2022-07-27 Chubb Limited (CB) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Ltd (NYSE:CB) Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call July 27, 2022 8:30 AM ET
丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2022 年第二季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2022 年 7 月 27 日上午 8:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Karen Beyer - SVP, IR
Karen Beyer - 投资关系高级副总裁
Evan Greenberg - Executive Chairman & CEO
埃文-格林伯格 - 执行主席兼首席执行官
Peter Enns - EVP & CFO
Peter Enns - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Timothy Boroughs - EVP & CIO, Chubb Group
Timothy Boroughs--丘博集团执行副总裁兼首席信息官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Michael Phillips - Morgan Stanley
迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 摩根士丹利
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities
Elyse Greenspan - 富国证券
Charles Peters - Raymond James & Associates
Alexander Scott - Goldman Sachs Group
亚历山大-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays Bank
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Meyer Shields - KBW
Operator 操作员
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Chubb Limited Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions].
女士们、先生们，大家好！欢迎参加丘博有限公司2022年第二季度财报电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音。[接线员指示]
For opening remarks and introduction, I would like to turn the call over to Karen Beyer. Please go ahead, ma'am.
请 Karen Beyer 致开幕词并作介绍。请说吧，女士。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you and welcome to our June 30, 2022, second quarter earnings conference call.
谢谢大家，欢迎参加我们 2022 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度收益电话会议。
Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com, for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括有关公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP measures -- financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）的财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账情况及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充中提供。
Now I would like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. And then we'll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后我们将接受大家的提问。我们管理团队的几位成员也将和我们一起回答你们的问题。
And now it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在我很荣幸地请埃文先生发言。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. We had a very strong quarter with record operating income driven by outstanding underwriting and investment results as well as double-digit, constant dollar P&C premium growth. Pricing was strong and exceeded loss costs in commercial lines, even as we increased the inflation factors we are using in our loss ratios in anticipation of future increases to loss cost.
早上好。我们这个季度表现非常强劲，运营收入创下了纪录，这得益于出色的承保和投资成果，以及P&C保费的两位数、按固定美元计算的增长。定价强劲，超过了商业险的损失成本，即使我们增加了我们正在使用的通胀因素，以预期未来损失成本的增加。
Meanwhile, growth in our consumer businesses continued to accelerate. Core operating income in the quarter was a record $1.8 billion or $4.20 per share, up 16% over prior year. For the year, we have produced over $8 per share, up nearly 31%.
与此同时，我们的消费业务继续加速增长。本季度的核心营业收入达到创纪录的 18 亿美元，即每股 4.20 美元，同比增长 16%。今年，我们的每股收益超过了 8 美元，增长了近 31%。
Our second quarter underwriting results were simply lights out: $1.4 billion of underwriting income, which was up 21% over prior, with a published combined ratio of 84%, both record results; catastrophe losses in the quarter were reasonably right -- light relative to our expected losses and virtually flat with last year's second quarter; the P&C current accident year combined ratio, excluding cats, was 83.5%, a nearly 2-point improvement over prior year.
我们第二季度的承保业绩非常出色：本季度的承保收入为 14 亿美元，比去年同期增长 21%，公布的综合比率为 84%，均创下历史新高；本季度的巨灾损失相当合理--相对于我们的预期损失较轻，与去年第二季度基本持平；不包括巨灾在内的本事故年度 P&C 综合比率为 83.5%，比去年提高了近 2 个百分点。
On the other side of the balance sheet, adjusted net investment income was a record $950 million for the quarter. As you know, we are predominantly a buy-and-hold fixed-income investor. Given rising interest rates and widening spreads, investment income is and will continue to rise.
在资产负债表的另一面，本季度调整后的净投资收入达到创纪录的 9.5 亿美元。众所周知，我们主要是买入并持有固定收益的投资者。鉴于利率上升和利差扩大，投资收益正在并将继续增加。
Our reinvestment rate is now averaging 4.7% against a portfolio yield of 3.2%. We've begun to thoughtfully and meaningfully accelerate the turnover of our portfolio in a targeted manner so that we can put cash to work more quickly at higher yields.
目前，我们的再投资率平均为 4.7%，而投资组合收益率为 3.2%。我们已经开始深思熟虑，有针对性地加快投资组合的周转速度，以便以更高的收益率更快地投入现金。
Spreads have moved to more historical averages among the various fixed-income classes. And the wind-down of QE could create more volatility and put more pressure on spreads in the future, which would benefit us. Peter will have more to say about these and other financial items.
各种固定收益类别之间的利差已接近历史平均水平。量化宽松政策的收尾可能会带来更大的波动，并在未来给利差带来更大的压力，这对我们有利。彼得将就这些及其他金融项目发表更多看法。
As you saw, we completed the acquisition of the Cigna business. As we had previously announced, the addition of Cigna's A&H and life business in Asia will be immediately accretive to core operating income per share and ROE. We have spent the past 6 to 8 months planning the integration to generate the revenue and earning power the combination of our businesses together in each country should achieve. We are off to a rapid start and are beginning to execute.
正如大家所看到的，我们完成了对 Cigna 业务的收购。正如我们之前所宣布的，Cigna 在亚洲新增的 A&H 和寿险业务将立即增加每股核心营业收入和 ROE。在过去的 6 至 8 个月里，我们一直在规划整合工作，以实现我们在各个国家的业务组合所应带来的收入和盈利能力。我们已迅速起步并开始执行。
Having just come back from Asia and met with the teams in Korea and Thailand, morale among our new and existing colleagues is quite high, and there's a great sense of optimism in what the future holds for our business in the region. Our Cigna colleagues who are joining us, starting leadership, are a great fit with Chubb and our culture.
刚从亚洲回来，与韩国和泰国的团队会面后，我们的新老同事士气高涨，对我们在该地区业务的未来充满乐观。即将加入我们的 Cigna 同事，从领导层开始，都非常适合丘博和我们的企业文化。
Now turning to growth in the rate environment. Total P&C premiums globally increased 9% in the quarter on a published basis or 11% in constant dollars, with commercial up 12% and consumer up 8%. Growth in the quarter remains broad based with contributions from virtually all commercial businesses globally, from large corporate to middle market to small, from traditional to specialty, and most all regions of the world. Commercial P&C premiums for North America were up 12.5% or 8.7% excluding agriculture. While in Overseas General, commercial lines grew 13% in constant dollar. And we then scrub 6 points of FX to arrive at the published result.
现在转向利率环境中的增长情况。全球P&C（财产和意外伤害）保费在本季度按公布基础增长了9%，或者按固定美元计算增长了11%，其中商业保险增长了12%，消费者保险增长了8%。本季度的增长仍然基础广泛，几乎所有全球商业业务都有贡献，从大型企业到中端市场再到小型企业，从传统到专业领域，以及世界上几乎所有地区。北美地区的商业P&C保费增长了12.5%，或者不包括农业则增长了8.7%。而在海外一般业务中，商业线按固定美元计算增长了13%。然后我们剔除了6个百分点的外汇影响，得出了公布的结果。
Agriculture premiums were up 44% in the quarter driven overwhelmingly by crop insurance growth. Commodity prices plus growth in market share produced this result. Looking forward, we will have a very strong crop insurance revenue growth in the third quarter as well.
本季度农业保险保费增长了 44%，主要得益于农作物保险的增长。商品价格加上市场份额的增长造就了这一结果。展望未来，我们在第三季度的农作物保险收入增长也将非常强劲。
In terms of the Commercial P&C rate environment, market conditions overall remained favorable, while the level of rate increases is moderating. The vast majority of our portfolio is achieving favorable risk-adjusted returns, and additional rate is therefore required primarily to keep pace with loss costs, which are hardly benign.
就商业财产险和责任险的费率环境而言，市场条件总体保持良好，而费率上调的幅度正在放缓。我们的绝大多数投资组合都取得了良好的风险调整后回报，因此需要提高费率，主要是为了跟上损失成本的步伐，而损失成本几乎没有良性增长。
The rate environment is naturally becoming a bit more competitive, particularly in certain casualty-related classes as more carriers seek to now grow. The market is reasonably disciplined, and I expect it will remain so given not only the specter of loss cost inflation, but the presence of other risk exposures such as climate change, the war in Ukraine, the litigation environment, cyber and the overall cost of reinsurance. Plenty of reminders to managements to get paid for the exposure underwritten.
