2023-07-26 Chubb Limited (CB) Q2 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Chubb Limited (NYSE:CB) Q2 2023 Earnings Conference Call July 26, 2023 8:00 AM ET
丘博有限公司（纽约证券交易所：CB）2023 年第二季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 7 月 26 日上午 8:00
Company Participants 公司参与者
Evan Greenberg - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer
埃文-格林伯格 - 主席、首席执行官
Peter Enns - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Peter Enns - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Karen Beyer - Senior Vice President, Director of Investor Relations
Karen Beyer - 高级副总裁兼投资者关系总监
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Greg Peters - Raymond James
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Ryan Tunis - 自主研究
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Meyer Shields - KBW
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯-斯科特 - 高盛集团
Operator 操作员
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Brent and I will be your conference operator today.
女士们，先生们，感谢你们的支持。我叫布伦特，是今天会议的接线员。
At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Chubb Limited second quarter 2023 earnings conference call.
现在，我欢迎大家参加丘博有限公司 2023 年第二季度财报电话会议。
All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you’d like to ask a question at that time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, again press star, one. Thank you.
所有线路均已静音，以防止背景噪音。发言人发言结束后，将进行问答环节。如果您想在此时提问，只需按下电话键盘上的 "星 "和数字 "1"。如果您想撤回问题，请再次按 "星 "和"1"。谢谢。
It’s now my pleasure to turn today’s call over to Ms. Karen Beyer, Senior Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在，我很荣幸地请高级副总裁兼投资者关系总监 Karen Beyer 女士接听今天的电话。请说。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you, and welcome to our June 30, 2023 second quarter earnings conference call. Our report today will contain forward-looking statements, including statements relating to company performance, pricing and business mix. Actual results may differ materially. Please see our recent SEC filings, earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on our website at investors.chubb.com for more information on factors that could affect these matters.
谢谢大家，欢迎参加我们 2023 年 6 月 30 日的第二季度财报电话会议。我们今天的报告将包含前瞻性陈述，包括有关公司业绩、定价和业务组合的陈述。实际结果可能会有重大差异。请参阅我们最近向美国证券交易委员会提交的文件、财报和财务补充文件，这些文件可在我们的网站investors.chubb.com上查阅，以了解更多有关可能影响这些事项的因素的信息。
We will also refer today to non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations of which to the most directly comparable GAAP measures and related details are provided in our earnings press release and financial supplement.
我们今天还将提及非美国通用会计准则（GAAP）财务指标，这些指标与最直接可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）指标之间的对账以及相关细节将在我们的财报新闻稿和财务补充中提供。
Now I’d like to introduce our speakers. First, we have Evan Greenberg, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, followed by Peter Enns, our Chief Financial Officer, and then we’ll take your questions. Also with us to assist with your questions are several members of our management team.
现在我想介绍一下我们的发言人。首先是董事长兼首席执行官埃文-格林伯格（Evan Greenberg），然后是首席财务官彼得-恩斯（Peter Enns）。我们管理团队的几位成员也将与我们一起回答你们的问题。
Now it’s my pleasure to turn the call over to Evan.
现在请埃文先生发言。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Good morning. As I mentioned on our last call, I’m coming to you this quarter from Singapore, our regional headquarters for Asia Pacific. The outlook in Asia for growth across our businesses - commercial P&C, as well as consumer, non-life and life, both short and long term is significant. The region is simply energizing. We have a large organization of talented executives and a strong, diverse capability focused on the execution of a broad set of strategies throughout the region.
早上好。正如我在上次电话会议上提到的，本季度我将从亚太地区总部新加坡来到这里。我们在亚洲的各项业务（商业保赔、消费者、非寿险和寿险）的短期和长期增长前景都非常可观。该地区充满活力。我们拥有一支由优秀管理人员组成的庞大组织，以及强大而多样化的能力，专注于在整个地区执行一系列广泛的战略。
As you saw in our press release, we had a simply outstanding quarter; in fact, another record quarter performance with double-digit premium revenue and earnings growth as a result of world-class P&C underwriting results that produced an 85.4 combined ratio, record net investment income and a doubling of our life earnings. Our premium revenue growth was so well spread and broad-based, driven by outstanding double-digit growth in our commercial and consumer P&C businesses in both North America and internationally, and over 100% growth in our life business.
正如大家在新闻稿中看到的，我们在本季度取得了非常出色的业绩；事实上，由于世界一流的 P&C 承保业绩，我们的保费收入和盈利实现了两位数的增长，综合比率达到 85.4，净投资收益创下历史新高，寿险盈利也翻了一番。我们的保费收入增长分布广泛，主要得益于北美和国际商业及消费者保赔业务两位数的出色增长，以及寿险业务超过 100%的增长。
Our annualized core operating ROE was 13.8 with a return on tangible equity of 21%. Core operating income topped $2 billion, up 14% or 16.5% on a per-share basis. Both were record results. For the first six months, we produced operating earnings of $3.9 billion or $9.32 per share, up 13% and 15.8% respectively.
我们的年化核心运营 ROE 为 13.8，有形股权回报率为 21%。核心运营收入超过 20 亿美元，增长 14%，每股增长 16.5%。这两项指标都创下了历史新高。前六个月，我们的营业收入为 39 亿美元，每股收益为 9.32 美元，分别增长了 13% 和 15.8%。
Our underwriting performance resulted from a combination of strong premium growth, excellent current accident year margins with a combined ratio of 83.3, and favorable prior period reserve development particularly in North America.
我们的承保业绩得益于强劲的保费增长、83.3 的综合利润率带来的出色的本事故年度利润率，以及有利的前期储备发展（尤其是在北美）。
On the investment side, record adjusted net investment income of $1.2 billion was up $290 million or 31% over prior year. Our portfolio yield is now 4% versus 3.2% a year ago, with our reinvestment rate averaging 5.8%. Our investment income run rate will continue to grow as we reinvest cash flow at higher rates and compound income without changing our risk profile, and then life earnings doubled to $254 million, driven by our business in Asia, which is overwhelmingly supplemental A&H. Peter will have more to say about financial items, including cats, prior period development, investment income, book value and ROE.
在投资方面，调整后的净投资收入达到创纪录的 12 亿美元，比去年增加了 2.9 亿美元，增幅达 31%。目前，我们的投资组合收益率为 4%，而去年同期为 3.2%，再投资率平均为 5.8%。随着我们以更高的比率对现金流进行再投资，并在不改变风险状况的情况下实现复合收益，我们的投资收益运行率将继续增长，而在亚洲业务的推动下，寿险收益翻了一番，达到 2.54 亿美元，其中绝大部分是 A&H 的补充业务。彼得还将介绍更多的财务项目，包括利润、前期发展、投资收益、账面价值和投资回报率。
Now turning to more color around growth, pricing and the rate environment, consolidated net written premiums for the company increased 16.1% in the quarter on a published basis, or 16.8% in constant dollars, made up of 10.5% growth in our P&C business globally and almost 130% in life premiums.
本季度，公司的综合净承保保费按公布值计算增长了 16.1%，按固定汇率计算增长了 16.8%，其中全球 P&C 业务增长了 10.5%，寿险保费增长了近 130%。
Global P&C premium growth in the quarter was very well balanced and broad-based; in fact, our strongest quarter for growth since the third quarter of ’21. North America, Asia-Pac and Europe all produced double-digit growth. It’s worth noting since 2019, we’ve grown our commercial P&C business by 50%.
本季度全球保费增长非常均衡，基础广泛；事实上，这是自 21 年第三季度以来增长最强劲的一个季度。北美、亚太和欧洲均实现了两位数的增长。值得注意的是，自 2019 年以来，我们的商业 P&C 业务增长了 50%。
In terms of the commercial P&C rate environment, rates and price increases in property and casualty lines were strong in the quarter in both North America and internationally, while financial lines globally continued to soften. We have been diligent about staying on top of loss costs and our positive prior year reserve development reflects a steady conservative approach to reserving.
