Operator

主持人

Greetings, and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q4 Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. \[Operator Instructions] A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. \[Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to your host, Joseph Suarez, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

各位好，欢迎参加 Constellation Brands 2025 财年第四季度业绩电话会议。当前所有参会者均处于仅收听模式。\[操作员提示] 正式发言结束后将进行问答环节。\[操作员提示] 提醒各位，本次会议正在录音。现在我很高兴将电话交给本次会议主持人、投资者关系副总裁 Joseph Suarez 先生，请开始。

Joseph Suarez

约瑟夫·苏亚雷斯

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, all, and welcome to Constellation Brands Q4 and full year fiscal ‘25 conference call. I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO, and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. We trust that you had the opportunity to review the news release, CEO, and CFO commentary and accompanying slides made available yesterday evening in the investors section of our company's website, [www.cbrands.com](http://www.cbrands.com). As we have received a couple questions regarding certain figures contained in our slides, please note that we expect our beer net sales growth rate for fiscal ‘26 to be between 0% to 3% and for fiscal ‘27 and ‘28 to be 2% to 4%. And our operating income growth rate for fiscal ‘26 is expected to be between 0% to 2% percent and for fiscal ‘27 to ‘28 we expect operating margins to be approximately 39% to 40%.

谢谢你，Kevin。大家早上好，欢迎参加 Constellation Brands 2025 财年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议。今天上午与我一起参会的还有我们的首席执行官 Bill Newlands 和首席财务官 Garth Hankinson。我们相信各位已经阅读了昨晚发布在公司官网投资者关系栏目（[www.cbrands.com）的新闻稿、首席执行官及首席财务官致辞以及配套幻灯片。鉴于我们收到关于幻灯片中某些数据的提问，请留意：我们预计](http://www.cbrands.com）的新闻稿、首席执行官及首席财务官致辞以及配套幻灯片。鉴于我们收到关于幻灯片中某些数据的提问，请留意：我们预计) 2026 财年啤酒净销售额增速为 0% 至 3%，而 2027 及 2028 财年为 2% 至 4%；2026 财年经营收入增速预计为 0% 至 2%，而 2027 至 2028 财年的经营利润率预计约为 39% 至 40%。

On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measures and non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website. And we encourage you to also refer to the news release and Constellation’s SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward-looking statements made on this call.

在此提醒各位，本次电话会议中讨论的非公认会计准则（Non-GAAP）财务指标及其与最直接可比的公认会计准则（GAAP）指标的对账信息已包含在新闻稿和公司网站中。我们也建议您查阅新闻稿及 Constellation 提交给美国证监会（SEC）的文件，以了解可能影响本次前瞻性陈述的风险因素。

Before turning the call over to Bill and Garth, please keep in mind that, as usual, answers provided today will be referencing comparable results, unless otherwise specified, and that any references to expectations for fiscal ’26 to fiscal ’28 reflect the anticipated impact of the tariffs announced by the US government on April 2nd and the Canadian government on March 4th of this year, inclusive of the delay in the effectiveness of certain tariffs announced by the US government yesterday which will particularly impact the Wine and Spirits Business.

在把会议交给 Bill 和 Garth 之前，请各位牢记，与往常一样，除非另有说明，今天给出的解答都将以可比口径数据为准；任何对 2026 至 2028 财年预期的提及均已考虑美国政府今年 4 月 2 日及加拿大政府 3 月 4 日宣布的关税所带来的预期影响，其中也包括美国政府昨日宣布的某些关税生效延期，这些措施将特别影响我们的葡萄酒及烈酒业务。

Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourselves to one question per person, which will help us to end our call on time. Thanks in advance, and now here is Bill.

最后，延续以往季度的做法，请每位提问者限制在一个问题以内，以便我们准时结束本次会议。先行致谢，接下来请 Bill 发言。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Thanks, Joe, and welcome, everyone, to our Q4 and full year fiscal ‘25 call. As usual, I will outline a few overarching highlights, but we will then move immediately to Q\&A as our broader commentary was provided to you yesterday. So, let's get going.

感谢你，Joe，欢迎各位参加我们的 2025 财年第四季度及全年业绩电话会议。按照惯例，我将先简要概述几项核心亮点，随后立即进入问答环节，因为更详细的评论已在昨天提供。那就让我们开始吧。

In a tough socioeconomic environment, we are taking decisive actions designed to continue to support our industry-leading Beer Business, reset our cost base, and redefine our portfolio. More specifically, first, in fiscal ‘25, despite a softer consumer demand backdrop largely driven by what we believe to be non-structural socioeconomic factors, we continue to deliver enterprise net sales growth, realize substantial comparable operating margin improvement, and achieve double-digit comparable EPS growth.

在艰难的社会经济环境下，我们正在采取果断行动，旨在继续支持我们行业领先的啤酒业务、重塑成本基础并重新定义我们的产品组合。具体而言，第一，在 2025 财年，尽管消费者需求因我们认为是非结构性社会经济因素而放缓，我们仍实现了企业净销售额增长、可比经营利润率大幅提升，并取得了可比每股收益的两位数增长。

Second, looking ahead, while we expect these non-structural socioeconomic factors affecting consumer demand to gradually stabilize and subside, we remain focused on driving distribution gains, on launching disciplined innovation, and on deploying incremental marketing investments to support the growth of our Beer Business, all while continuing to deliver best-in-class operating margins.

第二，展望未来，尽管我们预计这些影响消费者需求的非结构性社会经济因素将逐步稳定并减弱，我们仍将专注于扩大分销、通过有纪律的创新推出新品，并加大营销投入以支持啤酒业务增长，同时继续保持行业领先的经营利润率。

Third, in addition, we expect significant improvements in the performance of our Wine and Spirits Business beyond fiscal ‘26, following the anticipated closing of the 2025 Wine Divestitures Transaction that is primarily centered around the sale of the remaining mainstream wine brands in that portfolio as well as the implementation of associated restructuring actions expected to yield over \$200 million in net annualized cost savings across the enterprise by fiscal ‘28.

第三，此外，随着预计 2025 年葡萄酒资产剥离交易完成——该交易主要涉及出售组合中剩余的主流葡萄酒品牌——以及相关重组措施的实施，我们预计在 2026 财年以后，葡萄酒和烈酒业务的表现将显著改善，预计到 2028 财年，全公司每年可实现逾 2 亿美元的净年度化成本节约。

Fourth, against that backdrop, we are targeting to deliver approximately \$9 billion in operating cash flow from fiscal ‘26 to ‘28, and approximately \$6 billion in free cash flow as we continue to invest primarily in the modular development of our third brewery, Veracruz, and modular additions at our existing facilities in Mexico.

And fifth, in line with this strong cash flow generation and having achieved our comparable net leverage ratio target in fiscal ‘25, we remain committed to a disciplined and balanced capital deployment framework, including our 30% dividend payout ratio, and executing share repurchases against our new three-year \$4 billion authorization.

第五，鉴于强劲的现金流表现并在 2025 财年达到可比净杠杆率目标，我们将继续坚持纪律严明且平衡的资本配置框架，包括维持 30% 的分红派息率，并按照新的三年期 40 亿美元授权计划实施股份回购。

And with that, Garth and I will be happy to take your questions.

说到这里，Garth 和我很乐意回答各位的问题。

Question-and-Answer Session

问答环节

Operator

主持人

\[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from Lauren Lieberman from Barclays. Your line is now live.

\[操作员提示] 我们的第一个提问来自巴克莱银行的 Lauren Lieberman。您的线路已接通。

Lauren Lieberman

Hi, great. Good morning and thanks a lot for the question. I wanted to know if you could comment more specifically on tariffs. Is the Beer Business currently USMCA certified so we can get some visibility on what is baked in terms of tariffs with regard to Mexico? And also, what else is baked in terms of aluminum cans and so on? So more visibility there would be really helpful. And then, I was also just curious on the longer-term forecast around beer and the notion of socioeconomic non-structural dynamics. But how are you thinking about beer industry growth over this projection timeline? Thanks.

您好，早上好，非常感谢您回答我的问题。我想请您更具体地谈谈关税问题。公司的啤酒业务目前是否符合美墨加协定（USMCA）的规定？这样我们就能了解针对墨西哥有关关税的具体假设。另外，还有铝罐等方面的关税假设也请说明，以便我们能更清晰地了解影响。最后，我也想了解关于啤酒长期预测以及所谓“社会经济非结构性因素”这一概念的情况。在这一预测期间，您对啤酒行业增长的看法如何？谢谢。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Sure, why don't I start with the first part of the question? We have been USMCA compliant since it was implemented several years ago and remain USMCA compliant today.

当然，我先回答第一个问题。自从几年前美墨加协定实施以来，我们一直符合 USMCA 的相关规定，并且至今依然如此。

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

In addition to that, Lauren, the guidance that we provided does include the impact for all tariffs announced by the U.S. government on April 2nd and by the Canadian government on March 4th. For our Beer Business, this includes the impact on our aluminum cans. And for our Wine Business, this includes the impact for our brands coming out of New Zealand and Italy into the U.S. and for our brands from the U.S. into Canada.

