2023-07-25 Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call July 25, 2023 5:30 PM ET
微软公司（纳斯达克股票代码：MSFT）2023 年第四季度收益电话会议 2023 年 7 月 25 日 下午 5:30（东部时间）
Company Participants 公司参与者
Brett Iversen - VP, IR
布雷特·伊弗森 - 副总裁，投资者关系
Satya Nadella - Chairman & CEO
萨蒂亚·纳德拉 - 董事长兼首席执行官
Amy Hood - EVP & CFO
艾米·胡德 - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Keith Weiss - Morgan Stanley
基思·韦斯 - 摩根士丹利
Brent Thill - Jefferies
布伦特·希尔 - 杰弗里斯
Mark Moerdler - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
马克·默德勒 - 桑福德·C·伯恩斯坦公司
Kasthuri Rangan - Goldman Sachs Group
卡斯图里·兰甘 - 高盛集团
Aleksandr Zukin - Wolfe Research
亚历山大·祖金 - 沃尔夫研究
Mark Murphy - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
马克·墨菲 - 摩根大通公司
Karl Keirstead - UBS
卡尔·基尔斯特德 - 瑞银
Kirk Materne - Evercore ISI
柯克·马特恩 - Evercore ISI
Operator 操作员
Greetings, and welcome to the Microsoft Fiscal Year 2023 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].
问候，并欢迎参加微软 2023 财年第四季度收益电话会议。【操作员指示】。
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Brett Iversen, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Iversen, please go ahead.
我现在想把会议交给您的主持人布雷特·艾弗森，投资者关系副总裁。艾弗森先生，请开始吧。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer; Alice Jolla, Chief Accounting Officer; and Keith Dolliver, Deputy General Counsel.
下午好，感谢您今天加入我们。与我一起通话的有 Satya Nadella，董事长兼首席执行官；Amy Hood，首席财务官；Alice Jolla，首席会计官；以及 Keith Dolliver，副总法律顾问。
On the Microsoft Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today's call and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed outlook slides will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today's call.
在微软投资者关系网站上，您可以找到我们的收益新闻稿和财务摘要幻灯片，这些内容旨在补充我们今天通话中的准备好的讲话，并提供通用会计准则和非通用会计准则财务指标之间的差异调和。当我们在今天的通话中提供展望评论时，更详细的展望幻灯片将在微软投资者关系网站上提供。
On this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's fourth quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.
在这次通话中，我们将讨论某些非通用会计准则项目。提供的非通用会计财务指标不应被视为通用会计准则准备的财务绩效指标的替代品或优越品。它们作为额外的澄清项目包括在内，以帮助投资者进一步了解公司第四季度的表现，以及这些项目和事件对财务结果的影响。
All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year, unless otherwise noted. We'll also provide growth rates in constant currency when available as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only.
今天通话中我们进行的所有增长比较都与去年同期相关，除非另有说明。我们还将在可能的情况下提供恒定货币的增长率，作为评估我们基础业务表现的框架，排除外汇汇率波动的影响。如果恒定货币下的增长率相同，我们将只提到增长率。
We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available. Today's call is being webcast live and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.
我们将在电话结束后立即将我们准备好的发言发布到我们的网站上，直到完整的文字记录可用为止。今天的电话会议正在现场网络直播和录制。如果您提出问题，您的问题将包括在我们的现场传输中，在文字记录中，并在录音的任何未来使用中。您可以在微软投资者关系网站上重播电话，并查看文字记录。
During this call, we'll be making forward-looking statements, which are predictions, projections or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the Risk Factors section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
在这次通话中，我们将发表前瞻性声明，这些声明是关于未来事件的预测、投影或其他声明。这些声明基于当前的期望和假设，受到风险和不确定性的影响。实际结果可能会有重大差异，因为今天发布的收益新闻稿中讨论的因素，在本次电话会议中提到的评论，以及我们的 10-K 表格、10-Q 表格和其他与证券交易委员会的报告和申报中的风险因素部分。我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的责任。
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Satya.
随着这个，我将把电话交给萨蒂亚。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Thank you very much, Brett. We had a solid close to our fiscal year. The Microsoft Cloud surpassed $110 billion in annual revenue, up 27% in constant currency, with Azure all-up accounting for more than 50% of the total for the first time. Every customer I speak with is asking not only how, but how fast they can apply next-generation AI to address the biggest opportunities and challenges they face, and to do so safely and responsibly.
非常感谢，布雷特。我们在财政年度结束时取得了稳固的成绩。微软云服务的年收入超过了 1100 亿美元，按恒定货币计算增长了 27%，Azure 全面贡献的收入首次超过了总收入的 50%。我与每位客户交谈时，他们都不仅询问如何，而且询问如何快速地应用下一代人工智能来应对他们面临的最大机遇和挑战，并且要安全、负责地这样做。
To that end, we remain focused on 3 key priorities: first, helping customers use the breadth and depth of Microsoft Cloud to get the most value on to their spend; second, investing to lead in the new AI platform shift by infusing AI across every layer of the tech stack; and third, driving operating leverage.
为此，我们将专注于 3 个关键优先事项：首先，帮助客户充分利用微软云的广度和深度，使他们的支出获得最大价值；其次，通过在技术堆栈的每一层注入人工智能，投资领先于新的人工智能平台转变；第三，推动运营杠杆。
微软的转型和接受新事物的能力值得进一步观察，这是自我更新的能力。
Now I'll highlight examples of our progress, starting with infrastructure. Azure continues to take share as customers migrate their existing workloads and invest in new ones. We continue to see more cloud migrations, as it remains early when it comes to long-term cloud opportunity. We are also seeing increasing momentum with Azure Arc, which now has 18,000 customers, up 150% year-over-year, including Carnival Corp., Domino's, Thermo Fisher. And Azure AI is ushering in new born-in-the-cloud AI-first workloads, with the best selection of frontier and open models, including Meta's recent announcements supporting Llama on Azure and Windows, as well as OpenAI.
现在我将重点介绍我们的进展示例，从基础设施开始。Azure 继续在客户迁移其现有工作负载并投资于新工作负载时占据份额。我们继续看到更多的云迁移，因为在长期云机会方面仍处于早期阶段。我们还看到 Azure Arc 的势头增强，目前拥有 18,000 名客户，同比增长 150%，包括嘉年华集团、Domino's、Thermo Fisher 等。Azure AI 正在引领云原生 AI 优先工作负载的新发展，拥有最佳的前沿和开放模型选择，包括 Meta 最近宣布支持 Llama 在 Azure 和 Windows 上，以及 OpenAI。
We have great momentum across Azure OpenAI Service. More than 11,000 organizations across industries, including IKEA, Volvo Group, Zurich Insurance, as well as digital natives like Flipkart, Humane, Kahoot, Miro, Typeface, use the service. That's nearly 100 new customers added every day this quarter. Mercedes-Benz, for example, is bringing ChatGPT via Azure OpenAI to more than 900,000 vehicles in the United States, making its in-car voice assistant more intuitive. And Moody's built its own internal copilot to improve productivity of its 14,000 employees.
我们在 Azure OpenAI 服务方面有着强劲的势头。包括宜家、沃尔沃集团、苏黎世保险在内的超过 11,000 家跨行业组织，以及 Flipkart、Humane、Kahoot、Miro、Typeface 等数字原生公司都在使用该服务。本季度每天新增近 100 家新客户。例如，梅赛德斯-奔驰正在通过 Azure OpenAI 将 ChatGPT 引入美国超过 90 万辆车，使其车载语音助手更加直观。而穆迪则建立了自己的内部副驾驶员，以提高其 14,000 名员工的生产力。
大型科技企业的领导地位。
We're also partnering broadly to scale this next generation of AI to more customers. Snowflake, for example, will increase its Azure spend as it builds new integrations with Azure OpenAI. And KPMG has announced a multibillion-dollar commitment to our cloud and AI services to transform professional services.
我们还在广泛合作，将这一代人工智能扩展到更多客户。例如，Snowflake 将增加其 Azure 开支，因为它正在与 Azure OpenAI 构建新的集成。而毕马威已宣布了一项数十亿美元的承诺，用于转变专业服务的云和人工智能服务。
Now on to data. Every AI app starts with data, and having a comprehensive data and analytics platform is more important than ever. Our intelligent data platform brings together operational databases, analytics and governance so organizations can spend more time creating value and less time integrating their data estate. We introduced Microsoft Fabric this quarter, which unifies compute storage and governance with a disruptive business model. One month in, we are encouraged by early interest in usage. Over 8,000 customers have signed up to trial the service and are actively using it, and over 50% are using 4 or more workloads. All-up, we once again took share with our analytics solutions with customers like Bridgestone, Chevron and Equinor turning to our stack.
现在开始谈数据。每个人工智能应用程序都始于数据，拥有全面的数据和分析平台比以往任何时候都更重要。我们的智能数据平台集成了运营数据库、分析和治理，使组织可以花更多时间创造价值，而不是整合他们的数据资产。本季度我们推出了微软 Fabric，它将计算存储和治理统一起来，采用了颠覆性的商业模式。一个月过去了，我们对早期使用的兴趣感到鼓舞。超过 8,000 名客户已经注册试用该服务，并积极使用，超过 50%的客户使用了 4 个或更多的工作负载。总的来说，我们再次在分析解决方案中获得了份额，像 Bridgestone、Chevron 和 Equinor 这样的客户转向了我们的技术堆栈。
Now on to developers. New Azure AI Studio is becoming the tool of choice for AI development in this new era, helping organizations ground, fine-tune, evaluate and deploy models, and do so responsibly. VS Code and GitHub Copilot are category-leading products when it comes to how developers code every day. Nearly 90% of GitHub Copilot sign-ups are self-service, indicating strong organic interest and pull-through. More than 27,000 organizations, up 2x quarter-over-quarter, have chosen GitHub Copilot for Business to increase the productivity of their developers, including Airbnb, Dell and Scandinavian Airlines.
现在转向开发人员。新的 Azure AI Studio 正在成为这个新时代 AI 开发的首选工具，帮助组织打好基础、微调、评估和部署模型，并且负责任地这样做。在开发人员每天编码方面，VS Code 和 GitHub Copilot 是领先的产品。近 90%的 GitHub Copilot 注册用户是自助服务，表明有强烈的有机兴趣和推动力。超过 27,000 家组织选择了 GitHub Copilot for Business，这是上一季度的两倍，以提高其开发人员的生产力，包括 Airbnb、戴尔和斯堪的纳维亚航空。
We're also applying AI across low-code, no-code tool chain to help domain experts automate workflows, create apps and web pages, build virtual agents, or analyze data using just natural language. Copilot in Power BI combines the power of large language models with an organization's data to generate insights faster, and Copilot in Power Pages makes it easier to create secure low-code business websites. One of our tools that's really taken off is Copilot in Power Virtual Agents, which is delivering one of the biggest benefits of this new area of AI, helping customer service agents be significantly more productive. HP and Virgin Money, for example, have both built custom chatbots with Copilot and Power Virtual Agents that were trained to answer complex customer inquiries. All-up, more than 63,000 organizations have used AI-powered capabilities in Power Platform, up 75% quarter-over-quarter.
