The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2022 Results Conference Call February 28, 2023 9:30 AM ET

Company Participants 公司参与者

Doug Constantine - Director, IR

Doug Constantine - 投资关系总监

Tricia Griffith - CEO

特里西娅-格里菲斯 - 首席执行官

Jim Haas - Business Leader, Personal Lines Telematics

Jim Haas - 个人车险远程信息处理业务主管

Cory Fischer - Business Leader, Commercial Lines Product Development

Cory Fischer - 商业产品开发业务主管

John Sauerland - CFO

约翰-绍尔兰 - 首席财务官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Michael Zaremski - BMO

David Motemaden - Evercore ISI

Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs

亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团

Andrew Kligerman - Credit Suisse

Andrew Kligerman - 瑞士信贷

Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo

Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行

Tracy Benguigui - Barclays

Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行

Josh Shanker - Bank of America

Josh Shanker - 美国银行

Meyer Shields - KBW

Paul Newsome - Piper Sandler

保罗-纽瑟姆 - 派珀-桑德勒

Gregory Peters - Raymond James

格雷戈里-彼得斯 - 雷蒙德-詹姆斯

Michael Ward - Citi

迈克尔-沃德 - 花旗银行

Ryan Tunis - Autonomous

Ryan Tunis - 自主

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive’s Fourth Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today’s event.

早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第四季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，将主持今天的活动。

The Company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the Company’s website. This quarter includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CE and the presentation were previously recorded.

除已在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司将不提供与业绩相关的详细评论。本季度报告包括对公司特定业务的介绍，随后是与公司领导团队成员的问答环节。行政总裁的开场白和演讲之前已录制。

Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with the leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.

在之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用本次活动 90 分钟的剩余时间，与我们录制的发言中提到的领导人以及我们管理团队的其他成员进行现场问答。

As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today’s event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.

To begin today, I’m pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?

首先，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯，她将为我们做一些开场白。特里西娅？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today.

早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。

2022 was among the toughest years of Progressive’s 85 years. The continued effects of the pandemic, high inflation and the largest hurricane in our history all played a role in a tumultuous environment. Throughout these challenges, Progressive people came together in unity and delivered once again beating our goal of a calendar year 96 combined ratio while growing both written premiums and policies in force.

2022 年是 Progressive 85 年来最艰难的一年。大流行病的持续影响、高通胀和我们历史上最大的飓风都在动荡的环境中发挥了作用。在这些挑战面前，Progressive 人团结一致，再一次实现了我们的目标，即综合比率达到 96，同时承保保费和有效保单均有所增长。

The pride that I feel in all of the people of Progressive is indescribable. We have met all challenges head on and continued to deliver the best-in-class results our stakeholders expect. Our ability to meet these challenges is embedded in our culture, which is built on our newly updated four cornerstones, which are who we are, which is our core values, why we are here, which is our purpose. We revised our purpose to be, we exist to help people move forward and live fully. Our modified purpose builds on the legacy of our core values and our history of challenging the status quo to accelerate progress and equity. We modify the purpose to better unify and guide our organization.

我对 Progressive 全体员工的自豪之情难以言表。我们迎难而上，不断取得利益相关者所期望的一流业绩。我们应对这些挑战的能力植根于我们的文化，而我们的文化建立在我们最新更新的四大基石之上，即我们是谁，这是我们的核心价值观，我们为什么在这里，这是我们的宗旨。我们修改后的宗旨是：我们的存在是为了帮助人们向前迈进，过上充实的生活。我们修改后的宗旨以我们的核心价值观和我们挑战现状以加快进步和公平的历史为基础。我们修改宗旨是为了更好地统一和指导我们的组织。

Where we are headed, which is our vision. We expanded our vision to include business owners, so it now provides a more holistic view of all the customers we are privileged to serve. And how we will get there, which is the four pillars of our strategy. We’ve updated these two cornerstones to better reflect the evolution of our company and to ensure our culture adapt to the ever-changing environment we operate in. While our business will continue to progress, we will always seek to maintain the things that make Progressive, Progressive.

我们的方向，也就是我们的愿景。我们扩大了愿景范围，将企业主也纳入其中，因此现在可以更全面地了解我们有幸服务的所有客户。我们将如何实现目标，这是我们战略的四大支柱。我们更新了这两大基石，以更好地反映公司的发展历程，并确保我们的企业文化能够适应不断变化的经营环境。虽然我们的业务将继续发展，但我们将始终努力保持使 Progressive 成为 Progressive 的要素。

In today’s call, we’ll once again focus on the strategy cornerstone and specifically, we’ll discuss the pillar of competitive prices. Competitive prices means not just offering the best rate, but also the most accurate rate driven by pricing accuracy, expense discipline and industry-leading segmentation.

在今天的电话会议中，我们将再次聚焦战略基石，特别是讨论有竞争力的价格这一支柱。有竞争力的价格不仅意味着提供最优惠的价格，还意味着由定价准确性、支出纪律和行业领先的细分所驱动的最准确的价格。

As we have said for the last few quarters, we believe the major personal auto rate increases are likely behind us. In the fourth quarter, we continued to raise personal auto rates but at a pace slower than in late 2021 and early 2022. While some states are still waiting on filings to be approved by their respective regulators, we believe the majority of states are nearing rate adequacy, and our intent is to continue to increase rates commensurate with future loss trends.

正如我们在过去几个季度所说的那样，我们认为个人汽车费率的大幅上调可能已经过去。第四季度，我们继续上调个人汽车保险费率，但上调速度低于 2021 年底和 2022 年初。虽然一些州仍在等待各自监管机构批准申请，但我们相信大多数州的费率已接近适当水平，我们打算继续根据未来的损失趋势提高费率。

Based on public rate filings, we know that our competitors are raising rates to address their own profitability concerns. And as they have done so, we’ve seen our relative competitiveness improve, which has resulted in improving retention strong quote growth and high conversion.

根据公开的费率申报，我们知道我们的竞争对手正在提高费率，以解决自身的盈利问题。在他们提高费率的同时，我们的相对竞争力也得到了提高，这使得我们的保有量不断增加，报价增长强劲，转换率也很高。

We’ve now actually seen some competitors surpass our post-COVID rate take, which should help us sustain those improvement trends. As a result, we finished 2022 with the best fourth quarter for personal auto new application volume in our history, which contributed to growing our personal auto PIFs 3% in 2022 while also running a lower acquisition expense ratio than 2021. We’re continuously evaluating our media budget, and we’ll continue to use media efficiently as we enter 2023, and we will look to capitalize on this hard market.

实际上，我们现在看到一些竞争对手超过了我们 COVID 后的费率收取，这应该有助于我们维持这些改善趋势。结果，我们以我们历史上个人汽车新申请量最好的第四季度结束了 2022 年，这有助于我们在 2022 年将个人汽车 PIFs 增长了 3%，同时还运行了比 2021 年更低的获取费用比率。我们正在持续评估我们的媒体预算，并且我们将在进入 2023 年时继续有效使用媒体，并寻求利用这个艰难的市场。。

The higher direct acquisition expense ratio in January is indicative of our opportunistic stance, and it reflects the confidence we have of current rate levels in most states at this time. Of course, if the last three years have taught us anything, it’s that the future is unpredictable. So, we will continue to monitor the business carefully and navigate as needed to grow as fast as possible while delivering a calendar year ‘96 combined ratio.

一月份较高的直接获取费用比率表明了我们的机会主义立场，它反映了我们对目前大多数州的费率水平的信心。当然，如果过去三年教会了我们什么，那就是未来是不可预测的。因此，我们将继续仔细监控业务，并根据需要进行调整，以尽可能快地增长，同时实现日历年‘96的综合比率。

As I said in my annual shareholders letter, segmentation is a key facet of our competitive prices pillar, and nowhere is that more evident than in our investment in usage-based insurance products, which will be the topic of today’s presentation. Progressive was a first mover in usage-based insurance. We have had a UBI offering since 1996 when we launched our first product called Autograph. This first effort was limited by the technology at the time and required a professional mechanic to install equipment in a customer’s car at a considerable expense.

正如我在年度股东信中所说，细分市场是我们具有竞争力的价格支柱的一个重要方面，这一点在我们对基于使用情况的保险产品的投资中体现得最为明显，这也是今天演讲的主题。Progressive 是基于使用的保险的先行者。自 1996 年我们推出第一款名为 Autograph 的产品以来，我们就已经推出了基于使用情况的保险产品。这项首次尝试受到当时技术的限制，需要专业机械师在客户的汽车上安装设备，费用不菲。

That first attempt evolved to TripSense in 2004, which was our first self install option. And then in 2008, we launched MyRate, which is where we first employed cellular technology to upload data to our systems. And then in 2010, we launched Snapshot, which we consider the start of modern UBI program. We moved from our discount-only model to one that included the possibility of a surcharge in 2014. And in 2016, we launched the Snapshot app, which allowed the customer to use a mobile phone app instead of the plug-in device. Our most recent addition is continuous monitoring, which began its rollout in the summer of 2022.

In parallel to our efforts in Personal Lines, we were developing UBI for commercial auto products. This culminated in our first broad commercial offering of Smart Haul, in 2018, which allows us to provide usage-based insurance to truckers in partnership with providers of electronic-logging devices. We also expanded the Snapshot program for commercial auto with Snapshot ProView in 2020, which includes fleet monitoring services to small businesses.

与我们在个人险领域的努力并行的是，我们正在为商业汽车产品开发 UBI。最终，我们在 2018 年首次广泛推出了智能运输（Smart Haul）商业产品，该产品允许我们与电子记录设备供应商合作，为卡车司机提供基于使用情况的保险。我们还在 2020 年通过 Snapshot ProView 扩展了商业汽车 Snapshot 计划，其中包括为小型企业提供车队监控服务。

Throughout our history of usage-based insurance, we have collected billions of miles of data and invested in a process of continuous improvement in our UBI products. Today, UBI is our most predictive rating variable, and it provides unparalleled rate accuracy to our customers. Through this, we’ve continuously educated our customers where today UBI adoption is at near historical highs.

在我们以使用为基础的保险历史中，我们收集了数十亿英里的数据，并投资于不断改进我们的 UBI 产品。如今，UBI 是我们最具预测性的评级变量，它为我们的客户提供了无与伦比的费率准确性。通过这种方式，我们不断教育客户，如今 UBI 的采用率已接近历史最高水平。

To highlight our UBI products on this call, we’ve invited two Progressive leaders who’ve played significant roles in our UBI development. First to speak will be Jim Haas, business leader for our personal auto usage-based insurance. Jim is a 20-year Progressive veteran. And for the last five years, he has led our personal auto UBI team. Jim will discuss the advances we have made in personal auto UBI.

为了在这次电话会议上重点介绍我们的 UBI 产品，我们邀请了两位在 UBI 开发过程中发挥了重要作用的 Progressive 领导人。首先发言的是个人汽车使用保险业务负责人吉姆-哈斯（Jim Haas）。吉姆在 Progressive 工作了 20 年。在过去的五年里，他一直领导着我们的个人汽车 UBI 团队。吉姆将讨论我们在个人汽车 UBI 方面取得的进展。

Following Jim will be Cory Fischer. Cory is a 19-year Progressive veteran. For nine years, Cory has been our business leader for Commercial Lines R&D. And as of last month, Cory accepted a new role to lead our agency distribution group. During his tenure in Commercial Lines, Cory led R&D during the successful rollout of both our commercial auto UBI products. Cory will be highlighting all of the advances we have made in Commercial Lines UBI, once again giving Progressive first-mover advantage in this important technology.

紧随吉姆之后的是科里-费舍尔（Cory Fischer）。科里在 Progressive 工作了 19 年。9 年来，科里一直是我们商业险研发部门的业务主管。从上个月开始，科里接受了一个新职位，领导我们的代理分销集团。在商业险部门任职期间，科里领导研发部门成功推出了我们的两款商业汽车 UBI 产品。Cory 将重点介绍我们在商业险 UBI 方面取得的所有进展，这将再次为 Progressive 在这一重要技术领域带来先发优势。

Again, thank you for joining us this morning. I will now hand it over to Jim Haas. Jim?

再次感谢各位参加今天上午的会议。现在请吉姆-哈斯发言。吉姆？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Thank you, Tricia. As Tricia mentioned, my name is Jim Haas, and I lead Progressive’s Personal Lines Telematics efforts. Today, I’d like to tell you about how we’ve built on that long history in telematics that Tricia discussed starting with how we’ve continued to improve our core Snapshot program, then moving on to discuss how we can now bring in data from outside sources to improve rating accuracy during the new business quote. And finally, wrapping up with the discussion of some value-added services we’ll be bringing to market soon.

谢谢你，特里西娅。正如特里西娅所提到的，我叫吉姆-哈斯（Jim Haas），是 Progressive Personal Lines Telematics 的负责人。今天，我想向大家介绍一下我们是如何在 Tricia 所提到的远程信息处理的悠久历史基础上继续前进的，首先是我们是如何不断改进我们的核心快照计划的，然后是讨论我们现在如何从外部来源引入数据，以提高新业务报价时的评级准确性。最后，讨论了我们即将推向市场的一些增值服务。

First, let’s recap how our program has worked for a number of years. Individual states may vary a bit, but I’ll describe here how it works in most places. We or the agent present the customer with the offer to enroll a Snapshot during their initial quote. If the customer elects to sign up, we’ll receive an immediate discount of up to 10% for participating in Snapshot that will be applied to that quote. So long as the customer stays in Snapshot, that discount stays on the policy during the whole first term.

首先，让我们回顾一下多年来我们的计划是如何运作的。各州的情况可能会有些不同，但我在此描述一下大多数地方的运作方式。在客户初次报价时，我们或代理人会向客户提出参加快照计划的建议。如果客户选择注册，我们将立即获得最多 10%的折扣，用于该报价。只要客户继续加入快照计划，该折扣就会在整个第一期保单中保留。

During the quote, the customer also elects whether they want to monitor using a plug-in OBD-II device that we send them or via an app on the smartphone. The customer then has 45 days to plug in a device or get the app set up. That point, all they need to do is drive. We’ll let them know how they’re doing along the way. Just before their policy comes up for renewal, we’ll use the driving data collected during that first term to calculate the renewal discount or surcharge. That rate adjustment will be included in the renewal quote and will be applied to future policy terms. At that point, the customer can delete the app or send us back to device and they’ll be done monitoring.

在报价时，客户还可以选择是使用我们发送给他们的插入式 OBD-II 设备进行监控，还是通过智能手机上的应用程序进行监控。然后，客户有 45 天的时间插入设备或设置应用程序。到那时，他们需要做的就是开车。我们会让他们了解一路上的情况。在保单续保前，我们会使用在第一期收集的驾驶数据来计算续保折扣或附加费。费率调整将包含在续保报价中，并适用于未来的保单期限。在这一点上，客户可以删除应用程序或将设备发送给我们，这样他们就完成了监控。

I’d mention that the rate could go down or it could go up, that is we would apply a discount or a surcharge. But that’s not how our program started. In the early days, the program is structured a little bit differently, but a customer’s rate couldn’t get worse by participating in Snapshot. Customers could receive a discount of up to 30%, but the rate couldn’t go up, no matter how risky they’re driving look. Many companies still employ a model like this today.

我会说，费率可能会下降，也可能会上升，也就是说，我们会打折或收取附加费。但我们的计划并不是这样开始的。在早期，该计划的结构有点不同，但客户的费率不会因为参与 "快照 "计划而降低。客户可以获得最高 30% 的折扣，但无论他们的驾驶看起来有多危险，费率都不会上升。如今，许多公司仍在采用类似的模式。

Of course, no rating variable in insurance only suggests giving discounts. It’s about segmentation and matching rate to risk. So, the data would suggest that some customers should see the rate increase while others should see a decrease. While only offering discounts might encourage more people to participate in the program makes the economics a lot more challenging and limits the accuracy of the overall pricing. And we all know that pricing accuracy is critical in auto insurance.

