I.C.S.110.工作方法.不知道怎么做

忽略不知道怎么做的事情。

1、《2019-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

64. Expand you circle of competence if you can, but don’t force it

如果可以的话，扩大你的能力圈，但不要强迫自己。

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station 8. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：好的。第 8 站。（笑声）

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, Warren. Hi, Charlie. My name is Jacob (PH). I’m a shareholder from China and also a proud graduate of Columbia Business School. Thanks for having us here. (Cheers)

观众成员：嗨，沃伦。嗨，查理。我叫雅各布（音）。我是来自中国的股东，也是哥伦比亚商学院的自豪毕业生。感谢你们邀请我们来这里。（欢呼）

My question is, our world is changing at a faster pace today versus 40 years ago and even more so going forward. And in this context, for each of us individually, should we expand our circle of competence continuously over time? Or should we stick with the existing circle but risk having a shrinking investment universe? Thank you.

我的问题是，今天我们的世界变化的速度比 40 年前快得多，未来的变化甚至更大。在这种情况下，对于我们每个人来说，是否应该随着时间的推移不断扩大我们的能力圈？还是应该坚持现有的能力圈，但冒着投资范围缩小的风险？谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, obviously you should, under any conditions, you should expand your circle of competence —

沃伦·巴菲特：显然，在任何情况下，你都应该扩大你的能力范围——

CHARLIE MUNGER: If you can.

查理·芒格：如果你能的话。

WARREN BUFFETT: If you can. Yeah. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：如果可以的话。是的。（笑声）

And I’ve expanded mine a little bit over time. But —

我随着时间的推移稍微扩展了一下我的。可是——

CHARLIE MUNGER: If you can’t — I’d be pretty cautious.

查理·芒格：如果你不能——我会非常谨慎。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. You can’t force it. You know. If you told me that I had to, you know, become an expert on physics or, you know —

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。你不能强迫它。你知道。如果你告诉我我必须，嗯，成为物理学的专家，或者，嗯——

CHARLIE MUNGER: Dance maybe the lead in a ballet, Warren. That would be a sight. (Laughter)

查理·芒格：沃伦，也许跳个芭蕾舞的主角，那会是个景象。（笑声）

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well. That’s one I hadn’t really —

沃伦·巴菲特：是的，嗯。这是我还没有真正——

CHARLIE MUNGER: (Inaudible) now.

查理·芒格：（听不清）现在。

WARREN BUFFETT: That’s one you may be thinking about, but I— (laughter) — it hadn’t even occurred to me. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：你可能在考虑这个，但我——（笑）——我甚至没有想到过。（笑）

But, you know, it’s ridiculous. That doesn’t mean you can’t expand it at all. I mean, I did learn about some things as I’ve gone along in a few businesses.

但是，你知道，这太荒谬了。这并不意味着你完全不能扩展它。我的意思是，在我参与的一些业务中，我确实学到了一些东西。

In some cases, I’ve learned that I’m incompetent, which is actually a plus, then you’ve discarded that one.

在某些情况下，我意识到自己无能，这实际上是一个优点，那么你就抛弃了那个。

But it doesn’t really — the world is going to change. And it’s going to keep changing. It’s changing every day. And that makes it interesting. You know.

但实际上并不是这样——世界将会改变。而且它会不断变化。它每天都在变化。这使得它变得有趣。你知道的。

And as it changes, certainly within what you think is your present existing circle, you have to — you should be the master of figuring that one out or it really isn’t your circle of competence.

随着变化，当然在你认为的现有圈子内，你必须——你应该成为弄清楚这一点的高手，否则这真的就不是你的能力范围。

And if you get a chance to expand it somewhat as you go along —

如果你有机会在进行过程中稍微扩展一下——

I’ve learned some about the energy business from Walter (Scott) and Greg (Abel) as we’ve worked together, but I’m not close to their level of competence on it. But I do know more than I used to know. And so, you get a chance to expand it a bit.

我从沃尔特（斯科特）和格雷格（阿贝尔）那里学到了一些关于能源业务的知识，尽管我与他们的能力水平相差甚远。但我确实比以前知道得更多。因此，你有机会稍微扩展一下。

Usually, I would think normally your core competence is probably something that sort of fits the way the mind has worked.

通常，我认为你的核心竞争力可能是某种适合思维运作方式的东西。

Some people have what I call a “money mind.” And they will work well in certain types of money situations.

