American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) Q2 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 19, 2024 8:30 AM ET

美国运通公司 (NYSE:AXP) 2024 年第二季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2024 年 7 月 19 日上午 8:30

Company Participants 公司参与者

Kartik Ramachandran - Head of Investor Relations

Kartik Ramachandran - 投资者关系主管

Stephen Squeri - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

斯蒂芬-斯凯利 - 主席兼首席执行官

Christophe Le Caillec - Chief Financial Officer

Christophe Le Caillec - 首席财务官

Conference Call Participants

电话会议与会者

Ryan Nash - Goldman Sachs

Ryan Nash - 高盛集团

Donald Fandetti - Wells Fargo

Donald Fandetti - 富国银行

Sanjay Sakhrani - KBW

Craig Maurer - FT Partners

Richard Shane - JPMorgan 理查德-谢恩 - 摩根大通

Jeffrey Adelson - Morgan Stanley

Jeffrey Adelson - 摩根士丹利

Mark DeVries - Deutsche Bank

马克-德弗里斯 - 德意志银行

Cristopher Kennedy - William Blair

克里斯托弗-肯尼迪 - 威廉-布莱尔

Terry Ma - Barclays Terry Ma - 巴克莱银行

Saul Martinez - HSBC Saul Martinez - 汇丰银行

Moshe Orenbuch - TD Cowen

Mihir Bhatia - Bank of America

Mihir Bhatia - 美国银行

Operator 操作员

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q2 2024 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士们，先生们，感谢你们的到来。欢迎收听美国运通 2024 年第二季度财报电话会议。现在，所有与会者都处于只听不说的状态。稍后，我们将进行问答环节。[请注意，今天的电话会议正在录音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran. Thank you. Please go ahead.

现在，我想把会议交给我们的主持人、投资者关系主管 Kartik Ramachandran 先生。谢谢。请继续。

Kartik Ramachandran 卡尔提克-拉马钱德兰

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

谢谢你，唐娜，感谢大家参加今天的电话会议。在开始之前，我想提醒大家，今天的讨论包含有关公司未来业务和财务业绩的前瞻性陈述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

这些陈述基于管理层当前的预期，存在一定的风险和不确定性。可能导致实际结果与这些陈述存在实质性差异的因素，已包含在今天的演示幻灯片和我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的报告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

今天的讨论还包含非美国通用会计准则的财务指标。可比的美国通用会计准则（GAAP）财务指标包含在本季度的财报材料中，以及我们讨论的前期财报材料中。所有这些信息都发布在我们的网站 ir.americanexpress.com上。

We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.

今天首先由公司董事长兼首席执行官史蒂夫-斯凯里（Steve Squeri）就公司的进展和业绩发表讲话。然后，首席财务官 Christophe Le Caillec 将对我们的财务业绩进行更详细的回顾。之后，我们将与 Steve 和 Christophe 就业绩进行问答。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

下面请史蒂夫发言。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. As you saw in our earnings release issued a short time ago, we reported strong second quarter results and raised our EPS guidance for the full year, based on the continued momentum we're seeing in our core business.

早上好，感谢您参加我们的会议。正如大家在不久前发布的财报中看到的，我们公布了强劲的第二季度业绩，并基于核心业务的持续发展势头，上调了全年的每股收益指导。

Revenue in the quarter reached an all-time high and earnings grew 44% year-over-year or 21% after excluding the gain of $0.66 we realized from the sale of Accertify. The strong performance of our core business year-to-date and our expectations for the balance of the year will enable us to increase our investments in marketing and other strategic areas that drive our growth without using any of the proceeds from the Accertify sale, while still delivering exceptional earnings results.

本季度收入创历史新高，盈利同比增长 44%，扣除出售 Accertify 所带来的 0.66 美元收益后，同比增长 21%。我们的核心业务今年迄今为止的强劲表现以及我们对今年余下时间的预期，将使我们能够在不动用出售 Accertify 所得收益的情况下，增加对市场营销和其他战略领域的投资，从而推动我们的增长，同时仍能实现优异的盈利业绩。

In fact, we now expect to invest around $6 billion in marketing this year, up about $800 million versus last year, all of it funded from the results of our core business. As a result, we are raising our EPS guidance range for the full year to $13.30 to $13.80, up from $12.65 to $13.15 previously, and we continue to expect revenue growth in-line with our 9% to 11% range for the year.

事实上，我们现在预计今年将在营销方面投入约 60 亿美元，比去年增加约 8 亿美元，所有资金都来自核心业务的业绩。因此，我们将全年的每股收益指导区间从之前的 12.65 美元至 13.15 美元上调至 13.30 美元至 13.80 美元，并继续预计全年收入增长将在 9% 至 11% 之间。

As we've seen through the first half of the year, our core business continues to generate strong momentum, even against the backdrop of a slower growth environment. The continued momentum we're generating reflects the earnings power of our business model, which is driven by several interrelated factors, including.

正如我们在今年上半年所看到的那样，即使在增长放缓的背景下，我们的核心业务仍然保持着强劲的发展势头。我们的持续发展势头反映了我们业务模式的盈利能力，而这种盈利能力是由几个相互关联的因素驱动的，其中包括：

First and foremost, the quality of our loyal premium customer-base, plus the increasing scale of our business, a well-controlled expense base, the success of the strategic investments we're making to enhance Amex membership and our talented colleagues around the world.

首先是我们忠实的高端客户群的质量，再加上我们不断扩大的业务规模、良好控制的支出基础、我们为提高运通会员资格而进行的战略投资的成功，以及我们在全球各地才华横溢的同事。

Our continued strong performance starts with our premium customers, who are high spending, long-tenured and have excellent credit profiles. And we continue to attract large numbers of high quality premium customers with our superior products as seen in the consistently strong new account acquisitions and 24 consecutive quarters of double-digit card -- double-digit growth in card fee revenue we've delivered.

我们持续强劲的表现始于我们的优质客户，他们消费高、长期持有并拥有极佳的信用档案。我们继续以我们卓越的产品吸引大量高质量的优质客户，正如我们在新账户获取中一贯强劲的表现，以及我们已经实现的连续24个季度的两位数卡费收入增长所看到的。

Next is scale. Over the past few years, the scale of our business has grown significantly. Compared to year-end 2021, revenues have grown by nearly 50%, card member spending has increased by almost 40%, cards-in-force globally have risen by around 23 million, or about 20% and the number of merchant locations on our network has grown by over 30 million, or nearly 50%. This increased scale drives growth and gives us significant flexibility in running our business for the long-term.

其次是规模。过去几年，我们的业务规模大幅增长。与 2021 年底相比，我们的收入增长了近 50%，持卡会员消费额增长了近 40%，全球有效卡增加了约 2,300 万张，增幅约为 20%，我们网络中的商户数量增加了 3,000 多万个，增幅近 50%。规模的扩大推动了业务的增长，并为我们的长期业务运营提供了极大的灵活性。

At the same time, our operating expenses are growing well below revenues as we drive efficiencies across the business. The combination of our increasing scale in our well-controlled expense base produces significant operating leverage that generates more investment dollars we can inject into our business. Another key factor driving our momentum is the success of the strategic investments we've been making in critical areas like marketing, value propositions, technology, control management capabilities, and talent to sustain our growth.

与此同时，随着我们提高整个业务的效率，我们的运营支出增长远远低于收入。我们的规模不断扩大，而我们的支出基础得到了很好的控制，这两者的结合产生了巨大的运营杠杆作用，为我们的业务带来了更多的投资资金。推动我们发展势头的另一个关键因素是，我们在营销、价值主张、技术、控制管理能力和人才等关键领域的战略投资取得了成功，从而维持了我们的增长。

And to keep the momentum going, we're continuing to invest in enhancing our unique membership model through ongoing product innovations and new capabilities and benefits. For example, as we execute our strategy of regularly refreshing our products, we focused on embedding additional value in our premium cards to make them highly attractive to customers across generations and geographies. This enables us to add large numbers of new premium card members to our customer base, drive greater engagement with existing customers and price for the value we add.

