2024-01-24 W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
W. R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call January 24, 2024 5:00 PM ET
W. R. Berkley Corporation (NYSE:WRB) 2023 年第四季度收益电话会议 2024 年 1 月 24 日 下午 5:00 美东时间
Company Participants 公司参与者
Rob Berkley - President and CEO
罗布·伯克利 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Rich Baio - EVP and CFO
Rich Baio - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Bill Berkley - Executive Chairman
比尔·伯克利 - 执行主席
Conference Call Participants
电话会议参与者
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Mark Hughes - Truist 马克·休斯 - Truist
Mike Zaremski - BMO Capital Markets
迈克·扎雷姆斯基 - BMO 资本市场
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
大卫·莫特马登 - Evercore ISI
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Ryan Tunis - 自主研究
Meyer Shields - KBW 梅耶·希尔兹 - KBW
Brian Meredith - UBS 布赖恩·梅雷迪思 - 瑞银 UBS
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
乔什·尚克 - 美国银行
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies 亚伦·基纳 - 杰弗里斯
Alex Scott - Goldman Sachs
亚历克斯·斯科特 - 高盛
Scott Heleniak - RBC Capital Markets
斯科特·赫伦尼亚克 - 加拿大皇家银行资本市场
Operator 操作员
Good day, and welcome to the W. R. Berkley Corporation's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Earnings Call. Today's conference call is being recorded.
早上好，欢迎参加 W. R. Berkley 公司 2023 年第四季度和全年收益电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音。
The speakers' remarks may contain forward-looking statements. Some of the forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking words, including, without limitation, beliefs, expects or estimates. We caution you that such forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation by us that the future plans, estimates or expectations contemplated by us will, in fact, be achieved.
演讲者的讲话可能包含前瞻性声明。其中一些前瞻性声明可以通过使用前瞻性词语来识别，包括但不限于信念、期望或估计。我们提醒您，这些前瞻性声明不应被视为我们对未来计划、估计或期望的代表。
Please refer to our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 and our other filings made with the SEC for a description of the business environment in which we operate and the important factors that may materially affect our results. W. R. Berkley Corporation is not under any obligation and expressly disclaims any such obligation to update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a result of the new information, future events or otherwise.
请参阅我们截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日的年度报告 10-K 表格，以及我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的其他文件，了解我们经营的业务环境和可能对我们业绩产生重大影响的重要因素。W. R. Berkley Corporation 没有义务，明确否认更新或更改其前瞻性声明的义务，无论是因为新信息、未来事件或其他原因。
I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkley. Please go ahead, sir.
我现在想把电话转给 Rob Berkley 先生。请讲，先生。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Sarah, thank you very much, and good afternoon all and welcome to our fourth quarter call, and for that matter full year '23 call. In addition to me, you also have Bill Berkley, Executive Chairman on the call; as well as Rich Baio, Chief Financial Officer of the Company.
Sarah，非常感谢，下午好，欢迎大家参加我们的第四季度电话会议，以及全年'23 电话会议。除了我之外，您还有 Bill伯克利，执行主席在电话会议上；以及公司的首席财务官 Rich Baio。
We're going to follow our usual agenda where very shortly I'm going to hand it over to Rich. He's going to walk us through some highlights from the quarter. Once he's completed his comments, I'll offer a couple of thoughts at my own and then we'll be pleased to open it up for Q&A.
我们将按照我们通常的议程进行，很快我将把话题交给 Rich。他将带领我们回顾本季度的一些亮点。一旦他完成了他的评论，我将提出一些自己的想法，然后我们将很高兴地开放问题和回答环节。
Before I hand it over to Rich, I did just want to offer a thought or two and for some participants who is probably won't be new to, I guess, a discussion that we've had in the past. For our organization, there is without a doubt amongst all of our colleagues, a shared recognition that the goal of the exercise is value-creation.
在我把它交给 Rich 之前，我只是想提出一两个想法，对于一些参与者来说，可能不会是新鲜事，我猜，这是我们过去讨论过的一个话题。对于我们的组织，毫无疑问，在我们所有同事中，有一个共同的认识，那就是这项活动的目标是创造价值。
We approach this through a lens that we've again touched on in the past, but I'll flag it again, a lens that we referred to is risk-adjusted return. All returns are not created equal. One needs to consider the type of risk that you're taking on in order to achieve that return.
我们通过一个镜头来看待这个问题，这是我们过去再次提到过的，但我会再次强调，我们所提到的镜头是风险调整后的回报。所有回报并不相同。为了实现这种回报，人们需要考虑所承担的风险类型。
And in contemplating that risk, one needs to consider volatility as a component of that. One is to ask themselves the question. Am I getting paid enough for that risk? And of course in considering that, what role volatility plays.
在考虑到这种风险的同时，人们需要将波动性视为其中的一个组成部分。一个问题是要问自己这个问题。我是否得到足够的报酬来承担这种风险？当然，在考虑这一点时，波动性扮演了什么角色。
In the fourth quarter of '23, there should be many market participants that report good numbers. But I think that one needs to look beyond just a quarter. One needs to look at the year. One needs to look at the past several years. When it comes to value creation, it's not just about a step forward. It's about consistently taking steps forward, and it's about avoiding taking steps backwards.
在'23 年第四季度，应该会有许多市场参与者报告良好的数字。但我认为人们需要超越仅仅一个季度。人们需要看整个年份。人们需要看过去几年。在价值创造方面，不仅仅是向前迈进，而是要始终向前迈进，要避免后退。
When you look at the results of our quarter, without a doubt, they are very strong, very robust by any measure. But I would encourage people to look at the full year and look at the past many years and our ability to create value, taking into account the risk that we are accepting in order to achieve those returns, is really the cornerstone why we've been able to build value for shareholders so successfully over many years. This quarter and this year, no exception.
当您看到我们本季度的业绩时，毫无疑问，无论从任何角度来看，它们都非常强劲，非常稳健。但我鼓励人们看全年的业绩，回顾过去多年以及我们创造价值的能力，考虑到我们为了实现这些回报而承担的风险，这确实是我们能够在多年来为股东成功建立价值的基石。本季度和本年度也不例外。
So to that end, before I hand it over to Rich, I would like to thank and congratulate my colleagues throughout the organization on a really outstanding quarter, outstanding year, and yet another year of a job very well done. Also, on behalf of my colleagues, I would like to thank our shareholders for allowing us the opportunity and the privilege for managing capital on their behalf.
因此，在我将其交给 Rich 之前，我想要感谢并祝贺整个组织中的同事们度过了一个非常出色的季度、出色的一年，以及又一年出色的工作。也代表我的同事们，我想要感谢我们的股东们，感谢他们给予我们管理资本的机会和特权。
保险是一个对资本很敏感的行业。
I will pause there and Rich, over to you. What do you have for us?
我会在这里暂停，Rich，轮到你了。你有什么给我们？
Rich Baio
Thanks, Rob. Appreciate it, and, good afternoon, everyone.
谢谢，罗布。感谢，大家下午好。
The Company continued to report record-setting financial results in the quarter, leading to an outstanding full year. Net income increased to $397 million or $1.47 per share compared with $382 million or $1.37 per share in the prior year quarter. Annualized return on beginning-of-year equity was 23.6%. Record operating income increased more than 21% to $392 million or $1.45 per share with an annualized return on beginning-of-year equity of 23.2%.
公司在本季度继续报告创纪录的财务业绩，从而带来了全年的出色表现。净收入增加到3.97亿美元，或每股1.47美元，与去年同期的3.82亿美元，或每股1.37美元相比。年初股本的年化回报率为23.6%。创纪录的营业收入增长超过21%，达到3.92亿美元，或每股1.45美元，年初股本的年化回报率为23.2%。
Our extreme ownership in maximizing risk-adjusted return and everything we do contributed to our record full year underwriting income, net investment income, operating income, and net income. Our top line growth accelerated throughout the year with the fourth quarter reflecting a 12% increase in net premiums written to more than $2.7 billion, bringing the full year to a record of almost $11 billion.
我们在最大化风险调整回报方面的极端所有权以及我们所做的一切都为我们创下了创纪录的全年承保收入、净投资收入、营业收入和净收入做出了贡献。我们的收入增长在整个年度加速，第四季度反映出净已承保保费增长了 12%，达到了超过 27 亿美元，使全年达到了近 110 亿美元的纪录。
On a constant foreign currency exchange rate basis, the quarterly and full year growth was adversely impacted by approximately 50 basis points due to the weakening U.S. dollar. On a segment basis, insurance grew 12.3% to more than $2.4 billion in the quarter from rate improvement and exposure growth. The Reinsurance & Monoline Excess segment increased 10.2% to more than $300 million. This marks a record level for full year gross and net premiums written for each segment.
根据恒定的外币汇率基础，由于美元走弱，季度和全年增长受到了约 50 个基点的不利影响。按部门划分，保险业由于费率改善和风险增长，季度增长了 12.3%，达到了超过 24 亿美元。再保险和单一风险超额部门增长了 10.2%，超过 3 亿美元。这标志着每个部门全年毛保费和净保费书写的历史最高水平。
Turning to underwriting performance. Record quarterly pre-tax underwriting income increased 8.2% to $316 million, representing a calendar year combined ratio of 88.4%. Current accident year catastrophe losses were flat at 1.2 loss ratio points for the comparable quarters with $32 million and $30 million reported in fourth quarter 2023 and 2022, respectively.
转向承保业绩。创纪录的季度税前承保收入增加了 8.2%，达到 3.16 亿美元，代表着一个 88.4%的年综合比率。当前事故年灾难损失在可比季度保持不变，损失比率点为 1.2%，分别在 2023 年第四季度和 2022 年报告了 3,200 万美元和 3,000 万美元。
Prior year development was favorable by $1 million, bringing our current accident year loss ratio ex-cats to 58.8%. The improvement over the prior year's quarter of 50 basis points was primarily due to business mix and lower attritional property losses.
