Unknown Analyst
Next, get cozy as we head back to New York for a fireside chat led by my colleague, Larry Wilkinson. Larry, over to you.
未知分析师
接下来，请放松，我们将返回纽约，由我的同事拉里·威尔金森主持炉边谈话。拉里，交给你。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
Great. \[ Dennis ], thank you. Hi. I'm Larry Wilkinson, and I head up our non-life insurance ratings practice at S\&P Global. And turning to our next session, I'd like to point out that while prospects for the property and casualty industry have been generally favorable over the last several years, the outlook for the intermediate term is fraught with a number of key risks. Geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, climate change and increased recession risks are but a few of the emerged risks that complicate the development of strategy and its successful execution in the current environment.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
太好了。\[丹尼斯]，谢谢你。大家好，我是拉里·威尔金森，负责标普全球的非寿险评级业务。开始下一场讨论之前，我想指出，虽然过去几年财产险和意外险行业前景总体利好，但中期展望却充满多重关键风险。地缘政治不确定性、通胀、气候变化以及上升的衰退风险，只是当前环境中使战略制定与成功执行更加复杂的已显现风险中的几项。
Joining us today to provide his perspective on how to navigate these challenging times is Evan Greenberg, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Chubb. While he needs no introduction to this audience, I would highlight that Evan's insights come from over 45 years of experience in the industry with both Chubb and AIG. Evan, I want to thank you for joining us today.
今天与我们一起分享如何在充满挑战的时期掌舵的见解的是Chubb董事长兼首席执行官埃文·格林伯格。无需多作介绍，埃文在Chubb和 AIG 拥有逾 45 年的行业经验，其洞见由此而来。埃文，非常感谢你今天的到来。
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
Larry, it's good to be with you, and great to see you.
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
拉里，很高兴与你相聚，也很高兴见到你。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
Okay. Fantastic. I guess just in terms of kicking us off today, I'd like to maybe start with your take on the macroeconomic backdrop. This year, in your Chairman's letter, you kind of kicked off the year with a note of optimism about 2022. And I guess as I kind of look forward a little bit, over the last 2 or 3 months, we've seen a couple of uncertainties hit the picture in terms of the overall macro economy. Could you talk about some of the challenges that you're seeing?
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
好的，太棒了。今天的讨论我想先从宏观经济背景说起。今年你的董事长致股东信以对 2022 年的乐观开篇。但展望未来，在过去两三个月里，宏观经济整体已出现几项新的不确定性。能否谈谈你所看到的一些挑战？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
Yes. I think that the themes haven't changed dramatically, but I think the implications have maybe more significantly. The war in Ukraine, a war on European soil, the first that we have seen in 70 years really and -- is shocking to the world and it has many implications. Inflation, I'll come back to that.
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。我认为主题并未发生巨大变化，但其影响或许更为深远。乌克兰战争——欧洲大陆 70 年来首次爆发的战争——震惊全球，并带来多重影响。通胀问题，我稍后再谈。
But food and energy security, when I look forward, are going to be a great cause of geopolitical instability. The energy shortages that are created as a result of cutting off Russian energy supply, that means the developed world is going to take the vast majority of energy and they're going to take away from developing countries. They're going to suffer greatly. Food and security, that's going to be a growing issue and we're only at the beginning of that. And we're going to feel those kinds of energy and food shortages that are going to create, in my mind, great geopolitical and political instability, and we're going to feel more of it right here in the United States as well.
展望未来，粮食和能源安全将成为地缘政治不稳定的重要根源。切断俄罗斯能源供应导致的能源短缺意味着发达国家将抢占绝大多数能源，发展中国家因此被剥夺资源，将遭受重大损失。粮食不安全也将日益严重，我们只是刚刚起步。我认为，这类能源与粮食短缺将引发严重的地缘政治和政治动荡，美国本土也将感受到更多冲击。
And that leads to inflation generally. It is both supply and demand related. I've said for quite some time for almost 2 years now that the Fed is behind the curve and not recognizing. We are moving towards a period, I think, of stagflation, potential stagflation is -- the risk of that is much higher than it has been. And inflation is going to be more stubborn and more persistent. And you add to that Ukraine-Russia has for gasoline on an already difficult supply environment. On the other hand, we have China and its COVID policies have deeply impacted supply chain and supply. And that's going to persist for a period of time, I'm afraid so. I think that we're going to have more of an inflation problem and the Fed is going to be more aggressive in its actions, and that is going to create more volatility in markets, et cetera.