此外，Lauren，我们在指引中已经纳入了美国政府于 4 月 2 日以及加拿大政府于 3 月 4 日宣布的全部关税影响。对我们的啤酒业务而言，这包括铝罐所受的影响。对我们的葡萄酒业务而言，这包括新西兰和意大利输往美国的品牌，以及美国输往加拿大的品牌所受到的影响。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Relative to the longer-range perspective on beer, there's been obviously a lot of what we see as near-term headwinds, but we think that those over time, particularly as the Hispanic consumer who's been particularly challenged, gets back to more sort of normal operating procedure.

至于啤酒的长期前景，显而易见，我们目前面临许多短期逆风，但我们认为随着时间的推移，尤其是受影响较大的西班牙裔消费者逐渐恢复到更正常的消费模式后，这些压力将会减轻。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Nik Modi from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一个问题来自加拿大皇家银行资本市场的 Nik Modi。您的线路已接通。

Nik Modi

Yeah, thank you. Good morning, everyone. Bill, maybe if I could just kind of piggyback off Lauren's question on the long-term beer outlook. I get the fact that things are really kind of choppy right now, but the cut in the guide just kind of over the next couple of years seemed a bit extreme relative to what you guys have been doing, even with the slowing down that we've been seeing, that I think we can all agree some of it is very temporary.

好的，谢谢。大家早上好。Bill，我想延续一下 Lauren 关于啤酒长期前景的问题。我理解目前的环境非常波动，但在接下来几年里你们的指引下调似乎相当激进，相对于你们一直以来的表现——即便在我们看到的放缓环境下——我想我们都认为其中有些影响是非常短暂的。

So when I speak to the trade, it's pretty clear nothing has really changed on an underlying basis with the brands, the momentum, kind of how retailers are looking to space your portfolio in a bigger sense, greater manner. So just wanted to kind of get your philosophy on the range of being down, this up 2% to 4%, which is versus the 7% to 9% and kind of how you're thinking about that. I mean, are you just kind of assuming things to stay the way they are? And if there's upside, great. So, any context on that would be really, really helpful.

当我与渠道沟通时，很明显品牌的基本面、动能以及零售商对你们产品组合的陈列方式都没有真正发生变化。因此，我想了解你们针对净销售增速从原先 7%–9% 调整到 -2% 至 +4% 这一区间的思路。你们是否是基于现状不变的假设？如果出现上行，那当然更好。对此任何背景说明都会非常有帮助。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Sure. Well, let's start with the most important thing, Nik. And today's Nik's birthday, so, happy birthday, Nik. Now getting on to the main point. Most important thing, as we look at it, relative to the medium term, is our brand health. And fortunately, all of our brand health metrics remain extremely strong.

好的。那么让我们从最重要的事情开始，Nik。今天是 Nik 的生日，生日快乐，Nik。现在回到正题。从中期角度看，对我们而言最重要的是品牌健康状况。幸运的是，我们所有的品牌健康指标依旧十分强劲。

We're very focused on what we can control, and that's distribution. It's focused innovation. It's making sure that our execution is top-notch. You noted we gained over 10% in share of space in the resets that occurred last year, so that remains a positive factor. It's very difficult to know exactly how long some of these socioeconomic issues are going to continue.

我们非常专注于可控因素，也就是分销、针对性创新，并确保执行达到一流水平。如你所述，在去年的货架重置中，我们的陈列空间份额提升了逾 10%，这仍是一个积极因素。要精确判断这些社会经济问题将持续多久非常困难。

Certainly, we know that the Hispanic consumer is particularly concerned about a number of issues, and we would certainly expect some improvement as those consumers become more comfortable and less concerned about the many issues that follow them. We don't have an exact answer to when that is going to moderate. And I think it's important to note that the guidance that we have provided reflects the fact that there are a lot of unknowns today, including things like tariffs, but also the impact that we're seeing with the Hispanic consumer. Until we get a more definitive answer to some of those questions, it's a tough answer to give.

当然，我们知道西班牙裔消费者对诸多问题尤为担忧，我们预计随着他们逐渐安心、不再过度担心这些困扰，情况将有所改善。我们尚无法精准预测这种情况何时会缓和。我认为必须指出，我们给出的指引反映了眼下仍有许多未知因素，包括关税，以及我们在西班牙裔消费者层面观察到的影响。在这些问题有更明确答案之前，很难给出准确回应。

Fortunately, that consumer, the Hispanic consumer, continues to show extraordinarily loyalty to our brands. And over the long-term, that will moderate and continue to allow us to gain share as we have for the last several years.

幸运的是，西班牙裔消费者依旧对我们的品牌展现出极高的忠诚度。从长期来看，这一情况将会逐步缓和，并继续让我们像过去几年一样持续提升市场份额。

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

And, Nik, let me just add a couple of the actual brand health stats that Bill referenced. We've actually seen some pretty significant increases in aided awareness and consideration from Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico, which is in line with what we would expect from the media investment that we put in place this last year. All brands are holding steady on measures of popularity across all adults, Hispanic and Gen Z. Pacifico is up statistically significantly in California and all our brands are holding steady on the other metrics that we track, including is this a brand I love, is it a brand everyone likes, is it a good value, is it a brand with heritage and net favorability.

Nik，我补充几项 Bill 提到的实际品牌健康数据。过去一年中，得益于我们的媒体投入，Modelo、Corona 和 Pacifico 的辅助知名度及购买考虑度均显著提高。所有品牌在全体成人、西班牙裔和 Z 世代人群中的受欢迎度指标保持稳定。Pacifico 在加利福尼亚的表现呈现统计学上的显著增长，而所有品牌在我们跟踪的其他指标上也保持稳健，包括“我喜爱的品牌”“人人喜欢的品牌”“物有所值”“具有传承的品牌”以及净好感度。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问的是高盛的邦妮·赫佐格女士，您的线路已经接通。

Bonnie Herzog

邦妮·赫佐格

All right. Thank you. Good morning. I just wanted to ask a quick follow-up on -- in the context of your cut to your medium-term algo, what are you assuming for the beer category growth or I guess declines over the next few years?

好的，谢谢。早上好。我想快速跟进一下——鉴于你们下调了中期算法，你们对未来几年啤酒品类的增长或下滑有何假设？

And then I wanted to ask about margins, beer margins. Could you maybe walk through the different puts and takes that are going to allow you to deliver your best-in-class beer margins of 39% to 40% over the next few years despite, I guess, a considerable expected slowdown in volume and some tariff risks? I mean, you mentioned some cost cutting, so could you give us some more color on that and possibly quantify? Thank you.

然后我想问一下利润率，具体是啤酒业务的利润率。能否解释一下各种有利和不利因素，说明在预计销量大幅放缓并面临关税风险的情况下，你们如何在未来几年仍能实现 39% 至 40% 的行业领先啤酒利润率？你们提到了成本削减，能否进一步阐述并尽量量化？谢谢。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

I think Slide 18 is going to help you on some of those broad answers, but our view is, over the course of the medium-term, the beer industry overall will likely go back to what it has done over the last several years, which is roughly flat to down 2%, somewhere in that range. And as we've said on prior calls, we've seen a significant delta between whatever the beer industry is and our performance against it, where we have gained significant share.

我认为第 18 张幻灯片能够回答其中一些宏观问题，但在我们看来，在中期内，啤酒行业整体可能会回到过去数年的表现——大致呈持平到下滑 2% 的区间。正如我们之前的电话中所说，无论行业表现如何，我们与其相比存在显著的差距，我们一直在抢占大量市场份额。

We expect that that overall approach is going to continue and that we'll get back to a more normal, I'll call it normal trajectory into the medium-term. As I spoke on a couple of the prior questions, how quickly that comes around will largely depend on what consumer sentiment is as we move forward.

我们预计这种整体态势将持续，我们将在中期回到更为正常——我称之为正常的——轨迹。至于这种恢复会有多快，很大程度上取决于未来消费者的情绪。

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

Yeah, and then, Bonnie, on margins, I apologize, this is probably a bit of a boring story, because I think we've said it a few times before, nothing's really changed. First of all, we're going to manage our footprint in the modular fashion that we've referenced previously. So we're going to limit the impact of depreciation and overhead absorption issues.

是的，邦妮，关于利润率，抱歉这可能听起来有些乏味，因为我们之前已经多次提到，基本没有变化。首先，我们将按此前提到的模块化方式来管理产能布局，以限制折旧和固定成本分摊带来的影响。

In addition to that, we'll have incremental volume growth. We'll maintain our 1% to 2% pricing algorithm. And certainly, we'll continue to -- on with our cost savings initiatives. Obviously, those tailwinds will be offset on a year-to-year basis by inflation and tariffs. But net-net, when we put all that together, we think we can continue to deliver best-in-class margins at 39% to 40%.

