2023-11-01 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call November 1, 2023 9:30 AM ET
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第三季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2023 年 11 月 1 日上午 9:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Douglas Constantine - Director, IR
Douglas Constantine - 投资关系总监
Susan Griffith - President, CEO & Director
苏珊-格里菲斯 - 总裁、首席执行官兼董事
Patrick Callahan - President, Personal Lines
Patrick Callahan - 总裁，个人业务部
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Jian Huang - Morgan Stanley
Jian Huang - 摩根士丹利
Michael Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Joshua Shanker - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Joshua Shanker - 美银美林
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo Securities
Elyse Greenspan - 富国证券
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Tracy Benguigui - Barclays Bank
Tracy Benguigui - 巴克莱银行
Meyer Shields - KBW
Brian Meredith - UBS Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Charles Peters - Raymond James & Associates
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's Third Quarter Investor Event. I'm Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第三季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，将主持今天的活动。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website. Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes schedule for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. Introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we'll use the balance of the 60 minutes schedule for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.
除了在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司不会就业绩发表详细评论。尽管我们的季度 "投资者关系 "活动通常包括对特定业务部分的介绍，但我们将利用今天活动的 60 分钟时间安排首席执行官的介绍性评论以及与公司领导团队成员的问答环节。首席执行官的介绍性发言之前已经录制。之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用 60 分钟的剩余时间与我们的领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that can cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event. Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as supplemented by our 10-Q reports for the first, second, and third quarters of 2023, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our business, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至2022年12月31日的10-K年度报告，以及2023年第一、第二和第三季度的10-Q补充报告，在这些报告中，您可以找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性声明有关的安全港声明以及有关我们面临的挑战的其他讨论。您可以通过我们网站 investors.progressive.com 上的 "投资者关系 "版块查看这些文件。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Tricia?
首先，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯，她将为我们做一些开场白。特里西娅？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. At the end of the second quarter, we were in a difficult place. Rising loss cost, adverse development and catastrophic weather events meant we were facing a significant uphill battle to deliver on our calendar year 96 combined ratio target, while facing a very uncertain future. We made difficult decisions to steer the business through this challenging time.
早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。第二季度末，我们处境艰难。损失成本上升、不利发展和灾难性天气事件意味着我们面临着一场艰巨的战斗，既要实现96日历年的综合比率目标，又要面对非常不确定的未来。我们做出了艰难的决定，以指导业务度过这一充满挑战的时期。
Despite the headwinds, I believed in our strategy and the leaders who are in charge of delivering that strategy. While we knew it wouldn't be easy, we knew that if we execute it properly, we come out better on the other side. While there is still much uncertainty in our future and more work to do, the results in the third quarter suggest our strategy is working.
尽管困难重重，但我相信我们的战略和负责实施战略的领导人。虽然我们知道这并不容易，但我们知道，如果我们执行得当，我们就能取得更好的结果。虽然我们的未来仍有很多不确定性，还有更多的工作要做，但第三季度的业绩表明，我们的战略正在发挥作用。
Before discussing what did happen in the third quarter, let's first discuss what did not happen. First, unlike the first half of the year, the third quarter saw modest company-wide reserve development of only 0.2 points unfavorable across all lines. As we discussed in our presentation during our last call, our reserving group adjusted reserves in the first half tracks many things, including higher severity caused by steepening trends in our fixing vehicle coverages, and higher attorney representation rates in Florida precipitated by House Bill 837.
在讨论第三季度发生的事情之前，我们先来讨论一下没有发生的事情。首先，与上半年不同的是，第三季度全公司的准备金增长幅度不大，所有项目的不利因素仅为 0.2 个点。正如我们在上次电话会议的演示中所述，我们的准备金小组在上半年对准备金进行了调整，调整的原因有很多，包括我们的固定车辆保险趋势陡增导致的严重程度提高，以及佛罗里达州的律师代理费率因第 837 号众议院法案而提高。
In contrast to the first half, in the third quarter, we saw some flattening in the loss cost trends for fixing and replacing vehicles. We also now believe we have adequately reserved for the higher severity related to pre-House Bill 837 lawsuits. Second, in the third quarter, catastrophe losses were 1.3 points lower in total after reinsurance than the first half of the year. We do not write homeowners in Hawaii. So our exposure to the heart-wrenching Maui fires was limited.
与上半年相比，在第三季度，我们看到修理和更换车辆的损失成本趋势有所平缓。我们现在也相信，我们已经为与第 837 号法案之前的诉讼相关的较高严重性做好了充分准备。其次，在第三季度，再保险后的巨灾损失总额比上半年低 1.3 个百分点。我们不承保夏威夷的房屋保险。因此，我们在令人心碎的毛伊岛大火中的风险是有限的。
After reinsurance, our property catastrophe losses in the third quarter were 28 points lower than the first 6 months of the year. And while Hurricane Idalia was devastating to the people in this path of destruction, the density of homes and autos we insured in that path was relatively low.
再保险后，我们第三季度的财产巨灾损失比今年前 6 个月减少了 28 个百分点。虽然伊达利亚飓风对灾区人民造成了巨大的破坏，但我们在灾区承保的房屋和汽车的密度相对较低。
What did happen in the third quarter is that our rate and non-rate actions had a positive effect on premium and profitability. Including the 4 points of rate we took in the third quarter, we have now taken approximately 16 points in personal auto year-to-date with more of that rate earning in every day. Both Commercial Lines and homeowners also took rate as we looked to address loss trends in those lines. We continue to adjust and refine non-rate actions across the portfolio to help the business we are writing to meet our profitability targets.
第三季度发生的情况是，我们的费率和非费率行动对保费和盈利能力产生了积极影响。包括第三季度我们实施的4个百分点的费率调整，我们现在已经在今年的个人汽车保险中实施了大约16个百分点的费率调整，而且更多的费率每天都在生效。商业保险和房主保险也进行了费率调整，因为我们希望解决这些保险项目中的损失趋势。我们继续调整和完善整个投资组合的非费率行动，以帮助我们正在承保的业务达到我们的盈利目标。
In addition to improved underwriting results, our net income is also benefiting from the higher interest rate environment. For the first 9 months, our investment portfolio yield is 90 basis points higher, and recurring investment income is 59% higher than the same period last year. With sustained higher interest rates, we expect yields to continue to increase as securities with lower interest rates mature and those funds are reinvested at higher rates.
除了承保业绩的改善，我们的净收入也受益于较高的利率环境。前 9 个月，我们的投资组合收益率比去年同期高出 90 个基点，经常性投资收入比去年同期高出 59%。随着利率持续走高，我们预计收益率将继续提高，因为利率较低的证券将到期，而这些资金将以较高的利率进行再投资。
Many of the actions we took and continue to take to address profitability have an adverse impact on unit growth. New apps in personal auto were down 20% in the third quarter compared to the prior year and contributed to a decrease in PIF compared to the end of the second quarter. This is a reflection of our self-imposed pullback in media spend as we seek to manage our combined ratio through the acquisition expense ratio and find the right balance in cohort pricing, which we talked about at length at our last quarterly call.
我们采取并持续采取的许多措施来提高盈利能力，对单位增长产生了不利影响。与前一年相比，第三季度个人汽车的新申请下降了20%，这导致了与第二季度末相比，已赚取保费收入(PIF)的减少。这反映了我们在媒体支出上的自我限制，因为我们试图通过获取费用比率来管理我们的综合比率，并在同期定价中找到正确的平衡，这是我们在上一次季度电话会议中详细讨论过的。
能把保险业务做好的都是很有纪律、有耐心的公司。
We continue to assess our marketing spend. And as always, we endeavor to find the right balance between profitability and new business growth. While new applications shrank year-over-year in personal auto, retention reflected through our PLE measure continues to be robust at 35% in personal auto on a trailing 3 basis. We believe robust retention, especially in the face of higher rates than a year ago is an indicator that many of our competitors are still tight on underwriting, and we remain competitive in the marketplace.
我们继续评估我们的市场支出。并且一如既往，我们努力在盈利能力和新业务增长之间找到正确的平衡。尽管个人汽车的新申请与去年同期相比有所减少，但通过我们的PLE衡量的保留情况仍然强劲，个人汽车的3个月滚动保留率为35%。我们相信，特别是在比一年前更高的费率面前，强劲的客户保留率是一个指标，表明我们的许多竞争对手在核保方面仍然很严格，而我们在市场中仍然具有竞争力。
Despite the headwinds created by our profitability actions, our year-over-year growth was very strong. Through September, company-wide PIFs were up 10% year-over-year. Positive year-over-year PIF growth plus higher rates means our premium growth was spectacular with net written premium up 20% year-to-date or $7.9 billion.