我们还将人工智能应用于低代码、无代码工具链，帮助领域专家自动化工作流程，创建应用程序和网页，构建虚拟代理，或仅使用自然语言分析数据。Power BI 中的 Copilot 结合了大型语言模型的强大功能和组织的数据，可以更快地生成见解；Power Pages 中的 Copilot 则更容易创建安全的低代码业务网站。我们的一款工具 Copilot in Power Virtual Agents 受到了极大欢迎，它为这一新领域的人工智能带来了最大的好处之一，帮助客户服务代理人员显著提高生产力。例如，惠普和维珍金融都使用 Copilot 和 Power Virtual Agents 构建了定制的聊天机器人，这些机器人经过训练可以回答复杂的客户查询。总体而言，超过 63,000 家组织已经在 Power Platform 中使用了人工智能功能，同比增长了 75%。
Finally, Power Automate now has 10 million monthly active users at companies like Jaguar Land Rover, Repsol, Rolls-Royce, up 55% year-over-year. And we're going further with new process mining capabilities in Power Automate, which are helping organizations optimize business processes and, in turn, build their AI advantage.
最后，Power Automate 现在在捷豹路虎、Repsol、劳斯莱斯等公司拥有 1000 万月活跃用户，同比增长 55%。我们正在进一步推出 Power Automate 的新流程挖掘功能，帮助组织优化业务流程，从而建立他们的人工智能优势。
Now on to business applications. We are taking share in every category as we help organizations across the private and public sector from Avis to Albertsons to Breville to Equinox and the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs transform their mission-critical business processes. All-up, Dynamics surpassed $5 billion in revenue over the past fiscal year with our customer experience, service and finance and supply chain businesses all surpassing $1 billion in annual sales. This quarter, we brought Dynamics 365 Copilots to our ERP portfolio, including finance, project operations and supply management. And with our new Microsoft Sales Copilot, sellers can ground their customer interactions with data from CRM systems, including both Salesforce and Dynamics to personalize customer interactions and close more deals.
现在转向业务应用程序。在帮助私营和公共部门的组织（从 Avis 到 Albertsons 到 Breville 到 Equinox 和美国退伍军人事务部）转变其关键业务流程的过程中，我们在每个类别中都占有份额。总体而言，Dynamics 在过去的财政年度中的收入超过了 50 亿美元，我们的客户体验、服务、财务和供应链业务的年销售额均超过 10 亿美元。在本季度，我们将 Dynamics 365 Copilots 引入我们的 ERP 组合中，包括财务、项目运营和供应管理。通过我们的新 Microsoft Sales Copilot，销售人员可以利用 CRM 系统的数据（包括 Salesforce 和 Dynamics）来个性化客户互动并达成更多交易。
对比Salesforce，2023年销售收入314亿美元。
Now on to our industry and cross-industry clouds. Our Microsoft Cloud for Sustainability is helping customers like Costco, Land O'Lakes and REI take action to meet their environmental goals. And in health care, hundreds of organizations are using our Nuance DAX ambient intelligence solution to automatically document patient encounters at the point of care. This quarter, we expanded our collaboration with Epic to integrate Nuance DAX Express directly into their industry-leading EHR system.
现在让我们来谈谈我们的行业和跨行业云。我们的微软可持续云正在帮助像 Costco、Land O'Lakes 和 REI 这样的客户采取行动，以实现他们的环境目标。在医疗保健领域，数百家机构正在使用我们的 Nuance DAX 环境智能解决方案，在护理点自动记录患者接触情况。本季度，我们扩大了与 Epic 的合作，将 Nuance DAX Express 直接整合到他们领先的电子病历系统中。
Now on to future of work. Across industries, customers like Ahold Delhaize, Deutsche Bank, Novartis, Siemens, Wells Fargo are choosing Microsoft 365 premium offerings for differentiated security, compliance, voice and analytics value. And 4 months ago, we introduced a new pillar of customer value with Microsoft 365 Copilot. We are now rolling out Microsoft 365 Copilot to 600 paid customers through our early access program, and feedback from organizations like Emirates NBD, General Motors, Goodyear and Lumen is that it's a game changer for employee productivity.
现在让我们来谈谈未来的工作。在各行各业，像 Ahold Delhaize、德意志银行、诺华、西门子、富国银行等客户正在选择微软 365 高级产品，以获得差异化的安全性、合规性、语音和分析价值。而在 4 个月前，我们推出了一个新的客户价值支柱——微软 365 Copilot。我们现在正在通过早期访问计划向 600 名付费客户推出微软 365 Copilot，并来自阿联酋国民银行、通用汽车、固特异和路门等组织的反馈是，这对员工生产力来说是一个改变游戏规则的产品。
We continue to build momentum in Microsoft Teams across collaboration, chat, meetings and calling. We now have more than 1,900 apps in Teams app store. And companies in every industry, from British Airways, to Dentsu, to Eli Lilly and Manulife, have built over 145,000 custom line of business apps, bringing business process directly into the flow of work. Five months in, Teams Premium has already surpassed 600,000 seats as companies like BNY Mellon, Clifford Chance, PepsiCo and Starbucks chose the add-on for advanced features like end-to-end encryption and real-time translation.
我们在 Microsoft Teams 的协作、聊天、会议和通话方面继续努力。我们现在在 Teams 应用商店中拥有超过 1,900 个应用。来自各行各业的公司，从英国航空到电通，再到礼来和宏利，已经构建了超过 145,000 个定制的业务应用程序，将业务流程直接融入工作流程中。五个月过去了，Teams 高级版的座位数量已经超过了 600,000 个，像 BNY Mellon、Clifford Chance、百事可乐和星巴克这样的公司选择了这个附加功能，如端到端加密和实时翻译。
Teams Phone is the market leader in cloud calling with more than 17 million PSTN users, up 45% year-over-year. Teams Room is used by more than 70% of the Fortune 500, including L'Oreal, United Airlines and U.S. Bank, and revenue more than doubled year-over-year this quarter. And with Microsoft Viva, we are creating a new market category for employee experience. Viva now has 35 million monthly active users as companies like CBRE, Fujitsu and Unisys turn to the platform to build data-driven, high-performance organizations.
Teams Phone 是云呼叫市场的领导者，拥有超过 1700 万 PSTN 用户，同比增长 45%。Teams Room 被包括欧莱雅、联合航空和美国银行在内的财富 500 强中的超过 70%使用，本季度收入同比增长超过一倍。而通过 Microsoft Viva，我们正在为员工体验创造一个新的市场类别。Viva 现在拥有 3500 万月活跃用户，像 CBRE、富士通和联合科技这样的公司正在转向该平台构建数据驱动、高性能的组织。
Salesforce原来在微软不关注的地方弄点业务，现在微软重新关注这些业务，Salesforce看着很难有竞争上的优势。
Now on to Windows. The number of devices running Windows 11 has more than doubled in the last year, and we are seeing continued growth in Windows 11 commercial deployments worldwide by companies like AT&T, Krones and Westpac. We are also transforming how Windows is experienced and managed for enterprise customers with Azure Virtual Desktop and Windows 365, which together surpassed $1 billion in revenue for the first time over the past 12 months. Enbridge, Eurowings, Marriott International and TD Bank Group, for example, all chose cloud-delivered Windows this quarter.
现在转向 Windows。过去一年中运行 Windows 11 的设备数量已经翻了一番，我们看到像 AT&T、Krones 和 Westpac 这样的公司在全球范围内持续推动 Windows 11 的商业部署。我们还通过 Azure 虚拟桌面和 Windows 365 改变了企业客户体验和管理 Windows 的方式，这两者在过去 12 个月中首次实现了超过 10 亿美元的收入。例如，Enbridge、Eurowings、万豪国际和 TD 银行集团等公司本季度都选择了基于云的 Windows。
Windows 11 is also rapidly becoming a powerful new canvas in this new era of AI. We introduced Windows Copilot this quarter, helping every Windows 11 user become a power user with just natural language and are excited to put it in the hands of more people in the coming months.
Windows 11 也在这个人工智能新时代迅速成为一个强大的新画布。我们在本季度推出了 Windows Copilot，帮助每位 Windows 11 用户只需用自然语言就能成为高级用户，并且很高兴在未来几个月将其交到更多人手中。
Now on to security. More than 1 million organizations now count on our comprehensive AI-powered solutions to protect their digital estate across cloud and endpoint platforms, up 26% year-over-year. More than 60% including leading enterprises like ABN AMRO, Dow and Heineken use 4 or more of our security products, up 33% year-over-year, underscoring our end-to-end differentiation. And we once again took share across all major categories we serve as we innovate to protect customers.
现在转向安全。现在有超过 100 万家组织依靠我们全面的人工智能解决方案来保护他们的数字资产，跨云和端点平台，同比增长 26%。超过 60%的企业，包括 ABN AMRO、陶氏化学和喜力等领先企业，使用我们的 4 个或更多安全产品，同比增长 33%，突显了我们的端到端差异化。我们再次在所有主要服务类别中获得份额，创新保护客户。
In identity, Microsoft Entra ID has more than 610 million monthly active users, and we are adding SSE to our Entra product family to complement our leading identity solution and secure access to any app or resource from anywhere. Finally, our Security Copilot, the first product to apply this next generation of AI to SecOps will be available to customers via paid early access program this fall.
在身份方面，Microsoft Entra ID 拥有超过 6.1 亿月活跃用户，我们正在将 SSE 添加到我们的 Entra 产品系列中，以补充我们领先的身份解决方案，并安全访问任何应用程序或资源。最后，我们的安全副驾驶，第一个将下一代 AI 应用于 SecOps 的产品，将通过付费早期访问计划于今年秋季向客户提供。
Now on to LinkedIn. LinkedIn's revenue surpassed $15 billion for the first time this fiscal year, and membership growth has now accelerated for 8 quarters in a row, a testament to how mission-critical the platform has become to help more than 950 million members connect, learn, sell and get hired. Our Talent Solutions business surpassed $7 billion in revenue for the first time over the past 12 months, and our hiring business took share for the fourth consecutive quarter.
现在转向 LinkedIn。 LinkedIn 的收入今年首次超过 150 亿美元，会员增长连续 8 个季度加速，这证明了该平台已经变得至关重要，帮助超过 9.5 亿会员连接、学习、销售和招聘。我们的人才解决方案业务在过去 12 个月首次超过 70 亿美元的收入，我们的招聘业务连续第四个季度占据份额。
We continue to use AI to help our members and customers connect to opportunities and tap into experiences of experts on the platform. Our AI-powered collaborative articles are now the fastest-growing traffic driver in LinkedIn. And finally, we are helping LinkedIn stay trusted and authentic. More than 7 million members have verified who they are or where they work, many using new integrations with Microsoft Entra as well as CLEAR and Hyperverge.
我们继续利用人工智能帮助我们的会员和客户连接机会，并利用平台上专家的经验。我们基于人工智能的协作文章现在是领英中增长最快的流量驱动器。最后，我们正在帮助领英保持可信和真实。超过 700 万会员已经验证了他们是谁或在哪里工作，其中许多使用了与 Microsoft Entra 以及 CLEAR 和 Hyperverge 的新集成。
Now on to search, advertising and news. While it's early in our journey, we are reshaping daily search and web habits with our Copilot for the web. This quarter, we introduced new AI-powered features, including multimodal capabilities with visual search and Bing Chat. We are expanding to businesses with Bing Chat Enterprise, which offers commercial data protection, providing an easy on-ramp for any organization looking to get the benefit of this next generation of AI today. Bing is also the default search experience for OpenAI's ChatGPT, bringing timelier answers with links to our reputable sources to ChatGPT users.