此外，我们还将实现增量销量增长，保持 1% 至 2% 的定价策略，并持续推进成本节约计划。当然，这些顺风因素每年都会被通胀和关税所部分抵消。但综合来看，我们认为仍能维持 39% 至 40% 的行业领先利润率。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Rob Ottenstein from Evercore ISI. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问的是 Evercore ISI 的 Rob Ottenstein 先生，您的线路已经接通。

Rob Ottenstein

罗布·奥滕斯坦

Great. Thank you very much. I just want to make sure I get this as crystal clear as possible. I'm wondering if you can just kind of go through again how you're thinking about free cash flow deployment and given the fact that you've shrunk the Wine and Spirits Business or repositioned it and given the fact that at least over the next couple years, you expect less growth from the beer side of the business, you're reducing CapEx.

非常感谢。我想尽可能把情况弄得非常清楚。我想听您再次说明一下，公司如何考虑自由现金流的部署；鉴于你们已经缩减或重新定位了葡萄酒和烈酒业务，并且至少在未来几年预计啤酒业务的增长放缓，同时减少资本支出。

Are you today, and kind of going forward, more open to larger acquisitions? Are you spending more time on acquisitions, given the increased cash flow? So, I'd love to get your thoughts on that. I know you've re-upped the authorization on the share buyback. Tied to that, is that a strong commitment that you will buy back? I think it was \$4 billion worth of stock over the next three years, just trying to get a sense of the priorities there and what is kind of guidance versus actual commitments along those lines? Thank you.

在今天以及未来的规划中，你们是否更愿意考虑规模更大的收购？鉴于现金流增加，你们是否会花更多时间在并购上？对此我很想听听你们的看法。我知道你们已经续批了股票回购授权。与此相关，你们是否强烈承诺将在未来三年回购约 40 亿美元的股票？我只是想了解你们在这方面的优先顺序，以及指引与实际承诺之间的区别。谢谢。

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

Well, thanks for the question, Robert. And on the one hand, this will not be another boring answer because I think there’s a lot of consistency with what we've said in the past, but actually I think it's pretty exciting what we're going to be doing here. I mean, as we outlined, through FY ’28, we're going to generate \$9 billion of operating cash flow and \$6 billion of free cash flow.

感谢提问，Robert。从某种意义上说，这依旧不是一个乏味的答案，因为与我们过去的表述保持高度一致，但我认为我们接下来要做的事情相当令人振奋。正如我们所说明的，到 2028 财年，我们将创造 90 亿美元的经营现金流和 60 亿美元的自由现金流。

Our capital allocation priorities don't change. We're committed to being -- we're committed to achieving three times leverage. We're there now. We're actually a little bit below there now. We're committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and we'll maintain our approximately 30% dividend payout as we go forward.

我们的资本配置优先级并未改变。我们致力于保持大约 3 倍的杠杆率——目前已达标，甚至略低于此水平。我们承诺通过分红向股东返还资本，并将继续维持约 30% 的派息率。

And then you referenced the new authorization for \$4 billion in share repurchases that we received from our board yesterday. This is actually, I think, very exciting. I mean, not only is the \$4 billion share repurchase authorization reflective of our discipline around capital allocation and share of purchases more specifically, but it's also reflective of the fact that we think that we're undervalued.

此外，正如你提到的，我们昨天从董事会获得了新的 40 亿美元股票回购授权。这让我感到非常振奋。这不仅体现了我们在资本配置及股票回购方面的纪律性，也反映出我们认为公司目前被低估。

Our share price is undervalued, remains undervalued. And we're going to execute on that share authorization as we have this past fiscal year where we'll be disciplined on a quarter-to-quarter basis, but we will also have the ability to be opportunistic as we see dislocations in our share price.

我们的股价被低估，仍然被低估。我们将像上一财年那样执行这一回购计划，按季度保持纪律性，也会在股价出现错位时抓住机会灵活操作。

And then as we round out capital allocation, we're going to continue to invest in our Beer Business, as we outlined in the materials yesterday, \$2 billion over the next few years. And M\&A remains the last of our priorities, mainly around smaller plug-in opportunities.

在资本配置方面的收尾工作中，我们将继续投资啤酒业务，正如昨天的材料所示，未来几年将投入 20 亿美元。并购仍是最后的优先项，主要集中在规模较小的补充型机会。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自富国银行证券的 Chris Carey 先生，您的线路已接通。

Chris Carey

Hi, good morning, everyone.

大家好，早上好。

Garth Hankinson

Hey, Chris.

嗨，Chris。

So, Garth, can you just talk about the main drivers and considerations for gross margins going into fiscal ‘26? I fully appreciate that you had a lot of detail in the slides, but I'm really trying to parse out the impact of tariffs on this model, whether that's just the aluminum cans relative to everything else. You also perhaps have a quite a notable currency tailwind in fiscal ‘26 that may not help you in go-forward years.

那么，Garth，您能否谈谈进入 2026 财年的毛利率主要驱动因素和考量？我完全理解幻灯片中已有大量细节，但我想要拆分关税对这一模型的影响，尤其是铝罐部分相较于其他因素。此外，2026 财年或许会出现显著的汇率顺风，但在未来几年未必能持续。

And so I'm really just trying to understand the puts and takes, specifically the impact of tariffs relative to everything else on the model in fiscal ‘26 and whether there are some nuances like currency that won't repeat, so that we can have a better idea of how to layer this in going into fiscal ‘27 and fiscal ’28?

因此，我想弄清楚这些正负因素，特别是在 2026 财年中关税相较于其他因素的影响，以及诸如汇率等可能不会重复出现的细节，从而更好地了解在 2027 和 2028 财年应如何分层考虑这些因素。

Garth Hankinson

Yeah, so look, let me do my best there, Chris. And if we need to follow up, we can follow up. But the guidance that we provided yesterday, as we said, includes the impact of tariffs for our Beer Business. That is the impact on aluminum cans. As it relates to currency, as you know, we've talked about this multiple times, that we have a multi-year layered approach to how we manage our currency.

是的，Chris，让我尽力说明一下，如果需要后续交流，我们可以再跟进。正如我们所说，昨天提供的指引已包含啤酒业务关税的影响，也就是铝罐成本的影响。关于汇率，如你所知，我们已多次讨论，我们采用多年分层的方式来管理汇率风险。

As we entered in FY ‘26, we're above 70% hedged and we've seen some actually dislocations in the U.S. peso right here. I shouldn't say some dislocations, but some weakness and we've taken opportunities to layer in some incremental hedges both for this year and future years. So as always, we look to sort of -- we look to manage that on a year-to-year basis so that the impact isn't that material from a year-to-year perspective. We try to smooth that as best we can.

进入 2026 财年时，我们的对冲比例已超过 70%，近期确实看到美元兑墨西哥比索出现了一些……我不该说是偏差，而是一些弱势，因此我们抓住机会为本年度及未来年度增加了额外对冲。与往常一样，我们会逐年管理，使其影响在年度间不会过于显著，并尽力将其平滑处理。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自伯恩斯坦的 Nadine Sarwat 女士，您的线路已接通。

Nadine Sarwat

娜丁·萨瓦特

Thank you, guys. I appreciate all the incremental color that was provided in the prepared remarks in the presentation. Two questions for me. You called out a tough socioeconomic environment in your prepared remarks. Can you explain exactly what you're assuming in terms of that socioeconomic environment for the next three years? Are you assuming the current situation remains status quo or are you making some improvement in the back of that? And then secondly, on the weak depletion numbers and especially Modelo, appreciate the commentary that you provided. Could you pull apart the factors onto what's driving that, maybe what has changed in a little more detail? I don't know if a rank order of magnitude or trying to quantify these in any way possible, and maybe you have any incremental consumer insight on consumer type, pack type, channel, any incremental color would be helpful. Thank you.

谢谢各位。我很感激在准备好的发言和演示材料中提供的所有补充信息。我有两个问题。第一，您在准备好的发言中提到了艰难的社会经济环境。能否具体解释一下，在接下来的三年里，您对该社会经济环境的假设是什么？您是假设当前状况保持不变，还是在此基础上有所改善？第二，关于疲软的出库量数据，尤其是 Modelo，感谢您提供的评论。能否更详细地拆分驱动因素，解释发生了哪些变化？如果能够按重要性排序或尽可能量化就更好了。同时，如果您能提供有关消费者类型、包装类型、销售渠道等任何额外洞察也会非常有帮助。谢谢。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Sure. So, let's talk first about the Hispanic consumer because I think this is an important element. As you would expect, we do a fair amount of research around this consumer given that they represent roughly 50% of our overall Beer Business. And the fact is, a lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now. Two-thirds of them are concerned about higher prices on things like food, gas, and other essentials. Over half are concerned relative to immigration issues and how those impact. A number of them are concerned about job losses in industries that have a high Latino employment base. And what does that do? That has tended to mean that the consumer has pulled back on spending on a number of categories. The single biggest one, interestingly, is restaurants. But a lot of other consumer goods, clothing, home choice, things to do, travel. Beer is quite a ways down the list, but it's certainly on the list because things like social gatherings, an area where the Hispanic consumer often consumes beer, are declining today as part of these overarching concerns that they have. Therefore, all of that has had impact on our business. As you know, Modelo is over 50% Hispanic in terms of its demographic base. So, this decline in efforts to go to restaurants, to have social gatherings, things that are very much beer occasions have softened in the more recent term. And it's going to be key to watch as to how that impact continues or doesn't continue as we go forward. Net-net, it's non-structural. This is not -- our brands and our brand health continues to be top-notch. We continue to focus on what we can win at, winning the shelf, winning execution, continuing to bring interesting innovation to the table that allows us to continue to outperform the overall category. But as you would expect, we're going to need and want to see some improvement in the consumer brand health before we're able to correctly project how long some of these challenges are going to last. Garth, anything you want to add?

