The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call November 4, 2025 9:30 AM EST
Company Participants
Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
John Sauerland - VP & CFO
Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director
Patrick Callahan - President of Personal Lines
Conference Call Participants
Jian Huang - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Tracy Benguigui - Wolfe Research, LLC
Jamminder Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Charles Peters - Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
Taylor Scott - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Joshua Shanker - BofA Securities, Research Division
Jon Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Ryan Tunis - Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Brian Meredith - UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Presentation
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
Good morning and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's third quarter investor event. I'm Doug Constantine, Treasury Controller and I will be moderator for today's event.
各位早上好，感谢今天参加 Progressive 第三季度投资者活动。我是 Doug Constantine，资金管理主管，本场活动将由我担任主持人。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders which have been posted to the company's website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60-minute schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CFO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Introductory comments by our CFO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.
除公司网站上已发布的年度 Form 10-K、季度 Form 10-Q 报告及致股东信所提供的信息外，公司不会就业绩作出更多细节评论。虽然我们季度的投资者关系活动通常会就某个业务板块进行专题汇报，但今天我们将把这 60 分钟用于 CFO 的开场致辞以及与管理层的问答环节。CFO 的开场致辞已预先录制。预录发言结束后，我们将用剩余时间与管理团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first, second and third quarters of 2025 where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to the forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section from our website at investors.progressive.com.
一如既往，本次活动中的讨论可能包含前瞻性声明。这些声明基于管理层当前的预期，同时受到诸多风险和不确定性影响，可能导致实际事件与结果与今天讨论的内容存在重大差异。有关这些风险与不确定性的更多信息，可参见我们截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日年度的 Form 10-K，以及 2025 年第一、第二与第三季度的 Form 10-Q 补充文件，其中包含影响我们业务的风险因素、与前瞻性声明相关的“安全港”说明，以及我们所面临挑战的其他讨论。相关文件可在公司网站 investors.progressive.com 的投资者关系板块获取。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CFO, John Sauerland, who will kick us with some introductory comments. John?
今天首先有请我们的 CFO，John Sauerland，为大家做开场致辞。John？
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
Good morning and thank you for joining Progressive's Third Quarter 2025 Investor Relations Call. We had an excellent quarter with an 89.5 combined ratio, 10% premium growth and policies in force growth of 12% versus a year ago. That policies in force growth equates to 4.2 million more policyholders or almost 7 million more vehicles in force than a year ago. While growth is lower than in recent years, we are still gaining significant market share and capitalizing on the opportunities for growth through robust media spend and competitive rates. Year-to-date, our combined ratio is 87.3% with 13% premium growth and comprehensive income of $10 billion which is over 30% ahead of 2024. Rounding out our key performance metrics, our trailing 12-month comprehensive return on equity stands at 37.1%.
各位早上好，感谢参加 Progressive 2025 年第三季度投资者关系电话会。本季度表现出色，综合成本率为 89.5，保费增长 10%，在保保单数量同比增长 12%。在保保单的增长相当于较一年前新增 420 万名保单持有人，或接近 700 万辆在保车辆。尽管增速低于近年水平，我们依然在扩大市场份额，并通过强劲的媒体投放和具有竞争力的费率把握增长机会。年初至今，我们的综合成本率为 87.3%，保费增长 13%，综合收益为 100 亿美元，较 2024 年高出 30% 以上。作为关键绩效指标的补充，我们过去 12 个月的综合 ROE 为 37.1%。
Before moving to questions, we'd like to take a moment to offer more commentary on the $950 million estimate for policyholder credit expense for Personal Auto customers in Florida that we recognized in September. Florida is Progressive's largest market, and we are the leading provider of Personal Auto insurance in Florida. In 2023, Florida legislators responded to rapidly rising insurance rates by passing House Bill 837, which, among other things, moved Florida to a modified comparative negligence system, meaning drivers who are more than 50% at fault for an accident could no longer sue for damages and disallowed one-way attorney fees. Since House Bill 837 took effect, our average loss costs or pure premiums for Florida injury claims are down between 10% and 20% and the percentage of Florida personal injury protection, or PIP claims, for which we receive lawsuits is down around 60%.
在进入问答之前，我们想就 9 月确认的关于 Florida 个人汽车险保单持有人抵扣费用（policyholder credit expense）9.5 亿美元的估计作更多说明。Florida 是 Progressive 最大的市场，我们也是 Florida 个人汽车保险的领先提供商。2023 年，Florida 立法机构为应对保险费率快速上升通过了 House Bill 837，其中将 Florida 转向修正的比较过失制度，意味着在事故中负有超过 50% 责任的驾驶者将不能再提起损害赔偿诉讼，并且不再允许单向律师费（one-way attorney fees）。自 House Bill 837 生效以来，我们在 Florida 的人身伤害索赔平均损失成本（或纯保费）下降了 10%–20%，我们收到诉讼的人身伤害保护（PIP）索赔占比下降了约 60%。
While we have been responsive in reflecting these changes in our loss costs through 2 rate reductions for Florida consumers in the past year and another plan for December, the drop in loss costs was more pronounced than we expected. Additionally, obviously there is significant risk of very costly storms in Florida, and we have seen virtually none in 2025. The Florida excess profits law calls for the return of profits in excess of 500 basis points better than our filed and approved underwriting profit margin over a 3 accident year period. And at quarter end, we estimated that liability at $950 million.
尽管过去一年我们已通过两次费率下调（并计划在 12 月再次下调）来及时反映损失成本的这些变化，但损失成本的下降幅度超出了我们的预期。此外，Florida 面临代价高昂的风暴灾害风险，而 2025 年我们几乎未见相关发生。Florida 的超额利润法要求：在 3 个事故年度期间，若利润超过我们报备并获批的承保利润率 500 个基点（5 个百分点）以上，需予以返还。于本季度末，我们将该项负债估计为 9.5 亿美元。
For perspective, in 2022 alone, inclusive of Hurricane Ian, our Personal Auto combined ratio was over 100 and those results translated to around a $750 million decrease to the excess profits equation for the periods that included 2022. Our Florida auto business is more than 50% bigger now than in 2022. We applaud the legislative changes in House Bill 837 and resulting more affordable Personal Auto insurance premiums for consumers and desire to continue to grow our presence in Florida. Our loss reserves will continue to develop as we handle more claims into the new system, and our estimate for the policyholder credit expense for the 2023 to 2025 period will develop accordingly with monthly adjustments showing up in the expense line on our income statement. Naturally, going forward, our intent is to manage profitability in Florida to avoid excess profits.
作为参照，仅 2022 年，包含飓风 Hurricane Ian 的影响，我们的个人汽车险综合成本率就超过了 100，而这些结果使包含 2022 年的期间在超额利润计算中的数额减少了约 7.5 亿美元。我们在 Florida 的汽车险业务规模如今较 2022 年大了超过 50%。我们赞赏 House Bill 837 的立法变更以及由此带来的更可负担的个人汽车险保费，并希望继续扩大在 Florida 的布局。随着在新制度下处理更多案件，我们的未决赔款准备金将继续“发展”（调整），针对 2023–2025 年期间的保单持有人抵扣费用估计也将相应“发展”，相关的月度调整将体现在损益表的费用科目中。顺理成章地，未来我们将在 Florida 管理盈利水平以避免出现超额利润。
And finally, in response to questions we received, while a few other states have statutes covering excess profits, we don't currently foresee other similar exposures. Thank you again for joining us and we'll now take your questions.
最后，回应我们收到的问题，尽管还有少数其他州也有涉及超额利润的法规，但目前我们不预见其他类似的风险敞口。再次感谢各位参与，接下来进入问答环节。
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. [Operator Instructions]
以上为今天活动的预录部分。现在我们的管理团队成员已上线，准备现场回答问题。[Operator 提示]
Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
The first question is from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.
第一位提问来自 Morgan Stanley 的 Bob Huang。
Jian Huang
Morgan Stanley, Research Division
My first question is on advertising spend. Ad spending this quarter in terms of dollar amount is fairly similar to the last quarter. Just given the increased competition policy in force growth has decelerated specifically in Personal Auto. Curious if there's a way to think about ad spending going forward. Clearly, these policies are very profitable. Do you need to maintain the current level of ad spending in an increasingly competitive environment? Just curious how you should think about ad spending going forward.
我的第一个问题是关于广告支出。本季度广告支出（以美元计）与上季度大体相当。考虑到竞争加剧，在保增长放缓，尤其是在个人汽车险方面。想请教对未来广告支出的考量框架。显然，这些保单非常盈利。在竞争日益激烈的环境中，是否需要维持当前的广告支出水平？想进一步了解你们对未来广告支出的思路。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, Bob, we monitor that every month on an ongoing basis and monitor, most importantly, efficiency. So we want to make sure our cost per sale is lower than our targeted acquisition cost, and that remains to be the case. And Pat Callahan and his team, we do a lot of our buying of advertising internally. They look at it overall for a year with things you have to buy in advance, but ongoing, we have the lever to increase or decrease, depend on competition. That's what we'll continue to do. Again, our operating goal is to continue to grow as fast as we can, and advertising is a great lever to reach that goal.
是的，Bob，我们每个月持续监控，最重要的是监控效率。也就是说，我们要确保每笔成交成本低于我们的目标获客成本，目前情况依然如此。对于广告采购，Pat Callahan 和他的团队很多都是在内部完成的。他们会对全年做统筹规划，其中有些需要提前采购；但在日常运营中，我们有可拉动的“杠杆”，可根据竞争情况增减投放。我们会继续这么做。再强调一次，我们的经营目标是尽可能快地增长，而广告是实现这一目标的关键杠杆。
Jian Huang
Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Okay. Maybe just clarifying that point a little bit. When you say that you kind of have -- you're buying ads 12 months in advance, does that mean that essentially for the next 12 months your ad spending is more or less set already? Or are there some levers around that? Or is it just that most of it still is kind of not so certain? Just wanted to see if there's a clarification on that point.