这最终导致普遍性通胀，既受供给也受需求影响。我早在近两年前就一直指出，美联储落后于形势且未能意识到问题。我认为我们正步入滞胀期，滞胀的潜在风险远高于过去。通胀将更加顽固、持久。乌俄冲突使本已紧张的供应环境在汽油方面雪上加霜；另一方面，中国及其疫情政策对供应链与供给造成深刻影响，并且恐将持续一段时间。我认为通胀问题将更加突出，美联储将采取更激进行动，这将导致市场等方面更大的波动性。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. Thanks for that perspective, Evan. And then I guess turning your attention to the underwriting front. You kind of laid out kind of a picture of the economy, some of the challenges that are ahead. I guess we've seen over the last couple of years, industry profitability has done well despite some of the challenges posed by COVID. But given kind of just more uncertain economic backdrop, how does that affect your strategy in terms of underwriting some of the risks that you're willing to undertake?
好的，感谢你提供的观点，埃文。接下来我想把注意力转向承保方面。你刚才描绘了经济图景以及前方的一些挑战。过去几年，即便面临新冠疫情带来的种种困难，行业的盈利表现依然不错。但在目前更加不确定的宏观环境下，这将如何影响你们在承保愿意承担的风险方面的策略？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
Well, I think too front and center to begin with, inflation and how insurance companies actually go from recognition that inflation is elevated in terms of loss costs and values or exposures that we insure and taking that from recognition into action and doing it on a mobile basis is where the rubber really meets the road and not falling behind in exposure and price recognition and in managing on the claims side. That has been a major task at Chubb to not just be crisp about data, but the cycle of data to action and that we do it more quickly. And in an inflationary environment, you have to be very, very quick. Things will get behind you pretty quickly.
首先摆在最前面的就是通胀，以及保险公司如何在认识到索赔成本、标的价值和承保风险因通胀而上升之后，迅速将这种认识转化为行动，并以机动的方式落实——真正的考验就在于此，不能在风险敞口与定价识别以及理赔管理上落后一步。这一直是 Chubb 的一项重大任务，不仅要做到数据清晰，还要让数据到行动的循环更快捷。在通胀环境中，你必须反应极快，否则很快就会被甩在后面。
Secondly, the geopolitical risk I just talked about or a large writer of trade credit and political risk and it is in less developed countries, and there's going to be greater instability because of energy and food and security.
其次，是我刚才提到的地缘政治风险——我们是贸易信用和政治风险的大型承保方，业务往往位于欠发达国家；由于能源、粮食和安全问题，那里的不稳定性将进一步加剧。
And then on the liability side of the business, loss costs are not benign. As courts open up, there is more of a surge in claims. And claims inflation on the liability side as a result of so-called social inflation, which is a combination of things like litigation funding, populism that rears its head in the courtroom where they want to redistribute wealth and a negative view of corporations and what should be their responsibility, that is finding its way in the loss cost environment.
再说到责任险业务，其损失成本也并不温和。随着法院全面复工，索赔激增。所谓“社会通胀”导致的责任索赔通胀——包括诉讼资助、在法庭上抬头的民粹主义倾向（旨在重新分配财富）以及公众对企业及其责任的负面看法——正逐步渗入损失成本环境。
And looking ahead there, I'm concerned when it comes to ESG-type issues, especially around climate change right now, and directors and officers' liability. When I think about greenwashing, every company that is declaring themselves that they're going to be -- the company is going to be net zero, that sounds great in the beginning. But you're going to have to disclose very quickly all those companies what's your progress, how are you moving along in achieving that? And if you -- and if it's just vague words, there are going to be a lot of shareholder suits because companies are overpromising.
