I.H.69.Warren Buffett.How to read annual reports

1、《1997-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

74. “Advantage of accumulation of useful information”

“积累有用信息的优势”

WARREN BUFFETT: What was the first question? Oh, the part about organizing —

沃伦·巴菲特：第一个问题是什么？哦，关于组织信息的部分——

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Oh, I’m just wondering, for those of us on the other side of the table, we get barraged with information. And I’m wondering how do you both — do you just read annuals, 10-Ks, and talk to people, and ignore everything else? And how do you keep track of everything, intellectually —?

观众：哦，我只是想知道，对于我们这些坐在桌子另一侧的人来说，总是被信息淹没。我想知道你们是如何处理的——是只看年报、10-K报告，与人交谈，而忽略其他一切吗？你们如何在智力上掌控一切——？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we don’t keep track of everything. But the beauty of — to some extent — of evaluating businesses — large businesses — is that it is all cumulative. I mean, if you started doing it 40 or so years ago, you really have got a working knowledge of an awful lot of businesses.

沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，我们并不掌控一切。但评估企业——尤其是大型企业——在某种程度上的妙处在于，这一切都是累积的。我的意思是，如果你从40年前开始做这件事，你实际上已经对许多企业积累了实用的知识。

But there aren’t that many, to start with, that are, you know —

但一开始也没有那么多，您知道——

And you can get a fix. You know, how many — what are there? Seventy-five, maybe, or so important industries. And you’ll get to understand how they operate.

而且您可以掌握这些。您知道，有多少个——大约有多少个？也许有75个左右的重要行业。而您会逐渐理解它们是如何运作的。

And you don’t have to start over again every day. And you don’t have to consult a computer for it or anything like that, it —

而且您不需要每天从头开始，也不需要借助电脑或其他类似的工具。

So it has the advantage of accumulation of useful information over time. And, you know, you just add the incremental bit at some point.

因此，它具有随着时间积累有用信息的优势。而且，您知道，您只需要在某个时间点添加一些增量信息。

You know, why did we decide to buy Coca-Cola in 1988? Well, it may have been, you know, just a couple small incremental bits of information. But that came into a mass that had been accumulated over decades.

您知道，我们为什么在1988年决定买入可口可乐？嗯，也许只是因为几条小的增量信息。但这些信息融入了几十年来积累的大量知识中。

And it’s a very — it’s a great business that way. It’s why we like businesses that don’t change too much, because the past is useful to us.

这是一个非常——这种方式很棒。这也是我们喜欢变化不大的企业的原因，因为过去对我们有用。

Charlie?

查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: I can’t add a thing to that.

查理·芒格：我对此无可补充。

2、《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

33. What Buffett wants in an annual report

巴菲特对年度报告的期望

WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Zone 2.

沃伦·巴菲特：好的，请第二区。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello. I’m Steve Davis (PH) from San Francisco.

观众提问者：你好，我是来自旧金山的史蒂夫·戴维斯（音）。

I’d like your advice on how to understand annual reports. What you look for, what’s important, what’s not important, and what you’ve learned over the years from reading thousands of reports? Thank you.

我想请教您关于如何解读年度报告的建议。您关注什么，什么重要，什么不重要，以及您从阅读数千份报告中学到了什么？谢谢。

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ve read a lot of reports, I will tell you that.

沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，我们确实读过很多报告，我可以告诉你。

And we — well, we start by looking at the reports of companies that we think we can understand. So we hope to find — we hope to be reading reports — and I do read hundreds of them every year — we hope to be reading reports of businesses that are understandable to us.

我们——我们首先会看那些我们认为可以理解的公司报告。所以我们希望找到——我们希望阅读那些——我每年确实阅读数百份——我们希望阅读的报告是关于我们能够理解的业务的。

And then we see from that report whether the management is telling us about the things that we would want to know about if we owned a hundred percent of the company.

然后，我们会从报告中看管理层是否在告诉我们，如果我们拥有公司100%的股份，我们想了解的内容。

And when we find a management that does tell us about those things, and that is candid in the same way that a manager of a subsidiary would be candid with us, and talks in language that we can understand, it definitely improves our feeling about investing in such a business.