有些人拥有我所称之为“金钱思维”。他们在某些类型的金钱情况下表现良好。

It isn’t so much a question of IQ. The mind is a very strange thing. And people have specialties, whether in chess or bridge. I see it in different people that can do impossible — what seem to me — impossible things. And they’re really kind of, as Charlie would say, stupid in other areas — (laughs) — you know.

这并不是智商的问题。思维是一件非常奇怪的事情。人们都有自己的专长，无论是在国际象棋还是桥牌上。我看到不同的人能够做一些看似不可能的事情。而他们在其他领域真的有点，正如查理所说，愚蠢——（笑）——你知道的。

So just keep working on it. But don’t think you have to increase it and therefore start bending the rules. Anything further, Charlie?

所以继续努力。但不要认为你必须增加它，因此开始违反规则。还有其他问题吗，查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: No. 查理·芒格：不。

2、《2018-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

None of that counts at all, really, in a lifetime of investing. What counts is having a philosophy that you’ve — that you stick with, that you understand why you’re in it, and then you forget about doing things that you don’t know how to do.

在投资的漫长一生中，这些都不算什么。重要的是要有一种哲学——一种你坚持的哲学，明白你为什么要这样做，然后忘记那些你不知道如何去做的事情。

55. Investing “doesn’t require advanced learning”

投资“并不需要高级学习”

WARREN BUFFETT: Station 6.

沃伦·巴菲特：第六站。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, I’m Brady Ritchie (PH) from St. Louis, Missouri. Shareholder since 1996.

观众成员：嗨，我是来自密苏里州圣路易斯的布雷迪·里奇（音）。自 1996 年以来的股东。

WARREN BUFFETT: Terrific.

沃伦·巴菲特：太棒了。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Warren, you and Charlie have been critical of business schools in the past and what they teach. With respect to value investing, in “Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville,” you featured the returns of many great investors with different backgrounds’ work in education, with the lesson being, “Following the philosophy is the key.”

观众成员：沃伦，你和查理过去对商学院及其教授的内容提出了批评。关于价值投资，在《格雷厄姆与多德斯维尔的超级投资者》中，你展示了许多成功投资者的回报，他们的背景和教育经历各不相同，教训是“遵循哲学是关键”。

To be successful today, does it still just fall back to chapter eight of “The Intelligent Investor?” And what do you think of programs and designations such as CFA, CFP, et cetera, which purport high standards yet root it heavily into academia? And I’d like to challenge you to a round of bridge tomorrow. (Laughter)

要在今天取得成功，是否仍然只依赖《聪明的投资者》第八章？你对像 CFA、CFP 等声称高标准但又深深扎根于学术界的项目和资格认证有什么看法？我想挑战你明天打一局桥牌。（笑声）

WARREN BUFFETT: And what was the last part?

沃伦·巴菲特：最后一部分是什么？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, he was talk — what do we think about —

查理·芒格：好吧，他在谈论——我们对此怎么看——

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, business schools and all that.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的，商学院和那些。

CHARLIE MUNGER: — business schools and all that.

查理·芒格：—— 商学院和那些。

WARREN BUFFETT: I didn’t catch the last —

沃伦·巴菲特：我没听到最后——

CHARLIE MUNGER: They’re better —

查理·芒格：他们更好——

WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, he’s challenged me to a round of bridge. OK. The — (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：哦，他向我挑战了一局桥牌。好的。（笑声）

I went to three business schools, and at each I found a teacher or two. I went to one specifically to get a given teacher. But at each one of them I found a teacher or two that I really got a lot out of. The — so we’re not anti-business school here at all.

我上过三所商学院，在每所学校我都找到了一个或两个老师。我特意去了一所学校就是为了找某位老师。但在每所学校我都找到了一个或两个让我受益匪浅的老师。所以，我们并不是反对商学院。

We do think that the priesthood, say, 30 years ago, for example, in terms of — or 40 years ago — in terms of efficient market theory and everything. They strayed pretty far, in our view, from the reality of investing. And I would rather have a person — if I could hire somebody among the top five graduates of number one, two or three of the business schools, and my choice was somebody that had — was bright — but had chapter eight of “The Intelligent Investor” absolutely — it just was natural to them — they had it in their bones, basically — I’d take the person from chapter eight.

