2025-10-03 Jeff Bezos.Italian Tech Week 2025
Read the full transcript of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos in conversation with John Elkann, Chairman of Ferrari and Stellantis at Italian Tech Week 2025, Oct 3, 2025.
Welcome to Turin
欢迎来到都灵
JOHN ELKANN: We have arrived. Thank you, Jeff, for being here in Turin. Last time was 2017 and a lot has happened since.
JOHN ELKANN：我们到了。谢谢你，Jeff，来到都灵。上次是2017年，这期间发生了很多事情。
JEFF BEZOS: Yeah, for sure.
JEFF BEZOS：是的，确实如此。
JOHN ELKANN: So what you’re seeing today, we really started in 2016 and it was very much driven by trying to see how we could in Italy and in Turin, be more entrepreneurial and be more attuned with technologies of today and of tomorrow.
JOHN ELKANN：所以你今天所看到的一切，实际上是我们在2016年就开始做的，核心是探索我们如何在意大利、在都灵变得更具创业精神，并与当下和未来的技术更加契合。
And since then, if you look over the last decade in Europe, you’ve had investments going from $45 billion into the tech ecosystem to $425 billion. If you look at the programs which we’ve been involved, like Vento came out from that 2016 period, we’ve now invested in many companies with Italian founders in Italy, and outside of which 1B has just been acquired by Amazon. So thank you.
从那以后，如果你回顾过去十年欧洲的情况，投入科技生态的投资从450亿美元增长到了4250亿美元。再看我们参与的项目，比如源自2016年那段时间的Vento，我们现在已经投资了许多由意大利创业者创立的公司，既有在意大利的，也有海外的，其中1B刚刚被Amazon收购。所以谢谢你们。
JEFF BEZOS: Thank you.
JEFF BEZOS：谢谢。
JOHN ELKANN: And the event that was started in 2018, 100 people. Now we have 15,000 and we could have had more, but we’re constrained by capacity. And this has very much been driven by [Dial] and all the team that have made it possible to be here today.
JOHN ELKANN：还有这个在2018年启动的活动，当时只有100人。现在我们有15000人，而且本可以更多，只是受制于场地容量。能走到今天，很大程度要感谢[Dial]以及让这一切成为可能的整个团队。
JEFF BEZOS: Amazing, amazing. Very cool.
JEFF BEZOS：太棒了，太棒了。非常酷。
The Power of Optimism
乐观的力量
JOHN ELKANN: All of this to say that there’s a huge amount of optimism. The president of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen was very strong about why it’s important to be optimistic. What do you think?
JOHN ELKANN：所有这些都说明了强烈的乐观情绪。European Commission主席Ursula von der Leyen非常强调为什么保持乐观很重要。你怎么看？
JEFF BEZOS: Well, first of all, I get all weak need around entrepreneurs. I just love entrepreneurs and I always have, like missionary entrepreneurs, people who are doing it because there’s something about the mission that they just can’t not do it.
JEFF BEZOS：嗯，首先，谈到创业者我就“腿软”。我就是热爱创业者，而且一直如此，尤其是那种“传教士式”的创业者——他们之所以去做，是因为使命感让他们非做不可。
They’re so passionate about it. And I’m guessing that this room is full of such people.
他们对此充满激情。而且我猜在座的就是这样的人满满一屋子。
And I think you should be very optimistic. In fact, entrepreneurs need to be optimistic almost to the point of delusion. You need to be right there. There’s this, you may remember the great John F. Kennedy speech about going to the moon and other things. He says, “We do these things not because they are easy, but because they are hard.”
而且我认为你们应该非常乐观。事实上，创业者的乐观几乎需要接近“妄想”的程度。你必须到达那个状态。你们可能还记得John F. Kennedy那篇关于登月等议题的伟大演讲。他说：“我们之所以做这些事，不是因为它们容易，而是因为它们困难。”
被难吸引，Attention Is All You Need。
But I’ve always thought that for entrepreneurs it should be a little different. “We do these things not because they are easy, but because we thought they were going to be easy.” So that’s a useful attitude for entrepreneurs.
但我一直认为，对创业者来说应该稍微不同：“我们之所以做这些事，不是因为它们容易，而是因为我们以为它们会很容易。”这种态度对创业者很有用。
And, you know, Europe, you hear these things about Europe that it’s not enough dynamism in Europe. There’s too many regulations in Europe. Let me assure you, there are plenty of regulations everywhere. And what you need is that can-do attitude, that entrepreneurial attitude. That’s what drives people to success. And Europe has all of the ingredients they need to be a dynamic, entrepreneurial, you know, just a huge success. And you can tell it just from the people in this room.
还有，关于欧洲，你会听到一些说法，说欧洲缺乏活力、监管太多。让我告诉你，到处都有足够多的监管。你真正需要的是那种“能做事”的态度、创业者的态度。这才是推动人们走向成功的动力。欧洲具备成为一个富有活力、充满创业精神并取得巨大成功所需的一切要素。从这个房间里的人就能看出来。
JOHN ELKANN: Do you agree?
JOHN ELKANN：你同意吗？
JEFF BEZOS: And of course, startup companies, small companies, thrive in moments of great and rapid change. Stability favors incumbents and rapid change favors small, dynamic, nimble startup companies. And so the world is so rapidly changing right now. There’s never been a better moment to be an entrepreneur. There has never been a better moment to be a startup company.
JEFF BEZOS：当然，初创公司、小公司在剧烈而快速的变革时期会蓬勃发展。稳定有利于既有玩家，而快速变化有利于小型、富有活力、灵活敏捷的初创公司。如今世界正以极快的速度变化，现在是成为创业者的最佳时刻，也是成为一家初创公司的最佳时刻。
Multiple Paths to Entrepreneurship
通往创业之路的多种路径
JOHN ELKANN: And if you think about entrepreneurs and startup companies, Amazon now is a very large company. We are involved with very large companies. And there’s this idea that if you want to be an entrepreneur, you should drop out from college, start your own company.
JOHN ELKANN：如果我们谈创业者和初创公司，Amazon现在是一家非常大的公司。我们也与许多大型公司打交道。社会上有一种观念：如果你想当创业者，就应该从大学辍学，自己办公司。
Whilst if I look at my own experience, luckily I did not drop out from college and start my own company when I was studying engineering here. And I ended up working for a very large company back then, which was General Electric, where I did learn how to work, where I had colleagues from many different places who had a lot to teach me.
而就我自己的经历而言，幸运的是我在这里学工程时并没有从大学辍学去创业。那时我去了一个非常大的公司工作，就是General Electric，在那里我学会了如何开展工作，也有来自不同背景的同事，他们教会了我许多东西。
And I was wondering if you had a different path than dropping out from college and starting your company. If there are multiple paths and if working for big companies is also not exciting. And within a large company, you could still be entrepreneurial.
所以我想知道，是否存在不同于大学辍学创业的路径？是否有多种路径？在大公司工作是否同样令人兴奋？而且在大型公司内部，你是否依然可以保持创业精神？
JEFF BEZOS: So there’s a lot packed in there. And I’ll tell you, my view on this is that it is possible to be 18, 19, 20 years old, drop out of college and be a great entrepreneur. And the world is, we have famous examples of that working, Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, et cetera. But these people are the exception.
JEFF BEZOS：这里面信息量很大。我的看法是，18、19、20岁从大学辍学然后成为伟大创业者是可能的。世界上也确实有成功的著名例子，比如Bill Gates、Mark Zuckerberg等。但这些人是例外。
I always advise to young people, you know, go work at a best practices company somewhere where you can learn a lot of basic fundamental things, how to hire really well, how to interview, et cetera. There’s a lot of stuff you would learn in a great company that will help you. And then you can still, there’s still lots of time to start a company after you have absorbed it increases your odds, in my opinion.
