2025-08-01 Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 1, 2025 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants
Darren W. Woods - Chairman of the Board, President & CEO
James R. Chapman - VP of Investor Relations & Treasurer
Conference Call Participants
Alastair Roderick Syme - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Biraj Borkhataria - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Devin J. McDermott - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Douglas George Blyth Leggate - Wolfe Research, LLC
Francis Lloyd Byrne - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Jason Daniel Gabelman - TD Cowen, Research Division
Jean Ann Salisbury - BofA Securities, Research Division
Neil Singhvi Mehta - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Ryan M. Todd - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Stephen I. Richardson - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Wei Jiang - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Yim Chuen Cheng - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division
James R. Chapman
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to ExxonMobil's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. Today's call is being recorded. We appreciate you joining us.
大家早上好。欢迎参加ExxonMobil 2025年第二季度财报电话会议。今天的会议正在录音。感谢大家的参与。
I'm Jim Chapman, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations, and I'm joined by Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Kathy Mikells, our Senior Vice President and CFO, is not on the call today as she is recovering from a planned medical procedure. We wish her a speedy recovery.
我是Jim Chapman，副总裁、财务主管兼投资者关系负责人。今天和我一同出席的是董事长兼首席执行官Darren Woods。我们的高级副总裁兼首席财务官Kathy Mikells因计划中的医疗手术正在康复中，未能参加此次电话会议。我们祝她早日康复。
This quarter's presentation and prerecorded remarks are available on the Investors section of our website. They're meant to accompany the second quarter earnings press release, which is posted in the same location.
本季度的演示文稿和预先录制的发言可在公司官网的投资者栏目查阅，它们是对第二季度财报新闻稿的补充，该新闻稿也已发布在同一页面。
During today's presentation, we'll make forward-looking comments, including discussions of our long-term plans, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, please read our cautionary statement on Slide 2. You can find more information on the risks and uncertainties that apply to any forward-looking statements in our SEC filings on our website. Note that we also provided supplemental information at the end of our earnings slides which are also posted on the website.
在今天的演示中，我们将发表前瞻性评论，其中包括对长期规划的讨论。这些内容存在风险和不确定性，请参阅第2页的风险提示声明。有关前瞻性声明所涉及风险和不确定性的更多信息，请查阅公司官网上的SEC文件。需要注意的是，我们还在财报演示文稿的最后提供了补充信息，这些内容同样已在官网发布。
And now I'll turn it over to Darren for opening remarks.
现在我把时间交给Darren做开场发言。
Darren W. Woods
Good morning, and thank you for joining us. This quarter once again proved the value of our strategy and our competitive advantages. They continue to deliver for our shareholders, no matter the market conditions or geopolitical developments. We built our strategy to take maximum advantage of ExxonMobil's uniquely diversified business across multiple markets and products, products that exist today and new products that our groundbreaking technology will enable for the future.
大家早上好，感谢各位的参与。本季度再次证明了我们战略的价值和竞争优势。不论市场环境或地缘政治如何变化，我们的战略始终能够为股东创造回报。我们制定的战略旨在最大限度发挥ExxonMobil在多个市场和产品领域独特的多元化业务优势，既包括现有产品，也包括未来由我们突破性技术所驱动的新产品。
In our Upstream business, we achieved the highest second quarter production since the merger of Exxon and Mobil more than 25 years ago. But it's not just about the volume. We're growing production from assets that deliver the most value. More than half of our oil and natural gas production comes from high-return, advantaged assets. We expect that number to climb to more than 60% by the end of the decade.
在上游业务方面，我们实现了自25年前Exxon与Mobil合并以来的最高第二季度产量。但这不仅仅是产量的提升，更关键的是我们正在增加那些能带来最大价值的资产产量。目前我们超过一半的石油和天然气产量来自高回报、具有竞争优势的资产。我们预计到本世纪末，这一比例将提升至60%以上。
One of our most important advantaged assets is Guyana where we recently marked the 10-year anniversary of our first oil discovery. With nearly 11 billion barrels of resource, it's industry's biggest oil discovery in the past 15 years.
我们最重要的优势资产之一是圭亚那，近期我们迎来了首次石油发现的10周年纪念。这里拥有近110亿桶资源，是过去15年来全球石油行业最大的发现。
We have three major developments online producing roughly 650,000 gross barrels per day in total, considerably above our investment basis.
我们已经有三个大型项目投产，总产量约为每天65万桶，远超我们的投资基准。
Our fourth development, and the largest to date, Yellowtail, is next in line and anticipated to achieve first oil next week, delivered 4 months out of schedule and under budget. By 2030, we expect to have total production capacity of 1.7 million oil equivalent barrels per day from eight developments.
我们的第四个开发项目，也是迄今为止最大的一个——Yellowtail，即将投产，预计下周实现首次出油，该项目比原计划提前4个月完成并低于预算。到2030年，我们预计来自八个开发项目的总产能将达到每天170万桶油当量。
The success of these projects has established Guyana as the world's fastest-growing economy. It's also one of the reasons I believe the Guyana development will prove to be one of the most successful deepwater developments of all time.
这些项目的成功使圭亚那成为全球增长最快的经济体之一。这也是我坚信圭亚那开发将成为史上最成功的深水油气开发之一的重要原因。
Regarding the recent arbitration decision, I admit the ruling was a surprise. We were highly confident in our position and so was CNOOC. This dispute was about protecting our contractual rights.
关于最近的仲裁裁决，我承认结果令人意外。我们对自身立场充满信心，中海油亦是如此。这场争议的核心在于维护我们的合同权利。
The sanctity of contracts among governments, investors and co-ventures is critical for the upstream industry. Without it, confidence in the large capital investments is undermined. Having co-written the contract with Shell, we understood its intent and believe the contractual language conveyed it. Unfortunately, the tribunal interpreted it differently.
在上游行业中，政府、投资者和合作方之间合同的神圣性至关重要。若无法保障，巨额资本投资的信心就会受损。由于我们与Shell共同起草了合同，我们理解其意图，并认为合同条款准确传达了这一点。不幸的是，仲裁庭给出了不同的解读。
While disappointed, we respect the process and the ruling. As we move forward, I hope our investors take comfort in the length we will go to in protecting the value our employees create for the company and our shareholders. With respect to the continuing development of Guyana, the arbitrators decision changes nothing for us, and we welcome Chevron to the Stabroek Block.
尽管感到失望，但我们尊重这一过程和裁决。展望未来，我希望投资者能够看到我们在保护员工为公司和股东创造的价值方面所做的不懈努力。至于圭亚那的持续开发，这一仲裁决定对我们没有任何改变，我们也欢迎Chevron加入Stabroek区块。
Moving to the Permian Basin. During the quarter, we produced roughly 1.6 million oil equivalent barrels per day, which was another record for us. Nowhere is our emphasis on technology and innovation paying off more clearly and immediately than in the Permian, where we have the largest inventory of Tier 1 acreage.
接下来谈Permian盆地。本季度我们日均产量约为160万桶油当量，再次创下纪录。在Permian，我们拥有最多的一级优质储量，这里也是我们在技术与创新投入带来最显著和即时成效的地方。
Last year, we increased the total resource from 16 billion to 18 billion oil equivalent barrels with the successful development of new technologies. Our team is making great progress on my challenge to double recovery from the industry average of roughly 7%.
去年，我们通过新技术的成功开发，将总资源量从160亿桶油当量提升至180亿桶。我们的团队正在我提出的挑战上取得巨大进展——将行业平均约7%的采收率提高一倍。
We continue to make progress on the deployment of lightweight proppant, a patented material made at a very low cost with petroleum coke from our refineries. It is proving to be more effective at keeping fractures open, allowing us to extract more oil and gas from each well.
我们在轻质支撑剂的应用上持续推进。这是一种专利材料，由炼厂石油焦以极低成本制成。事实证明，它在保持裂缝畅通方面更有效，从而帮助我们从每口井中提取更多的油气。
On a 10,000 lateral foot equivalent basis, we've deployed this in over 100 Permian wells and are seeing improved recoveries up to 20%. That's up 5 percentage points from what we announced last December. By year-end, we expect deployments to reach roughly 150 more wells.
在1万英尺水平段的等效基准下，我们已在100多口Permian井中应用了这一技术，并看到采收率提高至20%，较去年12月公布的水平提升了5个百分点。到今年年底，我们预计将在大约150口新井中进一步部署。
And we're also leveraging our advantage of contiguous acreage to drill 4-mile laterals without losing any productivity. Others are drilling wells half that length at far greater cost, resulting in much lower capital efficiency.
我们还利用连片区块的优势钻探4英里长的水平井，而生产力没有任何下降。相比之下，其他运营商钻探的井长度仅为我们的一半，但成本却高得多，资本效率因此显著降低。
So while some operators in the Permian are talking about peak production, our current plan is grow Permian production from about 1.6 million oil equivalent barrels to 2.3 million by 2030. And with a deep portfolio of technologies we're developing, we have the industry unique opportunity to drive capital-efficient, high-return growth well beyond that.
因此，尽管有些Permian的运营商在谈论产量见顶，我们的现行计划是到2030年将产量从约160万桶油当量提升至230万桶。凭借我们正在开发的丰富技术储备，我们拥有行业内独一无二的机会，在保持资本高效和高回报的前提下，实现更长期的增长。
技术和投入是非常重要的变量。
Turning to our Product Solutions project start-ups. We're continuing to ramp up operations at the China Chemical Complex. This facility supplies China's growing domestic market, the largest in the world, with high-value consumer-oriented chemical products used in household appliances, hygiene products and safe food packaging.
接下来谈产品解决方案项目的投产情况。我们正在持续提升中国化工综合体的运营能力。该设施为全球最大的中国国内市场提供高价值的消费导向型化工产品，这些产品被广泛应用于家电、卫生用品和安全食品包装。
We're also starting up our Singapore Resid Upgrade project, deploying new-to-the-world technology that converts the lowest value molecules at the bottom of the barrel into some of the highest value products we offer. With this new technology, we've introduced a new lubricant base stock, which we've sold out, and have essentially sold out the incremental 20,000 barrels per day of production.
