2023-09-11 James Dimon.Barclays 21st Annual Global Financial Services Conference
Unknown Analyst
Thank you, everybody. It's a very, very distinct pleasure of mine to introduce the preeminent leader of our industry, person who's been the preeminent leader of our industry for many decades, Jamie Dimon. It's an even greater pleasure when he was your former boss. Thank you. Thanks for coming.
未知分析师
感谢各位。能介绍我们行业数十年来的卓越领袖杰米·戴蒙，对我而言是莫大的荣幸。他曾是大家的前老板，这更令我欣喜。谢谢，欢迎你的到来。
When I say Jamie has been a leader of this industry, it's not just that he has run the largest bank in the world, the most excellently run. He's shown us how to do it. But it's also he's been a leader for the way the industry should think about the business and the business of banking through the financial crisis, through the European crisis. And this year, through what happened with the regional banks.
当我称杰米为行业领袖时，这不仅因为他掌管着全球规模最大、管理最卓越的银行，并向我们展示了成功路径；更因为在金融危机、欧洲危机以及今年地区性银行风波中，他引领了全行业对银行业务及其经营方式的思考。
And that's very important for us to keep in mind. And it's also the basics of what good banking is about, disciplined growth, good risk management, the importance of technology and systems. He was talking about it a lot before many people did. I know you all want to hear from him. I'll just say one more thing, which is that when I used to work at JPMorgan, often we'd ask ourselves the story whether we were going to take something to him or not, face a problem. Well, what would Jamie think? What would he do?
这一点对我们至关重要，也体现了优质银行的基石：有纪律的增长、完善的风险管理，以及对技术与系统的重视。他在许多人尚未意识到之前就强调这些。我知道大家都想听他发言。我再补充一句——我过去在摩根大通工作时，每遇难题都自问：杰米会怎么想？他会怎么做？
To my surprise, and it should not have been my surprise, I found that I continue to do it afterwards. And I'm not the only bank CEO who does it. And there can be no greater tribute to a person than to say that you've taught us. So Jamie, thank you for coming.
令我意外（其实也不意外）的是，我离开后仍保持这种习惯，而且不止我一位银行CEO如此。对一个人而言，“你教会了我们”便是最高敬意。杰米，感谢你的到来。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Venkat, thank you very much for the kind words. Thank you.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Venkat，非常感谢你的美言。谢谢。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
If we could just put up the first ARS question as we get going. But Jamie, thank you for taking the time. I appreciate you being here.
Jason Goldberg 巴克莱银行
在开始前能否先放出第一道ARS问题？杰米，感谢你抽时间莅临。
I really want to do focus on JPMorgan this afternoon, but I'd remiss if I didn't ask you about your macro view of the world, perhaps on the consumer side, 80 million consumer customers, 12% deposit market share, over 20% card share. You must have a well-informed real-time view of the health of the consumer. So we'd love to hear about it?
今天下午我本想聚焦摩根大通，但若不请你谈谈宏观观点就失职了——尤其是消费者层面。你们拥有8,000万零售客户，存款市场份额12%，信用卡份额超20%，必然实时洞察消费者健康状况。请分享一下？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
First of all, thrilled to be here. Jason, one of the great analysts in banking, I read all your stuff, as you know. And Venkat, thank you for those kind words.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
首先，很高兴来到这里。Jason，你是银行业顶尖分析师之一，我一直在读你的报告。Venkat，感谢你的赞誉。
I'll tell you by the consumer, but there's a big but. So I want to be -- it's pretty good. They have more money than they've had, home price has gone up for the last 15 years. Asset prices have gone up. Their balance sheet is in great shape. Their incomes have gone up. They've got more cash in their check-in accounts than pre-COVID. It was a lot more, and it's been coming down so that excess -- we call it excess savings seems to be normalizing. Wages are going up, particularly at the low end. It's pretty good, which is why you have a pretty good economy.
谈到消费者，有一个大前提。总体状况相当不错：他们手中资金比以往更多，房价十五年来上涨，资产价格上升，资产负债表稳健，收入增长，支票账户余额高于疫情前——虽然高点已回落，“超额储蓄”正趋于正常化。工资上涨，尤其是低收入群体。整体表现良好，这也是经济不错的原因。
And there are huge buts here. And I just think people will make a mistake to look at real-time numbers and not look at the future. And the future has quantative tightening. We've been spending money like drunken sailors around the world, this war in Ukraine is still going on. Those are really big buts. To say the consumer is strong today, meaning you got to have a booming environment for years is a huge mistake.
但也存在巨大隐忧。如果只盯实时数据忽视未来，那就是错误。未来面临量化紧缩；全球各地如醉汉般挥霍财政；乌克兰战争仍在持续——这些都是重大风险。认为消费者今日强劲就意味着未来多年景气，绝对是大错。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
And then maybe shift gears leading positions on the wholesale front. I was hoping you could take us your thoughts there as well.
Jason Goldberg 巴克莱银行
我们换个话题，聊聊你们在批发领域的领先地位，也想听听你的看法。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Well, same thing. If you look at wholesale, and -- we were quite honest about it, we've been over earning on credit. We're over earning on credit. You see it in credit card, where we all would probably say the lowest credit card loss will ever go, a norm is 3.5. The lowest ever go is like 2.75, they hit 1.50. Now they're going back to the 2.50, 3.00, just the normalization.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
批发业务同理——坦率地说，我们在信贷方面赚得过多。以信用卡为例，正常损失率约3.5%，历史最低约2.75%，而此前降至1.50%。如今回升至2.5%到3%，只是回归正常化。
Wholesale had the same thing. We had the lowest wholesale credit losses we've ever seen. Literally, probably in the history of banking, we had middle market losses for the better part of 5 or 6 years, and it's still good. It's normalizing. Downgrades are being upgrades, there's a little more stress and strain, particularly in certain sectors like real estate, you're getting a little more stress and strain in subprime auto and stuff like that. But it's -- I call it more of a normalizing process.
批发贷款也一样，曾创下史上最低损失率——可能是银行业历史最低。中端市场贷款在五六年里几乎零损失，现在依然良好，只是正常化。评级下调增多，压力略升，尤其房地产等行业，次级汽车贷款也有压力；但我认为这只是正常化过程。
If and when you have a recession, which you're eventually going to have, you'll have a real -- a normal credit cycle and which I think is quite predictable. In that normal credit cycle, something always does worse than normal. So this one, the obvious one is office real estate, but there'll be a couple of other industries that probably do worse than normal this time around, too.
若发生衰退——迟早会来——你就会经历真正的、正常的信用周期，这是可预测的。在正常信用周期中，总有某些领域表现得更差。这一轮最明显的是写字楼房地产，此外还会有其他几个行业表现低于常态。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
And maybe just offer your high-level perspective?
能否请您先谈谈整体的高层次观点？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
But again, think of it -- it's the same thing. I really -- the fiscal spending, deficit spending is higher than it's ever been as a percentage of GDP other than more time. People -- and that's before all the additional commitments to the green economy, the remiliterization of the world, the IRA Act, the Chip Act, Europe financing, the energy crisis, which they did last winter, God knows what it's going to cost them this winter.
再说一次，本质上都是同一件事。我真的认为，如今财政支出、赤字支出占 GDP 的比例已达到史无前例的高位（除去更早以前的时期）。而且这还没把对绿色经济的额外投入、全球重新军事化、《通胀削减法案》(IRA)、《芯片法案》、欧洲融资、去冬的能源危机成本，以及天晓得今年冬天要花多少钱都算进去。
There's a lot of fiscal stimulus taking place out there. And the largest and COVID still running through. The large asset QE is still running through. So we're still living on that, and that's really strong. And of course, that drives everything, including business results. So businesses feel pretty good because they look at their current results, they're not so bad. But those things change. And we don't know what the full effect of all these things are going to be 12 or 18 months from now.
外部环境中存在大量财政刺激，规模空前，新冠疫情的影响也仍在持续，大规模资产购买(QE)依然在进行。我们仍在依赖这些刺激力量，它们的作用非常强劲，也推动了一切，包括企业业绩。因此企业当前感觉良好，因为眼下的业绩并不差。但情况会变化，我们不知道 12 到 18 个月后这一切的综合影响将会怎样。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess maybe talk at a high level how you think the banking industry performed against that backdrop. Obviously, March was this many crisis you dealt with, we have this potential for a high interest rate environment to stick with us for a bit. You talked about potential CRE losses, which I know is a major concern for JPMorgan, but could obviously weigh on others?
能否从宏观层面谈谈银行业在这种背景下的表现？显然，今年三月出现了一场“小型危机”，我们可能还要在高利率环境中停留一段时间。您提到潜在的商用地产(CRE)损失，这对摩根大通是重大关切，显然也可能拖累其他银行，对吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
The banking industry is quite strong, and we call it mini crisis because the only so many banks were offside on interest rate exposure and wish everyone knew, by the way, it wasn't Plainsight, HTM and incented by regulations to put your money in HTM, less capital requirement, didn't have the market-to-market.
银行业整体相当稳健。之所以称其为“小型危机”，是因为只有少数银行在利率敞口上站错了边。顺便说一句，这并非显而易见——它涉及持有至到期(HTM)资产，监管鼓励把资金投到 HTM 里，资本要求更低，也无需按市值计价。
Of course, accounting is not the marketplace. The market makes its own decisions about what they really think about accounting. And accounting, it can be a fiction like what's the fiction between HTM and AFS and all that. I never particularly like HTM. Why would you be better off tying your own hands and what you can do with securities. I just never quite understood that concept.