现在开始搜索、广告和新闻。虽然我们的旅程还处于早期阶段，但我们正在通过我们的网络助手 Copilot 改变日常搜索和网络习惯。在本季度，我们推出了新的人工智能功能，包括具有视觉搜索和必应聊天功能的多模态功能。我们正在向企业推广必应聊天企业版，提供商业数据保护，为任何希望从今天开始获得这一新一代人工智能好处的组织提供便捷的入口。必应还是 OpenAI 的 ChatGPT 的默认搜索体验，为 ChatGPT 用户提供更及时的答案，并提供指向我们可靠来源的链接。
To date, Bing users have engaged in more than 1 billion chats and created more than 750 million images with Bing Image Creator, and Microsoft Edge took share for the ninth consecutive quarter. More broadly, we are growing our ad network, which is now available in 187 markets spanning search, display, native, retail, media, video and connected TV.
截至目前，必应用户已进行了超过 10 亿次聊天，并使用必应图像创建器创建了超过 7.5 亿张图片，微软 Edge 连续第九个季度占据份额。更广泛地说，我们正在扩大广告网络，目前在 187 个市场提供搜索、展示、原生、零售、媒体、视频和连接电视等服务。
Now on to gaming. Last week, we extended our Activision Blizzard merger agreement deadline to October. We continue to work through the regulatory approval process and remain confident about getting the deal done. We are committed to bringing more games to more players everywhere. Great content is key to our approach, and our pipeline has never been stronger. We announced our most ambitious lineup of games ever at our showcase last month, including 21 titles that will be available via Xbox Game Pass. And we're looking forward to the release of Starfield this fall, Bethesda's first new universe in 25 years.
现在让我们谈谈游戏。上周，我们将 Activision Blizzard 的合并协议截止日期延长至十月。我们继续努力通过监管批准流程，并对完成交易感到自信。我们致力于将更多游戏带给更多玩家。出色的内容是我们的关键，我们的产品线从未如此强大。上个月在我们的展示会上，我们宣布了有史以来最雄心勃勃的游戏阵容，其中包括 21 款将通过 Xbox Game Pass 提供的游戏。我们期待着今年秋季发布《星野》（Starfield），这是 Bethesda 25 年来推出的第一个全新宇宙。
All-up, we set new fourth quarter highs for monthly active users, driven by strength off-console, as well as monthly active devices. And we saw record fourth quarter engagement across Game Pass, with hours played up 22% year-over-year. And just last week, we announced Game Pass Core, bringing together online play from Xbox Live and content from Game Pass into a single offering.
总体而言，我们为每月活跃用户创下了新的第四季度高点，这得益于离开主机的实力，以及每月活跃设备。我们看到了 Game Pass 在第四季度创下了创纪录的参与度，游戏时间比去年同期增长了 22%。就在上周，我们宣布了 Game Pass Core，将 Xbox Live 的在线游戏和 Game Pass 的内容合并为一个单一的服务。
In closing, I'm energized about the opportunities ahead. We continue to innovate across the tech stack to help our customers thrive in the new era of AI.
在结束时，我对未来的机遇感到充满活力。我们继续在技术堆栈上进行创新，帮助我们的客户在人工智能新时代蓬勃发展。
And with that, let me turn it over to Amy.
让我把话题转给艾米。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon, everyone. This quarter, revenue was $56.2 billion, up 8% and 10% in constant currency. Earnings per share was $2.69 and increased 21% and 23% in constant currency. In our largest quarter of the year, results exceeded expectations with focused execution by our sales and partner teams. These execution efforts led to share gains again this quarter in Azure, Dynamics, Security and Edge.
谢谢，萨蒂亚，大家下午好。本季度，收入为 562 亿美元，按恒定汇率计算增长了 8%和 10%。每股收益为 2.69 美元，按恒定汇率计算增长了 21%和 23%。在我们一年中最大的季度中，由于销售和合作伙伴团队的专注执行，结果超出了预期。这些执行努力再次导致 Azure、Dynamics、安全和 Edge 在本季度的份额增长。
In our commercial business, we continued to see healthy renewal strength, which includes our upsell and attach motions, particularly with Microsoft 365 E5. Growth of new business continued to be moderated for products sold outside the Microsoft 365 suite, including stand-alone Office 365, EMS and Windows Commercial products. As expected in Azure, we saw a continuation of the optimization and new workload trends from the prior quarter.
在我们的商业业务中，我们继续看到健康的续约实力，其中包括我们的升级和附加动作，特别是与 Microsoft 365 E5。新业务的增长继续受到调节，这些产品在 Microsoft 365 套件之外销售，包括独立的 Office 365、EMS 和 Windows 商业产品。在 Azure 方面，我们看到了前一个季度的优化和新工作负载趋势的延续。
In our consumer business, the PC market overall was in line with expectations, although the early timing of back-to-school inventory builds benefited Windows OEM. Advertising spend was slightly lower than anticipated, which impacted search and news advertising and LinkedIn Marketing Solutions. Commercial bookings decreased 2% and 1% in constant currency, in line with expectations against the prior year comparable that was our largest commercial bookings quarter ever. In addition to the healthy execution across our renewal sales motions mentioned earlier, we saw a record number of $10 million-plus contracts for both Azure and Microsoft 365.
在我们的消费者业务中，PC 市场整体符合预期，尽管开学季库存建设提前，使 Windows OEM 受益。广告支出略低于预期，影响了搜索和新闻广告以及领英营销解决方案。商业预订按恒定货币计算下降了 2%和 1%，符合对去年同期最大商业预订季度的预期。除了前面提到的续约销售动作的良好执行外，我们还看到 Azure 和 Microsoft 365 的 1000 万美元以上合同数量创下纪录。
And the average annualized value for our large, long-term Azure contracts was the highest it's ever been, driven by customer demand for our innovative cloud solutions today as well as interest in AI opportunities ahead. Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 19% and 18% in constant currency to $224 billion. Roughly 45% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 13% year-over-year. The remaining portion, which we recognized beyond the next 12 months, increased 22%. And this quarter, our annuity mix increased to 97%. FX impact on total company revenue, segment level revenue and operating expense growth was as expected. FX decreased COGS growth by 1 point, 1 point favorable to expectations.
我们大型、长期 Azure 合同的平均年化价值创历史新高，受客户对我们创新云解决方案的需求以及对未来人工智能机会的兴趣推动。商业剩余履约义务按恒定货币计增长 19%和 18%，达到 2240 亿美元。大约 45%将在未来 12 个月内确认为收入，同比增长 13%。我们超过未来 12 个月确认的剩余部分增长了 22%。本季度，我们的年金组合比例增至 97%。外汇对整体公司收入、分部门收入和运营费用增长的影响符合预期。外汇使成本增长减少 1 个百分点，符合预期。
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $30.3 billion and grew 21% and 23% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage increased roughly 3 points year-over-year to 72%, also slightly ahead of expectations. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate for useful lives, Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage increased slightly, driven by improvements in Office 365, partially offset by lower Azure margin and the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure to meet growing demand.
微软云收入为 303 亿美元，按恒定货币计算增长了 21%和 23%，略高于预期。微软云毛利率百分比同比增长约 3 个百分点至 72%，也略高于预期。除了有用寿命会计估计变更的影响外，微软云毛利率百分比略有增加，受到 Office 365 改进的推动，部分抵消了较低的 Azure 利润率以及扩展 AI 基础设施以满足增长需求的影响。
Company gross margin dollars increased 11% and 13% in constant currency, including 2 points due to the change in accounting estimate. Gross margin percentage increased year-over-year to 70%. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage increased slightly, driven by improvements in Office 365. Operating expense increased 2%, in line with expectations as savings across the company from our focus on prioritization and efficiency were offset by the charge related to the Irish Data Protection Commission matter. At a total company level, headcount at the end of June was flat compared to a year ago.
公司毛利润美元增长了 11％和 13％，在恒定货币条件下增长，其中 2 个百分点是由于会计估计变更。毛利率年度增长至 70％。除去会计估计变更的影响，毛利率略有增加，受到 Office 365 改进的推动。营业费用增加了 2％，符合预期，因为公司在优先事项和效率方面的节省被爱尔兰数据保护委员会事务相关费用抵消。截至 6 月底，公司总体层面的员工人数与一年前持平。
Operating income increased 18% and 21% in constant currency, including 4 points due to the change in accounting estimate. Operating margins increased roughly 4 points year-over-year to 43%. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, operating margins increased roughly 2 points, driven by improved operating leverage through disciplined cost management.
营业收入按恒定汇率增长了 18%和 21%，其中 4 个百分点是由于会计估计变更所致。营业利润率同比增长约 4 个百分点至 43%。不考虑会计估计变更的影响，营业利润率增长约 2 个百分点，这是通过严格的成本管理实现的运营杠杆效应改善所推动的。
Now to our segment results. Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $18.3 billion and grew 10% and 12% in constant currency, ahead of expectations with better-than-expected results in Office Commercial, partially offset by LinkedIn. Office Commercial revenue grew 12% and 14% in constant currency. Office 365 Commercial revenue increased 15% and 17% in constant currency, a bit better than expected with particular strength in E5 upsell renewal noted earlier. Paid Office 365 Commercial seats grew 11% year-over-year with installed base expansion across all workloads and customer segments.
现在到我们的分段结果。生产力和业务流程的收入为 183 亿美元，按恒定货币计算增长了 10%和 12%，超出预期，办公商业表现优于预期，部分抵消了领英的影响。办公商业收入按恒定货币计算增长了 12%和 14%。Office 365 商业收入按恒定货币计算增长了 15%和 17%，略高于预期，特别是在 E5 升级续订方面表现强劲。付费 Office 365 商业用户数量同比增长了 11%，安装基数在所有工作负载和客户细分市场都有扩张。
Seat growth was again driven by our small and medium business and frontline worker offerings. Office Commercial licensing declined 20% and 18% in constant currency with better-than-expected transactional purchasing. Office Consumer revenue increased 3% and 6% in constant currency with continued momentum in Microsoft 365 subscriptions, which grew 12% to $67 million.
座位增长再次受到我们的中小企业和一线员工产品的推动。办公商业许可证以恒定货币计算下降了 20%和 18%，交易购买超出预期。办公消费者收入以恒定货币计算增长了 3%和 6%，Microsoft 365 订阅继续增长，增长了 12%，达到 6700 万美元。
LinkedIn revenue increased 5% and 7% in constant currency, driven by growth in Talent Solutions, with some continued bookings impact from the weaker hiring environment in key verticals. Growth was partially offset by a decline in Marketing Solutions due to the lower ad spend noted earlier. Dynamics revenue grew 19% and 21% in constant currency, driven by Dynamics 365, which grew 26% and 28% in constant currency, with continued healthy growth across all workloads. Segment gross margin dollars increased 14% and 16% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased roughly 3 points year-over-year. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage increased roughly 1 point, driven by improvements in Office 365. Operating expenses decreased slightly and operating income increased 25% and 29% in constant currency, including 3 points due to the change in accounting estimate.
