Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call February 1, 2023 8:30 AM ET

丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2022 年第四季度财报电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 2 月 1 日上午 8:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations

Karen Beyer - 投资者关系部高级副总裁

Evan Greenberg - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

埃文-格林伯格 - 主席兼首席执行官

Peter Enns - Chief Financial Officer

彼得-恩斯 - 首席财务官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行

Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler

保罗-纽瑟姆 - 派珀-桑德勒

Greg Peters - Raymond James

Tracy Benguigui - Barclays

Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行

Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银

Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs

亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团

Mike Zaremski - BMO

Operator 操作员

Good morning. My name is Rob and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I’d like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

早上好我叫罗布，是今天的电话会议接线员。现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博 2022 年第四季度财报电话会议。为防止背景噪音，所有线路均已静音。发言人发言结束后，将进行问答环节。[谢谢。投资者关系高级副总裁凯伦-拜尔（Karen Beyer），您可以开始您的电话会议。

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you and welcome everyone to our December 31, 2022 fourth quarter and year end earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix, growth opportunities and economic and market conditions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release, financial supplements which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters. We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most direct comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplements.

感谢并欢迎大家参加我们 2022 年 12 月 31 日的第四季度和年终财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括与公司业绩、定价和业务组合、增长机会以及经济和市场状况有关的陈述，这些陈述存在风险和不确定性，实际结果可能会有重大差异。有关可能影响这些事项的因素的更多信息，请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报、财务补充文件（可在我们的网站 investors.chubb.com 上查阅）。我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（Non-GAAP）的财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账以及相关细节，请参阅我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充资料。

Now, I’d like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer. Then we will take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.

现在，我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。然后，我们将接受大家的提问。我们管理团队的几位成员也将与我们一起回答你们的问题。

And now, it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.

现在，我很高兴把电话交给埃文。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Good morning. We had a strong finish, which contributed to another record year. Our quarterly underwriting results were excellent, with an 88% combined ratio despite a true-up to the projected ‘22 crop insurance full year results. We had good growth in net investment income that led to a record result and double-digit premium growth with strong contributions from our commercial and consumer P&C lines globally and our international life business.

早上好。我们以强劲的业绩结束了这一年，这有助于我们再次创下纪录。我们的季度承保结果非常出色，尽管对预计的2022年全年作物保险结果进行了调整，综合比率仍达到了88%。我们的净投资收入增长良好，达到了创纪录的成果，并且保费实现了两位数增长，这得益于我们全球商业和消费者财产和意外险业务以及国际寿险业务的强劲贡献。

More important, the quarterly results led to what was the best full year financial performance in our company’s history, including record operating income on both a per share and dollar basis from record P&C underwriting and investment income and another year of double-digit premium revenue growth, including the best organic growth in our international P&C business in a decade. All areas of the company contributed to the outstanding results last year. And I want to congratulate and thank so many of my colleagues around the globe.

更重要的是，季度业绩带来了我们公司历史上最好的全年财务表现，包括每股和美元基础上的创纪录营业收益，这些收益来自创纪录的财产和意外险承保和投资收入，以及又一年的两位数保费收入增长，包括我们国际财产和意外险业务十年来最好的有机增长。公司的所有领域都为去年的杰出业绩做出了贡献。我想祝贺并感谢全球各地的许多同事。

Core operating income in the quarter was $1.7 billion or $4.05 per share. Crop results reduced our expected agriculture earnings by $0.39 per share. For the year, we produced core operating income of $6.5 billion or $15.24 per share, up 21% and again, a record. Quarterly P&C underwriting income of $1.1 billion was impacted, as I said, by an underwriting loss from crop as we trued up our projection for the ‘22 crop year. This change of view for the full year result was due to the late season emergence of losses from drought conditions in certain corn belt states, which overshadowed average to excellent growing conditions in many other areas, leading to what we now know is a below-average year overall for that business.

本季度的核心营业收入为 17 亿美元，合每股 4.05 美元。农作物产量使我们的预期农业收益减少了每股 0.39 美元。全年核心营业收入为 65 亿美元，合每股 15.24 美元，同比增长 21%，再次创下历史新高。正如我所说，11 亿美元的季度 P&C 承保收入受到了农作物承保亏损的影响，因为我们调整了对 22 农作物年度的预测。对全年业绩看法的改变，是由于某些玉米带州的干旱状况在季节末期造成了损失，这给许多其他地区的平均或极佳的生长条件蒙上了阴影，导致我们现在知道的该业务总体上低于平均水平。

Agriculture is a weather exposed business with nat cat like characteristics. It’s about growing conditions and commodity prices. And each year, you start over. For the year, we performed well, all considered. We published a 94.2% combined ratio and produced $165 million in agriculture underwriting income.

农业是一个受天气影响的行业，具有类似自然灾害的特点。它与生长条件和商品价格有关。每年，你都要重新开始。就一年而言，我们的表现总体上是好的。我们公布了94.2%的综合比率，并在农业承保业务中产生了1.65亿美元的收入。

Back on the quarter, excluding agriculture, the combined ratio was 85.9% and speaks to the strong broad-based underlying performance of our business, which produced an amazing 82.9% ex-cat current accident year combined ratio. Full year P&C underwriting income was a record $4.6 billion, up 23%, with a published combined ratio of 87.6% and that’s with $2.2 billion of catastrophe losses in what was one of the costliest years yet for the industry in terms of cats.

回顾本季度，除农业外，我们的综合比率为 85.9%，这说明我们的业务表现强劲，基础广泛，本年度事故前综合比率达到惊人的 82.9%。全年 P&C 承保收入达到创纪录的 46 亿美元，同比增长 23%，公布的综合比率为 87.6%，其中包括 22 亿美元的巨灾损失，这也是该行业迄今为止损失最惨重的一年。

On the investment side, adjusted net investment income topped $1.1 billion for the quarter, up about $215 million from prior year and $4 billion for the year, both records. Our reinvestment rate is now averaging 5.6% against a portfolio yield of 3.6% and that’s translating into annualized run-rate growth, simply going into the first quarter of 13%, which will continue to grow as we reinvest cash flow at higher rates.

在投资方面，本季度调整后净投资收入超过 11 亿美元，比去年同期增长约 2.15 亿美元，全年增长 40 亿美元，均创下历史记录。目前，我们的再投资率平均为 5.6%，而投资组合收益率为 3.6%，这意味着年化增长率达到了 13%，进入第一季度后，随着我们以更高的比率对现金流进行再投资，这一增长率还将继续提高。

Our operating cash flow for the quarter and year was $2.7 billion and $11.2 billion respectively. For perspective, I want to touch on capital management. As you know, our policy is to maintain, is to manage for capital flexibility. After all, we are a balance sheet business in the risk business and we are a growth company. We maintain flexibility for risk and opportunity and return the balance to shareholders simple and consistent policy.

本季度和全年的运营现金流分别为 27 亿美元和 112 亿美元。从这个角度来看，我想谈谈资本管理。众所周知，我们的政策是保持资本管理的灵活性。毕竟，我们是一家从事风险业务的资产负债表企业，也是一家成长型企业。我们为风险和机遇保持灵活性，并将余额返还给股东，这是简单而一贯的政策。

The last 2 years are instructive. We have organically grown our P&C premiums 21.5% and that requires capital. We have deployed $5.4 billion for the Cigna acquisition and invested a further $1.4 billion and increasing our Huatai ownership together key strategic acquisitions with an emphasis on Asia. And at the same time, we have returned over $10.5 billion of total capital to shareholders through buybacks, over 9% of outstanding shares and dividends all the while maintaining capital adequacy for risk and future opportunity and we have capital flexibility given our strong earnings generation power. Peter will have more to say about financial items, including cats, prior period development, investment income, book value and ROE.