就商业财产险和责任险的费率环境而言，本季度北美和国际财产险和责任险的费率和价格涨幅都很强劲，而全球金融业务则继续走软。我们一直在努力控制损失成本，上一年度准备金的积极发展反映了我们在准备金方面采取了稳健保守的方法。
Beginning with North America, commercial premiums excluding ag were up 10.5%. P&C growth was 14% excluding financial lines, while financial lines premiums decreased, reflecting the disciplined response to the underwriting environment. Total premium in our E&S business, the Westchester, grew 12%, while our major accounts division grew 14%, or 11% excluding loss portfolio transfers.
从北美开始，不包括农业的商业保费增长了10.5%。不包括金融险种的P&C（财产和意外险）增长了14%，而金融险种保费下降，反映了对承保环境的有纪律的回应。在我们的E&S业务中，Westchester的总保费增长了12%，而我们的主要账户部门增长了14%，或者如果不包括损失组合转让则增长了11%。
In our middle market division, premiums were up 5% with P&C growth of 9%. Our middle market workers comp book was flat and financial lines premiums in middle market declined about 1.5%.
在我们的中间市场部门，保费增长了 5%，其中 P&C 增长了 9%。我们的中间市场工伤保险保费持平，中间市场的金融保险保费下降了约 1.5%。
Overall pricing for total North America commercial lines increased 12.8%, including rate of 8.7% and exposure change of 3.8%. Pricing for commercial property and casualty excluding financial lines was up 17.7%.
北美商业保险的总体定价增长了 12.8%，其中费率增长了 8.7%，风险变化增长了 3.8%。商业财产险和意外险（不包括金融险）的定价增长了 17.7%。
We are trending loss cost in North America at 6.7 and it varies by line. In general, we are trending loss cost in short tail classes at 5.8. In long tail, excluding comp loss costs are trending at 7.3 and our first dollar workers comp book is trending at 4.7.
我们在北美的趋势损失成本为6.7%，这会根据不同的业务线有所变化。总的来说，我们在短期尾部类别的趋势损失成本为5.8%。在长期尾部，不包括工伤赔偿的趋势损失成本为7.3%，而我们的第一美元工伤赔偿账目趋势为4.7%。
Let me provide a bit more color around rate and growth. Property pricing was up 31.5% with rates up 22% and exposure change of 7.8%. Major accounts and E&S property together grew premiums over 40% in the quarter, while middle market property grew 11.4%. Casualty pricing in North America was up 11.3% with rates up almost 9% and exposure up 2.2%. We grew casualty in the quarter 8%. In workers comp, which includes both primary comp and large account risk management, pricing was up just over 5% with rates up 5% and exposure up 4%. Primary workers comp premiums declined 2.9% in the quarter.
让我提供一些关于费率和增长的更多细节。财产定价上涨了31.5%，费率上涨了22%，风险暴露变化了7.8%。主要账户和E&S财产在本季度的保费增长超过40%，而中端市场财产增长了11.4%。北美的意外险定价上涨了11.3%，费率几乎上涨了9%，风险暴露上涨了2.2%。我们在本季度的意外险增长了8%。在工人赔偿方面，包括主要赔偿和大账户风险管理，定价上涨了略高于5%，费率上涨了5%，风险暴露上涨了4%。主要工人赔偿保费在本季度下降了2.9%。
For financial lines, the competitive environment remains aggressive, particularly in D&O, and rates have continued to decline. In the quarter, rates and pricing for North American financial lines in aggregate were down about 4.5%. Our fin lines book shrank 3.7%. Renewal retention for our retail commercial businesses was very strong at 98.5%.
对于金融险种来说，竞争环境依然激烈，特别是在董责险（D&O）方面，费率持续下降。本季度，北美金融险种的总体费率和定价下降了大约4.5%。我们的金融险种账面收缩了3.7%。我们零售商业业务的续保保留率非常强劲，达到了98.5%。
On the consumer side in North America, our high net worth personal lines business had another strong quarter with premiums up almost 11%. Our growth was balanced across a broad range of geographies and our retention was very strong at 104% on a premium basis and over 90% on an account basis.
在北美的消费者方面，我们的高净值个人业务在本季度再创佳绩，保费增长了近 11%。我们在广泛的地区实现了均衡增长，保费留存率非常高，达到 104%，账户留存率超过 90%。
In our homeowners business, we achieved pricing of 14.7% while the homeowners loss cost trend remains steady at 10.5%. There is a lot of attention placed on consumer auto experience, so I thought I would comment briefly on it.
在房主业务方面，我们实现了 14.7% 的定价，而房主损失成本趋势仍稳定在 10.5%。消费者的汽车消费体验受到了广泛关注，因此我想对此作简要评论。
For us, auto is a small part of our high net worth business, and you may have noticed that we had a modest reserve release in our prior year’s reserves for our North America personal lines segment in the quarter. This release was primarily in auto, and we are comfortable with our reserves and loss PICs for auto.
对我们来说，汽车是我们高净值业务的一小部分，大家可能已经注意到，本季度我们北美个人业务部门的上年准备金有适度释放。这主要是汽车业务的准备金释放，我们对汽车业务的准备金和损失事先知情同意（PIC）感到满意。
Turning to our international general insurance operations, net premiums were up 11% in constant dollars, or 9.3% after FX. Our international commercial business grew 12%. Consumer was up 9.5%. Our international retail business grew over 10.5% while our London wholesale business grew about 14%.
至于我们的国际一般保险业务，以定值美元计算，净保费增长了 11%，扣除汇率因素后增长了 9.3%。我们的国际商业保险业务增长了 12%。消费者业务增长 9.5%。我们的国际零售业务增长超过 10.5%，伦敦批发业务增长约 14%。
In our international retail business, growth was led by Asia Pacific with premiums up 17.5%, made up of commercial lines growth of over 12% and consumer P&C up more than 23%. Europe produced overall growth of 10.5% with the continent up more than 12%. We continue to achieve improved rate to exposure across international commercial portfolios. Our retail business pricing was up 8.9% with rates up 5% and exposure change of 3.7%, while loss costs across our international commercial portfolio are trending at 6.6%.
在我们的国际零售业务中，增长由亚太地区引领，保费增长了17.5%，其中包括商业险种增长超过12%，消费者财产和意外险增长超过23%。欧洲整体增长了10.5%，整个大陆增长超过12%。我们继续在国际商业投资组合中实现费率与风险暴露的改善。我们的零售业务定价上涨了8.9%，费率上涨了5%，风险暴露变化为3.7%，而我们国际商业投资组合的损失成本趋势为6.6%。
Our international A&H division had another strong quarter with premiums up over 16%. In Asia, our A&H business grew 31% driven by our direct marketing and travel insurance business and the consolidation of Cigna Thailand. In the U.K. and Europe, A&H premiums were up 11.5%. In our international life business, which is almost entirely Asia, premiums tripled to over a billion dollars.
我们的国际 A&H 部门在本季度再创佳绩，保费增长超过 16%。在亚洲，我们的 A&H 业务增长了 31%，主要得益于我们的直销和旅行保险业务以及对 Cigna Thailand 的合并。在英国和欧洲，A&H 保费增长了 11.5%。我们的国际寿险业务几乎全部集中在亚洲，保费增长了两倍，超过 10 亿美元。
Since I’m here, I want to conclude with a bit more about operations in Asia, which have very strong growth and momentum across our businesses, both consumer non-life and life, and commercial P&C. We have significant opportunity for growth, both short and long term, in a broad variety of markets across a broad range of customers and distribution channels. Our total premium in the region is about $9 billion and well balanced with half non-life split 50/50 consumer and commercial, and the other half life.
既然来了，我想最后再介绍一下亚洲的业务。我们在亚洲的业务增长势头非常强劲，包括非寿险和寿险消费者业务，以及商业保赔业务。无论从短期还是长期来看，我们都有很大的增长机会，市场范围广泛，客户和分销渠道众多。我们在该地区的总保费约为 90 亿美元，其中一半是非寿险，消费者和商业保险各占一半，另一半是寿险。
2023年总保费431.66亿，占到20%左右。
Our overall presence and capabilities in north, Southeast Asia and Australia are spread across 11 markets with distinct and significant areas of growth opportunity in each. Across the region, we have a broad range of product capabilities focused on different customer segments with varied and meaningful distribution strength, including the diverse and growing list of partnerships with financial institutions and e-commerce leaders that give us access to hundreds of millions of consumers.