领英的收入在恒定货币下增长了 5%和 7%，主要受人才解决方案增长的推动，但在关键垂直领域的招聘环境疲弱继续影响了一些预订。增长在一定程度上被市场解决方案的下降抵消，这是由于前述广告支出较低所致。动态收入在恒定货币下增长了 19%和 21%，主要受 Dynamics 365 的推动，后者在恒定货币下增长了 26%和 28%，并在所有工作负载中持续健康增长。部门毛利润增加了 14%和 16%，毛利率大致增加了 3 个百分点，同比增长。除了会计估计变更的影响外，毛利率大致增加了 1 个百分点，这是由于 Office 365 的改进所致。运营费用略有下降，运营收入在恒定货币下增长了 25%和 29%，其中 3 个百分点是由于会计估计变更。
Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $24 billion, increasing 15% and 17% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations. Overall, server products and cloud services revenue increased 17% and 18% in constant currency. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 26% and 27% in constant currency, including roughly 1 point from AI services, as expected.
接下来是智能云业务板块。收入为 240 亿美元，按不变货币计算增长 15%和 17%，略高于预期。总体而言，服务器产品和云服务收入按不变货币计算增长了 17%和 18%。Azure 和其他云服务收入按不变货币计算增长了 26%和 27%，其中大约有 1 个百分点来自 AI 服务，符合预期。
In our per user business, the Enterprise Mobility and Security installed base grew 11% to over 256 million seats, with impact from the continued growth trends in new business noted earlier. In our on-premises server business, revenue decreased 1% and was relatively unchanged in constant currency, driven by a slight decrease in new annuity contracts, which carry higher in-period revenue recognition. Enterprise Services revenue grew 4% and 5% in constant currency with better-than-expected performance across enterprise support services and industry solutions.
在我们的每位用户业务中，企业移动性和安全性的安装基础增长了 11%，达到超过 2.56 亿个席位，受早前新业务持续增长趋势的影响。在我们的本地服务器业务中，收入下降了 1%，在恒定货币下基本保持不变，这是由于新的年金合同略微减少，这些合同具有更高的当期收入确认。企业服务收入在恒定货币下增长了 4%和 5%，在企业支持服务和行业解决方案的表现超出预期。
Segment gross margin dollars increased 16% and 17% in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased slightly. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage declined roughly 2 points, driven by sales mix shift to Azure and the lower Azure margin noted earlier. Operating expenses increased 10%. Operating income grew 20% and 22% in constant currency, with roughly 6 points from the change in accounting estimate.
分部毛利润增加了 16%和 17%，在恒定货币条件下，毛利率略微增加。不考虑会计估计变更的影响，毛利率下降了大约 2 个百分点，主要是由于销售组合向 Azure 转移和前面提到的较低的 Azure 毛利率。运营费用增加了 10%。在恒定货币条件下，运营收入增长了 20%和 22%，其中大约有 6 个百分点来自会计估计变更。
Now to More Personal Computing. Revenue was $13.9 billion, decreasing 4% and 3% in constant currency, above expectations, driven by better-than-expected performance in Windows, partially offset by Gaming. Windows OEM revenue decreased 12% year-over-year, ahead of expectations due to 7 points of benefit from early back-to-school inventory builds, while the overall PC market was as expected. Devices revenue decreased 20% and 18% in constant currency, roughly in line with expectations.
现在转向更个人化的计算。收入为 139 亿美元，按恒定货币计算下降 4％和 3％，高于预期，这是由于 Windows 的表现超出预期，部分抵消了游戏的影响。由于提前进行了 7 个学年初备货，Windows OEM 收入同比下降 12％，超出预期，而整体 PC 市场符合预期。设备收入按恒定货币计算下降 20％和 18％，基本符合预期。
Windows commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 2% and 3% in constant currency, ahead of expectations, due to the renewal strength noted earlier, even with the moderated growth of new business and stand-alone offerings. Search and news advertising revenue ex TAC increased 8%, a bit behind expectations due to lower ad spend noted earlier. Higher search volumes, share gains again this quarter for our Edge browser, and the benefit from the Xandr acquisition were partially offset by the impact from third-party partnerships.
Windows 商业产品和云服务收入按恒定货币计算增长了 2%和 3%，超出预期，这主要归功于早前提到的续订实力，即使新业务和独立产品的增长有所放缓。搜索和新闻广告收入减去 TAC 后增长了 8%，略低于预期，这是由于早前提到的广告支出较低。较高的搜索量，本季度我们 Edge 浏览器的份额再次增长，以及 Xandr 收购带来的好处部分抵消了第三方合作伙伴的影响。
And in Gaming, revenue increased 1% and 2% in constant currency, lower than expected due to weakness in first-party and third-party content performance. Xbox content and services revenue increased 5% and 6% in constant currency and Xbox hardware revenue declined 13%. Segment gross margin dollars declined 2% and were relatively unchanged in constant currency, and gross margin percentage increased roughly 1 point year-over-year, driven by sales mix shift to higher-margin businesses. Operating expenses declined 9% and 8% in constant currency. Operating income increased 4% and 6% in constant currency.
在游戏方面，收入按恒定货币计算增长了 1%和 2%，低于预期，这是由于第一方和第三方内容表现疲弱所致。Xbox 内容和服务收入按恒定货币计算增长了 5%和 6%，Xbox 硬件收入下降了 13%。部门毛利润下降了 2%，按恒定货币计算基本保持不变，毛利润百分比年度增长约 1 个百分点，这是由于销售组合向更高毛利润业务的转变所推动。运营费用按恒定货币计算下降了 9%和 8%。运营收入按恒定货币计算增长了 4%和 6%。
Now back to total company results. Capital expenditures, including finance leases, were $10.7 billion to support cloud demand, including investments in AI infrastructure. Cash paid for PP&E was $8.9 billion. Cash flow from operations was $28.8 billion, up 17% year-over-year as strong cloud billings and collections were partially offset by a tax payment related to the R&D capitalization provision. Free cash flow was $19.8 billion, up 12% year-over-year. Excluding the impact of this tax payment, cash flow from operations increased 22% and free cash flow increased 19%. This quarter, other income and expense was $473 million, higher than anticipated, driven by net gains on foreign currency remeasurement. Our effective tax rate was approximately 19%. And finally, we returned $9.7 billion to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, bringing our total cash returned to our shareholders to over $38 billion for the full fiscal year.
现在回到整体公司业绩。资本支出，包括融资租赁，为支持云需求而达到 107 亿美元，包括对人工智能基础设施的投资。用于购买固定资产和设备的现金为 89 亿美元。运营现金流为 288 亿美元，同比增长 17%，强劲的云计费和收款部分抵消了与研发资本化规定相关的税款支付。自由现金流为 198 亿美元，同比增长 12%。除去这笔税款支付的影响，运营现金流增长 22%，自由现金流增长 19%。本季度，其他收入和支出为 4.73 亿美元，高于预期，主要受外币重新计量净收益的推动。我们的有效税率约为 19%。最后，我们通过股票回购和股息向股东返还 97 亿美元，使我们全财年向股东返还的总现金超过 380 亿美元。
Now let's turn to next fiscal year and start with a few reminders. First, the change in accounting estimate for the useful life of server and network equipment resulted in $3.7 billion of depreciation expense shifting from FY '23 to future periods. Our FY '23 operating income and margins benefited from this change in accounting estimate and that will be a headwind to growth in FY '24 as the benefit reduces to $2.1 billion.
现在让我们转向下一个财政年度，并从一些提醒开始。首先，服务器和网络设备使用寿命的会计估计变更导致 37 亿美元的折旧费用从 FY '23 转移到未来时期。我们 FY '23 的营业收入和利润率受益于这一会计估计变更，这将成为 FY '24 增长的阻力，因为受益减少到 21 亿美元。
Next, my outlook commentary for both the full year and next quarter is on a U.S. dollar basis unless specifically noted otherwise. And my outlook does not include any impact from the Activision acquisition, which we continue to work towards closing, subject to obtaining required regulatory approvals.
接下来，我对整个年度和下个季度的展望评论是以美元为基础，除非另有特别说明。我的展望不包括 Activision 收购所带来的任何影响，我们将继续努力完成这项交易，前提是获得必要的监管批准。
Now for some thoughts on the full year of FY '24. With the weaker U.S. dollar and assuming current rates remain stable, we expect FX to increase full year revenue growth by approximately 1 point with no impact to COGS or operating expense growth. The impact in H1 is expected to be greater than H2. At a total company level, revenue growth from our Commercial business will continue to be driven by the Microsoft Cloud and will again outpace the growth from our Consumer business. Even with strong demand and a leadership position, growth from our AI services will be gradual as Azure AI scales and our copilots reach general availability dates. So for FY '24, the impact will be weighted towards H2.
现在谈一下 FY '24 整个财政年度的一些想法。考虑到美元疲软，假设当前汇率保持稳定，我们预计外汇将使全年收入增长大约增加 1 个百分点，对成本商品销售费用或运营费用增长没有影响。上半年的影响预计将大于下半年。在整个公司层面上，我们商业业务的收入增长将继续受到微软云的推动，并将再次超过我们消费者业务的增长。即使需求强劲且处于领先地位，我们的人工智能服务的增长也将是逐渐的，因为 Azure AI 扩展和我们的副驾驶员达到普及日期。因此，在 FY '24，影响将更加倾向于下半年。
To support our Microsoft Cloud growth and demand for our AI platform, we will accelerate investment in our cloud infrastructure. We expect capital expenditures to increase sequentially each quarter through the year as we scale to meet demand signals. We are committed to driving operating leverage, and therefore, we will manage our total cost growth across COGS and operating expense in line with the demand signals we see as well as revenue growth. Increased capital spend will drive higher COGS growth than in FY '23, and FY '24 operating expense growth will remain low as we prioritize our spend. Therefore, we expect full year operating margins to remain flat year-over-year, even with the headwind from the change in accounting estimate. And finally, we expect our FY '24 tax rate to be around 19%.
为了支持我们的微软云增长和对我们人工智能平台的需求，我们将加快对云基础设施的投资。我们预计资本支出将随着我们扩大规模以满足需求信号而逐季递增。我们致力于推动运营杠杆，因此，我们将根据我们看到的需求信号以及收入增长来管理成本增长。增加的资本支出将带动比 FY '23 更高的 COGS 增长，而 FY '24 的运营费用增长将保持较低，因为我们优先考虑我们的支出。因此，我们预计全年运营利润率将与去年持平，即使受到会计估计变更的阻力。最后，我们预计我们的 FY '24 税率将约为 19%。
Now to the outlook for the first quarter. First, FX. Based on current rates, we expect FX to increase total revenue and operating expense growth by approximately 1 point with no impact to COGS growth. Within the segments, we expect FX to increase revenue growth in Intelligent Cloud by 1 point with no impact to Productivity and Business Processes or More Personal Computing. In Commercial bookings, strong execution across our core annuity sales motions, including our renewal and upsell motions, along with long-term measure commitments should drive healthy growth on a growing expiry base.
现在展望第一季度。首先，外汇。根据当前汇率，我们预计外汇将使总收入和运营费用增长大约 1 个百分点，对成本增长没有影响。在各个业务板块中，我们预计外汇将使智能云的收入增长增加 1 个百分点，对生产力与业务流程或更个人计算没有影响。在商业预订方面，我们核心年金销售动作，包括续约和升级动作的强劲执行，以及长期措施承诺，应该推动在不断增长的到期基础上健康增长。
Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should decrease roughly 1 point year-over-year, driven by the accounting estimate change headwind noted earlier. Excluding that impact, Q1 cloud gross margin percentage will be up roughly 1 point, primarily driven by improvements in Azure and Office 365, partially offset by sales mix shift to Azure and the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure to meet growing demand. We expect capital expenditures to increase sequentially on a dollar basis, as noted earlier, driven by investments in our AI infrastructure. Reminder, there can be normal quarterly spend variability in the timing of cloud infrastructure build-out.