上一年的发展趋势对我们有利，达到了100万美元的正面影响，使我们当前事故年度的损失比率（不包括巨灾）降至58.8%。与上一年同期相比，损失比率改善了50个基点，这主要是由于业务组合的优化和财产损耗的减少。
The expense ratio increased 60 basis points to 28.4% in the current quarter, flat to the 2023 full year. The increase from the prior year's quarter is consistent with our prior communication that being lower ceding commissions resulting from business mix and reinsurance structure changes over the past year.
费用比率在本季度上升了60个基点，达到28.4%，与2023年全年持平。与上一年同期相比的增长与我们之前的沟通一致，即由于过去一年业务组合和再保险结构的变化，导致分出佣金降低。
In addition, increased compensation costs and startup operating unit expenses have also contributed to the small increase. We expect that our 2024 full year expense ratio should be comfortably below 30%, taking into consideration, investments in such things like technology and data and analytics as well as new startup operating unit expenses. So in summary, our current accident year combined ratio, excluding catastrophes of the quarter was 87.2%.
此外，增加的薪酬成本和新成立的运营单位费用也促成了这一小幅增长。我们预计，考虑到在技术和数据分析等事项上的投资，以及新成立的运营单位费用，我们2024年全年的费用比率应该轻松低于30%。总结来说，我们当前事故年度的综合比率（不包括巨灾）本季度为87.2%。
Record quarterly pre-tax net investment income increased more than 35% to $313 million, bringing the full year to more than $1 billion for the first time in the Company's history. The combination of our short-duration and record level operating cash flow of more than $2.9 billion in the full year has positioned us well to invest in securities with higher interest rates.
季度税前净投资收入创纪录地增长了35%，达到3.13亿美元，使全年收入首次超过10亿美元。我们短期和创纪录水平的运营现金流在全年超过29亿美元，这使我们能够很好地投资于具有更高利率的证券。
The book yield on the fixed maturity portfolio continued to advance throughout the year to 4.4% on a 12-month basis. Our net invested assets increased approximately 10% in the past year to almost $27 billion. The credit quality of the portfolio remains very strong at AA minus with a duration on our fixed maturity portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents of 2.4 years.
固定到期投资组合的书面收益率在整个年度持续上升，达到了 12 个月基础上的 4.4%。我们的净投资资产在过去一年增长了约 10%，达到了近 270 亿美元。投资组合的信用质量仍然非常强，评级为 AA 减，固定到期投资组合的久期为 2.4 年，包括现金及现金等价物。
The investment funds improved from the consecutive quarter to $11 million although declined from the prior year in large part due to market value adjustments in the real estate fund area. As a reminder, the investment funds are generally reported on a one-quarter lag.
投资基金从连续季度改善至1100万美元，尽管与去年同期相比有所下降，这主要是由于房地产基金领域的市值调整。提醒一下，投资基金通常报告有一季度的滞后。
Foreign currency losses in the quarter related to the U.S. dollar weakening relative to most other currencies. It's worth noting, however, that the net effect to stockholders' equity is negligible since the improvement in our currency translation adjustment more than offset the amount reflected in the income statement. Stockholders' equity increased to a record of almost $7.5 billion.
本季度与外币相关的损失是由于美元相对于大多数其他货币的贬值。然而，值得注意的是，对股东权益的净影响微乎其微，因为我们货币汇率调整的改善远远抵消了损益表中所反映的金额。股东权益增至近75亿美元的创纪录水平。
Careful capital management throughout the year resulted in three special dividends of $0.50 each per share plus regular quarterly dividends totaling $501 million. In addition, share repurchases in the quarter of almost 1.6 million shares contributed to a total of more than 8.7 million shares repurchased during the year, amounting to $537 million or $61.69 per share.
今年全年的谨慎资本管理导致每股三次特别股息为 0.50 美元，加上总计 5.01 亿美元的常规季度股息。此外，季度股份回购近 160 万股，全年回购超过 870 万股，总额为 5.37 亿美元，每股 61.69 美元。
So our capital management during 2023 aggregated to more than $1 billion, the most we've returned to shareholders in one year while growing shareholders' equity more than 10% and maintaining more than adequate capital to support ongoing growth in the business. Book value per share increased to 11.6% and 25.5% in the quarter and full year before dividends and share repurchases.
因此，我们在2023年的资本管理总计超过10亿美元，这是我们一年中回报给股东最多的一次，同时股东权益增长超过10%，并保持了充足的资本以支持业务的持续增长。每股账面价值在季度和全年分别增长了11.6%和25.5%，这是在分红和股票回购之前的。
这个公司的成长很好，2014年股价10.26，目前55.18，上涨幅度=55.18/10.26=5.38，但这个公司的投资组合中有挂钩阿根廷通胀指标的债券，就是巴菲特说的做一些危机并且自己不擅长的事。
And Rob, with that, I'll turn it back to you.
罗布，我把话题转回给你。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Rich, thank you very much.
Rich，非常感谢。
Pretty attractive picture and even a conservative CPA couldn't make it sound anything other than encouraging. So a couple of observations on my end. Obviously, the top-line growth, we're pleased with the progress that we're making relative to the past few quarters. I think this is unfolding exactly as we suggested. Just calling out a few pieces of that puzzle, clearly some of the things that we had talked about as far as portfolios that we were separating from, much of that pig is through the Python.
一幅相当吸引人的图片，即使是保守的注册会计师也无法让它听起来不是鼓舞人心的。所以，我这边有几点观察。显然，对于顶线增长，我们对与过去几个季度相比我们取得的进展感到满意。我认为这正按照我们建议的方式展开。只是指出这个谜题的一些部分，显然，我们之前谈到的我们正在分离的投资组合，很多已经通过Python处理了。
The specialty market in general continues to be particularly attractive. I would highlight E&S especially, furthermore, I don't think that party is over. When we're looking at the submission flow, we continue to be quite encouraged. On the other hand, certainly, within the professional liability space and I'll call out public D&O as perhaps one of this extreme examples, I think it is delicate and treacherous and as you can see in the numbers in our release, we are treading thoughtfully as you'd expect.
专业市场总体上仍然特别有吸引力。我特别要强调的是E&S，此外，我不认为那个派对结束了。当我们看到提交流程时，我们仍然感到相当鼓舞。另一方面，当然，在专业责任领域，我会特别指出公共D&O（董事和高级职员责任保险）可能是这种极端例子之一，我认为这是微妙和危险的，正如你在我们发布的数字中看到的，我们正在谨慎地行事，正如你所期望的。
Rich touched on the rate coming in at 8%, which based on our assessment is pretty clear that we are comfortably exceeding any reasonable assumption around loss cost trend. And we are encouraged by that. I know that there are couple of chicken littles out there that are sort of hanging on the rate number that we share on a quarterly basis and some might say, well, geez, this is down below where it was in the third quarter and that is a factually correct statement.
Rich 提到了8%的费率，根据我们的评估，很明显我们轻松超过了任何合理的损失成本趋势假设。我们对此感到鼓舞。我知道外面有一些杞人忧天的人，他们总是在关注我们每个季度分享的费率数字，有些人可能会说，天哪，这比第三季度的数字还要低，这是一个事实正确的陈述。
That having been said, I would caution people to please understand that is really driven by mix of business and not just product line, but we have more than 60 different businesses under the Group umbrella and at any moment in time, some are growing more than others and rate opportunity is not equal amongst all the businesses in the Group, and obviously our product lines as well.
话虽如此，我要告诫大家，请理解这实际上是由商业组合驱动的，而不仅仅是产品线，但我们在集团旗下拥有 60 多个不同的业务，任何时刻，有些业务增长速度比其他业务更快，机会的比率在集团内各个业务之间并不相等，显然我们的产品线也是如此。
And just as a point of reference, you'll recall this time or fourth quarter '22, we got 6.9 points of rate ex-comp. So again, we are comfortably above where we were a year ago and we are confident again that we are exceeding trend by a meaningful margin.
作为参考，你会记得在2022年第四季度，我们的费率（不含赔付）增长了6.9个百分点。所以，我们再次确认，我们轻松地超过了一年前的位置，并且我们有信心，我们的增长幅度在很大程度上超过了趋势。
Again, Richie talked about the losses. I'm not going to get into that. The only thing that I will flag is that the paid loss ratio for the quarter came in at 48 and change, and for - I don't know how many quarters it is at this at this stage, it's just sort of floating between 46 and 49, which I think is really just a reflection of the rate action along with the underwriting discipline and focus of our colleagues that are allowing us to be arguably writing business at a pretty healthy margin, to say the least.
Richie 已经谈到了损失问题。我不会深入讨论。我唯一要指出的是，本季度的已付损失比率略高于48%，而且——我不知道这已经是第几个季度了，它就在46%到49%之间浮动，我认为这实际上只是反映了我们的费率行动，以及我们同事的核保纪律和专注，使我们能够至少可以说以相当健康的边际来承保业务。
Again, Rich touched on the expense piece. So I'm not going to rehash that other than I will make the one comment that for purposes of '24, we have some businesses that we started prior. And those are going to be impacting our expense ratio, though, even with those coming into the expense ratio, as they are in business for a full year, the fact of the matter is, that's going to be a relatively modest drag.
再次，Rich 提到了费用问题。我不会重复讨论，除了我要发表的一个评论，即为了2024年的目的，我们有一些业务是之前开始的。这些将会影响我们的费用比率，尽管这些业务已经运营了一整年，即使它们计入费用比率，实际上，这将是一个相对温和的拖累。
Going the other way as far as benefit goes, you'll see what happen with our written premium in Q3 and certainly in Q4 and we all know how that's going to travel through and impact the earned in '24, which will clearly be a positive.
