Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (NYSE:AJG) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 31, 2025 5:30 PM ET
Company Participants
Douglas K. Howell - Corporate VP & CFO
J. Patrick Gallagher - Chairman & CEO
Conference Call Participants
Andrew E. Andersen - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Andrew Scott Kligerman - TD Cowen, Research Division
Charles Gregory Peters - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
David Kenneth Motemaden - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Elyse Beth Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Katie Sakys - Unidentified Company
Mark Douglas Hughes - Truist Securities, Inc., Research Division
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher & Company's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. \[Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
下午好，欢迎参加 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 2025 年第二季度财报电话会议。\[操作员指示] 今天的电话会议正在录音。如果您有任何异议，现在可以断线。
Some of the comments made during this conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward- looking statements within the meaning of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and Risk Factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliations of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website.
本次电话会议中的部分评论，包括对问题的回答，可能构成证券法意义下的前瞻性声明。公司没有义务更新本次电话会议中提供的信息或前瞻性声明。这些前瞻性声明涉及风险和不确定性，可能导致实际结果与预期有重大差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多详情，请参阅公司最近的 10-K、10-Q 和 8-K 文件中关于前瞻性声明和风险因素的部分。此外，有关本次电话会议讨论的非 GAAP 指标的调节以及相关信息，请参阅收益公告及公司网站投资者关系部分的其他材料。
It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.
现在很高兴为大家介绍 Arthur J. Gallagher & Company 的董事长兼首席执行官 J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr.。Gallagher 先生，请开始。
J. Patrick Gallagher
Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our second quarter '25 earnings call. On the call with me today is Doug Howell, our CFO; and other members of the management team. We had a great second quarter. For our combined Brokerage and Risk Management segments, we posted 16% growth in revenue, 5.4% organic growth, reported net earnings margin of 17.3%, adjusted EBITDAC margin of 34.5%, up 307 basis points year-over-year, adjusted EBITDAC growth of 26%, our 21st consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. GAAP earnings per share of \$2.11 and adjusted earnings per share of \$2.95, another strong quarter by the team.
谢谢大家。下午好，感谢各位参加我们 2025 年第二季度财报电话会议。今天与我一同参加电话会议的有我们的首席财务官 Doug Howell 以及管理团队的其他成员。我们度过了一个非常出色的第二季度。经纪和风险管理两个板块合计实现了 16% 的收入增长，5.4% 的有机增长，报告的净利润率为 17.3%，调整后 EBITDAC 利润率为 34.5%，同比上升 307 个基点，调整后 EBITDAC 增长 26%，这已是我们连续第 21 个季度实现两位数增长。GAAP 每股收益为 2.11 美元，调整后每股收益为 2.95 美元，团队再次交出了一份亮眼的季度成绩单。
Moving to results on a segment basis, starting with the Brokerage segment. Reported revenue growth was 17%. Organic growth was 5.3%, in line with our expectations despite headwinds from CAT property renewal premium changes in June. Adjusted EBITDAC margin expanded 334 basis points to 36.4%, with underlying margin up around 60 basis points. Doug will break down the margin expansion further in his comments.
接下来按业务板块来看，首先是经纪板块。报告的收入增长为 17%，有机增长为 5.3%，尽管 6 月份受到了灾害财产续保保费变动的逆风影响，但整体符合我们的预期。调整后 EBITDAC 利润率扩大了 334 个基点，达到 36.4%，其中基础利润率上升约 60 个基点。Doug 稍后将在发言中对利润率扩张做进一步拆解。
Let me provide you with some insights behind our Brokerage segment organic. Within our retail operations, we delivered 4% organic overall, a reflection of the heavier weighting to property business this quarter. U.S. organic was 5%, with P/C a bit below and Benefits a bit above that level. Outside the U.S., our international operations, primarily in the U.K. and Canada, Australia and New Zealand were collectively around 3%, with U.K. a bit above and Canada a bit below 3%, shifting to our reinsurance, wholesale and specialty businesses. In total organic of nearly 7%. This includes 5% organic from Gallagher Re and more than 7% organic from our wholesale and specialty businesses. So we continue to deliver organic growth across retail, wholesale and reinsurance.
让我为大家提供一些关于经纪板块有机增长的洞见。在我们的零售业务中，本季度整体实现了 4% 的有机增长，反映了本季度财产业务占比较重。美国市场的有机增长为 5%，其中财产与意外险略低于该水平，福利业务略高于该水平。在美国以外，我们的国际业务主要集中在英国、加拿大、澳大利亚和新西兰，整体约为 3%，其中英国略高于 3%，加拿大略低于 3%。转向再保险、批发和专业业务，整体有机增长接近 7%。其中 Gallagher Re 实现了 5% 的有机增长，而我们的批发和专业业务实现了超过 7% 的有机增长。因此，我们在零售、批发和再保险领域持续实现有机增长。
Next, let me provide some thoughts on the P/C insurance pricing environment, starting with the primary insurance market. Overall, the global P/C insurance market remains rational, and we expect that to continue. Carriers today have insights into what products and geographies are generating appropriate returns and areas that need to be re-underwritten or repriced to improve profitability. Accordingly, we are seeing more carrier competition across property and continued caution within casualty lines.
接下来，我来谈谈 P/C（财产与意外险）定价环境，先从初级保险市场开始。总体而言，全球 P/C 保险市场依然理性，我们预计这种情况将会持续。如今，保险公司已经能够洞察哪些产品和地区能够产生合理回报，以及哪些领域需要重新承保或重新定价以改善盈利能力。因此，我们看到在财产险领域的竞争更为激烈，而在意外险方面则仍保持谨慎。
Breaking down second quarter global renewal premium changes, which includes both rate and exposure, we saw the following by product line, property down 7%. That's a couple of points below what we were seeing at the time of our early June IR Day. Casualty lines, up 8% overall, including general liability up 4%; commercial auto up 7% and umbrella up 11%. Package up 5%, D\&O, down 3%, workers' comp up about 1 point and personal lines up 7%. Breaking down renewal premiums by client size, we continue to see significant differences. For clients generating less than \$100,000 of revenue, renewal premiums were up 3%. For clients generating more than \$100,000, renewal premiums were down 2%. As we discussed with you in June, second quarter renewal premium changes are more heavily influenced by property coverages than the other quarters. Excluding property, both small to midsized accounts and larger accounts are seeing global renewal premium increases in the 4% to 6% range. Now good accounts will get some premium relief from that. However, accounts with poor loss experience are likely to see greater increases.
具体来看，第二季度全球续保保费的变化（包括费率和风险敞口）如下：财产险下降 7%，比我们在 6 月初投资者日时看到的又低了几个百分点。意外险整体上涨 8%，其中一般责任险上涨 4%，商用汽车险上涨 7%，伞式险上涨 11%；综合险上涨 5%；董事及高管责任险（D\&O）下降 3%；工伤险上涨约 1 个百分点；个人险上涨 7%。按客户规模划分，差异依然明显：收入低于 10 万美元的客户，续保保费上涨 3%；收入超过 10 万美元的客户，续保保费下降 2%。正如我们在 6 月讨论的那样，第二季度续保保费变化更多受到财产险的影响。剔除财产险后，无论是中小型账户还是大型账户，全球续保保费普遍上涨 4% 至 6%。其中优质账户将获得一定的保费减免，而损失经验较差的账户可能面临更大的上涨。
Today's environment is actually ideal for us to show our expertise, product knowledge and data-driven capabilities. Our talented team can help clients navigate market complexities while finding the best coverage, moving to the reinsurance market now. Our June and July renewals reflected broadly similar conditions as earlier in the year. Property covers continued to favor reinsurance buyers, particularly on CAT-exposed risks and increased limits being purchased are somewhat offsetting rate decreases. Casualty reinsurance dynamics reflected continued concerns over prior year loss development and rising loss trends from inflation and the litigation environment. Thus, pricing was flat to modestly higher. In a growing market with opportunities to differentiate clients' underwriting abilities and risk profiles, Gallagher Re will continue to perform very well.