微软云的毛利率百分比应该年度下降大约 1 个百分点，这是由之前提到的会计估计变更阻力所驱动的。除去这种影响，Q1 云毛利率百分比将大约提高 1 个百分点，主要受 Azure 和 Office 365 的改善推动，部分抵消了销售组合向 Azure 转变和扩大我们的人工智能基础设施以满足增长需求的影响。我们预计资本支出将按美元基础逐季度增加，正如之前提到的，这是由对我们人工智能基础设施的投资所驱动的。提醒一下，在云基础设施建设的时间上可能会有正常的季度性支出变动。
Next to segment guidance. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue to grow between 9% and 11% or USD 18 billion to USD 18.3 billion. In Office Commercial, revenue growth will again be driven by Office 365 with seat growth across customer segments and ARPU growth through E5. We expect Office 365 revenue growth to be roughly 16% in constant currency. In our on-premises business, we expect revenue to decline in the low 20s. In Office Consumer, we expect revenue growth to be in the low to mid-single digits, driven by Microsoft 365 subscriptions.
在产品 ivity 和业务流程中，我们预计收入将在 9%至 11%之间增长，或为 180 亿美元至 183 亿美元。在 Office 商业中，收入增长将再次由 Office 365 推动，客户细分市场的座位增长和通过 E5 的 ARPU 增长。我们预计 Office 365 的收入增长在恒定货币中大约为 16%。在我们的本地业务中，我们预计收入将下降 20%左右。在 Office Consumer 中，我们预计收入增长将在低到中个位数，由 Microsoft 365 订阅推动。
For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits. Even with share gains in our hiring business, growth will continue to be impacted by the overall markets for recruiting and advertising, especially in the technology industry, where we have significant exposure. And in Dynamics, we expect revenue growth in the mid- to high teens, driven by continued growth in Dynamics 365. For Intelligent Cloud, we expect revenue to grow between 15% and 16%, or 14% and 15% in constant currency. Revenue should be USD 23.3 billion to USD 23.6 billion. Revenue will continue to be driven by Azure, which, as a reminder, can have quarterly variability primarily from our per user business and from in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts.
对于领英，我们预计收入增长在低至中个位数。即使在我们的招聘业务中获得份额增长，增长仍将受到整体招聘和广告市场的影响，尤其是在技术行业，我们在其中有重大曝光。在动态方面，我们预计收入增长在中至高十几岁，受动态 365 持续增长推动。对于智能云，我们预计收入增长在 15%至 16%，或者在恒定货币下为 14%至 15%。收入应为 233 亿美元至 236 亿美元。收入将继续受到 Azure 的推动，提醒一下，Azure 的季度变化主要来自我们的每用户业务和根据合同组合的收入确认。
In Azure, we expect revenue growth to be 25% to 26% in constant currency, including roughly 2 points from all Azure AI Services. Growth continues to be driven by our Azure consumption business, and we expect the trends from Q4 to continue into Q1. Our per user business should continue to benefit from Microsoft 365 suite momentum, though we expect continued moderation in growth rates, given the size of the installed base. In our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline low to mid-single digits against a prior comparable that benefited from annuity purchasing ahead of the SQL Server 2022 launch.
在 Azure 中，我们预计收入增长将在恒定货币中达到 25%至 26%，其中大约有 2 个百分点来自所有 Azure AI 服务。增长继续受到 Azure 消费业务的推动，我们预计 Q4 的趋势将延续到 Q1。我们的每用户业务应继续受益于 Microsoft 365 套件的势头，尽管考虑到已安装基础的规模，我们预计增长率将继续适度放缓。在我们的本地服务器业务中，我们预计收入将与之前受益于 SQL Server 2022 发布前的年金购买的可比基数相比，下降低至中等个位数。
And in Enterprise Services, revenue should decline low to mid-single digits year-over-year as growth in Enterprise Support Services will be more than offset by a decline in Industry Solutions. In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue of USD 12.5 billion to USD 12.9 billion. Windows OEM revenue should decline low to mid-teens, including 5 points of negative impact from the earlier back-to-school inventory builds that were pulled into the fourth quarter. Our guide assumes no significant changes to the PC demand environment. In devices, revenue should decline in the mid-30s due to the overall PC market and adjustments we made in our portfolio with an increased focus on our higher-margin premium products. In Windows commercial products and cloud services, customer demand for Microsoft 365 and our advanced security solutions should drive revenue growth in the mid- to high single digits.
在企业服务方面，收入应该同比下降低至中个位数，因为企业支持服务的增长将被行业解决方案的下降所抵消。在更个人化的计算方面，我们预计收入为 125 亿美元至 129 亿美元。Windows OEM 收入应该下降低至中个位数，其中包括从之前的返校季库存建设中拉入第四季度的负面影响 5 个百分点。我们的指导假设 PC 需求环境没有重大变化。在设备方面，由于整体 PC 市场和我们在组合中所做的调整，收入应该下降 30%左右，重点放在我们利润较高的高端产品上。在 Windows 商业产品和云服务方面，客户对 Microsoft 365 和我们先进的安全解决方案的需求应该推动收入同比增长中至高个位数。
Search and news advertising ex TAC revenue growth should be mid- to high single digits, roughly 5 points higher than overall search and news advertising revenue, driven by continued volume strength supported by Edge browser share gains. Growth will continue to be impacted by the advertising spend environment and third-party partnerships mentioned earlier. We continue to be excited by Bing usage signals and the longer-term opportunity as we invest in AI.
搜索和新闻广告外 TAC 收入增长应该是中高个位数，大约比整体搜索和新闻广告收入高 5 个百分点，这是由持续的量实力支持的，受 Edge 浏览器份额增长的推动。增长将继续受到广告支出环境和之前提到的第三方合作伙伴的影响。我们对 Bing 使用信号和我们在人工智能方面的投资所带来的长期机会感到兴奋。
And in Gaming, we expect revenue growth in the mid-single digits. We expect Xbox content and services revenue growth in the mid- to high single digits, driven by first-party and third-party content as well as Xbox Game Pass.
在游戏方面，我们预计收入增长在中等个位数。我们预计 Xbox 内容和服务收入增长在中等到高个位数，受第一方和第三方内容以及 Xbox Game Pass 的推动。
Now back to company guidance. We expect COGS between USD 16.6 billion to USD 16.8 billion and operating expense of USD 13.5 billion to USD 13.6 billion. Together, total cost growth should be around 6%. Other income and expense should be roughly $300 million as interest income is expected to more than offset interest expense. Two reminders. This does not include any impact from Activision on interest income and expense, and we are required to recognize mark-to-market gains or losses on our equity portfolio, which can increase quarterly volatility. We expect our Q1 effective tax rate to be around 19%. And finally, as a reminder for Q1 cash flow, we expect to make a $2.7 billion cash tax payment related to the TCJA transition tax. We do not expect payment related to the R&D capitalization provision in Q1.
现在回到公司指导方针。我们预计成本费用在 166 亿美元至 168 亿美元之间，运营费用在 135 亿美元至 136 亿美元之间。总成本增长应该约为 6%。其他收入和支出应该大约为 3 亿美元，因为预计利息收入将大于利息支出。两个提醒。这不包括 Activision 对利息收入和支出的任何影响，我们必须承认我们的股权投资组合的按市值计算的收益或损失，这可能会增加季度波动性。我们预计我们的 Q1 有效税率约为 19%。最后，关于 Q1 现金流的提醒，我们预计将支付 27 亿美元的现金税款，涉及 TCJA 过渡税。我们不预计在 Q1 支付与研发资本化规定有关的款项。
In closing, as a company, we delivered on the FY '23 financial commitments we discussed a year ago on revenue and operating margin. A focus on operational excellence allowed us to achieve these targets while we delivered near-term value to customers and prioritized our investments to continue to lead in the future. As we start FY '24, we are excited for the opportunities ahead and remain focused on delivering the 3 key priorities Satya mentioned.
在结束时，作为一家公司，我们兑现了一年前讨论的关于收入和运营利润的 FY '23 财务承诺。专注于运营卓越使我们能够实现这些目标，同时为客户提供近期价值，并优先考虑我们的投资以继续引领未来。随着我们开始 FY '24，我们对未来的机遇感到兴奋，并专注于实现萨蒂亚提到的三个关键优先事项。
We'll maintain our lead as the top commercial cloud by helping customers use the breadth and depth of the Microsoft Cloud. We'll continue to invest in our cloud and AI infrastructure while scaling with growing demand so we can lead the AI platform wave. And finally, we'll align our costs with growth as we are committed to driving operating leverage.
我们将通过帮助客户充分利用微软云的广度和深度，保持作为顶尖商业云的领先地位。我们将继续投资于我们的云和人工智能基础设施，同时随着不断增长的需求扩展规模，以引领人工智能平台浪潮。最后，我们将使成本与增长保持一致，因为我们致力于推动运营杠杆。
With that, let's go to Q&A, Brett.
让我们开始问答环节吧，布雷特。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Thanks, Amy. We'll now move over to Q&A. [Operator Instructions]. Joe, can you please repeat your instruction?
谢谢，艾米。我们现在将转到问答环节。[操作员指示]。乔，你能再重复一遍你的指示吗？
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley.
【操作员指示】我们的第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Keith Weiss。
Keith Weiss
A very nice end to a great fiscal year. Satya, you started your comments talking about how every customer conversation has the customer asking you about utilizing generative AI technology and how fast they could utilize that generative AI technology. What's the answer? What do you tell them in terms of the pace with which that could get into the marketplace and your customers can start using it?
一个伟大财政年度的美好结局。Satya，你在评论中谈到每次客户对话都会问你如何利用生成式人工智能技术以及他们能多快地利用这种生成式人工智能技术。答案是什么？在这种技术进入市场并且你的客户开始使用它的速度方面，你告诉他们什么？
And then for Amy, how should investors think about just the fundamental gross margins behind these generative AI technologies? We understand there's going to be a lot of CapEx to ramp up underneath these. But what should we expect in terms of what the ultimate gross margin looks like underneath all these new generative AI solutions?
对于艾米，投资者应该如何看待这些生成式人工智能技术背后的基本毛利率？我们知道在这些技术下面会有很多资本支出。但在所有这些新的生成式人工智能解决方案下，我们应该期待最终毛利率会是什么样子？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Thank you, Keith, for the question. The fundamental guidance and conversation that we have with customers is twofold. One is the easiest path to value out of generative AI is to adopt certain solutions, for example, GitHub Copilot. In some sense, it's sort of a no-brainer to add productivity leverage for all of the software developers in any organization. Whether you're a bank, you're a retailer or you're a software company, it applies to everyone. So that's probably one of the things that we have seen very good -- even productivity data and great adoption.