我总是建议年轻人，去一家“最佳实践”的公司工作，在那里你能学到许多基础而根本的东西，比如如何高质量地招聘、如何面试等等。在一家优秀公司里你能学到很多对你有帮助的内容。等你吸收消化之后再去创业也为时不晚，而且在我看来，这会提高你的成功概率。
I started Amazon when I was 30, not when I was 20. And I think that that extra 10 years of experience actually improved the odds that Amazon would succeed. So that would always be my…
我在30岁时创立了Amazon，而不是20岁。我认为多出来的那10年经验实际上提高了Amazon成功的几率。所以我一直会——
JOHN ELKANN: And you finished.
JOHN ELKANN：而且你大学毕业了。
JEFF BEZOS: I finished college and I enjoyed college and I think it’s been helpful to me. And then I went on and I worked for a really great company called D.E. Shaw & Co., where I learned a tremendous amount, tremendous amount there.
JEFF BEZOS：我大学毕业了，而且我很享受大学生活，我认为它对我帮助很大。之后我去了一家非常优秀的公司，叫D.E. Shaw & Co.，我在那里学到了非常多、非常多的东西。
And by the way, as you mentioned, when you’re inside a big company, you can be entrepreneurial. Big companies need mavericks. They need people to lift them up and make them see new things. And it’s up to the leadership of big companies, good companies, best practices companies, when they get larger, they defend their mavericks. They don’t eject them. They figure out how to support them and keep them driving change inside the company.
另外，正如你所说，在大公司内部你也可以保持创业精神。大公司需要“特立独行者”。他们需要有人把公司“拎起来”，让公司看到新事物。而当大公司、优秀公司、最佳实践的公司变大时，是否保护这些“特立独行者”，取决于领导层。他们不应把这些人排斥出去，而应想办法支持他们，让他们在公司内部持续推动变革。
Because really, most big companies get comfortable and the mavericks cause discomfort. And so it’s easy to keep them away and kind of drive them out, but you’ll lose so much that way. At Amazon and at Blue Origin, we’re very careful to keep our mavericks.
说真的，大多数大公司会变得“安逸”，而“特立独行者”会带来不适。因此把他们隔离开、甚至“劝退”是很容易的，但那样你会损失巨大。在Amazon和Blue Origin，我们非常谨慎地保留我们的“特立独行者”。
Opportunities Within Large Companies
大型公司内部的机会
JOHN ELKANN: And I think this is really important, Jeff, because what we’re trying to do here is show the future. Both from new companies who start, but companies also who transform and evolve. And being clear that working for our companies, for Amazon, for Stellantis, for Blue Origin, for Ferrari, for CNH, is exciting.
JOHN ELKANN：我认为这点非常重要，Jeff，因为我们在这里要展示的是未来——既包括新创公司，也包括转型与进化的公司。同时要明确，为我们的公司工作——为Amazon、Stellantis、Blue Origin、Ferrari、CNH工作——是令人兴奋的。
JEFF BEZOS: Gigantic opportunities inside those companies.
JEFF BEZOS：这些公司内部蕴藏着巨大的机会。
JOHN ELKANN: And you can also, on the back of that and the back of that experience, start companies that you would have had more difficulty in imagining if you started from scratch. And I think that’s important to share this experience with all of you.
JOHN ELKANN：而且基于这些经历，你还能去创办那些如果从零开始可能更难想象的公司。我认为把这样的经历分享给大家非常重要。
The Influence of Grandparents
祖辈的影响
And among the experiences that also I felt was important and being more personal, one of the similitudes that Jeff and I have is we have had the fortune of having a very loving family. And among a loving family, we had very strong relationships with our grandparents. And particularly we had grandfathers who had a big influence in what we did.
在我认为同样重要、也更为私人的经历中，我和 Jeff 的相似之处之一，是我们都很幸运拥有一个充满爱的家庭。在这样的家庭里，我们与祖父母的关系非常紧密。尤其是我们的外公或爷爷，对我们所做的事情产生了巨大影响。
So I had a grandfather. He was very young, 56 years old, and he spent a lot of time with us. And he really was able to do two things which have been very meaningful for me. On one side, always try and stimulate curiosity. And the way he would do that was always asking questions of what we think. And it’s quite rare that children get asked what they think. And in any different situation, if we go to a museum or if we meet someone, he’d always be interested and that stimulation of curiosity.
我有一位祖父。他很年轻，56 岁，常常和我们在一起。他真正做到了两点，对我意义重大。其一，他总是试图激发好奇心。而他的方法就是不断发问，询问我们的想法。孩子被问“你怎么看”的情况其实很少见。无论情境如何——去博物馆也好、遇见某个人也好——他总是充满兴趣，从而激发我们的好奇。
And the second thing is responsibility. Since very young, he really would want us to make choices. And choices could be like, he liked to watch movies, had a very, very short attention span. So if the movie wasn’t good, five minutes was gone. If you like, go half the way to the movie, that was success. And so we always had to choose the movie he would see.
第二点是责任。从很小的时候起，他就希望我们去做选择。比如他喜欢看电影，但注意力非常短。如果电影不好看，五分钟就走。如果能坚持到看一半，那就算成功。因此，我们总要为他挑选要看的电影。
And so going from those small responsibilities to bigger responsibilities like taking care of something that he thought was important or a guest that he had and that trust in us and that sense of responsibility are things that stayed very much with me. And I know you also had incredible grandparents and incredible grandfather. What stays as of today from him, from what he taught you?
于是，从这些小责任延伸到更大的责任，比如照看他认为重要的东西，或者招待他的客人。那份对我们的信任与责任感，一直留在我心中。我知道你也有很了不起的祖父母和祖父。直到今天，他对你的教导，哪些仍然留存？
JEFF BEZOS: Well, you’re right. This is something we have in common. My mother had me when she was very young. She was, she had just turned 17 years old. She was still in high school in Albuquerque, New Mexico. In fact, they tried to kick her out of high school for being pregnant. And my grandfather said, “No, you can’t kick her out. It’s a public school. She gets to finish high school.”
JEFF BEZOS：你说得对，这点我们确实相同。我母亲生我时很年轻，刚满 17 岁，还在新墨西哥州 Albuquerque 的高中上学。事实上，学校曾想因为她怀孕而把她开除。我外公说：“不，你们不能开除她。这是公立学校，她有权把高中读完。”
So anyways, there she was, pregnant with me in high school and finishing her whole senior year after I was born. And because she was so young, my grandparents took me every summer so that she could have some other kind of life for a few months. When you were a very, very young mother, you grow up very fast.
总之，她在高中怀着我，我出生后她完成了整个高三。因为她太年轻，每年暑假祖父母都会把我接走，让她能有几个月过点不同的生活。作为很年轻的母亲，你会很快地成长。
And so every summer from the age of three or four until I was about 16, I went and spent with my grandparents on their ranch in South Texas. And my grandfather at that point, so I only knew him as a rancher. He had done a bunch of things in his life, but at that point, he was a rancher.
所以从我三四岁起到大约 16 岁，每年夏天我都去南德克萨斯的牧场和祖父母一起生活。那时的我，只知道外公是个牧场主。他一生做过许多事，但那时他就是个牧场主。
And he did, and this is quite common, I think, in rural areas, that people do everything themselves. He did his own veterinary work. He repaired everything. He had this D6 Caterpillar bulldozer that he bought for like $5,000 because it was completely broken down. And we spent an entire summer fixing it. And to get the transmission out of the thing, we had to build our own crane.
而且，在乡下很常见的是，人们什么都自己来。他自己给牲畜治病，自己修理各种东西。他花大概 5000 美元买了一台已经彻底坏掉的 D6 型 Caterpillar 推土机。我们用一个暑假把它修好。为把变速箱拆出来，我们还得自己搭一台起重机。
And so he had an incredible resourcefulness to him. You know, he believed he could solve any problem. And I sort of watched him, you know, his veterinary work on the cattle. He would make his own needles. He would get a little piece of wire and heat it up with a blowtorch and pound it flat and then sharpen it and drill a little hole through it. Some of the cattle even survived.
他身上有惊人的应变能力。他相信任何问题都能解决。我看着他给牛做兽医处理，他会自己做针。拿一小段金属丝，用喷灯加热，锤平，再磨尖，再钻个小孔。有些牛甚至在这种情况下也活了下来。
A Lesson in Kindness
善良的一课
JOHN ELKANN: And I remember a very meaningful lesson that he gave you when you were in the car with your grandmother who used to smoke.