展望未来，我对 ESG 相关议题（尤其是气候变化）及董监事责任险感到担忧。谈到“漂绿”，凡是宣称自身将实现净零排放的企业，开头听上去都很美好，但这些公司很快就必须披露进展：你们走到哪一步、如何落实？如果只是模糊的口号，就会引来大量股东诉讼，因为企业做出了过度承诺。
I just think about it on the insurance side, where insurance companies are declaring net zero, which means that you're underwriting portfolios, you'll know the carbon footprint of all your insurance collectively globally. And therefore, you'll be able to show how it's going down and ultimately to zero. The tools don't exist today. And at some point, that's going to be called out in a suit. So that is on our minds as well.
同样在保险业，若一家保险公司宣称净零排放，就意味着你必须了解全球整体承保组合的碳足迹，并能够展示其逐步下降直至归零的路径。然而目前并无可用工具来做到这一点，将来某个时刻这一缺口可能会在诉讼中被指出。这也令我们颇为关注。
And then finally, climate change itself. And not just the protections we provide and being able to price and manage exposures in a more precise way as volatility of weather increases from all kinds of perils all year long, there are no cat season any longer. Not just the ability to do that but to then use it truly to provide greater services and resilience to customers and to aid the society as is it exposed while it moves to net zero, I think, is very important.
最后要谈的是气候变化本身。随着全年各种灾害导致的气象波动加剧——如今已不存在所谓的“台风季”——我们不仅要通过更精确的定价和风险管理来提供保障，还应借此为客户提供更完善的服务和韧性，并在社会迈向净零的过程中发挥支援作用，我认为这十分重要。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
Okay. And in your answer just now, you touched a little bit on geopolitical risk. And so one of the things that's interesting is that over the last 2 to 3 decades, we saw this great move towards increasing cooperation globally and globalization. And it feels like recent events and some of the recent trends have suggested maybe it might be on the dawn of a new multipolar world order. And I guess thinking through that, how does the emergence of kind of the new aeropolitical cooperation or challenges or some of the groupings that are starting to be created, how do you think about that in terms of how it fits your strategy as well as your operations?
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
好的。刚才的回答中您提到了地缘政治风险。过去二三十年，我们目睹全球合作和全球化的大幅推进，但近期事件及趋势似乎预示着一个新的多极世界秩序的曙光。请谈谈这些新出现的地缘政治合作或挑战以及正在形成的各种阵营，会如何影响贵公司的战略和运营？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
Yes. Look, the world is moving more multipolar and coalesce more around the United States on one hand and China on the other hand that each represent different models of governance, different values, different cultural histories that inform their political construct. One, more centralized, more authoritarian; other, democracy.
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
是的。世界正走向多极化，一极围绕美国，另一极围绕中国，两者分别代表不同的治理模式、价值观和文化历史：一方更集中、更威权，另一方则是民主。
Globalization, on the other hand, has -- and over the last 70 years, liberalization of trade and globalization has lifted more people out of poverty and created more wealth. As they became more market-oriented, the rules phased than any other system or period of time in human history. And that notion should not be easily dismissed even as we break down maybe into more multipolar from a political point of view and a security point of view and being able to keep trade open because it's in the national interest of all countries. China wants peace and prosperity for its people. United States wants peace and prosperity, the Europeans, too, et cetera. And an ability to maintain open trade is so fundamental to that. Inflation and the cost of goods is related to globalization.
另一方面，在过去 70 年里，贸易自由化与全球化使更多人摆脱贫困、创造更多财富，随着国家日益市场化，其成效胜过人类历史上任何其他体制或时期。即便政治与安全格局可能走向多极，我们也不应轻易否定这一理念；维持开放贸易符合所有国家的根本利益。中国希望国泰民安，美国、欧洲也希望和平繁荣，而保持贸易畅通对这一目标至关重要。通胀和商品成本也与全球化息息相关。
So I wouldn't easily dismiss and put the nail in the coffin that globalization is going to disappear. We are in a period of -- if you have scarcity of energy and scarcity of food, you're going to have greater nationalism in energy and in food as an example. There are no -- there are the issues of rivalry between the polar leaders and the need to protect -- and to protect your technology where it's key to your security or to your economic -- the heights of your economic future. Those really ought to be managed in -- with high wall, small garden and not conflated to trade broadly.