为了保持这一势头，我们将继续投资，通过持续的产品创新和新的功能与权益来强化我们独特的会员制模式。例如，在执行定期更新产品战略的过程中，我们注重在高级会员卡中植入更多价值，使其对不同年龄、不同地域的客户都极具吸引力。这使我们能够为客户群增加大量新的尊享卡会员，提高现有客户的参与度，并为我们增加的价值定价。

We are on track to refresh approximately 40 products globally by the end of the year. As part of that number, we look forward to announcing our refreshed US consumer gold card in the coming weeks, adding to the nearly two-dozen refreshed and updated products we've announced through the first half of the year. We also continue to add new capabilities and benefits through both internal innovation and bolt-on acquisitions.

到今年年底，我们将在全球范围内更新约 40 种产品。作为其中的一部分，我们期待着在未来几周内宣布我们更新的美国消费金卡，这是对我们在今年上半年宣布的近 20 多种更新和升级产品的补充。我们还将继续通过内部创新和并购增加新的功能和优惠。

For example, our Resy dining reservation platform has seen significant growth since its acquisition in 2019 and our planned acquisitions of Tock and Rooam will further expand our dining portfolio, giving our customers access to more great restaurants and increasing the digital offerings we provide to restaurants and merchants in the Food & Beverage industry.

例如，我们的 Resy 餐饮预订平台自 2019 年被收购以来取得了显著增长，而我们计划收购的 Tock 和 Rooam 将进一步扩大我们的餐饮产品组合，让我们的客户能够接触到更多优秀的餐厅，并增加我们为餐饮行业的餐厅和商户提供的数字产品。

Finally, our talented colleagues across the company are the engine that drives our growth. Their creativity, determination and deep commitment to providing the best customer experience every day is what has made American Express what it is today and will continue to make us successful in the future.

最后，全公司才华横溢的同事是推动我们成长的引擎。他们的创造力、决心和每天为客户提供最佳体验的坚定承诺，成就了今天的美国运通，并将继续使我们在未来取得成功。

The combination of all these factors is what drives our premium business at a scale that can deliver superior earnings on a sustainable basis. The power of our unique business model and the ongoing momentum we're seeing in the business, driven by our loyal customers and dedicated colleagues, gives us confidence in our ability to achieve our expectations for the year and our long-term aspiration for the business.

所有这些因素的共同作用，推动我们的优质业务规模不断扩大，从而实现可持续的超额收益。我们独特业务模式的力量，以及在忠实客户和敬业同事的推动下，我们看到的业务持续发展势头，让我们对实现本年度预期目标和业务长期愿景充满信心。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Christophe.

下面请克里斯托弗发言。

Christophe Le Caillec

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here to talk about our second quarter results, which reflect another quarter of strong performance.

谢谢你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。很高兴能在这里谈谈我们的第二季度业绩，这反映了我们又一个季度的强劲表现。

Starting with our summary financials on Slide 2. Second quarter revenues were $16.3 billion and grew 9% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis. Net income was $3 billion in the quarter, generating earnings per share of $4.15.

从幻灯片 2 的财务摘要开始。第二季度收入为 163 亿美元，按外汇调整后计算，同比增长 9%。本季度净收入为 30 亿美元，每股收益为 4.15 美元。

Our second quarter results also reflect the sale of our Accertify business, which closed during the quarter. We recognized an after tax gain on the sale of $479 million, equating to $0.66 of EPS impact. Excluding this gain, EPS grew 21%, reflecting the power of the business to generate strong earnings growth even in a slower growth environment, as Steve noted.

我们第二季度的业绩还反映了 Accertify 业务的出售，该业务在本季度完成。我们确认了 4.79 亿美元的出售税后收益，相当于 0.66 美元的每股收益影响。如果不考虑这一收益，每股收益增长 21%，反映出即使在增长放缓的环境下，该业务仍能带来强劲的收益增长，正如史蒂夫所指出的那样。

On Slide 3, Billed Business grew 6% versus last year on an FX adjusted basis, reflecting stable growth and in-line with the softer spend environment we've seen in the past few quarters. The stability in spend growth was also visible by category where we saw 6% growth in goods and services, 7% growth in travel and entertainment spending.

在幻灯片 3 中，计费业务经外汇调整后比去年增长了 6%，反映了稳定的增长，与我们在过去几个季度看到的较为疲软的消费环境相一致。支出增长的稳定性在不同类别中也有体现，其中商品和服务支出增长 6%，旅游和娱乐支出增长 7%。

We did see some slower growth in certain T&E categories versus the prior quarter, such as in airline and lodging. At the same time, growth in our largest T&E category, restaurants remained strong and goods and services strengthened a bit versus the prior quarter when excluding the impact of leap year.

我们看到某些差旅和娱乐(T&E)类别与上个季度相比增长有所放缓，例如航空公司和住宿。与此同时，在我们最大的差旅和娱乐类别——餐饮方面，增长仍然强劲，并且与上个季度相比，商品和服务的增长在排除闰年影响后有所加强。

Stepping back, while spend growth in certain categories was slightly higher or lower versus the prior quarter, overall spend growth was stable and we continue to see strong growth in the number of transactions from our card members, which grew 9% this quarter. There are a few other key points to take away as we then break down our spending trends across our businesses.

回过头来看，虽然某些类别的消费增长与上一季度相比略有上升或下降，但总体消费增长保持稳定，我们的银行卡会员交易量继续保持强劲增长，本季度增长了 9%。在分析我们各项业务的消费趋势时，还有几个要点值得注意。

Starting with our largest segment on Slide 4. U.S. consumer grew billings at 6% this quarter with balanced growth across both goods and services and T&E. Our premium customer base continues to demonstrate steady growth. We also saw growth across all generations. Millennial and Gen-Z customers grew their spending 13% and continue to drive our highest billed business within this segment.

从幻灯片 4 中最大的分部开始。本季度，美国消费者的账单增长率为 6%，商品和服务以及 T&E 均实现了均衡增长。我们的高端客户群继续保持稳定增长。我们还看到了各代人的增长。千禧一代和 Z 世代客户的消费增长了 13%，继续推动我们在这一细分市场中的最高账单业务。

These younger card members continue to demonstrate strong engagement and we see that they transact over 25% more on average than our older customers. And in some categories like dining, they transact almost twice as much.

这些年轻的持卡会员继续表现出强烈的参与性，我们看到他们的平均交易额比我们的老客户高出 25%。在餐饮等一些类别中，他们的交易额几乎是前者的两倍。

Turning to commercial services on Slide 5. Overall growth came in at 2% this quarter. Spending growth from our US small and medium enterprise customers increased a bit sequentially versus last quarter but remained modest.

请看幻灯片 5 中的商业服务。本季度的整体增长率为 2%。与上一季度相比，美国中小型企业客户的支出增长略有上升，但幅度仍然不大。

Lastly on Slide 6, we see our highest growth again this quarter in international card services, up 13%. We continue to see double-digit growth in spending from international consumers and from international SME and large corporate customers and we are also seeing double-digit growth across all regions.

最后，在幻灯片 6 中，我们看到本季度国际卡服务再次实现了最高增长，增长了 13%。国际消费者、国际中小型企业和大型企业客户的消费继续保持两位数的增长，而且我们在所有地区都看到了两位数的增长。

Stepping back, we continue to see stable spend growth across customer segments, spend categories and our US and international geographies. And while we are not in a high growth spend environment, particularly in the US, our spending volumes are tracking in-line with our expectations and support our revenue expectations for the year.

回过头来看，我们在客户群、消费类别以及美国和国际地区继续看到稳定的消费增长。虽然我们并不处于高增长的消费环境中，尤其是在美国，但我们的消费额符合我们的预期，并支持我们今年的收入预期。

Moving on to loans and card member receivables, on Slide 7, we saw year-over-year growth of 11%, demonstrating strong growth, but continuing to moderate as expected. As we progress through 2024, we expect loan growth in particular to continue to moderate by a few percentage points, but it still grew in double-digits as we exit the year.

