2025-06-10 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE Conference Transcript

2025-06-10 Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) Presents at Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE Conference Transcript

apital One Financial Corporation (NYSE:COF) Morgan Stanley US Financials, Payments & CRE Conference Call June 10, 2025 2:30 PM ET

Company Participants

Jeff Norris - Senior Vice President of Finance
Richard D. Fairbank - Founder, Chairman, CEO & President

Conference Call Participants

Jeffrey David Adelson - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

All right, everybody. We're going to get started. Before I get started, I'm just going to read some disclosures. For important disclosures, see the Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at morganstanley.com/researchdisclosure. The taking of photographs and use of recording devices is not allowed. If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. So very excited to have Rich Fairbank and Jeff Norris from Capital One join us today.
好的，大家好。我们现在开始。在开始之前，我需要先宣读一些免责声明。有关重要披露信息，请访问摩根士丹利的研究披露网站：morganstanley.com/researchdisclosure。禁止拍照和使用录音设备。如有任何问题，请联系您的摩根士丹利销售代表。今天我们非常高兴地邀请到Capital One的Rich Fairbank和Jeff Norris加入我们。

Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

Let's get it underway. So a big question on everybody's mind, Rich. You just closed the Discover deal 3 weeks ago. Now that you've been able to finally dig in, are you as excited as you were when you first announced the deal about 6 months ago? And maybe you can give us an update on the strategic vision of the combined companies and how that looks as you sit here today.
我们开始吧。Rich，现在大家最关心的问题是：你们在三周前刚完成了对Discover的收购交易。现在你终于可以深入了解这项交易了，你是否仍然像6个月前首次宣布这项交易时那样兴奋？也许你可以跟我们更新一下合并后公司的战略愿景，以及你此时此刻对它的看法。

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

Okay. Thank you, Jeff. Thanks, everybody, for being here in the room and on the webcast today. So yes, we're very excited. It was a long journey to get here. But to get the deal approval and to get it closed as very big moment for Capital One and for our investors. So we're only a few weeks into literally having -- being inside the company. But -- and so like I just want to say that our enthusiasm continues.
好的，谢谢你，Jeff。也感谢今天在场和在线参与的各位。是的，我们非常兴奋。这是一段漫长的旅程。但能够获得批准并完成交易，对于Capital One和我们的投资者而言，都是一个重要时刻。我们进入公司内部运营还只是短短几周，但我可以说，我们的热情依然高涨。

I'm really struck even though all along the way, we've learned more, really where we were at the time of the deal announcement and the vision that we expressed is very much where we are today and the level of enthusiasm in the sense of possibility. And also, by the way, of course, some of the challenges along the way in pulling everything off is very consistent with our expectations and we're excited.
让我非常印象深刻的是，尽管我们一路上学到了很多，但我们在宣布交易时所表达的愿景，今天依然完全一致。我们对未来的可能性依旧充满激情。当然，在推动整个交易的过程中，我们也遇到了一些挑战，但这些挑战完全在我们的预期之中，我们依然感到非常激动。

So just to talk a little bit about the opportunity here. it's interesting, and it's ironic to say what I'm going to say when we're celebrating closing the biggest bank deal since the global financial crisis. But Capital One is really not on a quest to go out and buy lots of banks. The way most banks grow is to buy other banks. We had a period in our life where we bought banks because we wanted to transform the balance sheet of Capital One away from capital markets funding to FDIC insured deposits, but that was -- that phase is over and the Discover acquisition really is a unique opportunity for us to continue and what I would much more describe as an organic growth path for Capital One.
我来讲讲这次交易带来的机会。有趣的是，在我们庆祝自全球金融危机以来最大一宗银行业并购的当口，我却要说一些听起来略带讽刺的话：Capital One其实并没有在寻求收购大量银行。多数银行的增长路径是通过不断并购别的银行。而我们确实也经历过一个阶段，主动收购银行，是为了将Capital One的资产负债表从依赖资本市场融资转型为以FDIC保险存款为主。但那个阶段已经过去了。这次收购Discover对我们而言，是一个独特的机会，是推动Capital One进入下一阶段“有机增长”的跳板。

And the Discover opportunity is so unique because we start with kind of the obvious things, the ability to get a lot more scale in a scale-sensitive business like credit cards, that is certainly very helpful. And on the credit card side, the Discover has a beloved customer franchise. We always from afar knew that and admired that it's very complementary to our Credit Card business. So we're basically going to take what they have done so well, and it will fit very nicely into the broad set of things that I think we do well at Capital One. They have a student business. We've always admired that one. So we're going to just picture we're going to take what they do well and try to very much continue and invest in those things.
Discover的机会之所以独特，首先是因为一些显而易见的因素：例如在信用卡这种对规模非常敏感的业务中，我们能迅速提升规模，这非常有帮助。而在信用卡业务上，Discover拥有一个深受喜爱的客户品牌。我们一直从远处观察并欣赏他们的成就，这与我们的信用卡业务非常互补。因此，我们基本上是要将他们做得非常好的那部分业务，融入到Capital One本身的强项中。他们有一项学生业务，我们一直都很欣赏。所以我们打算延续并投资于他们做得好的这些部分。

There is the obvious ability to generate synergy and to make an integration work better by virtue of the fact that we can move on to our modern technology platforms and so on. So that's going to be a nice opportunity in this deal. This also allows us to continue to get thrust in our building of a national bank bringing the network in, bringing some of Discover's owned banking business in just adds thrust to a very important part of our journey, which is to organically build a national bank, something that's different from what direct banks do and different from branch on the corner banks, which the rest of the banking industry has. So that's very beneficial.
我们显然能够通过此次交易实现协同效应，并借助我们现代化的技术平台等手段，使整合过程更加顺利高效。这是本次交易中的一个良好契机。这次收购还使我们在打造全国性银行的过程中获得了额外推动力，把Discover的网络和部分自营银行业务纳入进来，为我们一项至关重要的发展路线——也就是有机地建设一家全国性银行——注入新动力。这与线上直销银行的模式不同，也不同于传统“街角网点型”的银行模式，这一点对我们而言意义重大。