因此，我不会轻率地断言全球化终结。当前能源和粮食短缺会导致在这些领域的民族主义加剧，两大极之间的竞争及对关键技术的防护也会升级——这些问题应以“高墙小园”的方式加以管理，而不应扩大到广泛贸易层面。
And on one hand, while there is the emotional push towards less globalization and you see that, on the other hand, I do think there are there are cooler heads that will emerge of how do we find this balance. And that's -- my first answer to you is as a global leader in our business and -- but engaged deeply as a multinational, we have a lot of experience and knowledge at this. And so we use our experience to help try to influence the debate in everyone's interest.
一方面，人们对去全球化情绪高涨；另一方面，理性声音也会出现，寻求平衡。对此，首先，作为业内全球领导者且深度参与跨国经营，我们积累了丰富经验，可利用这些经验在公共讨论中发挥建设性影响，兼顾各方利益。
And then secondly, we operate on the ground locally in all the countries where we are. It's not only manufacturing where we can move. Where we're invested, we're invested permanently and through good times and through bad times and through thick and thin. We're a global citizen. And when one part of the world has a little more instability and other part of the world is doing well, we think about that. And I'll wrap up with this. We think about that multipolar world. You describe it in those terms. But let's also remember, Asia is probably where more than 60% or 70% of the wealth creation that is going to take place over the next number of decades.
其次，我们在所在国家深耕本土，不像制造业那样可随意迁移；一旦投资即是长期承诺，无论景气与否，我们都是全球公民。当一地区动荡而另一地区向好时，我们会加以权衡。最后补充一点：在您所说的多极世界中，亚洲未来几十年可能贡献 60% 至 70% 的新增财富。
So while they'll have its own instability signature to it, it also presents great opportunity and you have to be able to navigate that. And finally, what that means is you can't just be in a company of insurance professionals. You have to raise a generation of internationalists who understand this and understand how to operate in these regions of the world.
因此，虽然该地区存在特有的不稳定性，也蕴含巨大机遇，关键在于如何驾驭。最终，这意味着公司不仅要有保险专业人才，还必须培养一代具备国际视野、了解这些区域并能在当地运营的人才。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
拉伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. And I guess one of the topics you raised up a little bit earlier on the macroeconomic front was the idea of social inflation. And when I look back to our panel last year at the conference, we posed the question to our CEO analysts, and they unanimously raised social inflation as the top concern they had over the intermediate term. Can you talk a little bit about developments on the social inflation front and kind of what the industry is doing to help combat some of those risks?
好的。您稍早在宏观经济层面提到的议题之一是“社会通胀”。回顾去年大会的小组讨论，我们向首席执行官级分析师提出同样的问题，他们一致认为社会通胀是中期最大的担忧。您能否谈谈社会通胀的最新动向，以及行业正采取哪些措施来应对相关风险？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
On one hand, I think we have to be mindful that the industry itself can only do so much to change the environment in terms of legislation or regulation. And whether I'm thinking about legislation that changes, laws that -- and state-by-state that helped to mitigate some of the liability-related issues we see or I think about regulation around things like litigation funding, the industry has a role to play, but we can only do so much because we're viewed -- on one hand, the trial bar is viewed a certain way, and the industry is viewed with suspicion when we come forth to suggest changes or the lobby for changes that somehow we're the bad guys and we just want to deny people money and feather our own nest.
