Sundar Pichai
(00:00:00)
It was a five-year waiting list, and we got a rotary telephone. But it dramatically changed our lives. People would come to our house to make calls to their loved ones. I would have to go all the way to the hospital to get blood test records and it would take two hours to go and they would say, “Sorry, it’s not ready. Come back the next day.”, two hours to come back. And that became a five-minute thing. So as a kid, this light bulb went in my head, this power of technology to change people’s lives.
当时要排五年队，我们拿到的是一个转盘电话。可它却彻底改变了我们的生活。人们会到我们家打电话给亲人。我需要跑到医院去拿血检报告，来回要两个小时，他们还会说：“抱歉，还没准备好，明天再来。”来回两小时。而现在这事五分钟就搞定了。小时候，我脑海中亮起了一个念头：科技的力量能改变人们的生活。
(00:00:32)
We had no running water. It was a massive drought, so they would get water in these trucks, maybe eight buckets per household. So me and my brother, sometimes my mom, we would wait in line, get that and bring it back home. Many years later, we had running water and we had a water heater, and you could get hot water to take a shower. For me, everything was discreet like that.
那个时候家里连自来水都没有。那是一场严重的干旱，人们用卡车运水，每户可能只有八桶。所以我和哥哥，有时还有妈妈，会排队取水，运回家。多年以后，我们有了自来水和热水器，可以洗热水澡。对我而言，生活中的一切都是如此点滴变化。
(00:01:02)
So, I’ve always had this thing, first-hand feeling of how technology can dramatically change your life, and the opportunity it brings. I think if p(doom) is actually high, at some point, all of humanity is aligned in making sure that’s not the case, and so we’ll actually make more progress against it, I think. So the irony is there is a self-modulating aspect there. I think if humanity collectively puts their mind to solving a problem, whatever it is, I think we can get there.
因此，我一直有这样的第一手体会：科技能够戏剧性地改变你的生活，并带来无数机会。我认为，如果“末日概率”真的很高，总有一天全人类会齐心协力，确保那种情况不会发生，这样我们实际上会在抵御风险上取得更多进展。讽刺的是，这其中存在一种自我调节的机制。我觉得，只要人类共同努力解决问题，无论是什么问题，我们都能做到。
(00:01:38)
Because of that, I think I’m optimistic on the p(doom) scenarios, but that doesn’t mean I think the underlying risk is actually pretty high. But I have a lot of faith in humanity rising up to meet that moment.
正因为如此，我对“末日”情景持乐观态度，但这并不意味着我认为潜在风险很低。我对人类能够挺身而出应对挑战充满信心。
Lex Fridman
(00:01:55)
Take me through that experience, when there’s all these articles saying, ” You’re the wrong guy to lead Google through this. Google’s lost. It’s done. It’s over.”
那段经历是怎样的？当时有那么多文章说，“你不是带领谷歌度过这场危机的合适人选，谷歌完了，结束了。”
Introduction
Lex Fridman
(00:02:08)
The following is a conversation with Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google and Alphabet on this, the Lex Fridman podcast.
以下内容是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客与谷歌及Alphabet首席执行官桑达尔·皮查伊的对话。
Growing up in India
Lex Fridman
(00:02:18)
Your life story is inspiring to a lot of people. It’s inspiring to me. You grew up in India, whole family living in a humble two-room apartment, very little, almost no access to technology. And from those humble beginnings, you rose to lead a \$2 trillion technology company.
你的生活经历激励了很多人，也激励了我。你在印度长大，全家住在两居室的小公寓里，资源匮乏，几乎没有科技可用。从这些 humble 的起点，你却成长为一家市值2万亿美元科技公司的领军者。
(00:02:41)
If you could travel back in time and told that, let’s say, twelve-year-old Sundar that you’re now leading one of the largest companies in human history, what do you think that young kid would say?
如果你能穿越回去，告诉12岁的你现在要领导一家人类历史上最大的公司，你想当时的自己会作何反应？
Sundar Pichai
(00:02:51)
I would’ve probably laughed it off. Probably too far-fetched to imagine or believe at that time.
我可能会一笑置之。当时根本想象不出这么夸张的事。
Lex Fridman
(00:03:00)
You would have to explain the internet first.
你得先给他解释“互联网”是什么。
Sundar Pichai
(00:03:02)
For sure. Computers to me, at that time, I was 12 in 1984, so probably… By then, I’d started reading about them, but I hadn’t seen one.
当然得。那时我1984年才12岁，大概……我当时开始看相关书，但还没见过一台真正的电脑。
Lex Fridman
(00:03:16)
What was that place like? Take me to your childhood.
当时的地方是什么样的？带我回到你的童年吧。
Sundar Pichai
(00:03:19)
I grew up in Chennai. It’s in south of India. It’s a beautiful, bustling city, lots of people, lots of energy, simple life. Definitely fond memories of playing cricket outside the home. We just used to play on the streets. All the neighborhood kids would come out and we would play until it got dark and we couldn’t play anymore, barefoot. Traffic would come. We would just stop the game. Everything would drive through and you would just continue playing, just to get the visual in your head.
我在钦奈长大，那是在印度南部。那是一座美丽、繁华的城市，人很多，充满活力，生活很简单。我对在家门外打板球有着美好的回忆。我们就光着脚在街上玩。邻里所有的孩子都会出来，我们一直玩到天黑，实在玩不下去才停。车流驶过时，我们就暂停比赛，等车都过去后再继续玩，希望你能在脑海中形成这个画面。
(00:03:51)
Pre computers, there a lot of free time, now that I think about it. Now you have to go and seek that quiet solitude or something. Newspapers, books is how I gained access to the world’s information at the time \[inaudible 00:04:06].
在电脑普及之前，我们有很多空闲时间，现在回想起来。我得主动去寻找那种安静的独处时光。那时接触世界信息的方式就是报纸和书籍 \[此处音频不清 00:04:06]。
(00:04:07)
My grandfather was a big influence. He worked in the post office. He was so good with language. His English… His handwriting, till today, is the most beautiful handwriting I’ve ever seen. He would write so clearly. He was so articulate, and so he got me introduced into books. He loved politics. We could talk about anything.
我的祖父对我影响很大。他在邮局工作，语言能力极强。他的英语……他的手写字迹至今仍是我见过最美的。他写字极其工整，表达也很清晰。因此，是他引导我接触书籍。他热爱政治，我们可以无所不谈。
(00:04:33)
That was there in my family throughout. Lots of books, trashy books, good books, everything from Ayn Rand to books on philosophy to stupid crime novels. Books was a big part of my life, but the soul, it’s not surprising I ended up at Google, because Google’s mission always resonated deeply with me. This access to knowledge, I was hungry for it.
在我们家，书籍一直很丰富，无论垃圾读物还是好书，从安·兰德的作品到哲学书籍，再到那些无聊的犯罪小说，样样都有。书籍在我生活中占了很大比重。也正因为如此，我最终走到了谷歌并不让人意外，因为谷歌的使命与我产生了深刻共鸣。我渴望获取知识，而谷歌赋予了我这种获取的渠道。
(00:04:58)
But definitely have fond memories of my childhood. Access to knowledge was there, so that’s the wealth we had. Every aspect of technology I had to wait for a while. I’ve obviously spoken before about how long it took for us to get a phone, about five years, but it’s not the only thing.
我对童年确实满怀美好回忆。我们拥有获取知识的途径，这就是我们最大的财富。科技的各个方面都需要等待才能到来。我之前提到过我们等待电话的时间——大约五年——但这并非唯一需要等待的事。
Lex Fridman
(00:05:15)
A telephone?
电话？
Sundar Pichai
(00:05:16)
There was a five-year waiting list, and we got a rotary telephone. But it dramatically changed our lives. People would come to our house to make calls to their loved ones. I would have to go all the way to the hospital to get blood test records, and it would take two hours to go and they would say, “Sorry, it’s not ready. Come back the next day.”, two hours to come back. And that became a five-minute thing. So as a kid, this light bulb went in my head, this power of technology to change people’s lives.
当时要排五年队，我们才拿到一个转盘电话。可它却彻底改变了我们的生活。人们会到我们家打电话给亲人。我需要跑到医院去取血检报告，往返要两个小时，他们还会说：“抱歉，还没好，明天再来。”来回两小时。而现在这事五分钟就搞定了。小时候，我脑海中亮起了一个念头：科技的力量能改变人们的生活。
(00:05:48)
We had no running water. It was a massive drought, so they would get water in these trucks, maybe eight buckets per household. So me and my brother, sometimes my mom, we would wait in line, get that and bring it back home. Many years later, we had running water and we had a water heater, and you could get hot water to take a shower. For me, everything was discreet like that. So, I’ve always had this thing, first-hand feeling of how technology can dramatically change your life, and the opportunity it brings. That was a subliminal takeaway for me throughout growing up. I actually observed it and felt it.
我们家没有自来水，那是一场严重的干旱，人们用卡车运水，每户可能只有八桶。因此，我和哥哥，有时还有妈妈，会排队取水，运回家。多年后，我们才有了自来水和热水器，可以洗热水澡。对我而言，生活中的一切都是如此点滴变化。所以，我一直有这样的第一手体会：科技能够戏剧性地改变你的生活并带来机会。这种潜意识的领悟伴随我整个成长过程，我亲眼见证并真切感受到了。
(00:06:41)
We had to convince my dad for a long time to get a VCR. Do you know what a VCR is?
我们曾花很长时间说服父亲买一台录像机。你知道录像机是什么吗？
Lex Fridman
(00:06:48)
Yes.
知道。
Sundar Pichai
(00:06:49)
I’m trying to date you now. Because before that, you only had one TV channel. That’s it. So, you can watch movies or something like that, but this was by the time I was in 12th grade, we got a VCR. It was a Panasonic, which we had to go to some shop which had smuggled it in, I guess, and that’s where we bought a VCR. But then being able to record a World Cup football game or get bootleg videotapes and watch movies, all that.
我这是在考验你的年代感呢。在那之前，你家电视只有一个频道，就那样。可以看电影之类的节目。但到我高三那年，我们才买到录像机。那是一台松下牌子，我们得去一家可能走私进货的店里买。拿到录像机后，就能录制世界杯比赛，或买到盗版磁带来看电影，诸如此类。
(00:07:26)
So I had these discrete memories growing up, and so always left me with the feeling of how getting access to technology drives that step change in your life.
于是，我在成长过程中积累了这些零散的记忆，这让我始终深信：获得科技接入会给你的生活带来飞跃式的改变。
Lex Fridman
(00:07:38)
I don’t think you’ll ever be able to equal the first time you get hot water.
我觉得你永远无法忘记第一次用上热水的感觉。
Sundar Pichai
(00:07:42)
To have that convenience of going and opening a tap and have hot water come out? Yeah.
能享受打开水龙头就出热水的便利？是的。
Lex Fridman
(00:07:47)
It’s interesting. We take for granted the progress we’ve made. If you look at human history, just those plots that look at GDP across 2,000 years, and you see that exponential growth to where most of the progress happened since the Industrial Revolution, and we just take for granted, we forget how far we’ve gone. So, our ability to understand how great we have it and also how quickly technology can improve is quite poor.
很有意思。我们常把自己取得的进步视作理所当然。如果回顾人类历史，观察过去两千年GDP的走势，会看到指数级的增长，而绝大多数进步都发生在工业革命以来。但我们常常忘记走了多远，所以我们很难真正意识到自己有多幸福，也难以体会技术进步的速度之快。
Sundar Pichai
(00:08:17)
Oh. I mean, it’s extraordinary. I go back to India now, the power of mobile. It’s mind blowing to see the progress through the arc of time. It’s phenomenal.
哦，那真是非同寻常。我现在回印度，看着移动互联网的力量，通过时间的长河所取得的进步令人震撼，真是令人赞叹。
Advice for young people
Lex Fridman
(00:08:27)
What advice would you give to young folks listening to this all over the world, who look up to you and find your story inspiring, who want to be maybe the next Sundar Pichai, who want to start, create companies, build something that has a lot of impact in the world?
对于全球听众中那些仰慕你、被你的经历所激励、希望成为下一个桑达尔·皮查伊、想创业、创建公司并在世界上产生巨大影响的年轻人，你有什么建议？
Sundar Pichai
(00:08:45)
You have a lot of luck along the way, but you obviously have to make smart choices, you’re thinking about what you want to do, your brain is telling you something. But when you do things, I think it’s important to get that… Listen to your heart and see whether you actually enjoy doing it. That feeling of if you love what you do, it’s so much easier, and you’re going to see the best version of yourself. It’s easier said than done. I think it’s tough to find things you love doing. But I think listening to your heart a bit more than your mind in terms of figuring out what you want to do, I think is one of the best things I would tell people.
一路走来你会很幸运，但显然你必须做出明智的选择：你思考自己想做什么，你的大脑会给你提示。但当你真正做事情时，我觉得倾听内心、确认自己是否真正享受其中非常重要。只有热爱所做之事，才能轻松前行，并展现出最好的自己。说起来容易做起来难，确实很难找到自己热爱的事。但我告诉大家的最好建议之一，就是在决定做什么时，多听从内心，而不仅仅是理性思考。
(00:09:26)
The second thing is trying to work with people who you feel… At various points in my life I’ve worked with people who I felt were better than me. You almost are sitting in a room talking to someone and they’re wow. you want that feeling a few times. Trying to get yourself in a position where you’re working with people who you feel are stretching your abilities is what helps you grow, I think, so putting yourself in uncomfortable situations. And I think often you’ll surprise yourself.
第二点是，尽量与那些你觉得比自己更优秀的人一起工作。我人生中在不同阶段都与这样的人共事：当你坐在一起交流时，你会心生敬佩。那种感受，你会希望不止一次。把自己置于与能激发你潜能的人共事的环境中，才有助于成长——让自己处于不舒适的情境中。我认为，你常常会因此给自己带来惊喜。
(00:10:01)
So, I think being open minded enough to put yourself in those positions is maybe another thing I would say.
所以，我会建议你保持足够的开放心态，把自己置于那些环境中。
Styles of leadership
Lex Fridman
(00:10:09)
What lessons can we learn? Maybe from an outsider perspective, for me, looking at your story and gotten to know you a bit, you’re humble, you’re kind. Usually when I think of somebody who has had a journey like yours and climbs to the very top of leadership in a cutthroat world, they’re usually going to be a bit of an asshole. What wisdom are we supposed to draw from the fact that your general approach is of balance, of humility, of kindness, listening to everybody. What’s your secret?
我们能学到什么？从一个旁观者的角度来看，我了解你的故事后发现，你谦逊、善良。通常，我认为那些经历艰辛之路、在残酷世界里爬到最高层的人，往往会变得强硬或尖锐。但你的总体方式却是平衡、谦逊、善意，并且听取所有人的意见。我们该从中吸取什么智慧？你的“秘笈”是什么？
Sundar Pichai
(00:10:41)
I do get angry. I do get frustrated. I have the same emotions all of us do in the context of work and everything. But a few things: I think I… Over time I figured out the best way to get the most out of people. You find mission-oriented people who are in the shared journey, who have this inner drive to excellence to do the best. You motivate people and you can achieve a lot that way. It often tends to work out that way.
我也会生气，也会沮丧，和大家在工作中经历的情绪一样。但有几点：随着时间推移，我摸索出了激发他人潜能的最佳方式。你要找到那些以使命为导向、与你同路且内心渴望卓越的人。你激励他们，这样就能共同取得巨大成就，通常效果颇佳。
(00:11:19)
But have there been times I lose it? Yeah. Maybe less often than others, and maybe over the years less and less so, because I find it’s not needed to achieve what you need to do.
但我有没有失控的时候？有的。不过，也许比其他人少一些，且随着时间推移愈发少，因为我发现那并非完成工作所必需。
Lex Fridman
(00:11:35)
So, losing your shit has not been productive?
所以，大发雷霆并没有什么成效？
Sundar Pichai
(00:11:38)
Less often than not. I think people respond to that.
大多数情况下没什么用。我觉得人们对那种行为会有所反应。
Lex Fridman
(00:11:40)
Yeah.
对。
Sundar Pichai
(00:11:41)
They may do stuff to react to that. You actually want them to do the right thing. I’m a sports fan. In soccer, not football, people often talk about man management. Great coaches do. I think there is an element of that in our lives. How do you get the best out of the people you work with?
他们可能会做出一些反应。但你真正希望的是他们做正确的事。我是个体育迷。在足球领域，人们常讲“人性化管理”，伟大的教练会这样做。我觉得我们生活中也有类似的元素——如何让与你共事的人发挥出最佳状态？
(00:12:08)
At times, you’re working with people who are so committed to achieving, if they’ve done something wrong, they feel it more than you do, so you treat them differently than… Occasionally, there are people who you need to clearly let them know that wasn’t okay or whatever it is. But I’ve often found that not to be the case.
有时候，你身边的人对目标如此执着，以至于如果他们做错了事，他们的自责会比你更深刻，所以你对他们的态度也会有所不同……偶尔也会遇到那种必须明确告诉对方“这样不行”或类似的情况。但我常常发现，大部分并非如此。
Lex Fridman
(00:12:28)
And sometimes the right words at the right time spoken firmly can reverberate through time.
有时候，恰当的话语在恰当的时机坚定地说出，就能产生深远影响。
Sundar Pichai
(00:12:35)
Also sometimes, the unspoken words. People can sometimes see that you’re unhappy without you saying it, and so sometimes the silence can deliver that message even more.
有时，无声胜有声。即便不言，人们也能察觉你的不悦，所以沉默有时传递的信息更有力。
Lex Fridman
(00:12:48)
Sometimes less is more.
有时，少即是多。
(00:12:50)
Who’s the greatest soccer player of all time? Messi, Ronaldo or Pelé or Maradona?
有史以来最伟大的足球运动员是谁？梅西、C罗、贝利还是马拉多纳？
Sundar Pichai
(00:12:55)
I’m going to make… In this question…
对于这个问题，我要……
Lex Fridman
(00:12:58)
Is this going to be a political answer, Sundar?
桑达尔，你这是要给个政治正确的答案吗？
Sundar Pichai
(00:12:58)
I’m not going to lie. I will tell the truthful answer, the truthful answer.
我不会说谎。我会给出真实答案，真的。
Lex Fridman
(00:13:03)
So it’s Messi, okay.
那肯定是梅西，对吧。
Sundar Pichai
(00:13:05)
It is. It’s been interesting. Because my son is a big Cristiano Ronaldo fan, and so we’ve had to watch El Clasicos together with that dynamic in there. I so admire CR7s. I mean, I’ve never seen an athlete more committed to that kind of excellence, and so he’s one of the all-time greats. But for me, Messi is it.
没错。挺有意思的，因为我儿子是C罗的超级粉丝，所以我们一起看过多场国家德比，现场气氛很微妙。我非常佩服C罗，从未见过哪位运动员对卓越如此执着，他绝对是史上伟大球员之一。但对我来说，梅西就是第一。
Lex Fridman
(00:13:31)
When I see Lionel Messi, you just are in awe that humans are able to achieve that level of greatness and genius and artistry. We’ll talk about AI, maybe robotics and this kind of stuff, that level of genius, I’m not sure you can possibly match by AI in a long time. It’s just an example of greatness. And you have that kind of greatness in other disciplines, but in sport, you get to visually see it, unlike anything else. Just the timing, the movement, there’s just genius.
当我看见梅西时，总感叹人类竟能达到如此伟大与天才的艺术境界。我们稍后会谈AI、或许还有机器人技术，但那种天才我想AI在很长一段时间内都很难匹配。这只是伟大的一种体现。在其他领域也存在这种伟大，但在体育中，你可以直观地看到：无与伦比的时机把控、无懈可击的动作，那就是天才。
Sundar Pichai
(00:14:03)
Had the chance to see him a couple of weeks ago. He played in San Jose against the Quakes, so I went to see the game. I had good seats, knew where he would play in the second half hopefully. And even at his age, just watching him when he gets the ball, that movement… You’re right, that special quality. It’s tough to describe, but you feel it when you see it, yeah.
几周前我正好有机会亲眼见他比赛。他在圣何塞对阵地震队的比赛中出场，我便去现场观战。我有不错的座位，希望能看到他下半场的表现。即便年过三十，看他拿球时的动作……你说得对，那种特殊品质难以言表，但亲眼所见便能感受到，真是出众。
Impact of AI in human history
Lex Fridman
(00:14:27)
He’s still got it. If we rank all the technological innovations throughout human history… Let’s go back maybe the history of human civilizations, 12,000 years ago, and you rank them by how much of a productivity multiplier they’ve been. We can go to electricity or the labor mechanization of the Industrial Revolution, or we can go back to the first Agricultural Revolution 12,000 years ago. In that long list of inventions, do you think AI… When history is written 1,000 years from now, do you think it has a chance to be the number one productivity multiplier?
他依旧出色。如果我们给人类历史上的所有技术创新排名——往前追溯到1万2千年前的文明史，按照它们对生产力的倍增作用来排序，可以是电力、工业革命时的劳动机械化，或最早的农业革命——在那长长的发明列表中，你认为AI……当历史在千年后被书写时，AI有可能成为首屈一指的生产力倍增器吗？
Sundar Pichai
(00:15:08)
It’s a great question. Many years ago, I think it might’ve been 2017 or 2018, I said at the time, AI is the most profound technology humanity will ever work on. It’ll be more profound than fire or electricity. So, I have to back myself. I still think that’s the case.
这是个很好的问题。多年前，大概在2017或2018年，我当时就说过，AI是人类将要研究的最深刻技术。它的影响将超过火与电。因此，我得为自己当初的判断负责，我依然认为如此。
(00:15:27)
When you ask this question, I was thinking, do we have a recency bias? In sports, it’s very tempting to call the current person you’re seeing the greatest…
你问这个问题时，我就在想，我们是否存在“近因偏差”？在体育界，很容易将眼前这位选手视为最伟大的人……
Lex Fridman
(00:15:35)
Yes.
是的。
Sundar Pichai
(00:15:36)
… player. Is there a recency bias? I do think, from first principles I would argue, AI will be bigger than all of those. I didn’t live through those moments. Two years ago, I had to go through a surgery, and then I processed that. There was a point in time people didn’t have anesthesia when they went through these procedures. At that moment, I was like, that has got to be the greatest invention humanity has ever, ever done. We don’t know what it is to have lived through those times.
……球员。有没有“近因偏差”？我认为，从基本原理出发，AI的影响将超过所有这些。我并未经历那些历史时刻。两年前我做了一次手术，然后我才意识到：过去接受手术时，人们没有麻醉药。在那一刻，我想，这一定是人类有史以来最伟大的发明。我们无法真正体会生活在那种时代是什么感受。
(00:16:12)
Many of what you’re talking about were this general things, which pretty much affected everything: electricity or internet, et cetera. But I don’t think we’ve ever dealt with the technology both which is progressing so fast, becoming so capable it’s not clear what the ceiling is, and the main, unique…. It’s recursively self-improving, it’s capable of that.
你提到的许多技术都是通用型的，对一切都有影响：电力、互联网等等。但我觉得我们从未遇到过一种技术，它既在高速进步，又拥有无法预见的上限，而且最关键且独特……它能自我递归地提升自身能力。
(00:16:41)
The fact it is the first technology will dramatically accelerate creation itself, like creating things, building new things, can improve and achieve things on its own, I think puts it in a different. So, I think the impact it’ll end up having will far surpass everything we’ve seen before. Obviously, with that comes a lot of important things to think and wrestle with, but I definitely think that’ll end up being the case.
正因为这是首个能显著加速“创造”本身的技术——它能自主地创造和构建新事物并不断完善——它与以往大不相同。所以，我认为它最终的影响将远超我们以往所见。当然，这也带来了许多重要且复杂的思考课题，但我坚信事实将如此。
Lex Fridman
(00:17:15)
Especially if it gets to the point of where we can achieve superhuman performance on the AI research itself. So, it’s a technology that may… It’s an open question, but it may be able to achieve a level to where the technology itself can create itself better than it could yesterday.
