2025-06-05 Thomas Peterffy.Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Trading Conference

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

Okay. So we get started. Okay. If I get your attention. First, thank you everybody for coming. It's great to be back for one session, this conference. It's much improved with Patrick here. But like Brian introduced 24, 25 years ago, we started this conference. The focus, the entire time has been electronic trading and the advancement in electronic trading, whether it be retail, exchanges, trading companies, crypto, et cetera.

好的，那我们开始吧。请大家注意一下。首先，感谢各位到来。很高兴能回到这场会议，参加其中一场环节。有帕特里克在场，这次会议改进了很多。正如布赖恩在24、25年前所介绍的那样，我们创办这场会议时，始终聚焦于电子交易及其发展，无论是零售、交易所、交易公司还是加密货币等。

But I couldn't be more pleased to introduce the next speaker, who brought automation to the options market, Mr. Thomas Peterffy. So Thomas, I'm proud to also serve on his Board in full disclosure. But Thomas brought automation to the options market. He founded Interactive Brokers in 1993, I believe. It went public...

但我非常高兴能介绍下一位演讲者，他把自动化带入期权市场——托马斯·彼得菲先生。完全披露一下，我也很自豪能在他的董事会任职。托马斯把自动化引入期权市场。他在1993年创立了盈透证券（Interactive Brokers），如果我没记错的话，公司后来上市……

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

1977\.

1977年。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

The predecessor, Timber Hill.

前身是 Timber Hill。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

Right.

没错。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

We're proud to have assisted in bringing the company public here at Sandler and Piper Sandler back in 2007. He stepped down, but I can tell you, as a Board, he's a very -- he's an active, very active Chairman of the company.

我们很自豪能在2007年协助公司在桑德勒及派珀·桑德勒上市。他后来卸任了职务，但我可以告诉大家，作为董事会成员，他是一位非常积极活跃的董事长。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

So I'm going to start, Thomas. Just to talk broadly and just talk about the economy because I think we've been in one of the most unique markets watching -- paying attention to headlines, watching the volatility. And you've had a good sort of view and grip on it. So what are you thinking about tariffs, interest rates, et cetera, the presidential impacts of -- on the marketplace, just as a leader of a major broker, what's your view on the marketplace and what's going on?

那么托马斯，我想先从宏观谈起，聊聊经济形势。我们如今所处的市场环境独特，大家都在关注头条新闻、观察波动，而你对此有很好的见解和把握。作为大型经纪商的领导者，你对关税、利率等问题以及总统大选对市场的影响怎么看？请分享你对市场现状的看法。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

So I just happen to be on Fox Business on April 7 as the market was violently crashing. It made a low around \[ 48 50 ] on the S\&P index. And I just couldn't understand why everybody saw the situation as dark as they did. I couldn't go along with the idea that Trump was just a crazy man also to destroy the United States. So we have seen Trump as President for 4 years being dragged through the mud with this insane Russia hoax and constantly attack with many other things, even worse than he's today. And in spite of that, he was able to keep his bits about him, and he has done a good job overall during his tenure. My opinion of him is that he's very street smart, has remarkable memory, works extremely well in forming relationships and helps in keeping in mind all the myriads of issues he undertakes to deal with. The first 4 years were a great training ground for him. And I think he will be a very good president in the second 4 years.

4月7日市场剧烈下跌时，我恰好在福克斯商业频道。标普指数跌到大约 \[48 50] 的位置。我实在无法理解为什么大家把形势看得如此黯淡。我不同意认为特朗普只是个疯子、会毁掉美国的说法。过去4年，特朗普任总统期间被所谓的“通俄门”这种荒谬指控牵扯，遭遇持续攻击，如今甚至有过之而无不及。但即便如此，他仍能保持头脑清晰，整体执政成绩不错。在我看来，他非常精明，记忆力惊人，善于建立关系，也能牢牢记住自己要处理的林林总总事务。头四年是他的绝佳训练场，我认为接下来四年他会成为一位出色的总统。

So for these reasons, what I saw in the markets that day was completely unwarranted. And I believe that over time, more and more people will be able to overcome his sometimes irritating and upsetting rhetoric and come over to my views of him. So when you think about tariffs and Trump, you must keep in mind that he is only 1.5 years -- only has 1.5 years until the midterms to deal with the issues and it doesn't have the time to pussyfoot around. And you must understand his mindset, which is that when he says about when he -- what he says about, what he is going to do is just a negotiating stance for the moment. And he always maintain the right to change his mind.

