2021-06-14 James Dimon.Morgan Stanley U.S. Financials, Payments & Commercial Real Estate Conference
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
I have to read a disclosure statement first, and then we will move on to the main attraction. For important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at [www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures](http://www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures). If you have any questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
我需要先宣读一份披露声明，然后再进入今天的重点环节。有关重要披露信息，请参阅摩根士丹利研究披露网站 [www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures。如有任何疑问，请联系您的摩根士丹利销售代表。](http://www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures。如有任何疑问，请联系您的摩根士丹利销售代表。)
With that out of the way, I'm pleased to have with us this morning, Jamie Dimon, who needs no introduction as Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase. Jamie, thanks so much for sharing some time with us this morning.
说完这些，我很高兴今天上午邀请到摩根大通董事长兼首席执行官 Jamie Dimon。他无需过多介绍。Jamie，非常感谢你今天抽出时间与我们交流。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Thrilled to be here, and next time, in person.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
很高兴参加，期待下次能亲自到场。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
That sounds great. Your final Zoom meeting, hopefully. Okay.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
听起来很棒，希望这是你最后一次用 Zoom。好的。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
\[indiscernible] the end of them. Yes.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
\[听不清] 结束它们。是的。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Well, let's kick off with a few near-term questions before we dig into the strategy side. And on the one hand, REITs continue to be very low. But on the other hand, as you mentioned in your shareholder letter, there is real inflation risk out there. And I'm wondering how you're positioning JPMorgan Chase in this environment.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
在深入战略话题前，先来几个短期问题。一方面，REIT 收益率仍然非常低；但另一方面，正如你在致股东信中提到的，确实存在通胀风险。我想了解在这种环境下摩根大通如何进行布局。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. So we do expect rates to stay low for the long because the Fed has told us that. But you see there are -- if you look at our balance sheet, we have like \$500 billion of cash. And we've actually been effectively stockpiling more and more cash, waiting for opportunities to invest at higher rates. So our balance sheet is positioned that will benefit from rising rates, both the short end and the long run and loan rates. And that really depends on decisions we make over the next 6 to 9 months. But I do expect you're going to see higher rates and more inflation, and we're prepared for that.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。我们确实预计利率会在较长时间内保持低位，因为美联储已经这么表示。但正如你所见——查看我们的资产负债表，我们大约持有 5,000 亿美元现金。实际上，我们一直在有效地囤积越来越多的现金，等待更高利率时的投资机会。因此，我们的资产负债表已布局好，可从利率上升中受益，无论是短端、长端还是贷款利率。这很大程度上取决于未来 6 至 9 个月我们做出的决定。但我确实预计你们会看到更高的利率和更多的通胀，我们已为此做好准备。
And of course, and also all things being equal -- and things aren't always equal. I think you're also going to have like a very, very strong economy. And so a very strong economy has other implications for us. We try to take all that in consideration when we manage the balance sheet.
当然，事事并非都相同——情况并不总是完全一致。我认为你们还将看到一个非常强劲的经济体。强劲的经济对我们也会产生其他影响。在管理资产负债表时，我们会把这一切纳入考量。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So what does that mean for your outlook for NII for 2021? I think you guided to \$55 billion. Is that still intact?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
那么，这对你们 2021 年的净利息收入（NII）展望意味着什么？我记得你们指引为 550 亿美元，这个数字仍然有效吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
It's \$52.5 billion, so you can change your models. I know it's a little disappointing, but sorry. And part of that, I'd say about half the difference is card balances being lower. That's not all bad. There's a huge offset -- not a huge offset, but a partial offset in charge-offs. But I don't look at that as bad. I think the consumers are in an unbelievable good shape and it's kind of like the pump is prime for the future, and they will borrow again at one point.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是 525 亿美元，所以你们可以调整模型。我知道这有点令人失望，但抱歉。我认为其中大约一半差异来自信用卡余额下降。这并非全是坏事，冲销费用有较大——虽然不算巨大——但有一定抵消作用。但我并不认为这不好。我认为消费者状况好得令人难以置信，可以说已经蓄势待发，未来他们会再次借款。
And the second half, I'd say, is mostly discretionary. We've just not been reinvesting a lot of proceeds to be weighted. Mortgage prepayments a little bit higher, you can reinvest those, too, we haven't. So that's discretionary. And so the run rate by the end of the year may be a little bit higher than \$52.5 billion, but that's about where we are today.
下半部分差异主要属自主决策。我们并未将大量回笼资金重新投资以耐心等待机会。抵押贷款提前偿还略高，你也可以把这些再投资，但我们没有，因此这部分是可自由支配的。所以到年底的运行水平可能会稍高于 525 亿美元，但目前大致就是这个水平。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So the natural follow-up here is what will be -- what are the triggers for reinvesting from that liquidity pool into securities? What are you waiting for to see there?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
因此，自然要追问的是：你们将何时——或者说触发条件是什么——把流动性池中的资金重新投资到证券？你们在等待看到什么信号？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Well, you're making a good point. It will -- there's a lot of discretion in securities. Obviously, loan is an output. So if cards go -- loans go up, you may see other loans go up a little bit. But that \$500 billion of cash, you can invest \$200 billion tomorrow and earn a lot more money on it. On the other hand, you would dramatically decrease your interest rate exposure to rising rates. And I think you need to protect yourself against rising rates? So it's purely discretionary. And you'll just find out one day if we made the right decision or not.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
你提到了一个好问题。这主要取决于我们对证券投资的自由裁量。当然，贷款是一个结果变量。如果信用卡——贷款上升，其他贷款也可能小幅增长。但那 5,000 亿美元现金中，你明天就可以拿 2,000 亿去投资，赚取更多收益。另一方面，这会显著降低你对利率上升的敏感敞口。而我认为你需要对利率上升进行防护。所以这完全是自主决策。最终某一天你们就会知道我们是否做出了正确的决定。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. What about markets? You've had this quarter, a little bit more normalized markets, but there has still been some decent amount of volatility. How has IB been trading businesses trending so far this quarter?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的。那么市场情况如何？本季度市场更趋正常，但仍存在相当幅度的波动。到目前为止，投行业务下的交易板块表现如何？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. So remember, the quarter last year was exceptional. The quarter -- last quarter is exceptional. This quarter is what I call more normal, where you can plug in your model, make it really simple. It's like something a little bit north of \$6 billion, which is still pretty good, by the way. And probably better than we told you last time as the last time we said, were like 2019. I forgot what that number was, but plugging the number a little bit north of \$6 billion.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。请记住，去年同期极其突出，上个季度也很出色。本季度我称之为更正常的水平，你们可在模型中简单填入一个数字，大概略高于 60 亿美元，顺便说一句，这仍然相当不错。可能也好于我们上次告诉你们的数字——当时说大约是 2019 年的水平。我忘了那个具体数字，但现在可填入稍高于 60 亿美元。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
\$6 billion is for your trading revenues.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
60 亿美元是指你们的交易收入。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
All trading, yes.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
所有交易收入，是的。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. Fixed income and equities.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的，包括固定收益和股票业务。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
没错。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And then investment banking revenues is on top of that, obviously?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
那么，投资银行收入显然是在此基础之上，对吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Investment banking is having -- it could be one of the best quarters we've ever seen. And I would just use a number like up 20% from both prior year, prior quarter. It could be 15% to 20%. And the reason for that is there are big deals, it may or may not close. So we don't always know exactly why it's done, but you've had a very, very active quarter at ECM, DCM and M\&A.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
投资银行业务可能迎来我们有史以来最好的季度之一。我会给出一个数字，比如较去年同期、上一季度均增长约 20%，可能是 15% 到 20%。原因在于有一些大型交易，可能会或可能不会在本季度落地。我们并不总能确切知道成交原因，但在 ECM、DCM 以及并购领域，本季度的活动非常频繁。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. All right. And I will just remind listeners, if you have a question, you can type it into your browser, and we'll get to them.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的。我也提醒各位听众，如有问题可在浏览器中输入，我们会进行提问。
I'm going to turn now towards growth strategy, okay, with the quarter out of the way there, Jamie. Turning to growth and other business opportunities. Look, you're already #1 across a very broad range of products and markets. So the question we get often is where is the next leg of growth going to come from? Is it new share gain? Is it new geography? I assume it's a little bit of both, but maybe you could give us your sense of the skew there.