我们在北亚、东南亚和澳大利亚的整体业务和能力分布于 11 个市场，每个市场都有独特而重要的增长机会。在整个地区，我们拥有广泛的产品能力，专注于不同的客户群，具有不同的、有意义的分销实力，包括与金融机构和电子商务领导者建立的多样化且不断增长的合作伙伴关系，使我们能够接触到数以亿计的消费者。
We have strong digital capabilities and a fast-growing digital insurance business encompassing more of our products. We are the largest direct marketers of insurance, mostly A&H products to consumers in Asia through both non-life and life companies that are unifying to offer more products to more customers.
我们拥有强大的数字能力和快速增长的数字保险业务，涵盖我们更多的产品。我们是亚洲最大的保险直销商，主要通过非寿险公司和寿险公司向消费者提供 A&H 产品。
From a macro perspective, the region is so dynamic and vast with a diversity of cultures and large economies, some with large young populations, some with large aging populations that have a different set of needs. Broadly speaking in Asia, there is an innovation-oriented mindset, a strong work ethic and a deep dynamism. Supply chains and capital flows are growing deeper across the region. There is growing infrastructure investment. As a result, regional commerce and trade is growing and becoming more connected between Southeast Asia, North Asia, India and Australia. There is a lot to be optimistic about.
从宏观角度看，本地区充满活力，幅员辽阔，文化多样，经济规模庞大，有的地区年轻人口众多，有的地区老龄人口众多，有着不同的需求。从广义上讲，亚洲有一种以创新为导向的心态、强烈的职业道德和深厚的活力。整个地区的供应链和资本流动日益深化。基础设施投资不断增长。因此，东南亚、北亚、印度和澳大利亚之间的地区商业和贸易不断增长，联系更加紧密。有很多事情值得乐观。
Summary - we are having an outstanding year with record quarterly and first half financial results. We are growing exposure in a thoughtful and balanced way and underwriting conditions are favorable in a lot of areas of our business. We have a lot of momentum heading into the second half, and as I look ahead, we again are confident in our ability to continue this pattern of growth in revenue and earnings and in turn drive double-digit EPS growth.
摘要--我们今年的业绩非常出色，季度和上半年的财务业绩均创历史新高。我们正在以一种深思熟虑且平衡的方式增加风险敞口，而且很多业务领域的承保条件都很有利。进入下半年，我们的发展势头强劲，展望未来，我们再次坚信，我们有能力继续保持收入和盈利的增长模式，进而推动每股收益实现两位数的增长。
I’m going to turn the call over to Peter and then we’re going to come back and take your questions.
现在我把电话交给彼得，然后我们再回来回答你们的问题。
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
Thank you Evan, and good morning. As you’ve just heard, Chubb delivered another quarter of strong underwriting and investment performance, leading to record results which generated $2.5 billion of operating cash flow this quarter and $4.8 billion through the first half of the year.
谢谢埃文，早上好。正如你们刚才听到的，Chubb在本季度又取得了强劲的承保和投资业绩，从而创下了创纪录的业绩，本季度产生了 25 亿美元的运营现金流，今年上半年产生了 48 亿美元的运营现金流。
We returned $1.1 billion of capital to shareholders this quarter, including $724 million in share repurchases at an average price of $197.04 per share, and $354 million in dividends. Book value and tangible book value per share excluding AOCI increased 2.2% and 3.1% respectively for the quarter and 4.3% and 6.5% respectively through the first half of the year, reflecting record core operating income net of the capital returned to shareholders noted earlier. In addition to the quarterly ROEs Evan just gave you, our year-to-date core operating ROE and return on tangible equity of 3.2% and 20.2% respectively exceed the target range Evan has laid out in the past.
本季度，我们向股东返还了 11 亿美元的资本，其中包括以每股 197.04 美元的平均价格回购 7.24 亿美元的股票，以及 3.54 亿美元的股息。本季度每股账面价值和有形账面价值（不包括增益资本成本）分别增长了 2.2% 和 3.1%，今年上半年分别增长了 4.3% 和 6.5%，反映了扣除上述返还给股东的资本后创纪录的核心营业收入。除了埃文刚刚给出的季度投资回报率，我们今年迄今为止的核心运营投资回报率和有形股权回报率也分别达到了 3.2% 和 20.2%，超过了埃文过去设定的目标范围。
Adjusted net investment income from the quarter was $1.24 billion or $20 million above the top end of our guidance, primarily from higher private equity income. The increase over last year of 30% was driven by strong cash flow, our accelerated portfolio turnover, and higher reinvestment rates. In the third quarter, we expect adjusted net investment income to rise from $1.24 billion this quarter to around $1.27 billion on a recurring basis, and to continue to grow from there.
本季度调整后的净投资收益为 12.4 亿美元，比我们指导目标的上限高出 2000 万美元，这主要得益于私募股权投资收益的增加。与去年同期相比增长了 30%，这主要得益于强劲的现金流、投资组合周转加快以及再投资率提高。第三季度，我们预计调整后的净投资收入将从本季度的 12.4 亿美元上升到 12.7 亿美元左右，并在此基础上继续增长。
Relative to our invested assets, we continue to tactically execute our portfolio turnover strategy while maintaining a conservative credit posture. During the quarter, we reclassified our $8 billion held-to-maturity portfolio to available for sale, to have even more flexibility to put money to work at higher yields. These securities had $397 million after tax of net unrealized losses that reduced book value at the time of the change. It’s important to note that the transfer itself has no economic impact as the underlying securities remained unchanged and are of a very high quality, with an average rating of AA. We will look to sell parts of this portfolio only where and when we think it makes economic sense, and not all of the unrealized loss will become realized.
相对于我们的投资资产，我们继续有策略地执行投资组合周转策略，同时保持保守的信贷态势。本季度，我们将 80 亿美元的持有至到期投资组合重新分类为可供出售投资组合，以便更灵活地以更高的收益率投入资金。这些证券的税后未实现净亏损为 3.97 亿美元，减少了变更时的账面价值。值得注意的是，由于相关证券保持不变，且质量非常高，平均评级为 AA，因此转让本身不会产生经济影响。只有在我们认为具有经济意义的时候，我们才会出售该投资组合的一部分，而且并非所有未实现亏损都会变现。
Turning to our underwriting business, the quarter included pre-tax catastrophe losses of $400 million principally from weather-related events in the U.S. Prior period development in the quarter in our active businesses was a favorable $260 million pre-tax, which was split about evenly between short tail and long tail lines and included $146 million for North American commercial and $61 million for overseas general. Our corporate runoff lines had adverse development of $60 million principally related to molestation claim development.
转向我们的承保业务，本季度包括了4亿美元的税前灾难损失，主要是由美国的天气相关事件造成的。在我们的活跃业务中，上一期的发展在本季度是有利的，税前为2600万美元，这在短期和长期业务线之间大致平均分配，包括北美商业的1.46亿美元和海外通用的6100万美元。我们的公司清算线有6000万美元的不利发展，主要与性骚扰索赔发展有关。
As I noted, the PPD and overseas general for the quarter was $61 million versus $173 million last year. The larger favorable PPD in the quarter last year was concentrated in the 2020 accident year and included favorable development from COVID-related economic shutdowns. The year-to-date favorable PPD for overseas general was $204 million, comparable to last year’s $233 million and $181 million in 2021, all in short tail lines for these years. Our paid to incurred ratio for the quarter was 89% or 83% after adjusting for cats and PPD.
正如我所指出的，本季度的 PPD 和海外综合业务为 6100 万美元，而去年为 1.73 亿美元。去年同期的较大有利 PPD 集中在 2020 年事故年度，并包括来自与 COVID 相关的经济停工的有利发展。海外综合业务年初至今的有利 PPD 为 2.04 亿美元，与去年的 2.33 亿美元和 2021 年的 1.81 亿美元相当，这些年份的短尾线均为有利。我们本季度的支付比赔付比率为 89%，或在调整灾害和 PPD 后为 83%。
Turning to our life segment, year-over-year segment income growth came primarily from the acquisition of Cigna.
