Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) Q2 2025 Earnings Conference Call August 7, 2025 1:00 PM ET
Company Participants
Kenneth Dillon - Senior VP and President of International Oil & Gas Operations
R. Jordan Tanner - Vice President of Investor Relations
Richard A. Jackson - Senior VP and President of Operations—U.S. Onshore Resources & Carbon Management
Sunil Mathew - Senior VP & CFO
Vicki A. Hollub - President, CEO & Director
Conference Call Participants
Arun Jayaram - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
Douglas George Blyth Leggate - Wolfe Research, LLC
Kevin Moreland MacCurdy - Unidentified Company
Pickering Energy Partners Insights - Unidentified Company
Matthew Merrel Portillo - Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities, LLC, Research Division
Neil Singhvi Mehta - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Nitin Kumar - Mizuho Securities USA LLC, Research Division
Scott Andrew Gruber - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
Wei Jiang - Barclays Bank PLC, Research Division
Yim Chuen Cheng - Scotiabank Global Banking and Markets, Research Division
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to Occidental's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. \[Operator Instructions] Please note, this event is being recorded.
各位下午好，欢迎参加Occidental 2025年第二季度业绩电话会议。\[操作提示] 请注意，本次会议正在录音。
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jordan Tanner, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
现在我将会议交给投资者关系副总裁Jordan Tanner，请开始。
R. Jordan Tanner
Thank you, Drew. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for participating in Occidental's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with us today are Vicki Hollub, President and Chief Executive Officer; Sunil Mathew, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; Richard Jackson, President Operations, U.S. Onshore Resources and Carbon Management; and Ken Dillon, Senior Vice President and President, International Oil and Gas Operations.
谢谢你，Drew。各位下午好，感谢大家参加Occidental 2025年第二季度业绩电话会议。今天与我们一同出席的有：总裁兼首席执行官Vicki Hollub；高级副总裁兼首席财务官Sunil Mathew；美国陆上资源与碳管理业务总裁Richard Jackson；以及高级副总裁兼国际油气业务总裁Ken Dillon。
This afternoon, we will refer to slides available on the Investors section of our website. The presentation includes a cautionary statement on Slide 2 regarding forward-looking statements that will be made on the call this afternoon. We'll also reference a few non- GAAP financial measures today. Reconciliations to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure can be found in the schedules to our earnings release and on our website.
今天下午我们将会使用公司网站投资者专区上提供的演示文稿。演示文稿第2页包含关于本次电话会议中所涉及前瞻性声明的免责声明。我们今天还会提到一些非GAAP财务指标，与最接近的GAAP指标的调节表可以在我们的业绩公告附表以及公司网站上找到。
I'll now turn the call over to Vicki.
现在我将电话交给Vicki。
Vicki A. Hollub
Thank you, Jordan, and good afternoon, everyone. I'd like to first thank our teams for another quarter of strong performance, delivering \$2.6 billion of operating cash flow in the second quarter. This helps to generate more operating cash flow in the first half of 2025 than we did in the first half of 2024, despite much lower oil prices in the first half of 2025. In fact, WTI averaged \$11 per barrel lower in the first half of 2025. And for reference, those cash flows are talking about cash flows before working capital.
谢谢你，Jordan，各位下午好。首先我要感谢我们的团队再次交出一个强劲的季度业绩，第二季度实现了26亿美元的经营现金流。这使得我们在2025年上半年创造的经营现金流超过了2024年上半年，尽管2025年上半年的油价要低得多。事实上，2025年上半年WTI均价比去年同期低了11美元/桶。这里提到的现金流是指营运资金变动前的现金流。
Next, I'd like to congratulate our teams for their ability to optimize our portfolio in a way that strengthens our future development plans while creating divestment opportunities that along with cash flow made it possible for us to repay \$7.5 billion of debt and less than a year from closing the CrownRock acquisition, that's well ahead of target. This equates to almost a 70% reduction of the debt raised for the acquisition.
接下来，我要祝贺我们的团队，他们优化了投资组合，既强化了未来的发展规划，又创造了资产剥离的机会。结合现金流，这使我们能够在完成CrownRock收购不到一年内偿还75亿美元的债务，远远快于目标。这相当于削减了此次收购融资债务的近70%。
Also, I'm pleased to report that STRATOS has achieved a significant milestone, and we're on track to start capturing CO2 this year. This timing is perfect as there is growing momentum behind Direct Air Capture to generate meaningful value from CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery or EOR, and Carbon Dioxide Removal credits or CDRs.
此外，我很高兴地报告，STRATOS项目已取得重要里程碑，我们有望在今年启动CO₂捕集。这个时机非常合适，因为Direct Air Capture背后的势头正在增强，它能够通过CO₂增强采油（EOR）和碳移除信用（CDRs）创造实质性的价值。
Before I turn the call over to Sunil, I'll now provide a little more detail on operations, debt reduction and STRATOS. In the second quarter, our oil and gas business produced 1.4 million BOE per day, exceeding the midpoint of our production guidance. This reflects both the operational strength of our teams and the caliber of our diverse portfolio, with outperformance in the Rockies and an uplift to our Oman volumes due to the Mukhaizna contract extension, more than offsetting production impacts primarily due to third-party constraints in the Gulf of America.
