2024-05-07 The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call May 7, 2024 9:30 AM ET
Company Participants 公司参与者
Douglas Constantine - Director of Investor Relations
Douglas Constantine - 投资者关系总监
Tricia Griffith - President & Chief Executive Officer
特里西娅-格里菲斯 - 总裁兼首席执行官
Pat Callahan - Personal Lines President
Pat Callahan - 个人业务总裁
John Sauerland - Chief Financial Officer
约翰-绍尔兰 - 首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Bob Huang - Morgan Stanley
Bob Huang - 摩根士丹利
Michael Zaremski - BMO
Elyse Greenspan - Wells Fargo
Elyse Greenspan - 富国银行
Gregory Peters - Raymond James
格雷戈里-彼得斯 - 雷蒙德-詹姆斯
Josh Shanker - Bank of America
Josh Shanker - 美国银行
Michael Phillips - Oppenheimer
迈克尔-菲利普斯 - 奥本海默
David Motemaden - Evercore
Jimmy Bhullar - JPMorgan
Jimmy Bhullar - 摩根大通
Meyer Shields - KBW
Mike Ward - Citi
Mike Ward - 花旗银行
Brian Meredith - UBS
Brian Meredith - 瑞银
Yaron Kinar - Jefferies
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today for Progressive's First Quarter Investor Event. I'm Douglas Constantine, Director of Investor Relations, and I will be moderator for today's event.
早上好，感谢各位参加今天的 Progressive 第一季度投资者活动。我是投资者关系总监道格拉斯-康斯坦丁（Douglas Constantine），将主持今天的活动。
The company will not make detailed comments related to its results in addition to those provided in its annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and the letter to shareholders, which have been posted to the company's website.
除已在公司网站上发布的 10-K 表年报、10-Q 表季报和致股东信中提供的内容外，公司将不再就其业绩发表详细评论。
Although our quarterly Investor Relations events often include a presentation on a specific portion of our business, we will instead use the 60 minutes scheduled for today's event for introductory comments by our CEO and a question-and-answer session with members of our leadership team. The introductory comments by our CEO were previously recorded.
尽管我们的季度投资者关系活动通常包括有关我们业务特定部分的介绍，但我们将利用今天活动的 60 分钟时间，由我们的首席执行官发表介绍性评论，并与我们的领导团队成员进行问答。首席执行官的介绍性发言之前已经录制。
Upon completion of the previously recorded remarks, we will use the balance of the 60 minutes scheduled for this event for live questions and answers with members of our leadership team.
之前录制的发言结束后，我们将利用 60 分钟的剩余时间与领导团队成员进行现场问答。
As always, discussions in this event may include forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed during today's event.
一如既往，本次活动的讨论可能包括前瞻性陈述。这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在许多风险和不确定性，可能导致实际事件和结果与今天活动中讨论的内容存在实质性差异。
Additional information concerning those risks and uncertainties is available in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023, as supplemented by our Form 10-Q for the first quarter of 2024 where you will find discussions of the risk factors affecting our businesses, safe harbor statements related to forward-looking statements and other discussions of the challenges we face. These documents can be found via the Investor Relations section of our website at investors.progressive.com.
关于这些风险和不确定性的额外信息，可以在我们2023年12月31日年度报告的10-K表格中找到，该报告由我们2024年第一季度的10-Q表格补充，其中你会找到关于影响我们业务的风险因素的讨论，与前瞻性声明相关的安全港声明，以及对我们面临的挑战的其他讨论。这些文件可以通过我们网站投资者关系部分的investors.progressive.com找到。
To begin today, I'm pleased to introduce our CEO, Tricia Griffith, who will pick us of introductory comments. Tricia?
首先，我很高兴向大家介绍我们的首席执行官特里西娅-格里菲斯，她将为我们做开场白。特里西娅？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. In many ways, this first quarter has felt like we have turned a page. Since mid-2021, inflationary pressure and its subsequent effect on our profit margins has been a predominant factor in our strategic decision making.
早上好，感谢您参加今天的会议。从很多方面来说，第一季度都像是翻开了新的一页。自 2021 年年中以来，通胀压力及其对我们利润率的影响一直是我们战略决策的主要因素。
Even in the second half of 2023, when we started to see indications that severity trends were stabilizing, more rate was earning in and accident year loss ratios approached our target. We continue to flex in order to deliver on our calendar year 96 combined ratio goal.
即使在 2023 年下半年，当我们开始看到严重性趋势趋于稳定的迹象时，仍有更多的费率收入，事故年度损失率接近我们的目标。我们将继续保持灵活性，以实现 96%的综合比率目标。
In our August Investor Relations call, I was asked if we should put aside our 96 target and instead capitalize on the perceived growth opportunity at the time. In my answer, I cited our core values and the belief that our strategy to put profit before growth would prove to be a winning formula.
在八月份的投资者关系电话会议上，有人问我，我们是否应该抛开 96%的目标，转而抓住当时的增长机会。在回答中，我提到了我们的核心价值观，并相信我们 "利润优先于增长 "的战略将成为制胜法宝。
利润是当下，增长是不确定的未来，能想明白这一点的不多。
As we look back to the second half of 2023 and the stellar results of the first quarter 2024, we feel stronger than ever that sticking to the core values that has served us well for so long was absolutely the right call. By adhering to who we are, it looks like we have turned that page and we're now seeing the benefits of the tough decisions and hard work over the last several years since inflation took off.
回顾 2023 年下半年和 2024 年第一季度的辉煌业绩，我们比以往任何时候都更加坚信，坚持长期以来为我们提供良好服务的核心价值观绝对是正确的决定。通过坚持我们的本色，我们似乎翻过了这一页，我们现在看到了自通胀起飞以来，过去几年艰难决策和辛勤工作所带来的好处。
Our first quarter of 2024 has really set the stage for us to capitalize on both growth and profitability. During the quarter, net premiums written grew 18% and we produce the solid combined ratio of 86.1. Our profitability was made possible from rate continuing to earn in from the rate revisions we took in the last quarter, seasonably favorable frequency, mix changes in our book from the non-rate actions we implemented over the last two years, continued improvements in segmentation and less prior year loss reserve development, among other factors.
2024 年第一季度为我们实现增长和盈利奠定了坚实的基础。本季度，净承保保费增长了 18%，综合比率达到 86.1。我们的盈利能力得益于上一季度费率调整带来的持续盈利、季节性的有利频率、过去两年实施的非费率行动带来的保单组合变化、细分市场的持续改善以及较少的上年损失准备金发展等因素。
In Personal Auto, our calendar year margins mean we've been able to shift more focus into growth with incredible results. In the first quarter, we added over 900,000 policies in force, one of the best quarters in our history and second only to the first quarter of 2023. We did this on the back of strong retention on our renewals and new application growth that is ramping up as we increase our media spend and pull back on some of our non-rate actions.
在个人汽车保险领域，我们按日历年计算的利润率意味着我们能够将更多的重点转移到增长上，并取得了令人难以置信的成果。在第一季度，我们新增了超过90万份有效保单，这是我们历史上最好的季度之一，仅次于2023年第一季度。我们之所以能够做到这一点，是因为我们在续保上保持了强大的客户留存率，并且随着我们增加媒体支出并减少一些非费率措施，新申请的增长也在加速。
During the first quarter, media spend was down 7% versus the first quarter 2023, and new auto applications were down 9% compared to a record growth in the first quarter last year. The year-over-year gap in both spend and sales declined as the quarter progressed. When comparing March 2024 to March 2023, ad spend was up and new auto applications were nearly flat. We continue to see opportunity for growth as the market is still very tight. We have non-rate actions we are unwinding and still have a few states where we are working to get rate revisions approved.
与 2023 年第一季度相比，第一季度的媒体支出下降了 7%；与去年第一季度创纪录的增长相比，第一季度的新车申请量下降了 9%。随着时间的推移，支出和销量的同比差距都在缩小。2024 年 3 月与 2023 年 3 月相比，广告支出有所增长，而新的汽车申请量几乎持平。由于市场仍然非常紧张，我们继续看到增长的机会。我们正在解除非费率行动，仍有几个州正在努力争取费率修订获得批准。
As we look forward to the rest of 2024, we will continue to seek to strike the right balance between efficient marketing spend, our calendar year profit targets and maximizing our growth. In Commercial Lines, the first quarter saw better results as compared to 2023. Our core commercial business continues to run well with almost 10 points of rates still to earn in from revisions in 2023 and 2024.
展望 2024 年余下的时间，我们将继续寻求在高效营销支出、日历年利润目标和最大化增长之间取得适当的平衡。在商业险方面，第一季度的业绩好于 2023 年。我们的核心商业业务继续保持良好运行，2023 年和 2024 年的费率修订仍将带来近 10 个百分点的收益。
As a reminder, 90% of our policies in commercial lines are on 12-month terms, so it takes much longer for rates to earn in as compared to personal auto. The trucking insurance market continues to be soft due to macroeconomic factors. And as a result, we are experiencing year-over-year decline in policies in force in our for-hire transportation and specialty business market targets.
需要提醒的是，我们 90% 的商业险保单期限为 12 个月，因此与个人汽车保险相比，费率收益需要更长的时间。受宏观经济因素影响，卡车保险市场持续疲软。因此，我们的出租运输和特殊业务市场目标的有效保单正在逐年下降。
While our other three BMTs are growing year-over-year from both a unit and premium perspective, in property, we continue to execute on our strategy to reduce our exposure to catastrophe prone states, grow in states that have less volatile weather profiles and improve the underwriting and segmentation of our products.
从单位和保费的角度来看，我们的其他三个业务市场部都在逐年增长，而在财产险方面，我们将继续执行我们的战略，减少我们在灾害易发州的风险，在天气波动较小的州发展，并改善我们产品的承保和细分。
Policies in force and volatile states decreased about 5% year-over-year in the first quarter 2024, and grew about 20% in the non-volatile states. We now have five states on our 5.0 product model, which improves the segmentation throughout the product. While results are unpredictable, we shouldn't look too deeply into the results of a single quarter. As the uncertainty of the last several years has shown us, it's difficult to predict where the future is heading.