好的，我想就这一点再澄清一下。你们提到会提前 12 个月采购广告，是否意味着未来 12 个月的广告支出基本已经锁定？还是说其中仍有可以调节的“杠杆”？或者大部分仍存在不确定性？想请你们就此进一步说明。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
We'll do some buys in advance to get some discounted buys, but -- a big majority of the ads that we buy are in the auction, and we can -- that's where we can have the levers to pull back or go forward that you've seen in the last several years.
我们会做一些提前采购以获得折扣，但——我们购买的绝大多数广告是通过竞价获取的，在那里我们可以——正如过去几年你们所看到的——灵活运用“杠杆”来收缩或加大投放。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
下一位提问来自 Wells Fargo 的 Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Greenspan
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
My first question, I was hoping you could just comment just on the competitive environment in general and what you observed in the Q3. And I guess, like a forward view, right, we've seen others pivot to growth as we moved through the year. And just how has that impacted that combined, right, with the fact that we're in this environment where you guys said in the Q you don't need that much rate right now? How does that help you formulate your view about growth rate both in the near term, like in the fourth quarter, but then also as we think about 2026?
我的第一个问题，请你们总体评价一下竞争环境，以及你们在第三季度观察到的情况。展望未来，今年以来我们看到其他公司转向增长；结合你们在 10-Q 中提到目前不太需要进一步提价的环境，这两点对你们的判断产生了怎样的影响？这将如何帮助你们形成对增长速度的看法——无论是短期（比如第四季度），还是我们展望 2026 年时？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Elyse, and thanks for acknowledging your report last night that we had strong growth in Q3 of '24 because I've been comparing the growth and the fact that we've slowed is sort of funny to me because of how much we've grown on such a big base. So I appreciate you acknowledging that. So yes, the competitive environment has gotten stronger, which we knew would happen. That's why we got out in advance of rates to capture all the growth that we did, and we did. This is when the fun starts. So competition is great. It's great for customers and consumers. And so we'll continue to find ways with which to grow. We have a lot out there in terms of as we look at each state, each channel, different factors in terms of Sams, Wrights, Robinsons, and we have a strategy to grow all of the above. And probably the biggest growth point for us, Elyse, is when we think of Robinsons. So we have -- we want to grow in every single persona.
谢谢你，Elyse，也谢谢你在昨晚的报告中肯定了我们在 2024 年第三季度的强劲增长。因为在如此庞大的基数上我们增长了这么多，再对比大家说我们“增速放缓”，这点让我觉得有些有趣，所以感谢你的认可。是的，竞争环境变得更激烈了，这是我们预期之中的。这正是我们率先推进提价、以捕捉增长机会的原因，并且我们确实做到了。现在到了更“好玩”的阶段。竞争是好事，对客户和消费者都是好事。因此我们会继续寻找各种增长方式。我们会逐州、逐渠道地审视，并结合不同客群特征（如 Sams、Wrights、Robinsons）等因素；我们的策略是对上述所有客群都实现增长。对我们来说，Elyse，最大的增长点可能在 Robinsons 客群。总之，我们希望在每一个“画像”上都实现增长。
So we love Sams as long as we can make our calendar year profitable. But we want to grow Robinsons because that market is about a $230 billion addressable market, and we have a low percentage of that share. So there's a lot of opportunity. I'll probably go into a little bit more detail than you need but I think as you think about, not just fourth quarter, but especially as we get into '26 and '27, an the area of our focus will be more Robinsons because we're in such a different position than we were a few years ago. So as you know, we needed rate increases, we needed better segmentation, we needed some cost sharing to go into the policies, we needed to exit DP3. There's a lot of things that we did that I referred you a couple different times of our 5-point blueprint to get to where we need to go to. We did just that.
因此，只要我们能在公历年度层面保持盈利，我们就非常喜欢 Sams 客群。但我们更想在 Robinsons 上实现增长，因为该市场的可覆盖规模约为 2300 亿美元，而我们目前的份额还很低，机会很大。我可能会讲得比你需要的更细一些：当你不仅看第四季度，尤其展望 2026 和 2027 年时，我们的重点会更多放在 Robinsons，因为我们与几年前相比已经处在非常不同的位置。正如你所知，我们需要提价、需要更优的细分、需要在保单中引入一定的成本分担、需要退出 DP3。我们做了很多事情，我之前多次提到我们实现目标的“五点蓝图”，而我们确实按图执行了。
We increased rates from 22% to 24%, about 55% and continue but on a much more moderate level because we're in such a different position. Our calendar year combined ratio now on property is about a 78%, and granted some of that is favorable reserve development as well as we haven't had many storms at all in 2025, but that is a great position to be in. And so as we think about our growth, we think about -- we have a framework that we're using called a new business readiness growth. And we look at the assessment of adequate rate level, segmentation, so which product is in the market, cost sharing, interstate diversification, regulation and market conditions. And when we look at all those factors, what we look at state by state is where do we want to grow and where we think we can grow and how are we positioned in those states. So currently there's about 30 states -- 33 states where we want to -- we're going to spur on growth.
我们累计提价约 22% 到 24%，总计大约 55%，且会继续推进，但力度会温和得多，因为我们的处境已经不同。我们在财产险上的公历年度综合成本率目前约为 78%；诚然，其中部分归因于有利的准备金发展以及 2025 年几乎没有大的风暴，但这依然是非常好的位置。因此在思考增长时，我们运用一个名为“新业务就绪度驱动增长”的框架。我们会评估费率是否足额、细分是否充分（也就是哪些产品在售）、成本分担、跨州分散、监管与市场环境等因素。综合这些要素后，我们逐州判断：我们想在哪里增长、在哪里能够增长、以及我们在这些州目前的站位。因此，目前大约有 30 个——准确说 33 个——州是我们将要推动增长的目标。
And about 20 of those are in our growth states that we've called growth states and 13 are more volatile. We'll be a little bit more conservative in the volatile states, but that really opens us up broadly for more Robinsons, for more growth. And as you can imagine, in John's opening statement, he talked about VIF, vehicles in force, which we don't publicly talk about. We talk about PIF. But when you compare the 4.2 million PIF growth year-over-year, that equates to about 7 million VIF growth. You can imagine that VIF growth with more Robinsons is much higher because they're multicar and multiproduct households. So competition is there. We have a lot on the horizon to spur on growth, and we're pretty excited about it.
其中约有 20 个属于我们称之为“增长型州”，另外 13 个波动性更高。在这些波动较大的州我们会更为保守，但整体上这为我们打开了更多 Robinsons 客群、更多增长的空间。正如你所能想见的，John 在开场中提到 VIF（vehicles in force，在保车辆），这是我们通常不对外披露、而更常谈 PIF 的指标。同比 420 万 PIF 的增加，大致对应约 700 万 VIF 的增长。你可以想象，如果 Robinsons 客群占比更高，VIF 的增幅会更大，因为他们通常是多车、多产品的家庭。总之，竞争确实存在；而我们也有大量即将落地的举措来促进增长，我们对此非常兴奋。
Elyse Greenspan
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
And then my follow-up is just, I guess, on margins and tariffs. It seems like from the Q commentary that you guys really have not seen an impact yet. So just want to make sure I'm reading the comments correctly. And then do you guys still expect that perhaps we could see an impact on loss trend and margins as we move through the balance of the year?
我的追问是关于利润率和关税。看起来从 10-Q 的评论来看，你们目前并没有看到明显影响。我想确认自己是否理解正确。以及，你们是否仍预计在今年剩余时间里，关税可能会对损失趋势和利润率产生影响？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, you read that exactly correct. We haven't seen much on that. It might be because there's inventory and of course the tariff schematic has changed along the way, but we're still -- we're looking at low single digits and we have the margins to be able to absorb that. So we're not too worried about tariffs at this point. Of course, that could change. But at this point, we're not too worried about it.
是的，你的理解完全正确。我们目前确实没有看到太多影响，这可能与库存有关，当然关税结构本身在过程中也有所变化。但我们的预期仍是低个位数的影响，并且我们的利润率有能力吸收这部分冲击。因此，目前我们对关税不太担心。当然，情况可能会变化，但就目前而言，我们并不太担心。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.
下一位提问来自 BMO 的 Mike Zaremski。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
My first question's on hopefully teasing out premiums per policy when we just kind of crudely divide premiums by PIF, and this is for Personal Auto. It's been slightly negative for a while now, which appears to be different from the kind of the flattish pricing you've been speaking to. So trying to tease out whether the negativity is coming from just some of the Florida rate reductions, is the December one going to be a large one if you want to preview that? Or is it coming from just other actions you're talking about policyholders switching to lower-cost policies, et cetera?
我的第一个问题是想拆解每份保单保费（将保费总额粗略地除以 PIF），针对的是个人汽车险。这个指标已经有一段时间略为负增长，这似乎与您所说的大体持平的定价不太一致。想请教这一下降主要是否来自 Florida 的费率下调？如果方便预告，12 月的那次下调是否会较大？或者更多来自其他因素，比如保单持有人转向更低成本的保单等？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I think, Mike, there's a lot of things happening. Our average written premium is affected by our rate decreases. And obviously, it went up tremendously in '23 into '24 with all of the increases that we took based on inflation. I think the reaction might be a little bit on growth, although 12% PIF growth on a 14% PIF growth to me is really unheard of. And anytime we're in anywhere near that double-digit growth, we're pretty darn excited at an 89.5% with the $950 million accrual. So the Florida situation is just that. And we're going to tell you what we know when we know it.
