2025-07-03 Luckin Coffee’s Price Magic: When Chinese Price Wars Hit Manhattan’s Cost Wall
A tale of two price tags, told across two continents.
两张价签的故事，在两个大陆之间讲述。
During my lunch break, I reflexively tap the familiar blue deer logo on my phone. A quick swipe, and boom — a 9.9 yuan coconut latte is ordered. Walking into the Luckin store, waiting for my coffee, my eyes drift to the paper menu on the wall. The same drink? 32 yuan.
午休时，我下意识在手机上点了熟悉的蓝色小鹿标志。轻轻一滑，砰——一杯 9.9 元的椰子拿铁就下单了。走进瑞幸门店，等咖啡时，我的目光落在墙上的纸质菜单上。是同一款饮品？32 元。
This isn’t unusual. Open any social media platform and you’ll find similar “pricing mysteries” everywhere: people posting screenshots of the same store, same coffee, different phones showing three wildly different prices — 9.9 yuan, 10.9 yuan, 13.9 yuan. One Beijing store even performed an “inverted drama” where pickup was 3.3 yuan more expensive than delivery.
这并不罕见。打开任何社交媒体平台，你都会看到类似的“定价之谜”：有人发布同一家店、同一杯咖啡、不同手机显示出三种截然不同价格的截图——9.9 元、10.9 元、13.9 元。北京有家门店甚至上演了“反向戏剧”，堂食比外卖贵了 3.3 元。
How exactly does Luckin orchestrate this elaborate “price magic”?
Luckin 究竟如何策划出这种精心编排的“价格魔术”？
Cut to June 30th, dawn on Manhattan’s Sixth Avenue. Young people clutch cups emblazoned with “Luck in New York,” crowding the sidewalk. The blue deer logo stands defiantly next to Starbucks’ familiar green circle. A Chinese student who just used a $1.99 first-order coupon for a coconut latte stands at the counter, finger still hovering over his phone screen. He glances at the wall menu — $6.45 (about 46 yuan) makes him freeze.
镜头切到 6 月 30 日，曼哈顿第六大道的黎明。年轻人手捧印着“Luckin in New York”的杯子，挤满人行道。蓝色的鹿标志在星巴克熟悉的绿色圆环旁傲然挺立。一位刚用 1.99 美元首单券换到椰子拿铁的中国学生站在柜台前，手指仍悬在手机屏幕上。他瞥了一眼墙上的菜单——6.45 美元（约 46 元）让他愣住了。
From Chinese street corners to New York sidewalks, Luckin’s “price magic” arrives with lightning-fast low-price offensives. But behind this magic, what stories are worth telling?
从中国街角到纽约人行道，Luckin 的“价格魔术”伴随着闪电般的低价攻势抵达。但在这魔术背后，又有哪些值得讲述的故事？
The Triple Game Behind “Dual Menus”: Psychology, Channels, and Costs
“双菜单”背后的三重博弈：心理、渠道与成本
Step into any Luckin store, and you’ll discover that the menu prices on the wall are never what you actually pay — they’re a carefully constructed psychological fog.
走进任何一家瑞幸门店，你会发现墙上的菜单价格从来不是你实际支付的价格——它们是精心构建的心理迷雾。
Behavioral economics has a term: “anchoring effect.” Luckin has mastered it. When you first see that 32 yuan price, your brain immediately locks this number as the coffee’s “normal value.” Then the mini-program pops up with a 9.9 yuan option, and suddenly, that massive gap hits you like a wave. It’s as if a voice whispers in your ear: “This cheap? You’d be crazy not to buy it.”
行为经济学有个术语叫“锚定效应”。瑞幸已经将其运用得炉火纯青。当你第一次看到那 32 元的价格，你的大脑会立刻把这个数字锁定为咖啡的“正常价值”。然后小程序弹出一个 9.9 元的选项，瞬间，这巨大的价差像海浪一样拍打过来。就好像有个声音在你耳边低语：“这么便宜？你要是不买都傻了。”
But this is just surface-level trickery. The deeper game lies in channel domestication. Luckin uses price differences as bait, gradually leading you into its digital kingdom. Mini-program orders don’t just eliminate counter service labor costs — they push self-pickup orders to over 75% of total orders. A single store’s labor expenses get compressed to 40% of Starbucks’, with efficiency that’s simply staggering.