好的。首先让我们谈谈西班牙裔消费者，因为这是一个重要因素。正如你所预期的，我们对这一群体进行了大量研究，他们约占我们整体啤酒业务的 50%。事实上，目前西班牙裔社区的许多消费者都感到担忧。三分之二的人担心食品、汽油和其他必需品等价格上涨；超过一半的人担心移民问题及其影响；还有相当一部分人担心在拉美裔就业比例高的行业中失业。这导致消费者在多个类别的支出有所收缩，其中最显著的是餐馆消费；此外，其他消费品、服装、家居选择、休闲活动和旅行等也受到影响。啤酒在优先级中排得比较靠后，但仍在名单上，因为社交聚会——西班牙裔消费者经常饮用啤酒的场合——如今因这些整体担忧而减少。因此，这些因素都影响了我们的业务。众所周知，Modelo 的消费者构成中有超过 50% 是西班牙裔。因此，最近去餐馆和参加社交聚会等典型啤酒场景的减少导致需求走软。未来观察这种影响是否持续非常关键。总体来看，这并非结构性问题——我们的品牌及其健康度依旧一流。我们继续专注于自己的优势，比如货架竞争、执行到位，并不断推出有趣的创新，使我们能够持续跑赢整个品类。不过如你所料，我们需要看到消费者品牌健康有所改善，才能准确预测这些挑战会持续多久。Garth，你有什么补充吗？

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

Yeah, just on some of the macro data points. And I'll give you sort of how we're thinking about that for the forecast period that we provided details on last night. We're not expecting any material improvement over this forecast period. Some of the macro trends that we're seeing and that we're tracking, our unemployment, and obviously unemployment, has started to stabilize across the board. But we have seen weakness in those 4,000-calorie job sectors that have a higher impact on beer consumption. Year-over-year real disposable personal income reached a two-year low in January and stayed low in February. Consumer sediment --sentiment rather, reached a 2.5 year low in March, and long-term expectations from consumers isn't expected to change anytime soon. We've seen inflation rather -- the expectations for inflation to not get as -- to not rebound quite as quickly as we had expected. And the outlook for GDP growth now is a little bit more muted than it was. So we're not expecting any big improvements in that. As we go through calendar year 2025, we may see some of that moderate a bit and into '26, so maybe some marginal improvement. But for the forecast period, we're not expecting any material improvement in the macroeconomic conditions.

好的，我来补充一些宏观数据点，并说明我们对昨晚提供的预测期的思考。我们不预计在整个预测期内会出现显著改善。目前我们跟踪的一些宏观趋势包括失业率——总体上失业率已开始趋稳，但在对啤酒消费影响较大的“4000 卡路里”岗位领域出现了疲软。按年计算的实际可支配个人收入在 1 月跌至两年低点，并在 2 月保持低位。消费者情绪指数在 3 月降至两年半低点，且消费者的长期预期短期内不会改变。通胀预期并没有像我们预想的那样快速回落。GDP 增长前景也比之前更为温和。因此，我们不指望出现巨大的改善。到 2025 年历年期间，情况可能会有所缓和，进入 2026 年可能会有轻微改善。但在整个预测期内，我们不预期宏观经济环境会有实质性的好转。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Peter Grom from UBS. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自瑞银的彼得·格罗姆先生，您的线路已接通。

Peter Grom

彼得·格罗姆

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. So I was hoping to talk more in near term and just kind of get some perspective and just in terms of what's happening in terms of beer top line growth. Currently, obviously, a challenging exit rate and the guidance does seem to imply some improvement from that exit rate. So can you maybe just help us frame how we should be thinking about the guidance from here? Any considerations that we should consider as it relates to 1Q? And then just any thoughts in terms of what we should anticipate price versus volume? Thanks.

谢谢，主持人，大家早上好。我想更侧重讨论近期情况，了解一下啤酒业务收入增长的最新动向。目前的退出增速显然颇具挑战，而指引似乎暗示该增速将有所改善。您能否帮助我们厘清接下来应如何解读这一指引？在第一财季需要考虑哪些因素？此外，关于价格与销量的预期，您有何看法？谢谢。

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Well, I think if you'll recall from last year, the strongest quarter that we had, and frankly, that the industry had, was our fiscal Q1. So, while we don't make any habit, as you know, of giving quarterly guidance, certainly, the biggest overlap that we have is in this very first quarter as the business started to soften for the industry as well as for us, as you progressed through the back half of last year. So, that -- when you combine that with some of the socioeconomic climate issues that I've already referred to, I think you're going to see some volatility as the year goes on. Again, the key thing for us, I know I'm repeating myself, but I think it's important to recognize, our brand health remains best-in-class. And in the longer run, that will continue to pay dividends for us as consumers get back to a normalized behavioral pattern.

我想各位还记得，去年我们业绩最强的季度，也是整个行业表现最好的季度，是我们的第一财季。正如您所知，我们通常不提供季度指引，但由于去年下半年行业和我们自身的业务均开始走软，第一财季的基数效应最大。因此，再叠加我之前提到的社会经济环境因素，我认为今年会出现一定波动。再强调一次，对我们而言最关键的是——虽然我反复提到——必须认识到我们的品牌健康度依旧处于行业领先水平。长期来看，随着消费者行为恢复正常，这将持续为我们带来回报。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bill Kirk from ROTH MKM. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自 ROTH MKM 的比尔·柯克先生，您的线路已接通。

Bill Kirk

比尔·柯克

Good morning. So some people, including the Teamsters and maybe one of the mega brewers, they seem to be trying to drive a wedge between American beer and imported beer. Are they having any success with that in the eyes of consumers? And how much influence do you think those type of groups have over alcohol tariff policies?

早上好。有些人——包括产业工人联盟以及可能的一家超大型酿酒商——似乎正试图在美国啤酒与进口啤酒之间制造分歧。在消费者看来，他们是否取得了一定成效？您认为这些团体对酒类关税政策有多大影响力？

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

It’s interesting question, Bill. Tough to answer some of that question. What I would say is one of the things that we're proud of as a company is our 80 years as an American company. As you know, we're -- our ownership is entirely in this country, although we make most of our beer in Mexico because we have Mexican heritage brands. But we spend roughly \$1 billion a year in the United States market, supporting our brands. We have many of our grains and our barleys and our corn grown in the Mountain West of the United States for inputs. I think when the overall Teamsters take a very hard look, we are very supportive of the Teamsters. I think we have brought more jobs to this marketplace than any other competitor has because of the growth of our business over time through our distributor network. So, I think as people take a real hard look at what our company is and how we have performed in the marketplace, they will recognize that we have done an exceptional job of building US jobs as we've also built our business in Mexico to support those US jobs.

这是个有趣的问题，比尔，其中部分确实难以回答。我想强调的是，作为一家公司，我们为自己 80 年来作为美国企业的身份感到自豪。如你所知，我们的所有权完全位于美国，虽然由于品牌传承，大部分啤酒在墨西哥生产。但我们每年在美国市场投入约 10 亿美元支持品牌。我们的许多大麦、玉米等原料产自美国西部山区。我认为，当产业工人联盟全面审视这一点时，会发现我们对该工会非常支持。随着业务通过分销网络不断增长，我们为本土市场创造的就业岗位比任何竞争对手都多。因此，当各方认真审视我们的公司及市场表现时，会认识到我们在创造美国就业方面成绩斐然，同时也在墨西哥扩建业务以支持这些美国岗位。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Andrew Strelzik from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自 BMO 资本市场的 Andrew Strelzik 先生，您的线路已接通。

Andrew Strelzik

安德鲁·斯特雷尔齐克

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. I appreciate all the detail on the guidance. Obviously, it's a very fluid environment. I guess when you just think through all the assumptions that you've made here over the next -- in recasting kind of the next three years, where do you think there's the biggest risks to your assumptions and the biggest -- maybe where we might look back and say, hey, that turned out to be a little bit conservative?