就利益而言，我们将看到第三季度和第四季度的保费收入情况，我们都知道这将如何影响 2024 年的已赚保费，这显然将是一个积极的影响。
Last comment on the investment portfolio. Rich touched on that. As far as the book yield, as far as we're concerned, the new money rate for us still today, even with all the humming and honking about where interest rates are going, we still can put money to work at 5%-plus. So we think there's opportunity there.
对投资组合的最后评论。Rich 提到了这一点。就我们而言，尽管人们一直在谈论利率的走势，但我们仍然可以以 5%以上的利率投入资金。因此，我们认为那里存在机会。
As Rich mentioned, the duration, 2.4 years. We are looking for the window of opportunity to nudge that out. We are not in a rush. We have a slightly different view than much of the world as to where interest rates are going. And when the window of opportunity presents itself, you will likely see that 2.4 moving out from here.
正如 Rich 所提到的，持续时间为 2.4 年。我们正在寻找机会之窗，以推动其延长。我们并不急迫。我们对利率走势的看法与世界大部分地区有所不同。当机会之窗出现时，你很可能会看到这个 2.4 年的持续时间延长。
没有逻辑的自信，先做白痴再不想成为白痴，都是固定投资的投资有什么好吹的？
So again, I think it's exciting that we had a good quarter. It's rewarding and encouraging that we had a good year and top of - a good year in '22 and so on, but I think the most encouraging thing is when you look at where, I should say, how the table is set for '24 and beyond, we are in a very good place and not only on the underwriting side but on the investment side. So I believe in '24 and likely beyond, you are going to continue to see this economic model firing on all cylinders.
再次，我认为我们这个季度表现良好是令人兴奋的。我们度过了一个好年头，这是令人欣慰和鼓舞的，尤其是在2022年的好年头之后，但我认为最令人鼓舞的是，当你看到2024年及以后的前景时，我们处于一个非常好的境地，不仅在核保方面，而且在投资方面也是如此。因此，我相信在2024年及以后，你将继续看到这个经济模式全面发挥作用。
So that probably wasn't as brief as I promised, but it was relatively brief for me, and I'm going to pause there and Sarah, we would be very pleased to open it up for questions. Thank you.
所以可能没有我承诺的那么简短，但对我来说相对简短，我要在这里暂停一下，莎拉，我们很高兴为您提问。谢谢。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
[操作员指示] 您的第一个问题来自富国银行的 Elyse Greenspan。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Elyse. 你好，Elyse。
Elyse Greenspan 伊莉絲·格林斯潘
Hi. 你好。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Good afternoon. 下午好。
Elyse Greenspan 伊莉絲·格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good afternoon as well. My first question, Rob, probably picking up kind of where you were ending with your comments. Premium growth picked up right in the third and the fourth quarter ending at 12% in the fourth quarter. So as you think out to '24, is that kind of the baseline would you expect the quarters of '24 to all be 12% or greater, just given the momentum that you've been highlighting on the call?
嗨，谢谢。下午好。我的第一个问题，罗布，可能是接着你的评论结束的地方。保费增长在第三季度和第四季度迅速增长，第四季度达到 12%。所以当你考虑到'24 年时，你是否期望'24 年的每个季度都会是 12%或更高，考虑到你在通话中强调的势头？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes, no, Elyse, I appreciate that you and other colleagues are trying to build models and making certain assumptions. But the truth of the matter is that, tell me what market conditions are going to be. And I can give you a thoughtful answer to your question. There is nothing that I see today that leads me to believe that there isn't meaningful opportunity before us.
是的，Elyse，我很感激你和其他同事正在努力建立模型并做出一些假设。但事实是，告诉我市场条件将会如何。我可以给你一个深思熟虑的答案。我今天看到的一切都让我相信我们面前有着有意义的机会。
And again, do I think the 12% number is a reasonable number to use? Yes. Do I think it's possible to be better than that? It certainly is possible. But again tell me what the market conditions will be and then I can give you a more thoughtful answer as opposed to fumbling around on this end.
我再次想说，我认为 12%的数字是一个合理的数字吗？是的。我认为有可能做得更好吗？当然可能。但再次告诉我市场条件会是什么，然后我可以给你一个更深思熟虑的答案，而不是在这一端摸索。
即使能做到也没必要这么说，市场总会承认的，有点像傻子。
Elyse Greenspan 伊莉絲·格林斯潘
Well, maybe sticking with that market thought, right, we've heard a lot of conjecture about whether we start to see a broader strengthening of the casualty market. And so where are you on that? Do you think we'll start to see more broad-based pricing momentum within casualty lines as we go through 2024?
嗯，也许继续坚持这种市场思路，我们听到了很多关于是否开始看到伤亡市场更广泛加强的猜测。那么你对此有什么看法？你认为我们会在 2024 年逐渐看到更广泛的伤亡险定价势头吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I think you should. From our perspective, obviously, one of the big drivers there is social inflation and as far as we're concerned, it's alive and well. In addition to that, as far as another pressure point, I think, you're starting to see the reinsurance marketplace, particularly on the treaty side, but across-the-board starting to wake up and really recognize some of the challenges that the liability market faces.
我认为你应该。从我们的角度来看，显然，其中一个主要推动因素是社会通货膨胀，就我们而言，它仍然存在。除此之外，就另一个压力点而言，我认为，你开始看到再保险市场，特别是在条约方面，但全面来看，开始觉醒并真正认识到责任市场面临的一些挑战。
And the kind of pressure that you saw, the reinsurance marketplace, but on the property line, I think, while it may not be to the same extent, I think you're going to see them start to really focus on the - some of the liability lines and I think that will perhaps introduce further discipline into the casualty market.
你看到的那种压力，在再保险市场上，但在财产线上，我认为，虽然可能不会到同样程度，我认为你会看到他们开始真正关注一些责任线，我认为这可能会进一步引入纪律到意外伤害市场。
Quite frankly, if you go back in time, we've sort of been standing on our head and jumping up and down, talking about social inflation for many years. And we started pushing on rate pretty early and it's been good to see more recently people showing up to the party and recognizing what that loss trend is, recognizing what that means for this loss cost and taking action. So long story short, I think that there is some more legs to the liability market, particularly umbrella, auto liability, GL, and there's a lot of the excess market overall.
坦白说，如果你回顾过去，我们已经在很多年里一直在谈论社会通胀，并且我们很早就开始推动费率上涨，很高兴看到最近越来越多的人加入到这个行列，认识到损失趋势是什么，认识到这对损失成本意味着什么并采取行动。简而言之，我认为责任市场还有更多的增长空间，特别是伞式保险、汽车责任保险、一般责任保险，以及整个超额市场。
Elyse Greenspan 伊莉絲·格林斯潘
And then one more. You guys said $1 million, I think, a favorable development in the quarter. I know, we typically get more color when the K is filed. But any movements within lines or accident years that were more significant - the more significant nature in the fourth quarter.
然后再来一个。你们说 100 万美元，我认为，这是本季度一个有利的发展。我知道，我们通常在 K 文件提交时会得到更多细节。但在本季度内是否有更显著的线路或事故年份的变化 - 在第四季度更显著的性质。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Nothing that's particularly earth-shattering. I would say it's kind of more of the same. But if you're looking for more detail, I'd encourage you just give Karen or Rich a call and if you can't get one of them, just give me a buzz.
没有什么特别惊人的。我会说这更多的是一样的。但如果你想要更多细节，我鼓励你打电话给 Karen 或 Rich，如果你联系不上他们中的一个，就给我打个电话。
还没有形成必要的企业文化，私下沟通很没必要。
Elyse Greenspan 伊莉絲·格林斯潘
Okay, thank you. 好的，谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Truist 的 Mark Hughes。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Mark, good afternoon.
嗨，马克，下午好。
Mark Hughes 马克·休斯
Hello, Rob, good afternoon to you. Hello, Rich. How - what are you seeing in terms of loss development on some of those older accident years, particularly in the casualty lines, any change in trajectory this year compared to prior years?
你好，罗布，下午好。你好，里奇。在一些较早事故年度方面，特别是在意外险方面，你看到了什么损失发展情况，今年与之前的年份相比，轨迹有什么变化吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I would suggest that some of the older years are beginning to show signs of petering out and I think some of the more recent years that look particularly encouraging. As they season out more, we will be more inclined to recognize the good news. But I think at this stage, if you look at the average duration of our loss reserves or an average life of our loss reserve, which is 3.5 plus years, just shy of four years at this stage, we have our arms around, I think, a lot of the years that we're particularly frustrating where I think the industry may have gotten caught a little flat-footed, and ourselves are not completely insulated from that with social inflation.
我建议，一些较早年份开始显示出逐渐减弱的迹象，而一些较近的年份看起来特别令人鼓舞。随着它们进一步成熟，我们将更倾向于认识到好消息。但我认为在这个阶段，如果你看看我们损失准备金的平均期限或我们损失准备金的平均寿命，现在是3.5年多一点，接近4年，在这个阶段，我们掌握了，我认为，很多我们特别沮丧的年份，我认为整个行业可能有点措手不及，我们自己也并没有完全免受社会通胀的影响。
I think we may have gotten on top of it a little quicker than some. But nevertheless, '16 through '19 is not without its challenges. That having been said, I think some of the more recent years are encouraging, but I think '16 through '19 are slowing considerably and certainly the earlier of that Group, I think have - maybe not fully played out but are pretty darn close.