随着越来越多的承保人寻求增长，费率环境自然变得更具竞争力，尤其是在某些与意外事故相关的险种上。鉴于损失成本通胀的阴影，以及气候变化、乌克兰战争、诉讼环境、网络和再保险总体成本等其他风险的存在，市场仍将保持合理的纪律性。这也提醒管理层，要为承保的风险敞口获得赔付。
In the quarter in North America, total Commercial P&C premiums, excluding agriculture, grew 8.7%. Growth this quarter in commercial lines was led by our Major Accounts & Specialty Division, which grew about 10.5%, followed by our middle market and small commercial business, which grew about 6.5%. Renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses was a very strong 101% on a premium basis.
在北美地区，本季度商业P&C保费总额（不包括农业）增长了8.7%。本季度商业线增长的领头羊是我们的主要账户和专业部门，增长了约10.5%，其次是我们的中端市场和小型企业业务，增长了约6.5%。我们零售商业业务的续保保留率在保费基础上非常强劲，达到了101%。
Overall rates increased in North America commercial lines 7%, while total pricing, which includes rate and exposure, increased over 10.5%. Remember, most but not all of the exposure change helps to ameliorate loss costs.
北美商业保险的整体费率上升了7%，而包括费率和敞口的总定价上升了超过10.5%。记住，大多数但不是所有的敞口变化有助于减轻损失成本。
In major accounts, which serves the largest companies in America, rates increased over 8% with pricing up 11.6%. General casualty rates were up nearly 13% and varied by class of casualty. While risk management-related comp in GL were up about 4%. Property rates were up around 9% and financial lines rates were up nearly 7.5%.
服务于美国最大公司的大客户保险费率增长超过 8%，定价增长 11.6%。一般意外险费率增长了近 13%，且因意外险类别而异。一般险中与风险管理相关的赔付率上升了约 4%。财产险费率上涨约 9%，金融险费率上涨近 7.5%。
In our E&S wholesale business, rates increased by just under 10% with pricing up over 14%. Property rates were up over 13%. Casualty was up 8.5% and financial lines rates were up 9.5%.
在我们的E&S批发业务中，费率增加了近10%，而定价上升了超过14%。财产费率上升了超过13%。意外伤害费率上升了8.5%，金融线费率上升了9.5%。
In our middle market business, rates increased nearly 7%, excluding comp, with pricing up about 9%. Rates were -- for property were up 5%. Casualty rates were up over 7%. And comp rates were down 4.3%. However, comp pricing was up over 5% when taking into account exposure change. And finally, financial lines rates were up over 10%.
在我们的中间市场业务中，费率增长了近 7%（不包括补偿），定价增长了约 9%。财产险费率增长了 5%。意外险费率增长超过 7%。赔偿费率下降了 4.3%。然而，如果考虑到风险变化，保险定价则上涨了 5%。最后，金融保险费率增长超过10%。
Turning to loss costs for a minute. We increased our loss cost trends in North America to 6.5% in anticipation of rising costs, meaning the actual trends we are observing at this time are lower. Again, the 6.5% is compared to pricing that was up over 10.5%.
下面谈谈损失成本。我们将北美地区的损失成本趋势上调至 6.5%，以应对成本上升的预期，这意味着我们目前观察到的实际趋势要低一些。同样，6.5%是与超过10.5%的定价相比。
In general, we are trending loss costs for short-tail classes close to 7%, up from 6.5% last quarter. In long-tail, excluding workers' comp, we're trending at 6.5%, up from 6%. And our first-dollar comp book is trending between 4% and 4.5%. These trend factors are contemplated in both our pricing and in our accident year loss picks in the quarter.
在短期内，我们的趋势损失成本接近7%，高于上个季度的6.5%。在长期业务中，不包括工人赔偿，我们的趋势是6.5%，高于6%。我们的第一美元赔偿账目趋势在4%到4.5%之间。这些趋势因素都考虑在本季度的定价和事故年度损失选择中。
Turning to our international general insurance operations. Retail Commercial P&C premiums grew 12.5% in constant dollars, while our London wholesale business grew over 10%. Retail commercial growth varied by region, with premiums up 14% in Asia Pacific, followed by growth of over 13% in Latin America. Our U.K. and Europe division was up nearly 12%. Internationally, like in the U.S., we continued to achieve improved rate-to-exposure across our commercial portfolio.
转向我们的国际一般保险业务。零售商业P&C保费以固定美元计算增长了12.5%，而我们的伦敦批发业务增长了超过10%。零售商业增长因地区而异，在亚太地区的保费增长了14%，其次是拉丁美洲增长了超过13%。我们的英国和欧洲部门增长了近12%。在国际上，就像在美国一样，我们继续在我们的商业组合中实现费率对敞口的改善。
In our international business, rates increased in the quarter about 9.5%, while we estimate pricing was up about 12%. Rates varied by class and by region as well as country within region. Outside North America, we are currently trending loss costs at about 6.5%, up from 4%, though that varies by class of business and country. Loss cost factors we are using for short-tail are now running over 7. And in long-tail, we're trending at about 6. Again, these factors are contemplated in both our pricing and in our accident year loss in the quarter and, like in North America, are higher than actual observed trends.
在国际业务方面，本季度费率增长了约 9.5%，而我们估计定价增长了约 12%。费率因级别、地区以及地区内的国家而异。在北美以外地区，我们目前的损失成本趋势约为 6.5%，高于之前的 4%，但因业务类别和国家而异。我们在短尾保险中使用的损失成本系数目前超过了 7%。同样，这些因素在我们的定价和本季度的事故年度损失中都有所考虑，与北美地区一样，高于实际观察到的趋势。
International consumer lines growth in the quarter continued to pick up momentum as premiums increased over 12%, though FX then scrubbed about 7.5 points off the growth. Premiums in our international A&H business grew over 12% in constant dollar, with Latin America up over 19% and Asia Pacific up 13%, while our international personal lines grew 12%.
本季度国际消费者保险业务继续保持增长势头，保费增长超过 12%，但外汇兑换使增长减少了约 7.5 个百分点。按固定汇率计算，我们的国际 A&H 业务保费增长超过 12%，其中拉丁美洲增长超过 19%，亚太地区增长 13%，而我们的国际个人业务增长了 12%。
Net premiums in our North America high net worth personal lines business were up 4.7% on the back of record new business activity. Our true high net worth client segment grew 12%, while overall retention was very strong at nearly 98%.
在创纪录的新业务活动支持下，北美高净值个人业务的净保费增长了 4.7%。我们真正的高净值客户部分增长了 12%，而总体保有率非常高，接近 98%。
In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of about 10%, while the homeowners loss cost trend is running about 10% as well.
在房主业务方面，我们实现了约 10%的定价，而房主损失成本趋势也是约 10%。
To sum it all up, we had simply an excellent quarter. And as I look ahead, I am mindful of the world and the conditions in which we operate, including inflation, the specter of recession, the war and energy and food security problems globally.
总而言之，我们度过了一个非常出色的季度。展望未来，我深知我们所处的世界和环境，包括通货膨胀、经济衰退的阴影、战争以及全球范围内的能源和食品安全问题。
With all that, we have a lot of broad-based momentum and earning power in our organization that gives me confidence. Commercial P&C growth and pricing are favorable, our consumer lines business growth is accelerating, our life company revenue and earnings will accelerate with the addition of the Cigna business in Asia. Asia is now a $7.5 billion region for our company. Our underwriting margins are excellent, and our investment income will grow nicely due to rising rates and strong cash flow. We are well positioned for continued excellent EPS growth well into the future.