我们确实认为，30 年前，比如说，或者 40 年前，关于有效市场理论等方面的神职人员，偏离了我们认为的投资现实。我宁愿雇佣一个人——如果我可以在排名第一、第二或第三的商学院中选择五名优秀毕业生中的一位，而我的选择是一个聪明的人——但他对《聪明的投资者》第八章的理解非常自然——这对他们来说就像是与生俱来的——我会选择那个对第八章了如指掌的人。

This is not — what we do is not a complicated business. It’s got to be a disciplined business, but it is — it does not require a super IQ or anything of the sort. And there are a few fundamentals that are incredibly important, and you do have to understand accounting. And it helps to get out and talk to consumers and start thinking like a consumer in many ways in certain — and all of that.

这不是——我们所做的并不是一项复杂的业务。它必须是一个有纪律的业务，但它——并不需要超级智商或类似的东西。有一些基本原则是非常重要的，你确实需要理解会计。而且，走出去与消费者交谈，并在许多方面开始像消费者一样思考，这也是有帮助的——所有这些。

But it just doesn’t require advanced learning. And — I — I certainly — you know, I didn’t want to go to college, so I don’t know whether I would have done better or worse if I’d just quit after high school, you know, and read the books I read and all of that.

但这并不需要高级学习。而且——我——我当然——你知道，我不想上大学，所以我不知道如果我在高中毕业后就退学，是否会做得更好或更差，你知道的，读我读的书，等等。

I think that if you run into a few great teachers, and they really change the way you see the world to some degree, you know, you’re lucky. And you can find them in — you can find them in academia and you can find them in ordinary life.

我认为，如果你遇到几个伟大的老师，他们在某种程度上真的改变了你看待世界的方式，你知道，你是幸运的。你可以在学术界找到他们，也可以在普通生活中找到他们。

And I’ve been extraordinarily lucky in having great teachers, including Charlie. I mean, Charlie’s been a wonderful teacher. And, you know —

我非常幸运，有优秀的老师，包括查理。我是说，查理是一位很棒的老师。而且，你知道——

Anyplace you can find somebody that gives you insights into things you didn’t understand before, maybe makes you a better person than you would have been before, you know, you get — that’s very lucky, and you want to make the most of it. If you can find it in academia, make the most of it. And if you can find it in the rest of your life, make the most of it.

任何地方你都可以找到能够让你了解以前不明白的事情的人，也许会让你成为一个比以前更好的人，你知道，这很幸运，你想要充分利用它。如果你能在学术界找到它，就好好利用。如果你能在生活的其他方面找到它，就好好利用。

Charlie? 查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, when you found Ben Graham he was unconventional, and he was very smart. And of course, that was very attractive to you. And then when you found out it worked and you could make a lot of money while you’re sitting on your ass — (laughter) — of course you were an instant convert. And so —

查理·芒格：好吧，当你发现本·格雷厄姆时，他是个不拘一格的人，而且非常聪明。当然，这对你来说非常有吸引力。然后当你发现这行得通，并且你可以在悠闲中赚很多钱时——（笑声）——当然你立刻就信服了。所以——

WARREN BUFFETT: It still appeals to me, actually. I mean — (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：实际上，这仍然吸引我。我的意思是——（笑声）

CHARLIE MUNGER: But the world changed. Before he died, Bill Graham — I mean, Ben Graham — recognized that the exact way he sought undervalued companies wouldn’t necessarily work for all times under all conditions. And that’s certainly the way it worked for us.

查理·芒格：但世界变了。在他去世之前，比尔·格雷厄姆——我的意思是本·格雷厄姆——意识到他寻找被低估公司的确切方式并不一定适用于所有时间和所有条件。这对我们来说肯定是这样。

We gradually morphed into trying to buy the better companies when they were underpriced, instead of the lousy companies when they were underpriced. And of course, that worked pretty well for us.

我们逐渐转变为在优秀公司被低估时购买它们，而不是在劣质公司被低估时购买它们。当然，这对我们来说效果很好。

And Ben Graham, he outlived the game that he played personally most of the time. He lived to see most of it fade away. I mean, just to find some company that’s selling for one third of its working capital, and figure out it could easily be liquidated and distribute $3 for every dollar of market price. Lots of luck if you can find those in the present market. And if you can find them, they’re so small that Berkshire wouldn’t find them of any use anyway.

本·格雷厄姆活过了他大部分时间所参与的游戏。他活着目睹了大部分的消逝。我的意思是，找到一些以其营运资本三分之一的价格出售的公司，并发现它们可以轻易清算并分配每美元市场价格 3 美元的现金。如果你能在当前市场中找到这些，那真是运气好。而且如果你能找到它们，它们又小得伯克希尔根本不会觉得有任何用处。

So we’ve had to learn a different game. And that’s a lesson for all the young people in the room. If you’re going to live a long time, you have to keep learning.