尽管我们的盈利能力行动带来了一些不利因素，但我们的同比增长非常强劲。截至9月，全公司的已赚取保费收入（PIF）同比增长了10%。同比增长的PIF加上更高的费率意味着我们的保费增长非常可观，净承保保费同比增长了20%，达到79亿美元。
To put the first 3 quarters premium growth into perspective, we've added the premium equivalent to a top 8 personal auto insurance carrier, which is a truly amazing statistic. Despite the successes that occurred in quarter 3, we are not yet declaring victory. Our calendar year combined ratio currently stands 1.2 points above our 96 target. While loss trends have flattened, they are still elevated.
将前三季度的保费增长放在一个角度来看，我们增加的保费相当于一个排名前八的个人汽车保险公司的保费，这是一个非常惊人的数据。尽管第三季度取得了成功，我们还没有宣布胜利。我们今年的综合比率目前比我们的目标96高出1.2个百分点。虽然损失趋势已经趋于平稳，但仍然较高。
Macroeconomic indicators suggest inflation is abating, but we are vigilant. Given the geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, our view of the future could change overnight. We continue to refine our plans for the rest of 2023 and 2024 as new information comes in. We have built a business where we can quickly take advantage of the opportunities the market offers us. So I'm confident that as things change, we will react with the goal of delivering the best-in-class results we expect of ourselves.
宏观经济指标表明通胀正在减弱，但我们仍保持警惕。鉴于地缘政治和宏观经济环境，我们对未来的看法可能在一夜之间发生变化。随着新信息的出现，我们将继续完善 2023 年剩余时间和 2024 年的计划。我们已经建立了一个能够迅速抓住市场机遇的企业。因此，我相信，随着情况的变化，我们将以实现我们期望的一流业绩为目标做出反应。
Finally, as a reminder, and as we've previously announced, beginning this fourth quarter, we will move to reporting results on a Gregorian calendar basis versus our historical approach of a 544 convention. Consequently, for the next year, we will limit historical comparisons on a monthly basis and we will continue such comparisons on a quarterly basis.
最后，我们提醒大家，正如我们之前所宣布的，从第四季度开始，我们将改用公历报告业绩，而不是以往的 544 法。因此，在接下来的一年里，我们将限制按月进行历史比较，并将继续按季度进行比较。
Thank you again for joining us, and I will now take your questions.
再次感谢您参加我们的会议，我现在开始回答您的问题。
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. [Operator Instructions].
今天活动的录制到此结束。现在我们有管理团队成员现场回答问题。[接线员指令]：
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley.
[接线员指示]第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。
Jian Huang 黄健
Just a quick question on the way you think about growth. Obviously, you are getting closer and closer to your 96% targeted combined ratio. Curious as to how should we think about the future growth trajectory going forward? Once -- now that appears that losses are improving, reserving appears to be more manageable, heading into 2024, once you -- assuming you get to a 96% combined ratio in 2023, should -- is it reasonable to assume that you would reaccelerate growth into 2024?
我只想简单问一下你们对增长的看法。很明显，你们越来越接近 96% 的目标综合比率。很好奇我们应该如何看待未来的增长轨迹？一旦 -- 现在损失似乎有所改善，准备金似乎更加可控，进入2024年，一旦你 -- 假设你在2023年达到96%的综合比率，是否应该 -- 是否可以合理地假设你会在2024年重新加速增长？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, that's definitely reasonable, Bob. Here's how I'm thinking about it. We obviously have 1.2 points to diminish to get to our 96, we're going to continue to work on that. We're still seeing a pretty hard market out there, so we're getting a lot of ambient shopping. And if you caught the last part of the statement even with us doing the self-imposed pullback from our media spend and from non-rate actions, we were able to grow the company nearly $8 billion compared to the first 9 months of last year. 10% PIF is a little bit higher on the direct auto side. So we're pretty excited about what we were able to achieve this year. And I say that not necessarily for the analytical community out there, but mostly for the 60,000 people that got us there.
当然，这绝对合理，鲍勃。我是这样考虑的。我们显然需要减少1.2个百分点以达到我们的目标96，我们将继续努力实现这一点。我们仍然看到一个相当艰难的市场，所以我们得到了很多随机的询价。如果你听到了声明的最后部分，即使我们自我限制了媒体支出和非费率行动，我们还是能够与去年同期的前9个月相比，使公司增长了近80亿美元。直接汽车方面的已赚取保费收入（PIF）增长了10%，这稍微高了一些。所以我们对今年所取得的成就感到非常兴奋。我这样说，不一定是为了分析界的人士，而主要是为了那6万名帮助我们实现这一目标的人。
So profit comes before growth. We'll continue to work on that. And what we'll start to do in the relatively near future, start to pull back some of our non-rate actions. So we have a hierarchy of non-rate actions that we'll look to start to pull back. We can test. There's obviously been a lot of uncertainty out there. So we're going to go -- we're going to be measured. And then we can pull back that next tranche in the hierarchy of non-rate actions. And we just met with our media team and are working on a pretty robust budget that we'll plan to put into effect. We still have, obviously, marketing the rest of this quarter but into 2024.
利润先于增长。我们将继续致力于此。我们将在不久的将来开始减少一些非费率措施。因此，我们有一系列非费率措施，我们将开始考虑逐步减少。我们可以进行测试。显然，外界存在很多不确定性。我们将谨慎行事。然后我们可以在非费率措施的层级中减少下一批。我们刚刚与我们的媒体团队会面，并正在制定一个相当雄厚的预算计划，我们计划将其付诸实施。我们显然还有本季度剩余时间以及到2024年的市场营销工作。
给到保险公司的资本总是处理的相对谨慎，做好做不好的反馈也比较灵敏。
So I would say, we're excited. I will say that there's been a lot of uncertainty. And so we're going to be really diligent and cautious, but our goal is to grow as fast as we can at 96 or better.
所以我想说，我们很兴奋。我要说的是，不确定因素很多。因此，我们会非常勤奋和谨慎，但我们的目标是以 96% 或更高的速度快速增长。
Jian Huang 黄健
That's very helpful. Maybe pivot a little bit on reserving. On the 10-Q, you had a lot of disclosure on. An explanation on how severity trends are developing over time? But just kind of curious in terms of frequency, specifically on bodily injuries. It looks like frequency normalized, improved quite a bit. Just curious if you have any commentary there around what's causing the frequency numbers to improve? And is that a trend that we should be expecting that it will normalize back to a generally negative frequency number going forward?
这很有帮助。也许可以稍微转变一下关于准备金的话题。在10-Q报告中，你们披露了很多信息。关于严重性趋势如何随时间发展的解释？但我只是有点好奇，特别是在身体伤害方面的频率，看起来频率已经正常化，有了相当大的改善。只是好奇你们是否有什么评论，是什么导致了频率数字的改善？这是否是一个我们应该期待的趋势，它将恢复正常，回到一个普遍的负面频率数字？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. It's really hard to discern frequency. A lot of it has to do with geography mix, CMT mix, it could be -- have to do with our underwriting effect. So I don't really want to focus too much on that because there's just a lot of inputs.
是的，很难确定频率。很多因素与地域组合、CMT 组合有关，也可能与我们的承保效果有关。因此，我并不想过多关注这个问题，因为这涉及到很多因素。
What I would say from a stability perspective is we're down overall about 1.5%, 13 to 24 months. So we've been pretty stable as far as frequency overall. What I'll also say is when we look at our UBI data, we are seeing about 15 months of stability where VMTs are still down about 15% pre-COVID. Now again, I can't confirm that, that stability will continue. But what we're seeing is not a lot of more movement to commute hours, and we have some external data that shows that badge swipes in office remained pretty stable at about 50% of office workers working from home versus office. So there is some stability. There's always a lot of inputs and there's always a lot of change that's happening, especially as we talked about rolling back some of our non-rate actions, but it's been stable for quite a while.
从稳定性的角度来看，我们总体上下降了大约1.5%，在13到24个月之间。所以我们在频率方面一直保持相当稳定。我还要说的是，当我们查看我们的UBI（按里程计费保险）数据时，我们看到大约15个月的稳定性，其中车辆行驶里程（VMT）仍然比COVID之前下降了约15%。再次强调，我不能确认这种稳定性是否会持续。但我们看到的是，通勤时间并没有太多的变动，我们有一些外部数据显示，办公室的门禁刷卡数据表明，大约有50%的办公室工作者在家工作与在办公室工作的比例保持稳定。所以确实有一些稳定性。总是有很多输入因素，也总是有很多变化在发生，特别是正如我们所讨论的逐步减少一些非费率措施，但它已经稳定了相当长的一段时间。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.