当前的市场环境实际上非常适合我们展现专业能力、产品知识和数据驱动的优势。我们优秀的团队能够帮助客户应对复杂的市场，同时找到最佳的保险覆盖。转向再保险市场，6 月和 7 月的续保情况与年初基本一致。财产险保障依然有利于再保险买方，尤其是在涉及巨灾风险的情况下，且购买限额的提升在一定程度上抵消了费率下降的影响。意外险再保险则继续受到前期损失发展、通胀及诉讼环境带来的损失趋势上升的影响，因此定价保持持平或小幅上涨。在这个不断增长、可以通过区分客户的承保能力和风险状况来形成差异化的市场中，Gallagher Re 将继续表现优异。
Moving to some comments on our customers' business activity. Our second quarter and July revenue indications from audits, endorsements and cancellations continue to be a nice positive. So we see solid client business activity in our data and no signs of a broad, meaningful global economic downturn nor any changes from the prospect of tariffs. We will continue to watch these carefully for any early signs of changes in our clients' business activity.
再来看客户的业务活动情况。我们第二季度和 7 月从审计、批单和退保中获得的收入指标依然表现积极。因此，从数据上看，我们的客户业务活动稳健，并没有看到广泛且显著的全球经济下滑迹象，也没有看到关税前景带来的变化。我们将继续密切关注，以便尽早发现客户业务活动的变化信号。
Within the U.S., we are seeing continued job growth, just not quite at the robust levels we saw during 2024. Additionally, trends from health insurance carriers continue to indicate ongoing increases in medical utilization and treatment costs. Our benefit professionals are well positioned to guide employers through these many challenges. So with a great first half of the books, we now see full year '25 Brokerage segment organic in the 6.5% to 7.5% range. Doug will unpack our organic outlook by quarter in his comments.
在美国，我们依然看到就业增长，只是没有 2024 年时那样强劲。此外，健康保险公司反映出的趋势表明，医疗使用率和治疗成本仍在持续上升。我们的福利专业团队在帮助雇主应对这些挑战方面具备良好优势。随着上半年表现出色，我们预计 2025 年全年经纪板块的有机增长将在 6.5% 至 7.5% 之间。Doug 将在发言中按季度进一步拆解有机增长展望。
Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are very well positioned. Today, our niche expertise, extensive data and analytics offerings and global resources put us in a great place competitively.
无论市场和经济条件如何，我相信我们都处于非常有利的位置。我们在细分领域的专业能力、丰富的数据和分析服务以及全球资源，都使我们在竞争中处于强势地位。
Moving on to our Risk Management segment, Gallagher Bassett. Second quarter revenue growth was 9%, including organic of 6.2%. We saw solid new business revenue in the second quarter as the new business sold that we spoke about last quarter began to generate revenue. Combined with our fantastic client retention, we believe we will see full year '25 organic in that 6% to 8% range. Second quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 21%, a bit better than our June expectations. And looking ahead, we still see full year margin around 20.5%, and that would be another great year for Gallagher Bassett.
接下来是风险管理板块 Gallagher Bassett。第二季度收入增长为 9%，其中有机增长 6.2%。我们在第二季度看到了可观的新业务收入，这是我们上季度提到的新业务开始产生的贡献。结合出色的客户留存率，我们预计 2025 年全年有机增长将在 6% 至 8% 之间。第二季度调整后 EBITDAC 利润率为 21%，略好于我们 6 月份的预期。展望未来，我们仍预计全年利润率约为 20.5%，这将是 Gallagher Bassett 的又一个优秀年份。
Shifting to comments about mergers and acquisitions, starting with Assured Partners. Since our early June IR day, we've had -- we've made terrific progress and now believe we will be in a position to complete this transaction here in the third quarter. As for other M\&A activity during the second quarter, we completed 9 new mergers, representing around \$290 million of estimated annualized revenue. For those new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome to the Gallagher family of professionals.
接下来谈谈并购，先从 Assured Partners 开始。自从我们 6 月初的投资者日以来，我们取得了显著进展，现在相信将在第三季度完成这一交易。至于第二季度的其他并购活动，我们完成了 9 起新并购，预计年化收入约为 2.9 亿美元。对于这些新加入的合作伙伴，我谨向他们致以热烈的欢迎，欢迎他们成为 Gallagher 专业团队的一员。
Looking at our pipeline, we have around 40 term sheets signed or being prepared, representing around \$500 million of annualized revenue. Good firms always have a choice, and it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher.
从我们的并购储备来看，目前大约有 40 份意向书已签署或正在准备中，预计年化收入约为 5 亿美元。优秀的公司总是有选择，如果他们选择与 Gallagher 合作，那将非常美好。
I'll conclude with some comments about our Bedrock Gallagher culture. During the second quarter, I had the pleasure of spending time with thousands of colleagues across the organization, including more than 500 college students from the 60th class of the Gallagher internship program. This rigorous 2-month sales internship program is an essential investment in our future. And from many -- my many interactions with this talented group. I am more than confident that our sales culture will remain strong for years to come, and that is the Gallagher way. Okay. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?
最后，我想谈谈我们的基石文化——Gallagher 文化。在第二季度，我很高兴能与公司内成千上万的同事共度时光，其中包括来自 Gallagher 实习项目第 60 届的 500 多名大学生。这个为期两个月的高强度销售实习项目，是我们对未来的重要投资。通过与这批才华横溢的年轻人的交流，我更加确信我们的销售文化将在未来多年保持强劲，这就是 Gallagher 的方式。好的，我就先说到这里，把时间交给 Doug。Doug？
Douglas K. Howell
Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll walk you through our earnings release and provide some comments on organic growth and margins by segment, including how we are seeing the rest of the year shape up. Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document that we post on our IR website and walk you through our typical modeling helpers. And then I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M\&A and capital management.
谢谢你，Pat，大家好。今天我将带大家回顾我们的财报，并针对各业务板块的有机增长和利润率做一些评论，包括我们对全年走势的展望。接下来，我会转到我们在投资者关系网站上发布的 CFO 评论文件，带大家看看我们常用的建模参考。最后，我将以一贯的现金、并购和资本管理方面的评论结束我的准备发言。
All right. Let's flip to Page 3 of the earnings release. Brokerage segment organic growth of 5.3% was right in line with our June IR Day guidance. With our first quarter organic at 9.5%, year-to-date, we are at 7.6%. Looking forward to the second half of '25, we see third and fourth quarter organic each around 5% plus, which will put full year organic in the 6.5% to 7.5% range. Let me give you 4 call-outs on that.
好的，我们翻到财报第 3 页。经纪板块的有机增长为 5.3%，完全符合我们 6 月投资者日的指引。第一季度的有机增长为 9.5%，年初至今为 7.6%。展望 2025 年下半年，我们预计第三、第四季度的有机增长都在 5% 左右或略高，从而推动全年有机增长达到 6.5% 至 7.5% 的区间。对此我有四点补充说明。
First, recall from our first quarter earnings call and our June IR Day, our 9.5% first quarter organic growth had some positive timing that is now flipping to a headwind in the second half. Second, as we discuss every quarter, organic can be dependent on those large and lumpy live cases. Given the current interest rate outlook uncertainty, clients may accelerate or even delay when to buy policies. Third is property rates further decreases or on the other hand, a large CAT here in wind season, causing a quick shift higher would also influence our organic and fourth, our casualty rate. We are seeing some lines perhaps bottoming out and other lines continuing to steadily march higher.