And finally, the network, bringing a -- being able to have this rare and valuable asset of a network enables several things to happen. First of all, if you think about Capital One, what is our business, we're basically a very large payments company. And it's always been striking to me that as a very large payments company, there's one part of the value chain where we don't really participate. Obviously, that's in the network to be able to vertically integrate allows us to capture the economics of vertical integration in a business where every basis point really, really matters. It allows us to go direct to take our huge customer franchise and go direct to merchants, merchants want to drive more volume. Our customers want better deals. There is a tremendous opportunity to leverage data and merchant relationships, a strategy we've already had independent of this deal but this thing accelerates that in the direct-to-merchant strategy.
最后是网络层面，拥有这样一个稀缺而宝贵的资产会带来多重意义。首先，从本质上看，Capital One其实是一家大型支付公司。而令人一直感到惊讶的是，作为一家大型支付公司，我们在价值链的某一环节中一直没有真正参与——那就是支付网络。有了Discover的网络，我们可以实现垂直整合，从而在这个每一个基点（bps）都极其重要的行业中获得垂直整合所带来的经济效益。它还使我们能够直接连接庞大的客户基础与商户，实现直达商户（direct-to-merchant）的能力。商户希望获得更大交易量，客户希望获得更优价格。这当中蕴藏着巨大的数据与商户关系协同机会，这是我们在此次交易之前就已规划的战略，而这次收购大大加快了该战略的落地。

The network also -- owning a network also very much helps us build some insurance against one of the risks that we face, which is the reliance on other networks and some of the pressures those networks are under it's hard to quantify that benefit to be able to have some insurance and resilience against some of the pressures they're under, and therefore, indirectly, we would be under is also part of this. So at the end of the day, there's a lot to like here. It's a unique acquisition, and I think it will change the future prospects of our company.
此外，拥有一个网络也让我们在面临一个关键风险时有了“保险”——那就是对其他支付网络的依赖以及它们所面临的各种压力。虽然这一点的价值难以量化，但拥有属于我们自己的网络能为我们提供一定程度的保障与弹性，帮助我们抵御这些网络遭受压力时可能对我们产生的间接影响。从总体来看，这是一笔非常值得期待的交易，是一次独特的收购，我相信它将改写我们公司的未来格局。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

Still excited about the deal. Synergies are still on track here. Any sort of early learnings as you look into the hood here? And as it relates to your network aspirations, the debit side makes a lot of sense, but you've also said you want to be more surgical on the credit card and international side. So, what's your strategic approach going to look like on the international side? What's the time line to think about? And how much investment spend? Or how should we be thinking about the spend that's required to do that?
你对这笔交易仍然很兴奋。协同效应方面目前一切如预期推进。在你们开始深入了解Discover的过程中，有没有一些初步的经验总结？另外，关于你们网络战略的愿景：在借记卡方面的整合显然很合理，但你也提到在信用卡和国际业务方面会更加“有选择性地推进”。那么你们在国际市场的战略会是什么样子？时间线如何？我们应如何看待为实现这一目标所需的投资成本？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

Yes. So the great thing is that we are able to have a network, which is a very rare thing for a bank to own. The challenge is that from -- in an industry, the network business is very, very scale-driven business. And of the major networks, Discover -- the major card networks, Discover is, by far, the smallest. So they have done an amazing job in their subscale position building acceptance, virtually universal acceptance domestically, and they've gone a long way internationally where there -- they have really nice baseline acceptance, but what's very clear is there is quite a gap between where they are and where we feel our traveling customers would really expect for us to seriously look at putting the volume of people that do a lot of international travel on a network like this.
是的，令人兴奋的是我们现在拥有一个支付网络——对银行来说这是非常罕见的资产。但挑战也很明显：支付网络是一个极其依赖规模效应的行业。而在几大卡网络中，Discover无疑是最小的一个。尽管如此，他们在规模受限的情况下，依然在美国国内建立起了几乎普遍的商户接受度，并且在国际市场也取得了相当可观的基础接受度。但很显然，他们目前的覆盖水平，与我们的客户——特别是经常出国旅行的用户——所期望的全球覆盖度之间，仍有相当差距。我们还无法大规模把这类用户的交易量导入Discover网络。

So what we announced in our deal is we're going to move our entire debit card business and a small portion of our credit card business, $175 billion in total in effectively moving not very heavy internationally traveling component. And get the flywheel turn and get more scale in there. But when we look at whatever we want to do down the road with the network, all lead to we've got to build more international acceptance. And so that's what we're going to do.
因此，我们在交易中宣布的计划是：将我们全部的借记卡业务以及一小部分信用卡业务迁移至Discover网络，总金额约为1750亿美元。这部分用户群体本身的国际交易量不大，有助于我们先启动飞轮效应，逐步提升网络规模。但无论我们未来想如何拓展这张网络，有一点是明确的：我们必须拓展国际接受度。这正是我们下一步要做的。

Now when I compare it to a lot of Quest we've done over the years at Capital One, sometimes we set out on quest maybe there's a reason others haven't done this. But in this case, the playbook is very clear. Discover already has built from their subscale position, good baseline international acceptance. It's really a combination -- it's really through partnerships, blocking and tackling, boots on the ground, partnerships with merchant acquirers, other international networks. Financial institutions in various countries who might want to issue a Discover card. And finally, big individual merchants themselves.
回顾Capital One多年来发起的各种“探索之旅”，有时候我们会质疑——也许别人之所以没做，是有原因的。但在这次，我们的行动路线图是清晰的。Discover虽然体量不大，但它已经打下了不错的国际接受基础。这靠的是多元组合策略——合作伙伴关系、一线销售团队、与商户收单机构的合作、与其他国际网络的协作、以及愿意发行Discover卡的当地金融机构。最后，还有一些大型商户的直接合作。