下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
I guess a follow-up on ambient shopping. Should we be thinking about it as kind of looking at the industry's profitability and capital position? And then ultimately, as the industry heals as long as -- as well as Progressive's profit margins healed, the ambient shopping benefit, which is pretty extraordinary kind of should dissipate. How are you guys -- internally, do you guys have your own kind of view? Or has your view evolved at all on the benefit you're getting from kind of lower LTV to CAC and ambient shopping?
我想进一步了解一下环境购物的情况。我们是否应该考虑它是在观察行业的盈利能力和资本状况？然后最终，随着行业的复苏，只要——随着Progressive的利润率恢复，环境购物的好处，这是非常不寻常的，应该会消失。你们内部是否有自己的看法？或者你们对从较低的LTV到CAC和环境购物中获得的好处的看法是否有所演变？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
How I think about that, Mike, is it's been a hard market for a while. We did get out in front of rates to begin with, and then again at the beginning of this year as we saw the trends change specifically in severity of fixing cars. So getting out in front of that, when others might be behind, we're going to get that ambient shopping.
迈克，我是这么想的，市场艰难已经有一段时间了。一开始，我们确实走在了费率的前面，今年年初，我们又看到了趋势的变化，特别是在汽车修理方面。因此，当其他公司可能落后于我们的时候，我们已经走在了前面。
We watch it really closely in the auction environment. And the great part about that is that you can get a really low cost per sale. So we'll watch that, but we will definitely put on the gas as needed if we feel like the market is softening at all. I can't really speak to what other competitors do, but I imagine that they're trying to get to their target profit margins, and that means they're going to put a lot of rate out there, which means shopping is going to happen, and that's how we get that business.
我们确实非常密切地关注拍卖环境中的情况。这的好处是，你可以以非常低的成本获得每笔销售。所以我们会密切关注这一点，但如果我们感觉市场有丝毫软化的迹象，我们肯定会适时加大投入。我不能确切地评论其他竞争对手的做法，但我猜想他们也在努力达到他们的目标利润率，这意味着他们会在市场上推出很多费率，这意味着购物将会发生，这就是我们获得业务的方式。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
Mike, I'd add. Much of the ambient shopping today, we are dissuading from purchasing a policy with Progressive. So as Tricia was saying, we are going to pull back on some of the non-rate actions we've had in place that had been obviously designed to improve profitability. And as we do so, more of those ambient shoppers are going to get through to potentially buy a Progressive policy. So we have some, what I'll call, unmet demand out there that as we're more adequately priced will become growth.
您好，Mike，我补充一下。今天很多环境购物，我们正在阻止人们从Progressive购买保险政策。正如Tricia所说，我们将减少一些我们已经实施的非费率措施，这些措施显然是为了提高盈利能力而设计的。当我们这样做时，更多的环境购物者将有可能通过购买Progressive的保险政策。所以我们有一些，我称之为，未满足的需求，当我们的价格更合适时，将成为增长。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Okay. That's helpful. Lastly, I was hoping to switch gears to the TNC business on the commercial side. There's been a lot of growth there, you've taken a lot of market share to peers. I'm assuming that, that business is coming to you at hefty price increases. But it's also been a cause of reserve development. I guess any color you can offer on what's going on with that business? And just lastly, does this business come with a bigger new business penalty than other parts of personal auto or commercial non-TNC?
好的，这很有帮助。最后，我希望转换话题到商业方面的交通网络公司（TNC）业务。那里有很多增长，你们已经从同行那里获得了很大的市场份额。我假设，这个业务是以大幅提高价格的方式来到你们这里的。但它也是准备金发展的原因。我可以提供一些关于这个业务正在进行什么的更多信息吗？最后，这个业务是否比其他个人汽车或商业非TNC部分有更大的新业务惩罚？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, I'll start with the last part. I think what it comes with is sometimes we don't necessarily know that product in the state. So just like any new business, where we're learning the cost associated with it, we've seen that in TNC. So said another way, the more mature states that we've had are performing much better.
是的，我先说最后一部分。我认为，有时我们不一定了解本州的产品。因此，就像任何新业务一样，我们正在学习与之相关的成本，我们在 TNC 也看到了这一点。因此，从另一个角度看，我们所处的较为成熟的州的表现要好得多。
But you're right on the rate increases. We've over doubled the rate since 2021 in the TNC business. And specifically, what we are seeing is the rate increases are driven by just a few states. And those states have some structural challenges relating to limit mixes, specifically UM/UIM. So what we've been doing with both of our customers is really gathering the data that we have. We have a treasure trove of data being the largest commercial auto writer. And then they have their own data. We obviously separate and bifurcate the two companies, but talk with them about how to get to the right rates in a more timely fashion and work with them to develop approaches just around flexibility. So think of 6-month policies or greater segmentation. And that's what we're working on right now. I can't go into a lot of specifics because it is proprietary, but we're working very closely to get the rate we need, specifically in the states I talked about with the high UM/UIM limits. And the other states, we're more comfortable with because they're performing better.
您提到的关于交通网络公司（TNC）业务的费率增长是正确的。自2021年以来，我们已经将费率提高了一倍多。具体来说，我们看到的费率增长是由少数几个州推动的。这些州在与UM/UIM（无保险/保险不足驾驶人保险）相关的限制混合方面存在一些结构性挑战。因此，我们一直在与我们的客户做两件事：收集我们拥有的数据。作为最大的商业汽车保险承保商，我们拥有大量数据。然后他们有自己的数据。我们显然将两家公司的数据分开，但与他们讨论如何更及时地达到适当的费率，并与他们合作开发更灵活的方法。所以可以想象6个月的政策或更大的细分。这就是我们现在正在做的。我不能透露很多细节，因为这是专有的，但我们正在非常密切地合作，以获得我们需要的费率，特别是在我提到的UM/UIM限制高的州。对于其他州，我们更放心，因为它们的表现更好。
在美国的有些地方有很多没有保险的车，车险是个比较大的经济负担，年平均费用是2278美元，除此以外还有其他的保险，《An Increase in Uninsured Drivers Is Pushing Up Costs for Everyone Else》提到的例子是1100/月。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的吉米-布拉尔（Jimmy Bhullar）。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
So first, I had a question on Commercial Line reserves. We had an issue for several months where you guys had consistent adverse development in the personal auto side, and I think in September, you had adverse development on the commercial side as well. So maybe discuss what the drivers of that were and what gives you the confidence that this is sort of not the beginning of a trend where adverse development might continue for a few months in Commercial Lines as well?
首先，我有一个关于商业险准备金的问题。几个月来，你们在个人汽车方面一直存在不利发展的问题，我想在九月份，你们在商业方面也出现了不利发展。那么，也许可以讨论一下造成这种情况的原因是什么，是什么让你们有信心认为这不是一种趋势的开始，即商业险的不利发展也可能会持续几个月？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. So we saw some of the similar things we did in private passenger auto in Commercial Lines. Really the two factors, the one I just talked about was the TNC reserves in those specific states and the other was late reported injury claims. And I think those make up the majority of the Commercial Lines.
是的，我们在商业险中看到了一些与私人乘用车险类似的情况。其实有两个因素，一个是我刚才谈到的在特定州的 TNC 储备，另一个是迟报的伤害索赔。我认为这些因素占商业险的大部分。
We'll continue to look. We obviously feel in some of the reserving that Gary and his team have looked at it pretty deeply. So think of the Florida House Bill 837, think of fixing cars. And Gary will continue to look at those high limit states throughout the year to make sure we're adequately reserved for Commercial Lines as well.
我们将继续关注。我们明显感觉到，加里和他的团队已经对一些准备金进行了相当深入的研究。所以，想想佛罗里达州众议院第 837 号法案，想想修车。加里全年都会继续关注这些高限额州，以确保我们的商业险也有足够的储备。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Okay. And then secondly on your expense ratio, has the decline been mostly driven by just a proactive view on your part to pull back from the market while you're seeking price hikes and not be as active on marketing? Or are there any structural changes in the and exemptions as well?
好的。其次，关于您的费用比率，下降主要是由于您主动减少市场活动，同时寻求提高价格，而不是在营销上那么积极？还是有结构性的变化和豁免呢？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, we're always looking to reduce expenses, especially on the non-acquisition expense ratio. But we've pulled back significantly in advertising, and that obviously hits the expense ratio as well as the increase in premium.
我们一直在寻求降低支出，尤其是非收购支出比率。但我们已经大幅削减了广告费用，这显然会影响到费用率以及保费的增长。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
And you'll come back, I guess. What do you need to see before you start coming back into the market with more marketing spending?