至于我们的寿险分部，分部收入的同比增长主要来自于对 Cigna 的收购。
Our core operating effective income tax rate was 19% for the quarter, which is at the top end of our guided range of 18% to 19%. We now expect our annual operating effective tax rate for 2023 to be in the range of 18.5% to 19%, excluding the impact of consolidating Huatai. On July 1, we completed the acquisition of additional shares of Huatai Group, increasing our aggregate ownership to 69.6%. We expect the closing of additional shares this quarter, which will bring our ownership up to 83.2%.
本季度我们的核心营业有效所得税率为 19%，处于我们 18% 至 19% 的指导范围的上限。目前，我们预计 2023 年的年度营业有效税率将介于 18.5% 到 19% 之间，其中不包括合并华泰的影响。7 月 1 日，我们完成了对华泰集团新增股份的收购，使我们的总持股比例增至 69.6%。我们预计本季度将完成增持，届时我们的持股比例将达到 83.2%。
Beginning in Q3, we will consolidate Huatai’s results within our financials. We currently estimate consolidation will result in a small amount of accretion to operating income and EPS, book value and ROE, and a modest amount of dilution to tangible book value which we estimate will recover within the next few quarters. However, I would note we are still working through our purchase accounting analysis.
从第三季度开始，我们将在财务数据中合并华泰的业绩。我们目前估计，合并将导致营业收入、每股收益、账面价值和投资回报率的少量增加，以及有形账面价值的少量稀释，我们估计这将在未来几个季度内恢复。不过，我想指出的是，我们仍在进行收购会计分析。
I’ll now turn the call back over to Karen.
现在我把电话转回给凯伦。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you. At this point, we’ll be happy to take your questions.
谢谢。现在，我们很乐意回答您的问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator instructions] [操作说明]
Your first question is from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.
第一个问题由蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski 提出。您的电话已接通
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Hey, great. Good morning.
嘿，太好了早上好
I guess first question would be on the--thanks for the commentary on loss trend in the commercial side. It sounded like it stayed flattish and yet the rate environment accelerated sequentially. I’m just curious, any context on why the rate environment is accelerating if loss costs are kind of staying steady - I know that’s just for you, and does your loss cost, also PIC include higher reinsurance costs, if you’re experiencing higher reinsurance costs? Thanks.
我想第一个问题是关于--感谢你对商业方面亏损趋势的评论。听起来似乎保持平稳，但费率环境却连续加速。我只是很好奇，如果损失成本保持稳定，那么费率环境为何会加速？我知道这只是对你们而言，如果你们的再保险费用较高，那么你们的损失成本是否也包括较高的再保险费用？谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well you know, the rate, it’s all baked into it, of course; but the rate environment accelerated in property, and I think that speaks for itself, as you know, where it’s about the loss environment particularly around cat and inflation costs and property generally, and reinsurance costs have moved up in property, and I think that’s a--you know, in total that’s a very rational response. In casualty, loss cost trends have been moving higher and I think it’s reflective of the trend we’ve been observing over the last number of years. It’s not a new story, it’s a story we’re aware of and on top of, but I think it’s rational.
当然，你知道，费率已经完全包含在内；但费率环境在房地产领域加速了，我认为这不言而喻，就像你知道的，特别是在关于巨灾和通货膨胀成本以及一般房地产的损失环境，再保险成本在房地产领域已经上升，我认为这是一个——你知道，在总体上这是一个非常合理的反应。在意外险方面，损失成本趋势一直在上升，我认为这反映了我们在过去几年观察到的趋势。这不是一个新故事，这是一个我们知道的故事，但我认为这是合理的。
You know, you see comp and professional lines, I talked about going the other way, so I think the market frankly and the reacceleration is a rational response to the external environment.
你知道，我说过要走另一条路，所以我认为市场的坦率和重新加速是对外部环境的理性反应。
Mike Zaremski 迈克-扎雷姆斯基
Okay. My one follow-up is on--you touched on catastrophe losses. They actually looked a bit lighter than at least what the consensus models for kind of a normal 2Q for Chubb, whereas some other competitors, maybe more regional based, have experienced much, much higher than, quote-unquote, normal catastrophe levels. Any commentary on your cat load this quarter, was it just--was it kind of in line with expectations?
好的我想跟进的一个问题是，你提到了巨灾损失。实际上，这些损失看起来比共识模型中Chubb公司正常的第二季度损失要轻一些，而其他一些竞争对手，也许更多的是地区性的，经历了比正常巨灾水平高得多的巨灾损失。你们对本季度的巨灾负荷有何评论，是否符合预期？
这个问题是愚蠢的。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You know, cat losses are never in line with--particularly with expectations. They’re either greater or less than you might imagine in any quarter on the average annual loss PIC you would choose for that. This was a very heavy cat quarter for the industry, and I think most companies have reported significantly higher cat losses than average. I don’t think there’s any particular magic as to why Chubb’s was lower. We underwrite well, we have a good spread of business, we select risk well; but that doesn’t mean we choose where a--it translates to we choose where a tornado is going to land and come down. If it had moved 10 miles to the east or west, we could have had greater losses.
你知道，巨灾损失从来不会与预期完全一致。它们要么比你能想象的要多，要么要少，这取决于你选择的年度平均损失成本（PIC）。这个季度对整个行业来说是一个巨灾损失非常沉重的季度，我认为大多数公司报告的巨灾损失都比平均水平要高得多。我不认为有什么特别神奇的原因导致Chubb的损失较低。我们承保工作做得很好，我们有良好的业务分布，我们很好地选择了风险；但这并不意味着我们选择龙卷风将要着陆的地方。如果它向东或向西移动了10英里，我们可能会有更大的损失。
It’s a variation. It has variability quarter on quarter, and we had a very good experience this quarter. Thanks for the question.
这是一种变化。每个季度都有变化，我们在这个季度有了很好的体验。感谢您的提问。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
下一个问题由 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 提出。您的电话已接通
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you very much. Good morning everybody.
非常感谢。大家早上好。
I guess my first question, just looking at North America, commercial’s underlying loss ratio, the improvement there, is there a mix component there? Is it mostly rate over trend? Could you maybe elaborate on that a bit?
我想我的第一个问题是，就北美而言，商业基本损失率有所改善，这其中是否存在混合因素？主要是费率高于趋势吗？你能详细说明一下吗？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
The current accident year loss ratio, it reflects the totality of the commercial business, so it’s a mix of all the lines, right? Property and casualty rate and price exceed loss cost, and that is potentially a positive to the ultimate loss ratio margin. In the case of comp and financial lines, rate and price lag the selected trends, and in that case the ultimate margin is potentially shrinking or it’s neutral. Our loss PIC reflects all of that, and we’re patient and we lean towards conservatism in our loss PICs.
本事故年度的损失率反映了商业业务的整体情况，因此是所有业务的混合，对吗？财产险和意外险的费率和价格超过了损失成本，这可能会对最终损失率产生积极影响。而在赔偿和金融业务方面，费率和价格滞后于选定的趋势，在这种情况下，最终损失率可能会缩小或保持中立。我们的损失赔偿责任险反映了所有这些情况，我们有耐心，在损失赔偿责任险中倾向于保守。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. Then my second question, just with regards to rate adequacy particularly in financial lines and property, just because of the very different directions we’re seeing rates moving in those lines, are the rates adequate in both of those today?
好的。我的第二个问题是，关于费率充足性，特别是金融和财产领域的费率充足性，因为我们看到这两个领域的费率变化方向非常不同，目前这两个领域的费率是否充足？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I think for the business we’ve written, yes, the rates are adequate for our portfolio, and our loss PICs reflect that. The kind of combined ratio we’re putting up has a mix of all of that in there and it speaks for itself.
我认为，就我们承保的业务而言，是的，对于我们的投资组合来说，费率是足够的，我们的损失 PIC 也反映了这一点。我们的综合赔付率包含了所有这些因素，这本身就说明了问题。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thanks so much, and good luck.
非常感谢，祝你好运。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Does that make sense to you?
你觉得有道理吗？
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James. Your line is open.
下一个问题由雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）提出。您的电话已接通
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Well, I think it might be close to, what, 8:30 pm your time, Evan, so I’m going to say good evening to you and your management team.