首先我们必须认识到，行业自身在立法或监管层面能做的改变有限。无论是考虑逐州修订法律以缓解部分责任相关问题，还是针对诉讼融资等领域制定监管，保险业虽肩负一定职责，却力量有限：一方面，原告律师团有其固有形象；另一方面，当我们提出改革或游说修法时，外界常带着怀疑，认为我们是“坏人”，只是想拖欠赔付、肥己损人。
And so this becomes -- and this is an issue for corporate business, an industry -- corporate America in this case or if it's in the U.K. or Australia, the corporate community in those countries. And we -- along with them, this has to be important because this is a tax on business, it's a tax on society. We intermediate money. We don't print as an industry.
因此，这已不仅是保险业问题，而是企业界的共同难题——无论在美国、英国还是澳大利亚。当行业与企业界携手推进此事至关重要，因为社会通胀实质上是一种对企业、对社会的“隐形税”。作为保险行业，我们只是资金的中介者，并不会凭空“印钞”。
And I think efforts like the Center for Legal Reform with the Chamber of Commerce, where industry broadly pools resources along with the insurance industry to affect legislation state-by-state and the lobby federally though I'm not hopeful for federal legislation that would address the litigation environment, there are efforts state-by-state where you do see change, but it's slow and it's more modest.
我认为，美国商会旗下的法律改革中心等平台值得肯定，它们汇聚各行各业（包括保险业）的资源，在州一级推动立法改革，并在联邦层面进行游说——尽管我对联邦层面的整体改革不抱太大希望。逐州的改变正在发生，但步伐缓慢、幅度有限。
Litigation funding comes in a variety of guides, some that are more, I think, predatory and gambling-oriented. And then there are forms of litigation funding that are truly there to help those who are less fortunate have a means to have the day in court be heard. And then there are those who between -- who do it on a lending basis, not on an equity basis. And it's like payday lending than it ought to be regular.
诉讼融资形态多样：有些近乎掠夺、带有博彩性质；也有真正帮助弱势群体以依法诉讼的形式；还有介于其间、采用贷款而非入股方式的模式，性质更像“发薪日贷款”而非常规融资。
I think litigation funding has to be a job done in a more careful way. And efforts to promote both, on one hand, disclosure and transparency, particularly in the courtroom around who's funding and efforts around legislation or regulation that manages litigation funding, which is a growing investing class and a growing source of frequency and severity of suits, I think is an important effort as well.
诉讼融资需要更加谨慎地规范运作。推动披露与透明度、尤其在法庭上明确出资方身份，并通过立法或监管来管理这一日益壮大的投资类别（同时也是诉讼频率和金额持续攀升的源头），同样至关重要。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. Another topic that's come up quite a bit in our conversation with investors as well, it's been a frequent discussion with insurance executives as well as kind of the topic of climate change. And I guess as you think about the topic, how is the phenomenon of climate change influencing both your underwriting as well as your investment decisions for the company?
好。另一个在我们与投资者以及保险业高管对话中屡次被提及的议题是气候变化。请问，从贵公司的角度来看，气候变化现象如何同时影响你们的承保策略与投资决策？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
We have a clear view at this time of how we approach our responsibilities in climate change. On one hand, we -- and society has, I should say, competing priorities that are intention. On one hand, we have an obligation both personally and corporately to support the globe towards moving towards net zero. And I'll come back to that and all that we can do that way.
目前我们对履行气候责任的思路非常清晰。一方面，我必须指出，社会存在多重、相互冲突的优先事项。就个人和企业层面而言，我们都有义务支持全球向净零排放迈进；稍后我会谈到我们在这方面能够采取的全部举措。
On the other hand, we have an obligation to also support energy security and to support society in what is thought -- that's expected of an insurance company. And we're a regulated business, and we're expected to execute our responsibilities that way also. So we have both. Chubb has -- we have not declared ourselves to be net zero because we can't imagine as a company how we can actually achieve that. I said it a moment ago. That ability to measure the carbon footprint of our portfolio, we don't know how to do that. No company knows how to do that. So until we know how to do that and we see a realistic path to it, we can't really declare ourselves net zero.