我想，你会回来的。在投入更多营销费用重返市场之前，你需要看到什么？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. We have -- even if you look at our marketing spend and the reduction, we spend a significant amount on marketing and that will continue into the fourth quarter of pre-planned spends that we already have. But like I said, what we're going to do is be really cautious and initially start to roll back non-rate actions, and we have a robust media spend planned for 2024. Again, that's a plan. So that is one lever where we can pull forward if we think there's a lot of business we had as long as we're making our target profit margins or pull back if we find ourselves in the place that we did in the first half of 2023.
是的。我们有 -- 即使你看看我们的营销支出和削减，我们在营销上的支出也很可观，这将持续到第四季度，我们已经有了预先计划的支出。但就像我说的，我们要做的是非常谨慎，首先开始缩减非费率行动，我们计划在 2024 年实现强劲的媒体支出。同样，这也是一个计划。因此，如果我们认为有很多业务，只要我们能实现目标利润率，我们就可以利用这个杠杆向前推进；如果我们发现自己处于 2023 年上半年的状况，我们也可以收回投资。
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.
Yaron Kinar
Two questions. So first, do you see any potential impact from the UAW strike which is hopefully behind us now?
两个问题。首先，您是否看到UAW罢工可能带来的任何潜在影响，希望现在我们已经度过了？
Susan Griffith
We do a little bit because even though the strike wasn't that long, I think, around 8 weeks total. There's about 12 to 18 weeks before we start to see recovery in some of the parts as well as new vehicles being made. So immediately, when we saw the strike happen, John Murphy and his group went into the sort of mode of sensitivity analysis around this. We have deployed and executed a plan on that. And our main issue for this next 12 or so weeks is really to just minimize the disruption in both our customers and the company.
我们确实受到了一些影响，因为即使罢工时间并不是很长，我想总共大约8周。在我们开始看到一些零件以及新车辆生产的恢复之前，大约需要12到18周的时间。所以，当我们看到罢工发生时，约翰·墨菲和他的团队立即进入了对此进行敏感性分析的模式。我们已经就此部署并执行了一个计划。接下来大约12周左右的主要问题确实是尽可能减少对我们的客户和公司的干扰。
Yaron Kinar
Got it. So near-term impact potentially, but not really beyond 12 to 16 weeks or so?
明白了。所以短期内可能会有影响，但不会真的超过12到16周左右？
Susan Griffith
That's what we're thinking. Of course, every now we'll watch just like all of the data and especially as we continue to earn in more rate towards the states that we're adequately priced, it may not have any impact. The thing we worry about the most is delays in fixing vehicles, which has been a concern going forward in the past, I should say, just based on talent in the body shops and having the right mechanics to do that, but we'll be able to see that really quickly and react to that should we need to.
这就是我们的想法。当然，现在我们会像观察所有数据一样，尤其是当我们继续在价格合适的州赚取更多利润时，这可能不会产生任何影响。我们最担心的是修车延误，这也是我们过去一直担心的问题，应该说，这只是基于车身修理厂的人才和拥有合适的机械师，但我们能够很快看到这一点，并在需要时做出反应。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Got it. And then my second question, maybe you can help us think through this. So you've implemented a lot of rate in personal auto, still earning a good chunk of that as well. You're talking about some stabilization of the loss trends. So if and when you accelerate this growth on a much healthier rate adequacy, do you expect that to ultimately improve the loss ratio? Or is the immediate impact still an adverse impact because of the new business penalty?
明白了。我的第二个问题，或许您可以帮我们思考一下。您在个人汽车保险方面实施了很多费率调整，仍然在赚取相当一部分收益。您谈到了损失趋势的稳定。所以，如果您加速这种增长，并且在一个更健康的费率充足性上，您是否预期最终会改善损失比率？还是由于新业务惩罚，立即的影响仍然是不利的？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, if we spend more on marketing, there is a new business penalty. But if we believe we are putting new units on the book at a lifetime 96 or cohort 96 calendar year, then we feel good about it. And we'll price to that. We are very efficient in our media spend, and we'll price to that. And really, we feel better every day in all products as each day goes by as more rate earns in. But we know that's part of new business and we're happy to do it if we think we can make the target profit margin that we go to.
如果我们在市场营销上投入更多，就会有一个新业务惩罚。但如果我们相信我们是在以终身96或同期96的日历年将新单位录入账簿，那我们就对此感到满意。我们会据此定价。我们在媒体支出上非常高效，并且会据此定价。实际上，随着更多的费率开始生效，我们在所有产品上每天都感觉更好。但我们知道这是新业务的一部分，如果我们认为我们能达到我们设定的目标利润率，我们就愿意这样做。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America.
下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。
Joshua Shanker 约书亚-尚克
Looking at competitor behavior, I don't need to speak about individual competitors, but GEICO lost a lot of customers over the past year and I look at some other publicly traded companies. And the leakage of policies has not been so significant elsewhere where I can tell yet Progressive has grown dramatically.
从竞争对手的行为来看，我不需要谈论单个竞争对手，但 GEICO 在过去一年中失去了很多客户，我还看了其他一些上市公司。在其他地方，保单流失的情况并不严重，但 Progressive 的保单却大幅增长。
And thinking about the year to come and the year that's passed, when you think about captive independent and direct channels, where has most of the market share growth that Progressive has achieved come from? And next year for a company like GEICO becomes more aggressive in its desire to add new customers, does that change the calculus on what the market share gains and the type of customers might be in the new year?
考虑到未来一年和已经过去的一年，当你考虑到自营独立渠道和直销渠道时，Progressive 所实现的大部分市场份额增长来自哪里？明年，像 GEICO 这样的公司会更加积极地增加新客户，这是否会改变新一年的市场份额增长和客户类型？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, I think we're a growth company, Josh, and I think we're going to try to do anything we can to grow as long as we make our target profit margins. We understand where much of our business is coming through because we know the proof of the prior carrier. And so it's been not just GEICO, but other companies, I don't want to talk specifically about the percentage of where it's come from. But it really depends on are people priced right in the market? Do they have the right brand? Do they care about expense ratio, which keeps the prices competitive?
好的，我认为我们是一家成长型公司，乔什，我认为我们会尽一切努力来实现增长，只要我们达到我们的目标利润率。我们知道我们的业务大部分是从哪里来的，因为我们知道之前承运人的证明。所以不仅仅是GEICO，还有其他公司，我不想具体谈论它来自哪里的百分比。但这确实取决于人们是否在市场上定价正确？他们是否拥有正确的品牌？他们是否关心费用比率，这使得价格具有竞争力？
技术和传统智慧的相互挑战，双边都会进步，也可以结合在一起，苹果是技术和艺术（极简的价值观）的完美结合。
And so for us, it's really -- and we've talked about before, it's making sure that we have all 4 of our strategic pillars, really starting with our people and culture and then going on to our brand, competitive prices and broad coverage. And that's where I think we're able to win and continue to grow. We can react very quickly when our competitors do have actions. And really, that's our focus, is to make sure that we have those 4 strategic pillars and that we invest in all of them to continue to be a high-growth company.
因此，对我们来说，真正重要的是--我们以前也说过，要确保我们拥有全部四个战略支柱，首先是我们的员工和文化，然后是我们的品牌、有竞争力的价格和广泛的覆盖面。这就是我认为我们能够获胜并持续增长的原因。当我们的竞争对手采取行动时，我们能够迅速做出反应。实际上，这就是我们的重点，确保我们拥有这四大战略支柱，并对所有支柱进行投资，以继续成为一家高增长的公司。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
The thing to consider there, Josh, is which segments we're growing in would be somewhat indicative of where they're coming from. So we are continuing to grow well in the more preferred segments of our business, the Robinsons, but also we call rights who are homeowners that do not bundle yet their home and auto with Progressive. And we have not been growing, actually this year, we've been shrinking a little bit on the standard end. So the nonstandard end of the spectrum. So that bodes really well for our future growth because, obviously, those customers stick with us longer. And I think where they come from is important, but also whom we're bringing into our customer set is a really important way to think about it.
乔希，要考虑的是我们正在增长的细分市场，这在某种程度上可以说明它们的来源。因此，我们继续在业务中更受欢迎的细分市场表现良好，即罗宾逊家族，但我们称之为权利的人，即那些尚未将他们的家庭和汽车与Progressive捆绑在一起的家庭拥有者。实际上，今年我们并没有在标准端增长，我们稍微缩减了一些，在非标准端的频谱上。这对我们未来的增长非常有利，因为显然，这些客户与我们在一起的时间更长。我认为它们来自哪里很重要，但我们带入客户群体的人也是一个非常重要的思考方式。
Joshua Shanker
And given that answer, is there a way of bifurcating or segmenting the property business such that -- I guess, the question is what percentage of the business is operating at a 96% or better and growing as fast as it can. Obviously, there are some states where you're not there yet and maybe it's segmented by state, but to what extent have you achieved the goal of the property business running the way you want it in the geographies that you operate?