过去两年的情况很有启发性。我们的保费有机增长了 21.5%，这需要资金。我们为收购 Cigna 投放了 54 亿美元，还投资了 14 亿美元，并增加了华泰的持股比例，同时进行了以亚洲为重点的关键战略收购。与此同时，我们还通过回购、超过 9% 的流通股和分红等方式，将超过 105 亿美元的总资本返还给股东，同时保持资本充足，以应对风险和未来机遇。彼得还将介绍更多的财务项目，包括利润、前期发展、投资收益、账面价值和投资回报率。

Now turning to growth in the rate environment, consolidated net written premiums for the company increased nearly 12% in the quarter on a published basis or 16% in constant dollars to $10.2 billion. This includes growth of 9.8% in our P&C business and over 100% of growth in life premiums, reflecting the addition of the Cigna Asia business. P&C premium growth in earnings in the quarter were balanced and broad-based with contributions from virtually all commercial and most consumer businesses globally. Agriculture aside, North America commercial premiums were up almost 9%, while our high net worth personal lines business was up 6%, a very strong result. Overseas general grew 9.7% in constant dollars, but declined 1.3% after FX, with commercial up 9.4% and consumer up 10.3%.

公司的综合净保费在本季度几乎增长了12%，按公布数据计算，或者以固定汇率增长了16%，达到了102亿美元。这包括我们的财产和意外险业务增长了9.8%，以及寿险保费增长超过100%，反映了Cigna亚洲业务的增加。本季度的财产和意外险保费增长和收益均衡且基础广泛，几乎所有全球商业和大多数消费者业务都有贡献。农业除外，北美商业保费增长了近9%，而我们的高净值个人业务线增长了6%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。海外一般业务以固定汇率增长了9.7%，但在外汇影响后下降了1.3%，商业增长了9.4%，消费者增长了10.3%。

We are a major multinational company and are impacted by currency movements. After reaching a 20-year high in September, the dollar has been weakening and that will benefit our growth in the future. In North America, growth this quarter in Commercial Lines was led by our major accounts and specialty division, which grew 9.1%, followed by our middle-market and small commercial business, which grew 8.7% and renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses, was over 96%. In our international general insurance operations, retail commercial P&C grew 9% in constant dollar, while our London wholesale business grew about 7.5%. Retail commercial growth was led by Latin America, with premiums up nearly 13%, followed by growth of 8.5% in Asia-Pac and 6.5% in our UK, Ireland division.

我们是一家大型跨国公司，受到汇率变动的影响。美元汇率在 9 月份达到 20 年来的最高点后一直在走低，这将有利于我们未来的增长。在北美，本季度商业险业务的增长主要由我们的大客户和专业部门带动，增长了 9.1%，其次是我们的中型市场和小型商业业务，增长了 8.7%，零售商业业务的续保率超过了 96%。在我们的国际产险业务中，零售商业 P&C 以不变美元计算增长了 9%，而我们的伦敦批发业务增长了约 7.5%。零售商业业务的增长主要由拉丁美洲带动，保费增长了近 13%，其次是亚太地区增长了 8.5%，英国、爱尔兰分部增长了 6.5%。

In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, pricing conditions remain favorable for most lines of business. The vast majority of our portfolio is achieving favorable risk-adjusted returns. So like I said last quarter, in most lines, additional rate is required primarily to keep pace with loss costs, which again are hardly benign in both long-tail and short-tail lines.

就商业保赔费率环境而言，大多数业务的定价条件仍然有利。我们的绝大多数业务组合都实现了有利的风险调整后回报。因此，正如我在上一季度所说的那样，在大多数业务领域，需要增加费率主要是为了跟上损失成本的步伐，而损失成本在长尾和短尾业务领域都很难实现良性增长。

To illustrate, in the quarter, pricing for total North America Commercial P&C which includes both rate and the portion of exposure that supports rate increased 6.5%, with loss costs up 6.5% as well. Now that’s the headline. And let’s drill down further, because I think it’s more insightful. Pricing for commercial P&C, excluding financial lines and workers’ comp was up 10%, with loss costs trending 6.9%. Breaking P&C down a step further, property pricing is firming in response to catastrophe exposures, inflation, reinsurance pricing and availability. Short-tail pricing was up 14.7%, while loss costs were up 6.8%. Property insurance is an opportunity for us. For the majority of casualty lines, pricing is adequate. In the quarter, pricing for North America Casualty was up 7.5%, while loss cost trends were 6.9%.

在本季度，北美商业财产和意外险的总体定价，包括支持定价的费率和敞口部分，增长了6.5%，损失成本也上升了6.5%。这是主要新闻。让我们进一步深入分析，因为我认为这更有洞察力。不包括金融险和工人赔偿在内的商业财产和意外险定价上涨了10%，损失成本趋势为6.9%。再进一步细分财产和意外险，由于巨灾敞口、通货膨胀、再保险定价和可用性，财产定价正在加强。短期业务定价上涨了14.7%，而损失成本上涨了6.8%。财产保险对我们来说是一个机会。对于大多数意外险业务线来说，定价是合理的。在本季度，北美意外险定价上涨了7.5%，而损失成本趋势为6.9%。

Now given casualty loss cost trends, rates in most classes need to rise at an accelerated pace. There is little to no room for forgiveness. And here a special mention to excess casualty and auto-related liability is warranted. For Chubb, our minds are clear, and our playbook is consistent. In some lines like professional liability and workers’ comp, which includes risk management, the competitive environment is quite aggressive and rates have been falling for a number of quarters now in recognition of favorable pricing and favorable experience. However, if not careful, the market is in danger of overshooting the mark.

鉴于意外险的损失成本趋势，大多数类别的费率需要以更快的速度上升。几乎没有犯错的余地。在这里，特别提到超额意外险和与汽车相关的责任保险是有必要的。对于Chubb来说，我们的思路清晰，我们的策略是一致的。在一些业务线，如专业责任险和工人赔偿（包括风险管理），竞争环境非常激烈，费率已经连续几个季度下降，以反映有利的定价和经验。然而，如果不谨慎，市场有可能超出了目标。

In the quarter, rates and pricing for North America financial lines in aggregate were essentially flat. They were up 0.2%, while loss cost trends were up 5%. And in workers’ comp, which includes both primary comp and risk management, pricing was up 2.3% against a loss cost trend of 5.5%. Internationally, we continued to achieve improved rate to exposure across our commercial portfolio. In our international retail business, pricing was up about 9.5%. Rates varied by class and by region as well as country within region and loss costs are trending 6.2%.

本季度，北美金融业务的费率和定价总体基本持平。保险费率和定价上升了 0.2%，而损失成本趋势则上升了 5%。而在工人保险（包括基本保险和风险管理）方面，定价上升了 2.3%，而损失成本趋势为 5.5%。在国际业务方面，我们继续提高商业组合的风险率。在国际零售业务方面，定价上升了约 9.5%。费率因类别、地区和地区内国家而异，损失成本趋势为 6.2%。

Turning to our consumer businesses, in our North America high net worth personal lines business, again, net written premiums were up about 6%. Our true high net worth client segment, however, grew 12.5%. There is a flight to quality and capacity. In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of about 12.5%, while the homeowners’ loss cost trend is running about 10.5%.

