1993-04-26 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

Refer To：《1993-04-26 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》。

这个股东会的记录只存在《Outstanding Investor Digest, Vol. VIII, Nos. 3 & 4 (June 30, 1993)》，Outstanding Investor Digest已经停刊并且旧刊不好找，目前网上还没有这篇报告的影印件，以下是被人引用的部分片段。

What we refer to as a “moat” is what other people might call competitive advantage . . . It’s something that differentiates the company from its nearest competitors – either in service or low cost or taste or some other perceived virtue that the product possesses in the mind of the consumer versus the next best alternative . . . There are various kinds of moats. All economic moats are either widening or narrowing – even though you can’t see it.

我们所说的“moat（护城河）”，别人可能称为“竞争优势”。……它是把一家公司与最接近的竞争对手区分开来的东西——可能是服务、低成本、口味，或消费者相较于次优替代品在心智中感知到的其他优越性。……护城河有多种形式。所有的经济护城河要么在扩大，要么在收窄——只是你未必肉眼可见。

Warren Buffett: How do we go about reading annual reports and proxy statements? Frist, we read a lot of them. It’s very helpful to read a lot of annual reports and trade publications to get a better fix on certain businesses. A good many I just skim. But if I’m really interested in a company, I probably read every word – although some of the general descriptions lose me a little bit. But we start at the front and read to the back if we’re really interested in it. And we will be interested not only in any business that we own or are thinking of owning, but we’ll be interested in reading their competitors’. I get the Bic annual report. I get the Warner Lambert annual report to read about Schick. I get the PepsiCo annual report. I get the Cott Beverage report. Cott Beverage makes more of the generic colas than anybody – at least in this hemisphere. I want to know what competitors are doing and talking about, what results they are getting and what strategies seem logical to them. So I spend a lot of time reading annual reports.

Warren Buffett：我们如何阅读年报和代理声明（proxy statements）？首先，我们会读很多。大量阅读年报和行业刊物，有助于更准确地把握某些企业。我会把许多材料略读；但如果我对一家公司真正感兴趣，我大概会逐字细读——尽管有些概述性段落对我来说略显枯燥。如果我们真的感兴趣，就从头读到尾。而且我们不仅关注自己持有或考虑持有的企业，也会去读它们竞争对手的资料。我会看 Bic 的年报；我会看 Warner Lambert 的年报了解 Schick；我会看 PepsiCo 的年报；我也会看 Cott Beverage 的年报。Cott Beverage 至少在这一半球生产的通用可乐（generic colas）比任何公司都多。我想知道竞争对手在做什么、在谈什么，他们得到什么样的结果，以及他们觉得哪些战略是合理的。所以我花很多时间读年报。

Charlie Munger: If you just started reading annual reports at random, you wouldn’t learn as much. You have to have some body of theory in your head before you approach such a mass of data.

Charlie Munger：如果你只是随机地阅读年报，你学到的东西不会太多。在面对海量数据之前，你脑子里必须先有一套理论框架。

Warren Buffett: That’s a very good point. Unless you have an investment framework from which you are coming at the report, it will be essentially gibberish. If you are fitting in what you see to find out whether it is in your circle of competency, and whether it’s interesting if it is within it, it becomes a terribly useful document. I’ve learned a lot over the years just reading annual reports. Aside from this general body of knowledge that we may have – this is our main source material in terms of making investments. We don’t buy that many securities. But among the securities we buy, we often have made our decisions just by reading annual reports – not by visiting management. We usually do that afterwards. And some reports have been terribly helpful to us.

Warren Buffett：这是个非常好的观点。除非你带着一个投资框架去解读报告，否则它基本上就是天书。如果你把所见所闻往自己的能力圈里去匹配，判断它是否属于其中、若属于其中是否值得兴趣，那年报就会变成极有用的文件。多年来我仅靠阅读年报就学到了很多。撇开我们积累的一般性知识——在做投资上，年报是我们的主要信息来源。我们买的证券并不多，但在那些我们买入的证券里，很多决策就是靠读年报做出的——而不是拜访管理层。通常拜访是之后的事。而有些年报对我们非常有帮助。

没有正确的知识框架所有信息都是天书，不仅仅是投资，生活中的种种也是天书。

Warren Buffett: And once you’ve estimated future cash inflows and outflows, what interest rate do you use to discount that number back to arrive at a present value? My own feeling is that the long-term government rate is probably the most appropriate figure for most assets. And when Charlie and I felt subjectively that interest rates were on the low side – we’d probably be less inclined to be willing to sign up for that long-term government rate. We might add a point or two just generally. But the logic would drive you to use the long-term government rate. If you do that, there is no difference in economic reality between a stock and a bond. The difference is that the bond may tell you what the future cash flows are going to be in the future – whereas with a stock, you have to estimate it. That’s a harder job, but it’s potentially a much more rewarding job. Logically, if you leave out psychic income,that should be the way you evaluate a farm, an apartment house or whatever. And in a general way, Charlie and I do that.

Warren Buffett：当你估算出未来的现金流入与流出后，用什么利率把它们折现回现值？我个人认为，对大多数资产而言，采用长期政府债券利率（long-term government rate）可能最合适。而当我们主观上觉得利率偏低时——我们就不太愿意直接“签收”那个长期政府债券利率，通常会在其上额外加上一两个百分点。但从逻辑上讲，你会被推导到采用长期政府债券利率。如果这么做，那么在经济实质上，股票和债券就没有区别。不同在于，债券会把未来现金流写给你；而股票则需要你去估算。这更难，但潜在回报也更可观。按逻辑，如果撇开“心理收益（psychic income）”，你评估一个农场、一栋公寓或任何资产都应如此。总体而言，Charlie 和我就是这么做的。

1993-04-26 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

1993-04-26 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

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1993-04-26 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting

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