We see the playbook. We see what Discover has done. The difference between their approach and our approach is now with more scale and bigger aspirations we're going to really lean into taking that international acceptance, and we're not going to rest until we get to this to a place where "you know it when you see it basis", we are where people are really going to be shopping internationally. It's not a number. I can't tell you exactly what that it is. But that's what we're driving toward.
我们看到了这个行动蓝图，也看到了Discover过去取得的成果。我们与Discover的不同之处在于，我们现在拥有更大的规模和更宏大的目标，我们将全力以赴提升国际接受度，直到我们达到一个“眼见为实”的水准——也就是说，在真正的全球性购物场景中，我们的网络成为现实可见的选择。这个目标不是某个具体数字，我没法给出一个精确的定义，但我们正在朝那个方向努力。

And then as we get there, then we're also going to lean into brand advertising, network brand advertising with a real sort of global feel to it in top of the market feel. And I think that will be the next phase of the transformation of this opportunity.
等我们达到一定国际覆盖水平后，我们还将加大品牌营销力度，特别是面向全球市场的网络品牌宣传。这种宣传将带有“高端、国际化”的感知，这将成为这个转型机会的下一阶段重点。

All along the way, by the way, I want to make clear. Visa and Mastercard will be as far out as we can see very important partners with us and a lot of our customers are doing great things on that network. But we're going to build the capabilities of this one so that over time, we have the chance to move more volume.
在整个过程中，我要特别澄清一点：Visa和Mastercard在可预见的未来依然是我们非常重要的合作伙伴，很多客户在这些网络上的交易表现依然很好。但我们会建设好自己的这张网络，让我们在未来有能力将更多交易量转移到这个平台上。

In terms of the Discover Network itself, we'll see. I would not consider the current Discover network the Autobahn. So no disrespect, but it's not known for premium customers. And I think the tough part of that decision is do you take high interchange transactions off the Visa and Mastercard network and put them on the Discover network at a much lower discount rate.
至于 Discover 自身的网络，我们拭目以待。但我不会把它比作“高速公路”（Autobahn）。不是不尊重他们，但 Discover 网络并不是以高端客户著称的。而这其中最难抉择的地方是：你是否真的愿意把原本在 Visa 或 Mastercard 网络上、能收取高交换费（interchange）的交易，转移到折扣率更低的 Discover 网络上？

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

And as it relates to moving away from the network as it relates to the card issuing side, you talked about wanting to retain Discover as a brand here, but how are you thinking about potentially repositioning that product, that marketing and the go-to-market there? How do we think about the overlap between your existing base?
回到发卡业务这块，虽然你提到希望保留Discover这个品牌，但你们是如何考虑对该品牌的产品、营销和市场策略进行重新定位的？我们该如何看待它与你们现有用户群之间的重叠度？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

So we, for years and years, of course, have studied the national brand power of the major financial institutions in the United States. It's really striking how few banks or basically how few banking institutions really have national brands. What a luxury to be in the position of Capital One that is there, and to be able to bring into the family, another player who is there, Discover has very high awareness. They have customer -- their own customers have a tremendous reference for Discover. And so we have 2 really strong brands, what a luxury.
多年来，我们一直在研究美国主要金融机构的全国性品牌影响力。令人惊讶的是，真正拥有全国性品牌的银行其实非常少。Capital One能拥有这样的品牌力已经是种奢侈，而现在我们又能将另一个同样具有全国影响力的品牌纳入我们的家族——Discover，它的知名度非常高，在客户中拥有极强的品牌口碑。所以现在我们手里有两个非常强的品牌，这是难得的优势。

Now one thing has to obviously change, and that is that Discover is not going to continue to be the brand of a corporation. So -- but it will be a very important brand for us. But what we're going to do is move from a brand of a corporation to something that has 2 aspects to it. It will always as far out as we can see be a network brand. And we're going to be really branding this as the Discover network, not just Discover, but the Discover network so that there's a little bit of separation between maybe a Discover branded card. But anyway, in the meantime, then on the side, Discover will move to be a product brand, picture product brands to Capital One, Venture, how much we've invested in Venture and then Venture X and all of this.
但有一点必须改变，那就是Discover将不再是一个公司的主品牌。尽管如此，它仍将是我们非常重要的品牌。我们将其从“公司品牌”转变为具有两种角色的品牌。第一，Discover将继续作为一个“网络品牌”存在。我们会强化“Discover Network”这个品牌标识，而不仅仅是“Discover”——这样在某种程度上，可以将“Discover网络”与“Discover信用卡”品牌有所区分。与此同时，Discover还将成为我们的一个“产品品牌”。比如说在Capital One体系中，我们有Venture品牌，我们在Venture和Venture X上投入了很多精力。现在我们引入Discover这个极具价值的品牌名，将其打造成类似Venture、Quicksilver、Spark等的又一个主力产品品牌。

So if you picture it is that and sort of how much Capital One is leaned into the building of the Venture brand, we're bringing this amazing brand name Discover, and we will build it as a product brand, and you can think of it as just -- there's Venture, there's Quicksilver kind of thing. There's Spark and then -- and a lot of leaning into this amazing product brand. Along the way, we will continue Discover's flagship product, their 5% rotating categories product, and we will continue things like their student credit card activities and a lot of other good things they do under that brand.
你可以想象一下Capital One是如何长期深耕Venture品牌的——我们将以类似的方式来打造Discover这个卓越品牌，把它作为我们产品线中的一个重要品牌来看待。就像我们有Venture、Quicksilver、Spark，现在我们还将有Discover这个产品品牌。我们也会延续Discover的一些核心产品，比如5%返现轮换类别的主打信用卡，以及学生卡等受欢迎的产品和活动。
Warning
品牌战略有点乱。
Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