好吧，我想现在可能快到你们的时间了，大概晚上8:30，埃文，所以我想对你和你的管理团队说晚上好。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Thank you very much. It is - it’s about 8:30.
非常感谢现在大约是 8:30。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
It’s almost bedtime, right?
快到睡觉时间了，对吧？
For my first question, in your prepared comments, you spoke about innovation and specifically in Asia, and there’s been a lot of rhetoric in the marketplace--you know, it’s been ongoing, but it seems to have accelerated this year around artificial intelligence, large language models, generative AI, and we obviously closely monitor your expense ratio, so maybe you could spend a minute and talk about your perspectives on these very important technology developments and how you think about it for your company, not only in North America but on a global basis.
对于我的第一个问题，在你事先准备好的评论中，你谈到了创新，特别是在亚洲，市场上有很多言论--你知道，这些言论一直在持续，但今年围绕人工智能、大型语言模型、生成式人工智能的言论似乎有所加速，我们显然在密切关注你的费用率，所以也许你可以花一分钟谈谈你对这些非常重要的技术发展的看法，以及你如何看待贵公司的发展，不仅是在北美，而且是在全球范围内。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, and thanks for that question. We’ve been employing AI for quite a number of years now - five or six years, anyway, and particularly it’s algorithmic AI, not generalized or large language models. It’s employed in the operations side of the business, to a degree in the underwriting and claims side and the marketing side, chatbots, etc. There have been a lot of experiments and use cases that prove themselves out, and we’re now in a stage where we’re scaling and will over the next two or three years to receive what we think are significant benefits out of that, insightfulness and abilities in underwriting and in claims in discrete areas in the service side of our business where we see cost and lower level work that can come out or improve in its accuracy. All of that is things we know and we’re scaling the tools.
是的，谢谢你的提问。我们采用人工智能已经有相当长的时间了--反正也有五六年了，尤其是算法人工智能，而不是通用的或大型的语言模型。它被应用于业务运营方面，在一定程度上应用于承保、理赔、营销、聊天机器人等方面。已经有很多实验和用例证明了这一点，我们现在正处于扩展阶段，并将在未来两三年内从中获得我们认为的巨大收益，在承保和理赔方面的洞察力和能力，在我们业务服务方面的离散领域，我们看到成本和较低水平的工作可以产生或提高其准确性。所有这些都是我们所知道的，我们正在扩展这些工具。
At the same time, as you can imagine, we are on the large language models and the potential benefit that that will ultimately bring beyond algorithmic, particularly in underwriting and claims and the ability to work--either replace work that is done or make it more accurate, or work alongside underwriters. It’s not a silver bullet, and we’re doing this on a global basis, some regions more in marketing, some more focused on portfolio underwriting. But yet, whatever anyone is doing spreads to the other, and it’s just where we start on one and end with another.
与此同时，正如你所能想象的那样，我们正在研究大型语言模型，以及它最终将在算法之外带来的潜在益处，尤其是在承保和理赔方面，以及工作能力方面--要么取代已完成的工作，要么使其更加准确，要么与承保人并肩工作。这不是灵丹妙药，我们正在全球范围内开展这项工作，有些地区更注重市场营销，有些地区更注重组合承保。但是，无论谁在做什么，都会影响到其他人，只是我们从一个人开始，到另一个人结束。
The generalized and large language is going to be iterative, it will be over time. If you think about insurance and the parameterization risk or factor around what we do, how many lines of business, the exposures, the geographies you cross, and so by its nature it’s going to be iterative and take longer than some of the breathless rhetoric that I hear, but we’re focused on that as part of what a modern insurance company is going to look like and is looking like.
通用的大型语言将随着时间的推移而不断迭代。如果你考虑到保险和参数化风险，或者我们所做的事情、多少业务范围、风险敞口、你所跨越的地域等因素，那么就其本质而言，它将是迭代性的，比我听到的一些夸夸其谈要花更长的时间，但我们专注于这一点，将其作为现代保险公司的一部分。
这样的预测是不够严谨的，未来的不确定很大，有没有做好当下可以做的事？并且做到极致，只有这样才能提高确定性。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
I feel like we could probably have a long conversation on that topic. Appreciate the comments.
我觉得我们可以就这个话题进行一次长谈。感谢您的评论。
I need to pivot as my follow-up question to the reinsurance business--
我需要把我的后续问题转到再保险业务上来--
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Come and see me sometime, we’ll talk about it.
有空来找我，我们好好谈谈。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Okay, let me know when you’re available.
好的，你有空的时候告诉我。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Tomorrow for breakfast, if you want to show up! Go ahead.
明天的早餐，如果你想来的话！来吧
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
I don’t know if I can make it there tomorrow.
我不知道明天能不能赶到那里。
喜欢从市场上了解信息，温州人的特点，PGR喜欢从客观的数据中获取信息。
Reinsurance - you know, you look at what’s going on in the market, and I know you’re very close to it, it seems like especially in property cat, it seems like these conditions, some of the hardest market conditions we’ve experienced in 20-plus years, and yet if I look at your global reinsurance business and look at the growth, it seems like you’re not really growing your exposures, you’re just growing your rate. Maybe you could provide some perspective on how you’re looking at the reinsurance business in the context--and maybe your perspective is the rate’s still inadequate, but give your perspectives on the reinsurance market. That’d be helpful.
再保险--你知道，你看看市场上发生了什么，我知道你非常接近它，似乎尤其是在财产险方面，似乎这些条件，一些我们在 20 多年里经历过的最艰难的市场条件，然而，如果我看看你的全球再保险业务，看看增长，似乎你并没有真正增加你的风险，你只是在增加你的费率。也许你可以提供一些你如何看待再保险业务的视角--也许你的视角是费率仍然不足，但请提供你对再保险市场的看法。这会很有帮助。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, look - I don’t disagree with anything you said, but you’ll notice at the same time, our property insurance business is growing, like, 40% right now, and that’s a combination of rate and exposure, and some of that exposure is not premium, by the way, it’s structural changes and it’s unit count. It’s a lot of exposure growing.
是的，听着，我不反对你说的任何话，但你会注意到，与此同时，我们的财产保险业务也在增长，比如现在增长了 40%，这是费率和风险敞口的综合结果，顺便说一句，其中一些风险敞口并不是保费，而是结构变化和单位数量。这是大量风险的增长。
In property cat, that’s growing more exposure as we grow that, and it’s growing it in the tail. When we look at the risk-reward--and by the way, the property insurance as we grow it across geographies is also growing exposure in the tail. We prefer to put our emphasis on the property insurance business, and the spread of risk we’re getting, we’ve never seen better pricing and better risk-adjusted returns than we see right now in large account, E&S, middle market, in a variety of geographies across the globe. We’re putting more emphasis on that than we are on property cat. We don’t think the risk-adjusted returns are as favorable - plain and simple.
在财产巨灾领域，随着我们增加这一领域的业务，我们的敞口也在增长，特别是在尾部风险方面。当我们审视风险与回报——顺便说一下，随着我们在不同地理区域扩大财产保险业务，尾部敞口也在增加。我们更倾向于将重点放在财产保险业务上，以及我们所获得的风险分散度，我们从未见过比现在在大型账户、E&S（超额和意外险）、中等市场以及全球各种地理区域更好的定价和风险调整后的回报。我们在这方面投入的精力比在财产巨灾上更多。我们认为风险调整后的回报并不那么有利——简单明了。
财务造假，同样是温州人的特点。
Greg Peters 格雷格-彼得斯
Thanks for the answers. 感谢您的回答。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You got it. 你说对了。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
下一个问题由 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden 提出。您的电话已接通。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Morning David. 早安，大卫。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Hey, good morning Evan, or good evening for you, Evan. Just wanted to ask, I guess sort of related to the last question, just about premium growth in North America commercial and the difference between the 14% growth excluding financial lines, and I think you said it was about 18% increase in price excluding financial lines. Maybe you could just talk about the drivers of that disconnect.
