THE three last numbers of this paper have been dedicated to an enumeration of the dangers to which we should be exposed, in a state of disunion, from the arms and arts of foreign nations. I shall now proceed to delineate dangers of a different and, perhaps, still more alarming kind--those which will in all probability flow from dissensions between the States themselves, and from domestic factions and convulsions. These have been already in some instances slightly anticipated; but they deserve a more particular and more full investigation.

过去三期的文章致力于列举在分裂状态下，我们将面临的来自外国武力与阴谋的危险。我现在将继续描绘另一种，也许更令人震惊的危险——那些极有可能源于各州之间的不和以及国内派系与动乱的危险。这些危险此前虽已略有提及，但仍值得更为具体、更加全面的探讨。

A man must be far gone in Utopian speculations who can seriously doubt that, if these States should either be wholly disunited, or only united in partial confederacies, the subdivisions into which they might be thrown would have frequent and violent contests with each other. To presume a want of motives for such contests as an argument against their existence, would be to forget that men are ambitious, vindictive, and rapacious. To look for a continuation of harmony between a number of independent, unconnected sovereignties in the same neighborhood, would be to disregard the uniform course of human events, and to set at defiance the accumulated experience of ages.

只有沉溺于空想的人才会认真怀疑：如果这些州要么彻底分裂，要么仅结成若干局部联盟，那么它们可能被分割成的诸多部分之间将会频繁而激烈地相互争斗。以缺乏动机为由来否认这些冲突的存在，就是忘记人性中的雄心、报复心与贪婪。指望在同一地区内多个独立且互不相连的主权国家之间持续保持和谐，无异于无视人类历史的一贯轨迹，并藐视累积千年的经验。

The causes of hostility among nations are innumerable. There are some which have a general and almost constant operation upon the collective bodies of society. Of this description are the love of power or the desire of pre-eminence and dominion--the jealousy of power, or the desire of equality and safety. There are others which have a more circumscribed though an equally operative influence within their spheres. Such are the rivalships and competitions of commerce between commercial nations. And there are others, not less numerous than either of the former, which take their origin entirely in private passions; in the attachments, enmities, interests, hopes, and fears of leading individuals in the communities of which they are members. Men of this class, whether the favorites of a king or of a people, have in too many instances abused the confidence they possessed; and assuming the pretext of some public motive, have not scrupled to sacrifice the national tranquillity to personal advantage or personal gratification.

国家间敌意的成因不计其数。有些原因对整个社会群体具有普遍而几乎持续的作用，其中包括对权力的热爱或对卓越与统治地位的渴望——对权力的嫉妒，或对平等与安全的追求。另一些原因虽然作用范围更受限制，但在其领域内同样强大，例如商业国家之间的贸易竞争与对立。还有其他原因，数量不逊于前两者，完全来源于私人情感；它们产生于社群中领袖人物的偏爱、敌意、利益、希望与恐惧。无论是君王的宠臣还是人民的宠儿，这类人物在太多事例中滥用了他们所拥有的信任；他们假借某种公共动机，却毫不犹豫地把国家的安宁牺牲于个人利益或个人满足之下。

The celebrated Pericles, in compliance with the resentment of a prostitute,1 at the expense of much of the blood and treasure of his countrymen, attacked, vanquished, and destroyed the city of the SAMNIANS. The same man, stimulated by private pique against the MEGARENSIANS,2 another nation of Greece, or to avoid a prosecution with which he was threatened as an accomplice of a supposed theft of the statuary Phidias,3 or to get rid of the accusations prepared to be brought against him for dissipating the funds of the state in the purchase of popularity,4 or from a combination of all these causes, was the primitive author of that famous and fatal war, distinguished in the Grecian annals by the name of the PELOPONNESIAN war; which, after various vicissitudes, intermissions, and renewals, terminated in the ruin of the Athenian commonwealth.

著名的伯里克里斯仅仅为了顺从一名娼妇【1】的怨愤，便不惜耗费本国大量的血与财，攻打、征服并毁灭了萨摩斯城。同一个人因对麦加拉人【2】这一希腊民族的私人怨怼，或为逃避其与雕塑家菲迪亚斯【3】涉嫌盗窃之罪名的起诉，或为摆脱即将针对他挥霍国库资金以收买民心之指控【4】，抑或兼具以上所有原因，成为那场在希腊史中以“伯罗奔尼撒战争”著称、著名且致命之战争的始作俑者；该战争历经多次波折、间歇与重启，最终导致雅典城邦的覆亡。

The ambitious cardinal, who was prime minister to Henry VIII., permitting his vanity to aspire to the triple crown,5 entertained hopes of succeeding in the acquisition of that splendid prize by the influence of the Emperor Charles V. To secure the favor and interest of this enterprising and powerful monarch, he precipitated England into a war with France, contrary to the plainest dictates of policy, and at the hazard of the safety and independence, as well of the kingdom over which he presided by his counsels, as of Europe in general. For if there ever was a sovereign who bid fair to realize the project of universal monarchy, it was the Emperor Charles V., of whose intrigues Wolsey was at once the instrument and the dupe.

