2024-02-27 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q4 2023 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q4 2023 Earnings Conference Call February 27, 2024 9:30 AM ET
Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) 2023 年第四季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2024 年 2 月 27 日上午 9:30
Company Participants
公司参与者
Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
Lori Niederst - Customer Relationship President
Kathryn Lemieux - Business Leader, CRM Sales Experience
Sean Freeman - Business Leader, Direct Progressive Agency Experience Team
Tricia Griffith - President & Chief Executive Officer
Pat Callahan - Personal Lines President
John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer
Douglas Constantine - 投资者关系总监 Lori Niederst - 客户关系总裁 Kathryn Lemieux - CRM 销售体验业务主管 Sean Freeman - 直销进步代理体验团队业务主管 Tricia Griffith - 总裁兼首席执行官 Pat Callahan - 个人业务总裁 John Sauerland - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Michael Zaremski - BMO
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Joshua Shanker - Bank of America
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
David Motemaden - Evercore ISI
Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research
Michael Ward - Citi
Meyer Shields - KBW
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Michael Zaremski - BMO Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley Joshua Shanker - Bank of America Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan Robert Cox - Goldman Sachs Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo David Motemaden - Evercore ISI Ryan Tunis - Autonomous Research Michael Ward - Citi Meyer Shields - KBW Yaron Kinar - Jefferies Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's Fourth Quarter Investor Event. I am Doug Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event. The company will not make detailed statements related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.
早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第四季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监 Doug Constantine，将主持今天的活动。除了已在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年度报告和致股东信中提供的信息外，公司将不做其他与业绩相关的详细说明。
This quarter includes a presentation on a specific portion of our business, followed by a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments and the presentation were previously recorded. Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we used the balance of the 90 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with the leaders featured in our recorded remarks as well as other members of our management team.
本季度的活动包括介绍我们的特定业务，随后是与我们领导团队成员的问答环节。开场白和演讲之前已经录制。之前录制的发言结束后，我们利用 90 分钟的剩余时间与录制发言中的领导以及管理团队的其他成员进行了现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.
一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
有关这些风险和不确定性的更多信息，请参阅我们截至 2023 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表年报，您可以在其中找到有关影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论、与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明以及有关我们所面临挑战的其他讨论。这些文件可通过我们网站 investors.progressive.com 上的 "投资者关系 "部分查阅。
To begin today, I am pleased to introduce our Customer Relationship President, Lori Niederst, who will kick us off with some introductory comments. Lori?
首先，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的客户关系总裁 Lori Niederst。洛丽？
Lori Niederst
洛里-尼德斯特
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. As Doug said, my name is Lori Niederst and I'm excited to be the first to participate in our new format. Traditionally, Tricia provides the opening comments for these presentations. But going forward, members of our leadership team will have the opportunity to speak to topics in our area of responsibility and introduce the talented individuals executing on these initiatives that we highlight during the event. In previous presentations, we've discussed our strategic pillars, which serve as the foundation of our vision.
早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。正如道格所说，我叫洛莉-尼德斯特，很高兴能第一个参加我们的新形式。传统上，特里西娅（Tricia）会为这些演讲致开场白。但今后，我们领导团队的成员将有机会就我们职责范围内的主题发言，并介绍我们在活动中强调的执行这些计划的人才。在之前的演讲中，我们讨论了作为我们愿景基础的战略支柱。
Today, we're focusing on one of those pillars, serving the broad needs of our customers. This pillar is synonymous with our strategy to become a destination company, providing products that meet our customers' changing needs throughout their lifetime. We seek to instill customer confidence in both the products and the prices that we offer. To set the stage for today's presentation, I thought it would be helpful to recap the history of Progressive's evolution as a destination company.
今天，我们将重点放在其中一个支柱上，即满足客户的广泛需求。这一支柱是我们成为目的地公司战略的同义词，我们提供的产品能够满足客户一生中不断变化的需求。我们力求让客户对我们提供的产品和价格充满信心。为了给今天的演讲做好铺垫，我认为回顾一下 Progressive 发展成为目的地公司的历史会有所帮助。
become a destination company，有一本同名的书，通过吸引和激励员工来构建一个理想的公司，其中一个说法是先建立员工系统，再建立生产系统，对比乔布斯的说法：优秀的人想跟同样优秀的一起工作。
Back in 2008, we publicly introduced our now ubiquitous customer segments, Sams, Dianes, Wrights, and Robinsons. In 2014, we first spoke of our destination strategy, stating our intention to invest in the products, services and experiences to better serve customers from all four segments.
早在 2008 年，我们就公开介绍了现在无处不在的客户群，即 Sams、Dianes、Wrights 和 Robinsons。2014 年，我们首次谈到我们的目的地战略，表示我们打算投资于产品、服务和体验，以更好地服务所有四个细分市场的客户。
这样的客户分类估计不多见。
Since then, we've had relentless focus on not only maintaining and growing the Sams, Dianes, and Wrights who have always been well served by Progressive, but significantly increasing our market share with Robinsons, which we estimate represent just under half of the personal insurance direct written premium in the United States. We've been very successful growing Robinsons, who in December of 2023, accounted for just under 13% of our direct written premium. Countless efforts have contributed to Robinsons being our fastest-growing segment, but it was two strategic decisions that really drove our success.
从那时起，我们就一直坚持不懈地关注，不仅要保持和发展一直以来得到 Progressive 良好服务的 Sams、Dianes 和 Wrights，还要显著提高我们在 Robinsons 的市场份额，我们估计 Robinsons 占美国个人保险直接承保保费的一半以下。我们非常成功地发展了 Robinsons，到 2023 年 12 月，他们占我们直接承保保费的比例略低于 13%。Robinsons 成为我们增长最快的部门，有无数的努力，但真正推动我们成功的是两个战略决策。
Even before the introduction of the destination strategy, in 2006, we began offering homeowners insurance from other carriers in our Progressive Advantage Agency, or PAA. What began as a small endeavor has evolved into HomeQuote Explorer, or HQX, where we now offer customers competitive homeowner rates from a lineup of reputable carriers.
早在 2006 年引入目的地战略之前，我们就开始在我们的 Progressive Advantage Agency（简称 PAA）中提供其他承保人的房屋保险。从最初的小规模尝试发展到现在的 HomeQuote Explorer（简称 HQX），我们现在可以为客户提供一系列声誉良好的承保商的有竞争力的房屋保险费率。
This success in direct and our desire to grow Robinsons in the independent agent channel, led Progressive to purchase a stake and eventually fully acquire American Strategic Insurance. ASI, now branded Progressive Home, has enabled us to offer both underwritten home and auto bundles as well as partner bundles to significantly increase our appeal to the rights in Robinsons. We've since leveraged our learnings and success in bundling personal insurance products in the commercial market, where we continue to be an industry leader.
直销的成功以及我们在独立代理渠道发展Robinsons的愿望，促使 Progressive 收购了部分股份，并最终完全收购了 American Strategic Insurance。ASI 现在的品牌是 Progressive Home，它使我们能够提供承保的家庭和汽车捆绑产品以及合作伙伴捆绑产品，从而大大提高了我们对 Robinsons 权利的吸引力。此后，我们利用在商业市场捆绑个人保险产品的经验和成功经验，继续保持行业领先地位。
捆绑销售做的是心理学的生意，不产生实质的价值。
In 2018, we first introduced BusinessQuote Explorer, or BQX, which enabled direct customers to purchase a variety of commercial insurance products from other carriers, and bundle with our Commercial Auto and BOP coverages. More recently, we're exploring this winning strategy in Personal Auto with AutoQuote Explorer, or AQX, which enables customers to compare rates and purchase products from other personal auto carriers on progressive.com. This gives us another avenue to serve more customers and cross-sell from our expanding portfolio of products. Customer bundling doesn't end with Home and Personal Auto, our Commercial Auto and BOP. We have a whole suite of offerings, which includes Progressive underwritten Special Lines, Renters and Umbrella products.
2018年，我们首先推出了BusinessQuote Explorer，即BQX，使直接客户能够从其他承保商购买各种商业保险产品，并与我们的商业汽车和BOP保险捆绑。最近，我们又在个人汽车领域探索这一制胜战略，推出了 AutoQuote Explorer（简称 AQX），使客户能够在 progressive.com 上比较费率并购买其他个人汽车承保商的产品。这为我们提供了另一条服务更多客户和交叉销售不断扩大的产品组合的途径。客户捆绑服务不仅限于家庭和个人汽车保险、我们的商业汽车保险和 BOP。我们拥有一整套产品，其中包括由 Progressive 承保的特殊险种、租客险和雨伞险产品。
By expanding our portfolio of products, we have continued to increase our addressable market and capture new business. The result of these efforts has been pretty incredible. We now estimate that 19% of households in the United States have at least one Progressive sold product, an increase of over 80% in the last 10 years. The benefits of these efforts on our business are far reaching.
通过扩大我们的产品组合，我们不断扩大我们的可覆盖市场并获得新业务。这些努力的结果令人难以置信。我们现在估计，美国有 19% 的家庭至少拥有一款 Progressive 销售的产品，在过去 10 年中增长了 80% 以上。这些努力给我们的业务带来了深远的影响。
The top line growth from increased sales of progressive underwritten products and commissions earned from sales of partner products is just the beginning. The more products the customer purchases from Progressive, the stickier the customer becomes leading to higher lifetime profits and lower per policy acquisition costs, fueling the virtuous cycle that results in greater market share.
progressive承保产品销售额和合作伙伴产品销售佣金的增长只是一个开始。客户从 Progressive 购买的产品越多，客户粘性就越强，从而带来更高的终身利润和更低的单份保单获取成本，促进良性循环，从而扩大市场份额。
结果倒推的逻辑，而不是因为产品好，服务好。
But it's not just Progressive the benefits. We're making insurance easier for customers by providing options to meet their insurance and other financial needs now and in the future. Additionally, our industry-leading brand and acquisition engine provides growth opportunities for our partners. Making this destination strategy, a win, win, win.
但这不仅仅是Progressive的利益。我们为客户提供各种选择，满足他们现在和未来的保险和其他金融需求，让保险变得更简单。此外，我们行业领先的品牌和收购引擎为我们的合作伙伴提供了增长机会。使这一目的地战略成为一个双赢、多赢、共赢的战略。
线上超市，也有自营的店铺，跟淘宝、京东的模式很接近，保险也是一种商品。
It's important to note that today, we're talking about the direct channel. Like many efforts Progressive has undertaken, we often leverage the direct channel to test, learn, and perfect new ideas. While doing so, we're always looking for ways to deploy our successes in direct to benefit our independent agents. For decades, the agency channel has been vital to Progressive's growth and independent agents will continue to be the face of Progressive for millions of customers.
值得注意的是，我们今天讨论的是直接渠道。与 Progressive 所做的许多努力一样，我们经常利用直销渠道来测试、学习和完善新的想法。在这样做的同时，我们一直在寻找各种方法来部署我们在直销方面取得的成功，使我们的独立代理商受益。几十年来，代理渠道对 Progressive 的发展至关重要，独立代理将继续成为数百万客户认识 Progressive 的窗口。
字节大规模用的AB测试，传统企业能掌握技术能力的是极少数，PGR算一个，IBKR也算一个，这类企业从一开始就有技术的底子。
While we're focusing on Direct today, we fully recognize that Robinsons are the largest segment of consumers served by independent agents in the United States, and we have a number of significant investments underway to continue our leadership in this channel and our partnership with our 40,000-plus independent agents.
虽然我们今天的重点是直销，但我们充分认识到，Robinsons 是美国独立代理商所服务的最大的消费者群体，我们正在进行一系列重大投资，以继续保持我们在这一渠道的领先地位以及我们与 40,000 多家独立代理商的合作关系。
For a deeper dive into our evolution as a destination company, I'd like to introduce Kathryn Lemieux, a 42-year Progressive veteran and our Business Leader for CRM Sales Experience. Kathy will share more detail on how we're leveraging our HQX, BQX and AQX platforms to provide choice and build customer confidence.
为了深入探讨我们作为目的地公司的发展历程，我想向大家介绍凯瑟琳-莱米厄，她是一位在 Progressive 工作了 42 年的资深员工，也是我们 CRM 销售体验业务的负责人。Kathy 将详细介绍我们如何利用 HQX、BQX 和 AQX 平台提供选择并建立客户信心。
Our second speaker is Sean Freeman. Sean is a Business Leader of our Comparison Rating Experience and Direct Property Quoting, who's been with Progressive for 14 years. He'll demonstrate the benefits of bundling and multi-product households and explain how these efforts will continue to drive Progressive's growth and profitability.
第二位发言人是肖恩-弗里曼（Sean Freeman）。Sean 是我们比较评级经验和直接财产报价的业务主管，已在 Progressive 任职 14 年。他将展示捆绑和多产品家庭的优势，并解释这些努力将如何继续推动 Progressive 的增长和盈利能力。
Again, thank you for joining us today, and I'll now hand it over to Kathy.
再次感谢各位参加今天的会议，下面请凯西发言。
Kathryn Lemieux
凯瑟琳-勒米厄
Hello. I appreciate the opportunity to deliver some highlights on our progress toward achieving our destination company vision. Today, we'll focus on how the Progressive Advantage Agency is becoming a primary source for insurance products for consumers who prefer the direct channel. We strive to provide access to a broad portfolio of products, so customers begin and then keep their relationship with us without the need to look elsewhere.
大家好。我很高兴有机会向大家重点介绍我们在实现公司目标愿景方面取得的进展。今天，我们将重点介绍 Progressive Advantage Agency 如何成为偏好直接渠道的消费者购买保险产品的主要来源。我们努力为客户提供广泛的产品组合，使客户与我们建立并保持良好的合作关系，而无需到其他地方寻找。
Let me begin by introducing the journey of Sam and Ashley, two actual Progressive customers. Back in 2009, when Sam first contacted Progressive, he was seeking insurance for his 1999 Saturn. Eventually, he bought a motorcycle, which needed insurance as well. Later, he married Ashley, and together, they acquired Renters Insurance until eventually, they bought a home, which required homeowners insurance. Both our Renters and Homeowners insurance policies were purchased through the Progressive Advantage Agency.
首先，请允许我介绍一下 Sam 和 Ashley 这两位实际的 Progressive 客户的心路历程。2009 年，当 Sam 第一次联系 Progressive 时，他正在为自己 1999 年的土星汽车寻找保险。后来，他买了一辆摩托车，也需要购买保险。后来，他与 Ashley 结婚，并一起购买了租客保险，直到最后，他们买了房子，需要购买房屋保险。我们的租户保险和房主保险都是通过 Progressive Advantage 代理公司购买的。
In the case of Sam and Ashley, we were able to offer them different products as live events triggered the need for additional and more complex insurance coverage. We would have loved to sell a Progressive manufactured property product to the couple, but that wasn't the right solution for them. So we had other options ready. Let's talk more about that approach. Our multi-carrier marketplace for property and small business insurance products allows us to meet the needs of more and more customers. We are leveraging the Progressive brand building on our industry-leading digital tools and working with a growing number of reputable carriers to make buying and maintaining insurance easier. This recipe is proving very successful delivering 200% growth in premiums written through our agency in less than a decade.