我认为我们可能比一些人更快地掌握了这个问题。但尽管如此，从'16 年到'19 年并不是没有挑战。话虽如此，我认为最近几年的一些情况是令人鼓舞的，但我认为'16 年到'19 年的增长速度明显放缓，而且在这个群体中较早的部分，我认为已经 - 或许还没有完全实现，但已经非常接近。
Mark Hughes 马克·休斯
Yes, very good. How about on workers comp, you had some growth in premiums written this quarter. How are you thinking about that?
是的，非常好。关于工人赔偿，您在本季度的保费收入有所增长。您对此有什么想法？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes, that was primarily due to payroll, if you will. Just wage or - wage inflation, if you like.
是的，这主要是由于工资支出，如果你愿意的话。只是工资或者 - 如果你喜欢的话，工资通货膨胀。
Mark Hughes 马克·休斯
Yes. Anything, any update on....
是的。任何事情，有任何更新吗....
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
We still have reservations about the product line. We're pleased that we participate in the market. We think our colleagues that are in this space have exceptional expertise and are managing the capital well. But by and large if there is a little bit more of a certainly neutral to defensive posture at this stage, I think as we've talked about in the past, we think that the medical trend is going to prove to be challenging.
我们对产品线仍然持保留意见。我们很高兴能参与市场。我们认为在这个领域的同事具有卓越的专业知识，并且善于管理资本。但总的来说，如果在这个阶段有更多的确定性中立到防御性的立场，我认为正如我们过去所讨论的，我们认为医疗趋势将会变得具有挑战性。
As far as obviously the U.S. comp market is both broad and deep. And from what I hear from my colleagues that are far more knowledgeable than I, I would keep an eye on California for leading the charge as far as market bottoming out.
就显然而言，美国的竞争市场既广泛又深厚。根据我从比我更有经验的同事那里听到的，我会密切关注加利福尼亚州在市场触底方面的领先地位。
Mark Hughes 马克·休斯
Appreciate it. Thank you.
感谢。谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for the question. Good evening.
谢谢提问。晚上好。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Zaremski of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 BMO Capital Markets 的 Mike Zaremski。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Mike. Good evening. 嗨，迈克。晚上好。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Hi, good evening. I guess just if we wanted to reflect on the past 12 to 18 months, you've discussed it a bit, but there was kind of a pivot downwards in growth for a bit. Did the - was the pivot more the marketplace changed in terms of competition, or was it more so reflection of what you've been talking about? Hi, loss costs are - we need to do a bit of a true-up and you've gotten that picture of the Python and kind of now the - it's kind of a smoother sailing from here. Just kind of curious how much was kind of more, you think, Berkeley-specific versus just market forces and the competitors doing their thing.
嗨，晚上好。我猜如果我们想要反思过去的 12 到 18 个月，你已经谈到了一些，但在一段时间内增长有点下滑。这个转变更多是市场竞争的变化，还是更多地反映了你一直在谈论的内容？嗨，损失成本是 - 我们需要做一些真实的调整，你已经得到了那张 Python 的图片，现在 - 从这里开始，航行会更加顺利。只是好奇有多少是Berkeley特定的，而不仅仅是市场力量和竞争对手在做他们的事情。
RobBerkley 罗布伯克利
So the way I characterize it, Mike, is I think that the market is changing every day. And if you go back, call it two years ago, professional liability, D&O, as an example, was in a different place than it is today. So you have that force. On the other hand, clearly, two years ago property was in a different place than it is today. So you have all these pieces that at any moment in time some things are firming, some things are softening, and obviously, that instructs how we feel and how strong or not our appetite is.
Mike，我对市场的看法是，市场每天都在变化。如果你回顾一下，大约两年前，以D&O为代表的专业责任保险与今天的情况不同。所以你有这种力量。另一方面，显然，两年前的财产保险与今天的情况也不同。所以你有所有这些因素，在任何给定的时刻，有些东西在变硬，有些东西在变软，显然，这指导了我们的感受以及我们的胃口有多强烈或不强烈。
In addition to that, I think, as we may have flagged in some earlier calls, there were a couple of what I would describe as meaty relationships scale-wise, that we came to a shared understanding that we agreed to disagree as to what an appropriate rate need is and what action was required. And as a result of that, we wished each other well, or at least we wished them well, and that played a role in it as - in addition to the earlier comments.
除了这些，我认为，正如我们可能在一些早期的电话会议中提到的，有几次我会描述为规模较大的关系，我们达成了一种共识，即我们同意在适当的费率需求和所需采取的行动上有不同的看法。因此，我们彼此祝愿好运，或者至少我们祝愿他们好运，这除了早期的评论之外，也起到了一定的作用。
每个人都说自己比别人弄的灵清，看上去都缺少可以实证的依据（除BRK/PGR以外），Chubb也有这种感觉。
So do I think that the 12% is this like phenomenal number? That's one-off. The answer is no. I think that there were some things in the first half of the year that served as somewhat of an extreme drag, and what you're seeing now is a lot of that shift away has been processed.
我认为 12%是一个了不起的数字吗？那只是一次性的。答案是否定的。我认为上半年有一些事情在某种程度上起到了极端的拖累作用，现在你看到的很多转变已经得到了处理。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Okay, that's helpful context. Clearly, the ROE for the year ended up being excellent. So I guess just switching gears a little bit, I think you mentioned the reinsurers. Anything we should be thinking about maybe within your expense ratio guidance or just as the year progresses, in terms of if the reinsurers are able to successfully garner higher pricing, seating commissions or whatnot, on what - they charge their counterparties, such as Berkeley for casualty reinsurance. I know you guys have a reinsurance arm, obviously too, so there's an offset. But just curious if there's something -
好的，这有助于理解背景。显然，ROE（股本回报率）在年末表现得非常出色。所以我想稍微换个话题，我记得你提到了再保险公司。在我们考虑费用比率指导或者随着一年的发展，是否应该思考再保险公司是否能够成功地获得更高的定价，座位佣金或其他什么，在他们向对手方，比如Berkeley收取的伤亡再保险费用上。我知道你们显然也有再保险业务，所以有一定的抵消效应。只是好奇是否有一些——
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes, obviously, we take it from one pocket and hopefully, we're getting it back and then some in the other pocket. I think one of the things that - so do I think it's possible that you're going to see some of the reinsurance marketplace trying to take action, for example, with seeding commissions? Yes, I do. The good news for our organization, as we've discussed, because of our limits profile and how the business is operated with approximately 90% of our policies that are legally allowed to have limits, having a limit of $2 million or less, that makes us less reinsurance dependent.
当然，我们从一个口袋里拿钱，希望还能从另一个口袋里拿回来，甚至更多。我认为，再保险市场是否有可能采取一些行动，比如通过种子佣金？是的，我认为有可能。对我们组织来说的好消息是，正如我们所讨论的，由于我们的限额概况以及业务的运作方式，大约90%的保单在法律允许的限额内，限额为200万美元或更少，这使我们对再保险的依赖性较小。
意思是小聪明比较多，为客户承保的责任较少。
So consequently, we have the ability to pivot and think about what we buy, perhaps differently than some of our peers, and we also can shift structurally. So as Rich mentioned earlier, around the seed, part of the reason why the - excuse me, around the expense ratio partly has to do with seed, where people wanted to cut seeding commissions. So maybe we switched to an XoL structure that made sense to us, given the rate environment, and that worked out.
因此，我们有能力转变思维方式，考虑我们购买的东西，或许与我们的一些同行不同，并且我们也可以进行结构性转变。正如 Rich 之前提到的，关于种子部分，部分原因是费用比率，部分原因是人们想要削减种子佣金。也许我们转向了对我们有意义的 XoL 结构，考虑到利率环境，这样做是明智的，并且取得了成功。
So the punchline is this, Mike, a hardening reinsurance market when it comes to the casualty lines, net net will be very good for us as an organization because it will force further discipline and consequently pricing power for the primary market. And in addition to that, my colleagues on the reinsurance side, I'm sure will be right in there seizing the opportunity.
因此，迈克，当涉及到伤亡险时，市场变得更加严格，对我们作为一个组织来说将是非常有利的，因为这将迫使进一步的纪律，从而为主要市场带来定价权。除此之外，我在再保险方面的同事们，我相信一定会抓住机会。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Okay, that's helpful. And maybe if I can sneak one last one in, if Bill thinks it's a question worthy of his wisdom. Presidential election year, to the extent the outcome is for a change of the guard, is there anything market-wise, investment portfolio-wise, or just interest rate-wise you guys are thinking of in terms of hard or dry or pivot? If that is an outcome late this year.
好的，这是有帮助的。如果我还想问最后一个问题，如果Bill认为这个问题值得他的智慧。总统选举年，如果结果是政权更迭，从市场角度、投资组合角度或仅仅是利率角度来看，你们是否考虑了任何硬性或干燥或转变的策略？如果这是今年晚些时候的结果。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Before he answers that, I think we may need to read the Safe Harbor again.
在他回答之前，我认为我们可能需要再次阅读《安全港》。
BillBerkley 比尔伯克利
So, I think the bottom line is, we've got a $2 trillion deficit. 92% of the world's countries have deficits. There is going to be an enormous demand for money. Number two, we are the only significant democratic country that doesn't have any kind of national sales tax. We have some flexibility.
所以，我认为关键是，我们有 2 万亿美元的赤字。世界上 92%的国家都有赤字。将会有巨大的资金需求。其次，我们是唯一一个没有任何形式的全国性销售税的重要民主国家。我们有一些灵活性。
However, you have to look at every time there's been a need to come to a conclusion, Democrat or Republican, the conclusion has been both parties spend more money. So what that tells you is spending money and not having taxes go up are a cornerstone of the policies both parties have chosen to follow.