当然，会计账面并不等同于市场。本质上，市场会自行决定如何看待账面数字。会计处理有时就是一种“虚构”，例如 HTM 与可供出售(AFS)资产之间的差别。我一直不太喜欢 HTM；把自己的手脚绑住、不去灵活操作证券，我始终不理解这种做法的好处。
But that crisis, what we didn't know was the runnable deposits. Runnable deposit is not the same thing, it's just uninsured. There are a lot of banks that uninsured deposits are quite sticky. And so you got to be -- we got to be a little more analytical about that. I hope we don't overdo things and regulations around that, too.
然而在那场危机中，我们之前未曾充分认识到“可跑掉的存款”(runnable deposits)的问题。可跑掉并不等同于无保险存款，很多银行的无保险存款其实相当黏性。因此我们需要更细致地分析这一点，也希望监管不要对此反应过度。
But the thing about the banking crisis, and I would tell us about the economy in general is if rates go up, and I give a higher odds than other people. I think that the fiscal stimulus, QT, the change of flows around the world, there's a chance that rates go up, that if rates go up other 50 basis points, that will cause more issues with banks, more issues with real estate.
关于银行危机，我也想就整体经济说一句：如果利率上行——我认为这种概率比别人估计的更高——在财政刺激、量化紧缩(QT)以及全球资金流动变化的共同作用下，利率可能再上升 50 个基点，这将给银行和房地产带来更多问题。
And if you have that with the recession, yes, you're going to see a little bit more stress and strain in the system. And then the banking system, which I think is broadly sound. And a lot of these banks that you see are strained themselves today by buying back less stock, beefing up capital, reducing the duration in the AFS portfolios. But you will see that stress and strain elsewhere, too.
如果这又碰上衰退，系统就会出现更多压力。尽管我认为银行体系总体健康，但你可以看到许多银行已经通过减少回购、提高资本金、缩短 AFS 投资组合久期来自我收紧。不过，你也会在其他领域看到同样的压力。
That will be Warren Buffett's fame is tide going out. There's going to be a lot of people swimming naked. And so -- again, I -- as a risk manager, I look at that and you should be prepared for it. Every bank should be prepared for it, some won't be, but -- and so should other companies. There will be leveraged companies, possibly private credit, if that happens. And I'm not saying it's going to happen. We don't know -- I don't spend a lot of time guessing about outcomes of soft lending, medium recession, hard recession because nobody knows. I do think we should be prepared for the tails.
正如沃伦·巴菲特那句“退潮后才知道谁在裸泳”——到时会有很多人被揭穿。作为风险管理者，我对此保持警觉并做好准备。每家银行都应如此，尽管有些银行不会这样做，其他公司也应如此。如果退潮出现，杠杆较高的企业，甚至私募信贷可能会出问题。我并不是说这种情况一定会发生，也不想猜测软着陆、中度衰退或深度衰退的具体概率，因为没人说得准。但我们确实应该为极端情况做好准备。
And that's -- those are the tails we're kind of prepared for and I think other peoples should be, too.
这就是我们正在准备的“尾部风险”，我认为其他人也应当如此。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I usually don't start with capital, but given the Basel III and gain proposal came out late July, I'm sure you spent all summer.
我通常不会一开始就谈资本，但既然巴塞尔 III 以及相关盈利提案在七月下旬出台，我敢肯定你整个夏天都在忙这个。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes, we didn't say.
是的，我们没对此多说什么。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
1,100 pages worth?
有 1,100 页这么多？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
1,100 pages after 10 years I mean, honestly, like this has been a lot for too long, but.
花了 10 年写出 1,100 页，说实话，这事情拖得实在太久了。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Maybe at a high level, what were your main takeaways?
能否从宏观层面谈谈您的主要体会？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Let me count the ways. Hugely disappointing for the following reasons. So think of strategically, what I would love to know what they really want to accomplish. If they want the mortgage business outside of banking, they should say it, raise the capital, put operational work against it and push it out. I think they don't do that, just tell us not do any mortgage anymore.
让我细数一下，令我极其失望，原因如下。先从战略层面说，我想知道他们究竟想实现什么目标。如果他们想把按揭业务移出银行体系，就该直说：增加资本、投入运营资源、把业务剥离出去。如果他们不想这样做，那就直接告诉我们别再碰按揭业务。
If they want a private credit leverage lending out of the system, that's fine. But I think what is it they actually want? Do they want banks never to fail? I never thought that was the goal. But if they want things never to fail, this isn't going to do it, we should do something else.
如果他们想把私募杠杆贷款赶出体系，也可以。但他们到底想要什么？他们想让银行永不倒闭吗？我从没认为这是目标。如果真想让任何机构都不倒闭，这套方案也做不到，得另想办法。
Do they look at other alternatives. Did they actually learn the right lessons from Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic? Like, the -- like I think they have enough authority to tell banks, you could take this much interested exposure and not that. And that were to solve some of these problems right there.
他们是否考虑过其它方案？他们真的从硅谷银行和第一共和的事件吸取了正确教训吗？监管本来就有权告诉银行：利率敞口只能做到多少、不能超过多少，那就能直接解决部分问题。
So it was never a capital problem. And so I'm thinking -- what does they want? They look at comprehensively. I would love to know the cost benefits to society of pushing some of these things out. I look at this major issue about -- we've gone from in America in 1996, 7,300 public companies to something like 4,500 today. So it should have gone from 7,300 to 14,000 with the growth of the economy and growth. Private equity has gone from 1,000 to 10,000. Why is that? Are we better off by having less transparent private markets than public markets.
所以根本不是资本不足的问题。我想知道——他们要的是什么？如果要整体评估，我想了解把部分业务推到银行体系外对社会的成本与效益。还有一个大问题：1996 年美国有 7,300 家上市公司，现在只剩约 4,500 家；按经济增速来看，本应从 7,300 增至 14,000 家。私募基金却从 1,000 家增至 10,000 家。为什么？让市场变得更不透明、偏向私募市场真的更好吗？
这个趋势可能正在扭转。
So I think there's a whole bunch of strategic issues they should have asked, thought, analyzed, shared some of the cost benefits, shared some of their thinking about all that kind of stuff. Then there's what I consider more tactical? Like I've always thought G-SIFI is an asinine calculation. Operational risk is even more asinine.
他们本该提出并思考大量战略问题，做深入分析，公开成本收益、分享思考逻辑。再说更战术层面的：我一直觉得 G-SIFI 的算法很荒唐，运营风险资本要求更荒唐。
Do you like diversification? I think diversification is a wonderful thing. But G-SIFI, some -- some not the stress testing because that actually incorporates, and operational risk is anti-diversification. And operational risk are all revenues equally bad, really -- like honestly, I look at that thing, who did that, what person and what Ivory Tower thinks that, that is a rational thing to do.
你赞同分散化吗？我认为分散化很棒。但 G-SIFI 中有些部分——并非压力测试那块——加上运营风险资本要求，恰恰与分散化背道而驰。在运营风险框架里，所有收入好像都同样“有害”。说真的，我不懂是谁、哪个象牙塔中的人觉得这套做法是理性的。
And then I would prefer more transparency, not like on the miles. I mean no one is going to try to game it, but a little more transparent with the process they went through. Did all the governors have a point of view. I'd like to know the other governments think. I want to know and go back to strategic. I'd like to know why on the international side, if you look at the numbers, so take Barclays and us, you may not know this yet, but -- no, but we would have to hold 30% more capital than a European bank. Is that what they wanted? Is that good long-term. Why? Didn't we say we're going to have international just? What was the goddam point of Basel in the first place?
此外，我希望监管更透明一些，并不是要让人钻空子，而是让流程公开：所有理事都发表过意见吗？我想知道其他国家的监管怎么想。从战略角度看，为什么国际比较里——比如巴克莱和我们——我们得比一家欧洲银行多持有 30% 的资本？这是他们想要的吗？长远看好吗？为什么？不是说要保持国际一致性吗？巴塞尔协议最初到底是干嘛的？
And I look at all that, it's like, what is it we're actually trying to do? And so it's, by the way, 25, we think, like you said, the 1,000 pages, and we haven't been till the detail, but if you take it the way it is, basically, we think today is 30% more RWA. I don't know where they came with their 19. I just -- I'm missing that, and it's 25% more capital.
所有这一切让我困惑：我们到底想干什么？顺便说，关于那 1,000 多页的文件，我们还没细读，可按表面数字看，我们的风险加权资产要多 30%。我不知道他们怎么得出增加 19% 的结论，我完全看不到路径；同时资本要求高出 25%。
And the other -- so we will be forced to optimize in a million different ways. And the MPR probably won't be all the way there. But every single thing was put in the outlier, like G-SIFI was supposed to be adjusted by their own rules for the size of the global economy. It wasn't. It will be half what it is if they did that.
结果我们将被迫用上百万种方法去“优化”资产结构。最低资本比率(MPR)恐怕也达不到。他们把每个因素都推到极端值，比如按规则，G-SIFI 系数应随全球经济规模调整，但他们没做；如果真调整， G-SIFI 系数应降一半。
And so I don't mind the changes they didn't make, which actual did add a little bit of capital for us. I'd like to know why they didn't make the other adjustment. If that's the adjustment they should make, they should simply make it FSRT. So capital -- the FSRT, I'm not against proper capital but doesn't CCAR, G-SIFI, operation with capital, FSRT, all double account, the global market shock that's in CCAR. What do they try to do is I just -- all I want is fairness, transparency, openness and they students right for the United States of America. I'm not sure they did most of what I just said.