我们也在启动新加坡渣油升级项目，采用全球首创的技术，将原油中最低价值的分子转化为我们所提供的最高价值产品。借助这一新技术，我们推出了一种新的润滑油基础油，目前已售罄，同时新增的2万桶/日产量也几乎全部售出。
We've started up our Fawley Hydrofiner project in the U.K. converting high sulfur gas oil exports to domestic ultra-low sulfur diesel sales. We're now producing renewable diesel at Strathcona in Canada for the first time. This is a key part of our lower emissions fuel strategy, growing production where policy and economics are supportive of cost effectively reducing the carbon intensity of essential products.
我们已在英国启动了Fawley加氢精制项目，将高硫柴油出口转化为国内超低硫柴油销售。同时，我们也首次在加拿大Strathcona工厂生产可再生柴油。这是我们低排放燃料战略的关键组成部分，通过在政策和经济条件支持的地区扩大产量，以高效降低关键产品的碳强度。
Lastly, we expanded operations at our new Proxxima systems blending facility in Texas, a critical step to more than tripling production capacity this year. We also signed an MOU with a leading building materials and construction company based in the Middle East to manufacture and distribute rebar made with Proxxima. These are important steps in establishing this new business.
最后，我们扩大了位于德克萨斯州的新Proxxima系统混合工厂的运营，这是实现今年产能提升三倍以上的重要一步。我们还与一家总部位于中东的领先建筑材料和施工公司签署了谅解备忘录，将使用Proxxima制造并销售钢筋。这些举措对建立这一新业务具有重要意义。
In total, our 2025 project start-ups are expected to drive more than \$3 billion of earnings in 2026 at constant prices and margin. This goes a long way towards derisking our plans to achieve \[ 20, 30 ] by 2030. That's \$20 billion of additional earnings and \$30 billion of cash flow versus 2024 on a constant price and margin basis.
总体而言，我们预计2025年投产的项目将在2026年带来超过30亿美元的收益（以恒定价格和利润率计算）。这将极大降低我们实现“20、30”目标的风险。该目标是到2030年，在2024年的基础上增加200亿美元的收益和300亿美元的现金流（同样以恒定价格和利润率为基准）。
In our Low Carbon Solutions business, our first third-party carbon capture and storage project is now in operation. The project uses our CO2 transport and storage network, the world's only large-scale system, to store up to 2 million metric tons of CO2 per year that otherwise would have been emitted to the atmosphere.
在低碳解决方案业务方面，我们的首个第三方碳捕集与封存（CCS）项目已正式投入运行。该项目利用我们全球唯一的大规模二氧化碳运输和存储网络，每年可储存高达200万吨原本将排放到大气中的二氧化碳。
We also recently announced our seventh CCS customer contract. This brings total third-party CO2 offtake to nearly 10 million metric tons per year. In addition, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued the draft Class VI permit for our Rose CO2 storage facility in Texas. We expect Rose to be the first of many storage sites linked to our CO2 transport pipeline.
我们近期还宣布了第七份CCS客户合同，使第三方二氧化碳承购总量接近每年1000万吨。此外，美国环保署已向我们位于德克萨斯州的Rose二氧化碳储存设施颁发了六类井许可证草案。我们预计Rose将成为与我们二氧化碳运输管道相连的众多储存场所中的首个。
Turning to the status of our Baytown hydrogen plant, the world's largest low carbon hydrogen project, we've seen mixed progress. As we've said, this is a complicated project that requires simultaneous development of supply, demand and policy.
接下来谈Baytown氢气工厂的最新进展，这是全球最大的低碳氢项目。目前进展喜忧参半。正如我们所说，这是一项复杂的工程，需要供应、需求和政策的同步发展。
We were disappointed that under the recently approved 45V tax credit, timing for startup of construction was shortened from 2033 to the beginning of 2028. While our project can meet this time line, we're concerned about the development of a broader market, which is critical to transition from government incentives.
我们对近期批准的45V税收抵免条款感到失望，因为项目开工时间被从2033年提前至2028年初。虽然我们的项目能够满足这一时间表，但我们担忧更广泛市场的发展情况，因为这对从政府激励过渡到市场驱动至关重要。
If we can't see an eventual path to a market-driven business, we won't move forward with the project. We're now working to determine if the combination of 45Q and a shortened 45V will provide the support needed to catalyze a broader low-carbon hydrogen market.
如果我们看不到实现市场驱动型业务的最终路径，我们将不会推进该项目。目前我们正在评估45Q与缩短后的45V是否能够提供足够支持，以催化更广泛的低碳氢市场。
Beyond that, we're working to translate heads of agreements into firm sales contracts, including exports of ammonia to Asia and Europe and domestic hydrogen sales. We knew that helping to establish a brand-new product and a brand-new market initially driven by government policy would not be easy or advance in a straight line. It's why we focused on low carbon opportunities aligned with our existing capabilities and advantages.
除此之外，我们正在将框架协议转化为正式的销售合同，其中包括对亚洲和欧洲的氨出口以及国内氢气销售。我们早就清楚，推动一个全新产品和新兴市场的建立——尤其在初期由政府政策驱动——不会轻松或一帆风顺。这也是我们专注于与现有能力和优势相契合的低碳机遇的原因。
Our strategy provides optionality and flexibility, which is critically important in this dynamic and often uncertain world. I'm pleased to see that it's working.
我们的战略为我们提供了选择性和灵活性，这在当今充满变数和不确定性的世界中至关重要。我很高兴看到这一战略正在发挥作用。
We're strengthening and extending advantages our competitors can't match with a focused portfolio of advantaged assets operated to the highest standards, world-class execution of large-scale high-return projects, captured cost savings that exceed all other IOCs combined since 2019 and driving superior earnings and cash flow growth potential irrespective of the market environment or geopolitical uncertainty. It's why we believe, and more importantly, are demonstrating that we are in a league of our own.
我们正在通过以下方式不断强化并扩大竞争对手无法匹敌的优势：专注于运营最高标准的优势资产组合；以世界级水准执行大型高回报项目；自2019年以来实现的成本节约超过所有其他国际石油公司（IOC）的总和；并推动卓越的盈利与现金流增长潜力，不论市场环境或地缘政治的不确定性如何。这就是我们相信并且更重要的是正在证明的原因——我们处于独树一帜的地位。
Thank you, and we're happy to answer your questions.
谢谢大家，我们很乐意回答各位的问题。
James R. Chapman
All right. Thank you, Darren. Before we move to Q&A, I want to highlight that we will be publishing our annual global outlook later this month, that as normally -- as is usual, contains our latest views on global energy demand and supply through 2050, which forms the basis of our business planning. So with that, we can move to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] And operator, we'll ask you to please open the line for the first question.
好的，谢谢你，Darren。在进入问答环节之前，我想强调一下，我们将在本月晚些时候发布年度全球展望报告。与往常一样，该报告包含我们对2050年前全球能源需求和供应的最新看法，并构成我们业务规划的基础。那么，接下来我们可以进入问答环节。[操作员提示] 操作员，请开放电话线路，进入第一个提问。
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Devin McDermott of Morgan Stanley.
[操作员提示] 第一个问题来自Morgan Stanley的Devin McDermott。
Devin J. McDermott
A lot of good stuff to dive into in the release, but I actually wanted to ask, Darren, about some comments you recently made in an interview around M&A. I'm paraphrasing a bit but just talking about seeing opportunities and working to bring some of that to fruition, want to just unpack that a bit.
在财报中有很多值得深入探讨的内容，但我实际上想问一下Darren，关于你最近在一次采访中谈到的并购（M&A）问题。我稍微概括一下，你提到看到了机会，并正努力将其中一些落地。我想更深入地理解一下这一点。
If you think about your portfolio, you have a really strong organic opportunity ahead. And I imagine that creates a very high bar. And then at the same time, you've also talked a lot about the technology you bring to bear, like the uplift highlighting in the release on the Permian. And that may be able to create value in assets that others can't.
如果考虑到你们的资产组合，你们面前有非常强劲的有机增长机会。我认为这也设定了一个很高的门槛。同时，你也多次谈到你们所具备的技术优势，比如在Permian的成果，这可能使你们能够在其他人无法创造价值的资产上实现价值提升。
So when you put these factors together, high bar, differentiated technology, differentiated scale, how does that influence your thoughts on further acquisitions and M&A for Exxon? Are there asset types or regions where you see the biggest opportunity?
那么，当这些因素结合在一起——高门槛、差异化的技术和规模——这会如何影响你们对Exxon未来收购和并购的看法？在哪些资产类型或地区，你们认为机会最大？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Devin, thanks for the question. I think you're touching on, frankly, what is the core of our strategy here, which was to focus on building a unique set of capabilities and competitive advantages that we can then leverage to grow organic value, importantly, which is what we've been very focused on, as you know, but also use those advantages and apply them to other opportunities inorganically to grow and create value and create more value than, frankly, the combination of two entities would normally give.
好的，Devin，谢谢你的问题。我认为你其实触及了我们战略的核心——那就是专注于构建一套独特的能力和竞争优势，从而利用这些优势来推动有机增长，这是我们一直非常关注的重点。同时，我们也会将这些优势应用到非有机机会中去，以推动增长并创造价值，且创造的价值要超过两家公司简单相加所能带来的结果。
So it's kind of the one plus one has to equal three or more, which we've talked about for some time. We saw that play out, I think, and are continuing to see it play out with the Pioneer acquisition, where we're making really good progress at growing the synergies.
换句话说，我们的理念是“1+1必须大于3”，这一点我们已经强调了一段时间。我认为在收购Pioneer的案例中我们已经看到了这种效果，而且我们仍在不断实现协同增效。
We started off with $2 billion, we announced we're up to $3 billion per year on average over the next 10 years. My expectation as we go into the corporate plan discussion at the end of this year is that we'll update that number even further. So very, very pleased with what we're seeing there.
我们最初预计能够实现20亿美元的协同效益，而现在我们已经宣布，这一数字将在未来10年内平均每年达到30亿美元。我预计在今年年底的公司战略讨论中，我们还会进一步上调这一数字。因此，我对目前的成果感到非常满意。
And that opens us up to looking at additional opportunities to do the same thing, where we stay very focused on value deals. We're not really interested in buying volumes. We're interested in building value -- in building volumes. And that's what we've been doing in Pioneer and what we look for in other opportunities.