然而，每次需要得出结论时，无论是民主党还是共和党，结论都是两党都花了更多的钱。这告诉你的是，花钱而不增加税收是两党选择遵循的政策基石。
At some point, we're going to have to decide someone is going to have to pay for all we're doing. And whether that's a value-added tax or increasing income taxes or whatever, we are going to have to do something, and it's going to happen during the next presidential period, or Social Security and Medicare, Medicaid are going to be in jeopardy.
在某个时候，我们将不得不决定某人将不得不为我们所做的一切付出代价。无论是增值税、增加所得税或其他方式，我们都将不得不采取一些行动，这将在下一个总统任期内发生，否则社会保障、医疗保险和医疗补助将面临危险。
这个观点跟巴菲特是一样的，任何事走过头了总是要还的。
So I don't think it matters who's elected. That's a problem that we're going to face. It won't happen till after the election. Whomever is elected won't matter. And I think that's going to mean is we're going to have some pressure on inflation, pressure on government spending, and I don't think that means good things for interest rates coming down. I would expect interest rates at best will be flat.
所以我认为谁当选并不重要。这是我们将要面对的问题。这不会发生在选举之后。无论谁当选都不重要。我认为这意味着我们将面临通货膨胀压力、政府支出压力，我不认为这对降低利率是好事。我预计利率最多会保持不变。
I think people are biased by the fact that we had an extended period with extraordinarily low interest rates. I don't think interest rates are going to go crazy, but I don't think we're going to see them consequentially lower than they are now and probably a little higher.
我认为人们受到我们长期拥有极低利率的事实的影响。我不认为利率会疯狂上涨，但我也不认为我们会看到它们比现在更低，可能会略高一些。
Mike Zaremski 迈克·扎雷姆斯基
Appreciate it. 感激。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thank you, Mike. 谢谢，迈克。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of David Motemaden of Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, David. Good evening. 嗨，大卫。晚上好。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Hi, Rob. Good evening. So I just had a question on the rates that you guys are seeing now in liability lines. If we exclude comp and exclude financial lines, I'm wondering if you started to see evidence of those rates accelerate in the quarter - in the fourth quarter. I'm just trying to get a sense for if we were to adjust for the mixed dynamics that you had just mentioned in your opening remarks if we are actually starting to see those rates move higher in response to the environment.
嗨，罗布。晚上好。我有一个关于你们现在在责任险方面看到的费率的问题。如果我们排除工伤险和金融险，我想知道你们是否开始看到这些费率在本季度加速上涨 - 在第四季度。我只是想了解一下，如果我们要调整你在开场白中提到的混合动态，我们是否实际上开始看到这些费率在应对环境时上升。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
So generally speaking, we don't break the rate data out by product line, but I guess to give you a little bit of color, I would tell you that we are very happy with the rate increases that we are achieving in much of the liability market, to say the least. We are comfortable that, putting aside some challenges within the professional liability space, the rest of it, we think that we are keeping up with trend and then some, or clearing trend by a meaningful margin.
一般来说，我们不会按产品线拆分费率数据，但我想给你一点信息，我可以告诉你，我们对我们在很多责任市场上取得的费率提高非常满意，至少可以这么说。我们很满意，除了专业责任领域存在一些挑战之外，其他方面，我们认为我们与趋势保持一致，甚至超过趋势，或者说超过趋势一个有意义的幅度。
So, are things better in Q4 than they were in Q3? I don't really have the specific numbers in front of me at the moment, but just from having my finger somewhat on the pulse, I am very comfortable that the underwriting environment for the lines that you're referring to is every bit as healthy in Q4 as it was earlier in the year, possibly better. And there's nothing that leads me to believe that that momentum is going to diminish. And quite frankly, it's just simply being driven by loss costs and the environment, which, appropriately, I think, is making people focus on it more and more. So we feel like we're in a good place.
那么，第四季度的情况比第三季度好吗？我此刻并没有具体的数字在手边，但仅仅从我对市场的了解来看，我非常确信你所指的业务领域的承保环境在第四季度和年初时一样健康，甚至可能更好。没有任何迹象表明这种势头会减弱。坦率地说，这主要是由损失成本和环境所驱动，这使得人们更加关注。因此，我们觉得我们处于一个良好的位置。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Okay, great. Thanks. That's encouraging. And then maybe if I could just move to the accident year loss ratio ex-cat. So if I look at the improvement year-over-year, I was wondering, and I know this is getting a little bit granular, but I think the prior period had some fire losses in there. Was the improvement really just the absence of those fire losses? And are we sort of at a clean baseline here going forward?
好的，太好了。谢谢。这是令人鼓舞的。然后也许我可以转移到事故年损失率减去灾难。所以如果我看一下年度改善，我想知道，我知道这有点细致，但我认为之前的时期中有一些火灾损失。改善真的只是没有这些火灾损失吗？我们未来会在一个干净的基准线上吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Rich, do you want to speak to that?
Rich，你想和那个人说话吗？
RichBaio
Sure, Rob. I would say yes. It is certainly part of the reason for the change. Quarter-over-quarters, we certainly, over the last few quarters, as Rob has alluded to, I think on some of the earlier calls, been making some changes with regards to re-underwriting some of the property risk side of things. And so, yes, there has been an improvement. Certainly, much progress has been made. Can't say that it's completely completed, but certainly do I anticipate a better position going forward.
当然，Rob。我会说是的。这确实是变化的一部分原因。逐季度来看，在过去几个季度，正如Rob所暗示的，在一些早期的电话会议中，我们已经在对一些财产风险方面的再保险进行一些调整。所以，是的，有所改善。当然，已经取得了很多进展。不能说这已经完全完成，但肯定我预期未来会处于一个更好的位置。
David Motemaden 大卫·莫特马登
Understood. Thank you. 明白了。谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thank you, David. 谢谢，大卫。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 的 Ryan Tunis。您可以提问了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Ryan, good evening. 嗨，瑞安，晚上好。
Ryan Tunis
All right. Just a couple from me on - from an insurance growth standpoint. First one just on professional lines. I guess I was kind of hoping that as we started lapping some of those comps from when this first started a year ago, maybe we'd see a little bit better growth. But it looked like growth was down again even after being down last year in the fourth quarter. Is that not the right way to think about it? Is this a line that based on where market conditions are…
好的。关于保险增长的问题，我只有几句。首先是关于专业线的。我想我有点希望，随着我们开始超越一年前开始时的一些竞争对手，也许我们会看到一些更好的增长。但看起来增长再次下降，即使在去年第四季度已经下降过。这样想对吗？这是基于市场条件的一条线吗…
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Are you speaking specifically about professional? Sorry, Ryan. Trying to make sure....
您是在特指专业吗？抱歉，Ryan。努力确保....
Ryan Tunis
Professional lines, yes, I'm just trying to understand like....
专业领域，是的，我只是在努力理解像....
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes. The skinny on that, at least through, in my opinion, is the D&O market, particularly public D&O market has been, from a pricing perspective, in somewhat of free fall, and rates went up considerably, and now they're coming back down. And then we have a view as to what rate adequacy is. And ultimately, while we're sorry to see it go, if it goes, it goes. We're not going to chase it down the drain.
至于D&O市场，至少在我看来，特别是公共D&O市场，从定价的角度来看，已经有些自由落体了，费率大幅上升，现在又回落下来了。然后我们对费率的充分性有一个看法。最终，虽然我们很遗憾看到它离去，但如果它离去了，就让它离去吧。我们不会追着它走向下水道。
In addition to D&O, a couple of other product lines that I would call out would be medical professional, specifically hospital professional liability, where the lack of discipline in that product line over the past, quite frankly, a couple of years, I think, has given reason to pause. To our colleagues credit, they also - they have been operating with the discipline. So that's quite frankly having an impact on the top line as well.
除了 D&O 之外，我想要提到的另外几个产品线是医疗专业责任，特别是医院专业责任，过去几年来，这个产品线的缺乏纪律，坦率地说，我认为已经给人们理由停下来思考。值得赞扬的是，我们的同事们也在遵守纪律。坦率地说，这也对收入产生了影响。
Other areas that I would flag, maybe one other would be architects and engineers with some of the larger accounts where again, we have found that the market is willing to do things we don't think make sense, and the pricing has come off. So professional liability, extraordinarily broad category, just trying to give you a little bit of a flavor with some of the bigger pieces of that puzzle. But yes, there are some areas within the professional space that we still find notably attractive, particularly nonstandard.
当然，我会指出其他一些领域，也许还有一个是建筑师和工程师，其中一些较大的账户，我们再次发现市场愿意做一些我们认为没有意义的事情，而且定价已经下降。所以专业责任是一个非常广泛的类别，我只是试图给你一些关于这个难题中一些较大部分的风味。但是，是的，在专业领域内，我们仍然发现一些领域特别有吸引力，特别是非标准的。
And then there are some big chunks of the professional line, some of which I just referenced, that I think should be giving anyone who's responsible and disciplined real reason to pause.
然后还有一些专业领域的重要部分，其中一些我刚刚提到的，我认为应该让任何负责任和有纪律的人真正停下来思考的理由。
Ryan Tunis
Got it. And then I guess just to follow up on the short tail lines.
明白了。然后我猜只是跟进短尾线。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Please. 请。
Ryan Tunis
Growth for the full year was like around 20%. Just trying to understand how much is the composition - how much - from a composition standpoint, did that change this past year? Was it more than normal because of the rate environment, or was most of that growth exposure and rate action on stuff you'd already been writing in 2022?
全年增长大约在20%左右。只是想了解一下，从构成的角度来看，过去一年是否有所变化？是否因为费率环境而比平常更多，还是说大部分增长是由于2022年你们已经在写的业务的暴露和费率行动？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
So it's a combination of both. As you'd expect, we're pushing pretty hard on the rate front and it's sticking.
