Operator

Good morning. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase's 2025 Investor Day. This call is being recorded. \[Operator Instructions] We will now go live to the presentation.

接线员

早上好。欢迎参加摩根大通2025年投资者日。本次电话会议正在录音。\[操作说明]我们现在将进入现场直播演示环节。

Good morning. Please welcome to the stage, Mikael Grubb.

早上好，请欢迎Mikael Grubb登台。

Mikael Grubb   Head of Investor Relations

Hey, good morning, once again. It's my great pleasure to welcome you to our Investor Day. First, I want to thank all of the sell-siders and investors with whom we engage regularly and whose questions and ponderings were critical to shaping today's content. This year's volatile backdrop did provide some particular challenges. I woke up early this morning to check my social media feed to make sure we didn't have to hit F9 on any of the many analysis you'll see here today.

Mikael Grubb 投资者关系主管

大家早上好，再次欢迎各位参加我们的投资者日。我很高兴能在此向大家表示欢迎。首先，我要感谢我们经常互动的所有卖方分析师和投资者，你们的提问和思考对今天内容的形成起到了关键作用。今年的市场波动背景确实带来了一些特别的挑战。今天一早我就查看了社交媒体，确保我们不需要临时撤回今天将展示的任何分析内容。

Tomorrow is also our annual meeting, and we are lucky today to be joined by our Board of Directors. For the stewardship experts in the audience, I also want to thank you for your thoughtful and independent engagement during this proxy season.

明天也是我们的年度股东大会，今天我们很荣幸迎来了董事会成员。在座的治理专家们，我也要感谢你们在本次委托投票季节中提供的独立、深入的意见。

A few logistical points. Q\&A, as per usual, we will have a full session of Q\&A with Jamie at the end of the morning. Hopefully, that should be enough at least for Mike Mayo's questions. But fear not, we will also have time for Q\&A after each individual presentation.

有几点安排说明。问答环节依然照旧，我们将在今天上午结束前与Jamie进行一整场问答。希望这足以应对Mike Mayo的问题。但不用担心，每场个人演讲结束后我们也将留出时间进行问答。

Of course, please review the disclaimer about forward-looking statements.

当然，请大家务必阅读关于前瞻性声明的免责声明。

And now for the first speaker of the day. A few of you referred to him as the professor. But the course he does not teach is pablum. So please listen carefully, and that includes turning your cell phones to silent and faced down.

接下来是今天的第一位演讲者。有些人称他为“教授”，但他讲授的绝不是空洞乏味的内容。所以请认真聆听，也请把你的手机调至静音并屏幕朝下。

Welcome, CFO, Jeremy Barnum.

欢迎首席财务官 Jeremy Barnum 登台。

Operator

Welcome to the stage, Jeremy Barnum.

接线员

欢迎 Jeremy Barnum 登台。

Jeremy Barnum   Executive VP & CFO

All right. Thank you, Mikael. Good morning, everyone. Before I jump in, just a housekeeping item. I actually have to go to my daughter's college graduation right after I get off stage. So I won't be here for the Q\&A at the end of the session. I think you're amply served more than enough people to answer your questions then, don't need me. But we have budgeted a small amount of time right after I finish to handle any sort of super burning questions that you might have that need to be answered immediately, so we can do that right after I'm done.

Jeremy Barnum 执行副总裁兼首席财务官

好的，谢谢你，Mikael。大家早上好。进入正题之前，先说明一件事：我等一下要赶去参加我女儿的大学毕业典礼，所以无法参加会议结束时的问答环节。但请放心，现场有很多同事可以很好地回答你们的问题，不一定非得我来。不过我演讲结束后我们会留出一点时间，如果你们有特别紧急的问题需要马上解答，可以在我讲完后提问。

So with that, let's get started. You'll note that the next few slides will look familiar to many of you, and that's not a coincidence. Consistency is part of the strategy. And so to reiterate some of the key points of our strategic framework. We have exceptional franchises that are customer centric, and our unwavering principles position us well to support clients, customers and communities through any environment. We're focused on generating long-term shareholder value, which you'll hear more about from me shortly. And sustainable business practices, broadly defined, will continue to have an important role in our strategy as we take a rational and commercial approach to supporting our clients and growing our business.

那么我们现在开始。接下来的几页幻灯片，许多朋友可能会觉得眼熟，这并不是巧合。保持一致性正是我们战略的一部分。借此机会重申一下我们的战略框架重点：我们拥有以客户为中心的卓越业务平台，坚定不移的原则使我们能够在任何环境中支持客户、消费者和社区。我们致力于创造长期股东价值，稍后我会详细讲解。同时，我们将继续秉持理性和商业化的方式推动可持续经营实践，这在我们支持客户、拓展业务的过程中仍将发挥重要作用。

The left-hand side of the page highlights how 2024 was another year of record revenue, even excluding the gains from the Visa B shares. And looking at recent history shows the balanced contribution across the lines of business and revenue types.

页面左侧强调了2024年是又一个创纪录的营收年份，即使不计入Visa B类股份带来的收益。回顾近年的表现，我们在各条业务线和收入类型方面都保持了良好的平衡贡献。

The right side illustrates the breadth and depth of our franchise. Across our 3 lines of business, we can meet individual and corporate needs throughout their life cycle, and we're uniquely positioned to differentiate ourselves when individual and corporate needs overlap.

右侧展示了我们业务平台的广度与深度。依托三大核心业务线，我们能够全生命周期地满足个人和企业客户的需求，尤其是在个人与企业需求交汇时，我们具有独特的竞争优势。

Calling out some key metrics. We serve 84 million U.S. customers. We have \$4 trillion in AUM. Over 90% of Fortune 500 companies do business with us, and we operate in over 100 markets globally. As we've said before, you cannot outgrow us.

来看一些关键指标：我们服务8,400万美国客户，管理资产总规模达4万亿美元；超过90%的《财富》500强企业是我们的客户；我们在全球100多个市场开展业务。正如我们一贯所说：你无法超越我们。

We have leading positions in most of our businesses, in part, as a result of significant share growth over the last 10 years. In CCB, we have 11.3% U.S. retail deposit share, and we have #1 share in 22 of the top 125 markets. The Commercial & Investment Bank has unrivaled scale and can serve clients end to end while continuing to grow share across Investment Banking, Markets, Treasury Services and Securities Services. In AWM, we've had 21 straight years of positive net inflows, and we have \$5.9 trillion of client assets.

我们在多数业务领域都处于领先地位，这在很大程度上得益于过去10年市场份额的持续增长。在消费者与社区银行业务（CCB）方面，我们在美国零售存款市场的份额为11.3%，并在125个主要市场中的22个市场排名第一。在商业与投资银行业务方面，我们具有无可匹敌的规模优势，能够全方位服务客户，并持续在投行、市场、现金管理与证券服务等领域扩大份额。在资产与财富管理（AWM）方面，我们连续21年实现净资金流入，目前管理客户资产达5.9万亿美元。

As we emphasize on the right, our leading positions are at the root of a strategy that has produced exceptional returns for shareholders over time.

正如我们在右侧所强调的，这些领先地位正是我们长期为股东带来卓越回报的战略基础。

You know the financial performance story well. We have consistently produced best-in-class results. Both the absolute and relative results are exceptional. The previous page showed total return, and this page shows tangible book value per share CAGR, both of which are more than 2x that of peers.

我们的财务表现大家都很熟悉。我们始终交出业内一流的成绩，不论从绝对值还是相对比较来看都十分出色。上一页展示了总回报，本页则显示了每股有形账面价值的年复合增长率（CAGR），两项指标均是同行业平均水平的两倍以上。

While we are incredibly proud of these results, our focus is on the future, both operating in the near term and being prepared for the long term. We will continue to invest, maintain discipline and push ourselves to keep getting better.

尽管我们对这些成果感到非常自豪，但我们的重心始终放在未来，既关注短期运营，也做好长期准备。我们将继续投入、保持纪律性，并持续追求卓越。

This slide covers a number of aspects of our current operating environment, which Jamie covered extensively in his Chairman's letter. For today's purposes, suffice it to say, we do have reason to hope for an improved working relationship between the government, regulatory bodies and the banking industry. And while we're seeing some encouraging early signs, there's a lot of work to do. More on that later.

这一页涵盖了我们当前运营环境的多个方面，Jamie已在董事长信中详细阐述。就今天而言，我们有理由期待政府、监管机构与银行业之间的合作关系有所改善。虽然目前出现了一些令人鼓舞的早期迹象，但仍有大量工作要做，稍后我们会进一步探讨。

More broadly, while the news flow has been better recently, the evolving tariff environment, combined with the preexisting geopolitical tensions, adds significant uncertainty into the economic outlook. And the combination of inflation and large fiscal deficits may constrain the available policy responses in ways that further increase the risk. So in that context, let's talk about our financial outlook.

更广泛来看，尽管近期的消息面有所改善，但不断变化的关税环境叠加已有的地缘政治紧张局势，仍给经济前景带来了巨大不确定性。与此同时，通胀和庞大的财政赤字也可能限制政策响应空间，从而进一步加剧风险。在这种背景下，我们来谈谈财务展望。

In terms of NII ex Markets, we've assessed the various drivers over the last few days and have decided not to change our guidance from approximately \$90 billion. However, we do want to acknowledge that the outlook is probably slightly better than it was at first quarter earnings. You may remember that at the time we discussed how the increase in the number of expected cuts was offset by some other factors, which on balance, slightly worsened the outlook but not by enough to warrant changing guidance.

就市场业务以外的净利息收入（NII ex Markets）而言，我们过去几天评估了多项驱动因素，决定维持约900亿美元的指引不变。不过我们也承认，当前的前景可能略好于第一季度财报时的预期。当时我们曾提到，尽管市场预期的降息次数增加，但这一利好被其他一些因素抵消，总体上略微拉低了前景，但尚不足以调整指引。

As we sit here today, some of those headwinds are now tailwinds. The forward curve is back to only having 2 cuts, and the other effects are relatively muted. When you combine that with what we see in the actuals so far this year, we think the full year 2025 might end up a little better, maybe by \$1 billion. But the yield curve has been very volatile recently, and we'd like to see things settle down before sharpening our pencils. So we'll reassess the formal NII guidance for you in 8 weeks at second quarter earnings.

而到了今天，部分原本的逆风因素已经转为顺风。利率期货曲线目前仅反映出两次降息预期，其他变量的影响也相对温和。结合今年以来的实际表现来看，我们认为2025年全年可能略有改善，增幅或许在10亿美元左右。但近期收益率曲线波动较大，我们希望等到情况稳定后再做精细估算。因此，我们将在8周后的第二季度财报中重新评估正式的NII指引。

One driver that's relevant to that outlook is the impact of yield-seeking customer behavior on the interest versus noninterest-bearing deposit trend. To help us sell the story better, we've reclassified certain deposits to make the numbers more intuitive relative to what's in the supplement and created what you might call an economic view of the trends. Focusing on this view, which is the purple line, you see that at the beginning of the rate cycle, there wasn't much change. But as the Fed started hiking more aggressively, we saw increased movement into interest-bearing. And more recently, that movement has slowed down. We're not necessarily calling the end of the so-called cash sorting, but this is one data point to consider.

与该展望相关的一个因素，是客户追逐收益行为对利息与非利息存款之间比例趋势的影响。为了更清晰地讲述这个故事，我们对部分存款进行了重新分类，使得数据相较补充材料中的更具直观性，并创建了一个你可以称之为“经济视角”的趋势图。在这个图中（紫色线条），你可以看到在本轮加息周期初期，变化不大。但随着美联储加息力度加大，资金开始更多流入有息存款。而最近，这种转移速度有所放缓。我们并不认为“现金分流”（cash sorting）现象已经终结，但这个趋势值得关注。

Now let's turn to expenses on the next page. We still expect 2025 adjusted expense to be about \$95 billion. I won't go through this page in detail as the priorities, themes, drivers and the narrative have not really changed since we presented it at fourth quarter earnings. But you might be asking yourself whether anything has changed as a result of the environment. Obviously, our core philosophy hasn't changed. We invest through the cycle and where it makes sense for the long term.

现在让我们翻到下一页来看支出部分。我们仍预计2025年调整后支出约为950亿美元。我不会在这里详细展开，因为自第四季度财报以来，支出优先事项、主题、驱动因素和整体逻辑都没有实质变化。但你可能会想，当前环境是否带来了一些变化？显然，我们的核心理念没有变：我们始终在全周期内进行投资，并以长期价值为导向。

At the same time, it's true that volume and revenue-related expenses will naturally fluctuate with market conditions. But it's important to remember that overall actual performance in the first quarter was strong, and that's 1/4 of the year already booked. And even over the last couple of weeks, the outlook has changed quite a bit in both directions. So we're just going to have to see how it plays out.

同时，业务量和收入相关的支出自然会随市场环境波动。但重要的是要认识到，今年第一季度的整体实际表现非常强劲，等于我们已经完成了全年目标的四分之一。而且仅在过去几周里，市场前景就出现了多方向的明显波动。因此，我们仍需拭目以待，继续观察事态发展。

One topical development worth noting is the effect on expenses of the recent weakening in the dollar. We hedge our nondollar revenue and expense on a net basis. And as a result, the effect of the weaker dollar on pretax income is insignificant. But when looking at expenses in isolation, the weaker dollar could result in some upward pressure.

当前一个值得注意的动态是近期美元走弱对费用的影响。我们对非美元收入与支出进行净额对冲，因此美元贬值对税前利润的影响可以忽略不计。但如果单独看费用项，美元走弱可能会带来一定的上行压力。

For the rest of my presentation, I'm going to cover some focused areas in a bit more detail. I'll start by explaining what we're talking about when we say we want to live within our means. As the slide says, expense discipline is, of course, a good thing. But what you really want to do is grow profits. So yes, our expenses have increased by \$26 billion over the last 5 years, which pretty much overlaps with my tenure as CFO of the company, but we've also grown revenue by \$54 billion. And you can see how that combines to produce the PPNR CAGR as we show on the page.

接下来的演讲中，我将更详细地介绍几个重点领域。首先我想解释一下我们所说的“量入为出”意味着什么。正如幻灯片所展示的，控制费用当然是一件好事，但真正的目标是实现利润增长。过去五年，我们的费用确实增加了260亿美元，基本覆盖了我担任公司CFO的任期，但同期我们的收入增长了540亿美元。你可以看到这两者共同推动了我们所展示的税前利润增长率（PPNR CAGR）。

You've heard this speech from us many times in the past. It's a version of the folly of looking for constant operating leverage and ever-expanding margins. We give this speech for a reason because it's true. And clearly, our results support the claim. At the same time, we are very focused on making sure that our commitment to investing through the cycle is not misinterpreted by our own people. It is not carte blanche for solving every problem by adding resources. We must invest prudently and constantly to increase efficiency.

这个观点我们以前已经反复讲过，主要是为了反驳那种一味追求持续性运营杠杆和不断扩大利润率的做法。我们反复强调是因为它确实正确，而我们的实际结果也证明了这一点。同时，我们高度重视确保内部员工不会误解我们“全周期投资”的承诺——这不是解决一切问题都靠增加资源的“通行证”。我们必须始终坚持审慎投资，并持续提升效率。

And so even though we broadly believe the headcount increases over the last few years were healthy and necessary to support growth, we do suspect some inefficiency was introduced. So at the margin, we're asking people to resist headcount growth where possible and increase their focus on efficiency. Of course, it should go without saying that we'll never compromise on safety and soundness, and we'll continue to hire and invest in the high-certainty areas where there is a link between adding employees and growing revenue. As we attack this challenge, one tailwind we believe we have is our investments in technology and AI.

因此，尽管我们总体上认为过去几年人员增长是健康且必要的，有助于业务扩张，但我们也怀疑其中引入了一些低效环节。所以现在我们在边际上鼓励各部门尽可能控制人员扩张，把更多精力放在提升效率上。当然，安全性和稳健性始终是不容妥协的，我们也会继续在那些“增长确定性高”的领域招聘和投资，即人员投入可以直接驱动收入增长的地方。在应对这一挑战时，我们认为一个顺风因素是我们在技术和人工智能上的持续投资。

For the sake of efficiency, Lori, Teresa and I agreed that I will give an update on our firm-wide technology NII strategy as well as cover tech expense. Earlier in the year, at an industry conference, we shared our outlook for total technology spend this year, which is still approximately \$18 billion, up about \$1 billion year-on-year.

出于效率考虑，Lori、Teresa 和我达成一致，由我来更新我们公司范围内的科技相关净利息收入（NII）策略，并介绍技术支出情况。今年年初我们在某次行业会议上分享过我们的全年技术支出展望，目前仍预计为约180亿美元，同比增长约10亿美元。

There are some interesting things to note in the year-on-year drivers. We are now probably past the point of peak modernization spend, resulting in a tailwind this year that is funding some of our ongoing investments in products, platforms and features. And we do continue to see volume growth across the company, drive some increased hardware and infrastructure expense. This, in turn, is partially offset by efficiencies.

从同比变动驱动因素来看，有几点值得关注。目前我们大概率已过了“现代化改造”支出的高峰期，这给今年带来了一个顺风因素，使我们能够为正在进行的产品、平台和功能投资提供资金支持。同时，公司整体业务量的增长仍在持续，也带动了一部分硬件和基础设施支出的上升。不过，这部分开支又在一定程度上被效率提升所抵消。

On the right-hand side, we've included some detail on investments. You'll see the majority is spent on products, platforms and features. Throughout the morning, you'll hear from the leaders of our lines of business about the specific areas where they are investing in order to drive their businesses forward.

在右侧页面，我们展示了部分投资细节。你会注意到，大部分支出都用于产品、平台和功能的开发。接下来整个上午的议程中，你将听到各业务线领导介绍他们正在投资的具体领域，以及如何借此推动业务发展。

Let's talk a bit about the strategies in tech and AI on the next page. As a firm, we continue to make progress on moving to the cloud and modern infrastructure. About 65% of our applications now run a large part of their workloads on the public or private cloud, up from 50% last year. If we include the applications that run largely on virtual servers, that number increases to 80%. In addition, we have almost completed the application migrations for our largest legacy data centers, and we are in the process of dismantling the physical infrastructure in those sites. This progress in our modernization efforts continues to deliver significant engineering efficiencies, which we see through ongoing improvement in our speed and agility metrics.

接下来看下一页的科技与人工智能（AI）战略。公司在向云端和现代化基础设施转型方面持续取得进展。目前约有65%的应用程序已将主要工作负载迁移至公有云或私有云，高于去年的50%；若包括主要运行于虚拟服务器的应用，该比例将提升至80%。此外，我们已基本完成最大规模传统数据中心的应用迁移工作，正着手拆除这些场所的物理基础设施。这一现代化进程持续带来显著的工程效率提升，具体反映在我们速度与敏捷度指标的持续改善上。

But we can't afford to fall behind. Competition is fierce, and innovation in AI and the cloud is making it easier for everyone to deliver features faster. And we know it's critical for us to do the same.

但我们不能有丝毫懈怠。竞争激烈，AI和云领域的创新正使得各方都能更快速地交付产品功能，我们也深知必须保持同样的节奏。

One area we are particularly excited about is the accelerated adoption of AI coding assistance by software engineers. And just on a personal note here, I'll say that I've recently been indulging in what I've come to learn is known as vibe coding a little bit. And it's actually like pretty amazing. And from what certain of my colleagues tell me who are actually trained professional computer scientists, it actually helps them quite a bit too with their efficiencies. So it's not just the amateurs who are helped by these tools. It's amazing stuff. And we have high hopes for the efficiency gains we might get.

我们特别兴奋的一个领域，是软件工程师加速采用AI编程助手。个人稍微分享一下：我最近自己也尝试了一下所谓的“vibe coding”，感觉确实非常惊艳。而一些受过专业训练的计算机科学同事也告诉我，这类工具对他们提升效率确实很有帮助。所以不仅是业余者，专业开发者同样受益匪浅。这真的是非常了不起的工具，我们对它带来的效率提升抱有很大期待。

Away from software development, we were early movers in AI and have been investing in it for over a decade, initially focusing on risk management, particularly in areas like fraud detection. More recently, we've significantly expanded our use of AI and are increasingly focused on driving operational efficiencies. One prominent use case is in the CCB call centers where AI is helping our agents service our customers more effectively with tools that help them anticipate and respond faster to questions. But there are many others.

在软件开发之外，我们是AI领域的早期参与者，十多年前就开始投资，最初主要用于风险管理，尤其是在欺诈检测方面。近年来我们大幅拓展了AI应用，越来越多地聚焦在提升运营效率上。一个显著的应用场景是在消费者与社区银行（CCB）的呼叫中心，AI工具正在帮助客服代表更高效地服务客户，能够预判问题并更快地响应。当然，这只是众多用例中的一个。

Our AI strategy is focused on balancing top-down direction, investment and leadership, with democratizing access and usage in order to generate as many bottoms-up ideas as possible from the people who are actually doing the work day to day. 2024 was a pivotal year in making progress on that with the launch of our flagship, model-agnostic generative AI platform, which we call LLM Suite. Over 200,000 employees globally have access, and on average, certain key subsets of the users tell us they are gaining several hours a week of productivity. And almost by definition, the time savings is coming from less valuable tasks, which means more time spent on value added. And as an additional benefit of this strategy, we are starting to see a number of citizen developer use cases go into production.

我们的AI战略致力于在高层推动与普及化使用之间取得平衡——既要设定方向、投入资金、提供领导力，也要推动一线员工广泛使用，以便从他们日常工作中激发尽可能多的“自下而上”的创意。2024年在这方面是具有转折意义的一年，我们推出了旗舰级的、模型无关的生成式AI平台“LLM Suite”。目前全球已有超过20万名员工能够使用它，一些关键用户群体反馈称平均每周能节省数小时工作时间。而这部分节省的时间几乎都是原本低价值的任务，从而释放了更多精力用于高附加值工作。作为这一战略的额外成果，我们已经看到不少“公民开发者”的实际用例正在进入生产环境。

While we've made substantial progress over the last decade, we are still in the early stages of our AI journey. We are focused on modernizing data, investing in scalable platforms and being at the forefront of innovation as technology evolves, positioning the company for sustained future success.

尽管我们在过去十年取得了显著进展，但我们的AI旅程仍处于早期阶段。我们正专注于数据现代化、可扩展平台的建设，并致力于在技术演进中始终走在前沿，从而为公司实现持续的未来成功奠定基础。

Turning to the next topic of interest. Let's talk more about credit, including a bit of additional detail on the allowance. Okay. Let me draw your attention to the net charge-off lines in the historical charts. Our current results do not reflect actual deterioration in credit to any meaningful degree. On the consumer side, the increase in charge-offs is simply normalization. And in wholesale, recent fluctuations have been more driven by idiosyncratic factors. Still, wholesale net charge-offs have been extremely low since the Great Financial Crisis, and it seems unlikely that the future will look as good as the past.

接下来看下一个大家关注的话题：信用风险，包括一些关于拨备的额外细节。首先请看历史图表中的净核销线条。目前的结果并不表明信用质量有任何实质性恶化。在消费端，核销率的上升只是回归常态；而在对公端，最近的波动更多源于一些个别性事件。但即使如此，自全球金融危机以来，对公业务的净核销率一直处于极低水平，未来是否还能维持如此良好表现存疑。

Now let's turn to the CECL framework. This is obviously a topic of interest that comes up regularly on earnings calls. But given the complexity of the framework and the time limitations on those calls, extensive discussion of allowance calculation details can become a distraction and has been known to occasionally irritate a certain CEO sitting right here in the front. So let's take the time now to go through it once, and hopefully, that will make future discussions more efficient.

接下来我们讲一下CECL（当前预期信用损失）模型。这显然是财报电话会上经常被问到的话题。但由于该框架本身较为复杂，而电话会时间有限，若详细讨论拨备计算方法可能会喧宾夺主，也有时会“惹恼”台下这位首席执行官（笑）。所以我们现在花点时间系统讲清楚一次，希望以后能更高效地交流这一话题。

We designed 5 economic scenarios, which project macroeconomic variables over 8 quarters in order to forecast near-term expected losses before transitioning to historical loss rates. The 5 scenarios consist of the central case, which is basically the modal economic forecast; the relative and extreme upside; and the relative and extreme downside. And each of these is assigned a probability.

我们设计了五种经济情景，用于预测未来8个季度的宏观变量，从而估算近期预期损失，然后再过渡至长期历史损失率。这五种情景包括：中性情景（即最可能的经济预测）、相对利好、极端利好、相对悲观和极端悲观。每一种情景都被赋予一定的概率权重。

Under standard weights, we attach half of the probability distribution to the central case, and the rest is distributed to the other scenarios, with obviously more probability on the relative cases than on the extreme cases. Importantly, given the nature of the scenario construction, even under standard weights, the probability-weighted peak unemployment is higher than the peak in the central case.

在标准权重设置下，我们将一半的概率分配给中性情景，其余分配给其他四种情景，其中相对情景的权重高于极端情景。需要特别指出的是，考虑到情景建模方式，即使在标准权重下，概率加权后的失业率峰值也高于中性情景中的峰值。

In addition, to reflect management judgment or a different view of the probability distribution, we can change the probabilities assigned to each of the scenarios, and I sometimes informally describe this as the skew.

此外，为了反映管理层的判断或对概率分布的不同看法，我们可以调整各情景的概率分配，我有时会非正式地称之为“倾斜调整”（skew）。

Moving to the current dynamics of the allowance. As of the fourth quarter, the peak unemployment rate in the central case was 4.5%. And the application of the skewed probabilities produced a weighted average peak of 5.5%. As we approached the April 2 tariff announcement, the forecast still called for a relatively benign peak unemployment rate of 4.4%.

接下来看当前拨备的动态情况。截至第四季度，中性情景中的失业率峰值为4.5%；而在采用“倾斜”概率设定后，得到的加权平均失业率峰值为5.5%。在4月2日关税政策宣布前，我们的预测依然显示出相对温和的失业率峰值为4.4%。

To reflect our view of the elevated uncertainty, we changed the skew to be even more weighted to the downside scenarios, which resulted in a first quarter allowance that embedded a peak weighted average unemployment rate of 5.8%. A question we get a lot is, what would happen if the unemployment rate actually approached the 5.8% level? Would we have to build additional reserves? The answer is almost certainly yes, but the magnitude would depend on a number of factors, including our ongoing evaluation of the amount of future uncertainty, the timing of the peak unemployment rate and the extent and speed of the recovery from that peak.

为了反映我们对当前不确定性上升的判断，我们进一步加大了对悲观情景的权重，从而使第一季度拨备模型中嵌入的加权失业率峰值达到5.8%。我们经常被问到的问题是：如果实际失业率真的接近5.8%，我们是否需要增加拨备？答案几乎可以肯定是“需要”，但具体规模将取决于多个因素，包括我们对未来不确定性的持续评估、失业率达到峰值的时点、以及从峰值恢复的速度和幅度。

As an illustration, we have simulated an instantaneous change, which increases the central case peak unemployment rate from 4.4%, what we had in the first quarter, to 6.5%, with the increase happening over 5 quarters and then recovering. Subject to many, many caveats, in that scenario, we would likely need to build about \$3 billion. And since we're talking about an instantaneous shock to the outlook and CECL is a lifetime expected loss concept, the build would be all upfront.

作为示例，我们模拟了一个“情景冲击”：将中性情景下的失业率峰值从第一季度的4.4%提高至6.5%，并假设这一变化在5个季度内完成，随后进入恢复期。尽管这一假设伴随诸多前提条件，在该情境下，我们预计将需要增加约30亿美元的拨备。由于CECL采用的是“生命周期预期损失”概念，面对这种前景冲击，拨备需要在第一时间一次性计提。

It's important to note that the choice to describe this as an instantaneous shock to the outlook is quite deliberate. While we all remember the large single period changes in the actual reported unemployment rate during COVID, that's not the way a normal recession plays out. Hence, the statement that the outlook changes instantly, but the actual deterioration in the unemployment rate takes 5 quarters, assuming the outlook materializes. And for the avoidance of doubt, this is only one scenario. There are worse scenarios that would involve significantly bigger builds.

值得强调的是，我们将其描述为“前景预期的瞬时冲击”是经过深思熟虑的。虽然我们都记得在新冠疫情期间，失业率在一个季度内曾大幅上升，但这并不是典型经济衰退的发展路径。因此，我们假设“前景预期迅速转变”，而实际失业率的恶化则在5个季度中逐步发生——前提是这种前景确实成为现实。为避免误解，这只是众多可能情景中的一个；在更极端的情境下，拨备需求可能远远高于这个示例。

Okay. On to the next page, we explore the potential impact of tariffs on the C\&I portfolio. Despite some optimism based on last week's news, which may be changing this week again, tariffs remain relevant, so we're sharing some of our analysis with you. The focus of this page is the traditional C\&I lending portfolio. So it excludes things like derivatives, secured financing and margin loans. Our analysis considers industry-specific dynamics, the ability to pass through costs as well as the profitability and creditworthiness of the clients themselves.

好的，下一页我们探讨关税对公司与工业（C\&I）贷款组合的潜在影响。尽管上周的新闻曾带来一丝乐观情绪，但本周局势又可能出现变化，因此关税问题仍然具有现实意义，我们希望借此分享部分分析结果。本页重点聚焦于传统的C\&I贷款组合，不包括衍生品、担保融资和保证金贷款等其他类资产。我们的分析考虑了行业动态、成本转嫁能力、客户自身的盈利能力与信用质量等因素。

Here, we're showing you a stylized representation of that analysis. The size of the bubbles represent the current allowance in any given sector. By using the allowance, we are essentially combining the nominal size of the exposure with its credit quality. To help you get a sense of scale, the reserves related to these exposures are \$5 billion. This would be the sum of all the bubbles. The Y-axis represents the starting operating margins before the impact of any tariffs. And the X-axis is the potential impact to margins from tariffs.

这里展示的是一个简化的分析图示。图中气泡的大小代表各行业目前的拨备金额，使用拨备作为代表，实际上是结合了行业敞口规模与信用质量。为了帮助你把握整体规模，这些气泡所代表的总拨备约为50亿美元。纵轴表示在关税影响发生前的起始营业利润率，横轴则表示关税可能对利润率造成的冲击幅度。

What the chart shows should be intuitive. In general, companies with higher margins will have more choices about whether or not to pass the tariff impact on to consumers. Companies with lower margins may be forced to pass on price increases, which may result in market share loss or require them to absorb the cost impact and erode already thin margins. And we're showing you where our exposures are across these dimensions.

图表所展示的内容应该是直观易懂的。一般来说，利润率较高的公司在是否将关税成本转嫁给消费者方面拥有更多选择；而利润率较低的公司则可能被迫提高售价，从而导致市场份额流失，或者不得不自行吸收成本冲击，进一步压缩本已微薄的利润率。图中则显示了我们在这些维度上的风险敞口分布。

So with this chart as a backdrop, the question of quantification arises. You won't be surprised to hear that we are reluctant to get too specific given the amount of uncertainty, both about the likely end state of the relevant policies and about the particular effect on any given client or industry.

基于这张图表的背景，自然会引出一个问题：如何量化风险？考虑到相关政策的最终走向尚不明朗，以及它们对特定客户或行业的具体影响存在极大不确定性，你应该不会惊讶我们在此不愿提供过于具体的预测。

But depending on the policy end state and how the pass-through dynamics play out, there are certainly some scenarios that would produce a notable increase in the wholesale allowance. Still, even those scenarios would be manageable for us. Most importantly, no matter the outcome here, we are committed to serving our clients through any environment and feel well positioned to do so.

不过，根据政策的最终形态及其成本传导机制的演变，确实存在某些情境会导致对公贷款拨备出现显著增加。但即使出现这些情况，对我们而言仍属可控范围。最重要的是，无论最终结果如何，我们始终致力于在任何环境下为客户提供服务，并且我们相信自己有充分能力做到这一点。

One reason for that confidence is our excess capital position. The left-hand side of this page is a reminder that we have excess capital well above our current requirements and regulatory buffers. To recap, we began preemptively building excess capital due to a potentially worse Basel III Endgame outcome, which now seems less likely to materialize.

我们之所以有这种信心，其中一个重要原因就是我们的超额资本状况。本页左侧再次强调，我们持有的超额资本远高于当前监管要求和缓冲区水平。回顾一下，我们此前之所以预先积累资本储备，是为了应对可能出现的更严苛的“巴塞尔协议Ⅲ最终方案”（Basel III Endgame），而现在这一风险似乎不太可能兑现。

As you've heard us say before, we view the excess capital as earnings in store and are happy to have it in this moment of uncertainty. At the same time, we recognize that at a certain point, the cost of carrying too much excess might exceed the option value of holding it, and we have been keeping this in mind as we adjust our buyback strategy.

正如我们此前所说，我们将超额资本视为“尚未动用的盈利”，在当前不确定时期拥有这样的储备，我们感到安心。同时我们也意识到，过多持有超额资本在某一时点可能带来的机会成本会超过其选项价值，这一点我们在调整股票回购策略时始终牢记在心。

So how are you going to use the excess? The boring answer is that we'll deploy it in line with our normal capital hierarchy, which we've illustrated on the right-hand side of the page. Starting from the top, risks and uncertainties are elevated in both the macro and regulatory environment, so it's useful to have a buffer to ensure that we can continue to support clients.

那么我们会如何使用这些超额资本？这个答案或许听起来“无趣”，但我们将严格按照常规资本优先顺序进行分配，正如本页右侧所示。首先，在宏观和监管环境中风险与不确定性均处于高位，因此保留一定缓冲非常有必要，以确保我们持续支持客户。

Next is to grow our business. We're, of course, focused on growing organically, but inorganic growth opportunities are always on the table. We've recently increased the dividend and will continue to do so in a sustainable way that can withstand downside shocks. And at the end are buybacks, which I've already addressed.

其次是推动业务增长。我们当然专注于有机增长，但也始终关注潜在的非有机增长机会。我们最近已提升派息水平，未来将以可持续方式继续增加派息，以应对潜在下行冲击。最后是股票回购，这部分我刚才已经讲过。

With that, let's cover our thoughts on the evolving regulatory landscape. We believe a robust regulatory framework should be coherent to avoid duplication; transparent, including thorough cost-benefit analysis; and durable to avoid ad hoc changes in times of stress.

接下来，我们来谈谈我们对监管环境演变的看法。我们认为，一个健全的监管框架应具备连贯性，以避免重复；具备透明度，包括详尽的成本效益分析；并具备持久性，避免在压力时刻出现临时性的政策变动。

Key pieces of the puzzle include: allowing modeling so that RWA is risk sensitive; backstop measures that are appropriately calibrated to ensure they serve their intended purpose; destigmatizing discount window usage and more broadly incorporating it in liquidity and resolution requirements; resolution planning done right to enable clear crisis communication with the general public so that depositors understand where they are in the capital stack and how they are protected as well as ensuring that institutions have the necessary mechanisms in place to fail in an orderly fashion, reducing pressure for government bailouts.

其中的关键要素包括：允许基于模型的风险加权资产（RWA）计算，使其具备风险敏感性；对兜底机制进行合理校准，确保其实现预期功能；去污名化贴现窗口的使用，并将其更广泛纳入流动性和处置规划要求；制定清晰的清算计划，以便在危机中能够向公众有效传递信息，让储户了解自己在资本结构中的位置以及受到的保护程度，同时确保机构具备有序破产的机制，从而减少政府救助的压力。

On the bottom left, we illustrate a point I feel quite strongly about. Both the global economy and our business are complicated. So an appropriate level of complexity in the regulatory framework should exist. However, there is a point of diminishing returns. Risk can never be completely eliminated, and increasing rule complexity can become its own source of risk. This is another compelling argument for the importance of understanding the cost-benefit analysis of any given proposed regulation before implementing it as well as revisiting rules when they are not working as intended.

在左下角，我们特别强调了一个我们非常重视的观点：全球经济和我们的业务本身就非常复杂，因此监管框架应具备适度的复杂性。然而，复杂性存在收益递减的问题——风险永远无法被完全消除，过度增加规则复杂性反而可能成为新的风险源。这也进一步说明，在实施任何拟议监管政策前，必须充分理解其成本与收益，并在发现其未达到预期效果时及时调整。

The Venn diagram on the right-hand side highlights that the overlap between the different rules covering risk sensitivity, backstop measures and systemic risk in terms of their purpose and impact is somewhat inevitable. The issue the industry has been experiencing is that over time, the duplication and crossovers have only grown, most notably with the continued rise in G-SIB scores.

右侧的维恩图展示了风险敏感性、兜底机制与系统性风险三类监管规则在目标与影响上的重叠几乎是不可避免的。行业中存在的问题是：随着时间推移，这些规则之间的重复和交叉越来越严重，尤其体现在全球系统重要性银行（G-SIB）评分的持续上升上。

So we do feel strongly that it's the right time for regulators to look back at the last 10 years of capital and liquidity rules holistically and determine what makes sense going forward. We are encouraged by recent openness on their part to evolve some aspects of this framework, but there is a lot to look at. As always, we are actively engaging with policymakers to encourage more rational outcomes during this important time.

因此，我们坚定地认为，现在正是监管机构全面回顾过去十年资本和流动性监管规则的适当时机，审视未来哪些内容仍然合理。我们对监管方近期在调整框架部分内容方面表现出的开放态度感到鼓舞，但仍有许多需要检视的地方。正如一贯所做的那样，我们也正积极与政策制定者沟通，推动更具理性和实效的监管结果。

Now let's cover returns under different scenarios as we do every year. This page is the output of a heavily simplified representation of the company that starts from our internal outlook and generates different multiyear ROTCE scenarios based on approximate sensitivities to certain key variables. And you'll note that our economic scenarios are updated to be relevant to the current environment.

现在，我们来看看不同情境下的回报表现，这也是我们每年都会介绍的内容。这一页展示的是基于公司内部展望，构建出的一个高度简化的模型，通过对若干关键变量的近似敏感度分析，模拟出多个年度的有形普通股股本回报率（ROTCE）情境。你会注意到，这些经济情景已根据当前环境进行了更新。

Now taking a step back, there are a few key takeaways. Even in the scenarios that produce below 17% return, returns are quite healthy, and this even includes recessionary scenarios. We are still comfortable with the 17% through-the-cycle target. And perhaps most importantly, we remain confident in delivering strong relative and absolute returns in a range of environments. That, in turn, is a good segue into the next page, where I'll address in more detail how we think about the through-the-cycle ROTCE target.

回过头来看，有几点值得关注：即使在ROTCE低于17%的情景下，回报仍然相当健康，包括在衰退情景中亦是如此。我们依然对17%的跨周期目标感到满意。或许最重要的是，我们依然有信心在多种环境下交付强劲的相对与绝对回报。这也自然引出了下一页的主题，我们将在那里更详细地阐述我们对跨周期ROTCE目标的思考方式。

We often get the question of whether we should, in light of recent results and the simulations I just discussed, change the ROTCE target. It's an important question that is worth addressing in some detail because it highlights some key elements of our capital deployment philosophy. But before going into that, I want to direct your attention to the left-hand side of the page to make the point that no matter how you slice it, 17% is an exceptional return. If you focus only on the first row, the JPM row, you might be misled into believing that this type of performance is entirely normal. But if you then look at the other rows, it makes it quite clear how truly exceptional the performance is in the context of the industry.

我们经常被问到：是否应该根据近期的业绩表现以及刚才所讲的情境模拟，调整我们的ROTCE目标？这是一个非常重要的问题，值得深入探讨，因为它体现了我们资本部署理念中的一些核心原则。但在展开之前，我想请大家先看看本页左侧的内容。无论你怎么分析，17%的ROTCE都是一个非常杰出的回报。如果你只看第一行，也就是JPM这一行，你可能会误以为这种业绩表现非常常见。但当你对比其他公司的数据后，就会发现我们在行业中的表现确实是极为出众的。

Now obviously, all else equal, higher returns are better, but all else is not equal. If we simply maximize ROE, we would become a tiny company and keep only the highest-returning businesses while returning the rest of the capital to shareholders. And I think it's safe to say that you wouldn't want us to do that. This highlights the fundamental tension between maximizing ROE and maximizing shareholder value, and we are in the business of maximizing long-term shareholder value.