在 Sam 和 Ashley 的案例中，我们能够为他们提供不同的产品，因为现场事件引发了对额外和更复杂保险的需求。我们本想向这对夫妇销售 Progressive 的人造财产保险产品，但这并不适合他们。因此，我们准备了其他选择。让我们来详细谈谈这种方法。我们的多承保人财产和小型企业保险产品市场使我们能够满足越来越多客户的需求。我们正在利用 Progressive 品牌，在行业领先的数字工具基础上，与越来越多的知名承保人合作，使购买和维护保险变得更加容易。事实证明，这一秘诀非常成功，在不到十年的时间里，通过我们的代理公司承保的保费增长了 200%。
CRM是最基础的设施，能用好的不多，用不好的缺陷只会越来越严重。
Over the years, we've evolved the comparison shopping experience from Property to Commercial Lines from one carrier to many from the phone to the online channel and from Quote to also buy without agent intervention. While the large majority of our insurance customers start their shopping experience online, using our HomeQuote Explorer or BusinessQuote Explorer digital experiences, which launched after our shop by phone-only models, the majority work with our team of knowledgeable in-house agents to customize their policy before purchasing.
多年来，我们不断改进比较购物体验，从财产险到商业险，从一家承保商到多家承保商，从电话到在线渠道，从报价到无需代理人干预的购买。虽然我们的大多数保险客户都是通过使用我们的 HomeQuote Explorer 或 BusinessQuote Explorer 数字体验开始在线购物体验的，这些数字体验是在我们的纯电话购物模式之后推出的，但大多数客户在购买前都会与我们知识渊博的内部代理团队合作，定制他们的保单。
看着个性化定制是基本的需求，如果是这种情况，那么企业内部的软件能力是非常关键的。
As you've come to expect from Progressive, we continue to invest in improving the quote and buy experience, always focusing on the needs of our customers. We introduced a Digital Multi-carrier Quote experience, which we call HomeQuote Explorer in 2017. Over the course of the next several years, we made enhancements and introduce new features to improve the quoter experience and the platform's efficiency. These efforts have generated close to a 10% increase in quote completions over early HQX results.
正如您对 Progressive 所期待的那样，我们将继续投资改善报价和购买体验，始终关注客户需求。我们在 2017 年推出了数字多承保人报价体验，我们称之为 HomeQuote Explorer。在接下来的几年中，我们不断改进并推出新功能，以改善报价者的体验和平台的效率。与 HQX 早期的成果相比，这些努力使报价完成率提高了近 10%。
One of our most recent changes was the introduction of a QuickQuote Experience, which displays prefilled data from third-party providers upfront so that customers can easily review and edit. Leveraging our proprietary models, we customize prompts and details to assist customers in selecting coverages and qualifying for discounts. This change alone decreased quote time by 20%, reducing the effort for customers and increasing their likelihood to purchase as a result. This is just one example of our work to simplify what has traditionally been a complicated shopping experience for both homeowners and small business owners. Our dedication to continuous improvement is bolstered by a rigorous A/B testing approach aimed at making a fully digital quote and purchase available to more shoppers. However, our in-house agents are always here to provide guidance and instill customer confidence.
我们最近的一项变革是推出了 "快速报价体验"（QuickQuote Experience），该体验可预先显示第三方供应商提供的预填数据，方便客户查看和编辑。利用我们的专有模型，我们定制了提示和详细信息，以帮助客户选择承保范围和折扣资格。仅这一项改变就将报价时间缩短了 20%，减少了客户的工作量，提高了他们购买的可能性。这只是我们简化业主和小企业主传统上复杂的购物体验的一个例子。我们采用严格的 A/B 测试方法，旨在为更多的购物者提供完全数字化的报价和购买方式，这进一步增强了我们不断改进的决心。不过，我们的内部代理始终在这里提供指导，为客户注入信心。
软件公司的成分很大，甚至已经超过保险的成分。
The investments in our HQX and BQX platforms only produce value when they're backed by a broad portfolio of products underwritten by reputable brands. Both the breadth of carriers in our network and the depth of their product suite have grown over the last decade. Presently, 13 carriers comprise our HomeQuote Explorer portfolio and nine for BusinessQuote Explorer. There are major benefits to having a large contingent of carriers in the PAA, which Sean will get into later, but there is also a risk because we are exposing progressive customers and thus the Progressive brand to the services of another carrier. To protect our customers and the Progressive brand, we are selective about the carriers we partner with. They must meet our standards for customer care. They must offer a quality product at a fair price, pass our information security assessments and they must have the financial strength and standing to uphold the promise we make to customers that will be there when they need us most.
我们在 HQX 和 BQX 平台上的投资只有在信誉良好的品牌承保的广泛产品组合的支持下才能产生价值。在过去十年中，我们网络中承保人的广度和产品组合的深度都在不断增长。目前，我们的HomeQuote Explorer产品组合中有13家承保商，BusinessQuote Explorer中有9家承保商。在 PAA 中拥有大量的承保商有很大的好处，Sean 将在后面详细介绍，但同时也存在风险，因为我们将 Progressive 的客户以及 Progressive 品牌暴露在另一家承保商的服务之下。为了保护我们的客户和 Progressive 品牌，我们对合作的承运商进行了严格筛选。他们必须符合我们的客户关怀标准。他们必须以合理的价格提供优质的产品，通过我们的信息安全评估，而且他们必须有足够的财力和信誉来履行我们对客户的承诺，在客户最需要我们的时候提供服务。
等同于天猫品牌店，巴菲特认为保险公司的本质是赔付能力，赔付能力跟净资产有关，保留净资产的前提资产配置的能力，敢不敢把净资产拿去买入其他公司的股票，这是一道心理上的界线，能做的是极少数，并且有的就有，没有的终身没有，PGR走了另一条路，而巴菲特还是认为搬到线上的保险公司，不管是什么保险公司，最终卖的是承保能力，约等于净资产。
Additionally, we'll consider a carrier's technological capabilities so that we can provide a seamless integrated digital customer experience for quoting and servicing. Also worthy of note is that our carrier networks include a number of companies that provide both property and small business insurance offers in HQX and BQX. We take pride in this fact as it demonstrates the strength of our mutually beneficial relationships. The benefits of our multi-carrier model extend far beyond quote and buy and are evident throughout the customer insurance journey for significant life changes, such as Sam and Ashley getting married and buying a house, perhaps experiencing a future job relocation or if they eventually need to ensure their teenage driver. Our agencies ready with the products they need and the customer service to help them navigate these events.
此外，我们还会考虑承保商的技术能力，以便在报价和服务方面提供无缝集成的数字客户体验。另外值得注意的是，我们的承保商网络包括许多在 HQX 和 BQX 提供财产保险和小型商业保险的公司。我们对此深感自豪，因为这证明了我们互惠互利关系的实力。我们的多承保人模式的优势远不止于报价和购买，而是体现在客户的整个保险旅程中，如 Sam 和 Ashley 结婚买房、未来工作调动或最终需要确保他们的青少年驾驶员等重大生活变化。我们的代理机构随时准备提供他们所需的产品和客户服务，帮助他们应对这些事件。
Recall that Sam and Ashley added a home policy underwritten by one of our network carriers several years after acquiring their Progressive Auto Insurance and built a bundle, becoming one of the more than 1 million Robinsons we ensure through the PAA. The portfolio of products and carriers who underwrite them that are available to our customers allows us to grow more bundles over time. But even when the event isn't life changing, for example, a policy renewal accompanied by a steep rate increase, we are presented with an opportunity to support our customers by offering options, which gives us the chance to retain the customer.
回想一下，Sam 和 Ashley 在购买 Progressive 汽车保险数年后，又增加了一份由我们的网络承保商承保的家庭保单，并建立了一个捆绑保险，成为我们通过 PAA 确保的 100 多万 Robinson 中的一员。我们为客户提供的产品组合和承保公司使我们能够随着时间的推移增加更多的捆绑产品。但是，即使事件并没有改变我们的生活，例如续保时伴随着费率的大幅上涨，我们也有机会通过提供选择来支持我们的客户，这使我们有机会留住客户。
Often, we are able to anticipate customer shopping by leveraging our proprietary data models and proactively reach out to offer assistance. Even subtle nudges such as the e-mail presented here, reinforce the value our in-house agency offers. That leaves our longest running product comparison experience, Auto Insurance. More than 30 years ago, we introduced auto comparison rating as a fee-based service in California. Insurance products were much simpler in those days, so at the time, rates were manually calculated by a team of Progressive people who reverse engineered them from public filings. This industry altering idea proved to be a winner with customers, prompting us to make the service available countrywide and to build our brand on comparison rates.
通常情况下，我们能够利用我们的专有数据模型预测客户的购物行为，并主动伸出援助之手。即使是微妙的暗示，如这里展示的电子邮件，也能强化我们内部机构提供的价值。剩下的就是我们历史最悠久的产品比较体验--汽车保险。30 多年前，我们在加利福尼亚州推出了收费的汽车比较评级服务。当时的保险产品要简单得多，因此当时的费率是由一个由 Progressive 员工组成的团队根据公共文件反向计算出来的。事实证明，这一改变行业的想法赢得了客户的青睐，促使我们在全国范围内提供这项服务，并在费率比较上建立了自己的品牌。
这些企业更容易在AI的发展中得到进化，客户的购物行为肯定是可以预测的，前提是有没有相应的技术基础。
Our early marketing messages combine the ease and savings from one-stop rate comparison with a message of transparency. If our rate isn't the lowest, we'll tell you who's is? And challenging the status quo now what you'd expect from an insurance company as early brand differentiators. As Progressive and competitors advance their products, adding credit, underwriting and tiering, our precision in providing comparison rates declined. Consumers saw decreasing value in the range of rates we provided to adjust to these conditions. The next evolution of comparison rates came in 2016 when we began purchasing discrete auto rates from a third party. This model has proven to be a lower-cost way to provide a service that is to this day, valuable to our customers.
我们的早期营销信息将一站式费率比较带来的便利和节省与透明信息相结合。如果我们的费率不是最低的，我们会告诉你谁的费率是最低的？挑战现状是您对保险公司的早期品牌差异化的期望。随着 Progressive 和竞争对手不断改进产品，增加信用、核保和分层，我们在提供比较费率方面的精确度下降了。消费者发现，我们为适应这些情况而提供的费率范围的价值越来越小。比较费率的下一次演变发生在 2016 年，当时我们开始从第三方购买离散汽车费率。事实证明，这种模式是提供服务的低成本方式，至今对我们的客户仍有价值。
Over the past five years, we've conducted dozens of tests leveraging comparison rates to improve customer experiences, increase Progressive's conversion and monetize click referrals. Our decades of experience led us to take the next step in the auto rate comparison journey AutoQuote Explorer. Bringing our CRE, HQX and consumer insights together, we've been piloting a multi-carrier auto quoting experience since the third quarter of 2022. We launched a Quote and Buy experience over the phone first and have refined the delivery with our in-house agents through several iterations.
在过去的五年中，我们进行了数十项测试，利用比较费率改善客户体验，提高 Progressive 的转换率，并将点击推荐货币化。数十年的经验促使我们在汽车费率比较之旅中迈出了下一步：AutoQuote Explorer。结合我们的 CRE、HQX 和消费者洞察力，我们从 2022 年第三季度开始试行多承保人汽车报价体验。我们首先通过电话推出了 "报价和购买 "体验，并通过多次迭代改进了内部代理的交付方式。
We're ready to introduce the AQX Experience online soon. The screens that you see on this page were developed using focus group and agent feedback when testing with prototypes. Early results give us confidence that the comparison quote and purchase experience with a reputable set of carriers will give us the opportunity to better meet consumer needs, starting new customer relationships in those cases where insurance shoppers would not purchase a progressive policy, getting their auto insurance needs met elsewhere.
我们即将在线介绍 AQX 体验。您在本页面上看到的屏幕是在原型测试时根据焦点小组和代理的反馈开发的。早期测试结果让我们相信，通过与信誉良好的保险公司进行比较报价和购买体验，我们将有机会更好地满足消费者的需求，在保险消费者不会购买渐进式保单的情况下建立新的客户关系，在其他地方满足他们的汽车保险需求。
Progressive continues to be known for providing comparison rates, but our launch of AQX provides an opportunity to refine our brand positioning. The key is to generate interest by conveying that we've taken the hassle out of shopping for car insurance, while giving customers confidence in the products, prices, and providers that we offer. But just like HQX and BQX, the customer value of AQX extends beyond the purchase and we continue to refine the benefit statements, taking advantage of our market research.
Progressive 继续以提供费率比较而闻名，但我们推出的 AQX 为完善我们的品牌定位提供了机会。关键在于通过传达我们已经解决了购买汽车保险的麻烦，同时让客户对我们提供的产品、价格和供应商充满信心，从而引起客户的兴趣。但与 HQX 和 BQX 一样，AQX 的客户价值并不局限于购买，我们将继续利用我们的市场调研来完善利益声明。
关于定价的问题苹果也被反复问到，乔布斯和库克的解释是公平合理，苹果不跟别人比较，单纯的从创造价值的角度去理解这个问题，落脚点是付出努力打造的好产品。
Thank you again for the opportunity to speak today. I'll now hand it over to Sean. Sean?
再次感谢您给我今天发言的机会。现在请肖恩发言。肖恩？
Sean Freeman
肖恩-弗里曼
Thank you, Kathy. Following that overview of the operations of the Progressive Advantage Agency and the many unique shopping experiences we have deployed as part of it. I will now be walking you through the robust benefits of this Destination Era strategy. As Lori referenced earlier, any discussion about the benefits of the Progressive Advantage Agency should be viewed through the lens of a win-win-win strategy. As we look to implement programs where all participants stand to benefit. As with everything we do at Progressive, our customers really come first. The PAA was created to ensure we had a full suite of insurance products within our direct channel that can meet consumer needs throughout their lifetime.
