2022-06-01 James Dimon.Bernstein 38th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

All right. Great. Thanks, everybody, for joining. We're really happy to have JPMorgan Chase's Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon, return again to the conference. Jamie, thanks so much for joining us today.

好的。非常好。感谢各位的参与。我们很高兴再次邀请到摩根大通董事长兼首席执行官杰米·戴蒙出席本次会议。杰米，非常感谢你今天的到来。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Thrilled to be here. Thank you.

能来到这里我感到非常激动。谢谢。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

So you hosted an Investor Day last week for your investors and analysts, a lot of generalists in the audience today probably didn't get a chance to listen in. Maybe you could take a few minutes to summarize the key takeaways that you and your team wanted to convey at your Investor Day last week?

上周你们为投资者和分析师举办了一场投资者日，今天在场的很多通才型听众可能没有机会收听。能否请你花几分钟，总结一下你和团队希望在上周投资者日上传达的关键要点？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Yes. So we did have an Investor Day. It was long. It went from like 8:00 to 3:00. All the major executives made presentation, including one on tech, one in CCB, CIB, asset wealth management, payments, markets, et cetera. And the point was is that we really haven't spoken to investors in detail for 2 years. So some had complained that we're spending a lot of money, a lot of issues out there. We've done a bunch of acquisitions, and they were right. So we took the time to explain it in detail about why we're spending \$6 billion more in 2022 versus 2021, how we look at investments. And there was a lot of detail on that, like how we look at application investments, how we look at acquisition investments, how we look at new branches and bankers and hardware and software and modernization, all that. And so you got to go through the detail, but that's how you have to run a business is at a very detailed level.

是的，我们确实举办了投资者日。时间很长，大约从早上8点到下午3点。所有主要高管都进行了演示，包括科技、消费与社区银行（CCB）、企业与投资银行（CIB）、资产与财富管理、支付、市场等部门。重点在于我们已经有两年没有与投资者进行详细沟通。一些人抱怨我们花钱太多、问题不少，也做了不少收购，他们的批评也是对的。因此我们花时间详细解释为什么2022年的支出比2021年多出60亿美元，以及我们如何看待投资。其中包含大量细节，比如我们如何看待应用投资、并购投资、新建网点和增聘银行家、硬件软件以及现代化投入等等。经营企业必须深入细节，这正是我们行事的方式。

We gave some updates on things which don't surprise people very much on NII for this year and kind of a first view about kind of a benchmark for maybe next year. And we obviously spoke about the economy and stuff like that. I think it's a great chance for you all to see our senior management team in person, answering questions up on stage, explaining their business, why they're doing what they're doing. A couple of things are different. A couple of things are not completely normal. And we didn't describe everything. I think sometimes we describe too much and give away too many things that help investors.

我们还更新了一些情况，其中最不让人意外的是今年的净利息收入（NII），并首次给出了对明年可能的基准预期。我们当然也谈到了经济状况等主题。我认为这是一个让各位亲自见到我们高管团队的绝佳机会，他们在台上回答问题，解释自己的业务以及为何要这样做。有些事情确实不同，有些事情并不完全正常，而且我们并未事无巨细全部披露。我认为有时我们讲得太多，向投资者透露了过多有利信息。

And after I went to Fidelity and Wellington. I went up to Boston, did kind of a Boston tour and a couple of people were asking some really great questions, which are exactly the ones we didn't want to answer, and because we're not going to. But there's other great stuff we're doing. We're quite comfortable with the company, and we're quite comfortable with how we make these investments and such so.

之后我去了富达和惠灵顿。我去了波士顿，进行了一次波士顿之行，有些人提出了非常好的问题，恰好是我们不想回答的问题，所以我们确实没有回答。但我们还在做其他许多出色的事情。我们对公司感到非常放心，也对我们的投资决策方式非常安心。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Yes. I mean traditionally, JPMorgan has been a stock for all seasons. It's done well in good markets and tough markets, and particularly in down markets have been defensive. Do you think the characteristics of what's built the company historically, the balance sheet and the diversity are still true today and could make it perform well in a tough day?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

是的。历来，摩根大通一直是一只“四季皆宜”的股票：在市场繁荣时表现优异，在艰难市况中亦能防守有余，尤其在下行市场中更显防御性。您认为，历史上造就公司实力的那些特质——稳健的资产负债表以及业务多元化——如今依旧存在，并足以让公司在艰难时期同样表现出色吗？

多元化更难做出差异化的商业模式。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Totally. I mean what protects the company in a downturn is virtually you're prepared. We always talk about through the cycle. So we acknowledge when we're overearning on credit and that that's going to normalize. We're quite clear about that, and that might be \$3 billion of charge-offs more a year. And we have to prepare for things like CECL and AOCI and downturns and all that. But your best preparation is that fortress balance sheet. It's conservative accounting. We don't have a lot of -- not a lot. We have almost no onetime gains or losses. Our MSR -- even if you look at like MSR, that's conservative, too, because there's very little FHA service in there.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

当然。我是说，在经济下行期间，真正保护公司的几乎就是你的预备程度。我们总是谈论“穿越周期”。因此，当我们的信贷收益过高、未来将回归正常时，我们会予以承认。我们对此十分清楚，这可能意味着每年多出30亿美元的冲销。我们必须为CECL、AOCI以及经济衰退等情况做好准备。但最好的准备就是那张“堡垒”资产负债表，外加保守的会计处理。我们几乎没有一次性收益或损失。即便是MSR，我们也十分保守，因为其中几乎没有FHA服务权。

When things go bad, FHA servicing is very expensive when the delinquencies hit 5% or 10%, which is guaranteed to happen in the downturn. And it's changed, look at our real estate portfolio, mostly the ones you worry about are mostly Class A., fully leased up, no spec, all these various things, which is hard to look at, but that protects you and those margins, when things get bad, we'll still have margins, still be making money. And the reason we want to do that is we can serve clients in the toughest of times.

当情况恶化，违约率达到5%或10%（衰退期几乎必然出现）时，FHA服务成本极其高昂。我们的资产组合已不同：你担心的那些资产大多是A级、满租、无投机的项目，种种条件看上去很难做到，但正是它们为你提供保护。即便在形势艰难时，我们仍将保持利润率，继续赚钱。我们这样做的原因是，为了能在最艰难的时期服务客户。

And we have plenty of capital to play a balance sheet. There's a lot of capital uncertainty because we still don't know SCB. We don't know if there will be any adjustments of G-SIFI, which we're not counting on. We did some acquisitions, which took away from some buyback capability. So I much prefer to do really smart acquisitions and stock buyback. You may not like that so much sometimes because you want consistency and all that. But -- so yes, we'll be a fortress balance sheet in the next go around, too. And we're quite concerned about the environment.

我们拥有充足的资本来运作资产负债表。但资本方面仍有很多不确定性，因为我们尚未获知SCB，也不知道G-SIFI是否会调整——我们并未对此抱有期待。我们进行了一些收购，这削弱了股票回购能力。因此，我更倾向于进行真正明智的收购和股票回购。有时你们可能不太喜欢，因为你们更希望保持一致性等等。但——是的，下一个周期我们依旧会保持“堡垒”般的资产负债表，而且我们对外部环境相当担忧。

So I try to separate for the analyst community what -- right now, if you have a benign environment, like you all have forecast, what's in your forecast. What's your forecast as a benign environment? I don't know what it's going to be like by the end of the year. I'm prepared for a non-benign environment by the end of the year. So to me, it's -- we try to explain all that as best we can, and I think it's important we do that. But we'll be prepared for bad outcomes.

因此我试图为分析师群体划清界线——如果现在处于你们所预测的温和环境，那么你们对温和环境的假设是什么？我不知道今年年底会怎样。我已经为年底出现非温和环境做好了准备。对我而言，我们会尽力解释一切，我认为这很重要。但我们也会为不利结果做好万全准备。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

And on that front, what degree of difficulty do you attach to the task at hand in front of the Fed right now? And you mentioned storm clouds.

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

在这方面，您认为美联储当前面临的任务难度有多大？您还提到了“乌云”。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I'm going to change the storm cloud because I said there are 3 things that we're going through, which are -- I hate the word unprecedented, but you're kind of unprecedented. And you got to put this in back of your mind when you haven't -- when you've seen things that have never happened before, then you have to question your ability to predict, okay? One is huge growth in this country, driven by fiscal and monetary stimulation. That isn't a normal recovery, okay? And that fiscal stimulation is still in the pocket books of consumers. They're spending it. They're spending at very strong levels.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

我要把“乌云”换个说法，因为我提到我们正经历三件事——我不喜欢用“史无前例”这个词，但它们的确前所未见。当你遇到从未发生过的情形时，就必须重新审视自己的预测能力。第一件事是美国出现了由财政和货币刺激推动的巨大增长，这并非正常复苏。财政刺激仍在消费者口袋里，他们正花得很凶，非常强劲地消费。

And the data is completely distorted. Distorted by inflation, distorted by -- they went from goods back to services. It's distorted by all the things, but jobs are plentiful, wages are going up, consumers are spending, the lower income folks, not quite as much as before, but everybody else, it looks like they have \$2 trillion more savings rate drop. I don't think that's going to stop the spending in 6 or 9 months. And so that to me is the bright clouds out there.

而且相关数据被彻底扭曲了：受通胀影响，被商品向服务的消费转移影响，被各种因素共同扭曲。但就业充裕、工资上涨、消费者在花钱；低收入群体消费不及从前，但其他人看起来因储蓄率下降而多出了约2万亿美元。我不认为这股消费势头会在六到九个月内停止——这在我看来反倒是一片“亮云”。

But it's different, the Fed has to meet this now with raising rates in QT. And the new part of this isn't the raising rates, it's the QT. The QT has -- we've never had QE before like this. Therefore, we've never had QT like this. So you're looking at something they're going to be writing history books on for 50 years.

不过情况不同，美联储现在要以加息和缩表来应对。真正新的并非加息，而是缩表。我们从未经历过如此规模的量化宽松（QE），自然也未经历过如此规模的量化紧缩（QT）。未来五十年，人们都会为此写进历史书。

What was QE, what worked, what didn't work. I think a lot of parts of QE backfired. I think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of different reasons I won't bore you with now, but they have to raise rates. It might be they have to do QT. They do not have a choice because there's so much liquidity in the system, they have to remove some of the liquidity to stop the speculation, to reduce home prices, stuff like that. And you've never been through QT.