当然，我们组织中有很多基础广泛的动力和盈利能力，这给了我信心。商业P&C增长和定价是有利的，我们的消费者业务增长正在加速，随着亚洲Cigna业务的增加，我们寿险公司的收入和收益将会加速增长。亚洲现在是我们公司的75亿美元区域。我们的承保利润率非常好，由于利率上升和强劲的现金流，我们的投资收入将会很好地增长。我们完全有能力在未来继续保持出色的EPS增长。
I'll turn the call over to Peter, and then we'll come back and take your questions.
我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Good morning, everyone. As you just heard from Evan, we had another excellent quarter. In addition to the record results, we ended the second quarter in a position of exceptional financial strength. Our strong underlying performance produced operating cash flow of $2.7 billion for the quarter and $5.2 billion for the first 6 months.
大家早上好。正如大家刚才从埃文（Evan）那里听到的，我们又取得了一个出色的季度。除了创纪录的业绩，我们在第二季度结束时还拥有非凡的财务实力。我们强劲的基本业绩为本季度带来了 27 亿美元的运营现金流，为前 6 个月带来了 52 亿美元的运营现金流。
Our balance sheet remains strong. We have $68 billion in total capital. We continue to remain extremely liquid with cash and short-term investments of $10.6 billion at quarter end or $5.2 billion after accounting for the cash that was paid on July 1 for the Cigna deal.
我们的资产负债表依然强劲。我们拥有 680 亿美元的总资本。我们继续保持极高的流动性，截至本季度末的现金和短期投资为 106 亿美元，计入 7 月 1 日为 Cigna 交易支付的现金后为 52 亿美元。
Among the capital-related actions in the quarter, we returned $1.5 billion to shareholders, including $1.1 billion in share repurchases and $348 million in dividends. Through the 6 months ended June 30, we have returned $2.8 billion to shareholders.
在本季度的资本相关行动中，我们向股东返还了 15 亿美元，其中包括 11 亿美元的股票回购和 3.48 亿美元的股息。截至 6 月 30 日的 6 个月内，我们已向股东返还 28 亿美元。
The current quarter included after-tax realized mark-to-market losses on our private and public equities of $489 million compared to gains of $794 million last year. Also included are after-tax losses on sales of fixed maturities of $279 million, in part to advance our portfolio turnover strategy.
本季度，我们的私募和上市股票按市价计算的税后实现亏损为 4.89 亿美元，而去年同期的收益为 7.94 亿美元。此外，还包括 2.79 亿美元的固定到期证券销售税后亏损，部分原因是为了推进我们的投资组合周转战略。
Book and tangible book value per share decreased 7.7% and 11.6%, respectively, from last quarter driven by the continuing impact of rising interest rates on our investment portfolio and unfavorable foreign currency movements.
与上一季度相比，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别下降了 7.7% 和 11.6%，主要原因是利率上升对我们的投资组合产生了持续影响，以及不利的汇率变动。
Net realized and unrealized losses for the quarter were $5.4 billion after tax. In the quarter, adjusted net investment income of $950 million was above the top end of our estimated range and benefited from higher interest income from floating-rate securities and higher reinvestment yields resulting from portfolio turnover in this more attractive interest rate environment. We are remaining consistent and conservative in our investment strategy with 82% of our fixed-income portfolio rated investment grade, and we intend to maintain our historical allocation across investment assets.
本季度税后已实现和未实现净亏损为 54 亿美元。本季度，调整后的净投资收入为 9.5 亿美元，高于我们预计的上限，这主要得益于浮动利率证券带来的较高利息收入，以及在更有吸引力的利率环境下投资组合周转带来的较高再投资收益率。我们在投资策略上保持一贯的保守态度，82% 的固定收入投资组合被评为投资级，我们打算保持投资资产的历史分配比例。
As Evan noted, with rising rates, our portfolio's reinvestment rate has increased year-to-date from 2.3% in December to 4.7% at June 30. Our current book yield is 3.2% versus 3% in the first quarter. As a reminder, every 100 basis point increase in our investment yield generates approximately $1.2 billion pretax of net investment income.
正如埃文所指出的，随着利率的上升，我们投资组合的再投资率从 12 月的 2.3% 上升到 6 月 30 日的 4.7%。我们目前的账面收益率为 3.2%，而第一季度为 3%。需要提醒的是，我们的投资收益率每增加 100 个基点，就会产生约 12 亿美元的税前净投资收入。
Updating our quarterly guidance, we now anticipate adjusted net investment income over the next quarter to be in the range of $980 million to $1 billion. And we expect the quality of this income to be high as the vast majority of it will be predictable yield-oriented income and very little from more volatile sources like PE distributions and call premiums.
在更新我们的季度指导后，我们现在预计下一季度的调整后净投资收入将在 9.8 亿美元到 10 亿美元之间。我们预计这些收入的质量会很高，因为其中绝大部分将是以收益为导向的可预测收入，而来自 PE 分配和认购溢价等波动性较大来源的收入则很少。
Our reported ROE for the quarter was 9%, and our core operating return on tangible equity was 18.6%. Our core operating ROE was 12.4%.
我们本季度报告的股本回报率（ROE）为9%，我们的核心经营有形股本回报率为18.6%。我们的核心经营股本回报率（ROE）为12.4%。
难得愿意提及这个数字。
Pretax catastrophe losses for the quarter were $291 million from weather-related events globally with approximately 79% in the U.S. and 21% internationally. We had favorable prior period development of $247 million pretax in the quarter, split approximately 1/3 in long-tail lines, principally from accident years 2017 and prior, and 2/3 in short-tail lines. The current period included a charge for molestation claims related to reviver statutes of $155 million. Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 83%.
本季度全球天气相关事件造成的税前巨灾损失为 2.91 亿美元，其中美国约占 79%，国际约占 21%。我们在本季度获得了有利的前期发展，税前损失为 2.47 亿美元，其中约 1/3 来自长尾险种，主要是 2017 年及以前的事故年度，2/3 来自短尾险种。当期包括与撤销法规相关的猥亵索赔支出 1.55 亿美元。本季度我们的已付赔付率为 83%。
Our core operating effect tax rate for the quarter was 17.7%, which is slightly above the high end of our previously guided 2022 annual range of 15.5% to 17.5%. This was due primarily to growth in higher-tax jurisdictions and the negative impact of adverse market conditions on assets supporting certain employee benefit programs. With an updated forecast of income jurisdiction, along with the closing of the acquisition of Cigna's business, we now expect our annual core operating effective tax rate for the full year 2022 to be in the range of 16.5% to 18.5%.
本季度我们的核心经营效应税率为 17.7%，略高于我们之前提出的 2022 年 15.5% 至 17.5% 年度指导区间的上限。这主要是由于高税率地区的增长，以及不利的市场条件对支持某些员工福利计划的资产造成的负面影响。根据对收入管辖区的最新预测，以及完成对 Cigna 业务的收购，我们现在预计 2022 年全年的核心经营有效税率将介于 16.5% 至 18.5% 之间。
As you saw, we completed the purchase of Cigna's A&H and life businesses in Asia. Our expectations regarding the earnings and expense synergies from Cigna remain consistent with or better than previous disclosures. As a reminder, we reported an expected $450 million of core operating income, assuming a close date of January 1, 2022. With the acquisition completed July 1, we will have a full quarter of earnings in the third quarter. We now expect expense synergies to reach a run rate of about $100 million pretax, which is higher than our initial estimate. To achieve the run rate savings, we expect onetime integration costs over the next 2 years to be about $140 million.
正如大家所看到的，我们完成了对 Cigna 在亚洲的 A&H 和寿险业务的收购。我们对 Cigna 带来的收益和费用协同效应的预期与之前披露的一致或更好。需要提醒的是，假设收购完成日期为 2022 年 1 月 1 日，我们报告的核心营业收入预计为 4.5 亿美元。随着收购于 7 月 1 日完成，我们将在第三季度获得整整一个季度的收益。我们现在预计支出协同效应将达到约 1 亿美元的税前运行率，高于我们最初的估计。为了实现运行率节约，我们预计未来两年的一次性整合成本约为 1.4 亿美元。
I'll now turn the call back over to Karen.
现在我把电话转回给凯伦。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we will be happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答你们的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions]. We take our first question from Michael Phillips with Morgan Stanley.