谢谢你，凯西。在概述了 Progressive Advantage Agency 的运营情况以及我们在其中部署的许多独特的购物体验之后。现在，我将向大家介绍这一 "目的地时代 "战略的强大优势。正如 Lori 之前提到的，任何有关 Progressive Advantage Agency 好处的讨论都应从三赢战略的角度来看待。因为我们希望实施的计划能让所有参与者受益。正如我们在 Progressive 所做的一切一样，我们的客户才是真正的第一位。PAA的创立是为了确保我们在直销渠道中拥有一整套保险产品，能够满足消费者一生的需求。
But beyond just offering a broad collection of types of insurance, we look to ensure that our customers are confident in their purchases through education and choice. Being able to provide quotes for other insurance companies in addition to our own underwritten policies ensures that customers feel empowered in their decision and are confident with their price and coverage. Additionally, our customers benefit from the ease of the shopping experiences, with our best-in-class quoting capabilities, saving them time and frustration. When thinking about the benefits enjoyed by our participating network of carriers the list really starts with the access they gain to millions of qualified customers that were generated through Progressive's marketing and media efforts. Given the strength of the Progressive brand and our advertising experience, this can frequently be greater consideration or at bats than many of these participating brands would experience on their own.
除了提供种类繁多的保险之外，我们还希望通过教育和选择，确保客户在购买保险时充满信心。除了我们自己承保的保单外，我们还能提供其他保险公司的报价，确保客户在做出决定时感到有力量，并对价格和承保范围充满信心。此外，我们的客户还能从我们一流的报价功能带来的轻松购物体验中获益，从而节省时间并减少挫折感。在考虑我们参与网络的承保商所享有的利益时，首先要考虑的是他们通过 Progressive 的营销和媒体努力获得的数百万合格客户。考虑到 Progressive 品牌的实力和我们的广告经验，这往往比许多参与品牌自身所经历的更多考虑或更多。
这个说法很好，保险产品好不好？背后的保险公司有没有赔付能力是可以实证的。
Progressive also understands what is critical to writing profitable business. So we allow the carriers on our network to apply any of their proprietary acceptance and pricing rules in addition to our strong adherence to any provided procedures as of their appointed agencies. Furthermore, Progressive has been a leader in innovative customer experiences, both off-line and online for many years. Being a part of our carrier network allows for leveraging these experiences to efficiently and effectively quote and bind customers which presumably leads to positive brand association for our participating carriers.
Progressive 也了解承保盈利业务的关键所在。因此，我们允许我们网络中的承保人采用其专有的承保和定价规则，同时我们也严格遵守其指定机构提供的任何程序。此外，多年来，Progressive 一直是线上线下创新客户体验的领导者。作为我们承运商网络的一部分，我们可以利用这些经验为客户提供高效报价和绑定服务，从而为我们的参与承运商带来积极的品牌联想。
Finally, the creation of the Progressive Advantage Agency creates a multitude of benefits for Progressive and our shareholders. I will be highlighting many of these in more details in the upcoming slides. But in general, this Destination Era Strategy allows us to achieve greater top line growth, better efficiency in our media spend, extends household retention and serves as a stable source of revenues complementary to our underwriting profits.
最后，Progressive Advantage Agency 的成立为 Progressive 和我们的股东带来了诸多益处。我将在接下来的幻灯片中详细介绍其中的许多好处。但总的来说，这一 "目的地时代战略 "使我们能够实现更高的业绩增长，提高媒体支出的效率，扩大家庭保有量，并成为与我们的承保利润相辅相成的稳定收入来源。
As we have covered in past IR calls, Progressive has been focused for several years on expanding our addressable market and improving our penetration into multi-product households or Robinsons as well as increasing our product offerings outside of those traditionally underwritten by Progressive. In doing so, we have seen a steady trend up in our multi-product households on both an absolute and relative basis.
正如我们在过去的投资者关系电话会议上所介绍的，几年来，Progressive一直致力于扩大我们的可寻址市场，提高我们对多产品家庭或罗宾逊家庭的渗透率，以及增加我们传统上由Progressive承保的产品以外的产品种类。在此过程中，我们看到我们的多产品家庭在绝对和相对基础上都呈现出稳步上升的趋势。
Through our Progressive Advantage Agency, we are able to offer complementary products within a unified bundle experience. For example, in Personal Lines, we can offer renters and/or home insurance to go along with the customer's auto policy or in Commercial Lines where we are able to offer general liability or business owner policies to complement their commercial auto coverage. These are prime examples of how the internal agency is able to help us provide a full suite of insurance solutions to meet customer needs and in turn help us grow.
通过 Progressive Advantage 代理公司，我们能够在统一的捆绑体验中提供互补产品。例如，在个人保险方面，我们可以提供租房者和/或房屋保险，与客户的汽车保险配套；在商业保险方面，我们可以提供一般责任保险或企业主保险，与客户的商业汽车保险配套。这些都是内部机构如何帮助我们提供全套保险解决方案以满足客户需求并进而帮助我们发展的典型例子。
Another important component to our overall growth strategy is understanding how consumers view comparison quoting experiences. We know through our research that there are many key drivers of consumer consideration and ultimately, how they decide what insurance carriers they're going to receive a quote or purchase a policy from. Several of these considerations align nicely with the solutions that we are delivering as part of the Progressive Advantage Agency. This includes consumer confidence that they're getting the right coverage or rates, making the entire insurance process easy to navigate, feeling in control of their insurance decisions, getting good value and demonstrating an understanding of what is important to the consumers. Each of these drivers is met in some way through our comparison quoting experiences and agency operation, and will serve as guiding principles as we expand and refine our consumer messages and experiences.
我们整体增长战略的另一个重要组成部分是了解消费者如何看待比较报价体验。通过研究我们了解到，消费者考虑的关键因素有很多，他们最终是如何决定接受哪家保险公司的报价或购买哪家保险公司的保单的。其中一些考虑因素与我们作为 Progressive Advantage Agency 的一部分提供的解决方案非常吻合。这包括让消费者相信他们获得了正确的保险或费率，让整个保险流程变得简单易懂，让消费者感觉能够掌控自己的保险决策，获得物超所值的服务，以及展示出我们对消费者重要需求的理解。通过我们的比较报价体验和机构运营，这些驱动因素都以某种方式得到了满足，并将作为我们扩展和完善消费者信息和体验的指导原则。
Along with the previous slide, these top of funnel benefits are foundational to the win-win-win dynamic that I started with. As these expand the total volume shopping with Progressive and thus leads to a greater pie to be shared by Progressive and our network of carriers. This offsets any minimal cannibalization risk that may be present through the providing of comparison quotes. With that said, we monitor very closely these trade-offs to ensure we achieve the most optimal outcomes.
与上一张幻灯片一样，这些漏斗顶端利益是我开始提到的三赢动态的基础。由于这些好处扩大了 Progressive 的购物总量，从而使 Progressive 和我们的承保商网络能够分享到更大的蛋糕。这就抵消了通过提供比较报价可能存在的最小蚕食风险。尽管如此，我们仍会密切关注这些权衡，以确保实现最佳结果。
As highlighted in the last two slides, the Progressive Advantage Agency operation allows us to attract more customers at the top of the funnel and drive them to progressive.com or to our call centers. The next critical step is to get the most out of these interactions. Our multi-carrier model allows for a greater likelihood of returning competitive rates that meet consumers' needs. As the chart on the left indicates, by having more carrier appointments in a geography, we increase the likelihood that we can return at least one rate for our consumer. This is not surprising, but still critical in the face of greater underwriting restrictions for specific products such as homeowners.
正如最后两张幻灯片所强调的，Progressive Advantage 代理业务使我们能够在漏斗顶端吸引更多客户，并将他们引向 progressive.com 或我们的呼叫中心。下一个关键步骤是充分利用这些互动。我们的多运营商模式使我们更有可能提供有竞争力的费率，满足消费者的需求。如左图所示，在一个地区有更多的承保人预约，我们就更有可能为消费者返回至少一个费率。这一点不足为奇，但在房主等特定产品的承保限制增加的情况下，这一点仍然至关重要。
As a result of our carrier coverage, we were able to successfully provide a home or condo rate to more than 80% of all shoppers seeking these coverages on progressive.com in 2023. Additionally, we know that offering multiple comparison rates increases the chance we return a competitive rate to the customer. The chart on the right indicates that our conversion relativity is directly correlated with the number of rates we return. While there is diminishing return with every addition, we have seen more than a doubling of our conversion rate due to our portfolio of carriers as compared to a single carrier platform. This means more people finding a policy that works for them and more households having a relationship with Progressive. Transitioning from getting more customers in the door, I would like to highlight the value of the internal agency and maintaining these relationships through increased retention.
由于我们的承保范围，在 2023 年，我们能够成功地为所有在 progressive.com 上寻求此类保险的购物者中的 80% 以上提供住房或公寓保险费率。此外，我们知道，提供多种比较费率可以增加我们向客户提供有竞争力费率的机会。右图显示，我们的转换相对性与我们返回的费率数量直接相关。虽然每增加一个承保人，回报率就会减少，但与单一承保人平台相比，我们的承保人组合使我们的转换率提高了一倍多。这意味着更多的人找到了适合自己的保单，更多的家庭与 Progressive 建立了合作关系。在争取更多客户的同时，我想强调一下内部代理的价值，以及通过提高客户保留率来维护这些关系的价值。
As mentioned earlier, our goal is to meet customer needs throughout their lifetime. We hope that the policy we initially sell to a customer does just that. However, if this initial policy is no longer the best match, we have the ability to offer alternative carriers and coverage that may be a better fit. In doing so, we maintain a relationship with that customer and household longer. In the current environment, while rates are rising and underwriting is more restrictive, the ability to shop several carriers across the same product produces significant value to the customer and in turn Progressive.
如前所述，我们的目标是满足客户一生的需求。我们希望最初出售给客户的保单能够做到这一点。但是，如果最初的保单不再是最佳匹配，我们有能力提供其他可能更适合的承保人和承保范围。这样，我们就能与客户和家庭保持更长久的关系。在当前的环境下，虽然费率不断上涨，承保限制也越来越多，但在同一产品上选择几家承保人的能力为客户带来了巨大的价值，进而也为 Progressive 带来了巨大的价值。
Within our homeowners portfolio, we see that we extend this household relationship nine months longer on average as a result of this multi-carrier safe practice. The other form of retention benefits comes as a result of increasing the number of policies that exist within a household. Not only does selling an additional policy lead to increased sales and profit from those other policies, but the expected retention of the original policy also dramatically improves. Across all products within our portfolio, the policy life expectancy grows meaningfully as you add products to the relationship and by a magnitude of up to 2x or more.
在我们的房主组合中，我们看到，由于采用了这种多承保人安全做法，我们平均将这种家庭关系延长了 9 个月。另一种形式的保单留存收益来自于家庭保单数量的增加。销售额外保单不仅会增加其他保单的销售额和利润，而且原有保单的预期留存率也会大幅提高。在我们产品组合中的所有产品中，保单预期寿命都会随着产品关系的增加而显著增长，增长幅度可达 2 倍或更多。
It is important to note that we see this retention improvement, whether they are Progressive underwritten policies or network carrier policies, leading us to believe that meeting all insurance needs is the driver of customer loyalty even if we leverage other insurance carriers to do so. Many of these benefits come together in what we call a media virtuous cycle. With access to a multicarrier model, we can offer consumers more choice that meets their needs. In doing so, this elevates our sales yield per visitor to progressive.com or into our call centers. Getting a more efficient return on every visitor to Progressive allows us to increase our media spend while still hitting our target economics. This increased spend drives greater awareness of Progressive's offerings, driving traffic to progressive.com, our call centers as well as our appointed independent agents.
值得注意的是，无论是 Progressive 承保的保单还是网络承保的保单，我们都看到了这种保有率的提高，这让我们相信，满足所有保险需求是客户忠诚度的驱动力，即使我们利用其他保险公司来实现这一点。我们称之为媒体良性循环。通过多承保人模式，我们可以为消费者提供更多的选择，满足他们的需求。这样一来，我们在 progressive.com 上或呼叫中心的每位访客的销售收益都会提高。Progressive 的每位访问者都能获得更高效的回报，这使我们能够在达到目标经济效益的同时增加媒体支出。支出的增加提高了人们对 Progressive 产品的认知度，为 progressive.com、我们的呼叫中心以及我们指定的独立代理商带来了流量。
This, in turn, increases the volume available to Progressive and the carriers within our network, incentivizing more carrier participation within our agency, strengthening the multi-carrier model further. This starts the cycle all over again. As we have especially seen in recent years, marketing spend is an important tool to stand out in the crowded insurance marketplace. This virtuous cycle is valuable to ensuring Progressive can rationally be in the top tier of marketing spenders and further widens the financial moat with lesser-known brands.
这反过来又增加了 Progressive 和我们网络内承运商的业务量，激励更多的承运商参与我们的代理，进一步加强了多承运商模式。如此循环往复。近年来，我们尤其看到，营销费用是在拥挤的保险市场中脱颖而出的重要工具。这种良性循环对于确保 Progressive 能够合理地跻身营销支出的前列，以及进一步拓宽与知名度较低的品牌之间的财务护城河，都是非常有价值的。
The scaling of the Progressive Advantage Agency and its corresponding revenue expansion has several risk mitigating benefits. Commission revenue is a predictable annuity and has minimal exposure to the loss and cap risks that come along with underwriting insurance policies directly. This includes prominent risks such as weather and natural disasters. As agency compensation is really directly impacted by these risk exposures, this serves as a complementary source of revenue to our standard underwriting operation.
Progressive Advantage 代理公司的规模扩大及其相应的收入增加有几个降低风险的好处。佣金收入是一种可预测的年金，与直接承保保单所带来的损失和上限风险相比，其风险最小。这包括天气和自然灾害等突出风险。由于代理报酬确实直接受到这些风险的影响，因此这成为我们标准承保业务的补充收入来源。
Additionally, as previously highlighted, meeting more customer needs strengthens our brand and improves our sales yield, mitigating some of the standard competitive risk that insurance companies face. The many benefits that I've highlighted, stemming from the PAA can be found throughout our income statement. Our top line net premiums earned includes the premiums from our Progressive's underwritten products and is impacted by the agency's brand and consideration lift, the household retention improvements, increased additional protection sales and the increased media spend associated with the PAA operation.
此外，正如之前所强调的，满足更多的客户需求可以加强我们的品牌，提高我们的销售收益，从而降低保险公司所面临的一些标准竞争风险。我所强调的 PAA 带来的诸多好处在我们的损益表中随处可见。我们的顶线净保费收入包括 Progressive 承保产品的保费，并受到代理公司的品牌和关注度提升、家庭保有率提高、额外保障销售增加以及与 PAA 业务相关的媒体支出增加的影响。
Additionally, our success is penetrating the Robinson customer segment roll up within these figures. As we have expanded our PAA operation and product offerings, we have experienced net earned premium growth for Robinsons that has outpaced that of our other customer segments. The service revenue line on the income statement includes the commissions earned from our carrier network. As the chart on the lower right demonstrates this is the most direct way to gauge the trajectory of our internal agency operation as it clearly shows our steady growth throughout the past decade.