2024 年第一季度，有效保单和不稳定状态同比下降约 5%，非不稳定状态增长约 20%。我们的 5.0 产品模型现在有五个状态，这改进了整个产品的细分。虽然结果难以预料，但我们不应该过于看重单个季度的结果。过去几年的不确定性已经告诉我们，未来的走向很难预测。
Given what we know now, however, we're encouraged about the future. Inflationary trends are showing indications of stabilizing, and we believe we're well positioned to capitalize on a marketplace that is still reeling from the profit challenges of the last two years. It's comforting to be able to report that we're pivoting to a more normalized operation where, in most states, we can take small bites of the apple when it comes to rate and can focus on growth and increasing our market share. While challenges undoubtedly lay ahead, we're confident in where we stand today and look forward to maximizing our potential in the future.
然而，鉴于我们现在所了解的情况，我们对未来充满信心。通胀趋势正显示出趋于稳定的迹象，我们相信我们已经做好了充分准备，利用好这个仍在从过去两年的利润挑战中挣扎的市场。令人欣慰的是，我们的运营已趋于正常，在大多数州，我们可以在费率方面小幅降低，并专注于增长和扩大市场份额。虽然未来无疑会面临各种挑战，但我们对目前的状况充满信心，并期待着在未来最大限度地发挥我们的潜力。
Thank you again for joining us, and I'll now take your questions.
再次感谢您的参与，现在我开始回答您的问题。
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
This concludes the previously recorded portion of today's event. We now have members of our management team available live to answer questions. Questions can be only submitted over the phone by pressing star 1 on your keypad. In order to get to as many questions as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. We also ask that you use restraint in reentering the queue to ask additional questions. We will now take our first question.
今天活动的录制到此结束。我们现在有管理团队成员现场回答问题。您只能通过电话按键盘上的星号 1 提交问题。为了尽可能多地回答问题，请将您的提问限制在一个问题和一个后续问题之内。我们还要求您在重新排队提问时保持克制。现在开始第一个问题。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
The first question comes from the line of Bob Huang with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Bob Huang。请继续。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
Good morning. First question is regarding retention. On your 10Q, you talked about improved retention both in personal lines and property business. Given that you're unlikely to be the only company that is positioned for growth as we head into 2024, curious to your view on retention going forward in terms of the broader market competitive dynamics. Do you see people potentially coming in challenging your market share position just going forward? And then broadly speaking, just retention in general.
早上好。第一个问题是关于留存率的。在 10Q 报告中，你们谈到个人业务和财产险业务的留存率都有所提高。鉴于你们不可能是唯一一家在 2024 年实现增长的公司，我很想知道，从更广泛的市场竞争态势来看，你们对未来留存率的看法。你认为未来会有人来挑战你的市场份额吗？然后，从广义上讲，只是一般的保留。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. Bob, I think you know our retention is sort of our Holy Grail and we continue to feel good about our trailing 12. Our three months is flat. We're going to focus now, like we said -- like I just said in the opening comments on having more stable rates because that's really what consumers want.
是的，鲍勃，我想你也知道，留存率是我们的 "圣杯"。我们三个月的业绩持平。我们现在的重点，就像我们说过的，就像我刚才在开场白中说的，是拥有更稳定的费率，因为这才是消费者真正想要的。
So, would they go to shop, if the rate is better, then their option is to lead. We've got to make sure we have competitive rates. So, as we think about growth, we don’t just think about new business, we think about renewal business, we think about our service, and growing units of both new and renewals. So, we'll continue to focus on that, focus on having more stable rates and continuing to be ahead of the competition.
因此，如果他们去购物，如果费率更优惠，那么他们的选择就是引导。我们必须确保我们的费率具有竞争力。因此，当我们考虑增长时，我们不仅仅考虑新业务，我们还考虑续保业务，我们考虑我们的服务，以及新业务和续保业务的增长。因此，我们将继续专注于此，专注于拥有更稳定的费率，并继续领先于竞争对手。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
Okay. Thank you. My follow-up is on the -- your distribution channel, and this is a little bit more hypothetical. Your direct channel, obviously have a little bit less of an underwriting margin versus your agency.
好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。我想跟进的是你们的分销渠道，这是一个假设。你们的直销渠道与代理渠道相比，承保利润显然要少一些。
As you continue to push for growth going forward, is it fair to assume that that's going to have somewhat of a headwind challenge to your overall combined ratio given your direct channel continue to be sort of a focus on the growth side?
在你们继续推动增长的过程中，考虑到直销渠道仍然是增长的重点，是否可以认为这将对你们的整体综合比率造成一定程度的逆风挑战？
Should we expect our current underwriting margin to normalize a bit with the combination of focus on growth, your distribution channel mix and things of that nature for the personal line -- personal auto?
在注重增长、分销渠道组合以及个人业务（个人汽车业务）类似性质的因素的共同作用下，我们是否应该预期目前的承保利润率会趋于正常化？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We're going to focus on growth in both channels. But of course, you will see the trend in the expense ratio, specifically on the direct side as we start to increase media. If you look -- if you look at January, it was around 15 points. February was 17.5, March was in the 18 area. That was -- I was putting more and more pressure as the quarter developed on the media spend.
我们将重点关注这两个渠道的增长。当然，随着我们开始增加媒体，你会看到费用率的趋势，特别是在直销方面。如果你看看 -- 如果你看看一月份，大约是 15 个点。二月份是 17.5，三月份是 18。随着本季度的发展，我对媒体支出施加了越来越大的压力。
Now, when we look at expense, we look at non-acquisition expense ratios and then as much as we can spend in media as long as it's efficient. So, when we look at overall combined ratios, we're going to look at, obviously, at the type of business we're bringing on. We have a preference to bring on bundled business and we believe we have the best segmentation model in the industry. So, that's a big part of the understanding rate-to-risk. So, all those flow together.
现在，当我们看支出时，我们看的是非收购支出比率，然后是我们在媒体上的支出，只要它是有效的。因此，当我们考虑整体综合比率时，我们显然会考虑我们正在引入的业务类型。我们倾向于引入捆绑业务，我们相信我们拥有业内最好的细分模式。因此，这是了解费率风险的重要部分。因此，所有这些都是一脉相承的。
But we're excited and really thrilled to be able to continue -- to continue on our growth method because even the last years, with all the headwinds and all the uncertainty, we've still been able to grow, but to be able to grow at these margins is really exciting.
但是，我们很兴奋，也很激动能够继续 -- 继续我们的增长方式，因为即使在过去的几年里，在所有的不利因素和所有的不确定性下，我们仍然能够实现增长，但能够以这样的利润率实现增长，真的令人兴奋。
数字化的能力对时间越久的企业挑战越大，从事保险业务很需要时间的积累，无论是资本还是在经济周期中颠簸的经验。
Bob Huang 鲍勃-黄
Great. Thank you very much.
太好了非常感谢
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行的 Michael Zaremski。请继续
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Hey thanks. Good morning. A question on personal auto, historically, not every year, but historically a disproportionate amount of Progressive's organic growth sales have come in the kind of the January through April timeframe. Given the current dynamics, do you feel that that's the right type of seasonality we should be thinking about? And if not, what factors should we be thinking about?
谢谢早上好。有一个关于个人汽车的问题，从历史上看，不是每年，但从历史上看，Progressive 的有机增长销售额在 1 月到 4 月的时间段内增长得不成比例。从目前的动态来看，你觉得我们应该考虑这种季节性吗？如果不是，我们应该考虑哪些因素？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I think a lot of that comes from tax refunds and other things that happen in a yearly basis. I wouldn't necessarily think about that this year, though, because even last year, we were growing, we are actually trying to kind of stop a little bit because of the pressures on our margin.
是的，我认为其中很大一部分来自退税和其他每年都会发生的事情。不过，今年我不一定会考虑这个问题，因为即使去年我们还在增长，但由于利润率面临压力，我们实际上正试图稍微停止增长。
I feel very bullish about our continued growth on both a premium basis, unit basis, and that's a -- you know there is our preferred measure of growth. So, it's all going to be about our ability to do a couple of things. We want to continue to roll back our nonrate actions, so there's -- we still have more levers there. We have the premium earning in and we believe that we're not going to have to at least at this juncture take the wide swath of premium that we had to get to our target margin and then our media spend to be able to have those margins. We're about 10 points better than our target 96. So we have a lot of levers to pull to be able to really maximize growth. You'll notice I said this in my letter, in my opening statements and several times throughout the 10-Q. And we talked about it as we were riding the management discussion and analysis about is maximize growth the right word versus optimize. And I felt maximize was absolutely the right word to use because that's exactly what we're going to do.
我对我们继续在保费和单位基础上的增长感到非常乐观，这是我们首选的增长衡量标准。所以，这将取决于我们能否做到几件事情。我们希望继续减少非费率措施，所以还有——我们仍然有更多的杠杆可以操作。我们有保费收入，并且我们相信我们不必至少在这个阶段大幅调增保费，以实现我们的目标利润率，然后是我们的媒体支出，以便实现这些利润率。我们比目标96点高出约10个百分点。所以我们有很多杠杆可以拉，以真正最大化增长。你会注意到我在信中、在我的开场白和10-Q文件的整个过程中多次提到这一点。我们讨论了在管理讨论和分析中，是使用“最大化增长”还是“优化”这个词。我觉得“最大化”绝对是正确的词，因为那就是我们要做的一切。
优化只是比之前的方案更好，最大化是计算各种优化方案以后选择最好的方案。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you. My follow-up, I know you've touched on this a bit even today and past letters, but if I just want to confirm. So if you look at the expense ratio, excluding ad expense, in 1Q of this year, it's about 14.1%, which is a little bit lower than full year levels and the -- so maybe 1 quarter might not make a trend. But the LAE ratio in '23, down a little bit versus the previous couple of years levels. Just wanted to confirm whether this is kind of a structural kind of efficiency run rate? Or is there kind of a cyclicality in here that could bounce those figures around? Thanks.