QE究竟是什么，哪些奏效、哪些失败？我认为QE的很多做法适得其反，负利率更可能是一项巨大的错误，理由很多此处不赘述。但他们必须加息，也可能必须缩表，因为体系里流动性过剩；必须抽走部分流动性以遏制投机、压低房价等等。而你们从未经历过QT。

So all the major -- if you go back to 2010 and say, who are all the major buyers of treasuries, all that time, it was central banks, foreign exchange managers, banks who are topping up their liquidity profiles because we had to for regulations, all 3, it won't happen in the go around. Banks are topped up. Foreign exchange matters have topped up. The Central Bank would be selling, not buying, and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance. That's a huge change in the flow of funds around the world. I don't know what the effect of that is. I'm prepared for -- you talked about minimum huge volatility.

再回顾2010年以来，谁是国债的主要买家？那时是央行、外汇管理机构，以及因监管要求而补充流动性的商业银行。如今这三类买家都不会再出现：银行流动性已足；外汇管理机构也已足；而央行将是卖家而非买家；各国政府又要为更大的财政赤字融资。这对全球资金流向是巨变，其影响未知。我已做好准备，至少会出现巨大波动。

And the third thing is Ukraine that you've not had a European land war since 1945, okay? And you -- and the complexity of Ukraine is we don't know the outcome. I always make a list, you predict the outcome. Well, you couldn't predict the outcome of Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq, 10 other configurations, all wrong. Wars go bad, they go south, they have unintended consequences. And this happens to be \[ ruining ] the commodity markets of the world, wheat, oil, gas and stuff like that, which, in my view, will continue. We're not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from what's going to happen in oil in the short run. And we're not taking the proper actions to protect you all or cap the oil in the next 5 years, which means it almost has to go up the price.

第三件事是乌克兰：自1945年以来欧洲没有爆发过陆战。乌克兰局势的复杂在于结局未知。我总列清单让人预测战争结果——越南、朝鲜、阿富汗、伊拉克等十多个案例全部预测错。战争会失控、南辕北辙、带来意想不到的后果。这场冲突正扰乱全球大宗商品市场——小麦、石油、天然气等，我认为还会持续。我们没有采取适当行动来保护欧洲免受短期油价冲击，也未采取适当措施来保护各位或抑制未来五年油价，这几乎注定油价必须上行。

We're not investing enough money to keep oil number. And for all those who love climate change, if oil prices go to \$1.75 or \$1.50, which I kind of think is in the cards to tell you the truth, not in the immediate run, but down the road, then CO2 won't go down, which is everyone predicts because people buy less oil and gas, it's going to go up because all those other countries out there, the poor countries who need oil and gas to feed and heat their citizens will turn off -- will not buy oil and gas, they'll buy coal. That's what's going to happen. CO2 will go up. It won't come down.

我们在石油勘探开发上的投资不足。对于所有热衷气候议题的人来说，若油价最终升至175或150美元（我确实认为未来有可能，不是立即），二氧化碳排放不会下降——大家预测会因少用油气而下降，结果却会上升，因为那些需要油气来养活和供暖的贫穷国家买不起油气，会转而烧煤。最终CO₂会上升，不会下降。

2022-03-01，BRK开始买入OXY。

And we're not dealing with these challenges. So those 3 things fiscally induced growth, QT, Ukraine war. So I'm going to change the storm clouds out there because -- look, I'm an optimist. I said they're storm clouds, they're big storm clouds. It's a hurricane. Right now, it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this. That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way. We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy or -- yes, Sandy or Andrew or something like that. And you got to brace yourself. So JPMorgan is bracing ourselves, and we're going to be very conservative in our balance sheet on -- with all this capital uncertainty, we're going to have to take actions, and I kind of want to shed nonoperating deposits again, which we can do in size to protect ourselves, so we could serve clients in bad times. And so that's the environment we're dealing with. And I'm -- I think it's okay to hope that we'll end up okay. I hope it. That's my Goldilocks, I hope. Who the hell knows?

而我们并未妥善应对这些挑战——财政刺激式增长、QT、乌克兰战争这三朵“乌云”。因此我要把“乌云”改称“飓风”。眼下阳光明媚，一切看似正常，大家都认为美联储能搞定。但那场飓风就在前方，正朝我们袭来；我们不知道它是小型风暴，还是“桑迪”、甚至“安德鲁”等超级风暴。你必须做好准备。摩根大通正在做准备，我们将对资产负债表保持极度保守。在资本不确定性如此之高的情况下，我们必须采取行动，我甚至想再次大量削减非经营性存款以保护自己，从而在艰难时期仍能服务客户。这就是我们身处的环境。我觉得怀抱希望没错——希望一切最终会好。这就是我的“金发姑娘”剧本，但谁知道呢？

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

What do you think it means for the potential credit cycle that might ensue and the preparedness of the banking industry?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

您认为这对未来可能出现的信贷周期及银行业的应对准备意味着什么？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

The banking industry is in great shape and credit cycles follow a norm, okay? And even in the great financial recession, it followed a norm with a couple of little exceptions. Mortgages, there was \$1 trillion actually to be lost. We all woke up sometime in '08 or '09 said, my God, it's \$1 trillion. And it was everywhere. It was in derivatives. It was in CLOs. It was in banks. It was in insurance companies. It was -- but that caused panic because people woke up, investors. And they said, my God, it's everywhere. What do you do? You sell. So it's panic selling and stuff like that.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

银行业状况良好，信贷周期总体遵循规律。即便在金融危机最严重的时候，也基本遵循规律，只是出现过个别例外。当年按揭贷款最终损失达到1万亿美元。我们在 2008、2009 年某个时刻醒悟过来：天哪，损失是 1 万亿，而且无处不在——衍生品、CLO、银行、保险公司都受波及。这种遍布各处的风险引发了恐慌，投资者惊呼“到处都是问题”，于是开始恐慌性抛售。

And I think you may see that again, by the way, too, because I don't think the bank intermediate in the markets that we're used to. So when all this liquidity gets run down, we're going to hit a wall. And then when that wall gets hit in terms of intermediation, you're going to see very volatile markets again. And no one's going to be able to step in other than the Fed, which maybe they can't do this time. So -- but the credit cycle follows a norm normally. And that's the minimum we should expect. And we've shown people, credit card, it's all-time lows today, but in the Great Recession, it peaked at 10%. We would have told you before that 8%, often not that much.

顺便说一句，这样的情况可能再次出现，因为银行在市场中的“中介”角色已大不如前。当系统流动性被耗尽时，我们会撞上墙；一旦撞墙、市场失去中介功能，波动性将再度飙升。届时除了美联储，恐怕没人能进场救火——而这一次他们未必能出手。不过，信贷周期通常还是按规律运行，这是我们起码应有的预期。以信用卡为例，目前坏账率处于历史低位，但在金融危机中曾高达 10%，我们当时预测 8%，已算保守。

很容易把银行的净资产搞没了。

What surprises people is it won't be mortgage this time. It won't be -- we don't see it there. It might be something in the private credit markets, \[indiscernible] I mean, when things happen, it will -- someone will get hurt somewhere. And sometimes it's industries you just least expect.

这一次让人意外的是，问题很可能不在按揭贷款。我们没看到那里有大风险。麻烦也许会出现在私募信贷市场……总之，一旦风暴来临，总会有人受伤，有时还是你最想不到的行业。

And so you have to be very careful on that, like in the '00s, it was telecom and utilities, the ones that were the most stable. In '07, '08, it was Warren Buffet and newspapers. I mean, so there's underlying changes in credit you have to be very careful about, very hard to spot. And therefore, the discipline is you never put all your eggs in 1 basket. You're very careful that no matter how people think real estate or something like that. And so anyway, you'll have a normal credit cycle. Charge-offs will go up. We'll still be earning money. CECL makes it very volatile.

因此必须非常谨慎。上世纪 00 年代，问题集中在电信和公用事业——当时看似最稳的行业；2007、2008 年则是巴菲特钟爱的报业出现问题。底层信贷结构正在悄然变化，难以捕捉。纪律要求是绝不能把鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里，无论大家对房地产等资产多有信心。总之，信贷周期会按常规展开，冲销会增加，我们仍会盈利；只是 CECL 会让利润极度波动。

Like I think I pointed out at Investor Day, we put up in 2 quarters. So the first quarter of 2020 and the second quarter, \$15 billion of CECL. And then the next 4 quarters, we took it down. I mean I don't know what kind of accounting that is, I think it's crazy. I don't know who invents this s\*\*\*, but we have to deal with it regardless.

正如我在投资者日所说，我们曾在 2020 年前两季度计提了 150 亿美元的 CECL 准备，随后四个季度又冲回。我真不知道这算哪门子会计，简直疯狂，但不管是谁发明的，我们都得按规则来。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

There's been a big expansion of credit outside the banking system. You kind of referenced that. Is that a concern in your mind in terms of the...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

银行体系之外的信贷规模大幅扩张，您刚才也略有提到。您对此是否担忧？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It's hard to tell. This is the private -- I mean, look, I think some of these direct lenders are very smart people. And you had Blackstone here, you have Ares and they're all very smart. It's huge numbers now. The issue for the world is that those borrowers may be stranded when this s\*\*\* hits the fan because these people cannot roll over that credit at 13% or 14%. They're going to have to charge 13% or 14%. And so they're going to call up JPMorgan, can you -- will you have us back? In some cases, we'll say no because we'll have tapped out what we can do too because we also had our own red lines and stuff like that.

很难断言。这些“直接放贷”的私募机构里汇聚了不少聪明人，比如黑石、Ares 等，规模已非常庞大。问题在于，一旦风暴来临，借款人可能被困——他们无法以 13%、14% 的利率再融资，而放贷机构也只能收 13%、14%。届时他们会来找摩根大通求助，问能否重返银行体系；我们有时也只能说“不”，因为我们自身也有红线和额度。

So is that systemic? I don't know. There's a lot of leverage lending out there. Will someone get hurt? Probably. Will that credit dry up in that segment of the market? Probably. Are there other things we see out there that are particularly bad? No, but we have this little report we have called shadow banking. And we put it all together, from repo to money market funds to commercial paper to CLOs to mortgage banking, the mortgage businesses have moved away from banks for good reason.

这会变成系统性风险吗？不好说。杠杆贷款很多，总有人会受伤；有关信贷在那个细分市场可能枯竭。我们还没发现特别糟糕的东西，但我们有一份“影子银行”内部报告，涵盖回购、货币基金、商业票据、CLO、按揭业务等。按揭业务大举迁出银行体系也是有原因的。

The capital and liquidity requirements are so high that the bank -- it really doesn't belong in banks anymore. And will they be able to make mortgages when they \[ should spin ]? Maybe not.

资本和流动性要求高得吓人，结果按揭不再适合留在银行表内。那么市场收紧时，他们还能放贷吗？未必。

I mean even today, if you look at private label mortgages, there are 50 to 75 basis points what retail banks are doing. And -- because the only way the other folks can finance it is by securitizations. I don't know why a retail bank is issuing something at \[ 4.25% ] when you can buy it in the marketplace at \[ 5% ], right? You have to question that logic a little bit. And so you're going to see this stuff is going to get worse if the markets get tighter, and liquidity dries up a little bit. We will be prepared for it and so should you if you were smart.