现在，我想把话题转向增长战略，Jamie，本季度业绩问题已谈完。让我们谈谈增长及其他业务机会。看，你们已经在非常广泛的产品与市场中位居第一。那么我们经常被问到的问题是，下一阶段的增长将来自哪里？是新的市场份额？还是新的地理区域？我猜两者都会有一些，但也许你可以谈谈各自的侧重。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes, it's a little -- it is a little bit of both, and we've got plenty of way to go. But it's now more like three yards and a cloud of dust. It's very tough competition, both your base competition, fintech, big tech. So the landscape is changing dramatically. But in the United States, we're going to be in 48 branches by the end of this year. We're still gaining share in small business, small business credit card, branch deposits. We think we have a long way to go with investments basing the brand system. We're very good to Ultra High Net Worth with private bank. We've got like 1% to 2% when you talk about the smaller, but important investment accounts.
是的，两者都占一些，我们仍有很大成长空间。但现在更像是“推进三码、尘土飞扬”。竞争非常激烈，既有传统同业，也有金融科技、巨型科技公司，格局剧变。不过在美国，到今年年底我们将在 48 个地区设立分行。我们仍在小企业、小企信用卡、网点存款领域提升份额。对于依托品牌体系的投资业务，我们认为前路漫长。私人银行在超高净值客户方面表现优异。谈到规模较小但重要的投资账户，我们的份额只有约 1%–2%。
So in credit card, we think we have ways to go. And I mean there's not one area. We don't think we can do a little bit better job in certain segments or something like that. And that's true for commercial banking. We're now in -- I've got the number, but close to 75 of the top 75 MSAs. We do much more segmentation. So we're going to have more against the innovation economy. We still think we can get up our share of investment banking fees in the commercial bank.
在信用卡业务上，我们认为仍大有可为。事实上，没有哪个领域我们觉得无法在某些细分市场再做得更好。商业银行亦然。我们现在已覆盖——我忘了具体数字——大约前 75 大都会区中的 75 个。我们进行了更精细的市场细分，未来将在创新经济领域更有作为。我们依然认为可以提高商业银行中的投行业务费收入份额。
Asset & Wealth Management, I already mentioned part of it. There are products that -- we just bought 55 IP, which is a tax-advantaged investment tool, and investors are very smart people, which are embedding all the things we do. There's the high net worth. There are certain products and services. I think people still need a lot of financial advice.
至于资产与财富管理，我已提到一部分。我们刚刚收购了 55 IP，这是一款具备税收优势的投资工具，善于将我们所有能力加以整合的投资者非常聪明。此外还有高净值客群，以及一些特定产品与服务。我认为市场仍极度需要金融咨询。
And CIB, it's the same thing. You go country by country, industry group by industry group, and trading at a detailed level, what flows you have and what flows you don't have, a lot of that in the trading area is going to be about what you build electronically. So across everything I just said, a lot of it is what we do in tech. So it's -- think of this, any bankers, any locations, adding tech. Those are the 3 things that pretty much drive the future. And I'm pretty sure we can gain share overall. Not in every little thing we do, because obviously, the competition is moving pretty quick, too.
在企业与投资银行业务方面同理。逐国、逐行业细分，细究交易层面的资金流向：哪些是我们掌握的、哪些还没有；其中很多取决于我们在电子化平台上的建设。因此，以上所有板块，都离不开我们的科技投入——无论何种银行家、何地网点，外加技术，这三者基本决定未来。我相当确信我们总体上还能提升份额，虽然不一定在每一个细小领域都能如此，因为竞争显然也在快速推进。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So now, at one time, you were doing consumer almost entirely, if not entirely in the U.S. And that seems to have changed recently. You're leaning into the U.K., you're thinking about other geographies with consumer specifically. So maybe you could give us a sense as to what changed in your mind that brought you back to some markets that you had previously exited?
曾几何时，你们的消费者业务几乎——如果不是完全——都局限在美国。最近情况似乎有变，你们正倾向于进入英国市场，并考虑其他地区的消费者业务。能否谈谈是什么促使你们重新进入此前退出的一些市场？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. So what we always said is we're not going to do retail overseas. I gave examples of branches where if I added 100 branches somewhere, I have to add all the additional overhead. And so not just the 4 walls and a few people, but you need to have -- you need to be hooked up to our product systems, you need the languages, the compliance, the laws. They're all different. I can open 100 branches in Mumbai or 100 branches in the U.K., and there's no chance I get enough share to make up for additional overhead. As opposed to I have 100 branches here, I'm not adding any additional cost other than the 4-wall costs. And we have all the products, all the brand, all the connections, so that make sense.
是的。我们过去始终表示不会在海外做零售。我举过例子：如果在某地新开 100 家网点，就必须承担所有新增的运营成本，不仅是四面墙和几名员工，你还需要接入我们的产品系统、语言、本地合规与法律要求，一切都不同。我可以在孟买或英国各开 100 家分行，但无法获得足够份额来抵消新增成本；而在本土再增 100 家网点，除门店本身外无需额外开支，我们已有全部产品、品牌与连接网络，这才合乎商业逻辑。
Digital changes that. And so what we're doing digitally in the U.K. is a chance to see, can we do something different. We haven't announced the brand. We haven't done a bunch of stuff. It's just a really neat stuff in it. We -- I think it's all internal people right now. And we think of it as -- it's a long-term play. What can we do with our plan? Can we build it? And the U.K. is a beginning. If it works there, then we'll think about other things you could do with that.
而数字化改变了这一切。我们在英国的数字化尝试就是看看能否做出不一样的东西。我们尚未公布品牌，也还没做太多事情，但其中包含非常酷的内容——目前完全由内部团队负责。我们把这视为长期布局：我们的方案能实现什么？能否搭建起来？英国只是个开始，如果那里成功，我们再考虑如何进一步拓展。
JPM在扩张，HSBC在收缩。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And it's really starting off from a deposit perspective. Is that right?
而且这确实是从存款业务起步，对吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes, but more to come.
是的，但后续还有更多。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. Let's look at expenses. Your expenses for 2021 have been creeping up a bit. Was it 68 then 69 then 70? And maybe you can give us a sense as to what's driving that? I mean part of it is paying people out higher revenues, more expenses. But how much of this is going to be in the run rate because of fintech threat or other needs to invest?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的，让我们谈谈费用。你们 2021 年的费用一直在小幅上升，从 680 亿到 690 亿再到 700 亿？能否说明是什么在推动上涨？部分原因是营收提升带来更高薪酬支出，但出于应对金融科技威胁或其他投资需要，其中有多少将成为经常性开支？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I would guess most is in the run rate. I mean of the \$2 billion increase, about \$1 billion is comp. Part of that's for good reason. We've done quite well and we like to pay people with their performance. And the rest is a whole smattering of different stuff, which I won't go through. But I've told our investors like nonstop for the last -- as you know me, as you pointed out, since 2002, we will do whatever we have to do to win in the marketplace. So when we find opportunities, we're going to grab them. It could be marketing.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
我认为大部分都会进入常态。20 亿美元增量中，大约 10 亿来自薪酬，这在某种意义上是好事，我们业绩优异，也愿意按表现付薪。剩余部分是林林总总的其他项目，我就不细说了。自 2002 年以来，我一直不断告诉投资者，为在市场上取胜我们会不惜一切，只要发现机会就会抓住，可能是市场推广等。
And obviously, there are different market opportunity today. So Marianne Lake and Jennifer Piepszak, they know exactly what I think. It could be technology, it could be opening those branches. And these are the things that hopefully will drive profits for a decade, and they're not short-term things. And I buy -- I think, they're far more important than next quarter. And so I think people are really focused in the next quarter. We have to focus on being the competition for the next 50 years.