有些他们没做的调整，我倒不介意，这反而让我们少加了一点资本要求。但我想知道他们为啥不做其他必要调整。如果该调就调，把它写进 FSRT（压力资本缓冲）。我并不反对合理的资本要求，但 CCAR、G-SIFI、运营风险资本、FSRT 都在重复计算，CCAR 里还有全球市场冲击情景。 他们到底想干什么？我只想要公平、透明、开放，以及符合美国利益的规则。我不确定他们有没有做到我刚才说的大多数要求。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
A lot of follow-up.
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
后续问题很多。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
You can portal that, too, by the way. And the bank is quite upset, and that's also nothing. I'm not sure it's a great thing that we have this constant battles with regulators and as opposed to open thoughtful things. We used to have real conversations with regulators. There's none anymore in the United States. Like you're virtually none.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
顺便说一句，你也可以把那些资料传到门户上。银行方面对此相当恼火，不过这算不上什么。我不确定我们与监管机构持续打“拉锯战”而非进行坦诚、深思的讨论是否是件好事。过去我们曾与监管者进行真正的对话，如今在美国几乎没有了，几乎完全没有。
This doubles just all from up top, imposed down below and then you got to -- of course, we simply have to take it because they're judged jury and hang them in, and that is what it is. JPMorgan will adjust, will survive, we'll do fine. It will have unintended consequences that they may not like including one day, I think you're going to see much more volatility in the market like you saw in COVID in February 2019, and they won't realize that they actually close that.
这一切完全是自上而下的双重叠加，由上而下强行推行，我们当然只能接受，因为他们既是法官、也是陪审团，更是行刑人——事实就是如此。摩根大通会调整、会生存，我们会应对得很好。但此举将带来他们可能不喜欢的意外后果——有朝一日，你们会看到市场出现比 2019 年 2 月新冠时期更大的波动，而他们不会意识到是自己造成了这一切。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
I guess are there any lines of business you feel need to cut back on or get out completely in light above that?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
鉴于上述情况，是否有任何业务线您认为需要缩减甚至完全退出？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I'm not going to sit and tell you what a lines of business. But yes, we might. We -- you have -- every one of us will have to optimize different products, services, clients, locations. But -- I mean give us time. We got to go through all the rules in detail. They're probably going to clarify with some are -- some are not completely clear yet, and then we'll figure it out.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我不会在这里细数哪些业务线，但确实可能需要调整。我们每家银行都必须在产品、服务、客户、地域等方面做优化。不过——给我们点时间，我们要把所有规则逐条研究清楚。有些地方监管可能还会进一步澄清，目前并非全部明确，之后我们再决定。
Look, all these banks are smart people. And it also, in my view, causes a little bit of this herd thing where the Federal Reserves have a little humility. They're the ones who told the world rates aren't going up. And it wasn't the Federal Reserve in general, is each one of them independently. In fact was each central bank. So if I would then I have a little more humility over stuff like this.
看看，这些银行的人都很聪明。与此同时，在我看来，这也造成了一种“羊群效应”，美联储应该保持一点谦逊。正是他们告诉全世界利率不会上升——并非整体美联储，而是每位官员、每家央行都这么说。如果我是他们，对这种问题我会更加谦虚。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
So you've been pretty open with your views with us today. I suspect over the last month or so, you've expressed these views with other the regulators?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
今天您对我们非常坦诚。我猜过去一个月您也向其他监管机构表达了这些观点？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I was on vacation.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我一直在度假。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
So you haven't done that?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
所以您没有这样做？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Trying to de aggravate myself from this kind of things like. I want them to do the right thing. It's just clear to me that they didn't. And now we have to go through all these rigor work NPRs. Do you think the NPRs going to make a s\*\*\* of difference. It's my academics argue with their academics, and they could do what they want anyway. That's all that's going to happen.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我试着让自己远离这种烦心事。我希望他们做正确的事，但显然他们没有。而现在我们得处理这些繁琐的征求意见稿(NPR)。你觉得 NPR 会有半点作用吗？就是我的专家跟他们的专家吵，结果他们想怎么定就怎么定，就这么回事。
Unless some other Fed governors or other people decide to get deeply involved and try to do what's right and fair, and they think about what's good for the country, not just -- can they stop themselves ever from being blamed for a bank failure.
除非其他美联储理事或相关人士决定深入介入，真正做正确、公平的事，并从国家利益而不仅仅是“如何避免被追责”的角度考虑问题。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
All right. So I guess I won't ask the question, where do you think you have the greatest chance to make progress?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
好吧，那我就不问“您认为在哪些方面最有可能取得进展”了。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I expect no real progress.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我不指望会有实质性进展。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
I guess, in that backdrop...
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
那么，在这样的背景下……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Unless some of these other regulators get tougher and decide they should be pushed around by 1 or 2 people in the Federal Reserve.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
除非其他监管者态度更强硬，不再任由美联储一两个人左右。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So I guess if we take what you said RWA is up 30%. Now was that for JPMorgan, you were talking about \[indiscernible]?
如果按照您所说，风险加权资产（RWA）上升了 30%，那是针对摩根大通，还是在谈其他情况？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
That's JPMorgan.
那是针对摩根大通。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
RWA is up 30%...
RWA 上升 30%……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
But you — I don't know — and my rough is roughly the same. RWA and CET1 have done slightly differently in this thing because CCAR is absolute dollars. And so it's slightly different. That's why one is 30, one is 25.
不过……我不确定……我的粗略估计也差不多。RWA 和 CET1 的变化略有不同，因为 CCAR 以绝对金额衡量，所以结果有些差异。这就是为什么一个增幅是 30%，另一个是 25%。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So I guess you've talked about this 13.5%?
您提到过 13.5% 这一数字？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
But all of this, honestly, like, say, if you look at — they say, do they want banks ever be investable again. I — if I look at my money because I'm not going to sell my stock and stuff like that. I think we would to navigate it. I wouldn't be a big buyer of banks.
老实说，关键问题是：他们到底想不想让银行再次具有投资价值？如果是我自己的钱——我不会抛售手中的股票——我得设法应对，但我不会大举买入银行股。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
All right. So let's unpack that. So RWA is up 30%...
好吧，让我们拆开来看。RWA 上升 30%……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Look, I'd be no better than equal way, whatever you call it.
听着，我至多持平配置，怎么称呼都行。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So RWA is up 30%. I assume you keep a 13.5% CET1 ratio, your 17% ROE target goes — ROTC target goes to 14%.
如果 RWA 增 30%，且维持 13.5% 的 CET1 比率，那么 17% 的股本回报率 (ROE) 目标就会降至 14% 的有形资本回报率 (ROTC)，对吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Quick. Yes.
快速回答：是的。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So I guess...
那么……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I noticed.
我注意到了。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So I guess a couple of things. So is 13.5% the right number? Or could that come down? Or what could you do to kind of work around that?
我有几点想问：13.5% 是合适的水平吗？能否降一点？或者你们可以采取什么措施来应对？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Well, I first say is that we're retaining more capital because we don't wait the end of this thing to phase all in. We can still buy back some stock, approximately the rate we're doing it today and get there by the end of 2024, the new rules. Obviously, you just did a calculation, the MPR may change a little bit. But I agree that's the right place to start. And then we will optimize differently. So we will get back some of that, maybe not all of that.
首先，我们会多留存资本，而不是等过渡期结束再一次性到位。我们仍能按当前差不多的速度回购股票，并在 2024 年底前满足新规。没错，最低资本比率（MPR）可能略有变化，但 13.5% 是合适的起点。随后我们会通过优化来回补部分收益，但可能无法全部收回。
I also think that the short run, like the next couple of years is very different than you look at the long run, I think of American banks have to hold 30% more than competitors around the world. That is a huge negative over a long period of time. It may not be a negative over a short period of time because of the position we all built up.
我还认为，短期（未来几年）和长期情况截然不同。美国银行若长期需比全球竞争对手多持有 30% 资本，这是巨大劣势；短期内或许影响不大，因为过去积累的实力仍在。
But basically, it means — what it should mean is I'm going to have certain things should not be held in the banking system. That's what it means. Almost all loans are bad. Just listen, almost all loans are bad. And the other thing we have to look at is what does it mean for the consumer, like small businesses, mortgages, middle-market loans, and it will cost more in credit.
但根本上，这意味着某些资产不该留在银行体系内。换句话说，几乎所有贷款都“不好”。请注意，几乎所有贷款都“不好”。我们还得考虑对消费者的影响，比如小企业、房贷、中型企业贷款——它们的融资成本都会上升。
And I haven't done the economic analysis about what that cost is on growth for America and stuff like that. So — but we'll optimize. We'll get back some of that. Some of it, like I said, will have unintended consequences. It may cause more concentration in banking by client. So I can envision to a bunch of things where it's going to happen is that the big guys will get more of it for a whole bunch of different reasons, not less of it, even though I just said loans could be bad because you've got to earn it back elsewhere.
我还没做过对美国经济增长成本的具体测算。不过我们会继续优化，回收部分收益。正如我说的，这将产生意想不到的后果，可能导致客户层面出现更高的银行集中度。我可以预见，多种因素会使“大型银行”分得更大份额，而不是更小——尽管我刚说贷款业务的利润可能变差，但你得在别处把利润赚回来。
So most people wouldn't make loans to be in the loan business anymore.