大家好，早上好。感谢回答我的问题。我很感谢你们在指引中提供的所有细节。显然，当前环境变化很快。当你们重新规划未来三年并列出所有假设时，你们认为其中最大的风险在哪里？又有哪些方面可能会被证明过于保守？

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Yeah, I think the single biggest risk that we have is where the consumer is and how long their concerns last. If we had a crystal ball on that, it'd be a lot easier to make some projections because as the consumer feels better about things, that will help not only our business, but the overall category. Believe me, we'd like to see a healthy category. That would be to everyone in our industry's benefit. And we certainly always like to see the industry succeed as we succeed. So that's the biggest variable that I think is out there is when does the consumer come around. We're going to stay crystal-clear focus on the variables that we can control, as I've talked to earlier today. But the consumer sentiment and the consumers' desire to get back out and shop and be comfortable in the socioeconomic environment is probably the single biggest variable that’s tough to predict.

是的，我认为我们面临的最大风险就是消费者的状况以及他们担忧会持续多久。如果我们能未卜先知，预测就容易得多；因为一旦消费者的情绪改善，不仅对我们的业务有利，对整个品类也有帮助。相信我，我们希望看到一个健康的行业，这对所有从业者都有好处，也希望行业共同成长。因此，我认为最大的变量就是消费者何时会回归正常。我们将继续专注于自己能够控制的因素，正如我今天早些时候提到的那样。但消费者情绪以及他们重新外出购物、适应社会经济环境的意愿，可能是最难预测的单一变量。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question today is coming from Gerald Pascarelli from Needham & Company. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自 Needham & Company 的 Gerald Pascarelli 先生，您的线路已接通。

Gerald Pascarelli

杰拉尔德·帕斯卡雷利

Great. Thanks very much for the question. I just had a housekeeping item on the Wine Business. So, the \$41 million impact that you called out in your commentary, can you provide some detail on when you expect that to hit the operating income? Is that going to be in the first quarter of 2026? I guess that's my first question. Just any color on the cadence? And then as we think about the cost savings, I think \$100 million of the \$200 million is coming out of wine. Is that going to be more pronounced benefit to the operating income booking? Like if we had to look to 2027 or 2028, is that going to be more of a benefit when we get to 2027? So, again, any color on the cadence there, I think, would be helpful. Thank you.

非常感谢。关于葡萄酒业务有一个确认事项。你们在评论中提到的 4100 万美元影响，请问何时会体现在营业收入中？是否会落在 2026 财年第一季度？这是我的第一个问题，想了解节奏。另外，关于成本节约，你们的 2 亿美元节约目标中有 1 亿美元来自葡萄酒业务。这对营业收入的提振是否会更明显？比如说到 2027 或 2028 年时，这部分节约是否会体现得更加显著？再次请分享节奏方面的更多信息。谢谢。

Garth Hankinson

加思·汉金森

Yeah. So, the \$41 million that you referenced, that was called out in the prepared materials, that will kind of happen throughout the year. So, just -- it won't be any one big quarter where that hits but throughout the year. And then in terms of the cost savings, we called this out in our materials, right? So it's about \$100 million in total for Wine and Spirits. We're expecting about \$55 million in Q -- or in fiscal '26. So the majority of the actions that we will take to achieve that \$100 million savings will occur in FY '26. It's just you won't get the full run rate of that until you move into FY '27 and then maybe a little bit into FY '28.

好的，关于你提到的 4100 万美元，我们在准备材料中已指出，这部分影响将贯穿全年，而不会集中在某一个季度。至于成本节约，我们也在材料中说明了：葡萄酒和烈酒业务总共约有 1 亿美元的节约目标，其中约 5500 万美元预计在 2026 财年实现。因此，为达成 1 亿美元节约，我们的大多数举措将在 2026 财年完成，只是要到 2027 财年，甚至部分延续到 2028 财年，才能完全体现其年度化效果。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自摩根士丹利的 Dara Mohsenian 先生，您的线路已接通。

Dara Mohsenian

达拉·莫森尼安

Hey, good morning. So, clearly, a pretty big revision in long-term beer sales growth from the 7% to 9% range to 2% to 4% in fiscal '27 and '28. So, can you just give us a little more detail on how much of that is just related to the external environment and more conservatism on macros? How much of it is pressure points maybe that are more durable on the beer category, health and wellness, demographics, et cetera? And then a third bucket of market share opportunity for STZ. Just give us a sense of conceptually how much of that falls into each bucket? And I realize this is like the eighth version of this question you've got on the call. But I guess the point is, we're kind of hearing from you guys, your tone is that the beer depletion slowdown, it's more driven by short-term factors. Obviously, we understand the difficult macro environment. But at the same time, you're making pretty large revisions, the beer sales growth post fiscal '26, which should be significantly macro depressed based on what we're seeing. So I'm just trying to sort of bridge those two points and how you guys think about that conceptually? If that makes sense.

嗨，早上好。长期啤酒销售增速已从 7%–9% 大幅下调至 2%–4%（适用于 2027 和 2028 财年）。能否更具体说明，这一下调有多少源于外部环境和更保守的宏观假设？又有多少是啤酒品类更持久的压力点，比如健康养生、人口结构等？第三个部分是 STZ 的市场份额机会，各占比大概多少？我知道这是你们在本次电话会议上收到的第八次类似提问。但我们的感受是，你们认为啤酒出库放缓主要由短期因素驱动；当然我们理解宏观环境艰难。然而，你们对 2026 财年后的啤酒销售增速做出了相当大的调整，而按目前情形看宏观面将明显承压。我尝试在这两点之间找到衔接，并了解你们在概念上如何思考，这样说是否合理？

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

Yeah. It totally does, Dara. Our points are -- we have a near-term issue as it relates to consumer sentiment. Very difficult to predict how long that will last or not. And so as we look at the fiscal year that we're in, we expect that it very well could be a significant factor throughout this fiscal year. I think the question is, when does the consumer sentiment turn around? That's the one that's very difficult to project. But again, this is where we go back to -- you have a shorter-term issue, you have a near-term issue, you don't have a brand health issue. I mean, I look at brand -- we don't always talk about on every single call, but Pacifico. Pacifico was up 16% last year. It continues to grow and get consumer demand. It's -- and I've called it in years past, an early-stage Modelo because it's shown a similar growth profile to what Modelo did sort of a decade ago. The punchline to that is we have strength within our brands. We have new innovation agenda items that will open up new consumer occasions and new consumers to our franchises, and we're going to continue to work on the controllables. It's very difficult for us to project some of the socioeconomic elements that are going to impact it. And it was our belief that it could be longer than we'd all anticipated. It's simply an area we can't answer, and that, therefore, is all reflected in the guidance we provided.

完全理解，Dara。我们的观点是——我们正面临与消费者情绪相关的短期问题，很难预测其持续时间。因此在当前财政年度内，这个因素可能始终具有重大影响。关键问题在于消费者情绪何时转向，这很难预测。但再次强调，这只是短期或近端问题，并非品牌健康问题。以 Pacifico 为例——虽然我们并非每次都提，但去年 Pacifico 同比增长 16%，需求仍在增长。我曾多次把它称作早期阶段的 Modelo，因为其增长曲线与十年前的 Modelo 相似。核心结论是，我们的品牌依旧强劲；我们也有新的创新议程，能够打开新的消费场景并吸引新客群，而我们会继续把精力放在可控因素上。一些社会经济因素的影响难以预测，我们认为这些因素可能比最初预期持续更久，这是我们目前难以回答的问题，也已经体现在所发布的指引中。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自杰富瑞的 Kaumil Gajrawala 先生，您的线路已接通。

Kaumil Gajrawala

考米尔·加贾拉瓦拉

If I can just follow up on that, Bill. So many times we're hearing sort of non-structural, non-structural and there's a lot of macro stuff, of course. But, at the same time, the long-term algorithm has changed quite a bit. And it feels like maybe some of it is structural and that could be a law of large numbers. Is there maybe a revision in expectations for Hispanic population growth in the United States? Just, is there anything maybe bigger in there that we should be aware of as part of the calculus?

Bill，我想就此再追问一下。我们多次听到“非结构性、非结构性”的说法，当然宏观层面也存在诸多问题。但与此同时，长期算法已发生相当大的变化，这似乎暗示其中可能有结构性因素，也可能与“大数定律”有关。是否对美国西班牙裔人口增长的预期进行了修订？或者还有哪些更重要的因素需要纳入考量？

Bill Newlands

比尔·纽兰兹

No, I don't think so. I think that when you look at lots of factors, when you look at our awareness levels versus some of the competition, when you look at our shelf positions versus some of the larger competition, we still have a lot of runway to grow. We have a lot of expansion capability of reaching -- using Modelo as an example, into the non-Hispanic community. We have only been investing against the non-Hispanic community for the last several years. We have increased our amount of marketing spend. As you know, in the back half of last year, we increased our spend even though the consumer was pulling back. And we're seeing that as providing great returns to our business. So, we believe there's still a lot of opportunity for our business going forward that most of what is going on is socioeconomic issues that we believe will moderate over time. The question is, what's that time arise? That's a bit of a difficult one to answer.