显然，今天的市场机会各不相同。Marianne Lake 和 Jennifer Piepszak 非常清楚我的想法：可能投向技术，也可能是新开网点。这些投入有望在未来十年驱动利润，而非短期行为。我坚信它们远比下一季度重要；当外界都盯着下季度时，我们必须着眼未来 50 年的竞争。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And that said, where are you putting the investments to work in particular, in fintech? There's always a lot of discussion around the payments, the asset management, the data, et cetera. But how do you think about the go-to-market strategy with fintech? How do you think about buy versus build? How do you think about what's getting your investment dollars first?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
说到这点，特别是在金融科技领域，你们将资金具体投向哪里？围绕支付、资管、数据等一直讨论很多。你们如何制定与金融科技合作的市场策略？如何权衡“买”还是“建”？哪些方向最先获得投资？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Right. So I mean, \[indiscernible] if you look at our capital, we always will invest in the business first before all the other things we do. And we're not to get buy versus build, right? To me, there's time we buy. We can build our own registry plants, but we don't do that. We could build our own lights. We don't do that. We can build our own computers. We don't do that. We buy them. Like -- but -- and so we're willing to partner with people. I think we own a piece of over 100 different fintech companies. And then with some of them, we both compete and partner, which we do with Goldman Sachs.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。若看我们的资本使用，业务投资始终排在首位。至于买还是建，并非非此即彼。有时我们会选择收购——比如可以自造登记平台、灯具、电脑，但我们选择购买。所以我们乐于与他人合作。我想我们持有 100 多家金融科技公司的股份，其中一些既是竞争者也是合作伙伴，就像我们与高盛那样。
So to me, we're kind of used to operate in that world. But there are some obvious things when they can build a piece of software that's going to be used by 500 million people, and I would have to spend the same amount of money building the software to be used by my 20 million people. Obviously, it makes sense to partner. And so there are other ones, which are they're embedded in our IP, like so they're embedded in everything we do, and it would make sense not to partner. And so -- but think of it as all of it is -- you got to get to -- the cloud is real, AI is real. Therefore, you've got to get your applications and your data into the cloud, and that is a lot of heavy lifting. And so that's an investment in the future.
因此，我们习惯于在这种环境下运作。有时显而易见：若对方能开发出 5 亿人使用的软件，而我为 2000 万客户自建需花同样成本，那当然应该合作。也有一些技术深度嵌入我们的知识产权和业务之中，合作就不合适。归根结底，云是真实的，AI 也是真实的，所以必须把应用和数据迁上云，这是一项艰巨任务，也是面向未来的投资。
You don't always necessarily see it, but what you see the consumer sees is digital. They see all this stuff, the credit journey, Chase offers, personalization. The amount of fraud we stop and the risk we stop, the better market we can do is -- that's extraordinary. And you see that in the consumer side, you see it in private banking. You're going to see it -- you see it in JPMorgan Invest, which is the new name for You Invest. And You Invest, it's got \$50 billion in it. And we don't even think it's a very good product yet. So we're driving that thing. And so we're going to drive them all. And we think we have huge competitive advantage, and we keep on doing this and huge competition. And I'd point out over and over, that competition is way beyond anything the banks have seen in the last 50, 75 years.
这些投入未必都能直观看到，但消费者看到的数字化体验——信用旅程、Chase 优惠、个性化——以及我们阻止的欺诈与风险、提升的营销效率，都极其惊人。在零售银行、私人银行都能看到这一点，也会在 JPMorgan Invest（原 You Invest）中看到；该平台规模已达 500 亿美元，我们甚至认为它还算不上非常优秀。我们将持续推进这些项目，并推动所有业务。我们拥有巨大竞争优势，也面临激烈竞争。我一再强调，如今的竞争远超银行业过去 50–75 年所经历的一切。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
It feels like the competition on the fintech side really heated up significantly on more of the payments angle, right, like you've got Square and Stripe and SoFi, et cetera. There's obviously some competition on the wealth side, maybe it's not as intense as what those companies have done to those markets that they're attacking. What do you think it is that they did that got them to that space? And what can you do to, I don't know, clip their wings? I mean you want that growth that they're delivering, right?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
感觉在金融科技领域的竞争，尤其是在支付端，明显升温，例如 Square、Stripe、SoFi 等玩家。财富管理领域也有竞争，但似乎不如他们在进攻市场时那样激烈。你认为他们做到什么，才让他们进入这一赛道？你们又能采取什么措施——可以说，削弱他们的优势吗？毕竟你也想要他们所带来的那种增长，对吧？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. And in some ways, you get it. So if you look at like some of the things we -- I mean we got to be a little self-critical here. We could have done what Square did and we didn't, okay? And so if you were at my management meeting, I tell them, we could have done it and we didn't. We didn't have the imagination to do it. It wasn't a technology. It wasn't like that hard to add. The dongle itself was any mythical. But they added data and services and advances against credit card receipts, and that advance against credit receipts has been taking place my whole life. That's not new. They just digitized it and made it simple and clear. And so they're all these things, so when we meet as a management team -- where the adjacencies we should be adding to, merchant services or Asset & Wealth Management or CIB or custody or trading. And there are exceptional ones.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的，在某种程度上，你提到了重点。拿我们自己来说——必须做些自我反思——Square 做到的事，其实我们也完全能做，却没有去做。在我的管理层会议上，我告诉大家：我们本可以做到，但我们没做到；并不是技术问题，难度也不高，那个“小方块”读卡器本身没什么神秘。不过 Square 加入了数据、服务，并向商户的信用卡回款做预支，这种“基于回款的预付”我一辈子都见过，并不新鲜。他们只是把它数字化，变得简单清晰。这些都是我们在管理层会议上要讨论的相邻领域——商户服务、资产与财富管理、企业与投资银行、托管、交易等——有些机会非常突出。
So -- and then we could buy things around it. We bought 55ip, tax enhanced investing. We bought InstaMed, which is payments for between health care providers and consumers. We bought WePay, which helps hook us into other people building API, things for consumers, digital consumer businesses, et cetera. So there's tons of stuff we could do, and we just have to do it ourselves and move quickly. I mean it is a question of speed.
因此，我们也可以围绕核心进行收购。我们收购了 55ip（税收优化投资平台），收购了 InstaMed（医疗机构与消费者之间的支付平台），收购了 WePay（帮助我们接入其他开发 API、面向消费者的数字业务等）。我们能做的事情太多了，关键是要自己动手、动作要快，说到底比的是速度。
They are very good at reducing pain points. They have a lot of money. They have the benefit of not having legacy systems. I don't say legacy systems are bad. No, they're part of what made us successful. When you're running like 60 million credit cards on one system, it's very efficient. On the other hand, in terms of being able to update that system all the time and use the data more efficiently, it's very inefficient. You've got to get it to the cloud. So a lot of work to do. I mean I'm comfortable to compete. But I think banks are really going to be under the gun.
这些公司非常擅长消除痛点，而且手握大量资金，没有遗留系统的包袱。我并不是说遗留系统不好——它们曾是我们成功的重要基础；比如在同一系统上运行 6,000 万张信用卡效率极高。但相反，要持续更新系统、更加高效地利用数据就非常低效，因此必须把系统迁移到云端。还有很多工作要做。我对竞争并不担心，但我认为银行业将真正面临巨大压力。
I mean -- and you mentioned payments. PayPal is bringing every bank and ruled other than us -- and Bank of America. Square, Stripe, and I am talking about the other \$600 billion that's been invested \[ and valued with ] fintech companies as before you get to big tech, that's before you do shadow banking. And some of the shadow banks are, you can call them fintech like Citadel or Jane Street. I mean I don't know you call them at this point.
