Operator  

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Coca-Cola Company's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings Results Conference Call. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. All participants will be on listen-only mode until the formal question-and-answer portion of the call.  

运营人员  

现在，我想欢迎各位参加可口可乐公司2024年第四季度和全年财报电话会议。今天的电话会议正在录音中，如果您对此有任何异议，请在此时断线。所有与会者在正式的问答环节开始前都处于只听模式。  

I would like to remind everyone that the purpose of this conference is to talk with investors and therefore questions from the media will not be addressed. Media participants should contact Coca-Cola's Media Relations Department if they have any questions.  

我想提醒各位，本次会议的目的是与投资者进行沟通，因此不会回答媒体提出的问题。媒体如有疑问，请联系可口可乐公司的媒体关系部门。  

I would now like to introduce Ms. Robin Halpern, Vice President and Head of Investor Relations. Ms. Halpern, you may now begin.  

接下来，请允许我介绍投资者关系副总裁兼负责人罗宾·哈尔彭女士。哈尔彭女士，您现在可以开始了。  

Robin Halpern  

Good morning and thank you for joining us. I'm here with James Quincey, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and John Murphy, our President and Chief Financial Officer. We've posted schedules under financial information in the Investors section of our company website. These reconcile certain non-GAAP financial measures that may be referred to this morning to result as reported under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. You can also find schedules in the same section of our website that provide an analysis of our gross and operating margins. This call may contain forward-looking statements, including statements concerning long-term earnings objectives, which should be considered in conjunction with cautionary statements contained in our earnings release and in the Company's periodic SEC reports. Following prepared remarks, we will take your questions. Please limit yourself to one question. Re-enter the queue to ask any follow-up.  

罗宾·哈尔彭  

各位早上好，感谢您加入我们的会议。今天和我一起的有我们的董事长兼首席执行官詹姆斯·昆西，以及我们的总裁兼首席财务官约翰·墨菲。我们已在公司网站投资者部分的财务信息栏目下发布了相关日程安排，其中对本晨可能涉及的部分非公认会计准则财务指标与符合美国公认会计准则报告的结果进行了对照。您还可以在同一部分查阅有关我们毛利率和营业利润率分析的日程安排。此次电话会议可能包含前瞻性陈述，包括与长期收益目标相关的陈述，在考虑这些陈述时，应结合我们财报新闻稿以及公司向美国证交会定期提交的报告中所载的警示性说明。我们的发言结束后，会有提问环节。请您仅限提一个问题，如需追问，请重新排队。  

Now I will turn the call over to James.  

现在，我将把电话交给詹姆斯。  

James Quincey  

Thanks, Robin, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased with our 2024 results, which include volume growth, robust organic revenue growth, and comparable gross and operating margin expansion. This led to a 7% comparable earnings per share growth, despite nearly double-digit currency headwinds and the impact of bottler refranchising. These results reflect the continuation of delivering on our long-term commitments. Through our all-weather strategy, we've demonstrated we have agility to navigate what comes at us and continue to grow comparable earnings per share.  

谢谢你，Robin，大家早上好。我们对2024年的业绩感到满意，业绩包括销量增长、强劲的有机营收增长，以及可比毛利率和运营利润率的扩张。即便面临近两位数的汇率逆风以及装瓶业务重组的影响，最终可比每股收益仍取得了7%的增长。这些成果体现了我们对长期承诺的持续履行。通过我们的“全环境”战略，我们已经证明了我们拥有应对各种挑战并持续提升可比每股收益的灵活性。

Given the strong momentum of our business, we are confident we can deliver on our 2025 guidance and longer-term objectives. With that as context, I'll next provide perspective on our industry and review our business performance across our segments in the fourth quarter. Then I'll explain how we're executing our strategy by amplifying what is working and fine tuning where needed. John will end by discussing our financial results in more detail and providing an overview of our 2025 guidance.  

鉴于我们业务的强劲势头，我们有信心能够实现2025年的业绩指引以及更长期的目标。在此背景下，接下来我将对我们所处的行业进行阐述，并回顾第四季度在各业务板块的表现。随后，我会说明我们如何通过放大行之有效的做法并在必要之处进行微调来推进战略。最后，John会更详细地探讨财务业绩并概述2025年的指引。

One of our fundamental strengths is that we operate in a great industry with steady growth. No matter how you slice it by consumer, by customer, by beverage category, by geography, we have vast opportunities ahead of us. During the quarter, we leveraged the power of our portfolio and the local expertise of our franchise system to capitalize on these opportunities. We won overall share and have broad-based share gains across our global beverage categories.  

我们的一项根本优势在于，我们所处的行业本身就具备稳健的增长特性。无论是从消费者、客户、饮料品类，还是从地理维度来看，我们面前都有广阔的发展机遇。第四季度，我们运用产品组合的力量和特许经营体系在本地市场的专业优势，抓住了这些机遇。我们整体份额取得增长，且在全球饮料品类范围内实现了普遍的份额提升。

We're making progress across our total beverage portfolio, delivering ongoing growth in sparkling soft drinks, as well as momentum in other categories like value-added dairy and tea, which are reaching global scale, while remaining tailored to local consumer needs. And we're continuing to strengthen alignment across our system, and we believe our global franchise model, which operates locally, is an advantage to drive long-term balance growth. During the quarter, while our operating environment remained dynamic, consumer demand held up well, and our industry remained strong.  

我们在整个饮料组合上取得了进展，既在碳酸软饮料领域持续增长，也在诸如高价值乳制品和茶等品类实现了动能，并在全球范围不断扩大规模，同时兼顾本地消费者需求。此外，我们也在继续加强整个体系的协同。我们相信，我们在全球范围内通过本地化运作的特许经营模式是一项优势，可以推动长期且均衡的增长。第四季度，尽管运营环境依旧多变，但消费者需求表现稳健，行业整体仍然保持强劲。

Starting in Asia Pacific. In ASEAN and South Pacific, we grew volume during the quarter and benefited from successful integrated marketing campaigns like Foodmark, which was activated in over 7,000 outlets and led to trademarked Coca-Cola volume growth. Our system also drove affordability by increasing refillable offerings and focusing on attractive [pass points] (ph). Refillable offerings contributed to approximately one-third of ASEAN and South Pacific volume growth in 2024.  

先从亚太地区开始。在东盟和南太平洋，季度内我们的销量实现增长，得益于像Foodmark这样成功的整合营销活动，该活动在超过7000家门店落地，带动了可口可乐商标产品的销量增长。我们的体系还通过增加可重复装产品以及关注有吸引力的[pass points]（音）来提升产品的可负担性。2024年，可重复装产品占到东盟和南太平洋地区销量增长的大约三分之一。

In China, despite continued macro headwinds, we grew volumes during the quarter and while early, we are seeing improved trends across our business. Trademark Coca-Cola continues to gain share and Sprite, Fanta and Minute Maid each improved volume performance. Our system is stepping up integrated execution in 2024, by accelerating placement of cold drink equipment and activating integrated marketing campaigns in key channels.  

在中国，尽管宏观环境仍面临挑战，但本季度我们的销量继续增长，虽然处于早期阶段，但我们在各项业务中都看到了趋势向好的迹象。可口可乐商标产品持续提高市场份额，而雪碧、芬达和美汁源的销量表现也都有所提升。2024年，我们的体系正在加强整合执行力度，通过加快冷饮设备投放并在关键渠道中推进综合营销活动。

In Japan and South Korea, we grew volume during the quarter. Innovation was a strong contributor to growth, led by resurgence of [indiscernible] and a number of other brands. We're continuing to benefit from steady performance from Trademark Coca-Cola and stepped up integrated execution in key channels. In India, our business rebounded nicely during the quarter, and we grew volume. We recruited consumers with innovative marketing campaigns that link Coca-Cola with music, Sprite with travel and Thums Up with movies. And Maaza is now our 30th billion dollar brand.  

在日本和韩国，季度内我们的销量实现增长。创新对增长贡献突出，主要得益于[听不清]以及其他一些品牌的再度崛起。可口可乐商标产品依旧稳定增长，我们在主要渠道的整合执行力度也进一步加强。在印度，本季度我们的业务表现良好，销量实现增长。我们采用创新的营销活动，将可口可乐与音乐、雪碧与旅行、Thums Up与电影进行关联，从而吸引了消费者。同时，Maaza现在成为了我们的第30个十亿美元品牌。

In 2024, our system added approximately 440,000 outlets to our digital customer platforms in India, which provides more opportunities to better tailor our product, price and packaging offerings. Moving on to EMEA. In Europe, volume declined during the quarter with mixed performance across Western and Eastern markets. Despite volume pressure, we grew both revenue and profit. We are engaging consumers with experiential marketing campaigns like the world needs more [Fanta’s] (ph) for Trademark Coca-Cola and by linking our brands to new occasions like Sprite with spicy meals.  

2024年，我们在印度将大约44万个零售点接入了数字客户平台，为我们更好地定制产品、价格和包装方案创造了更多机会。接下来是EMEA（欧洲、中东和非洲）地区。在欧洲，季度内销量出现下滑，西部和东部市场的表现不一。尽管销量承压，但我们仍实现了营收和利润的双增长。我们通过多样化的体验式营销活动与消费者互动，例如“the world needs more [Fanta’s]（音）”推广可口可乐商标产品，以及将品牌与新场景关联，比如让雪碧融入到辣味餐食。

Also, innovation velocities and multi-year innovation success rates both performed well in 2024. We're seeing good traction on Fuze Tea, Powerade Zero, Jack and Coke and Absolute and Sprite. In Eurasia and Middle East, despite a confluence of continued macro headwinds, we returned to volume growth during the quarter. We're emphasizing the localness of our business and seeing positive responses. For example, the made in made by campaign in Turkey led to strong volume growth for Trademark Coca-Cola.  

此外，在2024年，我们的创新速度和多年度创新成功率都表现良好。Fuze Tea、Powerade Zero、Jack and Coke以及Absolute and Sprite都取得了不错的进展。在欧亚及中东地区，尽管面临持续的宏观逆风，但我们在本季度重回销量增长的轨道。我们强调业务的本地化，收到了积极的反馈。比如在土耳其的“made in made by”活动，带动了可口可乐商标产品的强劲销量增长。

Fuze Tea also had good momentum across the region. Our system is driving affordability and stepping up integrated execution by increasing cooler placement and share of visible inventory during the year.  

In Africa, volume declined during the quarter, driven primarily by pressure in North Africa and Nigeria and partially offset by strong volume momentum in South Africa. We took action during the quarter by adjusting our pack price architecture to further drive affordability. Our system is investing for the long-term, adding refillable offerings, placing more cold drink equipment and increasing manufacturing capacity in 2024.  