那位雄心勃勃的大主教——亨利八世的首相——因虚荣而妄想染指三重皇冠【5】，并寄望于凭借查理五世皇帝的影响来获得这一辉煌桂冠。为了赢得这位雄心勃勃、实力强大的君主的青睐与支持，他违背最明显的政策准则，将英格兰拖入对法战争，冒着危及他所辅佐之王国以及整个欧洲安全与独立的风险。若说历史上曾有君主最有可能实现“普世帝国”之企图，非查理五世莫属；而伍尔西既是其阴谋的工具，也成了其牺牲品。

The influence which the bigotry of one female,6 the petulance of another,7 and the cabals of a third,8 had in the contemporary policy, ferments, and pacifications, of a considerable part of Europe, are topics that have been too often descanted upon not to be generally known.

一个女子的狂热【6】、另一位女子的任性【7】，以及第三位女子的阴谋【8】，对当时欧洲相当部分地区的政策、动荡与和约所产生的影响，已被人反复论述，广为人知。

To multiply examples of the agency of personal considerations in the production of great national events, either foreign or domestic, according to their direction, would be an unnecessary waste of time. Those who have but a superficial acquaintance with the sources from which they are to be drawn, will themselves recollect a variety of instances; and those who have a tolerable knowledge of human nature will not stand in need of such lights to form their opinion either of the reality or extent of that agency. Perhaps, however, a reference, tending to illustrate the general principle, may with propriety be made to a case which has lately happened among ourselves. If Shays had not been a DESPERATE DEBTOR, it is much to be doubted whether Massachusetts would have been plunged into a civil war.

再举更多例子来说明个人因素对重大国内外事件产生影响，无论其指向如何，都无异于浪费时间。对这些素材来源稍有浅识的人自能回想起诸多事例；而对人性颇有了解的人，则无需这些事例也能判断这种影响的真实性与范围。然而，为阐明这一普遍原则，或许可适当地援引我们最近亲身经历的一件事：若非谢伊斯是个绝望债务人，马萨诸塞州很可能不会被拖入一场内战。

But notwithstanding the concurring testimony of experience, in this particular, there are still to be found visionary or designing men, who stand ready to advocate the paradox of perpetual peace between the States, though dismembered and alienated from each other. The genius of republics (say they) is pacific; the spirit of commerce has a tendency to soften the manners of men, and to extinguish those inflammable humors which have so often kindled into wars. Commercial republics, like ours, will never be disposed to waste themselves in ruinous contentions with each other. They will be governed by mutual interest, and will cultivate a spirit of mutual amity and concord.

然而，尽管经验就此已提供一致证据，仍有空想家或别有用心之人，准备为一个悖论辩护：即便各州被分裂、彼此疏离，也能保持永久和平。他们说，共和体制天性和平；商业精神能柔化人性，熄灭屡次引发战争的易燃情绪。像我们这样的商业共和国永不会甘于在相互毁灭的争斗中耗损自身；它们将受共同利益驱动，并培养相互友好与和谐的精神。

Is it not (we may ask these projectors in politics) the true interest of all nations to cultivate the same benevolent and philosophic spirit? If this be their true interest, have they in fact pursued it? Has it not, on the contrary, invariably been found that momentary passions, and immediate interest, have a more active and imperious control over human conduct than general or remote considerations of policy, utility or justice? Have republics in practice been less addicted to war than monarchies? Are not the former administered by MEN as well as the latter? Are there not aversions, predilections, rivalships, and desires of unjust acquisitions, that affect nations as well as kings? Are not popular assemblies frequently subject to the impulses of rage, resentment, jealousy, avarice, and of other irregular and violent propensities? Is it not well known that their determinations are often governed by a few individuals in whom they place confidence, and are, of course, liable to be tinctured by the passions and views of those individuals? Has commerce hitherto done anything more than change the objects of war? Is not the love of wealth as domineering and enterprising a passion as that of power or glory? Have there not been as many wars founded upon commercial motives since that has become the prevailing system of nations, as were before occasioned by the cupidity of territory or dominion? Has not the spirit of commerce, in many instances, administered new incentives to the appetite, both for the one and for the other? Let experience, the least fallible guide of human opinions, be appealed to for an answer to these inquiries.