谢谢。我想跟进的是，我知道你在今天和过去的信件中都提到过这个问题，但我只想确认一下。因此，如果你看一下费用率，不包括广告费用，今年第一季度的费用率约为 14.1%，比全年水平略低，因此，也许一个季度并不能代表一种趋势。但 23 年的 LAE 比率与前几年的水平相比略有下降。我只是想确认这是否是一种结构性的效率运行率？还是说这里有一种周期性，会使这些数字出现反弹？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I mean the figures have bounced around, depending on what's happening. Clearly, we're going to want to spend more. And in March, that was on an absolute basis, the highest amount we've ever spent in media. And so we're going to spend more on that as long as it's efficient. I think you want to look at the whole spectrum of what makes up the combined ratio. So we're constantly investing to push down both loss adjustment expense and non-acquisition figuring out ways with technology, with people, with processes to reduce those expenses, because we can give those back in competitive prices, and that's really important. But remember, anywhere between $0.70 to $0.75 of every dot that goes out comes and goes out at LAE at loss. So that segmentation piece is really important, understanding our rate to risk. And I mentioned this in the first question. And I think I don't think I talk about this enough, and you get a little glimpses of it in my letters when I talk about our different product models, be it on the private passenger auto side, commercial lines and now property.
我的意思是，数字一直在跳动，这取决于发生了什么。很明显，我们想要花更多的钱。从绝对值来看，三月份的媒体支出是我们有史以来最高的。因此，只要有效，我们就会加大投入。我认为，你要看的是构成综合比率的所有因素。因此，我们不断投资以降低损失理算费用和非收购费用，想方设法通过技术、人员和流程来降低这些费用，因为我们可以用有竞争力的价格来回报这些费用，这一点非常重要。但请记住，在每一个损失点中，都有 0.70 到 0.75 美元的损失调整费用。因此，细分市场、了解我们的风险率非常重要。我在第一个问题中就提到了这一点。在我的信中，当我谈到我们不同的产品模式时，无论是私家车险、商业险还是现在的财产险，你都能从中窥见一斑。
It is really a special sauce. And it's not something that you build in a year or two. In fact, we've been building this for many decades. But about 10 years ago, we decided we needed to have continuous product model. And so we continue to do those. We started in 2014, really ramped up in 2015 and '16. So think of it as we put a couple of models out there. No state is ever more than a couple of miles behind, and we're constantly improving that segmentation. That takes a lot of investment.
这确实是一种特殊的调味汁。它不是一两年就能建成的。事实上，我们已经开发了几十年。但大约 10 年前，我们决定要有持续的产品模式。因此，我们继续这样做。我们从 2014 年开始，在 2015 年和 16 年真正加速。因此，可以把它看作是我们推出的几个模型。任何一个州都不会落后几英里，而且我们还在不断改进这种细分。这需要大量投资。
So sometimes you can see the expense ratio peak up with that. But those are built in over a decade. And I talked about the product models, but I don't probably give that enough highlight because our R&D groups and our product groups are phenomenal. They're second to none. They never rest. They continue to understand segmentation, rate to risk, and that's a lot of money that goes into the combined ratio. So while expense ratios kind of can come up and down depending on media spend, et cetera. And I don't -- obviously, we're always trying to push them down. A lot of it is the indemnification, understanding, accuracy and having great segmentation models.
因此，有时你会看到费用率随之达到峰值。但这些都是十多年来建立起来的。我还谈到了产品模型，但我可能没有给予足够的重视，因为我们的研发团队和产品团队都非常出色。他们是首屈一指的。他们从不休息。他们不断了解细分市场、费率与风险的关系，这些都是影响综合费率的重要因素。因此，虽然费用率会根据媒体支出等因素上下浮动。显然，我们一直在努力降低费用率。很大一部分原因在于赔偿、理解、准确性以及拥有出色的细分模型。
保险是个计算科学，看着很容易结合AI的技术。
Michael Zaremski 迈克尔-扎雷姆斯基
Thank you. 谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自富国银行的伊丽丝-格林斯潘。请继续
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Hi, thanks. Good morning. In your 10-Q, there was a comment about rate increases having an adverse impact on retention. And then you guys highlighted that the three-month PLE was slowed in the quarter. I'm just trying to reconcile that with your comments, Tricia, right, that rate increases are slowing in terms of both magnitude and frequency. So any color that you could just help us tie that three-month PLE and impact comment about rate increases. To your overall comments just about the level of rate increases slowing?
嗨，谢谢。早上好。在你们的 10-Q报告中，有一条关于费率上调会对留存率产生不利影响的评论。然后你们强调，本季度三个月的 PLE 有所放缓。特里西娅，我只是想将这一点与你们的评论相协调，对吧，费率上调的幅度和频率都在放缓。因此，您是否可以帮助我们将三个月的 PLE 和对加息的影响联系起来。与您关于费率增长放缓的总体评论相联系？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. Sure, Elyse. I think at this juncture in its last year, so many customers are getting their renewal bills and the rate increases that are playing through will cause you to shop. So we're always at risk losing customers when that happens. We knew that was a possibility last year as well when we were first to market, getting the rates that we needed on the street. So while we don't know exactly what the trailing three will continue to be. It's on a lagged basis. We'll obviously inform you on next quarter. That's really why we feel like we're in a much better position to take those small bites and take smaller increases just to stay ahead of trend.
是的，当然，伊丽丝。我认为，在去年的这个节骨眼上，很多客户都收到了他们的续费账单，而费率的上调会让你产生换保单的欲望。因此，一旦出现这种情况，我们将面临失去客户的风险。去年，当我们第一次进入市场，在市场上获得我们需要的费率时，我们就知道这种可能性。因此，虽然我们还不清楚未来三年的发展趋势。这是滞后的。显然，我们会在下个季度通知大家。这就是为什么我们觉得我们有更好的条件，可以小口小口地加价，以保持领先趋势。
Elyse Greenspan 伊丽丝-格林斯潘
Thanks. And then my second question, on last quarter's call, when you guys were asked about advertising, you had pointed to it potentially being more even right through the Q1 and the Q2 and Q3 than normal. It sounds like that's still the plan, given how positive you guys are in growth. But can you just give us a sense of how you expect the advertising spend cadence to be this year compared to historical?
谢谢。我的第二个问题是，在上一季度的电话会议上，当你们被问及广告问题时，你们曾指出，第一季度、第二季度和第三季度的广告投放可能会比平时更加平均。鉴于你们对增长的积极态度，听起来这仍然是你们的计划。但你们能否告诉我们，与以往相比，你们预计今年的广告支出节奏如何？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, I'll start. And Pat, if you want to add Wayne [ph] , you can, if there's anything to add. At this juncture with the margins that we have, we do want to use our spend levels our advantage as long as it's efficient. So like I said, we've got a lot of other levers. We've pulled back on many non-rate actions have room to go on that. And I think if we can spend efficiently in the states where we believe we're adequately priced, we're going to do that to say to the full capacity, but until we feel like it's inefficient to really leverage this opportunity to maximize on growth. Pat, do you want to add anything?
好的，我先来。帕特，如果你想补充韦恩的意见，也可以。在目前的利润率条件下，我们确实希望利用我们的支出水平，只要它是有效的，就是我们的优势。所以，就像我说的，我们还有很多其他的杠杆。我们已经减少了许多非费率行动，但仍有余地。我认为，如果我们能在我们认为定价合理的州有效地支出，我们就会全力以赴，但直到我们觉得这样做效率低下，无法真正利用这个机会最大限度地实现增长。帕特，你还有什么要补充的吗？
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
No, no, I think that's great. Thanks.
不，不，我觉得这样很好。谢谢
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jimmy Hummer with JPMorgan. Please proceed. The next question comes from the line of Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通的吉米-汉默。请继续下一个问题来自雷蒙德-詹姆斯公司的格雷戈里-彼得斯。请继续
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Good morning, everyone. So I’d like the first question on customer relationship management organization that you’ve called out in your letter. It feels at times like it's almost impossible to get timely service in so many areas compared with what we were used to pre-COVID. And so I'm wondering if you could comment on the CRM piece and the challenges you're having with the growth you're reporting and finding people and making sure they're compensated appropriately?
大家早上好。第一个问题是关于您在信中提到的客户关系管理组织。与我们在 COVID 之前的习惯相比，有时感觉在很多领域几乎不可能获得及时的服务。因此，我想知道你是否可以就客户关系管理这一块发表一下意见，以及你在报告增长、寻找员工和确保他们得到适当补偿方面遇到的挑战？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
That's a really great question. And I should have brought that up when I think about the overall -- our goal is to grow as fast as we can, which we've been doing, $19 billion 2.9% comparing quarter-over-quarter and 7% growth. But the caveat always if we can support and serve our customers in the way they deserve to be supported. And that's a big caveat because, there have been times in our history where we've had to slow growth because of that. So a few years ago, we found it really challenging, both from a recruiting and a retention and a compensation perspective in our CRM organization. We made some changes in compensation about 2 years ago. We've invested a lot in work environment and the digital capacity for our customers to be able to serve themselves should they want to. And we are seeing the fruits of those investments through greater tenure and better customer service.
