2024-07-30 Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2024 5:30 PM ET
微软公司 (NASDAQ:MSFT) 2024 年第四季度收益电话会议 美国东部时间 2024 年 7 月 30 日下午 5:30
Company Participants 公司参与者
Brett Iversen - Vice President of Investor Relations
Brett Iversen - 投资者关系副总裁
Satya Nadella - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
萨提亚-纳德拉 - 主席兼首席执行官
Amy Hood - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
艾米-胡德 - 执行副总裁兼首席财务官
Conference Call Participants
电话会议与会者
Keith Weiss - Morgan Stanley
Keith Weiss - 摩根士丹利
Mark Moerdler - Bernstein Research
Mark Moerdler - 伯恩斯坦研究公司
Kasthuri Rangan - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Brent Thill - Jefferies LLC
Karl Keirstead - UBS Karl Keirstead - 瑞银
Brad Zelnick - Deutsche Bank
Brad Zelnick - 德意志银行
Mark Murphy - JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Keith Bachman - BMO Capital Markets
Operator 操作员
Greetings and welcome to the Microsoft Fiscal Year 2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. At this time all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
大家好，欢迎参加微软2024财年第四季度财报电话会议。现在所有与会者都处于只听模式。正式发言后将进行问答环节。[接线员指示]请注意，本次会议正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Brett Iversen, Vice President of Investor Relations.
现在，我想把会议交给主持人、投资者关系副总裁布雷特-伊弗森（Brett Iversen）。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. On the call with me are Satya Nadella, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Amy Hood, Chief Financial Officer, Alice Jolla, Chief Accounting Officer, and Keith Dolliver, Corporate Secretary and Deputy General Counsel.
下午好，感谢大家参加今天的会议。与我一起参加电话会议的有：董事长兼首席执行官萨蒂亚-纳德拉（Satya Nadella）、首席财务官艾米-胡德（Amy Hood）、首席会计官爱丽丝-乔拉（Alice Jolla）和公司秘书兼副总法律顾问基思-多利弗（Keith Dolliver）。
On the Microsoft Investor Relations website, you can find our earnings press release and financial summary slide deck, which is intended to supplement our prepared remarks during today’s call and provides the reconciliation of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. More detailed outlook slides will be available on the Microsoft Investor Relations website when we provide outlook commentary on today’s call.
在微软投资者关系网站上，您可以找到我们的财报新闻稿和财务摘要幻灯片，该幻灯片旨在补充我们在今天电话会议上准备好的发言，并提供 GAAP 与非 GAAP 财务指标之间差异的调节。当我们在今天的电话会议上提供展望评论时，您可以在微软投资者关系网站上看到更详细的展望幻灯片。
On this call we will discuss certain non-GAAP items. The non-GAAP financial measures provided should not be considered as a substitute for or superior to the measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. They are included as additional clarifying items to aid investors in further understanding the company's fourth quarter performance in addition to the impact these items and events have on the financial results.
在本次电话会议中，我们将讨论某些非美国通用会计准则项目。所提供的非美国通用会计准则财务指标不应被视为可替代或优于按照美国通用会计准则编制的财务业绩指标。除了这些项目和事件对财务业绩的影响之外，我们还将它们作为额外的澄清项目，帮助投资者 进一步了解公司第四季度的业绩。
All growth comparisons we make on the call today relate to the corresponding period of last year unless otherwise noted. We will also provide growth rates in constant currency, when available, as a framework for assessing how our underlying businesses performed, excluding the effect of foreign currency rate fluctuations. Where growth rates are the same in constant currency, we will refer to the growth rate only.
除非另有说明，否则我们今天在电话会议上所做的所有增长比较都与去年同期有关。我们还将提供以固定汇率计算的增长率（如有），作为评估我们基本业务表现的框架，其中不包括汇率波动的影响。如果以固定汇率计算的增长率相同，我们将仅提及增长率。
We will post our prepared remarks to our website immediately following the call until the complete transcript is available. Today's call is being webcast live and recorded. If you ask a question, it will be included in our live transmission, in the transcript, and in any future use of the recording. You can replay the call and view the transcript on the Microsoft Investor Relations website.
我们将在电话会议结束后立即在我们的网站上发布我们准备好的发言稿，直到完整的发言稿发布为止。今天的电话会议将进行网络直播和录音。如果您提出问题，您的问题将包括在我们的现场直播、录音誊本中，并在今后的任何录音中使用。您可以在微软投资者关系网站上重播电话会议并查看文字稿。
During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are predictions, projections, or other statements about future events. These statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could materially differ because of factors discussed in today's earnings press release, in the comments made during this conference call, and in the risk factor section of our Form 10-K, Forms 10-Q, and other reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We do not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statement.
在本次电话会议中，我们将发表前瞻性声明，即对未来事件的预测、预估或其他声明。这些陈述基于当前的预期和假设，存在一定的风险和不确定性。实际结果可能会因为今天的财报新闻稿、本次电话会议上的评论以及我们向美国证券交易委员会提交的 10-K 表、10-Q 表和其他报告及文件中的风险因素部分所讨论的因素而出现重大差异。我们不承担更新任何前瞻性声明的责任。
And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Satya.
下面请萨特雅发言。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Thank you, Brett. We had a solid close to our fiscal year. All-up, annual revenue was more than $245 billion, up 15% year-over-year. And Microsoft Cloud revenue surpassed $135 billion, up 23%. Before I dive in, I want to offer some broader perspective on the AI platform shift.
谢谢你，布雷特。本财年我们取得了稳健的收官。全年总收入超过 2450 亿美元，同比增长 15%。其中，微软云收入超过1350亿美元，同比增长23%。在进入正题之前，我想从更广阔的角度谈谈人工智能平台的转变。
Similar to the cloud, this transition involves both knowledge and capital intensive investments. And as we go through this shift, we are focused on two fundamental things: First, driving innovation across a product portfolio that spans infrastructure and applications so as to ensure that we are maximizing our opportunity, while in parallel continuing to scale our cloud business and prioritizing fundamentals, starting with security. Second, using customer demand signal and time to value to manage our cost structure dynamically and generate durable, long-term operating leverage.
与云计算类似，这种转变既涉及知识密集型投资，也涉及资本密集型投资。在经历这一转变的过程中，我们专注于两件根本性的事情：第一，推动基础设施和应用产品组合的创新，以确保我们最大限度地利用机会，同时继续扩大我们的云业务规模，并优先考虑基本要素，首先是安全性。第二，利用客户需求信号和价值实现时间来动态管理我们的成本结构，并产生持久、长期的运营杠杆。
这段描述不够清晰，但凡不清晰、不具体都跟幻觉有关。
With that, let me highlight examples, starting with Azure. Our share gains accelerated this year, driven by AI. We expanded our datacenter footprint, announcing investments across four continents. These are long-term assets around the world to drive growth for the next decade and beyond.
在此，请允许我从 Azure 开始重点举例说明。今年，在人工智能的推动下，我们的份额增长加速。我们扩大了数据中心的覆盖范围，宣布在四大洲进行投资。这些都是遍布全球的长期资产，将推动未来十年及以后的增长。
We added new AI accelerators from AMD and NVIDIA, as well as our own first party silicon Azure Maia. And we introduced new Cobalt 100, which provides best-in-class performance for customers like Elastic, MongoDB, Siemens, Snowflake, and Teradata.
我们增加了来自 AMD 和 NVIDIA 的新人工智能加速器，以及我们自己的第一方芯片 Azure Maia。我们还推出了新的 Cobalt 100，为 Elastic、MongoDB、Siemens、Snowflake 和 Teradata 等客户提供同类最佳的性能。
We continued to see sustained revenue growth from migrations. Azure Arc is helping customers in every industry, from ABB and Cathay Pacific, to LaLiga, to streamline their cloud migrations. We now have 36,000 Arc customers, up 90% year-over-year.
我们继续看到迁移带来的持续收入增长。从 ABB 和国泰航空到西甲联赛，Azure Arc 正在帮助各行各业的客户简化云迁移。我们现在拥有 36,000 个 Arc 客户，同比增长 90%。
We remain the hyperscale cloud of choice for SAP and Oracle workloads. Atos, Coles, Daimler Truck AG, Domino’s, Haleon, for example, all migrated their mission-critical SAP workloads to our cloud.
我们仍然是 SAP 和 Oracle 工作负载首选的超大规模云。例如，Atos、Coles、Daimler Truck AG、Domino's 和 Haleon 都将其关键任务 SAP 工作负载迁移到了我们的云上。
And with our Azure VMware Solution, we offer the fastest and most cost-effective way for customers to migrate their VMware workloads too. With Azure AI, we are building out the app server for the AI wave, providing access to the most diverse selection of models to meet customers’ unique cost, latency, and design considerations.
通过我们的 Azure VMware 解决方案，我们也为客户迁移其 VMware 工作负载提供了最快、最具成本效益的方法。借助 Azure AI，我们正在为人工智能浪潮构建应用服务器，提供最多样化的机型选择，以满足客户在成本、延迟和设计方面的独特需求。
All-up, we now have over 60,000 Azure AI customers, up nearly 60% year-over-year, and average spend per customer continues to grow. Azure OpenAI Service provides access to best-in-class frontier models, including as of this quarter GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini.
总体而言，我们现在拥有超过 60,000 名 Azure AI 客户，同比增长近 60%，每位客户的平均支出也在持续增长。Azure OpenAI 服务提供对一流前沿模型的访问，包括本季度的 GPT-4o 和 GPT-4o mini。
It is being used by leading companies in every industry, including H&R Block, Suzuki, Swiss Re, Telstra as well as digital natives like Freshworks, Meesho, and Zomato. With Phi-3, we offer a family of powerful, small language models, which are being used by companies like BlackRock, Emirates, Epic, ITC, Navy Federal Credit Union, and others.
各行各业的领先公司都在使用它，包括 H&R Block、铃木、瑞士再保险、澳洲电信以及 Freshworks、Meesho 和 Zomato 等数字原生公司。通过 Phi-3，我们提供了一系列功能强大的小型语言模型，贝莱德（BlackRock）、阿联酋航空、Epic、ITC、海军联邦信用合作社（Navy Federal Credit Union）等公司正在使用这些模型。
And with Models as a Service, we provide API access to third-party models, including as of last week the latest from Cohere, Meta, and Mistral. The number of paid Models as a Service customers more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, and we are seeing increased usage by leaders in every industry, from Adobe and Bridgestone, to Novo Nordisk and Palantir.
通过 "模型即服务"，我们提供了对第三方模型的 API 访问，包括上周来自 Cohere、Meta 和 Mistral 的最新模型。模型即服务 "的付费客户数量比上一季度增加了一倍多，我们看到从 Adobe 和普利司通（Bridgestone）到诺和诺德（Novo Nordisk）和帕兰提尔（Palantir）等各行各业的领导者都越来越多地使用模型即服务。
在我自己的体验中，翻译软件的进步非常快，DeepL已经不是最好的选择，也不是ChatGPT，KIMI是目前最好的选择，估计还在快速进步中，需求显然是存在的，需求还会衍生更多的需求。
Now, on to data. Our Microsoft Intelligent Data Platform provides customers with the broadest capabilities spanning databases, analytics, business intelligence, and governance along with seamless integration with all of our AI services. The number of Azure AI customers also using our data and analytics tools grew nearly 50% year-over-year.