在消费者业务方面，北美高净值个人业务的净承保保费也增长了约 6%。然而，我们真正的高净值客户部分增长了 12.5%。质量和能力都在提升。在房主业务方面，我们实现了约 12.5%的定价，而房主损失成本趋势约为 10.5%。

International consumer lines premiums grew over 10% in the quarter, again, in constant dollar. Our International A&H division had another strong quarter, with premiums up about 21%. Asia-Pac was up nearly 40%, with half of the growth coming from the Cigna acquisition, while Latin America and the UK each were up about 13.5%. Premiums in our international personal lines business were up less than 1% in constant dollar. In our international life insurance business, premiums doubled in constant dollar while life income overall was also up over 100%, both positively impacted by the addition of the Cigna Asia business, which is on track.

按不变美元计算，本季度国际消费者保险保费增长超过 10%。我们的国际 A&H 部门在本季度的表现再次强劲，保费增长了约 21%。亚太地区增长了近 40%，其中一半的增长来自于对 Cigna 的收购，而拉丁美洲和英国则分别增长了约 13.5%。按固定汇率计算，我们的国际个人业务保费增长不到 1%。在我们的国际寿险业务中，按固定美元计算，保费翻了一番，而寿险收入总体也增长了 100%，这都是受到了 Cigna 亚洲业务的积极影响，该业务正在按计划进行。

As we enter ‘23, while early days, growth in our Asia consumer business including non-life, life and A&H is widespread and strong, a combination of a strong external environment and our capabilities and presence. Consumer lending, increasing foot traffic across retail and banking operations and the resurgence of leisure and business travel are all contributing to strong growth. Leisure travel alone was up nearly 400% over prior year. And as China reopens from its strict pandemic controls, it will further stimulate growth in the region. Think trade, which benefits commercial lines and business travel and think tourist travel as the Chinese begin to travel again on holiday.

进入 23 年，虽然为时尚早，但我们的亚洲消费业务（包括非寿险、寿险和 A&H 业务）的增长广泛而强劲，这是强劲的外部环境与我们的能力和业务的结合。消费者贷款、零售和银行业务人流量的增加，以及休闲和商务旅行的复苏，都为强劲增长做出了贡献。仅休闲旅游一项就比去年增长了近 400%。随着中国从严格的大流行病控制中重新开放，将进一步刺激该地区的增长。考虑贸易，这将有利于商业航线和商务旅行；考虑旅游，因为中国人又开始度假旅行了。

As regards China, as you know, last quarter, we have received regulatory approval to increase our ownership in Huatai Insurance Group, to 83.2%. Since then, the transfer of shares from a number of separate shareholders has taken place and we have increased our ownership to 64%. The remaining 19% is expected to close in the next weeks or months.

关于中国，正如大家所知，上个季度，我们获得了监管部门的批准，将我们在华泰保险集团的持股比例提高到 83.2%。从那时起，一些独立股东的股份转让已经完成，我们的持股比例增至 64%。余下的 19% 预计将在未来几周或几个月内完成。

In summary, we had an outstanding year. And looking ahead, we are starting off on a strong foot in the first quarter overall. Conditions remain favorable in terms of continued growth for our businesses globally and then add the strong trajectory of growth from investment income. Despite the challenging macro environment, I am quite optimistic about our future and confident in our ability to outperform.

总之，我们度过了出色的一年。展望未来，我们在第一季度的整体表现强劲。全球业务持续增长，再加上投资收入的强劲增长，形势依然有利。尽管宏观环境充满挑战，但我对我们的未来相当乐观，并相信我们有能力实现超额收益。

I will now turn the call over to Peter and then we are going to come back and we are going to take your questions.

现在我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Thank you, Evan and good morning. As you have just heard, we continue to deliver strong underlying business and investment performance in the fourth quarter, leading to another year of record results. Book value and tangible book value per share increased 6.2% and 9.5% respectively since September. The increase reflects strong operating results, $544 million in dividends and share repurchases as well as net realized and unrealized gains of $1.6 billion after tax, including $1.3 billion in this income portfolio from declining interest rates and foreign currency translation gains of $594 million. This quarter’s mark-to-market investment gains follow prior quarter’s losses from a rising rate environment, reinforcing our view that these fluctuations in valuation, particularly on a high-quality fixed income portfolio are largely transient and don’t represent real economics for a buy and hold insurance company like Chubb.

谢谢，Evan，早上好。正如你刚才听到的，我们在第四季度继续实现了强劲的基础业务和投资表现，从而实现了又一年的创纪录业绩。自9月以来，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别增长了6.2%和9.5%。增长反映了强劲的运营结果、5.44亿美元的股息和股票回购，以及税后16亿美元的净实现和未实现收益，包括因利率下降导致的13亿美元收入组合收益和5940万美元的外币折算收益。本季度的市值变动投资收益紧随上季度因利率上升导致的亏损，这加强了我们的观点，即这些估值波动，特别是在高质量固定收益投资组合上的波动，主要是暂时性的，并不代表像Chubb这样的买入并持有保险公司的实际经济状况。

For the full year, book and tangible book value per share decreased 12.9% and 23.5%, whereas excluding AOCI they increased 5.3% and 3% respectively, including the dilutive impact on tangible equity of the Cigna acquisition. Our core operating return on tangible equity for the quarter and year was 18.6% and 17.2% respectively, while our core operating ROE for the quarter and year was 11.9% and 11.2%.

全年来看，每股账面价值和有形账面价值分别下降了12.9%和23.5%，如果不包括累积其他综合收益（AOCI），它们分别增长了5.3%和3%，这包括了Cigna收购对有形权益的稀释影响。我们本季度和全年的核心营业有形股本回报率分别为18.6%和17.2%，而我们本季度和全年的核心营业股本回报率（ROE）分别为11.9%和11.2%。

Turning to investments, adjusted net investment income for the quarter of over $1.1 billion topped last quarter’s record by more than 6% and was 24% higher than the prior year quarter. We anticipate this to continue to increase in 2023 through portfolio growth and a continuing attractive rate environment. And as such, we expect our quarterly adjusted net investment income to now be in the range of $1.135 billion to $1.155 billion. The quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $400 million, principally from winter storm Elliott. There were other weather-related events in the quarter, offset by changes from prior quarter’s cats. However, there was no change in our aggregate Hurricane Ian estimate. Catastrophe and crop insurance underwriting losses together added 6.6 percentage points to our P&C combined ratio.

在投资方面，本季度调整后的净投资收入超过 11 亿美元，比上一季度的记录高出 6% 以上，比去年同期高出 24%。我们预计，通过投资组合的增长和持续诱人的利率环境，2023 年的净投资收入将继续增长。因此，我们预计本季度调整后净投资收入将在 11.35 亿美元至 11.55 亿美元之间。本季度的税前灾难损失为 4 亿美元，主要来自冬季风暴埃利奥特。本季度还发生了其他与天气相关的事件，但与上一季度相比，这些事件的变化抵消了损失。不过，我们对飓风伊恩的总体估计没有变化。巨灾保险和农作物保险承保损失合计使我们的 P&C 综合比率增加了 6.6 个百分点。

We had favorable prior period development in our active companies in the quarter of $254 million mainly in the short-tail lines, primarily from commercial P&C lines of property, marine and agriculture from 2020 and 2021 accident years. In addition, there was adverse development of $87 million in our legacy runoff exposures, including $62 million related to asbestos, which was recognized as part of our annual reserve review.