这是一个非常好的问题。当我思考我们的整体目标时，我应该提到我们的目标是尽可能快地增长，这正是我们一直在做的，每个季度环比增长2.9%，达到1900亿美元，年增长率为7%。但总是有一个前提，那就是我们能够以客户应得的方式支持和服务他们。这是一个重要的前提，因为我们历史上有几次不得不因为这一点而放慢增长速度。几年前，我们发现从招聘、保留和薪酬的角度来看，我们的客户关系管理组织面临巨大挑战。大约两年前，我们对薪酬做了一些调整。我们对工作环境和数字能力进行了大量投资，以便客户在需要时能够自助服务。我们正在通过更长的服务年限和更好的客户服务看到这些投资的成果。
Now we are never at rest in terms of customer service. In fact, we're just working on a new customer commitment. And we need to be, frankly, fanatical about customer service because those that could call in, either they don't want to use our digital online services, which we believe are really best-in-class. So we really need some one to talk to and they need someone to answer the phone. Our phone handling times have been really great for both sales and service. I feel -- I mean, the world of difference than two years ago. So I think we've done a great job staffing, training and giving them the tools they need to help our customers in the way they deserve. And that's one of the other reasons why I feel so positive about maximizing on our growth.
现在，我们在客户服务方面从未停歇。事实上，我们正在制定新的客户承诺。坦率地说，我们需要狂热地投入到客户服务中去，因为那些可以打电话进来的人，要么他们不想使用我们的数字在线服务，而我们相信这些服务确实是一流的。因此，我们真的需要有人与我们交谈，他们需要有人接听电话。无论是销售还是服务，我们的电话处理时间都非常长。我感觉 -- 我是说，与两年前相比，天壤之别。因此，我认为我们在人员配备和培训方面做得很好，并为他们提供了所需的工具，使他们能够以应有的方式帮助我们的客户。这也是我对最大限度地实现增长如此积极的原因之一。
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Maybe -- in conjunction with that, my follow-up question would be one of the common areas that we're trying to figure out is how you're investing in technology, the generative AI, the large language models, et cetera. So I don't know what you're going to be willing to share with us on that front, whether what -- how much you're spending this year versus last year? Or how you're deploying these tools to make your company more efficient. But any color on technology and the emerging options that you have available to and how you're deploying in your company would be interesting?
也许--结合这一点，我的后续问题是，我们试图弄清楚的一个共同领域是，你们如何投资于技术、生成式人工智能、大型语言模型等。因此，我不知道你们愿意在这方面与我们分享什么，是你们今年与去年相比花费了多少？或者你们是如何部署这些工具来提高公司效率的？但是，关于技术和新兴选择的任何信息，以及你们如何在公司中部署这些技术和选择，我们都很感兴趣。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, absolutely. So what I would say is we have been investing well, let me step back -- Peter Lewis used to say, we are a technology company that happens to sell insurance. So everything we do has technology built into it. We have, I believe, again, a best-in-class IT organization. With that, we're always trying to stay ahead of the trends. So think of in the direct channel, think of usage-based insurance, all those things, even though they're -- they become actually a part of the product, they start with IT and our ability to have innovative technology. We started with machine learning and large language models probably over a decade ago, and we put a lot of those in place. So think of like we had a Chatbot that can give you documents about having a human involved. And we've continued on those and progressive.com. We've used a lot of machine learning to give you the best choice for what you need for coverage.
是的，当然。所以我想说的是，我们一直在投资，让我退一步说--彼得-刘易斯（Peter Lewis）曾经说过，我们是一家碰巧卖保险的技术公司。因此，我们所做的一切都包含了技术。我相信，我们拥有一流的 IT 组织。因此，我们一直在努力引领潮流。因此，想想直销渠道，想想基于使用的保险，所有这些东西，尽管它们--它们实际上成为了产品的一部分，但它们始于 IT 和我们拥有创新技术的能力。大概十多年前，我们就开始使用机器学习和大型语言模型，并将其中的很多技术应用到位。所以，想想看，我们有一个聊天机器人，它可以为你提供文档，而无需人工参与。我们将继续使用这些技术和 progressive.com。我们使用了大量的机器学习技术，为您提供所需的最佳选择。
从一开始就是个技术公司，科技企业在其他领域大肆扩张，在保险领域大概率也不会例外。
Right now, we have well over 100 different models different formats. Some are tests, some are full, full bore and summer thoughts, including many in generative AI. We did an entire several day session with our Board of Directors a few months ago on all that we're doing in AI. And I got to tell you, exciting. And it's exciting because the efficiencies we're going to get. I can't go into a lot of the details, but we have some great models, great tests that we're doing, and we believe it's going to be a game changer really in every single aspect of our company. So think of recruiting, think of media. And in fact, we have a Board meeting this week, and we're going to go over some AI test in media that have proven to be really successful. We lean into that technology. Clearly, you always want to think about biases and you want to have responsible AI. So we have a committee that overlooks every test that we do to make sure that we're doing it responsibly. But I think we're excited just like we have the last nearly 90 years leaning into technology, I'm using it to benefit really competitive prices, so that our customers come and stay with us and we grow market share.
现在，我们有 100 多种不同格式的模型。有些是测试，有些是完整的、全面的和夏季的想法，包括许多生成式人工智能。几个月前，我们与董事会进行了为期数天的会议，讨论我们在人工智能领域所做的一切。我得告诉你，这很令人兴奋。之所以令人兴奋，是因为我们将提高效率。我不能透露太多细节，但我们有一些很好的模型，我们正在做的测试也很好，我们相信它将改变我们公司的方方面面。所以，想想招聘，想想媒体。事实上，本周我们将召开董事会，届时我们将讨论一些已被证明非常成功的媒体人工智能测试。我们非常重视这项技术。很明显，你总是希望考虑到偏见，你希望人工智能是负责任的。因此，我们有一个委员会，负责监督我们所做的每一项测试，以确保我们是在负责任地进行测试。但我认为，我们很兴奋，就像我们在过去近 90 年里一直精益求精地钻研技术一样，我正在利用它来获得真正有竞争力的价格，这样我们的客户就会和我们在一起，我们的市场份额就会增长。
token最终一定会用来预测人的行为，保险是个很好的领域。
Gregory Peters 格雷戈里-彼得斯
Thanks for the answer.
感谢您的回答。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自美国银行的 Josh Shanker。请继续
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Yeah. Thank you very much for taking my question. Obviously, the subject for the quarterly letter was growth and the company is successfully converting on that. But there are gating factors in terms of capital. And one of the areas where you're growing is in the Robinsons, and it looks like you're picking up more homeowner property exposure than you have in the past. Can you talk about your internal capital model and how much you can grow and the extent to which capital is getting factor? Could you be 10%, 15% larger tomorrow and still have the capital to do that without earning it? Where does that stand at factor?
是的，非常感谢你接受我的提问。显然，季报的主题是增长，公司在这方面成功地实现了转化。但就资本而言，存在一些制约因素。你在增长的一个领域是在罗宾逊（Robinsons）方面，看起来你们比过去承担了更多的房主财产风险。你能谈谈你们的内部资本模型以及你们能够增长多少，以及资本在多大程度上成为制约因素吗？你们明天能否在不通过盈利的情况下增长10%或15%，并且仍然拥有足够的资本来实现这一点？资本因素目前处于什么状况？
这个提问也是巴菲特说的，资本金在哪里？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. I'll start, and John Sauerland, you can weigh in. We are growing in business-- but again we want to grow across the board, so we'll continue that. Our property profile, as we talked about, we are growing in what we would call growth states or more nonvolatile states as far as weather, and we're shrinking in the volatile state. So that's been a plan we put into place quite some time ago. A lot of this takes time.
好的，我先说，约翰-绍尔兰德，你也可以说说。我们的业务在增长，但我们还是希望全面增长，所以我们会继续这样做。正如我们所说的，我们在所谓的 "增长州 "或 "气候不稳定州 "的业务在增长，而在 "不稳定州 "的业务在萎缩。因此，这是我们很久以前就制定好的计划。很多事情都需要时间。
As I laid out last year, we're starting to see the over 100,000 homeowners policies in Florida start to non-renew that took a while because we needed to notify the customers and talk with the DOI. So we believe that our long-term strategy has to be -- to have our portfolio sort of across the country. So when you think about capital, you have to have regulatory capital. So think of auto having a 3:1 model. So you need to -- if you write $1 billion, you have to have $300 million in capital. And then we have contingent capital in case something unforeseen happens, a big storm, financial crisis, and then we have capital even above that for that. And there's even more for home because it's more of a volatile product. I would say right now, we are in an incredibly comfortable capital position, which is another reason why I'm so excited about this growth. Do you want to add anything?
正如我去年所说的那样，我们开始看到佛罗里达州超过 10 万名房主开始不再续保，这需要一段时间，因为我们需要通知客户并与 DOI 沟通。因此，我们认为我们的长期战略必须是--让我们的投资组合遍布全国。因此，当你考虑资本时，你必须有监管资本。因此，考虑到汽车有3:1的模式。所以你需要 -- 如果你承保 10 亿美元，你就必须有 3 亿美元的资本。然后，我们还有应急资本，以防发生意外情况，如大风暴、金融危机等。由于家用产品的不稳定性较大，因此我们的资本甚至更多。我想说，现在我们的资金状况非常宽裕，这也是我对公司发展如此兴奋的另一个原因。您还有什么要补充的吗？
没有谈到向巴菲特学习，通过投资获得资本金的进一步增长，这是生理上缺少的功能，发展慢一点。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
Sure. Yes. We are growing Robinsons more than other segments right now. And that requires our own home products, some of it doesn't. So in the direct channel, we sell a number of other competitors home products. But for our own home product, as Tricia mentioned, we're growing a lot in nonvolatile states, shrinking actually in volatile states. And when we look at our P&L, so our problem maximum losses that's actually come down as a result of our shift. We also recently wrapped up our June 1 reinsurance renewals, and we are very comfortable with risk we're taking there, and actually got slightly more competitive rate. So, we feel great about that push of our risk management program. And as Tricia noted, we have – we‘re generating ample capital right now, we’re growing a lot certainly, added $2.9 billion year-on-year in the first quarter, and of course that requires significantly amount probably around $1 billion regulatory capital. But we are generating that with underwriting margins and to some degree as well year-to-date on investment returns. So we feel very comfortable with our capital level and our ability to grow as fast as we can, again, hitting those margins.
