有且只有两种状态:要么忙着求生,要么忙着求死。
What about Epson and some of the Japanese computer makers?
关于爱普生和一些日本电脑制造商呢?
I’ve said it before: The Japanese have hit the shores like dead fish. They’re just like dead fish washing up on the shores. The Epson has been a failure in this market place.
我之前说过:日本人就像死鱼一样冲上岸。他们就像冲上岸的死鱼。爱普生在这个市场上是个失败。
Like computers, the automobile industry was an American industry that we almost lost to the Japanese. There is a lot of talk about American semiconductor companies’ losing ground to Japanese. How will you keep the edge?
像计算机一样,汽车工业曾是一个美国行业,我们差点将其拱手让给日本人。关于美国半导体公司失去市场份额给日本的讨论很多。你将如何保持竞争优势?
Japan’s very interesting. Some people think it copies things. I don’t think that anymore. I think what they do is reinvent things. They will get something that’s already been invented and study it until they thoroughly understand it. In some cases, they understand it better than the original inventor. Out of that understanding, they will reinvent it in a more refined second-generation version. That strategy works only when what they’re working with isn’t changing very much—the stereo industry and the automobile industry are two examples. When the target is moving quickly, they find it very difficult, because that reinvention cycle takes a few years. As long as the definition of what a personal computer is keeps changing at the rate that it is, they will have a very hard time. Once the rate of change slows down, the Japanese will bring all of their strengths to bear on this market, because they absolutely want to dominate the computer business; there’s no question about that. They see that as a national priority. We think that in four to five years, the Japanese will finally figure out how to build a decent computer. And if we’re going to keep this industry one in which America leads, we have four years to become world-class manufacturers. Our manufacturing technology has to equal or surpass that of the Japanese.
日本非常有趣。有些人认为它抄袭东西。我不再这样认为。我认为他们所做的是重新发明东西。他们会拿到已经被发明的东西,研究它直到彻底理解。在某些情况下,他们对它的理解甚至超过了原始发明者。在这种理解的基础上,他们会以更精炼的第二代版本重新发明它。这个策略只有在他们所处理的事物变化不大时才有效——立体声行业和汽车行业就是两个例子。当目标快速移动时,他们会发现非常困难,因为重新发明的周期需要几年时间。只要个人计算机的定义以目前的速度不断变化,他们就会面临很大的困难。一旦变化的速度减缓,日本人将会把他们所有的优势投入到这个市场,因为他们绝对想要主导计算机业务;这一点毫无疑问。他们将其视为国家优先事项。我们认为在四到五年内,日本人最终会弄明白如何制造出一台体面的计算机。 如果我们要保持这个行业让美国领先,我们有四年的时间成为世界级制造商。我们的制造技术必须等于或超过日本的水平。
10. “Time is the enemy of the poor business”
“时间是平庸企业的敌人”
WARREN BUFFETT: Let’s try zone 3.
沃伦·巴菲特:让我们试试第三区域。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: My name is Warren Hayes (PH). I’m from Chicago, Illinois.
听众:我叫沃伦·海斯(音译),来自伊利诺伊州芝加哥。
I understand from various publications, like Outstanding Investor Digest, that many of the best value investors are buying high-quality, multi-national Japanese companies that are trading below net-net working capital value.
据我从《杰出投资者文摘》等刊物了解到,许多最优秀的价值投资者正在购买一些优质的、日本的跨国公司,这些公司以低于净营运资本的价格交易。
Do you agree that these values exist in Japan? And would you consider a purchase of some of them?
您是否认为日本存在这样的价值?您会考虑购买其中一些公司吗?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, Henry Emerson, who publishes the Outstanding Investor’s Digest is here, so I will give a tout on it.
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,出版《杰出投资者文摘》的亨利·埃默森今天也在这里,所以我先夸奖一下这本刊物。
I read the Outstanding Investor’s Digest, OID, and it’s a very good publication. And I have read some of the commentary about Japanese securities.
我读过《杰出投资者文摘》(OID),这是一份非常好的刊物。我也看过一些关于日本证券的评论。
We’ve looked at securities in all major markets, and we certainly looked at them in Japan, particularly in recent years when the Nikkei has so underperformed the S&P here.