谢谢你的问题，Keith。我们与客户的基本指导和对话是双重的。一是从生成式人工智能中获得价值的最简单途径是采用某些解决方案，例如 GitHub Copilot。在某种意义上，为任何组织中的所有软件开发人员增加生产力杠杆似乎是一个不言而喻的事情。无论你是银行、零售商还是软件公司，都适用。所以这可能是我们看到的非常好的一件事情——甚至是生产力数据和良好的采用情况。
应用场景是关键中的关键，微软天然有这样的应用场景，只不过GitHub Copilot是个小众产品，其余是直接掌握终端用户的企业。
And then obviously, the excitement that there is already around the M365 Copilot. So first thing we sort of talk about is how we ourselves are deploying all these Copilots across, whether it's Sales Copilot or M365 Copilot or GitHub Copilot, how do you get maximum value out of these horizontal tool chain? And then on top of that, we have taken what we did underneath these products and built it out as a first-class tech stack, right, which we talked at our developer conference, called the Copilot Stack, and then with Azure AI tooling, made it possible for a someone like Moody's to build their own Copilot for their people.
然后显然，M365 Copilot 周围已经存在的兴奋情绪。所以我们首先要谈论的是，我们自己是如何部署所有这些 Copilot 的，无论是 Sales Copilot、M365 Copilot 还是 GitHub Copilot，如何从这些水平工具链中获得最大价值？除此之外，我们还将我们在这些产品下所做的工作打造成了一流的技术堆栈，我们在开发者大会上谈到了这一点，称之为 Copilot Stack，然后通过 Azure AI 工具使像 Moody's 这样的公司能够为他们的员工构建自己的 Copilot。
So to us, we want to be able to help customers build their generative AI applications on top of Azure AI, and with speed, if you will. And so those are the 2 things that we ask them to identify where they can get the maximum productivity leverage. And then we even swung with our own resources to help them get those things done. And the last comment I'd make is the cloud and data in the cloud enables all this because I think the diffusion cycle here, in some sense, we have a new set of cloud meters that are getting adopted faster because of everything else that came before it in the cloud. So those would be the observations.
因此，我们希望能够帮助客户在 Azure AI 之上构建他们的生成式 AI 应用程序，并且尽快完成。因此，这就是我们要求他们确定能够获得最大生产力杠杆的两个方面。然后，我们甚至动用自己的资源来帮助他们完成这些事情。我要做的最后一点评论是云和云中的数据使所有这些成为可能，因为我认为在某种意义上，这里的扩散周期，我们有一组新的云计量器，由于云中之前发生的一切，它们被更快地采用。这些就是观察结果。
这一点也关系到我们选择哪个公司的CRM，Zoho已经不是太好的选择。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
And to your question, Keith, on gross margins and how I think about those going forward, the first thing I would say is that I expect gross margins here to transition over time, just like they did in the prior cloud transitions. I would also say I expect workloads and the gross margins of the workloads to be different, just like they are in the cloud today.
至于你的问题，基思，关于毛利率以及我如何看待未来的情况，我首先要说的是，我预计这里的毛利率会随着时间过渡，就像之前的云过渡一样。我还要说的是，我预计工作负载和工作负载的毛利率会有所不同，就像今天的云一样。
I would also add one thing that's different than last time, we talked a bit about this before, is that we start out in a different place with more of a shared platform, which allows us to scale those gross margins a bit faster than last time. And we do expect, as you asked and Satya talked about, the pace of this adoption curve, we do expect to be faster. So you're seeing the CapEx spend accelerate in Q4 and then again in Q1, and we've talked about what it should look like the rest of the year.
我还要补充一点，这一次与上次不同的是，我们之前谈过一点，我们从一个更具共享平台的不同位置开始，这使我们能够比上次更快地扩大毛利率。正如你问的那样，萨蒂亚谈到，这种采纳曲线的速度，我们确实希望更快。所以你会看到在第四季度和第一季度加速资本支出，我们已经谈过今年其余时间应该是什么样子。
Now that being said, we're talking about all that and going through that transition while delivering in FY '24 over FY '23, effectively 1 point higher operating margins. Because if it's flat year-over-year, as we guided, with the headwind from the useful life change, when you correct for that, it's about 1 point higher. So I think the real focus here is being able to be aggressive in meeting the demand curve and focusing on the transition and growth in gross margins and delivering the operating leverage.
现在说到这一点，我们正在讨论所有这些，并在 FY '24 交付时经历 FY '23 的过渡，有效地提高 1 个百分点的运营利润率。因为如果与我们指导的一样，年度持平，受到有用寿命变化的阻力，当你纠正这一点时，它大约高出 1 个百分点。所以我认为这里真正的重点是能够积极地满足需求曲线，并专注于过渡和毛利率的增长，以及提供运营杠杆。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies.
我们下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。
Brent Thill 布伦特·希尔
Satya, on the optimization headwinds that you continue to see, when do you think we hit peak optimization? Are we getting close to hitting that peak and getting some relief in the back half of the year and maybe AI helping provide us a tailwind? Any color from what you're seeing from your perspective would be helpful.
Satya，在您持续看到的优化阻力方面，您认为我们何时达到最佳优化？我们是否快要达到峰值，并在年后半段得到一些缓解，也许人工智能能够提供一些助力？从您的角度看到的任何信息都会很有帮助。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Sure, Brent. Thank you for the question. Yes, a couple of observations. One is, I think, overall in the cloud, you do see new project starts and then those project starts get optimized and then you sort of time-series all of that, and that's sort of what you see in the normal course. What happened here was during the pandemic, obviously, there were lots of new project starts and optimization in some sense was postponed, and that's where you're seeing, I'll call it, catch-up optimization. And that's something that, to your point, we will lap. Going into the next couple of quarters, I think, it will come down.
当然，布伦特。谢谢你的问题。是的，有几点观察。首先，我认为，在云端，你会看到新项目的启动，然后这些项目会被优化，然后你会对所有这些进行时间序列分析，这在正常情况下是可以看到的。在这里发生的是，在疫情期间，显然有很多新项目的启动，而优化在某种程度上被推迟了，这就是你所看到的，我会称之为赶上优化。这是一件事情，正如你所说，我们会赶上。在接下来的几个季度中，我认为，这种情况会有所改善。
And we are seeing new project starts, both traditional type of project starts, even cloud migrations, data applications and, of course, obviously, the AI applications. But we'll get back to I'll call the normal pace of new project starts and optimizations going forward, that we will cycle through, I think, in the next couple of quarters, what is the last catch-up optimization.
我们看到了新项目的启动，包括传统类型的项目启动，甚至包括云迁移、数据应用，当然，显然还有 AI 应用。但我们将回到我称之为新项目启动和优化的正常节奏，并将继续前进，我认为，在接下来的几个季度中，我们将循环进行，这是最后一次赶上优化。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
I would just add, Brent, I think to Satya's point and maybe to build a bit of a line for you, I think it felt very similar to last quarter where we made the same comments, which is we're seeing sort of the normal optimization plus we're seeing new workload starts across these workloads Satya talked about. And I think that's what we're saying going forward and really what the change is just that lapping of, I think, a bit of a catch-up from a year ago. And you're right, we'll continue to do that through H2.
我只想补充一下，Brent，我认为对于萨提亚的观点，也许为你构建一点线索，我认为感觉非常类似于上个季度，我们发表了相同的评论，即我们看到了正常的优化以及萨提亚谈到的这些工作负载的新启动。我认为这就是我们未来的发展方向，真正的变化只是从一年前开始追赶。你说得对，我们将继续在下半年这样做。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mark Moerdler with Bernstein Research.
下一个问题来自 Bernstein Research 的 Mark Moerdler。
Mark Moerdler 马克·默德勒
And congrats on the quarter. Amy, CapEx moved up significantly Q-over-Q and year-over-year and it's increasing moving forward. Can you give us some color? Is it physical data centers? Is it predominantly servers? Is it predominantly AI-driven? How should we think about the useful life of it? And then quickly for Satya, can you give us some -- status on the general availability of the full Copilot development stack? And how long it's taking clients and partners to build Copilots?
关于季度的祝贺。艾米，资本支出在季度间和年度间显著增加，并且未来将继续增加。你能给我们一些细节吗？这是关于物理数据中心吗？主要是服务器吗？主要是人工智能驱动的吗？我们应该如何考虑其有用寿命？然后对于萨蒂亚，你能告诉我们一些关于完整 Copilot 开发堆栈的普遍可用性的情况吗？客户和合作伙伴构建 Copilots 需要多长时间？
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Why don't I start on the CapEx question, Satya, then I'll turn it over to you. Mark, really, first of all, both in Q4 and then talking about Q1, the acceleration is really quite broad. It's both on -- both the data centers and a physical basis plus CPUs and GPUs and networking equipment, think of it in a broad sense as opposed to a narrow sense. So it's overall increases of acceleration of overall capacity.
为什么我不先谈一下资本支出的问题，Satya，然后再把话题交给你。马克，首先，在 Q4 和谈到 Q1 时，加速度确实非常广泛。这既涉及数据中心和物理基础，又涉及 CPU 和 GPU 以及网络设备，可以从广义上而不是狭义上考虑。因此，整体而言，加速度的增加是整体容量的增加。
And I think if you look back over really FY '23, you wouldn't have seen some of the pace on normal, what I would say, capacity adds, even for the normal Azure workload. So you're seeing both accelerations, the normal Azure workloads plus some of the AI workloads, is partially the reason. So it's why I do comment quite often that it's both overall Commercial Cloud demand and building out capacity for AI. It's both.
我认为，如果你回顾一下真正的 FY'23，你会发现一些正常情况下的速度并不像我所说的那样，甚至对于正常的 Azure 工作负载的增加。因此，你会看到加速，正常的 Azure 工作负载以及一些 AI 工作负载，部分原因就在于此。这就是为什么我经常评论说，这既是整体商业云需求，也是为 AI 构建容量。两者兼而有之。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Yes. And I think just for perspective, I think it's sort of always good to think about it, right, where we have, what, 111 [bill] (ph) commercial cloud business growing at, what, 22% year-over-year. And then you had a CapEx growth, which is around the same number, 23%, 24%. So in some sense, it's sort of replacement capital plus some new capital that is going to drive new growth. So that's, I think, the scale. And we feel good about that structure of overall growth rates and how it translates into future TAM opportunity for us.
是的。我认为从透视的角度来看，我认为考虑这一点总是很好的，对吧，我们有，什么，111 亿（账单）商业云业务以每年 22%的速度增长。然后你有资本支出增长，大约是同样的数字，23%，24%。所以在某种意义上，这是一种替代资本再加上一些新资本，将推动新的增长。所以，我认为，这就是规模。我们对整体增长率的结构以及它如何转化为我们未来的 TAM 机会感到满意。
And then to your other question on how all this translates into project starts effectively, the Copilot stack is available today on Azure. So we have everything from Azure AI tool chain where you can use obviously, Azure OpenAI or even you can use open models from Llama and Hugging Face models. You have all the Fabric and all of our operational data stores for what is one of the most useful patterns around generative AI as what is called Retrieval Augmented Generation, which is you take the data that you have in the data stores, use it in a prompt to generate completions, summaries, what have you. And so that's something that we've seen a lot of and the Copilots are fundamentally orchestrations of that. And so we have all of these services available.
然后回答您关于如何将所有这些有效地转化为项目启动的另一个问题，Copilot 堆栈今天在 Azure 上可用。因此，我们拥有从 Azure AI 工具链到 Azure OpenAI，甚至可以使用 Llama 和 Hugging Face 模型的开放模型。您拥有所有的 Fabric 和我们所有的运营数据存储，用于生成式 AI 中最有用的模式之一，即所谓的检索增强生成，您可以使用数据存储中的数据，在提示中生成完成、摘要等内容。这是我们看到的很多内容，Copilots 基本上就是这些的编排。因此，我们提供所有这些服务。
The thing that's fascinating is when you use something like Power Virtual Agent, you have a low-code, no-code tool to build effectively these AI products or full-fledged Copilots like we've built. And all the underlying primitives for that are available on Azure. The tool chain is available on Azure and the speed with which customers are able to deploy them, ISVs are able to build them, is pretty impressive.