Fuze Tea在该地区也保持了良好势头。我们的体系通过增加冷藏陈列并提升可见库存的占比，来推动产品的可负担性并强化整合执行。  

在非洲，季度内销量出现下滑，主要由于北非和尼日利亚的压力，部分被南非的强劲销量增长所抵消。我们在本季度采取了措施，通过调整包装价格结构来进一步提升可负担性。我们的体系正做着长期投入，增加可重复装产品、投放更多冷饮设备，并在2024年扩大生产能力。

In Latin America, despite some macroeconomic pressures, we grew volume, revenue and profit during the quarter. We drove trial and recruited weekly plus drinkers for trademark Coca-Cola in 2024 by better linking the brand to the meal occasion.  

Also, to drive balanced top-line growth our system focused on increasing single serve offerings. Over 90% of our fragmented trade customers are now on our systems digital customer platforms, allowing for greater opportunity to tailor offerings to customers' individual needs. Lastly, in North America, we grew both transactions and volume and had robust top-line and profit growth during the quarter. Trademark Coca-Cola and fairlife remain leaders in at-home retail sales growth.  

在拉美，尽管面临一定的宏观经济压力，季度内我们的销量、营收以及利润都取得了增长。我们在2024年更好地将可口可乐商标产品与正餐场景结合，从而吸引了新的消费者并带动更多周度以上频次的饮用者。  

同时，为实现均衡的收入增长，我们的体系聚焦于扩大小包装产品的供应。超过90%的小型分散贸易客户现已接入我们的系统数字化客户平台，使我们能更好地为客户的个性化需求提供定制化方案。最后，在北美，我们的交易量和销量都实现了增长，季度内营收和利润也表现强劲。可口可乐商标产品和fairlife依旧是家庭零售销售增速的引领者。

Sparkling flavors gained share during the quarter due to successful limited time innovations like Sprite, Winter Spice cranberry and Fanta Beetlejuice and stepped up integrated execution focused on increased point-of-sale messaging and increased share of visible inventory. Consumers responded well to value messaging in away-from-home channels and we increased distribution of key affordable and premium offerings and benefited from product, package and channel mix in the quarter.  

本季度，由于推出了雪碧、Winter Spice蔓越莓和Fanta Beetlejuice等限时创新产品，再加上强化了整合执行、提升终端宣传并扩大了可见库存占比，使得碳酸口味饮品取得了份额增长。消费者对外出消费渠道中的价值定位反应良好，我们也扩大了核心经济型与高端产品的分销，并在本季度享受到产品、包装和渠道组合带来的利好。

To sum everything up, we have good momentum in our business. We are responding to market dynamics locally to execute on our global objectives. While we are delivering on our near-term commitments, we are also investing to improve execution build capabilities and get more granular across our strategic growth flywheel. Our network marketing model is integrating product, digital, live and retail experiences and we are harnessing passion points to connect with consumers in more personalized ways.  

总的来说，我们的业务保持着良好的发展势头。我们因地制宜地应对市场动态，以实现全球目标。在完成近期承诺的同时，我们也在持续投入，增强执行能力，并在战略增长飞轮的各个层面更精细化地发力。我们的网络化营销模式将产品、数字化、线下互动以及零售体验融合在一起，借助消费者热衷的兴趣点，实现更加个性化的互动。

One great example, Fanta Halloween was our first ever global Halloween activation, and we scaled to nearly 50 markets. Partnering with Warner Brothers Pictures, we've created a limited time Fanta Beetlejuice haunted apple flavor. Consumers can packages to access personalized experiences and we replicated the Beetlejuice After Life train taking over train stations, trams and metros. The campaign was activated in-store with our largest customers and contributed to sparkling flavors share gain during the quarter.  

Our culture increasingly emphasizes acting boldly, learning and scaling successes. This year, for the first time, our Coca-Cola Christmas ad was created with generative AI, combining emerging technology with human creativity, which allowed us to produce the ad faster and at a lower cost. The power of emerging technologies like generative AI are still at early stages and we will continue to lead and iterate our approach. We're seeing tangible results from our marketing transformation.  

我们的企业文化愈发注重大胆行动、汲取经验并放大成功。今年我们首次运用生成式AI来制作可口可乐圣诞广告，将新兴科技与人类创意相结合，让我们能够更快、更低成本地完成广告。诸如生成式AI这样的新兴技术仍处于早期阶段，我们会继续引领并迭代我们的策略。我们也已在营销转型中看到切实的成果。

Over the past three years, Trademark Coca-Cola's retail sales have increased approximately $40 billion. According to Time's Magazine, Coca-Cola, Minute Maid and fairlife were named world's best brands in their respective beverage categories in 2024. While we're building capabilities in marketing, we’re also focusing on innovation that prioritizes bigger and bolder bets. Each of our innovations have a clear objectives. Sometimes, we innovate to create a short-term buzz like Coke and Oreo or Sprite Winter Spice cranberry. In other instances, we innovate for lasting impact. This year, we focused on sustaining investments behind key innovations to improve multi-year success rates and drive greater impact. This is paying off as Fuze Tea grew retail value 3 times faster than the Tea category.  

在过去三年里，可口可乐商标产品的零售销售额增加了约400亿美元。根据《时代》杂志报道，可口可乐、美汁源和fairlife在各自所属的饮料品类中被评为2024年“世界最佳品牌”。在我们打造营销能力的同时，也在聚焦于更大、更大胆的创新布局。我们的每一项创新都有着明确的目标。有时，我们的创新是为了制造短期热点，比如可乐搭配奥利奥，或者雪碧的Winter Spice蔓越莓口味。另一些情况下，我们则聚焦于创造长期影响。今年，我们强调对关键创新的持续投入，以提高多年度成功率并带来更大影响。事实证明这一策略行之有效，Fuze Tea的零售价值增长速度是茶品类的3倍。

Topo Chico supporters continued its momentum and Minute Maid Zero Sugar realized strong growth. In 2024, innovation contributed strongly to revenue growth and our innovation success rates improved versus prior year. We're excited about our innovation pipeline for 2025. Moving across our top-line flywheel. Our system is investing heavily in digital capabilities and sticking to the fundamentals of commercial excellence to accelerate consumer recruitment, increase consumption and win in the market. Ensuring product availability is one of our system’s greatest strengths, yet we still have tremendous opportunity. While our system improved share of visible inventory in 2024 and our brands are found in 33 million outlets, there remains ample headroom to increase outlet coverage, reduce out of stock and better tail our offerings with the right placements.  

Topo Chico仍保持了良好势头，而美汁源Zero Sugar实现了强劲增长。2024年，创新对营收增长的贡献显著，而我们的创新成功率也较上一年有所提高。我们对2025年的创新项目充满期待。接下来谈谈我们的营收增长飞轮。我们的体系正在加大对数字化能力的投资，并始终坚持商业卓越的基本原则，以加速消费者招募，提升消费量，并在市场中取胜。确保产品可得性是我们体系的强项之一，但仍存在巨大潜力。虽然我们在2024年提高了可见库存的占比，并且品牌覆盖了3300万个销售点，但在扩大门店覆盖率、减少断货并针对性地投放产品方面依旧有广阔空间。

Basket incidence is another opportunity. Winning just 1 point of global beverage incidence translates into over $40 billion in additional retail sales. To drive basket incidence, our system is focused on better activating integrated marketing campaigns in key channels, increasing point-of-sale displays and winning impulse zones outside the traditional beverage aisle. Final cold drink equipment is one of the strongest consumption drivers in our systems toolbox with approximately 14 million units of cold drink equipment present in our approximately 33 million customer outlets, we have significant opportunity to drive consumption by placing more cold drink equipment.  

“篮购渗透率”是另一项机遇。全球饮料渗透率如能提升1个百分点，就能带来超过400亿美元的额外零售销售额。为推动“篮购渗透率”，我们的体系致力于在关键渠道中更好地落地整合营销活动，提升终端陈列，并在传统饮料货架之外的冲动性消费区域赢得胜利。最后，冷饮设备是我们体系增长消费最强力的手段之一。目前我们在3300万家客户门店中投放了约1400万台冷饮设备，若能进一步增加设备的投放，将拥有巨大的消费拉动空间。

In 2024, our system invested to add nearly 600,000 coolers. Strong commercial execution is enabled by our revenue growth management capabilities, which fuel both top-line growth and margin expansion. We are driving affordability and premiumization across our total beverage portfolio. The strong elasticities we're realizing today are a testament to the progress we are making in this area. By focusing on availability, basket incidents and cold drink equipment, coupled with great marketing, innovation and revenue growth management, our system recruited weekly [cost drinkers] (ph), grew volume and won share in 2024.  

2024年，我们的体系投资新增了近60万台冷藏设备。强大的商业执行力依赖于我们的收入增长管理能力，这同时推动了收入和利润率的扩张。我们在整个饮料组合中兼顾产品的可负担性与高端化。我们目前所取得的高弹性表现，印证了我们在这一领域的进步。通过聚焦于产品供应、购物篮渗透率以及冷饮设备，再配合优秀的营销、创新和收入增长管理，我们的体系在2024年吸引了更多周度[听不清]消费者，实现了销量的提升并赢得了市场份额。

While we made steady progress executing our all-weather strategy in 2024, we are operating with the mindset that we're only just getting started. As we turn the page to 2025, we anticipate the year will bring both opportunities and challenges. We expect the external environment will be dynamic. Several underpinnings remain constant: One, we operate in a great industry; two, we have many opportunities available to us, and we are primed to capture these and deliver sustained performance; three, our powerful portfolio of brands pervasive distribution system and the unwavering dedication of our system employees are clear advantages. Next Tuesday, at CAGNY, I look forward to sharing more about how we are leading to deliver results in all types of backdrops and I encourage everyone to listen.  

尽管我们在2024年稳步推进了全环境战略，但我们仍然认为这一切才刚刚开始。随着我们迈入2025年，机遇与挑战并存。我们预计外部环境仍将保持多变，但有一些基本面是不变的：第一，我们所在的是一个优秀的行业；第二，我们拥有许多机会，并且已经做好了捕捉这些机会并实现持续业绩的准备；第三，我们强大的品牌组合、广泛的分销体系和体系员工的不懈努力构成了我们明确的竞争优势。下周二，我们将在CAGNY进一步分享我们如何在各种环境下取得成果，欢迎各位收听。

With that, I'll turn the call over to John.  