在本季度，我们活跃的子公司有2.54亿美元的有利前期准备金发展，主要是在短期业务线，主要是来自2020年和2021年事故年度的商业财产、海上和农业的财产和意外险业务线。此外，我们遗留的业务流失敞口有8700万美元的不利发展，其中包括6200万美元与石棉相关，这是作为我们年度准备金审查的一部分而确认的。

Our paid-to-incurred ratio for the quarter was 102% of which about 8 percentage points related specifically to payments in our crop insurance program, which are typically higher in the fourth quarter each year. The paid-to-incurred ratio was 85%, excluding crops, cats and PPD.

我们本季度的赔付率是102%，其中大约8个百分点特别与我们作物保险计划中的支付有关，这些支付通常在每年第四季度较高。如果不包括农作物、巨灾和前期准备金发展，赔付率为85%。

International Life Insurance segment income post the Cigna acquisition is as expected, except for an adverse non-recurring $52 million adjustment in the quarter related to Huatai, the company’s partially owned insurance entity. This adjustment was to better align our accounting policies and procedures. In addition, the Life Insurance segment in total benefited from a reserve release of $60 million in the quarter related to our combined North America business. Our core operating effective tax rate was 17.5% for the quarter and 17.8% for the year, in line with previously guided range. Our expected annual core operating effective tax rate for 2023, we expect to be in the range of 18% to 19%.

收购 Cigna 后的国际寿险分部收入符合预期，但本季度与华泰（公司部分拥有的保险实体）有关的 5200 万美元非经常性不利调整除外。这一调整是为了更好地调整我们的会计政策和程序。此外，本季度寿险分部共受益于与北美合并业务相关的 6000 万美元准备金释放。本季度我们的核心营业有效税率为 17.5%，全年为 17.8%，与之前的指导范围一致。我们预计 2023 年的年度核心营业有效税率将在 18% 到 19% 之间。

On a final note, Chubb is adopting long-duration targeted improvement accounting guidance, or LDTI, as of January 1, 2023. This changes the accounting for long-duration contracts, which relates to our Life Insurance businesses. And this is an accounting change only, having no impact on the underlying economics. In the 10-K, we will disclose the historical book value impact as of 1 and 2 years ago, but as of year-end ‘22, we expect a net favorable but immaterial impact to book value.

最后，丘博将从 2023 年 1 月 1 日起采用长期定向改进会计指南（LDTI）。这将改变与我们寿险业务相关的长期合约的会计处理。这只是会计上的变化，对基本的经济效益没有影响。在 10-K 报告中，我们将披露 1 年和 2 年前的历史账面价值影响，但截至 22 年年底，我们预计账面价值将受到净有利但不重要的影响。

I’ll now turn the call back over to Karen.

现在我把电话转回给凯伦。

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you. And at this point, we’re happy to take your questions.

谢谢。现在，我们很高兴回答你们的问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of David Motemaden from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

[第一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您的电话已接通

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Hi, good morning. Thanks for the detail on the rate by line of business and loss trend by line. I thought that was helpful. I’m interested in the casualty market where it sounds like price is still above loss trend. Hearing again the need for additional rate here. I’m wondering if you’re seeing what the market’s discipline is in terms of getting that additional rate? Or if competition is picking up here at all, interest rates are higher. We’re obviously seeing some competition picking up in professional liability. So just wondering what you’re seeing in North America casualty.

嗨，早上好。感谢您详细介绍了各业务线的费率和各业务线的损失趋势。我认为这很有帮助。我对意外险市场很感兴趣，听起来价格仍高于损失趋势。我再次听到这里需要额外的费率。我想知道你是否看到了市场在获得额外费率方面的纪律？或者说，在费率走高的情况下，市场竞争是否有所加剧？很明显，我们看到职业责任险的竞争在加剧。所以，我只是想知道你们在北美意外险领域看到了什么。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. Look, I don’t think there is an increase in competition related to interest rates. And remember, look at the yield curve, what the market expect rates to be going out a couple of years. No one misses that. And rates are not at such a level that it would have a material impact, if you were thinking about cash flow underwriting the business and you have liability durations in your question that runs somewhere between 7 years and 25 years, depending on the line of business. So I would – I don’t think that’s – I’m taking time to talk about that because I listen to those – that kind of thinking, and you’re a smart guy, and others are I think you guys should think that through a little more. It’s more to do with them. And I don’t see an increase in competition. I see a pretty steady market. But what I do note in certain lines of business is either a lack of recognition of the loss cost environment naive at around loss cost environment, or just a failure of management to be in touch and drill in and show leadership, take action. And I just am concerned about that in certain lines where – when you think about it on a risk-adjusted adequate return basis, and that’s why I spiked out two lines in particular.

是的。我认为，与费率相关的竞争并没有增加。请记住，看看收益率曲线，市场预期未来几年的费率会是怎样。没有人会错过这一点。而且，费率还没有达到一个水平，如果你考虑现金流承保业务，并且你的负债期限在你的问题中，根据业务线的不同，从7年到25年不等，会有实质性影响。所以，我不认为这是——我花时间谈论这个问题是因为我听到了那些——那种思维方式，你是个聪明人，其他人也是，我认为你们应该更深入地思考这个问题。这更多地与他们有关。我并没有看到竞争的增加。我看到的是一个相当稳定的市场。但我确实注意到，在某些业务线上，要么是对损失成本环境的认识不足，要么是管理层未能接触并深入了解并展示领导力，采取行动。我只是对某些领域感到担忧——当你从风险调整后的合理回报角度考虑时，这就是为什么我特别强调了两条业务线。

I don’t think there is a recognition among most that to maintain discipline, you better keep pace with loss cost because there is no room and, in some cases, overshooting the mark and this can get away from you pretty quickly. We’re not in a benign inflation environment in casualty, and that has nothing to do with general inflation that has to do more with everything around so-called social inflation. And you can see it. It’s a trend that has footprints that go back a number of years, and it’s very, very clear. Then you have a couple of other lines, which I spike out separately from casualty where market condition – where pricing has been very good. And loss cost has been reasonable. And so you can understand rate adjustment, give back but be careful. It’s not endless.

我认为大多数人都没有认识到，要维持纪律，你最好跟上损失成本的步伐，因为没有余地，在某些情况下，超标会让你很快失去理智。我们所处的不是一个良性的意外事故通胀环境，这与一般通胀无关，更多的是与所谓的社会通胀有关。你可以看到这一点。这种趋势可以追溯到若干年前，非常非常明显。此外，还有其他几项业务，我将其与意外险分开来谈，这些业务的市场状况--定价一直很好。损失成本也很合理。因此，你可以理解费率调整、回馈，但要小心。这不是无止境的。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Right. Okay. That’s helpful. I appreciate that answer. And then just following up, maybe a question for Peter, could you talk about the drivers of prior period development in North America commercial between short tail and long tail lines?