拿支付来说吧。除了我们和美国银行之外，PayPal 几乎把所有银行“打成配角”。再有 Square、Stripe，还有其他金融科技公司里被投资、估值的 6,000 亿美元——这还没算上大科技公司，也没算影子银行。有些影子银行，比如 Citadel、Jane Street，也可以称作“金融科技”？我不知道该如何定义了。
So that competition is tough. And it's way different has been before. And I think in the banking system, counter what people think has got smaller and smaller, smaller relatively. And if you look at the market cap of all the banks in Europe combined is \$1 trillion, which is the same there was 20 years ago. And even the G-SIFI banks in the United States have got a number \$1.5 trillion or something, which isn't that different than it was 20 years ago. And meanwhile, these other things have become huge. I'm not talking about Visa, \$400 billion; MasterCard, \$300 billion. And we got the Chinese banks coming. So I think the banking systems is going to be really in tough shape. That's my own personal view, and there will be winners in there, but it won't be all of them.
因此，这种竞争非常激烈，而且与以往大相径庭。我认为，银行体系相对于整体金融业的“份额”正越来越小。看看欧洲所有银行的总市值，大约 1 万亿美元，与 20 年前相同；美国的 G-SIFI 级别大行加起来大约 1.5 万亿美元，也与 20 年前差别不大。与此同时，其他参与者的规模却变得庞大——Visa 4,000 亿美元，MasterCard 3,000 亿美元，中国的大银行也在崛起。所以我认为银行体系将处境艰难——这是我个人的看法，里面会有赢家，但不会人人都是赢家。
科技侵占金融相对容易，纯信息的处理。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And where is JPM in the winners' circle?
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
那么 JPM 在赢家圈中处于什么位置？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
You're talking to a competitive group of people. I think we have some of the smart people in the business. We'll do whatever it takes and so help us God. I really mean it. I talk about management. I mean I tell people some -- at one point it's the gravel in the gut and the spit in the eye is going to matter. We have to fight. We have to move quicker. We've got a kill our own bureaucracies more important than it's ever been. And then I've always been that way, but I just think that we have to do it to succeed. And we're going to, and we have been, but we shouldn't take it for granted.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
你面对的是一群极具竞争精神的人。我认为我们拥有业内最聪明的一些人才。为了赢得市场，我们会不惜一切，上帝也会助我们一臂之力——这话我完全当真。在管理层面，我常告诉大家，有时候“口含碎石、眼含烈火”才最关键。我们必须战斗、必须加快脚步，必须比以往任何时候都更决心打破官僚阻碍。我一直秉持这种态度，也认为只有这样才能成功。我们过去如此、未来也会如此，但绝不能把成功视为理所当然。
And Daniel and Gordon, the two co-Presidents, who both are exceptional, by the way, among the other exceptional people we have here, but we sit in these rooms, we talk about -- the conversation more about, let's assume that some of these other people succeed. One of the things that fintechs have been very good at is bobbing and weaving. They start here. It doesn't seem important. Also they're over here. They're looking for add products, looking to add services, looking to change price, looking at add-on pricing. In a lot of cases, they're not cheaper than what we do for the customer. They're easier. And so we have to be very nimble in how we move about.
另外，两位联席总裁 Daniel 和 Gordon——他们与我们这里的其他杰出人才一样出色——与我坐在会议室里时，总在讨论一个前提：假设那些竞争者真的成功了怎么办？金融科技公司最大的本事之一就是“游移闪避”——从某个看似不起眼的点切入，然后迅速换位，加产品、加服务、调价、做增值收费。很多情况下，他们给客户的价格并不比我们低，但使用起来更便捷。因此，我们在行动上必须极其灵活。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. So there's 3 other fintech competitor things I want to talk about before I go into some of the things you're doing in payments strategically. One is buy now, pay later. And is that something that matters to you? Are you doing anything there?
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
好。在谈到你们支付战略之前，我想先讨论另外三个金融科技竞争领域。第一是“先买后付”（BNPL）。这对你们重要吗？你们在这方面有什么动作？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
We do. We have Chase My Loan and Chase My Plan, which I just got the number, is \$2 billion of loans is not bad. Buy now pay later in the United States, I think, is about \$50 billion. It's growing unbelievably rapidly. Again, what they'd -- and we've -- a credit card, buy now pay later. And so this thing paying for thing became very popular. And it's real. But part of the thing that makes it so real they do at the point of sale.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
我们确实在做。我们有 Chase My Loan 和 Chase My Plan，目前余额大约 20 亿美元，还不错。美国的 BNPL 市场规模约 500 亿美元，增长速度惊人。说到底，这跟信用卡分期一个逻辑，只是“分四期付款”这种模式在销售点直接完成，非常受欢迎，也确实行之有效。
And again, think of the imagination that we could have had, but we didn't. So get you \[indiscernible] to the point of sale with it. And the merchants who complain about credit card fees are paying 4% or 5% in that. And that's where the spread comes in for the buy now, pay later. So we're taking it quite seriously. But it's not going to -- of all the credit card outstandings, which are \$800 billion in auto outstandings and other stuff, we think we'll be able to compete with Chase My Plan and Chase My Loan. And yes, and I like the BNPL. That's what customers want, we got to learn how to do it.
再想想，我们本可以率先做到这一点，却错失良机。BNPL 直接切入销售点，那些抱怨刷卡费率的商户在 BNPL 里反而支付 4%–5% 的费用，其中就是利润空间。所以我们非常重视。但即便如此，信用卡未偿余额总计 8,000 亿美元，还有汽车贷款等业务，我们相信凭借 Chase My Plan 和 Chase My Loan 完全有能力竞争。我认可 BNPL，这正是客户想要的，我们必须学会把它做好。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. The next question here is...
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
好的，下一问题是……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
But it's not life threatening.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
不过，这并不是致命威胁。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Yes. Well, that's the other follow-up, right? On that is, hey, is BNPL going to take out your card balance as a total?
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
对。这正是后续的问题：BNPL 会不会整体上蚕食你们的信用卡余额？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
It will also become more competitive, right? Like as the merchants get more options, they're going to negotiate those fees down a little bit, so.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
竞争也会越来越激烈，对吧？随着商户选择增多，他们会把这些费用再谈低一些，等等。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Well, and also BNPL is supposed to be paid out a debit, right? It's not a leverage product and it's for -- it needed more for pay?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
此外，BNPL 理应通过借记卡扣款，对吧？它并不是杠杆型产品，更侧重于支付？
Again, you're talking about banks, the first payment comes out of a bank. That's part of the underlying process for the pay now, buy later -- pay later -- buy now pay later. So we -- the banks have to learn to be very nimble and use our assets to move very quickly, too. And some have done -- actually, some banks do some of these things quicker than us, and so hats off to them.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
归根结底，首笔扣款仍出自银行账户，这是“先买后付”基础流程的一环。因此，银行也必须变得非常灵活，利用自身资源迅速行动。实际上，有些银行在这方面动作比我们还快，我们也要向他们致敬。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
What about the big tech or the big companies like the Walmart, big tech, Apple, Amazon, et cetera? What are you doing there to try to launch the product?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
那么，大型科技或大型企业——例如沃尔玛、苹果、亚马逊等——的动向如何？面对他们推新的产品，你们采取了哪些应对措施？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
First of all, some are going to have their own issues. They've got a lot of regulatory stuff, but just put that aside. And whether they want to become banks or not, put that aside, all of them, in my view, are going to embed payments in what they have. And they all compete with each other. They all do a little bit of social, a bit of ads, a little bit of commerce, a little bit of -- but they're all kind of want payments embedded. So when you go to YouTube or Facebook or Apple, you can buy something, click apply and it gets delivered and paid. And so you have to have wallets and things like that. And a lot of them, they have marketplaces in financial services.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
首先，这些公司各自也会遇到监管问题，但暂且撇开不谈。无论它们是否想成为银行，我认为它们都会把支付功能嵌入自身生态。它们彼此竞争，都做一点社交、广告、电商等，但共同点就是要集成支付。用户在 YouTube、Facebook 或 Apple 上购物，一键购买即可完成支付并安排配送，因此必须配备数字钱包等工具。其中很多公司已在金融服务领域搭建“市场平台”。
So think of Google Plex, it's a marketplace for financial services. They're also going to offer some what I call \[ financiers ] directly like financial planning. They don't need a bank to do that, but they can -- with open banking and all the stuff like that and partnering with whoever they partner with, they could say to the client, "We could do these things for you," and then you hook in your bank. And of course, you don't want your bank to become just a utility in the back end that no one knows about. And it's possible some of the new banks that they're actually going to open a bank on different things. They have -- some of them have huge advantages.