我们研究过所有主要市场的证券,当然也看过日本的,尤其是最近几年,日经指数表现远逊于美国的标普指数。
We’re quite a bit less enthused about those stocks as being any kind of obvious bargains than the people that you read about in OID.
对于那些股票,我们的兴趣没有《杰出投资者文摘》里的那些人描述的那么高,因为我们并不觉得它们显然是便宜货。
The returns on equity in most areas of Japanese business, returns on equity are very low. And it’s extremely difficult to get rich by owning — by being the owner of a business that earns a low return on equity.
日本大多数行业的股本回报率都很低。而通过持有一个股本回报率低的公司变富是非常困难的。
You know, we always look at what a business does in terms of what it earns on capital.
你知道,我们总是以企业的资本回报来衡量它的表现。
We want to be in good businesses. Where you really want to be is in businesses that are going to be good businesses and better businesses ten years from now. And we want to buy them at a reasonable price.
我们希望投资于优秀的企业。我们真正想要的是那些在未来十年仍然是优秀企业,并且会变得更好的企业。我们希望以合理的价格买入它们。
But many years ago we gave up what I’ve labeled the “cigar butt” approach to investing, which is where you try and find a really kind of pathetic company, but it sells so cheap that you think there’s one good free puff left in it.
但是多年前,我们放弃了我所说的“烟蒂式”投资法。这种方法是寻找一个看起来很差劲的公司,但由于它的价格极低,你觉得还可以从中获得一口“免费烟”。
And — (laughter) — we used to pick up a lot of soggy cigar butts, you know. I mean, I had a portfolio full of them.
我们过去确实捡了很多湿漉漉的烟蒂。我的投资组合里曾经全是这样的公司。(笑声)
And there were free puffs in them. I mean, I made money out of that. But A, it doesn’t work with big money anyway, and B, we don’t find many cigar butts around that we would be attracted to.
这些烟蒂确实还能抽一口,我的确从中赚过钱。但首先,这种方法不适合大资金运作;其次,我们现在几乎找不到让我们感兴趣的“烟蒂”。
But those are the companies that had low returns on equity. And if you have a business that’s earning 5 or 6 percent on equity and you hold it for a long time, you are not going to do well in investing. Even if you buy it cheap to start with.
那些公司都是股本回报率很低的。如果一个企业的股本回报率只有5%或6%,并且你长期持有它,在投资上你不会有好结果。即使你一开始以便宜的价格买入。
Time is the enemy of the poor business, and it’s the friend of the great business. I mean if you have a business that’s earning 20 or 25 percent on equity, and it does that for a long time, time is your friend.
时间是平庸企业的敌人,却是优秀企业的朋友。换句话说,如果你有一家企业的股本回报率是20%或25%,并且长期保持这个水平,时间就是你的朋友。
But time is your enemy if you have your money in a low-return business. And you may be lucky enough to pick the exact moment when it gets taken over by someone else.
但如果你的资金投在一个低回报的企业上,时间就是你的敌人。你或许足够幸运,能在它被其他人收购的那一刻抓住机会。
But we like to think when we buy a stock we’re going to own it for a very long time, and therefore we have to stay away from businesses that have low returns on equity.
但我们喜欢这样想:当我们买入一只股票时,我们会长期持有。因此,我们必须远离那些股本回报率低的企业。
Charlie?
查理?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, it’s not that much fun to buy a business where you really hope this sucker liquidates before it goes broke. (Laughter)
查理·芒格:是啊,买一个企业,只是希望它在破产前清算掉,这并不是很有趣的事情。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETT: We’ve been in a few of those, too.
沃伦·巴菲特:我们也经历过这样的企业。
CHARLIE MUNGER: Right. (Laughter)
查理·芒格:没错。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, Charlie and I, we — or at least I have, I’ve owned stock in an anthracite company. There are probably people in this room that don’t know what anthracite is. Three railway companies. Windmill manufacturers. What other gems have we had, Charlie?