And one area you've been able to make strong inroads in recently is premium card, top of the market credit card. How do you do so well compared to the competition, making inroads there? And how does owning a network maybe accelerate that journey from here?
你们最近在高端信用卡领域取得了显著突破，这是非常不容易的。相比竞争对手，你们是如何做到这点的？另外，拥有自己的支付网络是否会加速你们在高端卡市场的发展？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

I love that question because when I think about all the quest of Capital One, including the founding of the company in the first place. There's a common element to all of it. So Jeff, let me just start with the common element, which is really standing back and saying, where is the world going and where do we think winning is in terms of the best industry structure, winning with customers and winning economically. And from the founding idea of the company all the way to today, all of our quests are working backwards from identifying those unique places where we really think winning is. And the good news, bad news is kind of like we say, great news, we figure out where winning is. Well, what's the bad news? Well, it's way over there.
我非常喜欢这个问题，因为当我回顾Capital One所有的“征途”——包括公司最初的创立——其中始终有一个共同的核心。Jeff，让我从这个共同点讲起：那就是，我们始终从更宏观的角度去思考：世界正走向何方？而在行业结构、客户赢得力和经济效益方面，什么才是“胜利”？从公司的创始理念一直到今天，我们所有的战略征途都是从明确那个“我们认为能赢”的独特目标倒推过来的。这个过程中有好消息也有坏消息——好消息是：我们找到了“胜利之地”。坏消息呢？它离我们现在的位置还很远。

And -- but what we've done over -- with Capital One over the years is being very careful about what hills we're going to take the we're going to take them, and then we know it is a long journey to get there, usually measured in more than a decade. In some ways, some of these are lifelong journeys. But we are very careful with the strategy, and then we lean in to do what it takes to get there. The quest to win at the top of the market is no exception to that. We believe, and I bet you every person here who -- many of you are the kind of customers exactly that we're talking about, it's an amazing place to be with incredibly attractive customers, very low losses, very low attrition and a gateway into broader relationships and very good economics.
多年来，在Capital One，我们一直非常慎重地选择“要攻克的高地”，一旦决定攻下，我们就下定决心。而且我们很清楚，这条路通常是以“十年以上”的时间尺度来衡量的。有些征程甚至可能是终身的。但我们始终坚持战略清晰，然后全力以赴。这一次要在高端市场赢得胜利的征途也不例外。我们坚信——我敢说现场很多人就是我们目标客户的代表——这是一个极具吸引力的市场，客户质量高，信用损失率低，流失率也低，同时还是建立更广泛客户关系的重要入口，经济效益也非常可观。

So it's easy to see how you'd want to get there, but want to be there. But how does one get there? What we felt, and we watched a lot of attempts by other banks to over the years to try to get -- to win at the top of the market. And what we saw is it's not about just putting some ads on TV. It's not about cobbling a few vendor-related products together and coming out and declaring great things. It's about systematically building the end-to-end capabilities to truly win in a differentiated way against very, very successful players at the top of the market.
所以，你很容易理解我们为什么想进入那个市场，也愿意长期驻守其中。但问题是——怎么才能进入那个市场？我们观察了很多年来其他银行的尝试，他们都想赢得高端客户。但我们看到的是：这件事绝不是靠在电视上打打广告，也不是把几个供应商的产品拼凑一下，然后宣布“我们也有高端卡”就能做到的。真正要成功，必须系统性地构建端到端的能力，以真正有差异化的方式，在这个已经有很多成功者的高端市场中脱颖而出。

So, including high-end servicing experiences, digital experiences then, of course, the product offerings themselves where we put a lot of work into creating in Capital One's case, really quite differentiated product offerings versus what the competitors have to offer, but it doesn't stop there, then building the travel ecosystem to cause people not to just purchase tickets on your cards, but to beat a path to our travel ecosystem as a gateway into their travel experiences. We reward them for doing that, but that's a whole critical part of the equation. Then there are lounges.
所以这就包括高端的服务体验、数字化体验，当然还有我们在Capital One非常重视的产品本身差异化。我们花了大量精力去打造与竞争对手截然不同的产品。但这还远远不够，我们还在构建一整套“旅行生态系统”，不仅让用户用我们的卡去买票，而是让他们主动进入我们打造的旅行平台，把这作为他们旅行体验的入口。我们会对这种行为进行激励，而这正是我们商业模型中的关键组成部分之一。接下来还有“贵宾休息室”——

Let's pause and talk about lounges for a second. I'm sure virtually everybody here in the room has intimate experiences with lounges. Lounges, it's very clear. They're a very important part of what matters to high-end customers. And so Capital One is on a quest to build out our own lounges and of course, partner with other lounge networks. It also involves building high end. It's not just about products having a great product and lounges being able to provide access to things that people can't normally get into. Obviously, Capital One has the Taylor Swift relationship, for example, but creating unique experiences and access. That's all part of it. And then finally, on top of all of that is building a brand.
我们先暂停一下，聊聊贵宾休息室。我敢说在座的几乎每个人都对贵宾室有过深刻体验。它们毫无疑问是高端客户非常在意的一环。因此，Capital One也踏上了一条自建贵宾休息室的征途，并与其他贵宾室网络合作。我们所构建的“高端体验”，不仅是产品本身和贵宾室，而是要让客户获得平常无法接触的独特体验和专属通道。比如我们与Taylor Swift的合作，就是一个案例——我们希望通过这些打造真正独特的“高端专属体验”。这一切的顶层设计，最终归结于“打造品牌”。