现在，我们来谈谈数据。我们的微软智能数据平台（Microsoft Intelligent Data Platform）为客户提供了最广泛的功能，涵盖数据库、分析、商业智能和治理，以及与我们所有人工智能服务的无缝集成。同时使用我们的数据和分析工具的 Azure AI 客户数量同比增长了近 50%。
Microsoft Fabric, our AI-powered next generation data platform – now has over 14,000 paid customers, including leaders in every industry, from Accenture and Kroger, to Rockwell Automation and Zeiss up 20% quarter-over-quarter. And, this quarter, we introduced new first-of-their-kind real-time intelligence capabilities in Fabric so customers can unlock insights on high-volume, time sensitive data.
Microsoft Fabric 是我们的人工智能驱动的下一代数据平台，目前已拥有超过 14,000 家付费客户，其中包括从埃森哲和克罗格到罗克韦尔自动化和蔡司等各行各业的领先企业，季度环比增长 20%。本季度，我们在 Fabric 中推出了首创的全新实时智能功能，使客户能够深入了解大量的时间敏感数据。
Now, on to developer tools. GitHub Copilot is by far the most widely adopted AI-powered developer tool. Just over two years since its general availability, more than 77,000 organizations from BBVA, FedEx, and H&M, to Infosys and Paytm have adopted Copilot, up 180% year-over-year.
现在，我们来看看开发者工具。GitHub Copilot 是迄今为止应用最广泛的人工智能开发者工具。Copilot 推出仅两年多，从 BBVA、联邦快递（FedEx）、H&M 到 Infosys 和 Paytm，已有 77,000 多家企业采用了它，同比增长了 180%。
And we are going further. With Copilot Workspace, we offer Copilot-native end-to-end developer productivity across plan, build, test, debug, and deploy cycle. Copilot is driving GitHub growth, all up, GitHub’s annual revenue run rate is now $2 billion.
我们将更进一步。通过 Copilot Workspace，我们为开发人员提供了从计划、构建、测试、调试到部署的端到端生产力。Copilot 正在推动 GitHub 的增长，GitHub 的年收入已达 20 亿美元。
Copilot accounted for over 40% of GitHub revenue growth this year, and is already a larger business than all of GitHub was when we acquired it. We are also integrating generative AI across Power Platform, enabling anyone to use natural language to create apps, automate workflows, or build a website.
Copilot 占 GitHub 今年收入增长的 40% 以上，其业务规模已超过我们收购它时 GitHub 的全部业务。我们还在 Power Platform 上集成了生成式人工智能，使任何人都能使用自然语言创建应用程序、自动执行工作流或构建网站。
不一定是Copilot，但类似的工具很可能出现快速的增长，相当于原来还是冷兵器，现在每个人都可以搞个加特林。
To date, over 480,000 organizations have used AI-powered capabilities in Power Platform, up 45% quarter-over-quarter. In total, we now have 48 million monthly active users of Power Platform, up 40% year-over-year.
迄今为止，已有超过 48 万家企业使用了 Power Platform 的人工智能功能，季度同比增长 45%。目前，我们的 Power Platform 月活跃用户总数已达 4800 万，同比增长 40%。
Now, on to future of work. Copilot for Microsoft 365 is becoming a daily habit for knowledge workers, as it transforms work, workflow, and work artifacts. The number of people who use Copilot daily at work nearly doubled quarter-over-quarter, as they use it to complete tasks faster, hold more effective meetings, and automate business workflows and processes.
现在，我们来谈谈未来的工作。Microsoft 365 的 Copilot 正在成为知识工作者的日常习惯，因为它改变了工作、工作流程和工作成果。每天在工作中使用 Copilot 的人数比上一季度几乎翻了一番，因为他们用它来更快地完成任务、召开更有效的会议，以及实现业务工作流和流程的自动化。
Copilot customers increased more than 60% quarter-over-quarter. Feedback has been positive, with majority of enterprise customers coming back to purchase more seats. All-up, the number of customers with more than 10,000 seats more than doubled quarter-over-quarter, including Capital Group, Disney, Dow, Kyndryl, Novartis. And EY alone will deploy Copilot to 150,000 of its employees.
Copilot 客户的季度增长率超过 60%。客户反馈积极，大多数企业客户都会再次购买更多席位。总的来说，拥有超过 10,000 个席位的客户数量比上一季度增加了一倍多，其中包括 Capital Group、迪斯尼、陶氏、Kyndryl 和诺华。仅 EY 一家公司就将为其 15 万名员工部署 Copilot。
And we are going further, adding agent capabilities to Copilot. New Team Copilot can facilitate meetings, and create and assign tasks. And, with Copilot Studio, customers can extend Copilot for Microsoft 365 and build custom copilots that proactively respond to data and events using their own first and third-party business data.
我们将更进一步，为 Copilot 添加代理功能。新的团队 Copilot 可以促进会议、创建和分配任务。此外，通过 Copilot Studio，客户还可以扩展 Copilot for Microsoft 365，并使用自己的第一手数据和第三方业务数据构建可主动响应数据和事件的自定义 Copilot。
To date, 50,000 organizations from Carnival Corporation, Cognizant, and Eaton, to KPMG, Majesco, and McKinsey have used Copilot Studio, up over 70% quarter-over-quarter. We are also extending Copilot to specific industries, including healthcare, with DAX Copilot. More than 400 healthcare organizations including Community Health Network, Intermountain, Northwestern Memorial Healthcare, and Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center have purchased DAX Copilot to date, up 40% quarter-over-quarter, and the number of AI-generated clinical reports more than tripled.
迄今为止，从嘉年华公司（Carnival Corporation）、Cognizant 和伊顿公司（Eaton）到毕马威会计师事务所（KPMG）、Majesco 和麦肯锡（McKinsey），已有 50,000 家组织使用了 Copilot Studio，季度增长率超过 70%。我们还通过 DAX Copilot 将 Copilot 扩展到包括医疗保健在内的特定行业。迄今为止，已有 400 多家医疗机构购买了 DAX Copilot，其中包括 Community Health Network、Intermountain、Northwestern Memorial Healthcare 和俄亥俄州立大学 Wexner 医疗中心，季度增长率为 40%，人工智能生成的临床报告数量增加了两倍多。
Copilot is also transforming ERP and CRM business applications. We again took share this quarter, as customers like ThermoFisher Scientific switched to Dynamics. Our new Dynamics 365 Contact Center is a Copilot-first solution that infuses generative AI throughout the contact center workflow.
Copilot 也在改变 ERP 和 CRM 业务应用。本季度，随着 ThermoFisher Scientific 等客户转向 Dynamics，我们再次占据了市场份额。我们的新 Dynamics 365 联络中心是一个 Copilot 优先解决方案，在联络中心的整个工作流程中注入了生成式人工智能。
软件公司，以及软件最终影响的生产力，受益最大的还是数字化程度高的企业，华尔街所谓的风格轮动就是扯淡。
Companies like 1-800 Flowers, Mediterranean Shipping, Synoptek will rely on it to deliver better customer support. And Dynamics 365 Business Central is now trusted by over 40,000 organizations for core ERP.
1-800 Flowers、Mediterranean Shipping、Synoptek 等公司将依靠它提供更好的客户支持。目前，Dynamics 365 Business Central 已成为 40,000 多家企业信赖的核心企业资源规划系统。
Microsoft Teams has become essential to how hundreds of millions of people meet, call, chat, collaborate, and do business. We once again saw year-over-year usage growth. Teams Premium has surpassed 3 million seats, up nearly 400% year-over-year, as organizations like dentsu, Eli Lilly, and Ford chose it for advanced features like end-to-end encryption and real-time translation.
Microsoft Teams 已成为数亿人会面、通话、聊天、协作和开展业务的必备工具。我们再次见证了使用量的逐年增长。由于电通、礼来和福特等企业选择了 Teams Premium 来使用端到端加密和实时翻译等高级功能，Teams Premium 的使用量已突破 300 万，同比增长近 400%。
When it comes to devices, we introduced our new category of Copilot+ PCs this quarter. They are the fastest, most intelligent Windows PCs ever, and they include a new system architecture designed to deliver best-in-class performance and breakthrough AI experiences.
在设备方面，我们在本季度推出了全新类别的 Copilot+ PC。它们是有史以来速度最快、最智能的 Windows PC，采用了全新的系统架构，旨在提供同类最佳的性能和突破性的人工智能体验。
We are delighted by early reviews. And we are looking forward to the introduction of more Copilot+ PCs powered by all of our silicon and OEM partners in the coming months. More broadly, Windows 11 active devices increased 50% year-over-year. And we are seeing accelerated adoption of Windows 11 by companies like Carlsberg, E.ON, National Australia Bank.
我们对早期的评价感到非常高兴。我们期待在未来几个月内推出更多由我们所有芯片和 OEM 合作伙伴提供支持的 Copilot+ PC。更广泛地说，Windows 11 的活跃设备同比增长了 50%。我们看到嘉士伯、E.ON、澳大利亚国民银行等公司正在加速采用 Windows 11。
新技术可能带来大量硬件设备的更换，相比之下，苹果的优势更明显。
Now, on to security. We continue to prioritize security above all else. We are doubling down on our Secure Future Initiative, as we implement our principles of secure by design, secure by default, and secure operations. Through this initiative, we are also continually applying what we are learning, and translating it into innovation for our customers, including how we approach AI.
现在，谈谈安全问题。我们将继续把安全放在首位。我们正在加倍努力实施我们的 "安全未来计划"，贯彻我们的 "安全设计"、"安全默认 "和 "安全运营 "原则。通过这项计划，我们还在不断应用我们所学到的知识，并将其转化为对客户的创新，包括我们如何对待人工智能。
刚出过重大错误，乔布斯在2010年的Earnings Call中有非常经典的评价，封闭系统和开放系统，开放的另一种说法是碎片化，就是容易散架的意思。
Over 1,000 paid customers used Copilot for Security, including Alaska Airlines, Oregon State University, Petrofac, Wipro, WTW. And we are also securing customers’ AI deployments, with updates to Defender and Purview. All-up, we now have over 1.2 million security customers. Over 800,000 including Dell Technologies, Deutsche Telekom, TomTom use four or more workloads, up 25% year-over-year.
超过 1000 家付费客户使用了 Copilot for Security，其中包括阿拉斯加航空公司、俄勒冈州立大学、Petrofac、Wipro 和 WTW。我们还通过对 Defender 和 Purview 的更新，确保客户人工智能部署的安全。总而言之，我们现在拥有 120 多万安全客户。包括戴尔科技、德国电信、TomTom 在内的 80 多万客户使用四种或更多工作负载，同比增长 25%。
And Defender for Cloud, our cloud security solution, surpassed $1 billion in revenue over the past 12 months as we protect customer workloads across multi-cloud and hybrid environments.