埃文，早上好，晚上好。我想问的是，与上一个问题有关的北美商业保险的保费增长，以及不包括金融业务在内的 14% 的增长与你所说的不包括金融业务在内的 18% 的价格增长之间的差异。也许你可以谈谈造成这种脱节的原因。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. You know, there has been a lot of chatter I’ve noticed about that in the last number of months. It’s actually pretty straightforward - the majority of the difference between the two numbers is a result of structural changes. Included in our price is the impact of things like deductible changes and attachment points, where we can put a value on it, and so it acts like rate or it acts like exposure. It doesn’t add to premium necessarily, that portion of it, but it adds to potential margin, or another way of saying it, it supports loss cost.
是的，在过去的几个月里，我注意到有很多关于这个问题的讨论。其实很简单，这两个数字之间的差异大部分是结构性变化造成的。我们的价格中包含了免赔额变化和附加点等因素的影响，我们可以对其进行估值，因此它就像费率一样，或者像风险敞口一样。它不一定会增加保费，但会增加潜在利润率，或者换一种说法，它支持损失成本。
The point of talking about rate and exposure that way, rather than by the way putting exposure over into loss ratio and saying, here’s the loss ratio trend, which is different than loss cost trend, is to give a sense about that, and so here is the price we get, rate plus the trend, and yet a portion of the rate, depends on line of business, or of the exposure is actually not premium. As I said, it acts like premium but it’s not premium. That’s the difference between the two.
以这种方式讨论费率和风险敞口，而不是把风险敞口放到损失率中，然后说，这是损失率趋势，与损失成本趋势不同，是为了给人一种感觉，所以这是我们得到的价格，费率加上趋势，然而部分费率（取决于业务范围）或风险敞口实际上不是保费。正如我所说，它看起来像保险费，但其实不是保险费。这就是两者之间的区别。
这些不清不楚的地方很容易造假，相比于PGR，Chubb的产品线更复杂，并且没有看到强大的软件系统的支持，这些都是风险点。
Did I say that clearly for you?
我说得够清楚了吗？
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Yes, yes. That makes sense. I guess maybe just a quick follow-up on that, any way to size terms and condition changes versus, I guess, the premium increase change, or if I were to look at the rate increase?
是的，是的。有道理。我想，也许我只是想快速跟进一下，有什么方法可以将条款和条件的变化与保费增加的变化进行比较，或者如果我想看一下费率的增加？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
It’s in rate or it’s in exposure. We look at it, but we don’t go that far and start disclosing that. What you’ve got to know is look at our overall premium growth, our retention rates that we give you - it’s very healthy, and then what you can see is, wow, this is the amount of rate and price that goes against loss cost, so you can get a transparency around that. You don’t add the two together, they’re not comparable that way. They’re answering two different questions.
这是关于费率或者敞口的问题。我们审视了它，但我们不会走得太远并开始披露这些信息。你需要知道的是，看看我们的整体保费增长，我们给你的续保率——这是非常健康的。然后你可以看到，哇，这是与损失成本对立的费率和价格的数量，所以你可以得到这方面的透明度。你不会把它们两个加在一起，它们不是那样可比的。它们回答的是两个不同的问题。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Got it, okay. Yes, that makes sense. I appreciate that. That’s helpful.
明白了是的，有道理。I appreciate that.That's helpful.
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome. 不客气。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Then I guess just maybe on the North America commercial current accident year loss ratio ex-cat, was there--I know the second quarter tends to be an LPT--you know, heavy LPT quarter. Was there any of that or anything else, like non-cat property losses either way within the 70 basis points year-over-year improvement?
那么我猜可能关于北美商业当前事故年损失比率（不包括巨灾），第二季度往往会是LPT（延迟性损失准备金）——你知道的，LPT较重的季度。在70个基点的年同比改善中，是否有任何这方面的情况，或者像非巨灾财产损失之类的其他因素？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No, and it’s interesting - we’re kind of looking at each other like, we haven’t noticed that the second quarter in particular is a heavy LPT quarter. They kind of come lumpy through the year.
不，有意思的是，我们互相看了看，都没注意到第二季度的 LPT 特别多。它们在全年中都是不稳定的。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Great, thank you. 太好了，谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。您的电话已接通
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good evening Evan. My first question - you know, last quarter, sticking with North America commercial, you had pointed to premium growth for the balance of the year kind of being above 7.6%, and you guys exceeded that margin by a good amount this quarter - as you said, good property growth. It seems like that was a good driver there. Can you just give us a sense of how you think premium growth can transpire over the balance of the year relative to your expectations last quarter?
嗨，谢谢晚上好，埃文。我的第一个问题--你知道，上个季度，就北美商业业务而言，你曾指出今年全年的保费增长率将超过 7.6%，而你们本季度的保费增长率远远超过了这一水平--正如你所说，物业增长良好。这似乎是一个很好的驱动因素。你能否告诉我们，相对于上季度的预期，你认为今年下半年的保费增长情况如何？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Elyse, I’m feeling pretty good. I’m feeling good.
伊丽丝 我感觉很好我感觉很好
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay, I had to try.
好吧，我必须试试。
My second question - you know, we saw--
我的第二个问题 - 你知道，我们看到 -
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
[Indiscernible] but you know, we’re feeling good. You saw what I said in the commentary and what I said in the press release, that we’re going to continue in this sort of pattern. I’m not putting a number on it.
[但你知道，我们感觉很好。你们也看到了我在评论和新闻稿中所说的，我们将继续保持这种模式。我没有给这个数字。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay, that’s helpful. My second question - you know, we saw share repurchase improve, go up this quarter. I think you guys obviously had a new authorization and are sitting on a good amount of excess capital. Anything to read into the number and just how we think about level of--anything new in terms of thinking about the level of capital return from here?
好的，这很有帮助。我的第二个问题是，我们看到本季度股票回购有所改善和增加。我想你们显然有了新的授权，并且坐拥大量过剩资本。你们对这个数字有什么看法，以及我们如何看待资本回报水平？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. We thought we were undervalued. We think we’re undervalued. We’re buyers.
不，我们认为我们的价值被低估了。我们认为我们的价值被低估了我们是买家
巴菲特从2023Q3开始买入，到目前总共买了3笔，合计2596万股，总金额将近60亿美元，均价230左右，最后1笔是2024Q1买入的，数量是582万股，均价245.87。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay, got it. Thanks Evan.
好的，知道了谢谢埃文
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。您的电话已接通。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Hey, good evening Evan. First question I just had on cyber. First of all, where exactly does that live in the disclosures - is that in financial lines as well, and curious if you could give an update on the size of that book and how you’re feeling about that business from a rate adequacy standpoint.
嘿，晚上好，埃文。我的第一个问题是关于网络的。首先，这个问题在披露中的具体位置是什么--是否也在财务项目中，我很好奇你能否介绍一下该账本的最新规模，以及从费率充足性的角度来看，你对该业务的感觉如何。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, as you statutorily have seen, we write a sizeable book, and I don’t know that we’ve disclosed the total global premium but what I would tell you is, is we’re one of the top--you know, I don’t have the updated numbers, so I want to be careful, but we’re in the top 3 of cyber writers, maybe the top 2 of cyber writers globally. The business is growing in certain segments for us, but the overall business is growing and the rate environment has leveled off. Terms and conditions on what we underwrite are form. We were first to--really leaders to roll out a form that addresses systemic risk to a greater degree and addresses the severity in ransomware and other one-offs. The underwriting, we’re vigilant about it. The growth, we’re growing it. The pricing, it’s pretty good in most segments. There’s some segments that need rate, and in those areas we’re leaning back a little bit. That’s what I’d tell you about cyber.
是的，正如您所看到的，我们的保单规模很大，我不知道我们是否披露了全球总保费，但我想告诉您的是，我们是全球最大的网络保险承保人之一--您知道，我没有最新的数据，所以我想谨慎一点，但我们在全球网络保险承保人中排名前三，也许是前两名。对我们来说，某些领域的业务在增长，但整体业务在增长，费率环境也趋于平稳。我们承保的条款和条件已经形成。我们率先推出了一种形式，在更大程度上解决了系统性风险，并解决了勒索软件和其他一次性软件的严重性问题。在承保方面，我们一直保持警惕。增长方面，我们正在增长。定价方面，大多数分部的定价都相当不错。有一些领域需要提高费率，在这些领域，我们正在稍作调整。这就是我要告诉你的网络。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Got it. Appreciated the commentary, the line-by-line commentary on loss trend, but if I heard you correctly, I think you said workers comp, you’re trending at around 4%--
明白了感谢你的评论，对损失趋势的逐条评论，但如果我没听错的话，我想你说的是工人赔偿，你们的趋势是4%左右--------------。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
I think I said about 4.7%, from memory.