所以这是两者的结合。正如你所期望的那样，我们在费率方面施加了相当大的压力，而且它是有效的。
In addition to that, as we see rate adequacy more and more attractive, then we're going to lean into that. And you would take note the growth, for example, in short tail lines or specifically property in the reinsurance business during the '23 year. And of course, we had meaningful growth on the property front and the E&S space as well, both through our domestic businesses as well as through our London operation.
除此之外，随着我们看到费率充足变得越来越有吸引力，我们将会加大投入。您会注意到，例如，在'23 年的再保险业务中，短尾线或特定财产的增长。当然，我们在财产前线和 E&S 领域也取得了有意义的增长，这既通过我们的国内业务，也通过我们的伦敦业务。
Ryan Tunis
Got it, So, I guess, how is like, your outlook for the type of cat exposure you have? Has that changed at all?
明白了，那么，我猜，你对你所接触到的自然灾害风险的类型的看法如何？这方面有变化吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Not meaningfully, when the day is all done. I mean, as I said a few moments ago, the majority of our growth is driven by rate. So there's a lot of things where our exposure hasn't changed, but we're charging considerably more. But also, that has led to opportunity to write some additional business as well. But I don't have a specific breakout on the 20% what's rate versus exposure. But if you'd like, you're welcome to follow up with us tomorrow and we can give you some more context.
当一天结束时，变化并不显著。我的意思是，就像我刚才说的，我们的增长主要是由费率驱动的。所以有很多情况我们的暴露没有变化，但我们收取的费用要多得多。而且，这也带来了写一些额外业务的机会。但我没有具体的20%的细分，哪些是费率，哪些是暴露。但如果你愿意，你可以在明天跟进我们，我们可以给你更多的背景。
一波通胀给保险公司创造了机会。
Ryan Tunis
Appreciate it. 感激。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for the question. 谢谢提问。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请发问。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Meyer. Good afternoon. Good evening, rather.
嗨，迈耶。下午好。晚上好，更确切地说。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
Hi Rob, how are you?
嗨，罗布，你好吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Good, how are you? 好的，你好吗？
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
I'm doing well, thanks. Sorry, I don't mean to talk over you. Follow up Ryan's question. We've seen growth in commercial auto accelerate over the last two quarters, and I was wondering, is something changing in rates there, or is that a change in exposure?
我过得很好，谢谢。抱歉，我不是要打断你。跟进莱恩的问题。在过去的两个季度里，我们看到商业汽车的增长加速，我想知道，那里的费率是否有所变化，还是曝光有所变化？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I think primarily what's driving it is we're just charging a lot more. We're insisting on a lot more rates. That's the big driver, no pun intended.
我认为主要推动力是我们只是收费更多。我们坚持更高的费率。这是主要推动力，不是开玩笑的。
这样的企业如何对抗PGR？这个市场早晚都是PGR的。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
No, taken. No, that's helpful. Second, I know that you've talked about sort of waiting for, let's say, accident years 2020 and subsequent to mature a little bit. I hope we can get a little bit of a peek in terms of what you're seeing even before you take any reserve actions on those years.
不，拿走。不，那很有帮助。其次，我知道你已经谈到了等待，比如说，等待 2020 年及以后的事故年份成熟一点。我希望在你对这些年份采取任何准备行动之前，我们能稍微看一下你看到的情况。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Well, I would suggest you look at the paid loss ratios. I'd also sit because that's a reality. In addition to that, I would encourage you to have a look at how much IBNR we are carrying relative to case for some of those years. And further, I would encourage you to look at how much IBNR we're carrying relative to our total reserves.
嗯，我建议您查看已付赔付比率。我也会坐下来，因为这是现实。除此之外，我鼓励您看看我们相对于某些年份的案例所携带的 IBNR 数量。此外，我鼓励您查看我们相对于总准备金所携带的 IBNR 数量。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
Okay. 好的。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
For those years. 那些年。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
Helpful, And.... 有帮助的。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
And I think that directionally should give you something to hang your hat on.
我认为，这个方向应该给你一个依靠的东西。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
Perfect. And if I can throw in one other question really quickly.
完美。如果我可以再快速提出另一个问题。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Sure. 当然。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
When you look back at the experience you had as you sort of expanded modestly into property cat in 2023, does that leave you wanting more or less exposure in 2024?
回顾你在2023年适度扩展到财产保险中的自然灾害风险的经历，这是否让你在2024年想要更多或更少的暴露？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
The answer is that I think that 2024, at least so far, based on what we saw at 1/1, is likely to continue to provide a very good opportunity. Is it going to be quite as attractive as 23? Perhaps not, but I think that even if it isn't, that doesn't mean it's no longer an attractive opportunity. So we, as far as property cat goes in a very measured way, continue to be bullish on the opportunity. But as I said earlier, we are doing a bit more, but if the growth is really driven by the rate, I don't think you are going - you would not see a dramatic shift in our risk profile.
答案是，我认为 2024 年，至少目前为止，根据我们在 1/1 看到的情况，很可能会继续提供非常好的机会。它会像 23 年那样吸引人吗？也许不会，但我认为即使不那么吸引人，也不意味着它不再是一个有吸引力的机会。因此，就房地产而言，我们以非常谨慎的方式继续看好这个机会。但正如我之前所说，我们正在做更多，但如果增长真的是由利率推动的，我认为你不会看到我们的风险配置发生剧烈变化。
Meyer Shields 梅耶·希尔德
Okay, understood. Thank you so much.
好的，明白了。非常感谢。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自瑞银的 Brian Meredith。请发问。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
Hi, good evening, Rob. 嗨，晚上好，罗布。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Good evening. 晚上好。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
A couple things here. First one just on that, just some clarity here. So obviously, big growth in property reinsurance. What did you all do at 1/1? I'm assuming we won't see the same type of growth in 2024 that we saw in 2023 in that area. I know you were pretty opportunistic in '23.
这里有几件事。首先，就这一点，这里需要澄清一下。显然，再保领域增长迅猛。你们在 1/1 做了什么？我假设我们在 2024 年不会看到与 2023 年相同类型的增长。我知道你们在'23 年非常机会主义。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I'm sorry. As far as our property writings?
对不起。就我们的财产文件而言？
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
Property re. Property re. Reinsurance.
财产再保险。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Reinsurance starting. Brian, I think that - I think, I'm happy to share that with you, but I want to check with our General Counsel to make sure that I'm allowed to share that with you. But what I know I can share with you is that our general view on the property cat market at 1/1 was that it was still very attractive, maybe not quite as attractive as it was at 1/1/23, or said differently, I think the market is still very attractive, but I also believe it has peaked, at least for the moment.
再保险开始。Brian，我认为——我很高兴与你分享这一点，但我需要先咨询我们的总法律顾问，以确保我可以与你分享这些信息。但我可以告诉你的是，我们对1月1日的财产保险市场的总体看法是，它仍然非常有吸引力，可能不像2023年1月1日时那么有吸引力，或者换句话说，我认为市场仍然非常有吸引力，但我也觉得它已经达到了顶峰，至少目前是这样。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
Okay, interesting. And then I guess my next question. Rob, and we talked a little bit about this earlier. The ceded reinsurance program and your flexibility there. I'm just curious, is this kind of the time in the market that maybe you do want it to retain more of that business just because rates are quite adequate, your operating leverage is still relatively low compared to history? Why wouldn't you kind of just lean in here and retain more of it?
好的，有趣。然后我猜我的下一个问题。罗布，我们之前谈到过这个问题。转让再保险计划和您在那里的灵活性。我只是好奇，这种市场时机也许是您希望保留更多业务的时候，因为费率相当充足，您的运营杠杆相对于历史仍然较低？为什么您不倾向于在这里保留更多呢？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
And - there are parts of the business that we are grappling with exactly those questions. Ultimately, the reinsurance marketplace, from our perspective, is that there are some people that are our partners through thick and thin, and there are some people where it's much more of a transactional relationship.
而且 - 我们正在努力应对正是这些问题的业务部分。从我们的角度来看，再保险市场是这样的，有些人是我们的伙伴，无论是好是坏，有些人则更多地是一种交易关系。
Those that are our partners through thick and thin, we are not likely going to cut them off, if you will. Those that are more transactional in nature, we come to the table recognizing we are renting their capital, and we have a choice whether we're going to use our own or whether we're going to rent theirs. And my colleagues are pretty good at doing the math and we try and figure out what makes sense. So are there parts of the business where if the reinsurance marketplace were to push us, we might exercise that option of keeping more for exactly the reasons that you're flagging?
那些与我们同甘共苦的合作伙伴，我们不太可能切断与他们的联系。那些性质上更交易性的合作伙伴，我们在谈判时意识到我们是在使用他们的资本，并且我们可以选择是使用我们自己的资本还是租用他们的。我的同事们非常擅长做数学计算，我们尝试弄清楚什么才是有意义的。那么，如果再保险市场推动我们，我们是否会在业务的某些部分行使保留更多的选择权，正是出于你所指出的原因？
BRK已经成为保险公司的保险公司，一个不怎么会浪费资本的领域。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
Got you. Thanks. And then can I ask one big picture question? I'm just curious. If I look at the industry and the commercial lines and the combined ratios and margins that companies have been reporting, and you've been pretty consistent the last couple of years, but they're about as good as they've ever been, right? I mean, at least in 2025 years.
明白了。谢谢。然后我可以问一个大问题吗？我只是好奇。如果我看行业和商业线以及公司一直在报告的综合比率和利润率，你们过去几年一直很稳定，但它们大概是有史以来最好的，对吧？我是说，至少在过去的 20-25 年里。
So I guess my question then is with the client pushback there, with the broker pushback, when you're kind of trying to push for incremental rate, and I get it, that loss cost inflation is improving a little bit here, but the returns the industry is generating right now are incredibly attractive.