从这个答案来看，是否有办法对房地产业务进行分叉或细分，从而 -- 我想，问题是有多大比例的业务运营率达到或超过 96%，并以最快的速度增长。很明显，有些州还没有达到这个水平，也许可以按州来划分，但在你们经营的地区，你们在多大程度上实现了按你们希望的方式经营房地产业务的目标？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I think we start with what we started with about a year ago, and that was to derisk the book and have less new apps and policies in volatile states and more in nonvolatile. And you saw the data on that in the queue that we believe we're doing a great job. We're non-renewing about 115,000 policies in Florida, we're just over indexed in Florida. And so we love Florida. We have a lot of Robinsons. We have a lot of autos and we continue to have a lot of homes, but we were not making money and we needed to non-renew some. So that will happen over the next year or so.
是的，我认为我们从一年前就开始了，那就是降低账簿风险，减少不稳定状态下的新应用程序和政策，增加非不稳定状态下的应用程序和政策。你也看到了队列中的数据，我们相信我们做得很好。我们在佛罗里达州不续保的保单约有 115,000 份，我们在佛罗里达州的指数过高。因此，我们热爱佛罗里达州。我们有很多罗宾逊。我们有很多汽车保单，也有很多房屋保单，但我们没有赚到钱，我们需要不再续保一些保单。因此，这将在未来一年左右发生。
We knew it would take a long time. But I think really what our strategy is on the property channel is not unlike it was years ago in the auto channel. We're investing more in segmentation, we're investing more in understanding rate to risk and the necessary need for reinsurance, but we will get there. And obviously, third quarter was a lot better than it was in the past. And there's a lot of buzz because Ian came off, and there wasn't as many storms. But we feel good about our plan, it will still take some time to execute, but we're in the heart of that.
我们的策略在财产渠道上需要很长时间，但我认为实际上与多年前在汽车渠道上的策略并无不同。我们正在更多地投资于细分市场，更多地投资于理解费率与风险的关系，以及再保险的必要需求，但我们会实现目标。显然，第三季度比过去好很多。由于伊恩飓风过后，没有那么多风暴，所以有很多议论。但我们对我们的计划感到满意，执行计划仍需要一些时间，但我们已经在其中了。
能投入也能快速撤回，有这种灵活性并且在一个充分竞争的市场里要有超额收益看着不容易，芒格说光凭保险业务不可能让BRK取得如此巨大的成绩。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Greg Peters with Raymond James.
下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司（Raymond James）的格雷格-彼得斯（Greg Peters）。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
I want to step back to your comments about the non-rate action. And it sounds like you're getting ready to dial back some of those actions. Can you remind us exactly what some of those actions were? Did they include any things around commission or fees to lead gen companies? Do you expect those things to change over the next year?
我想回过头来谈谈你对非利率行动的评论。听起来你似乎准备缩减一些行动。你能提醒我们这些行动的具体内容吗？其中是否包括向潜在客户公司收取佣金或费用？你预计明年这些行动会发生变化吗？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I'll let Pat comment on that. It was less about commissions and more on our strategy around some underwriting paid plans. But Pat, do you want to talk about that a little bit?
我会让帕特对此发表评论。这与佣金关系不大，更多的是我们围绕一些承保付费计划的策略。帕特，你想谈谈这个问题吗？
Patrick Callahan 帕特里克-卡拉汉
Yes, Greg. Tricia's comments are centered around kind of John's comments as well around how much business we let in the front door. So we have more restricted bill plans in place. We have more verification to require additional checks and make sure we get the accurate information on the risks that are coming in the door to ensure we're priced adequately.
好的，Greg。Tricia的评论主要围绕John的评论，关于我们让多少业务进入前门。所以我们有更多限制性的账单计划。我们有更多的验证，要求进行额外的检查，确保我们获得进门风险的准确信息，以确保我们的价格合理。
So that's -- when we talk about non-rate actions, those are the primary things that we are leaning into lifting in some markets as we approach the end of the year. Your point about lead gen and actually spending more, that would be a 2024 thing, where once we're confident that we put the 96 in the books for calendar year '23, then we would start investing more to generate demand as needed. And we've been out of the market for a while in those markets.
当谈到非费率措施时，这些是我们在接近年底时在一些市场中主要依靠提升的方面。你关于引导生成和实际上增加支出的观点，那将是2024年的事情，一旦我们确信我们已经为2023年的日历年度将96录入账簿，我们就会开始根据需要投资以刺激需求。我们已经在那些市场退出了一段时间。
So we do expect that, that will ramp back up, but it will be a ramp as we spend only what we need to, to efficiently and cost-effectively attract customers. We've seen that the hard market persists. We've seen there's a lot of competitors who still need to push rate through their systems and a lot right annual policies. So there's still a lot of rate effect to be had in the market on consumers. And we'll lean into that as we get more into the new year from a spend perspective.
因此，我们确实预期这将会逐步回升，但我们会根据需要进行投入，以高效且成本效益的方式吸引客户。我们看到硬市场仍然存在。我们看到有很多竞争对手仍然需要将费率推入他们的系统，并进行大量正确的年度政策调整。因此，在市场中对消费者仍然有很多费率效应。随着我们从支出的角度进入新的一年，我们将利用这一点。
Charles Peters 查尔斯-彼得斯
Great. I guess the other question, pivoting to some of the previous comments around the property business. You're definitely trending in the right direction from a combined ratio perspective, but it's still running above your 96 target for corporate-wide. Is it your objective that -- or your view that you're going to get that property business to a 96 combined ratio next year? It seems like it's been a drag on your consolidated results for several years now. I just -- or maybe you're using it as a loss leader to grab share in the Robinsons cohort? Just some updated views on that would be helpful.
很好。我想另一个问题是关于之前对房地产业务的一些评论。从综合比率的角度来看，你们的趋势无疑是正确的，但仍然高于你们为整个公司设定的 96% 的目标。你的目标，或者说你的观点，是让房地产业务的综合比率在明年达到96吗？几年来，它似乎一直拖累着你们的综合业绩。我只是 -- 或者说，你们把它当作一个亏损领头羊，以抢占罗宾逊集团的份额？如果能就这一问题提供一些最新观点，将会有所帮助。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. We're not attempting to use it as a loss leader, I'll tell you that. It has been a drag. Overtime, when you look back, home has done pretty well. Now what we did was we should have probably seen the need to derisk a little bit in states like Florida, Texas, Louisiana and across the country. That's why we're doing that now. That's why we're investing in technology and segmentation, new product models.
是的。我们并不打算将其用作损失领导者，我告诉你。它一直是拖累。回顾过去，家庭保险业务做得相当不错。现在我们所做的是，我们本应在佛罗里达、德克萨斯、路易斯安那等州以及全国进行一些风险分散。这就是我们现在正在做的事情。这就是我们正在投资技术和细分市场，新产品模型的原因。
So we do feel good. We have different target profit margins depending on if you're bundled or not, et cetera. But no, our desire -- I can't predict the future. I have no idea what's going to happen next year. But our goal is to continue our plan to derisk and make the target margins that we have in property and have that be a robust part of our book because we know the Robinsons cohort is super important to our future.
因此，我们感觉良好。根据捆绑与否，我们有不同的目标利润率。但是，我们的愿望--我无法预测未来。我不知道明年会发生什么。但我们的目标是继续执行我们的计划，降低风险，实现我们在房地产方面的目标利润率，并使其成为我们账簿中一个强大的部分，因为我们知道罗宾逊集团对我们的未来非常重要。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
And we have actually been exceeding the objectives we set out for the 2023 period in terms of growing more where we think -- historically, results are far less volatile in property and shrinking considerably in areas including Florida, as Tricia noted, that have been way more volatile from a weather perspective historically.
实际上，我们一直在超越我们为 2023 年设定的目标，在我们认为--从历史上看，业绩波动较小的房地产领域--增长更多，而在包括佛罗里达州在内的地区则大幅缩减，正如特里西娅所指出的，从天气角度看，佛罗里达州历来波动较大。
And just to the 96 point, as Tricia was noting, we priced to an aggregate 96 for the company. So by segment, we actually have different combined ratio targets and we think about those as all deriving a return on capital equivalent to or better than the personal auto business. So the 96 calendar year is our commitment to achieve that in aggregate. But below that, we are pricing the different targets based on the characteristics of each business.