当我们发现管理层确实在告诉我们这些内容，并且像子公司经理对我们坦诚一样坦率，并且以我们能够理解的语言交流时，这确实会增强我们对投资该业务的信心。

And the reverse turns us off, to some extent. So if we read a bunch of public relations gobbledygook, you know, and we see lots of pictures and no facts, it has some effect on our attitude toward a business.

反之，这在某种程度上会让我们感到不满。所以，如果我们读到的是一堆公关套话，充满了图片却没有事实，这会对我们对该业务的态度产生一些影响。

We want to understand the business better when we get through with the annual report than when we picked it up. And that is not difficult for a management to do if they want to do it.

我们希望在读完年度报告后比拿起报告时更好地理解该业务。而如果管理层愿意这样做，这并不难实现。

If they don’t want to do it, you know, we think that is a factor in whether we want to be their partners over a ten-year period or so.

如果他们不想这样做，我们认为这是我们是否愿意在十年左右的时间里与他们成为合作伙伴的一个考量因素。

But we’ve learned a lot from annual reports. For example, I would say that the Coca-Cola annual report over the last good many years is an enormously informative document. I mean, I can’t think of any way if I’d have a conversation with Roberto Goizueta, or now Doug Ivester, and they were telling me about the business, they would not be telling me more than I get from reading that annual report.

但我们从年度报告中学到了很多东西。例如，我会说，可口可乐多年来的年度报告是一份信息量极大的文件。我的意思是，我无法想象即使我与罗伯托·戈伊苏埃塔或现在的道格·艾维斯特交谈，他们能告诉我的内容会比我从阅读年度报告中获得的更多。

We bought that stock based on an annual report. We did not buy it based on any conversation of any kind with the top management of Coca-Cola before we bought our interest. We simply bought it based on reading the annual report, plus our knowledge of how the business worked.

我们买入这只股票完全是基于年度报告。我们在买入可口可乐的股份之前，并没有与其高管进行任何形式的交谈。我们只是通过阅读年度报告，再加上对业务运作方式的了解，做出了买入决定。

Charlie?

查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I do think the — if you’ve got a standardized bunch of popular jargon that looks like it came out of the same consulting firm, I do think it’s a big turnoff. That’s not to say that some of the consulting mantras aren’t right. But I think there’s a lot — that for a sort of candid, simple, coherent prose — a lot to be said for it.

查理·芒格：是的。我确实认为，如果一份报告充斥着一堆看起来像是出自同一家咨询公司的流行术语，会让人非常反感。这并不是说某些咨询流行语不正确。但我认为，坦率、简单、连贯的表达有很大的价值。

WARREN BUFFETT: Almost every business has problems, and we’d just as soon the manager would tell us about them.

沃伦·巴菲特：几乎每个企业都有问题，而我们希望经理能直接告诉我们这些问题。

We would like that in the businesses we run. In fact, one of the things, we give very little advice to our managers, but one thing we always do say is to tell us the bad news immediately. And I don’t see why that isn’t good advice for the manager of a public company.

我们希望在我们经营的企业中看到这种做法。事实上，我们很少给经理们建议，但我们总是告诉他们的一件事就是，立即告诉我们坏消息。我不明白为什么这对上市公司的经理来说不是一个好建议。

Over time, you know, I’m positive it’s the best policy. But a lot of companies, for example, have investor relations people, and they are dying just to pump out what they think is good news all the time.

随着时间的推移，我确信这是最好的政策。但很多公司都有投资者关系团队，他们热衷于不停地发布他们认为的好消息。

And they have this attitude that, you know, you’ve got a bunch of animals out there to be fed. And that they’re going to feed them what they want to eat all the time. And over time the animals learn.

他们的态度是，你知道，你有一群需要被喂养的动物。他们会一直喂给这些动物想要的东西。但随着时间的推移，这些动物也会学会辨别。

So we’ve tried to stay away from businesses like that.