[接线员指示]第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的迈克尔-菲利普斯。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Congrats on a solid quarter again, guys. First question is on -- particularly around accident years '20 and '21 with the nuances from COVID. So Evan, any concerns there of more higher-than-average, I guess, late reported claims coming in down the pipe later than you otherwise would expect for these two accident years?
恭喜你们本季度的业绩再次稳健增长。第一个问题是关于20和21事故年，特别是COVID的细微差别。埃文（Evan），在这两个事故年度，你是否担心会有比平均水平更高的，我猜是更晚的理赔报告出现？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'm sorry, accident year 2020 but related to what again?
对不起，2020 年是事故年，但与什么有关？
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Yes, those two accident years because of COVID may be impacting late reported claims. And so are you -- or do you have any concerns that, that might be -- we might be seeing some more claims reported later than otherwise would be the case for those 2 years?
是的，由于 COVID 的存在，这两个事故年可能会影响迟报的索赔。那么，你是否担心，我们可能会在这两年看到比其他年份更晚报告的索赔？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No, no. Not at all.
没有，没有。完全没有
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. 好的
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'll remind you, quite the opposite. When we booked the '20 and '21 accident years, we imagined that those years would remain on trend as we trend years forward with inflation costs, et cetera. We didn't -- we just expected that the reporting pattern of claims, and therefore the payments of claims, might come later. But that those accident years would behave reasonably normally, we just didn't come off trend. So our reserves reflect all of that. I've been saying that for the last couple of years.
我要提醒你，情况恰恰相反。当我们为 20 年和 21 年的事故年份做预算时，我们认为这些年份会保持趋势，就像我们根据通货膨胀成本等因素预测未来几年的趋势一样。我们并没有--我们只是预计索赔的报告模式，因此索赔的支付可能会晚一点。但这些事故年的表现会比较正常，我们只是没有偏离趋势。因此，我们的储备金反映了这一切。过去几年我一直这么说。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Yes. Okay. And then just a particular question on the segments, if I could. In Overseas General, I guess their production in Europe seems to be down a bit, and I just wondered if there's any particular nuances there in the quarter. Or maybe just some outlook in Europe for Overseas General?
好的，明白了。然后我只想问一个关于部门的具体问题。在海外一般业务中，我猜他们在欧洲的生产似乎有所下降，我只是想知道这个季度是否有任何特别的细节。或者对于海外一般业务在欧洲的前景有何看法？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, Europe grew -- I'm sorry, we might see it a little different. Europe grew 12% on a constant dollar basis. You then have foreign exchange, of course, the impact of the euro and the pound. But the underlying health and growth, very strong.
是的，欧洲增长了--对不起，我们的看法可能有点不同。按定值美元计算，欧洲增长了 12%。当然，还有外汇、欧元和英镑的影响。但基本的健康状况和增长非常强劲。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. So underlying is still strong in Europe and more just FX impact there as well?
那么，欧洲的基本面依然强劲，更多的只是外汇的影响？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, you can -- and by the way, you could see it all in the supplement. Look on the Overseas General page. I can't recall the page number, but you can look in the lower left-hand corner and you'll see by region growth. I can't remember kids' birthdays, but I can remember stuff like that.
是的，你可以——顺便说一下，你可以在补充材料中看到所有内容。查看海外一般业务页面。我记不住页码，但你可以查看左下角，你会看到按地区增长的情况。我记不住孩子们的生日，但我能记住这类事情。
Operator 操作员
We're moving forward to David Motemaden with Evercore ISI.
下面有请 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Just a question on North America commercial. The underlying loss ratio there, very strong improvement. Was most of that pricing coming in above the new loss trend assumption? Or was there anything else in there related to structured transactions or noncap property losses that impacted that ratio?
关于北美商业部分，基础损失比率有了非常强劲的改善。这主要是因为定价超过了新的损失趋势假设吗？还是有其他因素，比如结构化交易或非资本财产损失，影响了这个比率？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. And remember, you're looking on an earned basis, not a written basis. So I just want to give you a nuance that when you talk about coming in above the new loss cost trends and all of that, this is the earned, not the written we're talking about when you get to loss ratio.
是的。并且记住，你是在按已赚保费计算，而不是按已写保费计算。所以我只想给你一个细微的差别，那就是当你谈论超出新的损失成本趋势等等时，我们谈论的是已赚的，而不是已写的，当你谈到损失比率时。
And it's broad based. It's across most -- all product lines contributed to the improvement. And the difference in structured transactions -- its impact was really de minimis, tiny. This was just broad-based improvement of rate that exceeded trend across our portfolio and as it earns in.
这是全面的基础。它涵盖了大多数——所有产品线都对改善做出了贡献。结构化交易的差异——其影响实际上是微不足道的，非常微小。这只是我们投资组合中费率的全面改善，超过了趋势，并且随着其实现而表现出来。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. And then, I guess, just maybe -- hoping maybe to get -- and thanks for the color on the loss ratio -- or, I'm sorry, on the loss cost trend changes. I was just wondering on the long-tail lines, changes in both North America and in Overseas General. Was there anything specific in the environment outside of just general inflation in the environment such as court reopenings? Or any sort of -- anything you're seeing in the legal environment that led to that change?
明白了。然后，我想也许——希望也许能得到——感谢您对损失比率的详细解释——或者，对不起，是关于损失成本趋势变化的。我只是想知道在长尾业务线，北美和海外一般业务的变化。除了一般环境中的通货膨胀外，是否有特定的环境因素，比如法院重新开放？或者您在法律环境中看到的任何导致这种变化的因素？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. None. Just our judgment around the general loss cost environment, both the trend we have observed, been observing in legal and in nonlegal. And then you have inflation in wages and medical costs and all of the inputs that would go into this. And again, it's not the -- it's not what we're observing today, but we're just looking ahead and trying -- and anticipating and staying on top of it.
不，没有。只是我们对一般损失成本环境的判断，包括我们在法律和非法律领域观察到的趋势。然后是工资和医疗费用的通货膨胀，以及所有这些投入因素。再次强调，这不是我们今天所观察到的，但我们只是向前看，并试图——预测并保持领先。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it. And a follow-up, I guess, is, is it a wide difference between what you're observing and what the new trend is? Or any sort of quantification on that, on how big the difference is between observed and actual -- or, I'm sorry, actual and projected?
明白了。还有一个后续问题，我想知道，你们观察到的情况和新趋势之间有很大的不同吗？或者有任何量化的方法来说明观察到的和实际的——或者，对不起，实际的和预测的——之间的区别有多大吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It really varies by line of business. And you have both frequency and severity inputs into loss cost trends in any one line of business, and it does just vary. So -- but overall, what I'm -- for proprietary reasons, I'm not going to go into the actual that we are experiencing, but I'm giving you what we're using this trend, which is, I think, better than you're getting anywhere else.
这确实因业务线而异。在任何一条业务线上，损失成本趋势都有频率和严重性两个输入因素，这些因素确实各不相同。所以——但总的来说，我——出于专有原因，我不会深入讨论我们实际经历的情况，但我可以告诉你我们正在使用的趋势，我认为这比其他地方得到的要好。
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘（Elyse Greenspan）。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Evan, I was hoping to get some forward view just on the pricing environment, right? You guys said loss trend around 6.5%. The disclosure you gave on your pricing, right, is still above that trend level. And you pointed to concerns about inflation. We also have to deal with courts reopening, Ukraine, right? You listed things that you guys are concerned about. As you think out, how long do you think the pricing momentum and rate can stay on top of that loss trend?