但这只是表面的把戏。更深的玩法在于渠道驯化。瑞幸以价格差作为诱饵，逐步引导你进入它的数字王国。小程序订单不仅消除了柜台服务的人工成本——它们还将自提订单推高到超过总订单的 75%。单家门店的人工支出被压缩到星巴克的 40%，其效率令人惊叹。
咖啡是个上瘾性的产品，和算法结合可能是非常好的组合。
More brilliantly, every online order is like a seed planted in Luckin’s data field, slowly growing into user profiles containing over 200 tags — how much sugar you like, when you prefer your coffee, whether you’ll splurge on weekends. Nothing escapes its gaze.
更巧妙的是，每一笔线上订单都像在瑞幸的数据田里种下的一粒种子，慢慢长成包含 200 多个标签的用户画像——你喜欢多少糖，你什么时候偏爱喝咖啡，你是否会在周末大手笔消费。没有什么能逃过它的视线。
消费品领域的字节。
A Xi’an office worker discovered this logic firsthand: using her regular member account, a coconut latte cost 18.5 yuan, but switching to a newly registered phone showed the same drink for just 12 yuan. Loyal, high-frequency users became targets for “gentle price increases.”
一位西安的上班族亲身体会到了这种逻辑：用她常用的会员账号下单时，一杯椰子拿铁要 18.5 元，但换成新注册的手机号显示同样的饮品只要 12 元。忠诚且高频的用户就成了“温和提价”的对象。
In New York, this “dual menu” performance gets staged directly, just with a more jarring flavor. The $1.99 promotional price is a shining hook, app scan pricing is the bait to reel you in, and the $6.45 menu price is Luckin’s breathing room. Manhattan commercial rent is frighteningly expensive — averaging $659 per square foot annually. A coffee’s raw material costs are triple those in China. The $1.99 price doesn’t even cover half the ingredient costs.
在纽约，这种“双重菜单”表演被直接上演，只是味道更刺眼。1.99 美元的促销价是闪亮的诱饵，扫码下单的价格是钩住你的诱惑，而 6.45 美元的菜单价则是瑞幸的喘息空间。曼哈顿的商业租金高得令人恐惧——年均每平方英尺 659 美元。咖啡的原材料成本是中国的三倍。1.99 美元的价格甚至连原料成本的一半都覆盖不了。
Luckin attempts to copy-paste China’s “subsidy magic” to Starbucks’ home turf, but must hide two sets of logic on the menu: the pop-up cart’s low-price hawking is the opening act, app dynamic pricing is the transition, and wall prices are the reality it must face.
瑞幸试图将中国的“补贴魔术”复制粘贴到星巴克的主场，但必须在菜单上隐藏两套逻辑：快闪车的低价兜售是开场秀，APP 的动态定价是过渡，而门店标价则是它必须面对的现实。
In this game, psychological manipulation, channel efficiency, and cost pressure weave together into a web where Luckin moves with ease, yet walks a tightrope.
在这场博弈中，心理操控、渠道效率和成本压力交织成一张网，瑞幸在其中游刃有余，却也走在钢丝上。
The “Thousand People, Thousand Prices” System: Precision Harvesting Through Data
“千人千价”体系：通过数据实现精确收割
Luckin’s “price magic” works so smoothly because of a dynamic pricing system based on the RFM model (Recency, Frequency, Monetary). In China, getting three different prices on four phones isn’t mystical — it’s algorithms precisely “tailoring” behind the scenes.
瑞幸的“价格魔术”之所以运转顺畅，是因为基于 RFM 模型（Recency、Frequency、Monetary）的动态定价系统。在中国，用四部手机看到三种不同价格并非神秘——而是算法在背后精确“定制”。
New users and low-frequency customers receive “sweetness bombardment” with 0 yuan coupons or 9.9 yuan deals, because customer acquisition costs are factored into the marketing budget (Q1 2025 saw Luckin’s marketing spend jump 52.4% year-over-year). High-frequency regulars find fewer discounts because the system deems them “low price sensitivity” — they won’t leave. For long-absent silent users, 1.99 yuan “awakening coupons” get precisely delivered to lure them back.
新用户和低频用户会被 0 元券或 9.9 元优惠的“甜蜜轰炸”，因为获客成本被计入营销预算（2025 年第一季度瑞幸营销支出同比增长 52.4%）。高频常客则更少享受折扣，因为系统认为他们“价格敏感度低”——他们不会流失。对于久未活跃的沉默用户，1.99 元的“唤醒券”会被精准投放以吸引回流。
More absurdly, members get fleeced — people who paid for “Coffee Freedom Cards” become “fat sheep” in the algorithm’s eyes, often paying 1–2 yuan more per cup than regular users.