So I favor that only because I don't think there's a shortcut to winning at the top of the market. In 2010, we declared we're going to go to the top of the market. And in 2010, we launched our Venture product. If you look at Capital One's purchase volume, historically, you can almost go bowling on that purchase volume trajectory until 2010. And since then, it's been going straight up over this period of time. But it's a quest that is sustained, involving a lot of investment. But along the way, we validate that it's working. We validate the economics. And what we found is that this path to making sure everything is truly differentiated great experience. We've been rewarded with a lot of success, and we see so much opportunity ahead of us.
我强调这一点，是因为我认为在高端市场上，没有捷径可走。我们在2010年就明确宣布，要进军高端市场。同年我们推出了Venture信用卡产品。你可以看看Capital One过去的刷卡交易总额——在2010年之前，增长曲线几乎像保龄球道一样平缓。但从那以后，它就一路向上。这个征程是持续性的，需要大量投入。但我们一路验证这个战略是有效的，我们验证了经济模型是健康的。最终我们发现，真正打造出差异化的卓越体验，这条道路是可以取得丰厚回报的，而我们看到的未来机会仍非常广阔。
Steve Squeri

That would be a good question for Rich. Look, I think that -- I think it's a really good acquisition for Capital One. I think it gives them a debit network, which I think is really important. I think that's the crown jewel here. I think it gives them more scale. I mean they will become the premium, low FICO lender, if you could put those words together, and they'll have tremendous, tremendous scale. And they'll do it better than anybody else because they do it better than anybody else.
这个问题也许该问 Rich（笑）。但我的看法是，这确实是 Capital One 做的一笔非常好的收购。我认为对他们来说，获得一个借记卡网络（Discover 的网络）非常重要，这才是真正的“皇冠上的明珠”。同时也让他们获得了更大的规模效应。他们将成为“高端低FICO信贷商”——如果你能把“高端”和“低FICO”这两个词放在一起的话（笑）——他们的规模会非常大，而且他们在这个领域的执行能力比任何人都强。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

That's great. I mean I think we could spend the entire time talking about the deal here and the benefits, but maybe let's switch a little bit and focus on the consumer here. So about 1.5 years ago, you were one of the first to call out stabilizing consumer credit trends. More recently, this trend has turned into outright improvement. We've heard more recently of some uncertainty out there and the confidence data, you have tariffs out there. Can you maybe just tie it all together and talk about what you're seeing from the consumer?
太好了。我们其实可以花整场时间来谈这笔交易及其好处，但现在我们稍微转换一下话题，聚焦消费者。大约一年半前，你是最早指出消费者信贷趋势趋稳的人之一。最近，这种趋势已经明显改善。但我们也开始听到一些不确定性，例如消费者信心数据的波动，以及关税问题等。你能否把这些因素整合起来谈谈你们现在所看到的消费者状况？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

So starting with sort of the health of the consumer. I think the -- look, there's noise all over the place. Who knows exactly where tariffs and all these things are going to go. But if you just separate what you read in the news for a minute, just with sort of what we observe in terms of the economy itself, unemployment is in a very strong place job growth wage -- real wage growth. It's in a good place. Consumer debt -- consumer indebtedness, consumer debt burden is very consistent with pre-pandemic and in a good place relative to historical levels. The consumer is in a very strong place.
首先，从消费者的“健康状况”谈起。现在确实有很多噪音，谁也说不准关税等问题会如何发展。但如果我们暂时把新闻放一边，仅仅依据我们对经济本身的观察来看：失业率依然处于非常强劲的状态，就业增长也不错，实际工资也在增长，整体处于良好水平。至于消费者债务——无论是总债务还是负债压力，都与疫情前相当，且相对于历史水平来看处于一个不错的位置。总体而言，消费者目前的状况非常稳健。

We then look at our own metrics, and we flagged for a long time that the period of amazingly low charge-offs was going to be followed by credit normalization that wouldn't just necessarily get back to sort of where it was, but would likely go above that because you have deferred charge-offs from the great government stimulus and everything that at some point, we're going to play out. I think what we're seeing -- what we have seen in the normalization of credit that it is shot kind of past the sort of credit card normal levels in a non-surprising way because of the deferred charge-off effect.
接着我们再来看我们自身的数据。我们很早就指出，之前极低的坏账率不可持续，接下来必然会迎来“信贷正常化”。而这不仅仅是回归到疫情前的常态，甚至可能略高于正常水平，因为疫情期间政府的大规模刺激推迟了很多应有的信贷损失。这些“延迟的坏账”终将浮现。从目前我们观察到的信贷正常化进程来看，确实已经略微超过了传统信用卡坏账的正常区间——但这是意料之中的，归因于前述的“延迟出清效应”。

And -- but since the fourth quarter of last year with respect to Capital One, we have seen our credit metrics, most importantly, headlined by our delinquencies actually on a seasonally adjusted basis, getting steadily better. And we see that in other metrics. It's very clear that there is a general trend of things settling out and what we're probably seeing is some running the course of those delayed charge-offs that were playing out. So we continue to see good things, by the way, despite all the noise out there and the tariff news and everything, even when we look at the most very latest daily data on things like spending data or anything related to sort of the consumer behavior. We just don't see an effect. It's as if our consumer is really reading the same newspapers that we are. And so I'm cautiously optimistic about what I see.
不过，自去年第四季度以来，就Capital One自身的情况而言，我们看到最关键的一项指标——逾期率（按季节调整后）在持续改善。我们在其他指标中也看到了类似趋势。很明显，整体趋势正在趋于稳定。我们正在经历的是那些“延迟坏账”的最终释放过程。总的来说，我们持续看到的是积极迹象。即便当前外部充满噪音，包括关税新闻等等，但即使我们查看最新的每日消费数据、用户行为数据等，也几乎没有看到明显影响。就好像我们的消费者和我们一样，都在阅读那些相同的新闻——但并不被情绪所左右。所以，基于我目前所看到的一切，我是“谨慎乐观”的。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