即便现在，私营机构做的“私人标签”按揭利率也比零售银行低 50–75 个基点，因为他们只能靠证券化来融资。我不明白零售银行为什么要以 4.25% 发放贷款，而市场上可以买到 5% 的资产，对吧？这逻辑值得推敲。若市场进一步紧缩、流动性再缩水，情况会更糟。我们将做好准备，如果你聪明，也该如此。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Talk about some of the industry issues that you're dealing with. In terms of expense pressures, how much of the inflation burden are banks likely to see? And where are you seeing that now?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

请谈谈你们正在应对的一些行业问题。就成本压力而言，银行可能会承担多少通胀负担？目前这种压力体现在哪些方面？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It's no different than everywhere. It's -- I mean, you see it every day now. But this -- when we told you old numbers, we kind of embedded that in. I don't know what other people did when they told you their numbers. We were embedding in -- you can embed in your own number, 4%, 5%, but it's relentless. And so you're going to see a lot of people making adjustments. And by the way, I want to keep our best people. So like we have to pay well to keep our best people. We're quite religious about that, and it will be what it is.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

这跟其他行业没什么不同——现在你每天都能看到通胀的影响。当我们之前给出成本数字时，其实已把这一因素考虑在内。我不知道其他公司报数字时怎么做的。你也可以在自己的模型里假设 4%、5% 的通胀，但压力会持续不减。因此你会看到很多企业进行调整。顺便说一句，我要留住我们最优秀的人才，所以必须开出有竞争力的薪酬，这是我们的铁律，成本该是多少就是多少。

Remember, there are benefits from inflation, too, like NII is going to be much higher. And it's not a one thing, but you're going to see it, and I think you'll see a lot of banks, tech companies -- I think a lot of companies are facing it, and...

别忘了通胀也有好处，比如净利息收入（NII）会大幅提高。影响不止一面，你会看到这种变化；我认为很多银行、科技公司——其实很多企业都在面对同样的情况……

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Yes.

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

好的。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

But you -- when you guys do your own estimates for 2023, you should tell me what you think it should be. Because I could be thinking 5%, you're thinking 2% or you're thinking 2% and I'm thinking -- I'm thinking 2%, you're thinking 5% and it will be what it is at that point. We will deal with it intelligently. We'll manage our expenses like we always have and...

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

但在你们做 2023 年的成本预测时，最好告诉我你们的假设是多少。也许我认为是 5%，你们认为是 2%；或者我认为 2%，你们认为 5%。到时结果如何就如何。我们会像以往一样理智地管理开支……

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

For banks...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

对于银行来说……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

And in 2023, remember, if you have a -- if a severe recession starts sometime in 2023, inflation -- wage inflation can go to 0 like literally overnight.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

还要记住，如果 2023 年某个时候出现严重衰退，工资通胀几乎会在一夜之间掉到零。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

And how about capital? The capital pressures are growing on yourself and other banks from a combination of the macro environment and also the regulatory rules. How does that influence...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

那资本呢？宏观环境和监管规则共同作用下，你们以及其他银行面临的资本压力不断增加。这会如何影响……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It's mostly accounting rules. AOCI and CECL and so it'll \[ constrict ] but we do a little bit in \[indiscernible] , and you got to predict -- project forward and all that. And so...

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

主要是会计准则的问题，比如其他综合收益（AOCI）和 CECL，它们会形成束缚；我们在某些方面做了一点缓冲，但仍需前瞻预测，等等……

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

How does that affect your plans for growth and how you allocate capital?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

这会怎样影响你们的增长计划以及资本配置？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Not -- it doesn't affect our plans for growth in terms of growing our company or those investments we're making, it will affect how we deal with nonoperating deposits, what we put on the balance sheet or not, what we sell or not, we can be much more aggressive about what's on the balance sheet and what's not. There are a lot of things we simply don't have to keep or don't have to do. Some are to facilitate markets, some are to help clients. And so you're -- if we have to, we'll tighten that up too and we're probably going to.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

不会——它不会影响我们扩大公司规模或进行既定投资的增长计划，但会影响我们如何处理非经营性存款、哪些资产放在资产负债表内、哪些该出售。我们可以更积极地决定资产留与不留。有些东西只是为了便利市场或服务客户，并非必要持有。如果需要，我们也会收紧这些做法，而且很可能会这么做。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

But earlier in the year, you laid out a medium-term ROTCE target of 17% at the Investor Day.

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

不过在年初的投资者日上，你们提出中期股本回报率（ROTCE）目标为 17%。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It was never a medium-term target. That is what we expect to earn through the cycle. I'm getting rid of the medium. I don't even know what medium-term means. I remember when I first got to Bank One -- no, at JPMorgan, I said we aspire -- maybe it was Bank One, we aspire to earn 15% intangible equity. Inside the company, it was like an aspiration and people thought I didn't mean it. So I eventually said, no, that's your frigging target, buddy. That's what you got to earn, like that's what you should be earning. Let's not pretend. So we said 17% is what we expect to earn through the cycle, and we have.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

那从来都不是“中期”目标，而是我们希望在整个周期中赚到的回报。我干脆把“中期”去掉，因为我甚至不知道“中期”是什么意思。我记得刚到 Bank One——不，应该是在 JPMorgan——的时候，我说我们渴望，也可能是在 Bank One，说我们渴望赚到15%的有形股本回报。公司内部把这当作一种愿景，觉得我并不是认真的。所以我最后说：不，那就是你们的目标，伙计们，那就是你们必须赚到的水平，别装了。因此我们说17%是我们期望在整个周期里赚到的回报，而事实证明我们也达到了。

And -- but the way I look at it is through the cycle. So this cycle, we're underearning NII. We're overearning in credit. We still got 17% last year or better. I don't really include CECL in there because that just swings around just too much, but I obviously include charge-offs and stuff like that. And next year, NII is going to be a nice \[kicker] for us and expense is going up a bit and all that. So it's still 17%. And if you have a recession, well, we'll be 17%. It will be something lower, like that's life.

在我看来，一切都要放在整个周期里衡量。当前这一周期，我们在净利息收入（NII）上赚得偏少，在信用上赚得偏多，但去年依旧做到或超过17%。我基本不把 CECL 算进去，因为波动太大，但冲销等项目当然要算。明年 NII 将成为不错的“加分项”，费用略有上升，整体仍是17%。如果出现衰退，可能就达不到17%，那就是现实。

And I also told our CFO, Jeremy Barnum, to do a little calculate -- anyone have a 12c in front of you? HP 12c, whatever it is, do the calculation that JPMorgan earned 17% in capital and grows at 7% a year for how many years does it take before 50% of the GDP of the United States of America? I mean I would take 17% all day long, okay? That's pretty good. Now you all don't earn 17% of your capital.

我还让我们的首席财务官杰里米·巴纳姆算了笔账——谁手边有 HP 12c 计算器？把摩根大通以17%的资本回报率、每年再增长7%代入计算，看需要多少年资本才能相当于美国 GDP 的50%。说实话，17%的回报我天天都想要，这已经相当不错了。你们可都赚不到17%的资本回报。

增长比资本回报率更重要，银行业有自己的优势，新增的资本一般都能用出去，有些行业就不一定了。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

One of the drivers this year is loan growth, and you're looking for loan growth to be kind of growing in the high single digits. How broad-based is that? And then how does the hurricane kind of factor into that?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

今年的驱动因素之一是贷款增长，你们预计贷款将以高个位数的速度增长。这种增长范围有多广？“飓风”因素又会对其产生怎样的影响？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Again, you have to separate the hurricane from running the business day to day. And that hurricane is making us be careful on how we're running the business day to day. Loan growth is an output. If you run a bank and you think a lot of loans, you do not want loans. A lot of loans have a suboptimal return. If I generate a loan, and I put it in my balance sheet, which you can buy the same loan in the market, okay, without any overhead, why would I have 240,000 people doing that a year? Why don't you just have no people and buy the loan? That's called a fund.

再说一次，必须把“飓风”与日常经营区分开来。“飓风”让我们在日常经营中更加谨慎。贷款增长只是结果。如果你经营一家银行，认为“多放贷”就是好事，那其实并非如此——很多贷款的回报并不理想。如果我自己放一笔贷款并放在表内，而市场上可以买到同样的贷款且不用任何管理成本，那我为什么还要让24万员工去做？直接没人、买现成贷款就行了，那叫“基金”。

And so the reason you do a loan is because you're building a business that for every loan and for the most part, loans are priced at the market. And of course, with regulations -- and one day I'm going to show you all a chart, if I have to hold twice as much capital as somebody else, somebody else should own the loan. Now I may not be able to do it overnight, d\*\*\* straight I'm going to do it over time. Why do we own loans that you can hold much more profitably than me? So to me, it's going to -- you've got to recycle your capital, and it happens in some markets and not in others. But loan growth is an outcome. If you don't have the whole business, you wouldn't probably be in the business at all.

所以放贷的真正原因在于你要打造业务生态——绝大多数贷款都是按市场定价。当然，还有监管因素。有一天我会给你们看一张图：如果我必须持有别人的两倍资本，那这笔贷款就该让别人持有。我可能做不到一夜之间剥离，但迟早会这么做。为什么要持有别人能赚得更高回报的贷款？因此，必须轮转资本；有些市场可行，有些不行。贷款增长只是结果；如果你没有整体业务，可能根本不会涉足这一领域。

And the whole business is -- and think of the subscription businesses, cash management, custody, other flows, fee businesses, the relationship. So one of the benefits of JPMorgan, we make -- and this is why we're doing unitranche lending now. Like in unitranche lending, they're bigger loans, they're priced better than our Term A, Term B and sub and all stuff like that, you're getting paid more per dollar risk. And -- but that's all they get. And you -- and then people invest in that. We get that plus all this other stuff. That's why we do it.

整个业务包括“订阅式”模式、现金管理、托管、其他流动及费用业务，以及客户关系网络。摩根大通的优势之一就在于此，这也是我们现在做 unitranche （单一分层）贷款的原因。此类贷款规模更大、定价优于传统的 Term A、Term B 及次级贷款——承担同等风险却能获得更高收益。但投资者只能拿到利息，我们则能拿到利息及其他配套业务收入，这才是我们愿意做的原因。

I wouldn't do it just to get that. And so you got to be very careful when you're a bank about why you're a bank at all, and so loans are an outcome of -- and obviously, an outcome of growth in the economy and all that. So we see a lot of today, middle market companies are taking -- they kept the revolvers, they need more to finance their inventory, the receivables and CapEx, which seems to be going up a whole bunch of different places. So it looks right now, you got a pretty decent loan growth this year.