此外，在这些数据中，我们成功地渗透到了罗宾逊客户群。随着我们扩大 PAA 业务和产品范围，罗宾逊客户的净保费收入增长超过了其他客户群。利润表中的服务收入项目包括从我们的承保人网络中赚取的佣金。如右下角的图表所示，这是衡量我们内部代理业务轨迹的最直接方法，因为它清楚地显示了我们在过去十年中的稳步增长。
While it has not lost and made this as an Investor Relations call, and thus, the financial results are the primary focus, the story of the Progressive Advantage Agency still really comes down to the customer journey and ensuring that we are offering products and services that meet our customers' needs. Kathy previously highlighted the journey of Sam and Ashley as they progress through their lives and the evolution of their insurance needs along the way. Without bringing together a network of insurance carriers who offer complementary products like BOP or Life Insurance, we may not have been in a position to satisfy all of these needs and possibly would have lost the household relationship entirely.
虽然它没有失去投资者关系电话会议的地位，因此财务业绩是主要关注点，但 Progressive Advantage Agency 的故事仍真正归结为客户之旅，并确保我们提供的产品和服务满足客户的需求。凯西之前强调了山姆和阿什利的人生历程以及他们保险需求的变化。如果没有汇集提供 BOP 或人寿保险等互补产品的保险公司网络，我们可能无法满足所有这些需求，甚至可能完全失去家庭关系。
Happily, this is not the case as we are pleased to be able to continue to build and grow our Progressive Advantage Agency with a full suite of insurance products and a network of participating carriers. And ultimately, we believe, make good on our win-win-win strategy of delivering value to our direct customers, our network of carriers and to Progressive and our shareholders through the operation of this best-in-class internal agency.
令人高兴的是，情况并非如此，我们很高兴能够继续建立和发展我们的 Progressive Advantage 代理公司，提供全套保险产品和参与承保人网络。我们相信，通过运营这家一流的内部代理公司，我们将最终实现三赢战略，为我们的直接客户、我们的承保人网络以及 Progressive 和我们的股东创造价值。
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions, including presenters, Lori Niederst, Kathy Lemieux and Sean Freeman, who can answer questions about the presentation. [Operator Instructions]. In order to get to as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We will now take our first question.
今天活动的录制到此结束。我们现在有管理团队的成员现场回答问题，包括主持人 Lori Niederst、Kathy Lemieux 和 Sean Freeman，他们可以回答有关演讲的问题。[接线员指令]：为了尽可能多地回答问题，请限制在一个问题和一个跟进问题之内。现在开始第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator操作员
Thank you. Our first question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.
谢谢。第一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Michael Zaremski。您的电话已接通
Michael Zaremski
迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Hey, great. Good morning. Thanks. The first question is regarding some of the commentary regarding kind of going back on the growth offensive given that profits are healed in a good chunk of your territories. So I guess on the last earnings call, I recall you alluded to growth likely being a little more subdued versus the beginning of '23 when you last found me offensive. So I guess is that still the right way to think about things? Or any context around how you're thinking about growth, either by state or direct versus agency channel would be helpful?
嘿，太好了早上好 - 谢谢 - Good morning.谢谢。第一个问题是关于一些评论的，鉴于你们大部分地区的利润已经痊愈，所以要重新发动增长攻势。我想，在上次的财报电话会议上，我记得你曾暗示，与 23 年初相比，增长可能会更加低迷。那么，我想这仍然是正确的思考方式吗？或者你是如何考虑增长的，是按州还是按直接渠道还是按代理渠道？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. Thanks, Mike. Here's how we're thinking about growth right now, which is somewhat different and somewhat alike last year. So we went into 2023 feeling like we had the right rate in the system. Clearly, as the year unfolded, and we realized that inflations were still going up, so they hadn't abated, and we needed more rate. So our sole concentration last year was to get the right rate on the street. And we feel like we're in a really great position right now. So if you think about the overarching belief that we have the right rates in the system, and we believe we do now understand there's all the caveats about we don't have every state. We're still working with some states to get rate.
是的，谢谢，迈克。我们现在是这样考虑增长的，这与去年有些不同，也有些相似。进入 2023 年时，我们觉得系统中的增长率是正确的。很明显，随着时间的推移，我们意识到通货膨胀仍在上升，所以并没有减弱，我们需要更多的费率。因此，我们去年的唯一目标就是在市场上获得合适的费率。我们觉得我们现在处于一个非常有利的位置。所以，如果你认为我们的总体信念是，我们的系统中已经有了正确的费率，我们相信我们现在已经做到了，但需要注意的是，我们并不是每个州都有正确的费率。我们仍在与一些州合作，以获得费率。
巴菲特强调通胀是所有人的敌人，而保险是对抗通胀的好业务，保险是根据定价的，车子、房子涨了，损失的价值也会跟着涨，并且保险是每年重新定价的产品，很容易跟上通胀的节奏。
But for the most part, we feel really good about our rate. This is how we're thinking about growth, really sort of the trifecta. So we have a continued hard market. Ambient shopping is still up. So we know our competitors are still getting rate. So those customers are shopping and we're able to get that at a really inexpensive acquisition cost. Then we also know that we're unraveling a lot of our non-rate actions, our underwriting actions. We talked about that a little bit in November, but we're going to continue to do that.
但在大多数情况下，我们对自己的增长率感觉非常好。这就是我们考虑增长的方式，真正的三位一体。因此，我们有一个持续坚挺的市场。环境购物仍在增长。因此，我们知道我们的竞争对手仍在提高费率。因此，这些客户正在购物，而我们能够以非常低廉的获取成本获得这些客户。此外，我们还知道，我们正在采取许多非费率行动和承保行动。我们在 11 月份谈了一点，但我们会继续这样做。
And then really the third part of that trifecta is our ability to be able to spend a lot on media. So we are really excited about heading into 2024. Obviously, my whole theme for the annual report was uncertainty. So, or the letter I should say, is uncertainty. We feel much more certain and much more confident we will watch as the data unfolds, and we're pretty excited.
三部曲的第三部分是我们有能力在媒体上投入大量资金。因此，我们对进入 2024 年感到非常兴奋。显然，我的年度报告的整个主题就是不确定性。所以，或者我应该说，这封信就是不确定性。随着数据的展开，我们感到更加确定，也更有信心，我们非常兴奋。
流量的转化需要有完善的软件能力。
The one caveat I would say, Mike, is when we're starting to look at first quarter of this year versus first quarter of last year, you're going to see some really odd comparisons on new App growth. So we are growing new Apps like crazy last year. In fact, on the Direct Side, our new apps were up 93%. Overall, in Auto up, I think, like 83% or 82%. So huge comparisons if you're going to compare it to this quarter. So keep that in mind as this quarter closes, we believe it will smooth out over the year, but that's something we should just make a note of.
迈克，我想说的一点是，当我们开始关注今年第一季度与去年第一季度的对比时，你会发现在新应用程序的增长方面存在一些非常奇怪的对比。去年，我们的新应用程序在疯狂增长。事实上，在直销方面，我们的新应用程序增长了 93%。总体而言，汽车行业增长了 83% 或 82%。因此，如果要与本季度进行比较，比较结果是巨大的。所以请记住，随着本季度的结束，我们相信今年的情况会趋于平稳，但这是我们应该注意的。
Michael Zaremski
迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Okay. That's helpful. My last follow-up is regarding your commentary about segmentation and continuous product model delivery is the term you also use in the letter. And I appreciate that it's probably, some of this is your special sauce and you might be, you want to be limited to how much you can say. But I'm curious, if we look at Progressive frequency and severities, but especially frequency over time, it tends to be better than the industry. I know there's different definitions.
好的这很有帮助。我的最后一个问题是关于你对细分市场和持续产品模式交付的评论，你在信中也用到了这个词。我很理解，这可能是你的特殊调味汁，你可能想限制自己的话语权。但我很好奇，如果我们看看Progressive的频率和严重程度，尤其是随着时间推移的频率，它往往比行业要好。我知道有不同的定义。
So you reminded us of frequency and severity, too? So we've got to be a little bit careful. But I think Progressive still continues to do better than the industry on loss cost trends. Curious if you're willing to add any context about what - what's driving the pricing segmentation? And is telematics a material kind of driver of you being able to do that? Thanks.
所以你也提醒了我们频率和严重程度？所以我们得小心一点。但我认为，在损失成本趋势方面，Progressive 的表现仍然优于同行业。我很好奇，你是否愿意补充一些关于定价细分的背景情况？远程信息处理技术（telematics）是否是你们能够做到这一点的主要驱动力？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean I think our continuous product model is our secret sauce. Over the years, I think we've sort of shared not in a lot of detail, but how each model sort of adds segmentation and gets us to where we want, especially with the preferred customer. UBI is a big part of it and has been for a long time, and that will continue to be and why we're investing more and more into our latest product model, which is our continuous.
是的，我认为我们的持续产品模式是我们的秘诀。多年来，我认为我们已经分享了很多细节，但每种模式如何增加细分，让我们达到我们的目标，尤其是优先客户。UBI 是其中的一个重要部分，长期以来一直如此，今后也将继续如此，这也是我们对最新产品模式（即我们的持续产品模式）投入越来越多的原因。
I think with the Florida added this year, we're at about 70% continuous, and we're learning a lot from that. And we'll be able to do a lot for our customers as well. So maybe at some time when we do some of the deep dives, we can share a little bit more about how we think about our [product mass] [ph]. We're never going to share a secret sauce because that is just that. But we literally have our R&D departments working in both Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Property, nonstop, thinking about the next model to just get that extra piece of data to understand how it correlates to loss costs.
我认为，加上今年新增的佛罗里达州，我们的连续性已达到约 70%，我们正在从中学到很多东西。我们也能为客户做很多事情。因此，也许在某个时候，当我们进行一些深入研究时，我们可以分享更多关于我们如何思考我们的[产品质量][音]的信息。我们永远不会分享秘诀，因为那就是秘诀。但我们的研发部门在个人险、商业险和财产险领域都在不停地工作，思考下一个模型，以获得额外的数据，了解它与损失成本之间的关联。
数据以及数据的整理能力，从大的层面观察，有这种能力的很早就有，没有的始终没有，可以解释大型科技的版图为什么越来越大。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
I can also add that you're right. When you look over even decades, you see our frequency being more favorable than the industry and severity being somewhat similar to the industry. And Tricia noted what we believe are some of the key drivers, but we are also continuing to shift the mix of our business to more preferred customers who generally have lower claims frequency. So, it's hard to parse out exactly which piece of those frequency trends are the aforementioned, but we should note that we're also moving more and more to preferred and that will drive the frequency down as well.
我还可以补充一点，你是对的。纵观过去几十年，我们的理赔频率高于同行业，理赔严重程度也与同行业相近。特里西娅指出了我们认为的一些关键驱动因素，但我们也在继续将我们的业务组合转向通常理赔频率较低的首选客户。因此，很难说清楚上述频率趋势中的哪一部分，但我们应该注意到，我们也在越来越多地转向首选客户，这也将推动频率的下降。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。您的电话已接通。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Maybe just a follow-up on one of the comments that you made when you earlier talked about you plan to spend a lot on media to drive growth. Can you maybe help us understand like when you say a lot, like how should we think about it from just a modeling a forecasting perspective because, the way we think about it, obviously, there's going to be a lot of growth potential for Progressive. How should we think about the impact on expense ratio? And as well as what is a ballpark target that you're thinking about when you're normalizing expense back to a more historical level?
我想跟进一下你刚才谈到的一个问题，你计划在媒体上投入大量资金来推动增长。你能不能帮助我们理解你所说的大量投入，比如我们应该如何从建模和预测的角度来考虑这个问题，因为从我们的角度来看，Progressive 显然会有很大的增长潜力。我们应该如何考虑对费用率的影响？还有，当你们将费用恢复到历史水平时，你们考虑的大致目标是什么？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I would say back to more historical levels. We've had a couple, several rough years where we've had to pull back on media. I mentioned that in my letter. They've been incredible. We have a media machine, a marketing machine and both are working really well, and we want to leverage that. We're not going to spend if we don't think it's efficient.
是的，我会说回到历史水平。在过去的几年里，我们经历了一些困难，不得不缩减媒体投入。我在信中提到了这一点。他们的表现令人难以置信。我们有一台媒体机器和一台营销机器，两台机器都运作得非常好，我们希望充分利用这两台机器。如果我们认为没有效益，我们就不会花钱。
So when I talked about our growth in sort of the trifecta, we're getting a lot of ambient shopping still, and we'll continue to watch that. However, we think there's an opportunity to kind of open up the spigot and get more business in the door. We feel like we're in a really prime time now, especially with our rates. So while we're not going to share our full budget, we believe we can spend assuming all things with our pricing is right and we get some pricing and some rate in some of the states that we need, I think we'll be able to spend a tremendous amount to really leverage what we think could be a great growth year.
因此，当我谈到我们在这三方面的增长时，我们仍然获得了大量的环境购物，我们将继续关注这一点。不过，我们认为现在有机会打开水龙头，让更多的商家进门。我们觉得现在正处于黄金时期，尤其是在费率方面。因此，虽然我们不会透露全部预算，但我们相信，假设我们的定价一切正常，并且我们在一些州获得了一些定价和费率，我认为我们将能够花费大量资金来真正利用我们认为可能是一个巨大增长的一年。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Okay. That's very helpful. My second question, I think, you addressed some of this in the prepared remarks. I just want to see if we can deep a little bit -- dig a little bit deeper into it is the broader competitive environment, and obviously, it seems like you made it very clear that you want to expand, especially in the off market, the bundled market Robinsons market, so to speak. But is there, can you maybe give us a more in-depth view on what are the competitors that are already in those position? What is the current environment look like for you to take share? Is it going to be in your view, much more difficult than before? Or is the current environment a much easier competitive dynamic for you to grab market share, especially within the Robinsons market?
好的这很有帮助。我的第二个问题，我想，你在准备好的发言稿中提到了一些。我只是想看看，我们是否可以深入一点--更深入一点--挖掘更广泛的竞争环境，很明显，你似乎非常明确地表示，你想扩张，尤其是在非市场、捆绑市场、罗宾逊市场，可以这么说。但是，你能不能向我们更深入地介绍一下已经处于这些位置的竞争对手有哪些？目前的环境对你们抢占市场份额有什么影响？在你看来，这是否会比以前困难得多？或者说，目前的竞争环境是否更容易让你们抢占市场份额，尤其是在罗宾逊市场？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I think that has to do a lot with timing. So a lot of our competitors have increased rates as well pretty substantially. So there's a sort of a time frame. I don't know exactly when that is. But right now, we believe, we are able to take market share. Again, there'll be some, at some point, there'll be stable rates throughout the industry and there'll be less shopping. Really, the key for us in terms of market share will be to grab as much new business at or below our target market -- target profit.