好的Okay. - Right.That's helpful.谢谢你的回答。接着，我想问彼得一个问题，你能谈谈北美商业短尾和长尾线前期发展的驱动因素吗？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

I think all I’d say is if you looked at the prior year quarter there was a significant COVID-related release. So if you’re comparing, I think you just need to adjust for that.

我想我要说的是，如果你看上一季度的情况，会发现有大量与 COVID 相关的发布。因此，如果你要进行比较，我认为你只需要对此进行调整。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Great. Thank you. 太好了谢谢

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Last year, last quarter had a large COVID adjustment. So that’s why it’s hard to compare. You can’t compare quarter-on-quarter that way from year-to-year within North America commercial.

去年，上一季度的 COVID 调整幅度较大。因此很难进行比较。在北美商业领域，你无法进行季度与季度之间的比较。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Okay, great. Thank you. 好的，太好了。谢谢

Operator 操作员

And your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。您的电话已接通

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Good morning, Elyse. 早上好 伊丽丝

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Hi, good morning, Evan. My first question relates to your own reinsurance book. We’ve heard about some pretty strong rate increases at January 1. Did you guys choose to write more property cat reinsurance yourselves?

您好，Evan，早上好。我的第一个问题与您自己的再保险账簿有关。我们听说1月1日出现了相当强劲的费率上涨。你们是否选择自己承保更多的财产巨灾再保险？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. Elyse, just so you know, you’re breaking up a little bit. I think I got it, but you’re just be aware that it’s hard. You’re not coming through really clearly. I think you were talking about property cat and whether we see it as an opportunity. Look, we have a very clear mind about our standards, adjusted returns we would expect to see in property cat to increase our exposure. And we’re in the middle of the market. And so I’m not going to comment any further than that, except that if the conditions are right, from – in both terms and in pricing, then Chubb is a risk taker in property cat. We will increase. However, it’s not a business we need to chase by any means. And so we will only deploy additional capital to take more exposure if we like the trade. Beyond that, I know you want to know specifics and I’m hardly going to look forward and talk about it while we’re on the field of play. You’ll see the footprints after the fact.

是的。Elyse，只是让你知道，你的通话有点断断续续。我想我明白了，但你要意识到这很困难。你的声音传过来不是很清楚。我认为你在谈论财产巨灾保险，以及我们是否将其视为一个机会。看，我们对自己的标准非常清楚，我们希望在财产巨灾保险中看到的调整后回报，以增加我们的敞口。我们在市场中处于中间位置。所以我不会再进一步评论，除非条件在条款和定价方面都是正确的，那么Chubb就是财产巨灾保险中的风险承担者。我们会增长。然而，这不是我们以任何方式需要追逐的业务。所以我们只有在喜欢这笔交易的情况下，才会部署额外的资本来承担更多的敞口。除此之外，我知道你想知道具体细节，我几乎不会在比赛进行时向前看并谈论它。你会在事后看到脚印。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Okay, thank you. And then my second question, Evan, you mentioned commercial property rates picking up following Hurricane Ian. I would think as reinsurance rates move, there would be a trickle-down impact and perhaps rates get better there as we move through ‘23. Would you agree with that statement?

好的，谢谢。我的第二个问题，Evan，你提到商业财产费率在飓风Ian之后上升。我会认为随着再保险费率的变动，可能会有涓滴效应，也许到了2023年，费率会变得更好。你同意这个说法吗？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Elyse, I think if you listened to my commentary, I just said that. When I talked about the 14.8%, I believe it was increase in pricing. I mentioned the cat environment, I mentioned availability, I mentioned reinsurance availability and reinsurance pricing.

Elyse，我认为如果你听了我的评论，我就说了。当我谈到14.8%的增长时，我相信这是定价的提高。我提到了巨灾环境，我提到了可用性，我提到了再保险的可用性和再保险定价。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Okay. And do you think – as you think out, do you think property is probably one of the stronger growth opportunities within your commercial book in ‘23?

好的。你是否认为--在你思考的过程中，你是否认为房地产可能是 23 年商业账目中增长较快的机会之一？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I think I already made my comment about that property is an opportunity for Chubb is what I said only 10 minutes ago. I can’t stand on it any further than that.

我想我已经说过了，那块地对丘博来说是个机会，这是我 10 分钟前说的话。我不能再继续说下去了。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

Okay. Thanks, Evan. 好的谢谢，埃文

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Thanks. 谢谢。

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Newsome from Piper Sandler. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自 Piper Sandler 公司的 Paul Newsome。您的电话已接通

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Good morning. Thanks for the call rest of the year. I was hoping you could give us a little bit of additional color on what we’ve seen at Chubb from exposure changes over the last, say, couple of quarters, is that we move into 2023. And there are some folks including our strategists, that thinks we’re going to be in a recession sometime this year. I was wondering if – so what are the sensitivities among your books, what parts of your business would we see if it happens in the future and what parts would be less sensitive to assessments and exposure changes?

早上好感谢您在今年余下时间的来电。我希望你能给我们一点额外的信息，介绍一下我们从过去几个季度的风险变化中看到的丘博的情况，即我们将进入2023年。包括我们的策略师在内的一些人认为，今年某个时候我们将陷入经济衰退。我想知道，如果未来发生这种情况，你们的业务中哪些部分会比较敏感，哪些部分对评估和风险变化不太敏感？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes, I’m not going to go deep into that, but you – I will relate you back in my commentary where I said that the industry in casualty needs to get more rate to keep pace with loss cost and one of the things that is in my – on my mind in that regard is you can’t rely on price as much going forward in casualty, which is about sale, you rate off of sale or you rate off of payroll, you rate off of human for business-related exposures. It could be square footage and to measure traffic of consumers coming through. These are all economically related exposure movements. And that will – whether we have recession or we don’t have recession, I don’t think that’s the point. The point really is as economic activity relative to ‘22 and ‘21, certainly, is going to be slower. And so you need rate, pure rate and can rely less on the exposure on the percentage of exposure to help the performance when you think about rate to exposure and inflation and loss cost. That is more of what’s on my mind when I think about exposure. I don’t think about it as much in terms of growth overall and the support of our growth rate. And I think our growth rate will be just fine.

是的，我不会深入探讨这个问题，但你--我会让你回想起我的评论，我在评论中说，意外险行业需要提高费率，以跟上损失成本的步伐，在这方面，我的一个想法是，在未来的意外险行业中，你不能再像以前那样依赖价格了，这与销售有关，你可以根据销售额或工资额来计算费率，你可以根据与业务相关的风险来计算费率。它可以是平方英尺，也可以是消费者的流量。这些都是与经济相关的风险变动。无论经济是否衰退，我认为这都不是问题的关键。关键在于，相对于 22 年和 21 年，经济活动肯定会放缓。因此，你需要费率，纯费率，当你考虑费率与风险、通胀和损失成本的关系时，可以减少对风险敞口百分比的依赖，以帮助提高业绩。这是我在考虑风险敞口时更多考虑的因素。我不太考虑整体增长和对我们增长率的支持。我认为我们的增长率会很好。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Then maybe as well, can you talk a little bit about the ability of both Chubb and the industry to pass on higher reinsurance costs to sort of primary commercial lines. Things have changed a little bit, I think, structurally over the years. And I think I’m not sure what the sensitivity is today in terms of how quickly the primaries lines will respond to higher reinsurance costs in today’s environment. But any thoughts there would be great, I think just to help us out?