因此，大多数人将不再纯粹为了“做贷款”而放贷。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
Why don't we put up the next ARS question. So I'm not going to get up \[indiscernible] that easily, Jamie. But -- so 17% goes to 14%, then there's minification, optimization, change in business practice, potential market share gains, reprice. What do you think that 17% number?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
何不把下一个 ARS 问题放到屏幕上？詹米，我可不会那么轻易放过你。所以，从 17% 降到 14%，然后是缩减、优化、业务实践改变、潜在市场份额提升、重新定价。你怎么看 17% 这个数字？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I really don't know. 17% is pretty good. So I'm not -- it's like my own people, they say 17, we've done it a couple of years. I did these numbers myself because people question these things. We -- I reused, I think, in our proxy, 12 peers. And how many years, over the last 10 years, did a company earn over 18% even once -- of those 120 years.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我真不知道。17% 已经相当不错。我自己团队也说 17%，我们连续几年做到这一水平。这些数字是我亲自算的，因为总有人质疑。我们在委托书里比较了 12 家同行。在过去 10 年、共 120 个年度里，有多少次公司哪怕一年盈利超过 18%？
If I remember correctly, it was 5% or 6%, and we were half of that or something. And how many earn below 6% in those years? It was 30 or 40x. And so if you can -- if we could earn 17% for the rest of my life, I would take that in a second. I'd push that button right now and retire. I mean -- and that 17% would probably be 50 years if someone here can do the numbers, we're probably be half of the global GDP.
如果没记错，大约只有 5% 或 6%，我们占其中一半左右。而盈利低于 6% 的次数呢？有三四十次。所以如果我们余生都能赚 17%，我会立刻按下按钮退休。要是能算出来，维持 17% 五十年，我们的规模恐怕能占全球 GDP 的一半。
So then, so if that's a good number. And if it's a little bit less, we can deal with that. So -- but we -- Jeremy, when we -- obviously, we're doing a lot of work now. When we do our quarter, we'll probably give a little bit of update when we think about it. But it's not over yet. People -- the NPL tends to change. I don't think it's going to change a lot, but it will tend to change a little bit.
因此，如果 17% 是好数字，即便稍低些也没问题。杰瑞米，现在我们正做大量工作，季报时大概会有更新。但事情还没完。不良贷款率会变动，我认为幅度不会大，但多少会有些变化。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
I just saw on the on screen, though, but the audience was roughly 50%, 15% and then 25% each 14 and 16.
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
我刚在屏幕上看到，观众大约 50% 选 15%，14% 和 16% 各占 25%。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I'm not going to target 14%. You can take that off the table, okay?
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我不会把目标定在 14%，这点可以排除。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
Okay. We'll take mid-teens plus. I guess also, we didn't talk about the new G-SIB rules. But with the proposed changes, it seems the practice G-SIB management will be harder to achieve. It seems like you've kind of had this upward trajectory there. Any kind of increased ability to manage that more effectively?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
好，那我们就取十几以上。另一个问题——我们还没谈新的 G-SIB 规则。按提案来看，实际管理 G-SIB 得分会更难。你们的得分似乎一直往上走，是否有更高效的管理能力？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
They're the same thing. We take every one of these things, and you're going to manage it down to the product level, the regional level, and the client level. So we're going to do our homework in each one, including G-SIFI, operational risk capital.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
本质上一回事。我们把每项指标都拆到产品、地区、客户层面来管理。每项都要做功课，包括 G-SIFI 和运营风险资本。
So operational risk capital, and I don't know the answers yet, will affect mortgages, which is already a s\*\*\*\*\* business. And is that what they really want to do. So I don't know. And then like you said, it comes to optimization, whatever it is, if we can earn different types of revenues in that client or that product, something like that, you may be able to make up for some of it.
至于运营风险资本，我还不清楚答案，但它会影响抵押贷款——那本来就是个烂生意。这真是他们想要的吗？我不确定。正如你说的，接下来就是优化：如果我们能在某个客户或产品上赚取不同类型的收入，也许能弥补部分影响。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
Got it. And then I guess before moving on.
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
明白了，然后在继续之前……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
But I think they did 2 right things in G-SIFI, like the bucket is 10 basis points and the average has done slightly differently. Even though -- believe it or not, that's worse for us because it takes our 4.5% up a little bit.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
不过我认为他们在 G-SIFI 上做了两件正确的事：把桶宽定为 10 个基点，平均值计算方式也略作调整。尽管信不信由你，这对我们反而更糟，因为把我们的 4.5% 又往上推了一点。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
And then in next month, the SCB actually falls from 4% to 2.9%, I guess, against the new Basel reform?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
下个月 SCB 实际上将从 4% 降到 2.9%，这是不是与新的巴塞尔改革有关？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
I'm not sure it is going up to 4% should have ever happened, and it shows you about SEB. Again, that was never meant to be a regulatory capital regime. Why it's being added on top of as capital is going to beyond me at this point? And also, I think having that kind of think up or down 1% in a year, so it was not a good idea. And then maybe where they got to that 19% number, they took credit for that in the 19% number, which to me wouldn't -- they've have been completely honest.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
我不确定当初把它升到 4% 是否合理，这也说明了 SEB 的问题。它本来就不是监管资本框架，为什么要再叠加到资本之上，我到现在也想不通。而且一年里上下 1% 这种做法并不好。至于 19% 那个数字，他们可能把这一点功劳算了进去，但在我看来并不完全诚实。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
And I guess could buy back share repurchase continue or that goes on hold until we figure this all out?
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
那么，股票回购会继续，还是要等一切弄清楚？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Are we -- is anyone here from JPmorgan Investor Relations. No, I mean we are buying back stock at a lower level. That can continue all the way to the end of '24, and we can meet our new capital requirements. So it will be less than you might otherwise have done. But right now, I'd rather wait and see. I'm also quite cautious in fiction getting about the environment, more cautious than other people. I think there's more potential odds of an accident of some sort than other people think.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
是不是有摩根大通投资者关系部的人在？没有。我们目前以较低水平回购股票，这种力度可以持续到 2024 年底，并且仍能满足新的资本要求。所以回购量会比以前少。但眼下我更愿意观望。我对宏观环境比别人更谨慎，认为发生某种意外的概率比多数人预想的要高。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess, maybe we can shift gears maybe to the business against that. And maybe just start on the top of the house and just net interest income, just your kind of macro thoughts in terms of loan growth, credit cards has been strong. Most other areas have been subdued, economy is slowing, RW amortization becomes top of mind. Just kind of what's your outlook for here.
我想我们或许可以转换一下话题，聚焦业务层面。先从集团整体谈起，关于净利息收入，请讲讲您的宏观看法：贷款增长、信用卡业务强劲，其余大多数领域较为低迷，经济放缓，风险加权摊销问题日益受关注。您对此有何展望？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes. I don't worry -- loan growth is always an output. It's not a goal. We don't look for it. So credit card is going up again. It's mostly normalized, our revolvers go up. and revolving there is notion that revolvers are higher they've ever been, not really true. It's actually just the economy to size the average revolver balance is still lower than pre-COVID even though we're back at the number of total revolvers before.
是的。我并不担心——贷款增长始终是结果，而非目标，我们不会刻意追求。信用卡再次上升，基本已回归常态，循环贷款余额在增加。有人说循环贷款余额创下历史新高，但并非如此；这只是经济规模扩大所致，平均循环贷款余额仍低于疫情前水平，尽管循环账户数量已恢复至疫情前。
The other loan areas are although real estate down a little bit, some levelizing, middle market down a little bit, some because they used public market -- the public markets opened up, so a bunch of industries that just sold bonds and paid-up loans and stuff like that, which is completely normal.
其他贷款领域方面，房地产略有下降后趋于平稳；中端市场贷款也略降，部分原因是它们改用公开市场——公开市场重新开放，一些行业发行债券、偿还贷款等，这完全正常。
And NII, I think we've given you numbers as they haven't really changed that much, you have them, right? Whatever they are, they're the same as they were before. But I caution you, we're still over-earning in that number. And we probably do a little bit better than we told you, but think of quarter-by-quarter because the uncertainties are so large competition, the ability to move money, QT, QT has been all over the place, like first, it happened and then when the bank failures happen, they basically reversed some of it.
至于净利息收入（NII），我们已经给过你们数字，几乎没有太大变化，你们应该都掌握。无论是多少，与之前相同。但我要提醒，我们在这项指标上仍处于超额盈利状态，我们最终可能比此前预期稍好一些，但请按季度看，因为不确定性极大——竞争、资金流动灵活性、量化紧缩（QT）等。QT 过程波动很大：刚开始实施，后来银行倒闭时又部分逆转。
The Fed sold a lot of T bonds. A lot of it came out of RRP, not at a bank deposits, but bank deposits are going to come down with QT. At one point, you'll see reduction in deposits and there'll be more competition. A lot of banks don't need the money, so they haven't been competing. But if you look at bank competition, it's very regional. And it's very bank specific. This bank wanted money. There's banks doing CDs. I just think what's going to happen with NII, we know it's going to come down to a different level. We just don't know when. And I don't want to predict one.
美联储出售了大量国债，其中不少来源于隔夜逆回购（RRP）而非银行存款，但随着 QT 推进，银行存款将会下降。某个时点你会看到存款减少、竞争加剧。许多银行不缺资金，因此此前并未积极竞争。但如果观察存款竞争，它非常地区化，也非常银行特定：这家银行需要资金，那些银行在发定存。我认为净利息收入会降至另一水平，只是我们不知道何时，也不愿预测。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I still got to ask a follow-up.
我还是得追问一下。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
We still can earn good money. It isn't like -- we'll just giving back to over earning part.
我们仍然可以赚到不错的钱，只是把超额盈利部分让出来而已。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
You said a little better. So your guidance was \$87 billion for 2023. So you're saying a little bit better than that?
您说会“稍好一些”。你们对 2023 年的指引是 870 亿美元，所以意思是会比这稍好？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Could be a little better than that, yes.