当然，保险中的任何评级变量都不会只建议给予折扣。这是关于细分和费率与风险匹配的问题。因此，数据表明，一些客户的费率应该提高，而另一些客户的费率应该降低。虽然只提供折扣可能会鼓励更多的人参与到计划中来，但这也使经济学变得更具挑战性，并限制了整体定价的准确性。而我们都知道，定价的准确性在汽车保险中至关重要。

So, starting in late 2014, we began introducing a surcharge. We set our factors so that about a fifth of customers received a surcharge, a share that we’ve kept about the same over time. The surcharge was small at first, but started us on the path to greater accuracy. It’s also when we introduced the participation discount, which is down 10% in most states. Over time, we’ve moved the price closer and closer to what the data would tell us, first, by increasing the maximum surcharge from 10% to 15%, then increasing it to 20%, and finally, to where we are today. We offer larger discounts than we did in the past, now of up to 30%. But we also have larger potential surcharges than in the past too, now up to 40%. We’ve come a long way since the days of only offering a discount, but it’s important to note that about 75% of customers still receive a discount and only about a fifth receive a surcharge.

因此，从 2014 年底开始，我们开始征收附加费。我们设定的因素是，约五分之一的客户会收到附加费，这一比例一直保持不变。附加费起初数额不大，但让我们开始走上了提高准确性的道路。也正是从那时起，我们引入了参与折扣，大多数州的参与折扣都下降了 10%。随着时间的推移，我们的价格越来越接近数据所告诉我们的价格，先是将最高附加费从 10%提高到 15%，然后提高到 20%，最后达到了今天的水平。我们提供的折扣比过去更大，现在最高可达 30%。但我们的潜在附加费也比过去高，现在高达 40%。与只提供折扣的时代相比，我们已经取得了长足的进步，但值得注意的是，约 75% 的客户仍然享受折扣，只有约五分之一的客户享受附加费。

Not surprisingly, we see better retention on customers who earn a discount and worse retention on those were in a surcharge. Renewal rates for the safest drivers who are earning the biggest discounts are about 6% higher than average, while they’re about 16% lower for the riskiest drivers who aren’t receiving a discount.

毫不奇怪，我们发现获得折扣的客户续保率更高，而被征收附加费的客户续保率更低。获得最大折扣的最安全驾驶员的续保率比平均水平高出约 6%，而没有获得折扣的最危险驾驶员的续保率比平均水平低约 16%。

So, the program systematically helps us retain lower risk drivers and shed higher risk ones. And because of the changes we made to our Snapshot pricing over the years, were more accurately priced than ever before on those customers that do stay with us. While these changes have certainly improved the accuracy of our pricing, there is still a limitation to our approach. We only use data from a single term, typically 4 to 5 months to set the price for the life of the policy. This made it so we wouldn’t know about material changes in an individual’s driving behavior would lead to less accuracy over time.

因此，该计划能系统地帮助我们留住风险较低的驾驶员，甩掉风险较高的驾驶员。而且，由于我们多年来对 "快照定价 "所做的改变，我们对那些继续与我们合作的客户的定价比以往任何时候都更加准确。虽然这些变化确实提高了我们定价的准确性，但我们的方法仍然存在局限性。我们只使用单个期限（通常为 4 至 5 个月）的数据来确定保单有效期内的价格。这使得我们无法了解个人驾驶行为的实质性变化，从而导致随着时间的推移准确性降低。

We had experimented with a continuous program a long time ago, back in the late 2000s. At the time, though, consumer acceptance of telematics generally was still growing and collecting data on an ongoing basis was quite expensive. So, we decided to move forward with a partial model. Things have changed a lot since then and in early 2022, we started migrating to a continuous version of Snapshot. The basic process isn’t all that different. Customers still choose whether and how to participate in Snapshot during the quote and they still receive a participation discount. They still have 45 days to plug in the device or set up the app and then they can just drive. The difference comes after the renewal. As instead of sending the device back or deleting the app, we ask them to continue to monitor, and we’ll adjust their rate at each renewal to reflect their more recent driving. Additionally, that participation discount is larger now at 15% instead of 10%, which encourages more people to participate in the program.

早在 2000 年代末，我们就曾尝试过连续性项目。但当时，消费者对远程信息处理技术的接受度仍在不断提高，而且持续收集数据的成本相当高昂。因此，我们决定采用部分模式。此后，情况发生了很大变化，2022 年初，我们开始迁移到 Snapshot 的连续版本。基本流程并没有什么不同。客户仍然可以在报价时选择是否参与以及如何参与快照，并且仍然可以获得参与折扣。他们仍然有 45 天的时间插入设备或设置应用程序，然后就可以直接开车了。不同之处在于续保之后。我们没有要求他们寄回设备或删除应用程序，而是要求他们继续监控，我们会在每次续保时调整他们的费率，以反映他们最近的驾驶情况。此外，现在的参与折扣更大，从 10%提高到了 15%，这将鼓励更多的人参与该计划。

Having more recent data also improves the predictive power of UBI, which means we can price even more aggressively. We’ve increased the size of the maximum potential discount to 45% and the maximum potential surcharge to 60%. We’re one of the few companies to combine a continuous model with the possibility of surcharges. As of the end of 2022, we had deployed this new continuous model in 12 states, representing over a quarter of our net written premium and plan to roll out to most of the rest of the country during 2023.

拥有更多最新数据也提高了 UBI 的预测能力，这意味着我们可以更积极地定价。我们已将最大潜在折扣提高到 45%，最大潜在附加费提高到 60%。我们是少数几家将连续模式与附加费可能性相结合的公司之一。截至 2022 年底，我们已在 12 个州部署了这种新的连续模式，占我们净承保保费的四分之一以上，并计划在 2023 年期间推广到全国其他大部分地区。

So, while we’ve been steepening these factors and requiring longer monitoring to make our pricing even more accurate, what’s happened to take rate? The answer is that the share of our personal auto customers participating in Snapshot has moved steadily upward. In fact, it’s up nearly 40% across both channels combined since January of 2019. So today, more people participate in Snapshot than ever before, providing data for longer periods of time that we can use to price more accurately than ever before.

那么，在我们不断增加这些因素并要求更长时间的监控以提高定价准确性的同时，承保率发生了什么变化呢？答案是，参与 "快照 "服务的个人汽车客户比例稳步上升。事实上，自 2019 年 1 月以来，这两个渠道合计增长了近 40%。因此，如今参与 "快照 "的人数比以往任何时候都多，这为我们提供了更长时间的数据，我们可以利用这些数据比以往任何时候都更准确地定价。

So, that’s the update on what’s been going on with our core Snapshot program, which provides great incremental segmentation over what is available via traditional rating variables on renewal policy terms.

以上就是我们的核心 "快照 "计划的最新进展情况，该计划提供了比传统的续保条款评级变量更大的增量细分。

Now, I want to talk about how we’re working to bring this pricing accuracy to where it’s most useful at the time of the new business quote. Since in this scenario, the customer is only now just coming to us will have to use telematics data that was collected by others. Our long telematics experience has helped us learn how to use this data and how to make it predictive. We currently have two initiatives in market. The first is a lead generation program that works by inviting good drivers to come and quote with us. While the other begins when a customer comes to Progressive directly to get a quote, and we find and incorporate driving data from third parties into the right we present them.

现在，我想谈谈我们是如何在新业务报价时将这种定价准确性发挥到极致的。因为在这种情况下，客户现在才找到我们，将不得不使用他人收集的远程信息处理数据。我们长期的远程信息处理经验帮助我们学会了如何使用这些数据以及如何使其具有预测性。我们目前在市场上有两项计划。第一项是 "潜在客户生成计划"，通过邀请优秀的驾驶员来为我们报价。而另一项计划则是当客户直接向 Progressive 索取报价时，我们从第三方获取驾驶数据，并将其纳入我们的报价中。

Let me start with the lead generation program. Here, a partner like Credit Karma invites their customer to opt into collecting driving data to see if they could save money on their car insurance. In a privacy-friendly way where we don’t receive personally identifiable information, we can let Credit Karma know who’s likely to receive a discount so they can invite them to quote with us. Only when the customer chooses to quote, are we able to personally identify that data and are then able to apply that discount to that individual’s quote, improving pricing accuracy immediately.

让我从潜在客户生成计划开始。在这里，像 Credit Karma 这样的合作伙伴邀请他们的客户选择收集驾驶数据，看看他们是否能在汽车保险上省钱。以一种对隐私友好的方式，我们不会收到个人可识别信息，我们可以告诉 Credit Karma 谁可能获得折扣，这样他们就可以邀请他们向我们询价。只有在客户选择询价时，我们才能个人识别那些数据，然后才能立即将折扣应用到那个个人的报价上，从而提高定价的准确性。

Our second program involves working with data collected by automakers. Over the last several years, more and more of them have been equipping their vehicles with technology to collect driving data. They’ve been working to show the value of these programs to their customers so that they’ll sign up to share that data with them. And we’ve been able to tap into that. When a customer comes to us to quote and their driving data is available, we’d ask the customer if they like us to use it to determine their price. They say, yes, we bring that data in and apply the UBI discount or surcharge to their quote immediately. Again, pushing that rate accuracy to where it matters most, the new business quote.

我们的第二个项目涉及汽车制造商收集的数据。在过去几年中，越来越多的汽车制造商在其车辆上配备了收集驾驶数据的技术。他们一直在努力向客户展示这些项目的价值，以便客户注册并与他们共享这些数据。而我们正好可以利用这一点。当客户向我们询价时，如果他们的驾驶数据可用，我们就会询问客户是否愿意我们使用这些数据来确定价格。如果客户同意，我们就将数据导入，并立即在报价中应用 UBI 折扣或附加费。再次，将费率准确性推向最重要的地方，即新业务报价。

Because of our long experience with UBI and in working with both OBD and mobile data and the fact that we attract so many insurance shoppers every year, we’re well positioned to execute and benefit from this.

由于我们在 UBI 方面以及在车载诊断系统和移动数据方面拥有长期的工作经验，而且我们每年都会吸引大量的保险购物者，因此我们完全有能力执行并从中获益。

To be clear, automakers are in various often early stages of getting the necessary equipment into their cars and making this data available to insurers. Additionally, just because new cars coming off the assembly line have the hardware, it takes a long time for the fleet to turn over. So, this isn’t common yet, but we’re excited about the opportunity it represents. We’re already working with two of the largest double makers, General Motors and Toyota, and it’s clear that this population will grow over the coming years.

需要明确的是，汽车制造商在汽车上安装必要的设备并向保险公司提供这些数据时，往往还处于不同的早期阶段。此外，虽然下线的新车都配备了这些硬件，但车队的更新换代还需要很长时间。因此，这种情况还不常见，但我们对它所代表的机遇感到兴奋。我们已经与通用汽车和丰田汽车这两家最大的汽车制造商开展了合作，很明显，在未来几年内，这一群体将不断扩大。

Lastly, I’d like to share some exciting news that doesn’t involve using telematics data to more accurately rate policies but instead, builds upon our telematics heritage to provide a valuable service to our customers. Over the last couple of years, we’ve experimented with offering a service to detect and respond to major accidents to some of our Snapshot customers to learn if they value the service and to better understand how it could be useful in handling claims. We’ve been encouraged on both fronts as customers have consistently told us that this kind of service is something that they really do value and our claims representatives have seen a telematics data can help them settle claims more quickly and efficiently.

最后，我想与大家分享一些令人兴奋的消息，这些消息并不涉及使用远程信息处理数据来更准确地评定保单，而是基于我们的远程信息处理传统，为我们的客户提供有价值的服务。在过去几年中，我们尝试向一些 "快照 "客户提供检测和应对重大事故的服务，以了解他们是否重视这项服务，并更好地了解这项服务在处理理赔时的作用。我们在这两方面都受到了鼓舞，因为客户一直告诉我们，这种服务是他们真正重视的，我们的理赔代表也看到了远程信息处理数据可以帮助他们更快、更有效地解决理赔问题。

Still, we know that despite how times have changed, there is a large segment of customers who don’t want their insurance premium to be based on their driving data. That means that if we limit this just to our Snapshot customers, we’d be leaving out a lot of others. So, in March, we plan to start making accident response available to all of our auto customers, not just those who were in Snapshot. We’ll use data from the sensors on the phone to detect when a serious crash is likely to have happened. We’ll reach out to the customer to confirm the accident and to see if they need help.

不过，我们知道，尽管时代已经发生了变化，但仍有很大一部分客户不希望他们的保险费是基于他们的驾驶数据。这就意味着，如果我们只向 "快照 "客户提供这种服务，就会遗漏很多其他客户。因此，我们计划在三月份开始向所有汽车客户提供事故响应服务，而不仅仅是那些 "快照 "客户。我们将利用手机传感器的数据来检测何时可能发生严重碰撞。我们将联系客户确认事故情况，并了解他们是否需要帮助。

If we don’t hear from a customer at all, and it seems particularly serious, we’ll request that the police conduct a well check to make sure our customer is okay. Since we know the customer’s location from the telematics data, we know just where to send them.

如果我们完全没有客户的消息，而且情况似乎特别严重，我们就会请求警方进行井下检查，以确保我们的客户没事。因为我们通过远程信息处理数据知道客户的位置，所以我们知道该把他们送到哪里。

We know there are other accident response services available. We think what we’re offering has several key benefits, though, that distinguish it. First, many services come at an additional monthly expense. Ours will come included in the policy. There is no additional charge. This adds value to the customer’s relationship with us and can become another reason to choose and to stay with Progressive. Additionally, while other insurers offer crash detection to their UBI customers, we’ll be making it available to all of our Personal Lines auto customers, whether they’re in Snapshot or not.

我们知道还有其他事故响应服务。但我们认为，我们提供的服务有几个与众不同的关键优势。首先，许多服务需要每月支付额外费用。我们的服务将包含在保单中。没有额外费用。这为客户与我们的关系增添了价值，也成为客户选择并继续与 Progressive 合作的另一个原因。此外，当其他保险公司向其 UBI 客户提供碰撞检测服务时，我们将向我们所有的个人业务汽车客户提供该服务，无论他们是否在 Snapshot 中。

Third, we’re deliberate about dispatching EMS. We certainly wanted to get EMS dispatch as quickly as we can when a customer needs it. But we also don’t want to waste EMS resources and bother the customer when they don’t. This can be challenging since the sensor data for a near miss and an actual accident can look awfully similar. So, we try to contact the customer more than once using different methods so they can let us know if there was an accident and if they need help. We only send help if the customer has requested or if we haven’t been able to reach them after several tries and the accident looks severe. While most customers in these accidents don’t actually need ambulance, many do need a tow truck. We’re able to build on our roadside assistance experience to meet this need. We understand that those are even more urgent than a typical roadside request. We can also help customers notify their family members.