因此，那天市场的表现在我看来完全没有道理。我相信随着时间推移，越来越多的人会克服对他言辞偶尔令人恼火、震动的反感，转而认同我的观点。谈到关税和特朗普，必须记住，他距离中期选举只有一年半时间，没有功夫拖拖拉拉。你得理解他的思维方式：他说要做什么，往往只是当下的谈判姿态，他始终保留随时改变主意的权利。

So I think the tariff issues will be largely resolved for the most part, fairly soon, although It will have a very long tail and counterparties for a long time will not know for sure what the deal is that they have really made. But as far as the U.S. economy is concerned, the issue will have been resolved soon after -- soon hereafter and very favorably for the U.S. That is the reason why I quote for the greatest bull market on April 7.

所以我认为，关税问题在大多数情况下将很快得到解决，虽然会留下长尾，交易对手可能长期都不确定自己真正达成了什么协议。但就美国经济而言，这个问题很快就会解决，而且对美国极为有利。这就是我在4月7日预测将出现史上最大牛市的原因。

I think Trump will try to run the economy at a rapid rate. I think it will be good for business and better for opportunity-seeking nimble businesses than sturdy older ones. I think he will not view the deficits as seriously as many conservatives. I think deficits will be rising and inflation will rise along with it, but the economy will be very productive and business will, on balance, do very well over the next 3 years.

我认为特朗普会尝试以快速节奏推动经济运行，这对企业有利，尤其是那些灵活、寻求机会的新锐企业，比老牌稳健企业受益更多。我想他不会像很多保守派那样严肃对待赤字；赤字会增加，通胀也会随之上升，但经济将保持高度创造力，总体而言，在未来三年里商业表现会非常好。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

So it looks, Thomas, like you've embedded -- that's an interesting view. It looks like you've embedded volatility, that volatility given the President and given the uncertainty over many things. And I think most people in the room know volatility is good for the trading markets. So I want to just turn to something more specifically to Interactive, but that's the retail environment. It's been super strong. As I talk to people in the hallway, they're just amazed that Interactive can put on account growth at 30% a year, that the velocity of trading is up.

看来托马斯，你已经把波动性纳入考量——这很有意思。鉴于总统及众多不确定因素带来的波动性，我想在座的大多数人都知道，波动性对交易市场是好事。我想把话题具体转到盈透，也就是零售环境。它表现非常强劲。我在走廊里与人交谈时，他们都惊讶于盈透每年能实现30%的账户增速，交易活跃度也在提高。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

Well, obviously, my view of the economy is -- it's colored by the picture I just painted. I think my thinking about the markets and retail and also professional investors who are most important segment of our Interactive Brokers is customer base. I would say that about 25% to 30% of our clients are institutional or professional investors and traders and the remaining 70% to 75% are retail. I include financial professionals, individual accounts in professional as opposed to retail. So while the retail segment is much larger than the professional segment, our customers are, our -- it is really the professional segment that determines how well our business is doing.

显然，我对经济的看法受我刚才描述的景象影响很大。我关于市场、零售以及专业投资者的思考，对于盈透最重要的客户群体来说十分关键。我想说，我们大约有25%到30%的客户是机构或专业投资者和交易员，其余70%到75%是零售。我把金融专业人士、个人账户归为专业而非零售。虽然零售规模远大于专业，但真正决定我们业务表现的却是专业客户群。

With that said and given my expectations for a very good business environment and rising markets, not only driven by business performance, but also by inflation, I expect a happy customer base, more people coming into the markets, especially the U.S. markets from all over the world.

鉴于此，再加上我对优良商业环境和上涨市场的预期，这不仅受业务表现驱动，也受通胀推动，我预计客户会满意，全球尤其是美国市场将有更多人进入。

I also think that other markets around the world will not be as good as the U.S. markets. This is due to deglobalization, the tariffs and also to indecision on part of many countries about the rules for business and the question about social divisions and to what extent they want to control their economy by their government.

我还认为，世界其他市场不会像美国市场表现那样好。原因包括去全球化、关税，以及许多国家在商业规则、社会分裂以及政府想要在多大程度上控制经济方面的犹豫不决。

In other words, business in other countries will continue to be restrained by uncertainty of laws and protection of private property and the tendency to redistribute profits and limit the growth of private enterprise. For the past 12 months ending in May, our customer accounts have grown by 32%, account equity by 29%, commissions by 32% and interest income by 31%. This is a very stable picture, and I expect it to continue at somewhat lower rates in the first -- as the first half of the year tends to be somewhat better than the second half.