第一，正如我们在第一季度财报电话会和 6 月投资者日上提到的，9.5% 的第一季度有机增长中包含了一些积极的时点因素，而这些因素在下半年将会转变为逆风。第二，正如我们每季度都强调的，有机增长在一定程度上取决于一些大型且不均匀分布的现场项目。在当前利率前景不确定的情况下，客户可能会加快或推迟购买保单的时间。第三，如果财产险费率进一步下降，或者相反，风季发生大型灾害导致费率迅速上升，这都会影响我们的有机增长。第四是意外险费率，我们看到某些险种可能已触底，而其他险种则在稳步上涨。
Looking to Page 5 of the earnings release to the Brokerage segment adjusted EBITDAC table. Second quarter adjusted EBITDAC margin was 36.4%, up 334 basis points year-over-year and above our June IR Day expectations. Let me walk you through our typical bridge from last year. First, if you pull out last year's 2024 second quarter earnings release, you'd see we reported back then adjusted EBITDAC margin of 33.1%. Now adjust that using current FX rates, which for this quarter is next to nothing. So just assume adjusted EBITDAC margin levelized for FX would remain at 33.1%. Then organic growth of 5.3% gave us about 60 basis points of expansion this quarter. The roll-in impact of M\&A used about 40 basis points. The impact of lower rates on fiduciary interest income used about 30 basis points. And then interest income on the cash we're holding for Assured Partners added about 340 basis points of margin this quarter.
翻到财报第 5 页，经纪板块调整后 EBITDAC 表格。第二季度调整后 EBITDAC 利润率为 36.4%，同比上升 334 个基点，高于我们 6 月投资者日的预期。让我带大家看一下我们的常规利润桥。首先，如果翻回去年 2024 年第二季度财报，当时调整后 EBITDAC 利润率为 33.1%。现在用当前汇率调整，本季度的影响几乎可以忽略不计，所以假设调整后 EBITDAC 利润率在汇率平滑后仍为 33.1%。然后，本季度 5.3% 的有机增长带来约 60 个基点的扩张；并购的滚入效应消耗约 40 个基点；受托利息收入的利率下降消耗约 30 个基点；而我们为 Assured Partners 持有现金产生的利息收入则增加了约 340 个基点的利润率。
Follow that bridge, and it will get you to second quarter 2025 margin of 36.4%. That's great discipline by the team. As for the second half of the year, we don't see anything that causes us to change how we view underlying margin expansion potential. We call it organic greater than 4%. We should see some underlying margin expansion, then say at 6.5% organic, perhaps around 70 basis points of expansion and at 7.5% organic, around 90 basis points of expansion. I would say the same thing looking out towards '26. We have a long list that will continue to benefit our productivity and quality, including a more stable labor environment, increased returns from our technology spends on client-facing sales and service tools, our proven early AI successes, further centralization of back-office services, all on top of an industrial strength core operating system that can handle significantly more revenue with marginal costs.
按照这个利润桥，你就会得到 2025 年第二季度 36.4% 的利润率。这体现了团队的高度执行力。至于下半年，我们没有看到任何迹象会改变我们对基础利润率扩张潜力的看法。我们称之为“有机增长超过 4%”，就应该看到一些利润率扩张。例如在 6.5% 的有机增长水平时，可能带来约 70 个基点的扩张；在 7.5% 的水平时，约 90 个基点。我对 2026 年的展望也是一样。我们有一长串能够继续提升生产力和质量的因素，包括更稳定的劳动力环境、客户销售和服务工具的技术投入带来更高回报、我们早期 AI 成功案例的验证、后台服务的进一步集中化，而这一切都建立在一个工业级的核心操作系统之上，该系统能够以极低的边际成本承载显著更多的收入。
So in a sound bite, in any organic environment, we still see significant opportunities to get better, faster and more productive and thereby provide higher quality offerings to our clients at lower cost. Sticking on Page 5. Risk Management segment organic at 6.2%. As Pat said, that's a bit better than our expectations due to strong new business revenues from contracts that incepted in Q2. And for the year, we continue to see organic in that 6% to 8% range. Adjusted EBITDAC margin of 21% was better than our June IR Day expectations. And looking forward, we still see full year margins closer to 20.5%.
简而言之，在任何有机增长环境下，我们依然看到巨大的机会去变得更好、更快、更高效，从而以更低的成本为客户提供更高质量的服务。继续看第 5 页，风险管理板块有机增长为 6.2%。正如 Pat 所说，这略好于我们的预期，原因是第二季度开始生效的合同带来了强劲的新业务收入。全年我们仍预计有机增长将在 6% 至 8% 区间。第二季度调整后 EBITDAC 利润率为 21%，优于我们 6 月投资者日的预期。展望未来，我们仍预计全年利润率接近 20.5%。
Turning now to Page 7 of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. Compared to our June IR day expectations, the adjusted interest in banking line and the clean energy line, both were very close to our expectations. The adjusted acquisition cost line related to our typical tuck-in acquisitions came in a penny better and the adjusted corporate line was \$0.04 below. That's solely due to a larger noncash unrealized FX remeasurement loss because of the dollar weakened in June. That has already mostly reversed here in July. So it just shows the noise that this can create in our corporate segment results.
接下来翻到财报第 7 页，公司板块简表。与我们 6 月投资者日的预期相比，调整后的利息与银行业务项目以及清洁能源项目都与预期非常接近。与常规小型并购相关的调整后收购成本项目比预期好一美分，而调整后的公司项目则比预期差四美分。这完全是由于 6 月美元走弱导致的更大规模非现金未实现外汇重估损失所致。这一影响在 7 月份已经大部分逆转。这说明这类波动可能在公司板块业绩中制造噪音。
So let's move now from the earnings release to the CFO commentary document that we posted on our website. As a general statement, please read the headers and the footers on each page carefully on how numbers in this document include or exclude the impact of Assured Partners. Flipping to Page 3 and our typical modeling helpers, most of the second quarter '25 actual numbers were close to what we provided back in June. One call out here, a small flip from amortization to depreciation that cost us about a penny of adjusted EPS. That's simply because we updated opening balance sheet numbers related to our recent acquisition.
那么，现在我们从财报转到我们网站上发布的 CFO 评论文件。总体上，请大家仔细阅读每一页的页眉和页脚，了解文中的数字是否包含 Assured Partners 的影响。翻到第 3 页和我们常用的建模参考，大部分 2025 年第二季度的实际数据与我们 6 月提供的数字接近。这里需要说明一点：由于我们更新了最近收购相关的期初资产负债表数据，导致从摊销转为折旧的小幅变动，使调整后每股收益减少了约一美分。
Finally, on this page, please look at the FX disclosures for the Brokerage and Risk Management segments as you refine your models. Turning now to Page 4 and the corporate segment outlook for the second half of '25. There's not much change here from what we provided 8 weeks ago. So you can flip to Page 5 to our tax credit carryovers. As of June 30, about \$685 million, which we get over the next few years. And recall that those -- that benefit flows through our cash flow statement, not through the P\&L.
最后，请在这一页查看经纪和风险管理板块的外汇披露，以便在完善模型时参考。接下来翻到第 4 页，关于 2025 年下半年公司板块的展望，与 8 周前我们提供的情况相比并没有太大变化。所以可以直接翻到第 5 页，关于税收抵免结转。截至 6 月 30 日，大约为 6.85 亿美元，我们将在未来几年逐步获得。请记住，这些抵免的收益体现在现金流量表中，而不是利润表中。
Also, no change to the value of these credits from the recent U.S. OB3 tax bill. So that's good news. And while I'm at it, there isn't anything concerning to us in the other provisions of the new bill either. So that's good news, too.