是的。我认为这与时机有很大关系。因此，我们的许多竞争对手也大幅提高了费率。所以有一个时间框架。我不确定具体是什么时候。但现在，我们相信，我们能够夺取市场份额。再次，总有一天，整个行业的费率会稳定下来，购物行为会减少。对我们来说，真正关键的是，在或低于我们的目标利润率的情况下，尽可能多地获取新业务。
市场波动总是有利于强势企业。
And really, the holy grail is retention and keeping those customers. So the key this year for us because we've had so many years of rate after rate is to have some stability for our customers. They deserve that. We want that. Of course, we'll watch the trends, and we'll have to react to those trends. But I'd like some stable rates because I think if we've got the new business coming in the door and then people staying with us, that is a huge win.
实际上，最重要的是留住客户。因此，今年对我们来说，关键在于为客户保持一定的稳定性，因为我们已经经历了这么多年的费率波动。这是他们应得的。我们也希望如此。当然，我们会关注趋势，我们必须对这些趋势做出反应。但我希望能有一些稳定的费率，因为我认为，如果我们有新的业务进来，然后人们留在我们这里，这就是一个巨大的胜利。
And then, of course, Robinsons, we've continued to grow. We're excited about continuing to invest in our HomeQuote Explorer and the Progressive Advantage Agency. Working with great partners in that.
当然，Robinsons 也在持续增长。我们很高兴能继续投资于我们的 HomeQuote Explorer 和 Progressive Advantage Agency。在这方面，我们与伟大的合作伙伴携手合作。
Bob Huang
鲍勃-黄
Okay. Thank you very much. I think after all these years, we're all looking for comfortability. So thank you for that.
好的 非常感谢 Okay.非常感谢我想经过这么多年 我们都在寻找舒适感谢谢你
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Absolutely. Thanks, Bob.
当然可以。谢谢，鲍勃。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。您的电话已接通
Joshua Shanker
约书亚-尚克
Yes, hi there. Thank you for taking my question. My first question, given the growth the company has had over the last couple of years, can you talk about what economy of scale has done to the other expense ratio?
是的，您好。感谢您接受我的提问。我的第一个问题是，考虑到公司过去几年的增长，你能谈谈规模经济对其他费用率的影响吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, I think any time you have an economies of scale, you'll be able to push down the expense ratio. We're always trying to balance out our expenses with investments and what the customers want. So digital and other things like that. So the bigger you get, I think the more you can, whether it's brand or expenses you can push on that, but we have been investing a lot in digital for our customers, and we'll continue to do that. One of our other pillars, and we talked about broad coverage today is competitive prices.
我认为，任何时候只要有规模经济，就能降低费用率。我们一直在努力平衡支出与投资以及客户需求之间的关系。所以，数字化和其他类似的东西。因此，我认为规模越大，就越能在品牌或费用方面有所突破，但我们一直在为客户的数字化需求进行大量投资，而且我们会继续这样做。我们的其他支柱之一，也就是我们今天谈到的广泛覆盖面，是具有竞争力的价格。
PGR的目标很清晰，GEICO看着不是对手，或许需要换一个更能干的操盘手。
And the two parts of competitive prices are really what we talked about a little bit earlier with Mike's question, that's segmentation having industry-leading segmentation. Understanding rate to risk. And the other is expenses. And we are constantly challenging ourselves to what's that right balance of investing, but getting those economies of scale. We'll continue to work on that for as long as I'm here for sure. And as long as John Sauerland is for sure.
有竞争力的价格的两个部分就是我们之前在回答迈克的问题时谈到的，即细分市场，拥有行业领先的细分市场。了解风险率。另一个是费用。我们一直在挑战自己，如何在投资和规模经济之间取得平衡。只要我还在这里，我们就会继续努力。只要约翰-绍尔兰还在，我们就会继续努力。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
Josh, sorry. As I think you know, we focus internally on what we call our non-acquisition expense ratio. So we talked a lot about media. We're always looking to optimize media relative to where we are in terms of rate adequacy and market opportunity on the non-acquisition expense ratio side, we're always looking to optimize costs. And of course, scale is a part of the way to do that. We have been successful in taking, if you look over the longer run, at least four points out of our cost structure on our non-acquisition expense ratio. Tricia mentioned, it's always a balance in investing and relative to the longer run, but we continue to expect to find opportunities to drive our non-acquisition expense ratio lower across all three of our businesses.
乔希，抱歉。我想你也知道，我们内部把重点放在所谓的非收购费用率上。因此，我们谈了很多关于媒体的问题。在非并购费用率方面，我们一直在寻找优化媒体的机会，以适应我们在费率充足性和市场机会方面所处的位置，我们一直在寻找优化成本的机会。当然，规模也是实现这一目标的途径之一。如果从长远来看，我们已经成功地将非收购费用率的成本结构降低了至少四个百分点。特里西娅提到，投资和长期投资之间总是存在平衡，但我们仍希望找到机会，降低所有三项业务的非收购费用率。
Joshua Shanker
约书亚-尚克
My other question at this point in the cycle where Progressive seems to be profitable and most of the competition is not. What does the marketplace look like for commissions right now? Both contingent commissions as well as base rate commissions?
我的另一个问题是，在这个周期中，Progressive 似乎有利可图，而大多数竞争对手却无利可图。现在市场上的佣金情况如何？包括或有佣金和基本佣金？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I can let Pat take that. I mean we, our commissions have been pretty stable and we have different structures depending on if we have a Platinum agent and some other programs we have with different agents I think, I don't want to speak too specifically to our competitors because they also ebb and flow.
我可以让帕特来接这个电话。我的意思是，我们的佣金一直很稳定，我们有不同的结构，这取决于我们是否有一个白金代理，以及我们与不同代理合作的一些其他项目，我想，我不想太具体地谈论我们的竞争对手，因为他们也有起伏。
Pat Callahan
帕特-卡拉汉
Yes. We've definitely seen competitors use commission cuts as a profitability or margin restoration lever. And we haven't done that. So we've maintained our commission. We do have a contingent component which self-cures when we're not making money, and we think that's a superior design, because you're aligned incentives and when the business performs well, agents get paid well. And when it doesn't, we correct without having to change commission structures and contracts. So we built and deployed that and had that out in market. Now competitors who have pulled back, we know agents have long memories. And we think that will potentially hinder their ability to restore growth when they want to come back in the market later in '24 or beyond.
是的。我们确实看到过竞争对手把削减佣金作为盈利或恢复利润的手段。而我们没有这么做。因此，我们维持了佣金。我们确实有一个或有部分，当我们不赚钱时，它可以自我修复，我们认为这是一个卓越的设计，因为你的激励机制是一致的，当业务表现良好时，代理人就会得到高薪。当业绩不佳时，我们无需改变佣金结构和合同就能纠正。因此，我们建立并部署了这一系统，并将其推向市场。我们知道，代理人的记忆力很强，现在竞争对手已经撤出。我们认为，当他们想在 24 年晚些时候或之后重返市场时，这可能会阻碍他们恢复增长的能力。
Joshua Shanker
约书亚-尚克
Thank you for the answers.
感谢您的回答。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
Robinson segment. So just for clarity, we do have different commission structures for our Platinum agencies to incent the bundle. And we think we're very competitive with the marketplace when it comes to compensating our independent agents for bundled business as well as monoline business. Fair to say.
罗宾逊部分。因此，为了明确起见，我们确实为白金代理机构制定了不同的佣金结构，以激励捆绑业务。我们认为，在对捆绑业务和单一保险业务的独立代理人进行补偿方面，我们在市场上具有很强的竞争力。可以这么说。
Joshua Shanker
约书亚-尚克
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自摩根大通的吉米-布拉尔（Jimmy Bhullar）。您的电话已接通。
Jimmy Bhullar
吉米-布拉尔
Hi, good morning. So just following up on one of your earlier answers, you mentioned the app comparison, comp comparisons being tough and that will suppress growth in the app count in 1Q. Should we assume a similar trend for PIF growth as well to where it will be weaker in 1Q and improve year after? Or does that not apply to PIF growth?
嗨，早上好。我想跟进你之前的一个回答，你提到了应用程序的比较，比较是艰难的，这将抑制第一季度应用程序数量的增长。我们是否应该假设 PIF 的增长也会出现类似的趋势，即在第一季度会有所减弱，而在第二季度则会有所改善？还是说这不适用于 PIF 的增长？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't think you're going to expect as much of a different trend in PIF than New Apps. New Apps were up just so much. Like I said, 92% in direct, 83% overall. It was just a tremendous quarter and we actually tried to slow growth. So you're just going to see a little bit of a negative trend. But I think PIFs, of course, are not just new apps or also our retention. And our preferred year to growth is unit growth because as you've seen over these years where average written premium can go up and down, that's where you want the unit growth to be able to have that stable value company.
我认为你不会期望 PIF 的趋势与新应用程序的趋势有多大不同。新应用程序的增长幅度非常大。就像我说的，直接业务增长 92%，整体增长 83%。这只是一个巨大的季度，我们实际上试图减缓增长。所以你会看到一点负面趋势。当然，我认为 PIF 不仅仅是新的应用程序，也包括我们的留存率。我们的首选增长年度是单位增长，因为你已经看到，这些年来，平均承保保费时高时低，这就是你希望单位增长的地方，以便能够拥有稳定价值的公司。
Jimmy Bhullar
吉米-布拉尔
And the reason I was asking is PIF growth was good in 1Q, but it wasn't sort of outsized. I think you grew 5% in January, 7% in February and 10% in March in personal auto. And then just following up…
我问这个问题的原因是，第一季度的 PIF 增长不错，但并没有超预期。个人汽车业务一月份增长了 5%，二月份增长了 7%，三月份增长了 10%。接下来...
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
It's pretty good on our book. Yes, I would, anything with -- that begins with one and another number, I'm pretty impressed with PIF growth with the book of our size.
对我们的账目来说，这是相当不错的。是的，我会的，任何以 1 和另一个数字开头的东西，在我们这样规模的账簿上，PIF 的增长都给我留下了深刻印象。
Jimmy Bhullar
吉米-布拉尔
Okay. And then just following up on sort of competitor behavior. What are, I realize that you guys are not raising prices as much as many of your peers, because you started repricing your book earlier. But in terms of marketing spend, are you seeing competitors pull back on marketing spend as well as [indiscernible] profitability? Or are they continuing to market pretty heavy?
好的。然后再跟进一下竞争对手的行为。我知道你们不像很多同行那样提价，因为你们更早开始重新定价。但在市场营销支出方面，你们是否看到竞争对手正在缩减市场营销支出以及[无法辨别]盈利能力？还是他们仍在继续大力营销？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
No, I think we're seeing competitors reenter the market, and that's why we believe it's a good time. We're still seeing, like I said, some ambient shopping, but I think it's going to be a really competitive year for everyone, and we're excited about it.
不，我认为我们看到竞争对手重新进入市场，所以我们认为现在是个好时机。就像我说的，我们仍然看到一些环境购物，但我认为，对每个人来说，这都将是充满竞争的一年，我们对此感到非常兴奋。
Jimmy Bhullar
吉米-布拉尔
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Robert Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自高盛集团的罗伯特-考克斯。您的电话已接通。
Robert Cox
罗伯特-考克斯
Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Maybe start off with a little bit of a longer-term question here, but Progressive is a growth company and has certainly been taking share and it seems like you'll be the market leader in personal auto in short order, if you're not already. Is there an internal view on the structural ceiling that Progressive can hold over time? Like is something around the 19% share that State Farm held in the early 2000s aspirational for Progressive? Or do you think you can gain more share than that?
谢谢你接受我的提问。我想先问一个长期的问题，Progressive 是一家成长型公司，一直在抢占市场份额，如果你们还没有成为个人汽车市场的领导者的话，你们似乎很快就会成为市场的领导者。对于 Progressive 能够长期保持的结构性上限，公司内部有什么看法吗？比如，对 Progressive 而言，21 世纪初 State Farm 所占的 19% 左右的份额是否是理想的？或者你认为你能获得比这更多的份额？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I mean we want to grow as much as we possibly can while we make at least $0.04 of underwriting profit. So we're going to continue, we're not going to have a ceiling with that. What we will do is understand the addressable market. And kind of go across both, all of our lines of business to understand where we need to invest, where we need to, where we think we can gain more share. And that's really why we diversify. That's really why we've had the HomeQuote Explorer, BusinessQuote Explorer, AutoQuote Explorer to be able to gather more market share, be transparent for our customers and give them an easy way to shop and save even if it's not with us. That's also one of the reasons why years ago, we set a construct together that we used this McKinsey construct that were called the Three Horizons.
我的意思是，我们希望在获得至少 0.04 美元承保利润的同时，尽可能多地实现增长。因此，我们将继续努力，我们不会为此设置上限。我们要做的是了解可寻址市场。我们要做的是了解可寻址市场，并横跨我们所有的业务范围，了解我们需要在哪里投资，我们需要在哪里投资，我们认为我们可以在哪里获得更多份额。这就是我们多元化的真正原因。这也是我们推出HomeQuote Explorer、BusinessQuote Explorer和AutoQuote Explorer的真正原因，以便能够获得更多的市场份额，为我们的客户提供透明的服务，并为他们提供便捷的购物和储蓄方式，即使不在我们这里购物也是如此。这也是多年前，我们使用麦肯锡的 "三个地平线"（Three Horizons）构建了一个架构的原因之一。
如果某个策略有优势，那么这个策略会用到不能再用为止，对于PGR来说是数字化的能力。
And the first one is execute. We've been working on that since 2016, 2017, and that is execute the heck out of growing or getting as much on private passenger auto and commercial auto and home business that we can as long as we're making money. And we've done extraordinarily well. They're obviously surpassing $61 billion in premiums for 2023. The second horizon is the exciting part in Commercial Lines where we've been growing our BMTs there, but we also have some expansion coverage that we're excited about.
第一个是执行。自 2016 年、2017 年以来，我们一直在努力做到这一点，那就是只要我们能赚钱，我们就会竭尽全力发展或获得尽可能多的私人乘用车、商用车和家用车业务。我们做得非常好。2023 年的保费显然将超过 610 亿美元。第二个地平线是商业险中令人兴奋的部分，我们一直在增长我们的 BMT，但我们也有一些令人兴奋的扩展保险。
We just entered our 45th state with Florida last week. So very excited about that. We obviously bought Protective to have larger fleets. We're now calling Protective just so you know, Progressive fleet and specialty. And of course, our TNC business. So those ancillary products that where we believe we have the right to play and the right to win, and those have been really exciting expansion for Karen and her group.