举例来说，Google Plex 就是金融服务的“集市”。他们还会直接提供我称之为“准金融”服务，例如财务规划；这无需银行牌照，但凭借开放银行体系及与合作伙伴的结合，他们可以对客户说：“这些我们都能帮你做。”然后再把你的银行账户接入。当然，你不希望银行沦为幕后无人知晓的“水电煤”管道。而且，部分新兴平台甚至可能直接申请银行牌照，它们在某些方面优势巨大。
And I pointed to that. I'm not saying it by way of complaining, no capital requirements, no liquidity requirements, no social requirements, no insurance requirements, no CCAR requirements, no resolution requirements. They don't have their litigation kind of obligation we have, and those are important. When we navigate this world, we've got to figure out how are you going to compete and deal with -- and like I said, those are some of the things that we deal with. We have strengths, size, scale, scope, brand. We bank 60 million, we've input it -- we have some business with 60 million, half the households in America. And so we -- let's use our strengths to build these things.
我提到这些并非抱怨，但事实是他们没有资本金、流动性、社区、保险、CCAR、破产清算等监管要求，也少了我们常见的诉讼责任。这些差异意义重大。身处此局，我们必须想清如何竞争和应对。我也说过，我们有自己的优势：规模、范围、品牌。我们服务 6,000 万客户，覆盖全美一半家庭。我们要利用自身长处来打造相应能力。
And so -- but they're all coming in one fashion or another, and some will probably succeed. And by -- if you don't believe me, you look at Ant Financial, even though I know they're going through some changes now, and some of these other companies around the world have done quite a good job disrupting major banks by using -- they have huge platforms and huge data. And that's a huge advantage. And so we have this huge data and not quite the platform, the 60 million, but they might have 200 million Americans booked in there. And they have other types of data. It's not clear to me our data is not more important than some of theirs. On the other hand, we have more restrictions on what we can do with it.
无论如何，这些玩家都会以某种形式入场，其中一些必将成功。若不信，看看蚂蚁金服——尽管它现在经历调整——以及全球其他公司如何凭借庞大平台和数据成功搅动大型银行。这是巨大优势。我们同样拥有海量数据，但平台规模不及他们——我们有 6,000 万客户，他们可能拥有 2 亿美国用户以及其他类型数据。我不认为我们的数据就不如他们重要，只是我们在数据使用上面临更多限制。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Right. What about DFI? Some people look at DFI and say, this is the next thing in finance generally. I mean it feels like it's a little bit of a small capital base right now, but given this unregulated credit model union, do you think that could be a competitive threat to you?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的，那去中心化金融（DFI）呢？有人认为 DFI 可能成为金融业的下一个热点。现在它的资本体量似乎还很小，但鉴于这是一种不受监管的信贷模式联盟，你觉得这会对你们构成竞争威胁吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes, a little bit. No, not -- I mean, remember, you got to do a lot of things to serve a client. So some of these will just cherry-pick something. And I remember years ago when that peer-to-peer lending came out, I told people, \[indiscernible] work for all bunch of different reasons. Some of these things will work somewhat. And remember, they're also going to change when interest rates go up. And customers like services like ATMs and branches and advice, somewhere to call and call centers and so. But I do think you should never look at something deep. I'm not talking about cryptocurrency. Now I'm talking about DFI \[writ] large.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
会有一点吧，但谈不上重大威胁。要真正服务客户，需要提供很多功能，而这些平台往往只挑其中一块来做。我记得多年前 P2P 借贷刚出来时就说过，出于种种原因，它们未必行得通。有些新模式会在某种程度上奏效，但利率上升时情况也会改变。客户仍然需要 ATM、网点、理财建议、呼叫中心等服务。所以不要轻易把某个新事物看得过深。我这里说的不是加密货币，而是广义上的 DFI。
Yes, they're trying to find ways to provide financial services purely digital, whether it's lending or deposits or loans or this in a way that makes sense for those customer base. And so we should never act like I don't think they're going to win, but I don't like saying that with my management team. I don't want to forecast that because I've already pointed out some of these people are really smart. And they may not look that way today, but they're looking later. The world is not static. We have to remember, they're not just sitting there waiting for JPMorgan. They're looking for all the ways they can do these things for clients.
他们确实在尝试以纯数字化方式提供金融服务，无论是贷款、存款还是其他业务，力求满足目标客户群需求。所以我们绝不能掉以轻心，也不会在管理层会议上说“他们赢不了”。我不想做那样的预测，因为我已经指出，这些玩家当中有很多非常聪明。他们今天也许看起来不起眼，但未来可能大不相同。世界并非静止，他们不会坐等摩根大通出手，而是在寻找一切可能的方式来服务客户。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So let's talk a little bit about what you are doing on payments. You have this global effort, I think it's called Liink, L-I-I-N-K. Could you give us a sense as to where -- what your vision is for that?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
那么谈谈你们在支付领域的举措吧。你们有一个全球项目，好像叫做 Liink，能否介绍一下你们的愿景？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes, that's public. I mean I've told that people here, we're going to be disclosing less to all of you going forward because I think we disclosed too much. But Liink is just a ledger. I think there's 450 banks hooked up into it, where we share data with banks in a real-time basis. So think of -- is the account real, did the money move? And then solve some of the problems that people have generally pointed out about, particularly in international transfers and international money.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
可以。这项目是公开的。我也告诉团队，未来我们会减少对外披露，因为现在透露得太多了。Liink 本质上是一个分布式账本，目前约有 450 家银行接入，大家可以实时共享数据。比如账户是否真实、资金是否到账等，从而解决外界普遍提到的一些痛点，尤其是在跨境汇款和国际资金流动方面。
So just think 1 day, Liink should be able to do trade finance much more seamlessly, very few hours, you know where exactly the money is, everyone in the chain knows. And you can do -- you could do inversely in real time. And eventually, by the way, there's no reason you can't move money through it, too. So it will become a real link. And this is not just JP, this's getting all the banking systems lined up for.
设想有一天，Liink 能让贸易融资变得极为顺畅，在数小时内即可确知资金所在，链条上的每一方都能实时了解。未来完全可以通过它直接划转资金，成为真正的“链接”。这不是摩根大通一家的事，而是要让整个银行体系协同起来。
So I can point out on payments that we moved \$8 trillion a day, quite effortlessly, quite cheaply, quite -- with huge risk and fraud stuff like that and 78% real-time, 95% same day. So what problem you're trying to solve? So there are problems if you're trying to move money to your sister in London, well, it's a pain. I understand that, you have TransferWise. They've done a great job. Again, it wasn't the technology, it was the imagination.