JOHN ELKANN：我记得你从他那里得到的一堂很有意义的课——那时你和爱抽烟的祖母坐在车里。
JEFF BEZOS: Yes, that was a very formative moment for me. And I thought I was a very smart little kid. I was very confident. And I’m only at this point, maybe 10 years old. And this was, you know, this would have been 1974. And there were a lot of radio commercials on the car radio about how smoking cigarettes kills you. This was ten years after the US Surgeon General’s warning, and it was still like there was big campaigns to get people to stop smoking.
JEFF BEZOS：是的，那对我影响很大。当时我自以为是个很聪明的小孩，非常自信。我大概 10 岁，年份是 1974 年。车载收音机里有很多广告，说吸烟会致命。那是美国 Surgeon General（卫生局局长）发布警告十年之后，仍有大规模戒烟宣传。
And one of these radio commercials said, “Every puff on a cigarette takes two minutes off of your life.” And my grandmother was a chain smoker. She smoked all day long. And so always when we were in the car, she would have the window down and she’d be smoking the whole time. And I hated this. I thought it smelled bad and I didn’t like it.
其中一则广告说：“每吸一口烟，少活两分钟。”我祖母是个老烟枪，一天到晚抽。我们坐车时，她总把车窗放下，一路抽个不停。我很讨厌，觉得味道难闻，也不喜欢。
And I was listening to these radio commercials and so I decided I would calculate how many years of her life she had taken off. But if every puff is two minutes, and I did some estimating and I stood up in the back of the car and I proudly announced that she had taken, I don’t remember what the number was, let’s say seven years off of her life.
听着这些广告，我决定算一算她少活了多少年。每一口是两分钟，我估算了一下，然后在后座站起来，得意地宣布她已经把——我不记得具体数字了，反正大概是——七年寿命给抽没了。
And I thought in my 10-year-old brain that they were going to congratulate me for being so clever. And instead she burst into tears. And I was taken aback. My grandfather pulled the car over on the side of the road and he had never said one harsh word to me, by the way, in our entire relationship he never did say a harsh word to me, by the way.
在我 10 岁的脑瓜里，我以为他们会夸我聪明。结果她一下子哭了。我愣住了。外公把车停在路边。顺便说一句，他从未对我说过一句重话，我们的相处从未有过重话。
And so he pulled me around, he took me out of the car and took me out to the backside of the car, she’s still in the front seat, tears coming down her cheeks. And he said to me, I had no idea what he was going to say. And he said to me, “Jeff, one day you’ll understand that it’s harder to be kind than it is to be clever.”
他把我拉到车外，带到车后面。祖母还坐在前排，泪水直流。他对我说——我不知道他要说什么——他说：“Jeff，总有一天你会明白，善良比聪明更难。”
Technology with Kindness
技术与善意
JOHN ELKANN: And the reason I think this is a very meaningful lesson is because there’s this idea that technology is clever but not kind. And in some ways it’s a choice. And technology is just a tool that one can use.
JOHN ELKANN：我之所以觉得这是一堂非常有意义的课，是因为人们常有一种观念：技术很聪明，但不善良。在某种意义上，这是一种选择。而技术只是人可以使用的一件工具。
JEFF BEZOS: That’s right.
JEFF BEZOS：没错。
JOHN ELKANN: And you need to be clever to make technology, but you can’t be kind in applying it. And I do think that for most of all, you should also feel very at ease not only in being clever, but equally being kind in what you do and the demonstration of what you’ve built and what Amazon is doing.
JOHN ELKANN：人们认为你需要聪明才智去创造技术，但在应用时却无法保持善意。而我认为，更重要的是，你不仅应当自如地展现聪明，同样也要在所做之事、在你所构建的成果，以及在Amazon正在做的事情上，同样自如地展现善意。
And in similar ways, different conversations over the years we’ve had of this idea that business is a harsh environment. There’s a very important humane side of it. And then what we do is really we put technology and cleverness into the service of others. And you can do that in a way which is kind and valuable.
多年来的不同对话中也常出现这样的观点：商业是一个冷酷的环境。但商业也有非常重要的人文一面。我们所做的，实际上是把技术与聪明才智用于服务他人；而你完全可以用一种既善意又有价值的方式去做这件事。
Long-Term Thinking and Business Relationships
长期思维与商业关系
JEFF BEZOS: Yes. And I think long-term thinking squares these things. So whenever you’re in a situation where it seems that short term you’re doing a business deal with someone and if you think you’re never going to deal with them again, then maybe you would come to a certain answer. But if you realize I’m probably going to deal with this person for the rest of my life, in one way or another, you come to a different answer.
JEFF BEZOS：是的。我认为长期思维能把这些事情统一起来。每当你在短期内与某人做一笔生意、并且以为以后再也不会和他往来时，你可能会得出一种答案。但如果你意识到，在某种意义上你此后的人生都还会与这个人打交道，你就会得出另一种答案。
And so long-term thinking, whether it’s with your customers or your business partners, or even with family members and loved ones, thinking about, “Okay, what do I want this to be like, not just right now, but five years from now, 10 years from now, 20 years from now.” So, you know, in retail, I would always rather lose a sale than lose a customer. And you’re thinking long term, and shareholders and customers and the business, everyone is aligned if you think out 10 or 20 years.
因此，以长期视角去思考——无论面对客户、商业伙伴，还是家人和所爱之人——都要问自己：“好吧，我希望这件事不仅现在如此，五年后、十年后、二十年后会是什么样？”在零售业，我宁愿失去一笔交易，也不愿失去一个客户。当你以长期眼光看问题时，在十年、二十年的尺度上，股东、客户与企业利益会趋于一致。
JOHN ELKANN: And that is also important in moments like the ones we’re living, where there’s a lot of uncertainty, a lot of angst. If you just get devoured by now, you’ll lose the optimism for tomorrow. And I do feel that if you do look at long term and if you think on decades rather than months, yes, what matters today is important for 10 years. And if you have that idea that 10 years things will be better and that we will have made progress, it helps today. And it does relieve a lot of angst.
JOHN ELKANN：在我们所处的这种充满不确定与焦虑的时刻，这同样非常重要。如果你被当下吞噬，就会失去对明天的乐观。我确实觉得，若你以长期视角看问题，以十年而非数月为单位去思考，那么今天重要的事情在十年后仍然重要。若你相信十年后会更好、我们会取得进步，这种信念会帮助今天的你，并能缓解许多焦虑。
Building Strategy Around Customer Needs
围绕客户需求构建战略
JEFF BEZOS: It also helps you decide what to focus on. So if you know, in a world that’s rapidly changing and because of AI and all the technologies we have and the dynamism in the world, so many things are changing and they’re changing so rapidly. So if you think long term, it forces you to think, “What are the points of stability? What is not going to change?” And one of the things that changes very slowly is customer needs.
JEFF BEZOS：长期思维也能帮助你确定关注重点。在一个飞速变化的世界里——由于AI与各种技术的推动，以及世界的活力——许多事物都在快速变化。若以长期眼光思考，它会迫使你去问：“稳定点是什么？哪些不会改变？”而变化得非常慢的一件事，就是客户需求。
And so you can build a strategy around customer needs that will have durability, it will be durable in time. So an example at Amazon is that customers like fast deliveries. And so you could, you’d be, you would never expect 10 years from now, it would be impossible to imagine a customer saying, “I love Amazon, I just wish you delivered a little more slowly.” Or “I love Amazon, I just wish your prices were a little higher.” Or at Blue Origin, “I love your rockets, but I just wish they were a little less reliable.”
因此，你可以围绕客户需求来构建一套具有持久性的战略。例如在Amazon，客户喜欢快速配送。你绝不会指望十年后会有客户说：“我很喜欢Amazon，但真希望你们送货再慢一点。”或者“我很喜欢Amazon，但真希望你们价格再高一点。”在Blue Origin，也不会有人说：“我喜欢你们的火箭，但真希望它们再不那么可靠一点。”
And so you can—these ideas, these big ideas that are customer based, they start with the customer. It’s an idea that is in the customer’s brain. Those are the ones. Because human nature doesn’t change rapidly. And so what we as customers want tends to change slowly. And if you base your energies and direction and strategies and tactics, everything that makes a company effective around those customer needs, then you can change the details of how you get there all the time.