上周，佛罗里达州刚刚成为我们的第 45 个州。我们对此感到非常兴奋。显然，我们收购 Protective 是为了拥有更大的车队。我们现在叫Protective，就是让你知道，Progressive车队和专业车队。当然，还有我们的 TNC 业务。因此，这些辅助产品，我们相信我们有权利去玩，有权利去赢，这些对于凯伦和她的团队来说，都是非常令人兴奋的扩张。
And then Horizon 3 is a little bit further afield, but those are some products that we believe will fit unmet customer needs and you think kind of longer-term out. So we're constantly in a cycle of three years, five years, 10 years. And in fact, we have our Board retreat later this week to outline how we intend to continue to grow market share across the board and do so in a profitable manner. So we're excited about the future. We're excited about the position we're in at this point given the extreme amount of uncertainty in the last four years. And if there's any team that can do it, it is the team here in Cleveland, Ohio.
地平线 3 号 "则更远一些，但这些都是我们认为能满足客户未满足需求的产品。因此，我们一直处于三年、五年、十年的循环中。事实上，我们将在本周晚些时候召开董事会务虚会，概述我们打算如何继续全面扩大市场份额，并实现盈利。因此，我们对未来充满信心。鉴于过去四年的不确定性极高，我们对目前所处的位置感到兴奋。如果说有哪个团队能做到这一点，那就是俄亥俄州克利夫兰的团队。
Robert Cox
罗伯特-考克斯
Awesome. Thank you so much for that. And maybe just on the second question, I was just hoping you could walk us through some of the larger states that you're not yet rate adequate and what is the game plan for those states?
太棒了非常感谢。关于第二个问题，我希望您能向我们介绍一下，在一些较大的州，您还没有获得足够的评级，在这些州的游戏计划是什么？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, we're, it's typical, some of the typical states you've talked about on the coast, think of New Jersey, New York, California on the direct side. We just got a plus 20 on California agency. So that is a good move towards that. We're having continued conversations because this is really about the consumer. We want to have availability for each consumer to be able to get the coverage they need to protect the things that they love. And all we want to do is try to make $0.04 of underwriting profits. So we're going to continue to work with each insurance department to get the rate that we need and then be fully open and available for those consumers.
嗯，我们通常说的是一些沿海的典型州，想想新泽西、纽约、加利福尼亚在直接保险方面。我们刚刚在加利福尼亚的代理业务上获得了20%的增长。所以这是一个向那个方向的好举措。我们正在进行持续的对话，因为这实际上关乎消费者。我们希望每个消费者都能够获得他们所需的保险覆盖，以保护他们所爱的东西。我们想做的只是尝试赚取每份保险0.04美元的承保利润。因此，我们将继续与每个保险部门合作，以获得我们需要的费率，然后对那些消费者完全开放和可用。
Robert Cox
罗伯特-考克斯
Thanks.谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘。您的电话已接通
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. My first question, going back to the marketing, and I guess maybe a little bit tying into the PIF discussion. As you guys lay out the marketing budget for this year, Tricia, are you expecting it to be even throughout the four quarters? Like how do you think about the cadence of the marketing spend as you think about trying to acquire customers during 2024?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。我的第一个问题是关于市场营销的，我想这可能与 PIF 的讨论有点关联。在你们制定今年的营销预算时，特里西娅，你们是否预计四个季度的预算都会持平？当你们考虑在 2024 年争取客户时，你们如何看待营销支出的节奏？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks, Elyse. So some of the marketing spend, we already like pre-buy. So that's sort of out there. And then other that we have like digital and some other areas where we can be more fluid will react to what's happening in the environment. So if we feel like that our MP6 is down, which is our new prospects, we can increase it. We're always going to do it and try to be efficient around it. That's really the game plan. And again, it has to do with what our customers are doing -- I'm sorry, our competitors are doing.
谢谢，伊丽丝。有些营销费用，我们已经在预购了。所以，这已经是一种外在表现了。其他的，比如数字营销和其他一些领域，我们可以更灵活地应对环境中发生的变化。因此，如果我们觉得 MP6 下降了，也就是我们的新前景下降了，我们可以增加 MP6。我们会一直这样做，并努力提高效率。这就是我们的游戏计划。再说一遍，这与我们的客户在做什么有关 -- 对不起，是我们的竞争对手在做什么。
So it's not an easy question. We continually tweak it to make sure we're efficient while bringing as much new business in the door that we can and then we have some that will already be on the books. Do you want to add anything, Pat?
所以这不是一个简单的问题。我们会不断调整，以确保我们的效率，同时尽可能多地引入新业务，然后我们会有一些已经记在账上的业务。帕特，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Pat Callahan
帕特-卡拉汉
No, I would say we normally pace heavier in Q1 than we do in Q4 because of customer shopping. So just as Tricia said, we'll fish where the fish are. And when there's a lot of people out there in market, we want to advertise to make sure they know where available and to bring them to Progressive. As we've stated this year, we're opening up maybe a little slower than we did in 2023. So from a pacing perspective, we'll probably be more level between Q1, Q2 and Q3 than we historically would have been. But we also know that if the hard market prevails and continues, then we will want to continue to spend up to our allowables to capitalize on growth while people are looking for a new provider of auto home or commercial insurance.
不，我想说的是，由于客户购物的原因，我们在第一季度的步伐通常比第四季度更快。因此，正如特里西娅所说，我们会在有鱼的地方捕鱼。当市场上有很多人的时候，我们要做广告，确保他们知道哪里有卖，把他们带到 Progressive 来。正如我们今年所说的，我们的开业速度可能会比 2023 年慢一点。因此，从节奏的角度来看，我们在第一季度、第二季度和第三季度之间的水平可能会比以往更高。但我们也知道，如果市场持续低迷，那么在人们寻找新的车险、家财险或商业险提供商的时候，我们会希望继续在允许范围内支出，以实现增长。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I don't forget about our other lever, and that is opening up and unraveling our non-rate actions. So we've got a couple of different things in play, and that's the reason to believe, and our reason to believe that we can capture a lot of market share this year. So that's another avenue that we've continued to do since late last year.
是的，我也不会忘记我们的另一个杠杆，那就是开放和解除我们的非利率行动。因此，我们有几种不同的方式在发挥作用，这是我们相信的理由，也是我们相信今年能占领大量市场份额的理由。因此，这也是我们自去年下半年以来一直在做的事情。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
And then my follow-up, you guys saw favorable development in January. For the first time in a while, right, typically, that's a month right when you have late reporting claims from the prior year, what drove that development in January? And does that, was that frequency or severity driven? I'm just wanting to get a sense that there would be some expectations for continuation of that better trend in '24?
我还想问一下，你们在一月份看到了有利的发展。这是一段时间以来的第一次，对吧，通常情况下，这个月会有上一年度的迟报索赔，是什么推动了一月份的发展？是频率驱动还是严重程度驱动？我只是想了解一下，24 年是否有望继续保持这种较好的趋势？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I would say the January decrease. The majority of that was Florida. Most of the other states were pretty tight. Again, it's one month, and we will let that year play out. Gary's team looks at a lot of data each and every month just to make sure were adequately reserved, and I'll let his team do that. It's very separate from. And I'd like Gary do the right thing on behalf of the company, but I wouldn't read too much into January. It's obviously, we're pleased to have favorable development, but it was mostly Florida.
是的，我认为一月份会有所减少。其中大部分是佛罗里达州。其他大部分州都很紧张。再说一遍，这只是一个月的情况，我们会让这一年的情况明朗化。加里的团队每个月都会查看大量数据，以确保储备充足，我会让他的团队去做。这两者是分开的。我希望加里能代表公司做正确的事，但我不会对一月份的事看得太多。很明显，我们很高兴能有有利的发展，但这主要是在佛罗里达州。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Evercore ISI 的 David Motemaden。您的电话已接通。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Hi, good morning. So I had a question just on just -- Tricia, just how impactful you think unraveling some of the nonreactions can be on PIF growth. Just wondering relative to ad spend, historically, has there been more impact to PIF growth from bringing up or down marketing spend compared to non-rate actions? Or can you help size the potential for growth from rolling back those non-rate actions?
嗨，早上好。我有一个关于特里西娅（Tricia）的问题，你认为取消一些非反应措施对 PIF 增长的影响有多大？我只是想知道，相对于广告支出，从历史上看，与非费率行动相比，提高或降低营销支出对 PIF 增长的影响更大吗？或者说，您能否帮助确定削减这些非费率行动的增长潜力？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
It's really hard to size because I think I feel like we've never been tighter in our non-rate actions than we were last year. Again, it's hard to quantify because there's a bunch of different actions we'll do, and we'll do some on different products, different states. It could be different in channels. So it's hard to quantify. I think if you want to have a quicker reaction, the media spend does that. But it's hard to discern exactly what would go into each. What we do know is we were really tight trying to slow growth, making sure we got rate in the system and now we're able to unwind that. But we're not doing it full bore. We're doing it very logically to make sure that we reach our target profit margins.
这真的很难确定规模，因为我觉得我们在非费率行动方面从未像去年那样严格。同样，这也很难量化，因为我们会采取一系列不同的行动，我们会在不同的产品、不同的州采取一些行动。渠道也可能不同。所以很难量化。我认为，如果你想更快地做出反应，媒体支出就能做到这一点。但很难确定每项花费的具体内容。我们所知道的是，我们一直在努力减缓增长，确保系统中的增长率，而现在我们可以放开了。但我们并没有全力以赴。我们的做法非常合理，以确保达到目标利润率。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
And I'd add, if we're looking towards PIF growth, new business is one driver, but retention is a far stronger driver of PIF growth. And as Tricia mentioned, we are looking forward to more stable rates this year. We are feeling very adequate in most environments. So we have already enjoyed retention improvements, and we expect to continue to enjoy retention improvements. Competitors are certainly in a better place, but are continuing to raise rates as well. So on a competitiveness basis when the renewals come through, we think we're going to be in a good place, and that will help drive policy in force growth as well.
我还想补充一点，如果我们着眼于 PIF 的增长，新业务是一个驱动力，但保有业务是 PIF 增长的更大驱动力。正如特里西娅提到的，我们期待今年的费率更加稳定。在大多数环境下，我们都感到非常充足。因此，我们已经享受到了留存率的提高，我们希望继续享受留存率的提高。竞争对手的情况当然更好，但也在继续提高费率。因此，从续保时的竞争力来看，我们认为我们将处于有利位置，这也将有助于推动有效保单的增长。
把承保利润逼到一个窄的区间，谁能做下来就是本事，这跟净资产的大小没什么关系，再大的净资产也不能处于长期亏损的状态，BRK更适合波动率很大的巨灾险。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Got it. Thanks for that. And that sort of leads into my follow-up is just last quarter, I think, Pat, you had said that PLEs and retentions were improving, but not at historical levels. Where are we at now? And just in -- just thinking about that because I recognize there is a tougher comp on new Apps, but I would think the retention comp is also a little bit different as well. So how far away are we from historical retention? Just sort of thinking through some of the drivers of PIF growth?
明白了谢谢。我想这也是我的后续问题，帕特，就在上个季度，你曾说过 PLEs 和 Retentions 正在改善，但还没有达到历史水平。我们现在的情况如何？我只是在思考这个问题，因为我认识到新应用程序的竞争比较激烈，但我认为留存率的竞争也有点不同。那么，我们离历史留存率还有多远？只是思考一下 PIF 增长的一些驱动因素？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't know historical at the top of my head, David, but we're pretty excited about both the trailing three and trailing 12 PLE and where we are from a month. And we sort of have internally, David here that we talk about the value of one month of PLE to our lifetime earned premium. I think we're pretty high.
大卫，我不知道我脑海中的历史数据，但我们对追踪 3 个月和追踪 12 个月的 PLE 以及我们一个月的情况都非常兴奋。大卫，我们在内部讨论过一个月的 PLE 对我们终身已赚保费的价值。我认为我们已经很高了。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
Yes. We are not yet quite back to our all-time high for policy life expectancy. But we're getting there. And our trajectory is certainly indicating that we might be achieving new highs later in the year. We can't project that, obviously. But when you look at the charts, that's what you might conclude. So again, will depend upon the competitive environment. We think we're in a much more stable place, meaning not having to take nearly as much rate as we have historically. The market continues to rise, and we think it's going to play well to policyholder retention.
是的。我们的保单预期寿命还没有恢复到历史最高水平。但我们正在实现这一目标。我们的轨迹无疑表明，我们可能会在今年晚些时候达到新高。显然，我们无法预测。但当你看图表时，你可能会得出这样的结论。所以，这还是取决于竞争环境。我们认为，我们现在的处境要稳定得多，也就是说，我们不需要像历史上那样承担那么多的利率。市场持续上升，我们认为这将有利于保单持有人的保留。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Understood, thank you.
明白，谢谢。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous Research. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Autonomous Research 公司的 Ryan Tunis。您的电话已接通。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Hey, thanks. Good morning. Could you just talk a little bit about, Tricia, I guess, across the book, how you're thinking about severity in 2024?
嘿，谢谢早上好特里西娅，我想，你能谈谈这本书中，你是如何考虑 2024 年的严重性的吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean, I like the fact that severity seemed to moderate a little bit. And so we're hoping that it's a little bit benign. When you look at, last year, we were affected by fixing cars, and that seems to be a little bit calmer. So I think auto parts inflation is nearing 0 and auto services is in the kind of mid-single-digits. So we're, that's how we're thinking about it. We'll obviously watch if something changed as they did last year. But I'm thinking, I think benign and kind of moderate is what I would say from a severity perspective. And I feel the same way with [indiscernible] right in the 8% to 10%.
是的，我的意思是，我喜欢这个事实，即严重程度似乎缓和了一点。所以我们希望它是良性的。再看看去年，我们受到了汽车修理的影响，现在似乎平静了一些。因此，我认为汽车零部件的通胀率接近 0，而汽车服务的通胀率在个位数左右。所以，我们就是这么考虑的。显然，我们会关注是否会像去年那样发生变化。但我认为，从严重性的角度来看，我认为是良性和适度的。我对[听不清]的感觉也是如此，就在8%到10%之间。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Got it. And then I know last year, you kind of shared with us early in the year, I think it was a modest amount of rate that you expected to be taking over the year. You mentioned California, New Jersey, New York. Could you just give us maybe a placeholder for, I guess what you're thinking in the aggregate, if you're able to get those, the rate in those states kind of yes, in the aggregate, what we'll be looking at in terms of rate increases in '24?