需要指出的是，我们每天处理 8 万亿美元的支付，效率高、成本低，且风险管理、反欺诈体系强大，其中特即日到账占 78%，同日到账占 95%。所以要解决的痛点是什么？比如给在伦敦的妹妹汇款确实麻烦，所以有 TransferWise，他们做得很棒。这再次证明关键不是技术，而是想象力。
And then there's, if you said moving money to Philippines, the same thing. If you said trade finance, absolutely, when you move things to multiple countries, you're paying for multiple invoice, if you missed the dot, one thing, that payment gets delayed, it takes a week to do the research on it. And so yes, there are clogs and restricts in the payment systems that we should do ourselves. And if we don't do it ourselves, someone else will do it.
把钱汇到菲律宾也是类似问题。贸易融资同样如此：多国、多张发票，只要漏掉一个小数点，款项就被延迟，调查要花上一周。这些都是支付系统中的阻塞与限制，需要由我们亲自来疏通；如果我们不做，就会被别人做。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Yes. Having lived in Japan for 8 years. I'm very familiar with that, but hopefully, you'll be able to solve those issues soon.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
是的。我曾在日本生活 8 年，对此深有体会，但希望你们能尽快解决这些问题。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
And there's another one. I was sitting in my own management table and Takis, I think would say that how hard was we came here to open a bank account because you have no credit history here. Well, okay, that's kind of a no-brainer to go fix because he had a credit history in where he was, and so there are a lot of things we could do better in America. And there is a tech company that does just that thing that came to see me years ago called \[ Neo ] or something like that. Yes.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
再举个例子。我在管理层会议上听到 Takis 说，他来美国后没有本地信用记录，开立银行账户十分困难。这显然是必须解决的问题——他在原居地明明已有信用历史。美国还有很多地方亟待改进。几年前就有一家名叫 Neo 的科技公司来找我，专门做这件事。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So we have some questions from the audience I want to dig into. One is on digital currencies. And the question here is you've got central bank digital currencies that are getting talked about. How can you leverage this? And are there any threats to what you're seeing in the ECB from this?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
我想转到观众提问环节。第一个问题关于数字货币。现在各界都在讨论央行数字货币（CBDC）。你们如何利用这一趋势？欧洲央行的相关动向会不会对你们构成威胁？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Look, it's a legitimate -- I mean, if I was a central bank, I'd be looking at this, but there's a lot of work that's going to take place. So if you have a digital wallet and you use -- I mean I think what like India doing is great for its own people, give people bank accounts they can make transfer payments without fraud and corruption, stuff like that, that makes sense. Can you do it wisely and cheaply, and stuff like that. If you give people a digital wallet and you \[indiscernible] money at JPMorgan or any bank or the Fed, the second there's a crisis, it's all going to go to the Fed.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
这是个正当话题——如果我是央行，也会关注。但要做的工作很多。例如，若让公众持有数字钱包——印度的做法就很不错，为民众提供账户，使其能安全转账、避免欺诈和腐败，这很有意义，但要看能否以明智且低成本的方式落实。假如大家的钱包资金既可以存在摩根大通，也可以存在任何银行或美联储，一旦发生危机，资金就会瞬间流向美联储。
限制资金在银行间的流动。
Well, then you're going to bankrupt the banking system and that should be making loans. If a government starts making loans, it's almost every case it's been -- it leads to various forms of corruption and stuff like that and the lack of discipline in the capital market.
那样会把本应放贷的银行体系抽干。如果政府直接放贷，几乎在所有案例中都会导致各种腐败，并削弱资本市场的纪律性。
So -- and then there are other things member banking isn't just a wallet. It's also ATMs. It's financial planning. So when you call for advice, gain a small business advice, it's investments, it's -- so they can do pieces of it. They should look at it. But I think the right way is to really do a deep dive and study it. And then there are going to be legislation issues like do you want the federal government to know everything you do. So China, they're going to do that. Would the American publicly put up with that? I doubt it.
此外，银行服务不只是钱包，还有 ATM、理财规划、小企业咨询、投资等多种功能。央行数字货币也许能覆盖部分环节，但应深入研究后再行动。还涉及立法难题——公众是否愿意让联邦政府掌握自己的一切交易？中国也许会这么做，但我怀疑美国公众能否接受。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
There was a question that came in. I'm going to read it, okay? Is there any level of deposit inflow or lower credit card balances that would encourage you to take more duration risk if the credit risk is not available? Or is it really more a function of absolute yields? I know we discussed this at the beginning of the session, but I had a question come in.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
另一位听众提问：如果信贷需求不足，是否有某个存款流入或信用卡余额下降的阈值，会促使你们加大久期风险敞口？还是说主要取决于绝对收益率？我们开场时谈过，但仍有人提出这个问题。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
That decision you make every day, right? And you always -- if you could always take -- you could always buy treasury. So I could buy 10-year treasury right now at 1.5% instead of making 20 basis points whenever we make an IOER, move it out there, extend duration. We can do it with 1 phone call. My CFO is sitting over here, he can do it. He can do the same thing and buy mortgages considerably over that, which doesn't have much credit risk. I mean we'd rather make loans. We rather serve our clients than make huge investment portfolios. But we have a lot of cash and capability, and we're going to be very patient. And we're being patient because I think you have a very good chance of inflation will be more than transitory.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
这类决策我们每天都在做。理论上随时可以买美债——比如现在买 10 年期国债，收益率 1.5%，而持有超额准备金只赚 20 个基点，拉长久期只需打个电话就能操作。我身边的 CFO 随时可以下单，同样也能买信用风险极低、收益更高的抵押贷款债券。但我们更愿意放贷、服务客户，而不是大幅增加投资组合。不过我们手握大量现金和能力，会保持耐心，因为我认为通胀很可能不只是暂时现象。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Got it. Okay. Just keying in on the loan piece of what you were saying, the loan-to-deposit ratios, you're sitting at 50-year lows, obviously, because of QE and the demand for lending hasn't started to pick up that much yet, at least from what I see. But what do you see? Are you seeing any signs of life in the loan book?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
明白了。好的，聚焦到你刚才提到的贷款部分，贷款 / 存款比目前处于 50 年来的低点，显然这与量化宽松有关，而且从我的观察来看，信贷需求尚未明显回升。但你们的情况如何？在贷款账本上有没有任何复苏迹象？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Just not, but just a teeny weeny little bit in CRE, commercial multifamily, maybe C&I. Middle market utilization is lower than we've ever seen it ever, ever. But that will change the second they start investing inventory receivables and slightly more [pleasant]. Maybe a little bit. Not on the mortgage side, not on the credit card side, though. I think you're going to see it eventually. And I don't know exactly the time it is, but I think you have a booming economy.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
几乎没有，但在商业地产、商用多户住宅，或许还有企业信贷上有一点点苗头。中端市场的授信使用率处于我们有史以来的最低水平。但一旦企业开始投入库存、应收款并略微扩大经营，这种情况就会改变，或许会稍有起色。抵押贷款和信用卡端则没有。我认为最终还是会回来的。我不知道确切时间，但我认为经济正蓄势腾飞。
And I think the table has been set for that booming economy. I think some of the fiscal pause is on autopilot. So as I think of [indiscernible] not only do we pull out of fuel on the fire, but we're guaranteed to put more fuel to fire in the first quarter next year, the second quarter next year, the third quarter next year. And then QE is partially on autopilot, through the Fed may very well change that at their meetings this week and stuff like that, so we'll see.
而且我认为繁荣的条件已经摆在桌面上。部分财政刺激处于自动推进状态。换句话说，不只是“撤走了浇灭火焰的水”，还保证明年第一、二、三季度继续往火上添油。量化宽松也在部分自动运行，不过美联储本周开会可能做出调整，我们拭目以待。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
What's your outlook for QE?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
你对量化宽松有何展望？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
But the other thing is about loans, I've always pointed out, the loan banks generally that I'm going to simplify, used to have deposits and lend down 100% and hold cash liquidity above that in securities roughly.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
关于贷款，我一直强调，以前的银行模式简单说就是：存款全部拿去放贷，外加以证券形式持有一定流动性现金。
Today, they -- but because of LCR, and SLR and stuff like that, the banks will never again be able to lend out 100% of deposits. It will always be, I don't know, 75% of deposits. Right now, for JP, it's more like 44% or something like that, which is unbelievably low. And that's because the rules change. So the transmission monitoring policy is different. It's not just QE. So the way you should look at our -- we have -- I forgot the exact number, but 4 5 [indiscernible] more cash than we need for LCR. That wasn't true a year -- I don't think they were to a year ago. And that's right, we don't -- I mean if we could, I turn away a lot of these deposits, we don't really want them. But we want to be customer-friendly.