好了，接下来就把时间交给John。

John Murphy  

约翰·墨菲

Thank you, James, and good morning everyone. We closed the year with strong fourth quarter results. And as James said earlier, we delivered 7% comparable earnings per share growth in 2024 on top of 6% average comparable earnings per share growth over the prior five years. During the fourth quarter, we grew organic revenues 14%. Unit case growth was 2%, which is in-line with our multiyear trend.  

谢谢你，詹姆斯，早上好，各位。我们以强劲的第四季度业绩结束了这一年。正如詹姆斯先前所说，我们在2024年实现了每股收益同比增长7%，这是在过去五年每股收益平均增长6%的基础上取得的。第四季度期间，我们的有机收入增长了14%。标准箱销量增长了2%，与我们多年来的趋势相一致。

Concentrate sales grew three points ahead of unit cases driven primarily by two additional days in the quarter and the timing of concentrate shipments. Our price/mix growth of 9% was driven by two items: approximately 8 points of pricing split somewhat evenly between normal pricing actions across our markets and intense inflationary pricing in a handful of markets experiencing currency devaluations and approximately one point of favorable mix. Excluding the impact of intense inflationary pricing, organic revenue growth was above our long-term growth algorithm.  

浓缩液销量比标准箱销量多增长了三个百分点，这主要由本季度多出的两天以及浓缩液出货时间安排所推动。我们9%的价格/组合增长由两项因素驱动：大约8个百分点源于各市场常规提价与在少数遭遇货币贬值的市场中进行的高强度通胀性定价，二者占比大体相当；另有大约1个百分点来自有利的组合效应。剔除高强度通胀性定价的影响后，有机收入增速仍高于我们长期的增长算法。

Comparable gross margin was up approximately 160 basis points and comparable operating margin was up approximately 80 basis points. Bottlers refranchising had a greater benefit to comparable gross margin and currency headwinds had a larger impact to comparable operating margin. Putting altogether, fourth quarter comparable EPS of $0.55 was up 12% year-over-year despite 11% currency headwinds and 4% headwinds from bottlers refranchising.  

可比毛利率上升了约160个基点，可比营业利润率上升了约80个基点。装瓶商重组对可比毛利率的提升作用更大，而汇率的不利因素对可比营业利润率造成了更大影响。总的来说，第四季度的可比每股收益为0.55美元，同比增长12%，即使面对11%的汇率不利因素和4%的装瓶商重组不利因素。

Free cash flow excluding the IRS tax litigation deposit was $10.8 billion in 2024, an increase of 11% versus prior year. This increase was primarily driven by strong business performance and timing of working capital initiatives, partially offset by higher capital expenditures and higher tax payments.  

2024年，不包括美国国税局税务诉讼保证金的自由现金流为108亿美元，比上一年增长11%。这种增长主要得益于强劲的业务表现和营运资金措施的时机安排，但也部分被更高的资本支出和更高的税款所抵消。

In 2024, adjusted free cash flow conversion was 93%, which is within our long-term targeted range. Our balance sheet is strong, and our net debt leverage of 1.8 times EBITDA is below our targeted range of 2 times to 2.5 times. If you include our latest estimate of $6.2 billion related to our fairlife contingent consideration payment, our expected net debt leverage would be at the low-end of our target range.  

在2024年，调整后的自由现金流转换率为93%，处于我们长期目标范围内。我们的资产负债表保持强劲，净债务与息税折旧摊销前利润（EBITDA）比率为1.8倍，低于我们2倍至2.5倍的目标范围。如果将我们最新估算的与fairlife或有对价支付相关的62亿美元计算在内，我们预计净债务杠杆率将处于目标范围的低端。

As James mentioned, 2025 will likely bring both opportunities and challenges. Enabled by our all-weather strategy, we have demonstrated our ability to deliver on our objectives and drive long term growth. Our 2025 guidance builds on the enduring momentum of our business. We expect organic revenue growth of 5% to 6% and comparable currency neutral earnings per share growth of 8% to 10%, both of which reflected delivery at the high end of our long-term growth algorithm.  

正如詹姆斯所提到的，2025年可能既有机遇也有挑战。在我们全方位策略的支持下，我们已经证明了自己能够完成目标并推动长期增长的能力。我们的2025年指引建立在公司持续的动力之上。我们预计有机收入将增长5%到6%，可比货币中性每股收益将增长8%到10%，两者都体现了在我们长期增长算法的高端水平取得成果。

We continue to focus on driving balanced volume and price mix and anticipate intense inflationary pricing will play a smaller role in 2025 and will moderate throughout the year. Also refranchising is expected to be a slight headwind to comparable net revenues and comparable earnings per share as we cycle the impact of bottle refranchising in 2024.  

我们将继续致力于推动均衡的销量和价格组合，并预计高强度通胀定价在2025年的作用会减小，并在全年逐渐缓和。同时，我们预计随着我们在2024年循环装瓶业务重组的影响，重组业务对可比净营收和可比每股收益会构成轻微的不利因素。

We'll continue to invest appropriately behind our brands while also driving productivity across all areas of marketing. Next week at CAGNY, we'll discuss further our marketing transformation and enhanced resource allocation capabilities give us confidence in our ability to continue to drive more productivity. As we expect expense to be elevated versus prior year. We believe the step-up is manageable, and we're not expecting significant leverage or deleverage below the line. Based on current rates and our hedge positions, we anticipate an approximate 3-point to 4-point currency headwind to comparable net revenues and an approximate 6-point to 7-point currency headwind to comparable earnings per share for full year 2025.  

我们将继续对我们的品牌进行适度投资，同时在营销的各个领域提升效率。下周在CAGNY会议上，我们将进一步讨论我们的营销转型，以及增强后的资源配置能力如何使我们有信心继续推动更高的效率。由于我们预计费用相较于去年会有所上升，但我们认为这个增长是可控的，并且我们不预计在基准线以下出现显著的杠杆放大或缩小。基于当前的汇率水平和我们的对冲头寸，我们预计2025年全年可比净营收将面临大约3到4个百分点的汇率不利因素，而可比每股收益将面临大约6到7个百分点的汇率不利因素。

Our underlying effective tax rate for 2025 is expected to increase to 20.8%, which is driven primarily by the impact of several countries enacting the global minimum tax regulations. All in, we expect comparable earnings per share growth of 2% to 3%, versus $2.88 in 2024.  

我们预计2025年的基础有效税率将上升到20.8%，这主要是因为多个国家颁布了全球最低税收法规的影响。总体而言，我们预计可比每股收益将比2024年的2.88美元增长2%到3%。

Excluding the fairlife contingent consideration payment, we expect to generate approximately $9.5 billion of free cash flow in 2025 through approximately $11.7 billion in cash from operations, less approximately $2.2 billion in capital investments. Included in this guidance are two items to highlight: One, a $1.2 billion transition tax payment, an increase of approximately $240 million versus 2024. This is the final year that we will make a payment related to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017.  

若不考虑fairlife或有对价的支付，我们预计2025年的自由现金流约为95亿美元，其中包括从经营活动产生的约117亿美元现金，减去约22亿美元的资本投资。本项指引中需要重点提及的有两点：第一，12亿美元的过渡税款支付，与2024年相比增加了大约2.4亿美元。这是我们就2017年《减税与就业法案》相关付款的最后一年。

Number two, we expect that part of the timing of working capital initiatives that benefited 2024 free cash flow will reverse and impact 2025 free cash flow. Driven by our underlying cash flow generation, we have flexibility to invest in our business and return capital to shareowners. A significant portion of our expected capital investment is to build capacity for fairlife and to continue to invest in our system in India and Africa.  

第二，2024年部分有利于自由现金流的营运资金举措在时间安排上将出现回转，并会对2025年的自由现金流造成影响。受我们基础现金流创造能力的推动，我们在投资业务和向股东返还资本方面具有灵活性。我们预期的资本投资有相当一部分将用于为fairlife建设产能，并继续在印度和非洲投资我们的系统。

With respect to acquisitions and divestitures, we are making good progress on our agenda.  

关于收购和剥离，我们在相关议程上已取得了良好的进展。

Since 2006, we have added $9 billion brands via acquisition. Importantly, only three of these brands were $1 billion-dollar brands at the time of acquisition, demonstrating progress in scaling acquisitions. In 2024, we realized $3.5 billion in gross proceeds from refranchising bottling investments as a percent of consolidated net revenue is 13%, down from 52% in 2015. Return on invested capital is up 6 points at the same time.  

自2006年以来，我们通过收购新增了9个价值达十亿美元的品牌。值得注意的是，在收购时只有三个品牌本身已是10亿美元规模，表明我们在扩大收购规模方面取得了进展。2024年，我们通过重组装瓶投资获得的总收益为35亿美元，装瓶投资占合并净营收的比重为13%，低于2015年的52%。同期的投资资本回报率上升了6个百分点。

Related to capital return, we have an unwavering priority to grow our dividend as we've done for 62 consecutive years.  

关于资本回报，我们始终将增加股息放在首位，正如我们已经连续62年所做的那样。

Our dividend is supported by our long-term free cash flow generation. In 2024, dividends paid as a percent of adjusted free cash flow was 73%. On share repurchases, we have typically repurchased shares to offset any dilution from the exercise of stock options by employees in the given year.  

我们的股息增长由我们长期的自由现金流创造能力所支撑。2024年，股息占调整后自由现金流的73%。在回购股票方面，我们通常会回购股票以抵消当年员工行使股票期权所带来的任何稀释。

Our capital allocation policy prioritizes agility and we're committed to driving the long-term health of our business and creating value for our stakeholders. There are some considerations to keep in mind for 2025.  

我们的资本配置政策以灵活性为先，我们致力于推动业务的长期健康并为利益相关者创造价值。对于2025年，还有一些需要留意的因素。

We expect bottler refranchising to have a greater impact to comparable net revenues and comparable earnings per share during the first quarter, as we cycle the impact of refranchising the Philippines, which closed during the first quarter of 2024.  

我们预计在第一季度，装瓶业务重组对可比净营收和可比每股收益的影响将更大，因为我们在第一季度循环了对菲律宾业务重组的影响，该重组在2024年第一季度完成。

We expect the productivity benefits that I previously discussed to have a larger impact during the latter half of 2025.  

我们预计我之前所提到的那些生产力提升所带来的益处将在2025年下半年产生更大的影响。

Due to our reporting calendar, there will be two less days in the first quarter and one additional day in the fourth quarter.  