接着是贷款和银行卡会员应收账款，在幻灯片 7 中，我们看到同比增长 11%，显示出强劲的增长势头，但正如预期的那样，增速将继续放缓。随着 2024 年的到来，我们预计贷款增长尤其会继续放缓几个百分点，但在本年度结束时仍会保持两位数的增长。

Turning next to credit and provision on Slide 8, through 10, our credit performance remains very strong and is a direct result of our disciplined growth strategy which has been focused on growing our high credit quality premium customer base, including through the younger customers we attract to the franchise.

接下来，请看幻灯片 8 至 10 中的信贷和拨备，我们的信贷表现依然非常强劲，这是我们严谨的增长战略的直接结果，该战略的重点是扩大我们的高信贷质量优质客户群，包括通过我们吸引的年轻客户加入特许经营行列。

This strategy, coupled with our robust risk management practices are an important aspect of our business models. Going forward, we expect our write-off rates to remain generally stable for the remainder of 2024.

这一战略以及我们稳健的风险管理实践是我们业务模式的一个重要方面。展望未来，我们预计在 2024 年剩余时间内，我们的核销率将保持总体稳定。

Turning now to the accounting of this credit performance on Slide 9. The quarter-over-quarter reserve build of $101 million is mostly driven by growth in our loan balances, largely offset by lower delinquencies. This reserve build combined with net write-offs drove $1.3 billion of provision expense in the second quarter.

现在来看幻灯片 9 中信贷业绩的核算。本季度准备金环比增加 1.01 亿美元，主要原因是贷款余额增长，但大部分被较低的拖欠率所抵消。准备金的增加加上净核销，使第二季度的准备金支出达到 13 亿美元。

As you see on Slide 10, we ended the second quarter with $5.6 billion of reserves, representing 2.8% of our loans and card member receivables, a slight decrease compared to Q1. It's worth noting that there is a seasonality component to reserves, although we are also encouraged by the strength of the performance we see in the portfolio.

如幻灯片 10 所示，第二季度结束时，我们的准备金为 56 亿美元，占我们贷款和银行卡会员应收账款的 2.8%，与第一季度相比略有下降。值得注意的是，准备金有季节性因素，但我们也为投资组合的强劲表现感到鼓舞。

Moving next to revenue on Slide 11. Total revenues were up 9% year-over-year, benefiting from the diversification across revenue streams, customer segments and geographies. Looking at the components of our revenue, our largest revenue line, discount revenue grew 5% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 12. This growth is mostly driven by the spending trends we discussed earlier.

接下来是幻灯片 11 中的收入。总收入同比增长 9%，得益于收入流、客户群和地域的多样化。正如幻灯片 12 所示，从我们收入的组成部分来看，我们最大的收入项目--折扣收入在外汇调整后同比增长了 5%。这一增长主要是由我们之前讨论过的消费趋势驱动的。

Net card fee revenues were up 16% year-over-year on an FX adjusted basis. As you can see on Slide 13, we're now generating over $2 billion in quarterly card fee revenue as the differentiated value and experiences we offer on our products continues to resonate with our card members globally. This is an important metric for us because it also reflects the choice that our costs -- that our customers make each year to renew their membership. We're pleased with the growth and expect to exit the year with further momentum.

经外汇调整后，银行卡手续费净收入同比增长 16%。正如您在幻灯片 13 中看到的，由于我们的产品所提供的差异化价值和体验不断引起全球银行卡会员的共鸣，我们现在每季度的银行卡手续费收入超过 20 亿美元。这对我们来说是一个重要的指标，因为它也反映了我们的成本--我们的客户每年续费的选择。我们对这一增长感到高兴，并希望在今年结束时取得更大的发展势头。

In the quarter, we acquired 3.3 million new cards, demonstrating the demand we're seeing for our products and the investment we've made. Acquisition of our premium fee based products continued to account for around 70% of new accounts. And importantly, as we have increased the total number of cards acquired, we have maintained disciplined underwriting standards.

在本季度，我们获得了 330 万张新卡，这表明我们看到了对我们产品的需求以及我们所做的投资。在新账户中，我们的高端收费产品仍占 70% 左右。重要的是，随着我们收购银行卡总数的增加，我们一直保持着严格的承保标准。

Moving on to Slide 14, net interest income was up 20% year-over-year. This growth is driven by the increase in our revolving loan balances, which also contributes to the continued net yield expansion versus the prior year. As we've shared before, we continue to expect this growth to further moderate as we progress through the year.

接着看幻灯片 14，净利息收入同比增长 20%。这一增长得益于循环贷款余额的增加，这也是净收益率较上年持续增长的原因之一。正如我们之前所分享的，我们继续预期随着今年的进展，这一增长将进一步放缓。

To sum up, revenues on Slide 15, the power of our diversified model continues to drive strong revenue momentum even in a slower growth environment, as our results in this quarter were fueled by growth in all our major revenue lines across each of our different business segments and across geographies.

总之，从幻灯片 15 中的收入情况来看，即使在增长放缓的环境中，我们多元化模式的力量仍在继续推动强劲的收入势头，本季度的业绩得益于我们各个业务部门和各个地区所有主要收入项目的增长。

Moving to expenses on Slide 16, starting at the top of the page, variable customer engagement expenses came in at 42% of the total revenues for the second quarters. Looking forward, I expect variable customer engagement expenses as a ratio of revenues to be in-line with this level for the balance of the year.

在幻灯片 16 的支出部分，从页面顶部开始，可变客户参与支出占第二季度总收入的 42%。展望未来，我预计可变客户参与支出占收入的比例在今年剩余时间内将与这一水平保持一致。

On the marketing line, we continue to invest at an elevated level at $1.5 billion in the second quarter. Given the strong performance in the core business, we now anticipate our full year marketing spend to be around $6 billion or 15% higher versus last year as we plan to invest at high levels to sustain our growth momentum.

在市场营销方面，我们在第二季度的投资继续保持在 15 亿美元的较高水平。鉴于核心业务的强劲表现，我们现在预计全年营销支出将达到 60 亿美元左右，比去年增加 15%，因为我们计划进行高水平投资，以保持增长势头。

To put this in perspective, this is an incremental $800 million above what we spent in 2023. At the same time, we intend to deploy those investments in a disciplined way. As I discussed at Investor Day, our investment optimization engine is engineered to make profitability based decisions at the margin and there is a high bar for returns on these substantial incremental investments.

从这个角度来看，这比我们 2023 年的支出增加了 8 亿美元。与此同时，我们打算以严谨的方式部署这些投资。正如我在 "投资者日 "上所讨论的，我们的投资优化设计是为了在边际上做出基于盈利能力的决策，这些大幅增量投资的回报标准很高。

Moving to the bottom of Slide 16, brings us to operating expenses. Operating expenses were $3 billion in the second quarter, down 13% versus last year due to the $531 pre-tax gain we recognized from the sale of our Accertify business.

请看幻灯片 16 底部的运营支出。由于出售 Accertify 业务获得了 531 美元的税前收益，第二季度的运营支出为 30 亿美元，与去年同期相比下降了 13%。

Excluding the gain, operating expenses were up 3% in the quarter, well below the pace of revenue growth even as we continue to invest in technology and our control management capabilities. Excluding the impact of the Accertify gain, we continue to expect operating expenses for the year to be fairly flat to 2023.

如果不考虑这一收益，本季度的运营支出增长了 3%，远低于收入的增长速度，即使我们继续投资于技术和控制管理能力。如果不考虑 Accertify 收益的影响，我们仍然预计本年度的运营支出将与 2023 年持平。

This quarter's results demonstrate how the scale of the business and strong expense discipline enable us to generate significant efficiencies and those efficiencies are enabling us to invest at elevated levels while still generating significant levers to drive strong earnings growth.