另一方面，我们也必须维护能源安全并履行社会对保险公司的期望。作为受监管行业，我们同样要承担这方面的责任。因此，我们要兼顾二者。就Chubb而言，我们尚未宣布实现净零，因为我们无法设想公司应如何真正做到这一点——正如我刚才所说，要衡量我们整体承保组合的碳足迹，目前我们和其他任何公司都无从下手。在找到可行的衡量方法并看到切实可行的路径之前，我们无法宣称自己已实现净零。
On the other hand, our job to develop product, which we are actively doing, to support industries that are either helping companies and individuals reduce their carbon footprint or create new technologies that produce energy that are carbon-free, we are ensuring those activities and developing more technical ability to do that. In our investment portfolios and investment activities, we are investing in -- and more and more investing in new technologies that will advance carbon neutrality.
与此同时，我们正积极开发产品，支持那些帮助企业和个人降低碳足迹、或研发零碳能源新技术的行业；我们为这些活动提供保险，并在技术层面不断提升承保能力。在投资组合和投资活动中，我们也愈发侧重于投入能推动碳中和的新兴技术。
We're continuing, on the other hand, to ensure oil and gas because the world needs energy. And while we're not doing things like coal and tar sands that are -- where there's other options, and those have true sustainability issues with them and there were alternatives, we don't yet have great alternatives to gas and oil, and it would be irresponsible of us not to continue to ensure those in a responsible way. And we're trying to develop an ability to underwrite new projects in a scientific-based way where we can determine which ones are done in a more sustainable and responsible way and ensure those while we may not ensure those that are less of that way. So we're trying to find that balance.
另一方面，鉴于世界仍然需要能源，我们继续为油气领域提供保险。相比之下，煤炭和油砂等资源存在可替代性且真正的可持续性问题，我们已停止相关业务；但目前对油气尚无理想替代方案，如果我们不以负责任的方式为其承保也是不负责任的做法。我们正致力于建立科学的评估体系，对新项目进行可持续性评判——对符合更高可持续标准的项目予以承保，而对不符合者则可能不予承保，以此实现平衡。
And finally, our job is to provide more resilient related services to help people while they face carbon-related weather until the world transitions, and we're working on services in that regard. So it's pretty holistic and balanced.
最后，在全球能源转型期间，我们的职责还包括提供更多增强韧性的相关服务，帮助客户应对与碳排放相关的极端天气风险；这方面的服务我们也在积极推进。整体而言，我们采取的是全面且平衡的应对策略。
Lawrence Wilkinson S\&P Global Ratings Inc.
Okay. And so the next topic I want to go into is the area of digitization. I think every year at the conference, we try to spend a little bit of time thinking about kind of the future of insurance and how things are evolving within the business model. You've been pretty outspoken in the topic of digitization. I think you've suggested that it's not the future, but it's kind of the here and now. And so I'd like to get your thoughts in terms of the steps that you're undertaking to digitize your business model as well as kind of your priorities over the intermediate term.
好的，接下来我想探讨的话题是数字化。每年的会议上，我们都会抽时间思考保险业的未来以及商业模式的演变。您在数字化议题上一直直言不讳，我记得您说过这并非未来，而是当下。因此，我想了解您正在采取哪些措施来数字化公司的商业模式，并请谈谈您在中期的优先事项。
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
Yes. Look, I'll speak a little bit about that without giving this as a road map. But the tools and the technologies and the capabilities that the era of digitization has brought are here and now to improve how every insurance company does its business.
好的，我可以简单谈谈，但这不是一张路线图。数字化时代带来的工具、技术和能力已然存在，可以立刻用于改进每一家保险公司的运营方式。
And to varying degrees, companies that are embracing -- whether it is technology related to the customer experience, whether it is data that is related to the sales and the service experience of a customer and the ability to data scrape and to use data insights, both internal and external, to make it simple for a customer and seamless, whether it is used in the underwriting and the discrimination of one risk versus another and to gain better insight, whether it is data to be used and the tools and analytics around it in claims, so the claims insights. The whole holistic view of the process, all of that capability exists today and is evolving rapidly. And companies are embracing it to varying degrees and in varying ways, but it is the here and now.