当然，在其他条件不变的情况下，回报越高自然越好，但现实中其他条件并不恒定。如果我们一味追求ROE最大化，我们将不得不变成一家很小的公司，只保留回报率最高的业务，同时把其他资本全部返还给股东。我相信你们并不希望我们这么做。这也正好说明了一个核心张力：ROE最大化与股东价值最大化之间并不总是一致的，而我们的目标始终是实现长期股东价值最大化。

We illustrate this point on the right-hand side of the page. The white bar is the firm's indicative cost of equity. The Y-axis is the 2-year average ROE. And the X-axis represents the sublines of business with the width of the bar indicating how much capital is allocated to each business.

本页右侧的图表进一步阐释了这一观点。白色横线代表公司的股权资本成本。纵轴是过去两年的平均ROE，横轴是各业务子板块，柱状宽度则表示每项业务所分配的资本量。

As you can see, we do deploy significant amounts of capital above our 17% target. But we also deploy quite a bit of capital below 17% but above the cost of equity. Now you might say, why not move some of the capital from the lower-returning businesses to the higher-returning businesses? And the answer is that the higher-returning businesses have access to all the capital they want. Capital is not what constrains their growth. Therefore, the choice is between deploying the capital to the lower-returning businesses or buying back shares. Considering the implied cost of equity from where our stock trades, the right choice is obvious: retain the capital and deploy it into those businesses even if they return below 17%.

正如你所见，我们确实在一些ROTCE高于17%的业务上投入了大量资本。但我们同样也将不少资本投向ROTCE低于17%但高于股本成本的业务。你可能会问，为什么不把低回报业务的资本挪到高回报业务上？答案是：高回报业务早已拥有它们所需的一切资本，资本并不是制约它们增长的瓶颈。因此，我们真正的选择是在低回报业务上投放资本，还是用来回购股票。考虑到我们股票当前隐含的股权资本成本，最合理的选择是保留资本，并继续投入这些业务，即便它们的回报低于17%。

This is not to say that we are indifferent to ROE as long as it clears the cost of equity. The lower the expected return of any given capital deployment, the less room for error. And given the risk characteristics of certain businesses, we might decide that they should return well in excess of the firm's average cost of equity and adjust accordingly. But this doesn't change the basic simple point of this slide. By and large, you should think of the firm's ROTCE target as an output, not an input. And there are many decisions that we could make that would decrease that output while increasing long-term value generation.

这并不意味着我们对ROE的态度是“只要高于股本成本就可以”。事实上，任何资本部署的预期回报越低，可容忍的误差空间就越小。鉴于某些业务的风险特征，我们可能要求其回报远高于公司平均股本成本，并据此做出调整。但这些都不改变一个基本观点：公司ROTCE目标应被视为“结果指标”，而非“决策输入”。我们完全有可能做出一些会拉低ROTCE但却有利于长期价值创造的决策。

So with that firm-wide update as the backdrop, you'll now have the chance to hear directly from my colleagues who will review our strategic priorities, provide updates on the progress we've made since last year and tell you more about what we're doing to set up the firm for long-term success.

在介绍完这一公司层面的更新之后，接下来你们将听到我的同事们的分享。他们将回顾我们当前的战略重点，汇报自去年以来取得的进展，并进一步讲述我们为实现公司长期成功正在推进的各项举措。

Operator

Welcome to the stage, Marianne Lake.

接线员

欢迎 Marianne Lake 登台。

Marianne Lake   CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Okay. Good morning, everybody. It's my pleasure once again to be able to spend the next hour discussing the Consumer & Community Banking franchise with you. And as Jeremy said today, I'll share our strategies, our progress and our expectations looking forward, with a particular focus on a wider range of potential outcomes given the uncertainty in the outlook.

Marianne Lake 消费者与社区银行业务首席执行官

好的，大家早上好。我很高兴能再次花接下来一个小时的时间，与大家讨论消费者与社区银行（CCB）业务平台。正如Jeremy今天所说，我将分享我们的战略、进展以及未来展望，特别是考虑到前景存在不确定性，我会更侧重于探讨各种可能的情境。

So riffing off of a firm tagline, which Jeremy didn't use this time, this page describes CCB's top-down strategically differentiated positioning. We are complete. #1 in our core businesses, with a full set of products and services and scaling adjacencies in Wealth Management and Connected Commerce. We're national with 5,000 branches across 48 states and the #1 digital banking platform in the U.S. We're diversified, supporting best-in-class through-the-cycle returns, and we are at scale, having deep relationships with more than 91 million customers across segments.

借用一下我们公司的一句标语（虽然Jeremy这次没用），这一页展示了CCB从战略高度所体现出的差异化定位。我们的平台是完整的——在核心业务领域位居第一，拥有全套产品与服务，并在财富管理和互联商务等邻近领域实现了规模化增长。我们是全国性平台，在48个州拥有5,000家分行，同时拥有全美第一的数字银行平台。我们具备多样化结构，能够支持业内领先的跨周期回报，并具备规模优势，与超过9,100万客户建立了深层次关系，涵盖多个细分群体。

So before looking forward, let's look back at the progress that we have made over the last 5 years. On the top left, I've said it before, but it all starts with customer relationships, consistently growing at 3% a year, with digital engagement double that at 6%, both being outpaced by deepening and 7% growth in multi-LOB customers, all while delivering records in NPS and customer satisfaction across CCB and across our channels.

在展望未来之前，我们先回顾一下过去五年的发展成果。左上角图表显示，我之前就说过，一切始于客户关系。我们的客户基础每年稳定增长3%，数字渠道参与度增长更快，达到6%，而多产品线客户的增长更是达到7%。与此同时，我们在CCB整体以及各渠道的净推荐值（NPS）和客户满意度均创下历史新高。

On the right, we are a growth franchise, gaining share broadly and doubling the size of Wealth Management and Connected Commerce over the last 5 years. None of it would be possible without the investments we're making in distribution, tech, data and AI to drive customer experience, profitable growth and productivity.

在右侧，我们展示了CCB作为增长型平台的表现：过去五年中，我们在多个领域扩大市场份额，财富管理与互联商务业务规模翻倍。这一切得益于我们在渠道建设、技术、数据和人工智能方面的持续投资，推动了客户体验、盈利性增长和生产效率的提升。

Closing out this page, 2024 was another year of best-in-class financial performance, with an ROE exceeding 25% on both a reported and a normalized basis.

最后总结这一页，2024年我们再次实现了业内领先的财务表现——无论是报告口径还是调整后口径，ROE均超过25%。

So digging into our financial performance, one click deeper on the next page. Starting at the top, deposit balances stabilized at the end of last year, and year-to-date, we've seen modest growth. Loan growth continues driven by Card, and together, these will drive NII higher this year. Noninterest revenue growth will continue, notably in Wealth Management, Card and Connected Commerce as well as normalization in Auto lease.

接下来翻到下一页，我们更深入地剖析财务表现。首先，自去年底起，存款余额已趋于稳定，年初至今实现了温和增长；信贷余额在信用卡业务带动下继续扩大，这两项合力将推动今年净利息收入（NII）上行。非利息收入方面也将继续增长，尤其是在财富管理、信用卡与互联商务业务中，同时汽车租赁业务也在逐步回归常态。

On expense, we have more than doubled investment spend over the last 5 years. Those investments are paying off, and growth is moderating from here. And credit costs remain in line with our expectations for 2025.

在费用方面，我们在过去五年中的投资支出翻了一倍多，如今这些投入已开始见效，增长幅度也在逐步趋缓。至于信贷成本，目前表现与我们对2025年的预期一致。

On revenue. So 2019 was a normal year, and exit 2024 also felt somewhat normal, with balances stabilized and credit normalized, which is to say that you can actually look past all of the macro noise over the last 5 years and see that organic growth has been the revenue driver and will be a strong tailwind looking forward.

关于收入。2019年是一个正常年份，而2024年结束时同样感觉较为正常——余额趋于稳定、信用状况也已正常化。这意味着，其实可以忽略过去五年中的所有宏观噪音，清楚看到有机增长始终是我们收入增长的驱动力，并将在未来继续提供强劲的顺风支持。

We are also seeing the power of diversification in our revenue. First, even as deposit balances and margins came down last year, we benefited from capturing nearly 90% of net yield-seeking flows within our ecosystem. And the impact of lower deposit NII was basically offset by our lending businesses. Secondly, noninterest revenue has now grown over the significant headwinds of the pandemic, and we expect growth to continue.

我们也看到了收入多元化带来的力量。首先，即使去年存款余额和利差有所下降，我们仍成功在自身生态体系内吸收了近90%的净收益寻求型资金流入。由此带来的存款NII下降基本被我们的贷款业务所抵消。其次，在经历疫情带来的重大逆风后，我们的非利息收入已实现增长，预计这一趋势将持续。

Now let's set the backdrop for our key performance drivers looking forward, starting with the health of the consumer. This is a busy page, and you can read it later. But overall, we see both consumers and small businesses remaining financially healthy and resilient, true whether you look at cash buffers, spend or credit metrics, also generally true across income segments for consumers and for smaller businesses, too. However, what has definitely worsened is consumer confidence and small business sentiment, but it is too early to see any transmission to real customer behaviors yet.

现在我们来为未来几个关键绩效驱动因素定下背景，从消费者健康状况讲起。这一页信息较多，你可以稍后详细阅读。但整体来看，无论从现金储备、支出还是信用指标来看，消费者和小企业在财务上依然保持健康且具韧性，这一结论对各个收入层级和不同规模的小企业均成立。不过，确实有所恶化的是消费者信心和小企业情绪，但这些尚未明显传导至客户的实际行为中。

So we don't have a crystal ball, but let me lay out a range of economic scenarios consistent with Jeremy's upfront presentation. We're using 4 scenarios to illustrate a range of potential outcomes across our most material business drivers. You can also read these at your leisure, but from the left, a soft-landing, sunny-shining view, which was our base case until quite recently.

虽然我们无法预测未来，但我可以列出一组与Jeremy前面介绍相一致的经济情景。我们使用4种情境来描绘主要业务驱动因素下可能出现的结果区间。你可以稍后详细阅读，以下是概要：从左边开始，第一种是“软着陆、阳光明媚”情景，直到最近它还是我们的基准情形。

Second, a near-term mild recession, with unemployment peaking at about 5.3% and rates coming down to 325 basis points by early next year. The distance between a soft landing and mild recession is somewhat narrow. And our current central case, which has been fluid over the last several weeks, is between these 2.

第二种情景是短期温和衰退，失业率峰值为5.3%左右，利率在明年初降至3.25%。软着陆与温和衰退之间的差距较小，而我们当前的中央情景假设就在这两者之间（并在过去几周中有所调整）。

Third, a moderate recession, unemployment peaking at 6.5%, rates coming down to 2% in 2026.

第三种情景是中度衰退，失业率峰值为6.5%，利率到2026年降至2%。

And fourth, a deep early recession, with unemployment peaking a little over 7% and rates cut hard and fast to 25 basis points by mid next year.

第四种情景是较早发生的深度衰退，失业率峰值略高于7%，利率在明年年中快速大幅降至0.25%。

So let's look at the range of outcomes, starting with deposit balances. As I said, we are beginning to see modest growth this year in checking, driven by strong customer acquisition, adding about 10 million net new checking accounts over 5 years, and we expect deposit growth through 2027 in all scenarios. In fact, in lower rate scenarios, which often accompany periods of stress, we benefit from stronger growth, including flight to quality.

接下来让我们看一看不同情景下的结果范围，先从存款余额说起。如我刚才所说，今年我们在活期存款上已看到温和增长，这主要归因于强劲的客户获取能力——过去五年净增了约1,000万个活期账户。我们预计在所有情景下，存款增长都将持续至2027年。事实上，在利率较低的情景下（通常伴随经济压力时期），我们反而会实现更强劲的增长，包括客户“转向高质量平台”的趋势（flight to quality）。

Moving to deposit margin, and I'm going to set some context. In CCB, as you know, we don't take outright interest rate risk positions. We'd rather transfer that to corporate treasury to manage. So our margin is an outcome of the assessment of deposit duration and reprice sensitivity. And therefore, it is a function of a blend of short-term and long-term prevailing rates, plus the liquidity value we're paid as a source of funding for the firm.

接下来讲存款利差，我想先提供一些背景说明。在CCB，我们不会主动承担利率风险，而是将这类风险转移给公司财务部进行集中管理。因此，我们的利差是对存款久期和重定价敏感性评估后的结果，本质上取决于短期和长期市场利率的加权组合，以及我们作为公司资金来源所获得的流动性价值补偿。

Looking back over the last decade or so, rates were structurally low for a number of years. And as such, over the last 10 years, our average deposit margin was a little over 200 basis points. But for many of those years, it was below 200. We obviously don't know what rates will do looking forward, but everything we show you here is based on the scenarios. Starting well above 400 basis points is just a different place to start.

回顾过去十多年，利率在很长一段时间里处于结构性低位。因此，在过去10年中，我们的平均存款利差略高于200个基点，而其中许多年都低于200。未来利率会如何演变我们无法预知，但今天展示的一切分析都是基于情景假设。而本轮周期以400多个基点为起点，显然处于一个完全不同的区间。

In the table on the bottom right, you see a snapshot of our current funding profile. There's a portion of our deposits invested short, representing higher beta deposits and a potential for balance changes. This has obviously served us well over this rate hiking cycle, with significant excess liquidity draining from the system. There's another portion we deploy for term. And more recently, over the last 3 years, we've had the opportunity to deploy at rates on average above 4%, leaving a balance that was invested before this most recent rate cycle at lower rates, yielding below 2%. This is obviously an opportunity to improve margin as we reinvest it looking forward.

右下角表格展示了我们当前的资金配置情况。一部分存款配置在短期资产上，对利率更敏感（即高Beta存款），余额波动潜力也更大——在本轮加息周期中，这部分配置表现非常好，有效吸收了系统中的大量过剩流动性。另一部分存款则用于较长期限的投资。过去三年里，我们抓住机会，以平均4%以上的利率进行配置；而在此轮加息前配置的存量资产利率较低，收益率低于2%。因此，随着未来再投资的展开，这是我们提升利差的重要机会。

So starting with 2024 margin of 266 basis points. As front-end rates trend down, we expect the mix of CDs and higher-beta products and, therefore, rate paid to trend down also. Coupled with a steeper curve under most scenarios, we expect deposit margin of about 250 basis points or more, with the obvious exception of the deep recession. If rates are cut to close to 0 and stay there for a while, so will go our margin over time.

从2024年的266个基点存款利差出发，随着前端利率下行，我们预计CD和高Beta产品在存款组合中的占比将下降，支付利率也将随之下降。结合多数情景下更陡峭的收益率曲线，我们预计存款利差将在250个基点以上，除非出现深度衰退的情景。如果利率被降至接近零并长期维持，那么我们的利差也会随时间下滑。

Moving on to lending and credit. Credit card balances will also grow across scenarios, a function of the cumulative impact of new vintage acquisitions. We're adding about 10 million new accounts a year and have improved retention from an already strong position, up 70 basis points over the last 5 years. Outstandings have grown with a 6% CAGR from 2019 through 2024, notwithstanding the sharp pandemic V-shaped dip and recovery and, in fact, a 6% CAGR, if you look all the way back to 2014.

再来看贷款和信用。信用卡余额在各类情景下均将实现增长，这主要受益于新客户的持续累积。我们每年新增账户约1,000万个，客户留存率也在本已较高的基础上提升了70个基点。在经历疫情期间的V型下滑与反弹之后，从2019年至2024年，信用卡余额的年复合增长率为6%；如果追溯到2014年起算，年复合增长率同样为6%。

We currently expect stronger growth looking forward of 8% plus or minus. The arrows in the chart on the bottom right show the countervailing impacts of drivers under stress, which we believe would still net to moderate growth of about 3% or 4% depending on the scenario.

目前我们预计未来将实现更强劲的增长，年增速约为8%上下。右下角图表中的箭头展示了在压力情境下各种因素的对冲影响——我们认为，在此背景下净增仍可维持在3%至4%左右，具体取决于实际情景路径。

Moving to the next page, looking at Card credit metrics. Spoiler alert, these still look very good on both an absolute and relative basis. Importantly, leading indicators also still look good: entry to delinquency, early flow rates to 2 missed payments and minimum or low payment rates. While we see some movement, these are stable and do not yet indicate stress.

翻到下一页，来看信用卡的信用指标。提前剧透一下：无论从绝对还是相对角度看，这些指标依然表现良好。更重要的是，领先指标目前也依然健康，比如进入逾期的比例、早期流转至连续两期未还的比例、以及最低还款或低还款率。虽然我们看到一些边际变化，但整体仍保持稳定，目前尚未显示出任何压力迹象。

Rounding off, we expect Card charge-offs this year broadly in line with our guidance of 3.6%. And given the elevated level of uncertainty and how much market views are changing, for 2026 outlook, I put on the page a range from 3.6% to 3.9%, with 3.6% being consistent with a continued benign environment and given our portfolio mix and metrics have now normalized and 3.9% reflecting a slightly worse scenario, which is today's central case, unemployment peaks at 4.8% next year, as I said, between the soft landing and mild recession.

总结一下：我们预计今年信用卡核销率大致符合3.6%的指引。考虑到当前不确定性上升以及市场预期快速变动，我在2026年的展望上设定了一个区间：3.6%至3.9%。3.6%的情形对应一个持续温和的环境，我们的组合结构和各项指标现在也已回归正常；而3.9%则对应一个略微恶化的情形，也就是我们目前的中性情景，假设明年失业率在4.8%见顶，位于软着陆与温和衰退之间。

And for a wider range of scenarios so you can pick your own adventure, let's turn to the next page and a Card stress analysis. Okay. You can see loss rates next year under the range of scenarios. And as Jeremy said, we are currently reserved for a weighted average peak unemployment at 5.8% in gray. Of course, losses are unlikely to be realized ratably over time. They will be front-loaded in reserves, as Jeremy said.

如果你想探索更多情景路径，我们可以翻到下一页看信用卡的压力测试分析。你可以看到在不同经济情境下，明年的预期损失率。正如Jeremy所说，我们目前的拨备假设中加权平均失业率峰值为5.8%（图中灰色情形）。当然，损失不会按时间平均分布，而是如Jeremy所述，会集中体现在初期的拨备中。

The final page then on credit will wrap up with the other businesses. We are maintaining discipline. Our portfolios are clean, and performance is generally in line with expectations. With the exception of Business Banking on the bottom right, you can see loss rates are slightly elevated, a function of an intentional expansion in small dollar credit. While we expected this to lead to higher losses for which we priced, performance was outside of our expectations, and we've tightened and seeing credit metrics roll over. For context, this is a smaller part of our portfolio, and most importantly for you all, it is not an indicator of stress more broadly.

信用部分的最后一页总结了其他业务线的情况。我们在保持审慎，资产组合整体质量良好，表现大体符合预期。右下角的商业银行业务是个例外，你会看到损失率略有上升，这是我们有意扩大小额信贷所导致的。虽然我们预期这会带来更高的损失并已在定价中反映，但实际表现略超出我们原先估算，因此我们已收紧准入政策，目前也看到信用指标开始回落。需要说明的是，这一部分在我们整体资产组合中占比很小，而且更重要的是，它并不代表整体出现信用压力。

Rounding off the financial story with expenses. This year, we expect the expense to be around \$41 billion, and you can see the thematic drivers of the year-on-year increase in the walk. Unsurprisingly, they are consistent with our investment and growth strategies, so field and branch network, marketing and tech and product.

接下来是财务部分的收尾——费用。今年我们预计总费用在410亿美元左右，图表中展示了同比增长的主要驱动因素。毫无意外，这些驱动因素与我们的投资和增长战略一致，主要包括线下网点建设、市场营销、科技与产品等方面的投入。

On the following pages, I'll dive into each of these to show you the incremental productivity and efficiency we're delivering. But stepping back, one point that I know isn't lost on you is that in our expense is Auto lease depreciation, a function of accounting geography. I'll remind you that for every dollar of Auto lease depreciation we have, we have more than \$1 of Auto lease income in the same period. The reason this is coming into focus right now is because loan and lease mix is now normalizing after sharp pandemic declines. Excluding this, underlying expense growth is slowing from a nearly 9% CAGR from '19 through '24 to now a little more than 6%.

在接下来的几页中，我会深入讲解各项费用背后的具体投入，以及我们是如何带来额外生产力和效率的。但先退一步看，我知道你们也都注意到，费用中包含了一项“汽车租赁折旧”，这是会计分类带来的结果。我要提醒大家：我们每有1美元的汽车租赁折旧，同时期就会产生超过1美元的相关收入。现在这项数据受到关注，是因为疫情后贷款与租赁的组合正在逐步恢复常态。如果剔除这项影响，我们的实际费用增长率已经从2019至2024年期间近9%的年复合增长率下降到当前略高于6%。

So let's move on to the field and branch on the next page. We've shaded these bars into same store and expansion, where expansion incorporates both new builds as well as incremental bankers and advisers across our businesses. We're seeing overall growth this year moderating to 5% as we have ramped up our investments over the last 5 years, and now they're at a steady clip, and they are in our run rate.

我们翻到下一页来看线下网点和团队建设。图中的柱状图区分了“原有门店增长”（same store）与“扩张”（expansion）两类，扩张部分包括新建网点以及各业务线新增的客户经理和顾问。我们预计今年整体增速将放缓至5%，这反映了我们过去五年投资节奏的大幅提升已逐步趋于平稳，并进入了我们的正常运营节奏。

On the right, notable performance metrics. Our investments in branches, bankers and advisers pretty consistently breakeven in less than 4 years, with new branches and advisers making meaningful contributions to deposits and investment gains. And at the bottom, over the last 5 years, you can see that the field has become significantly more productive across job families, delivering the franchise benefit of this channel.

右侧列出了一些关键绩效指标。我们在分行、客户经理和顾问方面的投资通常在不到四年内实现盈亏平衡，且新设分行和顾问能显著贡献存款增长与投资业务收入。底部数据显示，在过去五年中，我们一线团队在各岗位上整体生产力大幅提升，进一步增强了这个渠道为整体平台带来的价值。

Marketing, shown here, these numbers are gross, and they include credit card acquisition premiums reflected in contra-revenues, which brings our estimated spend to be a little over \$10 billion this year.

再看市场营销部分，图中展示的是总支出数据，包括反映在对销收入中的信用卡获取成本，因此我们预计今年市场总投入略高于100亿美元。

Starting at the bottom with acquisitions. We have data-driven confidence in the performance of new vintages consistently meeting or exceeding our expectations, and 2024 was no exception, delivering more than 2x return on investment and an 85% increase in vintage lifetime value versus 2019.

先从客户获取部分看起。我们通过数据验证，新近获取客户群的表现持续达到甚至超出预期，2024年也不例外——当年投资回报率超过2倍，单户生命周期价值较2019年提升85%。

The largest part of this, of course, is Card. Over the last several years, we've seen a change in mix towards fee-based cards, yes, driving higher costs, but also higher value. We expect to break through 10 million accounts this year. Our current outlook is for more than 10.5 million, with the increase being primarily in premium travel cards. Again, higher costs, higher value and strong returns.

其中占比最大的是信用卡业务。过去几年，我们产品组合逐步向收费型卡片倾斜，这确实带来了更高的获取成本，但也带来了更高的客户价值。今年我们预计账户数量将突破1,000万，目前的展望是超过1,050万户，增长主要来自高端旅游卡产品。再次强调，这是“高成本、高价值、高回报”的组合。

In addition, we're spending more on media this year, supporting product refreshes and launches. The 2025 acquisition vintage is estimated to deliver a 2x return on investment again.

此外，我们今年还加大了媒体支出，支持产品更新与新产品发布。预计2025年的客户获取批次同样将实现2倍的投资回报。

Moving up to the lighter blue bar. Our strategy is to provide product benefits that are easy to use. So stronger growth here is a very good thing as we continue to add more and more benefits to our cards, including our Sapphire lounges. This level of engagement is in line with product design and business case. So we are getting paid for it. You can see that on the right. We've grown annual fees at a 13% CAGR over 5 years, with strong retention and a material improvement in top of wallet share for customers who engage with these benefits.

再来看浅蓝色栏位，对应的是客户使用权益的支出部分。我们的策略是提供易于使用的产品权益，因此此处增长越强劲越好，说明客户积极使用我们不断新增的权益，包括Sapphire贵宾厅等服务。这种参与度与我们的产品设计和商业模型完全一致，我们能够从中获得回报。从右侧数据可以看到，过去五年我们的年费收入实现了13%的年复合增长率，同时客户留存率强劲，“首选支付工具”占比显著提升。

So actual marketing spend will always be a function of the demand and excitement in the market for our products, which is strong today and reflected in this outlook.

因此，实际的市场营销支出始终取决于市场对我们产品的需求和热情。目前这方面表现强劲，也反映在我们的整体展望中。

The third big investment category, tech and product, is on the next page. We estimate spend of about \$9 billion on tech, product and design this year, moderating to a 6% growth rate year-on-year. \$7.4 billion of this is in tech, about 10% of revenue. Production expense is at the bottom and is up modestly this year, with the impact of outsized wage inflation and First Republic migration, among other things, largely behind us.

第三大投资类别——技术与产品，详见下一页。今年我们预计在技术、产品与设计方面的支出约为90亿美元，同比增速回落至6%。其中74亿美元投入于技术，占总收入的约10%。生产类支出位于结构底部，今年略有上升，主要是此前工资大幅上涨以及“第一共和银行”迁移等因素的影响基本已过去。

Moving up, as Jeremy also said, we expect the amount we are spending on modernization and lower discretion investments to be relatively flat looking forward. And these investments include addressing risk and controls and product and platform maintenance. Strategic investments are up as we refresh Card financial products and improve digital and engagement platforms, including deploying AI to enhance our servicing interactions.

再往上看，正如Jeremy提到的，我们预计未来在现代化改造和非战略性投资上的支出将维持相对平稳。这部分投资主要用于风险控制、产品和平台维护等。而战略性投资正在增加，用于信用卡金融产品更新、数字平台和互动平台的优化，包括运用人工智能提升服务体验。

In the table on the right, you can see some of the results. We have increased code deployments by more than 70% over the last 2 years and improved the quality of product delivery over the same period, with a 20% reduction in work being replanned. Our investments this year have more than 2x return on investment and continue to pay back within 5 years. And our investments in AI/ML delivered a 35% increase in value last year.

右侧表格展示了部分成果。过去两年，我们的代码部署量增长超过70%，产品交付质量同步提升，重规划项目数量下降20%。今年的投资回报率超过2倍，仍维持在5年内收回成本的节奏。而我们在AI/机器学习领域的投入在去年带来了35%的价值增长。

Moving on to operations, another great story. Outside of fraud costs, you can see expense is basically flat over 5 years and relatively flat coming into this year, clearly demonstrating the benefit of efficiency. Accounts serviced per ops headcount are up 25%, in part, because we've eliminated customer pain points and improved the ability for customers to self-serve, which has driven a nearly 30% decrease in servicing calls per account. In addition, processing costs have gone down by 15%. And while AI has definitely contributed here, a lot of this is good old-fashioned process automation and organizational efficiency.

再来看运营，情况同样喜人。除欺诈损失外，运营费用在过去五年基本持平，今年至今也维持稳定，明显体现出效率提升的成果。每位运营员工所服务的账户数量增长了25%，部分归功于我们消除了客户痛点、提升了客户自助服务能力，从而使每账户服务电话数量下降近30%。此外，处理成本下降了15%。虽然AI确实发挥了作用，但其中很大一部分也来自传统的流程自动化和组织效能提升。

On fraud, even as bad actors get more sophisticated and threat vectors get more complex, with a 12% CAGR in attack rate, the cost of fraud in basis points has been flat over the same period. And here, AI has been a very significant part of the solution.

关于欺诈风险，尽管攻击者手段更为复杂、威胁路径更具多样性，攻击率年复合增长达12%，但欺诈损失成本（以基点计）在同期基本保持不变。在这方面，AI的贡献尤为显著。

We have even higher expectations for driving efficiency going forward in the illustration on the bottom right. Ops headcount, excluding Home Lending, has grown by only 13% over the last 5 years while the business has grown by more than 25%, so a 15% productivity.

我们对未来的效率提升有更高期待，见右下角图示。若不计入住房贷款，运营岗位人数过去五年仅增长13%，而业务规模增长超过25%，意味着实现了约15%的生产力提升。

The operations team is at the tip of the spear on using and leveraging new AI tools and capabilities. And based upon what we know today, we expect headcount will trend down by about 10% over the next 5 years or so, even as the business grows by another more than 25%. So total productivity of above 40%. But I would take the over on this projection, and I'll bet we will deliver even more as the tools and capabilities just keep getting better and better, which is a great segue to talk more broadly about the value that we've been delivering across CCB from leveraging data and AI/ML.

运营团队正处在使用和推动AI工具应用的前沿。根据我们目前的评估，未来五年运营团队人数预计将减少约10%，而业务规模有望再增长25%以上，意味着整体生产力将提升40%以上。但我个人认为这个预测还是保守的，随着工具与能力不断升级，我们的效率提升会更高。这也为我们接下来展开更宏观的话题提供了自然过渡——即CCB如何通过数据与AI/ML释放全面价值。

Across the top, you can see we have a very rich and valuable tapestry of data. And despite the step change in productivity we expect from newer AI capabilities over the next 5 years, we have been delivering significant value even with more traditional models, and the value we're delivering is growing exponentially.

页面顶部展示了我们所拥有的数据资产——丰富而极具价值。虽然我们预计未来五年将从新一代AI能力中获得飞跃式的生产力提升，但即使仅凭传统模型，我们也已持续创造出可观价值，且这一价值正呈指数级增长。

I point that out for 2 reasons. One is that not every opportunity requires GenAI to deliver it, and we are all systems go already. And second, we're well on our way, modernizing our data to make it more efficiently consumable and machine readable, first, by migrating to the public cloud to achieve max storage and compute efficiency, and we're done here. Our users and reporting need to migrate to the cloud, too, and we're well on the way there.

我强调这一点有两个原因：一是并非所有机会都必须依赖生成式AI（GenAI）来实现，我们已经在全面推进；二是我们正有序地推进数据现代化，使其更高效、更易被机器读取和利用。第一步是迁移到公有云，以实现最大化的存储与计算效率，这一步我们已经完成。我们的用户和报表系统也需迁入云端，目前这一工作正在推进中。

Being on the cloud isn't the only thing, of course. Our data needs to be in our target platforms. We're about halfway through that journey. And making data truly fit for purpose will include a subset that will need to be streamed real time, and we've made significant progress here, in particular, for servicing and personalization.

当然，迁入云端只是基础。我们的数据还必须进入目标平台。目前这项工作已完成约一半。要真正让数据“物尽其用”，部分数据必须实现实时流式处理，这方面我们也取得了重要进展，尤其是在客户服务和个性化场景中。

There's still a way to go, but as I said, in the meantime, we are delivering significant value. Moving to the right, 35% more value last year, and we expect an acceleration this year. The biggest driver looking forward is expected to be revenue productivity as a result of enhanced credit strategies, marketing and sales optimization and pricing and personalization.

尽管还有不少路要走，但正如我刚才提到的，我们已经在创造巨大价值。右侧图表显示，去年我们实现了35%的价值增长，今年预计将进一步加速。未来最大驱动因素将是营收生产力的提升，得益于更优的信贷策略、营销与销售优化、以及定价和个性化策略的推进。

Personalization is like 1,000 points of light. It's not one big thing. It's every individual experience we deliver just driving more and more value. By way of example, and there are many examples, we are now beginning to personalize the mobile landing page, changing up what we show you based upon, of course, your relationship with us but, more importantly, what we believe would be contextually relevant to you today. For example, if you are a points enthusiast, we'll prioritize Ultimate Rewards content, spotlighting ways to engage, earn and redeem points. Results so far are strong. When we personalize the mobile home screen, we achieve a 25% higher engagement rate.

个性化就像“千点之光”——并非一件大事，而是通过每一个微小的用户体验持续创造价值。例如（其实我们有很多例子），我们已开始个性化定制移动端的首页，根据客户与我们的关系以及我们对其当下情境的理解，调整展示内容。例如，对于积分爱好者，我们会优先呈现“终极奖励”内容，推荐赚取与兑换积分的方式。迄今为止，成效显著——移动首页个性化后，用户互动率提高了25%。

Wrapping up the financial section, it's fair to say that the macroeconomic and regulatory outlook remain fluid and uncertain. We have a very strong hand, but we never underestimate the competition everywhere. What has served us well in the past will serve us well in the future, running the business with a long-term view and through-the-cycle metrics, looking around corners to build capabilities, products and businesses that give us strategic optionality, and operating with a growth mindset competing to win.

总结财务部分，我们可以明确地说：宏观经济与监管前景仍充满不确定性。我们自身实力雄厚，但绝不会低估来自各方的竞争。我们过去成功的关键在于以长期视角经营业务、以跨周期指标衡量绩效，前瞻性地构建能力、产品与业务，为战略灵活性打下基础，并始终坚持增长思维，以“赢”为目标展开竞争。这些理念未来仍将持续指引我们。

So speaking of winning. Let's move to our strategic growth plans. And here, you can see we do have bold long-term ambitions, but we do have plans to deliver them. I'm going to take you through those, and then I'm going to come back to this page at the end.

既然说到“赢”，那就让我们进入战略增长规划部分。正如你们所见，我们确实有大胆的长期愿景，但同样也有实现这些愿景的可执行方案。接下来我会逐一为你们讲解，然后再回到这一页做总结。

Starting at the top with customer experience. We, of course, can't forget what we're here for, which is serving our customers across their financial needs. Our long-term growth and profitability depends on enduring relationships and loyalty from our customers, only possible if we deliver an extraordinary experience. It doesn't just happen. It's in the culture.

首先讲客户体验。我们当然不能忘记我们的核心使命——服务客户的各类金融需求。我们的长期增长和盈利能力取决于客户关系的持久性和忠诚度，而这唯有在我们提供卓越体验的基础上才能实现。这不是自然而然发生的，它已经深深嵌入我们的企业文化之中。

This is a game of inches, particularly when starting from a high base like ours, with record NPS last year up 5 points over the last 5 years. But we can and will do better. And here, too, we manage at a granular level, not just at the business level, across channels, across products, segments, and we even measure and manage interactions. Personalization is the key to unlocking the next frontier in customer experience, and our data and AI agenda is how we're going to get there.

这是一场“寸进之战”，尤其像我们这样已经处于高基准起点的企业。去年我们的净推荐值（NPS）创历史新高，过去五年累计提升5个点，但我们仍有提升空间，也一定会做得更好。我们管理的维度也非常细致——不仅在业务层面，还涵盖渠道、产品、客户细分，甚至具体的客户互动行为。个性化是提升客户体验的下一个突破口，而我们在数据与人工智能方面的战略布局正是实现这一目标的路径。

Now to our plans by business, starting with banking. We are outgrowing the competition in deposits, with a 7% CAGR in consumer and 12% in Business Banking, driven by the strength and consistency in customer acquisition and contribution from investments in new branches. We've gained 220 basis points of share over 5 years and have momentum. But you can see that it hasn't been linear, which sparks the question, is growth slowing? Short answer is no.

接下来分业务来看，从银行业务开始。我们在存款方面增长优于竞争对手，消费者银行业务年复合增长率为7%，商业银行为12%。这得益于我们在客户获取上的持续能力和新建网点带来的贡献。过去五年我们累计提升了220个基点的市场份额，保持了良好的增长势头。但正如你所见，这并非线性增长，这可能引发一个疑问：增长是否在放缓？简短回答：没有。

I think you could agree that the last few years have been very atypical. At the peak, we estimate we had about \$300 billion of excess deposits, and our growth materially outpaced the industry on the way up because of the strength of primary bank relationships. Now as customer balance sheets have normalized through 2024 and we're seeing deposits move higher, so we expect to resume our historical share gain trend.

相信大家都能认同，过去几年是非典型时期。在存款高峰期，我们估计拥有大约3,000亿美元的超额存款。在上升阶段，我们的增长显著快于同行，主要是由于我们在“主银行关系”方面的优势。如今，随着客户资产负债表在2024年恢复正常，我们已看到存款回升，因此预计将重拾我们历史上的市场份额提升趋势。

On Business Banking, we're also gaining share as a primary bank, up nearly 30 basis points over the last 5 years and have confidence that, that will continue. All in all, we maintained #1 positions in both deposit share and primary bank for business. So I do know that a key question on your mind is, how do we get to 15% share from here? So let me show you.

在商业银行方面，我们作为“主银行”的市场份额也在提升，过去五年上升了近30个基点，我们有信心这种趋势将持续。整体来看，我们在企业存款份额和“主银行”地位方面均为行业第一。我知道大家很关心的一个核心问题是：我们如何从现在的水平提升至15%的市场份额？让我来详细讲解。

First of all, a history is an indicator of the future statistic. We have added about 30 basis points of share a year over the last 10 years, and we expect growth broadly consistent with that to continue.

首先，从历史看未来——我们在过去十年中每年平均提升约30个基点的市场份额，预计未来将大体维持这一增长节奏。

Let's break down the 220 basis points of recent gains in the chart, putting First Republic to one side, which contributed about 40 basis points. Over the past 5 years, as you know, we've embarked on an ambitious strategy to expand our network nationally and laid the foundation for capturing share in expansion markets. Those expansion markets represent 40% of total retail deposits and 80% of our new build since 2019, the 660 that I circled on the right. New builds, including in expansion markets, delivered in total about 100 basis points of share.

让我们来分解这220个基点的增量（见图表），先排除First Republic的影响，它贡献了约40个基点。过去五年，我们实施了一项雄心勃勃的战略，在全国范围内扩张分行网络，并为未来在新市场抢占份额奠定了基础。这些扩张市场占全国零售存款的40%，同时自2019年以来，占我们新建网点的80%，右图中圈出的那660家就是例证。这些新建网点（含扩张市场）共计贡献了约100个基点的份额增长。

Finally, continued growth in our mature footprint contributed the rest of it, 80 basis points, split pretty evenly between heritage Chase and WaMu. With WaMu, we achieved a significant presence in some of the largest deposit markets including in California and Florida that we did not have a presence in before. And we have outperformed because of the strength of our brand, having the best people, the best real estate, products and services and uplifting the customer experience.

最后，我们在成熟市场的持续增长贡献了剩余的80个基点，Chase与WaMu历史网络几乎各占一半。通过WaMu的并购，我们在此前未进入的几个重要存款市场中建立了显著存在，例如加州和佛州。而我们之所以能够在这些市场中实现超越，得益于我们品牌的影响力、杰出的人才、优质的网点选址、产品与服务组合，以及不断优化的客户体验。

So looking forward, we're no longer going to discuss the various heritages. Instead, we are showing you the breakdown of expected gains by our presence or our density in the market. As branch density increases, so does deposit share as the 2 are highly correlated. You can see growth across the board, but with a larger contribution from expansion market, as you would expect. In fact, all new builds continue to deliver another 40% of these future gains. And we continue to make meaningful progress optimizing the network in mature markets where we already have significant share. And you can see that on the next page.

展望未来，我们将不再按历史网络区分增长来源，而是按照我们在各市场的存在程度和网点密度来划分预期增长。因为网点密度与存款份额高度相关。你会看到在所有市场都实现了增长，尤其是扩张市场贡献更大，这是意料之中的。事实上，所有新增网点将持续贡献未来新增存款的40%。同时，我们也在已有较高市场份额的成熟市场中持续优化网点网络，并取得了实质性进展，下一页会有具体展示。

We have delivered widespread share gains in all of the top 25 markets and 95% of the top 125 where we have a presence. We're #1 in 4 of the top 5. You can see the outsized gains in large California markets like Los Angeles and San Francisco; and in Florida, in Miami and Tampa. In large expansion markets like Boston, D.C. and Philadelphia, we have real momentum and now nearly 2% share from a standing start.

我们已在所有前25大市场中实现了份额增长，在我们有业务布局的前125大市场中，有95%的市场实现了增长。在前五大市场中，我们在四个市场位居第一。我们在加州的大型市场（如洛杉矶、旧金山）取得了显著增长，在佛州的迈阿密和坦帕也是如此。在波士顿、华盛顿特区、费城等大型扩张市场中，我们增长势头强劲，从零起步已取得接近2%的市场份额。

So I hope that all this detail has given you more insight and confidence into the branch and deposit strategy. But stepping back to wrap up, 20% of our branch network is less than 10 years old, with more than \$160 billion of deposit opportunity embedded. And while we discuss branches maturing in 10 years being the steepest part of the curve, they, of course, have not fully matured, still showing accelerated growth for many years after. And to that end, we have another 10% of our network that is between 10 and 15% years old, with -- 15 years old, with a further \$50 billion of deposit opportunity. Of course, nothing is in the bag, but that is a pretty serious tailwind.