由于我们的报告日历安排，第一季度将减少两天，而第四季度将增加一天。

So in summary, we are successfully executing our all-weather strategy to deliver on our objectives. Our system remains incredibly focused and motivated. We will continue to invest with discipline and believe we are well-positioned to drive quality top-line growth and deliver continued margin expansion.  

总而言之，我们正在成功实施全方位的战略以完成我们的目标。我们的体系依然高度专注并且充满动力。我们将继续有纪律地进行投资，并相信我们具备良好条件来推动高质量的营收增长并实现持续的利润率扩张。

A hallmark of our company since its inception has been our ability to create enduring value over time, and we expect to continue to do so.  

自公司成立以来，我们的显著特征之一就是具备随时间持续创造价值的能力，我们也预计将继续保持这一点。

With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.  

好了，接线员，我们准备好回答问题了。

Question-and-Answer Session  

问答环节  

Operator  

话务员  

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

[操作说明] 我们的第一个问题来自巴克莱的Lauren Lieberman。请开始提问。您的线路已接通。  

Lauren Lieberman  

劳伦·利伯曼  

Great. Thanks. Good morning everyone. The business seemed to buck the trend that we've seen from many other staples companies between strong 4Q results and the conviction in upper-end of the sales algorithm for 2025. So I would just be curious to hear more from you about your perspective about the consumer environment globally, particularly in developed markets where U.S. sentiment has been so mixed. Western Europe, there have been some flags on certain markets lagging. So curious your kind of global perspective on the consumer environment. Thanks so much.  

太好了。谢谢。各位早上好。这家业务似乎与我们在许多其他必需消费品公司中看到的趋势不同，一方面是强劲的第四季度业绩，另一方面是对2025年销售算法高端表现的信心。所以，我很好奇想听听你们对全球消费环境的看法，特别是在发达市场，美国方面的情绪一直很复杂。在西欧，也有一些市场表现落后。我想听听你们对全球消费环境的整体看法。非常感谢。  

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西  

Sure. Morning. Lauren. I think the overall consumer environment is pretty stable in the sense that there's good economic growth on a broad-based view around the world, and that includes both the developed and the emerging markets. If I look at the developed markets, whilst it is absolutely true that the lower income segments in the U.S. and perhaps even more notably in Europe and Western Europe are under disposable income pressure and have been in '24, and quite possibly will continue for some part of '25, the rest of the consumer base is actually still gaining in terms of disposable income and is spending.  

当然。早上好，Lauren。我认为整体消费环境相对稳定，因为从全球范围的广泛角度来看，经济增长都不错，包括发达市场和新兴市场。如果我看看发达市场，虽然确实美国以及可能更加明显的欧洲和西欧的低收入人群正面临可支配收入压力，并且在2024年已经如此，而且很可能会持续到2025年的某个阶段，但其余的消费者群体实际上仍在增加可支配收入并进行消费。  

Maybe spending a little more in the U.S., North America than Western Europe, whether there was more direction to saving. But a pretty strong, sustained demand level across the developed world. And similarly, in the emerging markets, yes, it is a little more volatile in ups and downs. But in aggregate, again you see pretty robust or enduring consumer demand. In the quarter, we saw India rebound. We saw China get a bit better. The Middle East got a bit better, they are still doing pretty well in Latin America, a little softer perhaps in Africa. But overall, we see continued robustness and growth across consumers that we need to respond to with all the strategies that we have. It's not going to be a one size fits. All we need to focus on delivering for them with the marketing and the innovation and the execution and particularly the affordability and premiumization. So the demand is there. And I think what you see in the fourth quarter has been our ability to focus on what we have to do to get a good result for the company. And that’s what we’re confident in continuing for 2025.  

也许在美国和北美的消费比西欧多一些，或者他们更倾向于储蓄。不过，在整个发达世界，需求水平依然相当强劲且持续。与之类似的是新兴市场，虽然确实会有更多的波动，但总体而言，你仍能看到非常稳健或持久的消费者需求。在本季度，我们看到印度出现了反弹，中国表现有所改善，中东也进一步好转，拉丁美洲仍表现不错，非洲或许略显疲软。但总体而言，我们看到消费者层面的持续强劲与增长，而我们需要用所有可用的战略来应对。这不会是一种放之四海而皆准的做法，我们需要将重点放在利用市场营销、创新和执行力，尤其是产品的可负担性和高端化，为他们提供服务。市场的需求确实存在。而我认为从第四季度的表现中，我们展现了如何专注于完成自己的工作，以为公司取得良好成果。我们也对在2025年继续保持这一点充满信心。

Operator  

话务员  

Our next question comes from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

我们的下一个问题来自摩根士丹利的Dara Mohsenian。请开始提问。您的线路已接通。

Dara Mohsenian  

达拉·莫森尼安  

Hi, good morning. So just on that 5% to 6% organic revenue growth forecast for 2025, can you just give us a bit more granularity on the balance between volume that you see as well as price and mix? And just wanted to focus on your plans on the pricing component in 2025. You mentioned there is some stress on low-end consumer in a few markets after inflation in recent years. But clearly, with your Q4 results, the overall consumer seems to be handling pricing from Coke well. There's also FX pressure. So there is just a number of volatile external circumstances. Just how does that impact how you manage pricing in 2025 and how that might be different than a typical year, either on the pricing or the mix front? Thanks.  

你好，早上好。关于你们对2025年5%到6%的有机收入增长预测，可否再为我们详细说明一下你们对销量、价格以及产品组合之间的平衡？同时，我也想特别了解一下你们在2025年的定价策略。你们提到，过去几年通胀之后，部分市场的低端消费群体面临一定压力。但从第四季度的数据来看，整体消费群体似乎对可口可乐的定价接受度不错。同时还有汇率方面的压力。现在外部环境确实有很多不稳定因素。请问这会对你们在2025年的定价策略产生怎样的影响？是否和常规年份相比会有所不同，无论是在定价还是在产品组合层面？谢谢。

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西  

Yeah, sure. Good morning Dara. Look, I think let us start from the top level down on '25. Our long-term algorithm we called out, we want to be at the top end, so 5% to 6% and expect in the long term a balance between volume and price, so I'd say 2% to 3% of each. It seems more likely in '25, there'll be a little more price and a little less volume but there will be volume growth and obviously, there will be price growth. But perhaps a little weighted a little more to price than volume than a long-term year, but still solid continued volume momentum which has been an enduring feature of what we have pursued over the last number of years, which is not just keeping people in our franchise, but growing our franchise for the long-term.  

好的，早上好，Dara。让我们从2025年的整体情况说起。我们先前提到的长期增长算法是要达到区间的高端，也就是5%到6%的增长，并且在长期而言，在销量和定价之间维持平衡，每个方面各贡献2%到3%。在2025年，我们可能会在价格方面多一些，在销量方面少一些，但销量依旧会有增长，当然也会有价格方面的增长。与长期而言相比，定价在总体增长中的权重会更高一些，销量的权重略低一些，但依然保持强劲而持续的销量增长势头。这也是我们多年来追求的目标，不仅要留住消费者，也要从长远来看不断扩大我们的消费群体。

And so that's the headline of what we expect to see. And I would say like if you take 2024, where you've got a kind of a headline price/mix of about 10%, half of that is from these high-inflation countries, which we expect to largely drop out in 2025. Another way of thinking of it is really ex-high inflation, you had about 5% price mix in 2024. And you are going to see that continue to moderate as inflation has moderated down to a kind of a slightly lower number in 2025 and largely the dropout of these high-inflation countries in 2025, if that helped give you a factor.  

以上就是我们的整体预期。我再举2024年为例，当时整体价格/组合增长大约是10%，其中有一半来自那些高通胀市场，我们预计这些高通胀市场在2025年将基本退出这种极端的通胀环境。换种角度理解，如果不算这些高通胀市场，2024年的价格/组合增长大约是5%。随着通胀水平在2025年继续回落到相对较低的水平，加之这些高通胀市场对整体数字的影响在2025年会大幅减少，你会看到价格/组合增长继续趋缓，这样的思路或许能给你一些参考。

And so we feel we've got a level of actual pricing in the marketplace that is proportionate and reasonable relative to inflation and relative to what we can support through the actions we are taking across the whole flywheel from the marketing, the innovation, the execution, the RGM through affordability and premiumization and all the commercial execution.  

因此，我们认为，在当前市场层面，我们的实际定价水平与通胀水平相匹配，而且也与我们通过飞轮各个环节所能提供的支持相适应，包括市场营销、创新、执行、收入增长管理（RGM）涉及的可负担性和高端化，以及所有的商业执行策略。

Operator  

话务员

Our next question comes from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Please go ahead, your line is open.  

接下来提问的是美国银行的Bryan Spillane。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。

Bryan Spillane  

布莱恩·斯皮莱恩

Thanks, operator. Good morning everyone. Maybe just to pick up on Dara's question. Maybe John, can you -- and James, can you give us just two perspectives. One, as we think about the organic sales growth for 2025, just given some of the -- I guess, some of the moving parts we saw in 4Q, just how should we kind of think about it from a phasing perspective? Does the -- I guess this is the pricing from some of the emerging markets or inflationary countries kind of fade as we move through the year. So that's the first one.  

谢谢，话务员。大家早上好。或许我们可以接着Dara的问题。John，你能——James，你能不能给我们提供两个视角？首先，关于2025年的有机销售增长，考虑到第四季度里的一些——我猜是一些关键变动因素——我们该如何从阶段性角度去理解这一点？也就是说，来自一些新兴市场或者通胀性国家的定价会不会随着时间推移在这一年里逐步减弱？这是我的第一个问题。

And the second, maybe if you could also just give us a context of 5% to 6% organic sales growth and how that stands against kind of industry growth? If you can give us some perspective on kind of what the exit rate was for the industry and maybe what you are thinking about for next year? And then just last one, I forgot -- I should have called this out last time, but the hold music is amazing. It was a real nice change. And I just want to make sure that, that gets recognized. Robin doing her job.  

其次，能否给我们一些关于5%到6%有机销售增长与行业增速之间关系的背景信息？如果可以的话，请分享你们对于行业“退出增速”（exit rate）的看法，以及对明年的整体预测？最后，我漏了——我上一次应该提到这个的，但我忘了。你们的电话等待音乐非常棒，简直是一种愉悦的改变。我想确认一下，让这个亮点得到肯定。Robin真的很称职。

John Murphy  

约翰·墨菲

Thanks, Bryan. Well, I'm glad the last comment was out of question. So but, it's passed on. On the guidance for the -- I'm not going to get into a lot of commentary inside the quarter. We do have two less days in the quarter, coming out of '24 decent momentum going into it. On the pricing front, some inflation in -- from the more intense markets in Q1, which we expect to moderate throughout the year. And on the volume phasing itself, I think we are looking at -- there's a Q2, I think, is probably the more challenging uphill of the quarters ahead. On -- as I say, on the intense inflationary markets that we've highlighted in '24, as James said, affecting the headline numbers, we see that moderating throughout the year.  