本季度的业绩表明，业务规模和严格的支出纪律使我们能够产生显著的效率，而这些效率使我们能够在提高投资水平的同时，仍能产生推动强劲盈利增长的重要杠杆。

Turning next to capital on Slide 17. Our CET1 ratio was 10.8% at the end of the second quarter within our target range of 10% to 11%. We also returned $2.3 billion of capital to our shareholders, including $1.8 billion of share repurchase. This is the highest level in over two years. And the recent CCAR results further demonstrate the strength of our portfolio and the resilience of our business model.

接下来看幻灯片 17 中的资本。截至第二季度末，我们的 CET1 比率为 10.8%，在 10% 到 11% 的目标范围内。我们还向股东返还了 23 亿美元的资本，其中包括 18 亿美元的股票回购。这是两年多来的最高水平。最近的 CCAR 结果进一步证明了我们投资组合的实力和业务模式的弹性。

The stress test results show that under a severely adverse scenario, our portfolio remains profitable. In fact, we are the most profitable financial institution as a percentage of asset growth across all the banks subject to CCAR and have the lowest credit card loss rate under stress as well.

压力测试结果表明，在严重不利的情况下，我们的投资组合仍然保持盈利。事实上，按资产增长百分比计算，我们是所有接受 CCAR 测试的银行中盈利能力最强的金融机构，而且在压力测试中，我们的信用卡损失率也是最低的。

These results in our stress capital buffer remaining at 2.5%, the lowest prescribed level. We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth. We do not expect any material near term changes to our capital management approach.

这使得我们的压力缓冲资本保持在 2.5%，即规定的最低水平。我们计划在支持资产负债表增长的同时，继续将我们产生的超额资本返还给股东。我们预计近期不会对我们的资本管理方法做出任何重大改变。

This brings me to our 2024 guidance on Slide 18. Let me step back and make a few observations about the growth in the business and the way we see the balance of the year unfolding. First, we have a core business that is comfortably generating mid-teens EPS growth, even in a slower growth environment and before the gain from the Accertify sale.

这让我想到了我们在第18页的2024年指导。让我退一步，对业务增长和我们对今年剩余时间的看法做一些观察。首先，我们有一个核心业务，在增长较慢的环境中，甚至在出售Accertify的收益之前，都能轻松实现中双位数的每股收益增长。

Second, the pace of earnings generation in the core business, combined with the strong demand we are seeing in the market for our products, is enabling us to invest around 15% more in marketing compared to last year. As a result, we are able to fund significantly more investments from our core business than our expectation at the start of the year without relying on the one-off gain from Accertify.

其次，核心业务的盈利速度，加上市场对我们产品的强劲需求，使我们在营销方面的投资比去年增加了约 15%。因此，与年初的预期相比，我们能够从核心业务中获得更多的投资资金，而无需依赖 Accertify 的一次性收益。

With that, as Steve mentioned, we are raising our guidance for EPS for the year to a range of $13.30 to $13.80, and within that range, we now expect to drop all $0.66 of the Accertify gain to the bottom line. This is a departure from our usual practice of reinvesting a significant portion of one-off gains in growth initiatives.

因此，正如史蒂夫所提到的，我们将今年的每股收益指导值上调至 13.30 美元至 13.80 美元之间，在此范围内，我们现在预计将 Accertify 带来的 0.66 美元收益全部归入底线。这有别于我们一贯的做法，即把很大一部分一次性收益重新投入到增长计划中。

But we are confident in the ability of our business to support the year-over-year growth of around $800 million in marketing while delivering mid-teens EPS growth. Finally, we still expect to deliver revenue growth in the year in-line with our initial 9% to 11% range.

但我们相信，我们的业务有能力支持 8 亿美元左右的市场营销同比增长，同时实现中等水平的每股收益增长。最后，我们仍然希望今年的收入增长能达到我们最初设定的 9% 到 11% 的范围。

With that, I turn the call back over to Kartik to open up the call for your questions.

现在，我把电话交还给 Kartik，请他回答大家的问题。

Kartik Ramachandran 卡尔提克-拉马钱德兰

Thank you, Christophe. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to one question. Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator?

谢谢你，克里斯托夫。在开放问答环节之前，我请排队的各位只提一个问题。谢谢您的合作。接下来，接线员将开始提问。接线员？

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator 操作员

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

[第一个问题来自高盛的瑞安-纳什。请说

Ryan Nash 莱恩-纳什

Hey, good morning, Steve. Good morning, Christophe.

早上好 史蒂夫早上好 克里斯托夫

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Good morning. 早上好。

Christophe Le Caillec

Good morning. 早上好。

Ryan Nash 莱恩-纳什

Steve, can you maybe expand on what you're seeing in the U.S. consumer and SMEs? In U.S. consumer, we saw a little bit of a slowdown from 8% to 6%. Are you seeing a broader slowdown in the consumer? Maybe just talk about what you're seeing on a same-store sales basis? And then on the SME side, you obviously saw a slight uptick. So maybe if you could just expand on those both. Thank you.

史蒂夫，你能谈谈你在美国消费者和中小企业中看到的情况吗？在美国消费者方面，我们看到了从 8% 到 6% 的小幅放缓。你们是否看到了更广泛的消费放缓？或许可以谈谈你们看到的同店销售情况？在中小企业方面，你们显然看到了轻微的增长。所以，也许你可以谈谈这两方面的情况。谢谢。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. So I think look, in U.S. consumer, you saw a little bit of a sequential decline. But also remember, last quarter, we had the extra day. So it's not really apples-to-apples. But listen, the U.S. consumer was 6% up for the quarter. It continued to be strongly influenced by Millennial and Gen-Z growth. It's now up to 33% of our total billings and they're up 13%. And so we feel good where the U.S. consumer is. Obviously, organic spending, we'd like to see a little bit higher, but it is a slower growth economic environment.

好的，让我们来看一下。在美国消费者方面，你看到连续性有所下降。但也要记住，上个季度我们有额外的一天。所以这并不是真正的同比。但听着，美国消费者在这个季度增长了6%。它继续受到千禧一代和Z世代增长的强烈影响。现在它占我们总账单的33%，增长了13%。所以我们对美国消费者的情况感到满意。显然，有机消费，我们希望看到稍微高一点，但这是一个增长较慢的经济环境。

But one thing I will point out before touching on SME. When our consumer, a lot of their spending is discretionary. And for our consumer, if they decide they're going to pull back, they'll pull back a little bit on a discretionary, but they'll continue to pay their bills, which is why our credit numbers continue to be so strong and we continue to widen the gap between us and our competitors.

但在谈及中小企业之前，我想指出一点。对于我们的消费者来说，他们的很多支出都是可自由支配的。对于我们的消费者来说，如果他们决定缩减开支，他们会在自由支配方面缩减一些开支，但他们会继续支付账单，这就是为什么我们的信贷数字依然如此强劲，而且我们与竞争对手之间的差距还在继续拉大。

So we feel that, look, the U.S. consumer has been pretty consistent and we think it's going to be pretty consistent throughout the year. From a small business perspective, while there still is an organic decline year-over-year, that organic decline is less than it was last quarter and the quarter before that.

因此，我们认为，美国的消费者一直都很稳定，而且我们认为全年都会如此。从小型企业的角度来看，虽然同比仍有下降，但降幅小于上一季度和前一季度。

So, we're seeing slight improvement. In both the U.S. consumer and in small business, retention is still strong and acquisition is still strong. And so, what I like about where we're sitting is, as the economy rebounds, whenever that may be, organic will pick-up driving future growth. And then just a last comment on international, you didn't ask about it, because probably it is so strong, it's up 13% in the quarter and even small business and commercial within international is up 14%. So we feel good about where we are right now.

好的，我们看到了微小的改善。在美国消费者和小型企业方面，留存率仍然很高，新客户获取也很强劲。所以，我喜欢我们现在的位置，随着经济的反弹，无论何时，有机增长将会加速，推动未来的增长。最后关于国际方面的评论，你没有问到它，因为可能它太强了，本季度增长了13%，即使是国际的小型企业也增长了14%。所以我们对我们现在的位置感到满意。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自富国银行的 Don Fandetti。请说。

Donald Fandetti 唐纳德-范德蒂

Yeah. Can you talk a little bit, I know you're reiterating your revenue guide for '24 of 9% to 11%, but just given results, do you think you're sort of more leaning towards the mid-to-lower end? And then can you talk about where you're investing in marketing in terms of U.S. consumer, commercial and international?