换句话说，其他国家的商业活动将继续受到法律不确定性、私人财产保护不足、利润再分配倾向及限制私营企业增长等因素的制约。截止到5月的过去12个月，我们的客户账户增长了32%，账户权益增长29%，佣金收入增长32%，利息收入增长31%。这是非常稳定的格局，我预计在今年上半年的表现通常好于下半年，因此接下来表现将略低一些。

So in other words, from here, continuing for the next 6 months, it will be lower and then it will pick up again. And then we will be sitting here a year from now, I think the numbers will be pretty much the same.

也就是说，在未来6个月里增速会放缓，随后再次回升。当我们明年此时再坐在这里时，我认为这些数字将大致相同。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

Nice. So given all the activity, there's a lot of attention in the space. And I just want to ask you about competition. You have Robinhood as a competitor who has done a lot of things to bring, as they claim, democratize the markets, you get a new company coming, it just became public, eToro. Thomas, how do you think about competition as you see these other companies spring up, I guess?

很好。鉴于目前行业内的种种动向，这个领域受到了极大关注。我想询问一下有关竞争的问题。你们的竞争对手之一 Robinhood 号称让市场更加民主化，并且做了很多举措；此外还有一家刚刚上市的新公司 eToro。托马斯，当你看到这些新公司不断涌现时，你如何看待竞争？

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

Well, the brokerage business has always been competitive. Over the past 30 years, the business has gone digital. Many firms who did not convert in time have folded or got merged into other firms. Currently, all the large well-performing businesses are digital, but to a greater or lesser extent. I, of course, strongly believe that in order to remain in the game over the next 2 decades, you must be on the forefront of technology to be easily able to incorporate new technologies and to be able to offer those to your customers without much disruption. I'm fairly certain that IBKR is well positioned for that, but I think it's extremely important to be constantly embracing and adopting new technologies.

事实上，经纪业务一直竞争激烈。在过去 30 年里，该行业已实现数字化。许多未能及时转型的公司要么倒闭，要么被并入其他公司。目前所有大型且表现优异的企业多少都是数字化运营。当然，我坚信，如果想在未来二十年继续立足，就必须站在技术前沿，能够轻松整合新技术，并在不产生重大干扰的情况下向客户提供这些技术。我相当确定 IBKR 在这方面已处于有利位置，但持续接受并采纳新技术极其重要。

As far as your question about HOOD (sic) \[ Robinhood ] and eToro is concerned, given the price/earnings ratio of 45 for HOOD, and I do not know what it is for eToro, the market certainly believes that they have a much superior future to that of IBKR. I certainly go along with the notion that they are both great companies, but which one of us will eventually turn out to be the highest growth and best earner, your guess is as good as mine, but you know where I keep my money.

至于你提到的 HOOD（Robinhood）和 eToro，考虑到 HOOD 的市盈率为 45，而 eToro 我就不清楚了，市场显然认为它们的前景远优于 IBKR。我同意它们都是优秀公司这一说法，但最终哪一家能实现最高增长、赚到最多利润，谁也说不准，不过你知道我的资金投向在哪里。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

And it's done very well. Since we're on the topic of growth and we are ticking down here in time, but 2 areas of growth -- and if you're following the retail markets and trade. But this idea or phenomenon of 24-hour trading is one, if you could just touch on that. And the other, I know you're excited about this but it's Forecast X. It's the new event sort of futures platform that you launched.

贵公司表现相当出色。既然谈到增长，而且时间有限，我想提到两个增长领域——如果你关注零售市场和交易的话。其一是 24 小时交易现象，可否简单谈谈？另一项，我知道你对此非常兴奋，就是 Forecast X——你们推出的全新事件型期货平台。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

Okay. So 24-hour trading. We were a bit mistreated by markets and the news about 24-hour trading because we have made our markets available for 24 hours a day to our customers well before anybody else has done. But it's always about Robinhood. But anyway, 24-hour trading has become more and more acceptable. This is a genie that I think would be very, very difficult to put back into the bottle. 24-hour trading is obviously very important to many people in the far, middle and near East, much more so than in the U.S. or even in Europe. But our experience shows that volumes are rising extremely fast. Other institutions and exchanges are waking up to this reality. And I think that in 3 to 5 years, the overnight sessions will be just as liquid as markets currently are between 11 a.m. and 1 p.m. In May, 2.2% of our volume was done in overnight trading. I expect this number to rise to about 25% to 30% in the next 20 years.