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,查理和我——至少我是这样——我曾经持有一家无烟煤公司的股票。这房间里可能有人都不知道什么是无烟煤。还有三家铁路公司,风车制造商。我们还有过哪些“宝藏”企业,查理?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Textiles. (Laughter)
查理·芒格:纺织业。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, textiles. Don’t even think. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特:是的,纺织业。别提了。(笑声)
Yeah, Berkshire was a mistake, believe it or not. I mean we went into Berkshire because it was cheap statistically just as a general investment back in the early ’60s, and it was a company that in the previous ten years had earned less than nothing. I mean it had a significant net loss over the previous ten years.
是的,伯克希尔是个错误,相信与否。我们进入伯克希尔是因为在统计上它很便宜,就像早期60年代的一个普通投资。而在之前十年,它实际上是亏损的,也就是说,十年来净亏损相当严重。
It was selling well below working capital, so it was a cigar butt. And it was — I mean we could have done the things we’ve done subsequently from a neutral base rather than a negative base, and actually it would have worked out better, but it’s been a lot of fun.
它的交易价格远低于营运资本,所以它是一个“烟蒂”。我想,我们本可以从一个中立的基础而不是负面的基础开始做我们后来做的事情,这样实际上会更好,但这一路确实很有趣。
避免从负面资产入手。
22. Coca-Cola advertising in Japan
可口可乐在日本的广告
WARREN BUFFETT: The question about Coke’s advertising in Japan. As you know, Coke has a terrific presence in Japan.
沃伦·巴菲特:关于可口可乐在日本的广告问题。正如你所知,可口可乐在日本市场占据着非常强大的地位。
Japan’s an interesting market, because the percentage of soft drinks sold through vending machines is just far, far higher than any place in the world. And the United States is a very distant second. And then, the rest of the world, there’s very little done in the way of vending machines.
日本是一个有趣的市场,因为通过自动售货机销售软饮料的比例远高于世界上任何其他地方。美国排名第二,但与日本的差距很大。而世界其他地方,自动售货机的使用非常有限。
I don’t know the specifics of the advertising in Japan, but of course, Doug Daft who now is the CEO of Coke, comes with a huge background in Asia. I mean, that was his territory for much of his career.
我不了解可口可乐在日本具体的广告情况,但可口可乐现任CEO道格·达夫特在亚洲市场有着丰富的经验。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在负责亚洲市场。
And Doug — we have a new major — very major — advertising campaign coming up. And you probably read that Coke is going to spend 300 million-plus additional on marketing beyond the normal spend, which is huge.
此外,可口可乐即将推出一个非常重大的广告宣传活动。你可能已经看到新闻报道,可口可乐将额外投入超过3亿美元用于市场营销,这远超正常的支出规模,非常巨大。
And I can’t tell you the specific markets in which that will be, but I would be surprised if Japan isn’t a big part of it, because Japan is an enormous market for Coca-Cola.
我无法具体告诉你这些资金将投放在哪些市场,但如果日本不成为其中的重要部分,我会感到非常意外,因为日本是可口可乐的一个巨大市场。
Charlie?
查理?
CHARLIE MUNGER: I have nothing to add.
查理·芒格:我没什么要补充的。
A seemingly routine ruling by India’s top tax officials went off like metal in a microwave.
印度最高税务官员的一项看似常规的裁决像微波炉中的金属一样引发了轰动。
The government laid out a three-tiered system for taxing popcorn depending on if it is packaged or sold loose, carries a brand name or is generic, and is salted or sweet. Caramel popcorn, the government said in December, would be taxed at 18%—nearly akin to a luxury product.
政府制定了一个三层税收体系来对爆米花征税,具体取决于它是包装的还是散装的,是否带有品牌名称或是普通的,以及是咸的还是甜的。政府在 12 月表示,焦糖爆米花的税率为 18%——几乎相当于奢侈品。
The people weren’t pleased. An explanation from India’s finance minister, chair of the tax council, didn’t help.
人们并不满意。来自印度财政部长兼税务委员会主席的解释并没有起到作用。
“I want to explain the whole background of the popcorn taxes to you: Salted popcorn, caramelized popcorn, plain popcorn,” said Nirmala Sitharaman at a news conference in late December. “When it comes to popcorn’s tax treatment, as long as it is salty, whether it is with salt, spiced, tangy, chilli powder, that’s all 5%. But when it has added caramelized sugar, it is no longer salty.”