我希望这些细节让你们对我们的分行与存款战略有了更深入的了解和更强的信心。总结一下，当前我们20%的分行网络是在过去10年内建立的，其中蕴藏着超过1,600亿美元的存款增长潜力。虽然我们常说分行的“成熟期”是建成后10年之内最陡峭的增长阶段，但这些网点尚未完全成熟，很多仍在持续加速增长中。此外，我们还有10%的分行网络建成时间在10至15年之间，其中还蕴含着约500亿美元的存款机会。当然，这一切还未板上钉钉，但显然这是一个非常强劲的顺风因素。

It isn't just the branches. It's also the outperformance of customer and account growth, too, as we continue to invest across the country and serve local communities. As you know, we aim to be the bank for all, investing in products to meet the unique needs of diverse customer segments. When customers are in the right product for them, we see greater satisfaction, higher wallet share and better retention. We've been focused over the last few years on growing relationships with starter and low mass customers and are making material progress with an 11% CAGR. And these segments now represent 1/4 of all our accounts.

我们的增长并不仅仅来自网点，客户数和账户数的强劲增长同样起到了重要推动作用。随着我们持续在全国投资，深入服务本地社区，我们的目标始终是成为“全民银行”，不断开发能满足多元客户群体独特需求的产品。当客户使用到真正适合他们的产品时，我们会看到更高的满意度、更大的钱包份额和更强的客户留存率。过去几年，我们特别聚焦于初阶客户和低资产客户群体，并已取得显著进展，年复合增长率达11%。目前，这一客户群体已占我们账户总数的四分之一。

Another focus is the affluent segment, and we introduced JPMorgan Private Client, a new tier in our product continuum, to deliver an elevated banking experience that deepens into wealth.

另一个重点群体是富裕客户群体。为此我们推出了“JPMorgan Private Client”——这是我们产品体系中的一个全新层级，旨在为客户提供更高阶的银行体验，并进一步延伸至财富管理服务。

In small business, we're growing at a healthy 9% CAGR across segments and covering more of our larger clients with business relationship managers, launching new value-added services and tools like invoicing, payroll and customer insights. And for smaller businesses, we are maniacally removing points of pain and friction to make banking with us seamless and easy, driving the NPS for this segment up 8 points since 2022.

在小企业业务方面，我们实现了9%的年复合增长率，涵盖多个细分群体。我们通过配备业务关系经理，覆盖更多大型客户，并推出如发票管理、薪资处理、客户洞察等全新增值服务与工具。对于规模较小的企业客户，我们正全力以赴消除痛点与摩擦，使他们的银行体验更加顺畅便捷，从而带动该细分客户群体的NPS自2022年以来上升了8个点。

So together with our branch investments, these product and segment strategies, we'll continue to fuel outsized growth and underpin our path to 15%.

因此，结合我们的分行投资、产品布局和细分市场战略，我们将持续推动强劲增长，为实现15%的市场份额目标打下坚实基础。

Moving then on to Card. With an 11% CAGR in sales and 6% in loans, we've gained 110 basis points of sales share and 90 basis points of lending share over the last 5 years. And so far, 2025 looks like a continuation of this growth. Relative to our 20% outstanding share ambitions and the path to get there, it's also helpful to zoom out and have a broader and longer-term context on the next page.

接下来谈信用卡业务。在过去五年中，我们的消费额年复合增长率达11%，贷款余额增长率为6%，分别带来了110个基点的消费市场份额增长和90个基点的贷款市场份额增长。到目前为止，2025年的表现延续了这一增长趋势。对比我们“信用卡贷款余额市占率达到20%”的长期目标，下一页将提供更宏观、长期的分析视角。

So here, looking back over the last decade, we delivered about 210 basis points of underlying core OS growth. And I say underlying and core because we have made a pro forma adjustment to the starting point to normalize for the elevated level of prior cycle balance parkers. We spent the first half of the decade risk managing these balances down to focus on highly engaged, spend-centric customers.

回顾过去十年，我们实现了约210个基点的核心贷款余额（OS）份额增长。我之所以强调“核心”与“调整后”，是因为我们对起点进行了备考调整，剔除了上个周期中高余额但低活跃度客户的影响。在那十年的前半段，我们主要通过风险管理逐步压降这类余额，转而聚焦于高活跃度、消费驱动型客户。

So 200 basis points over 10 years is about 20 basis points a year. Now looking at the last 5 years, it was a game of 2 halves. Obviously, share gains were not our objective function at all during the pandemic. Risk management was. In fact, we ceded a little bit of share during that highly volatile time. So the 90 basis points over 5 years is, in fact, 100 basis points over just the last 2 years, and we have the wind at our backs. Looking forward, we expect to deliver growth above that long run 10-year average, a function of investing in marketing, risk optimization as well as in our segment and product strategies.

换算下来，这相当于每年提升约20个基点。再来看近五年，其实可以分成两段：在疫情期间，市场份额并不是我们的目标，风险控制才是重点，因此那段时间我们略微让出了一些份额。过去五年整体增长90个基点，其实其中100个基点是在近两年实现的，说明当前我们势头强劲。展望未来，凭借我们在市场营销、风险优化、细分市场与产品策略上的持续投入，我们预计将实现超越过去十年年均水平的增长。

On the top right, our growth in priority segments is outpacing the total, and we have room to run. As good as we are, we know we are not #1 in affluent or small business. These segment strategies are supported by a marketing engine that is now delivering 30% more new accounts each year versus 5 years ago and with capabilities that maximize the benefit of our owned channels and \[on-us] data, including targeting qualified borrowers with enhanced line strategies. So this is a longer-term ambition, but we did it before, and I think we'll do it again in less time.

右上角图表显示，我们在重点客户群体中的增长速度已超过整体增速，且增长潜力仍然充足。尽管我们整体表现出色，但在高净值与小企业客户这两大细分市场上我们尚未登顶。这些细分战略依托于强大的营销引擎支撑，与五年前相比，我们每年新增账户数已提升30%。此外，我们有效利用自有渠道与\[on-us]第一方数据，实施更优的额度配置策略，精准触达优质借款人。这一目标具有长期性，但我们过去已成功做到一次，我相信这次我们能用更短时间再次实现。

So let's talk about segment strategies. Here too, growth is fueled by a comprehensive product set serving customer needs across all segments. We have award-winning cards and continue to innovate, driving record top-of-wallet behavior, up 5 points since 2019. We have been focused on growing the premium and small business segments and are making progress with double-digit growth rates in each.

最后来看细分市场战略。我们在此领域的增长同样得益于面向不同客户群体的全面产品体系。我们的信用卡产品屡获殊荣，持续创新，推动了“首选支付工具”占比再创新高，自2019年以来提升5个百分点。我们尤其聚焦于高端客户与小企业客户两个细分群体，目前两者均实现了双位数的增长率，正在稳步推进。

Marketing and account acquisition is to card what branches and bankers are to banking. We have been consistently acquiring 10 million new high-quality accounts a year over the last 3 years. And each vintage we're booking is larger and more valuable, outperforming the last in OS contribution, driving a more than 80% increase in vintage lifetime value or more than 40% per account since 2019.

营销与账户获取在信用卡业务中的地位，就如同网点与客户经理在银行业务中的作用。过去三年中，我们每年稳定获取1,000万个高质量新账户。每一批新客户的“入账批次”（vintage）都比上一批更大、价值更高，对贷款余额（OS）的贡献也更强，自2019年以来，其生命周期价值增长超过80%，按单账户计算增长超过40%。

In Card, we think of long-term performance like a stacking of pancakes, one vintage on top of the other. Acquisition costs, as you know, are amortized upfront over 1 year. Each vintage matures and peaks in performance by year 3, by which time it's paid back. Then it stabilizes, consistently delivering annuity value thereafter. So it's the strength of each vintage and the cumulative effect of consistently stacking them that drives growth and outperformance, and our recent vintages are delivering a 2x return on investment.

在信用卡业务中，我们将长期表现比作“摞煎饼”——每一批新客户如同一张新煎饼，逐层堆叠。你知道，获取成本在第一年即被摊销。每一批客户在第三年达到表现高峰，并实现成本回收，之后则进入稳定阶段，持续创造类似年金的收入。因此，正是每一批客户质量的强劲，以及持续堆叠所形成的复利效应，共同驱动了我们的增长与业绩超越。我们近期的客户批次投资回报率已达2倍。

Moving on to commerce. We've doubled both travel and offers volumes since launching Connected Commerce in 2021. And we will reach or come close to reaching our \$30 billion volume target this year and \$2 billion revenue run rate target at the end of next year, obviously market dependent. Looking forward, we have a massive opportunity within our customer base.

接下来讲互联商务。自2021年推出Connected Commerce以来，我们在旅行和优惠业务的交易额都实现了翻倍增长。今年，我们有望实现或接近300亿美元的交易额目标，并在明年底达到20亿美元的收入年化运行率（run rate）目标，当然具体结果仍取决于市场环境。展望未来，我们在现有客户群体中仍拥有巨大的潜力。

On the right, you can see that there is nearly \$450 billion of addressable spend on our cards today, growing at a 10% CAGR. And we're only capturing a little over 5% of that share on our platform, although up 240 basis points. But we have ambitions to double that to 10% over time and achieve a \$3 billion revenue run rate. We earn fees and commissions when we introduce brands to customers on our platform. These are merchant funded, but the value accrues to both merchants and customers.

右图显示，我们信用卡上的可触达支出规模已接近4,500亿美元，年复合增长率达10%。但目前我们平台捕捉到的份额仅略高于5%，尽管相比过去已提升了240个基点。我们的目标是在未来将该份额翻倍至10%，并实现30亿美元的收入年化运行率。当我们在平台上将客户与品牌连接起来时，会从商户端收取佣金与费用，尽管费用由商家承担，但由此带来的价值惠及商户与客户双方。

We are proud of the progress and the results to date. Starting at the top, in travel, 4.2 million customers booked travel with us last year, and we secured the #3 spot as a consumer leisure travel provider in the U.S. We are looking to increase the share of Chase-branded card spend on our platform, which has already increased by more than 200 basis points. And we have scaled our hotel collection, The Edit, now representing more than 1,000 premium hotels offering our customers exclusive benefits and experiences. We're also expanding dining benefits, recently launching exclusive reservation access for Sapphire Reserve card holders on OpenTable.

我们对目前取得的进展和成果感到自豪。以旅游业务为例，去年有420万客户通过我们预订旅行，使我们跻身美国消费者休闲旅游服务提供商前三名。我们正努力提升Chase品牌信用卡在我们平台上的消费占比，目前已提升超200个基点。我们推出的酒店系列“The Edit”也已扩展至1,000多家高端酒店，为客户提供专属权益与定制体验。同时我们还在拓展餐饮权益，近期推出了Sapphire Reserve卡用户在OpenTable上的专属预订通道。

A core part of the value proposition of the commerce platform is also to drive value to merchants by connecting our premium customers to brands they love. We launched Chase Media Solutions last year, driving strong growth, with 16 million customers activating an offer and \$12 billion of spend on the platform, growing at a close to 30% CAGR since launch.

互联商务平台价值主张的核心还在于：通过将我们的高端客户与他们喜爱的品牌连接起来，为商户带来价值。我们去年推出了Chase Media Solutions，业务增长迅速，目前已有1,600万客户激活了平台优惠，总消费额达120亿美元，自推出以来年复合增长接近30%。

Payments. Payments are core to everything we do because they are core to everything our customers do. Those who move the money have an outsized influence on where it's stored, invested and how it's borrowed. We moved \$6.4 trillion in payments outflows last year, growing at an 11% CAGR. And today, 80% of noncard payments are digital, up 16 percentage points over 5 years, reflecting an industry-wide transition away from checks. We continue to invest in a wide suite of payment and lending options to give our customers flexibility in how they pay and borrow.

最后是支付业务。支付是我们所有业务的核心，因为它是客户金融生活的核心。谁掌握了资金流动，谁就更有可能影响这些资金的储蓄、投资和借贷路径。去年，我们处理的支付出账总额达6.4万亿美元，年复合增长率为11%。如今，非卡类支付中有80%已实现数字化，较五年前提升了16个百分点，反映出整个行业正快速脱离支票支付。我们持续在多种支付与借贷解决方案上进行投资，以为客户提供更灵活的支付和融资选择。

More than 6 million customers are now using our range of Pay Over Time solutions across credit and debit cards, originating nearly \$11 billion last year, up 25%, once again showing how quickly our products and innovation scale across our incumbent customer base.

目前已有超过600万客户在信用卡和借记卡上使用我们的“延后付款”（Pay Over Time）解决方案。去年该类产品的发起总额接近110亿美元，同比增长25%，再次体现了我们产品与创新在既有客户基础上的快速扩展能力。

Wrapping up this page, no conversation on payments would be complete without a discussion on trust and security, which we believe is a competitive advantage. Notably, our fraud and scam claims rate on Zelle is down 26% year-on-year as we invest in customer education, protection and prevention capabilities.

在本页总结中，不讨论信任与安全就无法完整地讲述支付业务。而这正是我们的一项竞争优势。值得一提的是，在我们加大对客户教育、防护和预防能力的投入下，我们在Zelle平台上的欺诈与诈骗索赔率同比下降了26%。

Let's move on to Wealth Management. Wealth Management reached \$1 trillion in client investment assets last year, outgrowing the competition. Yes, strong market performance in First Republic contributed, but the largest driver was net client acquisitions and flows. As we've doubled our assets, so we've doubled revenue. The secret sauce is in leveraging the branches and delivering a deep integration between banking and wealth. 90% of new advised clients were referred by bankers and the significant investments we've made are paying off, ranking #1 -- now ranking #1 -- and I've got to say this is J.D. Power's words, in J.D. Power Wealth Management Digital Experience for Investor Satisfaction last year.

接下来讲财富管理业务。去年，我们的客户投资资产达到了1万亿美元，实现了领先于同行的增长。诚然，First Republic的市场表现强劲也有助力，但最主要的驱动因素是净新增客户和资金流入。我们的资产翻倍，收入也随之翻倍。这背后的秘诀在于充分利用分行网络，并实现银行与财富管理的深度整合。90%的新顾问客户来自银行客户经理推荐，我们在这方面的重大投入已经显现成效：去年我们在J.D. Power发布的“财富管理数字体验客户满意度”榜单中排名第一——这不是我说的，这是J.D. Power的原话。

We are sitting on a gold mine with material opportunity in our franchise and real momentum. On the right, we are drafting off the customer base in Consumer Banking, with 5.5 million loyal affluent banking households. Last year, nearly 19% of them invested with us, up 160 basis points over 2 years. We are also penetrating the broader customer base more deeply, up 60 basis points over 2 years. This is great progress, but we're just getting started and are setting a new long-term ambition to double the business again and reach \$2 trillion in client investment assets.

我们的平台蕴含巨大潜力，当前增长势头也非常明显。右侧图表显示，我们依托消费者银行的客户基础，拥有550万个忠诚的富裕家庭银行客户。去年，近19%的这部分客户选择在我们这里投资，相较两年前提升了160个基点。我们在更广泛客户群体中的渗透率也提升了60个基点。这是非常可喜的进展，但我们刚刚起步。我们的新长期目标是再次将业务翻倍，客户投资资产达到2万亿美元。

There's an opportunity in both advised and self-directed channels to realize this ambition. In advised, the branch referral model that I mentioned is strong, acquiring a record more than 150,000 first-time adviser relationships last year, and last quarter set yet another record. We now have 15 J.P. Morgan Financial Centers open to deliver an elevated banking and wealth experience. It's early, but using Columbus Circle as a proof point, we are seeing both stronger growth and great customer satisfaction.

要实现这一目标，我们将在“顾问引导型”与“自主投资型”两个渠道同时发力。顾问渠道方面，前述的分行转介模式表现强劲，去年我们新增超过15万个首次财富顾问客户关系，创下新高；刚过去的一个季度又刷新了纪录。目前，我们已设立15家J.P. Morgan金融中心，旨在提供高阶银行+财富的整合体验。虽然还处于初期阶段，但以Columbus Circle为例，我们已看到更强劲的增长与卓越的客户满意度。

For clients who have a full-service relationship with us, we currently capture 55% of their investment wallet, which is good. But opening a self-directed account is a strong deepening moment, adding an incremental 5 percentage points of wallet share. We're enhancing the self-directed platform to capture more of this opportunity. But today, we feel like we have a very well-positioned offering for the vast majority of our core clients.

对于与我们建立全方位服务关系的客户，我们目前能捕捉其投资资产的55%，这个比例已经不错。但当客户开设自主投资账户时，我们可以进一步提升5个百分点的钱包份额，这是客户关系深化的重要时刻。我们正在增强自主投资平台的功能，以抓住这一机会。目前我们认为，我们已为绝大多数核心客户群体提供了具有竞争力的产品与服务配置。

2024 was a breakthrough year in that respect. We launched detailed performance reporting, trust accounts, fractional shares, leveraged ETFs and more. And while today, only 5% of Wealth Management clients have a self-directed relationship with us, it is up 50 basis points year-on-year. And we know that half of them have an SDI relationship somewhere, and that's our opportunity.

2024年在这方面是一个突破之年。我们推出了详尽的投资绩效报告、信托账户、零股交易、杠杆ETF等多项功能。虽然目前仅有5%的财富管理客户与我们建立了自主投资关系，但这一比例已同比提升50个基点。我们也知道，这些客户中有一半在其他地方拥有自主投资账户，这正是我们要抓住的机会。

In addition to branch superpowers and the significant investments we've been making in products and digital experiences, our growth is also a function of investing in human advice. We've been consistently adding training and supporting advisers year-on-year, up 37% since 2019. That means about half of our advisers are tenured less than 5 years, which is a tailwind for investment growth just as our new branches are for deposits.

除了强大的分行网络和我们在产品与数字体验上的重大投入外，增长也来自我们对人力顾问服务的持续投入。自2019年以来，我们每年都在增加培训与支持，顾问队伍规模增长了37%。这意味着大约有一半的顾问从业时间不到5年，就像新开分行有助于带动存款增长一样，这支年轻顾问队伍也为投资业务增长带来顺风。

But just adding advisers is not enough. We need to make them more and more productive. And you can see in the chart on the right, we're delivering on that, with 2x flows per adviser since 2019.

但仅仅增加顾问数量还不够，我们必须不断提升他们的生产力。右图显示，我们已经在这方面取得成果：自2019年以来，单个顾问所带来的资金流入量提升了2倍。

So a couple of minutes on Home Lending. Home Lending is critically important to our customers in key moments of their lives. It is a relationship product. When affluent customers get a home loan with us, we deepen relationships with them in deposits and investments. That said, scale matters, and we are not currently at scale in originations in the smallest mortgage market for decades and, in part, a result of our risk appetite decision to not fully participate in large parts of the market, notably government mortgages and brokered loans.

接下来说说住房贷款业务。住房贷款在客户人生关键时刻具有重要意义，它是建立客户关系的重要产品。富裕客户在我们这里获得住房贷款后，我们能进一步深化其在存款与投资方面的关系。不过，规模也很重要。而目前，我们的贷款发放规模尚未达到理想水平，原因之一是当前正处于数十年来最萎缩的抵押贷款市场，同时我们出于风险偏好决定不全面参与部分市场，尤其是政府支持贷款和经纪贷款。

So it's tough right now, but we are controlling what we can control. We have rightsized the business, with production headcount down 35% in a market down 35%. Pound for pound, we've made each Home Lending adviser about 15% more productive in purchase originations in a market down 25%. We've invested in digital engagement, including the Chase MyHome platform, which now has over 9 million unique users, driving leads and conversion. And we recently launched a home equity product this past quarter, which is ramping nicely.

当前环境确实艰难，但我们正专注于可控的方面。我们已对住房贷款业务进行了“合理瘦身”，在市场整体下滑35%的背景下，我们的贷款发放团队人数也同步减少了35%。在购房贷款方面，我们实现了“单位产能”提升，在市场下跌25%的情况下，每位顾问的发放效率反而提升了约15%。我们也在数字互动上持续投资，比如“Chase MyHome”平台，目前已拥有超过900万独立用户，正在有效转化潜在客户。我们最近还推出了住房净值贷款产品，目前增长势头良好。

Our improved digital capabilities and predictive modeling positions us to take advantage of refi opportunities as and when rates come down. In the meantime, we have plans to drive market share at the margin in key markets and within our risk appetite.

我们不断提升的数字能力与预测建模技术，将使我们能在未来利率下行时有效把握再融资机会。同时，我们也计划在关键市场中、在我们风险容忍度范围内逐步提升市场份额。

On servicing, we are the #1 own servicer at least for now. We have reduced direct expenses meaningfully, also down 35% and achieved scale through MSR acquisition. We have maintained best-in-class cost per performing loan and continue to deliver customer satisfaction at record high levels, up 10 points since 2019.

在贷款服务方面，我们目前仍是美国排名第一的自持服务商。我们已大幅削减直接费用（同比下降35%），并通过收购按揭服务权（MSR）实现规模效应。我们持续维持业内领先的每笔正常贷款服务成本，同时客户满意度也持续创下新高，自2019年以来提升了10个点。

On the far right, you can see the challenging macro environment. And of course, we can't defy gravity. The business, including First Republic, is delivering a 21% return on equity today, with our core business at 9% fully loaded and 11% if you include the benefit of relationship value to deposits and investments. But on a marginal basis, those same returns are firmly in the teens, which is why we believe we will achieve our target in a more normal market. And while it's tough right now, Sean, if there's one thing the Home Lending team has, it's grit.

最右侧图表展示了当前充满挑战的宏观环境。当然，我们无法违背经济重力。包括First Republic在内的整体住房贷款业务目前实现了21%的股本回报率（ROE）；其中核心业务在计入全部成本后为9%，若将客户关系对存款和投资带来的附加价值计算在内，则为11%。但在边际层面，这些回报率稳定处于10%以上，这正是我们相信在更正常的市场环境中能够实现目标的原因。虽然当下确实艰难，但Sean，如果住房贷款团队有一个核心优势，那就是：韧性。

Last but not least, the story for Auto is the same insofar as it's an important part of the complete product set, with value propositions that serve the needs of consumers, dealers and manufacturer partners. Last year, our digital experience were ranked #1 by J.D. Power for customer satisfaction among noncaptive lenders for auto finance consumers, and 13 million unique users engaged with our car shopping platform. Franchise dealers in the U.S. are the backbone of the industry, and we cater to all of their needs, including floor plan lending and treasury, and we're getting faster at decisioning and funding contracts, increasingly using AI.

最后但同样重要的是汽车金融业务，它也是我们完整产品体系中的重要组成部分，价值主张面向消费者、经销商及制造商合作伙伴。去年，我们的数字化体验在J.D. Power评选中荣获“非附属汽车金融机构客户满意度第一”称号。同时，我们的汽车交易平台吸引了1,300万独立用户访问。美国的特许经销商是该行业的支柱，我们为其提供全方位服务，包括地板融资（floor plan lending）和财资管理等。同时，我们在信贷审批和资金发放效率方面持续提升，越来越多地引入AI技术。

Finally, we are the private label captive finance provider of choice for industry-leading manufacturers. Our captive partners performed well last year. Jaguar Land Rover ranked #1 in dealer satisfaction among premium captive lenders, and Subaru ranked #2 among mass according to J.D. Power.

此外，我们还是多家领先制造商首选的“专属品牌金融服务”合作伙伴（private label captive finance provider）。我们的合作表现亮眼：捷豹路虎在J.D. Power评选中获“高端附属金融机构经销商满意度第一”；斯巴鲁在大众市场附属金融机构中排名第二。

Last year, we saw \$40 billion in originations, up 19% since 2019, outperforming the market where financed units were down 14% relative to our 8%. Importantly, lease originations are now rebounding, with origination mix now approaching 2019 levels. Of course, the portfolio will lag that recovery, and so we expect lease mix to normalize up over time. As portfolio mix evolves, returns will improve towards the target, which brings us up to date.

去年，我们汽车贷款发放总额达到400亿美元，较2019年增长19%，远优于整体市场：行业中融资车辆数量下降14%，而我们仅下降8%。值得注意的是，汽车租赁发放业务正在回暖，其占比也逐步回归2019年的水平。当然，资产组合表现会滞后于发放节奏，因此我们预计未来租赁占比将逐步正常化。随着组合结构改善，回报率也将朝目标水平进一步提升。这就把我们带到了当前时点。

The strength that I described in Auto continued through the first quarter. And in fact, as you know, March and April saw a pull forward of car buying, supported by current dealer inventory. The tariff situation is still fluid, and pretariff inventory will be depleted in the next month or 2. We're closely monitoring the whole ecosystem, but we remain committed to the Auto market and being there for all of our stakeholders.

我们在汽车金融中展现的强劲势头也延续到了第一季度。事实上，正如你们所知，3月和4月由于经销商当前库存的支撑，汽车购买出现提前释放的现象。关税问题仍具不确定性，目前的免税库存预计将在未来1至2个月内耗尽。我们正在密切关注整个生态系统的动态，但我们将坚定不移地深耕汽车市场，全力支持所有利益相关方。

Okay. We are in the home stretch. How are you all doing? Back to this page. This is what success looks like, realizing bold long-term growth ambitions. We aspire to reach a 70 NPS across the business. And in fact, as I said, across every aspect, each business, channel, product and interaction with our customers. We are outpacing the competition and making steady progress towards 15% deposit share and 20% share of Card outstandings. We are setting goals to double again each of Connected Commerce and Wealth Management: for Connected Commerce to reach 10% of addressable spend on our platform and to reach \$2 trillion of client investment assets in Wealth Management. The environment is very challenging for Home Lending and uncertain for Auto right now, but we remain committed to these businesses through the cycle.

好了，我们快到最后一部分了。大家还跟得上吗？回到这页幻灯片——这就是我们对“成功”的定义：实现大胆的长期增长目标。我们希望整个业务体系的NPS能达到70分，实际上正如我之前提到的，我们希望在每一个维度——每个业务线、每个渠道、每个产品与客户的每次互动中都能实现这个目标。我们正在超越同行，并稳步迈向15%的存款份额和20%的信用卡贷款余额份额。我们也制定了新的目标：将互联商务和财富管理业务再次翻倍——互联商务要实现在我们平台上的可触达支出占比达到10%；财富管理客户投资资产达到2万亿美元。尽管目前住房贷款市场非常严峻、汽车业务环境也不确定，但我们将坚定地跨周期坚守这些业务。

So closing for CCB, ending where I started, we operate from a position of strength. We are a growth franchise, and we're gaining share broadly across businesses. We're not big braggers, but we are proud of this performance. Don't let the rankings on the page for you. We are also not complacent. There's always more to do, and we are getting at it, consistently investing in bankers, advisers, branches, marketing, tech, AI and customer experience more broadly.

最后对CCB做个收尾，也回到我一开始说的重点——我们是在强劲基础上运营的一家增长型企业。我们是一家增长型平台，且正在各项业务中持续扩大市场份额。我们不是爱自夸的人，但对这样的成绩感到非常自豪。不要被这页幻灯片上的排名“欺骗”了，我们可一点也不自满。我们深知还有很多工作要做，我们正在加速推进，不断投资于客户经理、顾问、分行网络、市场营销、技术、人工智能和更广义上的客户体验。

These investments and the discipline we bring to them will differentiate us in the years to come. And while the environment today is highly uncertain, we have a track record of proven capital liquidity and risk management. We are excited, and we are confident about the future and remain committed to a 25% return through the cycle.

我们在这些领域的持续投资，以及对投资执行的一贯纪律性，将在未来几年真正拉开与同行的差距。尽管当下环境高度不确定，但我们在资本、流动性和风险管理方面拥有可靠的历史表现。我们对未来感到兴奋，并充满信心——我们将继续致力于实现跨周期25%的回报目标。

And with that, I'll take Q\&A. And before I do, the CCB management team is sitting at the table here, and we have 3 new leaders, Sean Grzebin for Home Lending, Sean; Leslie Wims Morris for Auto; and Peter Muriungi for Connected Commerce, previously in Auto. They will be here for the rest of the morning. So anything you want to do or ask them you can. But for that, we have questions now.

说到这儿，我准备开始问答环节。在这之前介绍一下今天在场的CCB管理团队，我们有三位新领导加入：住房贷款业务的Sean Grzebin、汽车金融业务的Leslie Wims Morris，以及原汽车业务、现互联商务业务负责人Peter Muriungi。他们将在上午剩余时间里继续在现场，大家有任何问题都可以找他们交流。现在，欢迎提问。

Operator

Please welcome to the stage, Mary Callahan Erdoes.

主持人

请欢迎Mary Callahan Erdoes上台。

Mary Erdoes   CEO of Asset & Wealth Management and Executive VP

Good morning, everybody. For those of you who I don't know, I'm Mary, I'm CEO of the Asset and Wealth Management business. Welcome to the last Investor Day in this building. We are super excited, thanks to the work of David Arena and his an amazing team that next year, we will be across the street in the first all-electric tower in New York City. So we are really looking forward to that. I always enjoy going through asset and wealth management because for all of you, I think it's really like a microcosm of the whole company. In many ways, and the highest returns. Thank you, Jamie.

Mary Erdoes

大家早上好！还不认识我的朋友，我是Mary，现任资产与财富管理业务的CEO。欢迎大家来到我们在这栋大楼里举办的最后一次投资者日。多亏了David Arena和他杰出的团队，明年我们将搬到街对面，那是纽约市第一座全电力办公大楼，我们对此感到无比兴奋。我一直很喜欢讲述资产与财富管理业务，因为我认为，它在很多方面就像公司整体的一个缩影，同时也是带来最高回报的板块之一，谢谢你，Jamie。

But in so many ways, it's just -- it's the center of so many things. We are every day investing in the companies that are taken public by the investment bank. We're helping the CFOs of those companies to invest their liquidity in JD's money market fund business. We're helping the CEOs, including our Board members and the like to think about how they're running their companies and what we can do on their personal balance sheets, taking their 10b5-1 programs, sending them through choice trading desks, executing those or we're taking all the great things in the commercial bank and the leads that they have and just helping them with simple banking and figuring that out. And actually, through Jen's beautiful -- Jen Roberts that is over here, on the side, those beautiful branches, that last picture up there, which Marianne did mention, are all these new beautiful branches that they have developed.

但在很多方面，它更像是各种业务的中枢。我们每天都在投资投行承销的上市公司；我们帮助这些公司的CFO将流动资金投资到JD（Jamie Dimon）旗下的货币市场基金中；我们协助CEO们——包括我们董事会成员等——思考如何管理公司，以及我们如何优化他们个人资产负债表，比如执行10b5-1交易计划，通过我们的优质交易台予以执行；或者我们将商业银行的各种业务与线索导入，为客户提供基础银行服务，协助他们更好地理解与运用。而实际上，通过Jen Roberts（她今天也在现场）带领团队打造的这些美丽分行——就是Marianne刚才展示的那些照片里的新型分行——它们也起到了关键作用。

There are 2,000 private banking clients that walk into those branches every day. So it's a pretty amazing thing for all of us, and we're really looking forward to going through all of this. One thing I'd just point out, one of you in the room nicely pointed out that asset management is really worth focusing on because, in fact, it can give you a 4 to 6x multiple lift. And that is if you do it right. Why is that? Because it's a recurring revenue business that's very capital light. And so that is exactly what we have here today. The problem is it's been very hard for many of our competitors to do that inside of a bank. But our story is very different. So let's take a look here.

每天都有2,000位私人银行客户走进这些分行。这对我们所有人来说都是一件了不起的事，我们也非常期待接下来的内容。有一点我特别想强调——在座有位朋友指出，资产管理确实值得重点关注，因为如果做得好，它能带来4到6倍的估值提升。为什么？因为这是一个具有经常性收入特征、资本占用非常低的业务模式。而这正是我们今天拥有的商业形态。问题在于，很多同行在银行体系内难以成功实现这一点，但我们的故事完全不同。我们现在一起来看看。

We are, first and foremost, a fiduciary. We are the fiduciary arm of the business. We now have over \$6 trillion in assets that are entrusted with us from the sovereign wealth funds of the world to the first-time savers that we talked about in the wealth management spectrum when they walk into a branch and they think about investing in the stock market or the bond market. We are a reliable growth business. And so no matter what we do, our North Star is generating alpha. That is all we do all day long. We obsess about every single basis point. And when you see these numbers of these 80% peers, 80% of our mutual funds beating peers over a 10-year time period, 10-year track records don't get made overnight. And every single moment of every single day is focused on that.

首先，我们的本质是一家“受托人”（fiduciary）。我们是公司中真正的受托责任执行者。目前我们管理的资产超过6万亿美元，从全球主权财富基金到首次进入投资市场的储户——那些走进分行、考虑投资股市或债市的新客户，都会将资产托付于我们。我们是一家可靠的增长型业务平台。无论我们做什么，我们的“北极星”始终是创造阿尔法（超额收益）。这就是我们每天全身心投入的工作——我们对每一个基点的收益都锱铢必较。当你看到我们80%的共同基金在10年期间的表现优于同业，要知道，这样的10年业绩不是一蹴而就的，而是每一时、每一刻不断努力的成果。

But to keep that growth going, that third bullet there under investing for growth is the most important for us. We have to keep innovating, and we're going to talk about that through this presentation. There are 7 areas that we think will make the difference for the future, and that's what we'll make up 2025's investment spend, which Jeremy referred to at the beginning, that will be our largest investment spend ever in the history of Asset and Wealth Management. So it's important to focus on. Why can we have the largest investment spend in our history because the results speak for themselves here at the bottom.

但要保持这种增长势头，我们最关键的，是在“增长投资”部分的第三个要点：持续创新。这一点对我们来说至关重要，接下来的演讲我会围绕这一点展开。我们认为有七大重点领域将决定未来的发展，这也构成了2025年的投资方向——正如Jeremy在开场提到的，这将是资产与财富管理业务有史以来最大规模的投资预算。因此值得高度关注。为什么我们能有史以来最大规模的投资？原因就在这页底部的数据：业绩已经说明一切。

You can see just over the past 2 years, we've had \$1 trillion in new clients giving assets to us, and we have a very healthy 34% margin and a 34% ROE. And that allows us to reinvest back in the business. And so let's look at those 4 pillars that Marianne touched on. They are the same 4 pillars for us. We are complete. We have always been the best private banking business in the world. And arguably, we are now the most sought after active manager in the world. There are more assets flowing to us than anyone else in this space. We are global. It's not just the 150 countries that we help clients in. It is also the on-the-ground research, which is more important today than ever.

你们可以看到，仅在过去两年，我们就新增了1万亿美元的客户资产托管，同时维持了健康的34%利润率和34%的股本回报率（ROE）。正是这些成果使我们得以继续反哺业务进行再投资。现在我们来看看Marianne提到的四大支柱，对我们来说也完全适用：我们是“完整”的（complete）。我们一直是全球最优秀的私人银行业务提供商之一，现在可以说，我们也是全球最受追捧的主动型资产管理公司之一。在这个领域，流入我们平台的资产多于任何一家同行。我们是全球化的，不只是业务覆盖150个国家那么简单，更关键的是我们“在地化”的研究能力——在当今环境下，这一点前所未有地重要。

When you think about the portfolio managers that we have sitting on the ground in Shanghai, they are the ones driving how we think about auto stocks in the U.S. or European retail stocks. And so that becomes very important, particularly in the environment that we live in. And we're very diversified. You know that we're firing on all cylinders in each region, in each sector, in each channel. But like we heard from Marianne, this is very much like her business, a recurring revenue business, actually 73% of our revenues come from recurring revenues. That means we're making money for shareholders, 365 days a year. And we are at scale.

比如我们在上海的投资组合经理，是他们引导我们如何看待美国汽车股、欧洲零售股的投资方向。这种“在地+全球”模式变得尤为关键。我们也高度多元化，在各地区、各行业、各渠道全面发力。正如Marianne刚才讲的，我们的业务模式高度相似——我们也是一个以经常性收入为主的业务平台，事实上我们73%的收入来自经常性来源。这意味着我们一年365天都在为股东创造价值。同时，我们已具备规模优势。

In fact, in asset and wealth management, size is not our goal. That is not our primary driver. Our driver is to be the best if, in fact, you are trying to be the best and you grow, that's the best equation you can have. And in fact, now at that very bottom on the far right side, we do have three \$1 trillion franchises that I'm going to walk through. It's also very important to note this little banner on the bottom. That's how it all happens. It's about talent management and Robin Leopold, who's right here, who runs the greatest HR department around along with Nelle Miller, who is our asset and wealth management business. They're the ones that help us to retain 95% of our top talent. That is not an easy thing to do in today's competitive environment, and we do that.

事实上，在资产与财富管理领域，规模并不是我们的终极目标，也不是我们主要的增长驱动因素。我们的目标是做到最好。而如果你专注于做到最好，同时实现增长——那就是最优解。实际上，如右下角所示，我们现在已拥有三个“万亿美元级别”的业务平台，接下来我会一一介绍。同时请注意这页最底部的横幅：这一切的背后关键在于“人才管理”。Robin Leopold（今天也在现场）领导着业内最强的人力资源团队，Nelle Miller则负责我们资产与财富管理领域的人才建设。正是他们帮助我们实现了95%的核心人才留任率——在当前竞争激烈的人才市场，这绝非易事，但我们做到了。

So let's look at the metrics. Each year, I show you this page, and these are really our KPIs. This is what makes up what we think are the growth drivers of what's going to happen in the future. And I really want you to think about it as 2 different businesses. On the left is the asset management business that's run by George Gatch and on the right is the Global Private Banking business. On the left, we are ranked #5 as an overall asset manager, but the number that I focus on is the second one, which is the active management number. We are now #3 and we are closing the gap to #1 because of our flows.

接下来我们来看关键指标。每年我都会展示这页图表，这些就是我们的核心KPI，是我们认为驱动未来增长的关键要素。我希望大家把它当作两个独立的业务来看：左侧是由George Gatch领导的资产管理业务，右侧是全球私人银行业务。在资产管理部分，我们目前在总体规模上位列全球第5，但我最关注的是第二项——主动管理业务。在这方面我们已升至全球第3，并且正在凭借强劲资金流入迅速缩小与第1名的差距。

If you look at these numbers of where we've doubled our assets, it's really come from the work Andrea Lisher is right here upfront, she's runs the North America team across both the retail, the funds business there and the institutional business, along with Keith Cahill, who I saw standing right there in the very back. So that is super exciting. And in fact, that number on the bottom, AM client facing, the 842 that makes us one of the largest sales forces in the industry.

如果你看我们资产翻倍背后的数据，真正推动这一增长的，是Andrea Lisher（她今天就坐在前排），她领导着北美团队，涵盖零售、基金以及机构客户业务，还有Keith Cahill（我刚才看到他在后排站着）。他们的努力带来了令人振奋的成果。事实上，底部提到的“AM面向客户员工数”达到了842人，使我们成为业内规模最大的销售团队之一。

On the right is the business that's run by Dave Frame, the U.S. Private Bank as well as Adam Tejpaul, who runs our International Private Bank. And those numbers are really quite tremendous. AUS has nearly tripled, international pretty close by. If you just look at that clients with \$100 million plus, those are the centimillionaire that's up 2.6x over this time period. But really importantly, the number that's most impressive on this page is the one that Marianne touched on, and that is Chase Wealth Management assets up 3.2x.

右侧是由Dave Frame负责的美国私人银行业务以及由Adam Tejpaul领导的国际私人银行业务。这部分的数据非常惊人：客户资产总额（AUS）已接近三倍增长，国际业务增长也非常接近。如果我们聚焦于那些拥有1亿美元以上资产的“百亿级富豪”客户群体，其数量增长了2.6倍。但本页中最令人印象深刻的数字，其实是Marianne刚才提到的：Chase财富管理资产增长了3.2倍。

Kristin Lemkau, who is over here on the side, along with the great work that she does with her team, Eric Tepper and company have driven that number to something we never would have imagined. And that is a question that was actually asked by one of you in the pre Investor Day questions that you put out in your notes, which was tell me, how does this actually work? How does the asset and wealth management investments work in the Chase branch. And this is a really important question.