此外，最近美国的 OB3 税法案并没有改变这些抵免的价值，这是一条好消息。同时，该法案中的其他条款对我们而言也没有任何令人担忧的内容，这同样是好消息。
Turning to Page 6, the investment income table. We've updated our forecast to reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. These numbers assume two future 25 basis point rate cuts, one in September and one in December. You also see that the interest income associated with Assured Partners financing runs through the third quarter in this table. If we close before that, obviously, that number would come down. Shifting down the page is the rollover revenue table. Only a small change from our June CFO commentary, and that was due to a refinement in the seasonality of revenues from our second quarter '25 acquisitions, which are more heavily weighted towards first quarter versus second, third and fourth. And then looking forward, you'll see in the pinkish columns to the right, they included estimated revenues for brokerage M\&A closed through yesterday. So there's a standard reminder, you'll need to make a pick for future M\&A. And also, you'll need to make a pick for when AP might close. The purple section on that page should help with that.
翻到第 6 页，投资收益表。我们更新了预测，以反映当前的汇率和受托现金余额的变化。这些数据假设未来将有两次各 25 个基点的降息，分别在 9 月和 12 月。你们还可以看到，与 Assured Partners 融资相关的利息收入在该表格中一直延续到第三季度。如果交易在那之前完成，显然这个数字会下降。再往下是续转收入表，与我们 6 月 CFO 评论相比仅有小幅调整，主要是由于我们对 2025 年第二季度收购带来的收入季节性进行了修正，这些收入更多集中在第一季度，而不是二、三、四季度。展望未来，你们会在右边淡粉色的列中看到，已包含截至昨天完成的经纪并购的预计收入。所以这是一个标准提醒：你们需要自己对未来的并购做出假设，同时也要对 Assured Partners 的完成时间做出假设。该页紫色部分提供了一些帮助。
All right. Moving to cash, capital management and M\&A funding. Available cash on hand at June 30 was about \$14 billion and no outstanding borrowings on our line of credit. With our strong second half cash flows, we are in a great position to fund another \$2 billion of M\&A here in '25 and is looking like we would have about \$5 billion in '26 before using any stock, all while maintaining a solid investment-grade debt rating. Think about that for a minute, another \$7 billion over the next 17 months. That should allow us to add another \$600 million to \$700 million of EBITDAC at a really nice arbitrage. And I'm bullish about this because for 20 years,
好的，现在来看现金、资本管理和并购融资。截至 6 月 30 日，我们的可用现金约为 140 亿美元，且在信贷额度下没有未偿还的借款。凭借下半年强劲的现金流，我们有能力在 2025 年再为 20 亿美元的并购提供资金；在 2026 年则可能有 50 亿美元的空间，而这还不需要动用任何股票，同时仍能保持稳健的投资级债务评级。想一想，在未来 17 个月内还能动用 70 亿美元资金。这将使我们能够以非常理想的套利方式再增加 6 亿至 7 亿美元的 EBITDAC。我对这一点保持乐观，因为在过去 20 年里，
we've invested in building the chassis that can support billions and billions more of revenue, provide world-class service and enable thousands and thousands of talented producers to win at the point of sale. So our M\&A strategy has a fantastic outlook.
我们一直在投资建设一个能够承载数十亿美元以上收入的底层架构，能够提供世界级的服务，并使成千上万的优秀销售人员在销售环节赢得竞争。因此，我们的并购战略前景非常光明。
So a great quarter and first half in the books, and we have an exciting future with AP, organic growth, margin expansion, M\&A opportunities, all driven by a talented team with a bedrock culture. Those are my comments. Back to you, Pat.
总而言之，我们度过了一个非常出色的季度和上半年，并且在 AP、内生增长、利润率扩张以及并购机遇的推动下，未来令人振奋，而这一切都由一支才华横溢、以基石文化为核心的团队驱动。我的评论就到这里。Pat，把时间交还给你。
J. Patrick Gallagher
Thanks, Doug. Dale, do you want to open up for questions, please?
谢谢你，Doug。Dale，现在请你开放提问环节好吗？
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first questions come from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
[操作员指示] 我们的第一个问题来自 Wells Fargo 的 Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Beth Greenspan
My first question, what was the date that you guys sent the information, the HSR information to the DOJ and responded to that request? And did you get a timing agreement there? Or is it just a 30-day clock that starts once you gave them all the information?
我的第一个问题是，你们向司法部提交 HSR 信息并对该请求作出回应的日期是什么时候？你们是否与他们达成了时间协议？还是说在你们提供所有信息之后，就只启动了 30 天的倒计时？
J. Patrick Gallagher
Well, Elyse, we aren't going to give out dates that we did this or did that. We are done responding to their second request, and we do continue to engage with them and respond to certain inquiries. And so the review is ongoing. So I'm not going to get into any more real details about timing. But our evaluation of where we stand, given the give and take back and forth and given the relationship is that we'll be in a position to close the transaction during the third quarter. We're very, very excited about it.
Elyse，我们不会公开说明具体提交材料或回应的日期。我们已经完成了对他们第二次请求的回复，并且仍在与他们保持沟通、回应一些询问。审查还在进行中，所以我不会深入讨论具体的时间细节。但根据我们目前的评估，结合双方的互动和关系，我们认为将在第三季度完成交易。对此我们感到非常兴奋。
Elyse Beth Greenspan
And then my second question, you guys -- I'm just trying to get a sense with the 5% brokerage outlook for the back half, I guess, are you assuming a continuation of just pricing trends that we saw in Q2 and just the slowdown in property in June? And then if I recall from the June IR Day, you were talking about some benefits business that was getting pushed to the back half. Is that still the expectation? And then what quarter are you expecting that might come on?
我的第二个问题是，你们对下半年 5% 的经纪业务展望——是否假设二季度的定价趋势会延续，以及 6 月份财产险的放缓情况？另外，如果我没记错的话，在 6 月的投资者日上，你们提到过一些福利业务会推迟到下半年。这一预期是否依然有效？你们预计这些业务会在哪个季度体现？
Douglas K. Howell
All right. So yes, so let me just reiterate what I said is that we see the next 2 quarters in the 5-plus range, too, not to be -- not to quibble over picking at one single number. And yes, I think that there's some risk and opportunity with the life business. We'll see how that comes out. Obviously, sometimes those policies incept depending on interest rates, with what's happening with the Fed holding tight right now, your guess might be as good as mine about whether they accelerate to close or whether they try to wait until a little longer, maybe into next year to actually incept those policies.
好的，是的，我再重申一下，我们预计接下来的两个季度也会在 5% 以上的区间，而不是拘泥于某一个具体数字。关于寿险业务，确实既有风险也有机会，我们还需要观察结果。显然，这类保单的生效时间有时取决于利率情况。鉴于美联储目前维持紧缩，你的推测和我的一样，有些客户可能会加快成交，也可能会延迟到更晚，甚至推到明年才真正生效。
So there is some dependency on those large and lumpy life cases. Other things is those picks are based on what we're seeing in the property environment right now, what we're seeing in the casualty environment right now. And again, some of that's influenced a little bit by the timing that we had coming out of the first quarter with such a great first quarter. There's a little headwind to that in the third and the fourth quarters. Overall, though, our business, we're excited about it, and we think that we could be in that 6.5% and 7.5% range for the year.
所以确实部分依赖于那些规模大且不均衡的寿险项目。除此之外，预测还基于我们目前在财产险和意外险环境中看到的情况。而且，再次强调，这也受到一点时点影响，因为第一季度非常强劲，导致第三和第四季度会面临一点逆风。总体而言，我们对业务前景感到兴奋，并认为全年有望达到 6.5% 至 7.5% 的区间。
J. Patrick Gallagher
And we are heavier in the second quarter on property than we are the next two.
而且我们在第二季度的财产险权重比接下来的两个季度更高。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Kligerman with TD Cowen.
下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Andrew Kligerman。
Andrew Scott Kligerman
On the property, I just heard an E&S writer say that we made the same point as you about June seeing a big drop-off, maybe 20% to 30%. Is that baked into your guidance for the balance of the year, something along the magnitude of 20% to 30% property lines? Or is that just...