可能会比那稍好一些，是的。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
And then you've also talked about the mid-\$70 billion number at some point in the future. Although I think when you gave that number that was before First Republic, I just...
此外，您也曾提到未来某时会降至 750 亿美元中段，不过我记得您给出那个数字是在收购第一共和之前，我只是……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I think, yes, that's before First Republic, yes.
我想，是的，那是在第一共和之前。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess do you want to opine on that figure?
那您愿意就那个数字发表看法吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I'll let Jeremy do that when he does quarterly earnings. We'll give you an update, but I still think there's the over-earning component. And I think I'm quite cautious about that, too.
等杰里米做季度财报时会说明，我们会更新。不过我仍认为存在超额盈利部分，对此我也相当谨慎。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess you touched on deposits in terms of dealing with QT and money fund competition paid as kind of been, I think, lower than expected at JPMorgan, so far? I guess your mid-70s number implies a catch up in here. Just maybe talk to in terms of just how you manage the balance sheet backed up.
关于存款——在应对 QT 和货币基金竞争方面，迄今摩根大通的付息似乎低于预期？我想你们提到的 750 亿中段数字暗示这块会出现回补。能否谈谈你们如何调整资产负债表以应对？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
So we -- I hate this deposit beta number because it includes small business, large corporations, it's all over the place. We have a huge payments business. I would say it's been what you would expect in everything other than consumer, which is the bulk of it. So large corporations and businesses so it can move money pretty actively, we had to compete for that.
关于存款贝塔指标，我非常反感这个数字，因为它把小企业和大型企业全都混在一起，结果乱成一团。我们拥有庞大的支付业务。除了占大头的零售存款外，其他各项表现都在预期范围内。大型企业和公司客户资金调度非常活跃，我们必须为此展开竞争。
It’s the consumer side where JPMorgan isn’t as competitive as other banks. We’re retaining a lot of the deposits anyway because we have other programs or stuff like that, but that’s the one point you’re going to have to increase it. And even aside in my own company, Jen and Marianne will say x, I’ll say y. Jeremy will say z. We don’t know. I don’t ever care that much. It is what it is.
在零售端，摩根大通的竞争力不及其他银行。尽管我们凭借其他计划仍保留了大量存款，但零售这一块确实需要再加把劲。甚至在公司内部，珍和玛丽安会提方案 X，我提方案 Y，杰里米提方案 Z——我们也弄不清。我并不太在意，事情就是如此。
It will be what it is, we’re still going to earn money. I just want to acknowledge the over earning part. Right now, we’re retaining more of NII we would expect to, had there been a normal thing in that. I think every bank is in a different position what they need or don’t need.
结果怎样就怎样，我们照样能赚钱。我只是想说明目前的超额收益情况。眼下我们保留的净利息收入高于正常水平下的预期。我认为每家银行的资金需求状况都不相同。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Got it. And then maybe shifting gears to trading and investment banking. I have to get the \[indiscernible] before a how is the quarter going question out of the way.
明白了。接下来换个话题谈谈交易和投行业务。在问“本季度表现如何”之前，我得先把那个含糊其辞的问题提出来。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I always hate this one, too. So -- because really, like it’s not over yet, no one knows. Quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, down 1% or 2% in trading. And I think it’s something like that in Investment Banking. Pipeline is strong, but I always remind people, I never talk about pipelines. You know why? Pipelines is like open and close. They don’t really tell you what’s going to happen for equity or certain types of debt or stuff like the M\&A. There’s a lot of people talking a lot of it, \[indiscernible] stuff taking place, markets are open.
我也最讨厌被问这种问题，因为季度还没结束，没人知道确切情况。按季、按年比较，交易收入下降了 1%–2%；投行业务大概也是类似水平。业务管道很强，但我总提醒大家，我从不谈管道。为什么？因为管道随时开关，无法真正说明股票、某些债务或并购等业务会怎样。现在很多人在讨论，市场保持开放，交易在进行。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
The trading?
交易业务？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Trading is doing fine.
交易业务表现不错。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So down 1% or 2% year-over-year.
所以同比下降 1%–2%？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I think that’s what I said.
我想我是这么说的。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
And Investment Banking...
那投行业务呢……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I’m sure my own people are going to correct me on that. I think roughly equivalent to last quarter, something like that.
我相信团队稍后会纠正我。我觉得大致与上一季度持平，差不多吧。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Flattish?
持平？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes.
是的。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Sequentially? These are the questions I get asked, My phone is going to start buzzing if I don’t get clarity.
环比持平吗？这些都是别人要我问的，如果得不到明确答案，我的手机就要一直震个不停。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
That’s the Momenta hedge fund guys. Those of us who build businesses or job to serve clients through thick or thin regardless of whether we’re going to earn our fair share of our clients’ revenues over time.
那是 Momenta 对冲基金的家伙们。对于我们这些经营业务的人来说，我们的职责是无论顺境逆境都要服务客户，而不是只考虑能否长期拿到客户收入中的那份应得收益。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So we could pull up and talk big picture if you prefer. But if you look at aggregate, the big 5 U.S.-based trading banks, this will likely be the fourth straight year trading revenues in the \$100 billion to \$110 billion band. That number used to be in the \$70 billion, \$80 billion band, kind of pre-pandemic. Maybe the medium term or longer term, what do you think is the right number?
如果你愿意，我们可以从宏观角度来谈一谈。不过从整体来看，美国五大交易型银行今年很可能连续第四年将交易收入维持在 1,000 亿至 1,100 亿美元区间。而在疫情前，这一数字通常只有 700 亿至 800 亿美元。站在中长期视角，你认为比较合理的区间应是多少？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes. I think that -- and that \$70 billion to \$80 billion was down for a much bigger number before that. So you did have a huge over a long period of time, down -- that coming down, some derivatives, some CLOs, some CMBS. A lot of stuff went away. I think the -- in my own view is a little low. This is more normal.
的确。值得注意的是，700 亿到 800 亿美元这一水平其实是更早之前更高峰值回落后的结果。多年来，衍生品、CLO、CMBS 等业务大幅收缩，交易收入大幅下滑。我个人认为 700 亿到 800 亿有些偏低，现在 1,000 亿上下更接近“常态”。
Here, it can grow from here. Now but it's trench warfare. We have to compete with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley and Bank of America and Wells and Citi. But from here, that wallet may very well grow because remember, assets of the world grow and products grow and investments grow, international flows grow. So I think it's a possible it grows from here. If you have a recession, it's one thing, but if you have growth, it's another thing so -- but I mean we hope to eke out share gains. That to me is the most important over time.
未来依然可能再增长。不过这是一场堑壕战，我们得与高盛、摩根士丹利、美国银行、富国和花旗激烈竞争。全球资产规模在扩大，产品和投资在增长，跨国资金流也在增加，因此交易“钱包”有望继续做大。若遇衰退则另当别论，若经济扩张则空间更大。长期来看，我们争取逐步提升市场份额，这才是最关键的。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
And then you mentioned pipelines on the Investment Banking front, this clearly, post-Labor Day, it feels like there's some big IPOs in the market. DCM issuance was very active last week. M\&A feels like it's coming back in terms of talk to kind of green shoots on what you're seeing there?
您刚才提到投行业务管道。显然，劳动节后市场出现了一些大型 IPO，过去一周债券资本市场（DCM）发行也非常活跃，M\&A 讨论似乎再度升温。您看到哪些复苏迹象？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
And again, you're just guessing the weather here. But DCM is a steady amount because people be financed. Sometimes CFO sentiment, they wait because they think rates are too high or too low. I think they make a mistake if they do that. I wouldn't spend too much time speculating about what you're going to do.
说到底，这跟猜天气差不多。DCM 发行总体保持稳定，因为企业总要融资。有时 CFO 觉得利率高或低而选择观望，我认为那是误判。我不会把时间都花在揣测他们会怎么做上。
The DCM component, which is episodic is M\&A related. So that will follow more M\&A. And a lot of talk taking place whether they get finished or not, I don't know. And ECM, you saw -- to give you some numbers, I think in 2021, 400 IPOs. 2022, 40. This year, I don't know if somebody remember 70, 80 so far this year. It's open. But the open is much more for companies earning money, more legitimate stuff like that.
DCM 中与并购相关的“事件型”发行要看 M\&A 活动本身能否落地。目前讨论很多，能否成行还未知。至于 ECM：2021 年大约有 400 桩 IPO，2022 年只有 40 桩，今年到目前大概 70-80 桩，市场已重新打开，但更青睐真正盈利、基本面扎实的公司。
When I hear that -- and more people are having those conversations, companies going public that it's going to be a down round, but grow up on that one, too. It's not a down round. The last one was overpriced. And so yes, ECM is open. That can stay open until it doesn't.
有人说，“新上市公司都是下轮融资估值缩水”，其实应该长点心眼——并不是下轮估值降低，而是上一轮估值本来就虚高。现在 ECM 之门敞开，但也可能随时关闭。
And that's the most -- that's the pipeline like an accordion, it opens and closes over time. And when it opens up and values are pretty good, which they are today, and it closes when people think they can get a much better thing if they wait. My advice to a company, you can go public, you want to go public, you need to go public, don't wait too long. There's no -- I wouldn't -- I think the uncertainties out in front of us is still very large and very dangerous.
投行业务管道就像手风琴，时而张开、时而收拢。现在估值条件不错，窗口打开；一旦市场预期更高估值，窗口就会合上。我的建议是：如果公司可以上市、想上市、需要上市，就别等太久。眼前的不确定性仍很大且危险。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Because, again, that expenses in the first half of the year, \$40.3 billion, even if adjusting for First Republic, you're kind of running better than your \$84.5 billion guide?