好的，关于 24 小时交易。市场和媒体在此事上对我们有些忽略，因为早在其他任何公司之前，我们就已向客户提供全天候交易，但话题总是围绕 Robinhood。无论如何，24 小时交易正日益被接受。我认为这只“精灵”很难再放回瓶子里。对于远东、中东及近东的许多人来说，24 小时交易显然比美国乃至欧洲更为重要。从我们的经验看，交易量正以极快速度增长，其他机构和交易所也开始意识到这一现实。我认为再过 3 到 5 年，夜盘的流动性将与目前上午 11 点至下午 1 点的市场相当。今年 5 月，我们有 2.2% 的成交量发生在夜盘。我预计在未来 20 年，这一比例将升至约 25% 至 30%。

Now as far as ForecastEx, Well, on the long run, people, I think, must be under 3 major fundamental forces. The number 1 is the environment as it's shaped by the climate. And here, I'd like to show you a chart, if I may. You guys had that chart?

至于 ForecastEx，我认为从长远来看，人们必须面对三大基本力量。第一是由气候塑造的环境。这里我想展示一张图表，可以吗？你们那边有这张图吗？

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

I think they do.

我想他们有。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

So climate change is certainly one of the big questions. The second, of course, is the various factors in the economy, which determines our means and boundaries. And thirdly, politics. And so, politics and the economy is certainly, and to an undetermined extent, the climate is under our control. But it is under our control communally and not individually. So the question is how to provide the individuals in our society with the tool to be able to exert their control over these forces in unison, in a coordinated manner, while still under their own individual self-determination.

因此，气候变化无疑是重大议题之一。第二当然是经济中的各种因素，它们决定我们的能力与边界。第三则是政治。因此，政治与经济，以及在一定程度上气候，都处于我们的掌控之下，但这是共同而非个人层面的掌控。问题在于，如何为社会中的个人提供工具，使他们能够在保持自主决策的同时，以协调一致的方式共同对这些力量施加影响。

The broad answer is that market forces direct us, but these forces aren't sufficiently explicit to answer each individual's questions about what to do and when and how to do it to maximize their own contributions and their own benefits. ForecastTrader tend to go some way in that direction. We provide users with the historical data and current estimates of future data points, asking questions and giving feedback to users about coming events, unbiased consensus opinions about the decisions they need to make in their lives. As the questions and tools evolve, we intend to come ever closer to each individual and their particular situation to enable them to find the optimal decisions about how in view of their own needs and capabilities that it can contribute the most and maximize the benefits they receive. On the long run, forecast contracts will be hedging tool for professional users and analytical decision-making tools for individuals.

广义而言，市场力量会指引我们，但这些力量不足以明确回答每个人关于做什么、何时做、如何做，以最大化自身贡献与收益的疑问。ForecastTrader 在这方面迈出了一步。我们向用户提供历史数据以及对未来数据点的当前估计，提出问题并就即将发生的事件向用户反馈，给予他们关于生活中所需决策的无偏共识观点。随着问题与工具的不断演进，我们打算更加贴近每位个人及其具体情境，使他们能在自身需求与能力的框架下找到最优决策，从而贡献最大价值并获取最大利益。从长远看，预测合约将成为专业用户的对冲工具，也会成为个人的分析型决策工具。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

Thanks, Thomas. We brought multimedia to the conference here. We're going to skip a couple. I think people should know, if you don't know, IBKR is going to do a stock split on June 18. We've talked about valuation as well. So just given the amount of time I want to get to what I think is the most interesting question to end up with and that's about American or U.S. exceptionalism. IBKR, I think, I pretty well know, is unique in that it contributes to U.S. exceptionalism. It's a global broker that is all over the world is looked at as a leading broker headquartered here in the U.S., but it also benefits because global investors, as you have many times disclosed, trade U.S. stocks, and that's the predominant thing. So the question is, what do you believe the standing of the U.S., U.S. exceptionalism, will it continue? Will people continue to want to invest as aggressively in the U.S. as prior?