“我想向你们解释爆米花税的整个背景:咸味爆米花、焦糖爆米花、普通爆米花,”Nirmala Sitharaman 在十二月下旬的新闻发布会上说。“当涉及到爆米花的税收处理时,只要是咸的,无论是加盐、加香料、酸辣、辣椒粉,都是 5%。但当它加入焦糖糖时,就不再是咸的。”
But the 5% will apply only if the popcorn is sold loose. Put it in a sealed plastic packet and slap a label on it and the rate jumps to 12%. An accompanying press note explained further that caramel popcorn had transformed into a confectionery, and merited a correspondingly higher tax rate. The finance minister’s office didn’t respond to a request for comment.
但 5%的税率仅适用于散装销售的爆米花。如果将其放入密封的塑料袋并贴上标签,税率将升至 12%。一份随附的新闻稿进一步解释说,焦糖爆米花已转变为糖果,因此应征收相应更高的税率。财政部长办公室没有回应置评请求。
The popcorn tax structure unleashed a flood of mocking memes, heated television debates and frustrated comments from prominent economists, including former advisers to the government. One called the ruling a “national tragedy.” A cartoon showed Mahatma Gandhi, famous for his march against the British colonial monopoly on the sale of salt, which was heavily taxed, marching against popcorn taxes instead.
爆米花税收结构引发了一波嘲讽的表情包、激烈的电视辩论以及来自知名经济学家(包括前政府顾问)的愤怒评论。一位评论称这一裁决是“国家悲剧”。一幅漫画展示了 Mahatma Gandhi,他因反对英国殖民对盐销售的垄断而闻名,盐当时被重税,而漫画中他则是反对爆米花税。
For critics, the multiplicity of rates on the humble snack was emblematic of why India, despite ongoing efforts to cut red tape, remains a difficult place to do business.
对于批评者来说,这种对普通零食征收多种税率的做法象征着为什么尽管印度正在努力削减繁文缛节,但仍然是一个难以开展业务的地方。
“Popcorn is popcorn,” said Mohandas Pai, chairman of investment firm Aarin Capital Partners and former CFO of Infosys, one of India’s biggest technology services firms. “This shows the attitude that prevails among officials who try to nitpick and to create complications despite the need for simplicity.
“爆米花就是爆米花,”Aarin Capital Partners 投资公司主席、印度最大技术服务公司之一 Infosys 的前首席财务官 Mohandas Pai 说。“这显示了官员们的态度,他们试图吹毛求疵并制造复杂性,尽管需要简单化。”
Pai said that tax officials were making a mockery of a 2017 landmark tax reform—the Goods and Services Tax—aimed at simplifying a system in which sales and other taxes varied by state and knit India into a single market. Its backers had hoped for just two tax rates.
Pai 表示,税务官员正在嘲弄 2017 年的一项具有里程碑意义的税制改革——商品和服务税——该改革旨在简化一个销售税和其他税种因州而异并将印度整合为单一市场的系统。其支持者曾希望只有两个税率。
But the system was introduced with about half a dozen rates, as well as a compensation tax to make up for shortfalls. At regular meetings, the tax council deliberates on how to slot goods and services into these brackets.
但该系统引入了大约六种税率,以及用于弥补短缺的补偿税。在定期会议上,税务委员会会商讨如何将商品和服务归入这些类别。
Moviegoers, for example, face three different rates on popcorn. If they buy salted popcorn at the concession stand—independently of their ticket—they’ll pay 5%, said Nitin Datar, who heads an association for independent cinema operators. But theaters sometimes sell movie tickets and popcorn as a bundle, in which case the tax rate will depend on the type of ticket.
例如,观影者在购买爆米花时面临三种不同的税率。如果他们在售货亭购买咸味爆米花——与电影票无关——他们将支付 5%的税率,独立影院经营者协会负责人 Nitin Datar 说。但有时影院会将电影票和爆米花捆绑销售,这种情况下税率将取决于票的类型。
“So if you are selling popcorn along with tickets, then 18% or 12% will apply,” he said, adding that some cinema operators were experiencing confusion.