第三，我们在调度 EMS 方面是经过深思熟虑的。我们当然希望在客户需要的时候尽快派发 EMS。但我们也不想浪费 EMS 资源，在客户不需要时打扰他们。这可能具有挑战性，因为险情和实际事故的传感器数据可能非常相似。因此，我们尝试使用不同的方法多次联系客户，让他们告诉我们是否发生了事故以及是否需要帮助。只有在客户提出要求或我们多次尝试仍无法联系到客户且事故看起来很严重的情况下，我们才会提供帮助。虽然这些事故中的大多数客户实际上并不需要救护车，但许多人确实需要拖车。我们可以利用我们的道路救援经验来满足这一需求。我们知道，这些需求比一般的道路救援请求更为紧急。我们还可以帮助客户通知其家人。

Lastly, after an accident, one of consumers’ top concerns is how to get their medical bills paid and how to get their car back on the road. As their insurer, we’re the ones positioned to help them get there. By detecting these accidents and having this telematics data able, we’re able to get their claim started more quickly and able to handle it more efficiently. In fact, if an ambulance or two is dispatched, we’ll actually get that claim started on their behalf. Let me show you an example. This is a real claim that was detected via accident response. In the loss pictured here, our customer was driving on an urban boulevard when they hit some ice, lost control of the vehicle for a striking barricade to their left before striking the barricade on the right. Fortunately, no other vehicles were involved. As you can see, the airbags deployed and there was pretty severe damage to the front of our insurance vehicle. In fact, this vehicle is a total loss.

最后，事故发生后，消费者最关心的问题之一就是如何支付医疗费用以及如何让汽车重新上路。作为他们的保险公司，我们有能力帮助他们解决这些问题。通过检测这些事故并掌握远程信息处理数据，我们能够更快地启动理赔程序，更有效地处理事故。事实上，如果派出一两辆救护车，我们将代表他们开始索赔。让我举个例子。这是一个通过事故响应发现的真实理赔案例。在图中的损失中，我们的客户在城市林荫大道上行驶时，撞到了一些冰面，车辆失控撞向左侧的路障，然后又撞向右侧的路障。幸运的是，没有涉及其他车辆。如您所见，安全气囊已经展开，我们保险车辆的前部受损严重。事实上，这辆车已经全损。

Additionally, our customer and two of their passengers were injured in the crash. Within 2 minutes of the impact, we reached out to our customer. While they didn’t response to our initial push notification, they did respond to a subsequent call from a live agent, which occurred less than 5 minutes after the accident that agent dispatched an ambulance and a tow truck to the scene. Only a few minutes later, the claim was filed. Altogether, it took only 10 minutes from the time of the accident to when we had a claim in our system.

此外，我们的客户及其两名乘客在车祸中受伤。在撞击发生后 2 分钟内，我们与客户取得了联系。虽然他们没有回应我们最初的推送通知，但他们回应了一位现场代理随后打来的电话，该代理在事故发生后不到 5 分钟就派遣了一辆救护车和一辆拖车前往现场。仅几分钟后，索赔就提交了。从事故发生到我们的系统收到理赔申请，总共只用了 10 分钟。

We’ve surveyed some of our accident response customers where we’ve gotten has some great feedback. For instance, this customer showed that they were “unable to call for help at the time but help called me.” This service helps us help our customers when they need it most.

我们对一些事故响应客户进行了调查，得到了一些很好的反馈。例如，这位客户表示，他们 "当时无法呼叫救援，但救援人员给我打了电话"。这项服务帮助我们在客户最需要的时候为他们提供帮助。

It’s not just the immediate response to the accident that can help customers though. Here is another example. This customer collided with another vehicle when changing lanes. We detected this accident as well, dispatched the tow for them and had the claim filed within 12 minutes of the accident.

不过，能帮助客户的不仅仅是对事故的即时反应。下面是另一个例子。这位客户在变道时与另一辆车相撞。我们也发现了这起事故，为他们派遣了拖车，并在事故发生后 12 分钟内提交了索赔申请。

What I want to highlight in this case though, is that this customer had this accident just two days after buying their policy. Some of the first steps in handling any claim include establishing the facts of loss and determining if the loss is covered.

不过，在这个案例中，我想强调的是，这位客户在购买保单两天后就发生了事故。处理任何索赔的第一步包括确定损失事实和确定损失是否在承保范围内。

Unfortunately, there are people who buy insurance after they had an accident and then try to make a claim for it. This means that honest customers are inconvenienced as we need to take the time to verify that the accident happened when they told us it did. That was pretty easy in this case, however, since we detected the accident in the first place and arranged for the tow truck to pick up the car, and we can see from the telematics data that the crash happened where and importantly when our customers said it did. Therefore, we were very confident that this loss did occur after and not before the customer purchased the policy, which let us move forward more quickly with getting the customer back on the road.

不幸的是，有些人在发生事故后购买了保险，然后试图索赔。这就给诚实的客户带来了不便，因为我们需要花时间核实事故是否是在他们告诉我们的时候发生的。不过，在这种情况下这很容易，因为我们一开始就发现了事故，并安排了拖车来取车，而且我们可以从远程信息处理数据中看到事故发生的时间和地点。因此，我们非常确信，这一损失确实发生在客户购买保单之后而非之前，这让我们能够更快地让客户重新上路。

So, it’s not just the accident response service self, but its promise to improve the claims experience that can benefit our customers. They’ve told us they value accident response, and we’re excited to make it available to them. We’ll start that process in March and expect to make it available to all of our personal auto customers over the next year or so.

因此，能够让我们的客户受益的不仅仅是事故响应服务本身，还有其改善理赔体验的承诺。他们告诉我们他们很重视事故响应服务，我们很高兴能向他们提供这项服务。我们将在三月份启动这一进程，并预计在未来一年左右的时间里向我们所有的个人汽车客户提供这一服务。

To wrap up, we’re not just jumping on the telematics bandwagon. We have decades of experience here. We’re clear-eyed about the challenges, but also see the great opportunities telematics offerings present. But this is just the Personal Lines side of the story. My colleagues in Commercial Lines have been developing their own approach about how to use telematics data in their markets, and Cory Fischer, who’s led Commercial Lines R&D for the better part of the last 10 years is here to tell us about it. Cory?

总而言之，我们并不是刚刚加入远程信息处理的行列。我们在这方面有几十年的经验。我们清醒地认识到所面临的挑战，同时也看到了远程信息处理技术所带来的巨大机遇。但这只是个人险方面的情况。我在商业险部门的同事们一直在开发他们自己的方法，即如何在他们的市场中使用远程信息处理数据，科里-费舍尔（Cory Fischer）在过去的 10 年中一直领导着商业险的研发工作，他将向我们介绍这方面的情况。科里？

Cory Fischer 科里-菲舍尔

Thanks, Jim. As Tricia shared, I’m Cory Fischer, and up until recently, I was the business leader for Commercial Lines Product Research and Development, which includes responsibility for commercial telematics efforts.

谢谢，吉姆。正如特里西娅所分享的，我是科里-费舍尔，直到最近，我一直是商业线产品研发的业务负责人，其中包括负责商业远程信息处理的工作。

Today, I’d like to share the progress we’ve made since introducing our commercial telematics programs, some early observations and how we’re thinking about future investments in this space.

今天，我想与大家分享我们自推出商用远程信息处理项目以来所取得的进展、一些早期观察结果以及我们对该领域未来投资的看法。

The chart on the lower left was shared in a prior Investor Relations call. It’s why we’re excited and have been investing in telematics. Pricing segmentation is an important part of how we compete. The group I’ve worked with is charged with advancing our commercial auto segmentation leadership position in the market. Telematics is the most predictive rating variable we have by a lot. To build on that segmentation leadership position we need to be a leader in telematics.

左下角的图表是在之前的投资者关系电话会议上分享的。这也是我们对远程信息处理技术感到兴奋并进行投资的原因。定价细分是我们竞争的重要组成部分。我所在的小组负责推进我们在商用车细分市场的领导地位。远程信息处理技术是我们所拥有的最具预测性的评级变量。为了巩固这一细分市场的领导地位，我们需要成为远程信息处理领域的领导者。

For context, we have two branded telematics programs. Smart Haul is the first program we introduced in 2018 after several years of data collection studies and pilots. It targets truckers that are acquired to maintain hours-of-service logs. The launch intentionally coincided with the federal mandate, requiring these truckers to move from paper log books to electronic logging devices. We have recognized those devices provide continuous monitoring and capture very similar data to our Snapshot devices, including location information. With the customer’s consent, we use the data from the trucker’s electronic login device to generate a score and apply a rating factor. Ideally, we access the data during the quote process, just like the process Jim discussed, using data to price new business. If we are not able to get the data, either there are newer venture without driving history, or we don’t have immediate access to their ELD vendor, we provide a participation discount on the quote.

就背景而言，我们有两个品牌远程信息处理计划。Smart Haul 是我们经过数年的数据收集研究和试点后于 2018 年推出的第一个计划。它针对的是被要求保持服务时间记录的卡车司机。该计划的推出有意与联邦规定相吻合，要求这些卡车司机从纸质行车记录仪转向电子行车记录仪。我们认识到，这些设备可提供持续监控，并捕获与我们的快照设备非常相似的数据，包括位置信息。在征得客户同意后，我们使用卡车司机电子登录设备的数据生成评分并应用评级因子。理想情况下，我们会在报价过程中获取数据，就像吉姆讨论的那样，利用数据为新业务定价。如果我们无法获得数据，要么是没有驾驶记录的新企业，要么是我们无法立即访问他们的 ELD 供应商，我们会在报价上提供参与折扣。

Snapshot ProView on the right is more similar to what Progressive Personal Auto has offered. Its target is essentially anyone that doesn’t have an electronic logging device. We market Snapshot ProView as safety and savings. For customers that enroll, we provide a participation discount at new business and send a Snapshot device that they can easily plug in. Given how small businesses have employee turnover, this program has continuous monitoring. We will then use their driving data to generate a score and a factor that’s applied at renewal. This factor could be a discount or a surcharge.

右侧的 Snapshot ProView 更类似于 Progressive Personal Auto 提供的产品。它的目标客户基本上是没有电子行车记录仪的人。我们将 Snapshot ProView 推广为安全和节约。对于注册的客户，我们会在新业务中提供参与折扣，并发送一个他们可以轻松插入的 Snapshot 设备。考虑到小企业员工流动性大，该计划可以进行持续监控。然后，我们将利用他们的驾驶数据生成一个分数和一个因素，在续保时应用。这个因素可以是折扣或附加费。

In addition, we provide access to a free driver portal. Our customer can see where their vehicles are and how they are being driven. It’s a fairly simple way to keep tabs on their fleet and driving behavior.

此外，我们还提供免费的驾驶员门户网站。我们的客户可以看到自己车辆的位置和驾驶情况。这是一种非常简单的方式，可以随时了解他们的车队和驾驶行为。

Since we have deployed these programs, we have been monitoring a number of key metrics. The chart on the right shows a version of take rate, that is, percentage of new business apps and rolling into a telematics program. We’ve seen from prior program launches, it can take a while and require a sustained effort to get meaningful adoption. Though we have identified opportunities for increasing take rate, we are genuinely happy with how quickly adoption has occurred and the trajectory it’s on.

自从我们部署这些计划以来，我们一直在监测一些关键指标。右图显示的是一个版本的采用率，即新业务应用程序和滚动到远程信息处理计划的百分比。我们从之前的项目启动中发现，要获得有意义的采用可能需要一段时间，而且需要持续的努力。虽然我们已经发现了提高采用率的机会，但我们对采用的速度和轨迹感到由衷的高兴。

In addition to adoption, we have seen that when quotas enroll into a program, they convert at a higher rate than the cohort that’s eligible, but chooses not to enroll. We also see that our telematics book of business performs better from a profitability standpoint even after the discount is applied. That’s not the longer-term goal. Our intent is to accurately price all segments at target. Between our significant footprint in the commercial auto market, healthy adoption rate and conversion lift, we’ve built a substantial commercial auto telematics book of business. That book would be a Top 15 commercial auto insurance carrier on its own.

除了采用率，我们还发现当配额参与者加入一个计划时，他们的转化率高于符合条件的群体，但选择不加入。我们还看到，即使在折扣应用后，我们的远程信息技术业务在盈利能力方面表现更好。这并不是长期目标。我们的意图是准确定价所有细分市场的目标。凭借我们在商业汽车市场的显著影响力、健康的采用率和转化提升，我们已经建立了一个庞大的商业汽车远程信息技术业务。这本业务本身就是一家排名前15的商业汽车保险公司。

In summary, we are really pleased with the growth and performance of our telematics efforts. But we have learned a lot since introducing these programs. One recognition, getting into telematics is not easy. It’s not just as simple as adding a new rating variable. It takes broader and sustained effort, new capabilities and investments. For example, we are asking our partners in the independent agent channel to take additional steps to enroll customers, which can include a supplemental app and working through customer reservations with sharing their driving data. That requires an incremental level of support and training.

总之，我们对远程信息处理工作的增长和表现非常满意。但自从引入这些项目以来，我们也学到了很多。我们认识到，进入远程信息处理领域并非易事。这不仅仅是增加一个新的评级变量那么简单。它需要更广泛和持续的努力、新的能力和投资。例如，我们要求独立代理渠道的合作伙伴采取额外的步骤为客户注册，其中可能包括一个补充应用程序，并通过客户对共享其驾驶数据的保留意见来开展工作。这需要逐步提供支持和培训。

With telematics, we are now dealing with hardware and data transmission. We are also in the logistics business, sending out devices, tracking inventory levels and recently dealing with global supply chain issues. That’s a different set of vendors, technical challenges, systems and business processes that we’ve had to work through. I think the biggest difference is the amount of data that these devices generate. We have to ensure that data is being managed effectively. It’s imperative as the data is being transmitted and stored that is handled securely.

有了远程信息处理技术，我们现在可以处理硬件和数据传输问题。我们还从事物流业务，发送设备、跟踪库存水平，最近还要处理全球供应链问题。这是一系列不同的供应商、技术挑战、系统和业务流程，我们必须要解决这些问题。我认为最大的不同是这些设备产生的数据量。我们必须确保数据得到有效管理。在传输和存储数据的过程中，必须确保数据的安全处理。

Also, as the largest commercial auto insurer in the United States, we have a lot of data and have developed effective tools, processes, and skills to manage and model those more traditional data sets. Telematics is an entirely different situation. One truck alone might generate over 1 million records per year. Our traditional approaches aren’t nearly as effective, transforming big data sets into variables that we can test and model off of.

此外，作为美国最大的商业汽车保险公司，我们拥有大量数据，并已开发出有效的工具、流程和技能来管理和模拟这些更为传统的数据集。远程信息处理则完全不同。仅一辆卡车每年就可能产生 100 多万条记录。我们的传统方法并不能有效地将大数据集转化为我们可以测试和建模的变量。

A big advantage to us is that personal auto through its efforts and investments over the past 20 some years, has established a lot of these capabilities or learnings that we can leverage. For example, our Snapshot ProView program uses the personal auto Snapshot device. Given the volume that personal auto has generated, we have a very competitive cost per device, and that device is already set up to transmit the data back to our secure storage solutions.

我们的一大优势是，个人汽车公司通过过去 20 多年的努力和投资，已经建立了许多我们可以利用的能力或经验。例如，我们的 Snapshot ProView 计划就使用了个人汽车 Snapshot 设备。考虑到个人汽车产生的数据量，我们的单台设备成本非常具有竞争力，而且该设备已经设置好将数据传输回我们的安全存储解决方案。

In terms of big data, personal auto helped us move to their cloud solution, essentially a highly scalable cloud-based data storage and analysis service. This significantly reduces our processing time to analyze data and at a much lower cost than traditional alternatives. They’ve also provided support as we upskill our team to use these new tools.

在大数据方面，个人汽车公司帮助我们采用了他们的云解决方案，该方案本质上是一种高度可扩展的基于云的数据存储和分析服务。这大大缩短了我们分析数据的处理时间，而且成本远低于传统替代方案。他们还在我们培训团队使用这些新工具时提供了支持。

To summarize this slide, getting into telematics requires a lot of effort. A competitive advantage that we have in Commercial Lines is that our colleagues and Jim’s group have already laid a lot of that groundwork that we can either use or learn from.