所以我猜我的问题是，当客户反对，经纪人反对时，当你试图推动增量费率时，我明白，损失成本通货膨胀在这里有所改善，但目前行业正在产生的回报非常有吸引力。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I'm not close enough to it, but I think we're using a pretty broad brush. I think that if you look back at some of the personal lines players or even some of the commercial line folks that write property books, it hasn't been necessarily a wonderful five years for them. Maybe it's better today.
我不太了解具体情况，但我认为我们使用的是一种相当宽泛的方法。如果你回顾一下一些个人业务领域的参与者，甚至是一些从事财产保险业务的商业线人士，他们过去五年的情况并不一定很好。也许今天的情况有所改善。
But when the day is all done, I think one needs to use a bit of a finer brush and really look at it at product line by product line. I think, as I suggested earlier, I think Q4 is going to be a really attractive quarter for many market participants. But I don't think 2023 proved to be this remarkable experience for all carriers.
但是当一天结束时，我认为人们需要使用一把更精细的刷子，真正逐个产品线地审视它。我认为，正如我之前所提到的，我认为第四季度对许多市场参与者来说将是一个非常有吸引力的季度。但我不认为 2023 年对所有运营商来说都是一个非凡的经历。
So again, do I think that the industry is in a better place today, certainly for many product lines, than it's been at other moments in time? Yes, I agree with that comment. But I think if you look at the total results for a lot of insurance companies for the '23 year, not everyone is hanging their hat on a return that starts with a two.
所以，我是否认为今天的行业对于许多产品线来说比其他时刻更好？是的，我同意这种看法。但我认为，如果你看看许多保险公司在 23 年的总体业绩，不是每个人都指望回报率以 2 开头。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩·梅雷迪思
Makes sense. Thank you. 有道理。谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for the question, Brian. Have a good night.
谢谢你的问题，布莱恩。晚安。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Josh. Good evening. 嗨，乔什。晚上好。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
Hi. Good evening, everybody. Thanks for taking my call at the end. There's probably a Rich question here. I'm looking at the traditional investment income and stepped up materially $249 million in the third quarter, and you're about $280 - having $288 million, I think, change for this quarter. That's a pretty large step up and the implied yield stepped up a lot. Is there any one-time type of coupons or one-time dividends in that number, or is that a good approximation of where the yield on the book was through the fourth quarter?
大家好，晚上好。感谢大家在最后接我的电话。这里可能有一个Rich的问题。我正在看传统的投资收益，在第三季度大幅增加了2.49亿美元，你们这个季度大约有2.8亿到2.88亿美元的变动。这是一个相当大的增长，隐含的收益率也大幅上升。这个数字里有没有一次性的票息或一次性的股息，或者这是第四季度投资组合收益率的一个良好近似值？
RichBaio
So we have seen a - an increase, Josh, in the overall book yield, I'd say from a fixed maturity perspective, we certainly have been able to deploy capital and reinvest at higher rates, as Rob was alluding to earlier in some of his remarks in terms of the - where the new money rate is and where the roll-off is. So certainly that's been a big contributor to it.
我们确实看到了整体投资组合收益率的增长，乔什，从固定到期的角度来看，我们肯定能够以更高的利率部署资本并重新投资，正如罗布在前面一些评论中所暗示的，就新资金的利率和滚动到期的利率而言。所以这绝对是一个重要的贡献。
We did have a little bit of an uptick, if you will, with regards to some securities that we own in Argentina that are inflation-adjusted as well. So that did create a little bit of an uptick. But I would tell you that the book yield in the quarter, I would say, core would be around 4.7%, which is certainly up from where we were at the end of the third quarter.
我们确实有一些上升，如果你愿意的话，关于我们在阿根廷拥有的一些证券，它们也是根据通货膨胀调整的。所以这确实造成了一些上升。但我得告诉你，这个季度的投资组合收益率，我会说，核心大约是4.7%，这当然比我们在第三季度末的时候要高。
这是非常危险的游戏。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
Thank you. And you spoke, Rob, about the new money yield being in excess of 5% right now.
谢谢。罗布，你说过，现在新的资金收益率超过 5%。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes. 是的。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
And given all the chatter and whatnot about rates and everything, a lot may have even happened since the new year began. Is there any desire or action going on at the company? Duration is still 2.4 years. Is there intention to crystallize some of the yield at these higher yields available in the market right now?
鉴于关于利率等的所有讨论，自新年伊始可能已经发生了很多变化。公司是否有任何愿望或行动？期限仍然是2.4年。是否有意图在当前市场上可用的更高收益率中实现一些收益？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
So, Josh, our goal is, if the opportunity presents itself, to move that duration out a bit from here, if that is your question, I want to make sure I'm understanding it.
所以，乔什，我们的目标是，如果有机会的话，将这段时间延长一点，如果这是你的问题，我想确保我理解正确。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
Yes, I mean, or -
是的，我的意思是，或者 -
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
We're going to move it out -
我们要把它搬出去 -
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
Yes, same way. Different way of putting it,
是的，同样的方式。不同的表达方式。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes. So our desire is to move it out, but we're going to move it out when we see the window of opportunity. So would we like to see that move out to '25, '26, '27 over time? Yes, we would. But we're going to do that in a way that makes sense.
是的。所以我们的愿望是将其移出，但我们会在看到机会窗口时将其移出。所以我们是否希望随着时间的推移将其移出到'25 年，'26 年，'27 年？是的，我们希望。但我们会以合理的方式来做。
So I would encourage you to stay tuned. And we're - there's a lot of volatility in the world, and when we see the things working with us, we're going to try and lean into that window, but we're just trying to roll with the punches. And again, it's remarkable volatility.
所以我鼓励你继续关注。我们 - 世界上有很多波动，当我们看到事情对我们有利时，我们会尝试利用这个机会，但我们只是试图应对变化。再次强调，这是非常大的波动。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
And one last investment-oriented question. Given the macro outlook for things at this point in time, does it make sense to lean in and perhaps contribute more of the portfolio to the investment fund type of investments?
最后一个投资导向的问题。鉴于目前的宏观前景，是否有意义倾向于并可能将更多投资组合投入到投资基金类型的投资中？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Actually, I think at this stage, quite to the contrary, we're very pleased with what this traditional fixed income portfolio is offering us. And I think, just as a general mix, while we - I don't see us exiting alternatives, I don't think that there's the same level of encouragement or it's not as compelling to look in the alternative directions as it once was given where fixed income rates still are.
实际上，在这个阶段，恰恰相反，我们对这个传统固定收益投资组合提供给我们的东西感到非常满意。我认为，就一般组合而言，虽然我们——我不认为我们会退出替代投资，我认为现在看替代方向的鼓励程度或吸引力并不像以前那样，考虑到固定收益利率仍然处于的水平。
这个提问是一种诱导，回答的还不错。
Josh Shanker 乔什·尚克
Thank you for all the answers. Good luck to the new year.
感谢您提供的所有答案。祝新年好运。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thank you, sir. You too.
谢谢，先生。你也。
Operator 操作员
Your next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
您的下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Good evening. 晚上好。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦·基纳
Thanks for taking my questions. Just first question, just looking at the property market, so sounds like maybe a seat, but still pretty attractive returns there. I think you guys have gone through some remediation efforts on the property book as well. I guess with that in mind as we look at '24, if your costs correctly, you're still thinking of growing that book more through rate than through exposures, is that correct? Why not lean more into exposure?
感谢您接受我的问题。第一个问题，只是看看财产市场，听起来可能有一个座位，但那里的回报仍然相当有吸引力。我认为你们也已经对财产账簿进行了一些补救措施。我想，考虑到这一点，当我们看到2024年时，如果你们的成本正确，你们仍然考虑通过费率而不是通过敞口来增加这个业务的规模，对吗？为什么不更多地依赖敞口呢？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I want to draw a distinction. First off, as far as things peaking, that comment was suggested that they may be peaking in the property cat market. And I'd like to draw a distinction between the primary or insurance market versus the reinsurance market. And in addition to that, I would suggest that it's important to draw a distinction between the property cat market versus the property risk reinsurance market because they are clearly not one in the same in our opinion.
我想做一个区分。首先，就事物达到顶峰而言，那个评论暗示了财产保险市场可能正在达到顶峰。我想区分一下初级市场或保险市场与再保险市场。此外，我认为重要的是要区分财产保险市场与财产风险再保险市场，因为它们在我们看来显然不是一回事。
As far as our desire to grow the business, look, if we like the margin, we are going to lean into it. And I think that at the moment, generally speaking, we like the opportunity that continues to exist in the reinsurance marketplace when it comes to property. And we are certainly paying attention to a lot of the opportunity that exists in the primary property insurance space, particularly as it relates to E&S in the commercial lines.
就我们希望发展业务而言，看，如果我们喜欢利润率，我们会倾向于投入其中。我认为目前来说，总的来说，我们喜欢再保险市场上持续存在的机会，特别是在物业方面。当涉及商业线的 E&S 时，我们当然会关注主要物业保险领域存在的许多机会。
And of course, not to be forgotten, our colleagues at Berkeley, one on the high net worth front, the opportunity for rate, both on the admitted basis as well as, just as a reminder, they are using non-admitted paper as well, is creating meaningful opportunity also.
当然，别忘了我们在Berkeley的同事，一个在高净值领域的机会，无论是在承认基础上还是，只是作为一个提醒，他们也在使用非承保文件，也创造了有意义的机会。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦·基纳
That's helpful. Thank you. And then my second question, and I'm not sure if you'd be willing to answer this at this stage, but...