Kristin Lemkau（她今天也在现场）带领她的团队，连同Eric Tepper等人所做的出色工作，将这一数字推到了一个我们曾未设想过的高度。而这其实也回应了投资者日前你们在会前笔记中提出的一个问题：这些资产与财富管理的投资是如何在Chase分行中落地运作的？这是一个非常重要的问题。

It is all run by this man right here, Martin Marron, who runs what we call wealth management solutions. We think it is really important that no matter where you come into this institution, you get the best advice. We don't want anyone to get a different level of service because of your level of wealth. We want everyone to benefit from JPMorgan's 200 years of investing. And that's why Carla Hassan, who I saw here, who runs our global marketing came up with that little picture on the right, which is now in every one of these branches that we are doing for these wealth centers that Stevie Baron. And it's said very simply, bank with Chase, and invest with JPMorgan. And in fact, that is the equation that is making all of this work. And if you look at the bottom here, you see that while all of these numbers have been very strong, in the past 5 years, there's been a real inflection in these CAGRs in terms of what we've done in AUS, revenues and pretax and that's what we're going to talk about.

整个运作由Martin Marron负责，他领导我们称之为“财富管理解决方案”的业务单元。我们认为，无论客户通过哪个入口进入摩根大通体系，都应该获得最优质的建议。我们不希望因为客户的财富水平不同，就提供不一样的服务。我们希望每一位客户都能从摩根大通200年的投资经验中受益。也正因如此，我们的全球市场负责人Carla Hassan（今天也在现场）设计了右侧这个简单而有力的标语，现在你可以在我们所有“财富中心”型分行看到它，由Stevie Baron负责落地实施。标语非常简洁：“Bank with Chase, and invest with JPMorgan.”（在Chase办理银行业务，在JPMorgan进行投资。）这就是驱动这一切运转的核心逻辑。如果你看页面底部这些数字，在过去5年中，无论是AUS、收入还是税前利润的年复合增长率（CAGR），都呈现出真正的拐点式跃升，这正是我们接下来要展开讲解的部分。

And so there are many more opportunities for growth. The only thing I would just want to say on this page is this is about the industry. These bars are all about industry growth. And all of them are growing quite nicely. But in every single case, JPMorgan is growing faster than the industry in both revenues, you can see the 16x for us versus the 10 in the industry, 12 for us versus the 6 in industry, same that you have -- sorry, that was assets in revenues in the middle.

所以，我们还有很多增长机会。我在这一页唯一想强调的是：这些柱状图展示的是整个行业的增长趋势，各个板块都在良性增长。但无一例外，JPMorgan在每一个维度上的增长速度都快于行业平均水平。比如在收入方面，我们增长了16倍，而行业是10倍；在资产方面，我们增长了12倍，而行业是6倍。抱歉，我刚刚说反了——中间是收入，前面是资产增长。

And if we just keep doing this, we will continue to gain share. This is a highly fragmented business that we are in, in the asset and wealth management. And so you can see over on the right, this is really our path to \$10 trillion. I think if we continue to invest the way that we have been, I don't see any reason if our investment performance holds up that we wouldn't be able to get those, but we're going to have to do some continuous investments, and that's what I'm going to walk you through here on this page.

如果我们持续保持目前的做法，我们就会继续扩大市场份额。资产与财富管理行业高度分散，因此增长空间巨大。你可以看到右侧的图表，这展示了我们通往10万亿美元资产规模的路径。如果我们能够像过去一样继续投入，同时投资业绩保持稳定，我看不出有什么理由不能实现这个目标。当然，这需要我们持续进行投入，而接下来这页幻灯片就是我将要向你们介绍的内容。

This is our expense walk just like everybody else's. Five years ago, when we invested our investment dollars were \$1 billion, that was very large for us. Last year, that was \$2.3 billion. And this year, like I said, will be our highest ever at \$2.7 billion and that's going to be very exciting. And thanks to Ben Hesse and his team and also Julie Harris, who runs global operations for everyone around the world, who's standing in the back of the room. She drills into us every day, create and build something once and use it many, get rid of all of these extra expenses where people are trying to do that in different areas.

这页图表是我们的“费用变化图”，和其他业务一样。五年前，我们的年度投资预算是10亿美元——对当时的我们来说已是大手笔。而去年，这一数字增长到了23亿美元。今年，如我所说，将达到创纪录的27亿美元，这非常令人振奋。这要感谢Ben Hesse和他的团队，也要感谢Julie Harris（她今天就在会场后方），她负责我们的全球运营。她每天都在强调一个理念：“一次性创建并多次复用”，清除那些重复、分散、不必要的成本结构。

And so they are maniacally focused on getting rid of all this waste so that we can reinvest. And that's even as we continue to grow volumes and efficiencies. We are able to plow back all of those dollars into here. And as we think about the 7 investments that are on the right-hand side, we are also completely obsessed about every single measurement of an ROI to make sure that it is the next best marginal dollar of your money to be able to put back in this business. And so that's what Ben and his team relentlessly do.

所以他们以“疯狂”的专注度削减浪费，以便我们能将资金重新投入到真正有意义的领域中。即便在我们不断扩大业务量、提升效率的同时，我们仍能将节省下的资金悉数回投。右侧是我们接下来聚焦的七大投资方向。我们对于每一笔投入的ROI（投资回报率）都有极致的考量，确保每一块钱都是最优的“边际再投资”——这是Ben和他团队每天执着追求的目标。

And on these next 7 pages, I'm going to hit on those 7 areas. So let's look. The first and foremost important investment we make every single morning of every single day is investing in active management. So that's the heart of what we do. We generate alpha. And we are not distracted by being in the commoditized lower-yielding passive strategies. We can buy that beta, but we focus on the alpha. And thank God we have because today's market environment is telling us that you're best off not being tethered to backward-looking benchmarks. And in fact, that's why so many assets are actually flooding to us.

接下来的七页我将逐一讲解这七个领域。我们每天早上第一件要投资的事，也是我们最核心的业务，就是“主动管理”。我们专注于创造阿尔法（Alpha），这是我们的核心使命。我们并不被商品化、低收益的被动策略分散注意力。Beta（被动收益）我们可以买，但我们追求的是Alpha。感谢我们的选择，因为当前市场环境已经证明，投资者不应死守那些“回顾式”的基准指数。而也正因如此，大量资产才不断流向我们。

And I'm very proud to say that now we have these \$3 trillion operations. And actually, all of them are sitting here. So Paul Quinsee's active equity management is right here, the fixed income and, of course, the money market fund business. And if you look at what we are, we are not #1 in AUM, but we are #1 in flows. And for shareholders, that's the most exciting thing with tremendous upside here.

我非常自豪地说，如今我们在主动管理下的总资产已达到3万亿美元，涵盖股票、固定收益以及货币市场基金等业务。而这三大板块的负责人今天都在现场：Paul Quinsee负责主动股票管理，还有固定收益与货币市场基金的团队。如果从资产管理规模来看，我们还不是第一，但在资金净流入方面我们是第一。对股东而言，这才是最令人振奋、增长潜力巨大的地方。

How does it happen? There are 3 main ingredients. The first and foremost is on the bottom left, research. We believe that career analysts are treasured athletes, not want to be portfolio managers. That is a very important cultural difference of how we run this place. We have 500 career research analysts. We spend \$500 million a year in annual spend, and that's one of the largest on Wall Street for the asset management business. We cover 5,000 companies. We have 11,000 company meetings every year, that's two every hour of every single 24-hour day, and most of them are held in our Shanghai office covering all of these new and exciting companies that are developing in other places in the world. One of the points about being a career research analyst, Rob Bowman, who is our tech analyst, who Jensen Huang actually said was the first person to get it back about 10 years ago.

这是如何做到的？主要有三个要素。第一点，也是最重要的，在左下角：研究能力。我们认为，“职业研究员”是珍贵的“顶级运动员”，而不是“想成为投资经理的人”。这是我们文化中一个极为重要的差异点。我们拥有500名职业研究员，每年在研究上的投入高达5亿美元——这是华尔街资产管理行业最大的投入之一。我们覆盖5,000家企业，每年举行11,000场公司会议，相当于每天24小时每小时两场。其中大多数会议是在我们位于上海的办公室举行，聚焦全球其他地区新兴且充满活力的公司。举一个例子，我们的科技分析师Rob Bowman，就是英伟达CEO黄仁勋口中“十年前第一个看懂这家公司”的人。

He said, working at JPMorgan, our relationships with CEOs and CFOs are very different from the competition, especially in technology, where Lori Beer and her whole team start to use the products in technology, that gives us a frontline client view of the companies that we're investing in, that's priceless for us. And so that research alpha, combined with what I call risk alpha, that's where Gregg Gunselman and Ashley Bacon, run the independent risk management of this team and give us those insights into asset management and then service alpha over on the right. Service alpha is what I call packaging the research. Many of you know Michael Cembalest, who runs the eye on the market piece. Guide to the market is something that Dr. David Kelly had created. Actually, it's in most use when markets are quite volatile. And in fact, just year-to-date. We've had 1.8 million of our slides be used by independent FAs. Those are FAs at some of your companies that you work for as well as independent RIAs around the world. So it's very impressive.

他说，在摩根大通工作，我们与CEO和CFO的关系与其他竞争对手非常不同，尤其是在科技领域，Lori Beer和她的团队会亲自使用这些技术产品，这让我们能以客户的第一视角来了解我们所投资的公司，这种洞察对我们来说是无价的。因此，这种“研究阿尔法”与我所谓的“风险阿尔法”相结合——后者来自Gregg Gunselman和Ashley Bacon，他们负责团队的独立风险管理，帮助我们从资产管理中获得深刻见解——再加上右侧的“服务阿尔法”。“服务阿尔法”是我对研究内容“打包”能力的称呼。你们中的许多人可能认识Michael Cembalest，他主持的是《Eye on the Market》栏目；而《Guide to the Market》则是由David Kelly博士创建的，在市场波动时期使用率尤其高。事实上，仅在今年初至今，我们的幻灯片就被全球各地的独立财务顾问（FAs）使用了180万次，其中包括你们所在公司的一些顾问以及其他独立注册投资顾问（RIAs）。这非常令人印象深刻。

And then the last is just events. It is not a small thing for us. Judy Miller who's here runs our global events team and along with Alison Weiskopf for Asset and Wealth Management. We run events every single day around the world and those are our added benefit for our clients to come in and really be trained on the things that we think about asset and wealth management. But in addition to this alpha, we have to package it and that's one of the most exciting growth areas now today, which is in these active ETFs. There's a significant, significant growth area. It's not to say that the mutual funds business won't grow that first chart there is the next 5 years of mutual fund growth looking at about 6%. But the active ETF business is where you're going to get this explosive growth.

最后一点是我们的活动运营，这对我们来说绝非“小事”。在座的Judy Miller负责我们的全球活动团队，与资产与财富管理业务的Alison Weiskopf一同，每天在全球各地举办活动。我们为客户提供这些增值服务，帮助他们系统地理解资产与财富管理的理念与趋势。除了研究阿尔法，我们还必须将其“产品化”，而这正是当前最令人兴奋的增长领域之一——主动型ETF。这是一个巨大的增长市场。当然，这并不是说共同基金就不会增长——我们对未来五年共同基金的增长预测约为6%。但真正的爆发性增长将来自主动ETF业务。

And JPMorgan is a top 5 active manager, both in net new flows for mutual funds and in ETFs. And I think that's really important. One is not cannibalizing the other, which is a worry that -- the Street has and that's really because Jed who's right here on the front. You pushed very hard when you said we are not going to run this separately. We're going to have the same PMs, run a mutual fund and an ETF. It's going to be embedded in what we do. And with that, we are growing quite fast. You can see the numbers on the left. We are #2 in AUM in the active ETF space, but our flows are #1 and clients will end up closing that gap for us quite quickly.

摩根大通目前在共同基金与ETF两类产品的净新资金流入方面，均位居全球前五。这一点非常重要，因为它说明这两个业务并没有“相互蚕食”——这是华尔街上普遍存在的担忧。实际上，这要归功于Jed（他今天也在前排），他坚持推动我们不要把ETF和共同基金分开管理，而是要由同一位基金经理同时负责ETF和共同基金，让主动管理“内嵌”在我们的核心投资流程中。正因如此，我们发展得非常迅速。你可以看到左侧的数据，在主动ETF领域，我们的资产规模位列全球第二，而在资金流入方面，我们是第一——客户最终会帮助我们快速弥合这个差距。

If you look at the bottom, this is just the extent of the reach here. Actually, you can see Travis Spence in the middle of all those pictures. It's a little bit like a Where's Waldo. He's head of our global ETF business, but he's in Toronto, in London and very importantly, in Shanghai. You can see we have 3 of the 5 largest ETFs in the world. But I think more importantly, 24 that are over $1 billion, and most of these are very young, less than 3 years old. So you should expect those to have really explosive growth probably growing at about 5x that in the coming years.

如果你看幻灯片底部，就能感受到我们业务的全球触达能力。你甚至可以在那些照片中找到Travis Spence（有点像在玩“威利在哪里”），他是我们全球ETF业务负责人，出现在多伦多、伦敦，尤其是上海。我们现在拥有全球5大主动ETF中的3只；更重要的是，我们已有24只ETF产品的资产超过10亿美元，其中多数产品的“年龄”还不到3年。你可以预期这些ETF将在未来几年实现爆发式增长，可能是现在规模的5倍以上。

Alternatives, equally important for us run by Anton and Jed, who are here in this front table. This is going to define the next decade of the Asset Management business, I believe. And I don't think it's because alts will be off on the side, it's because alts will be part of everything we do in the traditional space. Across our competitors, you see this very often. You see traditional players trying to buy alternative managers. And then they find a way to deal with the cultural differences of the two. You also see traditional managers -- sorry, alternative managers trying to grow the traditional sales forces breaking into those RIA coverage models which, as I said, Andrea and her team have been doing for years.

另类资产业务同样至关重要，由Anton和Jed负责，他们今天也坐在前排。我认为，另类资产将定义未来十年的资产管理行业。但这并不是因为“另类投资”会在主流之外形成孤岛，恰恰相反，它将深度融入我们传统资产管理的每一个环节。在整个行业中你能看到这样的趋势：传统资产管理机构收购另类投资公司，然后再试图协调两者之间的文化差异；同时也看到另类投资机构试图打造传统渠道销售力量，尤其是打入RIA顾问渠道——而正如我刚才说的，Andrea和她的团队多年来一直在这方面深耕布局。

We do both of those, and we do them very well. And so it's really for us to take the legacy of what we've been doing. In the real estate business, we've actually bought back Chad Tredway, who had been here in the commercial bank for many years in the real estate side from Soros where he had gone, he has turned this business around. Just in the past year, we are #1 in investment performance against all our peers, and we are #1 in flows. So very exciting to reboot that business. We have a 30-year track record coming very soon in the alternative solutions business, with Ashmi and Steve.

我们同时也做到了上述两点，并且做得非常出色。接下来，我们的目标是继承并扩大我们已有的优势。在房地产业务方面，我们成功“召回”了Chad Tredway——他曾在我们的商业银行从事房地产业务多年，后来去了Soros基金，现在他重返公司，并彻底重振了这项业务。仅在过去一年，我们的投资业绩在同行中排名第一，资金流入也排名第一。因此，我们对重启这一业务感到非常振奋。在由Ashmi和Steve领导的另类投资解决方案业务中，我们即将迎来30年的业绩记录里程碑。

We have dominance in the infrastructure space growing quite quickly with everything that Paul, Ryan and Matt LeBlanc are doing. And then at the bottom, we have a lot of the new areas, Patrick McGoldrick, with Steve Squinto and others are giving us great opportunities to invest in the growth private equity business. But I think the most important is the middle, and that's what we talked about. It's very hard to create these distribution areas. We have 4 of them. Together, the 4 are the killer for being able to get out there in this space.

我们还在基础设施领域取得了领先优势，并正在迅速扩张——这是Paul、Ryan和Matt LeBlanc团队共同努力的成果。而在页面底部，则是我们新进入的领域：由Patrick McGoldrick和Steve Squinto等人推动，我们正获得大量投资成长型私募股权的机会。但我认为最关键的是中间这部分——我们之前提到的渠道覆盖能力。这个行业中要建立分销渠道是极其困难的，但我们已经拥有4大渠道，它们共同构成了我们在这个领域强有力的推进器。

In the institutional side, obviously, we've been there for years, covering 60% of the world's largest clients. In the private bank, we already put $2 billion to work every single month in alternatives. In the RIA space, I mentioned, we cover 70% of them already. But look at this bottom one Chase. You see a little bar, you can't see anything in the alts, they're so hungry for alternatives. And with these evergreen strategies, you see the green in the evergreen. That's really the retail side that's going to grow. That is just ripe to be able to offer to those clients, and we're really excited about that. And I have no doubt the horsepower of all of this coming together will help us to move in those league tables on the bottom and everything that KK and Jen and Anton do every day is going to help us.

在机构客户方面，我们多年深耕，已覆盖全球60%的最大客户。在私人银行，我们每个月都会有大约20亿美元投资于另类资产。在RIA（注册投资顾问）渠道，我们也已覆盖70%的市场。而如果你看最底部的Chase零售渠道，你会发现另类资产部分几乎看不到柱形图——但这并不是因为它不重要，而是因为客户对此极度“渴望”，供给还远远不够。而通过“evergreen”策略（即开放式、长期可持续投资结构），你可以看到那一抹绿色正在萌芽——这代表了零售端即将爆发式增长的潜力。这是我们极为看重的增长机会。我坚信，随着所有资源的协同发力，我们一定能在下方的市场份额排名中更进一步——感谢KK、Jen和Anton每天的辛勤努力，他们的工作将为我们打开更多可能。

The fourth area is probably the most exciting from the M&A that we did. You got -- we got the question that Jeremy got the question about M&A. This has been our best performing one. Just back in 2022, we got into the equity share plan business by buying global shares and Vince La Padula and Dan are standing right back there. They now run this really exciting part of what we do. And we've actually never gone from 0 to fourth place that fast in anything. And it's really important to see the clients that we have onboarded here. In fact, in the last 2 years, the number of clients we've onboarded has been larger than all of our -- than our largest two competitors combined.

第四个领域，是我们并购中最令人兴奋的一项。你们之前提问时也问到M&A的表现——这一笔是我们迄今为止回报最好的。2022年我们通过收购Global Shares进入股权激励计划服务领域。Vince La Padula和Dan（他们现在就在会场后方）负责领导这一业务板块，如今已经成为我们最具活力的板块之一。而且，在我们业务发展史上，从“零”起步跃升至行业第四的速度，从未如此之快。我们所服务的客户阵容也令人惊叹——在过去两年里，我们新接入的客户数量已经超过了我们两大竞争对手的总和。

But in many ways, I mentioned Robin and her HR team, we onboarded workplace for JPMorgan employees, and that was no small feat. You can imagine what we put them through. And when we did, it actually all of the technology we plowed into it has led us to have so many more clients on the outside want to now be part of it. We have had twice the number of RFPs year-to-date that we've had in the last year and many more than years before, but the real growth is going to come from that right side.

这其中还有一个关键节点，我要特别提到Robin和她的人力资源团队：我们为JPMorgan自己的员工实施了这套股权激励系统的上线，这可不是件小事——你可以想象我们对系统的要求有多高。而也正因为我们为内部员工打造了这样一套极致体验的系统，越来越多的外部客户现在也主动希望加入这个平台。今年迄今为止，我们收到的RFP（招标请求）数量已是去年的两倍，远超以往任何年份。但更大的增长潜力，其实来自页面右侧的部分（即待续内容）。

This whole equation is to give us leads in the business, to give leads to the commercial bank, leads to the investment bank and very importantly, leads to the whole wealth management continuum of clients. And in fact, when you look at all the cap tables in the world, 42% of them are in the innovation economy. That's something that Doug worked really hard to create post the SVB and FRC changes that occurred in the environment and took John Cena and Melissa Smith and really had them lean into this. And I think that that's where we're going to get some pretty explosive growth here, but we're going to need more people to do it. And so the talent is the fifth out of the seventh areas that we invest in.

这一整套逻辑最终是为了帮助我们在业务中获取“线索”（leads）——无论是为商业银行、投资银行，还是更广泛的财富管理客户体系提供线索。事实上，如果你看全球所有的公司股东结构表（cap tables），其中有42%都属于创新经济领域。这是Doug在SVB（硅谷银行）和FRC（第一共和银行）事件发生后努力推动的一项战略，他联手John Cena和Melissa Smith积极投入其中。我相信这个领域将带来爆炸式增长，但要实现这一点，我们需要更多的人才。因此，“人才”是我们七大投资领域中的第五项。

Very, very important as we continue to grow this. We have now 9,600 advisers when you take the whole wealth management equation of Kristin's World and Dave and others in the wealth management space. But the real cracking of the code is the middle. You can hire these people or you can grow these people. And in fact, now half of our new advisers come from growing them from within. And if you look at that right-hand side, you say, how is that possible that you made that productivity go up and it is a combination of one thing I'm going to show you here, which is training. And the next thing that I'm going to talk about in 2 slides, which is our technology investing and what AI is doing for this. That productivity up 3.4x is got to be industry-leading. I don't know how other people measure it.

随着我们不断扩张，这一点显得尤为关键。当前，如果你将Kristin领导的整个财富管理团队、Dave的私人银行团队等全部计算在内，我们已经拥有9,600名财富顾问。但真正破解增长密码的，是中段——也就是你可以选择外部招聘，也可以选择“内部培养”。如今，我们新增顾问中有一半是通过内部培养而来。如果你看右边的图表，你可能会问：我们是如何将生产效率提升至原来的3.4倍的？答案是两个关键因素：一是我们接下来要展示的“培训”；二是两页之后我会谈到的“技术投资”，特别是AI所带来的赋能。生产效率提升3.4倍，毫无疑问是行业领先水平，我不知道其他机构是否也能做到这一点。

Jeremy Geller, who's sitting in the front row, said, "You can't just train them with outsourced training, okay? We need more training and we got to do it ourselves. And in fact, we take some of the best frontline advisers, and we say, "You're going to go train them." You're going to dedicate your time to do it. This picture on the bottom is crazy, okay? This is Nelle Miller's team, her investors and the Minnesota team and the California team. They went over and volunteered their time to land in Hong Kong to teach Harshika's new -- although those are new hires in Asia. They spent a week in Hong Kong, giving their time to be able to do that. And that's priceless.

Jeremy Geller（今天也坐在前排）曾经说过：“你不能只靠外包培训来培养他们，我们需要更多的培训，并且必须亲自去做。”事实上，我们确实是这样做的——我们会从最优秀的一线顾问中选拔出部分人，让他们转身成为教练，全职负责培训工作。幻灯片底部这张照片真的很棒：这是Nelle Miller的团队、来自明尼苏达和加州的成员。他们自愿前往香港，花了一整周时间为Harshika团队刚入职的亚洲新员工提供培训。这种“用时间与经验灌注文化”的方式是无价的。

And so today, we now have these 25-year olds that are coming online that are just as productive as our 30- to 35-year-old mid-career hires. And I think this is really great both for them, but also for our shareholders. It's a formula that's now repeatable, scalable, and it works globally. And you can see that in these lines. The lines are getting thicker. There's more of them and then they're getting steeper. And I think that after the early years of the J curve, the payoff is happening much faster, something that we measure on a daily basis. And so two more areas that are involved in technology, but this one is really important. These were 2 others of our acquisitions that we did. So Ted Dimig and Jed and Ben actually came and made the case that if you're going to get this flywheel going of personalization at scale, you need some fintechs, a lot of you debate whether fintechs can work inside of a bank. And in fact, 55ip and OpenInvest have done just that.

如今，我们已经可以看到，许多25岁的年轻顾问，其生产力已经与30至35岁之间的中生代顾问相当。我认为这对他们本人是一种成功，对股东来说更是极大的利好。这是一套可复制、可扩展的全球化培养体系。你可以从右侧这些趋势线上看到：线条越来越粗、数量越来越多、坡度也越来越陡。这说明：经历最初几年的“J曲线阶段”之后，回报的兑现速度在明显加快——我们每天都在跟踪这些指标。而接下来还有两个领域也与技术相关——其中一个尤其值得一提：它源于我们最近完成的两项收购。Ted Dimig、Jed和Ben曾一同提出，如果我们想真正激活大规模“个性化”的飞轮，就必须依靠某些金融科技企业。很多人都在质疑：金融科技公司是否真的能在银行体系内有效运行？而55ip与OpenInvest已经成功证明：答案是可以的。

This whole equation, we had 1 million accounts just a couple of years ago. We're now at 2 million, and we're on our way to explosive growth, 55ip, just one of those engines right there, brought in $25 billion in assets last year, and that takes that whole flywheel to about $380 billion, making us in the top 3. But like many of these acquisitions, we spend a lot of time future-proofing it and [ JPmorganizing ] it. And thank God we did because what's happened over these past couple of months in terms of volume explosion, wouldn't have happened had we not fortified it.

整个系统的增长速度令人惊叹：仅几年前我们还有100万个账户，如今已经翻倍至200万个，并仍处于爆发性增长的轨道上。仅以55ip为例，去年它就为我们带来了250亿美元的新增资产流入，从而让整个“个性化投顾飞轮”的规模达到了3,800亿美元，使我们跻身全球前三。但和我们大多数收购案例一样，我们花了大量时间对其进行“未来强化”和“JPMorgan化”整合。感谢我们当初做了这些准备——否则我们根本无法承接过去几个月所涌现出来的交易量激增。

We were averaging about 14 million trades a day. We got to April, we had 28 million trades on an average day. Three of the 4 highest trading days we've ever had were in the month of April. And in fact, across all of our trading that we do in Asset and Wealth Management, that same is true that we have been fortifying and using actually AI on our trading desk for the past 8 years. And so now we're up to roughly $260 billion that we trade every day across Asset & Wealth Management. But as we headed into the month of April, that went up to $500 billion a day with no stress on the system. So we're ready for more. And that's exactly where tech and AI take us, which is the last of the 7 areas that we invest in. You can see that we have gone from removing the no joy work, everything that we talked about in Jeremy's opening to actually taking this into development, taking it into anticipatory help. And all of the work that Teresa and Lori are doing on the tech side is fantastic.

我们过去的日均交易量约为1,400万笔，到了四月，日均交易量飙升至2,800万笔。在我们有史以来交易量最高的4个交易日中，有3天都发生在4月。事实上，在我们整个资产与财富管理板块的交易业务中，我们已经连续8年在交易桌上使用并强化AI能力。现在我们每天在AWM板块处理的交易金额大约是2,600亿美元，而在4月高峰期间，这一数字一度上升到5,000亿美元——而系统完全没有出现任何压力。这正体现了我们在技术和人工智能方面的投入所带来的成果，也是我们七大投资领域中的最后一个。正如Jeremy开场所说，我们已经从“消除无意义工作”转向“开发自动化系统”和“前瞻性辅助决策”。Teresa和Lori在技术端所做的工作堪称杰出。

Our Head of Tech, Michael Healy, he said, we have immersed ourselves in an AI-first mindset across all that we do. And AI is not just a tool, it's reimagining workflows and it's changing the loading capacities for thousands of people on the front line and in the back. And Smart Monitor is probably one of the ones that will resonate with you all most. It's the one that is used for our analysts and our portfolio managers. Honestly, I was totally wrong. I thought that you would be the last people to use this stuff because you think I'm too smart for AI, and I have to do it my way. It saves so much time. It takes millions of all of the call reports the queues the case, the stock moves on any given day. It spits it out in the ratio that you like versus the ratio that you like and you think about how that lifts you.

我们的首席技术官Michael Healy曾表示：“我们在所有工作中都已全面转向以AI为优先的思维方式。”AI不仅仅是一个工具，它正在彻底重塑我们的工作流程，极大地提升了成千上万前中后台员工的承载能力。其中最具代表性的产品是“Smart Monitor”，也许在座各位会对它特别有共鸣——它是为我们的分析师和投资组合经理打造的。老实说，我一开始认为你们会是最后一批使用这类工具的人，因为你们常常自信地认为“我太聪明了，不需要AI”。但事实是，它真的节省了大量时间。它能够处理数百万份电话会议记录、业绩摘要、个股波动数据，并以你喜欢的比率、风格输出简报，极大地提升了研究效率。

It also follows the stocks that are not within your universe that you might not have put into your portfolio and keeps an eye on those on any given day. And so it's really taking things that take days and weeks and turning them into seconds. It's super powerful. But the one that's caught the most attention is Connect Coach. And this is the one that's been lifting those advisers and the productivity, okay? Connect Coach is basically anticipates next best action, but very personalized to any particular situation. So you take April. Stocks are gapping down on one day and they're going in the opposite direction in the next day and what's happening, the best advisers we have are already knowing exactly what to do. It's intuitive to them. They know how to think about something that's down low, maybe you swap it out for tax purposes, et cetera.

它还能追踪那些你原本不在关注范围内、也未纳入投资组合的股票，持续进行日常监控。换句话说，它把原本需要几天甚至几周才能完成的工作压缩成了“几秒钟”。非常强大。但真正引发最多关注的是“Connect Coach”——它显著提升了顾问的生产效率。Connect Coach 是一种“个性化前瞻建议系统”，可以预测“下一步最佳行动”。比如在4月，股票可能某天大幅下跌，隔天又反弹。最优秀的顾问自然知道该如何应对——例如考虑税务换仓策略等。但Connect Coach则能为他们补充更多细节，提供更广泛的客户视角。

But actually Connect Coach is saying, "Hang on a second. These stocks, 48 of them just hit an all-time high. And here, here are the clients that haven't donated to their local alma matter this year and a lot of them need some help this year. So please push this button here and it will tee up a DAF for you and how to do that donation. These stocks have hit an all-time low, the very -- the day before. And what do you do? You want to capture the moment where it's in the low. You want to call the JPMorgan board members. You want to say JPMorgan stock just hit this low. Think about quickly putting it in a DAF because we know you're going to hold it, and that future appreciation will go to the next generation. All of that stuff is automated.

Connect Coach 不仅仅是告诉你“下一步该干什么”，而是能说：“等等，这48只股票刚刚创下历史新高；与此同时，这批客户今年还没给母校捐赠，而今年他们又确实有捐赠意愿。你可以点这个按钮，我们会自动为你生成DAF（捐赠建议基金）设立流程。”再比如说，某只股票昨天刚创下历史新低，系统也会提示你：“该股票现在正处低位，请尽快联系某些JPM董事会成员，让他们考虑趁机将这只股票纳入DAF进行捐赠——因为他们会长期持有它，将来升值部分就能传承给下一代。”这一切，都是自动化完成的。

You walk away from a morning meeting. Michael Barakos has just covered international European equities. And you said to yourself, who doesn't have European stocks. It's already up on your desktop. It shows you -- who doesn't have it, it shows you the fund fact sheets and it gives you a sample e-mail or talking points to call clients. So all of those things are super, super important. And that has only been with 4,600 private banking advisers, and Saturday, we launched it to Kristin Lemkau's 7,600 CWM employees. And now we will be at about 17,000 by the end of the year.

你刚从早会出来，Michael Barakos刚分析完“国际欧洲股市”，你脑中想：哪些客户还没配欧洲股票？打开电脑，答案已经出现在你屏幕上——哪些客户缺配，对应的基金信息表、客户沟通话术、电邮模版也都已经自动准备好。所有这些能力，真的非常关键。而这些功能目前仅部署在4,600名私人银行顾问手上，而上周六我们刚刚将它推广到Kristin Lemkau领导的7,600名CWM员工。到今年年底，我们将覆盖大约17,000名员工。

On the right-hand side is a case that was written about Lori and Teresa's work, but also about how Ashley Bacon has wrapped this in risk management and Mike Urciuoli and his team. I see Vrinda in the back, some of the investors went, some of the -- the whole team went up to teach the case. It is now a required curriculum, final case for your first year. We went up and saw it, I'm actually on the Harvard's AI Board up there. And they said it was just one of the most exciting things. And the reason that they made it, the final case for first years to be taught is because they just think what we're doing is so different. There's a quote on the bottom, and it was basically said in almost every one of the 10 sections that we were teaching.

右侧展示的是一个由哈佛商学院撰写的案例，聚焦Lori和Teresa在AI方面的实践，同时也涵盖了Ashley Bacon如何将其纳入风险管理，以及Mike Urciuoli和他的团队的努力。我看到Vrinda今天也在现场，我们有些投资团队成员也参与了教学。这套案例现在已经成为哈佛MBA一年级学生的“必修终结案例”。我们亲自前往参与，我本人也是哈佛AI理事会的成员。他们说这是最令人振奋的案例之一。之所以将其设为全年级的压轴案例，是因为他们认为我们在做的事与众不同。幻灯片底部那句引用在十个班次的教学中几乎都被学生提及：

It says -- we've looked at AI across many different industries in JPMorgan's playing an entirely different game.

这句话是：“我们研究了AI在多个行业的应用，但JPMorgan玩的，是完全不同的一场比赛。”

And so that takes us to a game. These are games. I just wanted to take a minute to talk about sports as just a way to crystallize the way this whole firm comes together. And I think there's no better way to do it than in the sports business. Sports used to be an individual investment. So 60% of the major sports team owners around are private banking clients. We've been helping them for many, many years. But as it's grown in size, we've had to help them to think about how do you handle that size, how do you lend into that size, both for monetizing the investments you have, so your family members can get some money as well as getting new clients who can be able to afford these new teams. And so Brian Kantarian and Umar created now what is the largest lending business on the private banking space, actually 10 of the last 15 major sports transactions that have happened in the world, have been financed by JPMorgan. So that's really exciting.

接下来我想稍作延伸，以体育产业为例，来说明JPMorgan各业务如何协同作战、创造价值。体育产业早年是典型的“个人投资”领域，如今全球60%的顶级体育队伍拥有者都是我们的私人银行客户。我们已经为他们提供服务多年。随着球队估值水涨船高，我们必须帮助这些客户应对“大额资产配置”的难题——既帮助他们盘活已有资产、使家族成员获得流动性，又帮助新买家完成大额融资。于是Brian Kantarian和Umar联合打造了目前私人银行领域中全球最大的体育融资业务。在过去15笔世界级体育交易中，有10笔由我们提供融资支持，这让人非常兴奋。

We then moved into institutional buyers saying, wow, this is a really exciting asset class. Maybe I should be investing in it. But it's hard for the U.S. leagues to allow some of these sovereign wealth funds to be able to do that, JPMorgan advised on the very first sovereign wealth fund entering into one of the big 4 leagues. I'm actually getting off stage and going over the Middle East to see that client, right after this. That, combined with the fact we've already been investing in these private equity firms that are launching these sports funds, and we give access to our clients to have this. We then realized that the whole institutional world needs institutionalization. And so the stadiums became a very big deal. Many of you know much about having to increase fan base participation across a much nicer stadium and the service, et cetera.

之后我们又进入了“机构投资者”层面，许多机构开始意识到：体育产业是一类令人兴奋的新兴资产类别。不过，美国主要体育联盟通常不允许主权财富基金等投资者直接入股。JPMorgan为首宗“主权基金入股北美四大联盟球队”的交易担任了顾问。我今天发言结束后，就要启程前往中东拜访那位客户。此外，我们还通过投资体育类私募股权基金的方式，为客户提供参与机会。我们也意识到，整个“体育产业链条”本身需要被机构化管理——体育场馆就是关键一环。大家都知道，为了吸引更多粉丝，现代球场需要提供更好的体验、更高端的服务等等。

And so what we did was we took the investment bank's municipal finance expertise and the commercial bank's real estate expertise. And we took a guy named Zach Effron who is our Zach Effron and not Hollywood's Zach Effron. And he oversees now what has become the largest practice. In fact, 65% of the major financing developments have come through that team. You pull all of that together and you say, how do you make the magic. You make the magic because actually these sports teams are being valued based on media. JPMorgan's Investment Bank has had the #1 media practice forever. We are now into the media sports practice. And in fact, we landed and finished the largest completion of a controlled sports franchise ever in the history, which will hopefully change the face of the way sports are being dealt with.

为此，我们整合了投行的市政融资专长和商行的房地产融资能力，并委任了一位名叫Zach Effron（不是好莱坞那个明星）的同事来负责这一业务板块。他目前领导的团队已成为该领域全球最大的平台，目前全球65%的体育场馆开发融资项目均由他们主导。你也许会问，魔法从哪里来？答案是：体育队伍的估值如今越来越与“媒体权利”紧密挂钩——而JPMorgan投行一直是全球顶级的媒体行业顾问团队。我们已经进军“体育+媒体”领域，并刚刚完成史上最大的一笔体育控股权交易，这将可能彻底改变体育产业的运行方式。

And just importantly, that whole flywheel of people, they don't sit there and count the beans of like who gets credit for what I just talked to you about everything across all of the different lines of business. We do not tolerate that here at JPMorgan. We do not have side accounting groups that think about where those revenues get counted for. We are trying to win for the client. And in fact, that's what we're doing every single day.

最重要的是，在上述“飞轮”运转过程中，我们从不会去计较“哪条业务线”应该拿多少功劳。我们在JPMorgan不允许出现那种“分门别类抢业绩”的文化，我们没有那种按部门去拆分收益归属的侧账系统。我们唯一关注的目标，是如何为客户赢得胜利。而这，正是我们每天所做的事情。

So in conclusion, we have a business that is incredibly durable. It doesn't matter to us. On any given day, what is working and what is not. We don't need every single asset class, and we don't need every single revenue driver to be working really well to have asset and wealth management work really well. It's a periodic table just like asset allocation. And so that's what's taking us through. And in fact, on the bottom, as Jeremy pointed out at the beginning, clients continue to vote with their feet in the asset and wealth management business, that $1 trillion over the last 2 years is the equivalent of a top 25 asset management firm in and of its own right.

总结来说，我们的资产与财富管理业务展现出极强的韧性。我们并不需要每天每个资产类别都表现出色，也不依赖每个收入引擎都高效运转，就能保持整个AWM业务的良好表现。它更像是一张“资产配置的元素周期表”，稳定性来自多元结构。正如Jeremy在开场提到的那样，客户持续用脚投票——过去两年我们实现了1万亿美元的净资金流入，单凭这一数字，我们就相当于跻身全球前25大资管公司。

And you can see, over on the far side, we've expanded that list of who we compare ourselves to across our competitors to include alternative managers and the like and JPMorgan is proudly #2 overall, which takes me to this final and exciting slide presented to you by Ben Hesse. He is so incredibly proud of this. Why? Because asset management firms are viewed on flows and banks are viewed on ROE, and we think we've created the equation that hits both. And so you see on the left, we were sort of mediocre on both of those sides just 5 years ago. And our PTI back then was about $3 billion. We have doubled it. The size of the bubble is $7 billion. We're the only asset management firm to have doubled PTI of our publicly traded peers. And in fact, we are now really proud of where we stand on that chart, which concludes me to say we are going to continue to reiterate our through-the-cycle medium-term targets.

在右侧的图表中，我们把比较对象扩大到了包含另类资产管理公司在内的广义对手组中，JPMorgan目前在整体排名中自豪地位列第2。接下来我要展示由Ben Hesse精心准备的一页幻灯片，他对此非常骄傲。为什么？因为资产管理行业通常用“资金流入”衡量表现，而银行则用“股本回报率（ROE）”来评估绩效。而我们认为JPMorgan AWM同时兼顾了这两个维度。五年前，在这两个指标上我们都只是中等水平，那时的税前利润（PTI）约为30亿美元。如今我们已将其翻倍至70亿美元。在所有上市资产管理公司中，我们是唯一一家实现税前利润翻倍的企业。我们对目前在该图表上的位置感到非常自豪，也正因此，我们将继续坚持我们的“跨周期中期目标”。

A lot of you ask, why do you have these really high numbers and then these targets that you keep beating every year? And the reason is I don't want anyone on the management team to have anything else in their head, except for growth for you as the shareholders. I don't want them to be constrained by raising higher targets. And with that, we are going to continue to do this. The last point I want to make is when we went through our own red teaming, that's what we do across all of the different lines of business here as we're getting ready for you. This is a very important day for all of us. We talk to each other about what is the storyline and how do you think about it?