如今由于流动性覆盖率（LCR）和补充杠杆率（SLR）等监管要求，银行再也无法把 100% 存款拿去放贷，顶多 75%。目前摩根大通只能贷出大约 44%，低得惊人，原因正是规则变化。因此货币政策的传导机制已不同，不仅仅是量化宽松。我们现在持有的现金比满足 LCR 要求的水平多出大约 4 至 5 [倍/单位]——具体数字我忘了——但一年前并非如此。说实话，如果可以，我宁愿拒收部分存款，我们并不真的需要它们，但为了客户友好，我们还是接收。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Yes. So shareholders here are sitting looking at that, saying, okay, the optionality is to reinvest in securities while you wait for loan growth to come back. And your point is I need to have a better rate structure that reflects the inflation that I think is going to be coming.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
明白。因此股东们会认为：既然贷款增长尚未恢复，不如把钱再投资到证券。你的观点却是，需要等待更好的利率结构，以应对你预期将到来的通胀。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. We always -- we run the business to serve the clients and a lot of these other things, outcomes. But the interest rate exposure to the firm, we also always look at to protect the fat tails. And that's a very different view, and we're going to protect the fat tail that JPMorgan will be a port of safety in the storm, period. Whatever storm that is, and we could predict some. We do tons of stress tests and all that, far beyond just a CCAR test. And so -- but 1 of the potential ones now is [indiscernible] rising rates, inflation is kind of raising more than the Fed is comfortable with.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。我们经营的核心始终是服务客户，其他结果只是派生。但我们也时刻关注公司的利率敞口，以防极端尾部风险。这是一种截然不同的视角，我们要确保摩根大通在任何风暴中都能成为安全港。不管是什么风暴，我们会做预测，进行大量压力测试，远不止 CCAR。眼下潜在风险之一就是利率上升、通胀超出美联储舒适区。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And you're really looking at the economic profile of JPM when you say that because I would expect you have room in your held-to-maturity balances that you could ask or you \[indiscernible]
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
因此，当你这么说时，其实是在考量摩根大通整体的经济状况。我原本预计你们在持有至到期投资余额中还有空间，可以动用，或者你们已经在做相关操作。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
We've moved more stuff into held to maturity, too, to reduce the volatility of SCB and all that. Again, which I hate because we will always look at that as -- it doesn't mean that. It's like accounting. It doesn't really mean anything and it actually takes away some of your flexibility. How could that be good for a company? But it makes SCB less and why would you all permanent capital for swings in AOCI that mean absolutely nothing. So we're doing more. I probably should have done it earlier.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
我们确实把更多资产转进了“持有至到期”分类，以降低补充资本缓冲（SCB）等指标的波动。我其实并不喜欢这么做——这更像是一种会计处理，本身意义不大，反而削弱了灵活性，这对公司怎么会是好事？但它能压低 SCB；毕竟，为了其他综合收益（AOCI）的波动而长期占用资本毫无意义。所以我们会继续这么做，可能本来应该更早行动。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. A couple of other questions. Just one on credit card. You mentioned it's still -- it doesn't look like there's a lot of demand yet. But one of the things, I think, that you are looking at is providing credit cards to people who maybe or don't have as much on credit scores, right? There's some new kind of underwriting that you can do using nontraditional data to underwrite card. Could you give us a sense of what's going on there?
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的，还有几个问题。先谈信用卡。你刚才说目前需求似乎不算强劲。但据我所知，你们正在考虑向信用评分不足的人群发卡，对吗？如今可以用非传统数据做新的风控模型来审批信用卡。能否介绍一下你们在这方面的进展？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. So well, first of all, card spend is \[indiscernible] terms like 20% over 2019, and we see it everywhere. And spend ultimately to drive the thing, but the outstandings. But the outstanding is the consumer today has \$2 trillion more in their checking accounts than they had in February of 2019. That's a huge number. That's why I'm saying the table is set for a really strong economy. And that spend number will eventually drive the outstanding.
James Dimon 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。首先，信用卡消费额已较 2019 年高出约 20%，几乎各领域都有所体现。消费最终会带动应收余额。不过目前消费者的支票账户比 2019 年 2 月多出 2 万亿美元，这个数字巨大。这也是我为什么说经济已蓄势待发；消费增长最终会推高未偿余额。
That's why I think there's a pretty good chance to go up soon as people start to spend and do other things and stuff like that. So -- but I think all I'm going to tell you about credit is we always look for additional data, and we don't use just credit scores to do credit. And that could be true for bank accounts for that reach product and or Bank One or \[Bank On], whatever they call it. And so -- yes, and then -- so for credit card, too, we're going to do that.
因此，一旦人们开始进一步消费，应收余额很可能迅速增长。关于风控，我想说的是，我们始终在寻找额外数据，不仅仅依赖信用评分。这对“平价账户”或 Bank On 等普惠产品同样适用；在信用卡领域我们也会采用这种做法。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. Turning to capital and capital optimization, what's better for JPM, continuing to grow share and end up with a higher capital requirement or maxing out the buybacks? And people know that you've gone up basically 2 buckets in SIFI. And the question here is really, are you going to try to get back down to that just 1 bucket higher? Or do you care? You're like, hey, if I'm 2 buckets up, I'm 2 buckets up, let's just get the revenue.
Betsy Graseck 摩根士丹利
好的，谈谈资本及其优化。对摩根大通而言，是继续扩大市场份额、接受更高资本要求更好，还是尽可能回购股票更好？大家知道你们的系统重要性附加（SIFI）已提高两个档位。问题是，你们会尝试降回只高一个档位吗？还是说无所谓，升两档就升两档，重点是把收入做大？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I've always thought that G-SIFI is the stupidest, most irresponsible calculation I've ever seen in my whole life. It is not risk-based. It doesn't have anything to do with anything. I think it was designed for -- I don't even know what it was designed for. And we have so much capital that you can't possibly say that we need more capital to handle risk or something like that. And G-SIFI was supposed to be adjusted for the size of the banking system, the size of the global economy and none that ever took place, and we're still finishing Basel III from 10 years ago.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我一直认为 G-SIFI 是我这辈子见过最愚蠢、最不负责任的计算方式。它不是基于风险的，跟任何实质都无关。我甚至不知道它最初是为谁、为了什么设计的。我们资本如此充足，没人能说我们还需要更多资本来应对风险。G-SIFI 本应随银行体系规模、全球经济规模进行调整，但从未真正调过；而我们至今仍在收尾十年前的巴塞尔 III。
So my view is I'm not going to -- I want to get back to the fore. We have time to do it. We can find a lot of ways which are stupid ways to get some part of our balance sheet or do a bunch of stuff. And -- but I'd like to see them, what are they going to do with SLR, G-SIFI, Basel III, kind of finish the package, SCB? When we see all of that, we'll be a little more direct than how we want to handle this.