更荒谬的是，会员被宰——购买“咖啡自由卡”的人被算法视为“肥羊”，常常比普通用户每杯多付 1–2 元。
In New York, this system operates like precise clockwork. New customers opening the app find $0.99 first-cup coupons paired with TikTok lottery activities, creating efficient traffic loops. Silent accounts receive $1.99 awakening offers, recommending drinks based on past preferences. But a regular customer from Shanghai discovered the same coconut latte priced at 28 yuan in New York, simply because the system identified high frequency and high tolerance.
在纽约，这套系统运作得像精确的钟表。新用户打开应用会看到 0.99 美元的首杯优惠券，配合 TikTok 抽奖活动，形成高效的引流闭环。沉睡账户会收到 1.99 美元的唤醒优惠，根据过去偏好推荐饮品。但一位来自上海的常客发现，同样的椰子拿铁在纽约标价 28 元，仅仅因为系统识别出其高频次和高容忍度。
However, this reverse loyalty strategy encounters cultural resistance in the US market. American consumers are highly sensitive to price discrimination. Social media users have already dug up Luckin’s 2020 financial fraud scandal, questioning whether this is a new round of data games.
然而，这种反向忠诚度策略在美国市场遭遇文化阻力。美国消费者对价格歧视高度敏感。社交媒体用户已经扒出瑞幸 2020 年的财务造假丑闻，质疑这是否又一轮数据游戏。
In China, this algorithm helped Luckin surpass 3 billion cups sold. In New York, it’s like dancing on a tightrope — one wrong step could trigger a trust crisis.
在中国，这套算法帮助瑞幸超过 30 亿杯的销量。在纽约，这更像是在绷紧的钢丝上跳舞——一个失误就可能引发信任危机。
新用户促销的手段都在搞。
From “Data Fraud” to “Price Games”: Historical Lessons and Global Dilemmas
从“数据造假”到“价格游戏”：历史教训与全球困境
Luckin’s pricing techniques didn’t emerge from nowhere — they’re extensions of this company’s commercial DNA. In 2020, Muddy Waters’ short report hit like a heavy punch, exposing Luckin’s fabricated store sales (inflated by 69%-88%) and advertising expenditure scandals. Stock prices collapsed, eventually leading to delisting and restructuring.
瑞幸的定价手法并非凭空出现——它们是这家公司商业基因的延伸。2020 年，Muddy Waters 的做空报告如重拳出击，揭露了瑞幸伪造的门店销售额（被夸大了 69%–88%）和广告开支丑闻。股价崩盘，最终导致退市和重组。
Today, Luckin has shifted “data value” from illegal fraud to “price magic” on the edge of compliance. Past inflated sales were to paint pictures for capital; today’s 9.9 yuan educates the market. Past exaggerated ad spending was for attention; today’s 200+ user tags extract every cent of profit.
如今，瑞幸已将“数据价值”从非法欺诈转向处于合规边缘的“价格魔术”。过去被夸大的销售额是为了在资本面前作画；如今的 9.9 元是在教育市场。过去被夸大的广告支出是为了博取关注；如今的 200+用户标签是要榨取每一分钱利润。
The methods changed, but the core remains the same.
手段变了，但核心未变。
But this model is hitting dead ends in global markets. In New York, Manhattan’s high rent and triple costs make $1.99 pricing a castle in the air — barely covering half the ingredients. More troubling are regulatory shadows — China has “Internet Algorithm Recommendation Management Regulations” explicitly prohibiting “unreasonable differential treatment.” The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) is increasingly scrutinizing dynamic pricing.
但这种模式在全球市场正遇到死胡同。在纽约，曼哈顿高昂的房租和三重成本使得 1.99 美元的定价如空中楼阁——勉强只覆盖不到一半的原料成本。更令人担忧的是监管阴影——中国有《互联网算法推荐管理规定》明确禁止“不合理差别待遇”。美国联邦贸易委员会（FTC）也愈发审查动态定价。
Luckin’s “price magic” journey from Chinese streets to New York corners has evolved from innovative pioneer to dangerous edge-walker, one misstep from disaster.