总结一下这张幻灯片，进入远程信息处理领域需要付出很多努力。我们在商业险领域的竞争优势在于，我们的同事和吉姆的团队已经奠定了很多基础，我们可以利用或借鉴。

It takes a lot to stand up a leading telematics program and to maintain that leadership takes ongoing investment. I’ll share some of those ideas with this slide.

要建立一个领先的远程信息处理项目需要付出很多努力，而要保持这种领先地位则需要持续的投资。我将通过这张幻灯片与大家分享其中的一些想法。

Near term, there’s a lot that we can do to improve the experience. We have data that shows where customers drop out of the funnel or hit operational hurdles by granting data sharing consent or installing the plug-in device. We have worked with our vendors and have new business processes that will improve both. We have several manual processes in place that support these programs. By automating those, we will lower our program expenses and improve the customer or agent experience.

近期，我们可以做很多事情来改善体验。我们拥有数据，可以显示客户在哪些地方退出了漏斗，或在授予数据共享同意或安装插件设备时遇到了操作障碍。我们与供应商合作，制定了新的业务流程，将改善这两个方面。我们有几个支持这些计划的人工流程。通过将这些流程自动化，我们将降低计划开支，改善客户或代理的体验。

There are a few segments that aren’t currently eligible for one of these programs. We’re looking to expand eligibility. One example is for our small fleet customers that have their own telematics service, but not electronic logging devices. This could be a service fleet like plumbing. Our intent is to enroll them into a program and access the data from their telematics service provider. Through these near term plans, we’ll continue to grow our telematics book, and with that additional data continue to refine and improve our scoring models. We’re also excited about new data sources and applications. We’re seeing better reception from segments that we target to having dash cams.

目前有几个部分没有资格参加这些计划。我们希望扩大这些计划的适用范围。例如，我们的小型车队客户拥有自己的远程信息处理服务，但没有电子记录设备。这可能是像管道工程这样的服务车队。我们的目的是让他们加入一个计划，并从他们的远程信息处理服务提供商那里获取数据。通过这些近期计划，我们将继续增加我们的远程信息处理记录，并利用这些额外的数据继续完善和改进我们的评分模型。我们也对新的数据源和应用感到兴奋。我们发现，我们的目标客户群对安装仪表盘摄像头的接受度更高。

We’ve been doing a pilot with dash cams for over a year. There’s data from video that we don’t capture today, like following distance, which could be valuable, and as Jim shared, we’re interested in how telematics can help with the claims process. Dash cams would be an additional input that could be meaningful for claims. We’re also using the data to support our underwriting efforts. For now, that might mean verifying other information on the application like radius of operations or garaging Zip code, which are important for us to assess where the vehicle is operated. Sometimes we need to follow up to confirm that the information on the application is correct. We can use telematics data to better target which risks we should follow up on.

一年多来，我们一直在使用行车记录仪进行试点。正如吉姆所说，我们对远程信息处理如何帮助理赔流程很感兴趣。行车记录仪将是对理赔有意义的额外输入。我们还将利用这些数据支持我们的承保工作。目前，这可能意味着要核实申请表上的其他信息，如运营半径或车库邮政编码，这对我们评估车辆的运营地点非常重要。有时我们需要跟进，以确认申请表上的信息是否正确。我们可以使用远程信息处理数据来更好地确定我们应该跟进的风险。

Our telematics score is currently bolted on to our core model. Given not everyone is in a telematics program, we solve our core model first and then add a telematics score factor for those enrolled. Over time, we plan to move more of the telematics data into the core product, especially where we have those insights at time of quote.

目前，我们的远程信息处理得分是附加在核心模型上的。鉴于并非每个人都参加了远程信息处理计划，我们首先要解决核心模型的问题，然后为参加的人添加远程信息处理评分因素。随着时间的推移，我们计划将更多的远程信息处理数据转移到核心产品中，尤其是我们在报价时已经掌握了这些信息的地方。

Here’s an example. This shows one truck’s driving pattern for 60 days. On the application, the insured’s address and garaging Zip is Elizabeth, New Jersey and they’ve listed their operating radius as 25 miles. Our model would use information closest to that address to determine a territory factor. Some customers at garage there might never go into New York City. This truck goes lots of different places, but it turns out, there’s a fairly regular pattern of going into the city. It’s hard to tell from this map, but from the data, let’s say 75% of the trips go from Elizabeth into New York City before turning around. A territory factor that puts more weight on the New York City experience would be more suitable.

下面是一个例子。这显示了一辆卡车 60 天的驾驶模式。在申请表上，被保险人的地址和车库邮编是新泽西州伊丽莎白，他们列出的运营半径是 25 英里。我们的模型将使用最接近该地址的信息来确定区域系数。那里车库的一些客户可能从未去过纽约市。这辆卡车要去很多不同的地方，但事实证明，进城是有规律可循的。从这张地图上很难看出，但从数据来看，75% 的行程都是从伊丽莎白进入纽约市，然后再掉头。如果采用更重视纽约市体验的地域因素，则更为合适。

Part of our roadmap is to integrate telematics deeper into our model. I don’t see a time we have a telematics only model. We know we get valuable segmentation from non-telematics variables, but there are variables like garaging address and radius, that proxy driving location and where the actual telematics data would be a superior solution.

我们的路线图之一就是将远程信息处理技术更深入地融入到我们的模式中。我认为我们不应该只使用远程信息处理模型。我们知道，我们可以从非远程信息处理变量中获得有价值的细分信息，但也有一些变量，如车库地址和半径，可以代理驾驶位置，在这些变量中，实际的远程信息处理数据将是更优的解决方案。

Wrapping up, we’ve got a great start to our telematics journey. We’ve got a significant benefit from the experience and investments our colleagues in personal auto have made. And I’m really excited about how we’ll continue to use telematics to drive competitive advantage going forward.

总之，我们的远程信息处理之旅已经有了一个良好的开端。我们从个人汽车领域同事的经验和投资中获益匪浅。我对我们将如何继续利用远程信息处理技术推动竞争优势的发展感到非常兴奋。

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

This concludes the previously recorded portion of today’s event. We now have members of our management team available for -- available live to answer questions, including presenters Jim Haas and Cory Fischer who can answer questions about the UBI presentation. [Instructions] We will now take our first question. Stacy?

今天活动的录制到此结束。现在我们的管理团队成员可以现场回答问题，包括主持人吉姆-哈斯（Jim Haas）和科里-费舍尔（Cory Fischer），他们可以回答有关 UBI 演示的问题。[说明] 我们现在开始第一个问题。史黛西？

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

Our first question for today comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

今天的第一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Michael Zaremski。

Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基

Hey. Great. Good morning and thanks for the presentation. A first question, Progressive’s personal auto accident frequency levels appear to be trending a lot better than the industry over the past year. I’m curious if you agree with that statement. And if you do, any thoughts on what’s causing the better than historical average trend line? And I know, clearly, a lot of this call was devoted to segmentation, Progressive is a first mover -- or one of the first movers in telematics. So, that theoretically should, I guess, improve Progressive’s trend-line versus the industry if I’m thinking about things correctly too. But would love to hear more about that.

嘿，太好了。早上好，感谢您的介绍。第一个问题，在过去的一年里，Progressive 的个人汽车事故频率水平似乎比行业趋势要好得多。我很好奇你是否同意这种说法。如果同意的话，您对造成这种好于历史平均趋势线的原因有什么看法？我知道，很明显，这次电话会议的很多内容都是关于细分市场的，Progressive 是远程信息处理领域的先行者，或者说是先行者之一。因此，我想，如果我的想法正确的话，理论上这应该会改善 Progressive 相对于行业的趋势线。但我还想听到更多这方面的信息。

Tricia Griffith  特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Mike, I think you’re thinking about it in the right way. A couple caveats. When we report frequency, we report incurred in a lot of our competitors report paid, but we’ve been seeing this trend more negative in the industry for a while. We can’t speculate on a lot of things. Obviously, segmentation is a big piece, we believe. We also believe that mix of business could play a role and that could be mix in states or mix overall from a preferred perspective. We talked in the fourth quarter and in my letter about growth across all of our segments that we started to see increase in Q4. We have seen growth again across all segments, but higher in the Diane’s Wrights and Robinsons. Again, we still see it in Sam’s, but it’s higher, so it could be mix as well.

是的迈克，我觉得你想得很对。有几点需要注意。当我们报告频率时，我们报告的是发生率，而我们的很多竞争对手报告的是付费率，但我们已经看到这个行业的负面趋势有一段时间了。我们无法对很多事情进行推测。显然，我们认为细分市场是一个重要因素。我们还认为，业务组合也会起到一定的作用，这可能是各州的组合，也可能是从偏好的角度来看整体的组合。我们在第四季度和我的信中谈到了我们所有业务部门的增长，我们在第四季度开始看到增长。我们再次看到了所有分部的增长，但戴安娜赖特和罗宾逊的增长幅度更大。同样，我们在山姆会员店也看到了增长，但增长幅度更大，这也可能是混合增长的结果。

The good news is that we see this data change quickly. So, if we need to change anything we’re doing from a pricing perspective, we’ll see it pretty quickly.

好消息是，我们很快就能看到这些数据的变化。因此，如果我们需要从定价角度改变我们正在做的任何事情，我们很快就能看到。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I’d add a couple items on that. So I think Jim Haas’ slide where he showed the retention of customers who are getting a surcharge versus a discount is a great case in point of segmentation at work. So the folks who are getting a surcharge, all else equal, are going to be the higher frequency drivers and the folks who are getting a discount are the lower frequency. And obviously in the marketplace, as that continues to play out, that will help drive our frequency more favorable than our competitors.

我想补充几条。吉姆-哈斯（Jim Haas）在幻灯片中展示了获得附加费和折扣的客户的留存率，我认为这是一个很好的细分案例。因此，在其他条件相同的情况下，获得附加费的客户将是出险频率较高的驾驶员，而获得折扣的客户则是出险频率较低的驾驶员。显然，在市场上，随着这种情况的继续发生，这将有助于推动我们比竞争对手更有利的频率。

Additionally, we’ve talked about underwriting efforts we put in place as we were challenged by profitability. We’ve raised rates considerably as we’ve shared. I will note though that we have retained our underwriting restrictions fairly tight. So, we’ve been able to manage that in this very competitive environment to a point where we are able to maintain the underwriting restrictions, which generally speaking are pushing off the higher frequency customers and able to raise rates at the same time. So, I think we are in a pretty good place, both from the rate level perspective but also continuing to guard against segments that might be underpriced.

此外，我们还谈到了在面临盈利挑战时所采取的承保措施。正如我们分享的那样，我们已经大幅提高了费率。但我要指出的是，我们的承保限制仍然相当严格。因此，在竞争非常激烈的环境下，我们一直能够保持承保限制，一般来说，这可以将频率较高的客户拒之门外，同时还能提高费率。因此，我认为，从费率水平的角度来看，我们的情况还算不错，但也要继续防范可能定价过低的细分市场。

Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基

Got it. That’s helpful. My follow-up is regarding some of the commentary you made about the automakers. And I know we appreciate that you are not an automaker and you are partnering with them and it’s in the early stages. But I believe you used the word excited about the partnership. And I believe a lot of investors have felt that the automakers could represent a new leg, or new kind of leg of competitiveness within the industry. So curious if you’re having to -- maybe you can shed more light on the partnerships and only if Progressive is having to pay the automakers for this data, why isn’t it a bit of a competitive threat as well? Thanks.

明白了很有帮助我想跟进的是你对汽车制造商的一些评论。我知道我们很感激你不是一家汽车制造商，而且你正在与他们合作，目前还处于早期阶段。但我相信，你对这种合作关系用了 "兴奋 "这个词。我相信很多投资者都认为，汽车制造商代表了行业内新的竞争力。所以我很好奇，如果你不得不--也许你能更多地介绍一下这种合作关系，而且如果 Progressive 不得不为这些数据向汽车制造商付费，为什么这不是一种竞争威胁呢？谢谢。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. Sure, Mike. I’ll let Jim Haas talk a little bit more about that. But we think competition across the board, whether it’s with the OEs or with insure-techs is great. We also feel like when we have partnerships like Jim talked about, it’s really important and it benefits most importantly the consumers. So Jim, do you want to add any color to that?

是的，当然，迈克。我会让吉姆-哈斯（Jim Haas）再多说一点。但我们认为，无论是与原始设备制造商还是与保险技术公司之间的竞争，都是非常好的。我们还认为，当我们建立像吉姆所说的那样的合作伙伴关系时，这一点非常重要，而且最重要的是能让消费者受益。那么，吉姆，你对此有什么补充吗？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Sure. Mike, you are right. We obviously pay for the data eventually goes to the automakers, is a way for them to monetize that. They are putting all those hardware in the car that costs money. This is a way for them to get some return on that. Some OEMs are going to want to get an insurance, as we’ve seen, some might not. And so this is a different way for them to get value-add out of that data from us.

当然。迈克，你是对的。我们显然最终会为数据付费，这对汽车制造商来说是一种货币化的方式。他们在汽车中安装了所有这些硬件，这是要花钱的。这是他们从我们这里获得一些回报的一种方式。一些原始设备制造商（OEM）会想要获得保险，正如我们所看到的，有些可能不会。所以这对他们来说是一种从我们这里获得数据附加值的不同方式。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. David, you have the floor.

下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。大卫，请你发言。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. Tricia, I believe in August you told us that, you thought auto PIF growth in the next couple of years would be difficult to match the 70% type of PIF growth you guys saw in the six years, since the start of the last hard market in 2016. Just wondering if we could get an update on your thoughts on that front, just given the challenges in the marketplace that some of your peers are seeing, some of the losses they have reported and just how you are feeling with your rates and what you are seeing on the new apps? Just wondering how you -- do you still feel that way just on the type of growth that you think we could see over the next five to six years?

嗨，谢谢早上好。特里西娅，我相信你在八月份的时候告诉过我们，你认为未来几年的汽车PIF增长将很难达到你们在2016年上一个困难市场开始以来的六年中看到的70%的PIF增长。考虑到一些同行面临的市场挑战、他们报告的一些损失，以及你们对费率的感受和你们在新应用程序上看到的情况，不知道我们能否了解一下你们在这方面的最新想法？我只是想知道你对未来五到六年的增长类型是否仍有这种感觉？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks, David. I will tell you I feel a lot more bullish than I felt about four or five months ago. We went through reacting to severity trends that frankly we’ve never seen before. I can’t predict what PIF growth will be because we -- there’s a lot of environmental things going on, and what I’ve learned over the last three years is to anticipate that there’s going to be things that we haven’t prepared for, whether it’s the used car prices, inflation, frequency, driving behavior, pandemic. That said, I believe we’re in a really great position as we sit. So, we said, we were going to start to take rate. I think, we foreshadowed that late ‘21. It took some time into 2022 to obviously start to earn into the book. We do feel good, but we’re always watching what’s happening and there’s been kind of an ever-evolving changing.

谢谢，大卫。我会告诉你，我感觉比四、五个月前看涨多了。我们经历了对严重性趋势的反应，坦率地说，这是我们从未见过的。我无法预测 PIF 的增长情况，因为我们 -- 有很多环境因素在发生，而我在过去三年里学到的是，要预测会发生我们没有准备好的事情，无论是二手车价格、通胀、频率、驾驶行为还是大流行病。尽管如此，我相信我们现在的状况非常好。所以，我们说过，我们要开始调整费率。我认为，我们在 21 年底就预示了这一点。到 2022 年，我们花了一些时间才开始将收益纳入账簿。我们确实感觉良好，但我们一直在关注正在发生的事情，这也是一种不断发展变化的过程。

So on the private passenger auto side, as you know, we took 13.5 points last year. We still have about 3 points of that to earn in, in this calendar year. And just for some color, we took 1.5 points in January. So, we continue to look at trends, and the future -- and the future trends and the rate need -- that we need now to match rate to risk. But that said, and John Sauerland added this on to the first question from Mike and that is what --we’re in such a good position now because we have -- there’s a lot of shopping out there, a lot of prospects out there because our competitors have been now raising rates. So, they’re catching up just and sometimes exceeding us. But we’re in just a different position, because we got out in front of it. So, there’s a lot of shopping, a lot of ambient shopping, which is really efficient for us. And what happens with what both Jim and Cory talked about, as well as other variables, we believe we have superior segmentation. So, we’re going to grab onto as many customers and obviously keep as many customers as we can for as long as we can.