那么，您能否也谈谈丘博和整个行业将较高的再保险费用转嫁给初级商业保险的能力。我认为，这些年来，情况在结构上发生了一些变化。我不确定在今天的环境下，主要商业险种对较高的再保险费用的反应速度有多快。但如果有任何想法，我想对我们会有很大的帮助。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Well, I can’t speak to everybody else. And so you’ll just have to stay tuned and figure that out, Paul. But beyond that, I know when I think about short tail lines where you’re seeing reinsurance price increases, I’m not worried from a Chubb point of view of achieving rate and price to both keep pace or exceed loss costs. What we expect for cat and to manage increased reinsurance costs. I think that – and that’s why I gave you the fourth quarter pricing I think it’s – I think that speaks for itself that way.

嗯，我不能代表其他人发言。所以，保罗，你只能继续关注并自己弄清楚。但除此之外，我知道，当我考虑到短期业务线，你看到再保险价格上涨时，我从Chubb的角度来看，并不担心实现费率和价格以跟上或超过损失成本。我们对巨灾的预期以及管理增加的再保险成本。我认为——这就是为什么我给了你第四季度的定价，我认为——我认为这本身就能说明问题。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Thanks a lot. And I will appreciate. That will help as always.

非常感谢。我会感激不尽的。这将一如既往地帮助我。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You are welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Peters from Raymond James. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）。您的电话已接通

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Good morning, Greg. 早上好，格雷格。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Good morning, everyone. So obviously, you commented this on your comments. So just letting you know I heard your comments, but I’m looking for further clarification.

大家早上好。很明显，你们在评论中提到了这一点。我只是想让你们知道，我听到了你们的评论，但我希望得到进一步的澄清。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I can just repeat myself.

我可以再重复一遍。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Well, you didn’t say much about this. So hopefully, I can get a little more out of view. But I was I intrigued by your comment about the retention in commercial at 96%. And maybe you could give us some historical context and then more importantly, you talk about the moving pieces of the market, financial lines, workers’ comp? Do you have a view of how that might trend over the near-term? Are you willing to share with us should add?

好吧，你没怎么说。所以，希望我能从您的观点中得到更多的启发。不过，我对你说商业保险的留存率为 96% 感到很感兴趣。也许你可以给我们一些历史背景，然后更重要的是，你谈到了市场的动向、金融项目、工人赔偿？您对近期的发展趋势有什么看法吗？您是否愿意与我们分享您的看法？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. On your first question, it’s on a premium basis, the 96%. So it’s both policy count, customer retention in terms of unit count, and it has the impact of price of rate in there in the 96%. So on a policy count basis, on a customer retention basis, it is a lower number, but it’s – but on historic earns basis, it’s very high. It’s very stable our renewal book of business. And I think that’s reasonably true for the industry given where you are, there was so much movement of customer during the hardest part of the cycle in COVID and all of that. And as people pulled back capacity and so many accounts had to find a new home. And then you find that there is more stability in retention of customers, both distribution do they want to move it, the customers themselves don’t want. And so you have more of a stability that way. So, that’s running at a high level. When I look forward on financial lines and comp, look, I can only give you – if I am going to prognosticate to you, I can only prognosticate what I would think would be logical and markets are never logical. There is all kinds of players. I do see in financial lines, more of the established players really know the businesses are more stable and showing more stability and recognizing that, okay, there has been – where are we on a risk-adjusted and at an expected loss cost basis. They have more insight into that and then a lot of small one of Visa [ph]. And so it creates a little chaos in the market that way, but I see a little more stability that way right now beginning to emerge. In comp, I don’t know what to tell you. The market has to draw a line and I think that moment of truth is coming.

是的。关于你的第一个问题，这是以保费为基础的，即 96%。因此，从单位数量来看，它既包括保单数量，也包括客户保有量，而且在 96% 的保费中还有费率价格的影响。因此，从保单数量和客户保留率来看，这个数字较低，但从历史收入来看，这个数字非常高。我们的续保业务非常稳定。我认为这在整个行业都是合理的，因为在 COVID 周期最困难的时期，客户流动非常频繁。随着产能的缩减，许多客户不得不寻找新的归宿。然后你会发现，客户的留存更加稳定，无论是分销还是客户本身都不希望转移客户。这样一来，客户的稳定性就更高了。因此，这是在高水平上运行。当我展望未来的财务状况时，我只能告诉你--如果我要预言，我只能预言我认为合乎逻辑的事情，而市场从来就不是合乎逻辑的。有各种各样的玩家。我确实看到，在金融业务方面，更多的老牌公司确实知道业务更加稳定，表现出更多的稳定性，并认识到，好吧，一直以来--在风险调整和预期损失成本的基础上，我们的情况如何。他们对此更有洞察力，而很多小的 Visa 公司则不然。因此，这种方式在市场上造成了一些混乱，但我认为这种方式现在开始变得更加稳定。我不知道该怎么说。市场必须划清界限，我认为真相大白的时刻即将到来。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Yes, that makes sense. Another area that Peter commented on, it seems kind of important. And I am going to have to review the comments in the transcript. But Peter, maybe you can go back. The gives and takes out of the life insurance, you talked about assimilating the accounting and then you talked about some other headwinds that happened in the fourth quarter. Can you go through that and maybe give us a little additional color on that?

是的，那很有道理。彼得评论的另一个领域似乎也很重要。我可能需要在记录中回顾一下评论。但是彼得，也许你可以回顾一下。你在谈到人寿保险的得失时，谈到了吸收会计处理，然后你又谈到了第四季度发生的一些其他不利因素。你能详细解释一下，并可能给我们一些额外的细节吗？

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

So, the one-time charge I have mentioned, and it’s a non-recurring charge was related to Huatai as it relates to aligning our accounting policies as our ownership levels increased and that was $52 million. There was an additional, which I didn’t say about $8 million of FX impact. And so that’s how I think about it. If you are looking at the international life insurance business, the reported income and adjusting for those two things, that would give you more of a sense of how we view ongoing income coming out of that business, which is why we spiked out the largest of the two, and I will just highlight the one other one.

因此，我提到的一次性费用是与华泰有关的非经常性费用，因为随着我们所有权水平的提高，我们需要调整会计政策，这笔费用为 5200 万美元。此外，我还提到了约 800 万美元的外汇影响。这就是我的想法。如果你看的是国际寿险业务的报告收入，并对这两项进行调整，你会更清楚地了解我们是如何看待该业务的持续收入的，这就是为什么我们把这两项中最大的一项剔除了，我只强调另外一项。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

So, in our minds, that’s like that brings you to about $175 million.

因此，在我们看来，这就相当于给你带来了大约 1.75 亿美元。

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

It’s about $60 million putting the two together.

这两项加起来大约需要 6000 万美元。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Okay. Got it. 好的明白了

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Excellent what it will be. But to be very clear, the $52 million, we view very much is one-time to align policies as we have gotten closer to and more insight.

这将是一个很好的结果。但要明确的是，我们认为这 5200 万美元在很大程度上是一次性的，以便在我们更接近和更深入了解的情况下调整政策。

Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯

Got it. Thanks for the answers.

知道了。感谢您的回答。

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui from Barclays. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。您的电话已接通。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Thank you. Good morning. I would like to go back to the discussion on casualty. I fully understand that rate needs to increase to keep up with loss cost trends. But there are things you could do on the structural side, are you making any meaningful changes in attachment points or deductible? One of your competitors mentioned an inflation is causing more losses to creep into the excess layer?