是的，我们目前正在比其他部分更快地发展罗宾逊（Robinsons）。这需要我们自己的家庭产品，有些则不需要。因此，在直销渠道中，我们销售了许多其他竞争对手的家庭产品。但对于我们自己的家庭产品，正如特里西亚（Tricia）所提到的，我们在非易变州的增长很多，实际上在易变州却在缩减。当我们查看我们的损益表时，我们的问题最大损失实际上因为我们的转变而下降了。我们最近也完成了6月1日的再保险续签，我们对那里承担的风险感到非常舒适，实际上也获得了稍微更具竞争力的费率。因此，我们对我们的风险管理计划的推动感到非常满意。正如特里西亚所指出的，我们现在正在产生大量的资本，我们当然在增长，第一季度年同比增长了29亿美元，当然这需要大量的监管资本，可能大约100亿美元。但我们正在通过承保利润率以及在一定程度上通过投资回报来产生这些资本。因此，我们对我们的资本水平和我们能够以多快的速度增长感到非常舒适，再次达到这些利润率。
卖其他公司的产品，单纯的赚取佣金，想办法进一步提高赚钱的效率。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Thank you for all the detail. And one quick question. With the Florida policies that you're non-renewing to the Loggerhead company, is that going to be significant enough that we should expect your attritional loss ratios to be higher at the end of this year, although when the added benefit of lower capacity volatility is added, they'll be lower, but on an attritional basis, will they rise?
谢谢你的详细介绍。还有一个简单的问题。你们不再与罗格黑德公司续签佛罗里达州的保单，这是否会导致我们预计今年年底的自然减员损失率会升高，虽然加上产能波动较小的额外好处后，自然减员损失率会降低，但从自然减员的角度来看，自然减员损失率是否会升高？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I couldn't really answer it. I mean a lot, obviously, the first thing is first, we wanted to get off some units that we believe will not be profitable. And a lot of it, of course, from a loss perspective, depends on weather, which has really been the clincher for the last several years. And so that why we're trying to make sure that we're just more balanced.
我真的无法回答。我的意思是，很明显，第一件事是，首先，我们想放弃一些我们认为不会盈利的单位。当然，从亏损的角度来看，这很大程度上取决于天气，在过去几年里，天气一直是决定性因素。因此，我们正在努力确保我们的业务更加平衡。
We are still very large in Florida, because we have a large auto base, and we believe that we can win in Florida on both the home and auto and especially bundled, but we just need – we were just a little bit too heavy there in addition to a couple of other states, which makes sense because ASI now Progressive Home was based there and kind of grew in that area. But it's hard to think about loss ratios when I don't have the crystal ball of what will happen with weather.
我们在佛罗里达州的业务量仍然很大，因为我们拥有庞大的汽车业务基础，而且我们相信我们能够在佛罗里达州的家庭和汽车业务中获胜，尤其是捆绑业务，但我们只是需要--除了其他几个州外，我们在那里的业务量有点过大，这也是有道理的，因为现在的Progressive家庭保险公司（Progressive Home）的总部就设在那里，并在该地区有所发展。但是，当我不知道天气会发生什么变化时，很难去考虑损失率的问题。
Josh Shanker 乔希-尚克
Thank you very much for all the detail.
非常感谢你提供的所有细节。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Michael Phillips with Oppenheimer. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自奥本海默公司的迈克尔-菲利普斯。请继续
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Thanks. Good morning. Speaking of Florida, you mentioned some favorable frequency trends in the state and your auto book because of the total reforms. Can you share any thoughts on what you've seen on the property side because of that?
谢谢。早上好。说到佛罗里达州，你提到了该州的一些有利的频率趋势，以及由于全面改革，你的汽车保单。您能分享一下您在财产保险方面的看法吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Property side. No, we haven't seen much. Those were mostly on the auto side. There's a little bit on the property if you see…
物业方面。不，我们没有看到太多。主要是汽车方面，物业方面有一点，如果你看到...
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
It's too early to tell on the property side, right? We've got different statute of limitations. We've got different assignment of benefits that will play through the book over time, but not as immediate as we're seeing on the auto book.
现在说财产方面的问题还为时过早，对吗？我们有不同的诉讼时效。随着时间的推移，我们会有不同的利益分配，但不会像我们在汽车方面看到的那样立竿见影。
Michael Phillips 迈克尔-菲利普斯
Okay. Thanks. And then you mentioned the policy life expectation has been improving month-after-month. I guess given all the dynamics in auto, maybe what's behind that? And is that harder for you to get your hands around it predict when shopping at such a high level?
好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。然后你提到保单寿命预期逐月提高。我想，考虑到汽车行业的所有动态，这背后可能有什么原因？当您在如此高的级别上购物时，是否更难以预测？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Well, we know most shopping happens when rates go up. And I think it's a little bit different, I think, depending on the demographic, so if you -- when you read through the 10-Q, Sam's are much more likely to be shop sensitive because they’re price sensitive, and so it's very different.
我们知道，大多数购物都发生在利率上升的时候。我认为，根据不同的人群，情况会有些不同，所以，如果你--当你阅读 10-Q 报告时，山姆会员更有可能对购物敏感，因为他们对价格敏感，所以情况非常不同。
When you peel back the onion, you look at our different demographics as well. But like I said in the last couple of calls, last year, we had seen inflationary factors like that. And so I'm not surprised that there's been a lot more shopping. And that's why the key is to get out ahead of the rate. It's short-term pain for long-term growth, and that's exactly what we did and why we're sitting in this position.
当你剥开洋葱，你也会看到我们不同的人口统计数据。但正如我在前几次电话中所说，去年我们已经看到了类似的通胀因素。因此，我对购物量的增加并不感到惊讶。这就是为什么关键是要抢在费率之前。短期的痛苦换来长期的增长，这正是我们所做的，也是我们现在处于这个位置的原因。
精细化控制的能力，在通胀之前调整费率，而不是等到通胀之后。
So we're going to continue to have -- try to have stable rates. Just stay ahead of the severity trends and go from there. And I think when customers see that and then they are able to also, like I said, have great claims service, have a great service from our CRM. We want to give a reason to stay. And all the products that they can have from Progressive.
因此，我们将继续努力保持稳定的费率。只要保持领先于严重性趋势，并从那里开始。我认为，当客户看到这一点，然后他们也能像我说的那样，享受到优质的理赔服务，享受到我们客户关系管理的优质服务。我们希望给客户一个留下来的理由。他们可以从 Progressive 获得所有产品。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of David Motemaden with Evercore. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 David Motemaden。请继续。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Hi thanks. Tricia, you had mentioned ad spend was up in March, and it was the highest amount we've ever seen or you've ever seen, but the apps were flat. So, it feels like -- I know there's some lag there, but I'm sure that some of the non-rate actions are limiting conversion.
你好，谢谢。特里西娅，你曾提到三月份的广告支出有所增长，这是我们或你所见过的最高数额，但应用程序却持平。所以，感觉上 -- 我知道有些滞后，但我肯定有些非费率行为限制了转化。
Is there any way to size how much of the country still had non-rate actions in place today versus three months ago? And how you're thinking about rolling those back throughout the rest of the year?
与三个月前相比，是否有任何方法可以确定目前全国有多少地区仍在采取非费率行动？你们打算如何在今年余下的时间里收回这些行动？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, David, that's a great question. And one of the other things you have to compare is our extraordinary growth in quarter one of 2023. So, that comparison is really because we were growing a lot. We really didn't want to be as growing as much because we didn't have the margin that we wanted, so that comparison is going to be hard as well. So, that's the first factor.
是的，戴维，这是个好问题。你必须比较的另一件事是，我们在 2023 年第一季度实现了超常规增长。所以，这种比较确实是因为我们的增长幅度很大。我们真的不想增长那么多，因为我们没有我们想要的利润率，所以这种比较也很难。所以，这是第一个因素。
We have pulled back our -- and there's a lot of levers of non-rate action. So, there's still plans, there's proof of garaging, there's a bunch of different -- sort of pre-binding things that we do. So, there are several different ones. Some we've pulled back more quickly and fully. There are some states where we haven't pulled back hardly at all because we don't have the rate that we need yet, but we're working on that pretty diligently.
我们已经收回了我们的 -- 有很多非利率行动的杠杆。因此，我们仍然有计划、有车库证明、有一系列不同的 -- 我们所做的预先约束的事情。因此，有几种不同的措施。有些我们已经更快、更全面地撤出。有些州我们还没有完全撤出，因为我们还没有达到需要的比例，但我们正在努力工作。
From a percentage-wise, I would say we're -- what would you say, Pat 60% or 70%?
从百分比上看，我想说我们 -- 你觉得呢，帕特 60% 还是 70%？
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yes, I would say, as you broke it down, on the bill plan side, we are getting close back to pre-pullback. And on the verification side, it really depends at the state level, right? We still have about 20% of our states where we have media off, which is a good indication that if we have media off, we probably still have significant non-rate actions or verification in place. But we have lots of, I would say, room to run as we unwind those across both channels throughout the remainder of the year.
是的，我想说的是，正如你所分析的，在法案计划方面，我们正在接近回调前的水平。而在核查方面，这确实取决于州一级，对吗？我们仍有约 20% 的州关闭了媒体，这很好地表明，如果我们关闭了媒体，我们可能仍有大量的非费率行动或核查到位。但在今年余下的时间里，我们在两个渠道上都有很大的发展空间。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. And I feel like just, even in the last couple of weeks or during the month of March, I feel like in some of the places where we've needed rate, we're starting to have some much more productive conversations.