关于财产险，我刚听到一位 E&S 承保人说到 6 月份出现了大幅下滑，可能在 20% 到 30% 左右，他的观点和你们之前说的一致。请问这是否已经反映在你们对全年余下时间的指引中？也就是说，你们是否假设财产险的降幅会在 20% 到 30% 之间？还是说……
J. Patrick Gallagher
That's a bad number. That's a bad number. Whoever gave you that number, it's not what we're seeing. Absolutely not close. So no, we didn't take any 20% or 30% decrease.
这个数字不对，完全不对。无论是谁给你的这个数字，都与我们看到的情况完全不符，差得远了。所以，不，我们没有遇到 20% 或 30% 的下降。
Douglas K. Howell
Property in that 7% range, a little bit plus or minus on that in June. Property is a pretty heavy quarter during -- we say, in June. And so I think it's -- the other thing, too, is you got to understand -- you got to always remember the difference between our revenues that could include exposure changes also. So as property rates might come off, when you talk pure rate, that might be one thing, but our customers are smart. When rates are dropping, they buy more cover.
财产险在 6 月份大约下降 7%，上下浮动一点。6 月通常是财产险的一个高峰季度。所以我认为你需要理解——要始终记住，我们的收入数据中还可能包含风险敞口的变化。所以，虽然财产险费率下降是一方面，但我们的客户很聪明，当费率下降时，他们会购买更多保障。
So when we give you a number, when we see property down 7%, that would include rates going down, but exposures or the consumption of that -- of those risks is going up.
因此，当我们给你一个财产险下降 7% 的数字时，这个数字既包括了费率下降的影响，同时也包含了风险敞口或风险消费的增加。
Andrew Scott Kligerman
Got it. And the number I gave you might have been off because it might have been weighted more towards E&S and large risk.
明白了。我之前提的数字可能不准确，因为它可能更多是基于 E&S 和大型风险业务的权重。
J. Patrick Gallagher
That's a bad number. It's a bad number on large accounts, it's a bad number on middle accounts, it's a bad number on small accounts.
那个数字不对。无论是大型客户、中型客户还是小型客户，这个数字都不对。
Andrew Scott Kligerman
Good to hear. And then maybe just shifting to your pipeline. I mean it sounds really exciting. You've done 9 mergers already. No disruption from Assured Partners. You can just kind of keep going at your regular pace.
明白了，很高兴听到这个消息。接下来我想问一下你们的并购储备，听起来真的很令人兴奋。你们已经完成了 9 起并购，而 Assured Partners 的交易也没有造成任何干扰。是不是意味着你们可以继续保持正常节奏推进？
J. Patrick Gallagher
I'll tell you what, I have to agree, if I was an outsider, I'd be pretty impressed. Our machine, and we're in just a great position is driven by literally hundreds of people in the field around the world, talking to folks that they admire and working with people who have been hired by folks to sell their business. And we're on that short list of virtually anybody that wants to take a look at possibly selling their enterprise, large or small. Our tuck-in acquisition business purchases are not all $50 million, $100 million. There's lots of 2s, 5s, 10s. These are family businesses, and they're not PE roll-ups and they're looking for a home for their people.
我得说，如果我是一个外部观察者，我也会印象深刻。我们的运作机制，以及我们所处的优越位置，完全依赖于全球数以百计的一线人员，他们与自己尊重的人沟通，接触那些正考虑出售业务的人。几乎所有考虑出售企业（无论大小）的人，都会把我们列入候选名单。我们的并购补充项目并不全是 5,000 万美元、1 亿美元的交易，其中很多是 200 万、500 万、1,000 万美元的交易。这些往往是家族企业，不是私募基金的打包收购，他们希望为自己的员工找到一个归宿。
And I couldn't be proud of the fact that there were still at the high end of that checklist. They want to know is Gallagher still the kind of company I'd like to join. And you're exactly right to pick up on the fact that 9 closures at the very time that they know we're doing the biggest transaction in our history. So it is a testament to...
让我感到无比自豪的是，我们依然处在他们清单的前列。他们想知道 Gallagher 是否仍是一家值得加入的公司。而你完全正确地注意到，在大家都知道我们正进行公司历史上最大的一笔交易时，我们依然完成了 9 起并购。这本身就是一个有力的证明……
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Charlie Lederer with BMO Capital Markets.
下一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Charlie Lederer。
Unidentified Analyst
On the RPC numbers that you gave, Pat, would you be able to -- I don't think I missed or I may have missed it, but would you be able to give an all-in RPC number? And I guess, what would that look like with 3Q and 4Q's mix instead of 2Q?
Pat，你之前给出的 RPC（续保保费变化）数据，能否给出一个总体的 RPC 数字？另外，如果考虑第三季度和第四季度的业务结构，而不是第二季度的，你们预计这个数字会是什么样？
J. Patrick Gallagher
Well, it'd be about 4%.
大约在 4% 左右。
Douglas K. Howell
Yes. I think you're picking up on something, Charles. There seems to be a heavy focus on property. Property for us in the course of a year, might be 35% of our business casualty, and we're seeing a steady march of casualty rates going forward. Recollection says that casualty is up about 8% and the mix and the weight of the business. So I think overall, you're seeing a market that's still mid-single digits going up in terms of rates.
是的，Charles，我觉得你提到了一个关键点。大家似乎过于关注财产险。对我们来说，一年下来财产险可能占业务的 35%，而意外险的比重也很大，并且我们看到意外险费率正持续上涨。据我回忆，意外险费率上涨大约 8%，再结合业务结构和权重，我认为整体市场费率仍然维持在中个位数的上涨水平。
So you're right to sniff out the difference between those 2 and -- but the combined number in that mid-single digits number is still a spot for -- in the second part of your question, we see that happening for the rest of the year. We are just in the beginning of wind season. So let's see what happens here. Over the next 3 months, that could change the market. We're at $80 billion of CAT losses, the biggest first half of the year ever in the history of our business. It's only been 5 months ago that the tragic California fires were there. I think carriers still have to digest that and how that's impacting the reserves still. There's still development to come out of that. So between the casualty rates still marching higher, property is -- you're at the plate taking a swing at it. We'll see what happens for the rest of the year.
所以你注意到财产险和意外险之间的差异是对的。但总体的合并数字仍在中个位数的水平。至于你问题的后半部分，我们预计这种情况会持续到今年余下的时间。现在才刚进入风季，未来三个月的情况可能会改变市场。今年上半年巨灾损失已达 800 亿美元，是我们行业历史上最大的一次。就在 5 个月前，加州发生了悲剧性的火灾，我认为保险公司仍需要消化这一事件对准备金的影响，未来可能还会有发展。因此，意外险费率仍在上涨，而财产险就像是站上打击区，要看看接下来会发生什么。
Unidentified Analyst
Got it. And I guess, the 4.7% in base organic, are you expecting acceleration off of that in the back half of the year? Or I guess, are you expecting supplemental and contingents to kind of drive organic a little, yes.
明白了。那么对于 4.7% 的基础有机增长，你们是否预计下半年会加速？还是说你们更期待补充和或有收入能推动有机增长？
Douglas K. Howell
I kind of look at base and supplementals together, and not pushing like 4.9% or 5%. So right in there, what we're seeing going forward, the contingents. I think the carriers are doing well. We do well in the environments where carriers do well. So I think that it's nice to see that base and supplemental together is still around 5%. Supplementals, maybe topping that up a little bit. So I think you're reading through that right. But we're holding in there. Our fee accounts are doing well, too. So it wouldn't surprise me that's the same number in the next 3 quarters or next 2 quarters also.
我更倾向于将基础和补充一起看，大约在 4.9% 到 5% 之间。这也是我们未来看到的情况。至于或有收入，我认为保险公司表现良好，而在保险公司表现好的环境下，我们同样表现不错。所以很高兴看到基础和补充加起来依然在 5% 左右，补充收入可能会再稍微提升一些。我认为你的理解是对的。总体而言，我们保持得很好。我们的费用型账户表现也不错，所以我并不惊讶接下来的两个或三个季度数字依然维持在这个水平。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.