瑞幸那场从中国街头到纽约街角的“价格魔术”之旅，已从创新先锋演变为危险的边缘行者，只需一步失误便可能酿成灾难。
The End of Price Wars: Chinese Paradox in New York’s Window
价格战的终结：纽约橱窗里的中国悖论
Behind Manhattan Sixth Avenue’s glass walls, Luckin attempts to perform two shows simultaneously. The front stage showcases “Chinese efficiency” — cashier-less counters, 30-second tea extraction machines, app traffic pools creating private domain empires. The backstage reveals “American costs” — reluctant compromises.
在曼哈顿第六大道的玻璃墙内，瑞幸试图同时上演两出戏。前台展示的是“中式效率”——无收银台柜台、30 秒出茶机、通过 APP 流量池打造的私域帝国。后台则暴露出“美式成本”——不得不做出的妥协。
The legendary 9.9 yuan myth must exit stage left. Coconut lattes get anchored at $6.45, approaching Starbucks territory. This split acts like a mirror, reflecting globalization’s brutal truth: Shanghai consumers still applaud “6.9 yuan price cuts” while New York’s $1.99 coffee cups contain sediment from Chinese supply chain subsidies and Wall Street capital’s triangular debt.
传奇的 9.9 元神话必须退场。椰子拿铁定价在 6.45 美元，逐步逼近星巴克的地盘。这种裂变像一面镜子，照出全球化的残酷真相：上海的消费者仍为“6.9 元降价”鼓掌，而纽约那杯 1.99 美元的咖啡里，则沉淀着中国供应链补贴与华尔街资本的三角债务。
However, Luckin isn’t without options. “Sauce-flavored Latte” selling 5.42 million cups in a single day proves consumers will pay for unique experiences, not just chase low prices. Starbucks’ “Gold Star members” with free upgrades and birthday treats demonstrate positive loyalty’s charm.
然而，瑞幸并非没有选择。“酱香拿铁”单日售出 542 万杯证明，消费者愿为独特体验买单，而不只是追逐低价。星巴克通过“金星会员”的免费升级和生日礼遇展示了积极忠诚度的魅力。
For Luckin to break through, it needs to shift from algorithmic games to stable quality and continuous innovation — launching regional flavors or eco-friendly drinks, paired with genuinely rewarding member programs. This wouldn’t just stabilize trust but reduce user churn when subsidies recede and prices rise.
要让瑞幸突围，它需要从算法博弈转向稳定的品质与持续的创新——推出区域风味或环保饮品，并配套真正有吸引力的会员计划。这不仅能稳定信任，还能在补贴退潮、价格上升时降低用户流失。
这不是美国人专有的做法，前人成功的路径不是唯一的路径。
After the Magic Show: Lingering Aftertastes
魔术表演之后：挥之不去的余味
Walking out of the New York flagship store, a blonde girl waves her phone, laughing: “This $1.99 Eastern magic — can I still get it tomorrow?” The staff member just smiles without responding, while the $6.45 price tag lies quietly in the morning light behind them.
走出纽约旗舰店，一个金发女孩挥着手机，笑着说：“这款 1.99 美元的东方魔法——明天我还能买到吗？”店员只是微笑不语，而 6.45 美元的价签则静静地在晨光中躺在他们身后。
From Beijing to New York, Luckin’s magic techniques remain consistent: using anchor pricing to build cognitive mazes, dynamic pricing to dig moats, and data to tame loyal customers. But when this magic lands in mature markets, New Yorkers’ rational gaze and strict regulations become revealing mirrors, leaving nowhere to hide.
从北京到纽约，瑞幸的魔法手法始终如一：用锚定定价构建认知迷宫，用动态定价挖护城河，用数据驯服忠实顾客。但当这种魔法落在成熟市场时，纽约人理性的目光和严苛的监管成了照妖镜，令其无处遁形。
When subsidy tides recede and the $1.99 magic fades, can Luckin rely on fresh-brewed tea aromas rather than numerical tricks to make Manhattan willingly pay $6.45?
当补贴潮退、1.99 美元的魔法褪色，瑞幸能否依靠现泡茶香而非数字把戏，让曼哈顿的人甘愿掏出 6.45 美元？
The answer might lie in a Shanghai office worker’s social media post: “Drank Luckin for three years, accumulated tons of points, discovered today that new customer prices are 5 yuan lower than member prices.”
答案可能藏在一位上海白领的社交媒体帖子里：“喝了瑞幸三年，攒了很多积分，今天发现新客价比会员价还便宜 5 元。”
When “magic” gets exposed, trust cools faster than coffee.
当“魔法”被戳破，信任消散得比咖啡凉得还快。
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