伊万，我希望得到一些关于定价环境的前瞻性看法，对吧？你们说损失趋势大约是6.5%。你们在定价方面提供的披露，对吧，仍然高于那个趋势水平。你们还指出了对通货膨胀的担忧。我们还得应对法院重新开放、乌克兰问题，对吧？你们列举了你们所关心的事情。当你思考这个问题时，你认为定价势头和费率能在多大程度上保持在损失趋势之上？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, look, Elyse, if I had a perfect crystal ball, I wouldn't be in this business. I'd go do something else. I can't predict the future. But my sense when I look at the tone of the market and the kind of indicators my colleagues look at and that I look at, the market I think there -- and I said it in my commentary. I think the market is, on one hand, becoming more competitive as companies rationally want to grow in what is an adequately rated environment. On the other hand, I see the -- or it can have a sense of the kind of reactions companies are having themselves to loss cost and inflation. It's very transparent -- reasonably transparent in pricing, in values selected in short-tail classes that they apply price against: so inflation factors and property values, et cetera.
好的，Elyse，如果我有一个完美的水晶球，我就不会从事这个行业了。我会去做别的事情。我无法预测未来。但当我观察市场的基调以及我的同事们和我观察到的指标时，我的直觉是，市场一方面，随着公司在合理评估的环境中理性地寻求增长，市场正在变得更加竞争。另一方面，我看到了——或者说我可以感受到公司对损失成本和通货膨胀的反应。在定价中非常透明——在短期业务中选择的价值是相当透明的：所以是通货膨胀因素和财产价值等。
这个回答非常好，一是理性，或者保持不疯掉；二是相同条件下比别人做得更好，或者比别人更能够避开噪音的干扰。
And the market is reasonably -- is rational to me at this time, and -- even though it's becoming more competitive. And rates naturally, like in anything else, they -- trees just don't grow to the sky. And so they've achieved adequacy in most all of our portfolio, so rates need to -- fundamentally, rate and exposure together, pricing needs to keep pace with that. And I see the market at this time rational that way.
市场在这个时候对我来说是合理的——即使它正在变得更加竞争。而且费率自然地，就像其他任何事情一样，它们——树木不会长到天上。因此，它们在我们的几乎所有投资组合中都达到了充分性，所以费率需要——从根本上说，费率和风险暴露一起，定价需要跟上。我认为市场在这个时候是合理地这样看待的。
And I don't see signs that it's going the other way. I see rates people are charging are reasonably -- should -- ought to produce reasonable results. On the margin, there's -- there are people doing dumb things. And you see it, but it's anecdotal. And you always see dumb things. So I feel reasonably confident, but that's as far as I can give you.
我没有看到任何迹象表明情况正在发生逆转。我看到人们的收费是合理的，应该产生合理的结果。在边际上，有人在做蠢事。你看到了，但这只是传闻。你总能看到蠢事。所以，我觉得有理由相信，但这是我能给你的。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
That's helpful. And then now that you guys have closed on the Cigna deal, do you have a sense -- can we get a sense of what the excess capital impact on your ROE is following that transaction?
这很有帮助。既然你们已经完成了 Cigna 的交易，那么你们是否了解 -- 我们能否了解该交易后超额资本对 ROE 的影响？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Elyse, we're not going to update it every bloody quarter. It doesn't move around that much. We gave you -- in the first quarter, we gave you a number. We also said that it contemplated the Cigna deal.
伊丽丝，我们不会每个季度都更新的。它不会变动那么多。我们在第一季度给了你一个数字。我们还说，它考虑到了 Cigna 的交易。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. And then one last one. Did you guys release any COVID reserves this quarter? I don't think you called that out, Peter.
好的最后一个问题。你们本季度有没有公布任何 COVID 储备？我觉得你没有说出来，彼得。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
No. 不
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Greg Peters with Raymond James.
下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司的格雷格-彼得斯。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
I guess I'm going to pivot to the investment income commentary. Evan, in your comments, you talked about being largely a hold-to-maturity investor or having that strategy. And then you also highlighted the sale of some fixed-maturity securities to take advantage of the new yields. You talked about the book yield being at 3.2%.
我想我要谈谈投资收益方面的评论。埃文，在你的评论中，你谈到了自己在很大程度上是一个持有至到期的投资者，或者说有这样的策略。然后，你还强调了出售一些固定期限证券，以利用新的收益率。你谈到账面收益率为 3.2%。
If I were to infer from your commentary, it sounds like you might be accelerating the sales and shifting your strategy from the hold-to-maturity to more like a trading just to upgrade on the yields. But I want to put words in your mouth. Maybe you can give us some color on that.
如果我从你的评论中推断，听起来你可能会加快销售，并将你的策略从持有至到期转变为更像交易，只是为了提高收益率。但我想把话说清楚。也许你可以给我们一些颜色。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I'm going to turn it over to Tim Boroughs in a second and Peter. But I want to straighten out one thing in your mind that I've also read that 1 or 2 of you wrote.
我马上把这个问题交给蒂姆-博罗夫斯和彼得。但我想澄清一件事，我也读过你们中一两个人写的文章。
Held to maturity, if you're going to use that term, is a very specific accounting -- GAAP accounting term. And there are rules around it. If you have something in the held-to-maturity portfolio, which we have a held-to-maturity portfolio, that is a security that, as designated, will not be sold. And you can only sell it under very prescriptive circumstances, i.e., an impairment, avoiding and around managing impairment. And I'm looking at my Chief Accounting Officer who's surprised. I can recall those rules. But that's held to maturity.
如果要使用 "持有至到期 "这一术语，它是一个非常具体的会计术语--美国通用会计准则（GAAP）会计术语。它是有规则可循的。如果你在持有至到期投资组合（我们有一个持有至到期投资组合）中持有某种证券，那么这种证券就被指定为不得出售。你只能在非常规范的情况下出售，即出现减值、避免减值和管理减值。我看着我的首席会计官，他很惊讶。我记得这些规定。但那是持有至到期。
We're a buy-and-hold portfolio predominantly. What that says is our intention, all things being equal, is we hold to maturity, but we have the ability to trade.
我们的投资组合以买入并持有为主。这说明，在同等条件下，我们的意图是持有到期，但我们有能力进行交易。
And by the way, we do trade and -- to take advantage of yields. But overall, the portfolio is held. And so losses will amortize back to par over time. And that's the overall portfolio statement.
顺便说一句，我们也进行交易，以利用收益率。但总体而言，投资组合是持有的。因此，随着时间的推移，损失会摊销回面值。这就是整个投资组合的报表。
Now about where we are beyond that, I'm going to turn it over to Tim and Peter.
现在，关于我们现在的情况，我将把它交给蒂姆和彼得。
Timothy Boroughs 蒂莫西-博罗恩斯
Yes, this is Tim, Tim Boroughs. In this environment, with rates rising, first of all, as Evan and Peter mentioned, we have a gap of about 150 basis points between our book and market yield. And this is like Nirvana for bond investors. We're happy campers, right? As new cash flow and maturities come in, for the first time in almost 10 years, we're actually picking up yield. So that's a good thing.
是的，我是蒂姆，蒂姆·伯勒斯。在这样的环境下，随着费率上升，首先，正如伊万和彼得提到的，我们的账面收益率和市场收益率之间大约有150个基点的差距。这就像是债券投资者的天堂。我们是快乐的露营者，对吧？随着新的现金流和到期资金的进入，近10年来第一次，我们实际上正在提高收益率。所以这是一件好事。
I think in this environment, we're going to focus -- I want to emphasize, we're going to focus on risk-adjusted returns. We're not going to reach for yield and will remain -- we're going to maintain a very high-quality bias.
在这个环境下，我们将专注于风险调整后的回报。我们不会为了追求收益而冒险，并将保持对高质量资产的偏好。
是没有能力追求高收益，整个资本结构经不起折腾。
When we talk about accelerating the turnover, as Evan emphasized, this is going to take place in the same sectors for which those securities are sold. So these tactical moves are incorporated in the investment income guidance that Peter provided, and they're not going to have any material impact on the average credit quality of the portfolio. And obviously, they're going to help to accelerate the rise in book yield.
正如埃文所强调的，当我们谈到加速周转时，这将在出售这些证券的相同部门进行。因此，彼得提供的投资收益指导中包含了这些战术性举措，它们不会对投资组合的平均信用质量产生任何实质性影响。显然，这些举措将有助于加快账面收益率的上升。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
Got it. I guess just as a follow-up on that answer, just trying to understand the magnitude and the timing. I'm not sure you're prepared to give us much on that, but I had to throw it out there as a duty. Can you give us some sense of the magnitude you're talking about?