如果只有利息收入，我不会去做。所以作为一家银行，你得弄清楚自己为何存在；贷款是多种因素叠加的结果，也是经济增长带来的结果。现在我们看到很多中型企业保留了循环信贷额度，还需要更多资金来为库存、应收账款和资本开支融资，相关需求在多个领域都在上升。目前来看，今年的贷款增长相当不错。

这个假设前提非常复杂，不一定成立。

We may very well reduce what we hold in the balance sheet, which is a different issue. That's more of a best execution issue to us or managing the balance sheet. So -- but the loan growth itself, it looks to be pretty robust right now.

我们很可能会减少表内持有的贷款规模，那是另一个话题——更多是“最佳执行”或资产负债表管理问题。但就贷款增长本身而言，目前看起来相当强劲。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

How about the demand on the consumer side? Are they revolving a little bit more on cards? And what are you seeing in terms of consumer demand and...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

那么在消费者端的需求如何？他们在信用卡上是否出现更多循环欠款？你在消费者需求方面看到了什么情况……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Honestly, I haven't looked at it since Investor Day, so I don't want to update that. But I've been clear from then, I expect that to happen. Now you can guess when it's going to happen, but it's like a given. And you already see it in subprime. So my guess is it will just happen in prime a little bit later, but it's the same basic thing.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

说实话，自从投资者日之后我还没再看过这些数据，所以我不想给出最新数字。但我当时就说得很清楚，我预期这种情况会发生。你可以猜测具体时间点，但基本上这是板上钉钉的。现在已经在次级信贷领域出现了，我的猜测是稍后也会出现在优质客户那里，本质上是同一个现象。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

You mentioned managing the nonoperating deposits...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

你提到过要管理非经营性存款……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

But also Marianne always points out that you got to look at 2 things. Well, NII went down because \[revolve] went down, charge-offs went way down because revolve went down. So they had some relation between the 2.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

玛丽安常常提醒我们必须关注两件事。首先，净利息收入（NII）下降是因为循环欠款减少；其次，坏账冲销也大幅下降，同样因为循环欠款减少。两者之间存在一定关联。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

In terms of industry deposits, do you expect deposits to leave the banking system as QT gets going? And you mentioned managing nonoperating...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

谈到行业存款，随着量化紧缩（QT）启动，你认为存款会流出银行体系吗？你刚才也提到管理非经营性存款……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

I want to push them out. I mean I'm on the other side of this one. I want to -- we have a lot of \[nonoperating] deposits we keep as a service to clients. I don't know. I mean -- but the issue for the industry is what happens when they reverse QT? And what does it come out of first? And we don't really know. Like I said, we've never had QT. If I had to tell you my current thinking, it's at first, you're going to see a reduction in money market funds kind of wholesale-related deposits, the Fed RRP facility is now an astounding \$2 trillion, but eventually, you're going to see it filter into consumer. Because when we had QE, if I remember correctly, and actually, we should get this data because we did some real work way back when that first QE showed up in wholesale deposits, but eventually morphed into consumer deposits. And so you're going to see that.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

我希望把这些存款“赶出去”，在这个问题上我站在另一边。我们持有大量非经营性存款，只是为了向客户提供服务。我不知道具体情况会怎样——行业真正要面对的问题是，当美联储逆转QT时，资金会先从哪里流出？我们并不清楚。如我所说，我们从未经历过QT。如果让我谈当前的想法，最初你会看到货币市场基金这类批发相关存款减少，美联储逆回购工具（RRP）如今高达2万亿美元；但最终你会看到影响渗透到消费者端。因为如果我没记错，当年实行QE时，最初表现为批发存款增加，后来也转变成消费者存款的增加，所以这次你也会看到类似现象。

So we -- again, we have to be prepared for both. Like where is the runoff going to be? So we -- I think Jeremy gave you guys a number about expected deposit growth of all of our assumptions, and that number is probably still pretty good. And I gave that it could be plus or minus \$300 billion or \$400 billion. But again, it is \$400 billion, and it comes out of nonoperating deposits. It doesn't really mean that much to us.

因此，我们必须对两种情况都做好准备：到底会在哪些领域出现存款流失？我记得杰里米给你们提供过一个基于整体假设的存款增量预估，这个数字现在看来依然靠谱。我曾提过，实际结果可能正负3000亿或4000亿美元。但再次强调，如果是4000亿美元流出，那主要来自非经营性存款，对我们而言影响并不大。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

And maybe you could talk a little bit to these folks here today about the investment agenda that you laid out at the Investor Day. Just, I mean, you've got a leadership position in most of your businesses. So where are the opportunities you see that are...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

或许您可以向在座各位简单介绍一下在投资者日提出的投资议程。毕竟，贵行在大多数业务中都处于领先地位——那么您认为机会主要在哪里？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

What the team showed, which I think is really important, not just where we're a leader, but where we're not. Like you could be #1 in fixed income trading, but we're #4 in Asia, we're #7 in this country, we're #10 in FX in this country, we're number -- so if you look at all the weak spots where we don't have big shares, we don't -- like even our Chase Wealth Management because Jen and Marianne showed the huge growth opportunities, but we have like a 1.5% share from \$100,000 to \$5 million of assets under management. Why not \$10 million? And Jen mentioned that -- I think \[indiscernible] got a 20% share in deposits. I'm talking about 10 or 15 years from now, because that's almost every other country has that as you add services and products.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

团队展示的一点非常关键——不仅要看到我们领先的领域，也要看到我们不领先的地方。比如固定收益交易我们可能是第一，但在亚洲我们排第四，在美国某些细分市场排第七，外汇业务排第十……如果你把所有弱项加总起来，就能发现我们仍有巨大提升空间。再比如 Chase 财富管理——正如 Jen 和 Marianne 展示的那样，增长潜力巨大，但我们在10万到500万美元可管理资产客群中的份额只有约1.5%，为什么不能做到1000万？Jen 还提到我们在存款端的市占率仅20%。我说的是放眼未来10到15年，随着更多服务与产品的加入，几乎所有国家的银行都能做到更高渗透率。

So -- but anyway, the way we look at branches, bankers, and these could be -- and we don't -- we're not going to give you all the numbers. Some are embedded in the presentations. But opening a branch, we know exactly the profitability pretty much is going to be down the road. And we've been positively surprised. And now we're in 48 states.

至于网点、银行家等投入——我们不会把所有数字都公布，部分数据已包含在演示材料中。开设一家新网点，我们几乎可以精准预估其未来盈利情况，而结果往往好于预期。如今我们的分行已遍布48个州。

Hiring bankers in middle market or Chase Wealth Management bankers, we pretty much know what the outcome is going to be, and we've been positively surprised. Marketing is -- that can go up or down. So we sit here and Marianne answered a number, \$7 billion of marketing.

无论是中端市场业务银行家，还是 Chase 财富管理的顾问，我们大体能预测其业绩，也往往超出预期。至于营销预算则可增可减——Marianne 提到今年营销支出约为70亿美元。

Another accounting ridiculous thing is in a lot of the credit card business, it's expensed against NII in 12 months, so you don't see it. The only thing you see -- we tell you about that. But I mean, I don't know that doesn't seem to be matching revenues and expenses to me, just like CECL does and AOCI does and banks is like the only industry where all the losses are upfronted and everything else is \[ on to come ].

还有一个荒诞的会计处理：信用卡业务的获客成本在12个月内直接冲抵净利息收入，外界根本看不见。类似的还有 CECL 和 AOCI——银行业似乎成了唯一需要一次性计提所有潜在损失、而收益却要日后再算的行业。

And which hurts capital, by the way. It hurts capital formation in banking, which I, again, think is a minor mistake. But that -- those numbers could double. You could have \$1 billion of opportunity that gets very high returns or can disappear right away. And the other lesson -- probably secret lesson is sometimes when things get bad, that marketing money is worth more, not less because you get far more bang for the buck. So you got to be a little careful. That's why I don't like making promises on expenses at all.

这种做法会侵蚀资本，阻碍银行业的资本形成，我认为这是个不小的错误。这些数字可能翻倍——十亿美元投入可能带来极高回报，也可能瞬间蒸发。还有一个“隐秘”的经验：在逆风环境下，营销预算往往更值钱而不是更廉价，因为投入产出比会大幅提升。因此我不喜欢对费用做绝对承诺。

We could spend \$500 million more on marketing, credit card or marketing, something like this. And the returns are extraordinarily high, we're going to seize it, and then explain it to our shareholders. Just like you would if you owned 100% of the company, and then we went -- the harder ones are -- and every business went through stuff they're doing some of the -- and we gave like very specific things, just some examples of AI, okay, where we know we're spending -- we didn't tell you how much we're spending, but there's \$1 billion of identifiable benefit. We gave one -- I'll give you one example on risk and fraud.

如果再追加5亿美元信用卡营销预算，而预期回报极高，我们就会果断投入，再向股东解释——就像你全资拥有一家公司时会做的决定那样。至于更难衡量的项目——各业务线都在推进，其中有些非常具体的例子，比如人工智能。我们虽未披露投入金额，但可识别的收益就有10亿美元。举一个风险与欺诈管理的例子。

Our risk and fraud in the consumer bank -- losses are coming down while volumes over the years have doubled. And you all know how much fraud is out there today. That's AI. A couple of other examples like that. And AI does things like hedging a lot of our equity portfolios today, which is astronomical in a way you couldn't do as a human being. And then we gave specific examples on software we're building that has identifiable returns and some of that doesn't really, some of the modernization stuff and data center stuff. But even like the data center stuff, we know when we move some of the new data center that the operating costs for that application dropped 20% to 30%, and it becomes accessible to far more services.

零售银行风险与欺诈损失在交易量翻番的同时下降，各位都知道当今欺诈行为有多猖獗——这就是 AI 的功劳。类似例子还有很多。AI 还能为我们的股票投资组合做对冲，这是人工难以企及的规模。我们还列举了若干软件项目，部分是现代化和数据中心升级，拥有可量化回报。即便是数据中心迁移，应用运营成本也能降低20%至30%，并支持更多服务，可谓价值难以估量。

It's kind of invaluable, but -- so we try to give people a taste for all those things. And of \$77 billion, about \$15 billion is what we call investments. And we try to have rigor around those and...

这些价值几乎难以用金钱衡量——因此我们尽力让投资者感受到。全年770亿美元支出中，大约150亿美元归类为“投资”，我们会对这些投入实行严格的管理与评估……

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

And in terms of how the investment agenda gets set at JPMorgan, it's not Dimon says from the top down, right? It does come from the bottom up and people come to you with ideas.