下一个问题来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。
Charles Gregory Peters
So I think, Doug, as you're going through in rapid fire formation, your comments, you alluded to the opportunities that you have to expand margins in all type of organic revenue environments. And I think it's particularly interesting as we think about next year. So could you go back and sort of unpack some of those comments and talk about the drivers, not for this year, but what you're seeing for '26 and beyond?
Doug，我注意到你在快速点评中提到，无论在何种有机收入环境下，你们都有机会扩大利润率。我觉得这对明年尤其值得关注。你能否再详细解释一下这些评论，并谈谈驱动因素，不仅限于今年，而是你们对 2026 年及之后的展望？
Douglas K. Howell
Well, listen, here's thing. How would I promise this, and I'll give you a little bit more detail in September when we do our IR Day on some of those exact points. But in a nutshell, there is a culture of change inside of Gallagher that every day, people are waking up and getting after making ourselves better. We know that we've got to get more productive every day. We've got some terrific AI projects that are underway that are starting to show early success. We now have 15,000 associates that we can use that are in our centers of excellence that provide good value to us. They are the early founders of standardization, centralization that allows us to deploy AI into that information.
好的，我先这么说。等到 9 月的投资者日，我会针对这些具体问题提供更多细节。但简单总结一下，Gallagher 内部有一种变革文化，我们每天都在努力让自己变得更好。我们清楚必须不断提升生产效率。目前我们有一些非常出色的 AI 项目正在推进，并且已经开始显现早期成果。我们现在有 15,000 名员工在卓越中心工作，为我们创造了很大价值。他们是标准化、集中化的早期推动者，使我们能够将 AI 部署到这些信息和流程中。
The technologies we're developing now have kind of toggled from hardening our environment against cyber and against just uptime and run times to now really enabling the business. The presentation layers that we're providing are producers that show customers like you bought this and [indiscernible] to adviser because it's a list of -- that keeps going on and on and on. And every time you think the list is going to get smaller of opportunities to get better, it just grows. And so we've got a runway for years of how we can make ourselves better. And the acquisition pipeline feeds that because we're putting more revenue over a cost structure that doesn't change dramatically.
我们现在开发的技术，已经从单纯强化网络安全、保障系统稳定性，转向真正赋能业务。我们提供的展示层，让客户清楚看到他们购买的内容，以及顾问能提供的增值服务，功能清单还在不断增加。每次你以为改进机会的清单会变短，它反而变得更长。因此，我们有多年可持续改进的跑道。并购储备也推动了这一点，因为我们在相对稳定的成本结构之上不断增加收入。
Charles Gregory Peters
All right. I'll wait until September for more detail. I guess I want to go back to the Assured Partners transaction. I think the last time we were talking about or you were talking about, I should say, you mentioned or highlighted that you had to suspend, I think, 11 of the 13 work streams on the integration process? And with the timing -- with a little bit more visibility on the timing, have you kick-started those work streams or processes for integration back up?
好的，我会等到 9 月听你更多的细节。接下来我想问关于 Assured Partners 的交易。上次我们谈到时，你提到在整合过程中，你们不得不暂停大约 13 个工作流中的 11 个？现在随着时间表更明朗，你们是否已经重新启动了这些工作流或整合流程？
I guess ultimately, what I'm getting here is we previously mapped out some revenue and margin assumptions for the acquisition and just wondering if because of this delay, it's going to cause a delay in the recognition of some of the benefits as we start to integrate that operation at the end of this year and next year?
我的核心问题是，我们之前针对这笔收购设定了一些收入和利润假设。现在由于延期，是否会导致在今年年底和明年开始整合时，部分收益的实现被推迟？
J. Patrick Gallagher
I think, Greg, it is fair to say we had to suspend some actual work streams that were things like what producers would work with what other producers on accounts, what branches would be sharing once you're there. But we've had a lot of time, and we have been allowed at the senior levels to continue to have dialogue to work on the plan here. And so it's been -- we followed the rules very closely. We've had a longer period of time to review this, and we've been allowed to do more integration planning, just not getting into some of the details of some of these work streams.
Greg，我认为可以这样说，我们确实暂停了一些具体的工作流，比如哪些销售人员会和哪些人一起合作账户、哪些分支机构会在整合后共享业务。但我们已经有了充分的时间，并且在高层层面上被允许继续对话和规划。因此，我们严格遵守规定，利用更长的时间来审视计划，并且被允许进行更多整合规划，只是没有涉及这些工作流的部分细节。
So I'd say that we're really ready to hit the ground running. I think that if you recall, when we announced this acquisition, we're very proud of the fact that we said in its first year, it would be accretive. We still maintain that. I think we're going to see a bump in opportunities to sell stuff in geographies and places that we have not been represented. Remember, only 94% of these acquisitions done by AP, we didn't have a chance at. So these are fresh new bodies that are coming on our team. It seems like they're very excited, and we're looking forward to getting going.
所以我认为我们已经做好了立即启动的准备。如果你还记得，当我们宣布这笔收购时，我们非常自豪地表示它将在第一年实现增厚。我们现在依然坚持这一点。我认为我们会看到在过去未覆盖的地区和市场里，出现更多销售机会。要记住，AP 所做的这些收购中有 94% 我们之前没有机会参与。所以这些全新的团队成员正在加入我们，他们看起来也非常兴奋，我们也期待尽快开始。
Douglas K. Howell
Yes. And Greg, just to clarify, I think you had your numbers backwards. I mean there are 12 or 13 work streams, and we really had to spend 2 of them or 3 of them or something like that. So I think if you spoke backwards on that. But I got to say, like Pat said, is that we've used this time to get ready when things happen. If we're delayed 7 months in closing, 8 months in closing, maybe we lost 2 or 3 months in that journey, to be honest, so we didn't lose the entire time. So we're still bullish on the opportunity to put 2 great companies together and get a lot of benefit out of it.
是的，Greg，为了澄清一下，我觉得你把数字弄反了。实际上有 12 到 13 个工作流，而我们真正暂停的只有 2 到 3 个左右。所以你可能说反了。但正如 Pat 所说的，我们利用这段时间做好准备。如果交易延迟 7 个月或 8 个月，那么坦率地讲，我们可能只在这个过程中损失了 2 到 3 个月的时间，而不是整个周期。所以我们依然对把两家优秀公司整合在一起、并从中获得巨大收益充满信心。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Jing Lee with KBW.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Jing Lee。
Unidentified Analyst
My first question is on pricing. You mentioned that casualty, some lines bottoming out and some lines getting higher. Just curious, any specific lines that you want to call out? Just kind of want to know the mix that drives it. And casualty line pricing is like 8% in 2Q, which is in line with 1Q, look pretty steady. Do you expect casualty rates going to be flat or bumpy when it increases from here?
我的第一个问题是关于定价的。你们提到意外险中，有些险种已触底，有些险种仍在上涨。能否具体点名几个险种？我想了解一下背后的结构因素。另外，意外险在第二季度的定价上涨大约是 8%，和第一季度一致，看起来比较稳定。你们是否预计意外险费率接下来会保持平稳上涨，还是会出现波动？
J. Patrick Gallagher
All right. Let me try to answer a little bit of that right off of my script, Jing. I think we're seeing property down 7%, casualty overall up 8%. We did unpack that. General liability is up about 4%. Commercial auto continues to be up 7% and umbrella up 11%, that tells you a lot about what's going on in the underlying business of underwriters. Package, which is packaged together with other property type covers, is up 5%. But D&O, interestingly enough, is down 3%. Workers' comp is up about 1 point and overall personal lines are up 7%.