这很有帮助。谢谢。然后我的第二个问题，我不确定您是否愿意在这个阶段回答这个问题，但是...
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
When in doubt, ask. 有疑问时，请问。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦·基纳
I'll try. The - when we see the 10-K and maybe even the scheduled P later on in the year and we look at the results from this quarter, would we see a similar trend to what we've seen so far year to date? Namely, maybe some strengthening in liability reserves of older vintages offset by favorable releases in 2020 through '22?
当我们查看10-K报告，也许甚至是今年晚些时候的预定P（可能指某个具体的财务报告），我们看到本季度的结果时，我们会看到与今年迄今为止我们看到的类似趋势吗？也就是说，一些较旧年份的责任准备金的加强被2020年到2022年的有利释放所抵消？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
I think directionally, yes, you will see that. Do I think that we are very far or well on our way to having '15 through '19 behind us? Yes, I do. Do I think that it's done? Probably not.
我认为在方向上，是的，你会看到这一点。我认为我们离 2015 年至 2019 年已经很远或者已经走得很顺利了吗？是的，我认为是的。我认为这件事已经完成了吗？可能不是。
Look, we take a different approach than some other organizations when it comes to monitoring our reserves and trying to make sure that we're getting it right. There are some folks that just ignore it for quarter-after-quarter, year-after-year, and then all of a sudden they have this giant problem that they need to deal with and they take this massive charge.
看，当涉及监控我们的储备并努力确保我们做得正确时，我们采取了与其他一些组织不同的方法。有些人只是一季度又一季度地忽视它，年复一年，然后突然间他们面临着一个巨大的问题需要处理，他们就会承担巨额费用。
We take a different approach. Our view is we're looking at it every 90 days or more frequently and we're tweaking it to where we think it needs to be, and we think that that's the more sensible approach. So again, you'll see the information, but I think that we continue to be very optimistic about the more recent years and how that's going to play out.
我们采取了不同的方法。我们的观点是，我们每 90 天或更频繁地审视一次，并对我们认为需要调整的地方进行微调，我们认为这是更明智的方法。因此，您将看到这些信息，但我认为我们对最近几年的发展仍然非常乐观，以及这将如何发展。
PGR已经做到系统化，很多行业数字化以后很可能赢家通吃。
Do I - clearly, some of that good news has been used along the way as we've had some challenges coming out of the older years. I think, again, those challenges are in the rear view mirror and shrinking by the minute. And I think there continues to be a lot of encouraging signs, as I referenced earlier, around the amount of IBNR we continue to carry in some of the more recent years.
我认为 - 显然，一些好消息已经在我们走过的路上被利用，因为我们在过去的几年里遇到了一些挑战。我认为，再次，这些挑战已经成为过去，而且正在逐渐减少。我认为，正如我之前提到的那样，我们继续看到很多令人鼓舞的迹象，关于我们在一些最近的年份继续承担的 IBNR 数量。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦·基纳
Thank you. 谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for the questions. Have a good evening.
谢谢提问。晚安。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦·基纳
You too as well. 你也一样。
Operator 操作员
We do have two more questions.
我们还有两个问题。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Okay. 好的。
Operator 操作员
Would you like to continue?
你想继续吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Yes, why don't we go ahead and get to those two, if we could, please, Sarah? Thank you so much.
是的，如果可能的话，我们为什么不继续前进并处理那两个问题呢？谢谢你，Sarah。非常感谢。
Operator 操作员
Perfect. Thank you. So your next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
完美。谢谢。所以你的下一个问题来自高盛的 Alex Scott。你可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Alex, good evening. 亚历克斯，晚上好。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Hi. Thanks for taking - hi, thanks, and good evening to you. I just have one quick one for you.
嗨。谢谢你的 - 嗨，谢谢，祝你晚安。我只有一个快速的问题要问你。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Please. 请。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
You guys have been very good real estate investors over time. So I thought I'd sort of ask a similar question to what Mike asked you before. So just - what kind of opportunities are in real estate? Obviously, fixed income is a lot more attractive right now at higher yields. But are you seeing any stabilizing trends in the real estate market?
你们一直是很好的房地产投资者。所以我想提出一个类似Mike之前问你的问题。那么——房地产市场有哪些机会？显然，固定收益在当前更高的收益率下更具吸引力。但是你们是否看到了房地产市场的稳定趋势？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
As far as real estate goes, clearly, there's been a lot of opportunity. Residential has been reasonably stable and has been a good place to be. Particularly commercial on the office front has been more challenging. Fortunately for us, we own some very high quality assets and feel like we're in a very good place there, both with the quality of the assets as well as the occupancy, et cetera, et cetera.
就房地产而言，显然，存在很多机会。住宅市场相对稳定，一直是一个不错的投资领域。尤其是商业办公楼方面更具挑战性。幸运的是，我们拥有一些非常高质量的资产，感觉我们在那里处于一个非常好的位置，无论是资产的质量还是出租率等等。
Are there going to be opportunities? We're paying close attention, but when you look at where the fixed income market is, the hurdle, if you will, for alternatives, including direct or indirect real estate is that much higher. So are we paying attention? If there was a great opportunity, are we prepared to step forward? Yes, but that hurdle is considerably higher when you look at what we can do with new money on the fixed income portfolio, which gives us good yield, good liquidity, and this risk-adjusted, we like it.
会有机遇吗？我们正密切关注，但当你看看固定收益市场的位置时，对于那些包括直接或间接房地产在内的替代投资的门槛，要高得多。那我们是否在关注？如果有一个很好的机会，我们准备好向前迈出一步了吗？是的，但当你看看我们在固定收益投资组合上可以用新资金做什么时，这个门槛就高得多了，它给我们带来了良好的收益、良好的流动性，并且经过风险调整后，我们喜欢它。
Alex Scott 亚历克斯·斯科特
Understood. Thank you. 明白了。谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for the question. Have a good night.
谢谢提问。晚安。
Operator 操作员
And your final question comes from the line of Scott Heleniak with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
您的最后一个问题来自 RBC 资本市场的 Scott Heleniak。您可以发言了。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Hi, Scott. Good evening. 嗨，斯科特。晚上好。
Scott Heleniak 斯科特·赫莱尼亚克
Hi, thanks. Yes. Just had two quick questions here. Just E&S, you talked about to be an attractive market here. The submission count sounds like it's pretty encouraging still. Can you just - can you comment more on the submission count for the - for Q4 versus the past few quarter, how that's trended and where you're kind of seeing the most opportunity there, if there's any particular lines or areas where it's changed much?
嗨，谢谢。是的。这里只有两个快速问题。关于 E＆S，您谈到这里是一个有吸引力的市场。提交数量听起来仍然相当令人鼓舞。您能否就第四季度与过去几个季度的提交数量进行比较，说明这一趋势如何发展，以及您在哪里看到最多的机会，如果有的话，是否有任何特定领域或线路发生了很大变化？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
So the answer is that it remains as give or take, as robust as ever, and we remain very encouraged. As far as where the most encouraging opportunities are, that's not something that we're going to be broadcasting. I would tell you that products liability has been an area that the standard market seems to continue to have an unquenchable thirst for.
因此，答案是它仍然保持着大致不变，一如既往地强大，我们仍然感到非常鼓舞。至于最令人鼓舞的机会在哪里，这不是我们要公开宣布的事情。我可以告诉你，产品责任已经成为标准市场似乎继续对其有着无法满足的渴望的领域。
Scott Heleniak 斯科特·赫莱尼亚克
Okay, I appreciate that. And then just the last one is, you mentioned some startups that you had during the year. How many of those did you have in particular, and are you able to talk about what the premium is on those? Just - if you don't have it now, I can get it later. I don't know if you give that out, but is there anything more you can comment on that?
好的，我感激。然后最后一个问题是，你提到了你在这一年中创办的一些初创公司。你特别创办了多少家，你能谈谈这些公司的溢价是多少吗？如果你现在没有，我可以之后再拿到。我不知道你是否会透露这些信息，但你还能再多谈谈吗？
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Scott, what I recommend, if it's accessible to you, is that you follow up with Karen and Rich, and they'll have a better sense as to what we can share and what we can't. I don't want to get all of us in trouble with the SEC..
Scott，我建议，如果你可以接触到他们，你应该跟进 Karen 和 Rich，他们会更清楚我们可以分享什么，不能分享什么。我不想让我们所有人都惹上 SEC 的麻烦。
Scott Heleniak 斯科特·赫莱尼亚克
Sure. 当然。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Or anyone else in that matter.
或者任何其他人。
Scott Heleniak 斯科特·赫莱尼亚克
All right, fair enough. Thanks.
好的，公平。谢谢。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Thanks for dialing in. Have a good evening.
谢谢您的来电。祝您晚上愉快。
Scott Heleniak 斯科特·赫莱尼亚克
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
I will turn the call over to Mr. Rob Berkeley for closing remarks.
我将把电话交给罗布·伯克利先生做结束语。
Rob Berkley 罗布·伯克利
Okay, Sarah, thank you very much. And thank you to all of the participants. We appreciate your time. I think the quarter speaks for itself. The year speaks for itself. The organization continues to perform at a high level, and as suggested earlier, perhaps the most exciting news is how well-positioned we are for not just '24, but likely '25 and beyond.
好的，莎拉，非常感谢你。感谢所有参与者。我们感谢你们的时间。我认为季度的表现不言而喻。整个年度的表现也不言而喻。组织继续保持高水平运作，正如之前所提到的，也许最令人兴奋的消息是我们不仅在'24 年，而且很可能在'25 年及以后都处于一个良好的位置。
We thank you again for your time, and we look forward to speaking with you in April. Have a good evening.
我们再次感谢您的时间，期待四月与您交谈。晚安。
Operator 操作员
This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.
今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话。
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