是的。Mike，我认为有很多因素在同时发生。我们的平均已签保费受费率下调的影响。显然，基于通胀而实施的一系列提价使得 2023 年至 2024 年该指标大幅上升。我觉得现在的反应也部分与增长有关——尽管在我看来，PIF 同比 12% 的增长、叠加此前 14% 的增长，已经非常罕见。只要增速接近两位数，在综合成本率 89.5% 且计提 9.5 亿美元的情况下，我们就相当振奋。至于 Florida，情况就是如此；我们会在掌握信息时第一时间披露。
So as John said, we'll continue to revise our accrual as the year plays out. So in a couple of weeks you'll know if the accrual has gone up or down for October. And then there are sometimes late year storms, I think in 2024, Helene and Milton were both in September and October. So we'll watch those. But I feel really good about where we're at. I mean if we had a crystal ball in Florida, we might have done things differently. But I think we have handled that really well. We're very large. They're the largest.
正如 John 所说，随着年度推进，我们会持续修订这项计提。因此再过几周，你们就会看到 10 月份的计提是上调还是下调。年底有时会出现风暴，我记得在 2024 年，Helene 和 Milton 都在 9 月和 10 月发生，我们会密切关注。但我对我们当前的处境感觉很好。坦白说，如果我们能对 Florida 了如指掌，可能会做出不同安排，但我认为我们处理得很好。我们的规模很大——他们是最大的。
And as John said in his opening statements, I -- and I've said this before, I want to commend Governor DeSantis and Commissioner Yaworsky for this legislative change with House Bill 837. It really has had a profound and a momentous effect on the state of Florida's insurance market. And I've been in this business about 38 years. I would never imagine these changes and how great they are for the benefit of Florida consumers. So we'll continue to watch that. But I think from a premium for policy, we're always going to be competitive, and segments change and that kind of all goes into the math.
同时，正如 John 在开场陈述中提到的——我也多次强调过——我要称赞 Governor DeSantis 和 Commissioner Yaworsky 推动的 House Bill 837 立法变更。它确实对 Florida 的保险市场产生了深远而重大的影响。我在这个行业大约 38 年，从未想象过这些变化会如此有利于 Florida 的消费者。我们会继续关注。但就每保单保费而言，我们始终会保持竞争力，而细分结构会变化，这些都会进入我们的模型计算。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Okay. Got it. Maybe pivoting to, Tricia, your remarks about share buybacks potentially being a bigger lever than historically. Can you talk about just the framework there? Should we -- are you alluding to the special dividend being put into buybacks instead at current valuations or for both? Or anything -- any color would be helpful.
好的，明白。那我换个方向，问问 Tricia：你提到回购可能比历史上更重要。能否谈谈你们的框架？我们是否应理解为，在当前估值下，特别股息有可能转而用于回购，还是两者并行？任何进一步的信息都会有帮助。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. When we have excess capital, we think of it in 3 ways. And obviously, we're -- I just talked a little bit when I answered Elyse's questions about our desire to continue to grow and our actions around that. And then, of course, we look at share buybacks if we believe it's under our intrinsic value. Of course, we always buy enough shares to dilute the stock compensation in any given year. We have the ability to do that. And you see in our monthly release the actual number of shares we buy back each month as well as the average price. And so you'll see that in a few weeks as well. We have a company-wide 10b5-1 that we file with certain price points to buy back stock if we think it's under our value.
是的。当我们有超额资本时，会从三方面考虑。显然，如我刚才回答 Elyse 时所说，我们希望并将继续推动增长，并已采取行动。当然，如果我们认为股价低于内在价值，也会考虑回购。并且，我们每年都会回购足够的股份来对冲股权激励带来的稀释，我们有能力做到这一点。你们可以在我们的月度披露中看到每月实际回购的股数以及平均价格，几周后你们也会看到 10 月份的数据。公司层面我们设有统一的 10b5-1 计划，在认为股价低于价值时按既定价位回购股票。
And so you'll see our actions that we took in October in a few weeks. And then we've been in hearty discussions with the Board of Directors in the last couple meetings on what we think could be a dividend. And of course, that will ultimately be their choice, and we'll have another conversation in December. And with that, we'll kind of be watching our ability to buy back more as well as what we think if we have a dividend, what it will be. But those are conversations that are constantly happening within our walls and with our Board of Directors.
因此，再过几周你们会看到我们 10 月份采取的行动。最近几次会议我们也就可能的股息与董事会进行了充分讨论。当然，最终决定权在董事会，我们会在 12 月再讨论一次。与此同时，我们会关注进一步回购的能力，以及如果发放股息，其规模将会如何。但这类讨论在公司内部和与董事会之间一直都在持续进行。
Michael Zaremski
BMO Capital Markets Equity Research
So just, Tricia, just to be clear, were you signaling a change in capital management tone by stating the buyback language? Or are you saying this is just business as usual discussion with the Board?
所以，Tricia，为了明确起见，你提到回购，是在释放资本管理基调的变化吗？还是说这只是与董事会的常规讨论？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
All I was saying was that we're very cognizant when the shares -- when we believe the shares are under our intrinsic value and we typically, if we have the capital, take action when that happens.
我的意思只是，当我们认为股价低于内在价值时，我们非常清楚这一点，并且在具备资本条件时通常会采取行动。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Wolfe Research.
下一位提问来自 Wolfe Research 的 Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui
Wolfe Research, LLC
I have a question about your Florida excess profit statute. When you perform the same exercise next year, let's call it, September for accident years '24 to '26 to see if you owe any excess profits in early '27. Is there a scenario where you'll be paying another Florida excess profit statute given all the favorable reserve development you experienced in the state in recent years? Or do the excess credits you're paying in '26 basically neutralize a lot of those excess profits that you could owe in '27?
我有一个关于你们在 Florida 的超额利润法的问题。明年你们会在 9 月左右，针对 2024–2026 事故年度做同样的评估，以判断 2027 年初是否需要返还超额利润。鉴于近几年你们在该州经历了有利的准备金发展，是否存在一种情形——你们在 2027 年还要再支付一次 Florida 的超额利润返还？或者说，你们在 2026 年支付的那些超额抵扣，基本上会把 2027 年可能需要返还的超额利润“中和”掉大部分？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Well, we don't know. And we're going to -- as I said earlier, we're going to continue to refine our accrual as each month goes by for this 3-year trailing period. It's -- and at that point, at the end of this year, we'll know the sort of fully, like you said, neutralize amount for that. And so the hard part, and we've tried to signal this about Florida is the storm season is typically at the end of the year. So we're putting another decrease in, in December. We'll watch that closely. I think John said we'll do what we can to avoid a similar situation in '27 for calendar year '26, '25, '24, but we feel good about where we're at right now with the accrual and we'll continue to revise that.
我们还不知道。正如我先前所说，在这个 3 年滚动期间内，我们会按月持续细化我们的计提。到今年年底，我们就能如你所说，较为全面地了解可被“中和”的金额。困难之处在于——我们也一直在提示——Florida 的风暴季通常在年底。因此我们会在 12 月再实施一次费率下调，并密切关注。我想 John 也说过，我们会尽力避免在 2027 年针对 2026、2025、2024 公历年度出现类似的情形。目前我们对这项计提的状态感觉良好，并会继续进行修订。
Tracy Benguigui
Wolfe Research, LLC
Okay. And you said that Florida auto business is more than 50% bigger now than in '22, and you're managing the profitability in Florida to avoid those excess profits and you took two rate cuts and you're going to take another one. So my question is on bundling. Can you share how much of your homeowner policies have grown in Florida? And how you're thinking about your property exposure relative to your risk appetite?
好的。你们提到 Florida 的汽车险业务规模较 2022 年已扩大逾 50%，你们也在 Florida 管理盈利以避免出现超额利润，并且已经两次下调费率且还将再下调一次。所以我的问题与捆绑销售相关：你们在 Florida 的房主险保单增长了多少？以及，关于财产险的敞口，你们如何在风险偏好下进行权衡？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. Our property growth in Florida has been minimal. Several years ago, we reviewed our policies in Florida to get to where we are in terms of our readiness growth. We had a lot of DP-3. We had a lot of coastal properties. And so we had a lot of nonrenewals that we gave to another company to be able to write. We will write a little bit in Florida now, mostly new construction. That's a place where, like we say when we talk about volatile states that we will not be -- have huge aggressive growth, but we'll grow where we think we can and make our target profit margins. But the growth in the property book has not been huge.
是的。我们在 Florida 的财产险增长非常有限。几年前，我们审视了在 Florida 的保单组合，以推进我们的“就绪度增长”目标。当时我们持有大量 DP-3 以及大量沿海物业。因此，我们进行了大量不续保，并转由其他公司承保。当前我们在 Florida 仍会少量承保，主要是新建房产。正如我们谈到波动性较高州时所说，那并不是我们会大举激进扩张的地方，但我们会在自认为可行的领域适度增长并实现目标利润率。总体而言，财产险保册的增长并不大。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.
下一位提问来自 JPMorgan 的 Jimmy Bhullar。
Jamminder Bhullar
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
I had a question just on competition in Personal Auto. Most competitors have been increasing marketing spending in recent months. Many have alluded to potential price reductions as well, just given strong margins. So your comments on competition, is that what they reflect? Or are you seeing competitors get more aggressive with pricing and writing business either with sort of implied losses or very low margins? So just whether…
我有一个关于个人汽车险竞争的问题。最近几个月，大多数竞争对手都在增加市场营销支出。鉴于利润率强劲，很多公司也在暗示可能会降价。那么，你们对竞争的评论是否反映了这些情况？或者你们是否看到竞争对手在定价和承保上更激进，哪怕意味着隐含亏损或非常低的利润率？所以究竟是……
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, it's hard to say. I think we're seeing all the above. I think we're seeing a lot of -- we saw a lot of price decreases. We've seen more increase in advertising, and I think that all goes to competitiveness. So I think we think that's good for consumers. And when we think of the strategic pillars, that's one big piece of it, but you have to have a really great brand. And our brand has continued to evolve and will continue to evolve to get us on that short list. You have to have for us broad coverage where, when and how customers want to shop. And we have that across the board from our independent agent channel, our direct channel and then we have multiple different areas with which to buy our products or the products of our unaffiliated partners.