One other topic on tariffs is auto and used car pricing. So you talked a lot earlier about a pull forward in auto purchases here. The consumers are trying to get ahead of that, but that's also a meaningful benefit to your back book. So how do we balance that against maybe the affordability impacts and the forward look and how that is driving your decision to lean in here?
另一个与关税相关的话题是汽车及二手车价格。你之前提到，消费者在汽车购买上有一些“提前购买”行为，试图避开潜在的涨价，这对你们的存量资产有正面影响。但与此同时，也会带来购车负担能力下降的问题。你们是如何在两者之间权衡的？这些因素又是如何影响你们是否“加码”汽车贷款业务的决策？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

Yes. So Jeff, great question. Let's just pull up a little bit, and I want to just talk about how we have viewed the auto finance business over the last 3 or 4 years. So in -- first of all, in both credit cards and auto lending, basically in all consumer lending, we flagged years ago that while charge-offs, while it's amazing how low charge-offs are in the industry across every product, we really need to be careful that not only will things kind of normalize, but we could really be -- we can all be fooling ourselves with the data that we're looking at, because when we are modeling consumer credit and we're building all these highly sophisticated credit scores, we're looking at consumers who had received this massive injection of government stimulus forbearance on financial products and various things.
是的，Jeff，这是个非常好的问题。我们先稍微拉高一点视角，谈谈Capital One在过去三四年是如何看待汽车金融业务的。首先，不仅是信用卡，汽车贷款以及整体的消费者信贷业务中，我们几年前就已经预警过：虽然行业内的坏账率在过去一段时间确实低得惊人，但我们必须高度警惕，这些数据可能只是暂时现象，甚至可能误导我们。我们在建模消费者信用风险、制定复杂信用评分系统时，其实面对的是一群在过去几年间接受了巨额政府补贴、还款延期和其他金融宽容政策支持的消费者。

And so we declared, we think there's a very significant grade inflation going on, that's going to -- that requires intervention to intervene on our models to take that grade inflation away. That caused Capital One in both credit cards and auto some years ago -- a few years ago to pull back relative to the industry on certain things. We've since then, I think, seen the benefits in Capital One's credit metrics in some ways have sort of turned and maybe moved a little more positive than others. We're seeing the delayed benefits of those choices. If we look at the -- so that's across card and auto.
因此我们当时就提出：我们认为当前的信用评级系统存在严重的“评分膨胀”，需要主动干预模型，剔除这种虚高效应。正因如此，Capital One在几年前就开始在信用卡和汽车贷款业务中相较行业整体更加谨慎地“收缩战线”。从那时到现在，我们也确实看到了这种做法的好处：Capital One的信贷指标在某些方面开始转好，甚至优于其他同业。我们正逐步看到这些早期决策带来的滞后性收益。这一点在信用卡和汽车业务中都有体现。

In the auto business, there are several things that have really gone on that have driven our pulling back and are now informing our leaning in. So in addition to the credit score inflation that caused us to be very cautious a few years ago, the margins were compressing because of interest rates and the difficulty of passing it on through into a lending pricing. And to your specific question, Jeff, vehicle pricing continued to be high. And so we worried about that. We pulled back. Now things are settling out. I'll come back to vehicle prices in a second. The margins in the business have -- inflation is more made its way into the pricing and everything.
在汽车业务方面，有几个因素推动了我们当初的收缩，也正在推动我们现在的“重新进场”。除了刚才提到的信用评分膨胀，使我们数年前保持谨慎外，利率上升也压缩了利润空间，而我们很难将利率完全传导到贷款定价中。此外，回应你刚才的具体问题——车辆价格持续处于高位，这也令我们担忧，于是选择收缩业务。现在情况开始趋于稳定。我等会儿会再讲讲车价。目前行业的利润空间已有改善，通胀已更好地传导到价格体系中。

But now you have this thing that we really got to watch out for, which is inflated vehicle values. How does that impact Capital One. Our existing book of business is benefited by inflated vehicle values because consumers have more equity in their car. And if we need to repossess the car, it has more value. But on the front book of new originations, the -- there are several things to really kind of watch out for. A higher vehicle price especially if we feel it's inflated relative to maybe what it should be. That means the consumer is going to have higher payments. It's already in the context of higher interest rates. And the car has some risk of value decline over time.
但目前我们必须重点关注的，是“车价泡沫”问题。它对Capital One的影响是双面的：对我们已有的存量贷款组合来说，这种高车价反而是利好，因为消费者的车辆净值更高，一旦我们需要回收车辆，回收价值也更大。但对新增贷款业务来说，情况就复杂得多了。首先，如果当前的车价被我们认为是虚高的，那意味着消费者将背负更高的月供，而且还叠加当前较高的利率环境。同时，这辆车未来还有可能出现价值下跌的风险。
Warning
很擅长处于风险边缘的业务，并且有思维上的惯性。
So we incorporate all of these things into our decision-making when you net them all out we who pulled back a few years ago are actually net-net, despite what I just said, are more in leaning in mode. And so that when you see some of the recent numbers that we posted in the auto business, we actually see some nice growth opportunities here. But we'll have to keep an eye out especially on those vehicle values.
因此，我们将所有这些因素都纳入决策权衡。综合下来，我们这家几年前选择收缩业务的公司，现在整体处于“重新加码”的状态。所以你最近看到我们在汽车贷款业务中的数据，确实反映出一些不错的增长机会。当然，前提是我们依然会密切关注车价水平，防止新的泡沫风险。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