因此，这些围绕客户的大想法都从客户出发，它们存在于客户的大脑中——抓住这些想法。因为人性不会迅速改变，作为客户的我们所渴望的东西往往变化缓慢。若你把精力、方向、战略与战术——也就是一家企业有效运作的一切——都围绕这些客户需求来设计，那么抵达目标的细节就可以随时调整。
Because the world is changing. The technologies will change, your competitive set will change, everything will change except those needs. And so that’s another way that long-term thinking is protective because it forces you to think about the real customer needs to center those as your big ideas and then put energy into them in a hundred ways and to be very dynamic.
因为世界在变化。技术会变，竞争格局会变，万事万物都会变，唯独这些需求不变。因此，长期思维之所以具有保护性，还在于它迫使你把真正的客户需求置于核心，把它们作为你的“大想法”，然后以百种方式投入精力，保持高度动态与灵活。
I always say be stubborn on the vision and flexible on the details. And you have to be, because the world is changing and you change your mind. I’ve noticed that people who are right a lot change their mind a lot. People who are wrong a lot are very stubborn on the details.
我常说，对愿景要固执，对细节要灵活。你必须这样做，因为世界在变化，你的想法也会改变。我注意到，经常正确的人也经常改变主意；而经常出错的人往往在细节上很顽固。
没办法对齐的脑子。
JOHN ELKANN: And that is also self-awareness of how reality is rather than how one would want it to be.
JOHN ELKANN：这同样关乎自知之明——认清现实是什么，而不是执着于我们希望它是什么。
JEFF BEZOS: This is so true. You know who’s undefeated? Reality. Reality wins every time. It’s completely undefeated.
JEFF BEZOS：太对了。你知道谁是常胜不败的吗？是现实。现实每次都赢，从未败过。
The Inventor’s Mindset
发明者的心态
JOHN ELKANN: I think this is really important, particularly to who is starting their careers, to make sure that that reality is really key in what you do. And the other part that I think is really valuable—Jeff and today we wanted to speak about dreams and to be able to be dreaming and be building and sometimes you just dream, but you’re not able to build. Other times you just build but can’t dream.
JOHN ELKANN：我认为这点非常重要，尤其是对那些刚开始职业生涯的人来说，要确保“现实”在你的所作所为中是关键因素。还有另一方面我觉得很有价值——Jeff，今天我们想谈谈“梦想”，既能做梦又能建设；有时你只是在做梦，却无法去建设；另一些时候你只是在建设，却不会做梦。
And a lot of people know you as a founder, as a builder. But the reality, and I’ve been fortunate to know part of that reality well, is the inventor. And Amazon was an invention. Blue Origin is an invention. And there are many inventions that you’ve been making. And that’s what really is interesting for you. How can you make sure that as you invent, and one of the main topics that we’ve discussed is how it’s important to wonder, how it’s important to explore. But as you invent and you wonder, how were you able not to get lost?
许多人以创始人、建设者来认识你。但真实的你——我有幸更了解其中的一部分——是一个发明者。Amazon 是一项发明，Blue Origin 也是一项发明，而你创造了许多发明。这才是真正令你着迷的所在。那么，如何确保在发明的过程中——我们谈到的一个核心主题是“保持好奇”“持续探索”的重要性——在你发明、你好奇探索的同时，如何不迷失方向？
JEFF BEZOS: Well, that is such a good question. And you know, really my best thing, my favorite thing, is to be with a small group of people with a big whiteboard in front of me and inventing. I am an inventor. This is my fundamental nature.
JEFF BEZOS：这是个非常好的问题。说真的，我最擅长、也最喜欢的事，就是和一小群人站在一块大白板前一起发明创造。我是一个发明者——这是我最根本的本性。
And I remember one time we had an executive at Amazon for many, many years, a guy named Jeff Wilkie, who was instrumental in the success of the company. We’ve been gifted with a large number of fantastic executives, including Diego Piacentini, who I think might be in the audience somewhere. And thank you, Diego. Diego’s contributions to Amazon are legendary and to Vento too.
我记得有一次，我们有一位在 Amazon 工作了很多年的高管，叫 Jeff Wilkie，他对公司的成功至关重要。我们有幸拥有一大批出色的高管，包括我想现在可能也在台下某处的 Diego Piacentini。谢谢你，Diego。Diego 对 Amazon 的贡献可谓传奇，对 Vento 亦然。
JOHN ELKANN: Thank you, Diego.
JOHN ELKANN：谢谢你，Diego。
Releasing Ideas at the Right Rate
以合适的节奏释放想法
JEFF BEZOS: And so one day in the early days, because I literally put me in front of a whiteboard and I can come up with 100 ideas in half an hour. And early in Amazon’s history, Jeff Wilkie came to me—one day he worked for Amazon for a quarter of a century, but this is when he probably knew me only for a year. And he said, “Jeff, you have enough ideas to destroy Amazon.”
JEFF BEZOS：在早期，有一天——因为只要把我放到白板前，我半小时能冒出一百个点子。Amazon 创立早期，Jeff Wilkie 来找我——他后来在 Amazon 干了四分之一个世纪，但那会儿他可能只认识我一年。他对我说：“Jeff，你有足够多的点子把 Amazon 给毁了。”
And this was such a shocking idea for me. And as a founder, I had the great luxury of always being able to hire my tutors. They would hire these experienced senior executives, brilliant people like Diego and Jeff Wilkie, and there were several others, too. And I would listen to them and they would teach me.
这句话把我震住了。作为创始人，我有一个“奢侈品”：总能为自己“聘导师”。我们会聘请那些经验丰富的高级管理者，像 Diego、Jeff Wilkie 这样的优秀人才，还有其他几位。我会认真聆听，他们会教我。
And Jeff said, “You have enough ideas per minute, per day, per week to destroy Amazon.” I was like, “What do you mean?” He’s like, “You have to release the work at the right rate that the organization can accept it.” And he was a manufacturing expert. And so his view of the world was, every time I released an idea, I was creating a backlog, a queue, work in process. And because it was just stacking up, it was adding no value. And in fact, it was creating distraction.
Jeff 说：“你每分钟、每天、每周的点子数量都足以把 Amazon 毁掉。”我问：“什么意思？”他说：“你必须以组织能够承接的节奏释放工作。”他是制造业专家，他的世界观是：我每抛出一个点子，其实都在创造积压、排队、半成品；这些东西堆在那里，不仅不增值，反而分散注意力。
And so he said, “Look, you have to figure out when to release these new ideas at a rate that the organization can accept them.” And this was—I mean, this sounds so obvious, but it was not obvious at the time to me. And this was a profound insight for me.
于是他说：“你得搞清楚，什么时候、以什么速率释放新点子，才能被组织吸收。”这话现在听起来显而易见，但当时对我并不明显。这对我来说是一次深刻的洞见。
And so I started prioritizing the ideas better, keeping lists of them, keeping them to myself until the organization was ready for the ideas. And then I also started figuring out, how can I build an organization that can be ready for more ideas? That’s about having the right senior team and the right leadership and getting those people the executive bandwidth so they could do more ideas per unit time.
于是我开始更好地给点子排优先级，把它们记成清单，先收着，直到组织准备好再放出来。同时我也开始思考：如何建设一个能够“消化更多点子”的组织？这需要正确的高管团队与领导力，并为他们腾出执行带宽，让他们单位时间内能承接更多想法。
跟Progressive很像，在商品化的业务中以执行力取胜。
And that is what we built. We built a company that’s very good at inventing and doing more than one thing at a time. And you do want to build as the company gets bigger, you do want to be able to do more than one thing at a time. But that idea of releasing the work was very profound for me, and it made us operationally more effective while still being inventive.