谢谢你，Bryan。嗯，我很高兴你最后那条评论不是个问题，不过我会转达的。至于本季度的指引，我不会做太多点评。我们在第一季度会比平常少两天，从2024年还算不错的势头开始。定价方面，在第一季度我们预期在一些通胀更严重的市场会继续有通胀压力，但会在全年逐步缓和。至于销量的节奏，我认为第二季度或许会是我们面前最具挑战性的季度。正如我所说，关于我们在2024年里曾重点提到的这些高通胀市场，如同James所说，对整体指标的影响会随着这一年逐步放缓。

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西

Yes, on the industry growth, if I mean clearly, we’re planning to and expect and aim to gain share. So to the extent that we end up growing 5% to 6%, then that is based on the idea that the industry is growing at a more normalized level. If you look at the long-term growth rate of the industry, you tend to get a 4% or a 5%. So we are absolutely expecting the industry growth rate towards a model, which is kind of what was happening in Q4, the underlying rate, if you take out the high inflation countries is kind of 6% or 7% in the fourth quarter, and we were gaining share. So again, it's very consistent with this idea we've been talking about, which is as inflation moderates we see a normalization of both the industry growth rate, our growth rate, with us being the long-term winner in the industry with ongoing robust industry growth.  

好的，关于行业增长，如果我没理解错，我们的目标和计划是继续扩大市占率。因此，如果我们最终实现5%到6%的增长，前提就是整个行业也在一个较为正常的水平上增长。纵观行业的长期增速，通常是4%到5%。所以，我们对于行业的增长率预期是会回到一个类似第四季度的水平。如果把高通胀市场刨除的话，第四季度的行业内在增长大概是6%或者7%，我们当时也在抢占市占率。这与我们多次提到的观点一脉相承：随着通胀趋于缓和，我们认为行业增速和我们的增速都会趋于常态化，而我们在这个行业中仍会是长期赢家，而行业本身也会持续稳健地增长。

Operator  

话务员  

Our next question comes from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

接下来提问的是德意志银行的Steve Powers。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。

Steve Powers  

史蒂夫·鲍尔斯  

Hi guys. Good morning. Thank you. I guess moving down the income statement. Your outlook seems to imply some pretty strong underlying margin and profitability progress just net of the FX pressures and the higher tax rate. So could you talk about some of the key drivers there? And then, I guess, similar to Bryan's question, any timing considerations we should keep in mind over the course of the year beyond just the number of days in each fiscal quarter. Thank you.  

大家好，早上好。谢谢。我想往损益表更下方看一下，你们的预期似乎表明，即便考虑外汇压力和更高的税率，整体仍能在利润率和盈利能力上取得较强的进展。能否谈谈推动这一进展的一些核心因素？另外，类似于Bryan的提问，除去每个财季天数不同之外，全年是否还有一些我们需要留意的时间性考量？谢谢。

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西  

Sure. Maybe I will start and then John will weigh in on some of these considerations. Firstly, yes, there is some implied margin expansion in 2025, coming from some of the marketing expenditure and some of the SG&A. This is the culmination of many of the programs we've been putting in place over the last number of years to continue not just to get effectiveness but to get efficiency. And the simplest example is the marketing transformation where it is helping us continue -- take the Christmas ad in Q4 last year, which we made with generative AI as a small example, it was both quicker and cheaper to make the ad. And so what you are seeing come in to 2025 is some of the fruition of work that's been going on across the organization, including the marketing transformation that is producing some productivity in 2025.  

好的，也许我先说一下，然后John会补充一些考虑因素。首先，是的，2025年确实蕴含着一定的利润率扩张空间，主要来自部分营销支出和管理费用（SG&A）的变化。这是我们过去几年里为提升效率和效能所实施众多项目的综合成果。最简单的例子就是我们的营销转型——去年第四季度的圣诞广告，我们使用生成式AI制作，这只是一个小例子，它使我们的广告制作更快也更省钱。所以你们在2025年所看到的，是公司内部多个项目结出的成果，包括营销转型在内，正在为2025年带来更多的生产力提升。

But it's important to say that we are not backing off our bias to investor growth. This is not less marketing, this is more productive spend. And so our mode of operation going into the year will continue to be. We believe that will be growth in 2025 in the industry. We are going to invest from the marketing all the way down through the system into the commercial levers in order to continue to drive growth. As we find pluses and minuses around the world, of course, we will adapt and be flexible, but this is about leaning into growth, continuing to invest to drive the franchise and being able to capture some of the benefits of the transformational work that's been going on over a number of years. John, do you want to add some considerations?  

但要强调的是，我们并没有放缓对业务增长的投入力度。这不是削减营销开支，而是让支出更高效。因此，我们在新的一年依然会采取同样的运作模式。我们相信2025年整个行业还会保持增长，所以我们会从营销到系统内的各种商业杠杆继续投入，以推动业务增长。当然，如果在世界各地出现各种正负面因素，我们也会灵活调整，但核心目标依然是推动增长，持续投资来壮大我们的业务体系，并从过去数年里进行的变革项目中获得更多收益。John，你有没有要补充的？

John Murphy  

约翰·墨菲  

Sure. Let me go off a little bit and talk about gross margin. Steve, so I can provide some additional commentary. We are not building an enormous amount of expansion on the gross margin front into our guidance, we do expect to continue to have some underlying expansion. But as you alluded to the FX, that's largely maybe offset by currency. It’s – we anticipated for '25, there is quite a lot of moving parts inside of the gross margin equation. So we've -- as I said, we've not for guidance purposes built in an enormous amount of expansion. Commodities will be in the low-singles range overall, some pressures on the agricultural particularly juice and coffee that are a big part of our base.  

好的。我想先谈一下毛利率。Steve，这样我可以提供更多解释。我们在指引中并没有设定大量的毛利率扩张预期，但确实预期会有一些内在的增长。不过正如你提到的，汇率可能会在很大程度上抵消这部分增长。我们预估到2025年，毛利率的组成因素依然会波动较大。正如我所说，我们并没有在指引里设定特别可观的扩张预期。大宗商品的价格总体上处于低个位数通胀区间，而在农产品领域，尤其是果汁和咖啡，这些是我们业务中占比较大的部分，可能会面临一定压力。

We have the usual set of levers that will deploy to cover those. But for -- as I said, for guidance purposes, you can assume modest expansion at the gross margin line. And as Jim said, we've been anticipating for quite some time, the 2025 environment and the sort of the more for same, more for less mantra is certainly alive and well.  

我们会继续使用常规的各种杠杆来应对。但就像我说的，就指引而言，你可以预期我们在毛利率层面会有一些适度的上行空间。正如Jim所说，我们已经对2025年的市场环境作了相当长时间的预判，“用同样的投入创造更多价值，或用更少投入创造更多价值”的理念依然适用并且行之有效。

Operator  

话务员  

Our next question comes from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

我们的下一个问题来自花旗银行的菲利波·法洛尔尼。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。  

Filippo Falorni  

菲利波·法洛尔尼  

Hi, good morning everyone. I wanted to ask you your thoughts on just the global trade environment, obviously with tariff coming more into play here. It seems your supply chain is largely localized in most countries. But can you talk about some exposures in terms of import to export? And also just the secondary impact on commodities. I know a lot of it is on your [bottler system] (ph), but just thoughts on the recent tariffs also on aluminum and steel. Thank you.  

你好，早上好，各位。我想听听你们对全球贸易环境的看法，尤其是现在关税开始发挥更大作用。你们的供应链似乎主要在各国本地化布局。但能否谈谈在进出口方面的风险敞口？以及对大宗商品的次级影响？我知道其中有很多与装瓶系统有关。另外，也想听听你们对最近对铝和钢征收关税的看法。谢谢。  

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西  

Yeah, thanks. Filippo. Clearly, there's -- it's a dynamic macro environment out there. As commodities change for whatever reason, up or down, obviously, our number one objective is to look at how we mitigate through that. And whether it is the recent aluminum tariffs or any other tariff based or frankly, weather based or any other variation in the input commodities, we do a number of things. One we have hedging programs in place that look to assure supply and price going out. Secondly, as the relative prices of different sources of ingredients, and imports change of course, we look at mitigation, productivity, efficiency, adjusting where we get our materials from.  

好的，谢谢你，Filippo。很显然，宏观环境目前相当动荡。当大宗商品价格因各种原因出现波动时，无论是上涨还是下跌，我们的首要目标都是去寻找应对方案。无论是最近的铝关税，还是其他基于关税、天气，或者各种原材料供应变化因素，我们都会采取多种措施。首先，我们有对冲计划，以确保未来的供应和价格。其次，随着不同原材料来源和进口成本的相对价格变化，我们也会着手进行风险缓解、提升生产力和效率，并调整我们的物料采购渠道。 

All of that goes into the equation to constantly manage how this goes through. Net-net, as John just mentioned, we have – we’re expecting more variation in agricultural than industrials, notwithstanding recent actions, we’ll manage through it. As you said, we are predominantly a local business when it comes to making each of the beverages. The vast majority of everything that's consumed in the U.S. is made in the U.S.  

所有这些都会纳入我们整体考量，并持续加以管理。总体来看，正如John刚刚提到的，与工业原材料相比，我们更关注农产品方面的波动。即便有近期的政策动作，我们也会妥善应对。正如你提到的，在生产饮料方面，我们主要是本地化经营。在美国消费的大部分产品，都在美国境内生产。

Similarly, we've merged every country around the world. And so while it is a global business, it's very local. So yes, every bottler will be importing something from somewhere as a piece of the puzzle, but the economics are more predominantly local than they are global. And so it is a piece of the puzzle we need to manage through. As John said, we have that, we believe, on the under control from a point of view of sustaining gross margin. No doubt the environment will continue to be dynamic, but we will continue to manage and mitigate and adjust and be agile and flexible our way through the year.  