谢谢你，Thomas。我们这次会议带来了多媒体内容，不过有几项我们要跳过。我想大家应该知道，如果还不知道的话，IBKR 将在 6 月 18 日进行股票拆分，我们也谈到了估值问题。考虑到时间，我想把焦点放在我认为最有意思的收尾问题——美国例外主义。依我所知，IBKR 的独特之处在于它为美国例外主义增添了光彩；作为一家总部在美国、遍布全球的领先券商，它还能受益于全球投资者——正如你多次披露——主要交易美国股票。所以问题是，你认为美国的地位、美国例外主义是否会延续？人们是否仍会像以往那样积极投资美国？

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

I'm a firm believer in American exceptionalism. In my view, this exceptional rests on 3 unshakable foundations, each unique, each enduring and not likely to falter in the near foreseeable future. First, geography. The United States is blessed with vast fertile land, abundant natural resources and 2 oceans that buffer it from many global threats. It is ideal climate zones, navigable rivers and internal trade routes have fuel prosperity. Unique geography has not only protected the nation, but also enabled its rise as an economic and military powerhouse.

我坚信美国例外主义。在我看来，这种卓越基于三大不可动摇的根基，每一项都独一无二、历久弥坚，并且在可预见的未来都不会动摇。第一是地理。美国拥有广袤肥沃的土地、丰富的自然资源，以及两大洋的屏障，使其免受许多全球威胁。理想的气候带、可通航的河流与内陆贸易路线促进了繁荣；这种独特地理不仅保护了国家，也助力其成为经济与军事强国。

Second, the constitution. More than a governing document, the U.S. constitution is the bedrock of a stable and enduring democratic experiment. It limits power, protects freedom and provides the flexibility needed to adopt over the centuries. Crucially, it lays down the ideal legal foundation for the evolution of a free market economy. One design not for the benefit of the state but for the empowerment and prosperity of a free people. It is the reason for the United States has achieved continuity without stagnation and order without tyranny.

第二是宪法。美国宪法不仅是一部治理文件，更是稳定且持久的民主实验基石。它限制权力、保护自由，并提供数百年来所需的灵活性。关键在于，它为自由市场经济的发展奠定了理想的法律基础——旨在赋能并造福自由民众，而非国家本身。正因如此，美国得以实现延续而不僵化、秩序而无专制。

Third and most importantly, the people. Above all, it is the American people, diverse, ambitious, restless who made the nation exceptional. These are not just empty phrases. There is a solid evidence and reason for this. U.S. citizens are a unique assembly. The descendants of individuals who at some point in their lives, had the courage and enterprising spirit to leave their familiar homes behind in search of opportunities determined by -- determined to succeed in a new and different land. That spirit indeed, the very DNA of boldness, curiosity and aspiration is inherited. It has been passed on through the generations. It continues to be renewed and strengthened by a constant infusion of newly arriving individuals who come to America in search of opportunity.

第三也是最重要的，是人民。最根本的是多元、雄心勃勃、永不满足的美国人民成就了这个国家的卓越。这绝非空洞之词，而有确凿依据。美国公民是一群独特的集合体，他们的祖辈在生命中的某个时刻，曾勇敢地离开熟悉家园，怀揣开拓精神，决心在新天地中取得成功。这种精神——大胆、好奇与抱负的 DNA——得以传承，并因不断有新移民为寻求机会而涌入美国而持续更新、加强。

某些地区可能出现一段时间的雄心勃勃，接着就需要压一压。

With the culture and the priceless innovation, resilience, individual liberty, Americans have repeatedly reshaped the world in technology, economics and ideas. The spirit doesn't drain. It will endure. Given my belief in American exceptionalism, it is clear to me that the U.S. economy will continue to prevail in the world. U.S. stocks will keep on rising for a long time. Investors from all over the world will keep investing their excess funds in the United States.

依靠文化、宝贵的创新力、韧性与个人自由，美国人在科技、经济和思想领域不断重塑世界。这股精神不会枯竭，它将长存。基于我对美国例外主义的信念，我确信美国经济将在全球继续占优，美国股市将长期上行，全球投资者也将持续把剩余资金投入美国。

Patrick Moley Piper Sandler & Co.

That's a wrap. Thank you, Thomas. It's been a flashback. You've contributed in Interactive Brokers, in my opinion, as a Hungarian immigrant that founded this company, a leading global broker have contributed to U.S. exceptionalism as well. So thank you.

就到这里吧。谢谢你，Thomas。这让人回想往昔。作为一名创立这家全球领先券商的匈牙利移民，你在盈透证券的贡献同样推动了美国例外主义的发展。感谢你。

Thomas Peterffy Founder & Chairman

Thank you.

谢谢。

2025-06-05 Thomas Peterffy.Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Trading Conference

2025-06-05 Thomas Peterffy.Piper Sandler Global Exchange and Trading Conference

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