关于 96%这一点，正如特里西娅所指出的，我们为公司定价的综合比率为 96%。因此，按照业务分部，我们实际上有不同的综合比率目标，我们认为这些目标都是为了获得相当于或优于个人汽车业务的资本回报率。因此，96 日历年是我们实现这一总体目标的承诺。但在此之下，我们会根据每项业务的特点来确定不同的目标。
利用软件算法推进业务的方式有可能和传统做法不一样。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore.
下一个问题来自 Evercore 公司的戴维-莫特马登（David Motemaden）。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
So I had a -- my first question was just on the auto accident year loss ratio, excluding catastrophes, and last quarter, in the presentation, you spoke about mix shift between renewal and new business and the benefit that, that could have having less new business could have on the loss ration. I'm wondering if you can just size how much of the improvement in the loss ratio this quarter is coming from just that lower new business as opposed to improvement on the renewal book?
我的第一个问题是关于汽车事故年度损失率（不包括巨灾），在上一季度的介绍中，你谈到了续保和新业务之间的组合变化，以及新业务减少对损失率的影响。我想知道，本季度损失率的改善有多少是来自于新业务的减少，而不是续保业务的改善？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
That's pretty tough to size and I think when we obviously renew, we will know more about you as a customer, but when we bring new business on, our intentions are that we reach our target profit margin.
我认为，当我们续约时，我们会更了解你作为客户的情况，但当我们引入新业务时，我们的目标是达到目标利润率。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
And I would offer that the rate actions we've taken have far larger influence on that accident year loss ratio than the new renewal mix. So as we noted, we had 5 points earned in just in the third quarter alone for our personal auto business. On a year-to-date basis, it's more than double that number. So when you get the denominator up significantly, that's the best way to improve. Well, that's -- obviously, there's the numerator, but that is where we have gotten most of the loss ratio improvement from. Obviously, severity moderating a bit this quarter has helped us considerably as well. But the rate that we've taken and continue to take is earning in and you're seeing that in the loss ratio.
我想说的是，我们所采取的费率行动对事故年损失率的影响远远大于新续保组合。因此，正如我们所指出的，仅在第三季度，我们的个人汽车业务就获得了 5 个百分点。从年初至今，这个数字翻了一番还多。因此，当分母显著增加时，这是改善的最佳途径。显然，还有分子，但这正是我们提高损失率的主要原因。很明显，本季度严重程度有所缓和也对我们有很大帮助。但是，我们已经采取并将继续采取的措施正在产生收益，你们可以从损失率中看到这一点。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
And then just a question, I guess, just on -- it seems like -- I mean, the retention has definitely been better than I would have thought. It's obviously a hard market out there. I guess has that surprised you at all and influenced at all how you guys are thinking about growth and maybe adding a little bit more business in 2024, just given how strong the retention is on the renewal book. And Pat, as you just said, that seems to have a better or more profound impact on the loss ratio than the new business?
然后，我想问一个问题，就是 -- 看起来 -- 我是说，留任情况肯定比我想象的要好。外面的市场显然很艰难。我想这是否让你们感到惊讶，是否影响了你们对增长的思考，以及在2024年增加更多的业务，因为续保的保留率是如此之高。帕特，正如你刚才所说，这似乎比新业务对损失率有更好或更深远的影响？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I mean, I don't know if it surprised us because we watched the data. It certainly is -- delights us, I would say that. And what we want to do, really, the thing with retention is having some stable rates. And we have been increasing rates as has the competition in an extraordinary fashion based on inflation trends.
我的意思是，我不知道这是否让我们感到惊讶，因为我们观察了数据。当然，我们很高兴。实际上，我们想要做的是，保持一定的稳定利率。根据通胀趋势，我们和竞争对手一样，一直在以非同寻常的方式提高费率。
So what we'd love to do is have tremendous growth in 2024, but have some stability around the trends. And I was saying I haven't been able to say on this call for a while, small bites of the Apple where we take a really small rate and our customers feel that makes sense and they don't shop. So that's our goal. But we're very happy with the retention of both the trailing 3 and a trailing 12. We'd like to see some stability, and we will grow as fast as we can as long as we see that stability.
我们希望在2024年实现巨大的增长，但同时也希望趋势保持稳定。我之前在电话会议上提到过，我们希望采取小幅度的费率调整，即我们只提高一点点费率，这样我们的客户会觉得合理，就不会去比较购物了。这是我们的目标。但我们对3个月和12个月的留存率都非常满意。我们希望看到一些稳定性，只要我们看到这种稳定性，我们就会尽可能快地增长。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
And I'll state the obvious, but we're coming off a fairly low point in terms of retention last year. So last year, we were ahead of the market in taking rate, and I would think of it in sort of like maybe 10 points ahead of the market in terms of taking rate that we saw the need for. And as our customers got those rate increases, they shop and they could still find a better rate.
显然，我们从去年的留存率低点开始恢复。所以去年，我们在提高费率方面领先市场，我可能会认为我们在提高费率方面比市场高出大约10个百分点，我们看到了这种需求。而当我们的客户接受了这些费率增长后，他们会比较购物，仍然能找到更好的费率。
Competitors now have caught up, and in some cases, actually surpassed us on rate take and consequently, even though our rates continue to rise as customers shop, they're less able to find a better rate. And so our year-over-year renewal rates, the changes are robust and we're getting back closer to PLEs lifetime expectancies that we've enjoyed previously. We're not yet back up to historical highs, but as Tricia noted, we're delighted with the trends we're seeing, and we think they're going to continue.
竞争对手现在已经迎头赶上，在某些情况下，实际上在费率收取方面甚至超过了我们。因此，即使我们的费率随着客户的比较购物继续上升，他们越来越难以找到更好的费率。因此，我们同比的续保率变化是强劲的，我们正在回到之前享受过的PLE终身预期水平。我们还没有那么高，但正如Tricia所指出的，我们对我们看到的趋势感到高兴，我们认为它们将继续下去。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.
下一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
My first question, you guys pointed out, right, that you're a little bit above the 96% year-to-date. You guys have a sense of what rate you're going to earn in, in the fourth quarter, right? And it sounds like loss trend, right, in the Q3 got better relative to the Q2. So I'm sure you have expectations there as well. So what's like the biggest swing variable as we go into the next few months of earnings with whether you ultimately get below that 96% target for the year?
我的第一个问题是，你们指出，今年迄今为止，你们的收益率略高于 96%。你们对第四季度的收益率有感觉吧？听起来第三季度的亏损趋势比第二季度要好。所以我相信你们也有预期。那么，在接下来几个月的收益中，最大的波动变量是什么？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I think weather is huge. And so watching that closely. We have another 3 points to earn in on the private passenger auto side. On the Commercial Line side, we've been earning in rate from both '21 -- '22 and '23 revision. But a lot of our improvement, we believe, in Commercial Lines calendar year as been through non-rate actions. And so we're headed into '24 with a lot of rate really starting to earn on the commercial line side. But we do some analysis quite often of what we think we need to do to get there. We care deeply about expenses. So as a company, we've been trying to reduce expenses and we can continuously do that. And I think weather is going to be the big variable, Elyse.
天气因素非常重要。所以我们会密切关注。在私人乘用车方面，我们还有3个百分点的费率增长空间。在商业保险方面，我们已经从2021年、2022年和2023年的修订中获得了费率增长。但我们认为，商业保险在日历年的很多改进都是通过非费率措施实现的。因此，我们将带着大量费率进入2024年，在商业保险方面开始获得收益。但我们经常进行分析，思考我们需要做些什么才能达到目标。我们非常关心费用。因此，作为一个公司，我们一直在尝试降低费用，并且我们可以持续这样做。我认为天气将是最大的变量，Elyse。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay. And then my second question, advertising has come up a bunch on this call. So it sounds like the clock, obviously, in the calendar right, resets, we get to the start of next year. So will -- is that when you expect to kind of push more advertising considering we're restarting and then you can go for the 96% next year? I'm just trying to think through the thought process around when you ultimately turn on the marketing machine. And then how do you balance not growing too fast too soon, recognizing right, that's what happened at the start of this year?