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

那么摩根大通的投资议程是如何制定的？并不是戴蒙从上而下的一声令下，对吧？确实是自下而上，员工会带着想法找到你。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

It's a little bit of both. So -- and it should be, like so people we ask them, what do you want to do? How do you want to do it? What are your opportunities? And they -- that service is up. Some things -- and we don't tend to -- if they're obvious, we tend to let them do it, okay? But there are certain things that have to set at the top, modernization is going to be set at the top. Certain things we have to -- like I've been in a lot of companies where operations is always underinvested in because no one sets a budget for operations. If you have operations, but it's in the CIB or the company, the rebuild and fixing and technology that supports operations has got to be budgeted essentially. If it's budgeted in a fight, front office will always win. And the new data centers will never be built. So the new data centers were top down. Some of the monetization is top down. Some of the other stuff that's in -- like if you ask Daniel Pinto in the CIB, it's top down. And then other stuff bubbles up. It's both.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

两者兼而有之，而且本该如此——我们会问团队：你想做什么？怎么做？机会在哪里？他们会把方案呈报上来。若某些项目显而易见，我们通常放手让他们去做。但有些事情必须由高层确定，比如现代化改造必须自上而下推动。我在很多公司见过运营部门长期投入不足，因为没人专门给运营做预算。如果运营归属CIB或整个公司，那么重建、修复及支撑运营的技术必须得到预算保障；若预算拉锯，前台永远占上风，新的数据中心永远建不起来。因此数据中心由上而下决策，一些变现项目也是如此。再比如你如果问CIB的丹尼尔·平托，也有不少自上而下的内容；另一些则是自下而上涌现。两种方式同时存在。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

So from the outside, how should we gauge the success of the investments over time? I mean, just in terms of how it plays to your operating metrics, ROE?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦自主研究有限责任合伙公司

那么从外部角度，我们应如何随时间评估这些投资的成功？比如它们如何体现在运营指标和股本回报率上？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Well, we -- I mean, we try to show you tons of examples that should give you comfort in how we go about it. But the end of the day, do we earn 17% on tangible equity through the cycle? And do we grow? Do we compete? Because it's very easy not to grow. It's very easy not to invest in your future and have higher margins. I also think -- I've always been opposed to this concept of ever-increasing margins. I don't know what people are thinking. We live in a capitalistic world.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

我们——也就是说，我们已向你们展示了大量案例，希望你们对我们的做法放心。但归根结底，要看我们是否在整个周期中实现17%的有形股本回报，以及我们是否保持增长、保持竞争力。不增长很容易：不为未来投资，就能获得更高利润率。我一直反对“利润率永远提升”的观点——我不知道人们怎么会有这种想法，我们生活在资本主义世界里。

So when people -- I remember that when Citi was under, they're constantly increasing their margins and they're increasing operating leverage. Well, what do you increase operating leverage to? Jeff Bezos says, "Your margin is my opportunity." So we take very often, we're giving the customer a better deal. That's what we do. It's called capitalism.

当年花旗陷入困境时，他们总说利润率和经营杠杆不断提升——那经营杠杆还能提升到什么程度？杰夫·贝索斯说过：“你的利润率就是我的机会。”因此我们常常选择给客户更优惠的交易，这就是资本主义。

You all do it, [ required ], to think that you can honestly always increase your margin is a mistake. As long as you're building a great company with great returns, great customer results, good growth and stuff like that, you should be happy with your company.

你们也都是这样做的。如果真以为利润率能永远上升，那就是错误的。只要你在打造一家卓越企业，拥有优异回报、出色客户成果和良好增长，就该对自己的公司感到满意。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

In addition to the organic investments...

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

除了内部增长投资之外……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

But the other thing to keep in mind is if we don't think this stuff is working, we can cancel it. We're not like the federal government started a program that doesn't work and it's there 30 years later. We can cancel it. And we apply rigor looking backwards about some of the stuff we did that didn't work or did work or...

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

还要记住一点：如果我们发现这些事情行不通，我们可以立即叫停。我们可不像联邦政府那样，启动一个无效项目却拖上三十年。我们随时可以取消，并且会严谨回顾过去做过的项目，评估哪些有效、哪些无效……

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

You've been using fill in bolt-on M&A a little bit more in the past couple of years, in addition to the organic investments, what's the change that led to that?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

除了内生投资之外，过去几年你们也更频繁地进行小规模补充性并购，这背后发生了什么变化？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

Well, I think for a long time, we wouldn't have been allowed to do acquisitions for a whole bunch of different reasons. And the other thing, which I think is very important. I think every company -- I grew up in an environment where every time a business wasn't doing well, at the management meeting, you quickly start b*********** about M&A. Well, we need to have size and scope. I think every business should have your own plan, how you can build it, how you're going to compete organically. And organic growth is the hardest growth. Adding to sales force is hard, adding research is hard, adding branches is hard, and you can't turn them on and turn them off. And so I always tell people, no, you have a job, organic growth that's a huge discipline, at bankers and clients and services and products, and it's the best growth. It's your culture. It's consistent and you know what it is. It's like our opening branch.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

多年来，我们由于各种原因基本上不被允许进行收购。另外还有一点也非常重要。我成长的环境里，只要业务表现不佳，管理层会议上就会有人开始抱怨并购——“我们需要规模和广度”。但我认为，每家公司都应当有自己的规划，明确如何自我建设、如何靠内生力量竞争。内生增长是最难的增长：扩充销售团队难、增加研究投入难、开设新网点难，而且这些都不是开关一按就能立刻启停的。所以我总对大家说——是的，你们的任务就是推动内生增长，这需要巨大纪律性，涉及银行家、客户、服务、产品，但这是最好的增长，体现了你的文化，一贯、可预期，就像我们开设新网点那样。

Doug Petno showed a chart, since WaMu, where do we open? We're now in all 75 -- I think all 75 major cities. We were in 25 of them when we started before WaMu. Getting him to open in every -- not getting him, he wanted to, but to open in every place, to hire bankers, to add the credit officers, to add the treasury services product managers, it's a lot of work. And -- but it's great work because the returns are enormous. And I could have bought -- we couldn't buy another bank, but acquisitions are also very hard. They shouldn't detract [ organic ].

Doug Petno 曾展示一张图，自从收购华盛顿互惠（WaMu）以后，我们的网点拓展到哪里？现在我们已进入全部 75 个——我想是全部 75 个——主要城市；在 WaMu 之前我们只在 25 个城市。要让他在每个地方开店、聘请银行家、新增信贷官、增加现金管理产品经理，这工作量非常大，但回报也极为可观。我本来可以——虽然我们不能再买一家银行——但收购同样很难，而且不应削弱内生增长。

So years ago, I was -- told you all we wanted -- I'd rather invest in our own business organically, M&A after a dividend and then buyback. And so I think acquisition opportunities opened up, and we started to take them. And I want the management team to be looking and they're disciplined enough that they can grow organically and look as opposed to it distracts -- sometimes it does distract from growing organically. When you do a big acquisition, also all your teams are focused on consolidating and putting things together and the management team and the kind of innovation and organic growth drops by the way side. It doesn't have to, but it often does.

很多年前我就告诉大家，我们更愿意把资金先投给自己的业务做内生增长，接着是并购、分红，然后回购。所以当收购机会出现后，我们开始把握。我希望管理团队能够同时保持对内生增长的关注，并且有足够的纪律性来兼顾收购，因为并购有时确实会分散对内生增长的注意力。大型收购后，全体团队都聚焦整合与协同，管理层以及创新、内生增长常常会被搁置——并非必然，但确实经常如此。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

Is there any kind of common denominator or a thread of the type of things you'll do inorganically versus build?

在非内生式扩张（收购）与自主建设之间，你们采取行动时是否有任何共同准则或主线思路？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

No. If you -- in asset management, you all understand as we bought company that manages timberland. We bought a company that does tax -- it takes single accounts, MSAs and those tax-advantaged investing, so it automatically adjusts for it and a company that does ESG open invest where you can basically say, "I like this index but I want to over-index to boards that have more women on them or that have -- do a better job on scoring on this climate score or ESG." So you can run a portfolio and then direct it the way you want.

并没有。如果说资产管理方面——大家都知道我们收购了一家林地管理公司；我们还收购了一家负责税务处理的公司，它面向单一账户、医疗储蓄账户（MSA）等享有税收优惠的投资，可自动进行调整；此外，还有一家提供 ESG “开放式投资” 的公司，投资者可以说：“我喜欢这个指数，但想在女董事占比较高或气候/ESG 评分更高的公司上加大权重。” 这样，你就能按自己的意愿管理并定向投资组合。

In payments, we -- you got to look at Viva, its capabilities are extraordinary. So it's just kind of a fabulous add-on for us. And a little bit -- the one that's a little bit different is the stuff we did in travel. cxLoyalty, a rewards company and Frosch, a travel agency. But it's fabulous stuff, and we expect it all to pay back. And not only pay back and defend the business, it will also defend the business. So we have to execute, but the fact is, I think it was a fabulous strategy, and I congratulate them for even coming up with all of that. And we've got some very competitive folks there who want to win big time in travel.

在支付领域——你得看看 Viva，它的能力极为卓越，对我们来说是一项绝佳的增量收购。稍有不同的是我们在旅行业务上做的布局：cxLoyalty（积分奖励公司）和 Frosch（旅行社）。这些都很棒，我们预计它们不仅能收回投资、带来收益，还能巩固并防卫我们的业务版图。关键在于执行，但我认为这是一项出色的战略，对团队能想出这些点子表示祝贺。我们在旅行领域还有一群竞争心极强的同事，渴望取得巨大成功。

The other amazing thing, and we -- I always say, is there a reason you win? 1/4 of all U.S. travel goes through our credit card. That's a huge number. And only a portion of that goes through our own travel-related stuff. And if we can increase that portion even a little bit, it's fabulous for the client, it's fabulous for the company and it's hugely competitive, offensive and defensive.

还有一件令人惊叹的事——我常说，为什么我们会赢？全美有四分之一的旅行消费通过我们的信用卡完成，这是个巨大的数字。然而只有其中一部分流向我们自有的旅行平台。如果我们能将这部分比例哪怕再提高一点点，对客户来说极好，对公司也极佳，并在进攻和防守两端都极具竞争力。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

And in terms of the competitive environment, as long as I've been doing this, you've always said as a financial institution, there's competition everywhere, from every angle always. But with the rise of fintechs and maybe big tech looking at financial services, is the nature or intensity of competition changed in recent years?

就竞争环境而言，从我开始做这行以来，你一直说作为一家金融机构，到处都有竞争，总是从各个角度而来。但随着金融科技的崛起，以及大型科技公司可能涉足金融服务，竞争的性质或激烈程度近年来是否发生了变化？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Well, I think in the recent months, it has come down a little bit. Look, I think there's going to be a lot of winners and losers in this. And what I was trying to point out is that 20 years ago, if I was sitting here, our competition was mostly other banks around the world. U.S., around the world, stuff like that. And now you have very intense shadow banks. Think of Citadel, the mortgage brokers, direct lenders, a lot of payments companies, exchanges, data companies. But they're skimming off a lot of profit from the financial system, and then you have fintech. And they're good ones, Stripe and PayPal and Adyen and Square and they're all doing interesting stuff.