我们的云安全解决方案 Defender for Cloud 在过去 12 个月中的收入超过了 10 亿美元，因为我们在多云和混合环境中保护客户的工作负载。
Now, let me turn to our consumer businesses, starting with LinkedIn. LinkedIn continues to see accelerated member growth and record engagement. 1.5 million pieces of content are shared every minute on the platform. And video is now the fastest growing format on LinkedIn, with uploads up 34% year-over-year. LinkedIn Marketing Solutions continues to be a leader in B2B digital advertising, helping companies deliver the right message, to the right audience, on a safe, trusted platform.
现在，请允许我从 LinkedIn 开始，谈谈我们的消费者业务。LinkedIn 的会员数量继续加速增长，参与度也创下新高。每分钟有 150 万条内容在该平台上分享。视频现在是 LinkedIn 上增长最快的形式，上传量同比增长了 34%。LinkedIn Marketing Solutions 始终是 B2B 数字广告领域的领导者，帮助企业在一个安全、可信的平台上向正确的受众传递正确的信息。
And when it comes to our subscription businesses, Premium sign ups increased 51% this fiscal year, and we are adding even more value to our members and customers with new AI tools. Our reimagined AI-powered LinkedIn Premium experience is now available for every Premium subscriber worldwide, helping them more easily and intuitively connect to opportunity, learn, and get career coaching. Finally, hiring took share for the second consecutive year.
在我们的订阅业务方面，本财年高级会员的注册人数增长了 51%，我们正在利用新的人工智能工具为会员和客户增加更多价值。我们重新设计了由人工智能驱动的 LinkedIn Premium 体验，现在全球每一位 Premium 订阅者都可以使用，帮助他们更轻松、更直观地联系机会、学习和获得职业指导。最后，招聘份额连续第二年增长。
And, now, on to Search, Advertising and News. We are ensuring that Bing, Edge, and Copilot collectively are driving more engagement and value to end-users, publishers, and advertisers. Our overall revenue ex-TAC increased 19% year-over-year, and we again took share across Bing and Edge. We continue to apply generative AI to pioneer new approaches to how people search and browse.
现在，我们来谈谈搜索、广告和新闻。我们正在确保必应、Edge 和 Copilot 共同为最终用户、出版商和广告商带来更多的参与和价值。我们不含 TAC 的整体收入同比增长了 19%，并再次在必应和 Edge 上占据了份额。我们将继续应用生成式人工智能，为人们的搜索和浏览方式开创新的方法。
Just last week, we announced we are testing a new generative search experience, which creates a dynamic response to a user’s query, while maintaining click share to publishers. And we continue to drive record engagement with Copilot for the web. Consumers have used Copilot to create over 12 billion images and conduct 13 billion chats to date, up 150% since the start of the calendar year.
就在上周，我们宣布正在测试一种新的生成式搜索体验，它能对用户的查询做出动态响应，同时保持出版商的点击份额。此外，我们还在继续推动创纪录的网络 Copilot 参与度。迄今为止，消费者已经使用 Copilot 创建了超过 120 亿张图片，并进行了 130 亿次聊天，自今年年初以来增长了 150%。
Thousands of news and entertainment publishers trust us to reach new audiences with Microsoft Start. And, in fact, we have paid them $1 billion over the last five years. We are helping advertisers increase their ROI too. We have seen positive response to Performance Max, which uses AI to dynamically create and optimize ads. And Copilot in Microsoft Ad Platform helps marketers create campaigns and troubleshoot using natural language.
数以千计的新闻和娱乐出版商信任我们，让我们通过 Microsoft Start 接触到新的受众。事实上，在过去五年中，我们已经为他们支付了 10 亿美元。我们也在帮助广告商提高投资回报率。我们看到了 Performance Max 的积极反响，它使用人工智能动态创建和优化广告。微软广告平台中的 Copilot 可以帮助营销人员使用自然语言创建营销活动并排除故障。
Now, on to gaming. We now have over 500 million monthly active users across platforms and devices. And our content pipeline has never been stronger. We previewed a record 30 new titles at our showcase this quarter. 18 of them such as Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 will be available on Game Pass. Game Pass Ultimate subscribers can now stream games directly on the devices they already have, including as of last month, Amazon Fire TVs.
现在，我们来谈谈游戏。现在，我们在各个平台和设备上拥有超过 5 亿的月活跃用户。我们的内容渠道从未如此强大。我们在本季度的展示会上预览了创纪录的 30 款新游戏。其中 18 部，如《使命召唤：黑色行动 6》将在 Game Pass 上提供。Game Pass Ultimate 用户现在可以直接在他们已有的设备上串流游戏，包括上个月推出的亚马逊 Fire TV。
Finally, we are bringing our IP to new audiences. Fallout, for example, made its debut as a TV show on Amazon Prime this quarter. It was the second most watched title on the platform ever, and hours played on Game Pass for Fallout franchise increased nearly 5x quarter-over-quarter.
最后，我们正在将我们的 IP 带给新的受众。例如，本季度《辐射》首次作为电视节目登陆亚马逊Prime平台。它是该平台有史以来收视率第二高的作品，《辐射》系列游戏在 Game Pass 上的播放时长比上一季度增加了近 5 倍。
In closing, I am energized about the opportunities ahead. We are investing for the long-term in our fundamentals, in our innovation, and in our people.
最后，我对未来的机遇充满信心。我们正在对我们的基本要素、创新和员工进行长期投资。
With that, let me turn it over to Amy.
下面请艾米发言。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thank you, Satya, and good afternoon everyone. This quarter, revenue was $64.7 billion, up 15% and 16% in constant currency. Earnings per share was $2.95 and increased 10% and 11% in constant currency.
谢谢你，萨提亚，大家下午好。本季度收入为 647 亿美元，同比增长 15%，按固定汇率计算增长 16%。每股收益为 2.95 美元，按固定汇率计算分别增长了 10%和 11%。
In our largest quarter of the year, we again delivered double-digit top and bottom line growth with continued share gains across many of our businesses and record commitments to our Microsoft Cloud platform. Commercial bookings were significantly ahead of expectations and increased 17% and 19% in constant currency. This record commitment quarter was driven by growth in the number of 10-million-dollar-plus and 100-million-dollar-plus contracts for both Azure and Microsoft 365 and consistent execution across our core annuity sales motions.
在今年最大的一个季度中，我们再次实现了两位数的净利润和净亏损增长，许多业务的份额持续增长，对微软云平台的承诺也创下了新高。商业预订大幅超出预期，按固定汇率计算分别增长了 17% 和 19%。Azure和Microsoft 365千万美元以上和一亿美元以上合同数量的增长，以及我们核心年金销售活动的持续执行，推动了本季度创纪录的承诺。
Commercial remaining performance obligation increased 20% and 21% in constant currency to $269 billion. Roughly 40% will be recognized in revenue in the next 12 months, up 18% year-over-year. The remaining portion, recognized beyond the next 12 months, increased 21%. And this quarter, our annuity mix was 97%.
商业剩余履约义务增长 20%，按固定汇率计算增长 21%，达到 2,690 亿美元。约 40% 将在未来 12 个月内确认为收入，同比增长 18%。其余部分在未来 12 个月后确认，同比增长 21%。本季度，我们的年金组合为 97%。
软件企业的优势。
At a company level, Activision contributed a net impact of approximately 3 points to revenue growth, was a 2 point drag on operating income growth, and had a negative $0.06 impact to earnings per share. A reminder that this net impact includes adjusting for the movement of Activision content from our prior relationship as a third-party partner to first-party, and includes $938 million from purchase accounting adjustments, integration, and transaction-related costs.
在公司层面，动视对收入增长的净影响约为 3 个百分点，对营业收入增长的拖累为 2 个百分点，对每股收益的影响为负 0.06 美元。需要提醒的是，这一净影响包括动视内容从我们之前的第三方合作伙伴关系向第一方合作伙伴关系的转移，还包括 9.38 亿美元的购买会计调整、整合和交易相关成本。
FX did not have a significant impact on our results and was roughly in line with our expectations on total company revenue, segment level revenue, COGS, and operating expense growth.
外汇没有对我们的业绩产生重大影响，而且与我们对公司总收入、分部收入、商品及服务费用和运营费用增长的预期基本一致。
Microsoft Cloud revenue was $36.8 billion and grew 21% and 22% in constant currency, roughly in line with expectations. Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage decreased roughly 2 points year-over-year to 69% in line with expectations. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate for useful lives, gross margin percentage decreased slightly driven by sales mix shift to Azure, partially offset by improvement in Azure even with the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure.
微软云收入为368亿美元，增长21%，按固定汇率计算增长22%，基本符合预期。微软云计算业务的毛利率同比下降约 2 个百分点，降至 69%，符合预期。剔除使用寿命会计估算变化的影响，毛利率略有下降，原因是销售组合向 Azure 转移，而 Azure 在扩大人工智能基础架构的影响下也有所改善，这部分抵消了毛利率下降的影响。
微软向云转型非常成功，相当于重生，这需要非常强大的体质，苹果肯定有，Google就不一定了。
Company gross margin dollars increased 14% and 15% in constant currency and gross margin percentage decreased slightly year-over-year to 70%. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage increased slightly, even with the impact from purchase accounting adjustments, integration, and transaction-related costs from the Activision acquisition.
公司毛利率增长了 14%，按固定汇率计算增长了 15%，毛利率百分比同比略有下降，为 70%。剔除会计估算变化的影响，毛利率百分比略有上升，即使受到收购 Activision 产生的购买会计调整、整合和交易相关成本的影响。
Operating expenses increased 13% with 9 points from the Activision acquisition. At a total company level, headcount at the end of June was 3% higher than a year ago. Operating income increased 15% and 16% in constant currency and operating margins were 43%, relatively unchanged year-over-year. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, operating margins increased slightly driven by the higher gross margin noted earlier and improved operating leverage through continued cost discipline.
运营费用增长了 13%，其中 9 个百分点来自于对动视公司的收购。从公司整体层面来看，6 月底的员工人数比去年同期增加了 3%。营业收入增长了 15%，按固定汇率计算增长了 16%，营业利润率为 43%，与去年同期相比相对持平。剔除会计估算变化的影响，营业利润率略有增长，这主要得益于之前提到的毛利率的提高，以及通过持续的成本控制提高了营业杠杆率。
Now to our segment results. Revenue from Productivity and Business Processes was $20.3 billion and grew 11% and 12% in constant currency, slightly ahead of expectations driven by better-than-expected results across all business units.
现在来谈谈我们的分部业绩。生产力与业务流程业务的收入为 203 亿美元，增长 11%，按固定汇率计算增长 12%，略高于预期，这主要得益于所有业务部门的业绩均好于预期。
Office commercial revenue grew 12% and 13% in constant currency. Office 365 commercial revenue increased 13% and 14% in constant currency with ARPU growth primarily from E5 momentum as well as Copilot for Microsoft 365. Paid Office 365 commercial seats grew 7% year-over-year with installed base expansion across all customer segments. Seat growth was again driven by our small and medium business and frontline worker offerings, although both segments continued to moderate.
Office 商业收入增长 12%，按固定汇率计算增长 13%。Office 365 商业收入增长了 13%，按固定汇率计算增长了 14%，ARPU 值的增长主要来自 E5 和 Copilot for Microsoft 365。付费 Office 365 商业席位同比增长 7%，所有客户群的装机量都有所扩大。中小型企业和一线员工产品再次推动了座席数的增长，尽管这两个细分市场的增长速度继续放缓。
Office commercial licensing declined 9% and 7% in constant currency, with continued customer shift to cloud offerings. Office consumer revenue increased 3% and 4% in constant currency with continued momentum in Microsoft 365 subscriptions, which grew 10% to 82.5 million.