很多人会问：“你们的指标已经这么高了，为什么设定的目标还总是能超额完成？”原因很简单：我不希望管理团队脑中想着别的，除了为你们——我们的股东——实现增长。我不希望他们被不断上调的目标所束缚。因此我们会继续这样做。我想补充最后一点：在为今天这场盛会做准备的过程中，我们进行了所谓的“红队演练”（red teaming）——这是我们所有业务线都会做的自我挑战流程。对我们来说，今天是非常重要的一天，我们彼此之间进行了深入交流，确保战略故事线清晰一致。

And Matt Kane sat through our last final red teaming. And he said, "Just look at this business. He said, you take the benefits of the diversification that you already have. You take these new capabilities that I'm hearing about 55ip, customized portfolios, active ETFs. You take the leads you've got from Workplace. You take the new hires that you're ramping up and you take the AI innovation, and you will just continue to unleash the power that this business keeps delivering to our shareholders. And so we're going to do just that Matt. And with that, thank you. I'll turn it over to the investment bank.

在我们最后一次红队会议中，Matt Kane 全程参与。他说：“看看这门生意。你们拥有极致多元化的业务结构；你们具备55ip、定制化投资组合、主动型ETF等创新能力；你们还拥有Workplace带来的客户线索、新一代优秀顾问人才，以及快速落地的AI工具。这一切都将继续释放巨大的股东价值。”Matt，我们正是要做你所说的那些事。谢谢大家。接下来将由投行业务进行汇报。

Operator

Please welcome to the stage Doug Petno.

Douglas Petno Co-CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank

Good morning, everyone. On behalf of the entire team in CIB, thank you so much for joining us today. Troy and I are honored to lead this incredible franchise, and we're delighted to have you here. Today, I'm going to speak to the newly formed commercial and investment bank and our strategic priorities. Troy will update you on our efforts across security services, markets and Global Banking. And Max and Umar will provide a deeper dive into our payment solutions and their strategy for innovation and growth.

Troy and I will then come back up and give you an outlook for CIB's second quarter, and we'd be happy to answer any questions that you may have. So let's jump right in.

随后，Troy和我将回到台上，分享CIB第二季度的展望，并乐意回答大家的问题。那我们现在就开始吧。

So as a reminder, last year, we combined our 2 operating businesses: Commercial Banking and Corporate and Investment Banking to form the new commercial and investment bank. Our clients are growing, scaling and expanding globally at an accelerated pace, all while our competitive landscape continues to evolve. The new CIB is designed to best serve our clients, creating a single wholesale operating entity. Four business units tightly knit with a very clear strategy to be our clients' most important financial partner.

提醒一下，去年我们将商业银行业务与企业及投资银行业务合并，组建了全新的商业与投资银行（CIB）。我们的客户正在快速成长、规模不断扩大，并加速全球化，同时我们的竞争格局也在持续演变。新CIB的设计初衷是更好地服务客户，打造一个统一的批发业务平台。四个业务板块紧密协同，战略清晰明确：成为客户最重要的金融合作伙伴。

In Global Banking, we've aligned our leading investment banking, global corporate banking and commercial banking businesses to enhance our go-to-market approach and seamlessly serve our clients throughout their life cycle. The result is a franchise with incredible global reach, scale and capability. And we're winning. Our Investment Bank is a clear market leader in M&A, DCM and ECM, ranking #1 in all 3 last year. Our global corporate bank serves over 5,000 of the largest companies globally with about 1/3 of our clients headquartered outside of the United States. And in Commercial Banking, we are the #1 bank serving the middle market, and we've been #1 in multifamily lending over the last decade.

在全球银行业务中，我们整合了领先的投资银行、全球企业银行和商业银行业务，增强了市场拓展能力，能够在客户整个生命周期内无缝提供服务。结果是我们打造出一个具备卓越全球覆盖力、规模和能力的平台。并且我们正在赢得市场。我们的投行业务在并购（M&A）、债务资本市场（DCM）和股票资本市场（ECM）三大领域均排名第一。我们的全球企业银行为全球超过5,000家大型企业提供服务，其中约三分之一的客户总部位于美国以外地区。在商业银行方面，我们是中型企业市场的头号银行，并连续十年在多户住宅贷款领域排名第一。

Working hand-in-hand with Global Banking is our payments franchise, which serves clients in over 160 countries and over 120 currencies. We process over $10 trillion and nearly 60 million transactions in payments every day. Our markets business is a complete counterparty to clients, meeting their needs across a range of asset classes and through the entire trade life cycle. From research, pre-trade analytics, from trading and financing all the way to post trade support. We cover nearly 90% of institutional investors, and we're #1 in market share in every region.

与全球银行业务密切协作的是我们的支付业务平台，服务覆盖160多个国家、120多种货币。我们每天处理超过10万亿美元的支付交易，交易笔数接近6,000万笔。我们的市场业务则是客户的全方位交易对手，覆盖各类资产类别，贯穿交易生命周期的每个环节——从研究、交易前分析，到交易执行、融资及交易后支持。我们覆盖了近90%的机构投资者，并在所有地区的市场份额中排名第一。

And finally, in Security Services, we are a leading custody and fund services provider with a blue-chip client franchise and industry-leading margins. So looking forward, we're completely focused on the enormous potential we have in front of us and equally aware of the range of threats, including competitors across all of our businesses and in all of our markets. And so what is it that sets us apart. And this will look familiar.

最后，在证券服务方面，我们是领先的托管和基金服务提供商，拥有一流客户群和行业领先的利润率。展望未来，我们将全力以赴把握面前的巨大机会，同时清醒认识到来自各条业务线、各个市场的竞争威胁。那么，是什么让我们与众不同？接下来这部分内容，你们应该会觉得很熟悉。

As you have heard from all of our partners today, we have real moats around our franchise. We are complete with a comprehensive offering and leadership positions in all of our businesses. That said, we're not standing still, and we're making strategic investments in our platform, capabilities and footprint. We have incredible global reach while we serve our clients locally. We do this across 60 countries and in 74 of the top 75 MSAs in the United States, benefiting from a rich legacy around the world with almost 80 years in Tokyo. Over 200 years in London and over 225 years right here in New York City. And we're deeply embedded in these communities with strong local knowledge, expertise and connectivity. We are diversified with $70 billion of total revenues across client size, industry, geography and business. Our diversified business model provides for more enduring repeatable revenues and financial performance through the cycle. And this gives us stamina, especially in volatile markets, which lets us make sustained investments in the long term. As a part of JPMorgan Chase, we operate with tremendous scale with our iconic brand, exceptional client franchise, expansion footprint and market-leading capabilities all setting the foundation for our continued growth and success.

正如你们今天从我们所有合作伙伴那里听到的那样，我们的业务平台具备真正的“护城河”。我们是一个全面型企业，在所有业务领域都拥有领先地位和完善的产品体系。话虽如此，我们并未止步不前，仍在平台、能力和业务覆盖范围方面进行战略性投资。我们在全球具备强大的触达能力，同时也能在本地为客户提供优质服务。我们在60个国家开展业务，覆盖美国前75大大都会区中的74个，得益于全球深厚的历史积淀——我们在东京已扎根近80年，在伦敦超过200年，在纽约市本地更是有超过225年的历史。我们深深植根于这些社区，具备丰富的本地知识、专业能力和联系网络。我们业务多元化，总收入达700亿美元，覆盖不同客户规模、行业、地域与业务线。多元化的业务模型使我们在经济周期中拥有更具持续性、可重复的收入和财务表现，也赋予了我们在波动市场中的韧性，从而能够长期持续投资。作为摩根大通集团的一部分，我们凭借知名品牌、卓越的客户基础、扩张中的业务覆盖以及行业领先的能力，具备巨大的规模效应，为持续增长和成功奠定了坚实基础。

On the right-hand side of the slide, you'll see just a few statistics that do mention the absolute scale of our businesses. This gives us real efficiency and operating leverage. And if you look just within our markets business, there are several powerful examples. For instance, as our overall trading volumes have nearly tripled since 2019, we've seen significant reductions in our cost per trade. In rates, it's come down 42%. In cash equities, it's come down 23%.

在幻灯片的右侧，你可以看到一些展示我们业务规模的关键数据，这体现了我们的效率和运营杠杆优势。以市场业务为例，自2019年以来，我们的整体交易量几乎增长了三倍，与此同时，每笔交易的成本显著下降：利率产品的交易成本下降了42%，现金股票交易成本下降了23%。

But perhaps the biggest differentiator for us is our exceptional team and strong culture. Our client-focused mindset and commitment to excellence is a common language across our business. While we're quite proud of our franchise, we take nothing for granted. Against both the opportunities and challenges, we've set out a deliberate strategic agenda focused on capturing the full potential of our now combined businesses, investing to extend our competitive advantages and empowering what is the best team by any measure. With white space across CIB, we are executing multiple growth initiatives focused on expanding and deepening our client franchise. As we constantly face powerful new competitors, emerging technologies and evolving client expectations, we're innovating to extend our competitive advantages.

但或许我们最显著的差异化优势在于卓越的团队与强大的企业文化。我们秉持以客户为中心、追求卓越的共同理念贯穿于整个业务体系。尽管我们为自身平台感到自豪，但从不自满。在机遇与挑战并存的背景下，我们制定了一套清晰的战略规划，专注于挖掘合并后平台的全部潜力，持续投资以扩大竞争优势，并赋能这支无可比拟的卓越团队。在CIB的各个细分市场中，我们正在推进多项增长计划，重点是拓展并深化客户基础。面对强劲的新兴竞争对手、快速发展的技术与不断变化的客户预期，我们持续创新，以巩固和延展我们的领先地位。

Our opportunity to self-disrupt spreads across every single client journey in CIB, from how we onboard clients and conduct KYC to how clients trade with us and to how we deliver credit. And we've seen real improvements in our critical processes. In KYC, for instance, we've seen a 40% reduction in unit costs since 2022 due to AI and technology enhancements. With our digital platforms, we're working to drive simpler, more efficient, more intuitive digital-first experiences. And you'll hear more from Max and Umar and our work to optimize our digital channels.

我们可以对自身进行“自我颠覆”的机会遍布于CIB客户旅程的每一个环节——从开户与KYC流程，到客户的交易方式、再到信贷的提供。我们在多个关键流程上取得了显著进步。比如在KYC流程中，自2022年以来，得益于AI和技术升级，我们的单位成本降低了40%。通过数字化平台，我们正努力打造更简洁、高效、直观的“数字优先”体验。稍后你们还会从Max和Umar那里听到我们在优化数字渠道方面的更多进展。

We have incredibly rich data assets, and we've made steady progress in building a truly data-driven business. CIB has over 175 AI use cases in production, and with so much potential, this work is quite exciting, as we're leveraging our data at scale to provide our teams with predictive analytics and unique insights, optimize our operations and protect both our clients and our firm with better risk decisioning and portfolio management. We're also continuing to invest in our teams, and we're expanding to support important growth and strategic initiatives with targeted hiring across the franchise.

我们拥有极其丰富的数据资产，并且在构建真正以数据驱动的业务体系方面已取得稳步进展。CIB目前已有超过175个AI应用案例投入生产使用，释放出巨大的潜力。我们正在大规模利用数据，为团队提供预测性分析与独特洞察，优化运营流程，并通过更智能的风险决策与投资组合管理，保护客户与公司安全。我们也在持续投资于团队建设，围绕关键增长和战略项目，持续进行有针对性的人才引进以支撑全平台发展。

In Global Banking, we've added nearly 600 senior bankers in the last 2 years. And we aren't just adding talent. We're delivering training, insights and technology to empower and enable our teams focused on serving our clients in a highly differentiated manner. Importantly, maintaining fortress principles is a core tenet of our strategy. We benefit from a strong risk and control culture, rigorous client selection and a through-the-cycle mindset. As such, complex markets play to our strengths as we continuously prepare for a range of economic scenarios.

在全球银行业务中，过去两年我们新增了近600位资深银行家。而我们不仅仅是在扩充人才队伍，我们还为团队提供培训、洞察和技术支持，帮助他们以高度差异化的方式服务客户。值得强调的是，“堡垒式原则”的坚持是我们战略的核心之一。我们受益于强大的风险控制文化、严格的客户选择机制以及贯穿周期的经营理念。因此，面对复杂市场正是我们能够发挥优势的领域，我们持续为各种经济情境做好准备。

Altogether, this consistent long-term strategy has underpinned CIB's strong financial and operating performance. As you can see on the slide, CIB has delivered substantial organic growth, and we have done so through a range of market environments. In 2024, we generated total revenues of $70 billion, net income of $25 billion and a return on equity of 18%. Over the last 5 years, we've seen steady growth in revenues, and our earnings have grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 9%. Importantly, these results are diversified, and they benefit from our market leadership positions and the stickiness and repeatability of our treasury services, lending and security services revenues. We consistently maintain risk discipline and efficiently deploy our capital to serve our clients through the cycle.

总的来说，这一持续的长期战略为CIB强劲的财务与运营表现提供了支撑。如幻灯片所示，CIB实现了可观的有机增长，而且是在各种不同的市场环境下取得的。2024年，我们实现了700亿美元的总收入、250亿美元的净利润，股本回报率达到18%。过去5年，我们的收入稳步增长，利润的年复合增长率达到9%。更重要的是，这些成果具有高度多元化，得益于我们在市场中的领先地位，以及来自现金管理、信贷和证券服务业务收入的稳定性和可重复性。我们始终坚持风险控制纪律，并高效地配置资本以在不同周期中服务客户。

And so looking forward, we would expect a return on equity of 16% over the medium term. But obviously, this could be impacted by potential headwinds that Jeremy walked through earlier today. The strong results I just highlighted were driven by the sustained investments we've made over the past decade or longer. And CIB's overhead ratio of 50% in 2024 is one of the best amongst our key peers, even while we've made significant investments in our franchise.

展望未来，我们预计在中期可实现16%的股本回报率。但显然，这一预期也可能受到Jeremy今天早些时候提到的一些潜在阻力因素的影响。我刚才介绍的优异成绩，是我们过去十年乃至更长时间持续投资的结果。2024年，CIB的成本收入比为50%，即使在我们大举投资自身平台的背景下，这一水平依然处于同行业的领先位置。

This year, we expect our total expenses to increase 7%, in line with the guidance we gave at year-end. Our volume and revenue-related expenses should increase year-over-year, in line with our continued growth and the momentum we see across the business. And the biggest percentage increase in our expenses relates to the investments we are making in technology and a range of strategic initiatives. These investments will defend our franchise and best position us to capture the many opportunities ahead.

今年，我们预计总支出将增长7%，这一预期与我们年末提供的指引一致。随着业务持续增长和整体动能增强，与交易量和收入相关的支出预计将同比增长。而支出增幅最大的一项来自于我们在技术以及一系列战略项目上的投资。这些投资将保护我们的业务平台，并使我们更好地抓住未来众多机遇。

For this year, we expect total investments to increase 8% from $4.3 billion to $4.7 billion. Most of the spend is across 2 main categories: first is technology, where we're investing $3.7 billion, targeting $2.5 billion for our products, platforms and in experiences. We also continue to make the necessary long-term investments into modernizing our infrastructure. This includes investments for cybersecurity, resiliency and executing our cloud strategy.

今年，我们预计总投资将增长8%，从43亿美元增加至47亿美元。大部分投资集中在两大类：首先是技术方面，我们计划投入37亿美元，其中25亿美元将用于产品、平台和客户体验相关项目。同时我们也持续进行必要的长期基础设施现代化建设投资，包括网络安全、系统韧性及云战略执行等方面的投入。

The other major focus is funding the strategic expansion of our banking and sales teams. Troy will cover this in detail, but we have an outstanding track record of organic growth tied to deliberately putting more JPMorgan bankers and for more clients and more prospects. And before I hand the mic to Troy, let me end by saying that we're only beginning to see the full potential of our interconnected businesses. Our coverage and product teams are even more closely aligned, segmented and focused, delivering deep industry and market expertise. We're solutions-driven, serving our clients at every step in their journey, from start-up to large multinational. And we are 1 face to sizable market ecosystems like private capital and the innovation economy. And with each of our businesses performing exceptionally well, what is exciting is we operate in large and growing addressable markets, and there are substantial opportunities to build on our momentum.

另一个重点是支持我们银行业务和销售团队的战略扩张。Troy将会对此进行详细说明。我们在有机增长方面拥有卓越的历史业绩，这得益于我们有意识地将更多的摩根大通银行家配置到更多的客户与潜在客户身上。在我将麦克风交给Troy之前，我想说，我们才刚刚开始释放我们的整合业务的全部潜力。我们的客户覆盖团队与产品团队之间的协作更加紧密，针对性更强，能够提供深入的行业与市场洞察。我们以解决方案为导向，在客户的每一个发展阶段提供支持——从初创企业到大型跨国公司。对于诸如私募资本和创新经济等庞大市场生态，我们以统一面貌出现。更令人兴奋的是，我们每项业务表现都非常出色，而且我们所处的市场既广阔又持续增长，我们仍有大量机会能够乘势而上。

And with that, let me now pass it over to Troy to tell you more.

接下来，我将把时间交给Troy，为大家做进一步的介绍。

Troy Rohrbaugh Co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank

Thank you, Doug, and good morning, everyone. We believe the power of our combined CIB franchise is incredibly unique. We are now even better positioned to deliver comprehensive solutions to our clients and capture large and growing opportunities. So now I'll walk through our lines of business and cover their performance and key priorities.

Troy Rohrbaugh 商业与投资银行联席CEO

谢谢你，Doug，大家早上好。我们相信，整合后的CIB平台拥有独特且强大的能量。我们现在具备了更强的能力为客户提供全面的解决方案，并把握那些规模庞大、持续增长的市场机遇。接下来，我将逐一介绍我们的各项业务线，涵盖其业绩表现和关键战略重点。

Starting with security services, where we have made immense progress. This is a business with a concentrated wallet across the largest institutional investors, and that trend has been accelerating. Our strategy has always been focused on partnering with long-term clients who are benefiting from these consolidation trends and therefore need and value our full offering as they become even more global and complex. We operate in 100 markets. And as a result, our client base is well diversified across geographies, with over 60% of our revenue generated outside the U.S.

先从证券服务开始，这是一项我们取得巨大进展的业务。该业务主要面向最大的机构投资者客户，客户集中度高，且这一趋势正在加速发展。我们的战略始终聚焦于与那些受益于行业整合趋势的长期客户建立合作关系。这些客户业务日益全球化和复杂化，因此更加需要并重视我们所提供的全方位服务。目前我们在100个市场开展运营，因此我们的客户群体在地域上高度多元化，其中超过60%的收入来自美国以外地区。

From security services to markets, we offer front-to-back solutions. 80% of our clients are also market clients, including our top 200. We have over $35 trillion in assets under custody and generated over $5 billion in revenue in 2024, making our -- marking our fifth straight year of record revenue, driven by steady fee growth as well as a stable and growing deposit base. Since 2019, we've improved our share by 50 basis points and are in the top 3 with 10.7% share. While it's important for us to close the gap to #1, we are focused on doing so profitably. We continue to drive efficiency at scale across our complete product set.

从证券服务到市场业务，我们为客户提供端到端的一体化解决方案。我们的客户中有80%同时也是市场业务客户，包括前200大客户在内。我们目前的托管资产超过35万亿美元，2024年创下50亿美元的收入新高，实现连续第五年收入创新高，这得益于手续费的稳定增长和不断扩大的存款基础。自2019年以来，我们的市场份额提高了50个基点，目前以10.7%的份额排名全球前三。虽然缩小与第一名的差距很重要，但我们更关注在保持盈利性的前提下实现这一目标。我们继续在完整产品组合上推动大规模效率提升。

As you can see on the right, in trading services, we've increased our balances by 80% and reduced unit costs by 72%. And in ETFs, we've increased assets under custody by over 300%. Importantly, we've continued to deliver the best-in-class operating margin of 32%, which is the outcome of years of investing in our platforms and thoughtfully partnering and growing with our clients. This space continues to evolve, including factors like competition and price compression, clients investing in more complex markets and strategies and the increasing need for data and analytics. As our clients navigate a changing landscape, they rely on us as their long-term partner. Our technology and scale are critical to being an endgame winner in this business. Not to mention the data in our Fusion platform, which opens up incredible potential for AI to further drive value for our clients and better enable productivity.

正如右侧所展示，在交易服务方面，我们的资产余额增长了80%，单位成本则下降了72%。在ETF方面，我们的托管资产增长了300%以上。值得一提的是，我们仍保持了32%的行业领先运营利润率，这得益于我们多年来对平台的持续投入，以及与客户的深度合作和共同成长。这个领域仍在不断演进，面临着竞争加剧、价格压力、客户对复杂市场和策略的投资加深，以及对数据与分析需求日益增强等挑战。在这样的变化中，我们的客户愈发依赖我们作为其长期合作伙伴。我们的技术能力和规模是最终胜出的关键因素，更不用说我们Fusion平台中积累的数据，这为AI带来了巨大潜力，能够进一步为客户创造价值并提升效率。

Moving on to markets. We are proud to be the top franchise. In any market environment, we are committed to being a complete and global counterparty with strong risk management and the ability to allocate capital dynamically. Our intense client-centric focus allows us to meet our clients' needs through the trade life cycle. Our #1 ranked research organization delivers best-in-class content and insights to client, with over 90,000 active users on our JPMorgan Markets portal. In trading, we ranked top 2 in 11 of the 13 sub-products. And financing is a significant and expanding portion of our revenue in both FICC and Equities, growing by 75% since 2019. And here, we have the top market share among our peer group at 17%. Supporting all of this is our resilient infrastructure and digital platforms, enabling us to handle massive spikes in volume like we saw last month. For example, we executed $340 billion of FX notional in 1 single day.

接下来是市场业务。我们非常自豪能够成为这一领域的领先平台。在任何市场环境下，我们都致力于成为全球范围内全面的交易对手，具备强大的风险管理能力和灵活配置资本的能力。我们高度以客户为中心，能够在整个交易生命周期中满足客户的各种需求。我们排名第一的研究团队为客户提供顶尖的内容与洞察，目前已有超过9万名活跃用户通过JPMorgan Markets门户平台使用我们的研究产品。在交易方面，我们在13个子产品中有11项排名前二。在固定收益与股票业务中，融资收入是一个重要且不断扩大的组成部分，自2019年以来增长了75%。在该领域，我们以17%的份额领先同行。支撑这些成果的是我们高度韧性的基础设施与数字平台，能够轻松应对如上月那样的交易量激增。例如，我们曾在一天内完成了3400亿美元的外汇名义交易量。

Turning to financial performance. We generated a record $30 billion of revenue last year, maintaining our #1 rank, even as the significant wallet continues to attract competition from both banks and nonbanks.

来看财务表现。我们去年创造了创纪录的300亿美元收入，即便面对来自银行和非银行机构的激烈竞争，仍保持了行业第一的地位。

In the middle of the slide is our product market share. In Equities, our multiyear investment strategy has led to growth across all 3 key areas: Cash, prime and derivatives. In FICC, we have been the leading franchise for over a decade. However, our market share is lower relative to pre-COVID due to a change in the wallet mix plus certain areas of underperformance, such as rates, which we are addressing.

幻灯片中间展示的是我们的产品市场份额。在股票业务方面，我们多年投资战略带来了三个关键领域的全面增长：现货、主经纪业务以及衍生品。在固定收益、货币和大宗商品（FICC）方面，我们已连续十多年保持领先地位。然而，与疫情前相比，我们的市场份额有所下降，主要是由于钱包结构发生变化，以及利率等部分领域表现不佳所致，这些问题我们正在积极应对。

Perhaps even more important is our client market share on the right, which is the cornerstone of our franchise. Similar to Security Services, we are focused on growing alongside our largest institutional clients, where we've seen the consolidation of the wallet there as well over the past few years. Here, we have the leading market share, increasing by 230 basis points since 2019.

或许更重要的是右侧展示的客户市场份额，这是我们业务的基石。与证券服务类似，我们专注于与大型机构客户共同成长，而过去几年这些客户的钱包也趋于集中。在这方面，我们拥有行业领先的市场份额，自2019年以来已提升230个基点。

As we discussed last year, we continue to see opportunities to deepen relationships with corporates, which we are well positioned to do through our combined organization. For example, our TS FX revenues from international corporate clients have grown by over 40% in the last 2 years.

正如我们去年所讨论的，我们仍然看到与企业客户深化关系的机会，而整合后的组织架构使我们具备良好条件去抓住这些机会。例如，我们来自国际企业客户的TS（财资服务）外汇收入在过去两年增长了超过40%。

So while the market environment remains uncertain, we operate from a position of strength, which should allow us to capitalize on a potentially larger wallet while still investing in our clients, products, technology and innovation. We also continue to deploy capital in a disciplined way, pursuing opportunities dynamically across key products and client segments.

尽管当前市场环境依然存在不确定性，但我们处于有力的位置，能够抓住更大的市场钱包，同时继续在客户、产品、技术与创新方面进行投资。我们还会继续以审慎的方式部署资本，在关键产品与客户细分市场中灵活寻找机会。

Okay. So now turning to Global Banking, where, as Doug said, we are fully integrated, yet intentionally segmented to serve our clients at every stage of their life cycle. With our comprehensive set of solutions across payments, lending, advisory and capital markets, all delivered with excellence, we are creating client for life relationships.

好，接下来来看全球银行业务。正如Doug所说，我们在这一领域实现了全面整合，同时有意地进行分层管理，以在客户整个生命周期的各个阶段提供服务。我们在支付、贷款、咨询以及资本市场等方面提供一整套卓越的解决方案，从而打造终身客户关系。

The breadth and expertise of our model is what truly sets us apart, including fit-for-purpose solutions delivered to our 80,000 clients, global scale with local presence in 220 cities and nearly 4,000 senior bankers with deep industry knowledge serving as trusted advisers to our clients. And the interconnectedness across our businesses allows us to deliver a unified client experience.

我们的模式在广度与专业能力方面独树一帜，这包括向8万个客户提供契合其需求的解决方案，覆盖220个城市的全球规模和本地化服务，以及拥有近4000名资深银行家，他们具备深厚行业知识，担任客户值得信赖的顾问。各业务之间的互联互通，也使我们能够为客户提供一致的服务体验。

The power of Global Banking is demonstrated in our financial results with strong growth in revenue delivered in close collaboration with our payments team. Max and Umar will tell you more about that in a minute.

全球银行业务的实力在我们的财务业绩中得到体现，我们与支付团队紧密协作，实现了强劲的收入增长。Max 和 Umar 稍后会详细讲解这部分内容。

For the past 15 years, we've been #1 in global investment banking fees. And last year, for the first time, we took a full sweep of #1 across M&A, DCM and ECM. However, the race at the top is tight, which is why we continue to focus diligently product by product, subsector by subsector.

在过去15年里，我们在全球投行业务费用方面一直排名第一。而去年，我们首次在并购、债务资本市场和股权资本市场三大领域全面夺冠。但顶尖之间的竞争非常激烈，因此我们仍需在各个产品、子行业维度上持续深耕。

And we remain incredibly disciplined in our loan growth while still growing our deposits through the cycle.

我们在贷款增长方面依然保持高度的纪律性，同时在整个周期中稳步扩大存款规模。

We're in a challenging environment with potential downward pressures on investment banking wallet, acute competition and the increasing war for talent. But we will continue to expand our client franchise through our targeted growth initiatives. For example, we are using our data to better target 60,000 middle-market prospects to become their primary bank.

我们当前所处的环境充满挑战，投行业务钱包面临下行压力，竞争激烈，对人才的争夺也日益加剧。但我们将通过有针对性的增长计划持续扩大客户基础。例如，我们正在利用数据更精准地定位6万个中型市场潜在客户，争取成为他们的主要银行。

In Investment Banking, we're making inroads on the subsector opportunities we shared with you last year, and we prioritized 16 of those, which are growing and benefiting from secular trends. And as Doug mentioned, the sponsor and innovation economy ecosystems present large market opportunities where we believe we are uniquely positioned to gain outsized wallet share. For example, we grew our innovation economy client base by 30% last year. Finally, we continue to invest in our talent, adding over 2,000 client-facing and supporting team members in the last 5 years, while enabling them with real-time insights and analytics to increase sales productivity.

在投行业务方面，我们在去年分享的子行业机会上不断取得进展，并优先聚焦了其中的16个领域，这些领域正在增长并受益于长期结构性趋势。正如Doug所提到的，赞助商和创新经济生态系统是巨大的市场机会，我们相信自己具备独特优势，有望获得超额的钱包份额。例如，我们的创新经济客户基础在去年增长了30%。最后，我们持续投资于人才，在过去5年中新增了超过2,000名面向客户及后台支持的团队成员，并通过实时洞察与分析工具提升销售生产力。

Okay. Turning to our lending exposure. Jeremy already covered some of this, so I won't add much further, other than to say we're comfortable with our overall exposure, but we are closely monitoring both middle market companies and certain sectors that may be more significantly impacted by tariffs as well as other areas where credit has broadly grown during the cycle. In commercial real estate, our portfolio remains consistent at $200 billion, which is predominantly multifamily, mainly in Classes B and C, where we've seen limited losses. And as Doug shared, our primary objective is to be the most important financial partner to our clients and to be a stable port in the storm.

接下来谈谈我们的信贷敞口。Jeremy 已经提到了一部分内容，所以我不多赘述，只补充一点，我们对整体敞口持审慎乐观态度，但我们正密切关注中型市场企业和某些可能受关税影响较大的行业，以及在本轮周期中信贷普遍增长的其他领域。在商业房地产方面，我们的投资组合保持在2,000亿美元，主要集中于多户型住宅，尤其是B类和C类，我们在这些领域的损失非常有限。正如Doug所言，我们的首要目标是成为客户最重要的金融合作伙伴，成为“风暴中的稳定港湾”。

Okay. So I'm going to finish with a powerful example of how our combined franchise across commercial banking, investment banking and markets is even better positioned to deliver comprehensive solutions to our clients. As we said earlier, we are 1 face to large market ecosystems, and private credit is no exception. We talked about this last year, and we've made real progress since then. We believe that we are uniquely positioned to sit at the center of this ecosystem. And our public commitment to direct lending speaks for itself: $50 billion from our own balance sheet alongside nearly $15 billion from our co-lending partners. This will be deployed thoughtfully and over time, applying our consistent and disciplined approach to risk management.

最后我想用一个有力的例子收尾，展示我们如何通过商业银行、投资银行和市场业务的协同，更好地为客户提供全面解决方案。正如我们之前所说，我们在大型市场生态系统中以“一个面孔”对接客户，私人信贷也不例外。我们去年就谈过这个话题，而过去一年我们确实取得了实质进展。我们相信自己具备独特优势，能够处于这一生态系统的核心位置。我们对直接放贷的公开承诺也说明了一切：我们将从自有资产负债表中投入500亿美元，联贷伙伴则贡献近150亿美元。我们将以一贯的、纪律严明的风险管理方式，在合理时机有序投入这些资金。

We do not do this for the purpose of gathering assets. We do this to meet our clients' needs. Core to our strategy is that we partner with both our borrower and investor clients. When it comes to our borrower clients, we are committed to meeting their capital needs by delivering the most appropriate solution, whether it's public, private, hybrid or any variation thereof. As for our investor clients, we do not see this as being at odds with those who provide these solutions as well. We see it as an opportunity to partner with them and promote a healthy functioning market.

我们并非为了“管理资产”而开展这些业务，而是为了满足客户的实际需求。我们战略的核心是同时与借款客户和投资客户建立合作关系。对于借款客户，我们致力于满足其资本需求，提供最合适的解决方案，不论是公开市场、私募市场、混合形式，还是其他任何变体。至于投资客户，我们并不认为我们在与其他提供这些方案的机构竞争；我们视其为合作伙伴关系的机会，并希望共同推动市场健康运行。

And all of this creates flywheel benefits, helping us capture revenues across trading, financing, payments, advisory, among others. And we will continue to evolve our approach as needed to ensure we are best positioned to drive value for our clients. So with that, I will hand it over to Max and Umar, who will give you an update on our Payments business.

所有这些都带来了“飞轮效应”，帮助我们在交易、融资、支付、咨询等多个领域获取更多收入。我们也会根据需要不断调整方法，以确保我们始终处于最有利的位置，为客户创造价值。接下来我将时间交给Max和Umar，他们将介绍我们的支付业务进展。

Max Neukirchen Global Head of Payments

Thank you, Troy and Doug, and welcome to our deep dive on Payments. In Payments, we serve an incredible breadth of clients across sizes and industries all around the world. But we do not pursue a one-size-fits-all approach. We offer comprehensive solutions tailored to their specific needs, from digital-first products for startups to complex global solutions for multinational companies.

感谢Troy和Doug，欢迎大家参加我们关于支付业务的深度解读。在支付领域，我们服务全球各行各业、不同规模的大量客户。但我们并不采取“一刀切”的方式，而是提供贴合客户具体需求的全面解决方案，从面向初创企业的数字化产品，到面向跨国公司的复杂全球解决方案应有尽有。

Our business is world leading. Last year, we generated more than $18 billion of revenues. And our scale is unmatched. We serve 20 of the largest 20 companies on the planet. We cover 80% of the Fortune 500, and we are #1 in U.S. middle market. And central to all of this is our goal of being the primary operating bank to each of our clients. In addition to serving our clients, we're also a critical partner to the rest of the firm. For example, we hold $760 billion of deposits, which is almost 1/3 of the firm's deposit funding, most of them operating deposits. And we are also critical to the success of other businesses within JPMC, as the examples on the bottom show.

我们的支付业务在全球处于领先地位。去年，我们创造了超过180亿美元的收入，规模无与伦比。我们服务全球最大的20家公司中的全部20家，覆盖财富500强的80%，并在美国中型市场中排名第一。实现成为每一位客户“首选运营银行”的目标是我们业务的核心所在。除了服务客户外，我们也是摩根大通其他业务部门的重要合作伙伴。例如，我们持有的存款高达7,600亿美元，占全行存款资金来源的近三分之一，且大多数为运营性存款。此外，正如下方示例所示，我们在摩根大通其他业务的成功中也发挥着关键作用。

Payments unlocks incremental revenues. For example, we have a successful collaboration with markets around seamless FX that has added hundreds of millions of incremental revenues over the last few years. Payments also generated significant cost savings. As you can see in the middle at the bottom, both Security Services and CCB leverage our infrastructure to process trillions of dollars of savings every year. And Payments powers alternative solutions for our clients. For example, we enabled them to sweep funds into AWM, at the moment, about $175 billion of balances. All these synergies create value for the firm, but they also really solidify our role as a leader in financial services.

支付业务带来了增量收入。例如，我们与市场业务部门围绕无缝外汇交易的合作，在过去几年中创造了数亿美元的额外收入。支付业务还带来了显著的成本节约。如中间底部所示，证券服务和消费者与社区银行（CCB）均利用我们的基础设施，每年处理数万亿美元的节约资金。同时，支付还为客户提供替代性解决方案，例如我们帮助客户将资金自动调拨至资产与财富管理（AWM）部门，目前涉及资金余额约为1,750亿美元。所有这些协同效应不仅为公司创造了价值，也进一步巩固了我们在金融服务领域的领导地位。

Now let me talk a little bit more about the sub businesses we have in Payments. Treasury Services is a business that offers liquidity management and money movement to clients. We are #1, and we continue to grow. On an average day, we process more than $10 trillion of volume, and that goes up to $14 trillion on peak days. In Merchant Services, we allow companies to accept payments from their customers, both online and in store. We are the #1 acquirer in the U.S., and we're also the #1 e-commerce acquirer in EMEA. Last year, we processed more than $2.6 trillion of volume and at peak, more than 6,000 transactions per second.

接下来我想进一步介绍我们支付业务的子板块。金库服务（Treasury Services）为客户提供流动性管理和资金流转服务，我们在该领域排名第一，且持续增长。平均每天处理的交易量超过10万亿美元，峰值时达到14万亿美元。在商户服务（Merchant Services）方面，我们帮助公司无论是在线还是线下接受客户付款。我们是美国最大的收单机构，也是欧洲、中东和非洲（EMEA）地区最大的电商收单机构。去年，我们处理的交易总量超过2.6万亿美元，峰值每秒处理超过6,000笔交易。

Our Trade business is focused on being a leader in key subsegments, such as structured trade. And as you can see on the page, the #7 ranking has opportunities to grow. These first 3 businesses are well established and generate more than 90% of our Payments revenues. However, the next 2 are areas of key investment and also show high growth. Embedded finance and solution encompasses vertical and horizontal value-added services, as well as software solutions. Our embedded payments platform is #1 ranked.

我们的贸易金融（Trade）业务专注于在结构性贸易等关键细分领域成为领导者。目前我们在该领域排名第7，仍有较大提升空间。上述三个子业务已经非常成熟，占我们支付收入的90%以上。但接下来的两个新领域是我们的重点投资方向，增长潜力也很大。嵌入式金融与解决方案（Embedded Finance and Solution）涵盖垂直和横向的增值服务及软件解决方案，我们的嵌入式支付平台排名全球第一。

And then finally, we offer best-in-class digital solutions, including our #1 ranked client portals, JPMorgan Access and Connect as well as Kinexys, 1 of the largest blockchain networks in payments. Now what makes us unique in all of this? Our solutions create tangible value by combining the power of a large trusted bank with the innovation of a tech company. And no other payments business has our unique set of assets, having the #1 treasury services organization and the world leading acquirer all under 1 roof. And we also differentiate by how we deliver this to our clients. We have a single coverage organization. We have a unified high-touch approach to client service, and we operate at scale, 24/7 all around the world.

最后，我们还提供业内领先的数字解决方案，包括排名第一的客户门户平台JPMorgan Access与Connect，以及Kinexys——全球最大的支付区块链网络之一。那是什么让我们在这一切中与众不同？我们通过将一家值得信赖的大型银行的实力与科技公司的创新能力结合起来，为客户创造了可衡量的实际价值。没有其他支付公司能拥有我们这种独特的资产组合：在一个平台下同时拥有全球排名第一的金库服务和全球领先的收单业务。我们还通过服务方式实现差异化：我们设有统一的客户覆盖组织，采取高接触、高定制化的客户服务方式，并实现了全球范围内7天24小时的规模化运营。

Let me bring this alive to you with 2 client examples, Booking Holdings and Total Energies. Booking Holdings on the left is an online travel agency that has household brands such as Booking.com and QIA. We've been with them since the beginning. We were their first bank, we gave them their first ever loan through the commercial bank. And of course, we have had a deep payments relationship. Our payments relationship has evolved over the last 30 years to become Bookings' preeminent partner by offering them the specific solutions that you see on the left-hand side of the page.

让我通过两个客户案例让大家对这一切有更直观的感受：Booking Holdings 和道达尔能源（Total Energies）。左边的Booking Holdings是一家在线旅游公司，旗下拥有Booking.com和QIA等知名品牌。我们从公司创立初期就与他们合作，是他们的第一家银行，并通过商业银行向其发放了第一笔贷款。当然，我们与其在支付方面也建立了深厚的合作关系。30年来，这一支付合作持续演进，成为Booking Holdings的首选合作伙伴，我们为其量身定制了解决方案，正如页面左侧所展示的。

Total Energies is a global payments company -- I'm sorry, global energy company headquartered in France. We've enjoyed a long-standing relationship with them across investment banking markets and, of course, payments. Total Energies leverages us for liquidity management and cash management, but most importantly, to power their global growth. And beyond the day today, we support Total Energies in defining modern day treasury management. We allow them to have real-time settlement 24/7, leveraging our blockchain solutions. And they benefit from our AI-powered fraud prevention tools. Both examples show that we are a trusted market of companies at every growth stage earned by delivering solutions to their specific needs.

道达尔能源是一家总部位于法国的全球性能源公司（刚才口误说成了支付公司）。我们与他们在投行业务、市场业务以及支付方面均保持着长期合作。道达尔能源利用我们的服务进行流动性和现金管理，更重要的是借助我们的平台支持其全球扩张。不仅限于日常操作，我们还协助其打造现代化的金库管理体系，例如通过区块链解决方案实现7天24小时的实时结算，并运用我们基于人工智能的欺诈防范工具。这两个案例说明，我们凭借量身定制的解决方案，赢得了各个发展阶段客户的信赖。

Now let's turn to some key financials. We've seen incredible top line growth over the last few years, adding more than $8 billion of revenue and a 12% CAGR. But it's not only the absolute growth, it's also a relative growth. Our treasury services market share has increased by more than 350 basis points over the time frame. And it's the quality of these revenues that also matters. Payments is essential to our clients. Our relationships are deep and long-lasting, and those revenues are therefore consistent and recurring.