同样地，我们在全球所有国家都进行本地化运营。尽管从某种角度而言这是一个全球化业务，但在生产层面却非常本地化。确实，每个装瓶商都会从不同地方进口某些东西，但从经济角度看，本地因素依然占主导地位。因此，这是我们必须加以管理的一部分。正如John所说，为维持毛利率，我们认为对这些因素还是可控的。外部环境毫无疑问会持续多变，但我们会继续进行管理、缓解风险、随时调整，保持灵活性和敏捷性度过这一年。  

John Murphy  

约翰·墨菲  

And just one additional comment. Your supply chain continuity continues to be, I think for many industries, an ongoing challenge for a variety of reasons. 2024 was no stranger to that. And our cross-enterprise procurement team are managing a vast network and in addition to the economics, just making sure that we can continue to supply our markets around the world consistently is a key priority. And an important advantage, I think to enjoy, as well in the many markets that we are in.  

另外再补充一点。对很多行业来说，供应链持续稳定都是一个长期挑战，原因各种各样。2024年对我们来说也不例外。我们的跨企业采购团队在管理一个庞大的供应网络，除了经济层面，还要确保我们能够持续为全球各个市场提供稳定的供应，这是我们的一项核心优先任务。我认为这在我们所处的众多市场中也是一个非常重要的竞争优势。  

Operator  

话务员  

Our next question comes from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

我们的下一个问题来自高盛的Bonnie Herzog。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。  

Bonnie Herzog  

邦妮·赫尔佐格  

All right. Thank you good morning. I guess thinking about the new administration and some potential regulatory changes, what percentage of your domestic portfolio might be subject to potential changes? And then, James how quickly can you pivot or adapt your portfolio if some of these changes are implemented. And then I'll ask it since it is become more topical again lately, but how are you thinking about potential impacts on consumption from GLP-1 drugs. Have you seen any impact? And has your thinking on this potential headwind changed in terms of [year-over-year] (ph) strategy, innovation, et cetera. Thanks.  

好的。谢谢，早上好。关于新政府上台和一些潜在的监管变化，你们国内产品组合中有多大比例可能受到这些潜在政策变化的影响？如果这些变化实施的话，你们能多快地调整或适应自己的产品组合？另外，最近这个话题又热了起来，你们怎么看GLP-1类药物对消费可能造成的影响？你们有看到任何影响吗？你们对这种潜在不利因素的看法在年度策略或创新方面是否有所改变？谢谢。  

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西  

Well, Bonnie, I'm tempted to start with the answer to the first question by saying you win the prize for the Vegas question so far this year with that. What might happen subject to changes. There are many things that could happen out there in the world. And of course, we do scenario planning on regulations, on economics and all sorts of things, and we will adapt as and when they come. More specifically on the GLP-1s as we've commented on previous calls, we continue to see anecdotal evidence of the impact of GLP-1s on consumption of food and beverages. So far, our take is it's not a big aggregate factor for the beverage industry or the non-alcoholic beverage industry, witness the volume for our sales was up 1% in the fourth quarter in North America.  

好的，Bonnie，就你第一个问题，我几乎想先开玩笑说你今年目前问了一个“最拉斯维加斯”的问题。因为可能发生的变化很多，我们也确实在不断制定不同的监管、经济以及各种其他方面的情景规划，并会在实际变化到来时进行调整。关于GLP-1类药物，这一点我们在以前的电话会议上也提到过，我们确实看到了一些零星的证据，表明GLP-1类药物对食品和饮料消费有一定的影响。但就目前来看，我们认为这还不是对饮料行业或非酒精饮料行业产生重大影响的因素，比如我们在北美的销量在第四季度依然实现了1%的增长。  

So we continue to see pretty sustained momentum in North America. There is anecdotal evidence that people consume slightly less alcohol perhaps, and they do some switching in nonalcoholic beverages. But overall, we are seeing sustained momentum, and we are a total beverage company. So we believe whether it's GLP-1 drugs or changes and adaptations to regulation ingredients, our objective is to have the biggest possible toolbox of ingredients of super high quality and safety, which we use to make a total beverage portfolio that works for consumers. And we believe we can adapt to anything that comes at us.  

所以我们在北美市场依然看到相当可持续的增长势头。有一些零星证据表明，人们的酒精消费略有减少，并且会在非酒精饮料领域进行一定的替换。但总体上看，我们的势头依然很稳定，而且我们是一家全品类饮料公司。无论是GLP-1类药物的影响，还是监管和原料的变化或调整，我们的目标都是具备尽可能全面的高质量、高安全性原料组合，从而为消费者提供完整的饮料产品线。我们相信自己有能力应对任何可能出现的情况。  

Operator  

话务员

Our next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.  

我们的下一个问题来自杰富瑞的Kaumil Gajrawala。请开始提问，您的线路已接通。

Kaumil Gajrawala  

考米尔·加吉拉瓦拉

Everyone. Good morning. John, you laid out a long list of very substantial cash payments that have been made this year -- last year, almost all of which will be behind you very soon. So can you maybe just talk about how you think about cash or capital allocation when you're on the other side of it, whether it be buybacks, whether it be more aggressive around M&A. The magnitude of the change of the amount of cash you'll have on hand next year versus this year, so substantial. I'd like to see how you might think about it differently. Thank you.  

各位早上好。John，你提到在过去这一年里，你们已经支付了一系列非常大的现金支出，而这些支出很快就要告一段落。那么，当这一切结束之后，你们对现金或资本配置会有什么新的想法？无论是股票回购，还是在并购方面采取更进取的态度。明年相比今年，你们手中的现金规模会有很大变化。我想了解一下你们对此的不同考量。谢谢。

John Murphy  

约翰·墨菲

Thanks, Kaumil. Let me maybe answer that in two parts. First of all, I don't foresee a substantial change in our focus to support the underlying business and the momentum that has. And secondly, as we just talked about in our guidance, we will continue to support the dividend. So those two areas, you can assume will remain top priorities. As we get into '26, it is a little early to anticipate exactly what '26 will deliver for us. But as you said, clearly, we -- the transition tax will be in the rearview mirror. Some of the M&A payments likewise. And it will give us the opportunity to take a closer look as the M&A and the share repurchase agenda.  

谢谢你，Kaumil。我可以把这个问题分为两部分回答。首先，我并不认为我们在支持核心业务及其发展势头的重点方面会出现大的改变。第二，正如我们在指引里提到的，我们将继续保证股息。因此，这两个领域依然是我们的首要任务。  

至于2026年，目前还为时过早，我们无法准确预估那时的具体情况。但正如你所说，届时我们就不会再背负过渡税的负担，同时部分并购支出也已完成。这将让我们有机会更仔细地评估与并购和股票回购相关的议程。

So I think it's premature to get too specific on what '26 might bring for us. But I'm looking forward actually to having to deal with that challenge in the next year or so. We also have, as you are well aware, we also have a keen focus on the overall health of the balance sheet, and we will take into account the puts and takes on that. We continue to have the tax case in the next couple of years to deal with. So the name of the game for me is to -- it would be to have more to manage in a flexible manner some of the opportunities that may present themselves.  

所以我觉得现在要对2026年的情况做过于具体的预测为时尚早。但我确实期待在明年左右去应对这方面的挑战。正如你所知，我们还会非常关注资产负债表的整体健康状况，并考虑到其中的正反因素。在未来几年里，我们还要继续应对税务案件的影响。对我来说，要点就是，我们应该尽可能保留更多的灵活度，以便能够把握可能出现的一些机会。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Rob Ottenstein from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自Evercore ISI的Rob Ottenstein。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Robert Ottenstein

Great. Thank you. So Walmart has created now, I guess what you call the modern soda shelves. And I'd love to get your thoughts on that category, broadly speaking. Is this something that is a fad in your view? Or is this something that represents some kind of departure and is just very responsive to consumer needs? Is it something like fairlife, where you just have a better product and how do you play in the so-called modern soda area that Walmart seems to at least have some confidence in? Thank you.

很好，谢谢。沃尔玛现在创建了所谓的现代苏打饮料货架。我很想听听您对这个类别的整体看法。在您看来，这是一种短暂的潮流吗？还是代表某种转变，只是对消费者需求的积极响应？这是否类似于fairlife那样，就是有一个更好的产品？您如何看待沃尔玛似乎至少比较有信心的所谓现代苏打饮料领域？谢谢。

James Quincey

Hi, Bob. Yes, look, it is great news that people are innovating and willing to create new brands and dedicate more shelf space to the beverage industry, which is I think goals for the whole idea, this is a vibrant industry with lots of growth. So that first one. Secondly, we -- our total beverage company, we look to compete everywhere we see enduring consumer demand and traction, including some of the stuff that goes here. Look, in the end, these are soda beverages that are great tasting. That's the central idea. And I think to the extent that's enduring, we'll take a really hard look at it. But I think the most important thing to take from this, is the confidence in the overall industry of beverages to continue to grow.

你好，Bob。是的，看到人们在创新、愿意创建新品牌并为饮料行业投入更多货架空间，这是个好消息。我认为这正是整个理念的目标所在，这是一个充满活力且增长迅速的行业。这是第一点。第二，作为一家全品类饮料公司，我们会在看到持久的消费者需求和吸引力的任何地方参与竞争，包括这里的一些产品。归根结底，这些都是口感出众的苏打饮料，这是核心理念。如果这种趋势持续存在，我们会认真关注。但我认为从中最重要的启示是，对整个饮料行业持续增长的信心。

And as John alluded to, and we will talk more at CAGNY, when you look at the track record of the Coca-Cola Company in terms of creating organically and scaling small bolt-on M&A into billion-dollar brands, we are by far and away the clear leaders in the industry and the winners.

正如John提到的，我们将在CAGNY会议上详细讨论，当你看看可口可乐公司在有机创造和通过小型并购将品牌发展成十亿美元规模方面的成功记录，我们无疑是行业中遥遥领先的领导者和赢家。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo. Please go ahead, your line is open.

下一个问题来自富国银行的Chris Carey。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Chris Carey

Hi, everyone. James, you mentioned agricultural commodities. You also I think, said something to the effect of industrial commodities or perhaps moving a bit less, but you're watching developments. I'm assuming you are speaking to aluminum. Can you just maybe provide some context, number one on how incremental moves in aluminum might impact your cost per case outlook, number one. And just related, there is this element of the system will need to respond to incremental inflation from aluminum.

大家好。James，您提到了农产品大宗商品。我想您还说了关于工业大宗商品可能变动较小的情况，但您在关注事态发展。我猜您指的是铝。首先，您能否提供一些背景，说明铝价的增量变动如何影响您的单箱成本展望。其次，与此相关的是，系统需要应对铝价带来的增量通胀。

Can you just talk about comfort that affordability and volume durability will not be impacted if the system needs to respond to climbing inflation. So it is a little bit of a two-part question and the impact to the model but also a bit forward looking and what may be required to protect the model and the impact on the consumer in the coming months. Thanks so much.