尤其当AI研究本身都能实现超人表现时。它可能……这是个开放性问题，但AI或许能达到这样一个境界：技术自身比昨天更能自行“进化”与“创造”。
Sundar Pichai
(00:17:33)
It’s like the move 37 of Alpha research or whatever it is.
就像AlphaGo的“第37步”或类似那种突破。
Lex Fridman
(00:17:38)
Yeah.
是的。
Sundar Pichai
(00:17:39)
You’re right, when it can do novel, self-directed research. Obviously, for a long time we’ll have hopefully always humans in the loop and all that stuff. These are complex questions to talk about. But yes, I think the underlying technology… I’ve said this, if you watched seeing AlphaGo start from scratch, be clueless, and become better through the course of a day, really, it hits you when you see that happen.
你说得对，当它能进行新颖且自我主导的研究时。显然，在很长一段时间内，我们仍需将人类置于决策环节。这些问题很复杂，但我认为底层技术……我曾这样说，如果你亲眼看AlphaGo从零开始、一无所知，乃至在一天之内变得更强，你会被深深震撼。
(00:18:13)
Even the Veo 3 models, if you sample the models when they were 30% done and 60% done, and looked at what they were generating, and you see how it all comes together, I would say it’s inspiring, a little bit unsettling, as a human. So all of that is true, I think.
即便是Veo 3模型，如果你在它们完成了30%和60%时对其进行采样，观察它们生成的作品，以及看到这一切如何融合，你会觉得它既激励人心，又有些令人不安，至少对人类而言确实如此。
Lex Fridman
(00:18:36)
The interesting thing of the Industrial Revolution, electricity, like you mentioned. You can go back to, again, the first Agricultural Revolution, there’s what’s called the Neolithic package of the first Agricultural Revolution. It wasn’t just that the nomads settled down and started planting food, but all this other kinds of technology was born from that, and it’s included this package. So, it wasn’t one piece of technology.
你提到工业革命、电力等有趣之处。我们还可以回到第一次农业革命——所谓新石器时代的“农业综合包”。不只是游牧民族定居种植食物，连带产生了一整套技术，构成了这个“包”。所以，这不是单一技术。
(00:19:05)
There’s these ripple effects, second- and third-order effects that happen, everything from something profound like pottery, it can store liquids and food, to something we take for granted: social hierarchies and political hierarchies. Early government was formed. Because it turns out if humans stop moving and have some surplus food, they get bored and they start coming up with interesting systems. And then trade emerges, which turns out to be a really profound thing, and like I said, government. Second- and third-order effects from that, including that package, is incredible and probably extremely difficult. If you ask one of the people in the nomadic tribes to predict that, it would be impossible, and it’s difficult to predict.
它带来的涟漪效应，二阶、三阶影响无处不在：从能储存液体和食物的陶器，到我们视为理所当然的社会等级和政治结构。早期政府因此诞生。原来人类一旦停止迁徙并有了余粮，就会因无聊而创造出各种有趣的制度。然后贸易出现，这才是真正深刻的事物，包括政府。如我所说，这些二阶、三阶效应极其惊人，也可能极难预测。如果让游牧部落中的某人去预测，根本不可能。
(00:19:56)
But all that said, what do you think are some of the early things we might see in the, quote, unquote, “AI package”?
说到这里，你认为我们在“AI综合包”中，最先会看到哪些方面？
Sundar Pichai
(00:20:07)
Most of it probably we don’t know today, but the one thing which we can tangibly start seeing now is… Obviously with the coding progress, you got a sense of it. It’s going to be so easy to imagine… Thoughts in your head, translating that into things that exist. That’ll be part of the package. It’s going to empower almost all of humanity to express themselves.
大多数我们今天还无法预知，但现在已经能切实看到的一点是……显然，通过代码生成的进展，你已有所感知。将脑海中的想法瞬间转化为真实存在，将成为“包”中的一部分。这将赋能几乎全人类表达自我。
(00:20:34)
Maybe in the past you could have expressed with words, but you could build things into existence. Maybe not fully today, we are at the early stages of vibe coding. I’ve been amazed at what people have put out online with Veo 3. But it takes a bit of work, you have to stitch together a set of prompts. But all this is going to get better. The thing I always think: this is the worst it’ll ever be, at any given moment in time.
过去你也许只能通过文字表达，而现在能“构建”万物。也许今天尚未完全实现，我们还处在“氛围编码”的初期。我对人们用Veo 3在线创作的作品感到惊讶。但这需要一些操作，需要拼接一系列提示。不过，这一切都会变得更好。我常想：在任何时刻，这都是最糟糕的状态。
Lex Fridman
(00:21:02)
It’s interesting you went there as a first thought: an exponential increase of access to creativity.
很有意思，你第一个想到的是：创造力获取的指数级增长。
Sundar Pichai
(00:21:11)
Software, creation… Are you creating a program, a piece of content to be shared with others, games down the line? All of that just becomes infinitely more possible.
软件、创作……你是在开发一个程序，还是制作一段可共享的内容，或是后续的游戏？所有这些都将变得无限可能。
Lex Fridman
(00:21:25)
I think the big thing is that it makes it accessible. It unlocks the cognitive capabilities of the entire 8 billion.
我认为最重要的是它变得可及。它解锁了全体80亿人口的认知能力。
Sundar Pichai
(00:21:33)
I agree. Think about 40 years ago, maybe in the US there were five people who could do what you were doing.
我同意。想想40年前，也许在美国只有五个人能做你现在正在做的事。
Lex Fridman
(00:21:40)
Mm-hmm.
嗯。
Sundar Pichai
(00:21:41)
Go do a interview… But today, think about, with YouTube and other products, et cetera, how many more people are doing it. I think this is what technology does. When the internet created blogs, you heard from so many more people. But with AI, I think that number won’t be in the few hundreds of thousands. It’ll be tens of millions of people, maybe even a billion people putting out things into the world in a deeper way.
去做一次采访……但今天，想想借助YouTube等产品，有多少更多人可以这样做。我认为这就是技术的作用。当互联网出现博客时，更多人有了发声的平台。而AI时代，这个数字不会只有几十万，而会变成数千万，甚至可能有十亿人以更深层的方式向世界输出内容。
Lex Fridman
(00:22:17)
And I think it’ll change the landscape of creativity. And it makes a lot of people nervous. For example, whatever, Fox, MSNBC, CNN are really nervous about this podcast. You mean this dude in a suit could just do this? And YouTube and thousands of others, tens of thousands, millions of other creators can do the same kind of thing? That makes them nervous. And now you get a podcast from Notebook LM that’s about five to 10 times better than any podcast I’ve ever done.
我认为它会改变创意领域的格局，也让很多人感到紧张。例如，Fox、MSNBC、CNN等对这个播客非常紧张。你说这位西装革履的家伙就能做播客？成千上万，甚至数百万的YouTube创作者都能做同样的节目？这让他们坐立不安。现在你还可以收听Notebook LM制作的播客，质量比我做过的任何播客都好五到十倍。
Sundar Pichai
(00:22:17)
Not true, but yeah.
不完全是，但确实如此。
Lex Fridman
(00:22:47)
I’m joking at this time, but maybe not. And that changes. You have to evolve. On the podcasting front, I’m a fan of podcasts much more than I am a fan of being a host or whatever. If there’s great podcasts that are both AIs, I’ll just stop doing this podcast. I’ll listen to that podcast. But you have to evolve and you have to change, and that makes people really nervous, I think. But it’s also really exciting future.
我现在是开玩笑，但也未必完全不可能。这一切都在改变，你必须进化。在播客领域，我更喜欢听播客，胜过自己做主持。如果出现AI主导的优秀播客，我可能就不再做这档节目了，直接去听它。但你得不断进化、不断变化，我想这让很多人非常紧张。但未来也因此充满激动人心的机会。
Sundar Pichai
(00:23:11)
The one thing I may say is, I do think in a world in which there are two AI, I think people value and choose… Just like in chess, you and I would never watch Stockfish 10 or whatever and AlphaGo play against each… It would be boring for us to watch. But Magnus Carlsen and Gukesh, that game would be much more fascinating to watch. So, it’s tough to say.
我想说的是，我确实认为在一个有两种AI的世界中，人们会有价值偏好并做出选择……就像国际象棋，我们从不会看Stockfish 10之类的AI彼此对弈——那对我们来说很无聊。但要看Magnus Carlsen和Gukesh之间的比赛，那就非常吸引人。因此，很难说清。
(00:23:36)
One way to say is you’ll have a lot more content, and so you will be listening to AI-generated content because sometimes it’s efficient, et cetera. But the premium experiences you value might be a version of the human essence wherever it comes through. Going back to what we talked earlier about watching Messi dribble the ball, I don’t know, one day I’m sure a machine will dribble much better than Messi. But I don’t know whether it would evoke that same emotion in us, so I think that’ll be fascinating to see.
可以这么说：你会有更多内容可听，其中一些是AI生成的，因为它们有时更高效等等。但那些你真正看重的优质体验，可能依然是某种“人类本质”的呈现。回到我们之前说的看梅西盘球的例子，我不知道，总有一天机器肯定能比梅西盘球更出色，但我不知道它是否能在我们心中激起同样的情感，所以这将十分有趣。
Lex Fridman
(00:24:05)
I think the element of podcasting or audio books that is about information gathering, that part might be removed, or that might be more efficiently and in a compelling way done by AI. But then it’ll be just nice to hear humans struggle with the information, contend with the information, try to internalize it, combine it with the complexity of our own emotions and consciousness and all that kind of stuff. But if you actually want to find out about a piece of history, you go to Gemini. If you want to see Lex struggle with that history, or other humans, you look at that.
我认为播客或有声书中用于信息收集的部分，可能会被移除，或由AI以更高效、更引人入胜的方式完成。但随后，你会更渴望听人类与信息搏斗、与信息抗争、试图将其内化，并与自身情感和意识的复杂性相结合的过程。如果你真正想了解某段历史，就去咨询Gemini；如果你想看Lex或其他人如何为理解那段历史而挣扎，就听播客。
Lex Fridman
(00:24:47)
The point is, it’s going to continue to change the nature of how we discover information, how we consume the information, how we create that information, the same way that YouTube changed everything completely. It changed the news. And that’s something our society’s struggling with.
关键是，这将持续改变我们发现信息、消费信息和创造信息的方式，就像YouTube彻底改变了一切那样。它改变了新闻传播方式，而这正是我们的社会正在挣扎适应的。
Sundar Pichai
(00:25:04)
YouTube enabled… You know this better than anyone else. It’s enabled so many creators. There is no doubt in me that we will enable more filmmakers than have ever been. You’re going to empower a lot more people. So I think there is an expansionary aspect of this, which is underestimated, I think. I think it’ll unleash human creativity in a way that hasn’t been seen before. It’s tough to internalize. The only way is if you brought someone from the ’50s or ’40s and just put them in front of YouTube, I think it would blow their mind away. Similarly, I think we would get blown away by what’s possible in a 10- to 20-year timeframe.
YouTube 带来了……这你比任何人都清楚。它让如此多的创作者得以发声。我毫不怀疑，我们将帮助比以往更多的电影制作人。你将赋能更多的人。所以我认为，这其中有一个被低估的扩张性方面。我认为它将以前所未见的方式释放人类创造力。这种感受很难理解——唯一能做到的办法，是把一个来自50或40年代的人放到 YouTube 面前，我想这会彻底震撼他们。同样，我认为如果让我们看到未来10到20年内的可能性，也会让我们大为震撼。
Lex Fridman
(00:25:45)
Do you think there’s a future? How many years out is it that, let’s say… Let’s put a marker on it… 50% of good content is generated by Veo 4, 5, 6?
你认为这样的未来会到来吗？要多少年后……我们打个标记……才会有50%的优质内容由 Veo 4、5、6 生成？
Sundar Pichai
(00:25:59)
I think it depends on what it is for. Maybe if you look at movies today with CGI, there are great filmmakers. You still look at who the directors are and who use it. There are filmmakers who don’t use it at all. You value that. There are people who use it incredibly. Think about somebody like a James Cameron, like what he would do with these tools in his hands.
我想这要看具体用途而定。比如看看今天的电影，CGI 很多；仍有杰出的导演，你会关注他们是谁以及他们如何使用CGI；也有导演完全不用CGI，你也同样珍视他们的作品。还有人将其用得淋漓尽致。想想詹姆斯·卡梅隆这样的人，他手握这些工具能做出什么。
(00:26:24)
But I think there’ll be a lot more content created. Just like writers today use Google Docs and not think about the fact that they’re using a tool like that, people will be using the future versions of these things. It won’t be a big deal at all to them.
但我认为将会有更多内容被创作出来。就像今天的写作者使用 Google 文档，都不会特别在意自己在用什么工具一样，人们也会使用这些工具的未来版本，对他们而言这根本不算什么。
Lex Fridman
(00:26:40)
I’ve gotten a chance to get to know Darren Aronofsky. He’s been really leaning in and trying to figure out… It’s fun to watch a genius who came up before any of this was even remotely possible. He created Pi, one of my favorite movies. And from there, he just continued to create a really interesting variety of movies. And now he’s trying to see how can AI be used to create compelling films. You have people like that.
我有机会认识了达伦·阿伦诺夫斯基。他真的投入其中，想弄明白……看一个在这些技术还遥不可及时就已崭露头角的天才，非常有趣。他拍了《Pi》（圆周率），那是我最喜欢的电影之一。从那之后，他继续创作了一系列非常有趣的影片。现在他在尝试探索如何用 AI 创作吸引人的电影。像他这样的人还有很多。
(00:27:07)
You have people I’ve gotten just to know, edgier folks, they are AI firsts, like Dor Brothers. Both Aronofsky and Dor Brothers create at the edge of the Overton window society. They push, whether it’s sexuality or violence. It’s edgy, like artists are, but it’s still classy. It doesn’t cross that line. Whatever that line is. Hunter S. Thompson has this line, “The only way to find out where the edge, where the line is, is by crossing it.” And I think for artists, that’s true. That’s their purpose sometimes. Comedians and artists just cross that line.
我还认识一些先锋派的人，比如多兄弟（Dor Brothers），他们是 AI 先行者。阿伦诺夫斯基和多兄弟都在森塔尔·欧文顿窗口（Overton Window）的边缘创作——无论是探讨性还是暴力，都非常锋利，但依旧高雅，没有跨过那条界限。无论那条界限在哪。亨特·S·汤普森有句话：“找到边缘、找到界限的唯一方法就是跨过去。”我认为对艺术家而言，这是真的，他们有时的使命就是跨过那条界限。喜剧演员和艺术家就会这样做。
(00:27:49)
I wonder if you can comment on the weird place that it puts Google. Because Google’s line is probably different than some of these artists. How do you think about, specifically Veo and Flow, how to allow artists to do crazy shit, but also the responsibility for it not to be too crazy?
我很好奇，你能谈谈这给 Google 带来的微妙处境吗？因为 Google 的界限可能和这些艺术家不同。你如何看待，尤其是针对 Veo 和 Flow，要如何既让艺术家做疯狂创作，又要承担起不让它过于疯狂的责任？
Sundar Pichai
(00:28:15)
It’s a great question. You mentioned Darren. He’s a clear visionary. Part of the reason we started working with him early on Veo is, he’s one of those people who’s able to see that future, get inspired by it, and showing the way for how creative people can express themselves with it. I think when it comes to allowing artistic free expression… It’s one of the most important values in a society, I think. Artists have always been the ones to push boundaries, expand the frontiers of thought.
这是个很好的问题。你提到达伦，他是个清晰的愿景家。我们之所以在 Veo 早期就与他合作，部分原因就是他能看到未来，并从中获得灵感，示范了创意人士如何利用这些技术来表达自我。我认为，当谈到允许艺术自由表达时……这是社会中最重要的价值观之一。艺术家历来是推动界限、拓展思想前沿的人。
(00:28:56)
I think that’s going to be an important value we have, so I think we will provide tools and put it in the hands of artists for them to use and put out their work. Those APIs, I almost think of that as infrastructure. Just like when you provide electricity to people or something, you want them to use it, and you’re not thinking about the use cases on top of it.
我认为这将是我们要秉持的重要价值，所以我们会提供工具，并交到艺术家手中，让他们使用并呈现作品。我几乎将那些 API 看作基础设施，就像你为人们提供电力一样，你希望他们使用，却不用考虑电力背后的具体用例。
Lex Fridman
(00:29:20)
It’s a paintbrush.
Sundar Pichai
(00:29:20)
Yeah. So, I think that’s how. Obviously, there have to be some things. And society needs to decide at a fundamental level what’s okay, what’s not, will be responsible with it. But I do think when it comes to artistic free expression, I think that’s one of those values we should work hard to defend.
没错。我觉得就是这样。当然，总会有一些限制，社会需要在根本层面决定什么可以，什么不行，并对之负责。但我确实认为，在艺术自由表达方面，这正是我们应该全力捍卫的价值之一。
Lex Fridman
(00:29:44)
I wonder if you can comment on maybe earlier versions of Gemini were a little bit careful on the kind of things it’d be willing to answer. I just want to comment on I was really surprised, and pleasantly surprised, and enjoy the fact that Gemini 2.5 Pro is a lot less careful, in a good sense. Don’t ask me why, but I’ve been doing a lot of research on Genghis Khan and the Aztecs, so there’s a lot of violence there in that history. It’s a very violent history. I’ve also been doing a lot of research on World War I and World War II.
我想请你谈谈，早期版本的 Gemini 在回答某些问题时显得比较谨慎。我要说的是，Gemini 2.5 Pro 现在好得多，让我既惊讶又高兴。别问我为什么，我最近在研究成吉思汗和阿兹特克人的历史，那段历史非常暴力。我也做了很多关于第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战的研究。
(00:30:19)
Earlier versions of Gemini were very… Basically this sense, are you sure you want to learn about this. And now, it’s actually very factual, objective, talks about very difficult parts of human history, and does so with nuance and depth. It’s been really nice. But there’s a line there that I guess Google has to walk. And it’s also an engineering challenge how to do that at scale across all the weird queries that people ask.
早期版本的 Gemini 会很……基本上会问你“你确定要了解这个吗？”。而现在它能够非常客观、非常基于事实地讨论人类历史中极其困难的部分，且充满细致和深度。这体验非常好。但我想，Google 在这里得拿捏一个尺度。如何在应对用户提出的各种奇怪问题时大规模地做到平衡，也是一个工程挑战。
(00:30:49)
Can you just speak to that challenge? How do you allow Gemini to say… Again, forgive, pardon my French… crazy shit, but not too crazy?
你能谈谈这个挑战吗？如何让 Gemini 可以说……再次请原谅我的直白……疯狂的东西，但又不能过于疯狂？
Sundar Pichai
(00:31:00)
I think one of the good insights here has been as the models are getting more capable, the models are really good at this stuff. And so I think in some ways, maybe a year ago, the models weren’t fully there, so they would also do stupid things more often. So you’re trying to handle those edge cases, but then you make a mistake in how you handle those edge cases and it compounds. But I think with 2.5, what we particularly found is once the models cross a certain level of intelligence and sophistication, they are able to reason through these nuanced issues pretty well.
我认为，一个重要的洞见是，随着模型能力的提升，它们对这些问题的处理越来越出色。所以我想，一年前模型可能还不够完善，偶尔会做出蠢事。于是你试图处理那些边缘案例，但有时处理方式又出错，错误会累积。但我们发现，在 2.5 版本中，一旦模型达到某个智力和复杂度水平，它们就能相当好地推理并处理这些细微问题。
(00:31:37)
And I think users really want that. You want as much access to the raw model as possible. I think it’s a great area to think about. Over time, we should allow more and more closer access to it. Obviously, let people custom prompts if they wanted to and experiment with it, et cetera. I think that’s an important direction.
我认为用户确实需要这种能力。你希望尽可能接近原始模型。我觉得这是个值得深思的方向。随着时间推移，我们应当给予用户越来越多的直接访问方式。显然，可以让大家自定义提示并进行试验。我认为这是一个重要的发展方向。
(00:32:04)
The first principles we want to think about it is, from a scientific standpoint, making sure the models… And I’m saying scientific in the sense of how you would approach math or physics or something like that. From first principles, having the models reason about the world, be nuanced, et cetera, from the ground up is the right way to build these things, not some subset of humans hard-coding things on top of it. I think it’s the direction we’ve been taking and I think you’ll see us continue to push in that direction.
我们应坚持的第一性原理是，从科学角度——我这里所说的科学，是指如同研究数学或物理那样——从基础开始让模型对世界进行推理，具备细微辨析能力，而不是让一小部分人类进行硬编码。我认为这是我们一直在践行的方向，并且你会看到我们会继续朝这个方向努力。
Lex Fridman
(00:32:43)
I took extensive notes and I gave them to Gemini and said, “Can you ask a novel question that’s not in these notes?”, and it wrote… Gemini continues to really surprise me, really surprise me. It’s been really beautiful. It’s an incredible model. The question it generated was, “You…”, meaning Sundar, “… told the world Gemini is churning out 480 trillion tokens a month. What’s the most life-changing, five-word sentence hiding in that haystack?”. That’s a Gemini question.
我做了大量笔记，然后把它们交给 Gemini，让它“提出一个这些笔记中没有的问题”。它写出来的内容……Gemini 不断让我感到惊喜，真的很美妙。它是一个令人难以置信的模型。它生成的问题是：“你……”，意思是桑达尔，“……告诉世界 Gemini 每月生成 480 万亿个令牌。在那堆麦秸中，最能改变人生的五个字的句子是什么？”这就是一个典型的 Gemini 提问。
(00:33:17)
I don’t think you can answer that, but it woke me up to all of these tokens are providing little aha moments for people across the globe. So, that’s like learning. Those tokens are people are curious, they ask a question and they find something out, and it truly could be life-changing.
我想你很难回答这个问题，但这让我意识到，这些令牌正在为全球的人们提供一个个“豁然开朗”的瞬间。就像学习一样，人们因为好奇而提问，并从中获得新知，而这些新知确实可能改变人生。
Lex Fridman
(00:33:37)
Oh, it is. I had the same feeling about Search many, many years ago. These tokens per month has grown 50 times in the last 12 months.
哦，确实如此。多年前我对搜索就有同样的感觉。这些令牌的月生成量在过去12个月里增长了50倍。
Lex Fridman
(00:33:49)
Is that accurate, by the way? The 4…
顺便问一句，那个数字准确吗？480万亿……？
Sundar Pichai
(00:33:49)
Yeah, it is. It is. It is accurate. I’m glad it got it right. But that number was 9.7 trillion tokens per month, 12 months ago. It’s gone up to 480. It’s a 50x…
是的，准确无误。我很高兴它准确地提到了那个数字。但12个月前，这一数字是每月9.7万亿令牌。现在已升至480万亿，增长了50倍……
Sundar Pichai
(00:34:00)
… right, it’s gone up to 480, it’s a 50 X increase. So there’s no limit to human curiosity. And I think it’s one of those moments, I don’t think it is there today, but maybe one day there’s a five word phrase which says what the actual universe is or something like that and something very meaningful, but I don’t think we are quite there yet.
……没错，已涨到480万亿，增长了50倍。人的好奇心是无限的。我认为也许有一天会出现一个五个字的短语，能道出宇宙的真谛或类似非常有意义的话语，虽然我觉得现在还没到那一步。
Scaling laws
Lex Fridman
(00:34:25)
Do you think the scaling laws are holding strong on, there’s a lot of ways to describe the scaling laws for AI, but on the pre-training, on post-training fronts, so the flip side of that, do you anticipate AI progress will hit a wall? Is there a wall?