Okay. Great. Maybe we can get Jeff involved a little bit here. So stress tests are coming out in a few weeks. Can you talk a little bit more about the submission you've made? Was that pro forma for the deal? And how should we be thinking about the opportunity to return capital? Is your right target capital level 11% CET1? What's the time line, et cetera, to get down there?
好的，很好。我们现在请Jeff谈一下吧。压力测试结果将在几周后公布，你能否多说一些你们这次提交的内容？这份提交是否是基于并购后的合并财务？我们又该如何看待你们未来的资本回馈机会？你们的CET1目标水平还是11%吗？达到目标的时间线又是怎样的？

Jeff Norris
杰夫·诺里斯

Sure. A couple of things. Our most recent CCAR submission was done as of the end of '24. So we were still a stand-alone company. We did provide a scenario as a combined company using publicly available data on Discover. And we'll have to see what the Fed does in terms of processing that. But whatever they're going to do, we'll get our grade, if you will, our answer in June, I think, just like everybody else. When we got regulatory approval for the deal that sort of formally ended the period of time where we needed to seek prior approval for all our capital choices.
当然，有几个点可以说明。我们最近一次CCAR压力测试提交是以2024年底的数据为基础，当时我们仍然是单独实体。但我们也提交了一个合并后公司的场景分析，基于Discover的公开财务数据。至于美联储会如何处理这个情境分析，我们还需拭目以待。不过无论结果如何，我们和其他银行一样，都会在6月收到“成绩单”。当我们获得交易的监管批准后，也意味着之前需要逐笔申请资本配置审批的时期正式结束。

And so the thing that I think needs to get done to unlock a different view of capital is what we're -- is underway right now, we're doing an internal bottoms-up stress test, separate a little bit from the CCAR process to sort of come to our own view kind of on an economic basis where we think our capital targets need to be over the long term, which has traditionally been declared at about 11% CET1.
接下来我们正在做的一件关键工作，就是重构我们对资本结构的全新视角。目前我们正在进行一项内部自下而上的压力测试，这与CCAR流程是相对独立的，目的是从经济基本面的角度出发，重新界定我们长期的资本目标。这个目标，传统上我们是定在11%的CET1水平。

And importantly, over the sort of near to intermediate term, right, while we've been -- had a deal pending, we felt it prudent to operate above that long-term target and have a fairly measured pace of share repurchases as a result of that. And we've been pretty clear that we're probably going to want to have some buffer above that while the integration is still going on, and there's lots of moving pieces.
更重要的是，在过去这段“交易待定”的时期里，我们一直认为维持高于长期目标的资本水平是明智之举，也因此我们的股票回购步伐是相对谨慎且有节制的。我们也很明确指出，在整合过程尚未完成、许多不确定因素仍在变化的情况下，我们可能仍需在CET1目标上方保留一定的“缓冲区”。

However, we're going to sometime in the second half of this year, have completed our internal look. We'll have received our new stress capital buffer from the Fed. And I think when we found ourselves in a position to sort of make our own capital decisions that we see prudent and we've had a lot of capital. Our actions would say that we behave in a way that recognizes the importance of capital return as an important part of how shareholders get paid.
不过，在今年下半年某个时候，我们将完成内部压力测试，也会拿到美联储的新资本缓冲要求（SCB）。到那时，如果我们判断可以自主做出资本配置决策，并且我们手上确实持有充裕的资本，我们的行为会体现出我们重视“资本回馈”这件事——我们始终将它视为回馈股东价值的核心方式之一。

And I think sometime in the next couple of quarters, second half of the year, we'll be finding our way to that position. Now it's not going to be a race to the target manage capital prudently, but I think we'll be in a pretty good capital position.
我认为，在未来几个季度，也就是今年下半年，我们会逐步进入那个“可自由配置资本”的状态。当然，我们不会为了回到11%的目标而一味“冲量”，我们会继续保持审慎的资本管理态度。但总的来说，我们将处于一个非常健康的资本水平。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

Okay. Great. Pretty clear. And Rich, one last question for you. Technology AI, I know this is near and dear to your heart. So how important is AI as a part of the Capital One culture? What use cases of AI have you implemented so far internally? Can you give us any examples of how your advanced tech is giving you an edge in real-time credit monitoring, things like that?
好的，非常清楚。那么Rich，最后一个问题，关于技术和人工智能。我知道这对你来说意义重大。人工智能在Capital One的企业文化中有多重要？你们目前内部已经实施了哪些AI应用场景？能否举些例子，比如在实时信用监控方面，你们的先进技术是如何带来优势的？

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

Well, you know that this is near and dear to my heart. So if we pull up on AI and everybody's talking about AI, it's the range of the age, I think that there's going to be sort of 2 very different impacts of AI in the context of companies in America and banks would follow that same pattern.
是的，你知道这确实是我非常关心的话题。如果我们从宏观层面来看AI，现在几乎人人都在谈AI。它已成为当今时代的主旋律。我认为在美国企业中，AI将带来两种截然不同的影响，银行业也将沿着同样的路径发展。

The first transformation, which is more of a horizontal transformation across all companies and all industries is a transformation in how work is done. And this will mostly be driven by outside vendor products. And it will -- companies will adopt them. The first wave is they will adopt them and just bring them in. The second wave will be taking some of their own internal data and exposing these models to that so that it can be more customized for how work is done there. But this is very clearly a revolution that's going to happen across language related activities driven by sort of chat bots, workplace productivity.
第一类变革是横向的，跨越所有公司和所有行业的变革——也就是工作方式的根本性变革。这一波主要由外部供应商提供的产品推动。企业最初会“开箱即用”，引进这些AI工具；接下来的阶段，则是将企业自身的数据接入AI模型，从而形成更加定制化的工作流。这毫无疑问是一场语言类任务的革命，推动力来自聊天机器人、办公自动化等技术。