是的。我知道你们重申了 24 年 9% 到 11% 的收入指导，但就结果而言，你们是否更倾向于中低端？然后，你能谈谈你在美国消费者、商业和国际方面的营销投资吗？

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. So I think, look, quarter-to-date, we're at about 10% both reported and FX. And for the quarter, we were at 8% and 9%. And so I think we're going to wind-up within that range. And I think depending upon how organic either rebounds or stays where it is, we'll determine where we wind-up within that range, but we're very comfortable with sort of the 9% to 11%.

是的。因此，我认为，听着，本季度至今，我们的报告和外汇收入都在 10%左右。本季度，我们的增长率为 8%和 9%。因此，我认为我们会在这个范围内完成任务。我认为，根据有机业务的反弹或保持现状，我们将决定在这一范围内的增长，但我们对 9% 至 11% 的增长率感到非常满意。

As far as investment, what we do is, we will look at the myriad of opportunities that we have to acquire more card holders and depending upon at any given point in time because our acquisition engine is a very dynamic engine and things change all the time. We will allocate those investments either U.S. consumer small business or international. Traditionally, the U.S. consumer business would get more of that investment, followed either by international and small business.

就投资而言，我们的操作方式是，我们会审视我们拥有的众多机会来获取更多的持卡人，并且在任何给定的时刻，因为我们的获取引擎是一个非常动态的引擎，事情总是在变化。我们将根据情况将这些投资分配给美国消费者、小型企业或国际市场。传统上，美国消费者业务会获得更多的投资，其次是国际市场和小型企业。

But as I sit here today, it's hard to say exactly what percentages will be, but it will be focused on acquiring more cardholders. And the key about that is that when we acquire cardholders in the second half of the year, it's really not going to drive spending for us this year. It will -- what we're doing here is we're investing for the medium and the longer term and it will acquire cardholders that will spend for us, for us next year.

但我今天坐在这里，很难说具体的百分比会是多少，但我们会把重点放在争取更多的持卡人上。关键在于，当我们在下半年获得持卡人时，这并不会推动我们今年的支出。我们在这里所做的，是进行中期和长期投资，这样获得的持卡人将在明年为我们消费。

So I think the takeaway from the point that Christoph made and the point that I made is the business is so -- we feel the business is strong right now that we're able to invest more and we have line of sight into those opportunities without compromising on credit.

因此，我认为克里斯托夫和我所提出的观点给我们的启示是，我们的业务现在非常强劲，我们有能力在不影响信贷的情况下进行更多投资，并能看到这些机会。

Christophe Le Caillec

The only thing I will add to that, Don, is that the revenue growth was exactly as we were expecting it to be. And as we talked about it under Q1 call, we talked about stable billings, which is exactly what we got. We talked about card fee remaining in terms of growth where it was in Q1 before picking up a bit of momentum in the balance of the year. We still think that is the right way to think about card fees. And we talked about NII growth rate moderating a little bit. So that revenue growth is where we thought it would be.

唐，我唯一要补充的是，收入增长与我们的预期完全一致。在第一季度的电话会议上，我们谈到了稳定的账单，这正是我们所得到的。我们谈到卡费的增长将保持在第一季度的水平，然后在今年余下的时间里势头会有所回升。我们仍然认为这是考虑卡费的正确方式。我们还谈到了 NII 增长率略有放缓。因此，收入增长符合我们的预期。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。请说。

Sanjay Sakhrani

Thanks. Good morning. Steve, I think I heard you say a gold cart refresh will probably be announced shortly. I guess, just can we contextualize what that means? I assume it probably helps card fees next year. And then just the spend trends intra-quarter, were those pretty stable? It sounds like they were, but just clarifying.

谢谢。早上好。Steve，我想我听到你说金卡更新可能很快就会宣布。我猜，我们能否解释一下这意味着什么？我假设这可能有助于明年的卡费收入。然后是本季度内的消费趋势，它们是否相当稳定？听起来是这样，但只是确认一下。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. So, not going to get into the details of the card. But what I would say is, one of the big advantages of the refreshes is it makes the marketing dollars work a lot harder, right? So what happens is, when you do a product refresh, whether it's Gold, whether it's Delta, whether it's Hilton or whether it's another Gold or Platinum card that we do internationally, what happens is you're able to provide more value to those cardholders that already have the product.

是啊所以，我就不细说这张卡的细节了。但我想说的是，刷新的一大优势是，它让营销费用变得更加有效，对吗？因此，当你刷新产品时，无论是金卡、达美卡、希尔顿卡，还是我们在国际上推出的其他金卡或白金卡，都能为已经拥有该产品的持卡人提供更多价值。

You may be able to upgrade a Green to a Gold. And obviously, you're able to acquire even new cardholders with that. And what happens is as you go out and acquire new cardholders, you'll have buzz around the fact that we have a new card and it has obviously a different value proposition and you'll have the marketing that goes with it. And so, when you do a refresh and you have your marketing spend, that your marketing dollars work a little bit. The overall value proposition is a lot stronger and it works a little bit harder for you.

您可能有机会将绿卡升级为金卡。显然，您甚至能够通过此方式获得新的持卡人。当您出去吸引新的持卡人时，您会围绕我们有一张新卡的事实制造话题，这张新卡显然有不同的价值主张，并且会有相应的市场营销活动。因此，当您进行更新并且有您的市场推广支出时，您的营销资金会更有效率。整体的价值主张更加强大，它也会为您更努力地工作。

Christophe Le Caillec

And when it comes to their intra-quarter billings, we typically don't talk about those and there's nothing much to say here. So there's nothing noticeable in terms of monthly billing growth.

至于他们的季度内账单，我们通常不谈论，也没什么好说的。因此，在每月账单增长方面没有什么值得注意的。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Craig Maurer of FT Partners. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自 FT Partners 的 Craig Maurer。请说。

Craig Maurer 克雷格-毛雷尔

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to ask about the marketing spend and it seems like you're putting the pedal down. So typically, when American Express does this, it's because -- or at least in the past, you've seen this happen because Amex is either anticipating or already seeing a slowdown from competitors in terms of their market activity and you see a significant opportunity to gain share. Is that -- is any of that thought process going into this year? And second, business development costs were lower than what was being forecast. So I'm curious if that's due to some slower partner growth that might have meant less incentives or what went into that? Thanks.

早上好。感谢您接受提问。我想问一下营销支出的问题，似乎你们正在放缓脚步。通常，美国运通这样做，是因为 -- 或者至少在过去，你看到过这种情况，因为运通预计或已经看到竞争对手的市场活动放缓，而你看到了获得份额的重要机会。今年是否有这种想法？其次，业务发展成本低于预期。我很好奇，这是否是由于合作伙伴增长放缓，可能意味着激励措施减少，还是什么原因造成的？谢谢。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. So a couple of points, I think $6 billion for the year in total marketing is not an area we've ever -- it's not an area we've ever been in before and an $800 million year-over-year increase is a pretty significant increase. I think that when we make a decision, Craig, to put more marketing dollars in, it's because we see the opportunity. And if you look at where we have been from a marketing spend for the first two quarters, that would show a trajectory of $6 billion. So we're really keeping all of our marketing spending consistent quarter-to-quarter because we do see the opportunity. And we see the opportunity within the credit box and within the dimensions of who we're looking for, for our cardholders. It's not due to a -- we're not making this investment because of a slowdown in billings. This was something that we had planned to do at the beginning of the year where billings were, where they weren't going to be. And as far as competitors pulling back, I don't see competitors pulling back at all. I think competitors right now -- the environment is just as competitive as it's ever been. Obviously, you make these investments because obviously you want to gain -- you want to gain more traction with your cardholders and you want to gain more share.