你认为AI的规模定律依然稳固吗？AI的规模定律有很多描述方式，从预训练到后训练都有涉及。相反地，你是否预计AI进展会触及天花板？会有瓶颈吗？
Sundar Pichai
(00:34:42)
It’s a cherished micro kitchen conversation, once in a while I have it, like when Demis is visiting or if Demis, Koray, Jeff, Norm, Sergey, a bunch of our people, we sit and talk about this. Look, we see a lot of headroom ahead, I think. We’ve been able to optimize and improve on all fronts, pre-training, post-training, test time compute, tool use, over time, making these more agentic. So getting these models to be more general world models in that direction.
这是我们偶尔会在“微厨房”中讨论的珍贵话题，比如德米斯来访，或者德米斯、科雷、杰夫、诺姆、谢尔盖以及我们团队的其他成员聚在一起时。我们认为未来还有很大空间。我们已经在各个方面进行了优化和改进——预训练、后训练、推理算力、工具使用等，逐步让模型更具“代理性”，使它们朝更通用的世界模型方向发展。
Sundar Pichai
(00:35:22)
Like Veo 3, the physics understanding is dramatically better than what Veo 1 or something like that was. So you kind of see on all those dimensions, I feel progress is very obvious to see and I feel like there is significant headroom. More importantly, I’m fortunate to work with some of the best researchers on the planet, they think there is more headroom to be had here. And so I think we have an exciting trajectory ahead. It’s tougher to say… Each year I sit and say, okay, we are going to throw 10 X more compute over the course of next year at it and will we see progress? Sitting here today, I feel like the year ahead will have a lot of progress.
就拿 Veo 3 来说，它的物理理解力相比 Veo 1 等早期版本提升显著。所以在所有这些维度上，进展都显而易见，且我认为还存在大幅提升空间。更重要的是，我有幸与世界顶尖的研究者一起工作，他们也认为还有更多空间可挖。所以我觉得我们前方会有一条令人兴奋的发展轨迹。不过要具体说……每年我都会坐下来思考：“好，我们明年要投入10倍的算力，我们能看到多大进展？”但就今天而言，我觉得来年会取得很多进展。
Lex Fridman
(00:36:11)
And do you feel any limitations like the bottlenecks, compute limited, data limited, idea limited, do you feel any of those limitations or is it full steam ahead on all fronts?
你是否感受到任何瓶颈，比如算力受限、数据受限、创意受限？还是说所有方面都在全速推进？
Sundar Pichai
(00:36:24)
I think it’s compute limited in this sense, part of the reason you’ve seen us do Flash, Nano Flash and Pro models, but not an Ultra model, it’s like for each generation we feel like we’ve been able to get the Pro model at, I don’t know, 80, 90% of Ultra’s capability, but Ultra would be a lot more slow and lot more expensive to serve. But what we’ve been able to do is to go to the next generation and make the next generation’s Pro as good as the previous generation’s Ultra, but be able to serve it in a way that it’s fast and you can use it and so on. So I do think scaling laws are working, but it’s tough to get, at any given time, the models we all use the most, this maybe a few months behind the maximum capability we can deliver because that won’t be the fastest, easiest to use, et cetera.
我认为在某种程度上算力是限制因素。你会看到我们有 Flash、Nano Flash 和 Pro 版本，却没有推出 Ultra 版本，因为我们觉得每一代的 Pro 都能达到 Ultra 大约80%到90%的能力，而 Ultra 在推理速度和服务成本上都要逊色很多。但我们的做法是，进入下一代时，让新一代的 Pro 能力媲美上一代的 Ultra，同时保持快速、可用等特性。因此，我确实认为规模定律在起作用，但要在任何时刻同时满足速度、易用性与最大能力，还需要几个月的时间调整。
Lex Fridman
(00:37:26)
Also, that’s in terms of intelligence, it becomes harder and harder to measure ” performance” because you could argue Gemini Flash is much more impactful than Pro just because of the latency, it’s super intelligent already. I mean sometimes latency is maybe more important than intelligence, especially when the intelligence is just a little bit less and Flash not, it’s still incredibly smart model. And so you have to now start measuring impact and then it feels like benchmarks are less and less capable of capturing the intelligence of models, the effectiveness of models, the usefulness, the real world usefulness, of models.
在智能方面也类似，“性能”越来越难衡量，因为你可以说 Gemini Flash 由于延迟极低，比 Pro 更具影响力——它已经超级智能了。有时候延迟比智能更重要，尤其当智能差距很小时，而 Flash 在延迟上占据明显优势，它依然是个非常聪明的模型。因此我们必须开始衡量“影响力”，感觉传统基准测试越来越难捕捉模型的真正智能、有效性以及在现实世界中的有用性。
AGI and ASI
(00:38:07)
Another kitchen question. So lots of folks are talking about timelines for AGI or ASI, artificial super intelligence. So AGI loosely defined is basically human expert level at a lot of the main fields of pursuit for humans. And then ASI is what AGI becomes, presumably quickly, by being able to self-improve. So becoming far superior in intelligence across all these disciplines than humans. When do you think we’ll have AGI? It’s 2030 a possibility?
又一个“厨房对话”式的问题。很多人都在讨论通用人工智能（AGI）或人工超级智能（ASI）的时间表。AGI 大致可以定义为在许多人类主要研究领域达到人类专家水平；而 ASI 则是假定 AGI 能迅速通过自我改进，成为在所有学科上远超人类智能的存在。你认为何时能实现 AGI？2030年有可能吗？
Sundar Pichai
(00:38:41)
There’s one other term we should throw in there. I don’t know who used it first, maybe Karpathy did, AJI. Have you heard AJI, the artificial jagged intelligence? Sometimes feels that way, both their progress and you see what they can do and then you can trivially find they make numerical errors or counting R’s in strawberry or something, which seems to trip up most models or whatever it is. So maybe we should throw that term in there. I feel like we are in the AJI phase where dramatic progress, some things don’t work well, but overall you’re seeing lots of progress.
还有一个术语我们应该提一下，不知道是谁先用的，也许是Karpathy，叫 AJI——“人工锯齿智能”（artificial jagged intelligence）。你听说过吗？有时确实感觉如此：模型进步惊人，你看到它能做什么，但又能轻易发现它会犯数值错误，或者把草莓里 “r” 的数量数错，这些错误似乎难倒了大多数模型。也许我们该用上这个术语。我感觉我们正处在 AJI 阶段——虽然进展巨大，但仍有不少问题，不过整体上还是在快速前进。
(00:39:19)
But if your question is will it happen by 2030? Look, we constantly move the line of what it means to be AGI. There are moments today like sitting in a Waymo in a San Francisco street with all the crowds and the people and work its way through, I see glimpses of it there. The car is sometimes impatient, trying to work its way using Astra like in Gemini Live or asking questions about the world.
但如果你问“2030年前能实现吗？”，我们其实一直在不断重定义 AGI 的边界。就拿现在来说，有时我坐在旧金山街头的 Waymo 车里，看着人流和车流穿梭，我就会看到那种影子。车辆有时会表现得不耐烦，会尝试用类似 Gemini Live 的 Astra 功能去规划路线或询问周围世界的问题。
Speaker 1
(00:39:49)
What’s a skinny building doing in my neighborhood?
“我家附近那座瘦楼在干什么？”
Speaker 2
(00:39:51)
It’s a street light, not a building.
“那是路灯，不是大楼。”
Sundar Pichai
(00:39:54)
You see glimpses, that’s why use the word AJI because then you see stuff which obviously we are far from AGI too, so you have both experiences simultaneously happening to you. I’ll answer your question, but I’ll also throw out this. I almost feel the term doesn’t matter, what I know is by 2030 there’ll be such dramatic progress. We’ll be dealing with the consequences of that progress, both the positive externalities and the negative externalities that come with it in a big way by 2030. So that I strongly feel.
你就会看到这些影子，这也是为什么用 AJI 这个词——因为你会同时体验到进步带来的惊艳和与 AGI 还相距甚远的不足。我会回答你的问题，但我也想说：我几乎觉得这个术语本身并不重要，我确定的是，到2030年，我们会看到如此巨大的进展，并且会大规模地面对这些进步带来的正面和负面外部性。这一点我深信不疑。
(00:40:31)
Whatever, we may be arguing about the term or maybe Gemini can answer what that moment is in time in 2030, but I think the progress will be dramatic. So that I believe in. Will the AI think it has reached AGI by 2030? I would say we will just fall short of that timeline, so I think it’ll take a bit longer. It’s amazing, in the early days of Google DeepMind in 2010, they talked about a 20-year timeframe to achieve AGI, which is kind of fascinating to see, but for me, the whole thing, seeing what Google Brain did in 2012, and when we acquired DeepMind in 2014, right close to where we are sitting, in 2012, Jeff Dean showed the image of when the neural networks could recognize a picture of a cat and identify it. This is the early versions of Brain.
无论如何，我们可以继续争论这个术语，或者让 Gemini 来回答2030年的哪个时刻算作那个“瞬间”，但我相信进步一定是显著的。至于 AI 是否会在2030年自认为已达 AGI，我觉得我们会稍微错过那个节点，还需要更久一些。非常有趣的是，在 DeepMind 初期的2010年，他们曾设想用20年实现 AGI，这很让人着迷。而对我而言，真正震撼我的是2012年 Google Brain 所达到的成就——2014年我们收购 DeepMind 的那个办公区附近，Jeff Dean 展示了神经网络能识别并标注猫的那段视频，那就是 Brain 的早期版本。
(00:41:24)
And so we all talked about couple decades. I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that, but I would stress it doesn’t matter what that definition is because you will have mind-blowing progress on many dimensions. Maybe AI can create videos. We have to figure out as a society, we need some system by which we all agree that this is AI-generated and we have to disclose it in a certain way because how do you distinguish reality otherwise?
所以大家普遍谈论的是几十年的时间框架。我认为2030年可能稍微来不及，我觉得会在那之后不久。不过我想强调的是，术语并不重要，因为你会看到在多维度上的令人瞠目结舌的进步。比如 AI 可以生成视频，我们作为社会需要想清楚：必须建立某种体系，让大家都认可哪些内容是 AI 生成的，并予以标识，否则我们无法区分真实与虚拟。
Lex Fridman
(00:41:58)
Yeah, there’s so many interesting things you said. So first of all, just looking back at this recent, now feels like distant, history with Google Brain, I mean that was before TensorFlow, before TensorFlow was made public, and open-sourced. So the tooling matters too. Combined with GitHub, ability to share code. Then you have the ideas of a potential transformers and the diffusion now and then there might be a new idea that seems simple in retrospect but will change everything, and that could be the post-training, the inference time innovations.
你说了太多有趣的事情。首先，回顾这段看似已经遥远的 Google Brain 历史，那是在 TensorFlow 发布、开源之前。所以工具链也很重要。再加上 GitHub、代码共享的能力。然后出现了 Transformers、Diffusion 等理念，随后或许会有一个看似简单但会改变一切的新思路，那可能就是后训练阶段、推理时的创新。
(00:42:28)
And I think shadcn Tweeted that Google is just one great UI from completely winning the AI race, meaning UI is a huge part of it. How that intelligence, I think the \[inaudible 00:42:45] Project likes to talk about this right now, it’s an LLM, but when is it going to become a system where you’re talking about shipping systems versus shipping a particular model? Yeah, that matters too, how the system manifests itself and how it presents itself to the world. That really, really matters
我看到 shadcn 在推特上说，Google 离彻底赢得 AI 竞赛只差一个优秀的用户界面，意思是 UI 是其中非常重要的一环。我觉得一个项目现在也在讨论这个问题——它是个大语言模型，但什么时候会成为“交付系统”而非“交付模型”？是的，这也很关键：系统如何呈现自己、如何向世界展示自己，真的非常重要。
Sundar Pichai
(00:43:02)
Oh, hugely so. There are simple UI innovations which have changed the world and I absolutely think so. We will see a lot more progress in the next couple of years as I think AI itself on a self-improving track for UI itself. Today, we are constraining the models, the models can’t quite express themselves in terms of the UI to people. But if you think about it, we’ve kind of boxed them in that way, but given these models can code, they should be able to write the best interfaces to express their ideas over time.
哦，非常重要。有一些简单的用户界面创新已经改变了世界，我对此深信不疑。我认为，随着 AI 自身在用户界面优化方面进入自我改进轨道，未来几年我们会看到更多进展。如今我们对模型的界面表达进行了限制，模型无法充分通过界面向人们展示自己。但如果你仔细想想，我们其实是把它们“框”在了那种方式里，但既然这些模型会编程，它们应该能够随着时间推移，编写出最佳的界面来表达它们的创意。
Lex Fridman
(00:43:46)
That is an incredible idea. So the API is already open, so you create a really nice agentic system that continuously improves the way you can be talking to an AI. But a lot of that is the interface. And then of course the incredible multimodal aspect of the interface that Google has been pushing.
这是一个令人难以置信的想法。API 已经开放，所以你可以构建一个真正出色的智能代理系统，不断改进与 AI 对话的方式。但其中很大一部分是界面。还有谷歌一直在推动的那种令人惊叹的多模态界面。
Sundar Pichai
(00:44:08)
These models are natively multimodal. They can easily take content from any format, put it in any format, they can write a good user interface, they probably understand your preferences better over time. And so all this is the evolution ahead. And so that goes back to where we started the conversation, I think there’ll be dramatic evolutions in the years ahead.
这些模型天生就是多模态的。它们可以轻松地从任何格式获取内容，并输出为任何格式，还能编写良好的用户界面，可能随着时间推移更好地理解你的偏好。所有这些都将是未来演进的方向。回到我们最初的对话主题，我认为未来几年会出现戏剧性的演变。
Lex Fridman
(00:44:34)
Maybe one more kitchen question. This even further ridiculous concept of p(doom). So the philosophically minded folks in the AI community, think about the probability that AGI and then ASI might destroy all of human civilization. I would say my p(doom) is about 10%. Do you ever think about this kind of long-term threat of ASI and what would your p(doom) be?
也许再问一个“厨房对话”式的问题。这个更离谱的概念是 p(doom)。AI 社区中那些具有哲学思考的人，会思考 AGI 然后 ASI 可能摧毁整个人类文明的概率。我会说我的 p(doom) 大约是10%。你是否考虑过这种 ASI 的长期威胁？你的 p(doom) 会是多少？
Sundar Pichai
(00:45:03)
Look, I mean for sure. Look, I’ve both been very excited about AI, but I’ve always felt this is a technology you have to actively think about the risks and work very, very hard to harness it in a way that it all works out well. On the p(doom) question, look, it wouldn’t surprise you to say that’s probably another micro kitchen conversation that pops up once in a while. And given how powerful the technology is maybe stepping back, when you’re running a large organization, if you can align the incentives of the organization, you can achieve pretty much anything. If you can get people all marching towards a goal, in a very focused way, in a mission-driven way, you can pretty much achieve anything.
当然会考虑。我要说的是，我对 AI 非常兴奋，但我一直认为，这是一项必须主动考虑风险并付出极大努力来驾驭的技术，才能确保其正向发展。至于 p(doom) 的问题，这也许又是一次偶尔会冒出的“微厨房对话”。考虑到这项技术的强大，如果你能够为一个大组织对齐激励机制，你几乎可以实现任何目标。只要你让团队以非常专注、使命驱动的方式朝某个目标前进，你基本上就能达成一切。
(00:45:50)
But it’s very tough to organize all of humanity that way. But I think if p(doom) is actually high, at some point, all of humanity is aligned in making sure that’s not the case. And so we’ll actually make more progress against it, I think. So the irony is, so there is a self-modulating aspect there. I think if humanity collectively puts their mind to solving a problem, whatever, it is, I think we can get there. So because of that, I think I’m optimistic on the p(doom) scenarios, I think the underlying risk is actually pretty high, but I have a lot of faith in humanity kind of rising up to meet that moment.
但要以这种方式组织整个人类是极其困难的。我认为，如果 p(doom) 真正很高，遏制这一威胁的动力就会将人类团结起来，从而让我们在防范上取得更多进展。具有讽刺意味的是，这其中存在一种自我调节机制。我认为，只要人类集体思考并致力于解决问题，不论问题多大，我们都能迎刃而解。因此，我对 p(doom) 情景持乐观态度，尽管潜在风险确实很高，但我对人类能够挺身而出应对挑战充满信心。
Lex Fridman
(00:46:39)
That’s really, really, well put. I mean, as the threat becomes more concrete and real, humans do really come together and get their shit together. Well, the other thing I think people don’t often talk about is probability of doom without AI. So there’s all these other ways that humans can destroy themselves and it’s very possible, at least I believe so, that AI will help us become smarter, kinder to each other, more efficient. It’ll help more parts of the world flourish where it wouldn’t be less resource constrained, which is often the source of military conflict and tensions and so on. So we also have to load into that, what’s the \[inaudible 00:47:22] without AI? p(doom) with AI, p(doom) without AI, because it’s very possible that AI will be the thing that saves us, saves human civilizations from all the other threats.
你说得真好。随着威胁变得更具体和真实，人类确实会团结起来，做好应对准备。另一个我觉得人们不常谈的是，没有 AI 的世界下“末日”的概率。人类有许多可能自我毁灭的方式，我确实相信，AI 很可能帮助我们变得更聪明、更仁慈、更高效。它将帮助更多资源匮乏地区发展，而资源匮乏往往是军事冲突和紧张局势的源头。所以我们也要把“无 AI 情境下的 p(doom)”纳入考量：有 AI 的 p(doom)、无 AI 的 p(doom)，因为很可能 AI 会成为拯救人类文明、抵御其他威胁的关键。
Sundar Pichai
(00:47:32)
I agree with you. I think it’s insightful. Look, I felt to make progress on some of the toughest problems would be good to have AI, like Pear, helping you, and so that resonates with me for sure. Yeah.
我同意你的看法。我觉得很有见地。听着，我觉得要在一些最棘手的问题上取得进展，让 AI（比如 Pear）来辅助会很有帮助，这点我完全认同。是的。
Lex Fridman
(00:47:48)
Quick pause, bathroom break? \[inaudible 00:47:51].
短暂休息，去趟洗手间？\[00:47:51 处录音不清]。
Sundar Pichai
(00:47:51)
Let’s do that.
好，去吧。
Lex Fridman
(00:47:53)
If NotebookLM was the same, like what I saw today with Beam, if it was compelling in the same kind of way, blew my mind. It was incredible. I didn’t think it’s possible. I didn’t think it’s \[inaudible 00:48:06].
如果 NotebookLM 能像我今天看到的 Beam 一样，以同样震撼的方式呈现，那真是让我大开眼界。太不可思议了。我都不敢相信这是可能的。\[00:48:06 处录音不清]。
Sundar Pichai
(00:48:05)
Can you imagine the US president and the Chinese president being able to do something like Beam with the live Meet translation working well, so they’re both sitting and talking, make progress a bit more.
你能想象如果美国总统和中国国家主席也能用 Beam 进行实时翻译的视频会议吗？他们坐在一起交谈，进展一定会顺畅许多。
Lex Fridman
(00:48:20)
Just for people listening, we took a quick bathroom break and now we’re talking about the demo I did. We’ll probably post it somewhere somehow maybe here. I got a chance to experience Beam and it’s hard to describe in words how real it felt with just, what is it, six cameras. It’s incredible. It’s incredible.
各位听众，我们刚才去了一下洗手间，现在在聊我刚才的演示。可能会以某种方式把录屏放到这里。我有机会亲身体验了 Beam，仅凭，大概是六台摄像头，就能营造出极其真实的感觉，难以用言语形容。太不可思议了。
Sundar Pichai
(00:48:42)
It’s one of the toughest products of, you can’t quite describe it to people. Even when we show it in slides, et cetera, you don’t know what it is. You have to kind of experience it.
这是最难向人们描述的产品之一。即便我们在幻灯片中展示，也难以让人真正理解，你必须亲自体验才能明白。
Lex Fridman
(00:48:54)
On the world leaders front, on politics, geopolitics, there’s something really special again with studying World War II and how much could have been saved if Chamberlain met Stalin in person. And I sometimes also struggle explaining to people, articulating, why I believe meeting in person for world leaders is powerful. It just seems naive to say that, but there is something there in person and with Beam, I felt that same thing, and then I’m unable to explain, all I kept doing is what a child does. You look real. And I mean, I don’t know if that makes meetings more productive or so on, but it certainly makes them more, the same reason you want to show up to work versus remote sometimes, that human connection. I don’t know what that is, it’s hard to put into words. There’s something beautiful about great teams collaborating on a thing that’s not captured by the productivity of that team or by whatever on paper. Some of the most beautiful moments you experience in life is at work. Pursuing a difficult thing together for many months, there’s nothing like it.
在世界领袖层面，在政治、地缘政治方面，再谈二战研究时，我总能感到一种特别的情感——如果张伯伦当年能与斯大林当面会谈，本可以挽救多少生命。我有时也难以向人们清晰阐述，为什么我认为世界领导人面对面会晤如此有力量。说这个似乎显得幼稚，但面对面确实有其独特之处，而用 Beam 也让我感受到了同样的东西，然后我又无法解释清楚，我只能像孩子一样说：“他们看起来都是真的”。我不知道这是否让会议更高效，但肯定会强化人际联系，就像有时大家更愿意去办公室而非远程办公一样。我不知道这究竟是什么，很难用语言表达。伟大的团队为某个目标连续奋斗数月，共同攻坚，这种美好时刻并非团队的产出或纸面指标所能体现。人生中许多最美好的瞬间都发生在工作中，一起追求艰难目标的过程无与伦比。
Sundar Pichai
(00:50:13)
You’re in the trenches. And yeah, you do form bonds that way, for sure.
你就在第一线奋战。是的，这样确实能建立起深厚的纽带。
Lex Fridman
(00:50:17)
And to be able to do that somewhat remotely in that same personal touch, I don’t know, that’s a deeply fulfilling thing. I know a lot of people, I personally hate meetings because a significant percent of meetings when done poorly don’t serve a clear purpose. But that’s a meeting problem, that’s not a communication problem. If you could improve the communication for the meetings that are useful, that’s just incredible. So yeah, I was blown away by the great engineering behind it. And then we get to see what impact that has, that’s really interesting, but just incredible engineering. Really impressive.
而如果能以远程方式实现同样的面对面般体验，那真是非常有意义。我知道很多人——我个人就很讨厌会议，因为相当一部分糟糕的会议根本没有明确目的。但那是会议本身的问题，不是沟通方式的问题。如果你能为那些有价值的会议改善沟通流程，那就太棒了。所以我被这项技术背后的精妙工程深深震撼。接下来我们还要观察它带来的影响，这非常有趣，但就工程本身而言，真是难以置信，令人印象深刻。
Sundar Pichai
(00:50:51)
No, it is. And obviously we’ll work hard over the years to make it more and more accessible. But yeah, even on a personal front outside of work meetings, a grandmother who’s far away from her grandchild and being able to have that kind of an interaction, all that I think will end up being very… Nothing substitutes being in person but it’s not always possible. You could be a soldier deployed trying to talk to your loved one. So I think so that’s what inspires us.
没错。我们显然会在未来几年努力让它越来越易用。但即便在工作会议之外的个人场景——比如远在他乡的祖母能与孙辈进行那种对话互动——我认为这也会非常有价值。面对面固然无可替代，但并非总能实现。你可能是驻外士兵，需要与家人通话。所以我认为，这正是我们的动力所在。
Toughest leadership decisions
Lex Fridman
(00:51:24)
When you and I hung out last year and took a walk, I don’t think we talked about this, but I remember outside of that seeing dozens of articles written by analysts and experts and so on, that Sundar Pichai should step down because the perception was that Google was definitively losing the AI race, has lost its magic touch, in the rapidly evolving technological landscape. And now a year later, it’s crazy. You showed this plot of all the things that were shipped over the past year. It’s incredible. And Gemini Pro is winning across many benchmarks and products as we sit here today. So take me through that experience when there’s all these articles saying you’re the wrong guy to lead Google through this. Google is lost, is done, it’s over, to today where Google is winning again. What were some low points during that time?