由于客户继续转向云计算产品，Office 商业授权下降了 9%，按固定汇率计算下降了 7%。Office 消费者收入增长了 3%，按固定汇率计算增长了 4%，Microsoft 365 订阅量继续保持增长势头，增长了 10%，达到 8,250 万份。
LinkedIn revenue increased 10% and 9% in constant currency driven by better-than-expected performance across all businesses. Dynamics revenue grew 16% driven by Dynamics 365 which grew 19% and 20% in constant currency. We saw continued growth across all workloads and better-than-expected new business. Dynamics 365 now represents roughly 90% of total Dynamics revenue.
由于所有业务的表现均好于预期，LinkedIn 收入增长了 10%，按固定汇率计算增长了 9%。在 Dynamics 365 的带动下，Dynamics 收入增长了 16%，按固定汇率计算分别增长了 19% 和 20%。我们看到所有工作负载都在持续增长，新业务也好于预期。Dynamics 365 现在约占 Dynamics 总收入的 90%。
其他几家做CRM的，包括Salesforce都会面临压力。
Segment gross margin dollars increased 9% and 10% in constant currency and gross margin percentage decreased roughly 1 point year-over-year. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage decreased slightly driven by Office 365 as we scale our AI infrastructure. Operating expenses increased 5%, and operating income increased 12% and 13% in constant currency.
按固定汇率计算，业务部门毛利率分别增长 9% 和 10%，毛利率百分比同比下降约 1 个百分点。剔除会计估算变化的影响，毛利率百分比略有下降，主要是由于我们扩大了人工智能基础设施的规模，Office 365 推动了毛利率的下降。按固定汇率计算，运营支出增长 5%，运营收入分别增长 12% 和 13%。
Next, the Intelligent Cloud segment. Revenue was $28.5 billion, increasing 19% and 20% in constant currency, in line with expectations. Overall, server products and cloud services revenue grew 21% and 22% in constant currency. Azure and other cloud services revenue grew 29% and 30% in constant currency, in line with expectations and consistent with Q3 when adjusting for leap year. Azure growth included 8 points from AI services where demand remained higher than our available capacity. In June, we saw slightly lower-than-expected growth in a few European geos.
接下来是智能云业务部门。收入为 285 亿美元，按固定汇率计算分别增长 19% 和 20%，符合预期。总体而言，服务器产品和云服务收入按固定汇率计算分别增长 21% 和 22%。按固定汇率计算，Azure 和其他云服务收入分别增长了 29% 和 30%，符合预期，经闰年调整后与第三季度持平。Azure 的增长包括人工智能服务带来的 8 个百分点，因为人工智能服务的需求仍然高于我们的可用能力。6 月份，我们在欧洲一些地区看到了略低于预期的增长。
In our per-user business, the enterprise mobility and security installed base grew 10% to over 281 million seats with continued impact from moderated growth in seats sold outside the Microsoft 365 suite.
在按用户计算的业务方面，企业移动性和安全性安装基数增长了 10%，超过 2.81 亿个席位，其中 Microsoft 365 套件以外的销售席位增长趋缓继续产生影响。
Therefore, our Azure consumption business continues to grow faster than total Azure.
因此，我们的 Azure 消费业务的增长速度继续快于 Azure 总量的增长速度。
In our on-premises server business, revenue increased 2% and 3% in constant currency. Growth was driven by demand for our hybrid solutions although with slightly lower-than-expected transactional purchasing.
我们的内部部署服务器业务收入增长了 2%，按固定汇率计算增长了 3%。尽管交易型采购略低于预期，但混合型解决方案的需求推动了增长。
Enterprise and partner services revenue decreased 7% on a strong prior year comparable for Enterprise Support Services. Segment gross margin dollars increased 16% and gross margin percentage decreased roughly 2 points year-over-year. Excluding the impact of the change in accounting estimate, gross margin percentage decreased slightly driven by sales mix shift to Azure, partially offset by the improvement in Azure noted earlier, even with the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure. Operating expenses increased 5% and operating income grew 22% and 23% in constant currency.
企业和合作伙伴服务收入下降了 7%，原因是企业支持服务的上年可比收入强劲。分部毛利率同比增长 16%，毛利率百分比下降约 2 个百分点。剔除会计估算变化的影响，毛利率百分比略有下降，原因是销售组合转向了 Azure，而前面提到的 Azure 的改善部分抵消了这一影响，即使扩大我们的人工智能基础设施也是如此。运营支出增长 5%，运营收入增长 22%，按固定汇率计算增长 23%。
Now to More Personal Computing. Revenue was $15.9 billion, increasing 14% and 15% in constant currency, with 12 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Results were above expectations driven by Windows commercial and Search. The PC market was as expected and Windows OEM revenue increased 4% year-over-year.
现在来看看更多的个人计算业务。收入为 159 亿美元，增长了 14%，按固定汇率计算增长了 15%，其中收购 Activision 带来了 12 个百分点的净影响。在 Windows 商业和搜索业务的推动下，业绩超出预期。个人电脑市场一如预期，Windows OEM 收入同比增长 4%。
Windows commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 11% and 12% in constant currency, ahead of expectations due to higher in-period revenue recognition from the mix of contracts. Devices revenue decreased 11% and 9% in constant currency, roughly in line with expectations, as we remain focused on our higher margin premium products. While early days, we’re excited about the recent launch of our Copilot+ PCs.
按固定汇率计算，Windows 商业产品和云服务收入分别增长了 11% 和 12%，高于预期，原因是合同组合带来了更高的期内收入确认。设备收入按固定汇率计算分别下降了 11% 和 9%，基本符合预期，因为我们仍然专注于利润率较高的高端产品。虽然时间尚早，但我们对最近推出的 Copilot+ PC 感到兴奋。
Search and news advertising revenue ex-TAC increased 19%, ahead of expectations, primarily due to improved execution. Healthy volume growth was driven by Bing and Edge. And in Gaming, revenue increased 44% with 48 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Xbox content and services revenue increased 61%, slightly ahead of expectations, with 58 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Stronger-than-expected performance in first-party content was partially offset by third-party content performance. Xbox hardware revenue decreased 42% and 41% in constant currency.
不含 TAC 的搜索和新闻广告收入增长了 19%，超出预期，这主要得益于执行力的提高。必应（Bing）和边缘（Edge）推动了业务量的健康增长。游戏业务的收入增长了 44%，其中动视收购带来了 48 个百分点的净影响。Xbox 内容和服务收入增长 61%，略高于预期，其中动视收购带来的净影响为 58 个百分点。第一方内容的表现强于预期，但部分被第三方内容的表现所抵消。Xbox 硬件收入下降了 42%，按固定汇率计算下降了 41%。
微软始终缺少硬件系统的支持，长期是个问题。
Segment gross margin dollars increased 21%, with 10 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. Gross margin percentage increased roughly 3 points year-over-year primarily driven by sales mix shift to higher margin businesses. Operating expenses increased 43% with 41 points from the Activision acquisition. Operating income increased 5% and 6% in constant currency.
业务毛利率增长 21%，其中动视收购带来 10 个百分点的净影响。毛利率百分比同比增长约 3 个百分点，主要原因是销售组合向高毛利业务转移。运营支出增长 43%，其中动视收购带来 41 个百分点。营业收入增长 5%，按固定汇率计算增长 6%。
Now back to total company results. Capital expenditures including finance leases were $19 billion, in line with expectations, and cash paid for PP&E was $13.9 billion. Cloud and AI related spend represents nearly all of total capital expenditures. Within that, roughly half is for infrastructure needs where we continue to build and lease datacenters that will support monetization over the next 15 years and beyond. The remaining cloud and AI related spend is primarily for servers, both CPUs and GPUs, to serve customers based on demand signals. For the full fiscal year, the mix of our cloud and AI related spend was similar to Q4.
现在再来看看公司的总体业绩。包括融资租赁在内的资本支出为 190 亿美元，符合预期，为 PP&E 支付的现金为 139 亿美元。云计算和人工智能相关支出几乎占资本支出总额的全部。其中，大约一半用于满足基础设施需求，我们将继续建设和租赁数据中心，为未来 15 年及以后的货币化提供支持。其余与云计算和人工智能相关的支出主要用于服务器，包括 CPU 和 GPU，以便根据需求信号为客户提供服务。在整个财年，我们的云计算和人工智能相关支出组合与第四季度类似。
Cash flow from operations was $37.2 billion, up 29% driven by strong cloud billings and collections. Free cash flow was $23.3 billion, up 18% year-over-year, reflecting higher capital expenditures to support our cloud and AI offerings. For the full-year, cash flow from operations surpassed $100 billion for the first time, reaching $119 billion. This quarter, other income and expense was negative $675 million, more favorable than anticipated with lower-than-expected interest expense and higher-than-expected interest income. Our losses on investments accounted for under the equity method were as expected.
运营现金流为 372 亿美元，同比增长 29%，主要得益于强劲的云计费和收款。自由现金流为 233 亿美元，同比增长 18%，反映了为支持我们的云计算和人工智能产品而增加的资本支出。全年运营现金流首次突破 1000 亿美元，达到 1,190 亿美元。本季度，其他收入和支出为负 6.75 亿美元，由于利息支出低于预期，利息收入高于预期，因此比预期更为有利。按权益法核算的投资损失符合预期。
Our effective tax rate was approximately 19%, higher than anticipated due to a state tax law signed in June that was effective retroactively. And finally, we returned $8.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, bringing our total cash returned to shareholders to over $34 billion for the full fiscal year.
我们的实际税率约为 19%，高于预期，原因是 6 月份签署的州税法具有追溯效力。最后，我们通过分红和股票回购向股东返还了 84 亿美元，使整个财年返还给股东的现金总额超过了 340 亿美元。
2023年6月-2024年6月的数据显示，苹果回购了830亿，占市值的2.8%；Google是630亿，占市值的2.9%；Meta250亿，占市值的2.0%；微软200亿，占市值的0.6%，苹果和Google的排在最前面，收敛能力最强的两个企业，Google看着是因为商业模式，搜索和广告是个好业务。
Now, moving to our outlook. My commentary for both the full-year and next quarter is on a U.S. dollar basis unless specifically noted otherwise. Let me start with some full year commentary for FY2025.
现在谈谈我们的展望。除非另有特别说明，我对全年和下一季度的评论都是以美元为基础的。首先，请允许我对 2025 财年全年进行一些评论。
First, FX. Assuming current rates remain stable, we expect FX to have no meaningful impact to full-year revenue, COGS, or operating expense growth. Next, we continue to expect double-digit revenue and operating income growth as we focus on delivering differentiated value for our customers. To meet the growing demand signal for our AI and cloud products, we will scale our infrastructure investments with FY2025 capital expenditures expected to be higher than FY2024.