是的。有两点，我认为全年 60 亿美元的营销总额不是我们以前从未涉足过的领域，而 8 亿美元的同比增长也是相当可观的。克雷格，我认为，当我们决定投入更多营销资金时，是因为我们看到了机会。如果你看看我们前两个季度的营销支出，就会发现我们的轨迹是 60 亿美元。因此，我们每个季度的营销支出都保持一致，因为我们确实看到了机会。我们看到了信贷领域的机会，也看到了我们为持卡人寻找的机会。我们并不是因为账单增长放缓才进行这项投资的。这是我们年初就计划好要做的事情，当时的账单情况是这样，现在也不会是这样。至于竞争对手的撤出，我认为竞争对手根本没有撤出。我认为现在的竞争环境与以往一样激烈。很明显，你进行这些投资是因为你想获得 -- 你想获得持卡人更多的青睐，你想获得更多的份额。

Christophe Le Caillec

Craig, let me add a few things and I will also answer your question about business development expenses. So the other element here to factor into the decision to invest more is the visibility we have in the balance of your performance. The business is generating a lot of earnings. We have more visibility in terms of the credit performance in the balance of the year in terms of the OpEx as well and that gives us confidence in our ability to actually deploy more marketing dollars. And to get to your question about business developments, it's expenses, there's nothing here significant. There was in the quarter some efficiencies, I will use that word in terms of the commercial spend and the incentives that we have with some card members and partners here and it gave us a bit of efficiency, but there was nothing related specifically to co-brand partners or anything of that nature.

克雷格，让我补充几点，我也会回答你关于业务发展费用的问题。因此，决定增加投资的另一个因素是我们对公司业绩平衡的了解。我们的业务正在产生大量收益。就运营支出而言，我们对今年全年的信贷表现也有了更多的了解，这让我们对实际部署更多营销资金的能力充满信心。至于你提出的有关业务发展的问题，这是支出方面的问题，没有什么重大的变化。本季度在商业支出以及我们与一些银行卡会员和合作伙伴的激励措施方面，我用了 "效率 "这个词，它给我们带来了一些效率，但没有任何与联合品牌合作伙伴或类似性质的东西有关。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。请说。

Richard Shane 理查德-夏恩

Thanks, everybody for taking my question. And I apologize, I can't see my computer this morning, so it's a little hard to get context on the marketing spend. But what I'm trying to understand is the following. What I've heard is that given the strength of the underlying business, the incremental marketing spend is going to be funded organically as opposed to from the Accertify gain. What I'm wondering is that $800 million year-over-year, has that changed materially from your prior guidance? Have you, in fact increased your expectations and funded it organically? Or is it roughly the same and it's just a matter of how you're going to pay for it?

谢谢大家回答我的问题。很抱歉，我今天早上看不到电脑，所以很难了解营销费用的来龙去脉。但我想了解的是以下几点。我听说，考虑到基础业务的实力，增量市场营销费用将通过有机方式获得，而不是从 Accertify 收益中获得。我想知道的是，8 亿美元的同比增长与你们之前的指导相比有实质性的变化吗？事实上，你们是否提高了预期，并以有机方式提供资金？还是大致相同，只是如何支付的问题？

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. Let me take that question and I hope you fix your computer problem soon. The way to think about this is, we always -- so we entered the year thinking we want to invest and we want to invest more because we see the opportunities and they are compelling investments with attractive returns. The fact of the matter is that the core business, which I would define as like the business, excluding the Accertify gain is generating more earnings than we had anticipated. So you're right, we can afford to spend more and to fund it through the core business. But on top of that, we also raised a little bit our marketing dollars. Now it's not a significant amount. As we've said in the past, in a given week, we spent $120 million on average of marketing dollars. So $100 million or $200 million a bit more or a bit less, it's actually not that material. But the key thing here is that in terms of the funding, it's going to be funded all from the core business and because it's generating more earnings than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year.

好的让我来回答这个问题，希望你能尽快解决电脑问题。思考这个问题的方式是，我们总是 -- 所以我们在今年开始时就想，我们要投资，而且要投资更多，因为我们看到了机会，而且这些机会是具有吸引力和回报的投资。事实是，核心业务（我将其定义为业务），不包括 Accertify 收益，产生的收益超过了我们的预期。所以，你说得没错，我们可以承担更多的开支，并通过核心业务提供资金。除此之外，我们还提高了一点营销费用。现在，这并不是一个很大的数目。正如我们过去所说，在一周内，我们平均花费 1.2 亿美元用于营销。因此，1 亿美元还是 2 亿美元，多一点还是少一点，其实并不重要。但最关键的是，在资金方面，它将全部由核心业务提供资金，因为它产生的收益比我们年初预计的要多。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Jeff Adelson of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的 Jeff Adelson。请说。

Jeffrey Adelson 杰弗里-阿德尔森

Hey, good morning, Steve and Christophe.

早上好，史蒂夫和克里斯托夫。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Good morning. 早上好。

Christophe Le Caillec

Good morning. 早上好。

Jeffrey Adelson 杰弗里-阿德尔森

Just wanted to revisit the credit quality a little bit. I know last quarter, Christophe, you were talking about your expectation for write-offs to kind of continue ticking up from here. And it seems like your view has now shifted to a more stable outlook over the rest of the year. Can you just maybe talk about what you're seeing from your core customers' health and maybe what's driving some more confidence in the outlook there? And then should we also be thinking about a stable reserve rate from here versus, I think you were talking about more of an uptick over the rest of the year as well previously? Thank you.

我只想再谈一下信贷质量。我知道在上一季度，克里斯托弗，你谈到了你对核销的预期，即从现在开始继续上升。现在看来，你对今年余下时间的展望已经转向更加稳定。你能不能谈谈你从核心客户的健康状况中看到了什么，是什么促使他们对前景更有信心？然后，我们是否也应该考虑从现在开始保持稳定的储备率，而不是像你之前所说的那样，在今年余下的时间里出现更多的上升？谢谢。

Christophe Le Caillec

Yeah. Hey, good morning, Jeff. So you're right, we have changed a little bit the way we think about credit write-offs for the balance of the year. And we are at the beginning of Q3 now, we had good visibility in terms of what's going to write-off in Q3 and Q4. So we can be more confident in terms of providing a direction here. And to your point, the direction we're providing now is that it's going to be like stable at about the level you saw in Q2 at around 2.1%. Now, I need to say this specifically to address your question on the reserve and how to think about it for the balance of the year. A big driver of the reserve is going to be the delinquency levels, right. Those card members that are showing signs of -- signals of stress early on. The delinquency improvement in the quarter, there is seasonality in that improvement, right. And so we expect that delinquency rate is just going to probably tick-up a bit in the balance of the year and that will drive a bit of incremental reserve together with the volume growth that we expect to see. But from a reserve rate standpoint, we are 2.8%. It's a good reference point for what to expect for the balance of year. It might increase a little bit. We'll see. It's hard to predict where CECL is just going to land exactly at the end of Q4, but it's a good guide in terms of what to expect for the balance of the year. I would expect 2.8%, maybe 2.9%, but we're going to be in that range. And to your point, credit losses, we expect stability from where we are now for the balance of the year.

早上好，杰夫你说得没错，我们已经稍微改变了对全年信贷核销的看法。现在正值第三季度初，我们对第三季度和第四季度的核销情况有很好的预见性。因此，我们在提供方向方面更有信心。对于你的问题，我们现在提供的方向是，它将稳定在你在第二季度看到的 2.1% 左右的水平。现在，我需要特别针对你关于储备金以及如何考虑今年余下时间的问题说一下。准备金的一个主要驱动因素是拖欠水平，对吧。这些银行卡会员在早期就显示出压力的迹象。本季度的拖欠情况有所改善，但这种改善存在季节性，对吧。因此，我们预计拖欠率在今年余下的时间里可能会略有上升，这将与我们预期看到的业务量增长一起推动准备金的增加。但从准备金率的角度来看，我们的准备金率为 2.8%。这是一个很好的参考点，可以预期今年下半年的情况。它可能会增加一点。我们拭目以待。我们很难预测 CECL 在第四季度末的确切落地情况，但这对全年的预期是一个很好的指导。我的预期是 2.8%，也许是 2.9%，但我们会在这个范围内。至于你提到的信贷损失，我们预计今年下半年将保持稳定。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Mark DeVries of Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自德意志银行的马克-德弗里斯。请说。

Mark DeVries 马克-德弗里斯

Yeah, thanks. As I think you pointed out, it is pretty unusual for you to let a gain like the Accertify gain fall to the bottom line. And I realize you don't give 2025 guidance, but Steve, just kind of wondering if you still expect to target that mid-teens EPS growth off this higher 2024 EPS level?