这也为我们寻找更多类似的机会打开了大门，在此过程中我们会非常专注于“价值驱动型”交易。我们并不单纯为了购买产量，而是为了构建价值——在构建价值的同时提升产量。这正是我们在Pioneer身上所做的，也是我们在其他机会中所关注的方向。
If you look at Pioneer, the advantages that we brought there was a leading technology and scale. We also, in that transaction, took advantage of accretive talent acquisition and leadership acquisition. So we're not looking at -- G&A is one part of the equation. But as you know, with Pioneer, it was a very small part. Our expectation is that would be true as we go forward.
如果你看Pioneer这笔交易，我们带入的优势是领先的技术和规模。此外，这笔交易还让我们获得了增值的人才和领导力。因此，尽管一般管理费用（G&A）也是并购考量的一部分，但正如你所知道的，在Pioneer案例中，这只占据很小的比例。我们预计未来在类似交易中情况也会如此。
We're not looking to buy companies and then strip all the people out of them. Instead, we're looking to buy companies with talented folks where we learn from them and they learn from us. So that's a really important part of our acquisition strategy.
我们并不是要收购公司然后裁掉其中的员工。相反，我们希望收购那些拥有优秀人才的公司，在那里我们能够向他们学习，他们也能向我们学习。这是我们并购战略中非常重要的一部分。
And I guess the other example to point to in terms of that integration and taking advantage of the talent and leadership, and the former CEO of Pioneer is now running all of our Permian business, so contributing at a very high level.
另一个可以作为例子的就是在整合过程中充分利用人才和领导力。比如，Pioneer的前首席执行官现在正在负责我们所有的Permian业务，并在很高层面上作出了贡献。
And then frankly, we got to have the right cultural fit as you bring folks into the organization, an intense focus on safety and environmental care, focus on efficiency and performance and then the quality and commitment of people. We've often talked about, in our company, we have averaged 10 years to 30 years. We like companies where their employees are committed to the company and the work that they're doing.
此外，坦率地说，当我们把新成员带入组织时，必须要有合适的文化契合度。比如对安全和环保的高度重视，对效率和绩效的专注，以及员工的素质与投入。在我们公司，员工的平均任职时间通常在10年至30年之间。我们喜欢那些员工对公司和工作都充满承诺的企业。
So those are the things that we're looking for. I would argue that we've got a fairly high standards in looking at opportunities, but I think it's what's required to really build the volume/value proposition rather than just a consolidation of volume.
所以这些就是我们所关注的要素。我认为我们在审视机会时设定的标准相当高，但我也认为这是必须的，因为我们追求的是真正构建“产量/价值命题”，而不仅仅是单纯的产量整合。
But as I said in the interview, we think there are opportunities out there and -- across all of our sectors, frankly, not just in the Upstream, but across all the areas that we do business. We have a very active activity set where we're looking at opportunities.
但正如我在采访中所说的，我们认为市场上确实存在机会——而且遍布于我们所有的业务领域，不仅仅是在上游业务，而是覆盖我们经营的所有领域。我们目前保持着非常活跃的项目储备，持续在寻找合适的机会。
And that's really what I meant in my comments is we're continuing to keep a really close eye on the waterfront, see where the opportunities are, do a good job of understanding what that unique value creation opportunity looks like and then see if we can find something that we can then eventually land. But that's an ongoing and long-term process. So that's process that we're in today, and we feel pretty good about that.
这实际上就是我之前评论中想表达的意思——我们会持续密切关注市场动态，看看哪里存在机会，深入理解这些独特的价值创造机会究竟是什么样子，然后判断我们是否能找到并最终落地合适的目标。但这是一个持续进行、长期性的过程。而目前我们正处在这个过程中，并且对此感到相当有信心。
Operator
The next question is from Neil Mehta of Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自Goldman Sachs的Neil Mehta。
Neil Singhvi Mehta
Yes. Thanks, Darren, for the comments. I wanted to drill down on Slide 7, where you provided some new disclosure about the Permian production potential, and there's been a lot that's been said about peak Permian production across the basin.
好的，谢谢你，Darren的评论。我想深入探讨一下第7页，你们在这里披露了有关Permian产量潜力的新信息。关于Permian盆地整体产量见顶的讨论很多。
Do you have a different view given your technology upside. Certainly, it seems like you do for your portfolio. And in that context, on the back of Devin's question about M&A, is it logical to think that this is the right space for you to be the consolidator in?
鉴于你们的技术优势，你们是否持有不同的观点？显然，就你们的资产组合而言，你们确实如此。在这个背景下，结合Devin关于并购的问题，是否可以认为Permian是你们扮演整合者角色的正确领域？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Thank you, Neil. And your first part of the question is are we different and have a different view. And I think the answer to that is absolutely yes. You may recall from very early days, when we came into the unconventional space, the challenge at the time that I kind of put into a baseball analogy was we're a long ball hitter. Everybody in the unconventional space is playing the short game.
好的，谢谢你，Neil。关于你第一个问题，我们是否不同、是否持有不同观点？我认为答案是“绝对如此”。你可能还记得，在我们刚进入非常规资源领域时，我用棒球作了个比喻：我们是打“长球”的选手，而当时非常规领域的其他人都在打“短球”。
What's long ball look like in unconventional and that led us into the cube development discussions that we've talked about in the past that initially were, I think, discounted, but now have become the industry standard. And it led to the challenge of given how early we are in the technical development of unconventional resources to really push hard on the technology envelope.
“长球”在非常规资源中意味着什么？这引导我们进入了所谓“立方体开发”的讨论，我们过去已经谈过。当初，这一模式可能并不被重视，但现在它已经成为行业标准。这也带来了一个挑战：鉴于非常规资源的技术开发还处于早期阶段，我们必须大力推动技术边界。
And I set a stretched target of doubling that recovery frankly, as a starting point because, as we all know, the recovery levels are fairly low compared to other resource types. And that's our technology organization and the changes that we've made have resulted in a very promising portfolio of technologies that we see some significant potential and are early in the stages of deploying those and getting results.
我当时提出了一个非常激进的目标——将采收率翻倍，作为起点。因为大家都知道，相比其他资源类型，非常规资源的采收率相对较低。正是基于这一挑战，我们的技术团队以及我们所做出的改革，已经带来了一个极具潜力的技术组合。目前我们正处于这些技术早期部署和取得成果的阶段。
We talked about on that slide, the fact that the lightweight proppant that we shared with all of you in December that we're actually seeing better results than we had even talked about then, a 20% improvement in recoveries. That's just one of many in the portfolio that we're continuing to deploy.
我们在那张幻灯片中提到的轻质支撑剂就是一个例子。去年12月我们与大家分享了这一点，如今结果比当时预期的还要好——采收率提高了20%。而这只是我们正在部署的众多技术中的一个。
不可预测的技术进步。
And we've gotten very aggressive at getting enough of the technology development done and then quickly deploying it to see empirically what are the results that we get as we continue in parallel to develop that.
我们在技术开发完成到一定程度后，会非常积极地快速部署，以便通过实证来检验结果，同时并行推进进一步研发。
So that work, the early evidence of that we're seeing, which, frankly, from an external standpoint, will be very difficult to see given the size of our business there and how early we are in these deployments, but that has led us to have growing confidence that the projections that we have past 2030 is an upward vector and will continue to grow.
因此，这些工作的早期迹象已经显现。坦率地说，从外部角度来看，这可能很难被察觉，因为我们在该地区的业务规模庞大，而且这些部署还处于早期阶段。但这些迹象让我们越来越有信心，到2030年以后，我们的增长曲线将继续向上。
And frankly, we're still -- and I would tell you the technology organization is very committed to delivering on doubling recovery, if not more. And I think that's going to be within our grasp at some point in the future, not there today, but I really like the work that the team is doing and the fact that they now own that challenge.
坦率地说，我们仍然——而且我可以肯定地说，我们的技术团队高度致力于实现采收率翻倍，甚至更高。我认为在未来的某个时刻，我们将能够做到。虽然今天还未完全达到，但我非常认可团队正在进行的工作，也很欣慰他们已将这一挑战视为自己的使命。
So to your point then is given that unique capabilities, does that create opportunities for the one plus one equals three. And I say it absolutely does. I think it is a function of finding the right resource base, the base -- the acreage that we can deploy that technology on. And then these other criteria that I just went through with Devin. And that's, I think, is a huge opportunity for us.
因此，回到你的问题：凭借这些独特的能力，是否会产生“1+1>3”的机会？我认为答案是肯定的。这取决于我们能否找到合适的资源基础和区块，使我们能够应用这些技术。再结合我刚才与Devin讨论过的其他标准，这对我们来说是一个巨大的机会。
We've also got unique technology that we're deploying in the lubricants business. We've also got unique in the chemical business. And so as you go across the portfolio, our technology organization is frankly driving developments across our whole portfolio of businesses. That will lead to better performance in our base case assets and then potentially open up different types of opportunities for inorganic acquisitions.
我们在润滑油业务中也在应用独特的技术，在化工业务中同样如此。总体来看，我们的技术团队正在推动整个业务组合的发展。这将带来基础资产更好的表现，并可能为非有机并购创造新的机会。
Operator
The next question is from Doug Leggate of Wolfe Research.
下一个问题来自Wolfe Research的Doug Leggate。
Douglas George Blyth Leggate
I hate to beat on the Permian, but I'm going to ask the question again, but a little differently. Slide 7 suggests you have a 20-year inventory. I'm not quite sure what the definition of that is. Is it today's production or is it the 2.3 -- I mean in terms of sustaining the 2.3 by 2030 and of course, the arrow is up into the right.
我不想老是纠缠在Permian问题上，但我还是想再问一次，不过方式稍微不同。第7页显示你们有20年的库存。我不太确定这个定义具体是什么？它是基于今天的产量，还是指2030年达到230万桶的水平？也就是说，这个数字是否意味着能够维持到那时的产量？而且，图上的箭头是持续向上的。
My question is this, obviously, you're on a treadmill in Permian and it's going to be 40% of your production and you basically are a dividend company. So you're way -- it seems to us at least that you're pushing the company towards or skewing the company towards higher decline, higher sustaining capital and presumably shrinking inventory life as you grow the production, which is a big part of the free cash presumably contributing to your dividend.