接下来我们看看一些关键财务数据。过去几年，我们实现了强劲的收入增长，新增收入超过80亿美元，复合年增长率（CAGR）为12%。但值得关注的不仅是绝对增长，还有相对增长——在同期内，我们的金库服务市场份额提高了超过350个基点。更重要的是，这些收入的质量也非常高。支付业务对客户至关重要，我们与客户的关系深厚而持久，因此这些收入具有高度的持续性和可预测性。

Two metrics we monitor very closely to judge the health of our franchise are actually growth in fees and growth in deposits, as you can see in the middle of the page. Fees have grown at a 9% CAGR, driven by our investment in modern platforms as well as an expanded coverage, as you heard earlier from Doug. And over the same time period, as you can see in the middle in the bottom, our deposits are more than 50%, mostly high-quality operating deposits. Last year offered a clear demonstration of the strong earnings profile of this franchise. While revenue growth was nearly flat, it was a very successful year because we were able to absorb significant rate-related headwinds through our deposit and our fee growth. And it's performance like that will help us weather future rate cycles.

我们重点关注的两个衡量业务健康度的指标是手续费收入增长和存款增长，您可以在页面中部看到相关数据。手续费收入的复合年增长率为9%，这得益于我们在现代化平台上的持续投资以及客户覆盖范围的扩大，正如Doug先前所提到的。同时期内，我们的存款增长超过50%，其中大部分为高质量的运营性存款。去年就是这一业务盈利能力的明确体现——虽然整体收入增长接近持平，但依靠存款和手续费增长，我们成功抵御了与利率相关的重大逆风。因此，正是这种表现能力帮助我们应对未来的利率周期。

Now let's look ahead. Looking ahead, we see significant tailwinds that will position us well for continued growth. First of all, payments continue to digitize all around the world, with electronic solutions replacing cash. That grows the wallet for us, but of course, also for the whole industry. In addition to wallet growth, there continues to be a consolidation towards the largest players, reflecting an industry trend towards scale and security. JPMorgan is very well positioned for that trend. And thirdly, payments is becoming more and more strategic, evolving from a back-office function to a key revenue driver for many of our clients. That means clients are willing to pay a premium for differentiated solutions.

展望未来，我们认为存在多个强劲的顺风因素将推动我们持续增长。首先，全球范围内支付不断数字化，电子化方案正在取代现金，这不仅扩大了我们的收入“钱包”，也推动了整个行业的发展。其次，行业正在加速向头部企业集中，反映出对规模效应和安全性的高度关注，而摩根大通正好处于这个趋势的有利位置。第三，支付正变得越来越具有战略意义，从过去的后台职能转变为许多客户的核心收入驱动因素，这意味着客户愿意为差异化的解决方案支付溢价。

Now how will we capture all of these opportunities going forward? For that, I'll hand it over to my partner, Umar, who will take you through our 5 growth levers.

那我们如何把握这些未来机会呢？接下来我将把时间交给我的合伙人Umar，他将为大家讲解我们的五大增长驱动因素。

Umar Farooq Global Head of Payments

Thanks, Max, and good morning, everyone. As you heard, our business has tremendous momentum and natural tailwinds. We want to ensure that we capture this opportunity and have a 5-pronged strategy to do so. Working closely with our partners in banking, we will continue to expand coverage across industries and geographies. We will combine this expanded coverage with the strength of our balance sheet to deploy capital and meet the needs of our clients. We have been on a modernization journey for many years now. And given the centrality of technology to our business and the constant innovation in our space, we will continue to invest in platforms that are innovative, scalable and resilient.

谢谢你，Max。大家早上好。正如大家所听到的，我们的支付业务正处于强劲的增长势头之中，并具备天然的顺风因素。为了把握这一机遇，我们制定了五大策略支柱。在与银行业务合作伙伴密切配合的基础上，我们将持续扩大在行业和地域上的覆盖范围。同时，借助我们强大的资产负债表实力，将资本有效投入，以满足客户的需求。我们多年来一直在推进现代化转型。考虑到技术在我们业务中的核心地位及该领域持续不断的创新，我们将继续投资于创新性强、具备可扩展性和高韧性的技术平台。

Last but definitely not least, we are doubling down in our existing footprint and looking to expand to new markets. Let me cover a few of these points in a bit more detail. Our partnership with Commercial Banking and Corporate Banking is a key asset for the Payments business. We see significant opportunities across segments and geographies to deepen existing relationships and to capture new clients. Our focus on expanding coverage is actually nothing new. Since 2022, we've expanded our banker headcount by more than 1,000, and we intend to continue growing. Most importantly, as mentioned earlier, this shows the power of bringing the Commercial and Investment Bank together last year. Many of the segments we are focused on take our existing expertise from Commercial Banking in the United States and rolled it out across our financial footprint.

最后，但同样重要的是，我们正在加大对现有市场的投入，同时寻求进入新的市场。让我详细讲解其中几点。我们与商业银行和企业银行的合作是支付业务的关键资产。在多个细分市场和地域范围内，我们看到了深化现有关系与获取新客户的巨大机遇。事实上，扩大覆盖范围一直是我们的重点方向。从2022年至今，我们已新增超过1,000名银行业务人员，并计划继续扩大团队。更重要的是，正如之前提到的，这也体现了我们去年将商业银行与投资银行整合后的协同效应。我们专注的多个细分市场，正是把我们在美国商业银行业务中的专业能力推广到全球金融网络中。

Now you've heard quite a bit about our modernization journey in past Investor Days and can now say see multiple years of investments paying off in our performance. Our double-digit growth in fee revenue is a testament to building a modern, highly scalable and resilient platform. In fact, we built all of our new applications for maximum flexibility, utilizing microservices and a cloud-ready architecture. Down the middle of this page, you can see many examples of completed and ongoing work across our entire product suite, including, very importantly, the completion of our target state global platforms for Treasury Services and Merchant Services. We believe this gives us a sustainable advantage versus our peers.

在过去几次投资者日上，你们已经多次听到我们提及现代化转型，如今我们可以看到多年投资已经体现在业绩上。我们的手续费收入实现了两位数增长，这正是我们构建了现代化、高度可扩展且韧性强的平台的体现。事实上，我们所有的新应用都采用最大灵活性的设计，基于微服务架构，并全面支持云端部署。在这一页中间，你们可以看到我们在整个产品套件上已完成及正在推进的诸多项目，包括最重要的——我们的金库服务与商户服务的全球目标平台已成功上线。我们相信，这些都将成为我们相较同行的长期竞争优势。

And I'd be remiss if I didn't say that in our business, we've never really done with modernization, and we will continue to invest in our platforms on an ongoing basis. These state-of-the-art platforms enable industry-leading digital experiences and innovation. We are laser-focused on providing the absolute best digital experience to every single client segment.

我还必须强调，在我们的行业中，“现代化”永远不会完成，我们会持续不断地对平台进行投入。这些先进的平台支持行业领先的数字体验与创新。我们始终高度聚焦于为每一个细分客户群体提供最优质的数字化体验。

We already have, as you heard, award-winning at-scale platforms like JPMorgan Access and Chase Connect that serve more than 400,000 users on a regular basis, but we are building new ones. We are really focused on building digital experiences that are targeted to specific segments like technology startups. On the right of this page, you can see an area that makes us really proud: Kinexys, our blockchain business, formerly known as Onyx by JPMorgan. Kinexys is 1 of the largest and leading institutional blockchain platforms and has delivered many industry firsts, from programmable payments for our corporate clients through instant settlement between U.S. dollars and euros.

正如你们所听到的，我们已经拥有了像JPMorgan Access和Chase Connect这样屡获殊荣的大规模平台，服务超过40万名活跃用户，但我们仍在建设新的平台。我们特别关注为特定细分客户群体（如科技初创企业）打造定制化的数字化体验。在页面右侧，你们可以看到我们引以为傲的一个领域：Kinexys，这是我们的区块链业务，前身为摩根大通的Onyx平台。Kinexys是全球最大的机构级区块链平台之一，已经实现了多个行业首创，包括为企业客户提供可编程支付功能，以及实现美元与欧元之间的即时结算。

Our pedigree in this space is unique. We started investing in blockchain many years ago before our peers, fintechs included, and have stuck with this investment through all intervening cycles. Our world-class team has spent years building a platform that's scaled and fully compliant. And this platform since launch has processed nearly $2 trillion, putting it in the category by itself. And we are very excited about recent developments in areas like organized assets. With our platform, we are ready to capture these opportunities. And we intend to continue innovation in this space with the quality and the compliance expected of JPMorgan. Needless to say, we have some exciting products lined up, so stay tuned.

我们在这一领域的资历无可比拟。我们在区块链方面的投资早于同行和金融科技公司，并在整个周期中始终坚持这项投资。我们的世界级团队多年致力于打造一个既具规模又完全合规的平台。自平台上线以来，累计处理的交易额已接近2万亿美元，可谓独树一帜。我们对近期如“合规资产”领域的发展感到非常兴奋。凭借我们的平台，我们已准备好抓住这些机会，并将继续秉持摩根大通应有的品质与合规标准，在该领域持续创新。不用说，我们已经准备好了一些令人激动的新产品，敬请期待。

We're also very proud of our best-in-class data platform. As 1 of the largest players in payments, we have a data asset that is second to none. To harness the power of this data, we have been building and have completed building a cloud-native data infrastructure and are utilizing AI and machine learning models for everything from prospect qualification to transaction screening and operations. The operational efficiencies our data platform has allowed us to capture with AI models are truly impressive. In the last few years, our transaction volumes have gone up by more than 50%. At the same time, our AI models have allowed us to cut manual exceptions by more than 50%, delivering significant operating leverage.

我们同样引以为傲的是我们一流的数据平台。作为支付领域的领先者之一，我们拥有业内无可匹敌的数据资产。为充分释放这些数据的价值，我们已构建并完成了云原生数据基础设施，并在潜在客户筛选、交易审核与运营等多个方面广泛运用人工智能与机器学习模型。借助AI模型，我们在运营效率上取得了显著成果：近几年交易量增长超过50%，同时人工异常处理量减少了超过50%，显著提升了运营杠杆。

And that's not it. We also have been able to cut down the turnaround times for these exceptions by nearly 75%, which has allowed us to deliver exceptional client experience. Secondly, this is just a small example of how key our data asset will be to the future of our business as we expand and lean ever more so into technologies like generative AI.

这还不是全部。我们还将这些异常交易的处理时间缩短了近75%，极大提升了客户体验。其次，这只是一个小例子，说明了数据资产在我们业务未来中将扮演何等关键的角色，尤其是在我们持续扩展并深度应用生成式AI等技术的背景下。

Finally, we are excited about expanding our global footprint, something that's very important to many of our clients. We are already well positioned. We are the #1 player in financial institution payments globally. Our SWIFT market share is significantly higher than any of our peers. However, as we mentioned earlier, we continue to invest in expanding corporate coverage across all segments, from start-ups to multinationals. This goes hand-in-hand with expanding capabilities in our existing markets.

最后，我们对进一步拓展全球业务版图感到非常振奋，这对于我们的众多客户而言至关重要。目前我们已具备良好基础——我们是全球金融机构支付领域的领导者，SWIFT市场份额远高于任何同行。尽管如此，正如之前所述，我们仍在持续投资，以拓展从初创公司到跨国企业的企业客户覆盖，这与我们在现有市场能力的提升相辅相成。

Take Mexico, for an example. Mexico is the second largest economy in Latin America and has a large untapped payments opportunity. To capture this, we've been investing in expanding our product capabilities within Mexico. And since 2021, this has allowed us to double our client count and increased transaction counts by nearly 10x. And Mexico is just 1 example. We have similar product expansion and modernization work going across many of the countries in our footprint.

以墨西哥为例。墨西哥是拉丁美洲第二大经济体，支付领域潜力巨大。为了抓住这个机会，我们在墨西哥不断拓展产品能力。自2021年以来，我们在当地的客户数量已实现翻番，交易笔数增长近10倍。而墨西哥只是其中一个例子，在我们业务覆盖的许多国家，我们也在进行类似的产品拓展与现代化升级。

We are also expanding into new markets to capture new opportunities. One exciting announcement is that we have launched in ADGM, UAE's free trade zone, earlier this year. We plan to continue adding new geographies in a disciplined manner in the years to come. For example, the Shanghai free trade zone coming soon. Now I'd love to share other countries on our road map, but you, as investors, are not the only ones listening.

我们也在进入新市场以抓住新的机遇。今年年初我们正式进驻了阿布扎比全球市场（ADGM）——阿联酋的自由贸易区，这是一个激动人心的里程碑。未来几年，我们将以审慎的方式持续拓展新市场。例如，上海自由贸易区也即将上线。虽然我很希望能向大家透露更多计划中的国家，但你们这些投资者并不是唯一的“听众”。

Let me recap what Max and I covered over the last few minutes. We have an incredibly powerful franchise that we deliver to our clients, large and small, across the globe. They choose us as their primary operating bank because of the safety, the scale and innovation we deliver every single day. We continue to deliver strong performance, driven by double-digit organic growth and recurring revenue streams, and we believe that our targeted investments in state-of-the-art platforms and innovation set us up for high-quality growth in the long term. We have a great hand. And even with moderate rate headwinds, we believe our business is well positioned to add several billion dollars of incremental annual revenue in the coming years. We truly hope you're as excited about our business as Max and I are. And with that, I'll turn it back to Doug and Troy.

让我总结一下过去几分钟我和Max所讲的内容。我们为全球各类客户提供了极具实力的支付平台。他们之所以选择我们作为主要运营银行，正是因为我们每日所交付的安全性、规模和创新能力。我们的业绩持续强劲，得益于双位数的有机增长与可持续的经常性收入来源。我们相信，在尖端平台和创新领域的定向投资，将为我们带来长期的高质量增长。我们手中的牌非常好。即便在温和的利率逆风下，我们仍有信心在未来几年新增数十亿美元的年收入。我们真心希望你们能像我们一样，对这项业务充满信心。接下来我将时间交还给Doug和Troy。

Douglas Petno Co-CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank

Thank you, both. So let us just close today by saying that we are immensely grateful for the trust that our clients place in us every day. It's something we never take for granted. So to add even more value to our clients and to best compete in the future, we're going to continue to invest in our franchise, and we're going to continue to evolve our business. We believe the strategic reorganization that we completed last year positions the new CIB to capitalize on our strengths and to continue to deliver strong results. Our talent, our culture, our proven track record give us confidence in the future.

谢谢你们两位。最后，我想说的是，我们对客户每天给予我们的信任怀有深深的感激之情。这种信任，我们从不视为理所当然。为了为客户创造更多价值，并在未来保持竞争力，我们将继续投资于我们的业务平台，不断推进业务演进。我们相信，去年完成的战略重组使新的企业与投资银行（CIB）能够更好地发挥优势，并持续实现强劲业绩。我们的人才、文化和已被验证的业绩记录，都让我们对未来充满信心。

And so before we turn it over to Q&A, Troy is going to give us some more detail on our outlook for the second quarter.

在进入问答环节之前，Troy将为大家介绍我们对第二季度的展望细节。

Troy Rohrbaugh Co- CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank

So now I think the part many of you have been waiting for all morning, guidance. So in Investment Banking, we expect the second quarter IB fees to be down mid-teens, plus or minus year-on-year, depending on how the remainder of the quarter plays out. And in markets, we had a strong start to the quarter. However, volatility has moderated. As of today, we expect growth in the mid- to high single digits year-on-year. But keep in mind, for both markets and investment banking, we're operating in a very uncertain market and uncertain environment, which makes forecasting quite difficult. So with that, thank you, and we'll take any questions.

接下来是大家一早以来最关心的部分——业绩指引。对于投行业务，我们预计第二季度的投行手续费收入将同比下降中十位数，具体情况还需视本季度剩余时间的市场表现而定。至于市场业务，本季度开局强劲，但市场波动性有所缓和。截至目前，我们预计市场业务同比将实现中至高个位数的增长。但请注意，无论是市场业务还是投行业务，我们当前都处于一个高度不确定的市场和宏观环境中，因此预测存在较大挑战。谢谢大家，现在我们进入问答环节。

Jeremy Barnum Executive VP & CFO

But before I hand it over to Marianne, I'm happy to take any burning questions that you have right now. And Mike Mayo has his hand up.

在交给Marianne之前，我可以先回答一些紧迫的问题。Mike Mayo已经举手了。

Michael Mayo Wells Fargo Securities

You mentioned inorganic growth. What do you mean by that? What priorities there? What would you look at? And would you consider a non-U.S. bank for inorganic growth?

你们提到了“非有机增长”。具体是指什么？你们的优先方向有哪些？会考虑收购一家非美国银行以实现非有机增长吗？

Jeremy Barnum Executive VP & CFO

I mean I'm sure Jamie will enjoy addressing that question later. He's right here. But I mean my quick take on that is, like, obviously, inorganic opportunities, by which we mean, by and large, acquisitions, are always on the table. And we've been through phases of doing more and fewer. A few years ago, we did a few. Recently, we've done fewer. And I think the larger point is that when we've got this much excess capital, it would be wrong, I think, for us to be foreclosing that option. But at the same time, we've learned some lessons from the ones that we've done, and we know they're hard to digest, hard to integrate. And so we're going to be appropriately cautious, but it always has to be on the table.

我想Jamie稍后一定会很乐意来回应这个问题（他现在也在这里）。我先简单说一下：所谓非有机增长，基本上是指收购，这类机会我们一直保持开放态度。这些年来我们经历了收购活跃期，也有一段时间较少收购。几年前我们做过一些收购，最近则相对较少。我认为关键是，在我们拥有大量盈余资本的情况下，完全排除这类选项是不合适的。当然，我们也从过去的收购中吸取了不少教训，知道整合起来并不容易。所以我们会非常审慎，但永远不会把这个可能性从桌面上拿走。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Steven?

Steven Alexopoulos TD Cowen

Jeremy, Steve Alexopoulos. So I want to follow up on the early comment that you can't outgrow us. So if we look at the last 5 years, revenue CAGR is about 8%. You're a point above on PPNR. When you think about the market share opportunity for the businesses, you look forward 5 years, can you continue revenue high single digit? And when you think about using AI to increase efficiency, productivity, when you think of the gap, do you see the gap between PPNR and revenue CAGR widening or staying about the same with a point?

Jeremy，Steve Alexopoulos在这儿。我想追问一下你们早前提到的“你无法比我们成长得更快”的说法。如果我们回顾过去5年，营收的复合年增长率约为8%，而税前利润（PPNR）增长率高出约1个百分点。展望未来5年，你们认为是否能持续保持营收的高个位数增长？再看人工智能对效率与生产力的提升作用，你们认为PPNR与营收CAGR之间的差距会进一步扩大，还是仍维持在约一个百分点的水平？

Jeremy Barnum Executive VP & CFO

Right. Okay. So there's a lot in that question. Let me start by actually reframing what we mean by you cannot outgrow us, right, because that statement is made in the context of the customer franchise and our ability to serve customers from the smallest to the largest through every evolution of domestic expansion, international expansion, all forms of growth and serving customers through their entire journey.

好的，这个问题信息量很大。让我先重新定义一下我们所说的“你无法比我们成长得更快”——这句话的核心是客户基础，即我们具备为从最小到最大的客户提供全周期服务的能力，无论是国内扩张、国际扩张，还是任何其他形式的增长，我们都能持续支持客户的每一步。

Your question pivots to share growth opportunities and expense and revenue and the associated math. And I guess, at a high level, what I would say is that, of course, given our size and our breadth and depth, we periodically get the question, are you capped out in terms of share? But I sort of go back to like Investor Days from 10 years ago, where Daniel was talked about the reds and the ambers behind the greens, right? We may have dominant share positions at a high level of aggregation in any given business. But as you dig down at higher levels of granularity, there are often areas where we can get better.

你的问题更多是关于市场份额增长机会、支出与营收之间的数学关系。对此，我想从一个宏观角度回应。确实，考虑到我们的体量、广度与深度，我们经常被问到一个问题：“你们的市场份额是不是已经到顶？”但我想起了10年前的投资者日，当时Daniel提到“绿灯背后的红灯与黄灯”这一比喻。即便在某些业务线整体上我们已占据主导地位，但深入到更细化的层级，仍然存在许多可以提升的空间。

And that old red, greens and amber story was about the CIB, but we have the same narrative in CCB with the branch expansion strategy, where in some of the newer markets, that branch footprint isn't fully seasoned, and so we see significant growth opportunity there. So our strength is not going to be a reason that we're not pushing really hard to continue taking share.

那个“红-黄-绿灯”理论当时是讲CIB的，现在同样适用于CCB的网点扩展战略——在一些新进入的市场，我们的分支机构网络尚未完全成熟，因此仍有很大的增长潜力。所以，我们的规模并不会成为我们停止积极争夺市场份额的理由。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Okay. We'll take our last question from Betsy down there.

好的，我们来听Betsy的最后一个问题。

Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley

So 2 questions. One is, you had the slide on regulatory complexity, and I know we've heard a lot from many at JPMorgan around how suggestions on how it could get easier. And the question I have is, I know we don't have the new potential rule set out there yet. But assuming that you get what you have been looking for, which is very rational, would that open up more opportunities for growth for you or not? Just wondering, would the capital request coming from the business lines be able to expand to meet this interest in growing, right, faster?

我有两个问题。第一个是关于监管复杂性——你们展示了一页相关幻灯片，我也知道JPMorgan内部多次就简化监管提出过建议。问题是，虽然新规则尚未发布，但如果你们如愿以偿，监管实现了你们所期望的那种理性调整，是否会为你们带来更多增长机会？换句话说，来自各业务线的资本需求是否能在更宽松的监管下进一步扩大，从而加快增长节奏？

Jeremy Barnum Executive VP & CFO

I mean my short answer to that question is yes, absolutely. And that's a big part of why we advocate in the way that we do, right? We want banks to be part of a new wave of growth in the U.S. economy and the global economy. And the current scheme makes that hard, and it's not just capital. It's the broad combination. It's a number of the things that I mentioned, right? It's the primary measures. It's the liquidity backstops. It's the way the discount window works. It's the intersection of the various short- and long-term liquidity rules.

我的简短回答是：当然会带来增长机会，这也是我们为什么如此积极推动监管改革的原因之一。我们希望银行能够参与并推动美国乃至全球经济的新一轮增长，而当前的监管体系使得这一点变得非常困难。而且问题不仅仅是资本要求，而是整个制度组合。包括我之前提到的多个方面，比如主要监管指标、流动性支持机制、贴现窗口的运作方式，以及各类短期与长期流动性规则之间的相互影响。

So that's why changing -- we got very focused on like Basel III Endgame, RWA expansion. But even within that, you have intersections between G-SIB score, operational risk, FRTB, RWA expansion and then say, you do get a bunch of extra capital to deploy out of all that. You need to be able to lever it, and that requires tweaks to the TLAC rules, how does liquidity get handled, how does that all play through resolution. So it's a big complicated ecosystem.

这也是我们为什么如此关注巴塞尔协议III最终框架、风险加权资产（RWA）扩张等议题。但即便在这些改革中，还涉及系统重要性银行（G-SIB）评分、操作风险、FRTB市场风险框架、RWA扩张等多方面交叉影响。即使最终释放出了一部分可部署资本，你也需要有能力将其杠杆化使用，而这又涉及TLAC（总损失吸收能力）规则的调整、流动性的管理方式，以及这些因素在破产清算框架中的传导机制。这是一个庞大复杂的生态系统。

And if you want to get all the benefits of some cleanup and some rationalization, you probably do need to look at it holistically. We recognize that that's complicated, and there are some easy fixes that we do think should happen now, recalibration of G-SIB in the right way being one really obvious example. That can be done on a stand-alone basis, and it would eliminate a degree of freedom that would make it easier to sort of resolve all the other sources of complexity as all the interactions play out. So I do think there would be opportunities to deploy, but it's not just one tweak that's needed.

如果你想真正实现监管的清理与合理化，你必须用系统的视角去看待整个框架。我们理解这很复杂，但其中也有一些可以立即推进的“低难度”改革，比如对G-SIB评分的重新校准就是一个显而易见的例子，这项改革完全可以独立实施，而且能消除一些限制因素，从而为解决其他复杂交叉影响创造空间。所以我确实认为，如果监管改革得当，将释放出更多的资本部署机会，但这绝不是某一项微调就能实现的。

Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley

And if SLR were to change to remove treasuries from the denominator, would that be at all impactful to your opportunity set?

那如果补充杠杆率（SLR）计算方式发生变化，比如把美国国债从分母中剔除，这对你们的业务机会是否会产生影响？

Jeremy Barnum Executive VP & CFO

Look, I mean, that's a very heavily discussed topic. And obviously, the administration has some particular views on it, and various market participants have particular views on it. In the end, the math is not that complicated. And I think that it's important to be clear about the difference between what bank portfolios are going to do versus what bank dealers are going to do and also the distinction between what people are bound by now versus what they might be bound by in crisis moments and the different levels of bindingness across different market actors.

这是一个讨论非常多的话题。显然，监管当局对此有自己的看法，市场参与者也各有立场。但从数学角度看，其实并不复杂。关键在于要区分：银行资产组合的行为和银行交易商的行为是不同的；此外，还要区分目前受到哪些监管约束，以及在危机时刻可能会受到哪些约束——不同市场参与者的受限程度也是不同的。

But broadly, SLR is clearly something -- you'll recall the mention of like properly calibrated backstop measures. SLR is a prominent example of a backstop measure that was not properly calibrated, became binding in exactly the wrong moment, which is why an ad hoc change was needed, which is why we made the reference to the need for the framework to be durable through crisis scenarios.

但整体而言，SLR显然就是一个典型例子——它原本是一个“保障性”监管指标，但校准得并不合理，结果是在最不该生效的时候变得具有约束力，从而迫使监管机构临时调整。这也是我们反复强调的：监管框架必须在危机情境下也具有韧性和可持续性。

So SLR should clearly be fixed. It's a low-hanging fruit. It should be done. And it will certainly bring some benefits somewhere. We're just like a little bit cautious about managing expectations there.

因此，SLR应该被修正。这是一个“低垂的果实”，确实值得推进。它肯定会带来一些好处，只是我们在对外设定预期方面仍然会比较谨慎。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的，非常感谢。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Right. We have about 10 minutes for questions here. Erika, why don't you go first?

好的，我们还有大约10分钟的时间用于答疑。Erika，你先来吧？

L. Erika Penala UBS Investment Bank

So on Card, now you have your 2 biggest competitors, American Express and Capital One, both own credit card networks. And of course, especially American Express have touted the advantage of having a network and having better data, especially and how that gives them an edge and affluent, and you talked about getting bigger in affluent. I'm wondering as you think about the continued challenge of taking on these 2 competitors, how you're thinking about competing now that both these competitors have perhaps an advantage on having these credit card networks.

关于信用卡业务，现在你们最大的两个竞争对手American Express和Capital One都拥有自己的信用卡网络。特别是American Express，他们一直强调拥有网络带来的数据优势，尤其是在富裕客户群体上的竞争力。你们也提到正在扩大富裕客户业务。那么，在面对这两个拥有网络优势的竞争对手时，你们是如何思考竞争策略的？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Okay. So a couple of things. First of all, as you know, American Express has had the network the whole time. We've been competing with them, notwithstanding the Capital One-Discover merger.

好的，我有几点想说。首先你知道，American Express一直都有自己的网络。我们在这方面一直与他们竞争，即使Capital One和Discover合并之后也是如此。

I'll start just by saying that our network partners, Visa and Mastercard, have spent tens of billions of dollars year after year, investing in, I think, the best networks that exist that have extraordinary international coverage and like holistic acceptance. And so we're very proud to partner with them.

Obviously -- and I would also say that I think our data assets are equally powerful because while it is true that we don't have a credit network that we own, we do have extraordinary partners. We do have an entire CCB franchise. We have the consumer bank. We have the Wealth Management complex. We have all the rest of our lending businesses. And so while they have a strategic asset that we don't have at this moment, we have plenty they don't have. We've been competing with American Express, on that basis, for a long time and have done very, very well.

此外，我也必须指出，我们的数据资产同样具有强大优势。虽然我们没有自有的信用卡网络，但我们拥有非常强大的合作伙伴，以及完整的消费者与社区银行体系（CCB），涵盖消费者银行、财富管理平台，以及其他各类贷款业务。因此，尽管他们有我们当前所不具备的战略性资产，我们也拥有他们所不具备的能力。我们与American Express在这方面竞争多年，表现非常出色。

It would be, of course, remiss of me not to point out that there are risks on the horizon, Credit Card Competition Act being one of them. We can't obviously talk about all of our plans. We don't believe that, that should or will move forward, but we will obviously adapt, and we've shown a pretty remarkable ability to adapt. So I like our hand. We don't have to be exactly the same to do just as well, if not better.

当然，我也要指出，未来确实存在一些潜在风险，比如《信用卡竞争法案》就是其中之一。我们不便透露全部应对计划，但我们并不认为该法案应当或有可能继续推进。但无论如何，我们有极强的适应能力，并已经多次证明了这一点。所以我对我们的竞争实力充满信心。我们无需与对手完全相同，也能做到一样出色，甚至更胜一筹。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Ebrahim, go ahead.

Ebrahim，请开始提问。

Ebrahim Poonawala BofA Securities

Just a question on -- 2-part question on just deposit and your deposit customers. As you think about as the interest rate cycle has matured, how have your view on the economics of the deposit franchise, customer behavior evolved over the last few years?

And second, tied to the payments business, talk to us when you think about digitization, stable coin, blockchain, how do you think about the long-term sort of evolution of deposit franchise and deposit economics for consumer banks?

我有两个关于存款业务的问题。第一，随着本轮利率周期的成熟，你们如何看待过去几年中存款业务的经济性与客户行为的变化？第二个问题是关于支付业务，尤其是数字化、稳定币和区块链方面的。你们如何看待从长期来看这些趋势将如何影响消费银行的存款体系和其经济模型？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Okay. So I'll start with deposit economics moving forward. We -- I feel like when I was CFO, and we were doing this whole before the 2017 through '19 early increases in rates, we were pretty clear about the fact that we thought that the next rate cycle, rates paid would look different and behave different than it had in the past because there are things that are equally, if not more, important to customers than just rate paid and the investments that we have been making in brand, in convenience, in branches, in people, in products, in services, in engagement tactics.

好，我先谈谈未来的存款业务经济性。我记得在我担任CFO的时候，在2017至2019年那轮利率上升周期之前，我们就非常明确地表达过观点：我们认为下一轮加息周期中，客户对“存款利率”的反应方式将不同于过去。因为对客户来说，除了利率，还有很多同样甚至更重要的因素，比如我们在品牌、便利性、网点、人才、产品、服务，以及客户互动策略等方面所做的投资。

And I would say that looking back now over the last cycle, that's proven to be at least somewhat true. And so we did see -- even though the environment was a rapid increase of rates very significant, we did see rates paid lower than our modeled expectations would have been. And so I think that there's no reason for us to believe that the deposit economics will not continue to be very strong as long as we continue to deliver superior products and services and experience and a wide range of them and make it compelling for people to want to bring their financial lives to us, and we've done a good job of that.

回顾过去一轮周期，我们的预测至少在某种程度上得到了验证。尽管利率快速大幅上升，但我们实际支付的利率低于模型预测值。因此我们没有理由不相信，只要我们继续提供优质、丰富的产品、服务与客户体验，让客户愿意将他们的“金融生活”托付于我们，存款业务的经济性就会持续保持强劲。而这方面我们已经做得很不错了。

Obviously, if rates stay higher for longer, we could continue to see competition for deposit, we could continue to see competition for deposits, we could continue to see reprice. We hedge that way. I talked about it. So I think we feel pretty confident in that looking forward. And of course, let's not forget that 50% of all new to Chase customers come in through the bank, the other 50% come in through card and then we deepen. So there's also a lift that way.

当然，如果高利率持续时间更长，存款市场的竞争还会继续，我们也可能面临定价调整。但我们对此已经进行了对冲。我之前也提到过，所以展望未来，我们对此仍然很有信心。再补充一点，我们有一半的新客户是通过银行端进入Chase的，另外一半是通过信用卡业务进入的，然后我们通过交叉销售不断深化客户关系，这也是一种增长动力。

Payments innovation, yes, second part. Payments innovation, look, we welcome innovation. We welcome competition. It is our job to provide flexibility and choice for our customers. I think we've done that and so we're pretty excited about the potential for new payment form factors to participate in consumer payments over the longer term, okay? But of course, we have 2 sort of premises. One is that there must and should be a value proposition for consumers and 2 is that there should be adequate customer protections. And at the moment, that's not true.

至于你问的第二部分：支付创新。我们欢迎创新，也欢迎竞争。我们的职责就是为客户提供多样化的灵活选择。我认为我们已经在这方面做得很好，因此我们对新型支付形式在未来消费者支付领域的参与潜力感到非常兴奋。但我们坚持两个基本前提：第一，这种支付方式必须具备对消费者真正有吸引力的价值主张；第二，必须有充分的消费者保护机制。而目前来看，这两个条件都尚未充分满足。

So it's not -- we're not resisting change. We're all in. We're definitely building capabilities and technology that will allow us to leverage multiple methods of payment everywhere so that our customers can. But right now, the existing payments -- U.S. consumer payments infrastructure is the envy of the world, right? It works safely, securely, reliably, access to funding and credit 24/7 real time and so there are not so many pain points that these things will solve right now if they don't have incremental value propositions if they don't have adequate protections. The U.S. consumer has been habituated to believe that their service providers will have their back, as banks we do. It's incumbent on us to think about new methods of payment, new networks, new to have all of those same things, too. So we're advocating for our customer, no more than that, but I'm excited about payments innovation, and we're going to lean into it, too. You'll hear I think more about that from Umar in a little bit.

所以，我们并不是抗拒变革，相反我们是“全情投入”的。我们正在大力建设能够支持多种支付方式的技术能力，让我们的客户能够随处灵活选择支付方式。但必须指出，目前美国的消费者支付基础设施已经是全球羡慕的对象：它安全、可靠、全天候实时运行，能即时接入资金与信用。因此，除非新型支付方式具备显著增量价值和完善的保护机制，否则它们目前并不能真正解决“痛点”。美国消费者已习惯于相信服务提供者会为他们兜底，而我们银行正是这样做的。我们有责任推动这些新支付形式也必须具备相应的保护体系。我们倡导的是客户利益，仅此而已。但我对支付创新依然非常兴奋，我们也会大力推进。接下来Umar也会分享更多这方面内容。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Saul Martinez, go ahead.

Saul Martinez，请提问。

Saul Martinez HSBC

Slide 21 showing 25% plus head count reductions over a long period of time granted striking. And this might be a question for future Investor Day. The future is coming pretty quickly. I wanted to ask you what you think the implications of that are? Does this lead to a step function change in profitability? Or I mean, I guess, how do you think about how the value gets distributed between shareholders, consumers via pricing or product design and further investments in growth of the business, just kind of the broader implications of that trend.

第21页展示了长期内超过25%的员工数量减少，这是一个相当引人注目的趋势，也许是未来投资者日要讨论的内容，但“未来”很快就来了。我想请问你们如何看待这种趋势的影响？它是否会带来盈利能力的结构性跃升？或者说，从更广义的角度看，这种效率提升产生的价值，你们如何在股东、消费者（通过定价或产品设计）和进一步业务增长投资之间进行分配？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Okay. So look, I'll say a few things. The first thing is that, as you know, we think that we're going to get efficiencies across the board, whether that's in risk management, whether that's in operations or in back office but a lot in revenue productivity, getting more for the same, we have 51,000 op specialists today. We hire 8,000 a year and we're growing at 5%, 7%, 9% a year across various metrics. So we will continue to grow, and so there's going to be offsetting implications. It is part of why we believe we'll continue to outperform in terms of returns.

好的，我来回应几点。首先，如你所知，我们认为将在多个维度持续实现效率提升，无论是风险管理、运营，还是后台流程，尤其是在收入生产率方面——即“用同样的资源创造更多价值”。目前我们拥有约5.1万名运营专员，每年新增约8,000人，并且在多个维度上以5%、7%、甚至9%的速度增长。因此我们还会继续扩张，而人员结构的优化也会产生一定对冲作用。这正是我们有信心持续实现卓越回报的重要原因之一。

Right now, our returns are through the cycle, 25% plus. We're obviously going to just try and do better and better for our customers. But as we get more leverage out of every dollar we spend, then we think that we will grow profits. And as we grow profits, we'll grow capital. And as we grow capital, it will be available to deploy, as Jeremy said, in the hierarchy we normally do -- but it will get more efficient for customers, too.

目前，我们的周期性平均回报率已超过25%。当然，我们的目标是不断优化客户体验。但随着我们对每一美元支出的杠杆效益提高，我们将提升利润。利润增长将带动资本积累，而资本增长又将按我们一贯的优先顺序，如Jeremy所说，被合理配置。同时，这也会让客户获得更高效的服务和更具价值的产品。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

We'll take Betsy next.

我们接下来请Betsy提问。

Gerard Cassidy RBC Capital Markets

Marianne, Gerard Cassidy. You gave us very good granularity on Slide 28 about your deposit growth and how it came about. Did you guys take a look at the impact of the COVID situation and the pandemic and the Fed's balance sheet growing so dramatically as well as the government payments and what that might mean for growth going forward for deposits?

Marianne，你在第28页中对存款增长的来源做了很详细的说明。我想请问，你们是否分析过COVID疫情、联储资产负债表大幅扩张，以及政府财政补贴这些因素对存款增长的影响？并结合这些因素，你们如何看未来的存款增长趋势？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Yes. So that's one of the reasons why -- and if you missed it, I'll repeat it. It's one of the reasons why I said that during the pandemic, we actually assessed that we onboarded about $300 billion of excess deposits because of the relationships we have. We have seen those normalize out of the system. And we would say that cash sourcing, while I know Jeremy said, we're not going to call the end of it, is more behind us than in front of us based upon the range of outlooks that we're looking at. And the excess liquidity that we had has been substantially depleted.

是的，这正是我在会上提到的一点，如果你错过了我可以重复一下。在疫情期间，由于我们与客户之间的关系，我们估算吸引了大约3,000亿美元的“超额存款”。这些超额流动性如今已经逐步退出系统。虽然正如Jeremy所说，我们不会轻易断言“现金流入”已完全结束，但根据我们目前掌握的多种情景预期来看，这种流入已基本成为过去式，我们过去积累的超额流动性已经大幅消化。

And so that's why you're now seeing that the growth trends we were on before, adding about 2 million net new checking accounts a year across consumer business are starting to plow back through to regain the momentum we had before. So obviously, there's nothing about the last 5 years that has been normal. In fact, you might argue there's not a lot about the last 10 years, that has been normal. But we do think that deposit growth in the industry should grow, why not plus or minus nominal GDP, and we're going to outgrow it.

这也是为什么我们现在重新回到疫情前的增长轨迹上了——我们每年新增大约200万个净新增支票账户，增长势头正在恢复之前的动能。很显然，过去5年里没有什么是“正常”的，甚至你可以说过去10年也不是。但我们确实认为整个行业的存款增长应当与名义GDP同步增长（上下浮动），而我们将实现高于这一水平的增长。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Okay. We'll take our last question from Betsy Graseck down there.

好的，我们来听今天的最后一个问题，来自Betsy Graseck。

Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley

Marianne, 2 questions. One on just the deposit discussion we've just been having. Open banking seems to come and go as a potential change to the system and I'm sure you've thought quite a bit about it. Could you give us your views on how you're preparing for the possibility that open banking comes through? And then on card, just wanted to understand getting to 10% of spend, how much of that is fueled by loans?

Marianne，我有两个问题。一个是关于我们刚才讨论过的存款问题。开放银行（open banking）似乎时有进展又时有搁置，它可能对体系带来变革，我相信你们对此已经考虑得很多。你可以分享一下你们是如何应对开放银行可能落地的情况吗？第二个问题是关于信用卡：你们提到目标是达到10%的消费份额，这其中有多少是靠贷款拉动的？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Okay. So on open banking, so I should start by saying -- so we can talk about 1033, if you want or maybe we can talk about it outside. But I'll start by saying that for close to a decade now, we have been a leader in making it easy for our customers to get access to their data through industry-leading agreements that we have with third parties, including aggregators and so we completely think that customers should have the choice of moving their data and for that matter, moving their accounts if that's what they choose to do. And we compete because we think we have a better solution for them.