是的，谢谢。正如你所指出的，让像Accertify这样的收益计入底线对我们来说是相当不寻常的。我意识到你们没有给出2025年的指导，但是Steve，我只是想知道，你们是否仍然期望在这个更高的2024年每股收益水平上实现中双位数的每股收益增长？

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Well, I'm actually glad you asked that question because it is a one-time gain. And so as we do give guidance for next year, we certainly do expect to be in that mid-teens EPS range. However, we will be -- and we'd expect that people would adjust for that one time gain. I think by calling out that one time gain the way that we have and not using it within the business, I think it makes your job a little bit easier to just sort of remove that and then build from there. Because, when you look at it, it's a one-time gain. That's why they call it a one-time gain. But the thing that I would also point out is that, because we have elevated our marketing spending to where it is using the core business and not use the one-time gain and that gives us the opportunity to actually reset our marketing at a much higher level for next year, which will allow us to drive even more growth as we go forward. So, that's the big advantage that we look at this by not using a one-time gain and saying, hey, look, that's what we didn't have in our core. By adjusting up our marketing by using core earnings, our anticipation is we'll be able to keep that marketing there and grow from there going forward versus going back to the $5.2 billion.

好的，实际上我很高兴你问了那个问题，因为这确实是一次性收益。所以正如我们为明年提供的指导，我们当然期望能达到中双位数的每股收益区间。然而，我们将——我们也希望人们能对这一时收益进行调整。我认为，通过我们提出一次性收益的方式，而不是将其用于业务中，我认为这让你的计算工作变得更容易一些，只需将其剔除，然后从那里开始构建。因为当你看到它时，它是一次性收益。这就是为什么它们称它为一次性收益。但我还想指出的是，因为我们已经提高了我们的营销支出，使用核心业务而不是一次性收益，这给了我们明年实际上将我们的营销重置在一个更高水平的机会，这将使我们能够在未来推动更多的增长。所以，这就是我们通过不使用一次性收益并说，嘿，看，这是我们核心业务中没有的。通过使用核心收益调整我们的营销，我们的预期是我们将能够保持那里的营销，并从那里向前发展，而不是回到52亿美元。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Chris Kennedy of William Blair. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自威廉-布莱尔公司的克里斯-肯尼迪。请说。

Cristopher Kennedy 克里斯托弗-肯尼迪

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. At the Investor Day, digital banking was one of the key areas of investment over the next couple of years. Can you just talk about those investments and what the goal is there?

早上好。感谢您接受提问。在投资者日上，数字银行是未来几年的重点投资领域之一。你能谈谈这些投资和目标吗？

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. Look the overall goal is to be more engaged with both our small businesses and to be more engaged with our consumers. And I think, you know, digital banking is a bit of a journey for us. We now have multiple accounts and we're just going to continue to invest not only in capabilities, but continue to invest in making sure that our customers are using that. So there'll be more to come on that, but we're at the beginning of this journey and there's still a long way for us to go.

是的。总的来说，我们的目标是让我们的小企业和消费者都更多地参与进来。我认为，你知道，数字银行对我们来说是一段旅程。我们现在有多个账户，我们将继续投资，不仅在功能上，而且要继续投资，以确保我们的客户正在使用它。因此，在这方面还会有更多的投入，但我们还处于起步阶段，还有很长的路要走。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Terry Ma of Barclays. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自巴克莱银行的 Terry Ma。请说。

Terry Ma

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Just want to get some more color on how your announced product refreshes are going in terms of just acquisitions, retentions and just overall receptiveness and whether or not you still feel pretty good about having net card fees exit the year higher than last year?

嘿，谢谢早上好。我只是想了解一下，你们宣布的产品更新在收购、保留和整体接受度方面的进展情况，以及你们是否仍然对今年的净卡费高于去年感觉良好？

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. In terms of acquisition or the product refreshes?

是的，是收购还是产品更新？

Terry Ma

In terms of just overall how product refreshers are going? And whether or not, you still feel pretty good about having net card fee growth exit the year?

产品更新的总体情况如何？你对今年的净卡费增长是否感觉良好？

Christophe Le Caillec

Yeah, net card fee. So we feel very good about either adding a bit more momentum as we said in terms of the card fee growth, we are at like 16% FX adjusted and we are definitely expecting this to tick up a bit in the balance of the year. It's on the back of the product refreshes, but not only on the back of product refreshes, I mean they're the single most important -- as I said in my prepared remark here, single most important element of that is the renewed commitment that card members, tenured card members in the portfolio make every year to actually renew their membership, right. That's a super important element of the mix here. But card refreshes, we are on track. We talked about 40 products and we are tracking well against that. And as Steve said, gold is next to come.

是的，净卡费。因此，正如我们所说的，在卡费增长方面，我们感觉非常好，我们的外汇调整后增长率为 16%，而且我们肯定会在今年余下的时间里继续保持这一增长势头。这是产品更新的结果，但不仅仅是产品更新的结果，我的意思是，它们是最重要的因素，正如我在准备的发言中所说，最重要的因素是银行卡会员、投资组合中的长期银行卡会员每年都重新作出承诺，实际更新他们的会员资格，对吧。这是一个超级重要的因素。但是，卡片更新，我们正在按计划进行。我们谈到了 40 种产品，目前进展顺利。正如史蒂夫所说，黄金卡是下一个目标。

Stephen Squeri 斯蒂芬-斯奎利

Yeah. I mean we're about halfway through on those product refreshes. Gold is the next big one to come. And it's really a little bit too early to tell how each one individually has done. But what you look at is 3.4 million cards, 3.3 million cards acquired and retention rates are still strong. And those are the things that you look at, but we'll be able to have more color as the year goes on.

是的，我是说我们的产品更新已经进行了一半。黄金版是下一个重头戏。现在说每款产品的表现如何还为时尚早。但我们看到的是，340 万张卡、330 万张卡被收购，而且保留率仍然很高。这些都是你要看的，但随着时间的推移，我们会有更多的信息。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Saul Martinez of HSBC. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自汇丰银行的索尔-马丁内斯。请说。

Saul Martinez 索尔-马丁内斯

Hey, good morning, guys. So a question on your EPS guide, the mid-point of your guidance range implies an EPS in the second half that at the mid-point of the range suggests around 2.6% growth. I think at the higher end, it's roughly, it's a little under 7%. Now, obviously, the higher marketing explains the bulk of it, if not all of it. But just wanted to ask, is there anything else there that is relevant that we should be thinking about driving that deceleration and maybe different than what you had anticipated? Because obviously, on a core basis, your numbers tripping out of Accertify have been better than expected in the first half, yet core basis kept EPS guide unchanged. And on that second half outlook, I think you have said in the past, correct me if I'm wrong, that card deceleration ends the year closer to 20%. I think you -- I don't think you've given a specific number on this call other than to say you see some acceleration, but it's 20% still the bogey there? Thanks.