我们不妨问这些政治空想家：所有国家培养同样仁慈而哲学的精神，难道不正是它们的真正利益所在吗？如果这确为其利益，它们实际上追求了吗？相反的事实是否一再表明，短暂的激情与眼前的利益对人类行为的支配，比宏观或遥远的政策、功利或正义考虑更为积极且强势？在实践中，共和国是否比君主国更少好战？两者都是由“人”来治理，不是吗？国家同君王一样，不也存在厌恶、偏好、竞争及对不义扩张的欲望吗？民众议会不也常受愤怒、怨恨、嫉妒、贪婪及其他不规则、激烈冲动的驱使吗？众所周知，他们的决策往往由少数获信赖之人所左右，因而自然染上这些人的激情与私见。迄今为止，商业除了改变战争目标之外，是否做过更多？对财富的渴望难道不像对权力或荣耀那样专横且进取吗？自商业成为各国占主导制度以来，基于商业动机的战争难道不与昔日因贪求领土或统治权而发动的战争同样频繁吗？商业精神在许多情况下，不是为对这两者的胃口增添了新的刺激吗？让经验——这一最不易出错的意见向导——来回答这些问题吧。

Sparta, Athens, Rome, and Carthage were all republics; two of them, Athens and Carthage, of the commercial kind. Yet were they as often engaged in wars, offensive and defensive, as the neighboring monarchies of the same times. Sparta was little better than a wellregulated camp; and Rome was never sated of carnage and conquest.

斯巴达、雅典、罗马与迦太基皆为共和国，其中雅典与迦太基属商业型。然而它们参与攻守战争的频繁程度，与当时周边的君主国别无二致。斯巴达几乎不过是一座纪律严整的大营，而罗马则永不厌倦杀戮与征服。

Carthage, though a commercial republic, was the aggressor in the very war that ended in her destruction. Hannibal had carried her arms into the heart of Italy and to the gates of Rome, before Scipio, in turn, gave him an overthrow in the territories of Carthage, and made a conquest of the commonwealth.

迦太基虽为商业共和国，却正是在导致其灭亡的那场战争中扮演了侵略者的角色。汉尼拔将迦太基之兵锋长驱意大利腹地，直抵罗马城门；而后西庇阿反攻，在迦太基本土击败他，并征服了这个城邦。

Venice, in later times, figured more than once in wars of ambition, till, becoming an object to the other Italian states, Pope Julius II. found means to accomplish that formidable league,9 which gave a deadly blow to the power and pride of this haughty republic.

在较晚时期，威尼斯不止一次因野心卷入战争；直至它成为其他意大利诸邦的眼中钉，教皇尤利乌斯二世促成那场强大的同盟【9】，重创了这傲慢共和国的权势与骄矜。

The provinces of Holland, till they were overwhelmed in debts and taxes, took a leading and conspicuous part in the wars of Europe. They had furious contests with England for the dominion of the sea, and were among the most persevering and most implacable of the opponents of Louis XIV.

荷兰诸省在被债务与税赋淹没之前，曾在欧洲战争中发挥主导且显著的作用。它们为争夺海上霸权与英格兰上演激烈斗争，也是路易十四最为坚持、最为不共戴天的对手之一。

In the government of Britain the representatives of the people compose one branch of the national legislature. Commerce has been for ages the predominant pursuit of that country. Few nations, nevertheless, have been more frequently engaged in war; and the wars in which that kingdom has been engaged have, in numerous instances, proceeded from the people.

在不列颠政体中，人民代表构成国家立法机关的一个议院。几个世纪以来，商业一直是该国的主导事业。然而很少有国家比它更频繁地卷入战争；而在许多情况下，这个王国所参与的战争正是出自人民之意。

There have been, if I may so express it, almost as many popular as royal wars. The cries of the nation and the importunities of their representatives have, upon various occasions, dragged their monarchs into war, or continued them in it, contrary to their inclinations, and sometimes contrary to the real interests of the State. In that memorable struggle for superiority between the rival houses of AUSTRIA and BOURBON, which so long kept Europe in a flame, it is well known that the antipathies of the English against the French, seconding the ambition, or rather the avarice, of a favorite leader,10 protracted the war beyond the limits marked out by sound policy, and for a considerable time in opposition to the views of the court.

恕我直言，历来由民众推动的战争几乎与由君主发动的战争一样多。全国的呼声与其代表的迫切要求在多种场合下，将君主拖入战争，或迫使其继续交战，违背了君主本人的意愿，有时也违背了国家的真正利益。在奥地利与波旁两个竞争王室为争夺霸权而长期将欧洲置于战火中的那场著名斗争中，众所周知，英国民众对法国人的厌恶，加之一位宠臣【10】的野心——或者说贪婪——使战争远远超出了理性政策所划定的界限，并且在相当长的时间里与朝廷的意向背道而驰。

The wars of these two last-mentioned nations have in a great measure grown out of commercial considerations,--the desire of supplanting and the fear of being supplanted, either in particular branches of traffic or in the general advantages of trade and navigation.