去年你我一起出来散步时，我记得我们好像没谈到这个，但我清晰记得，当时有几十篇分析师和专家的文章都在说桑达尔·皮查伊应该下台，因为他们认为在快速变化的技术格局中，谷歌在AI竞赛中已经彻底落后，失去了昔日的魔力。可是一年过去了，现在看着都觉得不可思议。你展示了过去一年发布的所有产品图表，真让人难以置信。坐在这里，Gemini Pro 在许多基准测试和产品上都是赢家。所以请讲讲那段经历吧——当所有人都说你不是带领谷歌度过这一关的合适人选、谷歌完蛋了、没救了，而现在谷歌又重回巅峰。那期间有哪些低谷时刻？
Sundar Pichai
(00:52:27)
Look, lots to unpack. Obviously, the main bet I made as a CEO was to really make sure the company was approaching everything in a AI-first way, really setting ourselves up to develop AGI responsibly, and make sure we are putting out products which embodies that, things that are very, very useful for people. So look, I knew even through moments like that last year, I had a good sense of what we were building internally. So I’d already made many important decisions bringing together teams of the caliber of Brain and DeepMind and setting up Google DeepMind. There were things like we made the decision to invest in TPUs 10 years ago, so we knew we were scaling up and building big models.
这事情要说很长。我作为CEO做的最关键的赌注，就是确保公司在一切工作中都以“AI优先”为导向，真正为负责任地开发AGI做好准备，并推出能够体现这一理念、对人们非常有用的产品。所以即便在去年那些质疑声中，我对我们内部在做什么依旧有清晰判断。我之前就已做出过多项重要决定：将Brain团队与DeepMind团队汇聚、组建Google DeepMind。再比如，十年前就决定投入TPU研发，这让我们知道自己正在扩大规模、构建大型模型。
Sundar Pichai
(00:53:33)
Anytime you’re in a situation like that, a few aspects. I’m good at tuning out noise, separating signal from noise. Do you scuba dive? Have you…?
遇到那种状况，有几个方面要注意。我擅长屏蔽噪声、分辨信号与噪声。你潜过水吗？你……
Lex Fridman
(00:53:47)
No.
不。
Sundar Pichai
(00:53:47)
It’s amazing. I’m not good at it, but I’ve done it a few times. But sometimes you jump in the ocean, it’s so choppy, but you go down one feet under, it’s the calmest thing in the entire universe. So there’s a version of that. Running Google, you may as well be coaching Barcelona or Real Madrid. You have a bad season. So there are aspects to that. But look, I’m good at tuning out the noise. I do watch out for signals. It’s important to separate the signal from the noise. So there are good people sometimes making good points outside, so you want to listen to it, you want to take that feedback in, but internally, you’re making a set of consequential decisions.
Sundar Pichai
这很神奇。我并不擅长，但我尝试过几次。有时候你跳进大海，海面波涛汹涌，可只要潜进一英尺以下，那里就仿佛是宇宙中最平静的地方。这就是其中一种体验。经营谷歌，就像执教巴塞罗那或皇家马德里——你可能会遇到一个糟糕的赛季，这里也有类似之处。但我善于屏蔽噪音，也会留意信号。区分信号与噪音至关重要。外界偶尔也有好人提出不错的观点，你要倾听并吸收反馈，但在内部，你正在做一系列举足轻重的决定。
(00:54:39)
As leaders, you’re making a lot of decisions, many of them are inconsequential it feels like, but over time you learn that most of the decisions you’re making on a day-to-day basis doesn’t matter. You have to make them and you’re making them just to keep things moving. But you have to make a few consequential decisions and we had set up the right teams, right leaders, we had world-class researchers, we were training Gemini.
作为领导者，你要做很多决定，其中许多看似无足轻重，但随着时间推移你会意识到，日常大多数决定其实并不重要。你必须做出这些决定，只是为了让事情继续推进。不过，你也得做出少数关键决策。我们已经组建了合适的团队、合适的领导者，拥有世界级的研究人员，并在训练 Gemini。
(00:55:15)
Internally, there are factors which were, for example, outside people may not have appreciated. I mean TPUs are amazing, but we had to ramp up TPUs too. That took time to scale actually having enough TPUs to get the compute needed. But I could see internally the trajectory we were on and I was so excited internally about the possible, to me this moment felt like one of the biggest opportunities ahead for us as a company that the opportunity space ahead or the next decade, next 20 years, is bigger than what has happened in the past. And I thought we were set up better than most companies in the world to go realize that vision.
在内部，还有一些外界未必了解的因素。TPU 很棒，但我们也需要把 TPU 的规模提升上去。真正扩容到足够的 TPU 以满足计算需求需要时间。不过，我在内部能看到我们的发展轨迹，我对潜在可能感到非常振奋。在我看来，这是公司面前最大的机遇之一；未来十年、二十年的机会空间，要大于过去所发生的一切。我认为，我们比世界上大多数公司都更有条件去实现这一愿景。
Lex Fridman
(00:56:04)
I mean, you had to make some consequential, bold decisions like you mentioned the merger of DeepMind and Brain. Maybe it’s my perspective, just knowing humans, I’m sure there’s a lot of egos involved, it’s very difficult to merge teams, and I’m sure there were some hard decisions to be made. Can you take me through your process of how you think through that? Do you go to pull the trigger and make that decision? Maybe what were some painful points? How do you navigate those turbulent waters?
Lex Fridman
我的意思是，你必须做出一些关键且大胆的决定，比如你提到将 DeepMind 和 Brain 合并。站在我的角度，基于对人性的了解，我确信这其中牵涉到很多自我意识，合并团队非常困难，而且肯定要做出一些艰难的决定。你能否带我了解一下你的思考过程？你是如何下定决心并最终拍板的？其中有哪些痛点？你是如何在这些动荡的水域中航行的？
Sundar Pichai
(00:56:36)
Look, we were fortunate to have two world-class teams, but you’re right, it’s like somebody coming and telling to you, take Stanford and MIT and then put them together and create a great department, easier said than done. But we were fortunate in phenomenal teams, both had their strengths, they were run very differently. Brain was kind of a lot of diverse projects, bottoms up and out of it came a lot of important research breakthroughs. DeepMind at the time had a strong vision of how you want to build AGI, and so they were pursuing their direction. But I think through those moments, luckily tapping into, Jeff had expressed a desire to go back to more of a scientific individual contributor roots. He felt like management was taking up too much of his time. And Demis naturally I think was running DeepMind and was a natural choice there.
你看，我们很幸运拥有两支世界级的团队，但正如你所说，这就像有人对你说，把斯坦福和麻省理工合并，组建一个伟大的系——说起来容易做起来难。不过我们确实很幸运，这两支团队都很出色，各有优势，而且运行方式截然不同。Brain 团队项目多样、从下而上推进，催生了许多重要的研究突破。当时 DeepMind 则有着清晰的 AGI（通用人工智能）构想，因此他们坚持自己的方向。但在那些时刻，幸运的是我们抓住了机会：Jeff 表示想回归更纯粹的科研贡献者角色，他觉得管理工作占用了太多时间。而 Demis 天生就适合管理 DeepMind，因此他成为了自然人选。
(00:57:41)
But I think, you are right, it took us a while to bring the teams together, credit to Demis, Jeff, Koray, all the great people there. They worked super hard to combine the best of both worlds when you set up that team. A few sleepless nights here and there, as we put that thing together. We were patient in how we did it so that it works well for the long term and some of that in that moment. I think, yes, with things moving fast, I think you definitely felt the pressure, but I think we pulled off that transition well, and I think they’re obviously doing incredible work and there’s a lot more incredible things ahead coming from them.
我认为你说得没错，把这两支团队融合在一起确实花了一段时间，这里要感谢 Demis、Jeff、Koray 以及所有优秀的团队成员。他们非常努力，才让这支新团队既保留了两边的优势，又协同高效。为了组建这个团队，我们也有几晚彻夜未眠。我们在推进过程中非常耐心，力求为长期发展打下坚实基础。虽然进展迅速，你们肯定能感受到压力，但我认为我们成功完成了这次过渡；他们现在做的工作非常出色，未来还会带来更多令人惊叹的成果。
Lex Fridman
(00:58:26)
Like we talked about, you have a very calm, even-tempered, respectful demeanor, during that time, whether it’s the merger or just dealing with the noise, were there times where frustration boiled over? Did you have to go a bit more intense on everybody than you usually would?
就像我们之前谈到的那样，你的举止一贯冷静、温和且尊重他人。无论是合并团队，还是应对外界噪音，是否有过某些时刻你的挫败感爆发？你是否曾不得不像平时更严厉一些，给大家更大压力？
Sundar Pichai
(00:58:48)
Probably. You’re right. I think in the sense that there was a moment where we were all driving hard, but when you’re in the trenches working with passion, you’re going to have days, you disagree, you argue. But all that, I mean just part of the course of working intensely. And at the end of the day, all of us are doing what we are doing because the impact it can have, we are motivated by it.
也许吧，你说得对。有那么几次我们确实拼得很紧，当你把自己置于前线，全身心投入工作时，总会有意见不合、争论激烈的日子。但这些都是高强度工作的一部分。归根结底，我们做这一切，都是因为它能产生巨大影响，这激励着我们不断前行。
(00:59:21)
For many of us, this has been a long-term journey, and so it’s been super exciting. The positive moments far outweigh the kind of stressful moments. Just early this year, I had a chance to celebrate back-to-back over two days Nobel Prize for Geoff Hinton and the next day a Nobel Prize for Demis and John Jumper. You worked with people like that, all that is super inspiring.
对于我们许多人来说，这是一场长期征程，因此过程非常激动人心。积极的时刻远远超过那些压力时刻。就在今年初，我有幸连续两天庆祝诺贝尔奖：第一天是 Geoff Hinton，第二天是 Demis 和 John Jumper。能和这样的人共事，实在令人备受鼓舞。
Lex Fridman
(00:59:48)
Is there something like with you where you had to put your foot down maybe with less versus more or, I’m the CEO and we’re doing this?
有没有哪种场合，你必须更强硬些，比如在“多做”与“少做”之间做抉择，或者表明“我是 CEO，我们就这么做”？
Sundar Pichai
(01:00:01)
To my earlier point about consequential decisions you make, there are decisions you make, people can disagree pretty vehemently, but at some point you make a clear decision and you just ask people to commit. You can disagree, but it’s time to disagree and commit so that we can get moving. And whether it’s putting the foot down, it’s a natural part of what all of us have to do. And I think you can do that calmly and be very firm in the direction you are making the decision, and I think if you’re clear actually people over time respect that, if you can make decisions with clarity.
回到我之前关于“关键决策”的观点，有些决策会引发激烈分歧，但到了某个阶段，你要做出明确决定，并要求团队全力支持。大家可以先各抒己见，但到“分歧与承诺”的时刻，就要告一段落，然后一起行动。无论是要求大家加速，还是别无选择，这是我们都要做的事。我认为，只要你头脑冷静、坚定果断地阐明决策方向，时间久了，人们也会尊重这种清晰果断的决策方式。
(01:00:43)
I find it very effective in meetings where you’re making such decisions to hear everyone out. I think it’s important, when you can, to hear everyone out. Sometimes what you’re hearing actually influences how you think about, and you’re wrestling with it and making a decision. Sometimes you have a clear conviction and you state, so look, this is how I feel and this is my conviction, and you kind of place the bet and you move on.
在这种决策会议上，我发现让每个人都先把想法说出来非常有效。有时候，听到的观点会影响你的思考，你会在掂量后做出决定。但有时你已经有清晰的信念，就可以直接说：“这是我的看法和信念”，下个赌注，然后继续前进。
Lex Fridman
(01:01:13)
Are there big decisions like that? I kind of intuitively assume the merger was the big one?
是否还有类似的重要决策？我本能地认为合并是最重大的一个？
Sundar Pichai
(01:01:19)
I think that was a very important decision for the company to meet the moment. I think we had to make sure we were doing that and doing that well. I think that was a consequential decision. There were many other things. We set up a AI infrastructure team to really go meet the moment to scale up the compute we needed to and really brought teams from disparate parts of the company, created it to move forward.
我认为那是公司为了抓住时机所做的一项非常重要的决策。我觉得我们必须确保不仅要做这件事，还要把它做好。我认为那是一个具有深远影响的决定。当然还有很多其他举措。我们组建了一个 AI 基础设施团队，真正投入到应对当前挑战的工作中，以扩展我们所需的计算能力，并且调集公司各个不同部门的团队，将其整合起来向前推进。
(01:01:51)
Getting people to work together physically, both in London with DeepMind at what we call Gradient Canopy, which is where the Mountain View Google DeepMind teams are. But one of my favorite moments is I routinely walk multiple times per week to the Gradient Canopy building where our top researchers are working on the models, Sergey is often there amongst them, just looking at getting an update on the model, seeing the loss curves, so all that. I think that cultural part of getting the teams together back with that energy, I think ended up playing a big role too.
我们还要让团队成员在物理空间中紧密协作——在伦敦的 Gradient Canopy（也是山景城谷歌 DeepMind 团队的工作地点）就是一个例子。但我最喜欢的时刻之一是，每周我都会多次步行到 Gradient Canopy 大楼，那里我们的顶尖研究人员正在研究模型，Sergey 经常也在其中，只是随便看看模型的最新进展、查看损失曲线等等。我认为，将团队汇聚在一起并注入那份激情，这种文化因素最终也发挥了重要作用。
AI mode vs Google Search
Lex Fridman
(01:02:32)
What about the decision to recently add AI mode? So Google Search is, as they say, the front page of the internet, it’s like a legendary minimalist thing with 10 blue links. When people think internet, they think that page and now you’re starting to mess with that. So the AI mode, which is a separate tab, and then integrating AI in the results, I’m sure there were some battles in meetings on that one.
最近新增 AI 模式的决定怎么样？大家都说谷歌搜索是互联网的“首页”，它就像一张传奇的极简主义名片，上面只有十条蓝色链接。人们一想到互联网，就会想到那个页面，而现在你们开始对它进行改动。AI 模式是一个独立的标签页，然后还在搜索结果中集成了 AI，我敢肯定在会议上就此展开了不少争论。
Sundar Pichai
(01:03:02)
Look, in some ways when mobile came, people wanted answers to more questions, so we are kind of constantly evolving it, but you’re right, this moment, that evolution because the underlying technology is becoming much more capable. You can have AI give a lot of context, but one of our important design goals though, is when you come to Google Search, you are going to get a lot of context, but you’re going to go and find a lot of things out on the web. So that will be true in AI mode, in AI overviews, and so on.
你看，在某种程度上，当移动端出现时，人们想要更多问题的答案，所以我们一直在不断演进搜索体验。但你说得没错，现在之所以出现这种演进，是因为底层技术已经大幅提升。AI 能够提供丰富的背景信息，但我们的一个重要设计目标是，当你来到谷歌搜索时，除了背景信息，你依然会去网络上查找大量内容。所以在 AI 模式、AI 概览等场景下也同样如此。
(01:03:39)
Pertaining to our earlier conversation, we’re still giving you access to links, but think of the AI as a layer, which is giving you context, summary, maybe in AI mode, you can have a dialogue with it back and forth on your journey, but through it all, you’re kind of learning what’s out there in the world. So those core principles don’t change. But I think AI mode allows us to push the… We have our best models there, models that are using search as a deep tool, really for every query you’re asking, kind of fanning out doing multiple searches, kind of assembling that knowledge in a way so that you can go and consume what you want to, and that’s how we think about it.
回到我们之前的讨论，我们依然让你可以访问链接，但可以把 AI 看作一层“抉择辅助”，它提供背景信息和摘要，也许在 AI 模式下，你可以与它来回对话，但在整个过程中，你是在了解外界的信息。这些核心原则并未改变。但我认为 AI 模式让我们能更进一步……我们在那里部署了最强的模型，这些模型将搜索视为深度工具，针对每个查询都会多路检索并汇总相关知识，以便你获取所需信息，这就是我们的思路。
Lex Fridman
(01:04:25)
I got a chance to listen to a bunch of Elizabeth, Liz Reid, describe, there’s two things stood out to me that you mentioned. One thing is what you were talking about is the query fan-out, which I didn’t even think about before, is the powerful aspect of integrating a bunch of stuff on the web for you in one place, so that, yes, it provides that context so that you can decide which page to then go onto. The other really, really big thing speaks to the earlier in terms of productivity multiply that we’re talking about, that she mentioned, was language.
我有机会听了 Elizabeth（Liz Reid）的一段介绍，有两点你提到的内容让我印象深刻。第一点是你刚才说的查询“扇出”——我以前根本没想到这一点，它强大地将网络上的各种信息汇集到一个界面里，既提供了背景，也可以帮助你决定接下来要点击哪个页面。第二点非常重要，它呼应了我们之前谈到的“生产力倍增”概念——她提到的就是语言。
(01:05:01)
So one of the things you don’t quite understand is through AI mode for non-English speakers, you make, let’s say, English language websites accessible in the reasoning process as you’ve tried to figure out what you’re looking for. Of course once you show up to a page, you can use a basic translate, but that process of figuring it out, if you empathize with a large part of the world that doesn’t speak English, their web is much smaller in that original language. And so it, again, unlocks that huge cognitive capacity there. You take for granted here with all the bloggers and the journalists writing about AI mode, you forget that this now unlocks because Gemini is really good at translation.
所以你可能没有完全意识到的一点是，对于非英语使用者，通过 AI 模式，你可以在“推理”阶段访问英语网站，这样在找答案时就能直接用上海量英文资源。当然，一旦你打开页面，还可以使用基础翻译，但在此前的“探索”过程中，如果你能设身处地地为不懂英语的广大用户考虑，就会发现他们能访问的网络内容在本国语言中要少得多。因此 AI 模式再次释放了巨大的认知潜力。你们这些博主和记者在写 AI 模式的时候往往会忽略这一点，而 Gemini 在翻译方面表现非常出色。
Sundar Pichai
(01:05:54)
Oh it is. I mean the multimodality, the translation, it’s ability to reason, we’re dramatically improving tool use, and putting that power in the flow of Search, look, I’m super excited with AI overviews. We’ve seen the product has gotten much better, we measured using all kinds of user metrics. It’s obviously driven strong growth of the product, and we’ve been testing AI mode. It’s now in the hands of millions of people and the early metrics are very encouraging. So look, I’m excited about this next chapter of Search.
的确如此。我的意思是，多模态、翻译能力、推理能力，我们正在显著提升工具的实用性，并将这种能力融入搜索流程。说实话，我对 AI 概览功能非常兴奋。我们看到产品有了显著改进，并通过各种用户指标进行了衡量。这显然带动了产品的强劲增长，而且我们也在测试 AI 模式，目前已交付给数百万用户，早期指标非常鼓舞人心。所以说，我对搜索的下一个篇章充满期待。
Lex Fridman
(01:06:36)
For people who are not thinking through or aware of this, so there’s the 10 blue links with the AI overview on top, that provides a nice summarization, you can expand it.
对于那些尚未深入思考或不了解这一点的人来说，搜索页面仍然是十条蓝色链接，只不过顶部增加了 AI 概览，它提供了简洁的摘要，你还可以展开查看更详细的内容。
Sundar Pichai
(01:06:45)
And you have sources and links now embedded.
现在你还能在其中看到来源和链接。
Lex Fridman
(01:06:49)
Yeah, I believe, at least Liz said so, I actually didn’t notice it, but there’s ads in the AI overview also. I don’t think there’s ads in AI mode. When ads in AI mode, Sundar? When do you think…? Okay, we should say that in the nineties, I remember the animated GIFs, banner GIFs, that take you to some shady websites that have nothing to do with anything. AdSense revolutionized advertisement. It’s one of the greatest inventions in recent history because it allows us, for free, to have access to all these kinds of services. So ads fuel a lot of really powerful services. And at its best it’s showing you relevant ads, but also very importantly in a way that’s not super annoying, in a classy way. So when do you think it’s possible to add ads into AI mode and what does that look like from a classy, non-annoying perspective?
是的，我相信至少 Liz 是这么说的，我自己倒是没注意到，但 AI 概览里确实有广告。我不认为 AI 模式里有广告。Sundar，AI 模式里什么时候会有广告？您怎么看？好，我们得说，在九十年代，我记得那些动画 GIF 横幅广告，会把你带到一些与之毫不相干的可疑网站。AdSense 革新了广告，这是近代最伟大的发明之一，因为它让我们能够免费使用各种服务。所以广告成就了许多强大的服务。最好的广告既能展示相关内容，又以不令人厌烦、颇具品味的方式呈现。那么您认为何时可以在 AI 模式中加入广告？从优雅、不惹人厌烦的角度来看，这会是什么样子？
Sundar Pichai
(01:07:52)
Two things. Early part of AI mode, we’ll obviously focus more on the organic experience to make sure we are getting it right. I think the fundamental value of ads are-
有两点要说。AI 模式的初期阶段，我们会更多关注原生体验，以确保把它做好。我认为广告的根本价值是——
Sundar Pichai
(01:08:00)
I think the fundamental value of ads are it enables access to deploy the services to billions of people. Second is ads are the reason we’ve always taken ads seriously is we view ads as commercial information, but it’s still information. So we bring the same quality metrics to it. I think with AI mode, to our earlier conversation about… I think AI itself will help us, over time, figure out the best way to do it. I think given we are giving context around everything, I think it’ll give us more opportunities to also explain, “Okay, here’s some commercial information.” Like today as a podcaster, you do it at certain spots, and you probably figure out what’s best in your podcast. I think so, there are aspects of that, but I think the underlying need of people value commercial information, businesses are trying to connect to users.
我认为广告的根本价值在于，它使我们能够向数十亿用户提供服务。其次，我们一直重视广告，因为我们将其视为商业信息，但它仍然是一种信息。因此我们对它也采用同样的质量标准。我认为关于 AI 模式，回到我们之前的讨论……我觉得 AI 本身会帮助我们，随着时间推移，找出最佳实践。鉴于我们为所有内容提供背景信息，我认为这也会带来更多机会，让我们能够解释“这是一些商业信息”。就像今天作为播客，你会在特定时间段插入广告，并摸索出最适合你播客的方式。所以，这其中有诸多方面，但我相信人们对商业信息的需求依然存在，企业也在努力与用户建立联系。
对广告业务会受到什么样的影响还没有概念，或者只能先尽力维护AI领域的优势。
Sundar Pichai
(01:08:58)
All that doesn’t change in an AI moment, but look, we will rethink it. You’ve seen us in YouTube now do a mixture of subscription and ads. Like, obviously, we are now introducing subscription offerings across everything. So as part of that, the optimization point will end up being a different place as well.
在 AI 时代，这些都不会改变，但我们会重新思考这一切。你已经看到我们在 YouTube 上采用了订阅和广告混合的模式。显然，我们现在在所有产品中都在推出订阅服务。因此，作为这一策略的一部分，优化的重点也会随之转移。
Lex Fridman
(01:09:23)
Do you see a trajectory in the possible future where AI mode completely replaces the 10 blue links plus AI overview?
您是否认为在未来的某个阶段，AI 模式会完全取代那十条蓝色链接加 AI 概览的形式？
Sundar Pichai
(01:09:32)
Our current plan is AI mode is going to be there as a separate tab for people who really want to experience that, but it’s not yet at the level there, our main search pages. But as features work will keep migrating it to the main page, and so you can view it as a continuum. AI mode will offer you the bleeding edge experience, but things that work will keep overflowing to AI overviews and the main experience.
我们目前的计划是将 AI 模式作为一个独立标签页，供真正想体验的人使用，但它尚未取代我们的主搜索页面。随着功能的完善，我们会逐步将其迁移到主页面，因此你可以把它看作一个连续体。AI 模式将为你提供最前沿的体验，但那些行之有效的功能会不断溢出到 AI 概览和主体验中。
Lex Fridman
(01:10:02)
And the idea that AI mode will still take you to the web to human created web?