早上好，各位。关于你们的每股收益指导，你们指导范围的中间点意味着下半年的每股收益将增长 2.6%左右。我认为在高端，大约是略低于 7%。现在，很明显，较高的市场营销即使不是全部，也能解释其中的大部分。但我想问的是，还有什么其他相关因素需要我们去思考，以推动增长减速，而且可能与你的预期不同？因为很明显，在核心基础上，上半年 Accertify 的数据好于预期，但核心基础保持了每股收益指南不变。关于下半年的展望，我想你过去曾说过，如果我说错了，请纠正我，今年年底的卡减速将接近 20%。我想你--我想你在这次电话会议上没有给出一个具体数字，只是说你看到了一些加速，但 20% 仍然是个未知数？谢谢。

Christophe Le Caillec

So we haven't given a number. So, and I'm going to stick to that. But your math is -- we've done the math as well and we're looking at those numbers and you need to factor as well into account the fact that last quarter, we had like about $200 million of one-off gain as well. You might remember linked to the URR model. But when -- as you think about the balance of the year, there are a couple of additional items to bake into your forecast. The first thing is that, as I said it was one of previous question, I think it was from Jeff, we expect to build some balances in the balance of the year for credit reserves, CECL balance -- CECL reserves, sorry. And so, that will put a bit of pressure on the EPS. The second thing is that OpEx, we're investing in technology. As I said in my remarks as well, we're investing in our control management capabilities. And typically as well, it's a seasonal factor at American Express, we've seen operating expenses pick-up a little bit towards the end of the year. So when you bake all of this into account, including a bit more marketing that we are projecting at this at this point in time, in the balance of year, you actually get back on your feet and you'll see that the EPS cadence or run rate is actually not moving that much and remains like very high.

所以我们还没有给出一个数字。所以，我会坚持这一点。但你的计算是 -- 我们也做了计算，我们正在看这些数字，你需要考虑到上个季度我们有大约 2 亿美元的一次性收益这一事实。你可能还记得与URR模型有关。但是，当你考虑今年的剩余时间时，你的预测中还需要考虑一些额外的项目。第一件事是，正如我之前说过的，我想是杰夫（Jeff）提出的一个问题，我们预计在今年的余额中会有一些信贷准备金余额、CECL 余额 -- CECL 准备金，抱歉。因此，这将给每股收益带来一些压力。第二点是运营支出，我们正在进行技术投资。正如我在发言中所说，我们正在投资于我们的控制管理能力。通常，这也是美国运通的一个季节性因素，我们看到运营支出在年底会略有增加。因此，当你把所有这些都考虑在内，包括我们目前预计的更多的营销费用，在今年年底的时候，你实际上会重新站起来，你会发现每股收益的节奏或运行率实际上没有太大的变化，仍然很高。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. The next question is coming from Moshe Orenbuch of TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

谢谢。下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。请说。

Moshe Orenbuch 摩西-奥伦布赫

Great. Thanks. And is there, Kartik, as you look at the net interest income, that did decelerate about six points in the quarter from the first quarter level, but still the growth rate of NII is still well above the growth rate in loans. As you kind of approach the end of the year, do you think that those two kind of converge or will there be margin pressure? And could that net interest income growth be lower than the growth in balances by then?

太好了。谢谢。卡提克，从净利息收入来看，本季度确实比第一季度下降了约 6 个百分点，但净利息收入的增长率仍然远高于贷款增长率。随着年底的临近，你认为这两者会趋于一致，还是会有利润率压力？到那时，净利息收入的增长会低于贷款余额的增长吗？

Christophe Le Caillec

Yeah . Thank you for your question, Moshe. There are a couple of things to keep in mind here. The first one is that, as I've said, we should expect the volume, the balances, the loans to growth rate to moderate a bit further in the balance of the year, although it will remain in double-digit. From a yield standpoint, we have a slide that shows the yield. We had a bit of a yield improvement on the back of, I would say a few things, year-over-year yield improvement on the back of their revolve rates are a bit higher and they keep ticking up a little bit. And the second thing is and as we covered during the Investor Day on the funding side, we still have this dynamic around a bigger share of our funding mix going to high yield savings accounts, which for us is an effective funding channel. And so that dynamic is still going to play out in the balance of the year. And so you should expect to see the NII growth rate kind of like moderate a bit in the balance of the year.

谢谢你的提问，摩西。这里有几件事需要注意。第一点是，正如我所说的，我们应该预计贷款额、贷款余额和贷款增长率在今年下半年会进一步放缓，但仍将保持两位数的增长。从收益率的角度来看，我们有一张幻灯片显示收益率。我们的收益率有所提高，原因有几个方面：一是同比收益率有所提高，因为他们的循环利率略高，而且还在不断上升。第二点是，正如我们在投资者日上提到的，在资金方面，我们仍然有更多的资金流向高收益储蓄账户，这对我们来说是一个有效的融资渠道。因此，在今年余下的时间里，这种态势仍将持续。因此，在今年余下的时间里，你们应该会看到 NII 增长率会略有放缓。

Operator 操作员

Thank you. Our final question will be coming from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

谢谢。最后一个问题来自美国银行的米希尔-巴蒂亚（Mihir Bhatia）。请说。

Mihir Bhatia 米希尔-巴蒂亚

Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to go back just on -- just staying on spending and revenue. Is it fair to say that you're planning for this softer spending environment to continue for the next couple of quarters. So discount revenue growth will be at like current quarter levels is probably a fair way to think about it or are you thinking any change in that trajectory? And then just relatedly on spending, if I could just -- if you could just discuss what happened in large and global spend? It looked like it decelerated a fair amount. So is there anything to call-out there? I mean, I know it's a smaller business, but it's a fairly meaningful deceleration.

您好，感谢您提出问题。我想回到——只是继续关注消费和收入。是否可以这样说，您计划在接下来的几个季度中这种较为疲软的消费环境将继续存在。因此，折扣收入增长将保持在当前季度的水平，这可能是一个合理的思考方式，或者您是否认为这一趋势会有所改变？然后关于消费，如果我可以——如果您可以讨论一下大型和全球消费的情况？看起来它的减速相当大。那里是否有任何需要指出的情况？我知道这是一桩较小的业务，但这是一个相当有意义的减速。

Christophe Le Caillec

So let me take the first one around how we're thinking about billing. So we are -- as I said, we see a lot of stability across the last two quarter, three quarters and even a bit further when you look at this in detail. So from a guidance standpoint, when we develop the guidance and the revenue guidance, that's what we bake in. If there is upside to that spend level, then all -- it's going to be a good thing for us. But from a guidance standpoint, that's what we are assuming on the revenue side. When it comes to global and large, last quarter, you remember, there was like a tick up, it was at 5%. This quarter there was a -- we're back to that 0%. There are few things here, like there's really nothing meaningful outside of like we noticed in like one specific client like a significant drop in terms of their card member usage, but there is nothing really material there, not big change, not an inflection point in terms of what we see in terms of corporate card spend. Donna, back to you.

首先，让我谈谈我们对计费的看法。正如我所说，在过去的两个季度、三个季度甚至更长的时间里，我们都看到了很大的稳定性。因此，从指导的角度来看，我们在制定指导和收入指导时，都会考虑到这一点。如果支出水平有上升空间，那么对我们来说都是好事。但从指导的角度来看，这就是我们在收入方面的假设。说到全球和大型业务，还记得上一季度吗？本季度，我们又回到了 0%。这里有一些事情，比如除了我们注意到一个特定客户的会员卡使用率大幅下降之外，真的没有什么有意义的事情，但也没有什么实质性的变化，不是大的变化，也不是我们所看到的企业卡消费方面的拐点。唐娜，回到你的话题。

Kartik Ramachandran 卡尔提克-拉马钱德兰

All right. Well, with that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Thank you. Donna?

好的好了，通话到此结束。再次感谢您参加今天的电话会议，感谢您一直以来对美国运通的关注。投资者关系团队将随时回答您的任何后续问题。谢谢。唐娜？

Operator 操作员

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at 877-660-6853 or 201-612-7415. Access code 13747456 after 1:00 PM, Eastern Time on July 19th through July 26th. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士们、先生们，网络直播重播将在电话会议结束后不久在我们的投资者关系网站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。您也可以拨打 877-660-6853 或 201-612-7415 获得电话会议的数字重播。东部时间 7 月 19 日下午 1:00 后至 7 月 26 日，访问代码为 13747456。今天的电话会议到此结束。感谢您的参与。您现在可以挂断电话。