首先是外汇。假设目前的汇率保持稳定，我们预计外汇不会对全年的收入、商品及服务费用或营业费用增长产生有意义的影响。其次，由于我们专注于为客户提供差异化的价值，我们继续预计收入和营业收入将实现两位数的增长。为了满足人工智能和云产品日益增长的需求信号，我们将扩大基础设施投资规模，预计 2025 财年的资本支出将高于 2024 财年。
微软、Google实现两位数的增长看着都比苹果容易，但都没有苹果那样扎实的地基。
As a reminder, these expenditures are dependent on demand signals and adoption of our services that will be managed through the year. As scaling these investments drives growth in COGS, we will remain disciplined on operating expense management. Therefore, we expect FY2025 OpEx growth to be in the single digits. And given our focused commitment to managing at the operating margin level, we still expect FY2025 operating margins to be down only about one point year-over-year. And finally, we expect our FY2025 effective tax rate to be around 19%.
需要提醒的是，这些支出取决于需求信号和我们服务的采用情况，我们将在这一年中加以管理。随着这些投资的扩大推动了 COGS 的增长，我们将继续严格管理运营支出。因此，我们预计 2025 财年的运营支出增长率将为个位数。鉴于我们专注于运营利润率的管理，我们仍然预计 2025 财年的运营利润率同比仅下降一个百分点左右。最后，我们预计 2025 财年的实际税率约为 19%。
华尔街盯着紧是有价值的。
Now, to the outlook for our first quarter. Based on current rates, we expect FX to decrease total revenue and segment level revenue growth by less than one point. We expect FX to decrease COGS growth by less than one point and to have no meaningful impact to operating expense growth.
现在来谈谈第一季度的展望。根据目前的汇率，我们预计外汇将使总收入和分部收入增长减少不到一个百分点。我们预计，外汇将使 COGS 的增长减少不到一个百分点，并且不会对运营费用的增长产生有意义的影响。
In commercial bookings, increased long-term commitments to our platform and strong execution across core annuity sales motions should drive healthy growth on a growing expiry base. As a reminder, larger long-term Azure contracts, which are more unpredictable in their timing, can drive increased quarterly volatility in our bookings growth rate.
在商业预订方面，对我们平台的长期承诺增加以及核心年金销售动议的有力执行，应能在不断增长的到期基础上推动健康增长。需要提醒的是，较大的长期 Azure 合同在时间上更难以预测，这可能会增加我们预订增长率的季度波动性。
Microsoft Cloud gross margin percentage should be roughly 70%, down year-over-year driven by the impact of scaling our AI infrastructure. We expect capital expenditures to increase on a sequential basis given our cloud and AI demand, as well as existing AI capacity constraints. As a reminder, there can be quarterly spend variability from cloud infrastructure buildouts and the timing of delivery of finance leases.
受人工智能基础设施规模扩大的影响，微软云计算的毛利率应约为 70%，同比有所下降。考虑到我们的云计算和人工智能需求，以及现有的人工智能产能限制，我们预计资本支出将连续增长。需要提醒的是，云计算基础设施的建设和融资租赁的交付时间可能会导致季度支出的变化。
Next to segment guidance. In Productivity and Business Processes, we expect revenue to grow between 10% and 11% in constant currency, or US$20.3 to US$20.6 billion. In Office Commercial, revenue growth will again be driven by Office 365 with seat growth across customer segments and ARPU growth through E5 and Copilot for Microsoft 365. We expect Office 365 revenue growth to be approximately 14% in constant currency. In our on-premises business, we expect revenue to decline in the mid to high-teens.
接下来是分部指导。在生产力和业务流程方面，我们预计按固定汇率计算，收入将增长 10%至 11%，即 203 亿至 206 亿美元。在 Office Commercial 方面，收入增长将再次由 Office 365 驱动，各客户细分市场的座位数都将增长，E5 和 Copilot for Microsoft 365 的 ARPU 也将增长。我们预计，按固定汇率计算，Office 365 的收入增长率约为 14%。在内部部署业务方面，我们预计收入将出现 10%到 20%的下降。
In Office consumer, we expect revenue growth in the low to mid-single digits, driven by Microsoft 365 subscriptions. For LinkedIn, we expect revenue growth in the high single digits driven by continued growth across all businesses. And in Dynamics, we expect revenue growth in the low to mid-teens driven by Dynamics 365.
在 Microsoft 365 订阅的推动下，我们预计 Office 消费者业务的收入将实现中低位数增长。对于 LinkedIn，我们预计在所有业务持续增长的推动下，收入将实现高个位数增长。在 Dynamics 365 的推动下，我们预计 Dynamics 365 的收入将实现中低位十位数的增长。
For Intelligent Cloud we expect revenue to grow between 18% and 20% in constant currency, or US$28.6 billion to US$28.9 billion. Revenue will continue to be driven by Azure which, as a reminder, can have quarterly variability primarily from our per-user business and in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts.
在智能云方面，按固定汇率计算，我们预计收入将增长 18% 至 20%，即 286 亿美元至 289 亿美元。收入将继续由 Azure 驱动，需要提醒的是，Azure 的季度变化主要来自我们的按用户业务以及根据合同组合进行的期内收入确认。
In Azure, we expect Q1 revenue growth to be 28% to 29% in constant currency. Growth will continue to be driven by our consumption business, inclusive of AI, which is growing faster than total Azure. We expect the consumption trends from Q4 to continue through the first half of the year. This includes both AI demand impacted by capacity constraints and non-AI growth trends similar to June. Growth in our per-user business will continue to moderate. And in H2, we expect Azure growth to accelerate as our capital investments create an increase in available AI capacity to serve more of the growing demand.
在 Azure 方面，我们预计按固定汇率计算，第一季度的收入增长率为 28% 至 29%。增长将继续由我们的消费业务（包括人工智能）驱动，其增长速度高于 Azure 总收入的增长速度。我们预计第四季度的消费趋势将持续到今年上半年。这既包括受容量限制影响的人工智能需求，也包括与 6 月份类似的非人工智能增长趋势。按用户计算的业务增长将继续放缓。而在下半年，我们预计 Azure 的增长将加快，因为我们的资本投资将增加可用的人工智能容量，以满足更多不断增长的需求。
趋势刚开始，原来的硬件和软件都需要全面更新。
In our on-premises server business, we expect revenue to decline in the low single digits as continued hybrid demand will be more than offset by lower transactional purchasing. And in Enterprise and partner services, revenue should decline in the low single digits.
在内部部署服务器业务方面，我们预计收入将出现较低的个位数下降，因为持续的混合型需求将被较低的交易型采购所抵消。在企业和合作伙伴服务方面，收入将出现较低的个位数下降。
In More Personal Computing, we expect revenue to grow between 9% and 12% in constant currency, or US$14.9 billion to US$15.3 billion. Windows OEM revenue growth should be relatively flat, roughly in line with the PC market.
在更多个人计算领域，我们预计按固定汇率计算，收入将增长 9% 至 12%，即 149 亿至 153 亿美元。Windows OEM 的收入增长将相对平稳，与个人电脑市场基本持平。
In Windows commercial products and cloud services, customer demand for Microsoft 365 and our advanced security solutions should drive revenue growth in the mid-single digits. As a reminder, our quarterly revenue growth can have variability primarily from in-period revenue recognition depending on the mix of contracts.
在 Windows 商业产品和云服务方面，客户对 Microsoft 365 和我们的高级安全解决方案的需求将推动收入实现中等个位数增长。需要提醒的是，我们的季度收入增长可能会因合同组合的不同而有所变化，这主要取决于当期收入的确认情况。
In Devices, revenue growth should be in the low to mid-single digits. Search and news advertising ex-TAC revenue growth should be in the mid to high-teens. This will be higher than overall Search and news advertising revenue growth, which we expect to be in the low single digits.
设备部门的收入增长应为中低个位数。搜索和新闻广告（不含 TAC）的收入增长率应为中位数到高位数。这将高于整体搜索和新闻广告收入的增长，我们预计整体搜索和新闻广告收入的增长为低个位数。
最大的企业同样需要差异化，目前还是Google的领地，目标不明确很可能只是折腾。
And in Gaming, we expect revenue growth in the mid-30s, including approximately 40 points of net impact from the Activision acquisition. We expect Xbox content and services revenue growth in the low to mid-50s, driven by the net impact from the Activision acquisition. Hardware revenue will again decline year-over-year.
在游戏业务方面，我们预计收入增长在 30% 左右，其中包括收购动视带来的约 40 个百分点的净影响。在动视收购带来的净影响的推动下，我们预计 Xbox 内容和服务的收入增长率将在 50%上下。硬件收入将再次同比下降。
苹果的优势更明显。
Now back to company guidance. We expect COGS between US$19.95 billion to US$20.15 billion, including approximately $700 million from purchase accounting, integration, and transaction-related costs from the Activision acquisition.
现在回到公司指导。我们预计 COGS 在 199.5 亿美元到 201.5 亿美元之间，其中包括收购 Activision 产生的约 7 亿美元的购买会计、整合和交易相关成本。
We expect operating expense of US$15.2 billion to US$15.3 billion, including approximately $200 million from purchase accounting, integration, and transaction-related costs from the Activision acquisition.
我们预计运营支出为 152 亿至 153 亿美元，其中包括收购 Activision 产生的约 2 亿美元的购买会计、整合和交易相关成本。
Other income and expense should be roughly negative $650 million driven by losses on investments accounted for under the equity method as interest income will be mostly offset by interest expense. As a reminder, we are required to recognize gains or losses on our equity investments, which can increase quarterly volatility. We expect our Q1 effective tax rate to be approximately 19%.
由于利息收入将被利息支出大部分抵消，按权益法核算的投资亏损将导致其他收入和支出出现大约 6.5 亿美元的负值。需要提醒的是，我们需要确认股权投资的收益或亏损，这可能会增加季度波动性。我们预计第一季度的实际税率约为 19%。
In closing, we remain focused on delivering innovations that matter to our global customers of every size. That focus extends to delivering on our financial commitments as well. We delivered operating margin growth of nearly three points year-over-year even as we accelerated our AI investments, completed the Activision acquisition, and had a headwind from the change of useful lives last year. So, as we begin FY2025, we will continue to invest in the cloud and AI opportunity ahead aligned, and if needed adjusted, to the demand signals we see. We are committed to growing our leadership across our commercial cloud and within that, the AI platform, and we feel well positioned as we start FY2025.
最后，我们将继续专注于为全球各种规模的客户提供重要的创新产品。这种专注也延伸到了履行我们的财务承诺。我们的营业利润率同比增长了近三个百分点，即使在我们加快人工智能投资、完成动视收购，以及去年使用寿命变更带来的不利因素的情况下也是如此。因此，在 2025 财年开始之际，我们将继续投资于云计算和人工智能，并根据我们看到的需求信号进行调整。我们致力于扩大我们在商业云和人工智能平台方面的领先地位，在 2025 财年伊始，我们认为自己已经做好了充分准备。
乔布斯不会这么说，要么收敛要么碎片化。
With that, let's go to Q&A, Brett.
下面进入问答环节，布雷特。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Amy. We'll now move over to Q&A. Out of respect for others on the call, we request that participants please only ask one question. Operator, can you please repeat your instructions?