是的。我觉得，即使是在过去几周或三月份，我觉得在一些我们需要评价的地方，我们开始进行一些更有成效的对话。
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yes, I would agree. On the regulatory side, there's certainly -- we've had a couple of recent approvals, and we're getting more comfortable with more of our calendar year premium earned in that margins continue to be where we expect them to be on -- in more and more of our states. So, that gives our General Managers and Product Managers greater confidence that they should open up and write more volume because we think we're priced adequately.
是的，我同意。在监管方面，我们最近获得了几项批准，而且我们对更多的日历年保费收入越来越放心，因为利润率继续符合我们的预期，在我们越来越多的州都是如此。因此，这给了我们的总经理和产品经理们更大的信心，他们应该打开局面，承保更多的业务量，因为我们认为我们的定价是充分的。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thanks David. 谢谢你，大卫。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
No, great. That's really helpful. That's encouraging to hear. And then for my follow-up question, it was good to see that Robinsons new apps up almost double-digits in the first quarter. It sounded like conversion also increased on Robinsons in the agency channel. Could you maybe just talk about how you're attracting the Robinsons? And how you're achieving this increased conversion? And whether you're seeing any improvement on the retention of Robinsons as well?
不，太好了。这真的很有帮助。我很高兴听到这个消息。关于我的后续问题，很高兴看到 Robinsons 的新应用程序在第一季度增长了近两位数。听起来 Robinsons 在代理渠道的转化率也有所提高。你能不能谈谈你们是如何吸引 Robinsons 的？你们是如何实现转化率提高的？罗宾逊的留存率是否也有提高？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I think it's different if you're thinking about it from the agency channel versus the direct channel. So on the agency channel, we continue to have our preferred agents, our platinum agents that know we want the bundle and they can be compensated for that. And so that is a big part of the agency channel. On the direct channel, we have our HomeQuote Explorer where we sell Progressive home. And I know they've been working diligently with some really great unaffiliated partners to be able to place that coverage, even if it's not with Progressive home. And we're continuing to work on having a stable group of companies in that mix.
是的，我认为从代理渠道和直销渠道考虑是不同的。因此，在代理渠道上，我们会继续保留我们的首选代理商、白金代理商，他们知道我们需要捆绑销售，他们可以因此获得补偿。因此，这是代理渠道的重要组成部分。在直销渠道，我们有我们的 HomeQuote Explorer，我们在这里销售 Progressive Home。我知道他们一直在努力与一些非常棒的非附属合作伙伴合作，以便能够投保，即使不是与 Progressive home 合作。我们将继续努力，在这一组合中拥有一批稳定的公司。
Last quarter, we went through sort of how we think about evolving with what we write on our paper and not on our paper. And we think that's good for customers to be able to have an outlet when they come in. So that's proven to be something that we're working diligently on and will continue to work on, especially as the market, I think, is more stable. And I think the Robinsons, now they come to us. I remember years ago, John, you might remember, I remember John standing up here at an IR call and saying that we want to be the company that when they call and they say, do you have this, we say, yes, we do. And so we're getting closer and closer to being not just a destination insurer, but a destination company.
上个季度，我们讨论了如何考虑在纸上写什么和不在纸上写什么的问题。我们认为，这对客户来说是件好事，当他们进来时可以有一个出口。因此，事实证明，这是我们正在努力并将继续努力的方向，尤其是当我认为市场更加稳定的时候。我认为，现在罗宾逊一家来找我们了。我记得几年前，约翰，你可能还记得，我记得约翰在一次投资者关系电话会议上站在这里说，我们希望成为这样一家公司：当他们打电话来说，你们有这个吗，我们说，是的，我们有。因此，我们越来越接近于不仅成为一家目的地保险公司，而且成为一家目的地公司。
应有尽有的电商模式。
So when you come and you're a Robinsons, you're going to want auto home, but you're going to possibly want umbrella. You're going to want some other things. And so each added product increases retention. We don't share those, but if you look at our overall retention of the Robinsons versus the other segments, it's much higher.
所以，如果你是罗宾逊人，你会想要汽车之家，但你也可能想要雨伞。你还会想要一些其他的东西。因此，每增加一种产品，都会增加留存率。我们不分享这些，但如果你看一下我们罗宾逊的整体保留率与其他细分市场相比，要高得多。
David Motemaden 戴维-莫特马登
Understood. Thank you. 明白。谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Jimmy Bhullar with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Jimmy Bhullar。请继续提问。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Hi. Good morning. So, first, I had a question just on the expense ratio. Should we assume that given how much premiums have gone up the last few years that your expense ratio should be, especially the non-acquisition or the sort of non-discretionary expenses should be structurally lower for the next several years. And if that is the case, then would you let that fall to the bottom line and assume a lower combined ratio going forward? Or should we assume that you'll use it to be more competitive on pricing and it'll show up in the form of better growth potentially? Or it gets competed away?
嗨，早上好。首先，我有一个关于费用率的问题。我们是否应该假设，鉴于过去几年保费的上涨幅度，你们的费用率，尤其是非收购性或非可控性费用，在未来几年应该结构性地降低。如果是这样的话，你们是否会让这部分费用降到底线，并假定未来的综合费用率会降低？或者，我们应该认为，你们会利用这一点来提高定价竞争力，从而实现更好的潜在增长？还是会被竞争掉？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes, good question, Jimmy. Probably a little bit of both. So I think we'll try to continue to push expenses, and we need to be efficient. We don't necessarily, though, need to be the lowest cost. We want to have low costs because that equates to competitive prices and that equates to growth. And that growth, of course, is a great cycle because that unit growth is important, especially as you've seen in the past years when severity trends go up and down, because those can be less stable than having a unit growth.
是的，问得好，吉米。可能两者都有一点。所以，我认为我们会继续努力压缩开支，我们需要提高效率。但我们并不一定要做到成本最低。我们希望成本低，因为成本低就意味着价格有竞争力，就意味着增长。当然，增长也是一个很好的循环，因为单位增长很重要，尤其是在过去几年中，当严重性趋势时好时坏时，因为单位增长的稳定性会降低。
But, yes, I think we're going to spend where we can to maximize on this growth. We're going to continue to think about expenses and utilize the investments that we make across the board to become more efficient. But a lot of it, too, and the reason we're able to do this is because of the investments we've made over the many years on technology, on people, on processes, on just our overall people and culture to be there. So I would expect that we'll be able to do a little bit of both.
但是，是的，我认为我们会在力所能及的范围内花钱，以最大限度地实现增长。我们将继续考虑开支问题，并利用我们在各方面的投资来提高效率。但是，我们之所以能够做到这一点，很大程度上也是因为我们多年来在技术、人员、流程以及整体人员和文化方面的投资。因此，我希望我们能够做到两者兼顾。
John Sauerland 约翰-绍尔兰
I'd just add that we have continued to make progress on our non-acquisition expense ratio, and we've been doing so over at least the past decade. So, structurally, as you say, as we increase average premium, not only the efficiencies we plow into our business, but the denominator is a tailwind for sure. But we will always price that 96 combined ratio at the company level. So to the extent we get efficiencies, we're going to pay that back into growth and target the same margin over time.
我只想补充一点，我们在非收购费用率方面不断取得进展，至少在过去十年里一直如此。因此，从结构上讲，正如你所说，随着我们提高平均保费，我们不仅在业务上提高了效率，而且分母肯定也是一个顺风因素。但我们始终会在公司层面为 96 的综合比率定价。因此，只要我们提高了效率，我们就会将其回馈到增长中，并随着时间的推移以相同的利润率为目标。
效率=增长，像是可被精准计算的增长。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Okay. And then maybe if you could talk about the competitive environment and just competitor behavior. Overall, it seems like almost every company is still in the process of repricing its book, but I'm assuming that trends vary by state. And there are a few states where several other companies decide you are at adequate margins. So are you seeing price competition pick up in those markets? And are companies being disciplined overall? Or are you even seeing some companies maybe be a little bit too loose in terms of pricing and underwriting in areas where the loss trends have been good and states were early in allowing companies to raise prices?
好的。然后，也许你可以谈谈竞争环境和竞争对手的行为。总体看来，几乎每家公司都在重新定价，但我认为各州的趋势有所不同。有几个州的其他几家公司认为你们的利润率足够高。那么，你是否看到这些市场的价格竞争有所加剧？公司整体上是否有所节制？或者，在损失趋势良好、各州允许公司提价较早的地区，你是否甚至看到一些公司在定价和承保方面有些过于宽松？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
It's hard to say what other companies are doing. I can say that we still feel like it's a hard market and we feel like we got ahead of the curve, as far as pricing. We're seeing that with our growth, and I hope to continue to see that. I think if you follow, which I'm sure you do on the competition, margins look good. And so I think everyone saw what we saw in terms of trends and reacted. Again, it's – you have a certain period of time where if you react more quickly, you have an advantage, and that advantage sort of begets growth and sort of is like I feel like at this juncture, last year, when I talked about it in November about starting to think about pulling back some non-rate actions and doing some things as like we kind of put our toe in the water and everybody else wasn't quite there. We then -- we put our whole foot and we set the edge of the pool, and now we're diving in. So I think we feel really great about our ability to grow.
很难说其他公司在做什么。我可以说，我们仍然觉得这是一个艰难的市场，我们觉得在定价方面我们已经走在了前面。我们在增长中看到了这一点，我希望能继续看到这一点。我认为，如果你关注竞争对手，我相信你也会关注，利润率看起来不错。因此，我认为每个人都看到了我们所看到的趋势，并做出了反应。同样，在一定时期内，如果你的反应更快，你就会有优势，而这种优势就会带来增长，就像我觉得在这个关头，去年 11 月我谈到开始考虑撤回一些非利率行动，并做了一些事情，就像我们把脚趾伸进水里，而其他人还没有完全进去。然后，我们--我们把整只脚都放进了水里，我们设置了水池的边缘，现在我们跳进了水里。因此，我认为我们对自己的发展能力感到非常满意。
大规模数据的精准计算能力已经是保险公司的核心要素。
People will catch up. That's this industry. It's an ebb and flow of soft markets, hard markets, and it's just about getting out ahead of it. And again, I can't stress enough how much segmentation and our ability to match rate to risk matters. And to not ever rust and say, okay, we've got whatever, 8.8, 5.04. We were very creative in our model naming -- but the bottom line is, is constant, and we don't put one in and say, okay, we'll wait for 10 years and see how that works.