我的问题是这样的：显然，你们在Permian的业务像是在跑步机上一样，它将占你们总产量的40%，而你们本质上是一家分红型公司。所以至少在我们看来，你们似乎正在把公司推向一个更高递减率、更高维持资本支出、并且在产量增长过程中可能导致库存寿命缩短的局面。而这些自由现金流的很大一部分显然是用于分红的。
So how do you think about the risk profile, putting that much of a high decline asset into a long-term dividend visibility anchor to your stock?
那么，你们如何看待这种风险结构？也就是将如此高递减性的资产作为长期分红可见性的锚点放到公司股票之上？
Darren W. Woods
Well, I think, Doug, that the way we think about it is this is just one part of a big portfolio. We've always been faced in the upstream with the challenge of depletion and finding barrels to replace the depletion rate and the production that we bring online. And so that's not a new challenge for the company. We don't think the best way of addressing that challenge is by inventorying value.
Doug，我认为我们看待这个问题的方式是——Permian只是整个大型投资组合中的一部分。在上游业务中，我们始终面临的挑战就是资源枯竭，以及如何找到新的桶油来替代递减的产量和新增产量。因此，这对公司来说并不是一个新挑战。我们并不认为应对这一挑战的最佳方式是“储存价值”。
Our view is you got to strike the right balance between, frankly, the pace at which we develop this is balanced with the progress we're making in technical developments and making sure that we give ourselves the time to develop the technologies to improve the capital efficiency and the cost to bring more on.
我们的看法是，必须在开发速度与技术进展之间找到合适的平衡。我们需要确保有足够的时间来发展新技术，从而提升资本效率、降低成本，以便带来更多产量。
So my perspective is that we're going to see continued improvements and one, our ability to capital that we have to spend to access the resource, and then two, the recovery that we're getting with that capital. And so I think you're extrapolating from, I'd say, a paradigm of today. Our view is the paradigm of the future will be different.
所以我的观点是，我们将持续看到两个方面的改进：第一，我们用资本开发资源的能力；第二，我们通过资本投入所获得的采收率。因此，我认为你现在的推论更多是基于“当下的模式”。而在我们看来，未来的模式将会有所不同。
But on top of that, it's -- you're going to open up new space with these technologies that, as we just talked about, provide inorganic opportunities. That's a critical aspect of this. It's we're going to open up new space where other types of resource around the world will benefit from the technologies that we're tapping into.
除此之外，正如我们刚才提到的，这些技术还会开辟新的空间，从而带来非有机机会。这一点至关重要。我们将开拓出新的领域，使全球其他类型的资源也能受益于我们正在应用的这些技术。
And so it all comes back fundamentally to focusing on core capabilities, growing that capability and then applying it to opportunities that we continue to grow the business.
所以最终归根结底，就是要专注于核心能力，持续提升这些能力，并将其应用到新的机会中，以推动业务不断增长。
And our expectation and the challenge that we've given all of our business is continued cash flow and earnings growth. And I would couple those two things. It's not good enough to grow cash flow without the earnings. That to me says you're just spending too much for the cash.
我们的预期以及我们对所有业务部门提出的挑战，是要实现现金流和盈利的持续增长。我必须强调，这两者必须相辅相成。单纯增加现金流而没有盈利增长是不够的，因为那意味着只是花费过多资本去换取现金。
So we -- our plans that we're putting together, the ones that we'll talk to you about in December and the ones that we're building beyond 2030 are going to drive towards this earnings and cash flow growth well into the future, explicitly comprehending the development plans that we have here in the Permian.
因此，我们正在制定的计划，包括将在12月与大家分享的方案，以及2030年之后的长期规划，目标都是在未来持续推动盈利和现金流的增长，并且明确纳入了我们在Permian的开发计划。
The 20 years of inventory, that is basically the number of wells we're bringing on every year, wells to sales. That's how we think about that.
至于所谓的20年库存，基本上指的是我们每年投产的井数，即“井到销售”的节奏。这就是我们对它的理解。
Operator
The next question is from Steve Richardson of Evercore ISI.
下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的Steve Richardson。
Stephen I. Richardson
Darren, I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about some of the downstream projects. Obviously, you've had great success bringing on a number of these major projects this year, but I was wondering if you could talk maybe about lessons learned, Strathcona and Singapore.
Darren，我想请你谈一下下游的一些项目。显然，今年你们成功投产了许多重大项目，但我想知道能否谈谈在Strathcona和新加坡项目中有哪些经验教训。
And then if you could also talk a little bit about maybe some of your future growth ambitions in refinery -- in refining? How do you think about the next wave of opportunities? And are they as fruitful as what the last 5 years has proven in the downstream specifically?
此外，你能否再谈一谈未来在炼油方面的增长目标？你如何看待下一波机会？在下游业务中，它们是否会像过去5年一样成果丰硕？
Darren W. Woods
Sure. I appreciate the question. It is -- we've had, I would tell you, extremely good success in bringing up these large product solution projects. In fact, if you go back in time, historically, before we formed a centralized projects organization, we had very mixed results across the portfolio of bringing large projects online.
当然，我很感谢这个问题。我想说，我们在这些大型产品解决方案项目的推进上取得了极其成功的成果。事实上，如果回顾历史，在我们建立集中化项目组织之前，公司在大型项目投产上的结果非常不一致。
And it was a function of the fact that we had distributed capabilities and weren't always bringing the best skill set and capability set to some of our hardest challenges.
原因在于当时我们的能力分散，并不总是能将最优秀的技能和资源集中到最棘手的挑战上。
With the project organization that we put in place and then with the way we reshape the business and the venture organizations that we put in there, there is -- we've had tremendous success in building these projects at very -- basically leading efficient capital efficiency and amazingly, have brought these projects on in less time and with less challenges than we've ever done in our history.
而随着我们建立了项目组织，并重塑了业务和风险投资组织，我们在项目建设上取得了巨大成功。我们的资本效率基本处于行业领先水平，而且令人惊讶的是，这些项目的建设周期比以往更短，遇到的挑战也更少。
And so I'm extremely proud of how the organization has brought some of these on, the China Chemical Complex was by far one of the largest, most complicated grassroot startups we've done for decades, and we brought that up in record time and got on to production very, very quickly.
因此，我对公司在这些项目上的表现感到非常自豪。例如，中国化工综合体是数十年来我们最大、最复杂的全新项目之一，但我们以创纪录的速度完成了建设，并极快地投入了生产。
I'm really proud to say I just found out this morning that Singapore Resid Upgrade project just produced on-spec base stock, which, if you remember, that is taking resid bottom of barrel and converting it to lubricant base stocks, which has never been done before, brand new-to-the-world technology at huge scale, very complicated process and the organization has successfully brought all that online and got on grade here.
我还非常自豪地告诉大家，就在今天早上，我得知新加坡渣油升级项目已经生产出了符合规格的基础油。如果你还记得，这个项目是将原油渣油转化为润滑油基础油——这种技术以前从未实现过，是全球首创的大规模工艺，过程极其复杂，但我们的团队成功完成了上线并达到了产品标准。
So really proud of what they're doing and what we're seeing in all these is the opportunity to take very low-value molecules, convert them into high-value molecules and do it in facilities where we take advantage of the existing utilities and equipment that we already have there. So very low cost of capital, incremental cost of capital.
因此，我对他们的表现非常自豪。从这些项目中我们看到的机会是，将低价值分子转化为高价值分子，并且利用已有设施中的公共配套和设备来完成。这意味着资本成本极低，新增资本开支也非常有限。
That's I would just say is the formula going forward. And so my expectation as we look -- we've been concentrating our refinery and manufacturing footprint down to the facilities where we feel like we've got these integrated capability sets that are making a variety of high-value products.
我认为这就是我们未来的发展模式。因此，我的预期是，我们会继续把炼油和制造业务集中在那些能够提供整合能力、生产各种高价值产品的设施上。
I would count on seeing us continue to find opportunities to shift the production make in those refineries and move them up the value curve, dispose of the lower-value products and bring in the higher-value products. My expectation is that's where you'll see our investments in the refining.
我预计我们将不断寻找机会，调整炼厂的产能结构，把生产重心向价值曲线的上游移动，逐步淘汰低价值产品，增加高价值产品。这将是我们未来在炼油方面的投资重点。
And I would tell you that the organization today has got some very developed plans and thinking through what some of those next steps might be. So our view is we need to get these up and running lined out and running successfully for some time, but we are thinking about what comes next and then after that.
我可以告诉你，公司目前已经制定了一些非常成熟的计划，正在思考下一步的举措。我们的观点是，首先要确保这些新设施能够顺利运行并稳定一段时间，但同时我们也在思考接下来的发展路径。
We've also got opportunities in biofuels and using these facilities to -- as the demand for that or as regulation demands it, begin to shift feeds and produce more biofuels with lower emissions. We've got more opportunities to recycle plastics. So there's just a lot of things we can do with these facilities.
我们还在探索生物燃料的机会，并利用这些设施，在需求或法规要求下调整原料，生产更多低排放的生物燃料。此外，我们也有更多塑料回收的机会。总之，这些设施能够支持我们开展很多新的业务。
And it's been a -- we broke the paradigm of thinking about these as transportation fuel or purely chemical manufacturing facilities and just have started thinking about them as a manufacturing facility with deployed technology and what can we do and what can we make with these things. And my expectation is we'll continue to develop new products of higher value.
我们已经打破了传统的思维，不再仅仅把这些项目看作是交通燃料或单纯的化工制造设施，而是把它们视为配备技术的制造平台，思考我们还能利用它们做些什么、生产什么。我的预期是，我们将持续开发更多高价值的新产品。
I think the lessons learned is the project organization was a damn good idea and is delivering. And we're really allowed by taking that responsibility off the organization. We've allowed the businesses and the operations to focus on making sure we can bring these facilities up smoothly and quickly and get on grade quickly. And frankly, all that seems to be working very, very well. So we don't have a lot of scabs to pick up in that area right now.