好的，关于开放银行，我先说一点——我们也可以讨论一下1033号规则（注：指的是美国《消费者金融保护法案》第1033条），当然如果你想的话我们也可以之后私下谈。但我想强调的是，近10年来，我们始终处于行业前沿，通过与第三方，包括数据聚合商等签订的领先协议，使客户能够轻松访问自己的数据。我们完全支持客户拥有数据迁移的权利，甚至包括账户迁移，如果他们选择这样做的话。我们的竞争方式是基于我们提供了更好的解决方案。

And so far, despite the fact that we've made it easy to do that. And of course, there are some things that are moving in that direction. So far, we've been proved to be right. It is also the case. You should remember that we think we will be net beneficiaries of open banking, too. right, the ability to consolidate your information and your banking with us. And so we also are a recipient of data through those mechanisms.

到目前为止，尽管我们已经大幅降低了客户迁移数据的门槛，开放银行的趋势也在逐步推进，但事实证明我们的判断是正确的。同时你也应该知道，我们认为自己在开放银行体系中将是“净受益者”。因为客户可以将其金融数据和服务整合到我们这里来，我们也通过这些机制获得数据接入。

So for me, it's less about whether open banking will disrupt. I'm sure it will be a positive disruptor and also competitive. And we feel fine because of the quality of the services we're providing. For me, it's more about the way the rules are written and making sure that the playing field is level, that the liability follows the instigator of the activity, that risk management is not something that the banks have to do all the way through the ecosystem, multiple hops away, that we're able to get paid properly for the services we provide. And that, more importantly and most importantly, that customer's data is only used for the thing that they wanted to be used for in the moment that they wanted to be used and not subsequently monetized by third parties in less secure ecosystems.

所以对我来说，问题不在于开放银行是否会带来“颠覆”，我相信它确实是积极的颠覆，也将带来竞争。但我们对此并不担心，因为我们服务质量足够强。我们真正关心的是规则如何制定，确保公平竞争的环境，比如责任应归属于发起行为的一方，风险管理不应该成为银行在这个跨层级生态系统中全权承担的责任。我们提供服务，也应获得合理的回报。最重要的是，客户的数据必须仅用于他们授权的目的与时间，不能被第三方在不安全的系统中进行额外商业化利用。

Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley

Thank you. And then on the cards?

谢谢。那关于信用卡的问题呢？

Marianne Lake CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Oh sugar. sorry, what was the card one?

啊对不起，刚刚忘了你问卡片什么来着？

Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley

The card spend goal that you have. I just wanted to understand how much of that is driven by an increase in the lending that you're providing to your customers to hit that spend goal?

你们提到希望信用卡支出占比达到10%，我想知道这个目标中有多少是靠你们增加对客户的信贷投放来实现的？

Marianne Lake – CEO of Consumer & Community Banking

Yes. We actually don't really have a spend goal. We actually currently have a lend goal, not because we usually say either of those 2 things as a goal. They usually are an outcome of best-in-class products and services, marketed to the right customers, great execution, et cetera. We only set ourselves a lending goal because we believe that we're actually structurally punching below our weight and lending, in particular, in affluent and small business compared to our 23.5% sales share. And so in both cases, they are an outcome of acquiring these 10 million customers, making sure we're acquiring the right customers, making sure that we're focused on benefits and engagement that they want to use.

是的，其实我们并没有设定一个“刷卡消费份额”的目标。目前我们设的是“贷款增长目标”——但这并不代表我们通常会设定这两类目标，因为这类指标通常是优质产品与服务、精准客户定位和高效执行的自然结果。之所以设定贷款目标，是因为我们认为在贷款市场中，特别是在富裕人群和小企业领域，相比我们23.5%的消费份额，我们目前的贷款渗透率实际上是“低于能力水平”的。在这两方面，我们的目标都是通过吸引那1,000万新增客户、吸引对的客户，并专注于他们真正想要使用的权益与参与方式，来实现的。

So we've never built our products to be profitable because of breakage in use of benefits. We built them hoping you use 100% of every dollar of value we put in them because that's the flywheel that continues to drive growth. And so our growth that is -- has pretty consistently, historically been plus or minus double digits. We expect that to continue just because of the products that we have in market that are diversified across segments, cashback, premium T&E, and we have the best co-brand partners, and we're the #1 co-brand issuer so we have scale.

我们从未将“权益未被使用（breakage）”作为盈利手段。我们设计产品时的初衷是希望客户能够真正用满我们提供的每一美元价值——正是这种“飞轮效应”持续推动我们业务增长。我们的增长历来都相对稳定地保持在双位数上下，未来我们也期望延续这一势头，因为我们的产品组合本身就覆盖广泛，从返现类、到高端差旅类应有尽有；此外，我们拥有业内最强的联名卡合作伙伴，也是全美最大的联名卡发卡行，具备强大规模优势。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Operator

We will now take a short break

我们现在进行简短休息

[Break]

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

Okay. We're running a little behind, but we'll take 5 minutes of questions here. [Scott C.] first.

好的，我们稍稍落后时间表，但现在再留5分钟回答一些问题。Scott C.，请先提问。

Unknown Analyst

I guess so much production in volatility, it's unclear how much uncertainty we've really reduced over the past several weeks. Maybe if you could provide just sort of a little color on kind of where your clients are at? Has these last few weeks emboldened them or given them enough visibility to move forward? Or are we still in that kind of pause where we were several weeks ago?

近期虽然波动性数据显著下降，但我们很难说不确定性是否真的减少了。我想请问你们怎么看客户的当前状态？过去几周的市场动态是否让他们更有信心采取行动，还是仍处于前几周那种“暂停观望”的状态？

Douglas Petno – Co-CEO of the Commercial & Investment Bank

Yes. I mean, look, it's hard to make general comments about client sentiment just because the facts and circumstances are unique to every one of our clients. But I think in a general way, clients entered the year very bullish, expecting pro-growth, pro-business, deregulatory environment, maybe some more big M&A. And when they start to see some flashing yellow, flashing red signs and a slowdown in the economy, many tapped the brake. And then with the events of April, everybody put everything on hold. I think I'm talking about our corporate clients now, not our trading clients per se.

是的。首先，我要说的是，很难对客户情绪做出一刀切的评论，因为每位客户所处的具体情况都不同。但从整体趋势来看，客户今年年初时的情绪非常乐观，期待的是一个支持增长、利好商业、去监管化的环境，也期待出现更多大型并购。然而随着一些“黄灯”甚至“红灯”信号开始闪现，经济出现放缓，许多客户开始踩刹车。而4月的事件发生之后，几乎所有人都按下了暂停键。我这里主要是指企业客户，不是交易类客户。

And you think about what's open and in the air right now, almost every input variable on capital budgeting or valuing a company. Interest rates, discount rates, currencies, taxes, all of that stuff is yet to be determined. So I think all those puzzle pieces have to come together. So the typical clients kind of got their foot on the brake at the moment, wait and see attitude, waiting to sort of more clarity on. And tariffs are only 1 part of it. It's what kind of landing we're going to have in the U.S. and globally.

你看看目前那些“悬而未决”的关键因素，几乎涵盖了所有影响企业资本预算和估值的变量——利率、贴现率、汇率、税负等等，全都还不明朗。所以所有这些“拼图”都必须就位后，客户们才会重新行动。目前大多数客户都在“踩着刹车”，持观望态度，等待更多确定性。关税只是其中一个因素，更重要的是美国及全球到底会迎来哪种“软着陆”或“硬着陆”情境。

Troy Rohrbaugh – Co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank

I think even investor clients are right where Doug described. I mean we saw volumes at multiples of what we normally saw. And I think a lot of them now are in wait-and-see mode as well, and you see that in volumes and volatility.

我认为连投资类客户目前也正如Doug所说那样。今年早些时候我们确实看到交易量比平时高出几倍，但现在很多投资客户也进入了观望状态，你可以从交易量和波动率中清晰看到这一点。

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

Ken Usdin?

Kenneth Usdin – Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Okay. Ken Usdin. Just -- Troy made some comments in your remarks just about the fee pool in markets, and I'm just wondering about where do you think market share can go to and your point about especially the markets fee pool, do you continue to see that potentially growing over time? It's continued to upside surprises us over since the post-pandemic time.

Troy 刚才提到了市场业务的费用池（fee pool），我想请问你们如何看未来的市场份额走势？尤其是你们提到的市场费用池，自疫情后持续超出预期，你们是否认为这部分仍有增长潜力？

Troy Rohrbaugh – Co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank

Yes, sure. A couple of questions, and I'll try to answer. So I think post-pandemic, people asked every year, ourselves included, like when is the pool going to normalize. And I think we thought it would, everyone in this room probably thought it was. And I think in the beginning, it was more of a surprise, but now I think it's not going to normalize anywhere near those levels because you're in a totally different environment. I mean if you think about that pre-COVID period, you had rates at 0, lots of monetary stimulus, volatility near all-time lows. Like we're just not there and unlikely to go back there.

当然，这里面有几个方面我来一起回答。自疫情后，每年大家，包括我们自己都在问：市场费用池（fee pool）什么时候会回归正常水平？起初我们也认为它会回归，这个房间里的大多数人当时可能也这样认为。但现在我们意识到：市场环境已经完全不同，回到过去那个水平的可能性很低。疫情前是零利率、大量货币刺激、波动性处于历史低位的时代——我们现在不在那个环境中了，也不太可能回去了。

So I think the broad fee pool in markets won't go back to those pre-COVID levels. And then when you have moments like this where volatility is higher, you can see it, the volumes explode across the market, the opportunity. And what I was specifically referring to is if you continue to have volatility like we've seen like in the last month or the first part of the year, this year alone could be better than we expected in markets.

所以我认为市场业务的整体费用池不会再回到疫情前的水平。当市场出现较高波动性时，交易量就会在市场各个领域爆发，机会也随之而来。我的重点是：如果未来的波动性维持在像我们最近一个月、或今年年初那样的水平，仅就今年而言，市场业务表现就可能好于我们原先的预期。

And then the third thing is just generally, I think we can gain market share in markets. We continue to see the benefits of our investment in equities. We're growing our and deepening our client franchise across the whole space. There's real opportunity in corporate. So in fixed income, it won't be easy, but I think we can gain share. And in equities, I think we'll continue to benefit from our investments.

第三点，从整体来看，我认为我们在市场业务中仍有市场份额可争。我们在股票业务上的投入正逐步展现成效，在整个市场上，我们的客户基础持续扩大、关系不断加深。尤其在企业客户板块，我们看到了实质性机会。在固定收益领域，竞争不会轻松，但我认为我们仍有机会扩大份额；而在股票方面，我们将持续受益于过去几年所做的投资。

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

Okay. We'll take our last question from Glenn Schorr.

好的，最后一个问题来自Glenn Schorr。

Glenn Schorr – Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

I guess I want to get the right perspective on your thoughts on the growth opportunities across private markets. I think JPMorgan has done more than just about any bank in terms of positioning, adapting to what client needs. But your success order of $13 billion compares to like direct lending market of close to $1 trillion, a private credit market of $2 trillion. How much can you address in terms of clients' needs? What is the perspective on the wallet you're going after? I know you partner with those same competitors on many fronts. But in terms of you as a lender and facilitator, I'm curious how much you can get of the private markets wallet.

我想请教一下你们如何看待私募市场（private markets）中的增长机会。我认为摩根大通在这方面的布局、适应客户需求方面做得比其他银行都好。但你们目前在直接放贷领域的业务量是130亿美元，而整个直接放贷市场接近1万亿美元，整个私募信贷市场更是高达2万亿美元。你们能覆盖客户需求的程度有多少？你们怎么看这块“钱包”的切入空间？我知道你们和这些竞争对手在很多领域都是合作伙伴，但从贷款人和撮合者的角度看，你们有多大机会切入私募信贷的“钱包”？

Troy Rohrbaugh – Co-CEO of Commercial & Investment Bank

Yes. I mean, look, I think we hit it hard because it's an important part of how Doug and I are thinking about the business. We're not doing it to grow assets. Like we're not trying to compete in asset gathering with any of the major direct lenders out there. What we're trying to do is stay in the middle of the ecosystem and stay connected to our clients. I think personally, the capital available on the street is becoming a commodity. It's the origination that has real value. And I don't think anyone can compete with our origination. The power of this franchise, the investment in bankers, like no one will be able to match that. And so we're just uniquely positioned to, a, help our borrowing clients, but then partner with that entire side in many ways to help them raise assets.

是的，这确实是Doug和我在思考业务发展时的一个重点。但我要强调的是，我们并不是为了增加资产规模而进入这个领域。我们不打算像主流直接放贷机构那样去抢资产，我们的目标是保持在生态系统的核心位置，与客户持续连接。我个人认为，现在市场上的资本越来越像“商品”，真正有价值的是“项目发起能力（origination）”。而在这方面，没有任何一家机构能与我们媲美。我们在银行家队伍上的投资、平台的影响力，使我们拥有独特优势——既能帮助我们的借款客户，又能与资产方展开合作，帮助他们募资。

The reason we're putting our own balance sheet to work is you need to have skin in the game to be in the ecosystem, and there's some interesting opportunities, particularly when you think about things like hybrid structures, et cetera, where, again, we're uniquely positioned. So I think between our origination and our ability to structure, like we are just uniquely positioned where I think some of the more specific direct lending competitors will really value what we bring to the table. So that's how we're thinking about it. Not to mention, unlike everyone else in the space, we have ancillary products with them. We have payments. We have regular banking services. We do lots of other things. So being in the middle of the ecosystem is really important.

我们之所以要动用自有资产负债表，是因为想真正参与这个生态系统，你就必须“有真金白银投入（skin in the game）”。尤其是在混合结构（hybrid structures）等复杂交易方面，我们确实具备独特优势。因此在项目发起能力和结构设计能力方面，我们确实处于独一无二的位置——甚至许多直接放贷的竞争者也非常看重我们能提供的价值。此外，不同于大多数同行，我们还有广泛的配套产品，比如支付服务、传统银行服务等。正因为我们能提供这些全套服务，我们才能真正处于整个生态系统的核心。

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

All right. We'll take a short break now, and we'll come back.

好，我们先休息一下，稍后继续。

[Break]

Operator

Please welcome to the stage, Jamie Dimon.

请欢迎Jamie Dimon登台。

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

All right. Jamie is going to go pretty much straight into Q&A. So get your questions ready. We'll do Betsy down there.

Jamie将直接进入问答环节。Betsy，请提问。

Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley

Thank you for the very detailed outlook for how we can expect that JPMorgan is going to be growing revenues and all the white space opportunities each of the business units have to lean into growth. One of the areas that was not yet discussed is crypto. And I wanted to understand, and I thought Jamie, you were the right person to ask this question since it touches so many different parts of JPMorgan business in the fact that we have this GENIUS Act that is in process, could be passed.

首先感谢你们提供了如此详尽的业务增长展望，也介绍了各个业务单元在“白区市场”上的增长潜力。但有一个尚未涉及的领域是加密货币。我想问这个问题，而Jamie你可能是最合适的人选，因为这事关摩根大通多个业务板块。此外，目前有一项名为“GENIUS法案”的立法正在推进，可能会通过。

And as we go through the next 6 months, and we see some potential regulatory changes coming through on crypto, and we've already seen some that have enabled banks, given them the opportunity to do more, for example, fund accounting, fund administration and crypto. What is the plan that you have for incorporating or not incorporating crypto into the JPMorgan's wheelhouse?

随着未来六个月有可能出台一系列关于加密货币的监管变化，银行已经可以参与某些领域，比如加密基金的会计和管理服务。那么摩根大通未来是否计划将加密货币纳入业务核心领域？或者说，你们对此持何种态度？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

Good one. And when you do ask questions, feel free to ask anything that's on your mind. When you ask about succession, we cover that all at once and not go back to 5 different times. So we already do it. You saw Kinexys. We use blockchain for repo. We're using it for data sharing. You're going to use it for correspondent banking. It will probably be deployed eventually in anything we do where blockchain is an appropriate technology to use. We have been talking about blockchain for 12 to 15 years. We spent too much on it. It doesn't matter as much as you all think.

这个问题不错。顺带一提，各位在提问时尽可以畅所欲言，比如接下来如果有人问继任问题，希望能一次性问完，不要反复提五遍。关于你刚才的问题：我们其实已经在做这方面的事了，比如你们看到的 Kinexys。我们已经在回购交易中使用区块链技术，也在做数据共享，将来还会用于同业清算。只要是区块链技术真正适用的业务领域，我们最终都会部署它。我们已经谈了区块链十二到十五年，说实话我们在这方面投入太多了，但它并不像大家想象的那么重要。

There will be stablecoins. Central banks will look at it. It's going to be used for a bunch of things, some might compete, some might not compete. We're going to be fine either way. If it's a technology we can use, we're going to use it.

稳定币（stablecoins）会存在，央行也会研究它。它将被用于很多事情，有些可能与我们存在竞争，有些可能不会。但不管结果如何，我们都能应对。如果它是一种我们可以利用的技术，那我们就会用它。

Betsy Graseck – Morgan Stanley

And crypto, meaning Bitcoin, right? Would you offer that.

那加密货币这块——比如比特币（Bitcoin），你们会提供相关服务吗？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

I personally -- when I look at the Bitcoin universe, the leverage in the system, the misuse of the system, the AML, the BSA, the KYC, the sex trafficking, the terrorism. I am not a fan of it. We are going to allow you to buy it, and we're not going to custody it. We're going to put it on statements for our clients. So I don't think you should smoke, but I defend your right to smoke. I defend your right to buy Bitcoin, go at it. And nor do I think it matters that much to tell you the truth.

就我个人而言，当我看比特币这个生态系统时，看到的是过度杠杆、系统滥用、反洗钱（AML）问题、《银行保密法》（BSA）、客户身份识别（KYC）缺位，甚至涉及性交易和恐怖主义融资——我不是这个系统的支持者。我们会允许客户去买比特币，但我们不会为它提供托管服务。我们可以把比特币显示在客户的账户报表里。就像我不鼓励吸烟，但我捍卫你吸烟的权利；同理，我也捍卫你买比特币的权利，请便。说实话，我并不认为这事有那么重要。

Mikael Grubb – Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Steven Alexopoulos.

Steven Alexopoulos – TD Cowen

Jamie.

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

Welcome back, I read the whole thing like all 240 pages or -- but welcome back.

欢迎回来，我看完了你写的全部内容——好像有240页？总之，欢迎回来。

Steven Alexopoulos – TD Cowen

So I asked ChatGPT. I said, which pop culture figure is most similar to Jamie Dimon? Do you want to guess what the answer was?

我问了ChatGPT一个问题：哪位流行文化人物最像Jamie Dimon？你想猜猜它怎么说的吗？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

I have no idea.

我一点头绪都没有。

Steven Alexopoulos – TD Cowen

So the answer was Tony Stark, Iron Man. That's actually what it says if you actually plug that...

答案是Tony Stark，也就是“钢铁侠”。你真的问的话，它是这么说的……

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

Never saw the movie.

我没看过那部电影。

Steven Alexopoulos – TD Cowen

What's interesting about Iron Man is Iron Man never retired. If you stay healthy, why can't we get another 10 years as you as CEO? Why are we even talking about this?

有趣的是，钢铁侠从未退休。如果你身体状况良好，为什么不能再当10年CEO？我们为什么还要讨论接班人问题？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

Okay. So let me just do this slowly, okay, because it's important. The most important about the future of the company, in my view, is the disciplines and the culture of the place, which we don't speak a lot about. But with discipline and culture you kind of see up here a little bit, detailed analysis, a little bit humility, going on the road all the time, acknowledging there's always competition coming from a place you don't know that I wish I could thank everyone from JPMorgan Chase in the room, who works with a lot of people, but those -- that is the most important thing at a detailed level.

好吧，我想慢慢来讲清楚，因为这很重要。在我看来，关于这家公司未来最重要的，是它的纪律性和文化。这是我们平时谈得不多的内容。但正是这些文化与纪律，你们其实已经在这次展示中看到了一些体现，比如深入分析、保持谦逊、经常走访客户，并且始终意识到：竞争永远会来自你意想不到的地方。我也希望借此机会感谢在座的每一位JPMorgan Chase的同事——大家一起努力工作，正是这些看似细节的东西，才是公司最核心的基础。

There are basically 50 major businesses here, and a lot of people have mentioned those businesses, and we're going to maintain that discipline. I also think in the room, we have the operating committee members. I don't want to miss anyone [indiscernible] Chase U.K., Jen Piepszak, Chief Operating Officer; Robin Leopold, HR; Lori Beer, Tech; Teresa Heitsenrether, AI, did I miss anyone? Ashley, I didn't -- haven't seen Ashley here, by the way. Tim Berry, Stacey Friedman, law, but the important thing is all the people you see, not just the ones you saw up here, but the whole next layer down, they're in constant education with those folks.

我们公司大概有50个核心业务单元，今天很多人也提到了这些业务。我们会始终坚持那种严格的执行力。我也想强调，我们现场有不少运营委员会成员，我不想漏掉任何人——像Chase U.K.的领导、Jen Piepszak（首席运营官）、Robin Leopold（人力资源）、Lori Beer（科技）、Teresa Heitsenrether（AI），还有Tim Berry、Stacey Friedman（法律）……重点是，这些人不只是你们在台上看到的高层，而是他们下面一整层的管理梯队都在持续学习、持续接受锻炼。

So when we talk about return to the office or home or policies or almost every one of the folks in this room is going to Washington all the time. A lot of us -- those events you saw, I mean, a lot of us go to hundreds of those events where we partner with client, dinners and client meetings and client lunches. So we have built a very deep bench. What we've told you is that the Board has intent, it's not a promise, it's not a commitment, it's intent to be and prudent to be thinking about succession, and we should be doing that.

比如我们讨论回办公室、远程办公、政策变化等等，在座的很多人都经常跑华盛顿，也经常出席你们在投影片中看到的客户活动——我们与客户共进晚宴、开会、午餐，每年数百场。所以我们已经打造了一支非常深厚的人才梯队。我们向大家传达过的是：董事会“有意向”规划继任问题——这不是承诺，也不是决定，而是出于审慎考虑、提前准备，我们应该这样做。

Obviously, it's up to the Board. If I'm here for 4 more years and maybe 2 more or 3, Executive Chair or Chairman, that's a long time. That's like a lot of the present value of the world, okay? So -- but to me, the most important thing when it gets hand over, you have real teams, real cultures and hopefully they keep on building it. If you look at the best companies in the world, that's what they had, okay? They continued going forward regardless necessarily who the CEO was. Any other questions on succession? Let's get them all out, so we can move on to other stuff. Yes, Michael Mayo. I hope you're right about that first $1 trillion bank. So...

当然，最终决定还是由董事会做出。如果我再做4年，然后担任执行董事长或普通董事长再做2年或3年，那已经是很长的一段时间了。那几乎可以说是“当今世界的现值总和”了（笑）。但对我来说，真正关键的是：在交棒的那一刻，公司有真正成熟的团队、真正扎实的文化，并且还在不断建设。如果你看看世界上最优秀的企业，它们的共同点就是——它们的发展从来不是因为某个特定CEO，而是依靠制度与文化本身在驱动。关于继任的问题还有没有其他想问的？我们一次性说完，好换别的主题。Michael Mayo？我希望你预测对了，我们将成为首个市值一万亿美元的银行（笑）。

Michael Mayo – Wells Fargo Securities

But why don't you retire after you get to $1 trillion? What was your answer to that last question?

那你为什么不等市值到达一万亿美元再退休？你刚才那个问题的答案到底是什么？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

What was the question?

（装傻）问题是什么来着？

Michael Mayo – Wells Fargo Securities

How many more years are you going to be CEO?

你还打算做几年CEO？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

It's -- the intent is the same as we said last year. Nothing's changed at all.

我们的意向和去年说的一样，完全没有变化。

Michael Mayo – Wells Fargo Securities

If you want to dream the dream with perhaps some shackles getting released and you can do whatever you want deal-wise, what would you do in terms of buying outside the U.S., whether it's a Canadian bank or a bank in Asia or a private equity firm and you have a lot of excess capital, you're going to have a lot more excess capital. Jeremy mentioned maybe doing deals, what would you -- if dream the dream.

如果我们做个“梦想畅想”，假设监管限制放开、你可以随意做交易，你会不会去收购美国以外的银行，比如加拿大的银行、亚洲的银行，或者一家私募股权公司？你们现在有大量过剩资本，未来还会有更多。Jeremy也提到或许会有交易发生。那你“梦想中的交易”会是什么？

James Dimon – Chairman & CEO

So we should always be looking at acquisitions. So I'm telling the management team today, you should always be thinking about it because acquisitions make you think clearly about the world. We have a lot of adjacencies.

我们永远都应该在关注收购机会。我今天告诉管理层的也是这一点：你们始终都要思考这件事。因为评估收购能让你用更加清晰的视角看世界。我们在很多业务的“邻近领域”都有机会。

If you said you could do something, maybe you would do something overseas or something like that. When you do a major merger if you're allowed to, I don't know, maybe you would. I don't think it will ever happen. So I'm not going to waste time thinking about what is not legal today.

如果说我们可以做点什么，或许会考虑海外业务，或类似的方向。如果某天监管允许我们进行大型合并，那也许我们会考虑——但我并不认为这会真的发生。所以我不会浪费时间去幻想目前还不合法的东西。

But there are adjacencies. You've seen in every business. Mary showed you some that were great for us. Consumer did something great for us. The investment bank has done something great for us. I want them to think about it. That does not mean I want to overpay. It does not mean that we're pushing people to do it. My experience in life is if every acquisition I ever did was looked at 10, but all -- looking at all 10 made us smarter. And that's what I hope we can do and deploying cap, that's one way to deploy capital.

但确实存在一些“相邻领域”可以切入。你们已经在多个业务上看到例子了。Mary刚才提到一些非常成功的案例，消费金融这边做得不错，投行也有突破。我鼓励大家去考虑这些方向，但这不代表我要他们“高价收购”或“盲目冲动”。我的经验是：每一次成功收购，背后可能是我们分析过10个目标；虽然最终只做一个，但分析那10个也让我们变得更聪明。这本身就是资本配置的一种方式。

The other way to deploy capital is in our own businesses. And you have to be very careful about how you deploy capital. I did write this down because organic growth -- someone asked the question, organic growth could be building technology. It could be adding bankers. It could be adding balance sheet.

另一种资本配置方式当然是投资我们自己的业务。关于这一点你必须非常小心。我有记下这一点——有人问到有机增长。所谓有机增长，可能是投入技术建设，可能是招聘银行家，或者扩大资产负债表。

We can add balance sheet tomorrow. We can make a few phone calls. I got Charles right down here, put on $100 billion of risk, take the risk, revenues go up, may have been a mistake.

我们明天就可以扩大资产负债表，比如打几个电话让Charles（注：公司高管）立即放出1000亿美元的风险敞口，收入马上就会上去——但也可能是个错误。

In our business, I have to say this, revenues and expenses are artificial concepts that can lead you to the wrong place. Those branches and bankers that you hire are expenses, but they're long-term investments. Technology you build are expenses and a lot of revenues are bad. If you make loans to the wrong people, at the wrong time, at the wrong price, it's bad.

在我们这个行业里，我必须说，收入和费用往往是“人为构造的概念”，有时会误导你。你开新网点、雇新银行家，在账面上是费用，但本质上是长期投资。你建设的技术系统是费用，但也是真正的投入。反过来说，有些收入是坏的：如果你在错误的时间，以错误的价格，贷给了错误的客户——那种收入就是灾难。

You can add revenues and you're adding a lot of risk. A lot of banks have done that with loans. They've done it with HTM Security. They've done -- it is a bad idea.

你可以轻松“增加收入”，但代价可能是风险暴涨。很多银行在贷款、在HTM（持有至到期证券）上都犯过这种错误——这是个糟糕的做法。

So growing revenues is sometimes bad. Growing revenue is sometimes good. Growing expenses is sometimes bad.

所以：增长收入有时是坏事；增长收入有时也是好事；增长费用也是同理。

I thought Jeremy did a great job today, by the way. He's maturing really nicely, I know. But those expenses and the risk we take in a very thoughtful kind of way, we think we have organic growth opportunities.

顺便说一下，我觉得Jeremy今天表现得非常出色。他确实日渐成熟。而我们对待支出和风险的态度是一贯谨慎、深思熟虑的，我们相信我们仍然拥有真正的“有机增长”机会。

The world is a very complex place. We are in the middle of it in payment systems and Chase Wealth Management.

这个世界非常复杂。而我们正处于其中的核心位置——无论是在支付系统、还是在Chase财富管理业务中。

I also want to point out also the competition. We have to stay humble here, okay? Like Jeremy showed you that chart about how many people have earned over 17%.

我还想提醒大家一点——关于竞争。我们必须保持谦逊。你们看到Jeremy展示的那张图，有多少公司实现过17%以上的回报率？

And if you look at that chart over the last 10 years, those 120 -- of the 12 competitors in the 10-year period, only 8 or 9 times that people earn over 17%. And it was us 5 or 6 of them, Capital One, et cetera, a couple of times, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley a couple of times.

过去10年间，那些主要竞争者中，只有8-9次实现了超过17%的回报。其中有5-6次是我们做到的，另外几次是Capital One、Goldman Sachs、Morgan Stanley等。

If you go back to the 10 years before that, okay, a lot of people earned over 17%. Almost every single one went bankrupt, hear what I just said.

而如果你再往前看——再往前10年——很多公司也实现过17%以上的回报。但几乎所有这样的公司后来都破产了。注意我说的是“几乎所有”。

So I’m not standing in front of you arrogant about JPMorgan. So I hope you're right about our superior position and stuff like that.

所以我站在这里，并不是因为对摩根大通有自满之情。虽然我希望你们是对的，我们确实有很强的竞争地位。

Almost every single major financial company in the world almost didn’t make it.

It's a rough world out there.

这是个“残酷世界”。

You had the global financial crisis. I started working in 1982. It was the worst recession since 1974. You had the '87 market crash. 1990 took Citi to its knees. It took Travelers to its knees.

你们都经历过：全球金融危机。我自己是1982年入行的，那是自1974年以来最严重的一次衰退。你们还记得1987年的市场崩盘吧？1990年，花旗和Travelers都濒临崩溃。

So we're conscious. Our competition is all back. Wells Fargo is back, Bank of America is back, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, but we also have Citadel, FinTech, Revolut.

我们非常清醒。竞争者们都回来了——Wells Fargo回来了，Bank of America回来了，Goldman Sachs、Morgan Stanley回来了，我们还面临Citadel、各种FinTech，还有Revolut。

So we're conscious of that. We've got -- Stripe has done a great job. PayPal has done a great job. Bank of America, believe it or not, does a few things better than us, which always pisses me off.

我们非常警觉。Stripe做得很棒，PayPal做得也很棒。甚至，尽管我不愿承认，Bank of America在某些事情上做得比我们还好——这总让我很恼火（笑）。

Yes. So we're quite conscious. There's a lot of competition, and you have to be prepared every day to make the investments you need to do in your people, your systems, your ops, your culture and stuff like that to actually win.

是的，我们时刻保持清醒。这是一个竞争激烈的环境，而你每天都必须为你的员工、系统、运营、文化等等，持续投资。唯有如此，才能赢。

So I'm convinced we can do it, but we will not do it resting on our laurels.

我坚信我们可以做到，但我们绝不会坐享其成、固步自封。

Michael Mayo   Wells Fargo Securities

So you just described reversion to the mean. So why would you be different than the other.

Michael Mayo，富国证券

你刚刚描述的是“均值回归”。那为什么你们公司会与其他公司不同？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO

I don't think we're going to revert to the mean. I think you saw why. Disciplined, detailed, cultural. We fight every day. We don't assume we're going to win. We know the competition is coming at us in a lot of different ways.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我不认为我们会回归到均值。我想你已经看到了原因：我们有纪律、注重细节、重视文化。我们每天都在奋斗，从不假设自己一定会赢。我们清楚竞争从各个方向袭来。

Mikael Grubb   Head of Investor Relations

Stephen Chubak in the back there.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

Stephen Chubak，在后面那位。

Steven Chubak   Wolfe Research

Jamie, you had that great slide showing in detail the ROTCE simulation under different macro scenarios. And one scenario that didn't appear is a severe stagflation scenario, which is somewhat ironic given how much you've spoken about that potential risk.

Steven Chubak，Wolfe Research

Jamie，你展示了一张非常棒的幻灯片，详细展示了在不同宏观情景下的ROTCE模拟。但有一种情况没有出现，就是严重的滞涨情景，这有点讽刺，因为你之前经常谈论这种潜在风险。

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO

We have that one, too, by the way. We look at lots of scenarios. He just put up some, but yes.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我们也有这个情景分析。我们看了很多种情景，他只是展示了一部分，但确实有的。

Steven Chubak   Wolfe Research

So in that scenario, though, how would the returns fare? And how are you risk managing the entire franchise to ensure you're adequately protected against that risk?

Steven Chubak，Wolfe Research

那在滞涨的情景下，你们的回报会怎样？你们是如何管理整个集团的风险，以确保在这种风险下获得足够保护？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO

So let me just talk about risk for just roughly. I'm not going to talk a lot about geopolitical risk. I would not take it off the table. I think there's an operating assumption inside the room that's not a big deal. It's not going to cause a problem. I don't know. I think the geopolitical risk is very, very, very high. How it plays out over the next several years, we don't know. But it will clearly -- if it does play out worse than what you have today, it would clearly affect all those scenarios.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

让我先大致谈一下风险。我不打算详细谈地缘政治风险，但我不会把它从考虑中排除。我觉得在场有一种假设是地缘政治不是什么大问题，不会造成影响。但我不这么看。我认为地缘政治风险非常、非常、非常高。未来几年会如何演变，我们不知道。但如果结果比现在更糟，它显然会影响所有这些情景。

So we do look at the range of potential outcomes. I think the worst one for a bank and for most companies is stagflation, which is basically a recession with inflation. I think the odds of that are probably 2x the market thinks. I don't know what's going to happen. We would be fine, okay? What happens in that is credit losses go up. They will not be like the global financial crisis. I think credit losses in a recession will be worse than other people think. I think there have been 15 years of pretty happy-go-lucky credit, a lot of new credit players, different covenants, different leverage ratios, the leverage and top of leverage in some of these things. So I think I would expect that credit will be worse than people think you have a recession. But what happens in this stagflation is revenues drop, credit losses go up and then how you manage your balance sheet, but we'll be fine. The worst case there would probably stimulate close to stagflation.

我们确实会审视各种潜在结果。我认为，对银行和大多数公司来说，最糟糕的情况是滞涨，也就是衰退伴随通胀。我认为发生这种情况的概率可能是市场预期的两倍。我不知道未来会怎样，但我们会应对得当。在那种情境中，信用损失会上升，但不会像全球金融危机那样严重。我认为在过去15年中，信贷环境相对宽松，涌现了很多新的信贷参与者，契约条款变化、杠杆比率变化，有些甚至是叠加杠杆的结构。所以在衰退中，我预计信用损失会比大多数人想的更严重。而在滞涨中，收入会下降、信用损失上升，关键是如何管理资产负债表，但我们没问题。最坏的情况大概就是接近滞涨的刺激结果。

Mikael Grubb   Head of Investor Relations

Glenn Schorr.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

Glenn Schorr，请。

Glenn Schorr   Evercore ISI Institutional Equities

Thanks very much. As we listen to all those presentations, there's a lot of global expansion across everything, payments, cards, markets, trading everything. So the question is -- or my question is, is the question about the potential for nationalism and non-U.S. clients keeping some business that used to go to great banks like JPMorgan more internally with local. Like is this a real conversation? I know some of the tariff talk has cooled, but now that it's opened the door, you're seeing more spending locally in Europe, things like that. Do we have a risk that through no fault of your own, some business that a U.S. bank used to get just doesn't get it any more.

Glenn Schorr，Evercore ISI机构股票部

非常感谢。在刚才所有展示中，我们看到全球在支付、信用卡、市场、交易等各方面都有扩张。因此我的问题是：关于民族主义的趋势，以及非美国客户将过去本应交由像摩根大通这样优秀银行处理的业务转向本地银行的可能性，这是不是一个正在发生的真实问题？虽然一些关税争论已经降温，但一旦这种思维被开启，现在你看到欧洲本地的支出有所增加。这是否意味着，即使并非摩根大通自身原因，美国银行原本能拿到的部分业务未来也可能拿不到了？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO

Yes, we have specific examples where we've lost business because of that, not because the clients \[indiscernible] us, but because they said, we have a choice to pick you. We're going to not \[indiscernible] whether it's a Canadian bank or a European bank or something. It's not that big. It's not that significant. I wouldn't change our plans at all fearing that what you just said. The plans are exactly the same. I do expect there'll be some of that if this trade war gets worse, but it's not going to change our plans.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

是的，我们确实有一些具体案例，业务因此类情况而流失。并不是因为客户不喜欢我们，而是他们说，现在我们可以选择合作方，那我们就不选你了——可能选择了加拿大银行、欧洲银行等等。但这种情况目前规模不大，也不算严重。我完全不会因为你提到的情况而调整我们的计划。我们的发展规划完全不变。我确实预期如果贸易战进一步恶化，这种情况可能会更多一些，但不会影响我们的战略方向。

Mikael Grubb   Head of Investor Relations

We have a question way back in there.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

我们后面有一位提问者。

Unknown Analyst

Brent Erensel Portales Partners. With all the talk about deregulation and capital relief, could you tell us what's the appropriate level of capital for JPMorgan and for the industry? Give us some talking points on what you see as capital coming down the way.

不具名分析师

我是Portales Partners的Brent Erensel。关于放松监管和资本缓解的讨论很多，您能否谈谈对于摩根大通以及整个行业来说，什么样的资本水平才是合理的？您对未来资本下降的趋势有什么看法，可以分享一些要点吗？

James Dimon   Chairman & CEO

Well, I think the best way for you to think about it, Jeremy showed you that the -- we're already \$60 billion more. If all things sort out, it should be at least \$60 billion. I can give you a lot of arguments why it should be more than \$60 billion. I don't think the regulators have ever told you about how they really think about capital. I mean when I look at -- and what disappoints me the most, and you saw that chart that Jeremy put up there G-SIFI, SLR, eSLR, TLAC, NSFS, a lot of that was never well thought through. You, not us, were entitled to cost benefit study, you never really got it. You were entitled to understand what the goal was. There should have been statements about if I was the bank regulators about we want mortgages outside the banking system, it's 80% today. We want private credit outside. We want leverage lending outside. We don't want payments inside. There's huge arbitrage taking place today. That arbitrage isn't all a disadvantage to us. We do it, too.

我认为，你要思考这个问题的最佳方式是看Jeremy给你展示的数据——我们现在已经多出600亿美元的资本。如果一切正常运转，至少应该多出600亿。我还能举出很多理由说明为什么应该超过600亿。我认为监管机构从未真正向你们解释过他们是如何看待资本问题的。让我最失望的是——你也看到了Jeremy展示的图表，G-SIFI、SLR、eSLR、TLAC、NSFS——这些很多根本没有经过充分思考。你们，而不是我们，原本有权得到一份成本收益分析，但你们从未真正得到过。你们本应该知道监管目标是什么。如果我是监管机构，我会直接表态：我们希望把抵押贷款移出银行体系——现在80%的抵押贷款已在体系外；我们希望私人信贷在体系外；希望杠杆贷款也在体系外；我们不希望支付业务在体系内。现在系统内发生了巨大的套利现象。这种套利并不完全对我们不利，我们也参与其中。

So these guys are always making arbitrage where we're lending money to people. We can have higher returns on regulatory capital, which I will tell you is artificial. We look at the real risk related to that. So yes, and nothing was a capital. Silicon Valley Bank wasn't a capital issue. First Republic wasn't a capital issue. They were more like liquidity and how they manage their balance sheet type issue, steering regulators in the face. The biggest disappointment to me is that I think we can make the system far safer, more fail safe, give clients better options, lower mortgages, lower costs, et cetera, and make the system safer.

所以这些参与者一直在套利，我们把钱借出去，从监管资本角度看回报率很高，但我告诉你，那是人为的。我们关注的是其中的实际风险。是的，许多问题并非资本问题。硅谷银行的问题不是资本问题，First Republic也不是，它们更多是流动性问题和资产负债表管理问题，明摆着出现在监管者眼前。让我感到最失望的是，其实我们本可以让金融系统更安全、更有韧性，同时为客户提供更好的选择、更低的抵押贷款利率、更低的成本等，让整个体系更安全。

We have had no real conversations with regulators for a decade over that, okay? And that's what they used to do. And Jeremy said they should take a step back, think about what they did, why they did it, how the interface plays. He mentioned G-SIFI. They were supposed to fix G-SIFI 10 years ago. Basel III, 10 years in the making, okay? And a lot of these calculations, which I've mentioned before, are completely asinine. And if they ever were able to get out of their own echo chamber and look at it, we could do a better job in the financial system. In the meantime, JPMorgan will do fine. It doesn't affect what we all do every day up here, serving clients, doing a good job. We'll be able to navigate whatever the regulatory rules are.