人们会迎头赶上。这就是这个行业。软市场和硬市场此消彼长，关键在于如何抢占先机。我再一次强调，细分市场以及我们将费率与风险相匹配的能力是多么重要。不要生硬地说，好吧，我们有什么，8.8，5.04。我们的模型命名非常有创意，但底线是不变的，我们不会把一个模型放进去，然后说，好吧，我们等 10 年，看看效果如何。
And they -- and the interactions with our different variables with each other are so important. So that's a big piece of it as well. So it's about having the right ran the street, of course, that's table stakes. So it's also about having product models where you really understand the ultimate loss costs.
这些变量与不同变量之间的相互作用非常重要。所以这也是其中很大的一部分。当然，这只是表象。因此，还要有产品模型，真正了解最终损失成本。
Jimmy Bhullar 吉米-布拉尔
Okay. Thank you. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。请继续
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Great. Thank you and good morning. When we look at year-over-year policy on growth in personal lines, we saw a pickup in direct, but modest sequential slowdown in agency. And I was hoping you could -- sorry, in March, I was hoping you could translate what actually is going on like why we're seeing that sort of different trends?
太好了。谢谢，早上好。当我们看个人业务的同比增长政策时，我们看到直销业务有所回升，但代理业务连续小幅放缓。我希望你能--对不起，在三月份，我希望你能解释一下实际情况，比如为什么我们会看到这种不同的趋势？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. I think if you -- I think agency in March was more flat. I think you'll see that a little bit -- it will be a little bit more delayed than direct, where we have more access put on the media spend, whereas I think agents -- it's just a different model. Pat, you can add one of that. But if I recall, March started to be a little bit -- the trend started to return a little bit in agency.
是的，我想如果你--我想代理公司在三月份的表现比较平淡。我想你会看到，比起直销，我们在媒体支出上有更多的权限，而代理商 -- 这只是一种不同的模式。帕特，你可以加上一条。但如果我还记得的话，三月份开始，代理公司的趋势开始有所恢复。
Pat Callahan 帕特-卡拉汉
Yes. So we've been slower to open things back up in the agency channel and specifically things like returning rates on comparative raters across the board, which put our rate in a more competitive position and potentially drive more growth. But now that we are leaning into that at this point and as we're more confident in our rate adequacy, we are opening up some of those non-rate actions in the agency channel. We have fewer top-of-funnel levers in the agency channel. It's more mid-funnel. So you will see that delayed effect when media we can fill the top of the funnel on the direct channel much more responsibly and quickly when we decide we're rate adequate.
是的。因此，我们在代理渠道重新开放事物方面进展较慢，特别是像全面比较费率制定器上的回报率这样的事物，这使我们的费率处于更具竞争力的位置，并可能推动更多的增长。但现在我们正在这一点上投入，并且随着我们对费率充足性更有信心，我们正在开放代理渠道中的一些非费率行动。我们在代理渠道中拥有的顶部漏斗杠杆较少。它更多是中漏斗。所以你将看到这种延迟效应，当我们可以在决定费率充足时，更有责任和更快地在直销渠道上填补顶部漏斗。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Perfect. That's very helpful. And to response your comments earlier, would it make sense to have more 6-month policies in commercial lines?
好的好极了很有帮助。为了回应你之前的评论，在商业保险中增加 6 个月的保单是否有意义？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We've talked about that for years. And I think what I would say it's very dependent on the BMT. When you go in to get a quote and ultimately convert, there are some business marketing tiers that are really complex and time-consuming. And you're gathering information, and it's not an easy process. You don't want to do that every 6 months. So with those, you just have to be priced right and have the ability to do things like debits and credits. To get things right more quickly. We have some and we had a lot in the past. And we continue to think about that. I know Karen and your team are thinking about that in some of the BMTs that could be more flexible. That said, I'm super excited, and I'm glad you brought up commercial. I'm super excited to talk about commercial. I feel like we're in a great position, 10 points are in the rest of the calendar year. Again the key was getting out in front of it and especially important because of those 12 months policies, but one of the things that we did many, many years ago and I think I -- it might have been the fist IR call it may be in the first year, so after I took over,
我们已经讨论这个问题很多年了。我想我要说的是，这在很大程度上取决于 BMT。当你去获取报价并最终转换时，有些业务营销层级真的很复杂、很耗时。你需要收集信息，这不是一个简单的过程。你不希望每 6 个月就做一次。因此，对于这些层级，你必须定价合理，并有能力进行借记和贷记等操作。这样才能更快地把事情做好。我们有一些，过去也有很多。我们会继续思考这个问题。我知道凯伦和你的团队正在考虑在一些 BMT 中采用更灵活的方式。话虽如此，我还是非常兴奋，很高兴你提到了商业。我很高兴能谈谈商业问题。我觉得我们现在处于一个很好的位置，在本年度剩下的时间里有 10 个百分点。关键还是要走在前面，尤其重要的是这 12 个月的政策，但我们很多很多年前就做了一件事，我想我--这可能是我接手后第一年的第一次投资者关系会议、
When team and I developed -- just we developed the horizon concept that came from McKenzie, but we developed how we’re going to think about growing the company. And commercial lines is a big part of that. They were already in Horizon 1 with commercial lodging the #1 writer. But in Horizon 2, we wanted to do is really understand adjacent products that we could develop and they really mostly within the Commercial Lines organization.
当我和我的团队开发 -- 我们只是开发了来自麦肯锡的地平线概念，但我们开发了我们将如何考虑公司的发展。商业保险是其中重要的一部分。在地平线 1 中，商业保险已经是第一大承保人。但在地平线 2 中，我们想做的是真正了解我们可以开发的邻近产品，而这些产品主要是在商业险组织内开发的。
So if you think of small fleets, that has tripled business over the last 5 years. You saw that we're now in Florida. We have Bob in 45 states. The new product files I've been talking about on the private passenger auto side or also on the commercial side. And our business model contractor, right now, just recently in the last several weeks, we've seeing new app volume have new all-time highs. And as importantly, the peak rate for Proview, which is the usage-based insurance, I think snapshot for the business auto contractor customers has doubled. So, really excited about the growth and the different levers because of such a variety of types of products in the commercial line organization. And what we'll do is we'll look at those and see, is there an opportunity to have more on six months, what does that mean to your retention? What does that mean to conversion, et cetera. So we'll test some of those things likely in the next year, so but I am excited and even when you think about FHT, we've been talking a lot about macro trends when you go back pre-pandemic and then of course, we were set, we knew that markets really well.
如果您考虑小型车队，在过去5年中业务增长了三倍。您看到我们现在在佛罗里达州。我们在45个州都有业务。我一直在谈论的新产品文件，无论是在私人乘客汽车方面还是在商业方面。我们的商业模式承包商，就在最近几周，我们看到新应用量达到了历史新高。同样重要的是，Proview的峰值费率，这是基于使用的保险，我认为对于商业汽车承包商客户来说，已经翻了一番。因此，对于在商业线组织中拥有如此多样化的产品类型，我对于增长和不同的杠杆感到非常兴奋。我们将检查这些，并看看是否有机会在六个月后增加，这对您的保留意味着什么？这对转化意味着什么，等等。所以我们可能会在明年测试其中一些，但即使您考虑到FHT，我们一直在谈论宏观趋势，当你回到大流行之前，当然，我们已经设定好了，我们知道市场非常好。
We've leverage and capitalized on the fact that the trucking industry floated because people were moving goods across the country, Spot rates were high. And now that we're sort of a little bit back to normal. What we're seeing is when we look at Federal Motor Carrier authorizations, they're off a certain amount, we're actually up higher than that on new business with FHT. So I'm going to -- it's hard to not compare the pandemic and subsequently what happened. But what we're really trying to look at is how does growth compare to 2019? And what I would say with FHT, the for-hire transportation, it looks good.
我们利用了卡车运输业浮动的事实，因为人们在全国各地运输货物，现货价格很高。而现在，我们正一点点恢复正常。我们所看到的是，当我们看到联邦汽车承运商授权时，他们减少了一定的数量，但实际上我们与FHT的新业务增长高于这个数字。因此，我很难不把大流行病和后来发生的事情进行比较。但我们真正要看的是，与2019年相比，增长情况如何？我想说的是，FHT（出租运输）看起来不错。
Meyer Shields 迈耶-希尔兹
Okay. Fantastic. That was very helpful.
好的好极了很有帮助
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Mike Ward with Citi. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自花旗银行的迈克-沃德。请继续。
Mike Ward 迈克-沃德
Thanks. Good morning. I was wondering about telematics. We noticed adoption was down, I think, 20% in agency. I think you said because of the mix of agencies. Just hoping you could help us understand why that is? Is telematics more specific to certain customer segmentations or geographies? And maybe Robinson is just starting as bigger adopters of it.
谢谢。早上好。我想了解一下远程信息处理系统。我们注意到代理公司的采用率有所下降，我想是 20%。我想你说过，这是因为机构的混合。希望你能帮我们了解一下原因。远程信息处理技术是否对某些细分客户或地区更有针对性？也许罗宾逊才刚刚开始采用远程信息处理技术。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. Mike, that was mostly a couple of big national account agencies, and that started happening maybe around mid-2023. So nothing much to read into. We're still really excited. In fact, take rate and agency really has peaked up since pre-pandemic. And so we continue to believe that's a big part of our model. We have 57 billion miles driven. So we have a lot of data, 7 billion trips. We continue to have that be a big part of it. And we're constantly talking to agents about the importance of that to get those great drivers, great discounts.