您能否谈谈，如果系统需要应对上涨的通胀，您对产品可负担性和销量持久性不会受到影响的信心。这是一个两部分的问题，既涉及对模型的影响，也涉及一些前瞻性内容，以及在未来几个月保护模型和消费者可能需要采取什么措施。非常感谢。

James Quincey

Yes, sure. I mean, Firstly this is predominantly an impact in the North American or in the U.S. business with let's say, the North American business which is obviously a piece of the puzzle. So from a total company perspective, bear in mind this is over just one of the four segments largely speaking, as we sit here today. And of course, as it relates to our strategies, around ensuring affordability and ensuring consumer demand. If one package suffers some, increase in input costs, we continue to have other packaging offerings that will allow us to compete in the affordability space.

好的，当然。首先，这主要影响北美或美国业务，也就是说北美业务显然是整体拼图的一部分。从公司整体角度来看，请记住，就目前而言，这主要影响四个业务部门中的一个。当然，就我们确保可负担性和消费者需求的战略而言，如果某一种包装的投入成本上升，我们仍有其他包装选择，使我们能够在可负担性领域保持竞争力。

So for example, if aluminum cans become more expensive, we can put more emphasis on PET bottles, et cetera, et cetera. So we will adapt the packaging strategy in function of change in the relative input costs of what goes into that. So that is part of the total adaptation plan that we use around the world. Second -- so I don't believe if part of the question in the second half is, do you think this is going to fundamentally undermine the ability of the system to do well in volume in 2025? The short answer is no. I think we control enough variables that we can adapt and mitigate our way through what is happening because it is a combination of hedging, which we use on the key materials. It is an opportunity to do mix management between different packaging materials.

例如，如果铝罐变得更贵，我们可以更多地强调PET瓶等等。因此，我们将根据相对投入成本的变化来调整包装策略。这是我们在全球使用的整体适应计划的一部分。第二，如果问题的后半部分是，您认为这是否会从根本上损害系统在2025年实现良好销量的能力？简短的回答是不会。我认为我们控制着足够多的变量，可以通过适应和缓解来应对当前发生的情况，因为这涉及对关键材料的对冲组合。这是在不同包装材料之间进行组合管理的机会。

And of course, we are going to look at where the supply is from because it is all about relative pricing. To the extent relative pricing changes, we can seek to adapt. And so I think this is mitigatable and manageable and one of the dynamic elements of 2025 that I think we can get through.

当然，我们还要关注供应来源，因为这都与相对定价有关。在相对定价发生变化的情况下，我们可以寻求适应。因此，我认为这是可以缓解和管理的，是2025年动态因素之一，我认为我们能够度过这个阶段。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Please go ahead, your line is open.

下一个问题来自摩根大通的Andrea Teixeira。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Andrea Teixeira

Thank you operator. And hi James, John. I have a question on Mexico and then a follow-up on mix. On Mexico, you have obviously managed cycles, regulation tax as well and arguably, you count on one of the best bottling partners there. But can you comment on the playbook? And if you are embedding a deceleration in volumes there? And can you talk about the potential risk of recession or -- or would we meet this is at a stronger dollar, meaning obviously, more pesos to their pockets, partially offsetting the slowdown? And then on the second point, you both spend a fair amount of time discussing the accelerating innovation results, which are remarkable.

谢谢调度员。James和John你们好。我有一个关于墨西哥的问题，然后是关于组合的后续问题。关于墨西哥，你们显然已经管理了周期、监管税收，而且可以说，你们在那里拥有最好的装瓶合作伙伴之一。但你能谈谈策略吗？你们是否预计那里的销量会减速？你能谈谈经济衰退的潜在风险吗？或者，我们是否会遇到美元走强的情况，这显然意味着他们口袋里有更多比索，部分抵消了经济放缓？然后是第二点，你们都花了相当多时间讨论加速创新的成果，这些成果非常显著。

On the strong delivery in North America, I believe you posted like 12% growth in price mix, how much is that driven by fairlife or away from home recovery? And should we expect that comparison to lead to deceleration there? Or you still see a lot of potential for fairlife distribution and potentially better execution on on-premise ahead? Thank you.

关于北美地区的强劲表现，我相信你们公布的价格组合增长约为12%，这其中有多少是由fairlife或外卖市场复苏推动的？我们是否应该预期这种比较会导致那里的增长放缓？或者你们仍然看到fairlife分销和现场执行方面有很大潜力？谢谢。

James Quincey

Wow. Okay. That is a lot of questions in there. Let me try and pack it into two. North American pricing, about half of the North American pricing that you see in Q4 is mix. And therefore, you can basically kind of park that relative to 2025. And so and it is not just fairlife. But if you just take half of that and call that price mix, that is going to continue to moderate as you go into 2025 in the North American sense and the mix will also moderate in 2025. We will continue to grow fairlife in 2025, but we're given the runaway success of the products, we're reaching the need to get the New York factory that we've been building up and running in order to continue unconstrained growth.

哇，好的。这里有很多问题。让我试着把它归纳为两点。北美定价方面，你在第四季度看到的北美定价中约一半是组合因素。因此，你基本上可以将其与2025年相对应。而且这不仅仅是fairlife的因素。但如果你只取其中的一半并称之为价格组合，那么从北美的角度来看，这将在2025年继续趋于温和，组合也将在2025年趋于温和。我们将在2025年继续发展fairlife，但考虑到产品的巨大成功，我们需要让我们一直在建设的纽约工厂投入运营，以继续保持不受限制的增长。

So we will see some moderation of the fairlife growth in '25, which will obviously then moderate the mix. So much more normalization of U.S. price/mix in 2025. And then Mexico, I mean unpacking the Mexican playbook is a longer conversation, but I think is a place where par excellence, we have had a dedicated and consistent execution of the play, the overall playbook, whether it's great quality marketing, great quality innovation, great quality execution, great quality RGM. So pricing options. I mean the one place you can go and find a package at almost every price point is Mexico. It's one of the broadest beverage portfolios in the world in terms of covering off all the categories. So it is been a long-term dedication by the system in Mexico to build the total beverage company with a product and a package and a price point for everyone, everywhere. And of course, we commented just on the peso, we did call out FX headwinds in 2025, but they have taken on a different nature that we're not expecting large impacts to come from the intense inflation countries we are expecting the house headwinds that come from some of the more normal, let's say, emerging markets like Mexico, and that's part of the headwind you see on the peso conversion to the U.S. dollar for 2025.

因此，我们将看到fairlife的增长在25年有所放缓，这显然会使组合趋于温和。因此2025年美国价格/组合将更加正常化。然后是墨西哥，我的意思是，解释墨西哥的策略是一个更长的话题，但我认为这是一个卓越的地方，我们在那里始终如一地执行整体策略，无论是优质营销、优质创新、优质执行还是优质的收入增长管理。关于定价选择，我的意思是，墨西哥是你可以找到几乎每个价位包装的地方。就覆盖所有品类而言，这是世界上最广泛的饮料组合之一。因此，墨西哥系统一直致力于建设一个全面的饮料公司，为所有人、所有地方提供产品、包装和价格点。当然，我们刚才谈到了比索，我们确实提到了2025年的汇率逆风，但它们具有不同的性质，我们预计不会受到高通胀国家的重大影响，我们预计会受到一些更正常的新兴市场（如墨西哥）的阻力，这是你在2025年看到的比索兑美元汇率逆风的部分原因。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Peter Grom from UBS. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自瑞银的Peter Grom。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Peter Grom

Thanks, operator. Good morning. Everyone. So James, I was hoping to follow up on your response to Dara's question. And I apologize if I misheard this, but I think you mentioned organic growth to be a bit more weighted to price relative to volume, which isn't entirely surprising. And not to get too granular, but I wasn't sure if you were implying that you were expecting volume growth to kind of fall short of the 2% to 3% growth we typically see or just at the lower-end of that range. And I'd just ask that in the context of 2% unit case volume growth existing the year. You touched on a lot of these more challenged markets getting better in the quarter. So it would seem that you have some pretty nice momentum exiting the year and 4Q exit rate would be a good place to start. But I'm not sure if there is maybe some offsets or areas of concern that we might not be thinking about. Thanks.

谢谢调度员。大家早上好。James，我希望能就您对Dara问题的回答进行追问。如果我听错了请原谅，但我想您提到有机增长会更多地偏重于价格而非销量，这并不完全令人意外。虽然不想过于具体，但我不确定您是在暗示预期销量增长可能低于我们通常看到的2%到3%的增长，还是仅仅处于该范围的低端。我想在年末2%的单箱销量增长的背景下问这个问题。您提到很多这些面临挑战的市场在本季度有所改善。因此，看起来您在年末有相当不错的增长势头，第四季度的退出率将是一个很好的起点。但我不确定是否存在一些我们可能没有考虑到的抵消因素或需要关注的领域。谢谢。

James Quincey

Yes. Peter, yes, I think you've got what I said to Dara correctly. Yes, I mean, if you just take 2024, we did 2% in the fourth quarter. We did 1% overall for the year. So yes, I mean what I was saying is implying we're at [2%, 1%-2%] (ph) kind of floating around that sort of range with a compensating factor on the pricing side. So we still get up into the 5% to 6% range. So I think you've got it clearly. And I think -- also, I think John made a comment earlier in terms of the time during the year that Q2 is clearly going to be a tougher cycling quarter. But overall for the year, we feel we are coming in with momentum. There are a decent number of unknowns and a dynamic environment '25. We believe we can manage through. And from a volume perspective, I think I like to think it is going to be a little better than '24 overall, but it is in that sort of ballpark.

是的，Peter，我认为你正确理解了我对Dara说的话。是的，如果只看2024年，我们第四季度实现了2%的增长，全年总体增长1%。所以是的，我的意思是暗示我们在[2%，1%-2%]这个范围内浮动，价格方面有补偿因素。因此我们仍然能达到5%到6%的范围。所以我认为你理解得很清楚。而且，我认为——John早些时候也提到了年内的时间安排，第二季度显然将是一个更具挑战性的季度。但就全年而言，我们感觉我们正带着增长势头前进。2025年存在相当多的未知因素和动态环境。我们相信我们能够应对。从销量角度来看，我认为整体上会比24年略好，但也就是在那个范围内。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Charlie Higgs from Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead, your line is open.

下一个问题来自Redburn Atlantic的Charlie Higgs。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Charlie Higgs

Hi, James, John, hope you both well. I've got a question on India, please, which had a good 2024. And more broadly, it's been a great market for you over the past few years. I saw in Q4 that you refranchised 40% to a local partner. And I was just wondering if you could comment on that and what attributes that local partner brings that perhaps could even accelerate the engine business to the next level? Thank you.