在不同程度上，企业正在拥抱这些能力——无论是提升客户体验的技术，还是贯穿销售与服务的数据挖掘与洞见，帮助客户流程更简单、更无缝；无论是在承保中区分风险、获取更深洞察，还是利用数据、工具和分析改进理赔流程——对整个流程的全景掌控与相关能力如今全部具备，并在迅速演进。各家公司以不同方式、不同深度加以应用，但这都是当下进行时。
The skill sets that companies now must employ to take full advantage of what a digital age offers is the here and now. It's not simply underwriting, but it's engineering and it's data management and it's analytics as an example. And the ability to not change what we do, which is take risk and underwrite and manage risk but how we do it has the ability to be far more efficient and insightful and creative around the how we do.
要充分把握数字时代带来的机遇，企业现在就必须引入相应技能。这不仅关乎承保，还包括工程、数据管理和分析等。我们不改变“做什么”——承担、承保并管理风险——而是改变“如何做”；在方法层面，我们可以变得更高效、更具洞见，也更加富有创造性。
And the organization management changes that now can be employed in how we're organized and managed around those skill sets, along with traditional skill sets so the cycle of iteration is faster and more dynamic, all of that is today because we're in a digital age that actually allows and provides for the freedom to remake ourselves that way. And whether it is an insurtech that starts from scratch or it's a major incumbent insurer that recognizes, embraces and knows how to manage change within an organization, that age is here right now and it is happening. Actually, it's happening more rapidly in places like Asia and Latin America than it is in the United States, but it's happening in the United States just as rapidly. And we are iterating between digital businesses and how we transform existing businesses. And that's the future of this industry.
围绕这些新旧技能，企业的组织和管理方式也可随之调整，使迭代周期更快、更具活力；这一切之所以成为可能，正因为数字时代赋予了我们重塑自我的自由。无论是从零起步的保险科技公司，还是愿意并擅长在组织内部管理变革的传统大型险企，这个时代已经到来，并正在发生。事实上，在亚洲和拉丁美洲，这种变化甚至快于美国；不过美国也在快速推进。我们正不断迭代数字化业务，并将现有业务转型升级——这就是行业的未来。
Lawrence Wilkinson S&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. So with that, I want to maybe turn our attention to M&A. Just any general thoughts you have about the M&A environment.
好的。接下来，我想把注意力转向并购。请谈谈您对当前并购环境的总体看法。
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes, I'm not buying anything. That's a joke. The M&A environment, we're in a period where pricing is quite good. Companies overall in the industry are generally doing quite well. The cost of money is going up and will continue to go up, particularly as the Fed fights inflation and unwinds QE. And that is going to, on one hand, have an impact on valuations and bring them down in some areas. You've seen that in insurtechs, and that may drive some M&A on the margin.
是的，我什么都不买——开个玩笑。目前的并购环境下估值相当不错，整个行业的公司总体表现良好。资金成本正在上升，并且将在美联储对抗通胀、退出量化宽松的过程中持续上升。这一方面会影响估值，在某些领域拉低价格。你已经在保险科技公司身上看到这种情况，这也可能在边际上推动一些并购交易。
On the other hand, I think more M&A is going to take place. I can't predict among large companies, but amongst smaller and medium-sized companies, particularly as we come out of the cycle, the hard part of the cycle, over time, I have no doubt that will spur greater M&A as companies want to continue to grow and show strength. It's usually the way of the industry.
另一方面，我认为并购活动将会增加。我无法预测大型公司之间的并购，但在中小型公司层面，尤其是在本轮周期、在艰难阶段过后，企业为了持续增长、展示实力，势必会加大并购力度。这通常是行业惯例。
Lawrence Wilkinson S&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. And I think maybe the last question, I think we've got maybe about 1.5 minutes left, Evan. Just on the topic of private equity, so on day 1 of our conference, I think a lot of this -- there's a number of questions around the growing role of private equity in the insurance space. Any thoughts you have about this kind of emerging or just emerged phenomenon?