AI 模式依然会引导你回到由人类创作的网页，这个想法怎么样？
Sundar Pichai
(01:10:06)
Yes, that’s going to be a core design principle for us.
是的，这将成为我们的核心设计原则。
Lex Fridman
(01:10:08)
So really, if users decide, right? They drive this.
所以，最终真的是由用户决定，对吧？由他们来推动这一切。
Sundar Pichai
(01:10:11)
Yeah.
嗯。
Lex Fridman
(01:10:13)
It’s just exciting. A little bit scary that it might change the internet because Google has been dominating with a very specific look and idea of what it means to have the internet. As you move to AI mode, I mean, it’s just a different experience. I think Liz was talking about it. I think you’ve mentioned that you ask more questions. You ask longer questions.
这真的很令人兴奋，也有点让人害怕，因为它可能会改变整个互联网——毕竟谷歌长期以来主导着人们对互联网的特定视觉和概念定义。而现在随着转向 AI 模式，这是一种完全不同的体验。我记得 Liz 曾谈到过这个话题，我也记得你提到过，人们会问更多的问题，问题也更长。
Sundar Pichai
(01:10:41)
Dramatically different types of questions.
提出的问题类型发生了根本性变化。
Lex Fridman
(01:10:43)
Yeah, it actually fuels curiosity. I think, for me, I’ve been asking just a much larger number of questions of this black box machine, let’s say, whatever it is, and with the AI overview, it’s interesting because I still value the human… I still ultimately want to end up on the human created web, but like you said, the context really helps.
是的，它确实激发了好奇心。对我来说，我现在会向这个“黑盒子机器”（姑且这么称呼吧）提出更多问题。而在使用 AI 概览的过程中，有趣的是，我依然很重视人类创作的内容……我最终仍然想回到人类创作的网页上，但就像你说的，那些背景信息真的很有帮助。
Sundar Pichai
(01:11:09)
It helps us deliver higher-quality referrals, right? Where people, they have much higher likelihood of finding what they’re looking for. They’re exploring. They’re curious. Their intent is getting satisfied more. So that’s what all our metrics show.
它确实帮助我们提供更高质量的推荐，对吧？用户更有可能找到他们真正想要的内容。他们在探索，在求知，他们的需求能被更充分地满足。我们的所有指标都显示出这一点。
Lex Fridman
(01:11:25)
It makes the humans that create the web nervous. The journalists are getting nervous. They’ve already been nervous. Like we mentioned, CNN is nervous because the podcasts… It makes people nervous.
这让创造网络内容的人感到紧张。记者们开始焦虑——其实他们早就焦虑了。就像我们提到的，CNN 也感到不安，因为播客……这确实会让很多人感到担忧。
Sundar Pichai
(01:11:37)
Look, I think news and journalism will play an important role in the future. We are pretty committed to it, right? So I think making sure that ecosystem, in fact, I think we’ll be able to differentiate ourselves as a company over time because of our commitment there. So it’s something, I think, I definitely value a lot, and as we are designing, we’ll continue prioritizing approaches.
听着，我认为新闻和新闻业在未来仍将发挥重要作用。我们对此非常坚定，对吧？我认为，维护这个生态系统非常关键，实际上我们未来也能借助这一承诺来彰显公司的差异化。因此，这对我而言非常重要，而我们在设计产品时也会继续将其作为优先事项。
Lex Fridman
(01:12:05)
I’m sure for the people who want, they can have a fine-tuned AI model that’s clickbait hit pieces that will replace current journalism. That’s a shot of journalism. Forgive me. But I find that if you’re looking for really strong criticism of things, that Gemini is very good at providing that.
我敢肯定，有些人会想要一个专门调教出来、专门制造“标题党爆文”的 AI 模型，来替代现有新闻业。这算是对新闻界的一点讽刺，见谅。不过我发现，如果你想寻找真正尖锐、有力的批评，Gemini 在这方面确实做得很好。
Sundar Pichai
(01:12:23)
Oh, absolutely. I.
哦，完全同意。我——
Lex Fridman
(01:12:24)
It’s better than anything they… For now, I mean. People are concerned that there would be bias that’s introduced that as the AI systems become more and more powerful, there’s incentive from sponsors to roll in and try to control the output of the AI models. But for now, the objective criticism that’s provided is way better than journalism.
它比现有新闻内容都更出色——至少目前是这样。当然人们也担心，随着 AI 系统变得越来越强大，会有赞助商介入，试图控制模型输出，从而引入偏见。但就目前而言，AI 提供的客观批评，远胜于传统新闻。
(01:12:46)
Of course, the argument is the journalists are still valuable, but then, I don’t know, the crowdsourced journalism that we get on the open internet is also very, very powerful.
当然，有人会说记者仍然很有价值，但我认为，来自开放互联网的“众包式新闻”其实也非常强大。
Sundar Pichai
(01:12:56)
I feel like they’re all super important things. I think it’s good that you get a lot of crowdsourced information coming in, but I feel like there is real value for high-quality journalism, right? I think these are all complimentary, I think. Like, I view it as I find myself constantly seeking out, also, like, try to find objective reporting on things too. Sometimes you get more context from the crowd-funded sources you read online, but I think both end up playing a super important role.
我认为这些都是非常重要的事情。我觉得来自大众的众包信息非常有价值，但高质量的新闻报道同样不可或缺，对吧？我认为这两者是互补的。我自己也经常会主动去寻找一些客观的新闻报道。有时候，在线众筹内容会给你更多背景信息，但我认为两者最终都扮演着非常重要的角色。
Lex Fridman
(01:13:32)
So you’ve spoken a little about this. Dennis talked about this, it’s sort of the slice of the web that will increasingly become about providing information for agents. So we can think about as two layers of the web. One is for humans, one is for agents. Do you see the AI agents? Do you see the one that’s for AI agents growing over time? Do you there still being long-term 5, 10 years value for the human created for the purpose of human consumption web, or will it all be agents in the end?
你其实已经稍微谈到这个了，Dennis 也说过类似的观点——网络的一部分会越来越多地变成为 AI 智能体提供信息的专属层。所以我们可以将网络理解为两层结构：一层面向人类，一层面向智能体。你是否预见到面向 AI 智能体的那一层会随着时间增长？你认为那种专为人类消费而创作的网页内容，在未来 5 年、10 年里还会有长期价值吗？还是说最终一切都将为智能体服务？
Sundar Pichai
(01:14:09)
Today, not everyone does, but you go to a big retail store, you love walking the aisle, you love shopping or grocery store, picking out food, et cetera, but you’re also online shopping, and they’re delivering, right? So both are complementary, and that’s true for restaurants, et cetera. So I do feel like, over time, websites will also get better for humans. They will be better design. AI might actually design them better for humans.
现在不是每个人都这么做，但你去一家大型零售店，你会喜欢逛过道，喜欢购物、去杂货店挑选食物等等，但你同样也会进行网购，并且商品会送上门，对吧？这两者是互补的，这在餐厅等场景中同样适用。所以我确实觉得，未来网页也会为人类变得更好，它们的设计将更优。而 AI 实际上可能会为人类设计得更好。
(01:14:41)
So I expect the web to get a lot richer, and more interesting, and better to use. At the same time, I think there’ll be an agentic web, which is also making a lot of progress, and you have to solve the business value and the incentives to make that work well, right? For people to participate in it.
所以我预期网络将变得更加丰富、有趣、易于使用。与此同时，我认为也会有一层“智能体网络”在快速发展，而要让它运转良好，就必须解决商业价值和激励机制的问题，对吧？这样人们才愿意参与其中。
(01:15:05)
But I think both will coexist, and obviously, the agents may not need the same… Not may not. They won’t need the same design and the UI paradigms which humans need to interact with. But I think both will be there.
但我认为这两者会共存，显然，AI 智能体并不需要——其实是明确不需要——与人类相同的设计和用户界面模式来进行交互。但我相信，它们都会存在。
Google Chrome
Lex Fridman
(01:15:23)
I have to ask you about Chrome. I have to say, for me personally, Google Chrome is probably, I don’t know, I’d like to see where I would rank it, but in this temptation, and this is not a recency bias, although it might be a little bit, but I think it’s up there, top three, maybe the number one piece of software for me of all time. It’s incredible. It’s really incredible.
我得问问你关于 Chrome 的事。说实话，对我个人而言，Google Chrome 可能是……我不知道具体会排在哪，但说实话，我可能会把它列为前三，甚至是我有史以来最喜欢的软件之一。这不是因为最近才用的“近因效应”，即使有一点点，但它真的令人惊叹，真的是无与伦比的。
(01:15:46)
The browser is our window to the web, and Chrome really continues for many years. But even initially, to push the innovation on that front when it was stale, and it continues to challenge. It continues to make it more performant, so efficient, and just innovate constantly, and the Chromium aspect of it.
浏览器是我们通往网络的窗口，而 Chrome 多年来一直在这方面不断进化。即便在早期，当浏览器市场已陷入停滞，它仍然推动了前沿创新，并持续挑战自我，不断提升性能和效率，同时持续创新，Chromium 开源项目也是一大亮点。
(01:16:07)
Anyway, you were one of the pioneers of Chrome pushing for it when it was an insane idea, probably one of the ideas that was criticized, and doubted, and so on. So can you tell me the story of what it took to push for Chrome? What was your vision?
总之，当 Chrome 这个想法还显得“疯狂”时，你是最初推动它的先驱之一。那时候这个想法可能受到不少质疑和批评。你能分享一下当时是如何推进 Chrome 的？你的愿景是什么？
Sundar Pichai
(01:16:29)
Look, it was such a dynamic time around 2004, 2005 with AJAX, the web suddenly becoming dynamic. In a matter of few months, Flickr, Gmail, Google Maps, all kind of came into existence, right? Like, the fact that you have an interactive dynamic web. The web was evolving from simple text pages, simple HTML to rich dynamic applications, but at the same time, you could see the browser was never meant for that world, right? Like, JavaScript execution was super slow.
你看，大约在 2004、2005 年，正值 AJAX 出现，网络突然变得动态了。在短短几个月内，Flickr、Gmail、Google Maps 等等都相继诞生了，对吧？也就是说，我们拥有了交互式、动态的 Web。网络正在从简单的文本页面、基础 HTML 向丰富的动态应用演变，但与此同时，你也能看到，当时的浏览器根本不是为这个世界设计的。比如 JavaScript 的执行速度非常慢。
(01:17:12)
The browser was far away from being an operating system for that rich modern web which was coming into place. So that’s the opportunity we saw. It’s an amazing early team. I still remember the day we got a shell on WebKit running and how fast it was. We had the clear vision for building a browser. We wanted to bring Core OS principles into the browser, right?
浏览器距离成为支撑这种现代丰富网络的“操作系统”还差得很远。而这正是我们看到的机会。早期的团队非常棒。我至今还记得我们在 WebKit 上跑出一个壳原型的那一天，它的速度有多快。我们对构建一款新浏览器有非常清晰的愿景，我们希望将核心操作系统的原则引入浏览器，对吧？
(01:17:44)
So we built a secure browser, sandbox. Each tab was its own. These things are common now, but at the time, it was pretty unique. We found an amazing team in Aarhus, Denmark with a leader who built the JavaScript VM, which at the time, was 25 times faster than any other JavaScript VM out there. By the way, you are right. We open-sourced it all and put it in Chromium too, but we really thought the web could work much better, much faster, and you could be much safer browsing the web, and the name Chrome came because literally felt people were… Or the Chrome of the browser was getting clunkier.
所以我们构建了一个安全的浏览器，引入了沙箱机制，每个标签页都是独立运行的。现在这些都很常见了，但在当时，这是非常新颖的。我们还在丹麦奥胡斯找到一个非常棒的团队，其中一位负责人开发了一个 JavaScript 虚拟机，当时它的运行速度比市面上任何 JavaScript VM 都快 25 倍。顺便说一下，你说得没错，我们把整个项目开源，发布在 Chromium 上。但我们真正相信的是：Web 可以变得更好、更快，浏览体验也可以更加安全。而“Chrome”这个名字的来源，是因为我们觉得浏览器界面（Chrome）本身越来越笨重了。
(01:18:32)
We wanted to minimize it. So that was the origins of the project. Definitely, obviously, highly-biased person here talking about Chrome, but it’s the most fun I’ve had building a product from the ground up, and it was an extraordinary team. My co-founders on the project were terrific, so definite fond memories.
我们当时的目标就是尽可能减少界面的“累赘”。这就是这个项目的起点。当然，我自己说 Chrome 肯定是有偏爱的，但它确实是我从零打造产品过程中最享受的一次经历。那是一支了不起的团队，我的联合创始人们也都非常优秀，真的是一段非常美好的回忆。
Lex Fridman
(01:18:56)
So for people who don’t know, Sundar, it’s probably fair to say, you’re the reason we have Chrome. Yes, I know there’s a lot of incredible engineers, but pushing for it inside a company that probably was opposing it because it’s a crazy idea, because as everybody probably knows, it’s incredibly difficult to build a browser.
对于那些不了解的人来说，Sundar，可以说有了 Chrome 很大程度是因为你。是的，我知道背后有很多了不起的工程师，但能在一家可能一开始还反对这个疯狂想法的公司中推动它——因为众所周知，构建一个浏览器是极其困难的事情——你是其中的关键推手。
Sundar Pichai
(01:19:13)
Yeah, look, Eric was the CEO at the time. I think it was less that he was supposed to it. He kind of first-hand knew what a crazy thing it is to go build a browser, and so he definitely was like, “This is…” There was a crazy aspect to actually wanting to go build a browser, but he was very supportive. Everyone… The founders were.
是的，那时 Eric 是 CEO。我觉得他并不是反对这个想法，而是他非常清楚，要构建一个浏览器是多么疯狂的一件事，所以他确实当时的反应是“这个想法太疯了”。但他也非常支持我们。公司创始人们也是如此。
(01:19:36)
I think once we started building something, and we could use it. And see how much better, from then on, you’re really tinkering with the product and making it better. It came to life pretty fast.
我觉得一旦我们开始真正动手构建，并且能够亲自使用它、体验到它有多好，从那一刻起就完全进入了“打磨产品”的状态，不断改进和优化。整个过程很快就有了生命力。
Lex Fridman
(01:19:48)
What wisdom do you draw from that? From pushing through on a crazy idea in the early days that ends up being revolutionary, for future crazy ideas like it?
从这种经历中，你总结出了什么智慧？从最初坚持一个疯狂想法，最终它却变成了革命性成果——这对未来类似的“疯狂想法”，你有什么经验可以借鉴？
Sundar Pichai
(01:20:00)
I mean, this is something Larry and Sergey have articulated clearly. I really internalized this early on, which is their whole feeling around working on moonshots as a way. When you work on something very ambitious, first of all, it attracts the best people, right? So that’s an advantage you get. Number two, because it’s so ambitious, you don’t have others working on something crazy. So you pretty much have the path to yourselves, right? It’s like Waymo and self-driving. Number three, even if you end up quite not accomplishing what you set out to do and you end up doing 60, 80% of it, it’ll end up being a terrific success. So that’s the advice I would give people, right? I think it’s just aiming for big ideas, has all these advantages, and it’s risky, but it also has all these advantages which people I don’t think fully internalize.
这是 Larry 和 Sergey 早期就讲得很清楚的一点，而我当时也深受启发。他们一直倡导“登月计划”的方式——去做非常有野心的事。首先，它会吸引最优秀的人才，这是巨大的优势。其次，正因为这目标够疯狂，往往别人不会在这条路上与你竞争，所以你可以拥有整条赛道——就像 Waymo 和自动驾驶一样。第三，即使你最终没能百分百达成目标，只实现了其中的六成、八成，最终也会成为巨大的成功。所以我给大家的建议是：瞄准宏大的想法。这的确有风险，但它带来的好处远超人们想象。
Lex Fridman
(01:20:57)
I mean, you mentioned one of the craziest biggest moonshots, which is Waymo. It’s when I first saw, over a decade ago, a Waymo vehicle, a Google self-driving car vehicle. For me, it was an aha moment for robotics. It made me fall in love with robotics even more than before. It gave me a glimpse into the future. So it’s incredible. I’m truly grateful for that project, for what it symbolizes, but it’s also a crazy moonshot.
你刚才提到的 Waymo，无疑是最疯狂、最伟大的“登月计划”之一。十多年前我第一次看到 Waymo 的车——谷歌的自动驾驶汽车——对我来说，那是机器人技术的“顿悟时刻”。它让我比以往更爱上机器人技术，也让我窥见了未来。这太不可思议了。我真心感激这个项目及其象征的意义，虽然它确实是一个疯狂的计划。
(01:21:28)
For a long time, Waymo’s been, like you mentioned with scuba diving, just not listening to anybody, just calmly improving the system better, and better, more testing, just expanding the operational domain more and more. First of all, congrats on the 10 million paid Robotaxi rides. What lessons do you take from Waymo about, like, the perseverance, the persistence on that project?
很长一段时间里，Waymo 就像你之前提到潜水那样——不理会外界噪音，默默改进系统，一次又一次测试，不断拓展其运营能力范围。首先，恭喜你们完成了 1000 万次付费自动驾驶出租车服务。那么，从 Waymo 这个项目中，你学到的关于“毅力”和“坚持”的最大教训是什么？
Sundar Pichai
(01:21:57)
Really proud of the progress we have had with Waymo. One of the things I think we were very committed to, the final 20% can look like… I mean, we always say, right? The first 80% is easy, the final 20% takes 80% of the time. I think we definitely were working through that phase with Waymo, but I was aware of that, but we knew we were at that stage.
我对 Waymo 所取得的进展感到非常自豪。其中一件我们非常坚定的事就是——最后那 20% 看起来可能……我们常说嘛，前 80% 容易，最后 20% 占了 80% 的时间。我觉得我们确实是在经历 Waymo 的这个阶段。我早就意识到了这一点，但我们也很清楚，我们正处在那个关键阶段。
(01:22:21)
We knew while there were many other self-driving companies, we knew the technology gap was there. In fact, right at the moment, when others were doubting Waymo is when, I don’t know, made the decision to invest more in Waymo, right? Because so in some ways it’s counterintuitive, but I think, look, we’ve always been a deep technology company, and waymo is a version of kind of building a AI robot that works well, and so we get attracted to problems like that. The caliber of the teams there, phenomenal teams.
当时虽然还有很多其他自动驾驶公司在发展，但我们知道技术差距确实存在。事实上，正是在别人质疑 Waymo 的时候，我们——我也说不清——决定进一步加大对 Waymo 的投入。从某种角度看，这种做法可能有点反直觉，但你看，我们一直是一家深度技术驱动的公司，而 Waymo 本质上是在打造一个运行良好的 AI 机器人，我们天然会被这种挑战所吸引。Waymo 的团队素质非常高，是一支出色的团队。
(01:23:03)
So I know you followed the space super closely. I’m talking to someone who knows the space well, but it was very obvious, it’s going to get there, and there’s still more work to do, but it’s a good example where we always prioritized being ambitious and safety at the same time, right? Equally committed to both and pushed hard and couldn’t be more thrilled with how it’s working, how much people love the experience. This year, definitely, we’ve scaled up a lot, and we’ll continue scaling up in ’26.
我知道你一直在密切关注这个领域，你对这块也非常了解。但对我们来说，很明显它是能实现的。当然，仍有很多工作要做，但这正是一个很好的例子，说明我们始终在“雄心”和“安全”之间保持并重。我们对两者的投入都非常坚定，也在不断努力推进。现在它的运作状态令人振奋，用户对体验的喜爱程度也非常高。今年我们确实实现了大幅扩展，2026 年还将继续扩大。
Lex Fridman
(01:23:42)
That said, the competition is heating up. You’ve been friendly with Elon even though, technically, he’s a competitor, but you’ve been friendly with a lot of tech CEOs, in that way, just showing respect towards them and so on. What do you think about the Robotaxi efforts that Tesla is doing? Do you see it as competition? What do you think? Do you like the competition?
不过话说回来，现在竞争正在升温。你和 Elon 的关系一直很友好，虽然从技术上讲他是你的竞争对手，但你和很多科技公司的 CEO 都保持着良好关系，这也表现出你对同行的尊重。那你怎么看特斯拉在 Robotaxi（自动驾驶出租车）方面的努力？你觉得这算是竞争吗？你怎么看？你喜欢这种竞争吗？
Sundar Pichai
(01:24:02)
We are one of the earliest and biggest backers of SpaceX as Google, right? So thrilled with what SpaceX is doing and fortunate to be investors as a company there, right? We don’t compete with Tesla directly. We are not making cars, et cetera, right? We are building L4, 5 autonomy. We are building a Waymo driver, which is general purpose and can be used in many settings.
我们（Google）其实是 SpaceX 最早、也是最大的支持者之一，对他们目前所做的事感到非常兴奋，也很幸运公司能参与投资。我们并不直接和特斯拉竞争，我们没有造车，对吧？我们是在打造 L4、L5 级别的自动驾驶能力。我们在构建 Waymo Driver——这是一种通用型的驾驶系统，可以应用于各种场景。
(01:24:32)
They’re obviously working on making Tesla self-driving too. I’ve just assumed it’s a de facto that Elon would succeed in whatever it does. So that is not something I question, but I think we are so far from… These spaces are such vast spaces. Like, I think about transportation, the opportunity space, the Waymo driver is a general purpose technology we can apply in many situations. So you have a vast green space in all future scenarios, I see Tesla doing well and Waymo doing well.
显然，他们也在推动特斯拉实现自动驾驶。我基本默认 Elon 无论做什么都会成功，这一点我从不怀疑。但我认为我们距离真正的竞争还很远——这个领域本身太广阔了。以交通领域来说，Waymo Driver 是通用型技术，可以应用于很多场景。在各种未来的用例中，这仍然是一片广阔的“绿地”。我认为特斯拉会做得很好，Waymo 也会做得很好。
Lex Fridman
(01:25:13)
Like we mentioned with the Neolithic package, I think it’s very possible that in the “AI package” when the history is written, autonomous vehicles, self-driving cars is like the big thing that changes everything. Imagine, over a period of a decade or two, just the complete transition from manually-driven to autonomous, in ways we might not predict, it might change the way we move about the world completely.
就像我们之前谈到的新石器工具包那样，我认为当“AI 工具包”进入历史书时，自动驾驶汽车很可能会是那个“改变一切”的关键元素。想象一下，在未来十年或二十年内，人工驾驶将彻底过渡到自动驾驶——以我们现在可能无法预见的方式——那将彻底改变人类出行方式。
(01:25:41)
So the possibility of that and then the second and third order effects, as you’re seeing now with Tesla, very possibly, would see some… Internally, with Alphabet, maybe Waymo, maybe some of the Gemini robotics stuff, it might lead you into the other domains of robotics because we should remember that Waymo is a robot.
所以这个可能性，以及由此引发的二级、三级效应，就像现在在特斯拉身上看到的那样——也许 Alphabet 内部，无论是 Waymo 还是 Gemini 的机器人项目，最终都可能会引领你们进入机器人技术的其他领域。毕竟，我们应该记住：Waymo 本身就是一个机器人。
Sundar Pichai
(01:26:04)
Mm-hmm.
嗯哼。
Lex Fridman
(01:26:05)
It just happens to be on four wheels. So you said that the next big thing, we can also throw that into AI package. The big aha moment might be in the space of robotics. What do you think that would look like?
它（Waymo）只是恰好有四个轮子而已。你说过下一个“大事件”也可以归入“AI 套件”里。也许真正的“顿悟时刻”会出现在机器人领域。你觉得那会是什么样子？
Sundar Pichai
(01:26:20)
Demis and the Google DeepMind team is very focused on Gemini robotics, right?