我记得我说的是 4.7%。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Okay, well that’s, I guess, a little bit higher than I would have thought that line was running at. Are you seeing any type of pick-up in inflation there? Are you trending it differently than you have in recent quarters, or--?
好吧，我想，这比我想象中的水平线要高一点。你是否看到了通胀的回升？你们的趋势是否与最近几个季度不同？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
We’ve increased it in the last--earlier in the year. You know, there’s two things: one, mindful of medical inflation, and number two, payroll increases. On one hand, that benefits exposure change, as we just talked about rate and price, and on the other hand, wages go up and that translates to severity on the indemnity side. Those two things together rationally are going to push up your PIC on loss cost and comp.
我们已经在去年--今年早些时候增加了这一数额。你知道，有两件事：第一，注意医疗通胀；第二，工资上涨。一方面，正如我们刚才谈到的费率和价格，福利风险发生了变化；另一方面，工资上涨，这也转化为赔偿方面的严重性。这两方面的因素合在一起，会合理地推高损失成本和赔偿方面的 PIC。
Ryan Tunis 瑞安-突尼斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。您的电话已接通。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Thank you. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Tracy - I know your last name. Go ahead.
特蕾西 - 我知道你姓什么。说吧
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Thanks Evan. As you sit right now in Singapore and you look at your opportunity set, how would you rank concerns of capital deployment priorities, underwriting capacity given your views of achieving rate adequacy versus acquisitions in emerging markets, could even be JVs?
谢谢埃文。当你现在坐在新加坡，审视你的机会集时，你会如何排定资本部署优先级、承保能力，因为你认为实现费率充足与新兴市场收购（甚至可以是合资企业）相比，你的观点是什么？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes, I’m not--first of all, we have plenty of capital flexibility. That is not a question. We are not constraining organic growth whatsoever, and I can tell you--I would make two comments to you. We are not on the acquisition hunt. We are focused on what we--there is so much opportunity around what we’ve got and strategy around organic growth. In Asia, we are just full up, it’s fabulous. In North America and other parts of the world, we’ve got plenty of growth opportunity and that’s what we’re getting after. We’ve got a great rate environment to take on more exposure in areas like property, and we are taking--it’s not a question of capital, it’s a question of are you willing to take on the volatility that goes along with it, and we are because we think we’re getting paid well for that. It’s a good thing to invest in with shareholder capital, and that’s our priority. That’s what we’re focused on.
当然，我们拥有充足的资本灵活性。这不是问题。我们并没有以任何方式限制有机增长，我可以告诉你——我想对你做两个评论。我们并不在寻求收购。我们专注于我们所拥有的机会以及围绕有机增长的战略。在亚洲，我们正处于全盛时期，这太棒了。在北美和世界其他地区，我们有很多增长机会，这就是我们正在追求的。我们拥有一个良好的费率环境，可以在财产等领域承担更多风险，我们正在这样做——问题不在于资本，而在于你是否愿意承担随之而来的波动性，我们愿意，因为我们认为我们为此得到了很好的回报。这是用股东资本进行投资的好事情，这是我们的优先事项。这就是我们专注的。
Then, you used the word JV. I read the same article, and you know what? Don’t believe what you read.
然后，你用了合资公司这个词。我读了同一篇文章，你知道吗？不要相信你读到的东西。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay, thanks. Yes, I wasn’t implying that you don’t have strong capital.
好的，谢谢。是的，我不是在暗示你没有雄厚的资本。
I’ve noticed that you reported $49 million of unfavorable reserve development for molestation claims - it’s not a large number, but I’m curious what you’re seeing right now on reviver statutes. Based on the work we’ve done, are those charges reflecting the 11 states where new statute of limitation reform laws went into effect, or do the reserves also reflect the 38 states introduced new reform bills this year?
我注意到您报告了 4900 万美元的不利准备金发展，用于性侵索赔--这不是一个大数 目，但我很好奇你们现在看到的撤销诉讼时效法规是什么情况。根据我们所做的工作，这些费用是反映了新的诉讼时效改革法生效的 11 个州，还是也反映了今年提出新改革法案的 38 个州？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
No. You know, Tracy, it’s more case specific. The only thing the reviver statutes as they open up them does, it opens up the top of the funnel, so more potential losses from years past, legacies going way back, events flowing to the top of the funnel, and then eventually some ripen, some percentage of them ripen into claims and cases, and ultimately in incurred. When we see a liability, we’re going to reflect it.
不，特蕾西，这要具体情况具体分析。撤销者法规的唯一作用就是打开了漏斗的顶端，使更多的潜在损失从过去的岁月、历史遗留问题、事件流向漏斗的顶端，然后最终有一部分成熟，有一部分成熟为索赔和案件，并最终产生费用。当我们看到负债时，我们就会反映出来。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Very basic question here - does statute of limitations only apply to child abuse, or is it more broad-based?
这里有一个非常基本的问题--诉讼时效只适用于虐待儿童，还是适用范围更广？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, it depends on the state. It varies. Some have opened it up more broadly and some, it’s only about--most, it’s only about child abuse.
这取决于各州的情况。不尽相同。有些州开放的范围更广，有些州则只针对--大多数州只针对虐待儿童行为。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Got it, thank you. 知道了，谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Wait a minute - I think I have a colleague who may be correcting me about that. No? Okay. No. The answer was right.
等等--我想我有个同事可能会纠正我的说法。没有吗？没有没有，答案是对的。
独脚戏，PGR的团队整体性要好得多。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。您的电话已接通
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Hey, good evening Evan. Evan, looking at--you know, with Huatai going to be consolidated here and ownership increasing, life insurance is becoming a pretty meaningful component of your overall earnings mix - I think you’ve got north of 10%. I’m wondering if maybe you could give us a quick snapshot of what the business mix looks like there, how much is savings products versus indemnity products, short tail, long tail, is much of it capital intensive? Just give us some perspective on how we should think about that life insurance business.
晚上好，埃文。埃文，你知道，随着华泰保险的合并和所有权的增加，寿险正在成为你们整体盈利结构中一个非常重要的组成部分--我想你们已经达到了 10%。我想知道，你能否给我们简要介绍一下你们的业务结构，储蓄型产品与赔偿型产品的比例是多少，短端产品还是长端产品，其中大部分是资本密集型产品吗？请告诉我们应该如何看待寿险业务。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You know, about 80%, 90% of the business is straight up accident and health business, the same kind of business we write on the non-life side. In the life side, you write a longer duration policy, and they’re all individual policies, so on the non-life side I may direct market the same kind of products and they’re annually renewable and they have a certain lapse rate to them, and on the life side I may sell through them agents and/or through direct marketing, and it’s dread disease and it’s hospital cash and it’s cancer and it’s accident insurance, and it will be sold predominantly--most of the book we have are individual policies and they are longer duration, which adds great stability, a long term asset. Then there is a percentage, but it’s a minority percentage of the business where it’s tied to a savings and protection policy, but yet we load it up with accident and health riders, so you’re going to buy a large amount of protection, the stuff we love, alongside a very traditional, much lower risk savings product that’s either on a par basis, where okay, any interest rate risk is fundamentally to the customer and we share the upside with them, or it’s got extremely low guarantees, like in the 1% range or 2% in a whole life policy, that’s it.