我认为最大的经验教训是——设立项目组织是一个极其明智的决定，并且事实证明它正在发挥作用。通过把这部分责任从业务中剥离出来，我们让各业务和运营能够专注于确保设施顺利、快速投产，并快速达到产品标准。坦率地说，这一切目前运转得非常顺利，因此在这一领域我们并没有多少需要修复的问题。
Operator
The next question is from Betty Jiang of Barclays.
下一个问题来自Barclays的Betty Jiang。
Wei Jiang
Maybe pivoting a bit to the low carbon businesses. It's interesting to see the contrast from the Big Beautiful Bill that between the rollback in the hydrogen incentive, but arguably enhancement in the carbon capture incentive.
我想稍微转向低碳业务。很有意思的一点是，在《Big Beautiful Bill》中，氢能激励有所削减，但碳捕集激励反而有所增强。
Just curious on your thoughts on how do you see the low carbon business opportunity set and CapEx evolving versus what was laid out in the December Analyst Day? And specifically on CCS, that 10 million-ton per annum is no small feat. So as the credit now is cutting carbon utilization and sequestration at parity, does that further open up the opportunity set for projects?
我想听听你对低碳业务机会和资本支出（CapEx）演变的看法，与去年12月分析师日所披露的相比有何不同？特别是在CCS方面，每年1000万吨的规模可谓不小。随着政策将碳利用和封存的补贴拉平，这是否进一步扩大了相关项目的机会空间？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Betty, so I think the way we -- you recall when we talked about the CapEx that we had this base level of CapEx, we had the early stage, some of these major projects that we're very early stage in our thinking, and we kind of broke that level out. And then we had this policy new business broken out.
是的，Betty。我想你应该记得，当我们谈到资本支出时，我们划分了几个部分：一个是基础水平的CapEx；一个是早期阶段的一些大型项目，当时还处于非常初步的构想阶段，我们单独列出；另外还有政策驱动型的新业务，我们也把它单独分开。
And the intent there was to really reflect, frankly, the challenge of predicting the technology developments that we're putting into some of those projects, but then also the pace at which demand would pick up, the pace at which policy would evolve. And so a lot of uncertainty in how we mapped out that CapEx.
这么做的目的，坦率地说，是为了反映我们在预测相关技术发展、市场需求增长速度以及政策演变节奏时所面临的不确定性。因此，我们在规划CapEx时有很大的不确定性。
And so we put it in that separate bucket so that all of you would know that while we've got plans in place, they've got a lot more variables than maybe some of our traditional businesses and so a lot more uncertainty.
因此，我们把它单独放在一个分类中，这样大家就能清楚，虽然我们确实有规划，但与传统业务相比，它们包含更多变量，也带来更多不确定性。
That, I would say, on the carbon capture side of the equation, we've made great progress. The team has got a lot of additional opportunities in sight. I wouldn't say it's changed dramatically with the additional incentive or the parity. Our plans in the base case were to sequester them.
至于碳捕集这一部分，我认为我们已经取得了重大进展。团队已经发现了更多额外的机会。我不会说新的激励措施或补贴平衡带来了剧烈变化，因为我们在基准情境下的计划就是封存碳。
So bringing up the EOR piece of the equation doesn't materially change the plans that we had in place there. But I think really good continued progress and a lot of interest in that space. And of course, we're very advantaged with this large-scale end-to-end transportation system and storage system.
因此，引入提高采收率（EOR）的部分并不会实质性改变我们的既有计划。但总体而言，我们取得了很好的进展，且外部兴趣浓厚。当然，我们在这一领域的优势非常突出，因为我们拥有大规模的端到端运输和存储系统。
I think the good news is the administration is really helping with permitting. We're anxious to get the Rose permit in place, and then we'll have -- continue to add more sites, particularly as states get primacy.
我认为一个利好消息是，政府正在积极推动审批流程。我们迫切希望拿到Rose项目的许可，随后我们将继续新增更多站点，尤其是在各州取得优先审批权之后。
So I think that business feels like it's in a good place and is on the front end of a growing demand profile for a technology in a carbon reduction opportunity that, frankly, in the portfolio, what could be done is some of the lowest cost in the country. So we feel good about that.
因此，我认为这项业务处于良好状态，并且正处于一个增长需求的前沿，而这种碳减排技术在我们的业务组合中属于全国最低成本的解决方案之一。对此我们感到非常有信心。
So I expect that will -- the spending that we had in that profile will -- it was an aggressive pace in the plan, and I expect we'll continue on that and aren't looking at a lot of big changes there.
因此，我预计我们在该领域的支出将保持原本激进的规划节奏，并会持续推进，不会有太大变化。
The blue hydrogen one, which is obviously a very large spin. That's a more challenge, as I said in my prepared remarks, not only from the fact that they've shortened the time to develop the industry. But it's a product that's got an alternative in the market today.
至于蓝氢项目，那显然是一笔非常大的投入。这更具挑战性，正如我在准备好的发言中提到的，难点不仅在于开发整个行业的时间被缩短了，还在于这种产品在市场上已经有替代品存在。
And so cost and the cost of production and the cost -- the price of the product is a big variable with respect to buyers and many buyers are working their way through that number. And I would tell you today, that's -- we haven't landed that.
因此，成本——包括生产成本和产品价格——对买家来说是一个重要变量，许多买家仍在评估这个因素。我要说的是，到目前为止，我们还没有敲定下来。
We haven't FID-ed it, and we're not going to until we've got secured off-takers so that we have a lot of confidence in the returns that we're going to generate. And so that one, we may say slip versus the original timing. It's a little early to tell, but that's, I think, is certainly a strong possibility.
我们尚未作出最终投资决定（FID），而且在确保签署长期购买协议、让我们对预期回报充满信心之前，我们也不会做出决定。因此，该项目的时间表可能会较原计划有所推迟。现在说还为时过早，但我认为这是一种非常可能的情况。
And then I'd say the -- to finish up on carbon capture piece of the equation, low-carbon data centers, as you all know, huge appetite in that space, we are uniquely positioned that if the hyperscalers want low carbon power and they want it in a expeditious time frame, we're really the only available option today.
然后我想补充一下，在碳捕集方面，低碳数据中心的需求非常强劲，大家都知道这一点。如果超大规模数据中心运营商需要低碳电力，并且希望在很短的时间内实现，我们实际上是目前唯一能够满足的选择。
And so we'll see how that plays out. I think there is some talk now of maybe gas first, unabated gas and then ultimately, decarbonization later. So that may end up slipping as well. We'll have to see how that piece of it matures. But the good news is we've got a proposition that's available for the market and are working with all the serious players there looking at building data centers.
所以我们拭目以待。我认为目前市场上有一些声音，可能会先选择天然气（未减排），然后在未来逐步实现脱碳。因此这一块可能也会出现推迟。我们需要观察它的发展情况。但好消息是，我们已经有一个可供市场采用的解决方案，并且正在与所有认真投入数据中心建设的主要参与者合作。
And then finally, I would just say on the lithium side of the equation, we're continuing to work the lithium technology piece of the equation, very focused on getting that cost down and making sure that when we bring that on to market, that from a cost of supply standpoint, we are very competitive, including competing with the Chinese, and that work is going on. That may take longer than we had anticipated just to get our costs down. So that's how that portfolio is shaping up.
最后，我想谈谈锂业务。我们正在持续推进锂技术的开发，重点是降低成本，确保当我们进入市场时，从供应成本角度看，我们具备很强的竞争力，包括与中国企业竞争。这项工作正在进行中，但可能需要比预期更长的时间才能把成本降下来。这就是目前该业务组合的进展情况。
But again, I would just emphasize, we recognize that when we talked about it as part of the plan and the reason why we broke that capital out so you could see less certainty in that spend profile. Everything is still -- I think we still see good value propositions there. But as I said in my prepared remarks, these things don't all move in a straight line.
但我还是要强调，当初我们将其纳入计划并单独列出资本支出的原因，就是让大家看到这里的不确定性更高。我认为目前这些业务依然有很好的价值主张。但正如我在准备发言中所说，这些事情的发展并不会是一条直线。
And so my suspicion is we'll see some of that moving around a little bit. Too early to tell exactly what that looks like, but as we update that and when we get into the plan update in December, I would expect to give you some more details on that.
因此，我的判断是，这些业务中有一些可能会出现一定的波动。现在还很难确切地说会是什么样子，但等到12月我们更新计划时，我预计会给大家提供更多细节。
Operator
The next question is from Paul Cheng of Scotiabank.
下一个问题来自Scotiabank的Paul Cheng。
Yim Chuen Cheng
Exxon has always been a great technology company. And in your prepared remarks, you're talking about how the $18 billion of the cost saving target by 2030 and new technology may be able to bring in more opportunity and beyond that.
Exxon一直都是一家出色的技术型公司。在你的准备发言中，你提到到2030年实现180亿美元的成本节约目标，以及新技术可能带来更多的机会和突破。
So from that standpoint, I mean, two of the biggest rapidly advanced technology is AI and robotic. And so can you help us understand that where are the biggest opportunities for Exxon in those two areas and how it will change your workflow or processes or your ability?
从这个角度来看，目前发展最快的两项技术是人工智能（AI）和机器人。那么，你能否帮我们理解一下，Exxon在这两个领域的最大机会在哪里？它们会如何改变你们的工作流程、业务过程或能力？
I mean you'll be able to do things that you previously would not be able to do. And that how much is the potential incremental benefit cost synergy or the efficiency gains beyond what you already built in into your current target that you could see potentially that is out there? And why that you think Exxon is better than others in the oil industry be able to really take advantage of that?
也就是说，你们将能够做到以前无法做到的事情。那么，这可能带来的额外收益、成本协同效应或效率提升，相比你们当前目标之外的潜力有多大？为什么你认为Exxon比石油行业中的其他公司更能充分利用这些机会？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Thank you, Paul. You've touched on obviously a very topical technology subject. And frankly, the way that we've reorganized has really put us in a great position to take advantage of that new technology with a centralized technology organization and an organization that has information technology married with the other traditional forms of technology. There's very close collaboration amongst that whole group. So we're taking a very consistent approach across technology vectors as we think about them across the whole company.