好的。我的第二个问题是，广告在这次电话会议中多次被提及。所以听起来，显然，随着日历的翻页，我们来到了明年的开始。那么，这是你期望开始加大广告投入的时候吗，考虑到我们正在重启，然后你可以在明年追求96%的目标？我只是在思考关于何时最终启动营销机器的思考过程。然后你如何在不过快增长和过早增长之间找到平衡，认识到，对吧，这就是今年年初发生的事情？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I can let Pat comment a little bit, but our intentions are if we see -- if weather is sort of normal in the next several months. And we see some of the non-rate actions that we're pulling back on to achieve new business, then we are going to be able to likely put a lot more media spend into play in the first quarter. But a lot of that depends on what we're seeing. A lot of it depends on how much we need to. But I think that excites us because we do sort of get the start of -- the clock starts over. But Pat, do you want to add anything?
是的，我可以让帕特（Pat）稍作评论，但我们的打算是，如果我们看到--如果未来几个月天气正常。而且我们看到了一些非费率行动，我们正在收回这些行动以实现新业务，那么我们将有可能在第一季度投入更多的媒体支出。但这很大程度上取决于我们看到的情况。这很大程度上取决于我们需要多少。但我认为，这让我们很兴奋，因为我们确实有了一个新的开始。帕特，你有什么要补充的吗？
Patrick Callahan 帕特里克-卡拉汉
Yes. The only thing I would add is last first quarter. So first quarter of 2023, we had sort of the perfect storm of lots of ad spend in a really hard market. And what we don't yet know is how much ambient shopping remains in market and how much shopping fatigue could be in market.
是的。我想补充的是，2023年第一季度，我们经历了一场完美的风暴，大量的广告支出出现在一个非常艰难的市场环境中。我们还不清楚市场上还剩下多少环境购物，以及市场上可能存在多少购物疲劳。
So John's point about when shopping pays off because you find a lower price that reinforces or rewards that. If consumers shop in the first quarter and our rates are similar to where they are, there may not be as much ambient shopping and switching available in market. So we don't yet know. But as Tricia mentioned, there's markets where we're off most markets for local advertising today, but there were markets we were off at the start of this year too. So it's very dynamic based on our lifetime expectation of hitting our profit targets for new business that we generate during the period.
约翰的观点是，当购物得到回报时，因为你找到了更低的价格，这会加强或奖励这种行为。如果消费者在第一季度购物，而我们的费率与现在相似，市场上可能不会有太多的环境购物和转换。所以我们还不清楚。但正如特里西亚提到的，有些市场我们今天没有进行大部分市场的本地广告，但今年初也有市场我们没有进行广告。因此，这是非常动态的，基于我们对在该期间产生的新业务达到我们利润目标的终身期望。
So dynamic system, and you're right that we will start spending more after the first of the year, but we will be leaning into that and ramping that up as needed depending on how much is available in the ambient market and which markets we feel we've got adequate rates to support the ad spend.
因此，动态系统，你说得没错，我们将在今年年初后开始增加支出，但我们会根据环境市场的可用资金以及我们认为有足够费率支持广告支出的市场，在必要时进行倾斜和提升。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪思（Brian Meredith）。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
I'm just curious and kind of going maybe a little bit to Elyse's question. Given the experience we saw earlier this year where you guys are growing really quickly and then all of a sudden, you saw this pop in inflationary pressures, and given the continued uncertainty just from a macroeconomic perspective, are you probably going to -- are you going to be a little more cautious to kind of open up that growth engine this time around, maybe get a little bit more data under your belts before you're going to go after it?
我只是很好奇，也许有点像伊丽丝的问题。鉴于我们今年早些时候看到的经验，你们的增长速度非常快，但突然之间，你们看到通胀压力骤增，而且从宏观经济的角度来看，不确定性依然存在，你们这次是否会在打开增长引擎方面更加谨慎，也许在获得更多的数据之后再采取行动？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, I think we will be more cautious, and that's why -- that's sort of the beauty around the 96 and the discipline around the 96, whether it's on a calendar year or a cohort year. And that's why we'll slowly pull back, watch, test, and we'll only be pulling back in the states where we feel like we've got enough rate. And so that's a little bit of a limiting factor. But we want to grow, but I do think that there's been so much uncertainty that we will watch it closely. So we aren't in the same position where we have to crank up rates like we did this year.
是的，我认为我们会变得更加谨慎，这就是96和围绕96的纪律之美，无论是在日历年还是同期年。这就是为什么我们会慢慢收回，观察，测试，我们只会在那些我们认为已经有足够的费率的州收回。所以这是一个有点限制的因素。但我们想要增长，但我确实认为由于存在如此多的不确定性，我们会密切观察。所以我们不是处于和今年一样必须提高费率的相同位置。
弄不好会成为大型科技企业的领地，传统企业中只有Amazon从长工变成地主，未来的商业形式有可能和现在很不一样。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Makes sense. And then the second question, Tricia and I, we haven't talked about this topic just for a while, and I saw it in a letter to the BOP business. Maybe you could talk a little bit about how the rollout on the BOP is going. I know you're in 46 states. How is the profitability trend in that business relative to what you kind of thought it was going to be? And at some point, are we going to see that start to kind of ramp up from a growth perspective?
有道理第二个问题，特里西娅和我，我们已经有一段时间没有谈到这个话题了，我是在给 BOP 业务的一封信中看到的。也许你们可以谈谈 BOP 的推广情况。我知道你们在 46 个州开展业务。该业务的盈利趋势与你的预期相比如何？从增长的角度来看，我们是否会在某个时候看到该业务开始增长？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes, we're super excited about how many states we are in BOP, it's still a relatively small part of the business. So we won't actually comment on it publicly. And it is -- we have targets, and of course, with new business, when you think about acquisition costs and understanding loss costs, it's obviously going to be higher than stable business, but it is what we expect and so we'll continue to watch that and grow the business as we get more comfortable.
是的，我们对 BOP 在美国这么多州的发展感到非常兴奋，但这还只是我们业务中相对较小的一部分。因此，我们不会公开对此发表评论。当然，对于新业务，当你考虑收购成本和了解损失成本时，它显然会高于稳定业务，但这正是我们所期望的，因此我们会继续关注，并在我们更加适应的情况下发展业务。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. So no surprises so far?
太好了到目前为止还没有惊喜吗？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Exactly. Yes. 没错。没错
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with Stifel.
下一个问题来自 Stifel 公司的 Meyer Shields。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
As we get back to what should be normal, is there any way of quantifying both in terms of growth and profitability how much impact the fact that you're fully pricing to the telematics curves have had before COVID? I assume that you're probably generating excess profits for growing a little bit less quickly than you could have been?
当我们回到正常状态时，是否有办法从增长和利润率两方面量化，在 COVID 之前，你们完全按照远程信息处理曲线定价的事实有多大影响？我认为，你们可能会因为增长速度稍慢而产生超额利润？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Well, we don't price fully to the curve. We have expanded on both the surcharge and the discount. I think it's pretty tough to quantify to that is really what I'd say.
我们并没有完全按照曲线定价。我们扩大了附加费和折扣。我认为这很难量化。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
Yes. So I think Tricia is right, we've been expanding our offering to price closer to the curve over time, and we've been expanding to continuous monitoring in the UBI world to collect more data and to be able to more continuously price policies more accurately.
是的。所以我认为Tricia说得对，我们一直在扩大我们的服务范围，随着时间的推移，我们的价格更接近曲线，我们也一直在扩大UBI世界的持续监测，以收集更多的数据，并能够更持续地更准确地定价保单。
As far as specific quantification of how much growth is coming from and the profit coming from it, I wouldn't comment on that at this point. And it's a meaningful piece of our business. It's our most powerful rating variable. And we continue to invest in both the technology to lower the expense of collecting data and to analyze the data more precisely to price more accurately over time on a continuous basis. So I think we're in probably 50% of our earned premium states. I think 29 states have continuous monitoring at this point in time. So we feel really good about continuing to invest to maintain or even widen that moat that we think we have in the issues-based insurance space.
至于具体量化的增长幅度和利润来源，目前我不会发表评论。这是我们业务中很有意义的一部分。它是我们最有力的评级变量。我们将继续投资于技术，以降低收集数据的成本，并对数据进行更精确的分析，从而随着时间的推移不断进行更准确的定价。因此，我认为我们已经在 50%的已赚保费州开展了这项工作。我想目前有 29 个州在进行持续监控。因此，我们对继续投资以保持甚至扩大我们在基于问题的保险领域所拥有的护城河感到非常满意。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. That's very helpful. The second question, and again, this is more thematic. There are clearly a lot of smaller personal auto insurers out there that frankly probably can't compete. Does Progressive look at the option of maybe buying renewal rights as opposed to simply outcompeting in the marketplace? Is that more or less economically efficient?