我们在过去十年里从未就这些问题和监管机构进行过真正的对话。他们以前是会这么做的。Jeremy也说过，监管者应该退一步，反思自己当初为何那么做，政策之间如何互相作用。他提到了G-SIFI。他们本该在10年前就修复G-SIFI问题。巴塞尔协议III，用了十年才做出来。而其中很多计算方法——我之前也说过——完全是荒谬的。如果他们能跳出自己的“回音室”看看现实，我们本可以让金融系统运作得更好。与此同时，摩根大通依然运转良好。这些规则并不会影响我们每天的工作——为客户服务、做好业务。无论监管规则如何，我们都能应对。

I think Marianne said something like if the rules apply to them and they apply to us, we're probably always fine. I don't like the arbitrage, but I think that causes other problems down the road. Nor do I think they've done a full study about what risk they've created elsewhere in the system. And Jeremy mentioned, he said they shouldn't de facto -- no de facto, ad hoc intervene in the marketplace. So SLR, for example, only 1 or 2 banks today are constrained by SLR. No one else is. Therefore, today, SLR isn't the reason that people go in and intervening more in the marketplace. However, that may change when rules change and collateral changes and asset prices change where people become constrained by SLR. If I was the Fed, I would not want to run a financial system where every time there's a kerfuffle in the marketplace, they have to intervene. And they are kerfuffles.

我记得Marianne说过类似的话：如果规则对他们适用，也对我们适用，那我们通常就没有问题。我不喜欢套利行为，因为它会在未来引发其他问题。我也不认为监管机构对他们在系统其他部分制造的风险做过充分研究。Jeremy提到，监管机构不应该以事实上的方式、临时地介入市场。以SLR（补充杠杆率）为例，现在只有一两家银行受SLR约束，其他都不受影响。所以目前来看，SLR并不是促使人们更频繁介入市场的原因。但当规则、抵押品或资产价格发生变化时，这种情况可能会改变，人们就会因SLR受到约束。如果我是美联储，我不会想要一个每次市场有点风吹草动（kerfuffle）就必须出手干预的金融系统。但确实，现在市场中常常出现这种“骚动”。

The other thing that's very important and press in the room, the reason they should do it right isn't to benefit when people say they're reducing regulation to banks, whether they fix SLR or not will not affect JPMorgan's results for our shareholders.

还有一点很重要，也请在座的媒体注意：他们应该把这些规则做对，并不是为了给银行“减负”。不管他们是否修正SLR规定，都不会影响摩根大通的业绩或股东回报。

JPMorgan can easily handle volatile markets. The reason you don't want volatile markets is the volatile markets scare the s\*\*t out of you and make it harder for companies to raise money. It's not to benefit JPMorgan. So if I was the regulator, I'd be thinking long and hard about why they need to fix these things. I've mentioned over and over the cost of mortgages is like 50 or 75 basis points higher because of regulations that don't need to be there that have no benefit for safety and soundness. And you know who it hurts the most, lower-income Americans. That's who it hurts the most. People buying a small home, their first starter home, and I think they should fix it. And I have a huge disappointment that we have not gone around doing that in the last 10 years.

摩根大通完全可以应对市场波动。我们不希望市场波动的原因是——动荡的市场会吓坏大家，而且让公司更难融资。这不是为了让摩根大通得利。如果我是监管者，我会认真思考为什么这些问题需要被修复。我反复强调：由于不必要、对金融安全没有任何益处的监管规定，抵押贷款利率被推高了50到75个基点。你知道这最伤害谁吗？是低收入的美国人。他们是受害最深的群体——那些想买第一套小房子的人。我认为监管机构应该修正这些问题。让我极为失望的是，我们过去十年一直没有去解决这些事情。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Ebrahim, go ahead.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

Ebrahim，请开始提问。

Ebrahim Poonawala BofA Securities

Just as a follow-up to that, 100 days into the new administration, we have Michelle Bowman getting through the nomination process. You've been through what's happened in the last 15 years. Are you optimistic based on the conversations you've had that you're going to get it right over the next couple of years and the industry will be on a better level playing field against nonbank competitors.

Ebrahim Poonawala，美国银行证券部

作为刚才问题的补充，新一届政府已经上任100天，Michelle Bowman也顺利通过了提名流程。你经历了过去15年的发展和变化。基于你与相关人员的对话，你是否对未来几年能“把事情做对”、让银行业在与非银行竞争对手的博弈中处于更公平的竞争环境感到乐观？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Again, I'm not worried about we're going to compete [indiscernible] JPMorgan, but yes, I think that the Secretary of Treasury, the President of the United States, the new head of the OCC, the new head of the CFPB, Michelle Bowman, Federal Reserve and the SEC have all made it clear to you that they want to fix some of the things they think are broken. I think they'll accomplish some of that. Some will take longer than others, but they all want to do it. The other thing, which, again, for all of you in the room, which I find a huge disappointment, we've gone from 8,000 public companies in 1996 to 4,000 today is operating companies.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我再次强调，我并不担心摩根大通的竞争力问题。但就你提到的内容来说，是的，我认为美国财政部长、总统、新任货币监理署（OCC）负责人、新任消费者金融保护局（CFPB）局长、Michelle Bowman、美联储和SEC都已经明确表达了他们想修复一些他们认为存在问题的地方。我相信他们中的一部分会取得进展，有些可能需要更长时间，但他们确实都有意愿去做这件事。还有一件让我深感失望的事——这是对在座所有人说的——我们从1996年有8,000家上市公司，到今天只剩4,000家实际运营公司。

That number, if you went around the world, is pretty much the same in markets around the world. We are driving companies out of the public marketplace because of expensive reporting, litigation, cookie-cutter approaches to boards, compensation, a litigation that surrounds being a public company. It costs too much money. We've eliminated [indiscernible] the old NASDAQ markets, smaller companies going public have more access to capital with simpler reporting requirements. That's what we've done. Do you all think that's a good thing? I don't think so. But I haven't heard a regulator talk about that at all. And it's not just the one regulation, not just SEC, it's a whole blanket of things why people do not want to be public. I would love to be a private company.

这个趋势，在全球其他市场也基本类似。我们正在把公司赶出公开市场，原因包括高昂的披露成本、诉讼风险、“千篇一律”的董事会与薪酬结构，以及围绕上市公司的各种法律纠纷。这一切代价太高。我们已经消灭了曾经的那种“旧版纳斯达克市场”——小公司可以通过较简单的披露要求轻松上市、获得资本。我们就是这么做的。你们觉得这是好事吗？我不这么认为。但我从未听到有监管者真正讨论这个问题。而且这不仅仅是某一项规定的问题，也不仅是SEC的问题，而是一整套政策体系让人们不愿意上市。如果可以，我也愿意摩根大通是一家私人公司。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Any questions? [indiscernible] allowed to ask questions, too, by the way. All right. Stephen, go ahead.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

还有其他问题吗？顺便说一下，台下的每个人也都可以提问。好，Stephen，请。

Stephen Biggar Argus Research Company

For 20 years, I came to this, I couldn't ask questions. So I got to get my questions.

Stephen Biggar，Argus Research公司

我参加这个会议已经20年了，以前都不能提问。这次我一定要把问题问出来。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

That's correct. You always help with us in those 20 years.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

没错。在这20年里你一直对我们有很大帮助。

Stephen Biggar Argus Research Company

Jamie, on the tariffs, so the initial rollout was a little haphazard. But if you look how it's playing out and you're getting all these investments, what just happened last week coming into the U.S. in countries and companies, how do you put this together? Are these good talking points? Or do you see somewhat of a new industrial revolution really, which would help the bank immensely over the next, call it, 2 decades.

Stephen Biggar，Argus Research公司

Jamie，说到关税，一开始的推行方式有些混乱。但现在你看到的实际效果是，各国和企业正向美国大量投资，比如上周刚发生的一些事情。你怎么看这些现象？它们只是一些“好听的谈资”，还是说你认为这实际上是一场新的工业革命的开端？如果真是这样，那对银行未来20年将是巨大的利好。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I never finished my [indiscernible]. So geopolitics. We have the largest peacetime deficit we've ever had, almost 7% of GDP. If you go around the world, the other major countries around 3.5% of GDP. Our debt to GDP is 100%. And Paul Volk, we had inflation last time around, it was 35% and the inflation was 3.5%. The last time we put in 10% tariffs was 1971. Nixon was President. Things were booming. He was won on a landslide in 1972, almost 60% of the popular vote, and he resigned 18 months later. Inflation had ticked up to 3.5%. They put in price controls. It didn't work. They got rid of gold convertibility. The market went from 1,000 to 540, down 40% plus in an 18-month period. Okay? Things happen out there. We have huge deficits. We have what I consider complacent central -- almost complacent that central banks think they're independent and you all think they can manage through all this. I don't think they manage all that, okay? They set short-term rates, right? They can simply plug a short-term rate.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我刚才没说完，我想讲地缘政治。我们目前正处于和平时期，但财政赤字却是有史以来最高的，占GDP的近7%。世界其他主要国家的赤字大约是GDP的3.5%。我们的债务占GDP的比率达到100%。保罗·沃尔克时期也有通胀，那时赤字是35%，通胀率才3.5%。上一次美国征收10%关税是在1971年，当时是尼克松任总统，经济一片繁荣。他在1972年大选中大胜，赢得近60%的普选票，结果18个月后辞职。当时通胀开始上升到3.5%，政府采取了价格管制措施，结果失败，放弃了美元与黄金的可兑换性。市场从1000点跌到了540点，18个月内跌幅超过40%。所以说，外部环境总是变化莫测。而我们现在面临巨大的赤字，央行却有一种“自满”的态度——他们认为自己是独立的，你们也觉得央行可以应对一切。但我不这么看。他们只决定短期利率，对吧？他们能做的也就是设定一个短期利率。

I would just say they set short-term rates, they don't set the 10-year rate. Who sets the 10-year rate? You do. Foreigners own $35 trillion of U.S. public securities as debt, corporate credit, money market funds and U.S. debt. They're going to help set that rate. And I look at the things being up, including trade, trade in general because not just tariffs, has created a lot of risk out there and that we should be prepared for it. My own view is where people feel pretty good because you haven't seen an effect of tariffs. The market came down 10%, it's back up 10%. I think that's an extraordinary amount of complacency. That's my own view that when I've seen all these things adding up that are on the fringes of extreme kind of thing, I don't think we could predict the outcome, and I think the chance of inflation going up and stagflation is a little bit higher than other people think. There are too many things out there.

我只想说，央行设定的是短期利率，10年期利率不是他们设的。那是谁设的？是你们市场设定的。外国人持有了35万亿美元的美国证券——包括国债、企业债、货币市场基金和其他债务工具。他们会影响长期利率的定价。我看到的情况是，不只是关税，整个贸易格局的变化带来了大量风险，而我们必须做好准备。就我个人来看，现在人们对局势的乐观情绪是过头了，只是因为暂时没看到关税的影响。市场跌了10%，又涨回来10%，大家就觉得没事了。我认为这是一种极度的自满情绪。我看到很多事情正在向极端靠近，我们根本无法预测结果。我认为通胀上升、出现滞涨的可能性，比一般人想象的要高得多。外部变量太多了。

And I think you're going to see the effect even at these low levels, they stay where they are today, that's pretty extreme tariffs. And you also don't know how every country is going to respond, and they are responding. I mean, they're already starting to cut trade deals with other people, et cetera. And even if you want to bring all manufacturing back, it takes 3 to 4 minimum to build a real manufacturing plant years.

而且我认为，即便现在的关税水平看起来不高，它们本身已经是非常极端的措施了。你也无法预测各国会如何回应，但他们确实正在做出反应。比如他们开始与其他国家达成新的贸易协定等等。即便你现在想把制造业全部带回美国，从建一个真正的制造工厂来看，起码需要3到4年。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Richard Ramsden. Go ahead.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

Richard Ramsden，请开始提问。

Richard Ramsden Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.

There's been a lot of discussion about changes to the regulatory environment. But can you talk about if you're expecting changes to the supervisory environment, what you'd like to see change on the supervisory front and what that could mean for JPMorgan and the industry if you get those changes?

Richard Ramsden，高盛集团

最近关于监管环境变化的讨论很多。但我想问的是，你是否预期监管“监督”层面（supervisory environment）也会发生变化？你希望监督方面有哪些改变？如果这些改变真的发生了，对摩根大通和整个行业意味着什么？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I think the -- I mean they almost merged at one point because supervisors have put in rules and rules and rules and MRIAs and stuff, which were regulations, okay? And you probably are aware of some of them. I think it's already changed a lot that people realized that there was a lot of supervision. It was duplicated. I mean, I'll give you one example. Dodd-Frank asked the Federal Reserve to do a stress test. They didn't ask them to build a CCAR regulatory system, which would take us 6,000 people working 6 months a year, 30,000, 40,000 pages of documentation, models, rules, regulation, including climate, reputation around clients. That was never the intent.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我认为——事实上，监管和监督这两块在某些时候几乎融合了，因为监管员们不断推出一条条新规则、MRIAs（重大监管发现事项）等等，而这些其实就是变相的“法规”。你们可能也了解其中一些。我认为现在已经有很多变化，人们意识到监管过度，存在重复。举个例子：多德-弗兰克法案只是要求美联储做压力测试，但他们却建立起了一个CCAR监管体系，这需要我们每年动用6000人、花6个月时间，生成3万到4万页的文档、模型、规则、涵盖气候影响、客户声誉等内容。这根本不是法律当初的本意。

And I actually think it put the Federal Reserve in the middle of regulatory supervisory stuff, which they should have stayed away from. They should have stuck to monetary policy and managing the whole financial system kind of according to Kevin Morris's speech. So yes, I think you're going to see a lot of changes in supervision.

我确实认为，这让美联储陷入了本不该插手的监管监督事务中。他们本该专注于货币政策和宏观金融体系管理，就像Kevin Morris的讲话所建议的那样。所以我认为你会看到监督层面将有很多变化。

And I think you're going to -- a matter of fact, there's an act out there that says that we will have an ability to dispute publicly, legally supervisory activity, which I think would be very good. I think they went so far beyond what was reasonable that they should be embarrassed. That's my own personal view. It's been 15 years of this stuff. And I think they should fire a lot of them, too, by the way.

而且事实上，现在已经有法案在推动，允许我们对监督行为进行公开和合法的申诉，我认为这是件好事。他们已经远远超出了合理范围，到了应该感到羞愧的地步——这是我个人的看法。这些事情已经持续了15年之久。顺便说一句，我认为他们中很多人应该被解雇。

Michael Mayo Wells Fargo Securities

For that last answer, can you put some numbers around it? If you were king of regulation and you don't want to sacrifice one iota of safety and soundness and then eliminate as much bureaucracy and red tape as possible, where would your capital ratios be? And how much better could your efficiency ratio be?

Michael Mayo，富国证券

关于你刚才的回答，你能否给出一些具体数字？如果你是“监管之王”，在不牺牲任何安全性与稳健性的前提下，尽可能消除繁文缛节和官僚作风，那你的资本比率会定在哪里？效率比率（成本收入比）又能提升多少？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I mean I think the efficiency -- I don't know, Mike. So $60 billion of excess capital might it be $20 billion more, that's possible, okay? My view about the cost, as the costs come down, if we all had to do, it would be passed on to customers. It isn't like we just add endlessly to our own margins because as Jeff Bezos says, your margin is my opportunity. So if they reduce that cost, you'll see it in lower cost of mortgages and auto and commercial real estate credits, et cetera. It won't be "Aha, banks are back again." I want banks to be safe. I would limit interest rate exposure more. I would limit HTM more. I would make sure the deposits are spread out a certain way. I would make sure people had assets that were deliverable to the discount window. I'd make the discount window usable. I would make FHLB usable.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我觉得效率比率……这个我不好说，Mike。至于多余资本，我们现在是600亿美元，如果监管更合理，或许可以少200亿，这是有可能的。我的看法是：如果监管成本下降，那些节省下来的成本最终会转嫁给客户，而不是让我们不断提升利润率。正如Jeff Bezos说的：“你的利润空间就是我的机会。”所以如果成本降低，你会看到抵押贷款、汽车贷款、商用地产融资的成本也会下降。而不会出现什么“银行复兴”的景象。我希望银行体系保持安全。我会限制利率风险敞口，限制HTM（持有至到期资产）比例，确保存款分布更加合理，确保银行持有可交付给贴现窗口的资产，让贴现窗口真正可用，让FHLB（联邦住房贷款银行）机制也真正可用。

You may not know this in resolution recovery, the discount window doesn't count. I mean I can go on and on through the inconsistencies and stuff like that, which drives business out of the banking system, creates arbitrage opportunity and creates additional risk. But I don't think we're going to be sitting in 4 years and saying we have higher returns because of all this.

你可能不知道，在破产重组（resolution recovery）中，贴现窗口的可用性是不被承认的。我可以列出一长串这类不一致的规定，它们把业务赶出银行体系、制造套利机会、增加系统性风险。但我并不认为4年后我们会因为这些改变而获得更高的回报。

Michael Mayo Wells Fargo Securities

And your CEO...

Michael Mayo，富国证券

而且你在CEO信中……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I think the system is better because of all this.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我认为，如果做出这些改变，整个系统会变得更好。

Michael Mayo Wells Fargo Securities

Your CEO letter talks a lot about having a more level playing field. And has it gotten worse, better? Where do you stand on that?

Michael Mayo，富国证券

你在CEO致股东信中花了很多篇幅讨论“更公平的竞争环境”。你觉得现在这个问题是在改善，还是在恶化？你怎么看？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It will get better. I think it will get better over time, but I don't know. I think, again, JPMorgan will perform for shareholders, whether it gets better or not. Again, if everyone gets -- if we all have the same rules and regulations, we all benefit the same. So my competition gets it the same way, I get it. So I'm not sitting here saying this is going to be great. I think it's a mistake for you all to think that somehow the margins in the business will go up. No, people will compete with each other. Those margins will be competed away. The people who will perform the best, the people who run the best businesses.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

它会变得更好。我认为长期来看会改善，但我不确定。无论监管环境是否改善，摩根大通都会为股东创造价值。如果大家面临相同的规则和监管，那我们都会受益。所以只要竞争对手也遵守相同的规则，我就没什么可抱怨的。我也不会坐在这儿告诉你说这会带来什么巨大利好。我认为你们若以为这会带来行业利润率的上升，那就是错误的想法。不会的——市场上依旧会有激烈竞争，利润率会被竞争吞噬。最终表现最好的一定是那些管理最优秀的企业。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

All right. Go ahead in the back.

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

好的，后排那位请提问。

Unknown Analyst

So I think there has been an ongoing discussion around whether American exceptionalism is going to triumph in a changing world of geopolitical dynamics. If you look at equity market performance, I think European equity market and emerging market has outperformed the U.S. year-to-date. I'd be curious to hear your thoughts whether you still have this belief in terms of the attractiveness of the financial market in the U.S. versus rest of the world.

不具名分析师

现在有个持续的话题是，在地缘政治格局不断变化的背景下，“美国例外论”（American exceptionalism）是否还会继续主导全球格局。从股市表现看，今年以来欧洲和新兴市场的股市表现优于美国。你是否仍然相信美国金融市场相较于其他地区仍具更大吸引力？很想听听你的看法。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Yes. Well, it's a little more of a complex question. So I do believe in American exceptionalism. I'm a patriot. America has the gifts of God; food, water, energy, the land of the Pacific peace. Peace with our neighbors, Canada and Mexico, which treat very respectfully. We're quite lucky. Then we have the gifts of our founding thoughts, which is freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of enterprise. Those freedoms are enormous. They drive the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen, the best military the world has ever seen. I think it's all still true.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

这个问题更复杂一些。我确实相信“美国例外论”，我是一名爱国者。美国拥有上天赐予的资源：粮食、水、能源，还有太平洋和平带来的地缘优势。我们与邻国加拿大和墨西哥的关系也非常稳定友好。这是我们的幸运。此外，我们还继承了建国思想的财富——言论自由、宗教自由、企业自由。这些自由是巨大的推动力，它们孕育了人类历史上最繁荣的经济体、最强大的军事力量。我认为这些依然成立。

I never believed we were as exceptional as people were saying. I never believed that Europe was as bad as people were saying. I think those got blown out of a portion. Part of our exceptionalism is my belief, I don't know if it's true, is that we borrowed and spent $10 trillion. And that's a lot of money. We borrowed and spent since 2000, $10 trillion. And we borrowed another $1 trillion and we gave it to people. We gave it through PPP, EIDL, unemployment insurance, we gave it to states, cities. We gave it to unions, $10 trillion. And that fuels both inflation, but it fuels growth.

我从未相信美国真如一些人说的那样“例外”，也不相信欧洲如一些人描述的那般糟糕。这些观点都有些夸大。所谓的“美国例外性”，在我看来，部分原因在于我们“借钱、花钱”了10万亿美元，这是巨大的规模。从2000年以来，美国借钱花了10万亿美元；另外还发放了1万亿直接给了个人、企业、州政府、市政当局、工会，形式包括PPP贷款、EIDL、失业补助等。这些刺激了通胀，也刺激了经济增长。

Had the Europe borrowed and spent another $1 trillion, they probably would have another trillion of GDP, too. So there's a part of that. We haven't seen the other side of that amount yet. And also, we have to remember, in the back of my mind, it also drives corporate profits. That $1 trillion ends up in the pockets of restaurant [indiscernible] and corporations and health care companies, and it drives a lot of things that maybe we don't understand and inflates asset prices.

如果欧洲也借多1万亿美元，他们的GDP也可能增加1万亿。所以这背后是有财政刺激成分的。而且我们还没看到这类大规模财政扩张的“反面效应”。在我脑海中，还要意识到这也推动了企业利润。这些钱最终流入了餐饮企业、上市公司、医疗机构等的口袋，并推动了很多我们尚未完全理解的增长，同时也抬高了资产价格。

So Americas asset price, still I think they're kind of high, I put that in the risk category 2 and credit spreads are kind of low. I put that in the risk category 2. I think both of those things may change, and that will change your psyche a little bit. And so -- but the asset -- our PE ratios are at 21% or something like that today, forward-looking. And if tariffs affect that, which I think they might a little bit, the E will come down.

所以我认为美国资产价格仍然偏高，我把这归为“第二级风险”；而信用利差偏低，这也是“第二级风险”。这两件事都可能发生变化，一旦变化，也会影响市场情绪。目前美国市场的远期市盈率（PE）大约是21倍左右。如果关税影响盈利，我认为它确实可能产生一定影响，那么“E”（盈利）就会下降。

Right now, the forecast for earnings, we started the year, S&P up 12%. Now it's up 6% or 7%. My guess is in 6 months, it will be 0 because people would be working through and you've heard a lot of companies talk about guidance. I can't give you. I don't know the cost. I don't know I can pass them on. I don't even know where they're going to be, but I think earnings estimates have come down, which also means probably the PE will come down. If PE comes down 1 turn, that's another 5%.

今年年初的盈利预期是标普500上涨12%，现在是上涨6%或7%。我猜再过6个月可能会降到0%，因为大家都在重新评估。你已经听到很多公司说自己无法给出指引——成本不明确，不确定是否能转嫁成本，不知道未来会怎样。所以我认为盈利预期将进一步下调，而这意味着市盈率也可能会下调。如果PE下调1倍（1 turn），那又是5%的跌幅。

So now you're talking about 10% between earnings and the PE. And I think that's probably a likely outcome in my own personal opinion. I don't like to forecast the stock market. I think the PEs in Europe -- is Michael Cembalest here? He's the one you should always read about this. I think the PEs in Europe are a lot lower. I mean, a lot lower, like 30% or 40% lower, meaning there could be some very good values there on a company.

所以盈利和估值两个因素合计可能带来10%的调整，这是我个人认为较可能出现的结果。我不喜欢预测股市。但欧洲的市盈率要低得多——Michael Cembalest在吗？你们应该去读他的分析。欧洲的PE低很多，真的很多，低了30%到40%，这说明其中可能存在很有吸引力的投资价值。

I don't think in general, they've got a stronger economy than United States. I think that Europe has to do a lot of things, which they know and you finally see Keir Starmer, President Macron, Chancellor Merz, President Tusk, all talking about we've got to fix Europe. They should fix it for themselves, the regulatory environment, the innovative environment, and they've got to strengthen their military relationships in NATO, which I hope America stands by them side by side, which I think we will, by the way, even though it get questioned more and more. Does that answer your question?

总体而言，我并不认为欧洲经济比美国强。我认为欧洲确实还有很多事情要做，他们自己也知道——你现在看到Keir Starmer、马克龙总统、梅尔茨总理、图斯克主席都在说“我们要修复欧洲”。他们应该为自己去改革，包括监管环境、创新环境，还要加强与北约的军事协同。我希望美国能与他们并肩支持，我也相信我们会这么做，尽管这种承诺正面临越来越多的质疑。这个回答是否解答了你的问题？

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Down there?

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

那边那位？

Tim Piechowski ACR Alpine Capital Research

Tim Piechowski from ACR from St. Louis. Kind of was interested in maybe some more commentary from you on private credit. Warren Buffett has spoken about private credit moving into life insurance and causing liquidity mismatch going forward. Could you maybe talk about any concern you have on that and just the general -- I don't know, perhaps credit spreads or terms being too relaxed.

Tim Piechowski，ACR Alpine Capital Research（圣路易斯）

我是ACR的Tim Piechowski，来自圣路易斯。我想听听你对私人信贷（private credit）的更多看法。沃伦·巴菲特曾提到私人信贷正流入人寿保险领域，未来可能引发流动性错配问题。你是否对此感到担忧？另外，现在的信贷利差或条款是否已经过于宽松？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

So I wrote about in my Chairman's -- I did it last year. I always look at things and what would be an honest assessment. So I'm not trying to say it's good or bad. It is good for -- and you're looking at the world from the point of view of the consumer. So if your consumer a middle market company, and there's mostly levers. So it's $1.7 trillion of levers of lending. They're now going to investment grade, which I'll talk about separately. If you can get a unitranche deal, that's pretty good. Flexible covenants, that's not so bad. Maybe a lender will work with you if things are tough, that's okay, too. It's more expensive, like 200 basis points more expensive. And you've seen when rates went up, a lot of people went from direct lending back into the syndicated lending market.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

我去年在股东信中写过这件事。我总是试图给出诚实的判断，不是说它绝对好或坏。从消费者的角度看，私人信贷其实对一些客户是好事。比如中型企业，如果你是这样的客户，在$1.7万亿美元的杠杆贷款市场中，现在部分已经开始向投资级迁移（我后面会谈到）。如果你能拿到一个unitranche（单一债务层级）贷款，那还不错。贷款契约更灵活，遇到困难时贷款人可能也愿意与你协商，这些都不坏。当然，利率更高，可能贵200个基点。你也看到当利率上升时，很多人从直接贷款市场又回到银团贷款市场。

It lacks transparency, that could be good or bad. People don't have a lot of liquidity against it. That could be one thing to the other. I think the people -- if they were up here about the insurance company, they say we're doing 5-year annuities, and we're actually matching the terms of the maturity of the loans with the maturity of the liabilities, but there's less liquidity, huge arbitrage. If I have to take a private credit loan on my balance sheet, I have to hold somewhere between 20% more capital to 80%.

它确实缺乏透明度，这可能是好事也可能是坏事。大多数资产缺乏流动性，这也是一把双刃剑。以保险公司为例，如果他们在这里，他们会说“我们做的是5年期年金，贷款期限与负债期限是匹配的”，但其中的流动性确实较低，也存在巨大套利。如果我在摩根大通的资产负债表上持有一笔私人信贷贷款，我必须为此多准备20%到80%的资本金。

When it goes to insurance companies may not know this, they tranche it. So it's not just they do a BB loan, but they tranche it between AAA, AA and the total credit capital might be 20%, which JP One has to hold because we do it differently. I'm not sure that will survive the next downturn because I think NAIC will look at that and say, my God, these loans -- we should never have allowed that kind of thing inside an insurance company. So because the insurance companies rate them differently, that may not survive the next downturn.

而当这些贷款被卖给保险公司时，你可能不知道，他们会“切片”（tranche）处理。并不是简单的一笔BB评级贷款，而是把它分成AAA、AA等不同等级的债务层，整笔贷款的信用资本占比可能只有20%。而摩根大通做法不同，我们得准备完整资本。我怀疑这种模式能否撑过下一轮衰退。NAIC（全美保险监督官协会）届时可能会说，“天哪，我们当初怎么允许这种资产进到保险公司里？”正因为保险公司是用另一套标准去评估它，这种套利可能在下一轮周期中暴露风险。

And I think people assume that it does. So we are agnostic. And Troy already mentioned it. We want to offer our clients direct loans, syndicated loans. As long as we're underwriting the risk properly and doing it properly, we can do them, too. That's why we have the $50 billion we're willing to do on balance sheet. We could do $100 billion. We can do $200 billion if we thought we're getting very good returns because that's just deploying the capital, which you all said we have excess capital. Even $200 billion, we'll only deploy $20 billion of excess capital. And if we're earning a good return on the loan, and Troy already mentioned this, we can get payments business, custody business, other banking services, maybe markets business, et cetera.

我认为很多人默认这种模式能一直运作下去。我们自己的态度是“中立的”。Troy（管理团队成员）已经提到过，我们愿意为客户提供直接贷款、银团贷款。只要我们对风险评估得当、执行合规，我们也可以做这类贷款。这就是为什么我们愿意在资产负债表上配置500亿美元的私人信贷贷款。如果收益率合适，我们可以做1000亿、甚至2000亿美元。这只是资本配置问题——你们说我们有过剩资本嘛。哪怕做2000亿，我们也只是用了200亿的超额资本。如果贷款收益率好，我们还能获得支付、托管、资本市场等其他业务机会。

So we can compete in all these things. And so I'm not worried about it. They're going to investment grade. And now you're starting to see private -- and by the way, direct lending is all being syndicated out now, too.

所以我们完全可以参与竞争。我对此并不担忧。现在这些资产也越来越向投资级靠拢。而且值得注意的是，现在连“直接贷款”也开始被打包成银团贷款卖出。

So a lot of these bigger deals you see, it's kind of a bridge. They underwrite it, but they immediately syndicate it like we will on some of our co-lending terms and stuff like that. So this will develop over time. The only other view is personally, and I don't like making forecast, stuff like that. I am not a buyer of credit today. I think credit today is a bad risk.

你看到的很多大型交易其实只是过渡性的。他们先承销，然后迅速银团化，就像我们做的联合贷款那样。这是一个逐步发展的市场。补充一点，我个人意见——我不喜欢做预测——但我今天不会去买信用资产。我觉得现在的信用风险很差。

I think the people who haven't been through major downturns are missing the point about what can happen in credit. And then there will be a huge opportunity for this company, too. That's the other thing about downturns. In a downturn, my experience has always been the good companies benefit from a downturn. Not your short-term profits, but your long-term company and you earn your stripes with your clients in a downturn.

我认为那些没有经历过重大信用周期下行的人，低估了信贷市场会出现什么状况。而那时也正是像我们这样的公司抓住巨大机会的时候。衰退是另一种窗口。根据我的经验，真正优秀的公司总能在经济下行中脱颖而出。也许短期利润不是最亮眼的，但从长期看你会变得更强，也能在客户心中赢得信任。

Mikael Grubb Head of Investor Relations

Okay. Any last questions before we break for lunch?

Mikael Grubb，投资者关系主管

好，在我们午休前还有最后一个问题吗？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Yes, Mike, there's one way back. You go ahead.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

有的，Mike，后面那位请说。

Unknown Analyst

The comments on the technology infrastructure transition being mostly done and past its peak were very interesting. Over the next...

不具名分析师

关于技术基础设施转型已大致完成、已过高峰期的评论非常有意思。在接下来几年里……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I don't think it's mostly done, but keep on...

詹姆斯·戴蒙

我不认为“基本完成”这个说法准确，但你继续说。

Unknown Analyst

Okay. Well, then that might be answering the question. So over the next few years, do you see the JPMorgan tech spend becoming more variable with growth? Or is it still a table stakes type characteristic?

不具名分析师

好的，那可能已经回答了我的问题。那么你是否认为未来几年，摩根大通的科技支出会随着业务增长变得更具弹性？还是说这仍然是一个“入场门槛”级别的基础性支出？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It's table stakes. It will be for the rest of eternity. So our tech spend, I think, is, call it, 10% of revenues, which is probably less than most of the companies, by the way. But my experience, I think people make a mistake like somehow you're in one transformation and when you get through it, you're done. I've been doing this for a while, and I've been through transformation after transformation after transformation, and we're learning.

詹姆斯·戴蒙，董事长兼首席执行官

这是“入场门槛”级别的支出，而且将会是永恒的。我们的技术支出大约占收入的10%，顺便说一句，这可能比很多公司都低。但根据我的经验，人们总误以为一次转型完成后就结束了。其实不是。我从业多年，经历了一次又一次的转型，我们也一直在学习。

So when we say we're a lot done, that's moving applications to public or private cloud. You could question where it's better off. Remember, we said compute power be cheap here. Well, not burst compute power we talked about years ago. You got to pay for capacity. That's very different than burst compute power. Where data ghost belongs.

我们所说的“已经完成很多”，主要指的是把应用迁移到公有云或私有云。你可以质疑哪种方式更优。我们以前说过计算能力很便宜，对吧？但那是“突发式计算能力”（burst compute power），而不是长期的容量使用。现在你得为持续的计算容量付费，这和当年完全不同。同时你还得考虑数据到底该存在哪里。

And so the rest of the journey is getting data -- the hardest part is getting data into the form where it could be used properly and where these things belong. So we're doing everything. We're building our own cloud-based data centers. We have our virtual servers. We are using all these other folks. We're going to be quite cautious on Software as a Service, how we do cloud providers.

剩下的旅程，是把数据转化为真正“可用”的格式，这是最困难的部分，同时还要确定数据属于哪个平台、该如何使用。我们现在是在全方位推进：建设自己的云数据中心、部署虚拟服务器、同时也使用外部供应商的服务。对于SaaS（软件即服务）平台以及云服务提供商的选择，我们会非常谨慎。

I don't mind doing anything ourselves, and we have regulations. We've got international laws all around the world, countries writing different rules about what we have to do in the country and outside the country, et cetera. So I think it's a permanent thing. And I think the mindset should be that whenever management teams meet, you're talking about what you need to do in technology writ large to do a good job for your client.

我不介意我们自己做任何事情，同时我们还要面对监管。在世界各地有各种国际法规，各个国家都在制定不同的规定，要求我们在本国或境外履行各种义务。所以我认为这将是一个长期存在的状况。我也认为，管理层每次开会时，都应该始终保持这样的思维方式——我们需要在“技术”层面做什么，才能更好地为客户服务。

It should not be a surprise that you have to use technology to do a better job for clients. And AI is another one. I think AI is real, by the way, but part of that is the mindset. And we talk about AI all the time at every different level. Can I just end, I just want to say a few things. For all the JPMorgan Chase people in the room, what you do for your clients, I get the biggest kick working at all of them.

用技术为客户带来更好体验这件事，绝不应该让人感到意外。人工智能也是其中一个关键。我认为AI是真实而重要的，但其中一部分依然是“心态”问题。我们在各个层级都会谈论AI。最后，我想简单说几句。对于在场的所有摩根大通同仁们，你们为客户所做的一切，是我最骄傲的部分，能与你们共事让我充满成就感。

We all know each other quite well. So inside this company, I wish you could see how people do function and talk and debate in an open way, how we do things. And obviously, I want to thank all the operating committee members. Those unfortunate 11 or 12 that have to deal with me every Monday morning, having read all the things over the weekend that kind of get me irritated. But they help build a great company and they disseminate this culture.

我们彼此都非常了解。在公司内部，我希望你们也能看到我们是如何运作的、我们是如何以开放的方式进行对话与辩论的。我要特别感谢我们的运营委员会成员，那11、12位“倒霉”的人每个星期一都要面对我——我周末读了很多材料，常常因此而情绪激动。但他们帮助打造了这家伟大的公司，也在不断传播这套文化。

We all travel around the world. We meet clients. We deal with each other. We write notes about what we can do better. We take bus trips and road trips. They all go here in Washington, D.C. and see regulators around the world. I want to thank the Board. The Board is here, by the way [indiscernible] thank you for coming. I think it's a great -- this is probably better than actually going to a Board meeting. We probably bore you guys at a Board meeting, but to just see our folks in action.

我们所有人都会去全球各地出差，拜访客户，彼此配合，还会写下自己能做得更好的地方。我们一起坐大巴出行、做路演。他们也会来华盛顿、去世界各地拜访监管机构。我要感谢董事会，今天他们也在场。[听不清] 感谢你们的到来。我认为这比正式的董事会会议还要精彩。我们在董事会上可能让你们觉得无聊，但今天你们能看到我们的团队在实际运作中是什么样子。

And the Board, you should rest assured, talks every time, they are told everything by everybody. All the senior leader people, they all present. I don't think I've ever made a presentation to the Board, at least not in the last 10 or 15 years. Our people do.

请放心，我们的董事会每次都全面参与，所有人都向他们汇报。我们所有的高层管理人员都会亲自向董事会做演示。我自己其实很少向董事会做汇报，至少过去10到15年没有这么做过，都是我们的团队成员在做。

They have an open conversation. They know them personally and professionally, I think it's very important. When they talk about governance rules. I think there's -- there are 2 important governance rules, which the regulators completely missed, by the way, totally absolutely because they're not stuck in the real world, they're stuck in some academic world that the Board knows all the senior people, openly getting feedback and everything all the time on their own.

董事会与管理层之间交流是开放的，他们之间在个人和专业上都非常了解彼此，这是非常重要的。说到治理规则，我认为有两个关键点，而监管者恰恰完全忽视了这两点——因为他们并不身处现实世界，而是停留在某种学术性的世界。第一是董事会必须真正认识所有高层管理人员，并能随时获得开放、真实的反馈。

Not every Board meeting is scripted and they get to see those people at lunch, dinner, taking to golf if they want, et cetera. And the second, which I think is maybe the most important is, since I've been at Bank One, they meet without me, we have an executive session and I leave the room. They meet without me every single meeting to talk about what they're thinking about.

并不是所有的董事会会议都必须照本宣科。他们可以在午餐、晚宴甚至打高尔夫时见到我们的管理者。而我认为最重要的第二点是——从我在Bank One时代起，我们董事会就会定期召开“高管闭门会议”，我会离开房间。他们每次会议都有这样的闭门时间，单独讨论他们的想法。

And the Lead Director, Steve Burke today, but usually calls me up afterwards. David Novak used to give me a handwritten list, what they like more. They would like to know this person better. They're a little worried about this. Can you give us more detail on that? Nothing to report, whatever that is, but I think it allows them to have a very open conversation. So I just want to thank the Board for the effort they make for this company.

现任首席独立董事Steve Burke每次都会会后打电话给我。David Novak过去甚至会手写一张清单，告诉我他们喜欢哪些地方，想多了解哪些人，对某件事有些担忧，希望了解更多信息。有时也会说“没什么要报告的”，但这些交流让董事会能保持非常开放的沟通。所以我真的要感谢董事会为公司付出的努力。

And Daniel Pinto, what a great partner. He's been all these years. Daniel, that world-class investment bank and world-class risk management systems because of Daniel. Thank you, folks, we'll see you at lunch. Thank you.

还有Daniel Pinto，多年来一直是我极佳的合作伙伴。正因为有Daniel，我们才拥有了世界级的投行和风控体系。谢谢各位，我们午餐见。谢谢大家。

Operator

Thank you for attending 2025 JPMorgan Chase Investor Day. We will now conclude the day with lunch. Please make your way out of the presentation room and up to the 13th and 43rd floors. Our event staff will be happy to help direct you.

会议主持人

感谢各位参加2025年摩根大通投资者日活动。现在我们将以午餐环节结束今天的会议。请前往13层和43层，我们的工作人员将协助您前往相应地点。