好的，谢谢你，Paul。你确实提到了一个非常热门的技术话题。坦率地说，我们的组织重组让我们在这方面处于非常有利的位置。我们建立了一个集中化的技术组织，将信息技术与传统技术相结合，并且在这个团队中实现了非常紧密的协作。因此，我们正在公司层面以高度一致的方法来推动这些技术方向。
One thing that we're doing, I think, that differentiates us and will give us an advantage in this space is a corporate-wide ERP solution, where historically, our company had very fragmented systems across the different businesses that we have established over the years. We have been in the process of converting all that into a corporate-wide ERP system coming up with a consistent data architecture.
我认为有一件事情使我们与众不同，并将在这个领域为我们带来优势，那就是企业范围的ERP解决方案。过去，我们的公司在不同业务部门中使用的系统非常分散。而我们目前正在将所有这些系统整合为一个企业级ERP系统，建立统一的数据架构。
So we will have a platform that makes all of our data across the entire corporation and all of our historical data basically available for use in AI-type applications. I think we're going to have a systems construct that is very much aligned with what AI needs to truly make a difference at a corporate level. And I think we're going to have access to a data -- a set of data that is far beyond what any other company in industry has access to.
这样一来，我们将拥有一个平台，使整个公司范围内的所有数据以及历史数据都能够用于AI类应用。我认为，我们的系统架构将高度契合AI在企业层面真正发挥作用所需的条件。而且我们能够获得的数据范围远远超出行业内其他公司所能接触的。
So I think those will be two enduring advantages that will help us take advantage of the technology to find new and better ways of doing things. I will tell you that in this space, it's very early on the technology curve. We've spent a lot of time talking about how best to, in this early stage where resources are limited, prioritize the work that we're doing in AI.
我认为这将成为我们长期的两大优势，帮助我们利用AI技术找到全新的、更优的工作方式。当然，现在这项技术仍处于曲线的早期阶段。我们花了大量时间讨论，在这一资源有限的早期阶段，如何确定AI工作的优先级。
We have taken -- we have put the cost efficiency side as a second priority. We understand it's an important one, and it will deliver value, but we think a bigger value lever is frankly on the effectiveness side of the equation. So we're looking better at how we can take advantage of AI to, frankly, make the products that we make at much a lower cost and with much better performance parameters, find oil cheaper, you can just kind of go through the list of things that we do to produce the products that we make.
我们把成本效率放在了第二优先级。我们理解它很重要，也会带来价值。但我们认为更大的价值杠杆在于“效果”这一方面。我们正在研究如何利用AI，以更低的成本、更好的性能参数来生产我们的产品，以更低的成本找到石油，诸如此类。你可以想象我们整个价值链上的工作，AI都能发挥作用。
We think there are, coupled with this data that I talked about, huge opportunities to improve upon that. That will be the first order of business. Obviously, as we implement these things, we're finding efficiencies. But I would tell you, in the first stage of this, the efficiencies we find is to free our people up from doing a lot of lower value work and allow them to focus on higher value work so we can bring more value to the bottom line, and that's kind of where we're at in that journey.
结合我刚才提到的数据，我们认为这里蕴藏着巨大的改进机会。这将是首要任务。当然，在实施过程中我们也在找到效率提升。但我想说，在第一阶段，这些效率更多地体现在让员工摆脱低价值工作，转而专注于高价值工作，从而为公司带来更大价值。这正是我们当前所处的发展阶段。
But we recognize it will be an evolution. We're at the early stage of that evolution. We're being very thoughtful about how we approach this, and we're doing it on a corporate-wide basis so that we're making sure that we take those limited resources and put them on the highest value opportunity set. Thanks for the question.
但我们也清楚，这是一个逐步演进的过程，我们目前还处于早期阶段。我们正在非常审慎地规划方法，并在公司层面推进，以确保有限资源被投放到最高价值的机会领域。谢谢你的问题。
Operator
The next question is from Biraj Borkhataria with RBC.
下一个问题来自RBC的Biraj Borkhataria。
Biraj Borkhataria
Just a quick one on the corporate cost guidance. Just noticed over the last few quarters, it's been creeping up with the 2025 run rate looks like it's about double 2024 levels. Just if you could help me understand what is driving that increase and how we should think about it into 2026, that would be really helpful.
我有一个关于公司费用指引的简短问题。我注意到在过去几个季度中，费用水平逐步上升，2025年的运行水平看起来大约是2024年的两倍。能否帮我们理解一下是什么因素推动了这一增长？另外我们该如何看待2026年的情况？这会非常有帮助。
James R. Chapman
Yes, Biraj, it's Jim. Thanks for the question. That -- the expense line you're referring to is driven, I think, largely in 2025 by the very large slate of new projects we have coming online, which, as Darren has just walked through, is very much on track, on schedule and on budget.
好的，Biraj，这里是Jim，谢谢你的提问。你提到的这条费用线，2025年增长的主要原因在于我们将有大量新项目投产。正如Darren刚才所说，这些项目的进展完全符合计划，按时且在预算范围内推进。
The additional item there would be in DD&A where, of course, this year versus last, we would expect a higher level of noncash DD&A given the full year of Pioneer in our numbers, and given the growth in our production volume and the same -- very same new projects.
另一个因素是折旧与摊销（DD&A）。今年与去年相比，我们预计会有更高水平的非现金折旧摊销，因为Pioneer的全年数据已纳入财报，加上产量增长以及这些同样的新项目的贡献。
So I think to the extent going into 2026, we will revisit that as part of our corporate plan in the fourth quarter. But to the extent additional new projects, which will be more marginal next year compared to this, and increased production, which will drive that DD&A, we'd expect continued increase in line with our activity set and production level.
因此，我认为在进入2026年时，我们会在第四季度的公司规划中重新审视这一点。但考虑到明年新增项目会比今年边际化一些，而产量增长仍将推动DD&A，我们预计费用仍将随业务活动和产量水平而继续增加。
That said, an offset to our expenses is always our success in continuing on our path of realizing structural cost savings. This year to date, we've added $1.4 billion to that total. We expect to continue that to get to our $18 billion target by 2030 off a 2019 basis, and we see that as effective in offsetting some of the increased expense levels, which is largely activity driven.
不过，我们始终能够通过实现结构性成本节约来抵消部分费用增长。今年迄今，我们已在节约总额上再增加14亿美元。我们预计将继续推进这一进程，以在2030年实现相较2019年的180亿美元目标。这被视为抵消活动驱动型费用增长的有效手段。
Darren W. Woods
Yes, I would add to that. If you look at the -- in 2019, our cash OpEx and look at where we're at today, ex-energy cost and ex- production taxes, we're actually still lower than we were in 2019, our operating expenses. So we've offset all the inflation and all the growth that we put into the business with the savings that we've been driving here since that time. So I'm sure anybody else could give you the same track record that we've delivered in that space.
是的，我想补充一点。如果你比较2019年的现金运营支出与我们今天的情况，剔除能源成本和生产税，我们的运营支出实际上仍低于2019年的水平。换句话说，我们通过自那以来持续推动的节约，完全抵消了通胀以及业务扩张带来的成本增长。我相信很少有其他公司能在这一领域展现出我们这样的业绩记录。
Operator
The next question is from Jean Ann Salisbury with Bank of America.
下一个问题来自Bank of America的Jean Ann Salisbury。
Jean Ann Salisbury
Since Liberation Day, there has been a massive influx of interest in U.S. LNG contracting. And it looks like many more U.S. projects may move forward versus initially anticipated. Do you view this as a structural shift in the market? And does it affect, I guess, either your interest in getting into more U.S. LNG or the time line for your pre-FID international LNG projects?
自“解放日”以来，美国LNG合约兴趣大幅上升。看起来美国会有更多项目推进，超过最初预期。你认为这是市场的结构性转变吗？它是否会影响你们对进入更多美国LNG项目的兴趣，或是影响你们尚未最终投资决策（pre-FID）的国际LNG项目的时间表？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. The short answer is no. I think the way I kind of think about this is the tariffs and one -- frankly, the countries that sign up are going to sign up for energy that meets the demand for their economies. And unless the tariff agreements result in a step change in economic activity, the demand that's out there around the world is going to be driven by the fundamental base economy and economic activity.
是的，简短的回答是不会。我认为这里要看的还是关税问题。坦率地说，各国签署合约是为了满足其经济所需的能源。除非关税协议导致经济活动出现根本性变化，否则全球能源需求仍将由基本的经济运行和活动所驱动。
And so this is -- the way I'm thinking about it is just how does that demand get met and from what sources of supply does it come. And so I'm not sure that -- and we haven't seen all the details of it. So haven't done all the math here, but my initial reaction is what we're going to do is see trade flows maybe change, but ultimately, the world is round and there's still a level of demand that has to be met, and there's still the sources of supply that can meet it.
所以我的看法是，这只是需求如何得到满足，以及供应将来自何处的问题。我不认为——而且我们还没看到所有细节，也没完全做完测算——但我的第一反应是，可能会看到贸易流向发生一些变化。但归根结底，世界是一个整体，需求总得被满足，供应的来源也依然存在。
So I don't know that it changes the rate or pace of how much new supply comes on, given the demand that's out there. For us, in particular, we tend to contract up the sales for the capacity that we're bringing on.
因此，我不认为这会改变新增供应上线的速度或节奏，考虑到全球的需求。对我们而言，我们通常会在新增产能上线之前就签订销售合同。
And so if you look at what we're doing in Papua or Mozambique, as we develop those projects, where at the same time, our LNG organization is securing sales outlets for those so that when we FID those projects, we have secured sales and we -- that are linked to crude, so we've got a good understanding of what the economics is going to look like and what the OpEx is going to look like. And so these short-term things don't really impact how we think about the long-term fundamentals in these long-term investments that we're making.
以巴布亚和莫桑比克项目为例，我们在开发这些项目的同时，LNG团队也在落实销售渠道。因此在最终投资决策（FID）时，我们已经锁定了销售合同，而且这些合同与原油价格挂钩，这样我们就能清楚地了解未来的经济效益和运营成本。因此，这些短期因素并不会真正影响我们对这些长期投资项目的基本面看法。
Operator
The next question is from Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.