所以我的想法是：我想把 G-SIFI 档位降回去，我们有时间来做。我们可以用很多「愚蠢的方法」去调整资产负债表或做一堆操作。不过我想先看看他们要怎么处理 SLR、G-SIFI、巴塞尔 III、SCB 这一揽子问题；等全部尘埃落定，我们再更明确地决定应对方案。
But right now, I always -- the first prism we always look at the business through is do the right thing for the client. I'd rather -- so if someone says, what would it do if you have to go with 1 bucket? Well, if I have to add 5% to capital, it's to reduce my ROE by 5%. What's the mystery of that? Why -- to me, okay, well, I don't want to go from 17% to 16%, but I'd rather go from 17% to 16% than lose my share market or lose the client. So yes, it's a terrible place to be in. That's what it is. We'll deal with it, and we're going to seek out a million ways to reduce it.
但当下，我们始终以「对客户做正确的事」作为经营的第一视角。有人问，如果必须再升一档怎么办？如果要多加 5% 资本，那就是把 ROE 降 5%，这有何神秘？我当然不愿意 ROE 从 17% 掉到 16%，但我宁可接受 17% 变 16%，也不要丢掉市场份额或客户。这确实很糟糕，但事实如此；我们会应对，并会想出无数方法把它降下来。
A guy could seek out ways to get paid more on debit cards by outsourcing my debit card. I'm thinking about that. Of course, I don't think that would ever work in our position. But I just think those things are just unfair, and I want to find ways around them.
比如，有人提议通过把借记卡业务外包来多赚手续费，我也考虑过。当然，在我们的定位下那大概行不通。但我就是觉得这些规则不公平，我要想办法绕过去。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Do you think they're going to do any changes, make any changes to those capital ratios? I mean, \[indiscernible], is that \[indiscernible]?
摩根士丹利 贝齐·格拉塞克
你认为他们会对那些资本比率做出任何调整吗？我的意思是……（听不清）那是不是……（听不清）？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
That's the one thing we should do is crowdsource, people helping reduce our G-SIFI. So anyone out there from fintech or the other world of shadow banks, look at us and anything you can do help me reduce the G-SIFI. Remember, we will pay to reduce it because it's very expensive capital. So we'll share that with you. And what was your last question?
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我们真正该做的一件事就是众包——让大家帮我们降低 G-SIFI 分数。任何来自金融科技或影子银行领域的人，都请关注我们，凡是能帮我降低 G-SIFI 的办法都欢迎提出。记住，我们愿意付费来降低它，因为这代表着极昂贵的资本，我们会拿出收益与你们分享。你刚才的最后一个问题是什么？
美国政府的管理金融企业不满意，科技企业也不满意。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Okay. We have 2 last questions. One is on climate. There's a question from the audience here, just asking, can you discuss your opportunities to impact climate given your position in the industry?
摩根士丹利 贝齐·格拉塞克
好的，还剩两个问题。第一个关于气候。观众提问：鉴于你们在行业中的地位，能否谈谈你们有何机会在气候问题上发挥影响？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. I think we've been trying to be really diligent and mature and thoughtful about reducing carbon intensity. We've spoken with auto companies, utilities. We're not doing this on our own. The car companies, how they plan to help, we want to help their transition. It's got to be done that way. My view is we do it right as a country, very thoughtful by industry. We can actually get CO2 way down at very little cost to the economy. If we do it badly, and I'm thinking that just banks from a policy, we won't get it down, and it will really hurt the economy.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
可以。我们一直在以审慎、成熟且深思熟虑的方式降低碳强度。我们已与汽车公司、公用事业公司交流；这不是我们单独行动，而是协助车企实现转型，必须以这种方式推进。在我看来，只要全国上下按行业周密推进，就能以极低的经济成本显著降低二氧化碳排放；若做得不好——尤其仅靠银行业政策去做——则既降不下碳，还会严重伤害经济。
And I remind people, it's not a banking issue. You've already seen a lot of companies sell their dirty oil and gas assets or coal assets to nonpublic companies, now there's no transparency on anything about it, so they're going to make a lot of money in those investments. It's not about what banks do. It's about what the economy does public policy and one day, if the American public doesn't have the courage to talk about a carbon tax, we're never going to really do a great job fixing this problem.
我提醒大家，这不是银行业自身的问题。你们已经看到许多企业把高污染的油气或煤炭资产卖给非上市公司，结果完全失去透明度，他们反而能从这些投资中大赚一笔。关键不在银行做什么，而在于整个经济的公共政策；如果美国公众迟迟没有勇气讨论碳税，我们就永远无法真正解决这一难题。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
So last question here is that you have created a formidable powerhouse in JPMorgan Chase since you took over 15 years ago. Wanted to just understand how you're thinking about the transitioning to the next generation. You did recently announce the reshuffle of your senior ranks and wanted to get how you're thinking about succession here.
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
最后一个问题：自15年前你接任以来，你已将摩根大通打造成一股强大的力量。我想了解你如何考虑向下一代交棒。你最近宣布了高层人事调整，能否谈谈你对接班问题的想法？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Yes. I think we're very -- first of all, very -- I mean, you know Jen Piepszak, Marianne Lake, 2 just exceptional executives -- happen to be women. And -- but I think we have a great bench. I have Daniel Pinto is exceptional. Gordon has been one of the best partners you could ever imagine. So I'm going to miss Gordon, but sincerely wishing him the best. He's going to stay associated with us. But there are a lot of very good people here. And I intend to stay, which is sanctioned by the Board for a significant amount of time. I think you put in your report several years, significant means more than that. And one of the director specifically made that point.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。我认为我们拥有——首先，你们都认识的 Jen Piepszak 和 Marianne Lake，两位极为出色的高管——恰好都是女性。但我们的人才储备远不止如此。Daniel Pinto 同样卓越，Gordon 也是你能想象到的最佳合作伙伴之一。我会想念 Gordon，并真诚祝福他；他仍会与我们保持联系。公司里还有很多优秀的人才。董事会已经批准，我计划继续留任相当长的一段时间。你在报告里写了“几年”，但董事会的一位成员特别指出，“相当长”意味着超过那个数字。
And then we have a lot of people to choose from. Remember, they have a hit by the bus plan. And then obviously, and we meet -- every time we talk about all these folks, and it may very well be a woman. But I just want to tell people, it will not be a woman because it's a woman. It will be the person who's the best suited for the job regardless of race, sex, degree or sexual orientation.
此外，我们有很多可供选择的人选。别忘了，我们有“被公交车撞”紧急预案。我们每次都会讨论这些候选人，最终接班人很可能是位女性。但我想强调，选她绝不是因为性别，而是因为她最适合这份工作——无关种族、性别、学历或性取向。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
And significant means 5 years?
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
“相当长”是指 5 年吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
The Board said significant. You got to ask them what they meant by it, but they didn't want to seem like it's imminent, like 2 or 3 years. So -- and I love what I do, and I'm perfectly going to stay here for 5 years. And I'll also go when the time comes. And this is the -- obviously, Daniel can run the company. He's fairly close in age to me. But after that, when that time comes for the right person, I should leave and let them do the job. Or if I can't -- energy for it anymore, I'm going to leave, so.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
董事会的说法是“相当长”。你得去问他们具体含义，但他们的意思肯定不是两三年之内。我热爱我的工作，完全愿意再干 5 年；时机到了我也会离开。显然，Daniel 能够执掌公司，他的年龄与我接近。但在那之后，当合适的人选出现时，我就该离开，让他们施展才华；或者有一天我精力不够了，我也会退下。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
Well, you seem to have enough energy right now.
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
看起来你现在精力还很旺盛。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Still piss and vinegar, yes.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
没错，我仍旧斗志昂扬。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
All right. Well, Jamie, thank you so much for joining us this morning. Really a great pleasure to have you here at our Morgan Stanley conference. So thanks very much.
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
好的，Jamie，非常感谢你今天上午的出席。能在摩根士丹利会议上邀请到你，真是我们的荣幸，非常感谢。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Betsy, thank you.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
谢谢你，Betsy。
Betsy Graseck Morgan Stanley
All right. Take care. Well, now, we'll move on to the next session.
摩根士丹利 Betsy Graseck
好的，再见。我们现在进入下一环节。
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