谢谢，艾米。现在进入问答环节。出于对电话会议中其他人的尊重，我们要求与会者只提一个问题。接线员，请重复一遍您的指令。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator 操作员
[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Keith Weiss with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed.
[第一个问题来自摩根士丹利的基思-魏斯。请继续
Keith Weiss 基思-魏斯
Excellent. Thank you, guys for taking the question and congratulations on another great quarter and really solid overall fiscal year. Right now, there's a industry debate raging around the CapEx requirements around Generative AI and whether the monetization is actually going to match with that. And I think the question for you guys, from a Microsoft perspective, is CapEx still an appropriate leading indicator for cloud growth? Or does the shift in gross margin profile change that equation? Or said another way, maybe can you give us a little bit more help in understanding the timing between the CapEx investments and the yield on those investments? Thank you.
非常好。感谢各位接受提问，祝贺你们又取得了一个不错的季度，整个财年也非常稳健。现在，业界正在围绕生成式人工智能所需的资本支出以及货币化是否与之相匹配展开讨论。我认为，从微软的角度来看，你们面临的问题是，资本支出是否仍然是云计算增长的适当领先指标？或者说，毛利率的变化是否会改变这一等式？或者换一种说法，也许你们能给我们提供更多帮助，帮助我们理解资本支出投资和这些投资收益之间的时间关系？谢谢。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Thank you, Keith. Let me start, and then Amy can add to this. I think, I would say we primarily start right now from the demand side. What I mean by that is what's the product – shape of the product portfolio, what we learned even from the cloud transition, which, as you know, Keith, was similar in the sense it was both a knowledge-intensive and a capital-intensive transition. We needed to have the product portfolio where there was the right mix of, I'll call it, infrastructure meters as well as SaaS applications. So that's the first thing that we are looking at.
谢谢，Keith。让我先开始，然后Amy可以补充。我认为，我会说我们现在主要从需求侧开始。我的意思是，产品是什么——产品组合的形状，我们甚至从云转型中学到了什么，正如你所知道的，Keith，这在某种程度上是相似的，因为它既是知识密集型又是资本密集型的转型。我们需要有产品组合，其中有一种正确的混合，我会称之为基础设施仪表以及SaaS应用程序。所以这是我们首先考虑的事情。
算力又回到服务器端，这一次切换会提升软硬件一体化的程度，明摆着更有效率，关键是谁能最终胜出。
And how is that value landing with customers and what's the growth rate. So when I think about what's happening with M365 Copilot as perhaps the best Office 365 or M365 suite we have had, the fact that we're getting recurring customers, so our customers coming back buying more seats. So GitHub Copilot now being bigger than even GitHub when we bought it.
客户对价值的接受程度如何，以及增长率是多少。所以当我想到M365 Copilot可能是我们拥有的最好的Office 365或M365套件时，我们正在获得回头客，也就是说，我们的客户回来购买更多的座位。所以GitHub Copilot现在比我们收购时的GitHub还要大。
What's happening in the contact center with Dynamics. So I would say – and obviously, the Azure AI growth, that's the first place we look at. That then drives bulk of the CapEx spend, basically, that's the demand signal because you got to remember, even in the capital spend, there is land and there is data center build, but 60-plus percent is the kit, that only will be bought for inferencing and everything else if there is demand signal, right? So that's, I think, the key way to think about capital cycle even.
Dynamics 在联络中心发生了什么。所以我想说，很明显，Azure AI 的增长是我们首先关注的。基本上，这就是需求信号，因为你必须记住，即使在资本支出中，也有土地和数据中心建设，但 60% 以上是工具包，只有在有需求信号的情况下，才会购买用于推理和其他的东西，对吗？因此，我认为这是考虑资本循环的关键方法。
The asset, as Amy said, is a long-term asset, which is land and the data center, which, by the way, we don't even construct things fully, we can even have things which are semi-constructed, we call [cold] (ph) shelves and so on. So we know how to manage our CapEx spend to build out a long-term asset and a lot of the hydration of the kit happens when we have the demand signal.
正如艾米所说，资产是一种长期资产，即土地和数据中心，顺便说一下，我们甚至不完全建造数据中心，我们甚至可以拥有半成品，我们称之为[冷]（音）货架等。因此，我们知道如何管理我们的资本支出，以建设长期资产。
There is definitely spend for training. Even there, of course, we will only be scaling training as we see the demand accrue in any given period in time. So I would say it's more important to manage, to capture the opportunity with the right product portfolio that's driving value. And on that front, I feel good about the breadth of Microsoft offering, whether it's in consumer side, whether it's on commercial per seat side or on the consumption meters, that's, I think, the fundamental driver.
当然，培训上肯定有支出。即使在这方面，我们只有在看到任何给定时期内需求累积时才会扩大培训规模。所以我会说是更重要的，用正确的产品组合来抓住机会，这个产品组合正在创造价值。在这方面，我对微软提供的广度感觉良好，无论是在消费者方面，还是在商业按座位收费方面，或是在消费计量器方面，我认为这是根本的驱动因素。
Gen AI受益最大的还是有存量业务的企业，微软是其中之一，苹果和Goolge的机会看上更大。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
And Keith, I do think – and I really do appreciate how you phrased the question as well because I think the timing and some of the questions you all have had really led to how we were talking even about capital expense in our comments – in my comments today. Being able to maybe share a little more about that when we talked about roughly half of FY2024's total capital expense as well as half of Q4's expense, it's really on land and build and finance leases, and those things really will be monetized over 15 years and beyond.
基思，我确实认为--我也非常欣赏你对问题的措辞，因为我认为时间安排和你们提出的一些问题确实导致了我们在我们的评论中--在我今天的评论中--甚至谈到了资本支出。当我们谈到 2024 财年总资本支出的大约一半以及第四季度支出的一半时，我们或许可以分享更多关于这一点的信息，这实际上是关于土地、建设和融资租赁的支出，这些支出将在 15 年甚至更长的时间内实现货币化。
NVIDIA的意思是每5年就需要更新，微软认为是15年，这样的说法没什么意义，华尔街的提醒更有价值，根据当前的需求增加资本支出。
And they're incredibly flexible because we've built a consistent architecture first with the Commercial Cloud and second with the Azure stack for AI, regardless of whether the demand at the platform layer or at the app layer or through third parties and partners or, frankly, our first-party SaaS, it uses the same infrastructure. So it's long-lived flexible assets.
它们的灵活性令人难以置信，因为我们已经建立了一个一致的架构，首先是商业云，其次是用于人工智能的 Azure 堆栈，无论需求是在平台层还是在应用层，还是通过第三方和合作伙伴，或者坦率地说，我们的第一方 SaaS，都使用相同的基础设施。因此，它是长寿命的灵活资产。
And if you think about it, that way, you can see what we're doing and focused on is building out this network in parallel across the globe. Because when we did this last transition, the first transition to the Cloud, which seems a long time ago sometimes, it rolled out quite differently. We rolled out more geo by geo and this one because we have demand on a global basis. We are doing it on a global basis, which is important. We have large customers in every geo. And so hopefully, with that sort of shape of our capital expense, it helps people see how much of that is sort of near-term monetization driver as well as a much longer duration.
如果你仔细想想，就会发现我们正在做的事情就是在全球范围内并行建设这个网络。因为当我们进行上一次过渡时，也就是向云技术的第一次过渡，有时似乎是很久以前的事了，它的推出方式非常不同。我们更多地是按地理区域进行部署，而这次是因为我们有全球需求。我们在全球范围内开展业务，这一点很重要。我们在每个地区都有大客户。因此，我们希望通过这种资本支出的形式，帮助人们了解其中有多少是短期货币化驱动因素，以及更长的持续时间。
Keith Weiss 基思-魏斯
That's super helpful. Thank you very much.
真是帮了大忙。非常感谢。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Keith. Operator, next question please.
谢谢，基思。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
And the next question comes from the line of Mark Moerdler with Bernstein Research. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自伯恩斯坦研究公司的马克-莫德勒（Mark Moerdler）。请继续。
Mark Moerdler 马克-莫尔德勒
Thank you very much. Thank you for taking the question. And congrats on a strong year. GenAI has been a bit of rollercoaster of a tech over the last year with periods of acceleration, high expectations and the expectations drop as reality kicked in. With Azure growth we've seen this quarter and O365 Commercial, not yet fully visible in numbers even though Amy, you gave us a lot of color on it. Two quick parts to the question. Satya, how should we think about what it's going to take for GenAI to become more real across the industry and for it to become more visible within your SaaS offerings? And Amy, with Cloud, it took time for margins to improve. It looks like with AI, it's happening quicker. Can you give us a sense of how you think about the margin impact near-term and long-term from all the investment on AI? Thank you.
非常感谢。感谢您接受提问。祝贺你取得了强劲的业绩。在过去的一年里，GenAI 的技术发展有点像过山车，既有加速期，又有高期望值，而随着现实的到来，期望值又有所下降。本季度，我们看到 Azure 和 O365 Commercial 的增长，虽然艾米（Amy）你给了我们很多这方面的信息，但在数字上还没有完全显现出来。问题有两部分。萨提亚，我们应该如何看待 GenAI 在整个行业中变得更加真实，以及在你们的 SaaS 产品中变得更加明显？艾米，对于云计算，利润率的提高需要时间。看起来，人工智能的发展速度更快。你能告诉我们，你如何看待所有人工智能投资对近期和长期利润率的影响吗？谢谢。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Yes. Thanks again, Mark, for the question. So to me, look, at the end of the day, GenAI is just software. So it is really translating into fundamentally growth on what has been our M365 SaaS offering with a newer offering that is the Copilot SaaS offering, which today is on a growth rate that's faster than any other previous generation of software we launched as a suite in M365. That's, I think, the best way to describe it. I mean the numbers I think we shared even this quarter are indicative of this, Mark. So if you look at it, we have both the landing of the seats itself quarter-over-quarter that is growing 60%, right? That's a pretty good healthy sign.
是的，再次感谢马克的提问。对我来说，归根结底，GenAI 只是一个软件。因此，它真正从根本上转化为我们的M365 SaaS产品与更新的Copilot SaaS产品的增长，如今Copilot SaaS产品的增长速度比我们在M365中作为套件推出的任何其他前代软件都要快。我认为，这是描述它的最佳方式。我认为，我们在本季度分享的数据就能说明这一点，马克。所以，如果你看一下，我们的座位数每季度都增长了 60%，对吗？这是一个非常好的健康迹象。
这个看法很清晰，Gen AI让原来的软件更有效率。
The most healthy sign for me is the fact that customers are coming back there. That is the same customers with whom we landed the seats coming back and buying more seats. And then the number of customers with 10,000-plus seats doubled, right? It's 2x quarter-over-quarter. That, to me, is a healthy SaaS core business. And on top of that, some of the things that Amy shared around Dynamic. That's another exciting place for us, which is one, we are gaining share. We are – Dynamics with the GenAI built-in is sort of really biz app, it's probably the category that gets completely transformed with GenAI. Contact centers being a great example. We ourselves are on course to save hundreds of millions of dollars in our own customer support and contact center operations. I think we can drive that value to our customers.