我认为最近几个月竞争强度略有下降。看，这里会出现许多赢家和输家。我想强调的是，20 年前如果我坐在这里，我们的竞争主要是世界各地的其他银行——美国的、全球的，诸如此类。而现在竞争对手包括非常激烈的影子银行：比如 Citadel、抵押贷款经纪人、直接放贷机构、大量支付公司、交易所和数据公司。他们从金融体系中抽走了可观利润；然后还有金融科技公司，优秀的有 Stripe、PayPal、Adyen、Square，他们都在做有趣的事情。

And then you got big tech -- so big tech, you've all seen Apple has made their announcements about they want to do P2P. They've already got the Apple Wallet. They want to give you some kind of credit journey experience. They're going to do merchant processing. They're going to do merchant lending. It may not be their own balance sheet, but that's a bank. That's a bank. I may not have insured deposits, but it's a bank. If you move money, hold money, manage money, lend money, that's a bank. And then everyone is going to try to embed payment systems in their ecosystem, just makes sense. It could be as a bank, it could be white label, it could be -- which we're not going to do, but someone will do it or it could be they'll give you a marketplace.

接着是大型科技公司——大家都看到苹果宣布要做 P2P，他们已经拥有 Apple Wallet，并希望为你提供某种信用旅程体验；他们将做商户收单，也将做商户放贷。也许这些业务不在他们自身的资产负债表上，但那就是一家银行——没保险存款也一样。如果你转钱、持有资金、管理资金、放贷，那就是银行。然后每个人都会尝试将支付系统嵌入自己的生态系统，这很合理。可以以银行形式出现，也可以是白标模式——我们不会这么做，但总会有人做；或者他们会提供一个市场。

So there's a lot -- I think there's a lot of competition coming. And the reason I talk about it is not -- I'm not afraid of it. I'm in favor of competition, and there are strengths and weaknesses for banks, but you better not put your head in the sand. I mean the worst thing a CEO can do at a company is have this ABC: arrogance, bureaucracy or complacency. If you put your head in the sand, you die. And I think that -- I'm just trying to note that. I think JPMorgan is in pretty good shape. I think the competition is going to be brutal and fun to watch. And I think there'll be a lot of losers in there too, by the way.

所以我认为竞争会非常多。我之所以谈论这一点，并不是因为害怕；我支持竞争。银行有自身的优势和劣势，但你绝不能把头埋进沙子。对一家公司的 CEO 来说，最糟糕的就是出现 ABC：傲慢（Arrogance）、官僚主义（Bureaucracy）或自满（Complacency）。若把头埋进沙子，你就死定了。我只是想指出这一点。我认为摩根大通状况相当好；竞争将会残酷，也会很有看头。当然，也会有很多失败者。

最好的差异化是没有竞争，多元化的企业集团很难管理竞争。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

You've written about the need for a level playing field between banks and new entrants, how much...

你曾写过银行和新进入者之间需要公平竞争环境的问题，那么……

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

I didn't say that. I simply -- because we're not going to get a level playing field. I just don't expect -- the regulators aren't going to change anything on banks at this point. But what I was pointing out is that among the things we have to deal with is we have capital requirements, some of these people don't. We have liquidity requirements, some of these people don't. We've got social requirements, some of these people don't. We've got AML, KYC, which they have in some capacity, but they don't. We've got insurance requirements, they don't. We've got resolution requirements, they don't. We've got -- that's -- I'm just pointing out the truth. It is what it is, just acknowledge it. That's all. And if they ever want to change, change it, then let them change it. I can't rely on any of those things being changed. It's been 10 years since Basel and they're still talking about Basel IV, and we still don't know what it is. So that creates uncertainty for banks. It's not what I like, but that's my lot in life. I got to deal with it.

我可没那样说。我只是——我们不可能获得公平的竞争环境，我根本不指望。监管机构此刻不会在银行规则上做任何改变。但我要指出的是，我们必须面对的问题之一是：我们有资本充足要求，而有些竞争对手没有；我们有流动性要求，他们没有；我们有社会责任要求，他们没有；我们有反洗钱（AML）和了解你的客户（KYC）要求，他们或多或少有，但没有我们严格；我们有保险要求，他们没有；我们有破产处置要求，他们也没有。我只是陈述事实，就是如此，承认它就好。如果他们哪天想改，就让他们去改。我不能指望这些规定会变化。巴塞尔协议已谈了十年，他们还在讨论巴塞尔 IV，我们仍不知道具体内容。这给银行带来不确定性。我不喜欢，但这是我的命运，我得应对。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

On the consumer side, Marianne and Jen touched a bit on this last week. You reached over 66 million American households, got a dominant footprint in retail banking. What's the strategy to connect with younger generation as they begin to build wealth and connect with them on broader levels?

在消费者业务方面，Marianne 和 Jen 上周略有谈及这一点。你们已覆盖超过 6600 万美国家庭，在零售银行领域拥有主导地位。随着年轻一代开始积累财富并寻求更广层面的连接，你们的战略是什么？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Yes. Well, I think I've got the numbers they put up there, but -- we already have a huge share of Gen Z and Millennials. So it isn't like we're missing anything. And they like our products, like our service, like our Sapphire card, and then we added things like self-directed investing, which we acknowledge we didn't have the best platform of all, but it's already up to \$50 billion or \$60 billion. So it's there.

是的。我想他们之前展示过相关数字——我们在 Z 世代和千禧一代中已经占据了巨大的市场份额，所以并不存在缺口。他们喜欢我们的产品、服务以及 Sapphire 卡，然后我们又增加了自助投资等功能，我们承认那不是业内最佳平台，但资产规模已经达到 500 亿或 600 亿美元，发展势头良好。

So you can now go on your phone -- and we got to make it easier for you. We've got to add a bunch of stuff that other people have. So we have your account, we've got your deposits, you get your credit journey, you get free bill pay, you get free risk rewards, you get free offers, you get free this, you get free trading, it's pretty good. So we're trying to offer the customer more and more, which will appeal to customers in general.

现在你可以直接在手机上操作——我们还得让流程更简便，并加入其他人已有的诸多功能。我们为你提供账户、存款、信用历程、免费账单支付、免费风险奖励、免费优惠、免费这一项、免费交易，整体体验相当不错。我们努力向客户提供更多服务，以普遍吸引消费者。

We're not trying to gamify or anything like that, but we want to be there for customers younger and older. And so -- and I think we've been quite successful at it and more to come. I think some of these things, Marianne just gave you a snippet of travel and offers, more to come.

我们并非要搞“游戏化”之类的东西，但希望同时满足年轻和年长客户的需求。我认为我们已取得相当成功，未来还会有更多动作。Marianne 方才只透露了旅行和优惠的一小部分，后续还有更多。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

Could you touch on the credit card environment and how you differentiate as a credit card issuer and a payment provider in a very competitive environment and maybe what you're doing with travel and some of the engagement stuff?

能否谈谈信用卡市场环境，以及在竞争激烈的环境中你们如何在信用卡发行和支付服务方面实现差异化？也请介绍一下你们在旅行和用户互动方面的举措。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Yes. So payments, I think payments is kind of probably the most challenged. And people talk about like it's all -- it's not all challenged. JPMorgan moves \$10 trillion a day around the world, very cheap, very effective through our AML systems, our BSA systems, our risk and fraud systems, 99.9999 accuracy and all that. But some parts are challenged when you try to move money overseas. So people looking at that whole ecosystem, trying to reduce the cost, the price to merchants or consumers and we have to make sure we do that, too. I just -- I think it's a whole thing. And obviously, credit card on the consumer side, credit card, debit card and all the other payment systems, ACH and wires and all that, make it easier and better for our customers, which we intend to do. So in credit card, we've got the brand, our brand, Sapphire, Chase cards and things like that. And then we've got wonderful co-brands, Southwest, United, great partner companies that kind of enhance our system with travels and stuff like that.

是的。就支付而言，我认为这一领域面临的挑战或许最大。人们常说一切都受挑战，其实并非如此。JPMorgan 每天在全球清算 10 万亿美元，借助我们的 AML、BSA、风险与欺诈系统，效率高、成本低，准确率 99.9999%。但当你试图跨境转账时，部分环节确实存在挑战。许多人在审视整个生态系统，试图降低商户或消费者的成本，我们也必须做到这一点。我认为这是一个整体议题。当然，在消费者侧，包括信用卡、借记卡及其它支付系统，ACH、电汇等等，我们都会让客户使用得更轻松、更优质。在信用卡方面，我们拥有自有品牌 —— Sapphire、Chase 卡等；还与 Southwest、United 等优秀伙伴推出联名卡，借助旅行等场景增强整体系统。

So what we want to do is give you better travel packages and better rewards programs and better offers that are more targeted to you, more personalized in a way that you really like using those platforms. And we're convinced it's a great strategy, and we have to execute, but I think you're going to see that early -- late this year, early next year, some really neat stuff coming.

因此，我们希望为你提供更优旅行套餐、更佳奖励计划以及更精准、更个性化的优惠，让你真正乐于在这些平台上使用。我们相信这是极佳战略，并将全力执行；我想你将在今年年底到明年初看到一些非常酷的新产品推出。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

And then just more broadly on technology, the cost of it and the benefits of it, right?

那么更广泛地说，关于技术，它的成本和收益，对吧？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

That's the other thing, by the way, about data. We protect people's data and privacy. A lot of other people out there in the financial services, they're selling that data all the time. We don't, we're not allowed to, but we can use it to help you on risk or fraud or marketing. And we can partner with someone without giving away data where we can offer you something better. And so that is both a plus and a minus how you look at how banks get to use data and stuff like that. So -- and that will be a big asset, I think, hopefully, one day.

顺便说一下，关于数据还有一点。我们保护人们的数据和隐私。金融服务领域的许多人一直在出售这些数据。我们不会，也不被允许这么做，但我们可以利用数据在风险、欺诈防范或营销方面帮助你。我们也能在不泄露数据的情况下与他人合作，从而为你提供更好的服务。因此，从银行如何使用数据的角度来看，这既是优势也是劣势。不过我认为，有朝一日这将成为一项巨大资产。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

And you touched on this in the past, but could you help us kind of demystify a little bit what moving to the cloud means for JPMorgan?

你过去也提到过这一点，但能否帮我们稍微解密一下，迁移到云端对摩根大通意味着什么？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Yes, we've been writing about it for years. Digital, cloud, and AI are -- they're all related and they're real, okay? The cloud allows you to do enormous compute. I think Lori Beer gave the thing, you could go from like 1 server to 14,000 servers to do a bunch of calculations all the way down to 1. We can't even do that in our big data centers. And it's unbelievable compute.