引人入胜的是，当您使用诸如 Power Virtual Agent 之类的工具时，您可以使用低代码、无代码工具有效地构建这些人工智能产品或我们构建的全功能副驾驶员。所有这些的基础原语都可以在 Azure 上获得。工具链可在 Azure 上获得，客户能够部署它们的速度以及独立软件供应商能够构建它们的速度都相当令人印象深刻。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Kash Rangan with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自高盛的卡什·兰根。
Kasthuri Rangan 卡斯图里·兰甘
Congratulations on the quarter. If I could, I just wanted to get your thoughts to shift the discussion away from COGS and the CapEx to more of the top line outlook. It looks like Azure growth rate is definitely starting to stabilize and generative AI contribution to Azure is measurably improving quarter-over-quarter, and optimization in a broader sense is also starting to settle down.
恭喜您这一季。如果可以的话，我想请您转移讨论的重点，不再只关注成本和资本支出，而是更多地关注前景。看起来 Azure 的增长率确实开始稳定下来，人工智能对 Azure 的贡献也在逐季度有所提升，而在更广泛意义上的优化也开始逐渐稳定下来。
Where does this leave with the company's outlook for Azure growth rate in the future quarters? Are we at a point where we've bottomed out, and we could start to see some acceleration due to the trends we discussed? And also if we take the superset of Microsoft Cloud, when you throw in the new pricing for Copilot, it certainly looks like the TAMs are opening up in a pretty significant way. So when you take the broader lens, that 21%, 22% growth rate that Satya and Amy referred to, what could be the outlook? Could we be too optimistic in entertaining hopes of some kind of acceleration in the years ahead? Or how do you think about the outlook on the top line?
这对公司未来几个季度 Azure 增长率的前景有何影响？我们是否已经触底，可以开始看到一些由我们讨论过的趋势所带来的加速？而且，如果我们考虑 Microsoft Cloud 的超集，当你加入 Copilot 的新定价时，看起来 TAMs 以一种非常重要的方式开始开放。所以当你采用更广泛的视角时，Satya 和 Amy 提到的 21％，22％的增长率，前景会是什么样的？在未来几年中，我们是否过于乐观地期待某种加速？或者你如何看待顶线的前景？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Sure. Kash, thanks for the question. So maybe I'll start and then, Amy, you can add because I think -- we do think about what's the long-term TAM here, right? I mean this is -- you've heard me talk about this as a percentage of GDP, what's going to be tech spend? If you believe that, let's say, the 5% of GDP is going to go to 10% of GDP, maybe that gets accelerated because of the AI wave. Then the question is how much of that goes to the various parts of our Commercial Cloud and then how competitive are we in each layer, right?
当然。卡什，谢谢你的问题。也许我会先开始，然后艾米，你可以补充，因为我认为——我们确实考虑了这里的长期 TAM 是什么，对吧？我的意思是，你听过我谈论这个作为 GDP 百分比的问题，技术支出会是多少？如果你相信，比如说，GDP 的 5%会增长到 10%，也许由于人工智能浪潮的到来，这个增长会加速。那么问题就是这些支出中有多少会流向我们商业云的各个部分，以及我们在每个层面上有多大的竞争力，对吧？
So if you sort of break it down, you sort of talked about how Microsoft 365, we think of this Copilot as a third pillar, right? We had the creation tools. We then had all the communication and collaboration services, and we think the AI Copilot is a third pillar. So we are excited about it. Amy talked about how we want to get it out first and part of this preview. And then in the second half of the next fiscal year, we'll start getting some of the real revenue signal from it. So we're looking forward to it.
所以，如果你把它分解一下，你谈到了微软 365，我们认为这个 Copilot 是第三支柱，对吧？我们有创作工具。然后我们有所有的沟通和协作服务，我们认为 AI Copilot 是第三支柱。所以我们对此感到兴奋。艾米谈到了我们想要首先发布它并作为预览的一部分。然后在下一个财政年度的下半年，我们将开始从中获得一些真正的收入信号。所以我们期待着这一切。
But we think of it long term as a third pillar, like we thought about something like, say, Teams or SharePoint back in the day, or what have you. Then Azure, the way I think about it is we still are, whatever, you're inning 2 or inning 3 of even the cloud migration, especially if you view it, right, whether by industry moves to the cloud, segment move to the cloud as well as country adoption of the cloud, right? So there's still early innings of the cloud migration itself. So there's a lot there still.
但我们长期看待它作为第三支柱，就像我们曾经考虑过 Teams 或 SharePoint 之类的东西一样。然后 Azure，我认为我们仍然处于云迁移的第二或第三局，尤其是如果你将其视为行业转向云端、部门转向云端以及国家采用云端的情况。所以云迁移本身仍处于早期阶段。因此还有很多事情要做。
自我更新的能力。
And then on top of that, there's this complete new world of AI driving a set of new workloads. And so we think of that, again, being pretty expansive from a TAM opportunity and we'll play it out. But at the same time, we are a $111 billion commercial cloud that has grown in 20s, and so therefore, we do hit law of large numbers. But that said, we do think that this is a business that can have sustained high growth, which is something that we are excited about.
而且，除此之外，还有一个全新的人工智能世界正在推动一系列新的工作负载。因此，我们认为，这将是一个相当广泛的 TAM 机会，我们将继续发挥作用。但与此同时，我们是一个价值 1110 亿美元的商业云，在 20 年间增长了，因此，我们确实受到大数法则的影响。但话虽如此，我们认为这是一个可以持续高增长的业务，这是我们感到兴奋的事情。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
And I think the only thing, Kash, I would add is, I think in some ways, what we're really pointing to is there's a process here. We see the demand signal is quite strong. It remains strong. I'm thrilled with all the product announcements we've made. I'm thrilled with them moving to paid preview and then moving to GA. They absolutely are expansive in terms of addressable market. They reach new budget pools is almost the way I talk about it a lot in terms of how CIOs or CFOs that I talk to think about that investment. So a growing opportunity.
我认为唯一需要补充的是，卡什，我认为在某种程度上，我们真正指向的是这里有一个过程。我们看到需求信号非常强劲。它仍然强劲。我对我们所做的所有产品发布感到兴奋。我对它们转向付费预览然后转向 GA 感到兴奋。从可寻址市场的角度来看，它们绝对是扩张的。它们几乎是我经常谈论的 CIO 或 CFO 如何考虑这项投资的方式。所以这是一个不断增长的机会。
大型科技公司利用技术优势成为新版本的投资公司。
And as you know, we're focused on executing against that. And then revenue is an outcome. But it certainly does require -- the demand signal requires the capital expense and then creates the opportunity. And that's why I think, in some ways, we're spending a little more time talking about some of that investment is because it is the demand signal.
正如您所知，我们专注于执行这一目标。然后收入是一个结果。但这确实需要——需求信号需要资本支出，然后创造机会。这就是为什么我认为，在某种程度上，我们花了更多时间谈论一些投资的原因，因为这是需求信号。
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Karl Keirstead with UBS.
我们下一个问题来自瑞银的 Karl Keirstead。
Karl Keirstead 卡尔·凯斯特德
Okay, great. Amy, if I could double-click a little bit on the exciting news around M365 Copilot as everybody on the line looks to layer that opportunity into our models, I just wanted to get your views. Are there any guardrails you'd offer us to sort of keep us in line? Is there a degree of gross margin pressure in the Office segment? In other words, is it a fairly cost-intensive new product that we should keep in mind? And also, could it pull along Azure in the sense that you need Azure AD and perhaps some of the other cybersecurity products? So a little color there might help everybody with their modeling exercise tonight and in the coming weeks.
好的，太棒了。艾米，如果我能在 M365 Copilot 周围的令人兴奋的消息上再深入一点，因为大家都希望将这个机会融入我们的模型中，我只是想听听你的看法。你有什么限制措施可以提供给我们，以保持我们的方向？在 Office 部门是否存在一定程度的毛利压力？换句话说，这是一个相当成本密集型的新产品，我们应该牢记吗？而且，它是否会带动 Azure，因为您可能需要 Azure AD 和其他一些网络安全产品？因此，稍微解释一下可能会帮助每个人在今晚和未来几周的建模练习中。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thanks, Karl. I think maybe I'll first start with the process we have when we release new products. And I absolutely understand we are excited, too, by the demand signal, the customer reaction, really the requests we're getting to be in the paid preview. It's all encouraging. As you know, we've -- last week, we announced pricing, then we'll continue to work through the paid preview process get good feedback. Then we'll announce the general availability date, then we'll get to the GA date. Then we'll, of course, be able to sell it and then recognize revenue.
谢谢，卡尔。我想也许我会先从我们发布新产品时的流程开始。我绝对理解我们对需求信号、客户反应以及我们收到的要求感到兴奋。这一切都是鼓舞人心的。正如你所知，上周我们宣布了定价，然后我们将继续通过付费预览流程获得良好的反馈。然后我们将宣布一般可用日期，然后我们将到达 GA 日期。然后，当然，我们将能够销售它并认可收入。
And that is why I continue to say that I am just as excited as everyone else about this, and it should be more H2 weighted. And we've, I think, given you some sizing opportunities. And I think I would use all that. But I do think this is really about pacing. And of course, we've still got to get our Security Copilot and some of the Dynamics workloads priced and released. And we'll continue to work toward that.
这就是为什么我继续说我和其他人一样对此感到兴奋，它应该更加 H2 加权。我认为我们已经为您提供了一些尺寸机会。我想我会利用所有这些。但我认为这真的是关于步调。当然，我们仍然需要推出我们的安全副驾驶和一些动态工作负载的定价和发布。我们将继续努力实现这一目标。
And of course, I think one of the things that people often, I think, overlook is, and Satya mentioned it briefly when you go back to the pull on Azure, I think in many ways, lots of these AI products pull along Azure because it's not just the AI solution services that you need to build an app. And so it's less about Microsoft 365 pulling it along or any one Copilot. It's that when you're building these, it requires data and it requires the AI services. So you'll see them pull both core Azure and AI Azure along with them. And I think that's an important nuance as well.
当然，我认为人们经常忽视的一点是，Satya 在谈到 Azure 的吸引力时简要提到了，我认为，在很多方面，许多这些人工智能产品都会带动 Azure，因为你不仅需要构建应用程序的人工智能解决方案服务。因此，这并不仅仅是 Microsoft 365 或任何一个 Copilot 在推动它，而是在构建这些应用程序时需要数据和人工智能服务。因此，你会看到它们同时带动核心 Azure 和人工智能 Azure。我认为这也是一个重要的细微差别。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Yes. If I could just add to what Amy said, the platform effect here is really all about the extensibility of the Copilots. You see that today when people build applications in Teams that are built on Power Apps and those Power Apps happen to use something like SQL DB on Azure. That's like a classic line of business extension. So you'll see the same thing. When I have a Copilot plug-in, that plug-in uses Azure AI, Azure meters, Azure data sources, Azure semantic search. So you'll see, obviously, a pull through not only on the identity or security layer, but in the core PaaS services of Azure plus the Copilot extensibility in M365.