因此，我们尽量避开这样的公司。

CHARLIE MUNGER: What you seldom see in an annual report is a sentence like this: “This is a very serious problem and we haven’t quite figured out yet how to handle it.” (Laughter)

查理·芒格：你很少在年度报告中看到这样一句话：“这是一个非常严重的问题，我们还没有完全想出如何解决它。”（笑声）

But believe me, that is an accurate statement much of the time.

但相信我，这在很多时候是一个准确的描述。

VOICE: — just a moment.

旁白：稍等一下。

(Buffett leaves the table after someone tells him something in his ear.)

(巴菲特听完别人耳语后离开了座位。)

3、《2007-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

35. What an annual report tells you about the CEO

年度报告告诉你关于首席执行官的信息

WARREN BUFFETT: Number 3.

沃伦·巴菲特：第三名。

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. My name is Stuart Kaye, and I’m from New York City.

观众成员：你好。我的名字是斯图尔特·凯，我来自纽约市。

Warren and Charlie, you spend a lot of time evaluating the management quality and integrity of the companies that you may invest in.

沃伦和查理，你们花了很多时间评估适投公司的管理质量和诚信。

In my current job, I do not have the opportunity to do that. As I read through annual reports and financial statements, what do you suggest I focus on to help me to determine the quality and integrity of management?

在我目前的工作中，我没有机会这样做。当我阅读年度报告和财务报表时，您建议我关注哪些方面以帮助我判断管理层的质量和诚信？

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, you can — we’ve spent many, many years — and we’ve bought many things. I mean, I — without meeting managements at all, having any entree to them.

沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，你可以——我们花了很多很多年——我们买了很多东西。我的意思是，我——完全没有见过管理层，也没有任何接触。

The stocks — the 5 billion of stocks — that we may have bought in the first quarter, most of those were companies I never met the management, never talked to them.

这些股票——价值 50 亿的股票——我们可能在第一季度买入，其中大多数公司的管理层我从未见过，也从未与他们交谈过。

We read a lot. We read annual reports. We read about competitors. We read about the industries they’re in.

我们阅读很多。我们阅读年度报告。我们阅读关于竞争对手的信息。我们阅读关于他们所在行业的信息。

In terms of sizing up managements — obviously if we’re going to buy the whole business, that’s a different question. Then you — because you — we’re going to buy it, be in bed with them, they’re going to run them, and we care very much about whether they’re going to behave in the future as they have in the past once we own the business. And we’ve had very good luck on that.

在评估管理层方面——显然，如果我们要收购整个企业，那是另一个问题。因为我们要买下它，与他们合作，他们将负责运营，我们非常关心他们在我们拥有企业后是否会像过去一样行事。在这方面，我们一直很幸运。

But in terms of marketable securities, we read the reports. Now, Charlie and I were just talking about one the other day where we read an annual report of a large oil company.

但在有价证券方面，我们阅读了报告。现在，查理和我刚刚谈到前几天我们阅读了一家大型石油公司的年度报告。

And the company — you know, hundred pages, public relations people, lots of pictures — spent a fortune on it. And you can’t find in that report what their finding cost per McF or per barrel of oil was last year. That’s the most important figure in an oil and gas company over a period of years, but every year counts.

而这家公司——你知道的，百页，公关人员，很多图片——花了一大笔钱。而你在那份报告中找不到他们去年每千立方英尺或每桶石油的勘探成本。这是一个石油和天然气公司多年中最重要的数字，但每一年都很重要。

The fact it wouldn’t even be discussed — the reason it wasn’t discussed, it was absolutely terrible — but the fact it wouldn’t even be discussed — and to the extent it was touched on, it was done in a dishonest manner.

事实上，这件事甚至不会被讨论——之所以没有被讨论，是因为它绝对糟糕——但事实上，它甚至不会被讨论——即使涉及到，也是在不诚实的方式下进行的。

When we read things where we basically are getting dishonest messages from the management, it makes a difference to us.

当我们阅读那些基本上从管理层那里得到不诚实信息的内容时，这对我们来说是有影响的。

You know, like I say, in marketable securities we can solve that by selling the stock, and it’s not the same thing as buying the entire business.