再说回成本，上半年支出 403 亿美元，即便扣除第一共和的影响，也还是好于你们 845 亿美元的全年指引？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
It's rough, yes. When you say better, that bounces around a little bit, it's roughly that maybe a teeny bit better but yes.
大致如此。“好于”这个说法可能有些波动，但整体上确实略好一些。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
But. I asked -- we had Daniel here last year, I asked a similar question.
不过，去年丹尼尔在此时我也问过类似问题。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Next year, he said something like that.
他当时说“明年差不多也是这样”。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Well, I pointed -- he ended up beating last year by \$1 billion. So are you beat it -- I mean.
嗯，我想说——他去年最终超出目标 10 亿美元。所以你们今年也能超过吗——我的意思是？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I don't know.
我不知道。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
You don't know?
你不知道？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I like spending money. You know that, right?
我喜欢花钱，你知道的，对吧？
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Yes.
是的。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
No, I think what we've guided to before is still where we are today. But I also caution people here, we are a company that's not afraid about spending more if we think it is good for the long-term shareholder. So I would separate expenses into waste cutting, like BS, B\*\*\*\*\*\*\*, meaning too much, reporting if you don't read and then investments.
不，我认为我们之前给出的指引目前仍然适用。但我要提醒大家，如果我们认为有利于长期股东收益，我们不怕多花钱。因此我把费用分为两类：一类是应该削减的浪费，比如那些废话、瞎忙，没人看的过度报告；另一类是真正的投资。
To me, opening a good new branch or building new good new system or hiring bankers in the country with wealth management bankers or investment bankers where you know you're going to do okay. It just isn't okay in the 12-month time period. Accounting is a fiction. 12 months means nothing to me. So to me, I always look at what is this mean if that's going to pay you off, it's not expense, it's a good thing to do.
在我看来，开设一家优质新网点、建设一套优秀的新系统，或者在某个国家招聘财富管理或投行团队——这些都能带来正面回报。它们在 12 个月周期内也许不好看；会计只是虚构，12 个月对我毫无意义。我看的是这笔支出能否最终回报。如果能回报，那就不算费用，而是值得做的好事。
And also, by the way, bad revenues. Warren Buffett always says, he was in the insurance business, sometimes you're better off taking your sales force and paying them, but paying them to play golf not to do any more underwriting. That happens in loan business too. And the way we avoided a lot of problems and high levers always is we got priced out, we wouldn't do them. And those are good non-revenues.
另外还有“坏收入”。巴菲特常说，他做保险时，有时候不如把销售人员送去打高尔夫球，别再承保新单。贷款业务也一样。我们避免了许多高杠杆问题，因为当定价过低时我们就退出不做。这些放弃的收入其实是“好”的零收入。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess, as you kind of think about the '24 budgeting process, are there any particular areas you like you feel like needed investment and I think consensus has an \$88 billion number out there. Is that how you think about it?
那么，在制定 2024 年预算时，您认为有哪些领域需要重点投资？市场共识似乎是 880 亿美元左右，您是这么看的吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
That would be roughly equivalent, but the budgets are -- they're in phase right now and people are doing it. And I think we've laid out to guys a lot the investments, where we're adding technology, AI, branches, bankers and some of those investments, I can't tell you exactly what the returns, some of we know exactly what the returns are going to be. So -- and I think those plans will be roughly similar this year than they were last year, roughly. Something is up, something is down. The First Republic obviously changed a little bit where we have to deploy some of our resources.
大致相当，但预算还在编制阶段，团队正在处理。我们已经向各位说明了很多投资方向：技术、AI、网点、银行家等。有些项目的回报我们无法准确计算，有些则十分明确。我预计这些计划与去年大体相似，某些项目增加、某些减少。收购第一共和显然让我们对资源配置做出了一些调整。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess speaking of First Republic, can you maybe provide us an update in terms of employee customer retention, system integration. Any update to what -- looked to us as conservative assumptions around that deal?
说到第一共和，能否更新一下员工和客户留存、系统整合的进展？看起来你们当初的假设相当保守，现在有什么新情况吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes. They're still conservative assumption around that deal. And again, Jeremy will update you more, a little bit better on retention. I mean we've been losing a bunch of people, but they were almost all -- from the time we did it, they were almost -- had signed out beforehand. Better retention of access to we might do better retention of assets when we might have thought better retention of deposits that we might have thought. More business related than consumer related.
是的，我们对那笔交易的假设仍然保持保守。杰里米稍后会给出更多关于留存的细节。确实有员工流失，但几乎都是交易前就已提出离职的。资产留存率、存款留存率都比我们最初预想的更好，且更多体现在对公业务，而非零售业务。
We closed, I think, 20 of their branches like literally this week. So we are keeping 60, very happy with some of the stuff we found. Remember, very clean assets, very good clients, some very good bankers all across the board. They did some wonderful things in how they handle the clients. So we're trying to figure out how we can do that, enhance some of our offerings and stuff like that.
我记得就在本周，我们关闭了他们 20 家分行，因此保留 60 家。我们对发现的一些情况非常满意：资产质量很干净，客户质量很好，还有一批优秀的银行家。他们在客户服务方面做得非常出色，我们正考虑如何借鉴并提升自身服务。
Marianne and Jen have been doing a great job and the integration side is very basic. There's only so many apps, almost everything they did was outsourced. Some are going to be done through \[indiscernible], some are going to be done through actual conversion and stuff like that. But we've done this before and hopefully get them all done by the end of 2024. I'm sure we'll get them all done within 2024. I tell Jen and Marianne, we got one we've done in 9 months. So let's move on to the bureaucracy.
玛丽安和珍的工作做得很好，整合本身相对简单。他们的系统应用不多，几乎全部外包。部分将通过现有接口衔接，部分需要真正转换。我们以前也做过，希望在 2024 年底前全部完成。我确信 2024 年内可以搞定。我对珍和玛丽安说，我们曾在 9 个月内完成过一次整合，现在就别被官僚流程拖慢。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
This would be easier.
这应该更简单。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
It should be easier.
确实应该更简单。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
You touched a little bit in your instruction around credit quality, but you talked about credit card charge-offs being 2.6% this year, 3.5% normalized.
您在发言中稍微提到了资产质量，之前提到信用卡核销率今年是 2.6%，正常水平是 3.5%。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Didn't say that, but go ahead.
我可没那么说，不过请继续。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Well, not today, but July. Jeremy said it in July. Is that wrong?
也不是今天说的，是七月份杰里米说的。这不对吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
No, he did say that, yes.
没错，他确实那么说了。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
What would you say?
那您怎么说？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Jeremy is usually roughly accurate.
杰里米一般都相当准确。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess we've talked about this normalization and deterioration. Obviously going through this normalization process, any signs of deterioration?
关于正常化和劣化我们聊过不少。在这一正常化过程中，有出现明显恶化迹象吗？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Just very modest. I already mentioned, we look at like downgrades and upgrades in middle market, wholesale, more downgrades. You see -- you've all seen deterioration. We're not big in auto subprime, but you've clearly seen it there. It's explainable. So I don't think it -- it's nothing like the early indicators when subprime started going bad in the mortgage business in 2007. So there's a little bit -- a little bit in some leverage companies.
只有非常温和的迹象。我说过，我们关注中端市场和批发客户的评级上调与下调，目前下调多一些。你们都看到了某些疲软。我们在汽车次贷市场份额不大，但那里的恶化很明显，这也能解释得通。我不认为情况类似 2007 年房贷次贷出问题时的早期信号。也有少量杠杆公司出现一点问题。
So yes -- but again, if rates go up, and things get more recessionary, you are going to see more people out there with problems. Part of that will be completely normal, part of that will be worse than normal because of the rate side. People are just not ready or used to 6.5% rates.
所以是的——但如果利率继续上升、经济更趋衰退，问题客户将会增多。其中一部分是正常的周期现象，另一部分则因高利率而超出常态。人们还没准备好、也不习惯 6.5% 的利率。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
And then you mentioned it's kind of awkward.
您刚才还提到这有点尴尬。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
That's possible. And the other thing about the rate side, keep in mind is because people look at the treasuries, at 4.2% treasury, 10-year treasury, but credit spreads are low. You look at the -- okay, are you ready? Okay, I'll ask you a question. This is when I asked the people like, high yield, credit spreads today or what?
确实可能。另外谈到利率，要注意大家盯的是 4.2% 的十年期国债收益率，但信用利差很窄。来，准备好了吗？我问你个问题：今天高收益债的信用利差是多少？
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Not that wide.
没那么宽。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
I'm going to say like 450 or 500, something like that. What were they -- what's the worse they ever got before the great financial crisis?
大概 450 或 500 个基点左右。那么在金融危机前，最糟糕时是多少？
18%. And when I got to JPMorgan, I had them stress test 18%. They were, it'll never happen again. Well, maybe not, you're going to stress test 18%. What do they get to in the great financial crisis? 20%. At 20%, 1 or 2 people making markets in those bonds, you couldn't sell them anyway.
18%。我刚到摩根大通时，让团队用 18% 做压力测试。他们说，这种情况永远不可能再出现。我说，也许吧，但你得用 18% 压测。结果在金融危机里，利差冲到 20%。当利差 20% 时，市场里只有一两家机构愿意做市，你根本卖不掉债券。
这样的事情总会发生。
So it should happen, folks. And when spreads are very narrow and sentiment changes rapidly and governments have to sell, the United States, government is going to have to sell. Either they're going to sell net new bonds of \$2 billion -- \$2 trillion next year and roll over another \$5 trillion.