你知道，大约 80%、90% 的业务是直接的意外和健康业务，与我们在非寿险方面承保的业务类型相同。在人寿保险方面，你承保的是期限较长的保单，而且都是个人保单，所以在非人寿保险方面，我可能会直接销售同类产品，这些产品每年都可以续保，而且有一定的失效率，而在人寿保险方面，我可能会通过代理人和/或直接营销来销售，这些产品包括可怕的疾病保险、住院现金保险、癌症保险和意外伤害保险，而且主要销售的是--我们拥有的大部分保单都是个人保单，而且期限较长，这增加了很大的稳定性，是一种长期资产。此外，还有一定比例的业务，但这只是少数比例，这些业务与储蓄和保障保单挂钩，但我们在保单中加入了意外和健康附加险，因此，您将购买大量的保障，我们喜欢的东西，以及非常传统的、风险低得多的储蓄产品，这些产品要么是平价的，好吧，任何费率风险从根本上都由客户承担，我们与他们分享上行收益，要么是极低的保证，如终身寿险保单中的 1%或 2%，仅此而已。
寿险保单像是专门给白痴设计的。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great, that’s helpful. Thank you.
很好，很有帮助。谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
The overwhelming majority of this business is risk-based accident and health business.
这些业务绝大多数是基于风险的事故和健康业务。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great, that’s really helpful. Then this one is more focused, I guess, on your personal lines business. I’m just curious, could you talk a little bit about what you’re seeing happening in the regulatory environment, given the level of rate we’ve seen going through in, like, personal auto and homeowners? Are you starting to see any pushback by regulators?
很好，很有帮助。我想，这个问题更侧重于你们的个人业务。我很好奇，鉴于我们看到的个人汽车和房屋保险的费率水平，你能谈谈你看到的监管环境发生了什么变化吗？你是否开始看到监管机构的反击？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Yes. It varies by state. I think it’s pretty well known to you, it’s not hidden. We are employing where we want to grow exposure and we need more flexibility of terms or of rates. We are using E&S to a greater extent as a tool to be able to take more exposure and do it in a thoughtful way and shape portfolios, and we do that both in states where exposure is concentrated in cat, and we’re also doing it in states where the regulatory environment doesn’t allow us greater flexibility to be able to actually serve the public’s need.
是的，这因州而异。我认为这对您来说并不是秘密，它是公开的。我们在我们希望增加敞口的地方使用E&S（超额和意外险），我们需要更灵活的条款或费率。我们更多地使用E&S作为一种工具，以便能够更谨慎地接受更多敞口并塑造投资组合，我们这样做的州包括那些敞口集中在巨灾的州，我们也在那些监管环境不允许我们有更大灵活性以满足公众需求的州这样做。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great, thank you. 太好了，谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。您的电话已接通
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Thanks. I want to follow up on Brian’s question, if I can. Is there a specific opportunity for Chubb’s growth in North America personal because of regulatory friction that is leading a number of competitors to really pull back?
谢谢。如果可以的话，我想跟进布莱恩的问题。由于监管方面的摩擦，导致许多竞争对手真正后撤，Chubb在北美个人业务的增长是否有特定的机会？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, I don’t think it’s--yes, on the margin, there is that. But we have a really distinct, strong brand, and Meyer, I think the recognition of our brand and service, all things being equal, more customers, it’s proven, in our cohort want to buy Chubb, and then it’s a question of price and terms. There have been competitors who have been overly competitive in the area, and I think of--you know, in the past, naively so or for other reasons, have underpriced risk. We’re in a market know, I think, where there’s greater discipline in the business, and that creates opportunity for us, in addition to the notion of others who may have gotten it wrong and they’re pulling back.
嗯，我不认为--是的，在利润率方面，有这种情况。但是，我们有一个非常独特、强大的品牌，而且迈耶认为，在同等条件下，我们的品牌和服务得到了客户的认可，事实证明，在我们的客户群中，更多的客户愿意购买Chubb的产品，然后就是价格和条款的问题了。有一些竞争对手在这一领域竞争过于激烈，我认为--你知道的，在过去，他们天真地或出于其他原因，对风险定价过低。我认为，我们现在所处的市场，业务纪律性更强，这为我们创造了机会，此外，其他公司也可能弄错了，他们正在后撤。
Now, we don’t have an endless appetite, and we will shape our portfolio; but we’re using every tool we can to take more risk and more exposure in a balanced way, not to become the cat writer of high net worth but the national writer of high net worth, balanced, and to do that in a thoughtful and sound way that is enduring.
我们的胃口并不是无限的，我们会塑造我们的投资组合；但我们正在利用我们能使用的所有工具，以平衡的方式接受更多的风险和敞口，不是成为高净值人群的巨灾承保商，而是成为全国性的高净值人群承保商，平衡的，并且以一种深思熟虑和稳健的方式去做，这是持久的。
这可能是巴菲特喜欢的
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay, that’s helpful. Then just a brief question, I think I know the answer to this, but does the consolidation of Huatai impact the book value yield of the Chubb investment portfolio at all?
好的，这很有帮助。还有一个简短的问题，我想我知道答案，华泰的合并对丘博投资组合的账面价值收益率有影响吗？
Peter Enns 彼得-恩斯
To a very minor degree.
程度很轻。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay, perfect. Thanks so much.
好吧，完美。非常感谢
Operator 操作员
Your next question is from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的亚历克斯-斯科特（Alex Scott）。您的电话已接通
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Hey. First one I had is on casualty in North America - you know, you all have been fairly vocal about the need for accelerating rate there. I just wanted to get your updated thoughts on is that occurring at the rate you think you need it to for the industry to have adequate pricing, and what kind of competitive environment are you seeing there on casualty lines in North America?
嘿，我的第一个问题是关于北美的意外险--你们知道，你们都一直在大声疾呼需要加快北美的保险费率。我只是想了解一下你们的最新想法，即你们认为是否需要以这样的速度加快速度，以使该行业有足够的定价能力，以及你们在北美的意外险方面看到了怎样的竞争环境？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, I can’t speak for the industry, but I can speak for Chubb. I like the level of rate we are securing and the terms and conditions against the various cohorts of casualty we write, and I think we’re--I know we’re staying on top of loss development and loss trends, and then we reflect it in the pricing and the terms. I have said in previous quarters that I thought these lines needed to move, and in fact they are.
我不能代表整个行业，但我可以代表丘博。我喜欢我们所获得的费率水平，以及我们承保的各类意外险的条款和条件，我认为我们--我知道我们一直在关注损失的发展和损失的趋势，然后将其反映在定价和条款中。我曾在前几个季度说过，我认为这些保险条款需要调整，事实上也是如此。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Got it. The second question I had is around the casualty reserves - I’m sure you’ve seen there’s a fair amount of chatter around the 2013 to 2019 accident years and people looking at the loss cost trend on longer tail lines and thinking through, you know, should we be confident in those reserves. I appreciate this is probably a bit of an annoying question, but is there anything you would add to that discussion to help people think through your confidence in those reserves, just in light of the environment?
知道了。我的第二个问题是关于意外事故准备金的--我相信你已经看到，有相当多的讨论围绕着 2013 年至 2019 年的事故年，人们关注着长尾项目的损失成本趋势，并思考着，你知道，我们是否应该对这些准备金有信心。我知道这可能是一个有点恼人的问题，但考虑到目前的环境，你是否有什么可以补充的，以帮助人们思考你对这些储备的信心？
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
Well, pretty simply I’d say this - look at our track record. We’ve been doing this for how long, how many decades, through all kinds of cycles, and look at our reserve policy and look at our reserving track record. And by the way, Peter just made some expansive comments around prior period reserve development, which is simply a reflection of strength of reserve. We are quite confident and comfortable with the level of our reserves.
我想说的很简单--看看我们的记录。我们这样做已经有几十年了，经历了各种周期，看看我们的储备政策，看看我们的储备记录。顺便说一句，彼得刚刚就前期储备发展发表了一些扩张性评论，这只是储备实力的一种反映。我们对我们的储备水平相当有信心，也很放心。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯-斯科特
Thanks. 谢谢。
Evan Greenberg 埃文-格林伯格
You’re welcome. 不客气。
Operator 操作员
At this time, I would like to turn today’s call back over to Karen Beyer.
现在，我想把今天的电话交还给凯伦-拜尔。
Karen Beyer 凯伦-拜尔
Thank you everyone for joining us today. If you have any follow-up questions, we’ll be around to take your call. Thank you.
感谢大家参加今天的会议。如果您有任何后续问题，我们将随时接听您的电话。谢谢。
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating. This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.
女士们，先生们，感谢你们的参与。今天的电话会议到此结束。现在可以挂断电话。
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