这正是我们所构建的：一家擅长发明、且能同时推进多条战线的公司。随着公司变大，你确实需要具备“一心多用”的能力。但“以合适节奏释放工作”这个理念对我极为重要——它让我们在保持创造力的同时，运营上更有效率。
JOHN ELKANN: And you think you’re a better inventor on the back of that. So the actual inventions that probably—
JOHN ELKANN：而你觉得因此成了更好的发明者。也就是说，最终落地的发明可能——
JEFF BEZOS: Because it also forces you—if you are releasing the ideas through time, it forces you to prioritize them better. You end up sharpening the ideas better. And so, yeah, probably does.
JEFF BEZOS：因为当你把想法分时段释放时，你被迫更好地排优先级，最终把想法打磨得更锋利。所以，是的——大概确实如此。
The Importance of Wandering
漫游的重要性
But you have to wander. Thank you. Wandering. Just one more thing on wandering. Wandering is so important because wandering is a kind of humility. So sometimes when people think about, “Oh, how much should I wander? Wandering sounds so inefficient.” But the only way to go straight to your destination is if you know where you’re going. And sometimes you know where you’re going, but sometimes you don’t.
但你必须去“漫游”。谢谢。关于“漫游”，再补充一点。漫游之所以重要，是因为它是一种谦逊。人们有时会想：“我该漫游多少？漫游听起来很低效。”但只有当你确切知道目的地时，你才能直达终点。而有时你知道自己要去哪里，但有时并不知道。
And so wandering is that acknowledgement that in life and in business and in exploration and in invention, in building a company, a lot of the time you can see the mountaintop, but you can’t see the trail and you have to explore and you have to wander. It may feel very inefficient, but it’s actually very valuable. And it’s really a recognition, it’s a humility that you don’t know where you’re going.
因此，漫游就是一种承认：在生活、商业、探索、发明以及建设公司时，很多时候你能看见山顶，却看不见登顶的路径，你必须去探索、去漫游。它也许让人感觉低效，但实际上极其有价值。本质上，这是一种认知——一种“我并不确知要去何方”的谦逊。
JOHN ELKANN: But inventing has a dose that is not efficient. And it does require time to get ideas, to learn to dream.
JOHN ELKANN：但发明本身就带有一定的不高效。获得想法、学会做梦，确实需要时间。
JEFF BEZOS: Yes.
JEFF BEZOS：是的。
JOHN ELKANN: On the other hand, you need to be efficient once you start building that.
JOHN ELKANN：另一方面，一旦开始动手建设，你就需要高效。
JEFF BEZOS: That’s right.
JEFF BEZOS：没错。
JOHN ELKANN: And iterate.
JOHN ELKANN：并且要迭代。
JEFF BEZOS: These are different things for different times. Sometimes when you know where you’re going, yes, you should be very efficient.
JEFF BEZOS：这些是不同阶段需要做的不同事情。有时当你知道要去哪里时，没错，你就应该非常高效。
Work-Life Harmony
工作与生活的和谐
JOHN ELKANN: How to put it in harmony and not balancing? And I know you don’t like to balance, right? And so how can you put in harmony the dream side and the built side?
JOHN ELKANN：如何让它们“和谐”而不是“平衡”？我知道你不喜欢“平衡”这个词，对吧？那么，如何让“梦想的一面”和“建设的一面”实现和谐？
JEFF BEZOS: And by the way, just to fill that out a little, I don’t love the word balance because it implies a trade-off. I’ve often had people ask me, “How do you deal with work-life balance?” And I’ll say, I like work-life harmony because if you’re happy at home, you’ll be better at work. If you’re better at work, you’ll be better at home. These things go together. They’re not a strict trade-off.
JEFF BEZOS：顺便补充一下，我不喜欢“平衡”这个词，因为它暗示着取舍。很多人问我：“你如何处理工作与生活的平衡？”我会说，我喜欢“工作与生活的和谐”，因为当你在家里幸福时，你在工作中会更好；当你在工作中更好时，你在家里也会更好。这两者是相辅相成的，而不是严格的此消彼长。
And it’s true, I think for exploration, but also determined execution, you just need to do both. And they actually do feed each other. It’s the things that come out of the execution gives you new data and new ideas about what the next step should be in your exploration. So the two things don’t work against each other, they work together.
我认为，这对探索与坚定执行同样成立——你需要两者兼备，而且它们彼此滋养。执行所产生的结果会为你的探索提供新数据与新想法，指引下一步该做什么。因此，这两者并不相互对立，而是相互成就。
JOHN ELKANN: And how—so how would you advise young founders in practical terms, to be able to be in harmony with both?
JOHN ELKANN：那么——在实践层面上，你会如何建议年轻创始人，让他们在两者之间实现和谐？
Advice for Young Founders
给年轻创始人的建议
JEFF BEZOS: The touchstone, the thing you always go back to is those customer needs. So that’s the only way that I could advise any founder or entrepreneur is to deeply understand what are the big ideas that their customers want. And you can’t—you should ask them, ask your customers, but it’s not sufficient. You also have to invent on their behalf because the biggest breakthroughs, the most important ideas, customers don’t know to ask. They don’t know to ask for those things. That’s why you have to dream and you have to use your intuition and your gut and your heart.
JEFF BEZOS：基准——你总要回到的一点——就是客户需求。我对任何创始人或企业家的唯一建议，就是要深入理解客户真正想要的“大想法”是什么。你当然要去问客户，但那还不够。你还必须代表客户去发明，因为最大的突破、最重要的想法，是客户不知道该去索求的——他们根本不知道要那些东西。这就是为什么你必须去做梦，必须运用直觉、本能与真心。
All of the data that gets used in business is essential. If you’re in business and you’re not looking at your data, trust me, your competitors are going to beat you. But if you’re only looking at your data, you also will not win, or at least not win big. Because the most important decisions that every person makes when they’re building something new is made with intuition. You cannot prove it, but you have an instinct and a hunch, and then you’ll pay attention. If that turns out to be wrong, it won’t be a big deal. You’ll correct.
商业中使用的数据都至关重要。如果你做生意却不看数据，相信我，你的竞争对手会打败你。但如果你只看数据，你同样赢不了，至少赢不了大胜。因为当人们在创造新事物时，最重要的决策往往依赖直觉。你无法证明它，但你有一种本能与预感，然后据此投注注意力。若事实证明判断错误，也不是什么大事——你会修正它。
Lessons from the Internet Bubble
互联网泡沫的教训
JOHN ELKANN: I’d like to go back in the future. Twenty-five years ago, I was studying here in Turin, not very far away, in the engineering school. It was the miracle of Internet and mobile phones together. I was actually doing a startup called [Cha Web], which was a portal. There were many portals. Portals were also being financed by vendors who were selling you technologies and financing that technology and e-commerce was going to be everywhere.
JOHN ELKANN：我想“回到未来”。二十五年前，我在都灵这里、不远处的工学院学习。那时是互联网与手机结合的奇迹。我实际上在做一家名为[Cha Web]的初创公司，是一个门户。当时门户网站很多。卖技术的供应商也会为门户提供融资，推动那项技术，而电子商务将无处不在。
Penetration rates seemed incredible. The speed at which that was going to happen was imminent. And it was exciting and incredible. And Amazon existed and it was already a public company then. And then it just blew up. Everything blew. And you had the Internet bubble.
渗透率看起来惊人，一切似乎即将迅速发生。这既令人兴奋又不可思议。那时Amazon已经存在并已上市。然后一切突然“爆了”，全都崩盘——互联网泡沫破裂。
Today we have similarities with AI and we have this incredible sense of optimism and excitement and everything is going to be there. Now, how do you feel about this moment and what do your instincts taking us back 25 years ago can help us detect? Because my instincts are of caution.
今天AI身上有类似之处——我们感到极度乐观和兴奋，仿佛一切都会到来。此刻你怎么看？你回到25年前的直觉能帮助我们识别什么？因为我的直觉是要谨慎。
The 2000 Dot-Com Crash and Business Fundamentals
2000年科网崩盘与业务基本面
JEFF BEZOS: Well, okay, so to take you back in time, in the year 2000, when the Internet bubble burst, Amazon stock in a very short period of time went from $113 a share to $6 a share. And by the way, it’s split many times since then. I don’t know, 20 for one or maybe even more. I don’t have the number. So these prices have nothing to do with today’s stock prices.
