I.H.15.Warren Buffett.Insurance and Gambling

1、《2006-05-06 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

53. Key distinction between insurance and gambling

保险与赌博的关键区别

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 6.

沃伦·巴菲特：第六位。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. It’s Peter Webb here from London, UK.

观众成员：你好。我是来自英国伦敦的彼得·韦布。

Your views on gambling are well-known, and I think most people would agree that gambling is for the fiscally challenged.

你对赌博的看法是众所周知的，我认为大多数人会同意赌博是给经济状况不佳的人准备的。

But when I look at the insurance industry, what I see is an industry — I can’t even say it — I see an industry that’s based upon probabilities, and people not knowing those true probabilities, and money being made for the house in the same way as you see in a gambling market.

但当我看到保险行业时，我看到的是一个——我甚至不想说——我看到的是一个基于概率的行业，而人们并不知道那些真实的概率，并且像在赌博市场上一样，资金是为赌场所赚取的。

So the question I have for you is, how do you reconcile your views with gambling versus the insurance industry, and is the insurance industry for the fiscally challenged?

所以我想问的是，您如何调和您对赌博和保险行业的看法？保险行业是否也是针对经济状况不佳的人？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, gambling, I think — I think the distinction that usually is made is that gambling involves creating risks that don’t need to be created.

沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，赌博，我认为——我认为通常的区别在于，赌博涉及创造不必要的风险。

I mean, if the — you want to go out and gamble on where a little ball is going to fall on a wheel that’s revolving, that is not something that — that is a created risk.

我的意思是，如果你拥有一处位于沿海地区的房屋或商业地产，这个风险是客观存在的。

Whereas, if you’ve got a home or a business, you know, on a coastal area, the risk is there.

然而，如果你在沿海地区有一个家或一家公司，你知道，风险是存在的。

It wasn’t created intentionally — I mean, you say you built in that place, but — and then the question is who bears it. So there’s a transfer of — in the case of cat coverage — large existing risks as opposed to the creation of a risk that is not required.

它不是有意创造的——我的意思是，你说你在那个地方建造了，但——问题是谁承担它。因此，在灾难险的情况下，有一个大型现有风险的转移，而不是创造一个不必要的风险。

I mean, you can watch a football game without betting on it. But you can’t live in a house, you know, on a Florida coast without having a risk that your entire investment disappears.

我的意思是，你可以在不下注的情况下观看一场足球比赛。但是你不能住在佛罗里达海岸的一所房子里，而不冒着整个投资消失的风险。

So that’s the distinction, basically. I hope you’re right that the house wins in both cases. (Laughter)

所以这就是区别，基本上。我希望你是对的，无论哪种情况，赌场都能赢。（笑声）

Charlie? 查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think I can add to that either. The whole concept of house advantage is a very interesting one in modern commerce.

查理·芒格：嗯，我想我也没什么可以补充的。赌场优势的整个概念在现代商业中是一个非常有趣的课题。

A lot of the investment management operations, which were not ordinarily spoken of in the past in croupier terms — but the terms of a lot of private equity investment now —

许多投资管理操作，过去通常不会用庄家的术语来描述——但现在许多私募股权投资的术语——

I think the proprietors of the partnerships are taking a house edge that looks a lot like the rake of the croupier in Monte Carlo, except it’s bigger. (Laughter)

我认为合伙企业的所有者正在获得一种看起来很像摩纳哥赌场的“抽水”优势，只不过更大。(笑声)

本质都是赌场，保险的适用场景更加自然，也更加普遍。

WARREN BUFFETT: Is there anyone we’ve forgotten to insult? (Laughter)

沃伦·巴菲特：我们有没有忘记侮辱谁？（笑声）

Want to make sure we don’t miss anyone here. (Laughs)

想确保我们不会漏掉任何人。（笑）

2、《2005-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

WARREN BUFFETT: But, of course, insurance is a way to reduce volatility, and a perfectly proper way. I mean, if you pay $1,000 a year on your auto premiums for the next 30 years, it isn’t —

沃伦·巴菲特：但是，当然，保险是一种减少波动性的方法，而且是一种完全合适的方法。我的意思是，如果你在接下来的 30 年里每年支付 1000 美元的汽车保险费，这并不是——

You are going to have a more regular income stream than if you wait and have one $25,000 accident one year and don’t pay the premiums in the other years.

如果你等待并在一年内发生一次 $25,000 的事故，而在其他年份不支付保费，那么你的收入流将比这更稳定。

So, I mean, people have bought insurance to reduce the volatility in their own personal results and their own business results. So, reducing volatility, per se, is not bad at all. It’s the reason —

所以，我的意思是，人们购买保险是为了减少个人和企业业绩的波动性。因此，减少波动性本身并没有什么不好。这就是原因——

极其愚蠢的账，是比赌场更好的生意。

CHARLIE MUNGER: No. 查理·芒格：不。

WARREN BUFFETT: — there are $400 billion worth of insurance premiums paid in this country every year. But that doesn’t — you know, you can also get into abuses of that. And that’s what they’re — the people are looking to find and see what the real situation is.

沃伦·巴菲特：——每年在这个国家支付的保险费总额为 4000 亿美元。但是，这并不意味着——你知道的，这其中也可能存在滥用的情况。这就是人们正在寻找并想要了解真实情况的原因。

I.H.15.Warren Buffett.Insurance and Gambling

I.H.15.Warren Buffett.Insurance and Gambling

1、《2006-05-06 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

2、《2005-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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