For example, at Capital One, we have -- we're just implementing across through all of our sort of workplace tools, external capabilities with generative AI and stuff like that. A very big impact across industries is going to be in software development. Capital One is way down that path of providing leverage for our software developers through these kind of tools. Obviously, things like graphics and video-related things, and there's sort of a whole transformation there. All of that is the transformation in how work is done. It's the more modern companies will be able to get more leverage out of it than those that are not, but this will happen horizontally.
例如在Capital One，我们正在把生成式AI能力嵌入我们所有办公工具中。AI对行业影响最大的领域之一就是软件开发。Capital One已经大力推进，借助这些工具为我们的工程师团队赋能。当然还包括图像、视频等领域，那里也在经历一场彻底的变革。总之，这是关于“工作方式”的变革，更现代的公司将能从中获取更大的杠杆效应，但这种变革是横向的、普遍性的。

There's another huge transformation that will happen in business within industries. But that and ultimately transform how industries work, but that's going to not be driven mostly by external tools, because it so much really gets to the heart of how a company actually works on the inside. So in 2013, Capital One we looked at where the whole world is going. We really watch the collective impact of the cloud, smartphone and the machine learning/AI revolution that was really enabled by the cloud. And we saw that thing I call the triple revolution was transforming everything about where winning was, and so we declared in 2013, our technology transformation.
还有一类重大变革，是行业内部、企业内部的根本性转型。这将最终改变整个行业的运作方式，但它不会主要依赖外部工具来实现，因为它涉及到企业内部最核心的运作方式。早在2013年，Capital One就开始关注全球技术趋势。我们当时看到了云计算、智能手机、以及由云推动的机器学习/AI革命的集合效应，我称之为“三重革命”。它正在改变商业世界中“胜利”之道。于是我们在2013年就宣布了公司的技术转型。
Warning
技术应用能力强的往往是商品化的公司。
And 2 things about that is, one, it was going to be a transformation from the bottom of the tech stack up because it would take a lot of years because we got to rebuild the company and fully modern technology. And what are we working backwards from? We're working backwards from where winning in it is going to be in the world, which is all about big data and machine learning/AI in real time, bringing customized solutions to individuals again in their context. That's like -- that's where the world is going. That's how every industry is being transformed one industry at a time.
我们当时就明确了两件事：第一，这将是一场从技术栈底层开始的彻底重构，花很多年去完成，公司必须彻底实现技术现代化。我们是“反向工程”推进的——从“未来如何赢”出发而倒推。未来的制胜关键在于实时大数据和AI，以上下文为基础，为个人提供定制化解决方案。这就是世界的方向，每一个行业都在逐步朝这个方向变革。

In order to get there, modern external tools are not going to allow companies -- enable companies to get there because it's about building a company from the bottom of the tech stack up and how the company works, the ecosystem works, the talent, the tech talent, the AI talent, the data ecosystem, how every application on which the company sits, how that is built being in the cloud, the whole thing, that is what I call building a modern tech company.
要实现这一目标，靠现成的外部工具是不够的。必须从最底层的技术栈开始构建公司——包括公司运作方式、技术生态、人才体系（特别是技术和AI人才）、数据基础设施、云原生的应用架构等。所有这一切，才是真正意义上的“构建一家现代科技公司”。

On that map, but everything we've been building is working backwards from this real-time AI destination. So along comes AI, we didn't predict generative AI wouldn't necessarily come, but it's just the next evolution in the journey. But -- and just to wrap it up to just give you a window of -- it's not just transforming customer experiences, but also it will transform how a bank or a company works on the inside.
在这个图景之下，我们所有的建设都是以“实时AI为目标”向后推进的。生成式AI的到来虽然我们当初未必预测到，但它只是这一旅程中的下一个演化阶段。而我要强调的是，这不仅仅是在重塑客户体验，更重要的是，它将重塑一家银行或公司的内部运作方式。

Take one example, monitoring. How do we monitor today? You don't hear CEOs coming up talking about, I'm going to tell you all about monitoring. But by the way, monitoring matters massively. How do we monitor? How do companies monitor today? They do it manually with a sample on a batch basis and they use it to detect is there an issue. What's a real-time modern AI-driven solution for monitoring. It's automated. It's full file. It's real time. and it's diagnostic, not only there's an issue, but I'll tell you the root cause.
举个例子——“监控”。你很少听到哪个CEO专门谈论监控，但它其实至关重要。传统的企业监控怎么做？人工抽样，批量分析，仅仅用于检测是否存在问题。而现代AI驱动的实时监控解决方案是什么样？它是自动化的、全量文件级的、实时的，且具有诊断功能——不仅能告诉你出问题了，还能告诉你根本原因是什么。

That's just a little example of how inside a company never to be seen by consumers and not a consumer experience thing inside a company you can transform how a company works. But the only way to get there is build the company with a modern tech stack where everything works backwards from this destination. Sorry, I ran a little over time. I'm so sorry.
这只是一个小例子，说明在企业内部，即便是客户看不到的流程，也可以通过AI彻底变革其运作方式。而唯一能实现这一点的前提，就是构建一个以“AI目标”为反推逻辑的现代技术架构。对不起，我说得有点多了，抱歉。

Jeffrey David Adelson
杰弗里·大卫·阿德尔森

Rich, we could talk all day about AI, but I think we have to end it here. So thank you for joining us. Rich and Jeff. Appreciate it.
Rich，我们确实可以整天聊AI，但现在时间差不多了。感谢你们的参与。谢谢Rich和Jeff。

Richard D. Fairbank
理查德·D·费尔班克

Thank you.
谢谢你们。

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