JEFF BEZOS：好，我们回到当年。2000年互联网泡沫破裂，Amazon 的股价在很短时间里从每股113美元跌到6美元。顺便说一下，之后公司已经多次拆股——可能是20比1，甚至更多，我没记住准确数字。所以这些价格与今天的股价没有可比性。
But to go from 113 to six in a short period of time was very concerning. And shareholders were upset. Employees were nervous. All of our employee base, their parents were all calling our employees and saying, “Are you okay?” This was the environment of great nervousness.
但在短期内从113跌到6，确实让人担忧。股东不满，员工紧张。员工家长纷纷打电话问他们“你还好吗？”当时的氛围极度紧张。
But I looked at the numbers in the business and every month as the stock price went from 113 to 6, a number of customers went up every month. Our gross profits went up every month. Our operating expense, we were still in a loss position, but our losses as a percentage of sales went down every month. Every single business metric, new customers, customer repeat purchases, everything that we were monitoring through that entire period, kept getting better.
但我看的是业务数据。股价从113到6的过程中，每个月我们的客户数量都在增长；毛利每个月都在增长；运营费用方面，尽管仍在亏损，但亏损占销售额的比例每个月都在下降。我们在那段时期监控的每一项业务指标——新增客户、复购等——都在持续改善。
And so that’s one observation about bubbles in general. The fundamentals can be disconnected, the fundamentals of the business. And of course, as entrepreneurs, you’re focused on the fundamentals of the business. The stock price is an output, an ultimate output. You actually have very little control over it.
这就是对泡沫的一个普遍观察：市场价格可以与业务基本面脱节。作为创业者，你应当专注于业务基本面。股价只是“输出端”，最终的结果，你实际上几乎无法控制。
Benjamin Graham, the great investor, is famous for saying, “In the short term, the stock market is a voting machine. In the long term, it’s a weighing machine.” And so, as founders and entrepreneurs and business people, our job is to build a heavy company. We want to build a company that when it is weighed, it is a very heavy company. We do not want to focus on the stock price. And so that will be misleading because it can be disconnected from the fundamentals. And when bubbles happen, that’s one thing that happens.
伟大的投资者 Benjamin Graham 有句名言：“短期来看，股市是投票机；长期来看，它是称重机。”因此，作为创始人、企业家与经营者，我们的任务是把公司“做重”。我们要建设一家在被称重时“分量十足”的公司，而不是盯着股价。因为股价可能与基本面脱节，关注它会产生误导。泡沫时期尤其如此。
AI and the Nature of Industrial Bubbles
AI 与“产业型泡沫”的本质
The second thing that happens when people get very excited, as they are today about artificial intelligence, for example, is every experiment gets funded, every company gets funded, the good ideas and the bad ideas. And investors have a hard time in the middle of this excitement, distinguishing between the good ideas and the bad ideas. And so that’s also probably happening today.
第二件会发生的事是：当大家像今天对人工智能那样极度兴奋时，所有实验都会获得资金，所有公司都会获得资金——好点子和坏点子一并被资助。在这种兴奋情绪中，投资者很难区分好坏点子。今天很可能也在发生这一幕。
But it doesn’t mean that anything that’s happening isn’t real. Like AI is real, and it is going to change every industry. In fact, it’s a very unusual technology in that regard, and that it’s a horizontal enabling layer.
但这并不意味着正在发生的一切不真实。AI 是真的，而且将改变所有行业。事实上，它很独特，因为它是一个“横向赋能层”。
Today we talk about AI first companies like OpenAI and Anthropic and Mistral and so on and so on and so on. There are so many startup companies that are kind of AI companies of various kinds, and that’s normal for this phase. But that is not the biggest impact that AI is going to have.
今天我们谈论很多“AI first”的公司，比如 OpenAI、Anthropic、Mistral 等等。各式各样的AI初创层出不穷，这对当下阶段来说是正常的。但这并不是AI影响力最大的部分。
The biggest impact that AI is going to have is it is going to affect every company in the world. It is going to make their quality go up and their productivity go up. I mean, by every company, I literally mean every company, every manufacturing company, every hotel, every consumer products company, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. And so that is hard to fathom, but it’s real.
AI 最大的影响在于：它将影响世界上的每一家企业。它会提升质量、提高生产率。我说“每一家”，确实是字面意义上的每一家——每一家制造企业、每一家酒店、每一家消费品公司，等等。这难以想象，但它是真实的。
There is no doubt. We don’t know how long it will take exactly. We don’t know how quickly that transition will occur. And it’ll probably occur at different rates in different industries, but that is very real.
毫无疑问。我们并不知道确切需要多久，也不知道转变的速度会多快；而且各行业的节奏可能不同，但这确实会发生。
Now, what the stock market does, which is when we think of bubbles, we think of valuations and market caps and things like this, and how many billions of dollars are being invested in these six people at a $20 billion valuation, even though they just started yesterday. That’s very unusual behavior. Investors don’t usually give a team of six people a couple of billion dollars with no product. It’s rare and that’s happening today.
至于股市层面，一提到泡沫我们就会想到估值、市值之类——比如某个只有6个人的团队、刚成立不久，却被以200亿美元估值投下数十亿美元。这是非常反常的行为。投资者通常不会在没有产品的情况下给6个人几十亿美元。但这样的事今天确实在发生。
But the great thing about industrial bubbles, this is a kind of industrial bubble as opposed to financial bubbles. And I’ll tell you what I mean by that. If you go back like the 90s had a biotech bubble and there were a bunch of pharma startup companies that were designing drugs and using new techniques and the world got very excited, the investment world got very excited. As a group they all lost money. But we did get a couple of life saving drugs.
不过，“产业型泡沫”相比“金融型泡沫”有一个可取之处。我的意思是，比如90年代有一次生物科技泡沫，一批制药初创用新技术设计药物，全球与资本市场都极度兴奋。整体而言投资人亏了钱，但社会获得了几种救命药。
A bubble like a banking bubble, a crisis in the banking system, that’s just bad. That’s like 2008. And so those bubbles society wants to avoid, the ones that are industrial are not nearly as bad. It could even be good because when the dust settles and you see who are the winners, society benefits from those inventions. They still get those life saving drugs. And that’s what’s going to happen here too. This is real. The benefits to society from AI are going to be gigantic.
而像银行业泡沫这类“金融系统性危机”就纯属坏事——比如2008年。这样的泡沫是社会应当避免的；而“产业型泡沫”远没那么糟，甚至可能是好事。因为当尘埃落定、赢家浮现时，社会会从这些发明中受益——那些救命药依然会被创造出来。AI 也将如此。这一切都是真的，AI 带给社会的益处将是巨大的。
Lessons from the Internet Bubble
互联网泡沫的教训
JOHN ELKANN: If we go back 25 years ago when the Internet was in that bubbleish moment, no one would have predicted a lot of the industrial benefits.
JOHN ELKANN：如果我们回到25年前互联网处在泡沫阶段的那个时刻，没人会预见到后来出现的许多产业层面的收益。
JEFF BEZOS: Exactly.
JEFF BEZOS：没错。
JOHN ELKANN: That industrial benefit and the fiber, huge investment that we’re putting in for.
JOHN ELKANN：那些产业收益，以及我们投入巨资铺设的光纤基础设施。
JEFF BEZOS: It’s a perfect example that all of that fiber, fiber optic cable that got laid and by the way, the companies who laid all that cable went out of business. They literally went bankrupt. But the fiber optic cable was still there and we got to use it.
JEFF BEZOS：这是个完美例子——大量铺设的光纤电缆留在了那里。顺带说一句，铺设这些电缆的公司很多都倒闭了，真的破产了。但光纤仍然在那里，我们后来得以使用它们。
JOHN ELKANN: And the telco companies who owned the customers and who had a very strong moat ended up not being the companies that emerged.
JOHN ELKANN：而那些拥有客户、护城河很深的电信公司，最终并不是后来崛起的赢家。
做基础设施的都有这个问题。
JEFF BEZOS: That’s right.