上述两国之间的战争在很大程度上源于商业因素——要么是取而代之的欲望，要么是害怕被取而代之，无论是在某些特定贸易领域，还是在一般的贸易和航运优势方面。

From this summary of what has taken place in other countries, whose situations have borne the nearest resemblance to our own, what reason can we have to confide in those reveries which would seduce us into an expectation of peace and cordiality between the members of the present confederacy, in a state of separation? Have we not already seen enough of the fallacy and extravagance of those idle theories which have amused us with promises of an exemption from the imperfections, weaknesses and evils incident to society in every shape? Is it not time to awake from the deceitful dream of a golden age, and to adopt as a practical maxim for the direction of our political conduct that we, as well as the other inhabitants of the globe, are yet remote from the happy empire of perfect wisdom and perfect virtue?

综观那些处境与我们最为相似的其他国家的经验，我们有什么理由去相信那些幻想，指望在分裂状态下今天联盟成员之间仍能保持和平与友好？那些用免除社会一切缺陷、弱点与罪恶的承诺来取悦我们的空洞理论，其荒谬与夸张，我们还看得不够多吗？是否是时候从那欺人的黄金时代美梦中醒来，切实地把这样一条原则作为政治行动的指针：我们和地球上的其他居民一样，仍远未达到完美智慧与完美德性的幸福境界？

Let the point of extreme depression to which our national dignity and credit have sunk, let the inconveniences felt everywhere from a lax and ill administration of government, let the revolt of a part of the State of North Carolina, the late menacing disturbances in Pennsylvania, and the actual insurrections and rebellions in Massachusetts, declare--!

就让我国威望与信用已跌至的深渊、让政府松弛失效所带来的无处不在的弊端、让北卡罗来纳州一部分地区的叛乱、让宾夕法尼亚最近的威胁性骚乱，以及马萨诸塞正在发生的暴动与叛乱来说明一切吧——！

So far is the general sense of mankind from corresponding with the tenets of those who endeavor to lull asleep our apprehensions of discord and hostility between the States, in the event of disunion, that it has from long observation of the progress of society become a sort of axiom in politics, that vicinity or nearness of situation, constitutes nations natural enemies. An intelligent writer expresses himself on this subject to this effect: "NEIGHBORING NATIONS (says he) are naturally enemies of each other unless their common weakness forces them to league in a CONFEDERATE REPUBLIC, and their constitution prevents the differences that neighborhood occasions, extinguishing that secret jealousy which disposes all states to aggrandize themselves at the expense of their neighbors.''11 This passage, at the same time, points out the EVIL and suggests the REMEDY.

人类的普遍认知与那些企图在分裂时麻痹我们对州际不和与敌意担忧的人所持信条相去甚远；长期观察社会发展已使政治上形成一种公理：地缘毗邻使国家自然而然地成为敌人。一位睿智的作家就此论题指出：“相邻的国家除非因共同弱点被迫结成联邦共和国，且其宪制能消除邻近引发的摩擦，抑制各邦以邻为壑、扩张自身的隐秘嫉妒，否则天生互为敌国。”【11】 这段话既指出了“祸患”，也提出了“良方”。

PUBLIUS.

蒲布利乌斯。

1 Aspasia, vide "Plutarch's Life of Pericles.''

阿斯帕西亚，见《普鲁塔克〈伯里克利传〉》。

2 Ibid.

同上。

3 Ibid.

同上。

4 Ibid. Phidias was supposed to have stolen some public gold, with the connivance of Pericles, for the embellishment of the statue of Minerva.

同上。据称菲迪亚斯在伯里克利默许下盗用部分公款，用于装饰雅典娜雕像。

5 P Worn by the popes.

三重冕（教皇所戴）。

6 Madame de Maintenon.

孟唐侬夫人。

7 Duchess of Marlborough.

马尔伯勒公爵夫人。

8 Madame de Pompadour.

蓬巴杜夫人。

9 The League of Cambray, comprehending the Emperor, the King of France, the King of Aragon, and most of the Italian princes and states.

坎布雷同盟，包括神圣罗马皇帝、法国国王、阿拉贡国王及大多数意大利诸侯与邦国。

10 The Duke of Marlborough.

马尔伯勒公爵。

11 Vide "Principes des Negociations'' par 1'Abbe de Mably.

见阿贝·德·马布里的《谈判原理》。