是的，这很难一概而论。我认为上述情况我们都在看到：价格下调不少，广告投放也在增加，而这些都与竞争力相关。从消费者角度看，这是好事。站在我们的战略支柱来看，这只是其中一环，你还必须拥有真正强大的品牌。我们的品牌在持续演进，并将继续演进，以确保进入消费者的“候选短名单”。我们还必须在客户想要的时间、地点以及方式提供广泛的购买渠道。我们已经具备这些能力——从独立代理人渠道到直销渠道，并且还有多种购买途径，既可以买我们的产品，也可以买我们无关联合作伙伴的产品。
And then we have -- and this is sometimes underestimated because part of what's been Progressive's success is our people and our culture. That's really hard to put on a spreadsheet for an analyst. We just finished our Gallup survey. We're in the 99% of culture and engagement. That's really important because when you have times where you want to get something done, whether it's growth or decrease expenses or roll out a new product, execution is the name of the game, you have to have a great culture to be able to do that because people want to be able to rally around a singular goal. So those four things we think about all the time. But as far as competitive prices, we're seeing increased advertising and much more competitive pricing out there.
另外还有一点——这一点有时被低估了——Progressive 的成功有相当部分来自我们的员工与文化。这一点很难体现在分析师的表格里。我们刚完成 Gallup 调查，在文化与敬业度方面处于 99% 水平。这非常重要，因为无论是推动增长、降低费用，还是推出新品，关键在于执行力；而要做到这一点，必须拥有优秀的文化，让大家能够围绕单一目标形成合力。以上四点是我们始终在思考的。但就价格竞争而言，我们确实看到广告投放增加、价格更具竞争力。
Jamminder Bhullar
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Okay. And then maybe on a different topic, if I think about your Commercial Lines business, I would have thought that it would be growing at a fairly fast clip since you were expanding your target markets, broadening coverage, adding new types of coverages, policies. And if we look at the numbers the last couple of years, they've been high single digits, which is decent, but high single-digit premium growth the last couple of quarters. I think premium growth has actually been negative off of modest comp. So how do you think about like maybe talk about your aspirations or growth potential of your Commercial Lines business over the longer term?
好的。换个话题，你们的 Commercial Lines 业务——考虑到你们在拓展目标市场、扩大保障范围、增加新的险别与保单类型——我原本预期增速会更快一些。而从过去几年的数据看，保费增速处于高个位数，这当然不差，但最近几个季度的保费增速是高个位数，我认为在温和的基数下，保费增速实际上已经转负。你们如何看待长期而言 Commercial Lines 业务的目标与增长潜力？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I think longer term we have great aspirations. Clearly, FHT has been a headwind, those are -- that was -- it's higher margin business, but we have slowed growth there, a lot due to both rate and non-rate actions. And we've increased our growth in business owners and contractors which are a lower premium, and we've done some 6-month policy. So there -- so what you're seeing is real in the data. However, I think you're correct. We have a couple areas that we have grown over the years and really wanted to understand them more deeply, and we have pretty complex plans to spur on growth in a couple different areas. I'm not going to talk about those today. I'll talk about those maybe as we get into them. More specifically, I don't want to show my cards. But yes, we believe that the runway in Commercial Lines continues to be really strong.
是的。长期来看我们的目标很高。显然，FHT 一直是逆风，它是更高利润率的业务，但我们在该领域放缓了增长，原因既有费率层面也有非费率举措。同时，我们加大了在 Business Owners 与 Contractors 领域的增长，这些业务保费较低，我们也推出了一些 6 个月期保单。所以你在数据中看到的情况是真实的。不过我同意你的判断：我们在若干领域这些年都有所拓展，并且希望更深入地理解它们；我们也制定了相当复杂的计划，准备在几个不同领域推动增长。今天先不展开，等真正启动时再具体沟通——暂时不想“亮底牌”。但可以肯定的是，我们认为 Commercial Lines 的跑道依然非常长。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James.
下一位提问来自 Raymond James 的 Gregory Peters。
Charles Peters
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
In your letter and in previous comments, you've talked about new products, your Personal Auto product, 8.9 and 9.0, and then in the property area, your next-gen product, 5.0. So as we're sitting here on the outside watching these developments, trying to understand what does Personal Auto product 9.0 mean versus product 8.9 and is the difference that material? And the same question would be applied to the property next-generation product, too?
在你们的股东信和之前的评论中，你们谈到了新产品：个人汽车险产品 8.9 和 9.0，以及财产险的下一代产品 5.0。身处局外观察这些进展，我们想弄清楚：与 8.9 相比，个人汽车险产品 9.0 的含义是什么？差异是否足够显著？同样的问题也适用于你们的财产险下一代产品。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. That's a great question. First, I would say we're not very creative when we name our new product model. So I'm going to give you that because you'll see 5 -- we're on 5.0 and 5.1 in property, 8.9, 9.1. I'm going to let Pat take that. But what I would say is years ago, probably around 2016 maybe, we decided that we really wanted to have the pace of our models increase to get more and more variables out there that are predictive of either loss cost or if we wanted to increase a certain segment like the Robinsons. And that's why we end up doing that. But -- and we -- I don't really think we're going to go into the specific variables, but I'll let Pat talk about that a little bit more because we have very large R&D groups that work on these product models constantly. Pat, do you want to add anything?
是的，这是个好问题。首先，我要说我们在给新产品模型命名方面并不太有创意，这点就先交代一下——你会看到财产险已经到 5.0、5.1，个人汽车险有 8.9、9.1。关于细节我请 Pat 来回答。不过我想强调的是，早在几年前（大概 2016 年左右），我们就决定加快产品模型的迭代节奏，引入越来越多能够预测损失成本的变量，或者用于提升某些细分客群（比如 Robinsons）的变量。这就是我们这样做的原因。至于具体变量，我们不打算逐一展开，但我会让 Pat 再补充一些，因为我们有非常庞大的研发团队持续打磨这些产品模型。Pat，你要补充吗？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Sure. So from a product perspective, we try to do a couple things every time we roll out a new product. And the first is primarily to match rate to risk better than we did in a prior product. And insurance is a scale game. We have more data than most competitors, and our product is more complex. So we have more segmented or finite data than virtually all competitors in market. So that data enables us to solve what predicts and fits losses more precisely and more accurately than others can. So the first and foremost is to match rate to risk.
当然可以。从产品角度看，每次推出新版本我们都会做几件事。首先、也是最重要的一点，是把费率与风险的匹配做得比上一代更好。保险是规模生意。我们拥有比大多数竞争对手更多的数据，产品也更复杂，因此在市场上我们掌握的细分、颗粒化数据几乎超过所有竞争者。这些数据让我们能比别人更精确地找到预测并拟合损失的因子与模型。所以第一要务就是让费率更好地匹配风险。
Second, though is to introduce differentiating coverages that meet consumers' needs to transfer risk to us as the carrier to smooth household cash flows. So a couple examples of that between 8.9 and 9.0. So 8.9, we introduced Progressive vehicle protection. Think of it as a mechanical breakdown coverage for vehicles that supplements a new car warranty and provides things like lost key fob and dent and ding repair as well as supplementing the OEM warranty as the powertrain warranty or bumper-to-bumper warranty kind of runs off on a new car.
其次，我们会引入差异化的保障，以满足消费者把风险转移给我们（承保人）的需求，从而平滑家庭现金流。以 8.9 与 9.0 为例：在 8.9 中，我们上线了 Progressive vehicle protection（可把它理解为车辆机械故障保障），用于补充新车保修，并提供诸如车钥匙遥控器遗失、小凹痕/划痕修复等服务；同时在新车的动力总成保修或整车保修（bumper-to-bumper）逐步到期时，对原厂保修（OEM warranty）形成补充。
In 9.0, similarly, we come out with new segmentation where we solve all the math and the factors to fit the loss curve more precisely while also introducing with 9.0 embedded renters. So now you can embed and buy a renter's insurance coverage as part of your progressive auto policy. So we recognize that renters insurance is a potential gateway product for us in the property space, and we want to make sure that we are attracting multiline customers early in their insurance shopping and buying journey, and we want to protect their household goods as part of a renter's product and allow them to move them into a home or a condo as they change their living situation. So really, a couple things we do with every product, but primarily it's solve the math to make sure we're as accurate as we can, leveraging our massive scale; and secondarily, get that product to market, as Tricia mentioned, as quick as possible.
在 9.0 中，我们同样引入了新的细分定价，重新解题并校准因子，以更精确地拟合损失曲线；同时在 9.0 推出了嵌入式租房险（embedded renters）——现在客户可以把租房险嵌入并随 Progressive 汽车险一并购买。我们认为租房险是我们在财产险领域的入口型产品，目标是在客户保险选购—购买旅程的早期就吸引多险种客户（multiline），以租房险来保护其家庭财物，并在其居住形态变化时顺畅过渡到自住房或公寓的相关保障。概括来说，每次产品迭代我们都做两件事：其一，解好“数学题”，在规模优势下尽可能提高定价准确度；其二，如 Tricia 所言，尽快把产品推向市场。
Charles Peters
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Research Division
As a follow-up question, I'm going to focus pivot to technology and autonomous driving. The new cars coming out have a lot of embedded technology. Some of them actually can drive themselves to locations, the new Tesla I'm thinking about, in particular. So I think it's appropriate for us to -- as we think about Progressive, what's your view on this technology, emerging technology? And in that moment in time maybe 15 years from now when we get to a fully autonomous type of environment, can you talk about how the company is thinking about that? And any color there would be helpful.