JEFF BEZOS：对。
JOHN ELKANN: And a lot of the infrastructure that was made for e-commerce ended up actually working.
JOHN ELKANN：而且很多为电商打造的基础设施，最终确实发挥了作用。
JEFF BEZOS: Yes.
JEFF BEZOS：是的。
JOHN ELKANN: And in some ways what is really important in the moment we’re living now is on one side to be extremely optimistic that the societal and beneficial consequences of AI like we had with Internet 25 years ago are real and there to stay.
JOHN ELKANN：在某种意义上，当下真正重要的是，一方面我们要非常乐观地看待AI带来的社会性、普惠性成果——就像25年前互联网带来的那些——它们是真实存在并将长期持续的。
Multiple Golden Ages
多重黄金时代
JEFF BEZOS: 100%. And by the way, it’s not even just AI. We are all gifted. Everybody in this room, we’re gifted to live in a moment of time when there are multiple golden ages going on. So you have space travel is in the middle of a golden age. AI and AI is several different things. By the way, middle of a golden age robotics, middle of a golden age. It’s extraordinary. There’s never been a better time to be excited about the future. And as I said earlier.
JEFF BEZOS：百分之百同意。而且不仅仅是AI。我们都很幸运——在座每个人都很幸运——生活在多个“黄金时代”并行的时刻。比如航天正处在黄金时代；AI也是，而且AI涵盖多种形态；顺便说，机器人也处在黄金时代。这太不凡了。历史上从未有比当下更值得为未来感到兴奋的时刻。正如我先前所说。
JOHN ELKANN: Thank you.
JOHN ELKANN：谢谢。
JEFF BEZOS: This rapid rate of change is fantastic for entrepreneurs.
JEFF BEZOS：这种快速变革的速度，对创业者来说极其有利。
JOHN ELKANN: And I think what’s really important of what we just discussed is on one side to de-correlate the bubbles and their bursting consequences that might or might not happen from the actual reality.
JOHN ELKANN：我认为我们刚才讨论的关键在于：要将泡沫及其可能发生或不发生的破裂后果，与真实的产业现实“去相关化”。
JEFF BEZOS: Exactly.
JEFF BEZOS：没错。
JOHN ELKANN: And that if you look at AI similarly to the Internet or similarly to electricity, it’s going to be broadly diffused.
JOHN ELKANN：而且，如果你把AI类比为互联网，或类比为电力，它将被广泛传播与普及。
JEFF BEZOS: Correct.
JEFF BEZOS：正确。
JOHN ELKANN: And it will go everywhere and everyone from us as people to companies will be using it and benefiting from it.
JOHN ELKANN：它会无处不在，从我们个人到各类公司都会使用它、并从中受益。
JEFF BEZOS: That’s right.
JEFF BEZOS：是的。
JOHN ELKANN: And so we need to just be extremely open in being able to adopt it and not necessarily think like back in the days that electricity was only going to be applied for light bulbs or electricity was only going to be applied for a fridge.
JOHN ELKANN：因此我们需要以极度开放的心态去采纳它，而不是像当年那样，以为电力只会用在电灯泡或冰箱上。
Civilizational Abundance Through Innovation
以创新促成文明的富足
JEFF BEZOS: Civilizational abundance comes from our inventions. So 10,000 years ago, or whenever it was, somebody invented the plow and we all got richer. And that’s what happens one step at a time. We build tools and the tools increase. I’m talking about all of civilization. These tools increase our abundance and that pattern will continue. And AI is a gigantic part of that. Space travel is going to be a big part of that. I don’t see how anybody can be discouraged who is alive right now.
JEFF BEZOS：文明的富足来自我们的发明。比如在一万年前（或者更早），有人发明了犁，我们因此更富足。事情就是这样一步步发生的：我们造工具，工具不断进化——我说的是整个人类文明——这些工具提升我们的丰裕度，而这种模式会继续。AI将在其中扮演极其重要的角色；航天也会是重要一环。我实在不明白，在此刻仍然活着的人，怎么会对未来感到气馁。
The Future of Technology and Blue Origin
技术的未来与 Blue Origin
JOHN ELKANN: And as we come to a conclusion of this talk, though, I would have enjoyed to continue it for much longer, Jeff. The future we have ahead and as you said, we should be very encouraged by its future. And we had during these days a lot of what’s happening which is at the intersection of software and hardware, at the intersections of bits and atoms.
JOHN ELKANN：在我们接近对话尾声之际，虽然我很想和你继续聊更久，Jeff。我们面前的未来，正如你所言，值得我们倍感振奋。过去几天，我们看到许多发生在软件与硬件交汇处、bits 与 atoms 交汇处的事情。
And we had here one of our companies, CNH CEO Gary spoke about tech and iron agriculture equipment and how that’s becoming very different and somehow these are becoming robots, cars. We had Archer company, we’re associated and how cars are becoming flying cars. The reality is my daughter Vita, who’s here, was very disappointed when I showed her a flying car, which is a child of a helicopter and a drone. And it’s not actually a car that then flies, but it will happen.
我们这儿的一家企业，CNH 的 CEO Gary 谈到了技术与“铁器”农业设备，以及它们如何与以往大不相同，并在某种意义上正变成机器人、汽车。我们还有合作方 Archer，展示了汽车如何变成飞行汽车。现实是，我把一种“飞行汽车”给在场的女儿 Vita 看时，她很失望——那其实是直升机与无人机的“孩子”，并不是真正会“先是汽车、后会飞”的车，但这一天总会到来。
And healthcare, which is a sector where we’ve been spending a lot of time and looking at machines that Philips do, where surgery is going to become more and more precise and more and more clever thanks to this combination.
至于我们投入大量精力的医疗健康领域，看看 Philips 的设备——借由这种软硬一体的结合，外科手术将变得越来越精准、越来越“聪明”。
We are in Turin, which not only has its roots in cars and automotive, but also in aviation and space. Because from the engines that were applied to cars and multiple machines, trucks, agriculture equipment, they also went in planes and ultimately on rockets. Combustion will stay on rockets. And we have a very strong base in Turin. A lot of companies, a lot of excitement.
我们身处的 Turin 不仅根植于汽车工业，也深连着航空与航天。因为用于汽车、各类机械、卡车与农业设备的发动机，也进入了飞机，最终走向火箭。燃烧技术将继续存在于火箭之上。Turin 拥有非常坚实的产业基础，很多公司，热情高涨。
You’re spending a huge amount of time in Blue Origin. Very few people know how hard you’re working on it. And the truth is you haven’t really stepped down. On the contrary, you just went much faster forward. Can you tell us a little bit about how the world looks like 10, 50 years from now?
你把大量时间投入在 Blue Origin。很少人知道你在这件事上有多拼。事实是你并没有真正“退下”，相反，你只是“更快地向前”。能不能跟我们谈谈，10 年、50 年之后的世界会是什么样？
JEFF BEZOS: Well, so I am working very hard on Blue Origin. I’m working very hard on AI. I’m the least retired person in the world and I will never retire because work is too much fun. It will never happen.
JEFF BEZOS：嗯，我确实在 Blue Origin 上拼得很凶，在 AI 上也是。我大概是这个世界上“最不像退休”的人。我永远不会退休，因为工作太好玩了——那一天永远不会到来。
JOHN ELKANN: And Lauren is for it.
JOHN ELKANN：而且 Lauren 也支持。
JEFF BEZOS: She knows it makes me happy. And so look, Blue Origin. At the end of this month, or maybe the first week in November, we’re going to launch our New Glenn vehicle and we’re sending NASA’s Escapade satellite into orbit around Mars. So that’s about to happen.
JEFF BEZOS：她知道这让我开心。说回 Blue Origin。本月末，或者 11 月第一周，我们将发射 New Glenn 运载火箭，把 NASA 的 Escapade 卫星送入火星轨道。这事马上就要发生了。
We are building a lunar lander that is going to land on the moon here in just a few years. And also very exciting, it’s hydrogen powered. We develop being 20 degree Kelvin, very, very cold, 20 degrees above absolute zero. 20 Kelvin, electric powered, solar powered cryo coolers so that we can keep liquid hydrogen liquid and have it be a storable propellant in space.