知道了。然后我知道，去年，你在年初与我们分享了你预计在这一年中将采取的适量措施。你提到了加利福尼亚、新泽西和纽约。你能不能给我们一个定位，我猜你的总体想法是，如果你能让这些州的费率上升，那么总体而言，我们将在 24 年看到的费率增长是多少？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I really can't share that because it's different with each state. We're in the midst of talking to the departments and showing our verification for needs for those rates. All I can say is that we'll get what we need to, to be at our target profit margins, or won't be able to be as open, which is like I said, unfortunate for consumers. For the rest of the country, we feel good at the rate we have gotten for the last several years. And so that's really what we're focusing on in addition to the conversations and negotiations with our departments.
是的，我真的不能透露，因为每个州的情况都不一样。我们正在与各部门沟通，并就这些费率的需求进行核实。我只能说，我们会得到我们需要的东西，以达到我们的目标利润率，否则就不能像现在这样开放，这就像我说的，对消费者来说是不幸的。对于全国其他地区来说，我们对过去几年的增长率感觉良好。因此，除了与各部门的对话和谈判外，这也是我们关注的重点。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Got it. And then just one more, if I could sneak it in. obviously, progress with the Robinson. Just curious what the geographic diversity of that book looks like versus your broader auto book. Is that still kind of heavily coastal or I guess it doesn't look like the broader agency book does?
知道了很明显，《罗宾逊》一书取得了进展。我只是很好奇，与更广泛的汽车业务相比，这本书的地域多样性如何？是仍然偏重于沿海地区，还是我猜它看起来不像更广泛的代理图书那样？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Are you thinking, are you, Ryan, are you talking more like the property side of the Robinsons?
你在想，你，瑞安，你说的更像是罗宾逊家族的财产吗？
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
On the Auto. So yes, because of the property, it had been coastal, I'm wondering if it's starting to look more like the, how you've historically seen the agency book?
汽车。所以，是的，因为它的属性，它一直是沿海的，我想知道它是否开始看起来更像，你在历史上看到的代理簿？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I think we're trying to make sure that, well, there's Robinsons everywhere. So there could be a different value of the insurability of homes, et cetera. But yes, I think that, obviously, because Robinsons have a property feature to them, and we are getting into more nonvolatile states growth. You'll see Robinsons growth in those states over time. But it will take some time. I mean we were still in the midst of moving our book a little bit away from Florida, as we discussed with our 115,000 non-renewals that actually we set notices out in January, and those will start to non-renew into another company that we're working with to take those should they want them in May, of this year. But yes, we're if you read all the data of our PIF growth, our premium growth and our new app growth in nonvolatile versus volatile, we are ahead of plan, but still a long way to go. But we should grow Robinsons in those areas for sure.
是的，我认为我们正在努力确保，罗宾逊到处都有。因此，房屋的可保价值可能会有所不同，等等。是的，我认为，很明显，因为 Robinsons 具有房产特征，而且我们正在进入更多的非波动性增长状态。随着时间的推移，你会看到 Robinsons 在这些州的增长。但这需要一些时间。我的意思是，我们仍在将我们的业务一点点地从佛罗里达州转移出去，正如我们讨论的那样，我们的 115,000 份未续约合同实际上在一月份就已经发出通知了，这些合同将在今年五月份开始不再续约，我们正在与另一家公司合作，如果他们需要这些合同的话。但是，如果你阅读了我们的 PIF 增长、保费增长和新应用程序增长的所有数据，就会发现，我们的非波动性增长与波动性增长相比，都超前于计划，但仍有很长的路要走。但我们肯定会在这些方面实现增长。
Ryan Tunis
瑞安-突尼斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克-沃德。您的电话已接通。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Thanks. Good morning. Just following up on Elyse's question, the Florida releases. Was that some of the litigation-related reserves from last year? And I guess, how are you feeling about those reserves in that kind of situation?
谢谢。早上好跟进伊丽丝的问题，佛罗里达州的释放。那是去年的一些诉讼相关准备金吗？我想，在这种情况下，你对这些储备有什么看法？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
It was mostly floor to kind of across the board, a couple of different things. Some were some settlements on glass, some from House Bill. So there was a couple of different inputs to the release, we are feeling positive about the tort reform change in Florida. And we're starting to see a little bit of that. I don't want to get ahead of my skis with that. But we believe, especially the new comp negligence law should be very helpful. But again, we'll watch that really closely because it's still new, and there's a lot of things that can unfold, but we're positive about the changes that have been made in Florida.
大部分是全面性的，有几种不同的事情。有些是关于玻璃的和解，有些来自众议院法案。所以有几个不同的因素导致了这次发布，我们对佛罗里达州的侵权法改革感到乐观。我们开始看到一些这方面的影响。我不想过早下结论。但我们相信，尤其是新的工伤疏忽法应该是非常有帮助的。但同样，我们会非常密切地关注这一点，因为这还是新的，还有很多事情可能会展开，但我们对佛罗里达州所做的变化持积极态度。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Okay. Thanks. And then on frequency, curious about frequency kind of like year-to-date? Just following the very favorable December.
好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。关于频率，我想知道今年到目前为止的频率是怎样的？就在非常有利的 12 月份之后。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I don't, if I were looking at frequency, I would look at it more on the trailing 12 over current 12 and about 2% because there's a lot that goes into the data that you saw from this quarter in terms of mix. So John talked about that a little bit. We were really tight with our underwriting. So our mix of business is more preferred which causes less frequency of accidents. You'll hear this a lot. But since we're changing to a Gregorian calendar, there is a little bit of data in there. And then, of course, weather in December was really benign. So I would think that, and of course, we can't predict frequency or severity. But I would be thinking of frequency as more of reverting back to our normal trend ex-all COVID, et cetera, the last 60 years, frequencies continue to decline a couple of points every year.
如果我在看频率，我会更倾向于看过去12个月而不是当前12个月，大约是2%，因为有很多因素影响你从这个季度看到的数据，比如混合比例。约翰稍微提到了这一点。我们在承保方面非常严格。所以我们的业务组合更受青睐，这导致事故发生的频率更低。你会经常听到这个。但是，由于我们正在转向公历，数据中有一点变化。然后，当然，12月的天气非常温和。所以我会这样想，当然，我们无法预测频率或严重程度。但我会把频率看作是回归我们正常趋势的一部分，排除所有COVID等因素的影响，在过去60年中，频率每年都在持续下降几个百分点。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Great, thank you.
太好了，谢谢。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 公司的 Meyer Shields。您的电话已接通
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Great, thank you so much. Two quick questions. First, Tricia, in the past, you talked about how the last sort of piece of the property puzzle was getting non-cat weather price correctly. Do you think that was the issue that kept you above the 96% in 2023?
很好，非常感谢。有两个简单的问题。首先，特里西娅，过去你曾说过，地产拼图的最后一块是如何正确定价非自然灾害气候。你认为是这个问题导致你在 2023 年的收益率低于 96%吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, there's a lot of things that went to that. I'm trying to think of, I was just thinking of January, too, because some of the weather in January was actually nonvolatile. So there's weather just across the board here and there, nothing big with cats. But I would say a lot of things went into 2023. We didn't have the right rate. We're still working on our segmentation. We really in earnest just started to be able to de-risk especially in the really volatile states. And I think all those things together kind of put us where we were at the end of the year.
这其中有很多原因。我在想，我也在想一月份，因为一月份的一些天气其实并不稳定。所以，这里和那里的天气都很普通，没有什么大的自然灾害。但我想说的是，很多事情都进入了 2023 年。我们没有合适的费率。我们仍在努力进行细分。我们才真正开始能够降低风险，尤其是在那些非常不稳定的州。我认为，所有这些因素加在一起，使我们在今年年底取得了不错的成绩。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. The second question is with regards to PAA. Is there any limitation on your like contractual limitations on your ability to use the data from other companies?
好的。第二个问题是关于 PAA 的。你们使用其他公司数据的能力是否有任何限制，比如合同限制？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. We are very, we are, it's a very important thing for the relationships to make sure that their proprietary data is just that, and we don't share it within other places of Progressive. So as an example, there's a company we've worked with for a long time. They're a great partner, and we actually bifurcate the monthly reports, the data because we think that is really important for everyone to have their algorithms and same with ours.
是的。我们非常重视与客户之间的关系，以确保他们的专有数据仅限于此，不会在其他 Progressive 公司内部共享。举个例子，我们和一家公司合作了很长时间。他们是一个很好的合作伙伴，我们实际上将月度报告和数据分开，因为我们认为这对每个人来说都非常重要，他们有自己的算法，我们也有自己的算法。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Okay, perfect. Thank you so much.
好的，太好了非常感谢
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Welcome.欢迎光临
Operator操作员
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Your line is open.
谢谢[接线员指令]请准备下一个问题下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。您的电话已接通
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. Good morning everybody. My first question ties back to Josh's questions on economies of scale and the improving expense ratio. How much room does that leave you guys to maybe increase your ad spend, marketing spend without really compromising on efficiencies and seeing significantly lower incremental returns there?
谢谢。大家早上好。我的第一个问题又回到了乔希关于规模经济和费用率提高的问题上。这给你们留下了多大的空间来增加广告支出、营销支出，而又不真正影响效率，并大幅降低增量回报？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, if you're talking about expense ratio, I would look, I probably look more directly at our direct expense ratio because that's we're going to hit some of the marketing spend. And it's pretty low, especially compared, maybe this isn't the right comparison. Especially compared to January of last year, it was like 4.5 points lower. So there will be pressure on the expense ratio. Even though the marketing spend will be efficient just because it's out there. And you'll see that I would follow the direct spend. If you look at December's direct loss ratio to January. I think December was a little bit over 12%. So you're going to start to see that when we put our media budget into play.
好吧，如果你说的是费用率，我会看看，我可能会更直接地看看我们的直接费用率，因为我们要花费一些营销费用。这个比例相当低，尤其是与去年一月相比，也许这个比较不恰当。特别是与去年一月份相比，低了 4.5 个百分点。因此，费用率将面临压力。尽管营销支出会很有效率，但这只是因为它在那里。你会发现，我会关注直接费用。如果你看一下 12 月份与 1 月份的直接损失率。我认为 12 月份的直接损失率略高于 12%。因此，当我们投入媒体预算时，你就会开始看到这一点。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Right. I guess what I'm trying to get at here is if we go back, we'll see an expense ratio of roughly 20%, which is a mix of ad spend and other stuff. Can you essentially fill the ad spend bucket to get back to 20%? Or is the economies of scale so significant today that, that 20% rate is probably kind of not so relevant anymore?
是的。我想我想说的是，如果我们回到过去，我们会看到一个大约 20% 的费用率，这是广告费用和其他费用的混合。你能从根本上填满广告支出桶，使其回到 20% 的水平吗？或者说，如今的规模经济是否已经非常显著，以至于 20% 的比例可能已经不再那么重要了？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I mean, I'll let Pat add in. I think to John talked a little bit about the non-acquisition expense rate. So I'll show acquisition. I'll let Pat weigh in a little bit. We are not going to spend just to spend to get up to the 20%. We're going to be efficient. Now for some reason, it gets up to 20%, and we are bringing great new business and huge amounts, and we feel great about. That could be one thing. And then we'll continue to focus on the pressuring non-acquisition expense ratio as one part of that formula. Do you want to add anything?
是的，我想让帕特补充一下。我想约翰谈了一点关于非收购费用率的问题。因此，我将展示收购情况。我让帕特补充一下。我们不会为了达到 20% 而花钱。我们要提高效率。现在，出于某种原因，它达到了 20%，我们带来了巨大的新业务和巨额利润，我们对此感觉很好。这可能是一方面。然后，我们将继续关注非收购费用率的压力，将其作为公式的一部分。你还有什么要补充的吗？
Pat Callahan
帕特-卡拉汉
Yes. I think that's your characterization is spot on in that we have a hierarchy of levers that we pull in order to slow the business and in order to grow the business on the other side. So whether it's starting with reducing verification or opening up more favorable bill plans, then spending more than if we're doing all those and unable to drive conversion at a level that we want to grow, we would potentially lower rates at that point. But that's the hierarchy that we're reversing right now. And at this point, what's maybe a little deceiving is average premiums have gone up significantly due to the rate increases, which is driving down that expense ratio.
是的，我认为你的描述非常准确，我们有一系列的杠杆，一方面可以减缓业务增长，另一方面可以促进业务增长。因此，无论是从减少验证开始，还是从开放更优惠的账单计划开始，如果我们做了所有这些却无法将转换率提高到我们希望增长的水平，那么我们就有可能降低费率。但这就是我们现在正在扭转的层次结构。在这一点上，也许有点自欺欺人的是，由于费率上调，平均保费大幅上升，从而降低了费用率。
So even if we got spending back to an absolute dollar basis, where we were in the past, you're not going to get your expense ratio back to where it was in the past. But to Tricia's point, our budget is governed by our ability to efficiently acquire customers against what we expect to be the lifetime value of that customer to Progressive and of course, to make sure we can deliver phenomenal claims and customer service and support the growth on that end. So I hope that helps in that we're not swinging back to 20%. What we're doing is unwinding some of the changes that we've made. Some have very little expense costs associated with them. Media, obviously has a greater cost to it on the other side.
因此，即使我们将支出恢复到过去的绝对美元水平，也无法将支出比率恢复到过去的水平。但是，正如特里西娅所说，我们的预算取决于我们高效获取客户的能力，以及我们预期的客户对 Progressive 的终身价值，当然，还要确保我们能够提供出色的理赔和客户服务，并支持这一端的增长。因此，我希望这对我们不会再回到 20% 的水平有所帮助。我们正在做的是解除我们所做的一些改变。有些变革的相关支出成本很低。媒体方面的成本显然更高。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
Sorry. I just wanted to give a little greater appreciation of how we spend. We do it in an extremely surgical and analytical manner. We have loads in our pricing by customer segment at a very finite level. And so we understand what we can spend to and meet our lifetime combined ratio targets on each customer segment. So as we go into spend, we are not targeting an expense ratio to Pat's point, we are being extremely surgical and targeted in going after customer segments where we know we can spend up to that allowable cost that we have priced into the product at the segment level. A little different approach than I think you're thinking.
对不起。我只是想让大家更多地了解一下我们是如何花钱的。我们是以一种极其严谨和分析性的方式来做这件事的。我们在定价中对客户群进行了精细化管理。因此，我们了解在每个客户群中，我们可以花费多少钱来实现我们的终身综合比率目标。因此，当我们进行支出时，我们并不以帕特所说的支出比率为目标，而是非常谨慎、有针对性地去寻找客户群，因为我们知道在这些客户群中，我们的支出可以达到我们在客户群层面为产品定价的允许成本。这与你们的想法有些不同。
数字化的能力是通用的，特别是竞争对手还不具备的时候。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
I think you just articulated than the way I was able to ask the questions. So thank you, my other question, if we could switch to the commercial book. I think you had some volatility in the TNC business last year, both in terms of the top line growth and more importantly, there's the loss ratio. Can you maybe give us an update where you are today, how comfortable you are with it? But kind of the trajectory you see there?