谢谢。早上好。我想回到关于意外险的讨论。我完全理解费率需要提高才能跟上损失成本的趋势。但在结构方面，你们可以做一些事情，你们是否在附加点或免赔额方面做了任何有意义的改变？你们的一个竞争对手提到，通货膨胀导致更多的损失进入自负层？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes, of course. That’s all that – listen we can track attachment point changes and all of that and ventilating of layers and all that good stuff. So, yes, and that’s all baked into our thinking, of course.

是的，当然。听着，我们可以追踪附着点的变化和所有这些变化，以及层间通风和所有这些好东西。所以，是的，当然，这些都融入了我们的思维。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Okay, got it. And we actually got more color from you on loss cost trends by business line this quarter. And you mentioned just sticking with North American casualty that loss costs were 6.9%. Can you give context how that’s trended versus prior quarters? And if you could also see….

好的，知道了。实际上，我们从你那里得到了更多关于本季度各业务线损失成本趋势的信息。你刚才提到北美意外险的损失成本为 6.9%。您能否介绍一下与前几个季度相比的趋势？如果您能看到....

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Stable. 稳定。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Stable, okay. And if you could tease out if this is a level you are observing right now, are you using a higher projected loss trend when you think about risk-adjusted returns?

稳定，好的。如果你能指出这是否是你现在观察到的水平，你在考虑风险调整收益时是否使用了更高的预计损失趋势？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I am really not going to overly dwell on this subject now. So, I am going to move along. But what – the only other piece of information I will give you is that the loss cost trends we have, I gave you an overall and that means it is a mix of primary in excess and all of that baked into it. It is stable. Our view is stable at this time and we constantly look at it, and I gave you a lot of information in the second quarter and third quarter around inflation and how we adjusted for our views and forward views on inflation, both in the pricing and in our actual reserving. And so I am going to stop right there.

我现在真的不想在这个问题上过多纠缠。所以，我将继续前进。但我要告诉大家的另一个信息是，我们的损失成本趋势，我给了大家一个总体的趋势，这意味着它是一个主要的超额和所有这些因素的混合体。这是稳定的。在第二季度和第三季度，我向大家提供了很多关于通胀的信息，以及我们如何在定价和实际准备金中调整我们对通胀的看法和前瞻性看法。我就说到这里。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Got it. Thank you. 知道了谢谢

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You’re welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思。您的电话已接通

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Hey, thanks. So I am just curious, given where your rate is and loss trend is there more room here as we look into 2023 for underlying margin improvement in the business, or are we getting close to kind of a good, solid acceptable return in the business?

谢谢。我只是很好奇，考虑到你们的费率和亏损趋势，到 2023 年，我们是否还有更多的空间来提高业务的基本利润率，或者说，我们是否已经接近一个良好的、稳固的、可接受的业务回报率？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I think you – I mean look at it by ratios, Brian. I think they are just stellar. They are world-class returns and I am very happy with the returns in our portfolio. And as far as whether they would get any better, well, stay tuned.

我觉得你--我是说按比例来看，布莱恩。我认为它们非常出色。它们是世界级的回报，我对我们投资组合的回报非常满意。至于它们是否会变得更好，敬请期待。

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Okay. Thanks. And then the second question…

好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢第二个问题...

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You know, I don’t give forward guidance…

你知道，我不给前方指导......

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

I was hoping. 我希望

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I know you guy. I love you dearly. It’s a good try.

我认识你我深爱着你这是个不错的尝试

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Okay. The second one, I am just curious – thanks for the comments on capital management. I know you guys have done a ton this year, and it’s great, but it did slow in the fourth quarter. Was there anything going on? Anything with respect to thoughts that’s why you slowed the share buyback in the fourth quarter relative to call it the third quarter?

好的。第二个问题，我很好奇--感谢你们对资本管理的评论。我知道你们今年做了很多工作，这很好，但第四季度确实有所放缓。有什么进展吗？你们在第四季度相对于第三季度放缓了股票回购的原因是什么？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

No. And that’s why I really did want to take time and step back and we all look at perspective together of our capital management policy and how it translated to numbers. And I mean it’s a stunning amount of capital that we have used. I mean it speaks to our stewardship of capital and our earning power over the couple of years. And I wanted to create that context and perspective, nothing has changed at all in how we manage, think about managing capital and buybacks is just one dimension of that as you know. And we have a buyback authorization. And we have a bunch remaining within that. And we say that as we do, when you read it, that we will repurchase up to that amount. And we are just steady as she goes. Nothing has changed about how we view it.

不，这就是为什么我真的想花点时间，退后一步，让我们一起看看我们的资本管理政策，以及它是如何转化为数字的。我的意思是，我们使用的资本数量令人惊叹。我的意思是，这说明了我们对资本的管理以及我们这几年的盈利能力。我想说明的是，我们管理资本的方式和角度没有任何改变，回购只是其中的一个方面。我们有回购授权。在此范围内，我们还有很多剩余。我们说，当我们这样做的时候，当你读到它的时候，我们将回购达到这个数额。我们只是稳扎稳打。我们的观点没有任何改变。

Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯

Brian, maybe to revisit the context just to what Evan said, so we have about $1.6 billion left, so up to $1.6 billion through the first half of this year. And one more point in context as we looked at it. And this is not the framework we use this has come up on a prior call. But buybacks and dividends of $4.4 billion aggregate to about 75% of our income for the year, which we think is a reasonable way to compared to others. But it’s not actually how we manage it.

布莱恩，也许我们可以重温一下埃文所说的背景，我们还剩下大约 16 亿美元，所以到今年上半年最多还有 16 亿美元。在我们研究它的过程中，还有一点需要说明。这不是我们使用的框架，这在之前的电话会议上已经出现过。但 44 亿美元的回购和分红合计约占全年收入的 75%，我们认为与其他公司相比，这是一种合理的方式。但实际上我们并不是这样管理的。

Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思

Got it. Thank you. 知道了谢谢

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特。您的电话已接通

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Hey. Good morning. First one I had is actually a follow-up on the last question. On the capital front, when you think through how strong the margins are, as you pointed out, and price adequacy across a lot of your business in a pretty strong place balanced with some of the comments you are making about the forward-looking casualty markets and so forth. How does that make you feel about your capital and your willingness to deploy into organic business at the moment, when we think about strong starting point, and the comments you have made about the next year in casualty potentially?

嘿，早上好。我的第一个问题实际上是上一个问题的后续。在资本方面，正如你所指出的，当你考虑到你的利润率有多高，你的许多业务的价格充足性处于相当高的位置，同时你对前瞻性的意外伤害市场等发表了一些评论。当我们考虑到强劲的起点，以及你对明年意外险市场的看法时，你对你的资本和你目前部署到有机业务的意愿有什么看法？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Look, we have plenty of capital and firepower to support organic growth on our appetite, and I already said it around property, and it extends to any line of business. If we like the terms and the pricing on a risk-adjusted basis, we will grow our exposure period. Is that something to say. Volatility, if I am paid to take it.

听着，我们有充足的资金和火力来支持我们的有机增长，我已经说过这是围绕房地产的，它延伸到任何业务领域。如果我们在风险调整的基础上喜欢条款和定价，我们就会增加我们的风险敞口。这是不是可以这么说。波动性，如果有人付钱让我承担的话。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Understood. Second question was also a growth question, but on the life insurance business. Just wanted to see if you could help us think through now that you have completed the Cigna acquisition and you get into some of the integration and so forth, what does that look like and thinking out over the next year or 2 years in terms of being a growth engine for the company?