所以我们不得不学习一种不同的游戏。这是给在场所有年轻人的教训。如果你想活得长久，就必须不断学习。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. 沃伦·巴菲特：是的。

CHARLIE MUNGER: What you formerly knew is never enough. So if you don’t learn to constantly revise your earlier conclusions and get better (inaudible), you are — I always use the same metaphor. You’re like a one-legged man in an ass-kicking contest. (Laughter)

查理·芒格：你以前知道的永远不够。所以如果你不学会不断修正你早期的结论并变得更好（听不清），你就——我总是用同样的比喻。你就像一个在踢屁股比赛中的独腿人。（笑声）

WARREN BUFFETT: If anybody has suggestions for another metaphor, send them to me. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：如果有人有其他隐喻的建议，请发给我。（笑声）

Graham, incidentally, one point, important point. Graham was not scalable. I mean, you could not do with really big money. And when I worked for Graham-Newman Corp, here he was, the dean of all analysts. And you know, he was an intellect above all others around that time.

格雷厄姆，顺便提一下，有一点，重要的一点。格雷厄姆是不可扩展的。我的意思是，你无法用真正的大资金来操作。当我为格雷厄姆-纽曼公司工作时，他是所有分析师中的权威。你知道，他在那个时候的智力超越了其他所有人。

But our — the investment fund was $6 million, and the partnership that worked in tandem with the investment company also had about $6 million in it. So we had 12 million bucks we were working with. Now, you can make adjustments for inflation and everything. But it was just a tiny amount. It wasn’t really scalable.

但是我们的投资基金是 600 万美元，与投资公司合作的合伙企业也有大约 600 万美元。所以我们总共有 1200 万美元可以使用。现在，你可以考虑通货膨胀和其他因素。但这只是一个微不足道的数额。它实际上并不可扩展。

And the truth is that Graham didn’t care, because he really wasn’t interested in making a lot of money for himself. So he had no reason to want to find something that could go on and on, become larger and larger.

事实上，格雷厄姆并不在乎，因为他真的对为自己赚很多钱没有兴趣。因此，他没有理由想要找到一些可以不断扩展、变得越来越大的东西。

And so the utility of chapter eight, in terms of looking at stocks as a business, is of enormous value. The utility of chapter 20 about a margin of safety is of enormous value. But that’s not complicated stuff.

因此，第八章在将股票视为一种商业的角度上，其实用性是巨大的。第二十章关于安全边际的实用性也非常重要。但这些并不复杂。

CHARLIE MUNGER: I finally figured out why the teachers of corporate finance often teach a lot of stuff that’s wrong. When I had some eye troubles very early in life, I consulted a very famous eye doctor. And I realized that his place of business was doing a totally obsolete cataract operation. They were still cutting with a knife after better procedures had been invented.

查理·芒格：我终于明白了为什么企业金融的老师们常常教很多错误的东西。当我在很小的时候有一些眼睛问题时，我咨询了一位非常著名的眼科医生。我意识到他的诊所正在进行一种完全过时的白内障手术。在更好的手术方法发明之后，他们仍然在用刀切割。

I said, “Why are you in a great medical school performing absolute obsolete operations?” And he said, “Charlie, it’s such a wonderful operation to teach.” (Laughter)

我说：“你为什么在一所优秀的医学院进行绝对过时的手术？”他回答：“查理，这是一项非常好的教学手术。”（笑声）

Well, that’s what happens in corporate finance. They get these formulas, and it’s a fine teaching experience. (Laughter)

好吧，这就是企业金融中发生的事情。他们得到这些公式，这是一段很好的教学经历。（笑声）

You give them a formula, you present the problem, they use the formula. You get a real feeling of worthwhile activity. (Laughter)

你给他们一个公式，提出问题，他们就用这个公式。你会感受到一种有价值的活动的真实感。（笑声）

There’s only one there. It’s all balderdash.

那里只有一个。全都是胡说八道。

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, whenever you hear a theory described as elegant, watch out, you know. (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：是的，每当你听到一个理论被描述为优雅时，要小心，你知道的。（笑声）

CHARLIE MUNGER: Right. 查理·芒格：对。

I.C.S.110.工作方法.不知道怎么做

I.C.S.110.工作方法.不知道怎么做

1、《2019-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

2、《2018-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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