我觉得你刚才的表述比我提问的方式更清楚。谢谢你，我的另一个问题是关于商业账簿的。我认为你们去年的跨国公司业务出现了一些波动，既有业绩增长方面的，更重要的是损失率方面的。你能告诉我们目前的最新情况吗？你看到的发展轨迹是怎样的？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. So for the, let me kind of talk about Commercial overall, and I'll get into the TNC part. So -- for our core commercial business, I feel much more positive where we are from a combined ratio perspective, especially with 16 points yet to earn in this year. And then I talked a little bit about some expansion products that we talked about like in Horizon 2. So think of Progressive Fleet, think of TNC, think of our BOP. Those do put a little pressure on our core business, but we think it's important to invest in them. The TNC, we've continued to strengthen reserves, as you saw last year, and we'll have some rate increases that go into play significant ones this quarter. So we feel much better about it. And if you go back we have 20 states total between the two companies that we work with.
是的，让我先谈谈整体商业业务，然后再谈跨国公司业务。对于我们的核心商业业务，从综合比率的角度来看，我觉得我们的情况要乐观得多，尤其是今年还有16个百分点要赚。然后，我谈到了我们在 "地平线2号"（Horizon 2）中提到的一些扩展产品。所以，想想 Progressive Fleet，想想 TNC，想想我们的 BOP。这些产品确实给我们的核心业务带来了一些压力，但我们认为投资这些产品很重要。对于 TNC，我们继续加强储备，正如大家去年所看到的，而且我们将在本季度大幅提高费率。因此，我们感觉好多了。回过头来看，与我们合作的两家公司在美国共有 20 个州。
But if you go back to where, we started with our first state in 2016. That knowledge that we've learned in the TNC business has really helped us. So each state is a little bit different depending on the maturity level of that. And a lot of what happened last year with the reserve strengthening, happened to be in two states, New Jersey and California and in coverages of UM and UIM. So that's where we're working to get the right rate to make sure we can reach our profit margin.
但如果追溯到哪里，我们从 2016 年的第一个州开始。我们在 TNC 业务中学到的知识对我们帮助很大。因此，每个州的情况都有些不同，这取决于其成熟度。去年，在新泽西州和加利福尼亚州这两个州，UM 和 UIM 的承保范围发生了很多储备加强的情况。因此，我们正在努力获得合适的费率，以确保我们能够达到利润率。
保险对于损失很敏感，损失增加了立即提高收费，汽车保险就是这样，这是对现实反应的灵敏性，这种灵敏是行业本身决定的。
Yaron Kinar
亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。下一个问题来自奥本海默公司的迈克尔-菲利普斯。您的电话已接通
Michael Phillips
迈克尔-菲利普斯
Thanks for putting me in. I think I just have, well, maybe two. Just one. To what extent is the hard market in Personal Auto have any impact on the mix of customers that stay bundled. In other words, if there's more, maybe sticker shock in one versus the other? Are you seeing customers kind of get away from the desire to bundle?
谢谢你让我加入我想我只有，嗯，也许两个。只有一个。个人汽车市场的严峻形势在多大程度上影响了保持捆绑销售的客户组合？换句话说，是否存在更多的贴纸冲击？你是否看到客户放弃了捆绑的意愿？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I mean I think right now, customers are looking for price because it's gone up so much with everything else. So people do you like to bundle because you can also get a discount in most companies. The hard market for me I really equate to more just overall shopping. Just people get their renewals and they shop and can have we already got the rate in the system to get them. So we want to get auto, we want to get home and we want to get the bundled regardless of either one. Obviously, we care a lot about the bundle. But it's really, I think customers dictate the market based on the trends they're seeing in their bills.
我认为现在，客户在寻找价格，因为随着其他一切的上涨，价格已经上涨了很多。所以人们喜欢捆绑，因为在大多数公司你还可以享受折扣。对我来说，艰难的市场更多地等同于总体上的购物。人们收到他们的续保通知，他们就会去购物，看看我们是否已经把费率系统化，以便得到他们。所以我们想要汽车保险，我们想要家庭保险，我们想要捆绑销售，无论哪一种。显然，我们非常关心捆绑销售。但这真的是，我认为客户根据他们在账单上看到的趋势来主导市场。
Michael Phillips
迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. And then just separate, can you share any thoughts on loss trends in your Protective business that you did a couple of years ago? How is that looking? And any trends there?
好的。另外，你能谈谈几年前你在保护业务方面的损失趋势吗？情况如何？有什么趋势吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Not really. No.
不是真的。不是
Michael Phillips
迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. Nothing that stands out versus normal the smaller fleets, the smaller normal commercial business?
好吧。与普通的小型车队、较小的普通商业业务相比，没有什么特别之处吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
No. We continue, we'll continue to grow. We've expanded our own fleet before Protective from 10 power units to 40 power units. We continue to expand. We continue to work on the integration of the acquisition, we feel positive about the acquisition. And we have some rate in the system definitely for a Progressive Fleet, but nothing really more than that to share.
不，我们会继续发展。在保护之前，我们已经将自己的车队从 10 台动力装置扩大到 40 台动力装置。我们将继续扩大。我们将继续致力于收购整合工作，我们对此次收购充满信心。我们的系统中肯定有一些关于 Progressive Fleet 的比率，但没有更多的信息可以分享。
Michael Phillips
迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
好的好的 非常感谢 All right.非常感谢 Thank you very much.
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. We have a follow-up question from the line of Meyer Shields with Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。我们有一个来自 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods 的 Meyer Shields 的后续问题。您的电话已接通
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Great, thank you so much for taking the follow-up. I was just wondering whether the PAA commissions factor into either the 96% combined ratio target somehow? Or if there is a profit goal for that business?
很好，非常感谢你的跟进。我想知道，PAA 佣金是否会以某种方式计入 96% 的综合比率目标？或者该业务是否有利润目标？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
The commissions are just that. There's just commissions that come in the door that we've agreed with the companies and then there, of course, rating their auto or their home based on their rating algorithm.
佣金就是佣金。佣金只是我们与公司商定的进门佣金，当然还有根据公司的评级算法对他们的汽车或房屋进行评级。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
They flow as a contract expense on the area in that combined ratio.
在综合比率中，它们作为地区的合同支出。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I'm sorry.
是的，我很抱歉。
Meyer Shields
迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Perfect, thank you.
好的很好，谢谢
Operator操作员
Please standby for our next question. We have a follow-up question from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
请等待下一个问题。我们有一个来自富国银行的伊利斯-格林斯潘的后续问题。您的电话已接通。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thanks. Are you guys considering making any changes to your reinsurance program as it comes up for renewal this year?
谢谢。你们是否考虑在今年续保时对再保险计划做出任何调整？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I think well, you saw what was outlined in the K with the Aggregate Program. And then our CAT Tower Program is up for renewal in June, and we're working on that. Right now, actually, two of the people are in London, talking with our reinsurers, we feel like we'll have some positive results come the June renewal.
我想，你们也看到了 K 计划中关于总量计划的概述。然后，我们的 CAT Tower 计划将于 6 月进行续保，我们正在努力。实际上，现在我们有两个人正在伦敦，与我们的再保险公司洽谈，我们觉得在六月份续保时会有一些积极的结果。
John Sauerland
约翰-绍尔兰
Yes. So we don't have anything definitive to offer Elyse, but you can generally think of us targeting retention in generally the same area. I can't guarantee it will be exactly the same. We have, as we de-risked the property portfolio been enjoying decreasing PMLs. So that helps us at the top of the tower because we might not have to buy as much. But generally speaking, you can think of the focus and the structure of the CAT Program at June 1 is very similar to what we have today.
是的，所以我们没有任何确切的信息可以提供给伊丽丝，但你可以大致认为我们的目标是在大致相同的领域留住人才。我不能保证会完全一样。随着我们降低物业投资组合的风险，PML 不断减少。因此，这对我们在塔顶的业务有帮助，因为我们可能不需要购买那么多物业。但总的来说，6 月 1 日的 CAT 计划的重点和结构与现在非常相似。
Elyse Greenspan
伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Okay, thank you.
好的，谢谢。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. We have a follow-up from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。我们有一个来自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski 的后续问题。您的电话已接通
Michael Zaremski
迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Great. Just a quick follow-up. First, I heard you say, I think it was the first time you've said that you feel the recent Florida legislative reforms are actually a positive. You gave some context around it. But just curious, are the reforms meaningful enough that it might cause you to change your de-risking strategy in the state of Florida, which has been I think more home insurance centric?
太好了。再跟进一下。首先，我听到你说，我想这是你第一次说，你觉得最近佛罗里达州的立法改革实际上是一个积极的方面。你介绍了一些相关背景。但我只是好奇，这些改革的意义是否足以让你们改变在佛罗里达州的去风险策略，因为我认为佛罗里达州一直以来都是以房屋保险为中心的？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
No. I think what allows me to think about is being able to continue to grow there and not have so much litigation that puts pressure on the rest of the book. We still had, when we think about the de-risking of the Florida property book. Half of those were rental properties, coastal properties. Those are things that I feel like we should have de-risked anyway regardless. So I think you would do that anyway, and I wouldn't go back from that. I mean I think the reforms will be good overall just for the structure. And of course, again, I don't want to get out ahead of my skis, I want to kind of see how it pans out. But yes, I think that's what I would say. So we're seeing some small data signs that we believe it's good. Again, I want to give it some time. I want to de-risk the book. And right now, we're open for business really in sported with new construction on homes, and that's it.
不，我认为让我能够考虑的是在那里继续发展，而不是有那么多的诉讼给其他业务带来压力。当我们考虑到佛罗里达州房产的去风险化时，我们仍然有。其中一半是租赁物业和沿海物业。我觉得无论如何，我们都应该去掉这些风险。因此，我认为无论如何你都会这么做，而且我也不会回头。我的意思是，我认为改革对结构而言总体上是好的。当然，我还是那句话，我不想越俎代庖，我想先看看结果如何。不过，我想这就是我要说的。因此，我们看到了一些小的数据迹象，我们相信它是好的。同样，我想给它一些时间。我想降低这本书的风险。现在，我们的业务主要集中在新建住宅方面，仅此而已。
Michael Zaremski
迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Please standby for our next question. We have a follow-up from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. Your line is open.
谢谢。请准备下一个问题。我们有一个来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden 的后续问题。您的电话已接通。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Hi, thanks for taking the follow-up. Just had a question on the 19 points of personal auto rate that you guys got last year. How much of that is still yet to earn in?
您好，感谢您接受我们的采访。我想问一下你们去年获得的 19 个点的个人汽车保险费率。其中有多少还没赚到？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
How much of that Pat, I think...
我想，帕特有多少......
Pat Callahan
帕特-卡拉汉
At this point, I think we've probably got, I don't know, eight to nine points that are still earning in I'd have to look at the table for details, but we got some big rate increases later in the year that we'll still earn in because we've got obviously six months and then 12-month policy renewals.
在这一点上，我想我们可能有 8 到 9 个点仍在盈利，具体情况我得看表格，但我们在今年晚些时候有一些大的费率增长，我们仍将盈利，因为我们显然有 6 个月和 12 个月的保单续保。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Got it. Understood. And then just on the ambient shopping levels, have you guys seen any changes in ambient shopping over the last several months?
明白了明白。关于环境购物水平，你们在过去几个月中看到环境购物有什么变化吗？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. We've seen the increase in ambient shopping. And so we'll watch and see if that continues. And I think when some of our competitors get their rate in the system, like Pat just said, it depends on the competitor because some have six-month policies, many have 12-month policies, which obviously takes a lot more time to earn in. I'm sure we'll see that diminish, but that's when we have all the other levers that we have for our growth.
是的。我们已经看到环境购物的增长。因此，我们会观察这种情况是否会继续下去。我认为，当我们的一些竞争对手将他们的费率纳入系统时，就像帕特刚才说的，这取决于竞争对手，因为有些竞争对手有 6 个月的保单，很多有 12 个月的保单，这显然需要更多的时间来赚取利润。我相信我们会看到这种情况有所减少，但这是在我们拥有所有其他增长杠杆的情况下。
David Motemaden
戴维-莫特马登
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks.谢谢。
Operator操作员
Please stand by for our next question.
请准备下一个问题。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Let's wrap up after this.
说完这些，我们来总结一下。
Operator操作员
Our final question comes from the line of Michael Ward with Citi. Your line is open.
最后一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克尔-沃德。您的电话已接通。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Last but not least. Thanks. I was just wondering the claims specialist in property, is that the increase in that number? Is that part of the customer value prop? Or is it something else?
最后但并非最不重要的。谢谢。我只是想知道，财产险理赔专家的人数是否会增加？这是客户价值的一部分吗？还是其他原因？
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'm not clear on your question.
我不太清楚你的问题。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
The property claims specialist count increased? On the 10-K we noticed.
财产索赔专家人数增加了？在 10-K 报告中，我们注意到
Pat Callahan
帕特-卡拉汉
Is that property claims. Is that.
是财产索赔。是
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
The growth for the head count growth?
人数增长的原因是什么？
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Yes.是的。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. So we are growing our ability to handle our own claims internally historically, especially when we first bought ASI, the majority of the claims that we handled were through independent adjusters. And while we still use a lot of independent adjusters for our appraisals, we wanted to have that talent in-house. So that is the increase. Sorry, I did understand your question to begin with. But yes, that increase is just to us to have that talent and understanding as we grow our property book.
是的，我们正在增强内部处理索赔的能力，从历史上看，尤其是在我们最初收购 ASI 时，我们处理的大部分索赔都是通过独立理算师进行的。虽然我们仍在使用大量独立理算师进行评估，但我们希望在内部拥有这方面的人才。这就是增加的原因。抱歉，我一开始没听懂你的问题。是的，增加的费用只是为了在我们的财产账目增长时，让我们拥有这样的人才和理解力。
Michael Ward
迈克尔-沃德
Awesome. Thank you.
棒极了谢谢。
Tricia Griffith
特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you.
谢谢你。
Operator操作员
Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to Doug.
谢谢。现在请道格发言。
Douglas Constantine
道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
That appears to be our final question. So that concludes our event. And Towando [ph], I'll hand it back over to you for the closing scripts.
这似乎是我们的最后一个问题。我们的活动到此结束。下面请托万多[音]为我们致闭幕词。
Operator操作员
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the Progressive Corporation's fourth quarter investor event. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.
谢谢大家。女士们、先生们，Progressive 公司第四季度投资者活动到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 公司网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关此次活动的重播信息。女士们、先生们，现在可以断线了。祝大家有美好的一天。
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