因此，在私人客运汽车方面，正如大家所知，我们去年获得了 13.5 个点。在今年，我们还有大约 3 个百分点要赚。此外，我们在一月份还获得了 1.5 个积分。因此，我们将继续关注趋势和未来 -- 未来趋势和费率需求 -- 我们现在需要将费率与风险相匹配。不过，话虽如此，约翰-绍尔兰（John Sauerland）还是对迈克（Mike）提出的第一个问题补充了这一点，那就是我们现在处于如此有利的位置，因为我们有--外面有很多购物机会，外面有很多前景，因为我们的竞争对手现在一直在提高费率。因此，他们正在迎头赶上，有时甚至超过我们。但我们的处境不同，因为我们走在了前面。因此，我们有很多的购物机会，很多环境购物机会，这对我们来说非常有效。吉姆和科里谈到的情况，以及其他变量，让我们相信，我们拥有卓越的细分市场。因此，我们将抓住尽可能多的客户，并在尽可能长的时间内留住尽可能多的客户。

However, this timeframe in this hard market lasts, and of course that segmentation and the adverse selection flywheel works in our favor because of our many, many decades of investing in things like segmentation, competitive prices, our brand, et cetera. So, while I can’t foreshadow what our PIF growth is going to be, we are going to do everything we can to follow our longstanding goal of growing as fast as we possibly can at our 96 combined ratio and making sure we can take care of our customers.

然而，在这个艰难的市场中，这个时间框架会持续下去，当然，细分和逆向选择飞轮对我们有利，因为我们在细分、有竞争力的价格、我们的品牌等方面进行了数十年的投资。因此，虽然我无法预言我们的 PIF 增长情况，但我们将竭尽所能，遵循我们的长期目标，即在 96 的综合比率下尽可能快地增长，并确保我们能够照顾好我们的客户。

David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登

Okay, great. That’s very helpful. And maybe just following up there, it sounds like the continuous monitoring that’s been an interesting development that -- I’m interested to hear what sort of impact that has had on underwriting profitability, and growth in the 12 states where you’ve rolled it out. And how we should think about that as you roll it out on more states? Is that something where we can maybe see a step change in terms of profitability or frequency or anything from that perspective just on -- just greater segmentation that you might get from that?

好的，太好了。这非常有帮助。顺便再跟进一下，听起来持续监控是一个有趣的发展——我有兴趣听到这在承保盈利能力和在您已经推出的12个州的增长方面产生了什么样的影响。我们应该如何考虑在推出更多州时的情况？这是否是我们可能会看到盈利能力或频率方面的一个阶段性变化，或者从那个角度来看，只是从更细致的细分中获得的任何东西？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I mean, I think from a cost perspective, obviously continuous is a little bit more expensive, but those costs have gone down over the years. But I think, what we’re excited about and what Jim talked about -- the excitement about is the services that we’re going to provide especially in some of the claims examples. So, we will continue to evolve like we have since 1996 with our UBI products. And we believe that we’ll continue to enhance our ability to out segment our competitors. What that means from the exact amount, we don’t know yet, but we’ll continue to monitor and I’m sure ever so often we’ll update you on where we’re at with our UBI offerings.

是的，我的意思是，我认为从成本的角度来看，连续性显然要贵一些，但这些年来成本已经下降了。但我认为，令我们感到兴奋的，也是吉姆所谈到的--令人兴奋的是我们将提供的服务，尤其是在一些索赔案例中。因此，我们将像 1996 年以来的 UBI 产品一样继续发展。我们相信，我们将继续加强我们的能力，超越我们的竞争对手。我们还不知道具体的数额是多少，但我们会继续关注，我相信我们会经常向大家通报我们在 UBI 产品方面的最新进展。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Alex Scott of Goldman Sachs.

下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

First question I had was just on -- all the potential new business just looking at the application growth and so forth. How is -- how does sort of the growth penalty from new business coming on look in this kind of environment maybe during prior periods?

我的第一个问题是关于 -- 所有潜在的新业务，仅从申请增长等方面来看。在这种环境下，也许在以前的时期，新业务的增长惩罚是怎样的？

Tricia Griffith  特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. You know, I’ve been thinking about that a lot because in times where we have high growth, we often talk about the new business penalty. And as I’m thinking about it, penalties from my perspective are something that is done to you because maybe you did something wrong. As an example, Sunday, I was watching our youngest son play Lacrosse. He got a penalty for slashing. He knew it. He was emotional. He did it. He took a knee. We’re a little bit different because the things that we do and the amount that we pay is all controllable.

是的，你知道，我一直在思考这个问题，因为在我们高速增长的时候，我们经常会谈论新业务罚款。在我思考的过程中，从我的角度来看，惩罚就是因为你做错了事情而对你进行的惩罚。举个例子，星期天，我在看我们的小儿子打长曲棍球。他因为砍人被罚下了。他知道。他很激动。他做到了。他跪了下来。我们有点不同，因为我们做的事情和付出的代价都是可控的。

As you witnessed when we pulled back on media and did some other things to make sure we reached our 96. So, from my perspective, what we are paying, so you’ll -- you saw the increase in January and our expense ratio specifically on the direct side because we front load our acquisition costs there. It’s really an investment in our future. It’s an investment for our owners, investment for our customers. So, it’s something that we’re excited to do in terms of how we manage the business? And again, we have the caveats with our ceiling of an aggregate, all business lines, 96 combined ratio. So it’s hard to compare from the past where we’ll go. But we know that this has been a really volatile environment and we have the levers to pull back should we need to and throttle forward should we need to.

正如你们所看到的，我们减少了媒体投入，并采取了一些其他措施，以确保达到 96%的目标。因此，从我的角度来看，我们所支付的费用，你们会看到一月份的增长，以及我们的费用率，特别是直接费用方面的增长，因为我们在前端加载了我们的收购成本。这确实是对我们未来的投资。这是对我们业主的投资，也是对我们客户的投资。因此，在如何管理业务方面，我们很高兴能这样做。同样，我们也要注意我们的上限，即所有业务线的综合比率为 96。因此，我们很难比较过去的情况。但我们知道，现在的环境确实很不稳定，如果需要，我们有杠杆可以后撤，如果需要，我们有油门可以前进。

So, can’t tell you the exact amount. I will tell you that we’re pretty excited about the position we are in right now. And again, we’re Progressive. So, we’re never going to be cocky and we’re always going to be really paranoid and we follow the data maniacally and talk about it all the time. But we are really excited about what we believe this hard market, however long it lasts, brings.

所以，我不能告诉你具体数额。但我可以告诉你，我们对现在的状况感到非常兴奋。再说一遍，我们是不断进取的。所以，我们永远不会自大，我们永远是真正的偏执狂，我们疯狂地关注数据，并一直谈论它。但我们真的很兴奋，我们相信这个艰难的市场会带来什么，无论它持续多久。

Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特

Second question I have maybe a little more applicable to the telematics. When I think through this and the pricing advantage that it gives you over some competitors that are not doing it to the same scale or maybe even just to the industry broadly, I appreciate you probably don’t want to like quantify some of these things, but could you kind of talk to us about directionally has that pricing advantage that it provides, has it expanded because of some of the things you’re doing? Or some of these things that you’re doing just allowing sort of your pricing advantage to be maintained as others begin to do more on the telematics front but not to the same degree? Or is it sort of diminishing as more competitors are just like more broadly adopting telematics? I guess, just high level if you could talk about that.

我的第二个问题也许更适用于远程信息处理系统。当我思考这个问题，以及它给你们带来的价格优势时，你们是否比一些没有达到同样规模的竞争对手，甚至可能只是行业内的竞争对手更有优势，我知道你们可能不想量化这些事情，但你们能不能跟我们谈谈，从方向上来说，你们提供的价格优势，是否因为你们正在做的一些事情而扩大了？或者说，当其他公司开始在远程信息处理方面做得更多，但却没有达到同样的程度时，你们正在做的这些事情只是让你们的定价优势得以保持？还是说，随着越来越多的竞争者开始更广泛地采用远程信息处理技术，这种优势会逐渐减弱？我想，如果你能谈谈这个问题的话，我想这只是一个高层次的问题。

Tricia Griffith  特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I’ll talk about it high level and then Jim and Cory can weigh in for their perspective on businesses. But one, it takes a lot to get history of driving behavior and to continuously learn on that. So, I think you have to have a headstart, which is why we sort of did a primer on the history of where we’ve been. We were out ahead of it, obviously, nearly three decades ago.

是的，我先从高层次谈起，然后吉姆和科里可以从他们的角度谈谈对企业的看法。但是，首先，要了解驱动行为的历史，并在此基础上不断学习，这需要很多时间。因此，我认为你必须有一个良好的开端，这也是为什么我们要对我们的历史做一个介绍。显然，近三十年前，我们就已经走在了前面。

A couple points though, I think the -- and one that Jim made is, I think it’s important to make sure that we are pricing rate to risk. So although customers are never happy when they get a surcharge, when they do and if they go somewhere else again, that’s adverse selection. So there is multiple pieces of not just the, N equals 1, but also what can happen from a competitive perspective. So, to be able to have the UBI as well as our other segmentations to truly understand that rate to risk in what John talked about with our underwriting acumen is also an important piece. I think it’s probably more important on the commercial line side from the perspective of, if I’m a good driver and I drive a truck, can I save money on my insurance, which is a big cost in the commercial line? So I don’t know if Jim or Cory, you want to add anything?

但有两点，我认为 -- 吉姆提出的一点是，我认为重要的是要确保我们根据风险来确定费率。因此，尽管客户在收到附加费时永远不会感到高兴，但当他们收到附加费时，如果他们再去其他地方，这就是逆向选择。因此，不仅是 "N 等于 1 "的问题，从竞争的角度来看，也有可能出现多种情况。因此，能够拥有 UBI 以及我们的其他细分市场，以真正了解约翰所谈到的承保敏锐度中的费率与风险之间的关系，也是非常重要的一部分。我认为，从 "如果我是一个好司机，我开卡车，我能否节省保险费用？"的角度来看，这可能对商业险种更为重要。所以我不知道吉姆或科里，你们还有什么要补充的吗？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Personal Lines side, yes, there is certainly more activity in UBI than there was 10 years ago, let’s say. We are just continuing to move our pricing forward, price more aggressively, take more advantage of that regardless of what anybody else is doing. We want to price as accurately as we can, and get as many people into that program as we can.

个人业务方面，是的，与 10 年前相比，UBI 的活动肯定更多了。我们只是在继续推进我们的定价工作，更加积极地定价，利用更多的优势，而不管其他人在做什么。我们希望尽可能准确地定价，让尽可能多的人参与到该计划中来。

Cory Fischer 科里-菲舍尔

Yes. Thanks, Alex. So for commercial auto, we are the largest commercial auto insurer and we are also number one in truck. And I think with that, we have a lot more data than anyone else. And so, we have, we feel like a leadership position in segmentation. I think telematics extends that leadership position relative to the marketplace. So, there are some companies that are investing in telematics. But I think between our size, the amount of data we have, we believe we are increasing the lead through telematics.

是的，谢谢，亚历克斯。在商业汽车保险方面，我们是最大的商业汽车保险公司，在卡车保险方面也是第一。我认为，我们比其他任何人都拥有更多的数据。因此，我们觉得我们在细分市场处于领先地位。我认为，远程信息处理技术扩大了我们在市场上的领先地位。因此，有一些公司正在投资远程信息处理技术。但我认为，从我们的规模和我们所拥有的数据量来看，我们相信我们正在通过远程信息处理技术扩大领先优势。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I’ll just add. So, over the history of the personal auto, evolution in telematics, early on, we weren’t pricing to the full curve. So, we understood that a lot of people should be receiving surcharges, and some people should be receiving bigger discounts. Because we were at the forefront and we are seeking consumer adoption, we didn’t price to that full curve. I think we are now very close to or almost completely pricing to that curve with the data we have today. However, as Jim was sharing, we can continue to advance the science, continue to pull additional data elements that can continue to have us leading the pack. So, our segmentation game is never ending. We are always trying to continue to advance, to find additional data to use that can keep us with a gap between us and the competition. And as Cory mentioned in the prepared comments with the slides, Commercial Lines is at an earlier stage similar to where Personal Lines was. We still have a significant loss ratio benefit in aggregate for telematics and Commercial Lines, which means, we have further pricing options that we can play as competitors come to market with their offering. So, I think we are in a great place from a telematics standpoint. We are not at all at the end of the journey. We are going to continue to evolve and continue to advance our competitive advantage, when it comes to pricing and telematics.

我补充一下。因此，在远程信息处理技术的个人汽车发展史上，早期我们并没有按照完整的曲线来定价。因此，我们明白，很多人应该得到附加费，有些人应该得到更大的折扣。因为我们走在前列，我们正在寻求消费者的采用，所以我们没有按照完整的曲线定价。我认为，根据我们现在掌握的数据，我们现在已经非常接近或几乎完全按照这条曲线定价了。不过，正如吉姆分享的那样，我们可以继续推进科学发展，继续获取更多数据元素，从而继续保持领先地位。因此，我们的细分游戏永无止境。我们一直在努力继续前进，寻找更多的数据，以保持我们与竞争对手之间的差距。正如科里在幻灯片的备注中提到的，商业险的发展阶段与个人险类似。在远程信息处理系统和商业险方面，我们仍有很大的损失率优势，这意味着当竞争对手推出新产品时，我们还有更多的定价选择。因此，我认为，从远程信息处理的角度来看，我们现在处于一个很好的位置。我们还没有走到尽头。在定价和远程信息处理方面，我们将继续发展，继续提升我们的竞争优势。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

I’ll add one last thing just because I think this is a subtle nuance, so really important. And Cory mentioned it a couple of times. When he’s thinking about telematics in his role, in his prior role and Commercial Lines, he’s talking to Jim and their team. He referred to his colleagues and learnings that they have. This is really common and very specific when you think about our strategic pillars. One is our people and our culture. Our culture is to go back and forth, whether it’s talent and rotational jobs, but understanding learnings from the first movers within the company. That is really key, and I think it’s really different because many of us -- I think Lori Niederst prior to her role when she prior to her role when she was in CHRO, she shared many years ago, the amount of depth in our leadership ranks because we think it’s really important for people to know many sides of the business. So although it’s subtle and it’s hard to measure, the way our culture is and the way our leaders work and the sharing of ideas and successes and opportunities is really important, especially in something like telematics.

我还要补充最后一点，因为我认为这是一个微妙的细微差别，非常重要。科里提到过几次。当他在自己的岗位上考虑远程信息处理技术时，在他之前的岗位上考虑商业线时，他都会与吉姆和他们的团队交谈。他提到了他的同事和他们的经验。当你考虑我们的战略支柱时，这确实很常见，也很具体。其一是我们的员工和文化。我们的文化是来回走动，无论是人才和轮岗，还是从公司内部的先行者那里了解经验。这真的很关键，而且我认为这真的很不同，因为我们中的很多人 -- 我想 Lori Niederst 在担任首席运营官之前，她多年前就分享过我们领导层的深度，因为我们认为人们了解业务的方方面面真的很重要。因此，尽管这很微妙，也很难衡量，但我们的企业文化和领导者的工作方式，以及分享想法、成功经验和机遇的方式，确实非常重要，尤其是像远程信息处理这样的业务。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Andrew Kligerman with Credit Suisse.