下一个问题来自TD Cowen的Jason Gabelman。
Jason Daniel Gabelman
I wanted to ask on Guyana production. And at the corporate update in December, you talked about lower production and capacity due to production falling off plateau levels. Can you remind us when we should start to see that production plateau start to come off? And then also remind us activities that you're pursuing to arrest those declines that we should be on the lookout for?
我想问一下关于圭亚那的产量。在去年12月的公司更新会上，你们提到由于产量将从平台期下降，生产和产能会有所降低。能否提醒我们，什么时候会开始看到产量从平台期下降？另外，你们正在采取哪些措施来减缓这种下降趋势？有哪些值得我们关注的？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Yes. I know this has been something that we've gone back and forth on. The organization, what we said was we're going to have 1.7 million barrels per day of gross capacity by 2030. And that we thought our production would be about 1.3 million, that was reflecting the best estimates of kind of how declines are working and the steps that are being taken.
是的，是的。我知道这个问题我们来回讨论过几次。我们公司当时说，到2030年，我们将拥有170万桶/日的总产能。而我们预计的产量大约是130万桶/日，这反映了我们对产量下降趋势以及应对措施的最佳估算。
I would just tell you as a planning basis, based on our experience in history, that's a reasonable basis to project what we're going to see. But I would also tell you that there is nobody on that Guyana team that will be satisfied without not keeping our boats full. So there's a lot of work around infill drilling and how do you -- optimization. And so -- and they're never going to completely offset the physical nature of depletion, but there's a lot of effort going into it.
我想说，作为规划基础，根据我们的历史经验，这是一个合理的预测依据。但我也要告诉你，圭亚那团队不会满足于油船不满载出航。所以，他们正在积极开展补钻和优化工作。虽然这些努力永远无法完全抵消资源枯竭的物理特性，但他们确实投入了大量精力来减缓这种影响。
And I say that to really, I guess, defer on answering the question, which is I don't know the answer to the question. We have a plan. We've shared that plan with you with respect to our production levels vis-a-vis the capacity, but the organization is looking for every opportunity they can to beat that. And frankly, I'm betting on them.
所以我这么说，实际上也是在回避直接回答你的问题——因为我不知道确切答案。我们确实有一个计划，并且已经和大家分享过关于产量与产能的对应关系。但团队正在寻找一切机会去超越这个计划。坦率地讲，我对他们充满信心。
Operator
The next question is from Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.
下一个问题来自JPMorgan的Arun Jayaram。
Arun Jayaram
I actually have a follow-up and a little bit of a detailed question on Guyana as well. Looking at the data, both Liza 2 and Payara have recently been running around 270 kbd per day versus nameplates at 220 and 250. So I was wondering if you could talk about some of the debottlenecking efforts you've been doing there and if you view that as a sustainable run rate?
我想再跟进一下，也有一个关于圭亚那的细节问题。从数据来看，Liza 2和Payara最近的产量都在每天27万桶左右，而设计产能分别是22万和25万桶。能否谈谈你们在那里的瓶颈解除工作？你们是否认为这种运行水平是可持续的？
And maybe just a follow-up is we have seen output at the Liza 1 ship kind of come down more recently in that 130 to 140 range versus, call it, 160 kbd in 2024, and thoughts on an infill program to maybe sustain the rate back at full capacity there?
另外，作为补充问题，我们注意到Liza 1最近的产量下降到了13万至14万桶/天，而2024年时大约是16万桶/天。你们是否考虑通过补钻计划来让它恢复到满产水平？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. So I think on the broader question around the effort the organization goes through to really make sure we're taking advantage of the capital that we put in. Obviously, have a design basis, you work through what you think it's capable of delivering.
好的。我认为从更宏观的角度来说，公司一直在努力确保我们能够最大化地利用投入的资本。显然，我们有一个设计基准，并会根据它来判断设施的产能。
And then as you get it up and running, you've got our technology organization, operations organization, all very focused on making sure that we're maximizing the value of the capital that we put in the ground there without compromising any of the necessary integrity and safety parameters and they've done a really good job of that.
当设施投产运行后，我们的技术部门和运营部门会全力确保在不牺牲必要的完整性和安全性的前提下，最大化资本价值。他们在这方面做得非常出色。
We frankly do that with all our facilities around the world. I think with the concentrated, the focused technology organization that we now have, that's a big aid in doing that.
坦率地说，我们在全球所有设施中都这样做。而如今我们拥有了集中的、专注的技术组织，这对实现这一点帮助极大。
So my view is we're going to continue to see that with every new project that comes on. I would also tell you that as we find those debottlenecking opportunities and we think they're applicable to the next project, we build that into the basis, so that we have a clear understanding of what capital is needed to deliver on the volume.
所以我认为，今后每一个新项目都会延续这种做法。我还要补充的是，当我们在现有项目中发现瓶颈解除的机会，并认为它们适用于下一个项目时，我们会把它们纳入设计基准中，这样我们就能更清楚地了解实现目标产量所需的资本投入。
And so we're continuing to update the basis -- the investment and the design based on what we've learned through the debottlenecking. And then obviously, you've got new kit and the team gets started at it again, and we debottleneck.
因此，我们会根据瓶颈解除所获得的经验，不断更新投资和设计基准。然后，随着新设备的投产，团队会再次投入其中，继续优化。
So in theory, you ought to see less capacity creep with time because we keep building that in. But what -- the counter set to that is the innovation of the organization and their desire to continue to demonstrate maximum use of the capital. And so those two are kind of in competition with one another.
理论上来说，随着时间推移，你应该会看到产能“超设计”的幅度减少，因为我们会将经验不断内化到设计中。但另一方面，公司内部的创新精神和不断追求最大化资本利用的动力，也会推动持续的优化。二者之间形成了一种竞争。
And again, I would bet on our organization winning that race and continuing to deliver debottlenecking opportunities as we go forward. But we give you guys the design basis, that's our best estimate. And then we hope for the upside based on the capability and quality of the folks who are getting after that every hour of every day.
我依然愿意相信我们的团队会在这场竞赛中获胜，今后继续带来瓶颈解除的机会。我们提供给大家的设计基准是我们最优的估算，而额外的潜力则寄托在团队每天不懈努力所展现的能力和素质上。
With respect to -- I don't have any data on Liza 1, so I can't answer that specifically. I mean, all I could say is on a macro basis. Our expectation is you see some of that with natural decline. That's one of the reasons why we've got this difference out in 2030. And so the teams are always working at development plans. Nobody is satisfied to have spare capital on the ground.
至于Liza 1，我没有具体数据，所以无法直接回答。宏观而言，我们预期产量会出现一些自然递减，这也是我们2030年产量预测与产能存在差距的原因之一。因此，团队一直在制定开发计划。没有人会满足于让已投入的资本闲置。
So there's a lot of work going on to make sure that we maximize the utilization of the kit we've already invested in. That's the cheapest -- that's the highest-margin barrel is the ones that you bring online with capital that's already in the ground.
因此，大家都在努力确保最大化利用已投资的设备。毕竟，成本最低、利润率最高的桶油，永远是那些通过既有资本带来的产量。
Operator
The next question is from Ryan Todd of Piper Sandler.
下一个问题来自Piper Sandler的Ryan Todd。
Ryan M. Todd
Maybe a question on the chemical side. Your earnings have been fairly resilient to the bottom here, even with lower margins sequentially this quarter. Can you talk about what has worked well, including the contribution that you're seeing from the China Chemical Complex? And then maybe your thoughts on where the chemical outlook goes from here?
我想问一个关于化工业务的问题。即使本季度环比利润率下降，你们的收益依然在周期底部表现出较强韧性。能否谈谈哪些因素起了积极作用，包括中国化工综合体的贡献？以及你对未来化工行业前景的看法？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. Well, I mean I'll start at the back end and work forward. I think clearly, really good demand for chemical products around the world, but a lot of supply chasing that demand, which has led to these very challenging margins that you see kind of everywhere and that are challenging companies in the industry.
好的。我先从后面的问题说起。显然，全球对化工产品的需求非常旺盛，但有大量供应追逐这部分需求，导致行业普遍面临非常艰难的利润率，这对所有公司都是一种挑战。
That my expectation is going to be with us for longer than anybody would like. And we've got to basically -- either capacity has got to come off, which we're seeing some of that, but that's usually slow to happen. And then demand has got to grow. And if it grows faster, we'll get out of the hole that we're in that much faster.
我预计这种情况会持续比任何人希望的更久。要么产能得退出（我们确实看到一些，但通常进展缓慢），要么需求必须增长。如果需求增长更快，我们就能更快地走出困境。
Frankly, we don't count on that as a strategy. And we've never banked on calling the market as a basis for running the business. Our focus has really been on making sure that when we're in these bottom-of-cycle conditions that we've built the business and we've invested in the projects that make us successful. I think what you're seeing today with our results, while not where we'd like them to be, I think we feel pretty good about where they are given the margin environment that we're in and vis-a-vis our competition.
坦率地说，我们并不把这种情况作为战略依赖，也从未依靠“押注市场走势”来经营业务。我们的重点是确保在周期低谷时，公司依然具备成功的基础和项目投资。从目前的业绩来看，虽然并未达到我们理想的水平，但考虑到当前的利润率环境以及与竞争对手的对比，我们对现状还是感到满意的。
So -- and I think what's driven that is a lot of focus on the design of the kit that we put in place, the feed flexibility that we have and the ability to optimize feedstock to maximize the margin on any one day. It's obviously the locations that we've picked and the structural advantages associated with feed availability.
推动这一表现的关键因素包括：设备设计的精心布局、原料灵活性，以及每天都能优化原料结构以最大化利润率的能力。同时，我们选址得当，在原料供应上有结构性优势。
It's the high-value products that we have been purposely focused on and growing and continuing to upgrade production to get to the high-value products, that's a huge driver here. And then we've taken a ton of structural costs out of the business. Very, very focused on making sure that we're spending only what we have to, to continue to grow the value and to move the product.
另一个重要驱动力是高附加值产品。我们一直专注于这一方向，不断扩大产能，并持续升级生产以提升产品价值。同时，我们大幅降低了结构性成本，严格控制支出，确保每一笔投入都直接用于提升价值与推动产品流通。
And so those things -- and we worked on that even when margins were very high, I can tell you that at the time the business was very focused on getting more efficient with a view that, ultimately, the market is going to come back around, will end up in a long period. And so those things are all paying off hugely.