明白了。我想我只是想了解一下这个问题的严重性和时间。我不确定你是否准备在这方面给我们提供很多信息，但我不得不把它作为一项职责抛出来。你能告诉我们你所说的规模吗？
Timothy Boroughs 蒂莫西-博罗恩斯
I would say, as I said, anything that we now contemplate is incorporated in the guidance that Peter gave.
我想说的是，正如我所说的那样，我们现在考虑的任何事情都包含在彼得给出的指导中。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
Got it. 知道了
Timothy Boroughs 蒂莫西-博罗恩斯
And the preponderance of the increase in the guidance, Greg, comes from net interest income. So I think that's the point.
格雷格，指导性增长主要来自净利息收入。所以我认为这才是重点。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
Got it. Okay. My second question...
知道了好的 我的第二个问题 Okay.我的第二个问题...
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
The only other thing I will add is it'll continue to accelerate from there.
我唯一要补充的是，它还会继续加速发展。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
All right. The second question will be on Cigna and Asia. We've observed some other large public companies in the insurance market, either accident health, supplemental health, struggle to generate growth in Asia in the last several quarters, if not the last couple of years. So you've talked about the return factor for the Cigna transaction. Can you talk about how you think about growth of that business over the intermediate term?
好的第二个问题是关于 Cigna 和亚洲的。我们注意到保险市场上的其他一些大型上市公司，无论是意外医疗保险还是补充医疗保险，在过去的几个季度，甚至是过去的几年里，都难以在亚洲实现增长。因此，您谈到了 Cigna 交易的回报因素。您能谈谈您对该业务中期增长的看法吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. First of all, I think what we just told you is, is our A&H business, which is not a small business in Asia, the Chubb A&H business is close to a $1 billion business. That business grew a healthy double digit in the second quarter. We just gave you that number. So let me start with that perspective.
是的。首先，我想我们刚才告诉大家的是，我们的A&H业务在亚洲不是一个小业务，丘博的A&H业务接近10亿美元。该业务在第二季度实现了两位数的健康增长。我们刚刚给出了这个数字。因此，请允许我从这个角度出发。
And secondly, our strategy for Cigna-Chubb together, the value creation is going to come from two things. The efficiencies/expense are just one part. That's not the interesting part to make, it's the ability to create revenue, and therefore earnings growth, from the combination of the two companies. And it's the -- it's -- we're the only company I know of in Asia that has a unified life and nonlife joint approach that is going to together -- and it's a country-by-country strategy, pretty granular to how we're going to accelerate growth faster than either one would have been standalone.
其次，我们为 Cigna-Chubb 制定的战略将从两方面创造价值。效率/费用只是其中一部分。这部分并不重要，重要的是两家公司合并后能够创造收入，从而实现盈利增长。据我所知，在亚洲，我们是唯一一家拥有统一的寿险和非寿险联合战略的公司，该战略将以国家为单位，非常详细地说明我们将如何加快增长速度，而不是单打独斗。
The combined companies, the customer -- remember, these are direct marketing companies. And the customer database of each together is an asset for cross-sell. The ability to approach and to develop a new product approach of unified life and nonlife products which will be unique in the marketplace, and we're already planning, is another source. Our ability to approach more sponsors and get more share of marketing space because of our life and nonlife together.
合并后的公司、客户 -- 记住，这些都是直销公司。每家公司的客户数据库都是交叉销售的资产。另一个来源是，我们有能力接触和开发统一的人寿和非人寿产品的新产品方法，这将是市场上独一无二的，我们已经在计划中。我们有能力接触更多的赞助商，并获得更多的营销空间份额，因为我们的人寿和非人寿产品都在一起。
补强式收购，客户资源看着是比较重要的。
So our plans are whatever each one was naturally growing, the growth is going to accelerate. And it takes a little time. We'll see it in a modest way in '23. We're going to see much more in '24 and '25 as we go out.
因此，我们的计划是，无论每个人是自然增长还是加速增长。这需要一点时间。我们会在 23 年看到适度的增长。随着时间的推移，我们将在 24 年和 25 年看到更多的增长。
And finally, beyond what has been predominantly telemarketing and independent agent in the Cigna side, like with the Chubb side, a greater emphasis on the mixing and matching now, which is the Asia trend, of digital and telemarketing.
最后，除了在 Cigna 方面以电话营销和独立代理为主之外，与 Chubb 方面一样，现在更强调数字和电话营销的混合与匹配，这是亚洲的趋势。
So it's -- this goes across Korea, Thailand, Taiwan in particular, and, to a degree, Hong Kong. And I just came back from the region, and plans are granular and people are off to the races in execution. So there you go.
因此，这涉及韩国、泰国、台湾，尤其是香港。我刚从该地区回来，计划很细化，人们都在全力以赴地执行。就是这样。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
There was some feedback at the beginning of your comments. And maybe the moderator has the mic open. It wasn't on my end. Just FYI.
你的评论开头有一些反馈。也许是主持人打开了麦克风。我这边没有。仅供参考。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, I think there are some window washers actually outside my window, which really you can't make this stuff up.
是的，我想外面确实有些擦窗户的人在我的窗户外面，这种事情真是编都编不出来。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
Perfect timing on that, Evan.
来得正是时候，埃文。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Oh, I didn't know. If I was garbled, you just tell me what I didn't get and I'll give it to you.
哦，我不知道。如果我说错了，你只要告诉我我没听懂的地方，我就给你。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
No, no, I heard you fine. I just heard the window washers in the background, and I didn't know if that was the moderator that had...
不 不 我听得很清楚我只是听到背景里有洗窗器的声音，我不知道那是不是主持人...
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, yes, I mean, I got you. You just can't get any respect around here. Okay.
是的，是的，我是说，我明白你的意思。你在这里得不到任何尊重好吧 Okay.
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.
下一个问题由 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 提出。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
I guess my first question, I don't think you mentioned any Russia- or Ukraine-related losses. Are you seeing any of those and they're just not large enough to call out? Or are you just waiting to see kind of how this situation develops before putting up along?
我想我的第一个问题是，我想你没有提到任何与俄罗斯或乌克兰有关的损失。你是否看到了任何这些损失，只是它们还不够大，不足以指出来？或者你只是在等待，看看局势如何发展，然后再提出来？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
They're not large enough to call out. Year-to-date, they're just -- it's a de minimis amount. And that's losses that we have enough information to judge as incurred and put a dollar amount. Of course, we have more exposure than that, that we're watching and observing, but I'm comfortable that our loss picks will contemplate those.
它们的数额还不够大。从年初到现在，这些损失都是微不足道的。我们有足够的信息来判断这些损失的发生，并给出一个美元数额。当然，我们还有更多的风险敞口，我们正在关注和观察，但我很放心，我们的损失选择会考虑这些。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. And then with regards to raising the loss trends, it seems to me -- and I don't know this for a fact, but it seems to me like you're actually ahead of a lot of your peers with raising the trends to where you took them to. Does that challenge your ability to grow at the piece that you want to grow?
好的。然后关于提高损失趋势，在我看来——我不确定这是否是事实，但在我看来，你们实际上在提高趋势方面领先于许多同行。这是否挑战了你们以期望的速度增长的能力？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, first of all, I don't know what my peers are raising their loss trends to. So I don't know. And I don't know that they're not raising them and have them in the same levels. So I can't speculate that way. What I do know is on -- no different than any other period we've ever been in. We're going to charge what we think is the right rate to produce a reasonable risk-adjusted return. If we can't get paid, we don't write the business. Do I feel like that's going to put me at a competitive disadvantage? Not at this point in the cycle, I don't see it.
首先，我不知道我的同行们把损失趋势提高到了什么程度。所以我不知道。而且我也不知道他们的损失趋势是否与我相同。所以我不能这样推测。我所知道的是，我们所处的时期与以往任何时期都没有区别。我们将收取我们认为合适的费率，以产生合理的风险调整后回报。如果收不到钱，我们就不承保。我觉得这会让我在竞争中处于劣势吗？在周期的这个阶段，我不这么认为。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Got it. 知道了
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
As you go forward and things become competitive again, when and if it happens in the future, then of course, I'll trade growth all day long to be sure that underwriting continues to grow book value. I have not changed in 45 years.