Demis 和 Google DeepMind 团队现在非常专注于 Gemini 机器人，对吧？
Lex Fridman
(01:26:20)
Yeah.
是的。
Sundar Pichai
(01:26:23)
So we are definitely building the underlying model as well. So we have a lot of investments there, and I think we are also pretty cutting-edge in our research there. So we are definitely driving that direction. We obviously are thinking about applications in robotics. We’ll kind of work CSD. We are partnering with a few companies today, but it’s an area I would say stay tuned.
所以我们也在构建底层模型，在这个领域投入了很多，而且我们的研究也处于相当前沿的位置。所以我们确实在积极推进这个方向。当然，我们也在思考机器人应用的实际落地。目前我们正在和几家公司合作开发一些项目，但我会说这是一个值得持续关注的领域。
(01:26:48)
We are yet to fully articulate our plans outside, but it’s an area we are definitely committed to driving a lot of progress. But I think AI ends up driving that massive progress on robotics. The field has been held back for a while. I mean, hardware has made extraordinary progress. The software had been the challenge, but with AI now and the generalized models we are building, we are building these models, getting them to work in the real world in a safe way, in a generalized way is the frontier we are pushing pretty hard on.
虽然我们还没有对外完全公开这方面的详细规划，但我们确实致力于推动这个领域实现巨大进展。我认为最终推动机器人领域变革的正是 AI。这一领域过去被耽搁了一段时间。硬件已经取得了长足进步，挑战其实一直在软件层面。但现在随着 AI 的进步，以及我们正在构建的通用模型，如何让这些模型在现实世界中以安全、泛化的方式运行，是我们正在大力推进的前沿方向。
Lex Fridman
(01:27:25)
Well, it’s really nice to see the models and the different teams integrated to where all of them are pushing towards one world model that’s being built. So from all these different angles, multimodal, you’re ultimately trying to get Gemini. So the same thing that would make AI mode really effective in answering your questions, which requires a kind of world model is the same kind of thing that would help a robot be useful in the physical world. So everything’s aligned.
很高兴看到现在各个模型和团队正在整合，共同推动一个“世界模型”的构建。从各个不同角度来看——包括多模态模型——你们最终的目标是实现 Gemini。正是这种世界模型让 AI 模式在回答问题时变得非常有效，而这种能力，同样可以让机器人在现实世界中变得有用。所以一切都在趋于统一。
Sundar Pichai
(01:27:54)
That is what makes this moment so unique because running, a company for the first time, you can do one investment in a very deep horizontal way. On top of it, you can drive multiple businesses forward, right? That’s effectively what we are doing in Google and Alphabet, right?
正是这一点让现在这个时刻显得如此独特。作为一家公司，我们第一次可以在一个非常深层次的横向领域上进行一次性投资，并在此基础上推动多个业务板块的发展。说到底，这正是我们在 Google 和 Alphabet 所做的事情。
Lex Fridman
(01:28:14)
Yeah, it’s all coming together. Like, it was planned ahead of time, but it’s not, of course. It’s all distributed. I mean, if Gmail, and Sheets, and all these other incredible services, I can sing Gmail praises for years. I mean, just this revolutionized email.
是的，一切都开始汇聚在一起了。感觉就像是早有规划，但其实并不是——而是一个分布式过程。就像 Gmail、Sheets 以及其他这些令人惊叹的服务，我可以夸 Gmail 一整年。它彻底革新了电子邮件。
(01:28:28)
But the moment you start to integrate AI Gemini into Gmail, I mean that’s the other thing, speaking of productivity multiplier, people complain about email, but that changed everything. Email, like the invention of email changed everything, and it has been ripe. There’s been a few folks trying to revolutionize email. Some of them on top of Gmail, but that’s like ripe for innovation, not just spam filtering, but you demoed a really nice demo of–
但一旦你将 Gemini 集成到 Gmail 中，说到“生产力倍增器”，这就完全不同了。人们常常抱怨邮件，但它的确改变了一切。电子邮件本身的发明就已经是颠覆性的，而现在它正迎来新的革新机遇。很多人都尝试重新定义电子邮件，有些甚至是基于 Gmail 上开发的。但这个领域还大有可为，不仅仅是垃圾邮件过滤，你之前展示的一个演示就非常棒——
Sundar Pichai
(01:28:55)
Personalized responses, right?
个性化回复，对吧？
Lex Fridman
(01:28:56)
Personalized responses. At first, I felt really bad about that, but then I realized that there’s nothing wrong to feel bad about because the example you gave is when a friend asks you went to whatever hiking location, “Do you have any advice?” It just searches through all your information to give them good advice, and then you put the cherry on top, maybe some love, or whatever camaraderie, but the informational aspect, the knowledge transfer, it does for you.
是的，个性化回复。一开始我对这个有点排斥，但后来我意识到，这其实没什么可内疚的。你举的例子很好：比如朋友问你去过哪个徒步地点，“有什么建议吗？”——系统会从你的信息中提取有价值的内容，帮你提供不错的建议，然后你再加上一点“人情味”——比如一些关爱或友情的表达。但信息的提取、知识的传递，已经帮你完成了大部分工作。
Sundar Pichai
(01:29:28)
I think there’ll be important moments. Like, today, if you write a card in your own handwriting and send it to someone, that’s a special thing. Similarly, there’ll be a time, I mean, to your friends, maybe your friend wrote and said he’s not doing well or something, those are moments you want to save your times for writing something, reaching out. But like saying, “Give me all the details of the trip you took to me makes a lot of sense for AI assistant to help you.” Right?
我认为有些时刻是非常重要的。就像今天，如果你亲笔写一张卡片寄给某人，那是一件很特别的事。同样地，将来也会有类似的时刻，比如你的朋友写信说他最近过得不好之类的，那些时刻你会想亲自去写点什么、表达关心。但像“把你上次旅行的所有细节整理给我”这种事，由 AI 助手来完成就很合理了，对吧？
(01:29:59)
So I think both are important, but I think I’m excited about that direction.
所以我认为这两种形式都很重要，但我确实对这个方向感到非常兴奋。
Lex Fridman
(01:30:04)
Yeah, I think, ultimately, it gives more time for us humans to do the things we humans find meaningful. I think it scares a lot of people because we’re going to have to ask ourselves the hard question of what do we find meaningful? I’m sure there’s answers, and it’s the old question of the meaning of existence. As you have to try to figure that out, that might be ultimately parenting, or being creative in some domains of art or writing, and it challenges to…
是的，我觉得最终这会让我们人类有更多时间去做那些真正对我们有意义的事。但这也会让很多人感到害怕，因为我们必须面对那个艰难的问题：什么对我们来说才是有意义的？我相信这个问题是有答案的，这其实就是关于存在意义的古老问题。当你必须去思考这个问题时，答案可能是养育孩子，或者是在艺术、写作等领域发挥创造力，而这会迫使你去……
(01:30:32)
It’s a good question of to ask yourself like, “In my life, what is the thing that brings me most joy and fulfillment?” If I’m able to actually focus more time on that, that’s really powerful.
这是一个很值得问自己的问题：“在我的人生中，什么事情能带来最大的喜悦和满足感？”如果我能真正花更多时间去做那件事，那将是一种巨大的力量。
Sundar Pichai
(01:30:45)
I think that’s the holy grail. If you get this right, I think it allows more people to find that.
我认为这就是终极目标（圣杯）。如果我们能把这件事做好，我相信这将帮助更多人找到属于他们自己的意义。
Programming
Lex Fridman
(01:30:52)
I have to ask you, on the programming front, AI is getting really good at programming. Gemini, both the agentic and just the LLM has been incredible, so a lot of programmers are really worried that they will lose their jobs. How worried should they be, and how should they adjust so they can be thriving in this new world, or more and more code is written by AI?
我必须问一下关于编程的问题。AI 在编程方面的能力正变得非常强大，Gemini 无论是智能体功能还是作为大语言模型，都非常出色。因此很多程序员开始担心会失去工作。他们该有多担忧？他们应该如何调整自己，以便在这个由 AI 写越来越多代码的新世界中继续蓬勃发展？
Sundar Pichai
(01:31:16)
I think a few things. Looking at Google, we’ve given various stats around 30% of code now uses AI-generated suggestions or whatever it is. But the most important metric, and we carefully measure it is, like, how much has our engineering velocity increased as a company due to AI, right? It’s tough measure, and we rigorously try to measure it, and our estimates are that number is now at 10%, right?
我有几点想说。以 Google 为例，我们发布过一些数据，大约 30% 的代码现在都借助了 AI 生成的建议或其他形式的辅助。但我们最关注的指标其实是：由于引入 AI，我们整个公司的工程开发效率提升了多少？这个指标很难测量，但我们非常严谨地在评估它，我们目前估算的提升幅度大约是 10%。
(01:31:51)
Like, now, across the company, we’ve accomplished a 10% engineering velocity increase using AI, but we plan to hire more engineers next year, right? Because the opportunity space of what we can do is expanding too, right?
也就是说，借助 AI，公司整体工程效率提升了 10%。但我们明年仍然计划招聘更多工程师，对吧？因为我们的机会空间也在不断扩大。
Lex Fridman
(01:32:14)
Mm-hmm.
嗯哼。
Sundar Pichai
(01:32:15)
So I think, hopefully, at least in the near to midterm, for many engineers, it frees up more and more of the… Even in engineering and coding, there are aspects which are so much fun. You’re designing. You’re architecting. You’re solving a problem. There’s a lot of grant work, which all goes hand in hand, but hopefully, it takes a lot of that away, makes it even more fun to code, frees you up more time to create, problem solve, brainstorm with your fellow colleagues and so on, right? So that’s the opportunity there.
所以我认为，至少在短期到中期，对于许多工程师来说，AI 能够释放他们越来越多的时间。即使在编程中，也有很多非常有趣的部分，比如系统设计、架构搭建、问题解决等等。当然，还有大量基础性工作与之相伴。但希望 AI 能帮你处理那些琐碎部分，让编程变得更有乐趣，也让你有更多时间去创造、解决问题，或是和同事头脑风暴，对吧？这就是其中的机会所在。
(01:32:56)
Second, I think it’ll attract, it’ll put the creative power in more people’s hands, which means people will create more. That means there’ll be more engineers doing more things. So it’s tough to fully predict, but I think in general, in this moment, it feels like people adopt these tools and be better programmers. Like, there are more people playing chess now than ever before, right? So it feels positive that way, to me, at least, speaking from within a Google context, is how I would talk to them about it.
其次，我认为这将把创造的能力交到更多人手中，这意味着会有更多人去创造，也意味着会有更多工程师从事更多事情。这很难完全预测，但总体而言，我觉得当下这种趋势是积极的——人们在使用这些工具后，会成为更好的程序员。就像现在玩国际象棋的人比以往任何时候都多，对吧？所以从我在 Google 的视角来看，这就是我会如何和大家谈论这个问题。
Lex Fridman
(01:33:36)
Still. I just know anecdotally, a lot of great programmers are generating a lot of code, so their productivity, they’re not always using all the code. There’s still a lot of editing, but even for me, still programming as a side thing, I think I’m like 5x more productive. I think even for a large code base that’s touching a lot of users like Google’s does, I’m imagining, very soon, that productivity should be going up even more.
尽管如此，我从身边了解到的情况是，很多优秀的程序员现在确实在生成大量代码，虽然并不会用上全部，仍然需要大量编辑。但即使对我这种把编程当成副业的人来说，我的效率大概提升了 5 倍。我想对于像 Google 这样拥有庞大代码库、服务海量用户的公司来说，这种效率提升在不久后应该会更明显。
Sundar Pichai
(01:34:08)
No. The big unlock will be as we make the agentic capabilities much more robust, right? I think that’s what unlocks that next big wave. I think the 10% is a massive number. Like, if tomorrow, I showed up and said, “You can improve a large organization’s productivity by 10%,” when you have tens of thousands of engineers, that’s a phenomenal number, and that’s different than what other site or statistic saying like, “This percentage of code is now written by AI.”
没错。下一个巨大突破将来自于我们让 AI 智能体能力更强大，对吧？我认为这会开启下一波真正的浪潮。现在这 10% 的效率提升已经是一个了不起的数字了。想象一下，如果明天我告诉你，“我们可以让一个拥有数万名工程师的大型组织效率提升 10%”，这将是一个极具分量的成就。这和你看到的“多少代码是由 AI 编写的”这种指标是不同层面的。
(01:34:41)
I’m talking more about, like, overall–
我讲的是整体层面的——
Lex Fridman
(01:34:42)
The actual productivity.
真正的生产力提升。
Sundar Pichai
(01:34:43)
The actual productivity. Right? Engineering productivity, which is two different things, which is the more important metric, but I think it’ll get better, right? I think there’s no engineer who, tomorrow, if you magically became 2x more productive, it’s just going to create more things. You’re going to create more value-added things, and so I think you’ll find more satisfaction in your job, right?
是的，我说的是实际生产力，对吧？工程生产力，这是另一回事，也更重要的一个指标。但我认为这个会继续改善，对吧？我觉得没有哪个工程师会在“明天突然变得生产力翻倍”的情况下，只是空闲下来——他们会去创造更多东西，更多有附加值的产出。所以我认为你在工作中会获得更多满足感。
Lex Fridman
(01:35:08)
There’s a lot of aspects. I mean, the actual Google code base might just improve because it’ll become more standardized, more easier for people to move about the code base because AI will help with that, and therefore, that will also allow the AI to understand the entire code base better, which makes the engineering aspect.
这当中有很多方面。比如说，Google 的整个代码库可能会因为 AI 的介入而变得更标准化、更容易让人理解和迁移，AI 能帮助实现这一点；这样反过来也能让 AI 更好地理解整个代码库，从而优化工程实践。
(01:35:25)
So I’ve been using Cursor a lot as a way to program with Gemini and other models. One of its powerful things is it’s aware of the entire code base, and that allows you to ask questions of it. It allows the agents to move about that code base in a really powerful way. I mean, that’s a huge unlock.
我现在经常用 Cursor 搭配 Gemini 和其他模型一起编程。它最强大的地方之一是，它能“意识到”整个代码库的结构，这样你就能向它提问，它也能在代码库中自由穿梭并完成任务。这是一个巨大的突破。
Sundar Pichai
(01:35:44)
Think about, like, migrations, refactoring old code bases.
想象一下代码迁移、老代码库的重构吧。
Lex Fridman
(01:35:52)
Refactoring, yeah.
重构，是的。
Sundar Pichai
(01:35:52)
Yeah. I mean, think about once we can do all this in a much better, more robust way than where we are today.
对。一旦我们能比现在更高效、更稳定地完成这些事，那将是质的飞跃。
Lex Fridman
(01:35:57)
I think in the end, everything will be written in JavaScript and run in Chrome. I think it’s all going to that direction. I mean, just for fun, Google has legendary coding interviews, like rigorous interviews for the engineers. Can you comment on how that has changed in the era of AI? It’s just such a weird… The whiteboard interview, I assume, is not allowed to have some prompts.
我觉得到最后，一切都会用 JavaScript 编写并在 Chrome 中运行。事情的走向似乎就是如此。说到有趣的事，Google 以工程师面试的严格著称。你能不能谈谈，在 AI 时代，这些面试发生了怎样的变化？现在的白板面试，我猜总不能允许提示词出现吧。
Sundar Pichai
(01:36:24)
Such a good question. Look, we are making sure we’ll introduce at least one round of in-person interviews for people just to make sure the fundamentals are there. I think they’ll end up being important, but it’s an equally important skill. Look, if you can use these tools to generate better code, I think that’s an asset. So overall, I think it’s a massive positive.
这是个好问题。我们目前确保至少有一轮是线下面试，以确认候选人具备扎实的基础知识。我认为这仍然是非常重要的。同时，能熟练使用这些工具生成更优代码，也是同样重要的一项技能。所以整体来看，我觉得这是个巨大的正面发展。
Lex Fridman
(01:36:56)
Vibe coding engineer, do you recommend people, students interested in programming still get an education in computer science in college education? What do you think?
那你怎么看待有志成为“理想型程序员”的学生？你是否仍建议他们在大学接受计算机科学教育？
Sundar Pichai
(01:37:06)
I do. If you have a passion for computer science, I would. Computer science is obviously a lot more than programming alone, so I would. I still don’t think I would change what you pursue. I think AI will horizontally allow impact every field. It’s pretty tough to predict in what ways. So any education in which you’re learning good first principles thinking, I think, is good education.
我建议学。如果你对计算机科学充满热情，我当然支持你去学。计算机科学显然不只是编程这么简单，所以我仍然推荐它。我不认为你需要因为 AI 的发展而改变你追求的方向。我认为 AI 将横向影响每一个领域，虽然我们很难准确预测它会如何发展。因此，任何能让你学习“第一性原理”思维的教育，我认为都是好教育。
Android
Lex Fridman
(01:37:37)
You’ve revolutionized web Browse. You’ve revolutionized a lot of things over the years. Android changed the game. It’s an incredible operating system. We could talk for hours about Android. What does the future of Android look like? Is it possible it becomes more and more AI-centric, especially now you throw into the mix, Android XR, with being able to do augmented reality, and mixed reality, and virtual reality in the physical world?
你彻底改变了网页浏览。这些年来你彻底改变了很多事情。安卓改变了游戏规则。它是一个令人难以置信的操作系统。我们可以花几个小时来谈论安卓。安卓的未来会是什么样子？它是否有可能变得越来越以人工智能为中心，特别是现在你又加入了安卓XR，能够在物理世界中实现增强现实、混合现实和虚拟现实？
Sundar Pichai
(01:38:09)
The best innovations in computing have come through a paradigm IO change, right? When with GUI, and then with a graphical user interface, and then with multi-touch in the context of mobile voice later on. Similarly, I feel like AR is that next paradigm. I think it was held back. Both the system integration challenges of making good AR is very, very hard.
计算领域最棒的创新都来自于范式性的输入输出变革，对吧？先是有了图形用户界面（GUI），然后在移动语音的背景下又有了多点触控。同样地，我觉得增强现实（AR）就是下一个范式。我认为它之前受到了阻碍。打造优秀的AR产品所面临的系统集成挑战非常、非常艰巨。
(01:38:38)
The second thing is you need AI to actually kind of… Otherwise, the IO is too complicated for you to have a natural seamless IO to that paradigm. AI ends up being super important, and so this is why Project Astra ends up being super critical for that Android XR world. But it is. I think when you use glasses and… Always been amazed at how useful these things are going to be.
第二点是你需要人工智能……否则，输入输出（IO）会过于复杂，你无法拥有一个自然无缝的IO来接入那个范式。人工智能最终变得超级重要，这就是为什么Astra项目对那个安卓XR世界来说至关重要。但事实就是如此。我认为当你使用眼镜时……我一直对这些东西将会有多么实用感到惊叹。
(01:39:10)
So look, I think it’s a real opportunity for Android. I think XR is one way it’ll kind of really come to life, but I think there’s an opportunity to rethink the mobile OS too, right? I think we’ve been kind of living in this paradigm of apps and shortcuts. All that won’t go away.
所以，我认为这对安卓来说是一个真正的机会。我认为XR是它得以实现的一种方式，但我也认为这也是一个重新思考移动操作系统的机会，对吧？我们一直生活在应用程序和快捷方式的范式中。这些都不会消失。
(01:39:28)
But again, if you’re trying to get stuff done at an operating system level, it needs to be more agentic so that you can kind of describe what you want to do or it proactively understands what you’re trying to do, learns from how you’re doing things over and over again and kind of as adapting to you all. That is kind of like the unlock we need to go and do.
但同样，如果你想在操作系统层面完成任务，它需要更具代理性，这样你就可以描述你想做什么，或者它能主动理解你试图做什么，从你一遍又一遍的做事方式中学习，并不断地适应你。这正是我们需要去解锁实现的东西。
Lex Fridman
(01:39:51)
Well, the basic efficient minimalist UI. I’ve gotten a chance to try the glasses and they’re incredible. It’s the little stuff. It’s hard to put into words, but no latency. It just works. Even that little map demo, where you look down and you look up, and there’s a very smooth transition between the two, and very small amount of useful information is shown to you, enough not to distract from the world outside, but enough to provide a bit of context when you need it.
嗯，那个基础、高效、极简的用户界面。我有机会试用了那款眼镜，它们太不可思议了。就是那些小细节。很难用语言形容，但是没有延迟。它就是能用。即使是那个小小的地图演示，你向下看再向上看，两者之间的过渡非常平滑，并且只显示了极少量有用的信息，既不会分散你对外部世界的注意力，又能在你需要时提供一些背景信息。
(01:40:25)
In order to bring that into reality, you have to solve a lot of the OS problems to make sure it works when you’re integrating the AI into the whole thing. So everything you do launches an agent that answers some basic question.
为了将其变为现实，你必须解决很多操作系统层面的问题，以确保在将人工智能整合到整个系统中时它能够正常工作。所以你做的每件事都会启动一个代理来回答一些基本问题。
Sundar Pichai
(01:40:39)
Good moonshot, you know?
是个不错的“登月计划”，你知道吗？
Lex Fridman
(01:40:39)
Yeah, it’s crazy.
是啊，太疯狂了。
Sundar Pichai
(01:40:42)
I love it. But I think we are, but it’s much closer to reality than other moonshots. We expect to have classes in the hands of developers later this year and in consumer science next year. So it’s an exciting time.
我喜欢这个想法。但我认为我们正在实现它，而且它比其他的“登月计划”更接近现实。我们预计今年晚些时候能将眼镜交到开发者手中，明年交到消费者手中。所以这是一个激动人心的时刻。
Lex Fridman
(01:40:59)
Yeah, well, extremely well-executed beam, all this stuff, because sometimes you don’t know. Like, somebody commented on a top comment on one of the demos of Beam. They said, “This will either be killed off in five weeks or revolutionize all meetings in five years.” And there’s very much, Google tries so many things, and sometimes, sadly, kills off very promising projects. But because there’s so many other things to focus on.
是的，那个执行得非常好的beam项目，所有这些东西，因为有时候你真的不知道。比如，有人在Beam的一个演示视频的热门评论下留言说：“这个项目要么在五周内被砍掉，要么在五年内彻底改变所有会议。” 确实如此，谷歌尝试了那么多东西，有时很可惜，会砍掉一些非常有前途的项目。但这是因为有太多其他事情需要专注。
(01:41:27)
I use so many Google products. Google Voice, I still use. I’m so glad that’s not being killed off. That’s still alive. Thank you, whoever is defending that, because it’s awesome, and it’s great. They keep innovating. I just want to list off, just as a big thank you, so Search, obviously, Google revolutionized, Chrome, and all of these could be multi-hour conversations. Gmail, I’ve been singing Gmail praises forever. Maps, incredible technological innovation on revolutionizing mapping. Android, like we talked about. YouTube, like we talked about. AdSense, Google Translate for the academic mind…
我用非常多的谷歌产品。Google Voice，我仍在使用。我很高兴它没有被砍掉。它还活着。谢谢你，无论是谁在守护它，因为它太棒了，非常出色。他们持续在创新。我只想列举一些，以表我巨大的感谢之情：搜索，显然，谷歌彻底改变了它；Chrome，所有这些都值得我们花好几个小时来谈论。Gmail，我一直对它赞不绝口。地图，在彻底改变地图绘制方面是令人难以置信的技术创新。安卓，我们聊过了。YouTube，我们也聊过了。AdSense，Google翻译，对于学术界来说…
Lex Fridman
(01:42:01)
… Google Translate. For the academic mind Google Scholar is incredible. And also the scanning of the books. So making all the world’s knowledge accessible, even with that knowledge is a kind of niche thing, which Google Scholar is. And then obviously with DeepMind, with AlphaZero, AlphaFold and AlphaEvolve, I could talk forever about AlphaEvolve. That’s mind-blowing. All of that released. And as part of that set of things you’ve released in this year when those brilliant articles were written about Google is done. And like we talked about, pioneering self-driving cars and quantum computing, which could be another thing that is low-key that’s scuba diving its way to changing the world forever. So another pothead/ [inaudible 01:42:53] question. If you build AGI, what kind of question would you ask it? What would you want to talk about? Definitively, Google has created AGI that can basically answer any question. What topic are you going to? Where are you going?