明白。第二个问题也是关于增长的，但涉及寿险业务。我只想知道，既然你们已经完成了对 Cigna 的收购，并进入了整合阶段，你们能否帮助我们思考一下，在未来一年或两年内，公司的增长引擎是什么样的？

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Yes. I think it is both in earnings and it is both a source of earnings growth, and it is a source of revenue growth, particularly in Asia. And it is in both the risk ends of life insurance, which think about more accident and health oriented, which I have gone into detail about that. As well as protection, more traditional protection and savings business, think about it through a variety of distribution channels, agency direct marketing, telephone-based and the fast emergence of digital channels. Think about it in partnership with our non-life business, which are very active that way and that’s a competitive advantage for Chubb in life and Asia’s. Our integrated capability and distribution and product among life and non-life together to the same customers. Think about the growing consumer base. Middle income, in particular, and then high net worth, particularly in certain territories, China and Hong Kong based and the middle income from Korea to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and think about this is the most dynamic region in the world when you think about long-term wealth creation. And I think the next 1 year or 2 years, sure, look good, but that’s not what’s on my mind. It’s the next 5 years to 10 years and how it’s now 20% of our business, Asia, and the majority of it is consumer, not commercial. And when I think across all lines, including the life and that business, to me, will represent a greater percentage of Chubb. And over time, you can’t measure it just quarter-to-quarter. But over a period of time, when you look at it, we will out – its growth trajectory will outpace the rest of the company.

是的。我认为这既是盈利的来源，也是盈利增长的来源，尤其是亚洲的增长。它涉及寿险的风险端，更多地考虑意外伤害和健康导向，我已经详细讨论过这一点。还有更传统的保护和储蓄业务，通过各种分销渠道考虑，包括代理直销、电话基础和数字渠道的快速出现。考虑与我们的非寿险业务合作，在这方面非常活跃，这对Chubb在亚洲的寿险是一个竞争优势。我们在寿险和非寿险之间的综合能力、分销和产品提供给相同的客户。考虑到不断增长的消费者基础。特别是中等收入群体，然后是高净值人士，特别是在中国和香港以及韩国到泰国、越南、印尼的中等收入群体，考虑到这是世界上长期财富创造最具活力的地区。我认为未来1年或2年当然看起来很好，但我考虑的不是这个。我考虑的是未来5到10年，以及它现在占我们业务的20%，亚洲，其中大部分是消费者，而不是商业。当我考虑到所有业务线，包括寿险业务时，对我来说，它将代表Chubb的更大比例。而且随着时间的推移，你不能仅仅按季度来衡量。但经过一段时间，当你看到它时，我们会——它的增长轨迹将超过公司的其他部分。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you.

拿到了。非常有用。谢谢。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

You’re welcome. 不客气。

Operator 操作员

Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski from BMO. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。您的电话已接通

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Hey. Good morning. First question is on the helpful paid-to-incurred ratio comments you provided us on the call, and obviously, we get them from the Qs and Ks too. But I was looking back, I can see that the underlying paid-to-incurred the items you called out has increased to 85%, up year-over-year from 81%. But if I look kind of back at pre-COVID years, pre, I guess substantial rate increases in terms of conditions changes, too, obviously, it was running in the low-90s. So, just curious at a high level, if you feel this ratio is kind of running kind of a little better than you expected? And maybe that’s for a good reason given the substantial changes in the marketplace over the last few years.

嗨，早上好。第一个问题是关于您在电话中提供的有益的赔付率评论，我们当然也能从季度报告和年度报告中得到这些信息。但我回顾了一下，发现您指出的基础赔付率已经上升到85%，同比从81%上升。但如果我回顾一下疫情前的年份，我想在条件变化方面也有显著的费率增长，显然，它运行在90%的低位。所以，只是好奇在高层次上，如果您觉得这个比率是否运行得比预期的要好一些？也许由于过去几年市场发生了重大变化，这是一个好的理由。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

Well, I think it tells you a few things. We have grown our exposure a lot. And your first incurred losses and we are in a fast, we have been in a faster growth trajectory. So, when you conceptualize, we have grown more quickly exposure, incurred losses come and grow at a certain pace before the paids come through. So, on one hand, you have that. And then on the other hand, you have the strength and maybe it speaks ultimately to the strength of our reserves. And let’s just wait and see over time. It’s nothing, but good news.

我认为它告诉了你几件事。我们的敞口增长了很多。你首先发生的损失，我们在一个快速发展的轨迹上。所以，当你概念化时，我们的敞口增长得更快，发生的损失以一定速度增长，然后赔付才会体现出来。所以，一方面，你有这个。另一方面，你有实力，也许它最终说明了我们准备金的实力。让我们拭目以待。这没有什么，只是好消息。

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Thanks. That’s helpful. Follow-up is just I am curious if you could provide us with a kind of update on strategic priorities as regards to North America commercial kind of moving down market into small, medium-sized employer competitive sandbox. Is that still an inorganic strategic priority? And is M&A also on the table there? Thanks.

谢谢。这很有帮助。跟进一下，我只是好奇，您是否能向我们提供有关北美商业战略优先事项的更新，比如向小中型雇主竞争沙箱市场的下移。这是否仍然是一个非有机的战略优先事项？并购是否也在考虑之中？谢谢。

Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格

I will try to have M&A on the table. No, there is no M&A. I am looking at a table that is empty at the moment. It’s organic growth and we are endeavoring along and it is very digital and modern centric. And in concert with our middle market and lower middle market business. And the two of those, while the small commercial itself gets modernized into a digital enterprise, it is a consistent and very intense strategy in terms of management focus, resource and attention. I am looking at John Lupica, I am looking at John Keogh and we have the most senior executives with their eyes and Julie Dillman, who runs all of our IT and Ops and drives our transformation. From that end, we have got so much executive talent just focused and committed that this is an important future business to Chubb. And it is just – it’s consistent and it’s – you grind it out, yard-by-yard.

我会尽量把并购放在桌面上。不，没有并购。我现在看到的是一张空桌。我们正在努力实现有机增长，而且是以数字化和现代化为中心。这与我们的中型市场和中低端市场业务是一致的。这两项业务在将小型商业本身现代化为数字企业的同时，在管理重点、资源和关注度方面，也是一项一致且非常密集的战略。约翰-卢皮卡（John Lupica）、约翰-基奥（John Keogh）和我们最高级的管理人员都在关注着我们，朱莉-迪尔曼（Julie Dillman）也在关注着我们，她负责管理我们所有的 IT 和运营，并推动我们的转型。从这一角度来看，我们有如此多的高管人才，他们都专注于并承诺这是丘博未来的一项重要业务。这就是--始终如一，一码一码地磨出来的。

Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基

Thank you. 谢谢。

Operator 操作员

And there are no further questions at this time. Ms. Karen Beyer, I will turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

现在没有其他问题了。凯伦-拜尔女士，我现在请你致闭幕词。

Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔

Thank you everyone for joining us today. And if you have any questions, follow-up questions, we will be around to take your call. Enjoy the day. Thanks.

感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何问题或后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。祝您愉快谢谢。

Operator 操作员

This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。现在可以挂断电话。