不会，我认为并非如此。从多个维度来看——我们的品牌知名度与竞争对手相比、我们的货架位置与大型竞争对手相比——我们仍有很大增长空间。以 Modelo 为例，我们还有大量机会向非西班牙裔消费群体扩张。在过去几年里，我们才开始针对非西班牙裔市场加大投入。去年下半年，即便消费者支出趋于收缩，我们仍然提高了营销投入，并且已看到良好回报。因此，我们相信未来业务仍大有可为，目前出现的大多是社会经济层面的因素，我们预计这些因素会随时间逐步缓解。问题在于具体何时缓解，这确实很难给出确切答案。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自摩根大通的 Andrea Teixeira 女士，您的线路已接通。

Andrea Teixeira

Hi, good morning, everyone.

大家好，早上好。

So, Bill, Garth, seems like you have collected hard data to inform you on the new guidance. So I think it would be helpful if you can comment on what has happened with beer volumes in the more Hispanic ZIP codes against the general public, perhaps the later part of the fiscal Q4?

Bill、Garth，看起来你们已经收集了确凿数据来支撑新的指引。如果你们能谈谈在以西班牙裔为主的邮政区与普通公众相比，啤酒销量出现了什么变化，特别是在上一财年第四季度后期，将会很有帮助。

And then I definitely understand the loyalty and the dermographic bonus of this cohort from covering Group Modelo when it was public exporting decades ago, and that strength, of course, kind of carry over to you as an importer. Can you also tell us like how that -- I mean, obviously, against the general public has shaped your information -- I mean, your decision to reduce long term?

此外，我深知这一人群的忠诚度和人口红利——几十年前我在研究上市时期的 Grupo Modelo 出口业务时就有体会，这种优势显然延续到了你们作为进口商的业务中。能否说明，这种优势相对于普通消费群体在信息层面如何影响了你们下调长期预期的决定？

And also related to that, you invested close to 9% of sales into the Beer Business in terms of A\&P. And obviously, you have been investing that \$1 billion, as you said. So just thinking of the 8.5% that you gave as a guidance for fiscal '26, how should we be thinking given, one, you have already gained a lot of distribution. Of course, you're going to gain additional 10%. And how you are going to be, I think, shifting given that you're becoming more general public as we go, how we should be thinking about all these dynamics? Thank you.

还有一点，你们在啤酒业务的广告与促销投入接近销售额的 9%，且如你们所说累计投资 10 亿美元。考虑到你们给出的 2026 财年 8.5% 投入指引，我们该如何理解？一方面，你们已经取得了大量分销渠道，还将再扩张 10%；另一方面，随着客群愈加面向大众，你们会如何调整？我们应如何看待这些动态？谢谢。

Bill Newlands

Sure. So, let's try to take that in some order here. Relative to Hispanic consumer behavior, one of the things we've seen both factually and anecdotally is that there has been some channel shifts in what that consumer is doing.

好的，让我们按顺序回答。关于西班牙裔消费者行为，我们从数据和非正式反馈中都看到，他们的消费渠道出现了一些转变。

So, historically, you saw overweighting to the stores that were largely Hispanic consumer base and C-stores. Both of those, we have seen some shifting into broader chain-based accounts that are larger accounts. And I think that reflects some of the concerns that we've talked about earlier that the Hispanic consumer is seeing across their broader life and lifestyle.

过去，他们更偏好主要面向西班牙裔顾客的商店以及便利店。现在，我们注意到部分消费转向了规模更大的连锁渠道。我认为这反映出西班牙裔消费者在生活方式层面的担忧——正如我们之前提到的那样。

Relative to the 8.5%, we continue -- keep in mind, that with the growth profile that we have every year, that continues to be an increase in the amount of spend that we have put against our business and because of the very strong cost agendas that we have, we continue to put more fuel on that fire where appropriate to continue to support our business.

关于 8.5% 的投入比例，请记住，随着我们每年的增长，这仍意味着对业务投入的绝对金额在持续增加；得益于强有力的成本计划，我们会在合适之处继续加大投入，支持业务发展。

We are going to continue to do exactly that. Our cost agenda, as you saw, we are expecting \$200 million over the next 2.5 fiscal years based on a strong cost agenda, and we believe that some of that will get reinvested against our business to help drive future success along those lines.

我们将继续保持这一做法。如你所见，我们的成本计划预计在未来两个半财年节省 2 亿美元，其中部分节省将重新投入到业务中，以推动未来的成功。

But we test and we review our marketing approach as you would expect on a quarter-by-quarter basis. But we're quite pleased that we continue to see very strong returns for the spend that we put against our Beer Business.

当然，我们会按季度测试并评估营销策略。令人欣慰的是，对啤酒业务的投入仍持续带来强劲回报。

Garth Hankinson

Bill, if you don't mind, I’ll just explain a couple more just on the marketing spend, right? I mean -- as Bill just noted, we don't compromise on our marketing spend.

Bill，如果可以的话，我想再补充几句关于营销投入。正如 Bill 刚才所说，我们在营销投入上绝不会妥协。

It's a very disciplined approach. You've heard us say this before, we've gotten a lot of efficiencies with our media agencies in terms of the effectiveness and spend.

我们采取非常有纪律的方法。你们以前也听我们提过，我们与媒介代理合作显著提升了投放效率和效果。

And we will continue to target being the number one and number two share of voice with Modelo and Corona. And we've increased our sponsorship or our spend in -- with March Madness, with Soccer, with Major League Baseball, and with college football.

我们将继续确保 Modelo 和 Corona 在广告声量上保持行业第一和第二的位置。同时，我们已加大在疯狂三月篮球赛、足球、美国职业棒球大联盟以及大学橄榄球等项目上的赞助和投放。

So we're not shortchanging by any means the marketing investment behind our beer brands.

因此，我们绝不会在啤酒品牌的营销投资上缩水。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Carlos Laboy from HSBC. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自汇丰银行的 Carlos Laboy 先生，您的线路已接通。

Carlos Laboy

Yes. Hello. One interpretation of your three-year guidance and its long-term implication is that Corona Extra is the Bud Light of 2008 — just a declining, aging brand with volume declines that the rest of the portfolio might not be able to offset. Can you make the case for Corona Extra as you see it evolving? And I remember that in 2008, you were able to restabilize Corona actually where Bud Light couldn't. How are you planning to stabilize it now and return that to growth? And might that be one of the structural kind of hurdles that you need to clear here that Kaumil was maybe alluding to in an earlier question?

您好。有一种解读认为，你们三年指引及其长期含义意味着 Corona Extra 正成为 2008 年的 Bud Light——一个销量下滑、逐渐老化的品牌，其下降可能无法被组合中其他品牌抵消。请阐述一下你们眼中的 Corona Extra 未来发展？我记得 2008 年时，你们成功重新稳定了 Corona，而 Bud Light 却未能做到。你们现在准备如何稳定并恢复其增长？这会不会正是 Kaumil 之前暗示的那类结构性难题之一？

Bill Newlands

So, a couple of things as it relates to Corona. First of all, I think it's important to think about Corona as a brand family. Corona Familiar is one of our strong growth players in today's market. We have introduced Corona Sunbrew this year, which we're very encouraged about in its early days. We feel that's going to reach a different consumer and provide the opportunity for improvement in that particular piece. Remember, it's got strong brand equity and awareness. It's the number one brand in the mind of consumers — the most loved brand in the mind of consumers in the United States. So, Corona still has a very strong consumer base and consumer franchise. Interestingly enough, it is one of our best returns against our advertising approach, very, very strong. And we're increasing that spend in this fiscal year versus what we have done in the past. So, we remain optimistic about Corona. And we expect that that's going to continue to be an important part of our brand flow going forward.

关于 Corona，有几点需要说明。首先，必须将 Corona 视为一个品牌家族。Corona Familiar 目前是市场中的强劲增长引擎之一。今年我们推出了 Corona Sunbrew，在早期阶段已令我们非常振奋；我们认为它能触达不同的消费群体，为该细分市场带来提升契机。请记住，Corona 拥有强大的品牌资产和知名度——在美国消费者心目中，它是第一、也是最受喜爱的品牌。因此，Corona 仍然拥有非常稳固的消费基础和品牌号召力。有趣的是，它也是我们广告投放回报率最高的品牌之一，非常出色。本财年我们对其营销投入将超越以往。整体而言，我们对 Corona 保持乐观，预计它未来仍将是品牌组合中的重要一环。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Filippo Falorni from Citi. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自花旗银行的 Filippo Falorni 先生，您的线路已接通。

Filippo Falorni

Hi, good morning, everyone. I wanted to go back to the beer margin question that were asked before. Just a clarification. So on Slide 14, you guys show that you're expecting COGS inflation of low- to mid-single-digit through fiscal '28 including net of cost savings. So, on a net basis, you still have cost inflation. Depreciation, even though you're mitigating some of the incremental addition — capacity addition is still going up. And the volume environment is also softer. So, I assume there's a little bit less fixed-cost leverage, although still positive. So can you help me understand what are the offsets to all these headwinds on beer margins that allow you to maintain the beer margin unchanged? Thank you.

