gravity going forward will be clearly above $15.
首先，这笔交易完成后，留下的产品组合将更符合当前及未来消费者需求的战略方向。我们都看到葡萄酒市场已分化——15 美元以下与以上两个价位段泾渭分明，而我们未来的重心将明确放在 15 美元以上档位。
If we look at the portfolio that we're divesting and look at the 52 weeks that ends that kind of correspond with our fiscal year, mainstream wine was down 7%, premium wine was down 1%, and those trends were worse in Q4 than on a full-year basis. And then, you juxtapose that to the portfolio we're keeping, the single largest brand in our portfolio post-transaction will be Kim Crawford, and that outperformed the premium segment in Q4. And if you think about the portfolio in total that we're keeping, that had depletion growth rate of about 4% in Q4. So, it's definitely a portfolio that's got some more tailwinds to it than it is prior to the transaction.
如果看拟出售组合对应的 52 周数据，大众价位葡萄酒下降 7%，高端酒下降 1%，而且第四季度跌幅比全年更大。对比之下，交易完成后我们保留的最大品牌将是 Kim Crawford，在 Q4 的表现优于高端细分市场。整体来看，保留组合在 Q4 的出货增长约 4%。也就是说，新组合比交易前拥有更多顺风。
And then, if you just think about performance going forward, the segments again that we are going to be participating in wine and spirits. Their expected growth rate over the next couple of years is in the low- to mid-single-digits. So, we think we can generate that kind of growth, albeit we got to get through FY ’26. FY ’26 very much is a transitional year for Wine and Spirits, and you won’t see the benefits of the transaction necessarily in our results, and you saw that in the guidance that we provided.
向前看，我们所专注的葡萄酒和烈酒细分预计未来几年将维持低至中个位数增速。我们相信可以实现这一水平，不过 2026 财年将是过渡期，交易利好未必当年就能体现在业绩里，这一点已经体现在我们的指引中。
What we're facing in FY ’26, that you'll see in the results is, in FY ’25, we did benefit from a $34 million distributor payment related to the contractual obligations of that. So that was a bit of a tailwind for us in FY ’25. And then, in FY ’26 — by the way, that $34 million in FY ’25 hit both the top and the bottom line. In FY ’26, we have about a $56 million top-line hit and a $41 million bottom-line hit that's a negative for us, a headwind for us, if you will, that are associated with financial or volume-related contractual obligations. So, those two things kind of occurred this year that will certainly make this year not look as good as what will look like once we get past the transaction.
2025 财年我们因履行分销合同收到 3,400 万美元付款，成为顺风，计入了收入和利润。2026 财年则相反：相关财务或销量条款将带来约 5,600 万美元收入冲击和 4,100 万美元利润冲击，形成逆风。因此今年的表现看起来会逊色，但一旦度过交易过渡期，情况将明显改善。
I think it's important to note too that, that benefit that we saw in FY ’25 kind of happened throughout the year across the quarters versus the headwind that we're facing this year will happen — occur mostly in our first fiscal quarter. But again, once we're through this and given the segments that we compete in, we're confident that we can have a portfolio that has low-single-digit top-line growth and bottom-line margins in the low to mid-20s.
需要说明的是，2025 财年的顺风在全年各季度均有体现，而2026 财年的逆风主要集中在第一财季。一旦跨过这道坎，结合我们所处的细分市场，我们有信心实现低个位数营收增长、并保持 20% 出头至中段的利润率水平。
And then, to your question around the totality, as we've always said, like, look…
至于你问为何不彻底剥离，我们一贯的观点是，事实是……
Bonnie Herzog:
No buyers...
没有买家……
有很多失败的投资项目，BRK介入以后或许会好一些。
Garth Hankinson:
There's no -- we look at anything in the portfolio and we'll continue to do that, but we feel good about the portfolio we have going forward.
并不是这样——我们会持续审视投资组合中的所有资产，但对未来保留的资产组合感到满意。
Bonnie Herzog:
All right. We have just a little bit of time. I want to touch on capital allocation. I know you've recently been active in the debt market, so your leverage is up just a little bit above that 3 times. Are you expecting to go back to or below, I should say, the 3 times target? Or are you going to manage it closer to the 3 times ratio that we've seen in the past? Just trying to think through that. And then, in the context of that, how do we think about buybacks -- share buybacks?
好的，我们时间不多。我想谈谈资本配置。我知道你们最近活跃于债券市场，所以杠杆率稍微高于 3 倍。你们是否计划降回甚至低于 3 倍目标？还是会像过去那样把杠杆维持在接近 3 倍？我在梳理这一点。同时，考虑到这一点，我们该如何看待股票回购？
Garth Hankinson:
Yeah. I mean, I think like -- so you're right, we've been in the debt markets as we've got some debt that we've got -- it's come through over the course of the next 12 months or so. Our capital allocation priorities don't change. We're committed to be an investment grade. We think that the right leverage target for us is 3 times. So, that doesn't change. We're committed to a 30% payout on our dividend. We're going to -- we're still committed to CapEx in the beer business over the -- through FY '28, about \$2.2 billion, \$2.4 billion in total CapEx, about \$2 billion of that is in the beer business.
是的，你说得对，我们近期发债主要是为未来 12 个月到期的债务做再融资。我们的资本配置优先顺序没有改变：保持投资级评级，认为 3 倍杠杆是合适目标，这不会改变；坚持 30% 的股息支付率；在啤酒业务上仍计划到 2028 财年共投入约 22 亿至 24 亿美元资本开支，其中约 20 亿投向啤酒。
Garth Hankinson:
And then, buybacks. I mean, I think that we just announced in April a new authorization from our Board for \$4 billion that has a term to it that ends in FY '28. Look, we're going to continue to maintain the same discipline and opportunistic approach we've had the last couple of years, right? So, the intent is to be into the -- in the market in a programmatic way, but also have that flexibility to be opportunistic where we think -- where we see dislocations in share price. So, I think that this is part of the underappreciated part of the Constellation story. So, I hope people continue to pay attention to it.
至于回购——四月董事会刚批准新的 40 亿美元授权，期限至 2028 财年。我们会延续过去几年的纪律性和灵活性：保持计划性入市，同时在股价出现错位时抓住机会。我认为这是星座品牌故事中经常被低估的一环，希望大家继续关注。
Bonnie Herzog:
So, right now might be that opportunity, this location possibly. All right. Thank you so much. That's all we have time for. I appreciate it.
那现在或许就是这种错位机会。好，非常感谢。我们今天时间到此，感谢你们的分享。
Garth Hankinson:
Thank you.
谢谢。
Bonnie Herzog:
Thanks, everyone.
谢谢大家。
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