“所以如果你在售票的同时销售爆米花,那么将适用 18%或 12%的税率,”他说,并补充说一些影院运营商感到困惑。
Popcorn is far from the only product that India has carved up into tax brackets. In December, India’s Supreme Court laid to rest a 15-year-tax dispute over whether small packages of coconut oil—widely used in Indian cooking—should be taxed at the low tax rate of 5% as a food product or at a double-digit rate as a beauty product, given many Indian women also apply it to their hair.
爆米花远不是印度唯一被划分为税率等级的产品。去年十二月,印度最高法院解决了一场长达 15 年的税务争议,即小包装椰子油——在印度烹饪中广泛使用——是否应作为食品以 5%的低税率征税,还是作为美容产品以两位数的税率征税,因为许多印度女性也将其用于头发。
The dispute arose after tax officials started levying the higher tax rate on small pouches of the oil, reasoning the oil sold in small quantities could be used on hair and not only in frying pans. But the top court ruled that packaging size alone couldn’t be used as a justification for levying a different tax rate.
争议起因于税务官员开始对小包装的油征收更高的税率,理由是小包装的油可以用于头发,而不仅仅是用于煎锅。但最高法院裁定,仅凭包装大小不能作为征收不同税率的理由。
Defenders of the government say the differing rates are an effort to keep the indirect tax progressive, by taxing products likely to be purchased by the poor (like loose popcorn) differently than those likely to be purchased by more affluent individuals. India has a per capita income of around $2,500, but also is among the world’s top creators of millionaires and billionaires.
政府的支持者表示,不同的税率是为了保持间接税的累进性,通过对可能由穷人购买的产品(如散装爆米花)与可能由更富裕的人购买的产品进行不同的征税。印度的人均收入约为 2500 美元,但同时也是世界上百万富翁和亿万富翁的主要创造者之一。
Some popcorn manufacturers said they were relieved at the clarification.
一些爆米花制造商表示,他们对这一澄清感到宽慰。
“There was always confusion in this popcorn matter,” said Sanjay Vasoya, who co-founded his Oceyan Funfoods business in 2016 to make and sell packaged popcorn. He also sells fox nuts—a popular snack with a texture similar to popcorn that is made from the seeds of an aquatic plant. Vasoya said when he was a child popcorn was only available at movies or fairs, and he wanted to make it more widely available.
“在爆米花这件事上总是存在困惑,”Sanjay Vasoya 说,他在 2016 年共同创立了 Oceyan Funfoods 公司,生产和销售包装爆米花。他还销售一种受欢迎的小吃——芡实,质地类似于爆米花,由一种水生植物的种子制成。Vasoya 说,当他还是个孩子的时候,爆米花只在电影院或集市上有,他想让它更广泛地供应。
After the rough patch of the pandemic, the business has been flourishing, he said. He offers 19 varieties of popcorn, including Peri Peri popcorn, sour cream and onion popcorn and strawberry popcorn.
他说,在经历了疫情的艰难时期后,生意一直在蓬勃发展。他提供 19 种不同口味的爆米花,包括 Peri Peri 爆米花、酸奶油洋葱爆米花和草莓爆米花。
However, he had mistakenly thought all his popcorn products fell under the 18% rate. Tax officials in his state had never told him that a lower rate applied to most of his products, which were largely salted.
然而,他误以为他所有的爆米花产品都属于 18%的税率。他所在州的税务官员从未告诉他,大部分产品实际上适用较低的税率,因为这些产品主要是咸味的。
The minister’s announcement has cleared things up, he said.
部长的声明澄清了事情,他说。
“Whatever madam has said is good in my opinion,” said Vasoya, referring to the finance minister.
“无论部长女士说了什么,在我看来都是好的,”瓦索亚说。
The government, for its part, has noted it hasn’t imposed new taxes, and was merely laying out the status quo in response to a request for clarity from an Indian state.
政府方面指出,它并没有征收新税,只是在回应一个印度邦的澄清请求时阐明现状。
Pai, the investor, said he wished the government had used the opportunity to replace the various rates with one rate.
投资者 Pai 表示,他希望政府能利用这个机会用一个税率取代各种税率。
“Putting it like that in the first place itself was wrong,” he said. “Now when you got a chance to clarify, you reiterate that—that’s even worse.”
“最初这样说就是错的,”他说。“现在你有机会澄清,却重申这一点——这就更糟了。”