……Google翻译。对于学术界来说，Google学术搜索令人难以置信。还有图书扫描项目。致力于让全世界的知识都能被获取，即使这些知识是像Google学术搜索这样相对小众的东西。然后显然是DeepMind，及其AlphaZero、AlphaFold和AlphaEvolve，我可以永远谈论AlphaEvolve。那太震撼了。所有这些都发布了。就在那些写着“谷歌完蛋了”的“高明”文章满天飞的这一年里，你发布了这一系列的东西。而且正如我们所说，开创了自动驾驶汽车和量子计算，这可能是另一件正在低调发展、悄无声息地永远改变世界的事情。所以，再问一个有点天马行空的问题。如果你们造出了通用人工智能（AGI），你会问它什么样的问题？你想谈论什么？假设谷歌已经明确创造出了一个基本上能回答任何问题的AGI。你会切入哪个话题？你的方向是什么？
Questions for AGI
Sundar Pichai
(01:43:14)
It’s a great question. Maybe it’s proactive by then and should tell me a few things I should know. But I think if I were to ask it, I think it’ll help us understand ourselves much better in a way that’ll surprise us, I think. And so maybe that, you already see people do it with the products, but in a AGI context, I think that’ll be pretty powerful.
这是个好问题。也许到那时它会很主动，主动告诉我一些我应该知道的事情。但如果非要我问它，我想它会以一种让我们惊讶的方式，帮助我们更好地了解自己。你已经看到人们通过现有产品这么做了，但在通用人工智能（AGI）的背景下，我认为那将会非常强大。
Lex Fridman
(01:43:43)
On a personal level, or a general human nature?
是在个人层面上，还是在普遍人性的层面上？
Sundar Pichai
(01:43:46)
At a personal level.
在个人层面上。
Lex Fridman
(01:43:46)
Okay.
好的。
Sundar Pichai
(01:43:47)
So you talking to AGI, I think there is some chance it’ll understand you in a very deep way, I think in a profound way, that’s a possibility. I think there is also the obvious thing of maybe it helps us understand the universe better in a way that expands the frontiers of our understanding of the world. That is something super exciting. But look, I really don’t know. I think I haven’t had access to something that powerful yet, but I think those are all possibilities.
所以当你和AGI交谈时，我认为它有可能以一种非常深刻的方式理解你，我认为这是一种可能性。当然还有一种显而易见的情况，也许它能帮助我们更好地理解宇宙，扩展我们对世界认知的边界。那将是超级令人兴奋的事情。但是，说实话，我真的不知道。我还没接触过那么强大的东西，但我认为这些都是可能性。
Lex Fridman
(01:44:29)
I think on the personal level, asking questions about yourself, a sequence of questions like that about what makes me happy, I think we would be very surprised to learn through a sequence of questions and answers, we might explore some profound truths in a way that sometimes art reveals to us, great books reveal to us, great conversations with loved ones reveal. Things that are obvious in retrospect, but are nice when they’re said. But for me, number one question is about, how many alien civilizations are there? 100%.
我认为在个人层面上，问关于自己的问题，比如像“什么能让我快乐”这样一系列的问题，我想通过这一系列的问答，我们会非常惊讶地发现一些深刻的真理，就像有时艺术、伟大的书籍、或与挚爱的深刻对话向我们揭示的那样。那些事后看来显而易见，但被说出来时却感觉很好的事情。但对我来说，第一问题是关于，宇宙中有多少个外星文明？百分之百是这个。
Sundar Pichai
(01:45:05)
That’s going to be your first question?
那会是你的第一个问题？
Lex Fridman
(01:45:06)
Number one, how many living and dead alien civilizations? Maybe a bunch of follow-ups, like how close are they? Are they dangerous? If there’s no alien civilizations, why? Or if there’s no advanced alien civilizations, but bacteria-like life everywhere. Why? What is the barrier preventing it from getting to that? Is it because that when you get sufficiently intelligent, you end up destroying ourselves, because you need competition in order to develop an advanced civilization. And when you have competition it’s going to lead to military conflict, and conflict eventually kills everybody. I don’t know, I’m going to have that kind of discussion.
第一个问题，有多少存活的和已灭亡的外星文明？可能还有一堆追问，比如它们有多近？它们危险吗？如果没有外星文明，为什么？或者如果没有高等外星文明，但到处都有类似细菌的生命，又是为什么？是什么障碍阻止了生命发展到那个阶段？是不是因为当你变得足够聪明时，你最终会自我毁灭，因为你需要竞争才能发展出高等文明。而当你有竞争时，就会导致军事冲突，冲突最终会杀死所有人。我不知道，但我会进行那样的讨论。
Sundar Pichai
(01:45:47)
Get an answer to the Fermi Paradox, yeah.
得到费米悖论的答案，是的。
Lex Fridman
(01:45:49)
Exactly. And have a real discussion about it. I’m realizing now with your answer is a more productive answer, because I’m not sure what I’m going to do with that information. But maybe it speaks to the general human curiosity that Liz talked about, that we’re all just really curious, and making the world’s information accessible allows our curiosity to be satiated some with AI even more, we can be more and more curious and learn more about the world, about ourselves. And in so doing, I always wonder, I don’t know if you can comment on, is it possible to measure the, not the GDP productivity increase like we talked about, but maybe whatever that increases, the breadth and depth of human knowledge that Google has unlocked with Google Search, and now with AI mode with Gemini, it’s a difficult thing to measure.
正是如此。并且就此进行真正的讨论。我现在意识到您的回答是一个更具建设性的回答，因为我不确定我将如何处理这些信息。但这也许印证了莉兹（Liz）谈到的人类普遍的好奇心，我们都真的很好奇，而让世界的信息触手可及，让我们的好奇心得以部分满足，有了人工智能更是如此，我们可以变得越来越好奇，了解更多关于世界、关于我们自己的知识。这样做的时候，我总在想，不知道您是否能评论一下，是否有可能衡量——不是我们谈到的 GDP 生产力的增长，而是——谷歌通过谷歌搜索，以及现在通过 Gemini 的 AI 模式所解锁的人类知识的广度和深度所带来的任何增长，这是一个很难衡量的事情。
Sundar Pichai
(01:46:47)
Many years ago there was, I think it was a MIT study, they just estimated the impact of Google Search. And they basically said it’s the equivalent to, on a per person basis, it’s few thousands of dollars per year per person, like is the value that got created per year. But yeah, it’s tough to capture these things, right? You kind of take it for granted as these things come, and the frontier keeps moving. But how do you measure the value of something like AlphaFold over time, and so on?
很多年前，我记得是麻省理工学院（MIT）的一项研究，他们估算了谷歌搜索的影响。他们基本上说，按人均计算，这相当于每年为每个人创造了几千美元的价值。但是，是的，这些东西很难量化，对吧？随着这些技术的出现，你有点想当然了，而且前沿总是在不断推进。但是，你如何衡量像 AlphaFold 这样的东西随时间推移所产生的价值等等呢？
Lex Fridman
(01:47:25)
And also the increasing quality of life when you learn more. I have to say with some of the programming I do done by AI, for some reason I’m more excited to program.
而且当你学到更多东西时，生活质量也会提高。我必须说，对于我做的那些由人工智能完成的编程工作，出于某种原因，我反而更兴奋地去编程了。
Sundar Pichai
(01:47:35)
Yeah.
是的。
Lex Fridman
(01:47:36)
And so the same with knowledge, with discovering things about the world, it makes you more excited to be alive. It makes you more curious, and the more curious, you are more exciting it is to live and experience the world. And it’s very hard to… I don’t know if that makes you more productive. Probably not nearly as much as it makes you happy to be alive. And that’s a hard thing to measure, the quality of life increases some of these things do. As AI continues to get better and better at everything that humans do, what do you think is the biggest thing that makes us humans special?
知识也是如此，发现关于世界的事物，会让你对活着感到更加兴奋。它让你更好奇，而你越好奇，生活和体验这个世界就越令人兴奋。这很难……我不知道这是否让你更有生产力。可能远不如它让你对活着感到快乐那样多。而衡量生活质量的提升是很难的，其中一些事情确实提升了生活质量。随着人工智能在人类所做的一切事情上变得越来越好，您认为是什么最大的特质使我们人类与众不同？
Future of humanity
Sundar Pichai
(01:48:14)
Look, I think [inaudible 01:48:19] the essence of humanity, there’s something about the consciousness we have, what makes us uniquely human, maybe the lines will blur over time. And it’s tough to articulate. But I hope, hopefully we live in a world where if you make resources more plentiful and make the world lesser of a zero-sum game over time, which it’s not, but in a resource constrained environment, people perceive it to be. And so I hope the values of what makes us uniquely human, empathy, kindness, all that surfaces more is the aspirational hope I have.
你看，我认为[听不清 01:48:19]人性的本质，我们拥有的意识有其特殊之处，是什么让我们独一无二地成为人类，也许随着时间的推移界限会变得模糊。这很难阐明。但我希望，希望我们生活在一个这样的世界里，如果你让资源更加丰富，让世界随着时间的推移不再那么像一场零和游戏——虽然它本身不是，但在资源受限的环境中，人们会这样认为。所以我希望那些让我们独一无二的人类价值观，同理心、善良，所有这些都能更多地显现出来，这是我所渴望的希望。
Lex Fridman
(01:49:11)
Yeah, it multiplies the compassion, but also the curiosity, just the banter, the debates we’ll have about the meaning of it all. And I also think in the scientific domains, all the incredible work that DeepMind is doing, I think we’ll still continue to play, to explore scientific questions, mathematical questions, physics questions, even as AI gets better and better at helping us solve some of the questions. Sometimes the question itself is a really difficult thing.
是的，它放大了同情心，但也放大了好奇心，仅仅是我们对这一切意义的调侃和辩论。而且我也认为在科学领域，DeepMind 正在做的所有令人难以置信的工作，我认为我们将继续玩耍，探索科学问题、数学问题、物理问题，即使人工智能在帮助我们解决一些问题方面变得越来越好。有时问题本身就是一件非常困难的事情。
Sundar Pichai
(01:49:43)
Both the right new questions to ask and the answers to them and the self-discovery process, which it’ll drive, I think. Our early work with both co-scientist and AlphaEvolve, just super exciting to see.
我认为，它将推动提出正确的新问题、找到它们的答案以及自我发现的过程。我们早期与 co-scientist 和 AlphaEvolve 的合作，看到这些真是令人超级兴奋。
Lex Fridman
(01:49:59)
What gives you hope about the future of human civilization.
是什么让您对人类文明的未来充满希望？
Sundar Pichai
(01:50:04)
I’m an optimist, and I look at, if you were to say you take the journey of human civilization, we have relentlessly made the world better in many ways. At any given moment in time, there are big issues to work through it may look, but I always ask myself the question, would you have been born now or any other time in the past? I most often, not most often, almost always would rather be born now. And so that’s the extraordinary thing the human civilization has accomplished, and we’ve kind of constantly made the world a better place. And so something tells me as humanity, we always rise collectively to drive that frontier forward. So I expect it to be no different in the future.
我是一个乐观主义者，我看待问题的方式是，如果你回顾人类文明的旅程，我们在很多方面坚持不懈地让世界变得更好。在任何特定的时刻，都可能存在需要解决的重大问题，它看起来可能如此，但我总是问自己一个问题：你愿意出生在现在还是过去的任何其他时间？我绝大多数时候，不，几乎总是宁愿出生在现在。这就是人类文明所取得的非凡成就，我们一直在不断地让世界变得更美好。所以有些东西告诉我，作为人类，我们总是集体奋起，推动前沿向前发展。所以我预计未来也不会有什么不同。
Lex Fridman
(01:51:00)
I agree with you totally. I’m truly grateful to be alive in this moment. And I’m also really excited for the future, and the work you and the incredible teams here are doing is one of the big reasons I’m excited for the future. So thank you. Thank you for all the cool products you’ve built. And please don’t kill Google Voice. Thank you, Sundar.
我完全同意您的看法。我真的非常感激能活在当下。我也对未来感到非常兴奋，而您和这里出色的团队所做的工作是我对未来感到兴奋的重要原因之一。所以谢谢您。感谢您打造的所有酷炫产品。还有，请不要砍掉 Google Voice。谢谢您，桑达尔。
Sundar Pichai
(01:51:21)
We won’t. Yeah.
我们不会的。是的。
Lex Fridman
(01:51:22)
Thank you for talking today. This was incredible. Thank you.
感谢您今天的谈话。这太棒了。谢谢您。
Sundar Pichai
(01:51:24)
Real pleasure. Appreciate it.
非常荣幸。感谢。
Demo: Google Beam
Lex Fridman
(01:51:27)
Thanks for listening to this conversation with Sundar Pichai. To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description or at lexfridman.com/sponsors. Shortly before this conversation, I got a chance to get a couple of demos that frankly blew my mind. The engineering was really impressive. The first demo was Google Beam, and the second demo was the XR glasses. And some of it was caught on video, so I thought I would include here some of those video clips.
感谢收听本次与桑达尔·皮查伊的对话。要支持本播客，请查看描述中的赞助商或访问 lexfridman.com/sponsors。在这次对话前不久，我有机会体验了几个演示，坦白说，它们让我大开眼界。工程技术令人印象深刻。第一个演示是 Google Beam，第二个演示是 XR 眼镜。其中一些被录制了下来，所以我想在这里包含一些视频片段。
Andrew
(01:52:01)
Hey Lex, my name’s Andrew.
嘿，莱克斯，我叫安德鲁。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:03)
How you doing?
你好吗？
Andrew
(01:52:03)
I lead the Google Beam team and we’re going to be excited to show you a demo. We’re going to show you, I think, a glimpse of something new. So that’s the idea, a way to connect, a way to feel present from anywhere with anybody you care about. Here’s Google Beam. This is a development platform that we’ve built. So there’s a prototype here of Google Beam. There’s one right down the hallway. I’m going to go down and turn that on in a second. We’re going to experience it together. We’ll be back in the same room.
我领导 Google Beam 团队，我们很高兴能向您展示一个演示。我们将向您展示，我认为，是某种新事物的一瞥。这就是我们的理念，一种连接的方式，一种让你无论身在何处都能与你关心的人感受到临场感的方式。这就是 Google Beam。这是我们构建的一个开发平台。这里有一个 Google Beam 的原型。走廊那边还有一个。我马上就去把它打开。我们将一起体验它。我们会回到同一个房间。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:26)
Wonderful. Whoa. Okay.
太棒了。哇。好的。
Andrew
(01:52:27)
Hey Lex, here we are.
嘿，莱克斯，我们来了。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:27)
All right. This is real already. Wow.
好的。这已经很真实了。哇。
Andrew
(01:52:27)
This is real.
这是真实的。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:27)
Wow.
哇。
Andrew
(01:52:37)
Good to see you. This is Google Beam. We’re trying to make it feel like you and I could be anywhere in the world, but when these magic windows open, we’re back together. I see you exactly the same way you see me. It’s almost like we’re sitting at the table sharing a table together, I could learn from you, talk to you, share a meal with you, get to know you.
很高兴见到你。这就是 Google Beam。我们试图让它感觉就像你我可以在世界任何地方，但是当这些神奇的窗口打开时，我们就又在一起了。我看到你的方式和你看到我的方式完全一样。这几乎就像我们坐在桌子旁，共用一张桌子，我可以向你学习，和你交谈，和你一起吃饭，了解你。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:37)
So you can feel the depth of this.
所以你能感受到它的深度。
Andrew
(01:52:37)
Yeah, great to meet you.
是的，很高兴认识你。
Lex Fridman
(01:52:58)
Wow. So for people who probably can’t even imagine what this looks like, there’s a 3D version. It looks real. You look real.
哇。所以对于那些可能无法想象它是什么样子的人来说，这是一个 3D 版本。它看起来很真实。你看起来很真实。
Andrew
(01:53:06)
Yeah. It looks to me. It looks real to you.
是的。对我来说是这样。对你来说也很真实。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:06)
It looks like you’re coming out of the screen.
看起来你像是要从屏幕里出来一样。
Andrew
(01:53:09)
We quickly believe once we’re in Beam that we’re just together. You settle into it.
一旦我们进入 Beam，我们很快就会相信我们就在一起。你会适应它的。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:15)
Yeah.
是的。
Andrew
(01:53:15)
You’re naturally attuned to seeing the world like this, and you just get used to seeing people this way, but literally from anywhere in the world with these magic screens.
你天生就适应了这样看世界，你很快就习惯了用这种方式看人，但实际上，通过这些神奇的屏幕，你可以从世界任何地方看到。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:23)
This is incredible.
这太不可思议了。
Andrew
(01:53:23)
It’s a neat technology.
这是一项很棒的技术。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:25)
Wow. So I saw demos of this, but they don’t come close to the experience of this. I think one of the top YouTube comments and one of the demos I saw was like, why would I want a high definition? I am trying to turn off the camera. But this actually, this feels like the camera has been turned off and we’re just in the same room together. This is really compelling.
哇。我看过这个的演示，但它们远不及这种体验。我记得在我看的一个演示的 YouTube 热门评论里有人说，我为什么要高清？我正想关掉摄像头呢。但这个实际上，感觉就像摄像头已经关掉了，我们就在同一个房间里。这真的很有吸引力。
Andrew
(01:53:44)
That’s right. I know it’s kind of late in the day too. So I brought you a snack just in case you’re a little bit hungry.
没错。我知道现在时间也有点晚了。所以我给你带了点零食，以防你有点饿。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:50)
So can you push it farther and it just becomes-
所以你能把它推得更远，然后它就变成——
Andrew
(01:53:52)
Yeah. Let’s try to float it between rooms. It kind of fades it from my room into yours.
是的。让我们试着让它在房间之间漂浮。它会从我的房间逐渐淡入你的房间。
Lex Fridman
(01:53:56)
And then you see my hand. The depth of my hand.
然后你看到我的手。我手的深度。
Andrew
(01:53:59)
Yeah, of course. Yes.
是的，当然。是的。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:00)
Wow.
哇。
Andrew
(01:54:00)
Of course, yeah. It feels like you… Try this, try give me a high five. And there’s almost a sensation of being in touch.
当然，是的。感觉就像你……试试这个，试着跟我击个掌。几乎有一种接触的感觉。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:00)
Yes.
是的。
Andrew
(01:54:00)
You almost feel.
你几乎能感觉到。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:05)
Yes.
是的。
Andrew
(01:54:06)
Because you’re so attuned to that should be a high five, it feeling like you could connect with somebody that way.
因为你非常习惯那应该是一个击掌，感觉就像你可以用那种方式与某人建立联系。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:06)
Yeah.
是的。
Andrew
(01:54:11)
So it’s kind of a magical experience.
所以这是一种神奇的体验。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:12)
Oh, this is really nice. How much does it cost?
哦，这个真不错。它要多少钱？
Andrew
(01:54:14)
Yeah. We’ve got a lot of companies testing it. We just announced that we’re going to be bringing it to offices soon as a set of products. We’ve got some companies helping us build these screens. But eventually, I think this will be in almost every screen.
是的。我们有很多公司在测试它。我们刚刚宣布，很快就会把它作为一系列产品引入办公室。我们有一些公司在帮助我们制造这些屏幕。但最终，我认为这几乎会出现在每一个屏幕上。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:26)
There’s nothing, I’m not wearing anything. Well, I’m wearing a suit and tie to clarify, I am wearing clothes. This is not CGI. But outside of that, cool. And the audio is really good. And you can see me in the same three-dimensional way.
我什么都没戴。好吧，我穿着西装打着领带，澄清一下，我穿着衣服。这不是 CGI。但除此之外，很酷。而且音频效果非常好。你也能以同样的三维方式看到我。
Andrew
(01:54:40)
Yeah, the audio is spatialized. So if I’m talking from here, of course it sounds like I’m talking from here. If I move to the other side of the room to here.
是的，音频是空间化的。所以如果我从这里说话，当然听起来就像我从这里说话。如果我移动到房间的另一边到这里。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:41)
Wow.
哇。
Andrew
(01:54:48)
So these little subtle cues, these really matter to bring people together, all the non-verbals, all the emotion, the things that are lost today. Here it is. We put it back into the system.
所以这些细微的线索，对于将人们聚集在一起非常重要，所有的非语言信息，所有的情感，那些今天丢失的东西。就在这里。我们把它重新放回了系统中。
Lex Fridman
(01:54:57)
You pulled this off. Holy shit, they pulled it off. And integrated into this, I saw the translation also. This is the-
你们做到了。天哪，他们做到了。而且我还看到翻译功能也集成进来了。这是——
Andrew
(01:55:05)
Yeah, we’ve got a bunch of things. Let me show you a couple kind of cool things. Let’s do a little bit of work together. Maybe we could critique one of your latest videos. So you and I work together, so of course we’re in the same room. But with the super power, I can bring other things in here with me. And it’s nice. It’s like we could sit together, we could watch something. We could work. We’ve shared meals as a team together in this system. But once you do the presence aspect of this, you want to bring some other superpowers to it.
是的，我们有很多东西。让我给你展示几个很酷的东西。让我们一起做点工作。也许我们可以评论一下你最新的一个视频。所以你和我一起工作，当然我们就在同一个房间里。但是有了这个超能力，我可以把其他东西带到这里来。这很好。就像我们可以坐在一起，我们可以看点东西。我们可以工作。我们团队在这个系统里一起吃过饭。但是一旦你实现了这种临场感，你就会想给它带来一些其他的超能力。
Lex Fridman
(01:55:35)
Wow. And so you could do review code together.
哇。所以你们可以一起审查代码。
Andrew
(01:55:38)
Yeah, yeah, exactly. I’ve got some slides I’m working on. Maybe you could help me with this. Keep your eyes on me for a second. I’ll slide back into the center. I didn’t really move. But the system just kind of puts us in the right spot and knows where we need to be.
是的，是的，没错。我有一些正在做的幻灯片。也许你可以帮我看看这个。请看着我一会儿。我会滑回中心。我其实没动。但是系统只是把我们放在了正确的位置，知道我们需要在哪里。
Lex Fridman
(01:55:50)
Oh, so you just turned to your laptop, the system moves you, and then it does the overlay automatically.
哦，所以你只是转向你的笔记本电脑，系统移动了你，然后自动进行了叠加。
Andrew
(01:55:55)
It kind of warps the room to put things in the spot that they need to be in.
它有点像扭曲了房间，把东西放在它们需要的位置上。
Lex Fridman
(01:55:58)
Yeah.
是的。
Andrew
(01:55:59)
Everything has a place in the room, everything has a sense of presence or spatial consistency. And that makes it feel like we’re together with us and other things.
房间里的每样东西都有一个位置，每样东西都有临场感或空间一致性。这让我们感觉我们和我们以及其他东西在一起。
Lex Fridman
(01:56:06)
I should also say, you’re not just three-dimensional, it feels like you’re leaning out of the screen, you’re coming out of the screen. You’re not just in that world three-dimensionaly. Yeah, exactly. Holy crap. Move back to center. Okay.
我还应该说，你不仅仅是三维的，感觉你像是从屏幕里探出身来，你正从屏幕里出来。你不仅仅是在那个世界里是三维的。是的，没错。天哪。移回中心。好的。
Andrew
(01:56:23)
Let me tell you how this works. You probably already have the premise of it. But there’s two things, two really hard things that we put together. One is a AI video model. So there’s a set of cameras, you asked about those earlier. There’s six color cameras, just like webcams that we have today, taking video streams and feeding them into our AI model and turning that into a 3D video of you and I. It’s effectively a light field. So it’s kind of an interactive 3D video that you can see from any perspective. That’s transmitted over to the second thing. And that’s a light field display. And it’s happening bidirectionally. I see you and you see me both in our light field displays. These are effectively flat televisions or flat displays, but they have the sense of dimensionality, depth, size is correct. You can see shadows and lighting are correct. And everything’s correct from your vantage point.