下一个问题来自瑞士信贷的安德鲁-克里格曼（Andrew Kligerman）。

Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼

Hey. Thanks a lot. Really helpful answer to that prior question, but I’d like to elaborate on it a bit. And just thinking about the fact that -- I don’t know, maybe 80%, 90% plus of the insured Personal Lines population utilizes Cambridge Mobile Telematics. I understand that Progressive’s data and analytics is incredibly robust, the segmentation, you talked about history and data use. But the competitors can see all that. So my question is this replicatable in a very fast fashion? What makes it so hard not to replicate given that you’re all using a similar platform?

嘿，非常感谢。对之前的问题的回答很有帮助，但我还想再详细说明一下。我不知道，可能有 80%、90% 以上的个人险投保人使用剑桥移动远程信息处理系统。我知道Progressive的数据和分析非常强大，细分市场，你也谈到了历史和数据使用情况。但竞争对手可以看到这一切。那么我的问题是，这是否可以快速复制？既然你们都在使用类似的平台，是什么原因导致难以复制？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I’ll let Jim talk about that more. Similar platform doesn’t mean we’re all using the same data or the same models or using the data in the same way. So one, it’s expensive to get into this. Over these last three years, we’ve invested a lot. So, you just can’t all of a sudden turn on, understand your data early on, it’s different. In urban and rural, it’s different with your other segmentation variables. But Cambridge is the platform, but we’re not all sharing the same data and outputting the same exact thing. Jim, do you want to add anything?

是的，我让吉姆再详细谈谈这个问题。相似的平台并不意味着我们都在使用相同的数据、相同的模型或以相同的方式使用数据。首先，进入这个领域的成本很高。在过去的三年里，我们投入了大量资金。所以，你不可能一下子就了解你的数据，这是不一样的。在城市和农村，你的其他细分变量也不一样。但剑桥是一个平台，但我们并不是共享同样的数据，输出同样的东西。吉姆，你还有什么要补充的吗？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Sure. You’re right. Cambridge Mobile is our partner. We’ve had a great relationship with them. They provide the data collection mechanism that gets embedded in the app. And so, we do get that data from them. And you’re right, most people use them in the industry. I think, what’s different is we own our own algorithm. We use that data the way we want to, and we’ve learned a lot over the years about how to make the most out of that data.

当然，你说得对。剑桥移动是我们的合作伙伴。我们与他们保持着良好的合作关系。他们提供嵌入到应用程序中的数据收集机制。因此，我们确实从他们那里获得了数据。你说得对，业内大多数人都在使用它们。我认为，不同之处在于我们拥有自己的算法。我们按照自己的方式使用这些数据，多年来，我们在如何充分利用这些数据方面学到了很多。

And I think you mentioned like everybody can see that. That’s not actually true. Most -- in the entire industry, most algorithms for UBI are filed confidentially in the states. So, those are not shared with all of the competitors. So, we can’t see other companies’ algorithms, they can’t see ours. So, we think we can -- we’ve developed an advantage there, and we can maintain that. We also have an OBD device which we offer some of our customers pick, which gives us another source of data, which we think helps calibrate some of that as well.

我想你提到的好像每个人都能看到。事实上并非如此。在整个行业中，大多数 UBI 算法都是在各州保密备案的。因此，这些算法不会与所有竞争对手共享。所以，我们看不到其他公司的算法，他们也看不到我们的算法。因此，我们认为，我们已经在这方面形成了优势，并且可以保持下去。我们还为一些客户提供了车载诊断设备，这为我们提供了另一个数据来源，我们认为这也有助于校准其中的一些数据。

Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼

Very helpful. And that’s pretty amazing, your accident response product, where you’ve got under 12 minutes to solve for some of the stuff on site. I’m wondering if you could share with us the fact that the impact on LAE and severity, any loss numbers? Anything you could share there to gain some insight into how that affects your loss ratios?

非常有帮助。而且，你们在事故响应产品方面的表现非常出色，你们能在12分钟内在现场解决一些问题。我想知道，你们能否与我们分享一些关于对理赔费用和严重性的影响，以及任何损失数字？你们能否分享一些信息，让我们更深入地了解这如何影响你们的损失比率？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I think that’s just too new. We’re just really dipping into this. We’ll probably have more on that in 18 to 24 months. Again, it’s something that we’re interested in. We’ve always been since probably 30 years ago want to make sure that we’re there for our customers and their greatest time of need. So, our -- the biggest thing that we want to do there is to help our customers get help when they need it. And if we can use the data from the impact to start the claim going and get them back into the position they were before the accident, give them that peace of mind. That’s pretty important. And that could relate to a lot of great benefits in terms of retention, et cetera. But again, way too soon to be able to share much on that and we’ll probably have more in a few years.

是的。我认为这个项目还太新。我们才刚刚开始探索。我们可能在18到24个月后会有更多信息。再次强调，我们对此感兴趣。从大约30年前开始，我们就一直致力于确保在客户最需要的时候为他们提供服务。所以，我们最想做的是在他们需要帮助的时候给予帮助。如果我们能够利用事故数据启动理赔流程，并帮助他们恢复到事故发生前的状态，给他们那种安心感，这是非常重要的。这可能与保留客户等许多好处有关。但同样，现在分享这方面的信息还为时过早，我们可能在几年后会有更多信息。

Andrew Kligerman 安德鲁-克里格曼

Got it. And just real quickly, you mentioned 40% increased usage in UBI. Could you tell us the percent adoption, a percent of the overall book of business that you have?

了解了。还有，你提到UBI的使用增加了40%。你能告诉我们采用UBI的比例吗？它占你总业务量的百分比是多少？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

From the new perspective, which is what we share externally, it’s higher in direct. Jim, correct me if I’m wrong, about 15% in the agency channel. A little bit lower? Okay. A little bit lower in the agency channel, and then more in the direct. We offer it to everyone in the direct channel coming in. And obviously, we work with over 40,000 independent agents. Some feel more comfortable making that offering. Not all do it, but we’ve seen an increase since 2019, which makes sense. And it’s a perfect fix if you believe that you drive safely and maybe you’re driving less often for new business across the board as other inflationary pressures hit consumers.

从我们对外分享的新视角来看，直销渠道的比例更高。吉姆，如果我错了请纠正我，大约15%在代理渠道。稍低一些？好的。代理渠道稍低一些，然后直销渠道更多。我们向直销渠道进来的每个人提供这项服务。显然，我们与超过40,000名独立代理人合作。有些人更愿意提供这种服务。并非所有人都这样做，但自2019年以来我们看到了增长，这是有道理的。如果你认为自己驾驶得安全，可能开车的频率也减少了，对于新业务来说，这是一个完美的解决方案，因为其他通货膨胀压力正在影响消费者。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

I’d just add that. So in the direct channel, the take rate is substantially higher than in the agency channel. It also offers that in the commercial space the demand through the agency channel is very robust. So, we’re talking about, especially with Smart Haul, which is generally larger trucks that have higher average insurance costs, the benefit of enrolling in a program like this is substantial. So, agents and consumers or business owners in this case are way more likely to select that as an option and as Cory said is highly predictive in that channel as well.

我会补充一点。所以在直销渠道，接受率比代理渠道要高得多。它还提供了在商业领域通过代理渠道的需求非常强劲。所以我们谈论的是，特别是Smart Haul，这通常是指大型卡车，它们的平均保险成本更高，参加这样的计划的好处是巨大的。因此，代理人和消费者或在这种情况下的企业主更有可能选择这个选项，正如Cory所说，在那个渠道上也具有很高的预测性。

Operator

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

下一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

My first question, Tricia, goes to some of your initial comments, right? You said that future rate would be driven by loss trend. I mean, I realize that it’s a very volatile environment these days, but what are your expectations for loss trend when we think about 2023?

特里西娅，我的第一个问题是关于你最初的一些评论，对吗？你说未来的费率将受损失趋势的影响。我的意思是，我知道现在的环境很不稳定，但当我们考虑到 2023 年时，你对损失趋势的预期是什么？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

We will just continue to watch it. That’s why I wanted to give you a little bit of insight in January taking 1.5 points. What we know is that we closely monitor a lot of these trends. And I mentioned a bunch of them. It’s been such a volatile several years that we look at our internal data, UBI data, macroeconomic trends, all I can tell you is that we will be able to react quickly and that’s sort of embedded in everything that we’ve done in the last 85 years. So, when we start to see those or see those trends and experience those trends, we’ll react quickly. And that’s why we feel like we’re in a good position because we were able to react quickly to the severity trends that we started to see in late 2021 and why we’re sitting in the position -- the enviable position we’re in now, to be able to profitably grow.

我们会继续关注。这就是为什么我在一月份想要给你一些洞见，我们拿了1.5个百分点。我们知道，我们密切监控了许多这些趋势。我提到了其中的许多。这是如此波动的几年，我们查看我们的内部数据、UBI数据、宏观经济趋势，我能告诉你的是，我们将能够迅速做出反应，这在某种程度上已经嵌入到我们过去85年所做的一切中。所以，当我们开始看到这些趋势或体验到这些趋势时，我们会迅速做出反应。这就是为什么我们认为我们处于一个有利位置，因为我们能够迅速对2021年末开始看到的严重性趋势做出反应，这也是我们现在能够盈利增长的原因。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

And then on the UBI side, I thought most of this was opted into right for new business customers. And I know that’s where you just gave some of the percentage. If you’re at current Progressive customer at renewal or just during the length of your policy, can you opt in and choose to use a Snapshot product, if you want to try to lower your rate?

然后，在 UBI 方面，我认为大部分都是新业务客户选择加入的。我知道这是你刚刚给出的部分百分比。如果你是 Progressive 的现有客户，在续保或保单有效期内，如果你想尝试降低费率，是否可以选择使用快照产品？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. And we actually did. It was in, I think 2021, maybe or 2022. I’m not sure exactly when we did, but we actually sent out material to our current customers, when trends started to change to make sure that they had that offering. And we had a small group except that. But yes, we want to be able to provide that if it makes sense for each driver. But it’s normally a new business.

是的我们确实做到了。我想是在 2021 年，也许是 2022 年。我不确定具体是什么时候，但在趋势开始发生变化时，我们确实向现有客户发送了材料，以确保他们能获得该产品。除此以外，我们还有一小群人。是的，如果对每个司机都有意义的话，我们希望能够提供这种服务。但这通常是一项新业务。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

Yes. That was when we saw COVID driving down materially and made an offer to our existing customers to save through Snapshot and not many took us up on that offer. So it’s open and available. Customers can do it. They just haven’t taken us up on it significantly.

是的。那是当我们看到COVID显著降低时，我们向现有客户提供了通过Snapshot节省费用的提议，但并没有很多人接受我们的提议。所以它是开放和可用的。客户可以做到。他们只是没有显著地接受我们的提议。

Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘

And then one more quick one. So you guys mentioned the new product is continuously monitoring. So the state that you’re active in with that Snapshot product, anyone that uses Snapshot has to be continuously monitored or can they opt into a different monitoring period?

还有一个快速问题。你们提到新产品是持续监控的。那么，在你们使用快照产品的状态下，任何使用快照的人都必须接受持续监控吗？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

So when they opt into the program, it is -- there is only continuous. You don’t get to pick at that. Obviously, we can’t force them to continue to monitor forever. So, we’ve got sort of -- the program is designed around that and accommodates when people stop giving us data, if they do, but we certainly encourage them to continue to grow that data. The biggest discounts are available that way and the program’s design that we’d be monitoring continuously.

因此，当他们选择加入该计划时，就只有连续性。你没有选择的权利。显然，我们不能强迫他们永远持续监控。因此，我们的计划就是围绕这一点设计的，当人们停止向我们提供数据时，如果他们停止提供数据，我们也会考虑，但我们当然鼓励他们继续增加数据。通过这种方式，我们可以获得最大的折扣。

Operator 操作员

Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Tracy, you have the floor.

请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。特雷西，请你发言。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Thank you. Even though you feel like you’ve approached rate adequacy in most states, I’m wondering, since you are growing quite quickly with lower ad spend, could you get away with getting even more rate? I mean, you did mention some of your competitors are exceeding you guys with rates. Do you feel like, it’s fine to be cheaper than some, given your risk selection?

谢谢。尽管你们觉得自己在大多数州的费率已经接近适当水平，但我想知道，既然你们的增长速度相当快，而广告支出却较低，你们是否可以获得更高的费率？我的意思是，你确实提到过你们的一些竞争对手在费率上超过了你们。你们是否觉得，考虑到你们的风险选择，比某些竞争对手便宜一些也没关系？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Well, we want to be competitive and we want to price to future loss trends. So, we continue to look at that and we will increase rates, should we see severity or frequency trends change, and that’s why I did give that data point in January. So we will stay on top of trends and we will continue to grow. And like John said, we haven’t opened up our aperture in terms of not looking at things that are important from our underwriting perspective. So we still have more leverage from that perspective. But now to -- for me, it is all about using the data and pricing accurately as quickly as possible to match each rate to risk.

我们希望保持竞争力，并根据未来的损失趋势进行定价。因此，我们将继续关注这一趋势，如果发现严重程度或频率趋势发生变化，我们将提高费率，这也是我在一月份给出这一数据点的原因。因此，我们将紧跟趋势，继续发展。就像约翰说的，我们还没有打开我们的视野，没有从我们的承保角度看那些重要的事情。因此，从这个角度来看，我们仍有更多的优势。但现在--对我来说，关键是利用数据，尽快准确定价，使每个费率与风险相匹配。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Got it. Could you also touch upon your initiative to raise retention amongst multiproduct customers that was mentioned in your filing yesterday? What are the key tenants to achieve that?

明白了。您能否也谈谈昨天在文件中提到的提高多产品客户保留率的举措？实现这一目标的关键因素是什么？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

We know that our customers and I think most consumers with insurance want stable rates. And so we want to be able to have, if possible, even in this kind of volatile environment what we call, small bites of the apple, to not have to increase rates like we had to in 2022 to stay ahead of trends. We also have very many offerings. So, we have whether it is in our Progressive Advantage Agency for we have a stable carrier of home, unaffiliated partners we work with to have more and more of those bundles, Wrights and Robinsons, we will continue to do that. And we really seek long-term to be sort of the destination company. And so whether it’s on our paper or not, we think of that in terms of our pillar of being where, when and how our customers want to shop and buy, so broad coverage. So, on the Personal Lines side, we sell other people’s home, company when it doesn’t necessarily say where we’re going to go. On the Commercial Lines side, we also use our product as well as others for a small business, workers’ comp, GL, et cetera.

我们的客户以及我认为大多数有保险的消费者都希望费率稳定。因此，我们希望能够在这种我们所说的动荡环境中，尽可能地采取小幅度调整，以避免像我们在2022年那样不得不提高费率以领先于趋势。我们也有许多产品提供。所以，无论是在我们Progressive Advantage代理处，我们有一个稳定的家庭保险公司，还是我们与之合作的非关联合作伙伴，我们有更多的捆绑产品，Wrights和Robinsons，我们将继续这样做。我们真正寻求长期成为人们心目中的目的地公司。因此，无论是在我们的文件上还是不在，我们认为这是我们作为支柱的一部分，即在客户想要购物和购买的地方、时间和方式，提供广泛的覆盖范围。所以，在个人保险方面，我们销售其他人的家庭保险，公司，当它不一定说明我们要去哪里。在商业保险方面，我们也使用我们的产品以及其他产品，用于小型企业、工人赔偿、一般责任等。

So, it really is about following the customer and the more we’re able to offer them, even with the Progressive Advantage Agency where it’s -- we work with a lot of different partners ranging from life insurance to travel insurance to jewelry insurance, the more that the customers have and the more that we’ve earned their trust, the longer they stay.