好的，Jing，我就直接按稿子来解答一下。我们看到财产险下降 7%，意外险整体上涨 8%。具体拆分来看：一般责任险上涨约 4%；商用车险继续上涨 7%；伞式险上涨 11%，这充分说明了承保业务的现状。综合险（与其他财产类保障打包）上涨 5%；而有意思的是，董事及高管责任险（D&O）下降 3%；工伤险上涨约 1 个百分点；整体个人险上涨 7%。
I think that's about as unpacked as we could get for you by line today, and I think that's pretty good data. What I'm seeing in the casualty market is a continuing caution as we talked about under our reinsurance report. Carriers from a reinsurance perspective are still concerned about prior years. And when they look at that and look forward, they're not willing to throw the numbers out to some additional credits that caused that problem from the past to get bigger. And I think if you add that to Doug's comments, I mean, we're one storm away from the market turning in property. And that -- so you're in a really interesting time in the market. These carriers are very good at knowing where they are or aren't making money, and they're very determined to try to keep their revenue coming in above loss costs. So it's a good time for us to be talking to clients about all this because they're confused, to be honest with you.
我觉得这已经是今天能给出的最详细的险种拆分了，数据也相当有参考价值。在意外险市场，我们看到的情况依然是谨慎。正如我们在再保险报告中提到的，从再保险角度看，保险公司仍对往年损失感到担忧。展望未来，他们不愿意因为放宽承保条件而让过去的问题进一步扩大。如果结合 Doug 的评论来看，其实财产险市场只需要一场风暴，行情就可能发生逆转。所以，现在确实是一个非常有趣的市场时点。这些保险公司非常清楚哪些地方赚钱，哪些地方不赚钱，并且下定决心要确保收入高于损失成本。老实说，这也是我们与客户沟通的好时机，因为他们的确感到困惑。
Unidentified Analyst
Got it. My second question is on the E&S market. One of your competitors kind of mentioned, seeing some early signs of business coming back from E&S to the mid market? Are you seeing any similar trend? Or what are you expecting for here?
明白了。我的第二个问题是关于 E&S 市场。你们的一位竞争对手提到，看到部分业务有迹象从 E&S 回流到中端市场。你们是否也看到类似趋势？或者你们对这一点有什么预期？
J. Patrick Gallagher
Yes. I would tell you this. First of all, every retail broker in the world has game plan #1 in a market like this, and that's to reinstitute a direct play to take the wholesale commission away from the wholesaler. Now that's a bold statement. There are wholesalers that have helped you write accounts, you're going to work together. So it's not -- you can't say every single account. But that is clearly a strategy that a retailer will use to not have to split commissions.
是的，我可以这样说。首先，在这种市场环境下，每一家零售经纪人的第一套方案就是直接尝试把批发佣金拿回来，不再通过批发商。当然，这个说法比较直白。确实有些批发商在帮助你承保账户时，你还是会合作的。所以不能说适用于所有账户。但这确实是零售商常用的策略之一，以避免佣金分成。
Douglas K. Howell
And we're actually seeing in our submissions. Our submission count is actually up. So when it comes to opportunities, we're still having a lot of opportunities to grow. That's obviously in our wholesale and E&S market.
事实上，我们在投保提交量上也看到增长。所以就机会而言，我们依然有大量增长空间，特别是在批发和 E&S 市场。
J. Patrick Gallagher
Now also, there's a differentiation between programs and MGA-type lines of coverage where you've got something that's in an underwriting environment that's excess and surplus. Those are growing nicely right now. They're continuing to grow. So it is a mixed bag. But as you saw in our results, our excess surplus and specialty business was up 7% at a very strong quarter. So this is not like all the business is returning to the primaries. It's a logical balance.
此外，还要区分项目型业务和类似 MGA（管理型总承保代理）类型的险种，这些险种处在 E&S 的承保环境中，目前增长势头良好，并且在持续增长。所以这是一个混合的局面。但正如你们在我们的业绩中看到的，我们的 E&S 和专业业务在本季度增长了 7%，表现非常强劲。因此，并不是所有业务都在回流到主承保市场，而是一个合理的平衡状态。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Kenneth Motemaden
I just wanted to confirm that in the outlook for a 5% plus organic growth in brokerage in the back half of the year that you guys are assuming a continued 7% decline in property RPC? And then maybe if you could help us think through some of the sensitivity around that if pricing came in maybe a little bit better or if it came in maybe a little bit worse, what sort of impact that might have to organic in the second half?
我想确认一下，你们对下半年经纪业务 5% 以上有机增长的展望，是否假设财产险 RPC（续保保费变化）继续下降 7%？另外，能否帮我们分析一下，如果定价稍好一些或者稍差一些，这对下半年有机增长会产生怎样的影响？
Douglas K. Howell
Right. So yes, on the first part of the question, we're assuming property pricing that happened in June continuing through the year. But again, we're not as heavily weighted to property in the second half of the year. Second thing, I think the sensitivity is, I think that we lose 40 basis points of organic every time there's a 2% drop in rates without any changes, including increases in exposure that would come along with that. So maybe down a little bit more because of the changes in rates, but then because of increased consumption and people opting back in. I think the net impact is about 40 basis points or 2% of drop on net-net property.
是的，关于第一个问题，我们假设 6 月份的财产险定价趋势会持续全年。不过，下半年我们在财产险上的权重没有那么大。其次，关于敏感性，我认为每当费率下降 2%，我们大约会损失 40 个基点的有机增长，这是假设没有其他变化的情况下，包括风险敞口随之上升的情况。所以，可能费率下降会导致有机增长再低一些，但由于客户增加保障和重新购买，部分会被抵消。我认为净影响大约是财产险费率下降 2% 对应 40 个基点的有机增长损失。
David Kenneth Motemaden
Got it. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just following up on that. I think you said in June, -- is that different than the down 7%? Or is that more than the down 7%? Because I think you said 5 in April and May, and then it was -- it sounds like June was definitely worse than 7%, ended up being 7% for the quarter.
明白了，非常有帮助。我再跟进一下。你们之前提到 6 月的数据——那和下降 7% 有区别吗？还是比下降 7% 更严重？因为我记得你们说过 4 月和 5 月大约下降 5%，所以听起来 6 月肯定比 7% 更差，最后整个季度才是 7%。
Douglas K. Howell
Yes, maybe June was 8% or 9%, something like that by the time it averages. But July is -- we're not seeing that in July.
是的，6 月可能在 8% 到 9% 之间，算下来平均就是这样。但在 7 月，我们没有看到这种情况。
David Kenneth Motemaden
Got it. Okay. But you're assuming like the 8%, 9% in the outlook going forward?
明白了。那么你们在展望中是否假设未来的情况会继续按照 8% 到 9% 来走？
Douglas K. Howell
I think there's some moderation as you get halfway binding property business in the middle of the storm season can have -- is not going to get quite the cuts that you get it in earlier. So let's see what happens during the storm season here. But I think the carriers have -- they've got a target of what they want to write, and I think they may have -- they're going to hit that harder in the May and June time frame because you get 7 months of the unearned premium.
我认为接下来会有所缓和。当你在风季中期签订财产险合同时，降幅不会像早些时候那么大。我们还需要看看风季的进展。但我认为保险公司有明确的承保目标，他们可能在 5 月和 6 月更积极一些，因为那样他们能获得 7 个月的未赚保费。
David Kenneth Motemaden
Right. No, that's fair. And then for my second question, and I know it's early, but just wondering just given all the dynamics within the different lines, I think you had said up 4% to 6% ex property and then obviously, everything that's going on in property. Any sort of early thoughts in terms of how you're thinking about organic in brokerage in 2026?