好的。这非常有帮助。第二个问题，同样，这是一个更主题性的问题。显然，市场上有很多规模较小的个人汽车保险公司，坦白说，它们可能无法竞争。Progressive是否考虑过可能购买续保权而不是简单地在市场上竞争？这在经济上是否更有效？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I think that depends. We always look to -- if we can do book rolls. But like you said, a smaller company is going to have a more difficult time investing in technology, segmentation, brand, distribution and so as you've seen in this last couple of years, we've gotten some of that on itself. So I wouldn't want to pay a premium to get that -- to get those policies on our book. I think we can get them regardless just based on our size and our efficiency.
我认为这要看情况。我们一直在寻找 -- 如果我们能做账面滚动。但就像你说的，小公司在技术、细分、品牌、分销方面的投资会更加困难，所以正如你在过去几年中看到的，我们自己也得到了一些。因此，我不希望为了获得这些保单而支付溢价。我认为，无论如何，基于我们的规模和效率，我们都能获得这些保单。
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions]. The next question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.
[接线员指示]下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Tracy Benguigui。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Just some quick math. You achieved 16% year-to-date rate increases in auto. And in the 10-Q, you said that you plan to take an additional 3% in 4Q, so that will get us something like 19% for the full year. I think last quarter, you penciled in 17% personal auto rate increases for the full year. So it feels like you need to take more rate now. It's not a lot, but can you share the key drivers behind this additional rate needs?
简单算一下截至目前，你们的汽车保险费率增长了 16%。在 10-Q 报告中，你表示计划在第四季度再增加 3%，这样全年的增幅将达到 19%。我想，上一季度，你预计全年个人汽车费率将增长 17%。所以现在感觉你需要提高费率。虽然不是很多，但你能分享一下额外费率需求背后的主要驱动因素吗？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean I think -- I don't know that I would read too much into a point difference. Sometimes, it could be a delay in having it approved. We have to go through each department, but the same trends that we have been seeing, that we've talked about are what the rate is about. So whether it's attorney reps or fixing cars, so [indiscernible] comment any more on that?
是的，我的意思是，我想--我不知道我会对一个点的差异解读太多。有时，这可能是审批的延迟。我们必须对每个部门进行审查，但我们所看到的趋势和我们所讨论的趋势是一致的。所以，无论是律师代表还是修车，[听不清]还有什么意见吗？
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
Our forward-looking rate action statements its dynamic, obviously, as you know, and it is down to the state and segment level. So it's important to remind how we manage the business. We have product managers who manage at the state and product level, and even in some cases, lower than that, and they are all assessing what is going on in their specific marketplaces, trends, projecting the trends, understanding as we noted, what they plan to do in terms of non-rate actions as well as ad spend. So there's a lot that goes into the aggregate rate changes we take and that we say we plan to take. And again, it's going to be dynamic.
我们的前瞻性利率行动声明显然是动态的，正如大家所知道的那样，它细化到了州和分部层面。因此，提醒我们如何管理业务很重要。我们的产品经理在州和产品层面进行管理，甚至在某些情况下比州和产品层面更低，他们都在评估其特定市场的发展情况、趋势、预测趋势，并如我们所指出的，了解他们在非费率行动以及广告支出方面的计划。因此，我们所采取的和我们所说的计划采取的总体费率变化，都会涉及到很多因素。同样，这也将是动态的。
We obviously have seen severity moderate back down to the single digits, which is fantastic. Where that goes, it's tough to know. But from what we can see, we think we're moving it to a more normal environment when it comes to change in claim severity. But in aggregate, it's very hard to dissect that 19 or 17, and it's changed today. I assure you.
显然，我们已经看到严重程度有所缓和，回落到个位数，这真是太好了。至于以后会怎样，还很难说。但从我们可以看到的情况来看，我们认为在理赔严重性变化方面，我们正在向一个更正常的环境迈进。但从总体上看，19%或 17%的赔付率很难说清，但今天已经发生了变化。我向你们保证
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. Great. It also looks like you had modest favorable personal auto prior year development this quarter. The adverse mostly came from commercial lines. Was that because you feel good about adequately reserving the Florida [indiscernible] reform? Were there other factors? And I'm curious if you're seeing reopen claims in the quarter?
好的。很棒。看来你们本季度的个人汽车保险上年赔付情况有所好转。不利的主要是来自商业保险。这是因为你们对佛罗里达[听不清]改革的充足准备金感到满意吗？还有其他因素吗？我很好奇你们本季度是否看到了重新开放的索赔？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
That's exactly right. We're feeling much more confident in both the House Bill and fixing cars.
正是如此。我们对众议院法案和修车都更有信心了。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. And I know you touched on it last quarter, but can you remind me what caused the reopen claims in the first half of the year that you haven't seen in the past? What it changed?
好的。我知道你上个季度提到过，但你能提醒我一下是什么导致了上半年重新开放的索赔，而在过去你没有看到过吗？是什么发生了变化？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean, there's a couple of things that happen, but you can write an estimate. And then when the person, the customer, whether it's an insurer or claimant, goes to get the car repaired, so we paid -- we've made that payment, the feature is closed. And it gets into the shop and they find more damage and it's maybe delayed repair, it increases rental. So it really was the lead time with -- to get parts. It's labor rates, it's length of time, so rentals increased. So there are a couple of different factors that have gone into fixing cars.
是的，我的意思是，会发生一些事情，但你可以写一份估价单。然后当人，客户，不管是保险公司还是索赔人，去修车的时候，我们已经付过款了，功能已经关闭了。当汽车进入修理厂后，他们会发现更多的损坏，这可能会延误维修，增加租金。因此，真正的问题在于零部件的准备时间。这是人工费，是时间长度，所以租金增加了。因此，修车有几个不同的因素。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
And on the injury side, there was a lot of Florida influence there -- I'm sorry. And so House Bill 837 drove an influx of attorney representation and lawsuits and we had to take reserve increases to reflect what we believe the future cost of setting where the claims would be.
在伤害方面，佛罗里达州的影响很大 -- 对不起。因此，第 837 号众议院法案推动了大量的律师代理和诉讼，我们不得不增加准备金，以反映我们认为未来的索赔成本。
Tracy Benguigui 特蕾西-本吉吉
Okay. So you don't wait until an actual claim closes, you estimate what the close would look like. Was it maybe perhaps premature in calling those claims closed?
好的，所以你不是等到实际的索赔结案，而是估计结案的情况。把这些索赔案称为已结案是否为时过早？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
No. It's the way our system works. So we have reserves set for different line coverages. And then if those change and they change dynamically not one file or two files, that's when we know we need to strengthen our reserves.
不，这是我们系统的工作方式。因此，我们为不同的保险项目设置了储备金。如果这些保障发生变化，而且不是一个文件或两个文件发生动态变化，我们就知道需要加强储备金。
Unidentified Company Representative
身份不明的公司代表
But yes, we are absolutely estimating the ultimate loss cost with the best information we have at this time.
但是，是的，我们绝对是根据目前所掌握的最佳信息来估算最终损失成本的。
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I think it's very common in our business to have supplements because you can have parts of vehicles that are -- you can't even see. So suspension and other parts. So you write what you can see, you shouldn't write more or less. And then as the claim evolves, especially with collision or property damage, you'll be able to see more. Sometimes it's nothing, but there could be supplements. But that's really common.
我认为在我们的业务中，补充索赔是非常常见的，因为可能有部分车辆部件是——你甚至看不见。比如悬挂系统和其他部件。所以你写下你能看到的，你不应该写得更多或更少。然后随着索赔的发展，特别是碰撞或财产损失，你会看到更多。有时什么都没有，但有时会有补充索赔。但这是非常常见的。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski with BMO.
下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Mike Zaremski。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Just one on Florida. So I guess now that the -- I guess, the pig has made its way through the python in terms of reserving mostly. Are you seeing any positive influences from the legislation on the recently written business? I know you guys have a big pit book in Florida? Or is it just too soon to tell?
佛罗里达州的情况，现在看起来，储备金的“猪”已经通过“蟒蛇”的消化过程。你们是否看到最近写的业务中有任何来自立法的积极影响？我知道你们在佛罗里达有很大的预定书。还是说现在判断还为时过早？
Susan Griffith 苏珊-格里菲斯
I'd think it's too soon to tell. We anticipate that it will be positive, but we have to let this play out a bit.
我认为现在下结论还为时过早。我们预计这将是积极的，但我们必须让事情发展得更快一些。
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
That appears to have been our last question. So that concludes our event. So I will hand the call back over to you for the closing scripts.
这似乎是我们的最后一个问题。我们的活动到此结束。现在，我把电话交还给大家，请大家致闭幕词。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's Third Quarter Investor Event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. You may now disconnect.
Progressive 公司第三季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关此次活动的重播信息。您现在可以断开连接。
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