你知道，就像我说的，在有价证券方面，我们可以通过卖出股票来解决这个问题，这与购买整个业务不是一回事。

But I think you can learn a lot by reading the annual letters. I mean, for one thing, if it’s clearly the product of some investor relations department or outside consultant or something of the sort, you know, that tells you something about the individual.

但我认为你可以通过阅读年度信件学到很多东西。我的意思是，如果这显然是某个投资者关系部门或外部顾问或类似机构的产物，你知道，这就告诉你一些关于这个人的信息。

If he’s not willing to talk once a year through a few pages to the people that gave him their money to invest, I mean, that — I’ve really got — I’ve got some questions about people like that.

如果他不愿意每年通过几页纸与那些把钱交给他投资的人交流，我是说，我真的对这样的人有一些疑问。

So I like that feeling that I’m hearing directly from somebody who regards me as a partner.

所以我喜欢那种感觉，我直接听到一个把我视为伙伴的人说话。

And you may not get it all the way, but when I get it 0 percent of the way, I don’t like it.

而且你可能无法完全做到，但当我一点都做不到时，我不喜欢。

I’ve still bought — we’ve still bought into some — in marketable securities — we’ve bought into some extremely good businesses where we thought they were run by people we didn’t really like very well, because we didn’t feel they could screw them up.

我仍然买入了——我们仍然买入了一些——可交易证券——我们买入了一些非常好的企业，尽管我们认为这些企业由我们不太喜欢的人经营，因为我们觉得他们无法搞砸这些企业。

Charlie? 查理？

CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I think that’s exactly right. There are two things: the quality of the business and the quality of the management.

查理·芒格：是的。我认为这完全正确。有两件事：业务的质量和管理的质量。

And if the business is good enough, it will carry a lousy manager. And the converse case, where a really good manager gets in a really lousy business, he’ll ordinarily have a very imperfect record.

如果业务足够好，它可以容忍一个糟糕的经理。反过来，一个非常优秀的经理进入一个非常糟糕的业务，他通常会有一个非常不完美的记录。

In other words, it’s a rare person that can take over a textile business, totally doomed, which is what Warren did in his youthful folly —

换句话说，很少有人能够接手一个完全注定失败的纺织业务，这就是沃伦在年轻时的愚蠢行为——

WARREN BUFFETT: Right. 沃伦·巴菲特：对。

CHARLIE MUNGER: — and turn it into what’s happened here. You should not be looking for other Warrens on the theory they’re under every bush.

查理·芒格：——并将其转化为这里发生的事情。你不应该根据他们在每个角落都存在的理论去寻找其他的沃伦。

WARREN BUFFETT: I figured it out in 20 years, though. I’ll have to say that for myself. (Laughs)

沃伦·巴菲特：不过，我在 20 年内想明白了。我得为自己说这一点。（笑）

Twenty years, and I finally figured out I was in the wrong business.

二十年后，我终于明白我选错了行业。

But there are businesses — if you gave me first draft pick of all the CEOs in America and said it’s your job to run Ford Motor now or, you know, pick a company that’s in a terribly tough business, you know, I wouldn’t do it.

但是有些企业——如果你让我从所有美国的首席执行官中挑选第一顺位，并说现在你的工作是经营福特汽车公司，或者选择一家处于极其艰难行业的公司，我不会去做。

I mean, that it’s just too tough. They may get it solved, you know, if they get cooperation from unions and a whole bunch of things, but it will not be solely in the control of the CEO who has that job.

我的意思是，这实在是太难了。你知道，如果他们得到工会和一大堆事情的合作，他们可能会解决这个问题，但这不会仅仅由担任该职位的首席执行官控制。

He is dependent on too many good things happening outside to say that he alone can get the job, even if he’s the best in the world.

他过于依赖外界的好事来临，无法仅凭自己就能好这份工作，即使他是世界上最优秀的。

乔布斯回到苹果后再不想做To B的业务，他认为To C才是他真正想做的。

I.H.69.Warren Buffett.How to read annual reports

I.H.69.Warren Buffett.How to read annual reports

1、《1997-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

2、《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

3、《2007-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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