是的，多年来我们一直在撰文讨论这一点：数字化、云以及 AI——它们彼此关联，且都是真实存在的。云能够让你进行巨大的计算。我记得 Lori Beer 举过例子，你可以从 1 台服务器瞬间扩展到 14,000 台来完成大量计算，然后再缩减回 1 台。即便是我们的超大型数据中心也做不到这一点，这种计算能力令人难以置信。

That compute when you can access multiple databases in a split second to do something for you for risk or fraud or marketing is extraordinary. That compute power, whether it's in the private cloud or the public cloud. So you have to put -- you could put stuff in the public cloud \[ that you need unbelievable compute ], stuff which you don't need it, it's very steady. You don't have to. It's all different, but you have to spend the time to refactor and replatform data and apps, so they're cloud-eligible, it's in the private cloud or the public cloud.

当你能够在瞬间访问多个数据库，为风险管理、欺诈防范或营销执行操作时，那种计算能力非同凡响。无论是私有云还是公有云，这种算力都行之有效。因此，你可以把需要巨大算力的工作负载放到公有云，而将不需要的、负载非常稳定的工作留在本地。你不必全都迁移，每种情况都不同，但你必须投入时间去重构和重塑数据与应用，使其符合云环境，无论最终是在私有云还是公有云。

The new data sets we have, we're going to reduce the operating cost, the actual operating cost of running something by 20%, 30% or 40% and make it accessible to machine learning and stuff like that because we can do machine learning in our own data centers or in the public cloud. So that's a journey. I tell people you really want to do is to constantly innovate. A lot of stuff is already in the cloud, already has AI/ML. And some of the stuff you may never do.

借助新的数据集，我们将把运行某些系统的实际运营成本降低 20%、30% 甚至 40%，并让它们能够使用机器学习等技术，因为我们既可以在自有数据中心，也可以在公有云中进行机器学习。这是一段旅程。我告诉人们，真正需要做的是持续创新。许多系统已经迁移至云端，并已具备 AI/ML 功能；也有些系统你可能永远不会迁移。

Like there's certain mainframe applications, you're going to run it just that way. And you retire it one day or build a new cloud-eligible one. But a lot of it -- the stuff from \[indiscernible] already been put in the cloud. So you may not change the mainframe, but all the stuff with digital, compute, AI/ML, you're slowly moving to cloud, too. So I'd say innovate, but it's a slog. It's like hard work to get all the stuff there. You could talk to any company that does it, and -- but you need to do it. And if you don't do it right, you'll be at a huge disadvantage down the road.

例如某些大型主机应用，你只能按原样运行，日后再淘汰它，或重写一个符合云要求的新版本。但很多东西——来自\[无法辨识]的那些部分——早已迁移到云端。你也许不会改动主机系统，但所有与数字化、计算、AI/ML 相关的内容，你也在慢慢迁往云端。所以我想说，要创新，但这是一场苦战，把所有东西都迁入云端非常辛苦。任何一家这么做的公司都会告诉你这一点——然而你必须去做。如果做不到位，未来你将处于巨大劣势。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

How hard is it for smaller banks to compete? And as we've seen the consolidation of certain products like mortgages and credit cards, do you see deposits getting consolidated into the hands of bigger banks and other products as well? And is there still a role for smaller banks?

规模较小的银行竞争有多困难？随着抵押贷款、信用卡等某些产品的集中，你是否看到存款也将进一步集中到大型银行手中，以及其他产品也出现同样趋势？小型银行仍然有其角色吗？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Yes. Look, I think you guys see a lot of consolidation. And I think they need it. I mean I think you need to kind of scale. As you know, consolidation is really hard, social names and consolidating systems. And then you're going to have a lot of people, third parties who offer cloud-based type of benefits to smaller banks. So it isn't like they can't have them at all. They're going to get them from a third party. Some of those third parties -- \[ I'm not going to mention ] any names or stuff like that are ahead of others. Some of the banks are doing it, some don't.

是的。听着，我认为你们会看到大量并购。我觉得他们需要如此，也就是说需要实现规模。众所周知，并购非常困难，涉及品牌融合和系统整合。接着会有很多第三方为小型银行提供基于云的解决方案。因此，他们并非完全无法获得这些能力，而是从第三方获取。其中一些第三方——我就不点名了——领先于其他。部分银行在做，部分没有。

I always think a very well-run community bank, a regional bank can do well. It's just going to be very well run. You've got local knowledge and local people, local authority and they sit in the local boards and -- but they have to accommodate it too because clients do walk with their feet. They've got to offer some of these great services and products to their clients, too. And it's not possible. I mean, if you look at the world out there, all these fintech companies, if you combine them all, have 400 million, 500 million, 600 million accounts in America. There are only 150 million households. So you would take them all. They've got -- they're -- so JPMorgan may have 66 million, we may have all these deposits, but there's these people chipping away at every single piece of it. We can't all win. It's not possible.

我始终认为，一家管理良好的社区银行或区域银行仍能表现出色，前提是管理必须到位。你拥有本地知识、本地员工、本地授权，董事会也在当地——但他们也必须作出调整，因为客户会用脚投票。他们也得向客户提供这些优质的服务和产品。这并非不可能。看看外部世界，所有金融科技公司加起来，在美国拥有 4 亿、5 亿、甚至 6 亿个账户，而全美只有 1.5 亿户家庭——可见账户重复率极高。JPMorgan 可能拥有 6600 万户、庞大存款，但有人在各个细分领域蚕食份额。我们不可能全部获胜，这是不可能的。

And what you see now is like -- and you see people like fintechs are deepening. Some -- it's very easy to cherry pick. So I remember when SoFi was first coming out and said, "Oh student loans, the price was 1 -- was the same for everybody, but I'll take your student loan if you went to Harvard, Princeton or Yale." Little did they know how little that meant. But seriously, they were just cherry picking credit, that's \[ happening in life ]. Now they want your investment account, your checking account, your debit account, your this account. That means they have to compete with us, too. That's a whole different ball game for them, and we'll see. Some will do it well and some won't.

你现在看到的是——金融科技公司正在深化业务。有些公司很容易“挑肥拣瘦”。我记得 SoFi 刚起步时说：“学生贷款对所有人利率都一样，但如果你来自哈佛、普林斯顿或耶鲁，我就买你的贷款。”他们并不知道这一点多么微不足道。但说真的，他们在筛选信用，这种情况现实中一直存在。现在他们想要你的投资账户、支票账户、借记账户、这个账户、那个账户。这意味着他们也必须与我们竞争，对他们而言完全是另一番战场；成败且看。有的会做得好，有的不会。

I think Square has done a great job and a whole bunch of different stuff. But then is if they charge customers to take your money out, their revenue stream is charging you 1.5% to take your money out. We don't charge you to take your money out or put it in. So we have huge competitive advantages. And I have enormous respect for them. I'm not sure that's -- how sustainable that model is. Some of it, they're building so much stuff so quickly. They're just -- they're out there, bobbing and weaving and they're very good at it. My hat's off to them.

我认为 Square 在多项业务上表现出色。但如果他们向客户收取提现费用，他们的营收来源就是向你收取 1.5% 的提现费。我们不会向你收取存取款费用，所以我们拥有巨大竞争优势。我非常尊重他们。但我不确定这种模式的可持续性。有些公司正在以极快速度打造大量功能，他们在外动作灵活、身手矫健，而且确实很擅长。我向他们脱帽致敬。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

Great. We have a couple of minutes left. A few questions here from the audience. The first one was, could you talk broadly about how you're thinking about your business and footprint in Asia over the next few years? And what kind of growth investments you're making there?

很好。我们还剩几分钟。观众有几个问题。第一个是：能否大致谈谈你们未来几年在亚洲的业务和布局，以及在那里进行的增长投资？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

It's the same. And I think we put some charts up there. In commercial banking, we've opened offices in Asia to do more, think of not middle market, but corporate type of banking businesses, which I would put in the low-risk category, by the way, but it's country by country. There are plans for every country out there, and we want a certain share of corporate business and the financial institutions business and payments businesses and trading businesses. It is country by country. Obviously, the big one is China and India, the big ones, Greater China and India. So our plans in China are pretty much the same. We've got our full licenses. We're growing carefully. And same with India, though it's hard to do business in India too. So nothing much changed. We're just continuing to grow there. And I think a huge opportunity over time. And obviously, Asia is going to grow faster than the rest of the world for quite a while.

情况依旧。我想我们展示过一些图表。在商业银行业务方面，我们已在亚洲开设办事处，开展更多——不是针对中端市场，而是更偏向企业级的银行业务，我认为风险相对较低，但要逐国推进。我们对每个国家都有计划，希望在企业业务、金融机构业务、支付业务和交易业务中取得一定份额。必须按国家执行。显然，最大的市场是中国和印度——更确切说是大中华区和印度。我们在中国的计划基本保持不变，已获得全部牌照，正在谨慎扩张。印度也是如此，尽管在印度做生意也很难。因此变化不大，我们只是继续在那里增长。我认为从长远看存在巨大机遇，显然，亚洲在相当长一段时间内的增速将快于世界其他地区。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

Just from an ESG perspective, you were Chairman of the Business Roundtable a few years ago and kind of led the effort to reconceptualize corporation \[indiscernible] serving all stakeholders. Are banks -- how are banks doing on that? How is JPMorgan doing on that?

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

从 ESG 的角度看，几年前您曾担任商业圆桌会议（Business Roundtable）主席，带头推动重新构想公司为所有利益相关者服务。银行在这方面表现如何？摩根大通在这方面表现如何？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

First of all just I am a red-blooded free market capitalist, and I'm not woke. And I think people are mistaking the shareholder stakeholder capitalism thing for being woke. All we basically said for stakeholder capitalism is when you say to me -- when you say the America -- forget you all, okay? There's 325 million Americans. And when you say shareholder value and fiduciary responsibility, they hear short-term profit taking at the expense of employees or customers. And fiduciary, they hear white shoe, high-paid lawyers protecting CEOs. All we're saying is when we wake up in the morning, what we give a s\*\*\* about is serving customers, earning their respect, earning their repeat business. And we do that through employees, and that's what we do. And obviously, we want to earn shareholder value and stuff like that. So it's just why should we get buttonholed into a stupid legal debate. So all your general counsels, you're a fiduciary, \[ you buy -- ] yes, so what? Explain to the American public what you do and why you do it.