追问一个与技术和自动驾驶相关的问题。新车配备了大量嵌入式技术，其中一些（我特别想到新的 Tesla）实际上可以自行开到目的地。就 Progressive 而言，你们如何看待这类新兴技术？如果在大约 15 年后进入完全自动驾驶的环境，你们公司对此是如何思考和布局的？任何补充信息都将有所帮助。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. We've been watching this for many, many years. I think we first did our first, what we call runway model in 2012 and to try to understand, okay, the implications of cars that are safer. First of all, safer cars are better for the world. So we think that's a great thing. And I think we build that into our product as we think about vehicles that have safer components, just like you would have at any time with seat belts or backup cameras, those sorts of things. So we're continuing to revise our model. In fact, we're in the midst of doing it right now to try to understand when that will impact us. And we see a lot -- we gather a lot of data. We see a lot of data. Even when you compare like the Waymo cars in Austin, and we look at our relationships with TNC, we've not seen too much of a change and the changes there with pretty heavy Waymo use has not muted TNC miles. So we're continuing to watch that getting as granular as we can.
是的。我们已经关注这件事很多很多年了。我想我们第一次做所谓的“runway model”是在 2012 年，目的是试着理解更安全车辆会带来怎样的影响。首先，更安全的汽车对世界更好，这是件好事。我们也把这一点纳入产品设计思维中：当车辆拥有更安全的部件时，就像任何时候都会配备安全带或倒车影像那样。为此我们一直在修订模型，事实上我们现在正处在修订过程中，试图弄清这会在何时对我们产生影响。我们收集并观察到大量数据。即便拿 Austin 的 Waymo 车辆作比较，再结合我们与 TNC 的合作关系来看，我们并未看到太多变化；在 Waymo 使用强度相当高的地方，TNC 的里程也并未被压制。我们会继续尽可能细化地监测这些动态。
But at a higher level, what we did years ago is we constructed the 3 horizons to really understand how we can grow across the board, not just in where we've typically grown in our private Passenger Auto and our Commercial Auto, which we're still going to continue to do. But that's when we really built our Commercial Lines product models out. So think of BOP fleet, our relationships with our TNC partners and many other things. And then, of course, our Horizon 3, which are smaller now, but we believe will be bigger in the future. We're going to continue to look at that, we call it, execute, expand, explore, to make sure that we have a really robust model as cars get safer and as frequency goes down, and we'll watch that and make determination of what we need to do to continue to grow.
但在更高层面上，几年前我们搭建了“三个地平线”的框架，目的是系统理解我们如何实现全面增长，而不仅是我们传统增长的 Private Passenger Auto 和 Commercial Auto（这些我们仍会继续做）。当时我们也真正把 Commercial Lines 的产品模型搭建了起来，比如 BOP fleet、与 TNC 伙伴的合作关系等诸多方向。至于 Horizon 3，目前规模还小，但我们相信未来会更大。我们将继续沿着“execute、expand、explore”的路径推进，确保当车辆更安全、事故频率下降时，我们依然拥有一个非常稳健的增长模型；我们会据此持续观察并决定为维持增长应当采取的行动。
And we talk about this all the time because it's important for society, but it's also important for us to know areas where we can grow, where we can leverage our people, our data, our scale to grow in different ways, and that's what we talk about as we think about autonomous vehicles. It's -- the time frame is always sort of the big question mark. Because if you look at articles in 2012, it would have said everyone is driving around playing bridge in the back of their car in 2019 and that hasn't been the case. So we still think there's a lot to go. Again, we don't have our heads in the sand, and we'll continue to think about growth in different areas.
我们经常谈论这些问题，因为它既关乎社会意义，也关系到我们自身要明确在哪里可以增长、如何利用我们的人才、数据与规模以不同方式实现增长——这就是我们讨论自动驾驶时的出发点。时间表始终是最大的问号。因为如果去看 2012 年的文章，会说 2019 年大家已经在车后排打桥牌了，但事实并非如此。所以我们认为这条路还有很长要走。当然，我们不会“把头埋在沙子里”，会继续在不同方向上思考并布局增长。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays.
下一位提问来自 Barclays 的 Alex Scott。
Taylor Scott
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
First one I had is on shopping and retention was just interested if you could compare sort of the time period where you were taking bigger increases or the industry was taking bigger increases and the shopping activity that was going on then in sort of reaction to higher prices as opposed to maybe what you're expecting over the next 12 months on retention related more to, well, you could shop and go get a lower price potentially somewhere. Are you seeing different kinds of sensitivity to that related to up in pricing versus potential for down?
我的第一个问题关于比价与留存。我想请你们对比两个时期：一个是你们或行业整体大幅提价时，因价格上升而引发的消费者比价行为；另一个是展望未来 12 个月，在留存方面更多与“消费者可以比价并可能在别处获得更低价格”相关的情形。对于“涨价期”与“潜在降价期”，你们是否看到不同类型的敏感度变化？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I mean I think we're seeing a lot of shopping, which means all customers are going to shop, including ours, and you see that in our PLE. Our feeling is just as we talked about in the Q, oftentimes our customers will reach out to us, and we can do a policy review with our cancer preservation team to see if there's something we can do to help them out from a price perspective. If we end up writing a brand-new policy that starts the clock ticking. So that is a little bit of a headwind to PLE, but not when we think about our consumer life expectancy, our household life expectancy. When you look at that, we don't share that data externally, we share PLE. But if you look at our, say, household life expectancy of having a product with Progressive, that's relatively flat. So we feel decent about that.
是的。我认为目前比价行为很多，这意味着所有客户都会比价，包括我们的客户，这一点可以从我们的 PLE（保单寿命预期）中看到。正如我们在 10-Q 中所谈，客户常会联系到我们，我们可以由“客户保留团队”为其做保单回顾，看看能否在价格层面帮助他们。如果最终需要重开一份新保单，那“计时器”就会重新开始。这会对 PLE 形成一些逆风，但若从消费者寿命预期、家庭寿命预期（在 Progressive 持有产品的时长）来看——这部分我们对外不披露数据，只披露 PLE——我们的家庭寿命预期总体比较平稳。因此我们对此感觉良好。
Now if you shop and you end up leaving us, we believe that is just adverse selection because we believe we have the most current up-to-date price. As Pat talked about and I talked about briefly, our models are constantly changing and revising them to make them more specific to rate versus risk. And if you end up leaving, we believe that we have more data than wherever that customer is going to in terms of profitability.
当然，如果你比价之后离开我们，我们认为这更多是逆向选择，因为我们相信我们提供的是最新、最到位的定价。正如 Pat 和我简要提到的，我们的模型在持续更新，以使费率与风险的匹配更精确。如果客户最终离开，我们相信在盈利性方面，我们拥有的数据深度通常优于客户前往的其他公司。
Taylor Scott
Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Got it. That's helpful. And then going back to the capital discussion, I mean, M&A was something you didn't mention as much relative to like the buyback and variable dividend conversation. And just in light of that conversation you had on autonomous and potentially expanding into other products and so forth. I mean, how does M&A fit into that? How do you think about M&A over a little bit longer time period? And why wouldn't you use a really strong capital position now to explore that?
明白了，这很有帮助。回到资本配置的话题，相比回购和可变股息，你们对 M&A 着墨不多。结合你们刚才谈到的自动驾驶与潜在拓品扩线，M&A 在其中如何定位？从更长周期看，你们如何看待并购？既然目前资本实力很强，为什么不借此积极探索并购？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
I mean M&A is really complicated. We've done a couple of acquisitions in the last 10 or so years and they were very specific. So we bought ASI, which is now Progressive Home because we wanted that bundled customer and access to that customer, especially in the agency channel. We bought Protective a few years ago to increase our fleet capacity and we'll continue to kind of close the gap on that on the Commercial Lines part. But acquisitions can be tough, and integrations can be tough. So we want to make sure it's the right company, the right culture and something that can be additive.
并购确实很复杂。过去约十年我们做过几笔且都很“有的放矢”。我们收购了 ASI（现为 Progressive Home），是为了获取捆绑客户，尤其是在代理人渠道的触达。几年前我们收购了 Protective，以提升车队承保能力，并将在 Commercial Lines 继续补齐这块能力。但并购很难，整合更难，因此必须确保目标公司合适、文化契合、且能真正产生增量价值。
So if we think we want to grow and there's a company that has a bunch of private passenger auto that we believe we can get anyway, I'm not sure you want to pay the premium on that. That said, we have a group, a corporate development group that's always scanning to look to see if something makes sense and we always want to have dry powder in case something comes up. But again, that's something that I think every company does, including us, in terms of just making sure we're on the growth trajectory. Do you want to -- John, do you want to reiterate sort of our capital structure and how we think about regulatory contingent in excess?
换言之，如果我们要增长，而某家公司拥有一堆私家车险保单，而这些业务我们本来也能以较低成本在市场上获取，那为其支付并购溢价就未必划算。话虽如此，我们有企业发展团队在持续扫描机会；一旦出现合适标的，我们也希望手中有“干火药”。这些原则各家公司（包括我们）都会遵循，以确保不偏离增长轨道。John，要不要再强调一下我们的资本结构观念，以及如何看待监管资本、应急资本与超额资本的运用？
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
Sure. So M&A would be one deployment of excess capital in our minds. Reinvesting capital in the core business is always the first option that we pursue as obviously our returns in that space have been very good. We also obviously considered to previous discussions here the dividend and buyback. And as Tricia noted earlier, as we believe the stock is below what we view as fair market, we will be in market buying back shares when we have the capital to do so. And obviously, right now, our capital position is robust.