好的。我想最后一个问题，大约还剩一分钟半的时间，埃文。关于私募股权：在大会第一天，有不少关于私募股权在保险领域作用日益增强的问题。您如何看待这一新兴或刚刚凸显的现象？
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes. Private equity has always been active in the industry particularly around here and there at brokerage and intermediation and -- of our business. Private equity has been active for decades now. Just a lot more have become active in the last decade. But there's always been a presence.
好的。私募股权一直活跃于本行业，尤其是在经纪与中介等环节。事实上，几十年来私募股权资本都在参与，只是过去十年活跃程度显著提高，但其存在由来已久。
And private equity, to a degree, in the property and casualty business, the phenomenon that has, I think, been the greatest change over the last 10 years or so has been private equity's involvement in the life business, where they look for -- frankly, they look for captive assets, investors to be able to manage money and be able to manage and diversify the portfolios to more illiquid or to arbitrage between higher octane liquid and particularly debt-related instruments and the guarantees they provide on the front end.
就财产意外险而言，过去十年最大的变化或许是私募股权深入寿险领域。他们坦率地说在寻找“锁定资产”：通过管理资金，把资产组合更多配置到流动性较低或高收益的债务工具，以获取利差，同时在前端提供保单保证。
And that has been a phenomenon. I think some private equity is doing it in a more responsible way than others are. And we've been in a pretty benign period. And the only thing I hope is that as we go into what I do believe is going to be a period of greater volatility and more market stress than we have seen so far, I just hope it doesn't lead to trouble in some of these entities that are owned by private equity right now.
这已成为一种现象。我认为有些私募股权做得比其他机构更负责任。过去环境相对温和，但我预计未来将进入波动更大、市场压力更高的时期。我只希望届时不要给目前由私募股权控股的某些机构带来麻烦。
And then on the other hand, private capital, as we all know, has found its way into the underwriting side of the business, particularly in the catastrophe reinsurance side. And I do believe some of that capital that is in front of a return, particularly in a low-for-longer yield environment, has now had a taste of the truth behind models. And that models are only an organized way of thinking. They hardly provide absolute truth, and so buyer beware basis risk. And with climate change, I think they've gotten a lesson in that. And I've noticed of late, there just is not as much private capital attracted to that business and the growth of it has slowed down significantly. And by the way, the price they want looks pretty much like the price that the buy-and-hold reinsurers want for the same risk on both.
另一方面，我们都知道私募资本已进入承保领域，尤其是巨灾再保险市场。我相信，这些追逐收益的资本——特别是在长期低利率环境下——如今已领教到模型背后的“真相”：模型只是有条理的思考方式，并非绝对真理，买方需警惕基础风险。随着气候变化，这一点更为明显。我注意到，近期涌向该领域的私募资本减少，业务增速显著放缓；而且，他们要求的价格与长期持有型再保险公司对同一风险的报价几乎无异。
Lawrence Wilkinson S&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. Well, I think, Evan, that brings us to kind of the bottom of the hour here. And so I want to -- on behalf of S&P as well as the audience, I'd like to thank you for your time and sharing your insights today.
好的，埃文，我想这差不多到半小时的结束时间了。我谨代表标普及在座观众感谢您抽出宝贵时间并分享见解。
Evan G. Greenberg Chairman & CEO
埃文·G·格林伯格 董事长兼首席执行官
And thank you so much, Larry, and good to be here, and I wish you a great conference.
非常感谢你，拉里。很荣幸参加此次会议，祝你会议圆满成功。
Lawrence Wilkinson S&P Global Ratings Inc.
劳伦斯·威尔金森 标普全球评级公司
Okay. Thanks so much. And with that, I'll turn my attention to my colleague, Brian Suozzo, who will lead a panel with our fellow CEOs from the P&C industry.
好的，非常感谢。接下来，我将把会议交给我的同事布赖恩·索佐，他将与财产与意外险行业的多位首席执行官展开讨论。