因此，我们真正要做的是追随客户，我们能够为客户提供的越多，即使是与 Progressive Advantage Agency 合作，我们与许多不同的合作伙伴合作，从人寿保险到旅游保险，再到珠宝保险，客户拥有的越多，我们赢得他们的信任越多，他们停留的时间就越长。

So, retention continues to be the holy grail. We’re seeing positive improvement. We’ll continue to report on that as the quarters unfold, but we do know two parts of retention are really about having stable rates and having great service.

因此，留住用户仍然是圣杯。我们看到了积极的改善。随着各季度的展开，我们将继续报告这方面的情况，但我们确实知道，留存率的两个部分实际上是稳定的费率和优质的服务。

Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉

Great. And is there a segment you’re focusing more on? Agency, will that be more a focus versus direct?

很好。你们更关注哪个细分市场？与直销相比，代理公司会更受关注吗？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

No. We focus across the board. They’re a little bit different in terms of control. So, an agent can decide if they want to shop it on behalf of the consumer, but they’re looking at the same thing as consumers are. And that’s making sure that our mutual customers have stable rates with a company with a great brand and great service. But our goal is to extend PLEs across every segment individually and in the aggregate.

不，我们的重点是全面的。他们在控制方面有一点不同。因此，代理人可以决定是否代表消费者购买，但他们所关注的与消费者相同。这就是确保我们的共同客户能在一家拥有优秀品牌和优质服务的公司获得稳定的费率。但我们的目标是将 PLEs 扩展到每个细分市场，无论是单独还是整体。

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

As Tricia was saying, Tracy, we’re continuing to broaden the offerings to our consumers. So, you talked about multi-product households as Tricia was implying those households stay with us a lot longer than single-product households and much longer than our historical core customer of Sam, who we call the inconsistently insured customer.

正如特里西娅所说，我们将继续扩大为消费者提供的服务。所以，正如特里西娅所暗示的那样，你谈到了多产品家庭，这些家庭与我们在一起的时间比单一产品家庭要长得多，也比我们过去的核心客户山姆（我们称之为 "不一致投保客户"）要长得多。

So, our book does continue to shift more towards the Robinson end of the spectrum which is actually the longer retaining end of the spectrum. We have, as Tricia also noted, seen a setback as we’ve had to raise rates aggressively. That is coming back. Our PLEs are starting to trend positively at least on the trailing 3 metric. And the trailing 12 is not yet fully turned, but certainly the trailing 3 is the leading indicator of the trailing 12.

因此，我们的账目确实在继续向罗宾逊一端转移，而这一端实际上是保留时间较长的一端。正如特里西娅（Tricia）所指出的，由于我们不得不积极提高费率，我们的业绩出现了倒退。这种情况正在恢复。我们的 PLE 开始呈现积极趋势，至少在追踪 3 个指标上是如此。尾随 12 个月的指标尚未完全转向，但尾随 3 个月的指标肯定是尾随 12 个月的领先指标。

So, we are definitely focusing on more multi-product households as we roll out new products in the personal auto space. Increasingly, we find segmentation that can make us more competitive for those preferred customers. Our book continues to shift that way. And as we get to a more stable rating environment, I think you’ll see our PLEs continue to grow as they have been before we had to take a lot of rate.

因此，随着我们在个人汽车领域推出新产品，我们肯定会关注更多的多产品家庭。我们发现，越来越多的细分市场能让我们在这些首选客户中更具竞争力。我们的客户群将继续向这一方向转变。随着我们的评级环境更加稳定，我想你会看到我们的 PLEs 将继续增长，就像我们不得不采取大量费率之前一样。

Operator 操作员

And our next question comes from Josh Shanker at Bank of America.

下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。

Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克

Could you please give some insight? You have the policy conversion and new application numbers for the full year 2022, but it seems like something inflected in the fourth quarter. Can you give some indication on what’s happening fourth quarter versus fourth quarter 2021 in quote conversion and new policy apps and maybe into ‘23 as well?

您能提供一些见解吗？你们有 2022 年全年的保单转换和新申请数据，但第四季度似乎出现了一些变化。您能否说明一下第四季度与 2021 年第四季度相比，在报价转换和新保单申请方面发生了什么变化，或许到 23 年也是如此？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. We don’t publish new apps on a quarterly basis, but we did want to show it for year-over-year in the opening slides we had. Basically, what happened was shopping started, the hard market started. We were in a good position, and there’s a lot of prospects that began shopping. And we had good coverage at great rates and we were able to convert. So, it’s really sort of when we started to see things turn. We were in a good position for that from a staffing perspective on the sales side and the claims side. But yes, that’s really kind of when we saw the hard market churn.

是的。我们不按季度发布新的应用程序，但我们确实想在开场幻灯片中展示同比数据。基本情况是，购物开始了，艰难市场开始了。我们处于有利位置，有很多潜在客户开始购买。我们有很好的覆盖面和很高的费率，而且我们能够进行转换。所以，这就是我们开始看到事情转机的时候。从销售和理赔方面的人员配置来看，我们处于有利位置。没错，我们就是在那时看到了市场的剧烈波动。

John, you want to add anything?

约翰，你想补充什么吗？

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

Sure. Josh, we do provide you year to date numbers through the third quarter and the fourth quarter. So, if you just assume an equal weighting, you can come to a number, but we also in the presentation showed you actual charts of those. So, you can’t see exactly what the number is, but you come pretty darn close by looking at those charts. So, the short story is conversion was up considerably in the fourth quarter. Prospects were up considerably in the fourth quarter, and obviously new apps as a consequence were up a lot.

乔希，我们确实提供了截至第三季度和第四季度的全年数据。因此，如果假设权重相等，你可以得出一个数字，但我们也在演示中向你展示了这些数字的实际图表。因此，你无法看到确切的数字，但通过观察这些图表，你会发现它们非常接近。所以，简而言之，第四季度的转换率大幅上升。第四季度的潜在客户大幅增加，显然新应用也因此增加了很多。

Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克

And question for the commercial side. Since acquiring Protective, can you talk a little bit about your large fleet offering and how that’s changed?

还有一个商业方面的问题。自从收购 Protective 公司后，你们能否谈谈你们的大型车队服务，以及这方面的变化？

John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰

Can you repeat the question, please?

你能重复一下问题吗？

Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克

I’m sorry. The question was, how has large fleet changed as part of your business since acquiring Protective?

我很抱歉。问题是，自从收购 Protective 公司后，大型车队作为贵公司业务的一部分发生了哪些变化？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Thanks. Not substantially. Yes. I mean, we’re still learning a lot and the integration’s going really well, and it was really something that was additive to what we were growing from our small fleet. So, we continue to be excited about the acquisition of Protective and will continue. And I’ve met a couple times with Mike Miller, who’s running Protective. He came from the commercial line side and is now running that. So he’ll be excited to have his growth plan in play. We’ve been focusing in the last year, so really on integrating the company within Progressive at large.

谢谢。不是实质性的。是的我的意思是，我们还在学习很多东西，整合工作进展得非常顺利，这对我们从小型车队发展而来的业务来说，确实是雪上加霜。因此，我们仍对收购 Protective 感到兴奋，并将继续下去。我和负责 Protective 业务的 Mike Miller 见过几次面。他来自商业线，现在负责商业线。因此，他很高兴能实施自己的发展计划。在过去的一年里，我们一直专注于将公司整合到整个 Progressive 公司中。

Operator 操作员

Our next question is coming from Meyer Shields with KBW.

下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Great. Two related questions, I think. This is on slide 26 with a 15% participation discount. The first is I was hoping you could talk us through what underpinned the decision to raise the discount. I would’ve probably naively guessed that incremental information has less marginal utility. And the second question is all of equal, if I’m a bad driver and I get a surcharge, then I get a bigger participation discount, then how does that factor into I guess retention and profitability?

很好。我认为有两个相关的问题。这是在第26页，有一个15%的参与折扣。第一个是，我希望你能向我们解释一下提高折扣的决定背后的原因。我可能天真地猜测，额外信息的边际效用较小。第二个问题是，如果我是一个糟糕的司机，我得到了附加费，然后我得到了更大的参与折扣，那么这如何影响我想保留和盈利能力呢？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I’ll let Jim talk about that. I think the larger discount is what John was saying. We’re pricing to the curve -- to the full curve. And so we know those customers are -- have great driving behaviors and we’re going to add them. And of course, the adverse election is on the drivers that are not so good in the surcharges.

是的，我让吉姆来谈这个问题。我认为约翰所说的是更大的折扣。我们是根据曲线定价的。因此，我们知道这些客户有很好的驾驶行为，我们将增加这些客户。当然，附加费对那些驾驶行为不佳的驾驶员产生不利影响。

Do you want anything, Jim?

你想要什么吗，吉姆？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Sure. Yes. Raised the participation discount, in part we’re going to continue as we’re asking customers to do more in that case, and we wanted to encourage them. And the participation discount creates a larger incentive for that. As for how it would relate if you ultimately got a surcharge on the renewal term, the participation discount is only for the first term. So it’s removed, when you get to the renewal. And so, a bad driver is now getting a larger surcharge and they’re getting a larger discount removed off the first term, which would get us priced more accurately on them in the subsequent terms, which is the goal. So, the participation discount is there to encourage people to participate, and then we just price as accurately as we can on the subsequent terms.

当然，是的。提高参与折扣，部分原因是我们将继续要求客户在这种情况下做得更多，我们希望鼓励他们。参与折扣为此提供了更大的激励。至于如果你最终在续期时被征收附加费会有什么影响，参与折扣只针对第一期。因此，当你续保时，它就会被取消。因此，不良驾驶者现在会被征收更多的附加费，他们在第一个保险期限中会被取消更多的折扣，这将使我们在后续保险期限中对他们的定价更加准确，这也是我们的目标。因此，参与折扣是为了鼓励人们参与，然后我们会尽可能准确地对后续条款进行定价。

Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹

Second question, I’m thinking of California, but there may be other regions where rating flexibility is limited. It seems like the economic benefits are of UBI monitoring are enormous. Is there a chance of getting this incorporated into the rating algorithms for more risky states?

第二个问题，我想到的是加利福尼亚州，但也可能有其他地区的评级灵活性有限。看来，UBI 监测的经济效益是巨大的。是否有可能将其纳入风险更大的州的评级算法中？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

We’d love to be in California. That’s kind of a history from a lot of the proposition 103, things that came up many, many decades ago. We want to grow in California. We talked about that a lot. It’s the most populous state. But in the meantime, we will continue to work with the department to get the rates that we need to make sure that we reach our target profit margins.

我们很想去加州。这是很多 103 号提案的历史，很多很多年前就有了。我们希望在加州发展。我们谈了很多。加州是人口最多的州。但与此同时，我们将继续与该部门合作，以获得我们所需的费率，确保我们达到目标利润率。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler. Paul, go ahead with your question.

下一个问题来自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。保罗，请继续提问。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Good morning. Thanks for the call. I was hoping you could talk a little bit about if the telematics, particularly the continuous use of telematics are allowing you to effectively change prices faster if the environment changes without having to actually file a rate change. It sounds like that’s possible, but I don’t know enough about how the formulas work for telematics products to know if you can effectively react to environmental changes through the telematics product without actually changing the filing?

早上好感谢您的来电。我希望你能谈谈远程信息处理技术，尤其是远程信息处理技术的持续使用是否能让你在环境发生变化时更快地有效改变价格，而无需实际提交费率变更。听起来是有可能的，但我对远程信息处理产品的计算公式还不够了解，不知道您是否可以通过远程信息处理产品对环境变化做出有效反应，而无需实际更改申报？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Good question, Paul. I’ll let Jim take that.

问得好，保罗。我让吉姆来回答。

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Paul, you’re right. The customer is continuously monitoring and they’re driving changes dramatically, like because of a pandemic or something like that, the telematics rating on the renewal would pick that up over time. In terms of the effect of that, you have to just -- we just started to roll out continuous last year. For the first six months, it looks just like it did before, it’s not until the renewal that it changes, a lot of the states we elevated were towards the back half of the year. So they’re just coming up on their first renewal, so. And then you need to build up a bigger -- that will grow over time to be a bigger share of the in-force book. But right now, it’s still early days of that. So it will be a little while before that’s like a really effective mechanism for that. Plus, we would need to get the rate on all the people who aren’t in UBI, we would do that through traditional means.

保罗，你说得对。如果客户的驾驶行为发生了重大变化，比如发生了大流行病或类似情况，那么远程信息处理系统的续保评级就会随着时间的推移而提高。就其效果而言，你必须知道，我们去年才开始连续推出远程信息处理系统。在前六个月，它看起来就像以前一样，直到续保时才会发生变化，我们提升的很多州都是在今年下半年。所以，他们的第一次续保才刚刚开始。然后，你需要建立一个更大的 -- 随着时间的推移，它将在有效保单中占据更大的份额。但现在，这还为时尚早。因此，要成为真正有效的机制还需要一段时间。此外，我们还需要获得所有未加入 UBI 的人员的费率，我们将通过传统方式来实现这一点。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Can you talk about how quickly you can change the algorithm as well? Is that something that means that something can go into a filing or we effectively just change the algorithm for both the continuous and the non-continuous, if you see an environmental change of some type?

您能谈谈改变算法的速度吗？这是否意味着，如果你看到某种类型的环境变化，就可以将某些东西归档，或者我们只是有效地改变连续和非连续的算法？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Typically, that’s sort of filing. We file the algorithm of the states confidentially and that’s typically how that would be done.

通常情况下，这是一种归档。我们以保密方式提交各州的算法，通常就是这样做的。

Paul Newsome 保罗-纽森

Great. Thank you. That was my questions. These are wonderful calls. Thank you very much.

太好了谢谢这就是我的问题。这些电话很精彩。非常感谢。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Gregory Peters with Raymond James.

下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司的格雷戈里-彼得斯。

Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯

Most of my telematics questions have been answered. Tricia, in one of your comments you talked about media spend. I know you guys go through an annual budget. Can you talk to us about your perspective on your advertising media budget for 2023 versus 2022?

我的大部分远程信息处理问题都得到了解答。特里西娅，你在一次评论中谈到了媒体支出。我知道你们每年都有预算。您能谈谈您对 2023 年与 2022 年广告媒体预算的看法吗？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. So, I mean, we absolutely do a budget, but then ongoing, we assess it based on the efficiency of the spend. We look at our targeted acquisition cost, our cost per sale and then -- and kind of where we’re getting the business from. So I talked a little bit about ambient shopping, which, of course, is really efficient. We’re in a little bit more of that position now. But, what we will do is as the year progresses, we will continually assess what we need to do to spend more if we believe it’s efficient or pull back if we believe we’re butting up against our 96 ceiling. And those are conversations that happen continuously.

是的，所以，我的意思是，我们绝对会做预算，但随后我们会根据支出的效率进行评估。我们看我们的目标收购成本、每次销售成本，然后 -- 以及我们从哪里获得业务。因此，我谈到了一些环境购物，这当然是非常有效的。我们现在在这方面做得更多一些。但是，我们要做的是，随着时间的推移，我们会不断评估我们需要做什么，如果我们认为这是有效的，我们就会增加支出；如果我们认为我们已经达到了 96% 的上限，我们就会减少支出。这些对话将持续进行。

Some things we -- to get sort of advanced discounts we pay for upfront. So those are kind of -- those spend. But we have a lot of flexibility, especially on the digital side to bolt back should we need to, like you saw in the last year. So, we have a budget, it’s fluid. And over the years, it can go up or down depending on what we believe is in the best interest of profitably growing the Company.