是的。如果我可以补充一下艾米说的，这里的平台效应实际上主要是关于 Copilots 的可扩展性。当人们在 Teams 中构建基于 Power Apps 的应用程序，并且这些 Power Apps 恰好使用类似 Azure 上的 SQL DB 时，你会看到这一点。这就像是一个经典的业务扩展。所以你会看到同样的情况。当我有一个 Copilot 插件时，该插件使用 Azure AI、Azure 计量、Azure 数据源、Azure 语义搜索。因此，你会看到，显然，不仅在身份或安全层面上有推动，而且在 Azure 的核心 PaaS 服务以及 M365 中的 Copilot 可扩展性上也有推动。
其他商业模式中有没有这种循环成长的能力？
Operator 操作员
Our next question comes from the line of Mark Murphy with JPMorgan.
我们下一个问题来自摩根大通的马克·墨菲。
Mark Murphy 马克·墨菲
Satya, there's so much evidence now that GitHub Copilot is boosting developer productivity by 40% to 50% or more, and it's resulting in higher quality code. Do you envision a similar level of productivity boost for the Microsoft 365 Copilots or the Security Copilot or the Sales Copilot? In other words, can every room in the house be remodeled to a similar extent such that, that value proposition is pretty elevated across the entire stack?
Satya，现在有很多证据表明，GitHub Copilot 可以将开发人员的生产力提高 40%至 50%甚至更多，并且可以产生更高质量的代码。您是否预见到 Microsoft 365 Copilots、Security Copilot 或 Sales Copilot 会有类似程度的生产力提升？换句话说，房子里的每个房间都可以进行类似程度的改造，以至于整个堆栈中的价值主张都得到了显著提升吗？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Yes. Judson Althoff would love you for having used his metaphor of remodeling every room of the house with AI because you're absolutely right. I mean that's the opportunity we see. I think what you're also referencing is now there's good empirical evidence and data around the GitHub Copilot and the productivity stats around it. And we're actively working on that for M365 Copilot, also for things like the role-based ones like Sales Copilot or Service Copilot. We see these business processes having very high productivity gains. And so yes, over the course of the year, we will have all of that evidence.
是的。Judson Althoff 会因为你使用了他关于用人工智能重新装修房屋每个房间的比喻而喜欢你，因为你完全正确。我的意思是我们看到的机会。我认为你还提到了现在有关 GitHub Copilot 的良好经验和数据，以及围绕它的生产力统计数据。我们正在积极为 M365 Copilot 以及像销售 Copilot 或服务 Copilot 这样的基于角色的产品进行工作。我们看到这些业务流程具有非常高的生产力增益。因此，是的，在今年的过程中，我们将拥有所有这些证据。
And I think at the end of the day, as Amy referenced, every CFO and CIO is also going to take a look at this. I do think for the first time -- or rather, I do think people are going to look at how can they complement their OpEx spend with essentially these Copilots in order to drive more efficiency and, quite frankly, even reduce the burden and drudgery of work on their OpEx and their people and so on. So therefore, I think you're going to see all of that translated into productivity stats, and we're looking forward to getting that data out.
我认为最终，正如艾米所提到的，每位首席财务官和首席信息官也会关注这一点。我认为这是第一次 - 或者说，我认为人们会思考如何通过基本上这些副驾驶员来补充他们的运营支出，以实现更高效率，而且坦率地说，甚至减轻运营支出和员工等工作的负担和繁琐。因此，我认为你会看到所有这些转化为生产率统计数据，我们期待着将这些数据公布出来。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Alex Zukin with Wolfe Research.
下一个问题来自 Wolfe Research 的 Alex Zukin。
Aleksandr Zukin 亚历山大·祖金
I guess maybe just a multi-parter. You mentioned a couple of times that with the AI workload adoption that you're seeing on Azure, it's starting to look maybe a little bit different from an incremental share gain perspective versus previous generations. Can you maybe expand upon that? How should that drive for Azure consumption, particularly as we get through the year? And do you see a scenario where either the combination of lapping the optimization headwind, plus the AI contribution, plus this incremental tailwind that you're seeing around the workloads actually does drive a reacceleration in Azure, particularly in the second half when you're going to start to see some of those things kick in?
我猜可能只是一个多部分。您多次提到，随着您在 Azure 上看到的 AI 工作负载采用，从增量份额增长的角度来看，它开始看起来可能与以前的一些代际有所不同。您能否扩展一下？这应该如何推动 Azure 的消费，特别是在我们度过这一年之后？您是否看到一种情况，即优化逆风的超越，加上 AI 的贡献，再加上您在工作负载周围看到的这种增量助力，实际上会在 Azure 中推动重新加速，特别是在下半年，当您开始看到其中一些因素开始发挥作用时？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Yes. I mean the thing that we are both seeing and excited about is both the new workloads. I mean if you think about Azure, we have grown Azure over the years coming from behind. And here we are as a strong #2 in the lead when it comes to these new workloads. So for example, we are seeing new logos, customers who may have used out of the cloud for most of what they do, or for the first time, sort of starting to use Azure for some of their new AI workloads.
是的。我的意思是我们都看到并感到兴奋的事情都是新的工作负载。我的意思是，如果你考虑 Azure，多年来我们一直在追赶，Azure 也在不断增长。现在，当涉及到这些新的工作负载时，我们是强大的第二名。例如，我们看到一些新的标志，客户可能大部分时间都在云端进行操作，或者第一次开始使用 Azure 来处理一些新的人工智能工作负载。
We also have even customers who've used multiple clouds who use that for a class of sort of workloads also start new projects when it's transferred in data and AI, which they were using other clouds. So what I think you will see us is more share gains, more logo gains, reducing our CAC even. And so those are the things of points of leverage. But at the same time, we are not a small business anymore in any of these things. We're significantly -- we have significant scale. And so, yes, we celebrate. That's why we're even giving you the visibility at 1 point of it showing up this quarter, a couple of points showing up next quarter. And those are material numbers.
我们甚至有一些客户使用了多个云，他们在某种工作负载类别中使用它，也在数据和人工智能转移时启动新项目，而他们之前使用其他云。所以我认为你会看到我们获得更多份额，更多标志性收益，甚至降低我们的客户获取成本。这些都是杠杆点。但与此同时，我们在这些方面已经不再是一个小企业。我们有着显著的规模。所以，是的，我们在庆祝。这就是为什么我们甚至向您展示了 1 个季度的可见性，下个季度还会有几个点。这些都是实质性的数字。
And so that's kind of what I think will track. And I think Amy mentioned it because we want -- there are 2 parts to even AI, right? There's the models themselves with our partnership with OpenAI. That's sort of one type of spend on compute. And the other is much more revenue-driven, right, which is we will track the inference cost to the revenue and demand. And you're already seeing both of those play out.
所以这就是我认为会追踪的方式。我认为艾米提到了这一点，因为我们想要 -- 即使是 AI 也有两个部分，对吧？有我们与 OpenAI 合作的模型本身。这是一种计算支出。另一种更多是由收入驱动的，对吧，我们将追踪推理成本与收入和需求的关系。你已经看到这两者都在发挥作用。
Operator 操作员
Our last question will come from the line of Kirk Materne with Evercore ISI.
我们最后一个问题将来自 Evercore ISI 的 Kirk Materne。
Kirk Materne 柯克·马特恩
Satya, I was wondering if you could expand a little bit on your comments on data platforms. I think we've heard a lot over the last quarter or so about if you don't have a data strategy, it's tough to have an AI strategy. Can you just talk about where customers are right now in that journey to have a more, I guess, thoughtful data strategy? And what does that mean in terms of their ability to adopt AI services? Meaning do they have to sort of tackle the data issue first before they can really take advantage of all the AI services? Or how should we think about that sort of juxtaposition?
萨蒂亚，我在想你是否可以进一步阐述一下你对数据平台的评论。我认为在过去的季度里我们听到了很多关于如果没有数据战略，就很难有人工智能战略的说法。您能谈谈客户目前在这一旅程中的位置，以拥有更加深思熟虑的数据战略吗？这对他们采用人工智能服务意味着什么？也就是说，他们是否必须先解决数据问题，然后才能真正利用所有的人工智能服务？或者我们应该如何思考这种对比？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Yes, sure. Thank you for the question. Yes, absolutely. I think having your data, in particular, in the cloud is sort of key to how you can take advantage of essentially these new AI reasoning engines to complement, I'll call it, your databases because these AI engines are not databases, but they can reason over your data and to help you then get more insights, more completions, more predictions, more summaries, and what have you.
是的，当然。谢谢你的问题。是的，绝对的。我认为将您的数据，特别是在云中，是如何利用这些新的人工智能推理引擎的关键，以补充，我会称之为，您的数据库，因为这些人工智能引擎不是数据库，但它们可以对您的数据进行推理，帮助您获得更多的见解、更多的完成、更多的预测、更多的摘要，等等。
So those are the things when we say Copilot design pattern, that's sort of what that design pattern is all about. The thing that perhaps even in the last quarter, and I had that in my remarks, that's most exciting is how with Microsoft Fabric, especially for the analytics workloads, we brought together compute, storage, governance with a very disruptive business model.
所以当我们说 Copilot 设计模式时，这就是这种设计模式的全部内容。也许在最近的一个季度，我在我的讲话中提到的最令人兴奋的事情是，通过 Microsoft Fabric，特别是对于分析工作负载，我们将计算、存储、治理与一种非常具有颠覆性的商业模式结合在一起。
I mean to give you a flavor for it, right, so you have your data in an Azure data lake. You can bring SQL Compute to it. You can bring Spark to it. You can bring Azure AI or Azure OpenAI to it, right? So the fact is you have storage separated from all these compute meters, and they're all interchangeable, right? So you don't have to buy each of these separately. That's the disruptive business model. So I feel that we are well -- Microsoft is very well positioned with the way our data architecture lays out our business model around data and how people will plan to use data with AI services. So that's kind of what I mean by getting your data estate in order. And it's just not getting data estate in order but you have to have it structured such that you can have the flexibility that allows you to exercise the data and compute in combinations that makes sense for this new age.
我是要让你对此有所了解，对吧，所以你的数据存储在 Azure 数据湖中。你可以将 SQL Compute 引入其中。你可以将 Spark 引入其中。你可以将 Azure AI 或 Azure OpenAI 引入其中，对吧？事实上，你的存储与所有这些计算器分开，它们都是可互换的，对吧？所以你不必单独购买每一个。这就是颠覆性的商业模式。所以我觉得我们处于一个很好的位置 - 微软在我们的数据架构如何布置我们围绕数据的商业模式以及人们计划如何使用带有 AI 服务的数据方面。这就是我所说的整理数据资产。而且不仅仅是整理数据资产，而是必须将其结构化，以便您可以灵活地运用数据和计算的组合，使其对这个新时代有意义。
Brett Iversen 布雷特·艾弗森
Thanks, Kirk. That wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon.
谢谢，柯克。今天的收益电话会议的问答环节到此结束。感谢您今天加入我们，我们期待很快与大家交流。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚·纳德拉
Thank you, all. 谢谢，大家。
Amy Hood 艾米·胡德
Thank you, all. 谢谢，大家。
Operator 操作员
Thank you, everyone. This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.
谢谢大家。今天的会议到此结束。您可以在此时断开电话线。感谢您的参与。
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