如果未来竞争再度激烈起来，我当然会整天与增长做交易，以确保承保业务的账面价值继续增长。45 年来，我从未改变。
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Meyer Shields with KBW.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Two quick questions. First, Evan, in your prepared comments, you mentioned food and energy and security. And I was hoping you can give us a little bit more commentary on maybe the regions where that represents underwriting risk.
两个简单的问题。首先，埃文，在你准备好的评论中，你提到了食品、能源和安全。我希望你能给我们提供更多的评论，也许在哪些地区这代表着承保风险。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, I don't know that it presents an exact underwriting risk. It's not a one-for-one direct relationship, but it all feeds the backdrop of the environment we're in, whether it is inflation, whether it is recession because how it impacts people, whether it is social and political strains that lead to instability, whether it is the political strains that lead to geopolitical instability.
我不知道这是否会带来确切的承保风险。这并不是一一对应的直接关系，但这一切都与我们所处的环境息息相关，无论是通货膨胀、经济衰退（因为它如何影响人们）、导致不稳定的社会和政治压力，还是导致地缘政治不稳定的政治压力。
You have to consider all that. It's the -- it's part of the -- it all feeds into the background noise and of the risk environment. And so you got to put a broader lens on it when you start, and then you come down to the very specific correlations when you're thinking about individual risk.
你必须考虑到这一切。它是 -- 它是 -- 它的一部分 -- 它都融入了背景噪音和风险环境中。因此，在开始时，你必须从更广阔的视角来看待它，然后在考虑个人风险时，你再去考虑非常具体的相关性。
And I was bringing it also in context of that it's hardly that we're pollyannish when we're bullish about the future of the company. And as we look forward, we're bullish about the things we can control and that we see in our sites. We try to put all that and remain bullish in context of the external environment as we see it today. And that's my point.
我在谈论的背景下，我们对公司未来持乐观态度，并不是不切实际的乐观。当我们展望未来时，我们对自己能够控制的事情以及我们所看到的机会持乐观态度。我们尝试把所有这些因素考虑在内，并在今天所看到的外部环境的背景下保持乐观。这就是我的观点。
在乐观中才能找到可以做的事，通过做事影响未来，这段描述非常好。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
No, understood. That's very helpful. A second question. Just in terms of the reserving process for recent accident years, how much of the increased cost trend that you talked about is -- shows up on your -- the current valuation of those accident year reserves?
不，我明白。这很有帮助。第二个问题。就最近几个事故年的储备过程而言，你所谈到的成本增加趋势有多少体现在你目前对这些事故年储备的估值中？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Can you repeat that? I'm a little -- I'm not sure I got exactly what you said.
你能再说一遍吗？我不太明白你到底说了些什么。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Yes. No, that's the -- I garbled it a little bit. You talked about including the newer loss trend in pricing and accident year results. Does the reserving process also tweak up accident year 2021 when a line's loss trends are raised?
是的。不，那是——我有点说错了。你谈到了在定价中包括更新的损失趋势以及事故年度结果。当某条业务线损失趋势上调时，准备金流程也会相应调整2021年的事故年度吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, as we do individual reserve studies on each line of business, everything comes to play. So you first start with, how is it performing against frequency and severity, et cetera, against what you expected when you put it up? And also your future loss cost on that accident year, what are the trends you used versus your view of trends today? So all of it gets mixed into an analysis when you're looking at the study of any one cohort of business as we review them.
当我们对每项业务进行单独的准备金研究时，一切都会发挥作用。因此，你首先要考虑的是，它在频率和严重程度等方面的表现如何，是否符合你设立准备金时的预期？此外，你对该事故年度的未来损失成本，你所采用的趋势与你对当前趋势的看法如何？因此，在我们审查任何一组业务的研究时，所有这些都会被混合到分析中。
I say it to you that way because you can't spike one thing out and then use some simplistic way to imagine because you're trying to go to adequacy versus inadequacy or any of that, and I'm trying to pierce through to that thought, if you're following me.
我理解您想要表达的意思。您在强调，不能简单地只关注一个因素，然后以一种简化的方式去想象，因为您正在努力达到充分性与不充分性之间的平衡，或者任何类似的问题，您正在尝试深入到这个思考中，如果您明白我的意思的话。
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Brian Meredith with UBS.
下一个问题由瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）提出。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Two of them here for you. First one, hopefully pretty quick, for Peter. I'm just curious, FX had a little bit of a headwind here from an earnings perspective also. Should we expect something similar here in the third quarter given where FX rates are?
这里有两张给你们。第一个，希望很快，给彼得。我很好奇，从盈利的角度来看，外汇也带来了一些不利因素。考虑到外汇汇率的情况，我们是否应该对第三季度有类似的预期？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Very hard to say, Brian, just because of the volatility around it. We obviously have a substantial international operation. You saw that in the revenue and the operating income numbers. I really can't judge. We don't hedge the operating businesses for FX. So what happens, happens. We do, do some hedging around debt and some of the other aspects.
布莱恩，这很难说，因为这很不稳定。很明显，我们的国际业务量很大。你在收入和营业收入数字中也看到了这一点。我真的无法判断。我们不对经营业务进行外汇套期保值。所以，该发生的还是会发生。我们确实围绕债务和其他方面做了一些对冲。
这一点跟巴菲特的观点是一致的，但苹果是做套保的，巴菲特和芒格认为这个工作是自己幻觉。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Got you. And then, Evan, I was hoping we'd dig in a little bit into the whole loss trend situation you were talking about and the increase here. Is there any specific area that you're more concerned about? I mean if I think about it, there's been conversations about medical cost inflation ticking up, tort inflation as the court systems reopen. Any kind of signs that you're seeing that you say, wow, this is an area that we're concerned about and why we increased our trend assumption more?
明白了。然后，伊万，我希望我们能深入探讨一下你谈到的整个损失趋势情况以及这里的增加。有没有你特别关注的特定领域？我的意思是，如果我想一下，有关医疗费用通胀上升、法院系统重新开放后的侵权通胀等讨论。你有没有看到任何迹象，让你说，哇，这是我们关注的一个领域，以及为什么我们增加了趋势假设？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Brian, I'll repeat myself. We're not seeing -- across our business, it's -- we're not seeing the trends that we're actually using -- we're anticipating and increased those in anticipation of future because our business -- the insurance business classically lags. And rather than be lagging and get caught, we try to -- we've all been through this a number of times in inflationary periods. And so it's to anticipate ahead.
Brian，我会重复一遍。我们在我们的业务中并没有看到——我们实际上并没有看到我们正在使用的——我们正在预测并提前增加的趋势，因为我们的业务——保险业务传统上是滞后的。而不是滞后并被抓住，我们尝试——我们在通货膨胀时期已经经历过很多次了。所以这是为了提前预测。
And you know what? There are no areas that concern me. I don't think of it that way. We're just vigilant about everything. Or we try to be.
你知道吗？没有什么地方让我担心。我不这么认为。我们只是对一切保持警惕或者说我们努力做到
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Got you. So does that mean that your business today, you would kind of view as rate adequate, but you still want to kind of be careful about what's going forward?
明白了。那么，这是否意味着，你会认为你现在的业务已经足够，但你仍然希望对未来的发展保持谨慎？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
And I said it in the commentary, and I know you listened, that our -- that the rates we're charging -- our business is -- the vast majority of it is achieving an adequate risk-adjusted return. And that means that pricing and rate is adequate. Now you need -- what you really need in particular, and it's not true of the whole portfolio, but the vast majority, you need rate that will keep pace with loss cost. We're anticipating about loss cost, not trying to anticipate and not simply use lagging of what we see because what we see is a combination of frequency and severity, and it varies by line. And that is a bit of a lagging indicator.