有些东西我们要提前付款，以获得折扣。因此，这些都是花销。但我们有很大的灵活性，尤其是在数字方面，如果我们需要，我们可以像去年那样进行调整。所以，我们有一个预算，它是流动的。多年来，预算可增可减，取决于我们认为最有利于公司利润增长的因素。

Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯

Does that answer mean that the budget is higher for ‘23 versus ‘22? I’m not sure what it means.

这个答案是否意味着 23 年的预算高于 22 年？我不确定是什么意思。

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

At this point in time, it could be higher. I mean things changed. So, it was higher last year. If you would have asked me this last January, I said it would be higher than the year before, but it didn’t end up being that because we had to make some flexibility. So, we budget for what we think can happen with a lot of flexibility.

此时此刻，它可能更高。我的意思是事情发生了变化。所以，去年会更高。如果你去年一月份问我这个问题，我说会比前年高，但最终并没有那么高，因为我们不得不做出一些灵活的调整。所以，我们的预算是根据我们认为可能发生的情况编制的，有很大的灵活性。

John Sauerland  约翰-绍尔兰

A couple of adds there. So it’s -- I would characterize it as dynamic and opportunistic. So, to the extent we feel we’re adequately priced, we’re going to spend a lot more on advertising. Again, with as Tricia said, an eye towards our targeted acquisition cost that we priced into the product and our lifetime economics on those policies. But, if you look at our expense ratio, especially our direct expense ratio for January, as an example, you can see it was up. So, clearly, through the latter part of last year as we were working hard to ensure we hit our 96 combined ratio for the year, you saw that expense ratio drop which was driven to a large degree by lower advertising costs. In January, you saw that pop back up, which is a great indicator that we’re spending more on advertising right now.

那里增加了一些内容。因此，我将其描述为动态和机会主义。因此，只要我们觉得定价合理，我们就会在广告上投入更多。同样，正如特里西娅（Tricia）所说，我们的目标是将获取成本纳入产品定价和保单的终身经济效益中。但是，如果你看看我们的费用率，尤其是一月份的直接费用率，你就会发现它是上升的。因此，很明显，在去年下半年，当我们努力确保达到 96% 的年度综合费用率时，你们看到了费用率的下降，这在很大程度上是由于广告成本的降低。今年一月份，费用率又有所回升，这充分说明我们现在的广告支出增加了。

Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯

Okay. My second question was on reinsurance. Now, the market’s hard that you’ve had. Obviously, reinsurance is an important part of your story last year. Can you talk to us about your perspective on reinsurance and how it might change this year versus last year?

好的。我的第二个问题是关于再保险的。现在，你们的市场很艰难。显然，再保险是你们去年业绩的重要组成部分。您能否谈谈您对再保险的看法，以及今年与去年相比可能会有哪些变化？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes, absolutely. We have Brandon [ph] here who runs our reinsurance organization. So, I’ll have him weigh in.

是的，当然。布兰登[音]在这里负责我们的再保险组织。所以，我会让他参与进来。

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

Thanks for the question on reinsurance. I mean, I think we -- particularly with how we adapted to the placement at 1/1, we’ll carry that forward to how we look to our June placement, which is really the core part of our program. We tend to be fairly conservative in how we want to retain property cat losses. I think we’ll continue that. We’ll have to be flexible in what the market is willing to offer as far as how we can tailor that to what we decide to purchase.

谢谢你关于再保险的问题。我的意思是，我认为我们--尤其是我们如何适应 1/1 的分保，我们将把这一点带到我们 6 月份的分保中，这实际上是我们计划的核心部分。在如何保留财产损失方面，我们倾向于采取相当保守的做法。我认为我们会继续这样做。至于我们如何根据我们决定购买的产品量身定做，我们必须灵活应对市场愿意提供的条件。

Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯

Does that mean you’re going to have a higher deductible or a lower deductible?

这意味着您的免赔额会更高还是更低？

Unidentified Company Representative

身份不明的公司代表

It’s a little early to say exactly where we’re going to land on that. Certainly, the bottom end of reinsurance programs have seen a lot of pressure, not just this year but over the last couple of years. We will be looking at other creative options if need be to manage our retention.

现在就断言我们在这方面的具体进展还为时尚早。当然，再保险计划的底端面临着很大的压力，不仅是今年，在过去几年中也是如此。如有必要，我们将寻求其他创新方案来管理我们的自留额。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Michael Ward with Citi.

下一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克尔-沃德。

Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德

I did have a question on telematics, specifically the OEM data and vehicles. Just curious if you have any data on the capabilities of the existing vehicles on the road in the U.S. It just -- it seems like that might be limited to more newer vehicles with cellular data connections, which I get the sense might be -- at least currently might be a fairly small chunk of the vehicle population in the U.S., just given turnover. So, just wondering if you can elaborate on that at all.

我有一个关于远程信息处理的问题，特别是原始设备制造商数据和车辆。我只是好奇，你们是否有关于美国道路上现有车辆功能的任何数据。看起来，这可能仅限于更多带有蜂窝数据连接的新型车辆，我感觉这可能是--至少目前可能是美国车辆总数中相当小的一部分，只是考虑到更替率。所以，不知道你能否详细说明一下。

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Yes, you’re correct. The firm we’re talking about depends upon vehicles with the cellular connection as we’re referring to OEMs over the last several years have been investing in that. They’re in really different places depending on the OEM. Some are -- have had been there for a number of years, some are still working on it. So, it’s -- and it does take a while for the fleet to turn over. So, it’s very focused on a few OEMs and the most recent model years. But as we mentioned, we’ve got relationships with GM and Toyota, which are two of the larger ones. They’ve got more of an installed base. And we expect other -- almost every OEM is moving in this direction. So we expect that this population will grow over time.

是的，你说得对。我们所说的公司依赖于带有蜂窝连接的车辆，就像我们所说的原始设备制造商在过去几年里一直在这方面进行投资。根据原始设备制造商的不同，它们所处的位置也不尽相同。有的已投入多年，有的仍在努力。因此，车队需要一段时间才能翻身。因此，它主要集中在几家原始设备制造商和最近几年的车型上。但正如我们提到的，我们已经与通用汽车和丰田汽车建立了合作关系，这是其中两家规模较大的公司。它们的装机量更大。我们预计，几乎所有的原始设备制造商都在朝着这个方向发展。因此我们预计，随着时间的推移，这一群体将会不断壮大。

Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德

And then maybe could you discuss kind of the take-up between OEM data versus using the mobile phone app route? It just seems like there’s more hurdles involved in the mobile app, and that maybe that’s why take-up wasn’t great initially. And so sort of curious about how you see those 2 trending?

然后，也许你可以讨论一下 OEM 数据与使用手机应用程序之间的使用率？使用手机应用似乎会遇到更多的障碍，也许这就是最初使用率不高的原因。您对这两种方式的发展趋势有何看法？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Adoption in the whole program overall has been up, and we’re happy with the adoption of both mobile and OEM. So we’re happy with both of those programs. We just offer different options to consumers depending on how they want to share that data. And so we’re just trying to get the biggest footprint we can and both have been increasing.

整个计划的采用率总体上在上升，我们对移动和 OEM 的采用率都很满意。因此，我们对这两项计划都很满意。我们只是根据消费者想要分享数据的方式，为他们提供不同的选择。因此，我们正在努力扩大我们的覆盖范围，而这两项计划都在不断增长。

Michael Ward 迈克尔-沃德

Okay. So maybe just to elaborate on that. I think you guys mentioned that the take-up or the adoption wasn’t great for existing customers. And so, I’m just curious what -- why might it be great for new customers than -- is part of it, just the competitors raising rates currently or the shopping is up?

好吧，那就再详细说说。我想你们提到过，现有客户的接受度或采用率并不高。所以，我很好奇，为什么新客户会比老客户多，是竞争对手提高了费率，还是购物量增加了？

Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯

Yes. I would just say it’s one of the things that new business when you’re asking for a bunch of data to kind of assess the rate to risk. When I talked about the current customers, we were doing that in 2020 because we knew people were struggling with their finances. Everything was going up from groceries to et cetera. So we did sort of a marketing campaign and just most people didn’t do it. I think you get sort of -- just like anything, whether it’s life insurance or health insurance you sort of make that decision and then you stick with it. It’s something you don’t necessarily want to do again. So, it’s just easier to do a new business when we’re acquiring all the information we need for an accurate rate.

是的，我想说的是，新业务需要大量数据来评估风险率。当我谈到目前的客户时，我们在 2020 年就开始这样做了，因为我们知道人们正在为财务问题而挣扎。从食品杂货到其他东西，所有东西都在上涨。因此，我们开展了营销活动，但大多数人并没有这样做。我认为你会得到一种 -- 就像任何事情一样，无论是人寿保险还是医疗保险，你都会做出这样的决定，然后坚持下去。这是你不一定想再做的事情。因此，当我们获得准确费率所需的所有信息时，做新业务就会变得更容易。

Operator 操作员

Our next question comes from Ryan Tunis with Autonomous.

下一个问题来自 Autonomous 公司的 Ryan Tunis。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

I had a couple on just the UBI stuff. So, the first one, just thinking about the collision detection. I’m curious if maybe that could potentially have some kind of impact on frequency because I would think that there’d be a lot of customers with kind of smaller dollar claims that wouldn’t want to tell their insurance company, they got in the crash and just to keep their -- the rates where they are. So is there any possibility that you knowing that they got in the crash that potentially lead to you actually getting more claims in the door?

我有几个关于 UBI 的问题。第一个问题是关于碰撞检测。我很好奇，这是否会对理赔频率产生某种潜在影响，因为我认为会有很多理赔金额较小的客户不愿意告诉他们的保险公司，他们出了车祸，只是为了保持他们的费率。那么，如果你知道他们出了车祸，是否有可能导致你实际上得到更多的理赔呢？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

Yes. Thank you, Ryan. It’s a good question. In this particular case, the way the crash detection algorithm works, it’s looking really for more severe accidents. It’s not trying to pick up fender benders. So, these are claims that we fully expect would have gotten reported either way. These aren’t small dollar claims, where somebody might just choose either not to repair or to handle it out of pocket. These are larger claims. So, we don’t think of it. We think we’ve gotten these claims anyway.

是的，谢谢你，瑞安这是个好问题在这种特殊情况下，碰撞检测算法的工作方式 它真正寻找的是更严重的事故它并不是要检测剐蹭事故。因此，这些理赔申请我们完全认为无论如何都会上报。这些不是小金额索赔，有人可能只是选择不维修或自掏腰包处理。这些都是金额较大的索赔。所以，我们没有想到这一点。我们认为无论如何我们都会收到这些索赔。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

Got it. And then I guess just thinking about some of the telematics. So one question I had was for the drivers that you find giving really big discounts to be like 40%, what -- if you look at like kind of the traditional insurance rating variables you used that are not in telematics space, I don’t know, ZIP code, FICO, whatever, can you draw any conclusions about like when you’re giving really big discounts to customers, which of the variables tend to have been kind of the shakiest predictive indicators? That’s the first part. And then also I was just curious about is when you find yourself giving a surcharge for the continuous, like six months later, you gave the discount, how you’re giving a surcharge, what are the main reasons that you’re finding that you’re having to give a surcharge after getting a discount?

明白了然后我想我在想一些远程信息处理技术。我想问的一个问题是，对于那些你认为能提供40%大折扣的司机，如果你看看你使用的那些不在远程信息处理领域的传统保险评级变量，我不知道，邮政编码、FICO之类的，你能得出什么结论，比如当你给客户提供大折扣时，哪些变量往往是最不可靠的预测指标？这是第一部分。我还想知道的是，当你发现自己在打折后的六个月内连续收取附加费时，你是如何收取附加费的，你发现在打折后不得不收取附加费的主要原因是什么？

Jim Haas 吉姆-哈斯

So, on the first part of your question in terms of how -- what are the traditional variables and what it informs, the whole point of UBI that is incremental to all of that. So, if we could have seen that these variables without UBI, we’re inaccurate, we would have fixed it. UBI gives us new information about that customer that the traditional variables tend to let you segment further, not just live in the ZIP code or they have this credit score. But this person within that is different than the other person that otherwise looks the same. So, that’s the point, it’s improving the segmentation.

因此，关于你的问题的第一部分，即如何 -- 什么是传统变量以及它所提供的信息，UBI 的整个要点是所有这些变量的增量。因此，如果我们发现这些变量在没有 UBI 的情况下是不准确的，我们就会进行修正。UBI 为我们提供了关于客户的新信息，传统变量往往会让你进一步细分客户，而不仅仅是住在邮政编码内或他们有这样的信用评分。但其中的这个人与其他看起来相同的人是不同的。所以，这就是问题所在，它正在改进细分。

In terms of the surcharge, the discount we give is a participation discount, which is just for signing up. And so, if they move from the discount surcharge, it’s simply because we’ve then gotten that driving data and continuous model, theoretically, people could move from one to the other. But in terms of why someone will get a surcharge, our model, as we kind of share on the website, it uses things like hard braking, how much you drive, when you drive variables like that. So folks who tend to get a surcharge drive more and drive -- have more hard brakes. This is a sign of how aggressively they’re driving. Those are typically some of the variables that figure into that.

就附加费而言，我们提供的折扣是参与折扣，仅用于注册。因此，如果他们从折扣转为附加费，只是因为我们已经获得了驾驶数据和连续模型，理论上，人们可以从一个转为另一个。至于为什么有人会被征收附加费，我们的模型，正如我们在网站上分享的那样，它使用了诸如急刹车、驾驶次数、驾驶时间等变量。因此，往往会被征收附加费的人开车更多，刹车也更猛。这表明他们开车有多猛。这些通常就是其中的一些变量。

Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯

Got it. And just I guess following up, so I hear you it’s incremental. But what about just in terms of conclusion, is it usually -- can you say anything about those who get 40% tend to largely be much more preferred or those who get kind of in the 40% discount tend to be more mixed or tend to be a little bit more on -- a little bit less standard?

知道了我想我只是想跟进一下，所以我听到你说这是渐进的。但就结论而言，它通常 -- 你能说说那些获得 40% 优惠的人在很大程度上更受青睐，还是那些获得 40% 优惠的人更喜忧参半，或者更倾向于 -- 标准更低一点？

Jim Haas

I think the UBI is kind of showing us it’s incremental to all of that. So the -- intentionally, we don’t want it to look that way. We want it to be -- if we knew the preferred customers were more likely to get the discount, we’d just give them a bigger discount in the first place. So, we try to use UBI to kind of sort out this preferred customer deserves an even bigger discount. This other preferred customer deserves maybe a surcharge. So, it’s really -- it’s segmenting beyond what we already have.

我认为 UBI 向我们展示了它在所有这些方面的渐进性。因此，我们不想让它看起来像那样。我们希望它是 -- 如果我们知道首选客户更有可能获得折扣，我们一开始就会给他们更大的折扣。因此，我们尝试使用 UBI 来分拣出这个优先客户应该得到更大的折扣。而另一位优先顾客则可能需要支付附加费。所以，这真的是--这是在我们已有的基础上进行的细分。

Doug Constantine 道格-康斯坦丁

We’ve exhausted our scheduled time. And so that concludes our event. Stacy, I will hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.

我们已经用完了预定的时间。我们的活动到此结束斯泰西，我把电话交还给你，请你写结束语。

Operator 操作员

That concludes the Progressive Corporation’s fourth quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive’s website for the next year. You may now disconnect.