当然。在我们看来，并购是超额资本的一种用途；但把资本再投入核心业务始终是第一优先，因为那里我们的回报显著。其次是股息与回购：如 Tricia 先前所言，只要我们认为股价低于公允价值、且具备资本条件，我们会在市场上回购股票。显而易见，目前我们的资本状况很雄厚。
So we -- as Tricia noted, we have a corporate development team. They are constantly looking at opportunities. And as she said, those opportunities would be focused on expanding the breadth of offerings for Progressive and less so around adding to our core products as our market share growth has shown pretty consistently that we can acquire that business efficiently and effectively in the marketplace, and we think that's the better way to go.
因此，正如 Tricia 所说，我们的企业发展团队在持续寻找机会，但这些机会更偏向扩展 Progressive 的产品广度，而非简单叠加核心产品的规模。因为我们的市场份额增长已反复证明，在核心产品上，我们可以在市场中以高效率、低成本获取业务，我们认为那才是更优路径。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.
下一位提问来自 Bank of America 的 Josh Shanker。
Joshua Shanker
BofA Securities, Research Division
A couple of things. I'm looking at the Travelers numbers and the Allstate numbers and Hartford's and I have some guesses around GEICO's numbers looking at what they've done. And it doesn't seem like they're growing very quickly as Progressive's net policy count growth has decelerated. I'm not looking for you to name names, maybe you have some thoughts on where the business is churning to, whether it's mutuals, whether it's smaller competitors who are stronger than they've been in the past, whether it's direct business that's going to agencies. Where do you think the churn is moving towards?
几个问题。我在看 Travelers、Allstate、Hartford 的数据，也根据他们的动作对 GEICO 的数字有些猜测。看起来当 Progressive 的净保单数增速放缓时，他们的增长也并不快。我不需要你点名，但想听听你们怎么看业务在向哪里“流转”：是流向 mutuals，还是变得比过去更强的小型竞争对手，抑或是从直销流向代理渠道？你们认为这股 churn 主要流向何处？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Well, I think that -- and I won't talk specifically about competitors either, but there have been competitors that were all captive and now have access to a nonstandard independent agent channel. There's competitors that were only direct that are trying to get into the agency channel. We've always been broad. So that's really the beautiful part about our growth and trajectory, and that's important part to make sure we are where customers are. And so I won't talk about where things are coming from. But again, I have to reiterate our growth is substantial based on the best year in the history of Progressive. So much of that growth comes to us.
我认为——我也不会具体谈竞争对手——有些原本全是 captive 的竞争对手如今进入了非标独立代理渠道；也有原本只做直销的在尝试进入代理渠道。我们的覆盖一直很广，这正是我们增长与发展轨迹的亮点所在，也确保我们始终在客户所在之处。因此我不具体谈来源。但我要再次强调，相对于 Progressive 历史上最佳年份而言，我们的增长仍然相当可观，其中很大一部分增长流向了我们。
And so we feel great about that, and we'll continue to grow. And I think I've said this the last couple calls that I wanted to make sure as we compare ourselves to the best year in the history of Progressive, that we're pragmatic about the fact that we still grew PIFs 4.2 million year-over-year, which is substantial, especially at the margins that we have. So that gives us the opportunity to continue to spur on growth, especially with our efficiency around our media spend.
对此我们感觉很棒，并将继续增长。我想我在近几次电话会上都说过：即便与 Progressive 历史最佳年份相比，我们仍同比新增了 420 万 PIF，这相当可观，尤其是在我们当前的利润率水平下。这使我们能够继续推动增长，尤其是在媒体投放效率方面把握住机会。
Joshua Shanker
BofA Securities, Research Division
And then changing gears a little bit and following up on some other questions. From 2007 to 2019, the dividend program at Progressive is pretty formulaic. We could play at home using gain share month-to-month to figure it out. And then I think in '19, you said there were so many opportunities for investment that you don't want to be forced into that paradigm, and it became less possible for us to follow along. And now while you said when the stock is attractive to us, we would also be repurchasers of that, if that were the right thing to do. Is there any formula or way that investors can think about the transparency of capital return the way it was prior to the 2020 year?
换个话题并跟进之前的问题。2007 到 2019 年，Progressive 的分红计划相当公式化，我们可以用月度 gain share 在家“算”出来。然后我记得在 2019 年，你们表示投资机会很多，不想被那种范式束缚，此后外界也更难“跟得上”了。现在你们又提到，如果股价有吸引力且合适，会回购股票。是否还有类似的公式或方式，让投资者像 2020 年之前那样把握资本回报的透明度？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Probably not. That was pretty formulaic, and we were -- one of the reasons we changed that to go from the gain share was that we were experiencing high growth, and we needed that capital to grow. And so we didn't want to have something that we needed to pay out when the better use of that capital was to grow the firm, which is what we were doing over those years. But that program worked well during that time frame but no longer served us. I mean how you can think about it is we have a lot of capital right now. The Board will make a decision as we do in our 10b5-1 for stock buybacks. The Board will make a decision to make sure that we think about that and the best use of it and the best use of any capital returns to our shareholders. And can't give you formula because, again, we do want to have dry powder. We want to make sure that we thought of a bunch of contingencies. But I think that's -- and that's sort of what I tried to say in my letter is that we feel like we have excess capital at this juncture.
大概没有。早先确实很公式化。我们之所以从 gain share 转型，其中一个原因是我们处于高速增长阶段，需要资本来支持增长。因此当资本更好的用途是做大公司规模时，我们不希望被“必须支付”的安排所束缚，这正是那些年我们在做的。那套方案在当时行之有效，但后来不再适用。你可以这样理解：我们目前资本充裕。董事会会像我们在 10b5-1 回购计划那样作出决策，确保把资本用于最合适的地方、以最合适的方式回馈股东。我们无法给出公式，因为我们确实希望手里保有“干火药”，并确保考虑到各种或有情形。我在信中想表达的正是：此时此刻我们拥有超额资本。
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
I might add a bit on that, Josh. So you all recognize our regulatory capital needs. So historically we've been in the 3:1 range for our Personal Lines businesses -- Personal Auto business, excuse me, and about half that for home. You might have noted in the Q that we now have approval in a couple of key markets to move to 3.5:1 predominantly for our Personal Auto businesses, but a fairly broad approval so we can move operating leverage higher. So you can do the math around what required surplus is necessary. And when we do that math, we look forward, of course, and we expect to grow. And then we have that contingency capital layer that doesn't change based on that regulatory layer and that is intended to ensure that we, on a modeled basis, have a very low percentage chance of needing additional surplus.
我补充一点，Josh。大家都清楚我们的监管资本需求：历史上个人险（更准确说是 Personal Auto）大约是 3:1，房屋险大约是一半。你也许注意到在本季 10-Q 中，我们获批在若干关键市场将（主要是 Personal Auto 的）杠杆提高到 3.5:1，而且授权范围相当广，使我们可以提升经营杠杆。这样一来，所需盈余你们可以据此测算。我们做测算时也会展望未来、假设增长。同时我们设有与监管层面无关的应急资本层，旨在模型层面将需要追加盈余的概率降到极低。
Capital in excess of that, again, we first want to reinvest. But secondly, we look to dividends and buybacks to the extent we feel our stock is undervalued. But you can come to a pretty close estimate of what we consider capital in excess of regulatory and contingency and that would be the capital from which a variable dividend would come. Now what portion of that is up to ultimately the Board. But that is a good way to frame what a variable dividend or first excess capital would be, but secondly, what a variable dividend would be.
超出上述层级的资本，我们首先考虑再投入核心业务；其次，在我们认为股价被低估时，会考虑分红与回购。你们可以较为接近地估算出我们认为“超出监管与应急层”的资本规模——可变分红就源自这部分资本。当然，具体比例最终由董事会决定。但这提供了一个很好的框架：先界定“超额资本”的池子，其次据此思考“可变分红”的潜在规模。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.
下一位提问来自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。
Jon Paul Newsome
Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Was hoping you could give us a little bit more thought on and information on the severity trends for auto, both the private passenger and Commercial Auto businesses. It looks like severity is accelerating a little bit in Personal Auto and a little bit more about why that may or may not be happening. And similarly, in Commercial Auto, you've got some peers that have had some pretty significant troubles in that line. Any thoughts on where you may or may not be experiencing similar trends for them?
请你们多谈谈汽车险的赔付严重度趋势（severity），包括个人乘用车与商用车两块。看起来个人汽车险的严重度略有加速，请解释一下为何会（或不会）出现这种情况。类似地，在商用车方面，你们的一些同行在该业务线上遇到了相当明显的麻烦。对于你们是否也在经历类似趋势，有何看法？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, Paul, that's a good question. Just as a reminder, when we look at severity trends, we report out incurred and a lot of our competitors report out in paid. So as an example, when you look at our PD from quarter 3 '24 to '25, it appears to be about 7%. We had a large decrease in reserves in quarter 3 '24, about 2.5 points. So that would be about 4.5 points versus the 7. So that's where it might be a little bit different comparison. BI continues to be specials are outpacing attorney rep, meds are up. So -- and actually some states that minimum limits have gone up. So we feel like industry severity where we're pretty close to the industry on the private passenger auto side. On the Commercial Lines side, I feel like we are in a better position than most of our competitors. We got ahead of rate. The severity is up. But again, same sort of thing with you've got high limits, you've got attorney reps. And -- but we feel good about where we're at from a margin perspective and our ability to grow perspective as well.