大家早上好。我想回到之前提出的啤酒利润率问题，做个澄清。在第 14 张幻灯片中，你们显示到 2028 财年，扣除成本节约后，预计 COGS 将以低至中单位数通胀率增长；净净来看仍存在成本通胀。即便你们减缓了部分新增产能带来的折旧，折旧本身仍在增加；同时销量环境也趋软。这意味着固定成本杠杆会略有减弱，但仍为正。请问你们如何抵消这些不利因素，从而保持啤酒业务利润率不变？谢谢。

Garth Hankinson

No. I mean, look, as we said earlier, right, there will be volume increases, which will help. There will be pricing in that 1% to 2%, which will help. Those cost initiatives will keep our inflation — or will help mitigate that cost inflation — and we'll manage depreciation. So that's where we feel comfortable, say, we'll be in 39% to 40% operating margins. It's all of that put together.

可以的。正如我们先前所述，首先销量会增加，这会带来帮助；其次定价将在 1%–2% 区间，这也会起到作用；此外，成本举措将抑制或缓解成本通胀，我们还会管理折旧。所有这些因素合在一起，让我们有信心维持 39%–40% 的营业利润率水平。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Bryan Spillane from Bank of America. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自美国银行的 Bryan Spillane 先生，您的线路已接通。

Bryan Spillane

Hey. Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. First, Bill, Garth, thank you for putting a stake in the ground. This is not an easy environment to try to forget about forecasting next month, let alone the next few years. And so whether it's accurate or not, it's just that you put a stake in the ground, you gave us some detail, it's really helpful. So, thank you. My question is more around, as we're thinking about margins in beer and for the whole enterprise actually, just structurally, is the \$200 million in savings that we talked about yesterday, is most of that just a -- is most of that related to the divestiture of the parts of the Wine Business and kind of reducing some of the stranded overhead? And I guess what's really underneath my question is, as things evolve, should we expect there could be some opportunities to drive more efficiency and especially as hopefully, the landscape sort of becomes more clear?

嗨，感谢主持人，大家早上好。首先，Bill、Garth，感谢你们明确给出了定位。在这样的环境下，别说预测下个月，连未来几年都难以预测，无论是否精准，你们能给出具体立场并提供细节都非常有帮助，所以谢谢你们。我的问题更多围绕啤酒业务乃至整个公司的利润率结构。昨天提到的 2 亿美元节省中，大部分是否——是否主要与剥离葡萄酒业务部分资产并减少相关残留间接费用有关？进一步说，随着形势演变，我们是否可以期待有更多机会提升效率，特别是当行业环境逐渐明朗时？

Garth Hankinson

Yeah, Bryan, thanks for the question. And I think I understood it. So let me try to answer it. As we said that the -- over \$200 million of annualized savings, of that, about \$100 million of that is associated with the wine business. And that comes out after the divestiture. The remainder of that really is across our corporate functions as well as some in beer. So it is a reset as we try to make sure that we've got the most capable organization with the best skills and resources and investments behind it to deliver on our strategic priorities going forward. I think we've got a pretty good history around discipline of cost management. And so to the extent we identify areas over and above what we shared yesterday, we absolutely would execute on those. But it's a pretty -- the amount of cost we're taking out is, I think it's a pretty aggressive yet very achievable amount and most of which we execute on this year.

好的，Bryan，感谢提问。我想我理解了，让我尝试回答。正如我们所说，这 2 亿美元以上的年度化节省中，大约 1 亿美元与葡萄酒业务相关，这部分节省将在剥离完成后兑现。其余部分主要来自公司职能部门以及啤酒业务的一些节约。这相当于一次重置，确保我们拥有最具能力的组织、最佳技能及资源，并在其后进行正确的投资，以推进我们的战略重点。我们在成本管理纪律方面历来表现出色，因此如果发现新的节约机会，我们肯定会加以落实。总体来看，这次削减成本的力度相当大但完全可实现，且大部分将在本财年执行。

Bill Newlands

So let me pile on you for once. Bryan, I think one of the things that Garth was just touching on is important. We have -- first of all, we have a superb supply chain capability within our business, and we have already shown our colors around that. As we create more efficiencies over time, we invest that money behind our business to help grow the future. That's an approach we have taken for many, many years now, and it's one that we're going to continue to take. So as our ability to improve the efficiencies in our business continues to grow, we will continue to invest that money on the future of our business.

我也来补充一下。Bryan，我认为 Garth 提到的一点很重要。首先，我们在公司内部拥有卓越的供应链能力，这一点已经得到充分证明。随着效率的持续提升，我们会将节省下来的资金重新投入业务，以助力未来增长。这是多年来我们一直坚持的做法，也将继续保持。当我们进一步提升业务效率的能力时，这些资金仍将被用于公司的未来发展。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Steve Powers from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自德意志银行的 Steve Powers 先生，您的线路已接通。

Steve Powers

Good morning. Bill, Garth, thanks for the question. Maybe a quick one for each of you actually. Bill, similar to how you've discussed a couple of times the factors influencing demand on beer, I'd love any analogous comments you might have on the Wine and Spirits side and just how you see the various factors stacking up to inform the flat to 3% outlook that you have on the portfolio you are planning to retain. And then, Garth, maybe you could expand a little bit more detail, if possible, on just how recent results and the revised outlook on beer is influencing how you're approaching the build-out in Veracruz or any of the modular additions at the existing, the other facilities? Just any changes that are maybe worth highlighting? Thank you.

早上好，Bill、Garth，感谢回答我的问题。实际上我各有一个简短问题。Bill，就像您几次谈到影响啤酒需求的因素一样，我想听听您对葡萄酒和烈酒业务的类似看法，以及这些因素如何共同作用，形成您对保留组合持平至增长 3% 的展望。然后，Garth，能否更详细说明一下，近期业绩及啤酒展望下调如何影响你们在韦拉克鲁斯的建设，或在现有其他工厂进行模块化扩建的方式？是否有值得特别指出的变化？谢谢。

Bill Newlands

Sure. Starting with wine, I'll let Garth answer the second half of the question. Our thinking around the Wine Business relates very similar to what we've done in beer, which is this creates a Wine and Spirits Business going forward that plays at the higher end of the business. And that ties in with the long-term premiumization trend that you see across all alcohol beverage. So we've finally gotten our portfolio sort of where we want it so that it reflects that we're playing against that premium and up-sector across both segments of our business. To give you a perspective, in the fourth quarter of last year, the retained business in Wine and Spirits grew 4% in depletions, which I think gives us some confidence and some excitement about what the future can look like for a much narrower but a much more focused higher-end portfolio for our Wine Business. That business has continued to be much stronger than what we've seen in other sectors of the Wine Business, which is why we're going to spend our time and energy on that subsegment of the overall wine category. Garth?

当然。先谈葡萄酒，我会让 Garth 回答第二部分问题。我们对葡萄酒业务的思考与啤酒类似：未来我们的葡萄酒和烈酒业务将专注于更高端的市场，这与整个酒类长期高端化趋势相契合。我们终于把产品组合调整到理想状态，确保在业务两大板块都主攻高端及以上细分。举例来说，去年第四季度，我们保留的葡萄酒和烈酒业务出库量增长了 4%，这让我们对未来充满信心与期待——虽然组合更精简，却更加聚焦高端。该业务的表现持续优于葡萄酒行业其他板块，因此我们将把时间和精力投入到这一细分市场。Garth？

Garth Hankinson

Yeah. And then just in terms of the modular approach and changes in how we're thinking about capacity, I mean, there's really nothing more to share than what was in the materials we had earlier today or last night, I should say. We're going to continue to manage our footprint responsibly and in line with what our volume expectations are. As you've seen, we've reduced our expectations for capacity through FY '28 in the materials we shared last night. We're on pace — specifically to Veracruz, we're on pace to open that. That will be an important brewery for us as we think about the contribution that it has to the overall portfolio. But we'll be really mindful and bring on capacity when it's needed.