是的迈克，主要是几家全国性的大客户代理公司，大概在 2023 年中期开始出现这种情况。所以没什么好说的。我们仍然很兴奋事实上，从疫情爆发前开始，接单率和代理商数量就已经达到了顶峰。因此，我们仍然相信这是我们模式的重要组成部分。我们有 570 亿英里的行驶里程。因此，我们拥有大量数据，70 亿次出行。我们会继续将其作为重要组成部分。我们一直在与代理商讨论这一点的重要性，以获得优秀的司机和巨大的折扣。
Mike Ward 迈克-沃德
Okay. And then maybe just on recent loss experience. We've seen accident frequency ticked down high single digits into last two consecutive quarters. Just wondering if you could share your view on maybe what's driving that? Is it mix? And I guess or mild winter? And what are you seeing more recently? Thanks.
好的再谈谈最近的损失情况。在过去的连续两个季度里，我们看到事故频率下降了很高的个位数。不知道您能否谈谈您的看法，是什么原因造成了这种情况？是混合因素吗？我猜还是温和的冬季？你最近看到了什么？谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yes. That's good. Those are two of the variables for sure. So the mild to mild quarter helped our mix of business, or sort of self-imposed underwriting actions. And actually, we've seen a tailwind from House Billing 37. So those would probably be the contributing factors.. What I would look at instead of focusing on the quarter that would be, I would look at the trailing 12 over prior 12 from frequency because those were some factors in this quarter for sure.
是的，这是两个确定的变量。所以，轻微到轻微的季度帮助了我们的业务组合，或者说是自我施加的承保行动。实际上，我们从《房屋法案》37号中看到了顺风。所以这些可能是贡献因素...与其关注这个季度，我会看过去12个月与前12个月的频率比较，因为这些因素在这个季度确实存在。
Mike Ward 迈克-沃德
Okay. Thanks. 好的 谢谢 Okay.谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you 谢谢
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from Brian Meredith of UBS. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自瑞银集团的布莱恩-梅雷迪斯。请继续。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Yeah. Thanks. Just following up on the frequency questions. I'm just curious, do you think changes in all terms and conditions or customers maybe raising deductibles or anything is causing the benefit of frequency right now. I think we've seen that in prior kind of cycles like we're in right now.
谢谢 - Yeah.谢谢我只是想跟进频率问题。我只是很好奇，你是否认为所有条款和条件的变化，或者客户提高免赔额或其他因素，都会导致现在的频率受益。我想我们在之前的周期中也看到过这种情况，就像现在这样。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
It's so hard to discern that. We've been playing around and there could be and maybe Mark brought it up a little bit. There could be a little bit of regional differences, in terms of frequencies, so no fault state versus none. It's hard to really pinpoint that. We're going to continue to work on that. But it really is hard to pinpoint those exact things from frequency.
这很难辨别。我们一直在研究，可能会有，也许马克也提到了一点。就频率而言，可能有一点地区差异，所以无故障状态与无故障状态。这很难真正确定。我们将继续努力。但要从频率上精确定位确实很难。
So really, what I said before, what we're seeing at least in that first quarter is really our self-imposed underwriting restrictions, some mix difference, which makes sense and then some weather and some changes from the Florida House bill. Those are the parts that we can better quantify.
因此，正如我之前所说，至少在第一季度，我们看到的是我们自我施加的承保限制、一些混合差异（这是有道理的）、一些天气因素以及佛罗里达州众议院法案带来的一些变化。这些都是我们可以更好地量化的部分。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Right. So you're not pricing for it basically?
对所以你基本上没有定价？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
We look at it and we price for frequency and severity, but we can't predict frequency. We know we see it.
我们观察它，并对频率和严重程度进行定价，但我们无法预测频率。我们知道我们看到了。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Great. And then my second question, just curious, getting into the smart commercial business, obviously, the homeowners. Can you talk a little bit, do you have or are you thinking about E&S capabilities? And would that be an area into [indiscernible] package business and you have it in the other side?
很好。我的第二个问题是，我很想知道，你们是如何进入智能商业领域的，很明显，是如何进入业主领域的。你们能不能谈一下，你们是否拥有或正在考虑 E&S 功能？这是否会成为[难以辨认]一揽子业务的一个领域，而你们在另一侧也有呢？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I'm really sorry, but you broke out completely there. We didn't understand the question.
我真的很抱歉，但你在那里完全崩溃了。我们没听懂你的问题
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Sorry, can you hear me now?
对不起，你现在能听到我吗？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, perfect. 是啊，太完美了
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Okay, sorry. I was asking more about E&S capabilities in maybe homeowners or commercial or plans to have some of those excess and surplus line capabilities. Just given the regulatory and risk landscape out there?
好的，对不起。我想问的更多的是在房主或商业方面的 E&S 能力，或计划拥有一些超额和盈余能力。只是考虑到监管和风险状况？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah, those are things to think about all the time we have. We actually utilize the E&S capabilities in some venues and commercial already. And we always look at the best way to understand if we can't get the rate we need in the admitted market, and we have an opportunity and an ability to do that should that arise.
是的，这些都是我们需要考虑的问题。实际上，我们已经在一些场馆和商业设施中使用了 E&S 功能。如果我们无法在承认的市场上获得所需的价格，我们总是在寻找最佳途径来了解情况，如果出现这种情况，我们有机会也有能力做到这一点。
Brian Meredith 布莱恩-梅雷迪思
Thank you. 谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Operator 操作员
Thank you. The next question comes from Yaron Kinar with Jefferies. Please proceed.
谢谢。下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar。请继续。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to start with a couple of mix shifts and the potential impact, if we can. And then maybe we start with the Robinsons. Would the greater weighting of Robinsons ultimately also lead to greater exposure in barley injury, where I think severity trends remain a bit higher? And if so, how do you address that or price for that to keep the profit targets in line with where you want them to be?
谢谢。早上好。如果可以的话，我想从几个组合的转变和潜在影响开始。也许我们可以从罗宾逊开始。罗宾逊的权重增加最终是否也会导致大麦损伤的风险增加，我认为大麦损伤的严重性趋势仍然较高？如果是这样，你们如何解决这个问题或为此定价，以保持利润目标与你们希望的一致？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Yeah. We priced like John was saying, every customer, every state or channel to a lifetime 96% knowing that the limit difference is different if you're a preferred, if you're going to have higher limits. So we price for that and are very clear on and reserved for that. And so that's sort of our secret sauce as well.
是的。我们的定价就像约翰说的那样，每个客户、每个州或渠道的终生费率都是 96%，如果你是首选客户，如果你的限额更高，限额差异就会不同。因此，我们对此有明确的定价和保留。这也是我们的秘诀。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Okay. And then if we switch to commercial. So historically, if I look at Progressive, I think the company has been able to avoid a lot of the severity pressures that have been that the industry has seen in commercial auto. And I think a lot of that has to do, obviously, with your underwriting and segmentation, but also because you had a small trucking orientation.
好的我们再来看一下商业保险。从历史上看，如果我看 Progressive，我认为该公司一直能够避免商业汽车行业所面临的严重压力。我认为，这很大程度上与你们的承保和细分有关，但也因为你们以小型卡车运输为导向。
But now that post the Protective acquisition and with the growth in the TNC business, do you see this, I guess, severity trends different in the overall commercial auto book than they had been in the past? And how are you managing those?
但现在，在收购 Protective 之后，随着 TNC 业务的增长，你们是否看到，我猜测，整个商业汽车业务的严重性趋势与过去不同？你们是如何管理这些趋势的？
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
I mean, commercial is very much, I mean all of our businesses state-by-state, but commercial has a few states that are much more volatile, and we have to price for those or like Herant now and actually Pat on the appeal side is a lot of business restrictions until we can get the prices we need and non-rate actions. But I think, like I said, when I was outlining the variety of -- they react very differently and exposure very differently, and we treat them differently in terms of the segmentation perspective. You mentioned TNC. We needed a huge increase with one of our partners there, and we're able to get that. So our comfort level of success in the organizations is very high now. We feel good about that. But yes, the exposure is different. You just have to stay on top of it from a pricing perspective and from a claims perspective.
我的意思是，商业业务非常多，我是说我们所有的业务都是按州划分的，但商业业务有几个州的波动性更大，我们必须为这些业务定价，或者像赫兰特现在这样，实际上帕特在上诉方面是有很多业务限制的，直到我们可以得到我们需要的价格和非价格行动。但我认为，就像我说的，当我在概述各种业务时，它们的反应和风险敞口非常不同，我们从细分的角度对它们区别对待。你提到了 TNC。我们需要大幅增加我们在那里的一个合作伙伴，而我们能够做到这一点。因此，我们对在这些组织中取得成功的满意度现在非常高。我们对此感觉良好。但是，是的，曝光率是不同的。你必须从定价和理赔的角度保持关注。
Yaron Kinar 亚伦-基纳尔
Thank you. 谢谢。
Tricia Griffith 特里西娅-格里菲斯
Thank you. 谢谢。
Douglas Constantine 道格拉斯-康斯坦丁
Those in the queue appear to be those who've already asked questions. So that concludes our event. Those left in the queue can direct your questions directly to me via e-mail or my direct phone line. Tia will hand the call back over to you for closing scripts.
排队的似乎都是已经提问过的人。我们的活动到此结束。还在排队的人可以通过电子邮件或我的直拨电话直接向我提问。蒂亚将把电话交还给您，请您致闭幕词。
Operator 操作员
That concludes the Progressive Corporation's First Quarter Investor Head. Information about a replay of the event will be available on the Investor Relations section of Progressive's website for the next year.
Progressive 公司第一季度投资者会议到此结束。明年，我们将在 Progressive 网站的 "投资者关系 "栏目中提供有关此次活动的重播信息。
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