这些努力我们在利润率高企时就已经在做了。当时业务就非常注重效率提升，因为我们知道市场最终会回落，进入较长的低迷周期。而这些工作如今正在发挥巨大回报。
And it's a tremendous credit to the people in that business, their ability to upgrade the feedstock and upgrade the products to high- value products and do it at lower cost. That's a real hat trick there that a lot of organizations struggle to accomplish, but the chemical business that we've got and the people running have done an excellent job in that space.
这要归功于我们化工业务团队。他们能够在降低成本的同时，将原料和产品不断升级到高附加值水平。这是很多公司难以做到的“三重奏”，但我们的团队在这方面表现非常出色。
With respect to China, I would just say we're still in the early days of starting that up. We feel good about the production. And as I said earlier, it's come on real well, and we're basically selling into that market. But that will be -- we're -- we still haven't got it running up at full rates.
至于中国项目，我想说我们还处于起步阶段。我们对当前产量感到满意，正如我之前提到的，项目运行得不错，基本上产品都在销售到本地市场。但目前还没有完全达到满负荷运行。
And when you got that kind of capital in the ground, you need to get full utilization. So I would say that's a continuing journey. And our expectation is by the end of this year and getting into next year, we'll then be up and running full and that will be contributing at its full potential.
在投入如此巨额资本后，我们必须实现满负荷利用。所以这仍是一段持续推进的过程。我们预计到今年年底或明年年初，项目将全面投产，并充分发挥其全部潜力。
Operator
The next question is from Alastair Syme with Citi.
下一个问题来自Citi的Alastair Syme。
Alastair Roderick Syme
I wonder if I could return to the very first question on M&A because it's quite an important comment, I think you made. I mean, I take your point that volume is not a criteria. Do you feel limited by scale? I'm trying to ascertain whether you're sort of talking about bolt-on transactions or something larger in your perspective.
我想回到第一个关于并购的问题，因为我觉得你之前的评论非常重要。我理解你说的“交易量不是评估标准”。但你是否觉得受到规模的限制？我想确认，你们是倾向于“小型补强式并购”，还是也在考虑更大规模的交易？
Darren W. Woods
Yes. No, scale, obviously, is important, but it's got to be the right kind of scale. And I think the point I was always try to make is, if you're going after volume for scale and you're paying for that volume, then you really aren't doing your shareholders, you're not creating any real advantage and you're not creating any value for your shareholders.
是的，规模显然很重要，但必须是“正确的规模”。我想强调的一点是，如果只是为了追求规模而去买入产量，并且为此付出高昂代价，那么实际上并没有为股东创造真正的优势，也没有创造价值。
And so what may help from a scale standpoint, if you can leverage, integrate that organization into your existing one and find significant efficiencies. But beyond that, in our view, that always should be minor to the opportunity set to actually create some unique value, and that's really what we're focused on.
当然，从规模的角度看，如果你能将收购的组织融入到现有体系中，并获得显著的效率提升，那是有帮助的。但在我们看来，这仍然是次要因素。真正重要的是，这笔交易是否能创造独特的价值。这才是我们关注的核心。
So I'm not -- I don't want to discount the value of scale. I just think from a value creation standpoint, you often pay for that. And so what we're really looking to do is, say, where can we uniquely contribute so that what we bring to the opportunity results in an outcome for both sets of shareholders that was more than either one could achieve independently. That's, in my mind, the magic of successful acquisitions and what we're looking for.
我并不是要否认规模的价值，只是从“价值创造”的角度来看，规模往往需要付出代价。因此我们真正寻找的，是那些能让我们独特能力发挥作用的机会。这样，我们带入的价值能让双方股东获得比各自独立行动更好的结果。在我看来，这才是成功并购的“魔力”，也是我们在寻求的方向。
非常好的评论。
James R. Chapman
Alastair, just to add to that, a lot of interest in this topic this morning. We set out, as you know, in December a plan through 2030 to grow earnings $20 billion and cash flow of $30 billion at flat price constant margin. Just for the avoidance of doubt, that plan doesn't reflect and it certainly doesn't rely on any M&A. So this is certainly an opportunistic additional category.
Alastair，我补充一点。今天早上这个话题大家都很关注。你知道，我们在去年12月提出了一个到2030年的计划：在油价和利润率不变的情况下，实现盈利增长200亿美元、现金流增长300亿美元。需要强调的是，这个计划并不包含，也完全不依赖任何并购。所以并购对我们来说完全是一个“机会型的额外选项”。
Darren W. Woods
Yes, good point, Jim.
是的，Jim，说得很好。
Operator
We have time for one more question. Our final question will be from Lloyd Byrne from Jefferies.
我们还有时间回答最后一个问题。本次最后一个问题来自Jefferies的Lloyd Byrne。
Francis Lloyd Byrne
Darren, I was wondering if you can just run through kind of how you're thinking about North American gas today? I mean you have a lot of vertical integration already. And maybe it goes back to an initial question, but would power ever fit into that? And then maybe just any comment on Golden Pass taking first commissioning gas would be great.
Darren，我想请你谈一下你们今天对北美天然气的整体看法？我知道你们已经在纵向整合方面做了很多。那电力业务是否可能在其中发挥作用？另外，能否评论一下Golden Pass首次投产天然气的进展？
Darren W. Woods
Yes, sure. Thank you, Lloyd. I think again, starting with the end of your question, Golden Pass, I feel really good about how that organization, that venture has recovered from the bankruptcy and the progress that they're making on the construction, and we still expect them to deliver first gas sometime in the back end of this year or early next year. So that's kind of in that border at year-end.
好的，谢谢你，Lloyd。我先从你最后一个问题说起。Golden Pass，我对那个合资企业在破产后恢复过来的表现，以及目前建设方面取得的进展感到非常满意。我们仍然预计它将在今年年底或明年年初实现首次投产天然气，大概就在年终这个时间段。
So -- but I feel really good about that progress and how that group has kind of rallied around and come together and recovered from the challenge of the bankruptcy. So I don't think we've changed any of our outlooks with respect to what we've communicated there before.
我对这一进展感到很有信心，那支团队很好地团结在一起，从破产的挑战中恢复过来。因此，我们此前关于该项目的预期并没有发生变化。
More broadly, on your question about power, we're not -- that's, in my mind, developing a demand sync for gas is not really a value driver for us. And if you look at our capability set, I don't think when we look at what we do and what we do well and what we can do uniquely, power generation isn't on that list.
至于你提到的电力业务，从更广泛的角度看，我认为为天然气开发一个需求出口并不是我们的价值驱动因素。如果你看我们的能力组合，在我们所擅长的、能独特发挥优势的领域里，发电并不在其中。
We're certainly capable of doing it and in fact, we've done it all over the world in many of our facilities to enable the things that we do that -- where we think we create a unique value. So not -- we're not interested in the power gen business.
当然，我们完全有能力做发电，事实上我们在全球很多设施里都做过，以支持我们的核心业务，并在其中创造独特价值。但发电业务本身并不是我们感兴趣的领域。
We have talked about low carbon data centers and having a power aspect to that. That's really an enabler to the carbon capture and storage. We're interested in data centers, not from the power standpoint, but for our ability to decarbonize.
我们确实谈到过低碳数据中心，并且其中涉及到电力因素。但这实际上是碳捕集与封存（CCS）的一个支撑手段。我们对数据中心的兴趣不是因为电力，而是因为我们在减碳方面的能力。
And to the extent that these hyperscalers want decarbonized power and that was really -- when we introduced that in December and started talking about it, was a function of a stated commitment by many of the hyperscalers to reduce their emissions, while at the same time trying to aggressively grow the data centers.
而且，很多大型科技公司（hyperscalers）都明确承诺要降低排放，同时还要大力扩张数据中心。因此，当我们去年12月首次提出低碳数据中心时，正是基于他们这一承诺。
And so with that construct or that objective statements, we thought we could bring a solution set that would facilitate that and do it at the lowest cost available in the marketplace today and in the time frame that they were looking at.
基于这一背景和目标，我们认为可以提供一套解决方案，帮助他们以当今市场上最低的成本，并在他们期望的时间框架内实现目标。
That's why we are interested in the low-carbon data centers and obviously, powers a piece of that. But if there's no decarbonization that goes along with that or no potential decarbonization that goes along with that, I wouldn't see us getting into that business.
这就是我们对低碳数据中心感兴趣的原因。显然，其中涉及电力因素。但如果其中没有减碳的环节或潜力，我认为我们不会进入这个业务。
James R. Chapman
All right. Thanks, everybody, for joining the call and thanks for your questions. We'll post a transcript of this call to the Investors section of our website by early next week. That concludes today's call. I hope everyone has a good weekend.
好的。感谢大家参加本次电话会议，也感谢各位的提问。我们将在下周初把本次电话会议的文字记录发布到公司官网的投资者专区。今天的电话会议到此结束。祝大家周末愉快。
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Refer To：《2014-02-28 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》。 To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Berkshire’s gain in net worth during 2013 was $34.2 billion. That gain was after our deducting $1.8 billion of charges – ...2015-02-27 Warren Buffett.Intrinsic Value
INTRINSIC VALUE 内在价值 Now let’s focus on a term that I mentioned earlier and that you will encounter in future annual reports. 现在让我们聚焦一个我此前提到、你在未来年度报告中也会遇到的术语。 Intrinsic value is an all-important concept that offers the only logical approach to ...2023-09-16 Satya Nadella.Why we need re-founders
Refer To：《Why we need re-founders》。 Chapter 1: Do you want to be CEO of Microsoft? 第1章：你想当 Microsoft 的 CEO 吗？ SATYA NADELLA: If you’d asked me even the day before or the hour before, I would have said, “Hey, there’s a chance, but I don’t know who was ...2024-03-13 Satya Nadella.AI, chip shortage, empathy, and poetry
Refer To：《Satya Nadella.AI, chip shortage, empathy, and poetry》。 Nicolai Tangen: Hi there. I’ve just had the most incredible experience of my life, having been allowed to interview Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, which is now the most valuable ...