所以这种事是会发生的。当利差极窄、情绪急转而各国政府又必须发债时——美国明年要净增发 2 万亿美元国债，还要续发 5 万亿美元存量债。
Central Bank's -- governments are selling more bonds they ever sold before, Central banks would be selling more bonds and then some natural buyers like China and Japan would buy in less. It's not selling. And this is cautious side on all that stuff.
各国政府将发行创纪录的债券，央行也在抛售，同时像中国、日本这样的自然买家购买减少。需求不足，这就是我对这一切保持谨慎的原因。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess again...
我再说一遍……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Including credit spreads. I am -- I would not be a buyer of treasuries at 4.2%, nor will I buy credit spreads at these spread levels.
包括信用利差在内。我——我不会在 4.2% 的水平买入美国国债，也不会在目前的利差水平买入信用债。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
So against that backdrop, you've added over \$4 billion ACL reserve, you're kind of modeling a 5.8% unemployment, up 200 basis points from where the last sprint was, with the Avon of CECL. How much is the reserve building process already happened and how much?
在这种背景下，你们增加了超过 40 亿美元的 ACL 准备金，并假设失业率达到 5.8%，比上次情景高出 200 个基点，这是按 CECL 计算的结果。当前已计提了多少准备金，还需要计提多少？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
CECL is one of those huge errors and mistakes. So that 5.8% is we have scenario planning. And I don't do the scenario planning because like you said, I would be putting up reserves, okay? I can't. I am quite cautious about what's going to happen in credit stuff like that. I can't.
CECL 本身就是个巨大错误。5.8% 是我们的情景规划结果。我本人不做情景规划，因为正如你所说，那样我就得计提准备金，对吧？我不能那样。我对信贷未来走向非常谨慎，但我不能这样做。
Our top economists, always folks look at it and you do which the percent is going to get better, which percentage is going to be the same? Which percentage is going to be average? Which percentage it going to be severe average and those percentages average to the 5.8%, which means it's worse than it is today. And that means our reserve today can handle that 5.8%.
我们的首席经济学家团队会评估各种可能：哪部分会改善，哪部分保持不变，哪部分是平均水平，哪部分是严重情景。把这些权重加权后得出 5.8%，意味着情况比现在更差，但现有准备金可以覆盖 5.8% 的情景。
The \$4 billion that you had, I think, roughly \$2 billion simply relates to the increase in credit card standings. So it's not part of changing anything. And I portion, I've got the number relates to First Republic, close to \$1 billion. And the others, then we do idiosyncratic to upgrades, downgrades, those are name-by-name specific.
新增的 40 亿美元中，大约 20 亿只是因为信用卡余额增加，与其他变化无关；其中约 10 亿与第一共和有关。剩余部分则是针对个别客户的升级或下调，是逐笔具体评估的结果。
So it's hard to say that you can look at the environment today, you are going to add more reserves today. And it's hard to say the environment is going to be worse, but that's why I mostly don't like CECL, bounces over the place. And I remind people from March -- I mean, from January -- the beginning of the year 2020 to June, we put up \$15 billion. And then from June to the end of the year, we took down \$15 billion. So CECL is a hypothetical number. It's very unfortunate it's incorporated in accounting.
因此，仅凭今天的环境就判断是否要再计提准备金并不容易；也很难断定环境一定会更糟。这正是我不喜欢 CECL 的原因——波动太大。我提醒大家，2020 年初至 6 月我们计提了 150 亿美元准备金，随后又把 150 亿转回。CECL 只是个假设数字，很遗憾却被纳入会计准则。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
I guess maybe bringing kind of this whole discussion together. One of my takeaways from your Investor Day was I think these big 4 businesses.
也许我们把讨论收束一下。我在你们投资者日上的一个体会是，你们的四大核心业务……
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
The other thing about our company, this is important. It relates to all these regulators, too. We already run the company as if you running it through an average cycle, we're including a stress portion. We look at credit and reserving and underwriting and trading, we don't say things are great and we will put up more capital later.
还有一点很重要，也与监管者相关：我们经营公司时，始终假设处于“平均周期”，并包含压力情景。无论是信贷、拨备、承销还是交易，我们不会因为形势好就先放松，日后再补资本。
We say, no, we manage the company through the cycle so we can bank our clients in good times and bad times. An then we don't have to react in bad times, it sometimes you got to pull back dramatically. And so we're trying to incorporate all in how we run the company.
我们坚持以周期视角管理，以便在顺境逆境都能支持客户；这样到了逆境就无需剧烈收缩。我们努力把这些理念整体融入公司治理。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Putting that together, I guess looking out maybe what do you think are the 2 or 3 biggest growth opportunities in the next few years, payment, wealth management, international or you tell us?
综合来看，展望未来几年，您认为最大的两到三个增长机会在哪里？支付、财富管理、国际化，还是其他？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
It's literally, it's -- I think, in general, in Investment Banking, it's fighting to gain a little bit of share here and a little bit share -- it's area by area, country by country, segment by segment, industry group by industry group, FX in Asia, G10 here like it is, but we think we can fight and gain share. That's the goal.
说实话，我觉得投资银行业务总体上就是争取一点一滴的份额——按地区、按国家、按细分市场、按行业组、在亚洲的外汇、在 G10 市场等等逐项竞争，我们相信能够拼下来并提升份额，这就是目标。
Payments, we're doing quite well. Our share has gone up dramatically. We hope to do that. We have a bunch of new products and services coming. Custody, we think we've gained some share. We have new products and services coming. Asset Management, if you look at what we're doing, we're just building a private bank, and we're building Asset Management. Asset Management more is about products. So we've done a good job on certain new products and certain these active ETFs and stuff like that.
在支付领域，我们做得相当不错，市场份额大幅提升，未来还想继续扩大。我们将推出一系列新产品与服务。在托管业务上，我们认为也拿到了一些份额，同样有新品即将上线。至于资产管理，我们正打造私人银行并完善资管平台，这更侧重产品层面，比如新产品、主动型 ETF 等，我们的表现已经相当可观。
But on the private banking side, it's more bankers and more ARs. And you can see, we show you the head count we had. That's kind of the investment in that kind of area. All these areas is technology investments. And then in Commercial Banking, obviously, Silicon Valley Bank, we gained a lot of clients very quickly, but we're building what we call the innovation economy to do a better job and what First Republic did in Silicon Valley Bank was a big less than us, how they recover those clients.
在私人银行这块，更侧重增加银行家和客户顾问数量，相关人员规模就是我们在该领域的投资体现。所有这些方向都包含科技投入。商业银行方面，硅谷银行事件让我们迅速获得大量客户，我们正在构建所谓“创新经济”平台，努力比第一共和、硅谷银行做得更好并承接其客户需求。
So we are putting more bankers on the ground to cover some of those clients, changing some of our own policy and procedures. Middle market banking is still growing, and we have that Commercial Banking effort overseas. I just was in London, and it's working. We are covering more clients overseas in Commercial Banking.
因此，我们在一线增加银行家以服务这些客户，并调整自身政策流程。中端市场业务仍在增长，同时我们在海外扩展商业银行版图。我刚从伦敦回来，进展顺利，海外客户覆盖面持续扩大。
And then consumer, we gained share in auto. It has its own issues and stuff like that. We've actually gained a little share recently in mortgage, tough business, but hopefully, we'll look at how these regulations turn out. We're gaining share in credit card, we've added, right call, ancillary services in consumer, the travel, dining stuff, which we have a new great lounge coming at La Guardia.
在零售端，我们在汽车贷款上抢占了份额，尽管该领域也存在问题。近期在抵押贷款上也略有斩获，虽然业务艰难，但我们会关注监管走向。信用卡份额持续提升，并在消费端增添周边服务，如旅行、餐饮，我们在拉瓜迪亚机场即将开设优质贵宾室。
You've been in Boston, you have seeing ours and we're gaining share in Consumer Banking, small business, we have got products and services company. And those areas were still opening branches. We're still in products and services, adding better digital stuff, wealth management is a big area. I think we've really under -- not underperformed. We could do so much more there in terms of gaining share. So you see -- and you'll see that by -- mostly by assets under management and head count we're adding in branches around the country, et cetera.
你在波士顿也见过我们的门店。我们在零售银行、小企业业务上不断拿份额，并推出相应的产品与服务。相关区域仍在开设新网点，同时持续丰富数字化、财富管理等产品。财富管理潜力巨大，我们表现虽不错，但还有很大提升空间，这将体现在全美网点新增的资产管理规模和人员数量上。
And then some non-branch head count we're adding the conserve clients. You might have seen these great new ads. We can serve you digitally , remotely too. So a lot of stuff there. I think we grow in every single area. And of course, we have real competition too so we're quite cognizant of that.
此外，我们也在线上和远程渠道增设人员支持客户，你们可能看到过我们的新广告。数字化、远程服务也在推进。整体而言，我们在每个板块都实现增长。当然竞争激烈，我们对此非常清楚。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
Pull up there, we have about 5 minutes left to see if there's any questions from the audience.
时间差不多了，剩下约 5 分钟，看看观众有没有提问。
Unknown Attendee
I'd love to hear your thoughts on bank M\&A and maybe, yes, just size of banks out there, Yes.
我想听听您对银行并购的看法，或许也谈谈银行规模的问题？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
Yes. So I mean the -- I hear people talk about banking, they act like it's a static thing. Banks do mergers, they are just all getting bigger. Go back to 2007, a lot of the big banks got smaller quickly, called failure. And so it isn't -- it's like the system static. You have some banks doing well, bigger ones. Some not doing so well and you're going to continue to have that. I think they should allow bank M\&A so they could compete. That's not my own self-interest. I think it's a good idea.