好的，就模块化方法及产能规划的变化而言，我其实没有比昨晚材料更多的新信息可分享。我们将继续根据销量预期谨慎管理产能布局。如你们所见，我们昨晚的材料已将截至 2028 财年的产能规划下调。就韦拉克鲁斯项目而言，一切按计划推进，它将成为对整体组合贡献重要的啤酒厂。但我们会保持谨慎，只在确有需要时再增加产能。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Kevin Grundy from BNP Paribas. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一个问题来自法国巴黎银行的 Kevin Grundy，您的线路已接通。

Kevin Grundy

Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. I wanted to come back to the investment levels in the Beer Business. I want to ask it from a little bit of a different angle. Garth, I think you mentioned satisfactory levels. I think looking back, the 8.5% is below the 10% levels where the company was in fiscal ’20 and 2021, and you typically are in this 9% to 10% sort of range. So I wanted to ask, everyone on the call is sympathetic to the volatility in the environment. Number one, was there any thought to kind of leaning in here, albeit weighing on margins a bit to try to accelerate top line growth, not an uncommon tact, as you guys are well aware, in CPG you do see companies do that when the top line is waning as it clearly is. And then two, for both of you, should investors perceive this as kind of a philosophical reorientation, if you will, at Constellation, where there's kind of less of a bias towards top line growth and more of a bias towards margin preservation and cash flow, just kind of given what you're experiencing in the business, which would also not be uncommon either. And you might push and say it's not an either/or that's kind of a false choice, but I’m just — would like to hear more about how you're thinking about that balance. Thank you both.

太好了，谢谢。大家早上好。我想从不同角度再谈谈啤酒业务的投资水平。Garth，我记得你提到过“令人满意的水平”。回顾过去，8.5% 低于 2020 与 2021 财年 10% 左右的水平，而你们通常处在 9%–10% 区间。电话里大家都能体谅宏观环境的波动。第一，是否考虑过在当前环境下“加码”，即使牺牲一些利润率，也要推动营收增长？在 CPG 行业，面对营收放缓时企业采取这种做法并不罕见。第二，对你们两位来说，投资者是否应将此视为 Constellation 哲学上的重新定位？也就是说，较少偏向营收增长，而更多侧重利润率和现金流，鉴于你们目前的经营状况，这也并非少见。当然你们可能会说这不是非此即彼。我想听听你们如何权衡。谢谢。

Garth Hankinson

So just on the marketing investment. So, we feel, as I said earlier, and as Bill said as well, we feel really comfortable around our marketing investment. As we laid out at our Investor Day, our target was to be about 9%. And that's where we were in FY ’25. We're going to be a little bit below that in FY ’26 in terms of the forecast. But we don't limit that, right? When we talk to our marketing teams, we ask them what they need and they tell us what they need, right? And so this is reflective of what our team thinks it needs to drive the type of performance that's included in our outlook. That being said, and Bill referenced this earlier around our cost savings agenda and how we take savings from our cost savings agenda and reinvest that in high-return opportunities within the business. We did that last year, where in Q3 and Q4, we invested significantly more money in marketing to drive and to support our brands. So that's the discipline that we have on a year-to-year basis or a quarter-to-quarter basis. That won't change. And the last piece I'll just say on that before I turn it over to Bill as well is, again, while the percentage is coming down, we've gotten significantly more efficient in the way that we buy media and the way that we manage our marketing spend.

关于营销投入，如我和 Bill 先前所说，我们对当前的营销投入感到非常安心。在投资者日上，我们设定的目标是约占销售额 9%，2025 财年正是如此。2026 财年预测会略低于这一水平。但我们并不会人为设限——与市场团队沟通时，我们询问他们需要什么，他们据此提出需求，所以这反映了团队认为实现展望所需的投入。正如 Bill 早前提到的，我们通过成本节约计划释放资金，再投向高回报机会。去年第三、四季度我们就大幅追加了营销投入，以推动并支持品牌。我们始终保持这种按年乃至按季度的严格纪律。这一点不会改变。最后再补充一点：尽管比例下降，我们在媒体购买和营销支出管理方面的效率已显著提升。

Bill Newlands

And relative to your comment about, has our approach to things changed? The answer is no. Look, six out of the last eight years, we have been the number one Circana large company CPG company in terms of growth. It included last calendar year despite the challenges that we saw both within our industry and to some degree, within our brands as part of that industry. But it didn't change the fact that we were the number one large company — Circana growth company last year. We expect to continue to see both top line growth and maintaining a strong margin structure of 39% to 40%, as Garth outlined. Our expectation around that hasn't changed. We think both are important, and we're going to do our damndest to do both of those.

至于你提到我们的战略是否改变？答案是否定的。过去八年里有六年，我们都是 Circana 统计的增长最快的大型 CPG 企业；就算在去年整个行业及我们品牌本身都面临挑战，我们依旧位居榜首。这一事实并未改变。正如 Garth 所述，我们仍致力于实现营收增长，并保持 39%–40% 的强劲利润结构。这一目标未曾动摇。我们认为两者同样重要，也会全力以赴兼顾二者。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow 先生，您的线路已接通。

Robert Moskow

Hey, thanks. We're all kind of trying to fish around to figure out what the exact tariff impact is on your can costs. And it sounds like it's pretty sensitive information, so I understand. But I'm just trying to figure out if I have the building blocks right. If you spend like \$900 million a year on aluminum cans and it's a 25% tariff, do I just put those two numbers together? Or am I just way too high on that number?

嗨，谢谢。我们现在都在试图摸清关税对你们易拉罐成本的确切影响。这似乎是相当敏感的信息，我理解这一点。我只是想确认一下我的计算思路是否正确：如果你们每年在铝罐上花费大约 9 亿美元，而关税为 25%，我是否只需把这两个数字相乘？还是说我算得过高？

Garth Hankinson

I would say take a look at the information that we provided in the guidance that we issued last night. And I think that if you look at the top and bottom-line growth rates, you can figure out what the impact is.

我建议你查看我们昨晚发布的指引信息。我想，如果你看看我们的收入和利润增长率，就能推算出关税的影响。

Robert Moskow

Well, there's a lot of other assumptions in those impacts. So, what are the other assumptions? Would it be productivity?

可其中还包含许多其他假设。那么这些假设包括哪些？比如生产效率？

Garth Hankinson

Robert, yeah, on an absolute basis, as we disclosed in all the materials, it includes productivity, it includes cost savings. It includes inflationary pressures and so forth. But again, that is all baked into the margin assumption. Tariffs are as well. So all disclosures have been made available as made available.

Robert，是的，如我们在所有材料中披露的那样，其中包含了生产效率、成本节约、通胀压力等因素。当然，关税也已计入利润率假设中。所有相关信息都已公开。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. Next question is coming from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Your line is now live.

谢谢。下一位提问来自派杰桑德勒的 Michael Lavery 先生，您的线路已接通。

Michael Lavery

Thank you. Good morning. Just wanted to come back to just the capacity approach, and I recognize you've tried to adjust to match what you expect to need. But maybe help us understand the mix a little bit. It sounds like you're still adding modules besides Veracruz. I guess maybe first, are we right to assume that the flexibility you have to ship by sea from Veracruz should at least allow for some potential savings? And if so, what's the thinking to add at all your locations as opposed to just push there? Maybe just would love to understand that a little bit better.

谢谢，早上好。我想再谈谈产能策略，我知道你们一直在调整，以匹配预期需求。但能否帮我们稍微理清组合？听起来除了韦拉克鲁斯之外，你们还在新增模块。首先，我们是否可以假设，从韦拉克鲁斯通过海运的灵活性至少能带来一定节约？如果是这样，为何还要在所有工厂扩产，而不只侧重那里？希望能更深入了解一下。

Garth Hankinson

Yeah. I mean when we look at our brewery footprint, there's a number of things that we take into consideration. One is the size and scale of the brewery. Another is, what are the capabilities of that brewery in terms of the brewery capable of producing the entirety of the portfolio and have the complexity to service the entire portfolio, or is it a brewery that's going to be a bit more specialized and run large packaging lines. And then to your point, we also look at how do we optimize logistics costs in terms of getting product into the market most cost efficiently. So those are the things that kind of go into it. Specifically to Veracruz, while that is further south, and I know that there's been questions around what the impact that will have on logistics going forward, keep in mind that in the overall footprint, that will be about 3 million hectoliters of the overall 55 million hectoliters. So, it's a relatively small piece of the total footprint. We're still reviewing what we — what options we have from a logistics standpoint to make that as cost effective as possible. But we're also, from a capability standpoint, treating Veracruz as a brewery that will run along production lines of high-volume SKUs and therefore, minimize the cost there and try to offset any incremental logistics costs.

是的。评估酿酒厂布局时，我们会考虑多项因素。首先是工厂规模；其次是其能力——能否覆盖整个产品组合、处理复杂度，还是更专注大型包装线的专业化工厂。再者，就像你提到的，我们也会考量如何以最经济的方式将产品运往市场，优化物流成本。针对韦拉克鲁斯，虽然位置更南，也有人关注未来对物流的影响，但要记住，在 5,500 万公升总产能中，它仅占约 300 万公升，相对占比很小。我们仍在研究从物流角度如何实现最佳成本效益。同时，从产能定位看，韦拉克鲁斯将承担高销量 SKU 的生产线，从而降低其自身成本，并尽量抵消额外物流费用。

Operator

主持人

Thank you. We’ve reached the end of our question-and-answer session. And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.

谢谢。本次问答环节到此结束。女士们、先生们，今天的电话会议和网络直播就此结束。请各位现在可以断开线路，祝您有个愉快的一天。感谢您的参与。