Stablecoins have a shot at being used in a lot of consumer payments. If they play their cards right.
稳定币有望在大量消费者支付中得到应用——前提是它们走对了每一步。
Investors seem to be betting that stablecoins—digital tokens meant to represent a fixed amount of a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar—could rapidly disrupt how we pay for things.
投资者似乎正在押注，稳定币——即旨在代表固定面额法币（如美元）的数字代币——可能会迅速颠覆我们当前的支付方式。
Following the Senate’s passage of a stablecoin-regulation bill last week, shares of crypto companies such as Circle Internet Group and Coinbase Global surged. Shares of Visa and Mastercard, by contrast, are on track for their worst monthly performance in a couple of years.
随着美国参议院上周通过了一项稳定币监管法案，Circle Internet Group 和 Coinbase Global 等加密公司股价飙升。相比之下，Visa 和 Mastercard 的股价则正面临近年来最差的单月表现。
But before the market runs away with this trade, it is important to understand what drives the consumer-payments business—and just how hard it is to dislodge cards.
但在市场被这种交易热潮带偏之前，关键是要理解是什么驱动了消费者支付业务——以及要撼动银行卡的地位有多么困难。
The key thing about consumer payments is that it isn’t just about technology. There are already many so-called rails, both public and private, on which money can move.
消费者支付的核心不只是技术。如今已有多种所谓的“支付轨道”，包括公共和私人系统，供资金流转使用。
Instead, what keeps cards at the center of payments are their unique economics, and their universality. In places such as the U.S., credit or debit cards are held by virtually every consumer and accepted by almost every merchant. They provide banks and consumers with financial incentives to keep using them. And they have mechanisms to handle security, as well as disputes between buyers and sellers.
真正使银行卡在支付中心地位屹立不倒的是其独特的经济模式和普遍接受度。在美国等地，几乎每位消费者都拥有信用卡或借记卡，几乎每家商户也都接受刷卡支付。银行卡为银行和消费者提供了持续使用的经济激励，同时具备处理安全问题和买卖双方争议的机制。
Of course, merchants are the ones who in a sense pay for all that, by paying fees to accept card payments. So merchants are usually among the first to rush to embrace other ways to pay. The Wall Street Journal has reported that some giant merchants are exploring issuing stablecoins.
当然，从某种意义上说，这一切的成本由商户承担——他们需要支付手续费来接受刷卡。因此，商户通常是最先寻求其他支付方式的一方。《华尔街日报》报道称，一些大型商户正在探索发行稳定币。
Many payment forms have found specific lanes, or operate in the background. But especially in the U.S., cards have remained central to consumer commerce, whether in physical or digital form.
许多支付方式已经找到了自己的特定用途，或者默默运作于后台。但尤其是在美国，无论是在线上还是线下交易中，银行卡始终是消费者商业的核心。
Could this time be different for stablecoins? Stablecoins can use public blockchains to move over the internet, making them widely accessible to adopt in payments. They are especially appealing in countries where people want to operate in U.S. dollars, but can’t get U.S. dollar bank accounts.
这次对稳定币来说会有所不同吗？稳定币可以通过公共区块链在互联网上流通，使其在支付中更容易被广泛采用。在那些人们希望使用美元但又无法开设美元银行账户的国家，稳定币尤其具有吸引力。
However, card networks are already adapting. Both Visa and Mastercard enable partners to offer cards whose payments can be funded by cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins.
然而，卡组织网络也正在适应这一趋势。Visa 和 Mastercard 均已支持其合作伙伴发行可通过加密货币（包括稳定币）资金支持的银行卡。
Merchants can then collect the payments the way they would with any card transaction. No new setup is required. These network operators are also offering ways for merchants and others to themselves be paid in stablecoins. That includes USDC, which is issued by Circle.
商户则可以像处理普通刷卡交易那样收款，无需额外配置。这些网络运营商还为商户等提供了以稳定币收款的方式，其中包括由 Circle 发行的 USDC。
Then there is the incentive question of why a consumer would want to transact directly in stablecoins over cards. The latter often pay out generous rewards to holders.
接下来是激励机制的问题——为什么消费者会愿意用稳定币而不是银行卡来直接支付？毕竟，银行卡通常会为持卡人提供丰厚的奖励。
Stablecoins have a potential mechanism to do something similar. Each coin has a reserve fund that aims to ensure it can be redeemed for its fixed fiat currency value. Those funds generate interest revenue. That creates a kitty that can fund rewards to people who pay with those tokens, as with discounts or points.
稳定币也有可能建立类似的激励机制。每枚稳定币背后都有一笔储备资金，用于确保其可按固定法币价值赎回。这些资金会产生利息收入，从而形成一个资金池，可用于为使用这些代币支付的用户提供奖励，例如折扣或积分。
But that reserve income goes to the coin issuers, not merchants who accept the payments. Merchants would need to negotiate with those players, whether they are banks or others, to get a share of the economics.
但这部分储备利息收益归稳定币发行方所有，而非接受支付的商户。商户必须与这些发行方（不论是银行还是其他机构）协商，才能分享这部分收益。
If merchants pursue their own coins, then they could in theory fully fund their own rewards programs. It would be similar to how some retailers today, such as Starbucks, hold customers’ preloaded dollars in accounts. They can also earn interest on that cash.
如果商户选择发行自己的稳定币，理论上他们就可以完全自主地为自己的奖励计划提供资金支持。这与一些零售商当前的做法相似，例如星巴克持有客户预充值资金，并可从这些资金中赚取利息。
But this pathway might only be available to the biggest merchants. And, to make customers more willing to hold money in those accounts, merchants might want to issue cards linked to their wallets. Then customers can use those funds to pay at other sellers.
不过，这条道路或许仅适用于规模最大的商户。而为了让消费者更愿意将资金存放在他们的账户中，商户可能还需要发行与其钱包关联的银行卡，以便客户可在其他商家处使用这些资金进行消费。
All this only applies to people paying with existing funds. What about credit? That requires a lender, and typically a card network to facilitate the transaction. Coinbase, for example, has announced it is launching a rewards credit card via the American Express network.
以上讨论仅限于使用现有资金进行支付的情况。那么信用支付又该如何？这就需要放贷方，并通常还需借助卡组织网络来促成交易。例如，Coinbase 已宣布将通过美国运通网络推出一款带有奖励机制的信用卡。
Stablecoins will have many uses in payments, particularly outside the U.S., and in behind-the-scenes transactions. But the fastest way into most people’s wallets will still be through a card.
稳定币在支付领域将有广泛用途，尤其是在美国之外以及后台交易中。但若要快速打入大多数人的钱包，最快的路径仍然是通过银行卡。