我在评论中说过，我知道你们也听进去了，我们的 -- 我们收取的费率 -- 我们的业务 -- 绝大部分正在实现适当的风险调整后回报。这意味着定价和费率是适当的。现在你需要的是 -- 你真正特别需要的是 -- 虽然不是整个投资组合都需要，但绝大多数情况下，你需要的是与损失成本保持同步的费率。我们对损失成本进行预测，而不是试图预测，也不是简单地滞后于我们所看到的，因为我们所看到的是频率和严重性的结合，而且因产品线而异。这是一个滞后指标。
这是保险业务的关键，但这样的解释看上去一般。
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Tracy Benguigui from Barclays.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Could you walk us through your process of setting combined ratio target to your underwriters? I'm thinking it's some derivative of ROE. So when you're coming up with these targets, are you basing that on new money yields or portfolio yields?
您能否向我们介绍一下您为承销商设定综合比率目标的过程？我认为这是投资回报率的某种衍生。那么，当你们提出这些目标时，是以新货币收益率还是投资组合收益率为基础？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
The portfolio takes a long time to turn over. So you know what? It's based on portfolio. And I'm not going to go through it, no.
投资组合需要很长时间才能翻身。你知道吗？这是基于投资组合。我不会去通过它，没有。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. Got it. All right. No, that's very helpful. I mean this is where I was going with it. According to broker pricing surveys, in your own book, you called out deceleration in casualty-related classes. So I was just trying to get a sense if part of the equation of casualty deceleration is because maybe others are pricing based on new money yields and they're weighing more in future investment income. But it sounds like you're taking a more measured approach, looking at the portfolio yields. Is that fair?
好的明白了好的不，这是非常有帮助的。我的意思是，这就是我想说的。根据经纪人的定价调查，在你自己的书中，你提到了与意外伤害相关的类别的减速。所以，我只是想了解一下，意外险减速的部分原因是否是因为其他公司是根据新的货币收益率来定价的，而他们更看重未来的投资收益。但听起来你们似乎采取了一种更谨慎的方法，关注投资组合的收益率。这样理解对吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. I think you're way overseeing this. I think that's an academic approach, not a practitioner's approach. If you think the marketplace today is pricing underwriters and the day-to-day trades are pricing based upon some view of combined ratios where it's been calculated with new money versus portfolio yield, let me disabuse you of that. It is not that finally or I'm disciplined in the way that the marketplace actually works in pricing.
不，我认为你过于简化了这个问题。我认为这是一种学术方法，而不是实践者的方法。如果你认为当今市场上的定价人员和日常交易者是基于某种综合比率的观点来定价的，而这种综合比率是用新资金与投资组合收益计算出来的，让我来纠正你的想法。实际情况并非如此，或者我所说的是市场在定价方面并不如此严谨。
And how long it takes for others to review portfolios, see results, make judgments, then have that passed down to the trading level of how does it impact how we see rates, well, that's a ways out there, and it doesn't really work in that buttoned-up way in most of the world -- the vast majority of the world of insurance.
其他人要花多长时间来审查投资组合、看到结果、做出判断，然后再将这些信息传递到交易层面，这对我们如何看待费率有什么影响，这些都是很遥远的事情，而且在世界上的大多数地方--世界上绝大多数的保险业--都不是以这种按部就班的方式工作的。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. Based on some conversations I've had, it sounds like a mix by others. But you guys are definitely thinking about it, I think, in the right way given everything that you just mentioned. So I appreciate you providing that color.
好吧，根据我的一些谈话，这听起来像是其他人的混合意见。但我认为，鉴于你刚才提到的一切，你们的思考方式绝对是正确的。所以，我很感谢你提供的信息。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, it's interesting. People say one thing and then you observe something else. But anyway.
嗯，这很有趣。人们说一件事，你却观察到另一件事。但不管怎样
这句话明显是多余的，喜欢跟白痴较劲。
Operator 操作员
We take our next question from Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。
Alexander Scott 亚历山大-斯科特
First one I had was on personal lines. The underwriting has been holding up quite well relative to what we're seeing across the industry. So I was just interested if you could provide any color on what you're doing that's allowed that to happen and if the maybe better price adequacy than some of your peers have will allow you to pivot harder to growth.
首先是个人保险。与我们在整个行业看到的情况相比，你们的承保情况一直保持良好。因此，我很想知道，你们是否能介绍一下你们是如何做到这一点的，以及与某些同行相比，你们的价格充足性是否会让你们更努力地实现增长。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, first of all, we have a different kind of portfolio. We're not general market homeowners or auto, it's high net worth, as you know. And so it's a segment of the marketplace, number one.
好的，首先，我们拥有一种不同类型的投资组合。我们不是一般市场的房主或汽车保险，而是高净值个人，正如你所知。所以这是市场的一部分，第一点。
看上去只是没有疯掉的水平，2014年股价77.37，当前276，上涨幅度=276/77.37=3.57倍，同时期的VOO，2014年是139.57，当前498，上涨幅度=498/139.57=3.57倍，几乎一模一样，没有疯掉已经超过90%的竞争对手。
Number two, look, we took a lot of pain in the last couple of years in adjusting how we price in the absolute rate we charge, in how we think about it by parrel, how we think about it by territory. And that's never ending. But we had gotten -- the company in total had gotten behind a few years ago in overall pricing and price adequacy. And so we took pain in terms of growth for that.
其次，在过去的几年里，我们在调整定价方式、绝对收费率、按地区定价、按地域定价等方面付出了很多努力。这是永无止境的。但是，几年前，我们公司在整体定价和价格适当性方面已经落后了。因此，我们为此在增长方面吃了不少苦头。
And I -- my own sense -- and we've seen it in the high net worth category. It's not just rate but price, how you view the values of individual homes and the inflation factors you use, how you do that in fine arts and in other valuables within homes.
我自己的感知是——我们已经在高净值类别中看到了这一点。这不仅仅是费率问题，还有价格问题，比如你如何看待个别住宅的价值，你使用的通货膨胀因素，以及你如何在家庭中的艺术品和其他贵重物品上做到这一点。
We've been very disciplined to adjust to inflation that has been running hot in that area for a while. Competition -- competitors have been slow to do that. And again, we gave up some business at times for that. I think it serves us well at this time, and we're just steady as she goes.
我们一直非常严谨地根据该领域一段时间以来的通胀情况进行调整。竞争 -- 竞争对手在这方面做得很慢。同样，我们有时也因此放弃了一些业务。我认为这在目前对我们很有利，我们只是稳中求进。
Alexander Scott 亚历山大-斯科特
Got it. Second question I had for you is on capital management. I know you guys just closed the Cigna deal, so maybe a little early for me to be asking this type of question. But at this environment, it seems like the returns are quite strong, you're generating a lot of capital. I was just interested if you could update us on capital deployment priorities.
知道了。第二个问题是关于资本管理的。我知道你们刚刚完成了 Cigna 的交易，所以我问这个问题可能有点早。但在目前的环境下，回报似乎相当丰厚，你们正在产生大量资本。我只是想知道，你们能否向我们介绍一下资本部署的优先顺序。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Capital deployment is steady as she goes. We will retain capital for both. We run a conservative balance sheet. We're in a balance sheet business. We're in a risk business. And we will retain capital for risk and volatility, and we will retain capital for growth opportunities, organic and inorganic. And the money doesn't burn a hole in our pocket, and we've been awfully good stewards of capital. I think our history shows that. No change to policy.
资本部署稳中有进。我们将为两者保留资本。我们的资产负债表很保守。我们从事的是资产负债表业务。我们从事的是风险业务。我们会为风险和波动保留资本，也会为有机和无机的增长机会保留资本。这些钱不会在我们的口袋里烧出一个洞，我们一直是非常好的资本管理者。我认为我们的历史证明了这一点。政策不变。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Hello? 喂？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
We went blank. 我们脑子一片空白。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Yes. Okay. Well, thank you. At this point, we want to thank everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we'll be around to take your calls. Enjoy your day. Thank you.
是的 - 好的 - Yes.好的 谢谢 Okay.Well, thank you.在此，我们要感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢大家
Operator 操作员
And this concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。现在可以挂断电话了。
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