对我来说，最健康的迹象就是客户又回来了。就是说，与我们签订了座位合同的那些客户又回来购买了更多的座位。拥有 1 万多个座位的客户数量翻了一番，对吗？季度间增长了 2 倍。在我看来，这就是一个健康的 SaaS 核心业务。除此之外，艾米还分享了一些关于动态业务的情况。这是我们另一个令人兴奋的地方，其一，我们正在获得份额。我们--内置 GenAI 的 Dynamics 是一种真正的商业应用程序，它可能是通过 GenAI 得到彻底改变的类别。联络中心就是一个很好的例子。我们正在为自己的客户支持和联络中心运营节省数亿美元。我认为，我们可以为客户带来这种价值。
微软是有钱有技术的大企业，按原来的轨迹已经被抢走的生意，比如CRM，很难再抢回来，有钱也不知道怎么搞，这回又有机会了。
And then on the Azure side, you see the numbers very clearly. In fact, I think last quarter is when we started giving you that. You saw an acceleration of that this quarter. One of the other pieces, Mark, is AI doesn't sit on its own, right? So it's just for – we have a concept of design wins in Azure. So in fact, 50% of the folks who are using Azure AI are also using a data meter. That's very exciting to us because the most important thing in Azure is to win workloads in the enterprise. And that is starting to happen. And these are generational things once they get going with you. So that's, I think, how we think about it at least when I look at what's happening on our demand side.
然后，在 Azure 方面，你可以非常清楚地看到数字。事实上，我认为上个季度我们就已经开始提供这些数据了。本季度你看到了这一数字的加速增长。还有一点，马克，人工智能不是独立存在的，对吗？所以它只是为了--我们在 Azure 中有一个设计获胜的概念。事实上，50% 使用 Azure AI 的人也在使用数据表。这让我们非常兴奋，因为在 Azure 中最重要的事情就是在企业中赢得工作负载。而这一切正在开始发生。而这些都是一代人的事情，一旦他们开始使用你。因此，我认为，至少当我看到需求方面的情况时，我们是这样考虑的。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
And, Mark, to answer the second half of your question on margin improvement, looking different than it did through the last cloud cycle. That's primarily for a reason I've mentioned a couple of times. We have a consistent platform. So because we're building to one Azure AI stack, we don't have to have multiple infrastructure investments. We're making one. We're using that internally first-party, and that's what we're using with customers to build on as well as ISVs. So it does, in fact, make margins start off better and obviously scale consistently.
马克，回答你关于利润率改善的后半部分问题，我们的利润率与上一轮云计算周期相比有所不同。这主要是因为我多次提到的一个原因。我们有一个统一的平台。因此，由于我们正在构建一个 Azure AI 堆栈，我们不必进行多项基础设施投资。我们只做一个。我们在内部第一方使用该平台，我们也在客户和 ISV 上使用该平台。因此，事实上，它确实能让利润率在开始时更好，而且显然能持续扩展。
Mark Moerdler 马克-莫尔德勒
Thank you. 谢谢。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Mark. Operator, next question please.
谢谢，马克。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Kash Rangan with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自高盛集团的 Kash Rangan。请继续
Kasthuri Rangan 卡斯图里-兰甘
Hi. Thank you very much and congrats on a great year – fiscal year ending. A question for you, Amy. When you look at the CapEx, how do you ring efficiencies out of the CapEx? You've disclosed that 50% of the infrastructure, the other 50% tech, is very useful. So in other words, do you have to keep growing CapEx at these elevated rates? Or could you slow down CapEx and still get that consistent revenue growth rate in your Azure and Generative AI? That's the main question in my mind? Thank you so much.
嗨，非常感谢你，祝贺你度过了一个美好的财政年度。问你一个问题，艾米。当你看到资本支出时，你是如何从资本支出中提高效率的？你曾透露，50% 的基础设施和另外 50% 的技术都非常有用。那么，换句话说，你是否必须继续以这种较高的速度增加资本支出？或者说，你是否可以放慢资本支出的增长速度，但仍能保持 Azure 和生成式人工智能（Generative AI）的持续收入增长率？这是我的主要疑问。非常感谢。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thanks, Kash. That's a very good question. There's really two pieces, I think, as I heard your question that I would reflect on. The first is, could we see sort of consistent revenue growth without maybe what you would say is more of this sort of elevated capital expense number or something that continues to accelerate.
谢谢，卡什。这是一个非常好的问题。听了你的问题，我觉得有两点值得反思。第一个问题是，如果没有你所说的资本支出数字的上升或持续加速，我们能否看到收入的持续增长？
And the answer to that is yes because there's two different pieces, right? You're seeing half of this go toward long-term builds that Satya mentioned, the pace at which we fill those builds with CPUs or GPUs will be demand-driven. And so if we see differences in demand signal, we can throttle that investment on the CPU side, which we've done for I guess, a long time at this point, as I reflect, and we'll use all that same learning and demand signal understand to do the same thing on the GPU side. And so you're right that you could see relatively consistent revenue patterns and yet see these inconsistencies and capital spend quarter-to-quarter.
答案是肯定的，因为这是两个不同的部分，对吗？萨提亚提到，其中有一半将用于长期建设，而我们用 CPU 或 GPU 填充这些建设的速度将由需求驱动。因此，如果我们看到需求信号的差异，我们就可以控制 CPU 方面的投资，我想在这一点上我们已经做了很长时间了，正如我所反映的那样，我们将利用所有相同的学习和需求信号理解，在 GPU 方面做同样的事情。你说得没错，你可以看到相对一致的收入模式，但也可以看到季度与季度之间的不一致和资本支出。
The other thing, I would note, Kash, is you'll also notice there's a growing distinction between our CapEx number, and on occasion, the cash that we pay for PP&E and you're going to start to see that more often in this period because it happens when we use leases. Leases sort of show up all at once. And so you'll see a little bit more volatility. I've mentioned it back in my comments before, but I mentioned it again just because you're starting to see that distinction in my comments and hopefully that's helpful context.
另外，我想指出的是，Kash，你也会注意到我们的资本支出数字和我们支付给PP&E的现金之间的区别越来越大，有时你会开始看到这种情况更频繁地出现，因为我们使用租赁。租赁通常一次性显示出来。所以你可能会看到更多的波动性。我在之前的评论中提到过这一点，但我再次提到，只是因为你开始在我的评论中看到这种区别，希望这是一个有帮助的背景。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Just one other thing, Amy, if I wanted to add. I think as people think about capital spend, I think it's important to separate out leases from build. And when it comes to build, I think it's important for us to think about – we think about it in terms of what's the total percentage of cost that goes into each line item, land which obviously has a very different duration and a very different lead time. So those are the other two considerations. We think about lead time and duration of the asset. Land, network, construction, the system or the kit and then the ongoing cost. And so if you think about it that way, then you know how to even adjust, if you will, the capital spend based on demand signal.
艾米，我还想补充一点。我认为，当人们考虑资本支出时，将租赁和建设分开是很重要的。说到建设，我认为重要的是我们要考虑到--我们要考虑到每个细分项目的总成本比例是多少，土地显然有非常不同的期限和非常不同的准备时间。这就是另外两个考虑因素。我们考虑的是资产的准备时间和持续时间。土地、网络、建筑、系统或套件，然后是持续成本。因此，如果这样考虑，你就知道如何根据需求信号调整资本支出。
Kasthuri Rangan 卡斯图里-兰甘
Thank you. It was triggered by the jump in CapEx. And as Amy pointed out, you're guiding to accelerating Azure revenue growth rate, which, I guess, follows the CapEx surge. Thank you so much once again.
谢谢。这是由资本支出激增引发的。正如艾米（Amy）所指出的，你们正在引导加速 Azure 收入的增长速度，我想，这也是资本支出激增之后的结果。再次感谢您。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Kash. Operator, next question please.
谢谢，卡什。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Brent Thill with Jefferies. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。请继续。
Brent Thill 布伦特-蒂尔
Thanks. Amy, the magnitude to beat this quarter was a little lower than we've seen in the past. Was there anything unusual on sales cycle that close rates that you saw? Thanks.
谢谢。艾米，本季度的业绩增长幅度比我们过去看到的要低一些。在销售周期和成交率方面有什么不寻常的地方吗？谢谢。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thanks, Brent. Actually, no. As I was talking on the quarter, I mean Commercial bookings were much better than we expected going into the quarter. Commitments were very good execution across both the core sort of annuity renewal motion was good, as expected, the larger long-term commitments were better than we expected. So Brent, I would not say there was anything really unusual in how I thought about what we saw in our commercial execution through the quarter.
谢谢，布伦特。事实上，没有。在谈到本季度的情况时，我的意思是商业预订比我们进入本季度时预期的要好得多。核心的年金续保活动执行得非常好，正如预期的那样，大型的长期承保活动也比我们预期的要好。因此，布伦特，我认为本季度的商业执行并没有什么特别之处。
Brent Thill 布伦特-蒂尔
Great. Thank you. 太好了谢谢
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Brent. Operator, next question please.
谢谢，布伦特。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Karl Keirstead with UBS. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自瑞银集团的 Karl Keirstead。请继续。
Karl Keirstead 卡尔-基尔斯泰德
Okay. Great. So maybe I'll direct this to Amy. Amy, I know when you set your Azure guidance, you're always looking to meet or beat the high-end. The 30% you put up in the June quarter, amazing number given the scale of Azure, but it did come in at the low end of your range. And I'd just love for you to maybe elaborate on the delta. I guess as I reflect on what you said in your comments. There's two things that I heard you say. One, it sounded like there's persistent capacity constraints that you think might get alleviated in the second half? And then secondly, you mentioned perhaps some modest softness in Europe. I presume that's a little bit more economic rather than Azure specific. Is that the right way to frame the performance in the quarter? Thank you.
好的。太好了。那我可能要问艾米了。艾米，我知道当你设定Azure的指导时，你总是希望达到或超越高端。你在6月份的季度提出的30%，考虑到Azure的规模，这是一个惊人的数字，但它确实达到了你范围的低端。我只是想听听你对这个差距的阐述。我想当我反思你在评论中所说的。我听到你说了两件事。第一，听起来有持续的产能限制，你认为在下半年可能会缓解？第二，你提到了欧洲可能有一些适度的疲软。我猜这更多的是经济问题，而不是Azure特有的。是这样理解这个季度的表现吗？谢谢。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thanks, Karl. Yes, that's exactly right. Maybe I'll just repeat it, just so people can hear it in my words as well to that 30% to 31% guide for Q4 and coming in at the lower end of 30%. You're exactly right. The distinguishing between being at the higher end or at the lower end, really was some softness we saw in a few European geos on non-AI consumption really made the difference in that number. And we've assumed that going forward into H1 inclusive of my guide 28% to 29% going forward. And then let me separate which was your larger point, which is what are the other factors you see ongoing. Number one, you're right, capacity constraints, particularly on AI and Azure will remain in Q4 and will remain in H1. So hopefully, that's helpful.