是的，Paul，这是个好问题。先提醒一点：我们观察严重度趋势时披露的是“已发生基准”（incurred），而很多竞争对手披露的是“已支付基准”（paid）。举例来说，观察我们 PD（财产损失项）从 2024 年三季度到 2025 年三季度，表面上约为 7%。但我们在 2024 年三季度做过较大的准备金释放，约 2.5 个百分点，因此可比口径大概是 4.5 个百分点而非 7 个百分点，这就是可比口径差异所在。BI（人身伤害）方面，“specials（经济损失项）”增长快于“attorney rep（律师代理案件占比）”，医疗费用（meds）在上升；另外，部分州的最低限额也上调了。总体看，个人乘用车一侧，我们与行业的严重度大致一致。商用险方面，我认为我们的处境好于多数竞争对手：我们在提价上走在前面。严重度确实在上升，但同样存在高保额与律师代理等因素。从利润率与增长能力的角度看，我们对自身当前位置感到满意。
Jon Paul Newsome
Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
Maybe a second question and a different one. Could you talk a little bit about the level of telematics and whether or not we're getting to or at least closer to a point where that is a more mature part of what Progressive does in terms of usage and the ability to slice and dice?
第二个不同方向的问题：能否谈谈车载远程信息处理（telematics）的渗透水平？在使用广度与精细化定价能力上，我们是否已经到达或正在接近一个更成熟的阶段？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I mean telematics has always been a key part of us understanding. I threw out some specific data that we have on our OBD device, I think I did, at least on -- I guess maybe I didn't. It was on frequency. We know from our OBD device that vehicle miles traveled have been down about 4% in the quarter. So those are kind of things we can point to as we try to dissect and attribute frequency and severity changes. It's -- we have our mobile device, which is the majority of what people choose now in 47 states. So we feel like it's a really powerful part of our variables. And more importantly, for customers that drive safely, it is really an ability to lower your insurance rates pretty substantially. And so that's really the main component of it. And we learn a lot. We have many, many, many miles. How many miles do we have now, do you think? Some billions – yes, a lot of miles, a lot of data. And so it will continue to be a big part of it. I'm not sure if that answers your question.
当然。telematics 一直是我们理解风险的关键组成。关于 OBD 设备的数据——主要与事故频率相关——我们知道本季度基于 OBD 的“行驶里程（VMT）”下降了约 4%。这类数据有助于我们剖析并归因频率与严重度的变化。我们还有手机端方案，目前在 47 个州成为多数客户的选择。因此 telematics 是我们变量体系中非常有力的一环。更重要的是，对安全驾驶的客户而言，它可以显著降低其保费——这是其关键价值。我们也从中学到很多：累计里程数以十亿英里计，数据非常庞大。因此，telematics 未来仍将是重要组成。不确定这是否完全回答了你的问题。
Jon Paul Newsome
Piper Sandler & Co., Research Division
I was just trying to get a sense of whether or not we're getting to a point where the amount of folks that are using the telematics is where you can sort of a maximum given how certain percentage will never use it, right? So just whether or not we're getting towards the maturity of the product itself.
我主要想判断：使用 telematics 的客户占比是否已接近“天花板”（毕竟总会有一部分人永远不会使用），也就是说，这个产品本身是否正在走向成熟期？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
I think we have an opportunity to increase that, specifically on the agency channel, is what I would say.
我认为仍有提升空间，尤其是在代理人渠道。
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Yes. What I would add to that is telematics is a really predictive rating variable, but it's not one size fits all. So we continue to collect data, we continue to innovate, and we continue to refine how we use that data against what you would expect to see from similar drivers and similar vehicles to rate more accurately. So telematics is a broad brush. And while we're seeing strong consumer adoption, and I think your intuition there is that consumers are getting more comfortable with monitoring on a continuous basis, which, as Tricia mentioned, is just a great way to modify their own behavior to control their insurance costs. But we are not standing still by any means. We have an entire team that leverages larger and larger data sets on a continuous basis to refine how accurately we can use it to ensure that people are getting the most competitive price that's personalized for them and how they drive.
我补充一点：telematics 是非常有预测力的定价变量，但并非“一刀切”。我们持续采集数据、持续创新，并持续改进使用这些数据的方式——将其与“相似驾驶员、相似车辆”的预期表现对照，以更精准定价。telematics 是一把“宽刷”。我们确实看到消费者采纳度在提升；你的直觉没错——消费者对持续性监测越来越适应，这也如 Tricia 所说，是帮助他们自我纠正驾驶行为、控制保险成本的好方法。当然我们不会停步：我们有专门团队不断利用更大的数据集来细化其应用精度，确保消费者拿到与其个性化驾驶表现最匹配、最具竞争力的价格。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
And one thing I'll mention, which is a little bit further afield but important because it's important for consumer safety, is we have the ability for -- to understand if people have been in accidents and whether they need a tow truck or an ambulance, I think is a really key, important part of feeling like you're cared for as a customer with our snapshot devices or mobile devices.
再补充一点，稍微偏题但对消费者安全很重要：通过我们的 snapshot 设备或手机端方案，我们能够识别客户是否发生了事故以及是否需要拖车或救护车。这种“被关照”的体验对客户而言至关重要。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Ryan Tunis with Cantor Fitzgerald.
下一位提问来自 Cantor Fitzgerald 的 Ryan Tunis。
Ryan Tunis
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
I just had a follow-up on what's going on in Florida and wanted to know if I'm thinking about something right. But clearly that's been an important market for Progressive. I think you guys have top market share there by a mile. I guess my perception has always been an important reason for that is it's a tricky market to underwrite. But talking about or listening to some of the tort reforms, it sounds like it's become a more insurable market. So I guess my concern would be just like any state where you had meaningful amounts of tort reform kind of creates a lever for competition to come in. So I'm wondering if I'm thinking about that right or if there's something maybe that's unique to Florida that we wouldn't necessarily see in some random state like Minnesota.
我想就 Florida 的情况追问一下，看看我的理解是否正确。显然，那里对 Progressive 来说是非常重要的市场，我认为你们在那里拥有遥遥领先的市场份额。我的一贯看法是，其中一个重要原因在于该州核保很棘手。不过，从近来的侵权法（tort）改革看，Florida 似乎变得更“可保”。因此我担心的是：就像其他经历过大幅侵权法改革的州一样，这会为竞争者进入提供杠杆。我这样理解是否正确？还是说 Florida 有一些独特之处，与比如 Minnesota 这样的州不同？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I think every state has a little nuance, right? You said Minnesota, I went to their high PIP coverage. So I have like all my thoughts of every state. I think the fact is that it will be more -- there will be more competition because of the tort reform. I think that's good. But again, we are so well ahead of it because it's been our biggest state for a long time and we feel really good about it, and we feel great about serving the consumers of Florida, and we want to grow there. So we're going to continue to grow and having the right rates and the right legislative changes is going to make that, I think, better for everybody, but most importantly, consumers.
是的。我认为每个州都有其细微差异。你提到 Minnesota，我立刻会想到他们较高的 PIP 保障限额——我脑子里对每个州都有一套“印象簿”。事实是，侵权法改革会带来更多竞争，我认为这对整体是好事。但同样重要的是，我们在这方面走在前面，因为 Florida 很长时间以来都是我们的第一大州；我们对此感觉很好，也很乐于服务 Florida 的消费者，并希望在当地继续增长。我们会继续增长；合适的费率与适当的立法变更将让一切对各方都更好，尤其是对消费者更好。
Ryan Tunis
Cantor Fitzgerald & Co., Research Division
Got it. I better shore up my knowledge on Minnesota, sorry about that, Tricia. But follow-up is -- you mentioned in the 10-Q, there's this dynamic of customers replacing existing policies with new progressive policies. I was just curious if that had a meaningful impact on the new issued app number.
明白了。我得补补 Minnesota 的课，抱歉，Tricia。追问一下——你们在 10-Q 中提到，存在客户用新的 Progressive 保单替换原有保单的动态。我想了解这是否对“新签申请量（new issued app）”产生了明显影响？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, I think it does and had a meaningful on the PLE numbers because this is a very unusual dynamic that's been happening. And I think I've heard in other calls, it's happening in some of our competitors. So yes, I don't have the specifics for you, but I think customers are super sensitive right now. We get it. We're doing our best to keep rates stable, lowering rates when it makes sense, and we believe that we can grow in certain demographics. But I think it's meaningful kind of across the board.
是的，我认为有影响，并且对 PLE（保单寿命预期）也有显著影响，因为这是一种相当少见的动态。我在其他公司的电话会上也听到过类似情况。所以，虽然我没有具体数据可以提供，但我认为当下客户对价格非常敏感。我们理解这一点，也在尽最大努力保持费率稳定、在合理情况下下调费率，并且我们相信在某些人群中仍然可以实现增长。总体而言，我认为这种影响具有一定广度。
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
Yes. I think the ultimate metric, Ryan, is PIF growth. So yes, you're right, to the extent we are rewriting more customers, those we do report as new customers. But at the end of the day, the PIF count and the VIF count to previous conversations, I think, is what you should look at in terms of our growth and our market share.
是的。Ryan，我认为最终的衡量指标还是 PIF 增长。你说得对，在我们“重写”（rewrite）更多保单的情况下，这些会计入新客户。但归根结底，正如我们先前讨论的，你应该关注 PIF 和 VIF 的规模与增长，这更能反映我们的增长与市场份额。
Operator
The next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下一位提问来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
I was hoping just to touch a little bit on pricing, and I was a little surprised the stable pricing that you put through in the third quarter, just given how strong the margins are, even if we put in sort of like a normal catastrophe loss level for the auto business. Is this something that you guys are considering? Is there something on the horizon that would prevent you from doing this? It didn't sound like you were concerned really about tariffs, but just trying to get you just a sense for how you're thinking about potentially lowering price to accelerate growth and also improve retention.