好的，没问题。我的第二个问题——我知道现在还早，但考虑到不同险种的动态，你们提到剔除财产险后是上涨 4% 到 6%，而财产险又有很多变动。想问一下，你们对 2026 年经纪业务的有机增长有没有一些初步想法？
Douglas K. Howell
Yes. We're working through that right now. I think that our reinsurance business is still killing it. I think there's still opportunities there. Our benefit business in the first quarter was very good. So on an overall year in and year out basis, maybe where we close this year, I think we got a shot at that next year. Wherever we end up this year, we probably could repeat that next year.
是的，我们现在正在进行这方面的测算。我认为我们的再保险业务仍表现非常强劲，仍有机会。我们的福利业务在第一季度也表现很好。所以从整体上看，按年度来比较，可能我们今年收官的水平，也有望在明年重复。换句话说，我们今年的最终表现，大概率就是我们明年能够实现的水平。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.
下一个问题来自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。
Mark Douglas Hughes
Pat, if I heard you properly, I think you said workers' comp was up one -- and if I'm looking at it right, it was up 5% last quarter. I know you said job growth may not be as robust and maybe there's a little less wage inflation, but anything else impacting that number?
Pat，如果我没听错的话，你刚才说工伤险上涨了 1 个百分点——而如果我看得没错，上个季度是上涨 5%。我知道你提到就业增长可能没那么强劲，工资通胀也有所减缓，但除此之外，还有什么因素影响了这个数字吗？
J. Patrick Gallagher
I'm not seeing it, Mark. I think comp is surprising to me. The last 10 years, it's been pretty flattish. So I wouldn't read too much into that. We can unpack it every single quarter, but it's in a pretty tight range of not much movement. This is not an indication of it falling through the floor and the second -- in the previous quarter was not an indication of a start to run up.
我没有看到其他因素，Mark。我觉得工伤险挺让我惊讶的。在过去 10 年，它基本保持平稳。所以我不会过度解读。我们可以每个季度拆分来看，但整体上都在一个比较窄的区间里波动，并没有太大变化。这既不是一个即将崩跌的信号，上个季度也不是上涨趋势的开始。
Mark Douglas Hughes
The benefits organic, I think you said it was maybe a little bit faster than the overall U.S. retail. Is that right? Do you have a specific number on that?
关于福利业务的有机增长，我记得你说它的速度可能比美国整体零售业务快一些，对吗？你们有没有具体数字？
Douglas K. Howell
We didn't provide that, but it might be 2 points better, maybe 1 point, 1.5 points better.
我们没有提供具体数据，但大概高出 2 个百分点，或者 1 到 1.5 个百分点。
Operator
Our next questions come from the line of Andrew Andersen with Jefferies.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Andrew Andersen。
Andrew E. Andersen
I think I heard you say 5% organic in reinsurance, and that's relative to some really strong quarters in recent history. Can you maybe break down just any impact on pricing on that organic number? And would also be interested in hearing maybe any benefit you saw from ILS activity.
我记得听你说再保险的有机增长是 5%，而这是相对于近期几个非常强劲的季度。能否拆分一下，这个有机增长数字中是否包含定价方面的影响？另外，你们是否也从 ILS（保险相关证券）活动中看到了一些收益？
Douglas K. Howell
In the second quarter, not much benefit from ILS. We've had a -- relatively speaking, it's not a big quarter on reinsurance. And just ask your question about the reinsurance 5% again, maybe I didn't hear you right.
在第二季度，我们并没有从 ILS 中获得多少收益。相对而言，这不是再保险的一个大季度。至于你问的再保险 5% 的问题，或许我没完全听清。
Andrew E. Andersen
Just any impact from pricing that was a headwind to that 5%?
我只是想确认一下，定价方面是否对这 5% 构成了阻力？
Douglas K. Howell
Maybe a little bit, but we're seeing some -- the carriers are realizing there's some opportunities here to increase their purchase of reinsurance. So that more than offset that.
可能有一点，但我们也看到保险公司意识到这里有增加再保险购买的机会，所以这部分增长已经完全抵消了定价方面的不利影响。
Andrew E. Andersen
Great. And then I think in the script, you mentioned some early AI successes. Could you maybe elaborate a bit on those?
很好。然后我记得你在发言稿中提到了一些早期 AI 成功案例。能否稍微详细说明一下？
Douglas K. Howell
Well, listen, I told Greg, I wasn't going to talk about it until September, so I wouldn't be very fair of me to go ahead and listen, we're doing some really -- Gallagher Bassett is really having some terrific results in their claim submissions. We're starting to do really well with policy review. On the back office side, we're starting to get some momentum on kind of what I call near AI on bank reconciliations, et cetera, we still have a lot of those going on. And so there's a smattering of business, but the big things that stand out right now are claims summarization and policy review.
好的，其实我跟 Greg 说过，在 9 月之前我不会多谈这个，所以现在展开说不太公平。不过我可以提一下，我们在 Gallagher Bassett 的理赔提交方面已经取得了非常好的成果。我们在保单审核方面也做得越来越好。在后台方面，我们在一些我称之为“准 AI”的领域（如银行对账等）开始积累动能，这类项目还在不断推进。所以，目前 AI 在业务中的应用是零散的，但目前最突出的两个亮点是理赔摘要和保单审核。
Operator
Our final questions will come from the line of Katie Sakys with Autonomous Research.
最后一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 的 Katie Sakys。
Katie Sakys
I think I heard you guys mention 7% growth on E&S business in the quarter. Would you be able to break that down a little bit further, thinking about the difference between open brokerage and MGA's?
我记得你们提到本季度 E&S 业务增长了 7%。能否进一步拆解一下，比如开放经纪与 MGA 之间的差异？
J. Patrick Gallagher
I think the faster grower of the 2 MGA's programs and open market is clearly the MGA business. I don't have a stat ready off the top of my head. Let me just look down the table here.
在 MGA 项目和开放市场这两类中，增长更快的显然是 MGA 业务。我手头没有现成的数据，让我看一下表格。
Douglas K. Howell
Yes. Listen, I can tell you, this is that the binding and is up towards double digit. And the issue you've got to look at an open brokerage is the submissions are up, but because some of the renewable premiums are flat, it's primarily a property quarter. For me to say that it was flat, that might be a little unfair without context that we're still getting tons of submissions going into the open brokerage spot.
是的，我可以告诉你的是，绑定类业务的增长接近两位数。而在开放经纪方面，需要注意的是提交量确实在增加，但由于部分续保保费持平，本季度主要是财产险驱动。如果我说它是持平的，可能不太公平，因为实际上我们仍然收到大量的开放经纪提交。
Katie Sakys
I appreciate the additional context. And then just on thinking about the closure of the Assured Partners acquisition. I can appreciate that you don't have a whole lot of additional detail for us. But is there any changing in your thinking about the need to potentially divest some parts of that business or offer other remedies in order to get the deal over the finish line?
感谢你们的补充说明。接下来我想问关于 Assured Partners 并购完成的情况。我理解你们不能透露太多细节。但你们是否在考虑，是否需要剥离部分业务或提供其他补救措施，以便让交易顺利完成？
J. Patrick Gallagher
Absolutely not. Okay. I think that's our last question. I've got just a quick thank you for everybody for joining us. I know it's late this afternoon. I appreciate it. We feel we had a great first half of 2025. Most importantly, I want to thank the 59,000 colleagues that we have for all their hard work. Thank you. And to all our clients around the globe, we're proud to be your trusted advisers. Thank you, and thank all of you for joining us. Have a great evening.
绝对没有。好的，我想这就是最后一个问题了。我想简单地感谢大家今天的参与。我知道现在已是下午很晚了，非常感谢你们。我们认为自己度过了一个非常出色的 2025 年上半年。最重要的是，我要感谢我们 59,000 名同事的辛勤付出。谢谢你们。同时，也要感谢全球的客户，我们很自豪能成为你们值得信赖的顾问。谢谢大家，祝各位晚上愉快。
Operator
Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. We appreciate your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.
谢谢大家。本次电话会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与。您现在可以断开线路，祝您今天余下的时间愉快。