是的。我听到有人谈论银行业时，好像它是静态的，银行并购只会让大银行更大。但回到 2007 年，很多大行很快就变小了——那叫“倒闭”。系统并非静止，总会有银行表现好，也有银行表现差，这种状态会持续。我认为应该允许银行并购以增强竞争力，这并非出于我个人利益，而是好主意。
If you're two banks, you think together, you're better off than separate, you should. And then you have new community banks all the time. like nonstop, you also have nonbanks, but PayPal, Square, Apple, Chime, Dave, Sofi, that's -- it's a dynamic system. You have a lot of stuff taking place. And we've got to compete with some of those people in some areas and some in a lot of areas. And -- so I think, there will be bank M\&A.
如果两家银行合并比单独经营更好，那就应该合并。同时不断有新的社区银行涌现，还有 PayPal、Square、Apple、Chime、Dave、Sofi 等非银机构。系统是动态的，发生着许多事情，我们必须在若干或很多领域与这些对手竞争。所以我认为银行并购会继续发生。
And I think Johnny \[indiscernible] actually came out and said they should allow it. The politicians say it shouldn't be allowed, they don't understand the dynamism of companies. And yes, some bank M\&A will fail, but there's nothing wrong with failure. You don't want to stop people from doing what they think is a good thing with their capital and their companies. And as you know, mergers are tough so if we're advising a company, I'd say, no you better be prepared for a bank merger has a lot of complexity around technology, sociology, all these various things, management, capabilities, et cetera. So -- but it should definitely positively be allowed. I think it will be because it's better for the system.
我记得 Johnny（听不清）也说过应该放开并购。政客们反对，是因为他们不了解企业的活力。有些银行并购会失败，但失败无可厚非。不能阻止企业按自己的资本和判断行事。众所周知，并购充满挑战，涉及技术、文化、管理能力等诸多复杂因素，如果我们为客户提供并购顾问，会提醒他们做好充分准备。但是并购绝对应该被允许，我认为最终也会被允许，因为这对整个体系更有利。
Unknown Attendee
I got one over here, sorry. To your left in the back. So very quickly, you mentioned a few times that you are more bearish than most over here, sorry. You mentioned a few times that you're more bearish in most and you've made couple of comments over the last couple of months. The hurricane comment, obviously. Is there something in your business specifically that you're seeing? Or is it more your take on the macro indicators that a lot of other people are seeing as well and making similar comments?
不知名与会者
我在这边，有个问题。在您左后方。您多次提到自己比大多数人更悲观，过去几个月也发表了一些相关言论，比如那句“飓风”比喻。请问，这种悲观看法是基于您在业务中看到的具体迹象，还是更多源于宏观指标——也就是许多人都在关注、并提出类似担忧的那些宏观信号？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
It's literally the extent of the fiscal deficit, the fact that we've never been through quantitative tightening before. So I think there's a false sense of security that those two things will end up being okay. I don't know. I just -- there are big, huge semi tectonic shifts that we've seen. Remember, governments, you also have the IRA Act, the remilitarization of the world, the green economy. You've got a lot of stuff which is very different than the past. It looks more like the 70s to me than anything else.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
主要原因是财政赤字的规模，以及我们从未真正经历过量化紧缩。我认为，人们对这两件事“最终会没事”存在一种虚假的安全感。我并不确定。我们正在经历一些巨大的、近似构造板块式的变化。别忘了，政府方面还有《通胀削减法案》(IRA)、全球重整军备、绿色经济等诸多与过去截然不同的因素。在我看来，这一切更像上世纪 70 年代。
And then there's war. Obviously, it's humanitarian crisis, but it is affecting all global trade, all global alliances, all global investing, America with the Middle East, America with China. And obviously, oil prices, energy prices, food prices, all of which could be hugely disrupting to geopolitics.
再加上战争。显而易见，这是人道主义危机，但它也影响着全球贸易、国际联盟和全球投资，牵动着美国与中东、美国与中国的关系。同时，油价、能源价格、食品价格都可能因此在地缘政治层面造成巨大冲击。
And I just put those category things in this bucket that says that is tough thing and maybe they all resolve and sort themselves out, maybe they won't. And I -- it just puts me on heightened edge of caution. And we could be sitting here a year and I wouldn't be surprised if those things have the 10-year bonds at 5.5%. Or oil is at \$1.20 or \$1.50. And it's only that. I don't know. I just in the back of my mind, I have to say that's not -- these things are tectonic differences that you've experienced since 1945. That's what it is.
我把这些因素归入“艰难问题”这一栏——或许它们最终会自行解决，也可能不会。正因如此，我保持高度警惕。一年后，我们坐在这里，我不会惊讶看到10年期美债收益率达到5.5%，或油价涨到120甚至150美元。我不知道。但在我脑海深处，我必须承认，自 1945 年以来，我们从未经历过如此大规模的结构性变化。
Unknown Attendee
One more here. So on geopolitical tensions, I think you just came back from China, what's the takeaway from the trip? How do you think U.S. kind of edition would go from here?
不知名与会者
还有一个问题。关于地缘政治紧张局势——您刚从中国回来，这次行程最大的收获是什么？您认为中美关系接下来会如何发展？
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Well, I'd put that highly cautious. So when I went there on that trip, the most noticeable thing to me, which now you kind of know a little bit is a lot of folks in Asia think that America wants to contain and maybe hurt China, which I don't think it's true. But I think the American Government has been quite clear that isn't the goal. The goal is to protect national security, American competitiveness and hopefully, that will be done in a way that's fair and reasonable and with our allies.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
对此我保持高度谨慎。这次去中国，我最明显的感受是——现在大家多少都知道——亚洲很多人认为美国想遏制甚至伤害中国。我并不这么看。我认为美国政府已明确表示，这不是目标；目标是保护国家安全和美国的竞争力，并希望与盟友以公平、合理的方式实现。
The other big takeaway by the way, is that the Chinese are worried about China. They all worry about China and America, but they were more worried about China. So you've seen FDI drop like a stone, FDI and an internal domestic thing. So I think -- it's an issue, but I think finally the American Government is doing the right thing. \[indiscernible] was there Tony \[indiscernible] was there. Johnny Yan went there. The President will hopefully meet with President Xi soon and they should have very rational private conversations, not insulting each other.
另一个重要发现是，中国人更担忧中国自身的问题。他们当然担心中美关系，但对中国内部的担忧更甚。因此你会看到外商直接投资急剧下滑。这确实是个问题，但我认为美国政府现在的做法是正确的：多位高官访华，拜登总统也希望尽快与习近平主席会面，双方应进行理性、私下而非相互指责的对话。
Both countries can do unilateral things. Just remember that, China has for years. America kind of didn't and now we are, we kind of pissed the Chinese off, but part of their own medicine and I'm hoping it will sort out. In terms of our own business, the risk-reward, which was very good, has now become just okay. The risk is bad. Like again, I don't expect more of Taiwan and stuff like that but you have to say this could go south.
两国都可能采取单边行动。多年来中国常这么做，美国过去不太做，现在开始这么做，这让中方不满，也算“以其人之道”。我希望最终能理顺。就我们自身业务而言，以前非常优渥的风险回报，如今只能算一般，风险在加大。我并不认为台海局势一定会恶化，但必须承认事情可能走向负面。
Henry Kissinger have spoken about this, Nina was far more about international relationships and geopolitics than I do, he's quite worried that we're off track with China and it could lead to bad outcomes. But the other good news is 4 years from now, they'll probably be in a fully industrialized nation, the big GDP per person, maybe not big in America, by the way.
亨利·基辛格也谈过此事，他对国际关系和地缘政治的了解远胜于我，他相当担心中美“脱轨”，可能带来不良后果。不过也有好消息：再过四年，中国或许将完全工业化，人均 GDP 规模可观——也许不及美国，但依然庞大。
I think people have been a little foolish in how they looked at China is a 10-foot giant because China has got serious problems of their own, not of our making, including geopolitical kind of pissed off all their neighbors a little bit, all from a rearming -- they're not rearming because the America did. They're on the rearming because China is scaring them with their behavior in South China sea, et cetera. But the fact is they'll probably a large industrial nation.
有些人把中国看成“十英尺高的巨人”，其实有些盲目。中国自身存在严重问题，并非我们造成的，包括地缘政治上让邻国不安。亚洲国家的“再军事化”并非因为美国，而是因为中国在南海等地的行为让他们感到恐惧。但不管怎么说，中国大概率仍会是一个庞大的工业国家。
So we're there. We're very cautious. We're managing our risk, but serve in China, hundreds of multinationals outside of China. We serve Chinese companies going out, which as long as we're not violating European or American sanctions and rules, we intend to continue to do. And then we also bank companies in China.
因此我们仍然在中国市场，但保持极为谨慎，严格管理风险。我们在华服务上百家跨国公司，也服务“走出去”的中国企业——只要不触犯欧美制裁与规定，我们会继续这样做。同时我们也为在华企业提供银行业务。
And we will -- there will be certain restrictions put on what we can do. What only you can do in China and the government is trying to sort out exactly what it wants to limit or not limit. I hope they're quite careful about it.
未来我们的业务会受到一定限制。哪些能做、哪些不能做，中国政府还在厘定。我希望他们对此持谨慎态度。
Jason Goldberg Barclays Bank
Seeing we're out of time, please join me in thanking, Jamie, for his time today.
杰森·戈德伯格 巴克莱银行
时间已到，请大家与我一起感谢詹米今天的分享。
James Dimon Chairman & CEO
Thank you very much. Good luck to you all.
詹姆斯·戴蒙 董事长兼首席执行官
非常感谢，祝各位一切顺利。
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