你们好，James和John，希望你们都好。我有一个关于印度的问题，印度在2024年表现不错。更广泛地说，过去几年它一直是你们的一个很好的市场。我看到在第四季度，你们将40%的业务重新特许给了一个本地合作伙伴。我想知道你们能否就此发表评论，以及这个本地合作伙伴带来了什么特质，可能会将引擎业务推向下一个水平？谢谢。

John Murphy

Thanks Charlie. I just came back from a trip to India. So maybe I'll take this one. The refranchising program that we've had in place continues to move ahead. And India is no different to other parts of the world. We look for a certain profile of partner. Those who are ambitious as we are to capture the opportunity, we have the capital, who have the ability to build capability over time. And we believe that our new partner there ticks the box very handsomely on all of these attributes.

谢谢Charlie。我刚从印度出差回来。所以也许我来回答这个问题。我们正在实施的重新特许计划继续向前推进。印度与世界其他地方没有什么不同。我们寻找具有特定特征的合作伙伴。那些与我们一样有雄心抓住机遇的伙伴，我们有资本，他们有能力随时间建立能力。我们相信我们在那里的新合作伙伴在所有这些特质上都表现出色。

So you can just think of it as another chapter in the refranchising program, not just for India but for those remaining in our portfolio. And the Indian market has got a tremendous amount of runway ahead. The environment there is pretty vibrant tremendous competitive set. And we believe that the Jubilant group coming in is going to add tremendously to our abilities to continue to step change our execution in the marketplace. And as we continue to work on the refranchising program will advise in the coming months and into next year as to how that shapes out.

所以你可以把它看作是重新特许计划的另一个篇章，不仅是针对印度，也是针对我们投资组合中剩余的部分。印度市场前面还有巨大的发展空间。那里的环境非常活跃，竞争格局巨大。我们相信Jubilant集团的加入将极大地增强我们在市场上继续实现执行突破的能力。随着我们继续推进重新特许计划，我们将在未来几个月乃至明年就其发展情况提供建议。

Operator

调度员

Our next question comes from Bill Chappell from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

下一个问题来自Truist Securities的Bill Chappell。请讲，您的线路已接通。

Bill Chappell

Thanks, good morning. I just want to follow-up on kind of the commentary on the hyperinflation environment, you are kind of comment of moderating. And I understand it is moderating, but I believe the pricing -- a lot of the pricing you took was kind of more at second half, so that will carry through. I don't think you -- these countries have really slowed down in their inflationary environment. So are you saying that you are kind of done with pricing there and -- or that you would be taking price cuts. So I'm -- it seems like I understand you have a general guidance for this year, but it seems like the hyperinflation environment, there is not a real reason for them to moderate, but so much at least for the next couple of quarters.

谢谢，早上好。我想跟进一下关于高通胀环境的评论，你们提到通胀正在缓和。我理解它在缓和，但我认为定价——你们采取的许多定价措施是在下半年进行的，所以这将会持续。我不认为这些国家的通胀环境真的已经放缓。所以你们是在说已经完成了那里的定价调整——或者你们会降价吗？所以我——似乎我理解你们对今年有总体指导，但似乎高通胀环境，至少在接下来的几个季度内，没有真正的理由会缓和这么多。

James Quincey

Bill, yes, absolutely not taking the foot off the pedal in terms of passing through where we have a lot of input costs coming in. So it's not that we are not going to be passing through the input costs in those marketplaces. There are -- it was very concentrated these high inflationary countries, and there has been inflationary moderation. I mean, if you look at Argentina for the for the sake of the single dealer example, the monthly inflation rate has dropped markedly through 2024. I think it is down to a few percent a month now or 4% a month. So you definitely see a moderation.

Bill，是的，在面对大量投入成本上涨时，我们绝对不会放松传导成本的力度。所以并不是说我们不会在这些市场传导投入成本。这些高通胀国家是非常集中的，而且通胀已经有所缓和。我的意思是，如果你以阿根廷为例，月度通胀率在2024年已经明显下降。我认为现在每月已经降到几个百分点或4%。所以你肯定能看到缓和。

Yes, you are right that in a sense, you'll see more of it in the first half and the first quarter than you will in the back end of the year, but inflation has definitively dropped in a lot of these countries because it was very concentrated in a handful Argentina, a couple of the African countries and Turkey. And so the inflation has come down. There's -- but we will continue. If it doesn't moderate, if there's other countries that fall into this category, because its input costs go up, we will pass those through in price. Even though we look to execute all our affordability strategies, we have to pass through the costs in those sorts of environments because it's just too overwhelming.

是的，从某种意义上说你是对的，你会在上半年和第一季度看到比年底更多的情况，但在很多这些国家，通胀已经明确下降，因为它集中在少数几个国家，包括阿根廷、几个非洲国家和土耳其。所以通胀已经下降了。但是——我们会继续。如果通胀不缓和，如果有其他国家因为投入成本上升而落入这个类别，我们会通过价格传导这些成本。尽管我们致力于执行所有的可负担性策略，但在这类环境下我们必须传导成本，因为压力实在太大了。

Operator

主持人

Question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open

提问来自TD Cowen的Robert Moskow。请开始提问。您的线路已打开

Robert Moskow

罗伯特·莫斯科

Hi thanks. I wanted to maybe push a little bit more on your commentary that you can -- you change your mix of packaging to react to aluminum tariffs or higher aluminum costs. Is there any way to kind of delineate this, like how much of a mix shift is necessary to go more toward plastic, less towards aluminum cans in the event of a sharp increase in can cost. It may not be a fair question, but is a 1% change in mix like big enough to really influence the cost structure? Or does it have to be something much bigger than that?

你好，谢谢。我想再深入一点探讨你们的观点，即你们可以——你们可以通过改变包装组合来应对铝关税或更高的铝成本。有没有办法对此进行区分，比如当罐价大幅上涨时，需要在塑料和铝罐之间进行多大程度的包装组合转变？这可能不是个公平的问题，但仅仅1%的组合变化就足以真正影响成本结构吗？还是说必须要大得多的变化？

James Quincey

詹姆斯·昆西

Look, I think we are in danger of exaggerating the impact of the 25% increase in the aluminum price relative to the total system. It is not insignificant, but it is not going to radically change a multi-billion dollar U.S. business. And packaging is only -- is a small component of the total cost structure. So firstly, it's not a multi-million dollar -- billion dollar problem relative to the input cost. It is a much more manageable number. And so between mitigation of supply chain, sourcing, weights of the cans, price increase of the cans at some level potentially switch to the PET. It's a manageable problem in the context of the total U.S. business. And I don't think we should -- you should not conclude that this is some huge swing factor in the U.S. business. It is a cost. It will have to be managed. It would be better not to have it relative to the U.S. business, but we are going to manage our way through.

看，我认为我们有夸大铝价上涨25%对整个体系影响的风险。确实不是无关紧要，但也不会根本改变一个规模达数十亿美元的美国业务。而且包装只是——只是整体成本结构中很小的一部分。首先，从投入成本的角度来看，这并不是一个数百万或数十亿美元的问题，而是一个更容易管理的数字。因此，通过供应链、采购和罐体重量的管控，以及某种程度上提高罐价或可能改用PET，在美国整体业务的背景下，这个问题是可控的。我不认为我们应该——你也不应该认为这会成为美国业务中的巨大波动因素。它是一项成本，需要加以应对。相较于美国业务来说，最好是没有这个因素，但我们会应对好这一切。

Operator  

主持人

Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead, your line is open.  

我们下一位提问来自Piper Sandler的Michael Lavery。请开始提问，您的线路已打开。

Michael Lavery  

迈克尔·拉弗里

Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to unpack Asia Pacific a little bit more. You had price mix down there partially offset by some pricing. But in the full year market share commentary, which I know is a little bit apples and oranges, South Korea and Japan grew or gained share and then Indonesia and Bangladesh declined or lost share that would seem like a positive for mix. So maybe how do you reconcile those? What are some of the moving parts? And just help us understand that a little bit better.  

谢谢，早上好。我只是想进一步分析一下亚太地区。你们在那里的价格组合出现下滑，但部分被一些定价所抵消。不过，在全年市场份额评论中（我知道这有些不同维度的比较），韩国和日本出现增长或获得份额，而印尼和孟加拉则有所下降或失去份额，这似乎对组合影响是正面的。那么你们是如何调和这些状况的呢？有哪些动态因素？能不能帮我们更好地理解一下？

James Quincey  

詹姆斯·昆西

Sure. I think the biggest factor here in Asia Pacific in Q4 is what we are cycling from last year. So I would encourage you, as you look at Asia, Asia is true overall, but Asia Pacific, in particular, for the reasons you called out, you've got some very developed markets like Japan and Australia and some very emerging markets like Bangladesh and Indonesia. And their relative volume performances can make a big difference to mix. So what you are seeing is a base effect from 2023 coming over, but I would encourage any analysis of price mix in Asia Pacific to be multi-quarter because it is just very choppy for the very reasons you just called out.  

当然。我认为亚太地区在第四季度最大的因素是我们正处于去年基数效应的周期。我想强调，当你分析亚洲时，整体层面而言亚洲的情况如此，但在亚太地区尤其如此，正如你所指出的，既有日本和澳大利亚这样非常成熟的市场，也有像孟加拉和印尼这样非常新兴的市场。它们各自的销量表现会对组合产生重大影响。所以你所看到的是从2023年延续过来的基数效应，但我建议对于亚太地区的价格组合分析应放在多个季度来看，因为正如你所指出的那样，那里存在很多波动。

Okay, Perfect. Thanks very much, everyone. To summarize, we are winning in the marketplace. We're going to continue to maintain our agility and focus on getting better on everything we do. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver on our 2025 guidance and create value for our stakeholders over the long-term. We look forward to discussing more next week at CAGNY. Thanks for your interest, the investment in our company and for joining us this morning. Thank you very much, everyone.  

好的，非常感谢各位。总的来说，我们在市场上表现良好，我们将继续保持灵活性，专注于在各方面不断提升。我们相信，我们已经为实现2025年的目标做好了准备，并在长期为我们的利益相关者创造价值。我们期待在下周的CAGNY会议上进一步讨论。感谢你们对我们的关注、对我们公司的投资以及今天加入我们的会议。非常感谢各位。

Operator  

主持人

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.  

各位女士们、先生们，本次电话会议到此结束。感谢各位的参与。现在各位可以挂断电话了。