我们正在建造一款月球着陆器，几年内就会登陆月球。更令人兴奋的是，它以氢为推进剂。我们正在研发在 20 Kelvin 的极低温（绝对零度之上 20 度）下，由电力与太阳能驱动的低温冷却器，以便让液氢保持液态，从而成为可在太空中储存的推进剂。
This is very hard to do. We already have made amazing progress on it because hydrogen is the highest performing fuel for rocketry, for space travel. But it has this problem that it has to be kept so cold that historically hasn’t been able to be used on deep space missions because it just boils away. So we’re solving that problem, making hydrogen a storable fuel.
这非常难，但我们已取得显著进展。氢是航天推进中性能最高的燃料，但必须保持极低温。历史上它难以用于深空任务，因为会不断“沸腾”损耗。我们正解决这个问题，让氢真正成为可储存的燃料。
We are doing R&D into how to build solar cells, solar cells from lunar regolith on the surface of the moon. Because if you’re going to go to the moon and stay on the moon, you need to be using the resources of the moon. You need to be harvesting the moon to make that cost effective.
我们还在研发如何用月壤在月面制造太阳能电池。因为如果要去月球、并在月球驻留，就必须“用月球的资源”，就地取材，才能具备成本效率。
The Moon as a Launch Pad
把月球当作发射与出发平台
JOHN ELKANN: So the moon will be a launch pad.
JOHN ELKANN：所以月球将成为一个“发射台”。
JEFF BEZOS: The moon is a gift from the universe. It’s so close to Earth, it’s only three and a half days away. We can launch and get to the moon anytime. Unfortunately, to get to other planetary bodies, they have very rare launch windows. Mars, you can go to Mars once every 26 months or so.
JEFF BEZOS：月球是宇宙赐予的礼物。它离地球很近，只需三天半航程。我们随时都能起飞并抵达月球。不幸的是，前往其他行星体的“发射窗口”很稀少。以火星为例，大约每 26 个月才有一次机会。
And so the moon is really a gift. And it has a very low gravitational field, only a sixth of Earth, which means it takes about 30 times less energy to lift a kilogram of mass off the moon than it does to lift it off the Earth. So we can use the moon as a rocket fuel depot to go to the rest of the solar system.
所以月球真的是礼物。它的引力只有地球的六分之一，意味着把一公斤质量从月面送上天所需的能量，大约只有从地球起飞的三十分之一。因此，我们可以把月球作为“火箭燃料补给站”，借此前往太阳系更远处。
One of the things that’s going to happen in the next, it’s hard to know exactly when it’s 10 plus years, but I bet it’s not more than 20 years. We’re going to start building these giant gigawatt data centers in space. So these giant training clusters, those will be better built in space because we have solar power there 24/7 and the solar power there is, there are no clouds and no rain, no weather, so you can build.
接下来会发生的一件事——确切时间不好说，10 年开外，但我敢打赌不会超过 20 年——我们会开始在太空建设“吉瓦级”数据中心。也就是那些超大型训练集群，把它们建在太空更好：那里 24/7 太阳能可用，没有云、没有雨、没有天气扰动，利于建设与运行。
We will be able to beat the cost of terrestrial data centers in space in the next couple of decades. And so space will end up being one of the places that keeps making Earth better. It already has happened with weather satellites, it’s already happened with communication satellites. The next step is going to be data centers and other kinds of manufacturing.
在未来一两代人的时间里，我们将在太空把成本做到优于地面数据中心。由此，太空将成为持续让地球变得更好的“生产地”。这在气象卫星、通信卫星上已经实现了；下一步就是数据中心与其他形态的制造业。
The Future of Travel
旅行的未来
JOHN ELKANN: And will we be able to travel on Earth faster?
JOHN ELKANN：我们在地球上能实现更快的旅行吗？
JEFF BEZOS: Yeah, I think so, eventually. This is very challenging kind of hypersonic travel on Earth. The point to point ballistic travel, it doesn’t break any laws of physics. It’s difficult in some ways. Rockets tend to be very noisy, so people probably don’t want them like in their downtown areas. So we’ll have to figure out exactly how that works. But there may be other ways of doing hypersonic travel too. So I do think that will happen.
JEFF BEZOS：我认为最终可以。这类在地球上的高超音速旅行非常具有挑战性。点到点的弹道式旅行并不违背物理定律，但在某些方面确实困难。火箭通常非常嘈杂，所以人们大概不希望它们出现在市中心。因此我们需要弄清楚如何具体实现。不过，也可能存在其他实现高超音速旅行的方式。所以我确实认为这会发生。
JOHN ELKANN: And living in space, when do you think we’ll be living in space?
JOHN ELKANN：那在太空生活呢？你认为我们什么时候会在太空居住？
The Future of Human Life in Space
太空人居的未来
JEFF BEZOS: Well, I believe we’ll have in the next kind of couple of decades, I believe there will be millions of people living in space. That’s how fast this is going to accelerate.
JEFF BEZOS：我相信在接下来的几十年里，会有数百万人在太空生活。进展的加速度会快到这个程度。
It’s interesting too because they’ll mostly be living there because they want to. Our robotic technology is getting so good, we don’t need people to live in space. Anything that we need done, if you need to do some work on the surface of the moon or anywhere else, we will be able to send robots to do that work. And that will be much more cost effective than sending humans.
有趣的是，多数人会因为“想要”而在那里生活。我们的机器人技术进步很快，其实并不“需要”人类居住在太空。无论是在月面还是其他地方需要完成的任务，我们都能派机器人去做，而且比把人送上去在成本上更具优势。
JOHN ELKANN: And if you were to advise a movie or a book of sci-fi that’s in your view, more truth to what we expect, what would that be? And I’m asking because I know you love sci-fi and I love sci-fi. I still disappointed myself of seeing how you always read and see these movies and it never happens.
JOHN ELKANN：如果要你推荐一部在你看来更贴近我们所期望未来的科幻电影或书，会是哪一部？我这么问是因为我知道你热爱科幻，我也一样。只是我总会失望——看你读了、看了那么多作品，现实却常常没有照着发生。
Science Fiction and the Future of AI
科幻与AI的未来
JEFF BEZOS: I’ve read so much science fiction just starting in that little town in South Texas where I spent my summers with my grandfather. Someone had donated his science fiction collection to the local library, which is this town of only 3,000 people. And over the course of a few summers, I read my way through that, all the classics: Asimov and Heinlein and so on.
JEFF BEZOS：我读了大量科幻，从我暑假和外公一起待着的南德克萨斯那个小镇开始。有人把他的科幻藏书捐给了当地图书馆——那镇子只有三千人。几个夏天里我把它们都读完了，经典作品一本本看过：Asimov、Heinlein 等等。
Something that I would recommend is the Culture series, only because it has such an interesting utopian take on the intersection of humanity and artificial intelligence. And I think there’s so much talk about that right now. Not that this is the way it’s going to be or anything, but it’s just a very interesting way to think about these super intelligences.
我会推荐 Culture series，仅仅因为它对“人类与人工智能的交汇”给出了非常有趣的乌托邦式想象。我觉得当下关于这个话题的讨论很多。并不是说未来一定会那样，而是它提供了一种很有意思的方式去思考这些超级智能。
We didn’t have time to talk about that, but I find so many people nervous or anxious or even a little disappointed, discouraged or depressed by thinking about this coming. You know, right now computers can easily beat us at chess. Once they can compete us at anything, do we have meaning in our lives? I think the answer to that is 100% yes. We will still have meaning in our lives.
我们今天没时间展开，但我发现很多人一想到这些即将到来的变化就会紧张、焦虑，乃至有点失望、沮丧、抑郁。现在电脑轻易就能在国际象棋上打败我们。等到它们在任何事情上都能和我们一较高下，我们的生命还会有意义吗？我认为答案是百分之百的“有”。我们的生命依然会有意义。
JOHN ELKANN: Grazie. Thank you.
JOHN ELKANN：Grazie。谢谢。
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