谢谢，卡尔。是的，完全正确。也许我可以重复一下，让大家也能听到我说的第四季度 30% 至 31% 的指导目标，以及 30% 的下限。你说得很对。区分是在高端还是在低端，实际上是我们在一些欧洲地区看到的非人工智能消费的疲软，这确实是造成这一数字差异的原因。我们已经假定，在我的指导下，上半年的增长率为 28% 至 29%。然后，让我来谈谈你更关心的问题，即你认为还有哪些其他因素正在发生。第一，你说得对，产能限制，尤其是人工智能和 Azure 的产能限制，在第四季度和上半年都将继续存在。希望这对你有所帮助。
Karl Keirstead 卡尔-基尔斯泰德
Yes. Thank you, Amy. 是的，谢谢你，艾米。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Karl. Operator, next question, please.
谢谢，卡尔。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Brad Zelnick with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自德意志银行的 Brad Zelnick。请继续
Brad Zelnick 布拉德-泽尔尼克
Great. Thank you very much. Amy, with Azure demand, once again greater than available capacity, I appreciate the CapEx investments and the build-out and acceleration you expect in the back half. But as we think about Cloud capacity and AI services specifically, can you talk about both the near-term and long-term strategy around the AI partnerships that you're signing with the likes of Oracle and Cohere, for example? Thank you.
太好了非常感谢。艾米，由于Azure的需求再次超过了可用容量，我很欣赏你预计在下半年进行的资本支出投资、建设和加速。但是，当我们具体考虑云容量和人工智能服务时，你能否谈谈你与甲骨文（Oracle）和 Cohere 等公司签订的人工智能合作协议的近期和长期战略？谢谢。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thanks, Brad. Maybe separate a couple of things. We are – and we've talked about now for quite a few quarters, we are constrained on AI capacity. And because of that, actually, we've, to your point, have signed up with third parties to help us as we are behind with some leases on AI capacity. We've done that with partners who are happy to help us extend the Azure platform, to be able to serve this Azure AI demand. And you do see us investing quite a bit as we've talked about in builds so that we can get back in a more balanced place.
谢谢，布拉德。也许可以分开说几件事。我们--我们已经谈了好几个季度了，我们在人工智能能力方面受到了限制。正因为如此，实际上，我们已经与第三方签约，帮助我们解决人工智能产能落后的问题。我们已经与合作伙伴签订了协议，他们很乐意帮助我们扩展 Azure 平台，以满足 Azure 的人工智能需求。正如我们在构建中谈到的那样，我们确实进行了大量投资，以便我们能够回到一个更加平衡的位置。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Yes. I mean, to me, it's no different than leases that we would have done in the past. These – you could even say sometimes buying from Oracle, maybe even more efficient leases because they're even shorter date.
是的，我的意思是，对我来说，这和我们过去做的租赁没什么不同。这些--你甚至可以说，有时从甲骨文公司购买，也许是更有效的租赁，因为它们的日期更短。
Brad Zelnick 布拉德-泽尔尼克
Excellent. Thanks for the color.
好极了。谢谢你的颜色。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Brad. Operator, next question please.
谢谢，布拉德。接线员，请回答下一个问题。
Operator 操作员
The next question comes from the line of Mark Murphy with JPMorgan. Please proceed.
下一个问题来自摩根大通的马克-墨菲。请继续。
Mark Murphy 马克-墨菲
Thank you very much. With a couple of quarters of Copilot for M365 availability under your belt now, how are you assessing the capability of Copilots to replicate the productivity gains that they've created for developers, which seem to be very high and to do something similar for the broader population of knowledge workers? For instance, you're mentioning the 10,000 feet deals, the repeat purchases, is it possible to eventually see Copilot penetration rate equally high in office as they will be in GitHub?
非常感谢。Copilot for M365 的可用性已经有几个季度了，你如何评估 Copilot 复制其为开发人员创造的生产率收益（似乎非常高）的能力，以及为更广泛的知识工作者创造类似收益的能力？例如，你提到的万尺交易、重复购买，是否有可能最终看到 Copilot 在办公室的渗透率与在 GitHub 一样高？
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Yes, that's a great question. In fact, the GitHub design system and the GitHub Copilot workspace design system, which now, for example, you start with an issue, you create a plan, from a plan, you create a spec, or you create a spec and from a spec, you create a plan and then you go operate across the full repo. That's effectively the design system that is getting replicated inside of even the M365 Copilot.
是的，这是一个很好的问题。事实上，GitHub 的设计系统和 GitHub Copilot 的工作区设计系统，例如，现在你可以从一个问题开始，创建一个计划，然后根据计划创建一个规格，或者创建一个规格，然后根据规格创建一个计划，然后在整个 repo 中进行操作。这实际上就是在 M365 Copilot 内部复制的设计系统。
And you see this even now – for example, you get an email, you're in sales, you want to respond to the customer. The data from the email is essentially context for a prompt but you expand by bringing in all of your CRM data, right? So this customer email is in the context of some order, all of the CRM record gets completed in context and a reply gets generated with the CRM data. That's the type of stuff that's already happening. Then you take something like Copilot Studio, you can start even grounding it in more data and then completing workflows. So you could say if this email comes from this customer whose order date is got a particular issue with it. You can then go and escalate it to somebody else who gets a notification in Teams.
例如，你收到一封电子邮件，你是销售人员，你想回复客户。电子邮件中的数据基本上就是提示的上下文，但你可以通过引入所有的 CRM 数据来扩展，对吗？因此，这封客户电子邮件的上下文是某个订单，所有的客户关系管理记录都会在上下文中完成，并通过客户关系管理数据生成回复。这就是已经发生的事情。然后，你可以使用 Copilot Studio 这样的软件，甚至可以将其与更多数据结合起来，然后完成工作流。因此，你可以说，如果这封邮件来自订单日期有特殊问题的客户。你就可以将其升级到其他人，让他们在 Teams 中收到通知。
And those are the kinds of workflows that are getting built within IT or by end users themselves, what used to be line of business applications to us are Copilot extensions going forward. So we think of this as really a new design system for knowledge and frontline work to drive productivity, which would be very akin to what has happened in software engineering. So when you think about marketing or finance or sales or customer service, we will effectively replicate what you just said, which is the type of productivity we've seen in developers, will come to all of these functions as they think about their work, workflow and workout effect, all being driven by Copilots.
这些都是 IT 部门或最终用户自己建立的工作流程，对我们来说，过去的业务应用是 Copilot 的扩展。因此，我们将其视为知识和一线工作的新设计系统，以提高生产力，这与软件工程领域的情况非常相似。因此，当你考虑市场营销、财务、销售或客户服务时，我们将有效地复制你刚才所说的，也就是我们在开发人员身上看到的那种生产力，当他们考虑他们的工作、工作流程和工作效果时，所有这些功能都将由 Copilot 驱动。
Mark Murphy 马克-墨菲
Thank you very much. 非常感谢。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Mark. Operator, we have time for one last question.
谢谢，马克。接线员，我们还有时间问最后一个问题。
Operator 操作员
And the last question will come from the line of Keith Bachman with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.
最后一个问题来自蒙特利尔银行资本市场的基思-巴克曼。请继续
Keith Bachman 基思-巴克曼
Hi. Good evening, and thank you for the opportunity to ask the question. I actually wanted to veer towards gaming, if I could, for a second. Xbox content services revenue grew 61%, 58 points held from Activision. So net is about 3 points of growth. How should investors think about the longer-term growth potential in this area? You've made significant investments, including the Activision deal. But how should investors be thinking about the growth potential of the gaming? Or what are the puts and takes to help make considerations here? Thank you.
晚上好，感谢您给我这个提问的机会。如果可以的话，我想先谈谈游戏。Xbox 内容服务收入增长了 61%，其中 58 个点来自动视。因此净增长约为 3 个百分点。投资者应该如何看待这一领域的长期增长潜力？你们进行了大量投资，包括动视交易。但投资者应该如何看待游戏的增长潜力？或者说，有哪些看跌和看涨的因素可以帮助投资者做出考虑？谢谢。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Yes. For us, our investment in gaming fundamentally was to have, I would say, the right portfolio of both what we love about gaming and always have loved about gaming, which is Xbox and the content for the console and expand from there so that we have content for everywhere people play games, starting with the PC. So when I think about the Activision portfolio, it comes with great assets for us to cover both the PC and the console. And then, of course, assets to cover mobile sockets, which we never have. So we feel that now we have both the content and the ability to access all the traditional high scale platforms where people play games, which is the console, PC and mobile.
是的。对我们来说，我们对游戏的投资，从根本上说，是要拥有我们所热爱的游戏，也是我们一直热爱的游戏，即 Xbox 和游戏机内容的正确组合，并在此基础上进行扩展，以便从 PC 开始，为人们玩游戏的所有地方提供内容。因此，当我考虑动视公司的产品组合时，它为我们提供了覆盖 PC 和游戏机的大量资产。当然，我们还拥有覆盖移动插座的资产，这是我们从未拥有过的。因此，我们认为现在我们既有内容，也有能力进入人们玩游戏的所有传统大规模平台，即游戏机、个人电脑和移动平台。
But we're also excited about these new sockets, right? I mean the fact that even in this last quarter, we expanded X Cloud to Amazon TV, I forget the name of what it's called. But that's the type of new access that really helps us a lot, get reach new gamers or the same gamer everywhere they want to play. And that ultimately will show up in that software plus services and transaction revenue for us, which is really our long-term KPI, and that's what we're building towards. And that was strategy behind Activision as an asset. Amy, if you want to add to it?
但我们也对这些新插座感到兴奋，对吗？我的意思是，即使在上个季度，我们也将 X Cloud 扩展到了亚马逊电视，我忘了它叫什么名字了。但这种新的接入方式确实对我们帮助很大，让我们可以接触到新的游戏玩家或同一玩家想玩的任何地方。而这最终将体现在我们的软件加服务和交易收入上，这是我们的长期关键绩效指标，也是我们正在努力实现的目标。这就是动视作为资产背后的战略。艾米，你想补充一下吗？
这是苹果的战略，按乔布斯的说法，微软缺少品味。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
No. I do think the real goal here is to be able to take a broad set of content to more users in more places, and really build what looks more like to us, the software annuity and subscription business. With enhanced transactions and the ownership of IP, which is quite valuable long-term. As Satya mentioned, things where with the ownership of IP, it can be monetized in multiple ways. And I think we're really encouraged by some of the progress and how we're making progress with Game Pass as well with some of the new announcements. Thank you, Keith.
不，我认为真正的目标是在更多的地方向更多的用户提供更广泛的内容，真正建立起对我们来说更像软件年金和订阅的业务。通过增强交易和知识产权的所有权，这是相当有价值的长期业务。正如萨提亚提到的，拥有知识产权就可以通过多种方式实现货币化。我认为，我们在 Game Pass 方面取得的一些进展，以及一些新宣布的消息，都让我们深受鼓舞。谢谢你，基思。
Brett Iversen 布雷特-伊弗森
Thanks, Keith. That wraps up the Q&A portion of today's earnings call. Thank you for joining us today, and we look forward to speaking with all of you soon.
谢谢，基思。今天的财报电话会议问答部分到此结束。感谢大家参加今天的会议，我们期待着尽快与大家进行交流。
Amy Hood 艾米-胡德
Thank you. 谢谢。
Satya Nadella 萨蒂亚-纳德拉
Thank you all. 谢谢大家。
Operator 操作员
This concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time. Enjoy the rest of your day.
今天的会议到此结束。现在可以断线了。祝您会议愉快
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