我想谈谈定价。考虑到你们的利润率非常强劲，即便把汽车险的灾损设为正常水平，你们在第三季度仍维持了稳定的定价，这让我有些意外。你们是否在考虑下调价格？有没有什么即将发生的因素会阻碍你们这么做？听起来你们对关税并不太担心；我只是想了解一下，你们如何看待通过潜在降价来加速增长并提升留存。
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes, we absolutely been thinking about that. We were more conservative, I think, when the tariffs came out. And so now that, that seems today to be more certain, we are a little bit less concerned. Of course, that could change. I think we decreased rates in about 10 states in this quarter, increased rates in about 6. So we're very surgical on channel, product, state, but we do want to grow, and so we will look to that for both growth and retention in terms of reducing rates.
是的，我们绝对在考虑。关税消息刚出来时，我们的确更为保守。现在看上去不确定性较之前有所收敛，我们的担忧也相对减轻。当然，这可能会改变。本季度我们大约在 10 个州下调了费率，在约 6 个州上调了费率。我们会在渠道、产品、州层面精细决策，但我们的确希望增长，因此会把降价作为同时促进增长与留存的工具来考量。
We just want to make sure because of the competitive environment that if we -- we get something for that, so that you don't want to reduce your margins and not get growth. So we're trying to be, like I said, really surgical in each state of when we think we can get growth, and that unit growth is important. And so we know we have some margin to play with, and that's really what we're talking about now at every individual state and DMA level.
我们只是要确保在当前竞争环境下，“用降价换来实际的东西”，而不是在没有增长的情况下牺牲利润率。因此，如我所说，我们会在逐州维度非常“外科手术式”地判断何时能换来增长，而单位量的增长很重要。我们知道还有一定利润空间可用，这正是我们目前在各州与 DMA 层面讨论的问题。
David Motemaden
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Got it. And then maybe sort of a higher-level question. Just as we think about the impact of collision avoidance systems and ADAS as it penetrates the fleet more and more. I don't think -- I'm sort of looking at ISO data. I think for 10 years up until 2019 industry frequency was pretty flat. And now when I sort of look since 2019, we obviously had COVID in there, but it's a pretty substantial decrease. So I'm wondering if you can think of -- like just maybe just talk about unpacking some of that decline and improvement in frequency that looks like it's still continuing and sort of how we can think about that as impacting the longer-term growth of the business?
明白。再问一个更高层的问题：随着碰撞预防系统和 ADAS 在车队中渗透提升，对行业的影响如何？我在看 ISO 的数据，2019 年之前约十年里行业事故频率大体持平；而自 2019 年起（当然期间经历了 COVID），频率出现了相当明显的下降。能否拆解一下这一下降与改善背后的驱动（看起来仍在持续），以及我们应如何把它纳入对业务长期增长的思考？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
Yes. I can't predict the future but take away that kind of couple years during COVID because things were so strange with driving. Frequency has been going down for the last 50 years. And as vehicles get safer, as laws around DUIs and other things get more stringent and have gotten more stringent, I think that's a really good thing. Now it's been offset and then some by severity. And that's been where when you look at the models, we have -- when we do our models for our runway, we look at that and severity has increased well more than frequency.
是的。我无法预测未来，但如果把驾驶行为异常的 COVID 几年剔除，事故频率在过去 50 年总体是下降的。随着车辆更安全、DUI 等相关法律更严格并持续趋严，这是非常好的事情。不过，这种下降被严重度的上升所抵消，甚至超过。你看我们的 runway 模型时会发现，我们在建模中一直考虑到这一点：严重度的增幅明显高于频率的降幅。
And so we'll continue to see what happens in terms of parts, the ability to repair vehicles, the ability to have talent that can actually repair those vehicles as they get more complex, and those are things that you can't predict, but we look at those all the time, and we're deeply looking at those right now as we think about our next 3-year strategy.
因此，我们会持续观察零部件供给、车辆可修复性、以及随着车辆更复杂，相关维修人才的可获得性。这些因素难以预测，但我们一直在跟踪，现在在制定未来 3 年战略时也在深入研究。
John Sauerland
VP & CFO
Cars on the road -- I'm sorry, I was just going to add the number of cars on the road has also increased. The average age of those vehicles has increased. So all those factors in addition to the pure premiums or the frequency and severity affect the size of the marketplace. And the marketplace actually has grown faster than we had anticipated when we first started assessing the long-term runway or market size of the Personal Auto marketplace.
在道路上的车辆——抱歉，我补充一点：在道路上的车辆数量也在增加，车辆平均车龄也在上升。因此，除了纯保费、频率与严重度之外，这些因素也会影响市场规模。事实上，当我们最初评估 Personal Auto 市场的长期“跑道”和市场容量时，实际市场的增长速度比我们预期的更快。
David Motemaden
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Got it. That's interesting. Yes, it definitely feels like -- I mean, I think it was like '07 until 2019 industry frequency was flat. So like if we look at it over a 50-year time frame to this point, it's definitely still down, but like there is definitely an air pocket in there where the industry was benefiting from like flattish frequency. And so yes, just something I'm sort of thinking about, but I appreciate the -- I appreciate the answers there.
明白了，这很有意思。确实可以感觉到——我记得大概 2007 年到 2019 年行业频率相对持平。因此，从 50 年的时间维度看，频率总体仍在下降，但期间确实存在一个“平台期”，行业从相对稳定的频率中受益。只是我在思考这个问题，感谢你们的解答。
Operator
The next question is from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.
下一位提问来自 UBS 的 Brian Meredith。
Brian Meredith
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Tricia, the first one and this I know it seems like it comes up every quarter, but on the PLE drop, can you talk maybe a little bit, is it mix driven this quarter that's kind of dropping everything? Or is it kind of across all the cohorts that you're seeing the drops in PLE?
Tricia，第一个问题——我知道这几乎每个季度都会被问到——关于 PLE 下降，能否多谈一点：本季度的下降主要是由客户结构变化所驱动，还是你们在所有客群上都看到 PLE 的下降？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
I think it's probably more pronounced than Sams. I'm not quite sure, but I think it's mainly across the board. I think everyone's shopping. And when we look at our mix of business just in terms of even growth, as you look through our Q and think about just our prospects and conversion, you can see that -- even though that's relating to consumers coming in, we think that has an impact. Do you have anything to add, Pat?
我认为在 Sams 客群上可能更明显。我不敢完全确定，但总体看是全局性的。我觉得现在大家都在比价。从我们的业务结构看，哪怕只看增量，你翻看我们的 10-Q，结合潜在客户与转化率，也能看到——尽管这些与新进客户相关——我们认为这对 PLE 产生了影响。Pat，你要补充吗？
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines
Yes, it's pretty much across the board, but driven by different aspects in that Sams are obviously more price-sensitive and household costs are rising. On the Robinsons side, we certainly have taken some action to redistribute our book and to limit access to our property product at some agencies which has an effect on where they place that business and whether it retains with us. So we are seeing it more broadly. But yes, more broadly.
是的，基本是全局性的，但驱动因素不同：Sams 显然对价格更敏感，同时家庭成本在上升。Robinsons 这边，我们确实采取了一些措施来重新分布保册，并在部分代理渠道限制房主险产品的可得性，这会影响业务的落地去向以及是否继续留在我们这里。所以我们看到的是更广泛的影响——是的，更广泛。
Brian Meredith
UBS Investment Bank, Research Division
Great. That's helpful. And just second question, if I look at where your premium was in the third quarter and, granted, I understand it's calendar year, so it's not exact here. And versus average written premium per policy, there's a pretty meaningful kind of spread difference which would imply some pretty meaningful margin compression here going forward, granted from very attractive margins you're seeing right now. As you think about kind of going forward and what you're looking at, is that something you're anticipating? Is that your margins will compress here on Personal Auto insurance going forward here closer to target level?
好的，这很有帮助。第二个问题：如果我看你们第三季度的保费（我明白这是按公历年度口径，不是完全精确）与“每保单平均已签保费”的对比，二者之间存在相当明显的“利差”，这意味着未来你们的利润率可能会有较明显的回落——当然，是从当前非常吸引人的水平回落。展望未来，你们是否预期这一点？也就是说，你们的个人汽车险利润率是否会回落到更接近目标水平？
Susan Griffith
President, CEO & Director
I mean I think it depends on if we can get the growth for that. So our operating goal is to grow as fast as we can at a 96 or lower. We're obviously well in advance of that. We've had some conservativeness baked in because of tariffs and some other things. But yes, we could see it compress if we believe we can get that growth, and we're always kind of managing that trade-off. But I believe that's an accurate statement going forward because our ultimate measure of growth is units. So PIFs and VIFs, as we talked about today, and we'll do what we can to continue that growth because, again, if we have a plan around our property, the more auto we can get in there, the more bundles we can get in sort of nice circle. So we're going to do what we can to grow as long as it serves us in terms of our target profit margins and our operating goal that has been in place for decades.
我认为这取决于我们是否能用利润换来增长。我们的经营目标是在 96 或更低的综合成本率下尽可能快地增长；显然我们目前远优于这一水平。鉴于关税及其他因素，我们的假设里也包含了一定的保守性。但如果我们相信能换来增长，利润率可能会收窄，我们一直在管理这个权衡。我认为这是对未来的准确描述，因为我们最终衡量增长看的是“量”——也就是今天谈到的 PIF 与 VIF。我们会尽力延续这种“量”的增长；另外，若按我们的财产险规划推进，车险规模越大、我们能实现的捆绑销售就越多，形成良性循环。只要能在目标利润率与沿用数十年的经营目标框架下为我们带来好处，我们就会尽力推动增长。
Douglas Constantine
Director of Investor Relations
We've exhausted our scheduled time. And so that concludes our event. Those left in the queue can direct their questions directly to me. Alyssa, I will hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.
我们的预定时间已到，今天的活动到此结束。尚未连线的提问者可将问题直接转给我。Alyssa，我把电话交还给你做结束致辞。
Operator
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's third quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive Corporation 第三季度投资者活动到此结束。活动重播的相关信息将在未来一年内发布于 Progressive 网站的投资者关系板块。您现在可以挂线。