让我告诉你这是如何工作的。你可能已经了解了它的基本原理。但有两件事，两件我们整合在一起的非常困难的事情。一个是人工智能视频模型。所以有一组摄像头，你之前问过。有六个彩色摄像头，就像我们今天使用的网络摄像头一样，捕捉视频流并将其输入我们的人工智能模型，然后将其转换成你和我的 3D 视频。它实际上是一个光场。所以它是一种交互式的 3D 视频，你可以从任何角度观看。这被传输到第二个东西。那就是光场显示器。而且它是双向进行的。我在我的光场显示器里看到你，你也在你的光场显示器里看到我。这些实际上是平板电视或平板显示器，但它们具有维度感、深度感，尺寸是正确的。你可以看到阴影和光照是正确的。从你的视角看，一切都是正确的。
(01:57:12)
So if you move around ever so slightly, and I hold still, you see a different perspective here. You see kind of things that were included become revealed. You see shadows that move in the way they should move. All of that’s computed and generated using our AI video model for you. It’s based on your eye position, where does the right scene need to be placed in this light field display for you just to feel present?
所以如果你稍微移动一下，而我保持不动，你会在这里看到不同的视角。你会看到一些原本被遮挡的东西显露出来。你会看到阴影以它们应有的方式移动。所有这些都是由我们的人工智能视频模型为你计算和生成的。它基于你的眼睛位置，正确的场景需要放置在这个光场显示器的什么位置，才能让你感觉身临其境？
Lex Fridman
(01:57:33)
It’s real time. No latency. I’m not seeing latency. You weren’t freezing up at all.
这是实时的。没有延迟。我没看到延迟。你一点都没卡顿。
Andrew
(01:57:37)
No, no, I hope not. I think it’s you and I together real time. That’s what you need for real communication. And at a quality level it’s realistic.
不，不，希望没有。我认为是你和我实时在一起。这是真正交流所需要的。而且在质量层面上它是逼真的。
Lex Fridman
(01:57:46)
This is awesome. Is it possible to do three people? Is that going to move that way also?
这太棒了。可以三个人吗？也会那样移动吗？
Andrew
(01:57:50)
Yeah. Let me kind of show you. So if she enters the room with us, you can see her, you can see me. And if we had more people, you eventually lose a sense of presence. You kind of shrink people down. You lose a sense of scale. So think of it as the window fits a certain number of people. If you want to fit a big group of people, you want the boardroom or the big room, you need a much wider window. If you want to see just grandma and the kids, you can do smaller windows. So everybody has a seat at the table, or everybody has a sense of where they belong, and there’s this sense of presence that’s obeyed. If you have too many people, you kind of go back to 2D metaphors that we’re used to people in tiles placed anywhere.
是的。让我给你演示一下。所以如果她和我们一起进入房间，你可以看到她，你可以看到我。如果我们有更多的人，你最终会失去临场感。你会把人缩小。你会失去尺度感。所以可以把它想象成这个窗口适合一定数量的人。如果你想容纳一大群人，你想要会议室或大房间，你需要一个更宽的窗口。如果你只想看到奶奶和孩子们，你可以用更小的窗口。所以每个人在桌子上都有一个位置，或者每个人都感觉自己属于哪里，并且这种临场感得到了遵守。如果人太多，你就会回到我们习惯的 2D 隐喻，即人们像瓷砖一样被放置在任何地方。
Lex Fridman
(01:58:27)
For the image I’m seeing, did you have to get scanned?
对于我看到的图像，你需要被扫描吗？
Andrew
(01:58:29)
I mean, I see you without being scanned. So it’s just so much easier if you don’t have to wear anything. You don’t have to pre-scan.
我的意思是，我看到你也没有被扫描。所以如果你不需要戴任何东西，那就容易多了。你不需要预先扫描。
Lex Fridman
(01:58:34)
Yeah.
是的。
Andrew
(01:58:34)
And you just do it the way it’s supposed to happen without anybody having to learn anything or put anything on.
你就以它应该发生的方式去做，不需要任何人学习任何东西或穿戴任何东西。
Lex Fridman
(01:58:39)
I thought you had to solve the scanning problem. But here you don’t. It’s just cameras. Its just vision.
我以为你们必须解决扫描问题。但这里你们没有。只是摄像头。只是视觉。
Andrew
(01:58:46)
That’s right. It’s video. Yeah, we’re not trying to make an approximation of you, because everything you do every day matters. I cut myself shaving, I put on a pin. All the little kind of aspects of you, those just happen. We don’t have the time to scan or kind of capture those or dress avatars. We kind of appear as we appear. And so all that’s transmitted truthfully as it’s happening.
没错。是视频。是的，我们不是试图制造一个你的近似值，因为你每天做的每件事都很重要。我刮胡子刮伤了自己，我戴上了一个别针。所有关于你的细微方面，它们就那样发生了。我们没有时间去扫描或捕捉那些，或者给虚拟形象穿衣服。我们就是以我们本来的样子出现。所以所有这些都如实地、实时地传输。
Demo: Google XR Glasses
Speaker 3
(01:59:10)
How you doing?
你好吗？
Lex Fridman
(01:59:11)
Good to meet you.
很高兴见到你。
Speaker 3
(01:59:12)
Nice to meet you. So as Max mentioned, got the eye glasses here. We start with the foundation of great glasses, something stylish, lightweight, wearable. Then we say how can we build great technology and experiences on top of that? One of the core tenets of the Android XR platform, this idea of a multimodal conversational device. See what you see, hear what you hear. So you’ve got a camera, you’ve got speakers, multiple microphones for speaker isolation. I’ll give you a chance to try these yourself. Yeah, sorry, I woke it up there.
很高兴见到你。正如 Max 提到的，这里有这款眼镜。我们从一副好眼镜的基础开始，要时尚、轻便、可穿戴。然后我们思考如何在此基础上构建伟大的技术和体验？Android XR 平台的核心原则之一，就是这种多模态对话设备的概念。看到你所看到的，听到你所听到的。所以它有一个摄像头，有扬声器，还有用于说话人隔离的多个麦克风。我会让你有机会亲自试试。是的，抱歉，我把它唤醒了。
Lex Fridman
(01:59:37)
Whoa.
哇哦。
Speaker 3
(01:59:39)
Yeah. So the first thing you see is a super simple, straightforward home screen.
是的。所以你首先看到的是一个超级简单、直观的主屏幕。
Lex Fridman
(01:59:45)
Yes.
是的。
Speaker 3
(01:59:45)
So you probably see the time, the weather, calendar, appointments there. This is designed to be sort of your one-stop shop for quick glanceable information throughout the day. We want it to do something that’s easy to get what you need, and then go back to what you’re doing. So you can imagine turning on the display, getting that quick glance, and then continuing on your way. You can be fully conversational at this point. You can ask questions for example about the paintings. You can interrupt. You can ask follow up questions. And as I mentioned before, if you want to at any time, pause, you just tap there on the right.
所以你可能在那里看到了时间、天气、日历、约会。这被设计成你全天快速浏览信息的一站式商店。我们希望它能让你轻松获取所需信息，然后回到你正在做的事情上。所以你可以想象打开显示屏，快速看一眼，然后继续你的路。此时你可以进行完全的对话。例如，你可以问关于画作的问题。你可以打断。你可以问后续问题。正如我之前提到的，如果你想在任何时候暂停，只需点击右侧即可。
Lex Fridman
(02:00:12)
Gemini, how much does this painting cost?
Gemini，这幅画多少钱？
Gemini
(02:00:15)
The painting is called the Bridge of Louis-Philippe, 1875 by Armand Guillaumin. It appears to be a print. And it would be impossible to know it’s cost without finding the seller.
这幅画名为《路易-菲利普桥》，由阿尔芒·基约曼于 1875 年创作。它看起来像是一幅印刷品。如果不找到卖家，就不可能知道它的价格。
Lex Fridman
(02:00:25)
Okay, so this is fake. I understand. Why do humans pay so much money for paintings?
好的，所以这是假的。我明白了。为什么人类会花这么多钱买画？
Gemini
(02:00:30)
People pay a lot for paintings, because of their artistic merits, the artist’s name and rarity, and for the appreciation you learn.
人们花很多钱买画，是因为它们的艺术价值、艺术家的名气和稀有性，以及你从中获得的欣赏价值。
Speaker 3
(02:00:38)
So a few more things that we want to show you just for sake of time, you go ahead and long press on the side again to salute Gemini there. There you go. Did you catch Google I/O last week by any chance?
那么，为了节省时间，我们还想给你展示几样东西，你继续长按侧面来向 Gemini 致意。好了。你上周碰巧看了 Google I/O 吗？
Lex Fridman
(02:00:48)
Yes.
是的。
Speaker 3
(02:00:48)
So you might’ve seen on stage the Google Maps experience very briefly. I wanted to give you a chance to get a sense of what that feels like today. You can imagine you’re walking down the street. If you look up like you’re walking straight ahead, you get quick turn-by-turn directions, so you have a sense of what the next turn is like.
所以你可能在舞台上非常简短地看到了谷歌地图的体验。我想让你有机会感受一下今天的体验。你可以想象你正走在街上。如果你像直走一样抬头看，你会得到快速的转弯导航，这样你就知道下一个转弯是什么样的。
Lex Fridman
(02:00:48)
Whoa. Nice.
哇哦。不错。
Speaker 3
(02:01:05)
Keeping your phone in your pocket.
把手机放在口袋里。
Lex Fridman
(02:01:06)
Oh, that’s so intuitive.
哦，这太直观了。
Speaker 3
(02:01:07)
Sometimes you need that quick sense of which way’s the right way?
有时候你需要快速判断哪条路是对的？
Lex Fridman
(02:01:08)
Yeah. Sometimes.
是的。有时候。
Speaker 3
(02:01:14)
Yeah. So let’s say you’re coming out of Subway, getting out of a cab. You can just glance down at your feet. We have it set up to translate from Russian to English. I think I get to wear the glasses and you speak to me, if you don’t mind.
是的。假设你刚从地铁出来，或者刚下出租车。你可以低头看看你的脚下。我们设置了从俄语翻译成英语的功能。我想我可以戴上眼镜，然后你对我说话，如果你不介意的话。
Lex Fridman
(02:01:22)
I can speak Russian. [foreign language 02:01:27].
我会说俄语。[你好吗？ 02:01:27]。
Speaker 3
(02:01:29)
I’m doing well. How are you doing?
我很好。你好吗？
Lex Fridman
(02:01:30)
I’m tempted to swear, tempted to say inappropriate things. [foreign language 02:01:37].
我很想骂人，很想说些不恰当的话。[这太酷了。 02:01:37]。
Speaker 3
(02:01:41)
I see it transcribed in real time. And so obviously based on the different languages and the sequence of subjects and verbs, there’s a slight delay sometimes, but it’s really just like subtitles for the real world. Cool.
我看到它实时转录出来了。很明显，基于不同的语言以及主语和动词的顺序，有时会有一点延迟，但这真的就像现实世界的字幕一样。酷。
Biggest invention in human history
Lex Fridman
(02:01:53)
Thank you for this. All right, back to me. Hopefully watching videos of me having my mind blown like the apes in 2001 Space Odyssey playing with a monolith was somewhat interesting. Like I said, I was very impressed. And now I thought, if it’s okay, I could make a few additional comments about the episode and just in general. In this conversation with Sundar Pichai, I discussed the concept of the Neolithic package, which is the set of innovations that came along with the first agricultural revolution about 12,000 years ago, which included the formation of social hierarchies, the early primitive forms of government, labor specialization, domestication of plants and animals, early forms of trade, large scale cooperations of humans like that required to build, yes, the pyramids and temples like Göbekli Tepe. I think this may be the right way to actually talk about the inventions that changed human history, not just as a single invention, but as a kind of network of innovations and transformations that came along with it.
谢谢你。好了，回到我这里。希望观看我像《2001太空漫游》中玩弄巨石的猿猴一样大开眼界的视频多少有点意思。就像我说的，我印象非常深刻。现在我想，如果可以的话，我可以对这一集以及总体情况做一些补充评论。在与桑达尔·皮查伊的这次对话中，我讨论了“新石器时代组合”的概念，这是大约12000年前第一次农业革命带来的一系列创新，包括社会等级制度的形成、早期原始政府形式、劳动分工、动植物驯化、早期贸易形式，以及建造金字塔和像哥贝克力石阵这样的神庙所需的大规模人类合作。我认为这或许是讨论改变人类历史的发明的正确方式，不仅仅是作为单一发明，而是作为随之而来的一种创新与变革的网络。
(02:03:02)
And the productivity multiplier framework that I mentioned in the episode, I think is a nice way to try to concretize the impact of each of these inventions under consideration. And we have to remember that each node in the network of the fast follow-on inventions is in itself a productivity multiplier. Some are additive, some are multiplicative. So in some sense, the size of the network in the package is the thing that matters when you’re trying to rank the impact of inventions on human history. The easy picks for the period of biggest transformation, at least in sort of modern day discourse is the Industrial Revolution, or even in the 20th century, the computer or the internet. I think it’s because it’s easiest to intuit for modern day humans, the exponential impact of those technologies.
而我在节目中提到的生产力倍增器框架，我认为是尝试具体化我们正在考虑的每项发明影响的好方法。我们必须记住，快速后续发明网络中的每个节点本身就是一个生产力倍增器。有些是相加的，有些是相乘的。因此，在某种意义上，当你试图对发明对人类历史的影响进行排名时，组合中网络的规模才是关键。至少在现代的讨论中，最容易被选为最大变革时期的，是工业革命，或者甚至是20世纪的计算机或互联网。我认为这是因为现代人最容易直观地理解这些技术的指数级影响。
(02:04:05)
But recently, I suppose this changes week to week, but I have been doing a lot of reading on ancient human history. So recently my pick for the number one invention would have to be the first agricultural revolution, the Neolithic package that led to the formation of human civilizations. That’s what enabled the scaling of the collective intelligence machine of humanity, and for us to become the early bootloader for the next 10,000 years of technological progress, which yes, includes AI and the tech that builds on top of AI. And of course it could be argued that the word invention doesn’t properly apply to the agricultural revolution. I think actually Yuval Noah Harari argues that it wasn’t the humans who were the inventors, but a handful of plant species, namely wheat, rice and potatoes. This is strictly a fair perspective. But I’m having fun, like I said, with this discussion. Here, I just think of the entire earth as a system that continuously transforms. And I’m using the term invention in that context. Asking the question of when was the biggest leap on the log-scale plot of human progress?
但最近，我想这周与周不同，但我一直在大量阅读关于古代人类历史的书籍。所以最近我选出的第一大发明应该是第一次农业革命，即导致人类文明形成的新石器时代组合。正是它使得人类集体智慧机器得以扩展，并使我们成为未来10000年技术进步的早期引导程序，这当然包括人工智能以及建立在人工智能之上的技术。当然，有人可能会争辩说“发明”这个词并不完全适用于农业革命。实际上我认为尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利就认为发明者不是人类，而是一些植物物种，即小麦、水稻和土豆。严格来说，这是一个公平的观点。但正如我所说，我乐在其中地进行这场讨论。在这里，我只是将整个地球视为一个持续转变的系统。我是在这个背景下使用“发明”这个词的。提出这样一个问题：在人类进步的对数尺度图上，最大的飞跃发生在何时？
(02:05:23)
Will AI, AGI, ASI eventually take the number one spot on this ranking? I think it has a very good chance to do so due again to the size of the network of inventions that will come along with it. I think we discuss in this podcast the kind of things that would be included in the so-called AI package. But I think there’s a lot more possibilities, including discussed in previous podcasts and many previous podcasts, including with Dario Amodei, talking on the biological innovation side, the science progress side. And this podcast, I think we talk about something that I’m particularly excited about in the near term, which is unlocking the cognitive capacity of the entire landscape of brains that is the human species. Making it more accessible through education and through machine translation, making information, knowledge and the rapid learning and innovation process accessible to more humans, to the entire 8 billion, if you will. So I do think language or machine translation apply to all the different methods that we use on the internet to discover knowledge is a big unlock. But there are a lot of other stuff in the so-called AI package like discussed with Dario, curing all major human diseases. He really focuses on that in The Machines of Love and Grace essay. I think there will be huge leaps in productivity for human programmers and semi-autonomous human programmers. So humans in the loop, but most of the programming is done by AI agents. And then moving that towards a superhuman AI researcher that’s doing the research that develops and programs the AI system in itself. I think there’ll be huge transformative effects from autonomous vehicles. These are the things that we maybe don’t immediately understand, or we understand from an economics perspective, but there will be a point when AI systems are able to interpret, understand, interact with the human world to sufficient degree to where many of the manually controlled human in the loop systems we rely on become fully autonomous.
人工智能（AI）、通用人工智能（AGI）、超人工智能（ASI）最终会占据这个排名的第一位吗？我认为它很有可能做到这一点，同样是因为随之而来的发明网络的规模。我想我们在这次播客中讨论了所谓的“AI组合”可能包含哪些东西。但我认为还有更多的可能性，包括在之前的播客和许多以前的播客中讨论过的，包括与达里奥·阿莫迪（Dario Amodei）讨论的生物创新方面、科学进步方面。而在这次播客中，我认为我们谈到了一个我在近期特别兴奋的事情，那就是解锁人类物种整个大脑图景的认知能力。通过教育和机器翻译使其更容易获得，让信息、知识以及快速学习和创新过程能够惠及更多的人，惠及全部80亿人，如果你愿意这么说的话。所以我确实认为语言或机器翻译应用于我们在互联网上发现知识的所有不同方法是一个巨大的解锁。但所谓的“AI组合”中还有很多其他东西，比如与达里奥讨论过的，治愈所有主要的人类疾病。他在《爱与恩典的机器》一文中确实重点关注了这一点。我认为人类程序员和半自主人类程序员的生产力将会有巨大的飞跃。也就是人在回路中，但大部分编程工作由AI代理完成。然后将其推向一个超人类AI研究员，由它进行研究来开发和编程AI系统本身。我认为自动驾驶汽车将带来巨大的变革性影响。这些是我们可能不会立即理解的事情，或者我们从经济学角度理解，但将会有一个时刻，AI系统能够充分地解释、理解和与人类世界互动，以至于我们依赖的许多手动控制、人在回路中的系统变得完全自主。
(02:07:43)
And I think mobility is such a big part of human civilization that there will be effects on that, that they’re not just economic, but are social cultural and so on. And there’s a lot more things I could talk about for a long time. So obviously the integration utilization of AI in the creation of art, film, music, I think the digitalization and automating basic functions of government, and then integrating AI into that process, thereby decreasing corruption and costs and increasing transparency and efficiency. I think we as humans, individual humans, will continue to transition further and further into cyborgs. There’s already a AI in the loop of the human condition, and that will become increasingly so as AI becomes more powerful. The thing I’m obviously really excited about is major breakthroughs in science, and not just on the medical front but on fundamental physics, which would then lead to energy breakthroughs increasing the chance that we become, we actually become a Kardashev Type I civilization. And then enabling us in so doing to do interstellar exploration of space and colonization of space. I think there also in the near term, much like with the industrial revolution that led to rapid specialization of skills of expertise, there might be a great sort of de-specialization. So as the AI system become superhuman experts at particular fields, there might be greater and greater value to being the integrator of AIs for humans to be generalists. And so the great value of the human mind will come from the generalists, not the specialists. That’s a real possibility that that changes the way we are about the world, that we want to know a little bit of a lot of things and move about the world in that way. That could have when passing a certain threshold, a complete shift in who we are as a collective intelligence as a human species. Also as an aside, when thinking about the invention that was the greatest in human history, again for a bit of fun, we have to remember that all of them build on top of each other.
我认为出行是人类文明中如此重要的一部分，它将产生的影响不仅仅是经济上的，还有社会文化等方面的。还有很多我可以长时间谈论的事情。比如，显然，人工智能在艺术、电影、音乐创作中的整合利用；我认为政府基本职能的数字化和自动化，然后将人工智能整合到这个过程中，从而减少腐败和成本，增加透明度和效率。我认为我们作为人类个体，将继续越来越向“赛博格”（cyborgs）转变。人类的生存状态中已经有人工智能的参与，随着人工智能变得更加强大，这种情况会越来越普遍。我显然非常兴奋的是科学上的重大突破，不仅仅是在医学方面，还有基础物理学方面，这可能会带来能源突破，增加我们真正成为卡尔达肖夫I型文明的机会。然后，通过这样做，使我们能够进行星际太空探索和太空殖民。我还认为，在短期内，就像工业革命导致了专业技能的快速专门化一样，可能会出现一种大规模的“去专门化”。随着人工智能系统在特定领域成为超人类专家，对于人类来说，成为人工智能的整合者，成为通才，可能会具有越来越大的价值。因此，人类心智的巨大价值将来自通才，而不是专才。这确实是一种可能性，它会改变我们看待世界的方式，我们想要对很多事情都了解一点，并以这种方式在世界中活动。当越过某个阈值时，这可能会彻底改变我们作为一个集体智能、一个人类物种的本质。另外，顺便说一句，在思考人类历史上最伟大的发明时，同样是为了好玩，我们必须记住，所有这些发明都是相互叠加构建的。
(02:10:15)
And so we need to look at the Delta, the step change on the, I would say impossibly to perfectly measure plot of exponential human progress. Really we can go back to the entire history of life on earth. And a previous podcast guest, Nick Lane does a great job of this in his book Life Ascending, listing these 10 major inventions throughout the evolution of life on earth like DNA, photosynthesis, complex cells, sex, movement, sight, all those kinds of things. I forget the full list that’s on there. But I think that’s so far from the human experience that my intuition about, let’s say productivity multipliers of those particular inventions completely breaks down, and a different framework is needed to understand the impact of these inventions of evolution. The origin of life on Earth, or even the Big Bang itself of course is the OG invention that set the stage for all the rest of it. And there are probably many more turtles under that which are yet to be discovered.
因此，我们需要关注的是增量（Delta），是指数级人类进步图上的阶跃变化——我认为这个图是无法完美测量的。实际上，我们可以追溯到地球上生命的整个历史。之前的播客嘉宾尼克·莱恩（Nick Lane）在他的书《生命的选择》（Life Ascending）中出色地做到了这一点，列出了地球生命进化过程中的十大主要“发明”，如DNA、光合作用、复杂细胞、性、运动、视觉等等所有这些。我忘了完整的列表。但我认为这离人类的经验太遥远了，以至于我对这些特定发明的所谓生产力倍增器的直觉完全失效了，需要一个不同的框架来理解这些进化“发明”的影响。地球上生命的起源，甚至宇宙大爆炸本身，当然是为所有后续事物奠定基础的最初始的“发明”。在那之下可能还有更多层层叠叠的“乌龟”（turtles，指无限回溯的基础）有待发现。
(02:11:26)
So anyway, we live in interesting times, fellow humans. I do believe the set of positive trajectories for humanity outnumber the set of negative trajectories, but not by much. So let’s not mess this up. And now let me leave you with some words from French philosopher Jean de La Bruyère, “Out of difficulties, grow miracles.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
总之，人类同胞们，我们生活在一个有趣的时代。我确实相信，人类积极发展轨迹的数量超过了消极发展轨迹的数量，但优势不大。所以，让我们不要搞砸了。现在，让我引用法国哲学家让·德·拉布吕耶尔（Jean de La Bruyère）的一句话来结束：“奇迹生于困境。”（Out of difficulties, grow miracles.）感谢收听，希望下次再见。