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

首先，我是个热血的自由市场资本主义者，我可不是什么“觉醒”人士。我认为人们把股东—利益相关者资本主义误当成了“觉醒”。所谓利益相关者资本主义，我们的基本意思是——当你们对我、对美国公众（全美 3.25 亿人）谈到“股东价值”和“受托责任”时，他们听到的是牺牲员工或客户、追求短期利润；而“受托责任”让他们联想到那些穿白鞋、领高薪的律师在保护 CEO。我们想表达的是，每天早上醒来，我们真正关心的是服务客户、赢得他们的尊重和回头客；我们通过员工来做到这一点，这就是我们的工作。当然，我们也要为股东创造价值等等。那么为什么要被逼进一场愚蠢的法律争论？所以，各位总法律顾问会说：你是受托人，[你买——]是，又怎样？向美国公众解释你们在做什么，以及为什么这么做。

And of course, and when we do things like climate, we're quite serious about climate. I don't think America is getting climate right. I think the chance of us getting it right is virtually 0. I don't think we remotely understand the complexity of this. And we can't turn on electricity from hydroelectric power much less, and then we're going to reduce oil and gas, which is going to cause more CO2. And we're just -- we're not getting it right because it's an uncoordinated, we're confused between hugging trees and yelling lending and it's just way off base. There's no -- we need real leadership in this area, and we're not getting it and so -- and then other stuff.

当然，在气候议题上我们也十分认真。我认为美国在气候问题上并没有做对，要真正做对的几率几乎为零。我觉得我们根本没有理解其中的复杂性。我们连水电都开不了，更别提其他了；然后还要减少石油和天然气使用，结果只会排放更多 CO₂。我们之所以没做对，是因为缺乏协调；我们在“抱树”和“喊停贷款”之间糊里糊涂，完全跑偏。我们需要真正的领导力，但目前并没有得到。

We -- like we want, if you're an employee of ours and whether you're a black or white, Jewish or Muslim, Indian, Asian, disabled, LGBT+, we want you to be treated with respect in our company. We want to give you opportunity. That's not woke. That's what I want for my -- what we want for you, that you can contribute to the company to the best of your ability.

我们希望，如果你是我们的员工，无论你是黑人还是白人、犹太人还是穆斯林、印度裔、亚裔、残障人士或 LGBT+ 群体，都能在公司受到尊重，并获得机会。这不是“觉醒”，而是我们对你的期望——让你能够充分发挥才能，为公司贡献最大价值。

So any Senator or Congress that says that's woke, they're not thinking clearly because I want to win in the marketplace. I want the best employees, I want happy employees. And so -- but some of the other stuff we don't get involved in, it is woke. I don't think people should get involved in some of these issues where it's far more detailed than you think and people just getting jazzed up about you got to do this, you got to -- no, you don't. No, you don't. So I agree with it. I think some people are overdoing it. And I think like I mentioned the hurricane part, that hurricane is the higher oil prices, which I think are in the cards.

因此，任何参议员或众议员如果称这为“觉醒”，那就是没想清楚，因为我想在市场上获胜。我想要最优秀、最快乐的员工。不过，我们不参与的某些议题，才是真正的“觉醒”。我认为人们不该贸然介入这些远比想象中复杂的问题；如今有人鼓噪“你必须这样做、那样做”——其实并不需要。我同意适度行动，但有人确实做得过头了。就像我提到的“飓风”隐喻——那场飓风就是油价将大幅上涨，我认为这已在所难免。

And I just -- I'm watching that train coming down the tracks, and I'm very sad about it. I don't know -- I wake up every morning, I'm quite sad about it.

我只能说，我看到那列火车正朝我们驶来，这让我非常难过。每天早上醒来，我都深感忧虑。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

Just this last question in terms of succession, succession planning. It sounds like you're going to be in the seat as a leader at JPMorgan Chase for 4 plus more years. How is the Board using that time to prepare your succession?

最后一个问题，关于继任和继任规划。听起来您将在摩根大通继续担任领导职务超过四年。董事会将如何利用这段时间为您的继任做准备？

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

So it's totally -- remember, it's totally up to the Board. And so whatever -- anything I say, it's up to the Board. I have 10 Board members who decide every day whether they want me in this job or not. I'm an employee at will, they can fire me tomorrow.

这完全——记住，完全取决于董事会。因此，无论我说什么，最终都得董事会拍板。我有十位董事每天都在决定是否仍要我担任这一职务。我是随时可被解雇的员工，他们明天就能把我炒掉。

I think when I went up to Fidelity and Wellington, I explained to them that the most important thing, and I think sometimes the press misses this, too, is does the Board meet without the Chairman and CEO all the time? Not is there a Chairman and CEO, the lead director has all the authority of a Chairman. They meet every single time since I got to Bank One, it's not required by law. Now it's required, I think, once a year under Dodd-Frank. But I have insisted every single time they hear -- they get full access to the management team, full access to everything. They go and play golf with them. They go have lunch with them. They meet, not just my direct report, they know them well, but they meet the next layers down, and they meet every single time without me and they have since 2000. And they have an open conversation about what's working, what's not working, what feedback should we give Jamie, what we are we happy with, we're not happy with, and that's what they do. That is the most important thing. And while I'm making a pitch to you all, you -- corporate America has a problem, okay?

我去富达和惠灵顿拜访时曾向他们说明，最重要的一点——媒体有时也忽略了——是董事会是否经常在没有董事长兼CEO在场的情况下开会？关键不在于是否设有董事长兼CEO，首席独立董事拥有与董事长同等的权力。自我加入 Bank One 起，他们每次都这么做，法律并未强制要求。如今《多德-弗兰克法》大概要求每年至少一次，但我坚持每次都让董事们充分接触管理层、获取所有信息；他们一起打高尔夫、共进午餐，不只见我的直接下属，还认识下一层管理者，而且自 2000 年以来每次会议都在没有我出席的情况下召开，坦诚讨论运作良好与不佳之处、该给 Jamie 什么反馈、满意与不满之处——这才是最重要的事情。同时，我也想提醒大家，美国企业界确实存在问题。

And the problem is that I think investors have to do this, I can't. So think of asset managers. We've gone from 7,200 public companies in 1996 and this may be a real problem. I'm begging you to pay attention to it when you go home, okay? We've got 72,000 \[indiscernible] like 4,200. Now that number should have gone from 7,000 to 14,000. And what happened? Well, private equity, I'm only talking about the big ones because I can't even add up all the smaller ones has gone -- I'm not against private equity. I'm just pointing out some facts, has gone from only 1,000 to 10,000 companies. And all this other capital is moving private.

问题在于，这件事得由投资者来做，而不是我。想想资产管理公司。1996 年上市公司有 7,200 家，而现在只剩约 4,200 家，这可能是个大问题。我恳请各位回去后关注这一点。按理数字本应从 7,000 增长到 14,000。究竟发生了什么？私募股权从 1,000 家投资企业飙升到 10,000 家——我并不反对私募，只是在陈述事实——大量资本正转向非公开市场。

I'm not against private capital, I'm not against private equity. I'm just wondering why that's taking place, and you think some of you would be thinking about what do you want in America. You want active public markets, and we're driving companies out of the public markets because of litigation, regulation, press, cookie cutter governance, oh, you got to have this amount of directors and this amount of that. Who said so? What's wrong with the free market system where you see companies -- I mean, what's independent mean? Warren Buffett would say independence is independent-minded. There's not anything else. If you rely on fees, you're not independent. So we -- but private equity, management team is focused on the business. Board's focused on the business. They're not -- they come up with the comm schemes, they think work the best for that business. They don't have to deal with Glass-Lewis and ISS, which shame on you any of you -- if that's how you vote, shame on you.

我不反对私人资本，也不反对私募股权。我只是想知道为何会出现这种情况；你们当中有人应当思考，美国究竟需要什么？你们想要活跃的公开市场，而我们却因诉讼、监管、媒体以及千篇一律的治理规则——比如必须有多少董事等——把公司逼出公开市场。谁规定的？自由市场有什么不对？所谓独立究竟意味着什么？沃伦·巴菲特说，独立就是独立思考，仅此而已；如果你靠收费维生，就不独立。私募股权下，管理层专注业务，董事会也专注业务；他们自行设计最适合企业的薪酬方案，无需应付 Glass-Lewis 和 ISS。如果你们投票只看他们的建议，真该感到羞愧。

I mean seriously, you should be embarrassed, okay? And do your own homework. And this s\*\*\* I hear from people about, well, you know there's too many -- no there's not. If you own 100 companies, the average proxy has got that 6, that's 600, there may be 10 to matter. And like even that, so we talk to our investors and we send up -- I don't do it, the lead director does and stuff like that. So the lead director goes up there, and they talk to a 27-year-old compliance officer, who writes a memo and then votes Glass Lewis.

说真的，你们应该感到羞愧，自己做功课。还有人说“公司太多了”——根本不是。如果你持有 100 家公司，平均每份委托书 6 项，那是 600 项事务，真正重要的也许只有 10 项。可我们派首席独立董事与投资者沟通，结果他却只和一名 27 岁的合规员对话，那人写份备忘录便照 Glass Lewis 投票。

I think if we send up a director of ours, who's a decision maker, they should sit with someone who's a decision-maker. And you should be able to say to that person on the spot, you got my vote or you don't. I suppose we have to wait till the proxy day.

如果我们派出的董事是决策者，就该与真正的决策者对等交流，当场就能告诉对方“我支持”或“我反对”，而不是非等到正式投票日。

And I just think we're just slowly destroying corporate America for all the wrong reasons. And if you don't fix it folks, you better go private too because no public companies -- I don't think it's good for America because I think our active transparent markets are great. They have been engines -- with all the flaws we've had, they've been one of the engines here. So I'm begging you, I'm begging you, don't allow this to happen with no forethought. Figure out what it's going to look like in 10 years and see if that's acceptable because in my view, it's not.

我认为我们正因各种错误原因慢慢摧毁美国企业。如果大家不去修复，那最好也私有化，因为不会再有公共公司——这对美国并不好；活跃而透明的市场极其重要，尽管有缺陷，却一直是经济引擎之一。我恳求你们、恳求你们，不要让这种情况毫无预见地发生。想想十年后会是什么样子，看那是否能接受；在我看来，不能。

John McDonald Bernstein Autonomous LLP

约翰·麦克唐纳伯恩斯坦 Autonomous LLP

Jamie, thanks so much for joining us today. We appreciate it.

Jamie，非常感谢您今日的参与，我们十分感激。

James Dimon Chairman & CEO

詹姆斯·戴蒙董事长兼首席执行官

Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

非常感谢，荣幸之至。

2022-06-01 James Dimon.Bernstein 38th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

2022-06-01 James Dimon.Bernstein 38th Annual Strategic Decisions Conference

热门主题

Recent Articles

1989-02-28 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders

1991-03-01 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders

1997-05-05 Warren Buffett.Share of mind

2026-02-15 Gemini.Forced Errors/Institutional Imperative/Unforced Errors

2016-02-27 Warren Buffett.Auto insurance