在把电话交给Sunil之前，我想先详细说明一下运营、减债以及STRATOS的情况。第二季度，我们的油气业务日产量达140万桶油当量，超过了产量指引的中值。这既体现了团队的运营能力，也展现了多元化资产组合的优势，其中落基山地区的超预期表现，以及因Mukhaizna合同延期带来的阿曼产量提升，足以抵消美国湾区因第三方限制而造成的产量影响。
Back to cash flow generation. Despite much lower oil prices, the teams achieved higher CFO or cash flow from operations this year versus the same period last year, due in part to the additional production from CrownRock as well as some production growth from legacy Oxy. But important to note is that our oil and gas teams were able to achieve enough operating cost reductions to offset the operating costs associated with the incremental 180,000 BOE per day of production.
回到现金流生成。尽管油价大幅下降，我们的团队今年仍实现了比去年同期更高的经营现金流（CFO），部分原因是CrownRock带来的新增产量，以及Oxy原有资产的一些产量增长。但重要的是，我们的油气团队通过充足的运营成本削减，抵消了日增产18万桶油当量所带来的额外运营费用。
In other words, despite oil production rates of 1.395 million BOE per day in the first half of this year versus 1.215 Million Barrels of Oil Equivalent per day in the first half of 2024 absolute operating cost in those 2 periods were essentially the same.
换句话说，今年上半年日产量为139.5万桶油当量，而2024年上半年为121.5万桶油当量，但这两个时期的绝对运营成本基本相同。
I'll highlight some of those activities that have contributed to reductions in our total cost structure. In our onshore U.S. operations, we announced in our first quarter earnings call, \$150 million in expected operating cost savings this year through significant cost reductions.
我想强调一些有助于降低整体成本结构的举措。在美国陆上业务中，我们在第一季度业绩电话会上宣布，预计今年将通过大幅削减成本，实现1.5亿美元的运营费用节省。
As I just highlighted, holding absolute cost level with increased production resulted in a meaningful reduction of per barrel cost to \$8.55. By integrating automation, field sensors and artificial intelligence to prioritize lease operating routes, we have transitioned approximately 40% of our onshore production to ruthless operations. And in our EOR business, increased field interconnectivity has enabled us to optimize our use of recycled CO2 and advanced subsurface modeling has helped to improve the effectiveness of each molecule we inject thus enabling us to reduce our purchased CO2 volumes.
正如我刚才强调的，在保持绝对成本水平不变的同时增加产量，使得单位桶成本显著下降至8.55美元。通过整合自动化、现场传感器和人工智能来优化租赁运营路线，我们已将约40%的陆上产量转变为无人值守运行。而在EOR业务中，增强的油田互联性使我们能够优化再循环CO₂的使用；先进的地下模型则帮助提高每一分子注入气体的效果，从而减少了对外购CO₂的需求。
In our international operations, we have implemented similar efficiencies to reduce CapEx -- I'm sorry, OpEx for the year by an estimated \$50 million. We are confident in the sustainability of these cost reductions as the majority are structural in nature. Across the Permian, our teams have consistently driven down well costs through enhanced efficiencies, enabling us to reduce the midpoint of our capital guidance by an additional \$100 million this quarter.
在国际业务中，我们采取了类似的效率措施，预计全年可减少约5000万美元的运营费用（抱歉，不是资本开支）。我们相信这些成本削减的可持续性，因为大多数属于结构性改善。在二叠纪盆地，我们的团队通过效率提升持续降低钻井成本，使我们在本季度将资本开支指引的中值再下调1亿美元。
In the Delaware Basin, drilling times have improved by 20%, bringing well cost below our 2025 target. Meanwhile, in the Midland Basin, our best of the best workshops have facilitated the rapid sharing of valuable well design and operational insights across the organization, yielding impressive results. In the first half of this year, well costs for both our legacy Midland Basin assets and our CrownRock assets were lower than the expectations we set earlier this year.
在Delaware盆地，钻井时间缩短了20%，使井成本低于我们2025年的目标。同时，在Midland盆地，我们的“最佳实践”研讨会促进了全公司范围内钻井设计和运营经验的快速分享，取得了显著成效。今年上半年，无论是Midland盆地的原有资产还是CrownRock资产，其井成本均低于我们年初设定的预期。
Collectively, these advancements have resulted in a 13% reduction in year-to-date Permian unconventional well costs compared to 2024.
总体而言，这些进步使得截至目前二叠纪非常规井的成本较2024年下降了13%。
The capital efficiencies, along with continued improvements in recoveries have yielded robust economics from secondary benches and has helped to sustain year-on-year improvements in our capital intensity.
资本效率的提升，加上采收率的持续改善，使得二级储层项目展现出强劲的经济性，并帮助我们实现资本强度的逐年改善。
We also delivered strong well performance offshore. I'd like to highlight 2 recent standout wells in the Gulf of America with one of the best at Horn Mountain in 22 years and the best at Caesar Tonga in 13 years. Both are on production down and ramping up through the end of the year. This is due to the success of our subsurface engineering and the resource potential across our existing fields, which will be enhanced by future water flooding that will unlock significant value going forward.
我们在海上也交出了强劲的井口表现。我想特别强调美国湾区最近的两口表现突出的油井：一口是Horn Mountain油田22年来最好的井，另一口是Caesar Tonga油田13年来最好的井。这两口井已经投产，并将在年底前逐步提产。这得益于我们地下工程的成功以及现有油田的资源潜力，而未来的注水开发将进一步释放巨大的价值。
Our Midstream and Marketing Segment had another impressive quarter, generating positive earnings on an adjusted basis and outperforming the high end of guidance. This was largely due to improved crude marketing margins, gas marketing optimization and higher sulfur pricing. We also benefited from new oil transportation contracts that began during the second quarter.
我们的中游与市场部门在本季度再度表现出色，经调整后的盈利为正，并超越了指引的高端。这主要得益于原油营销利润的改善、天然气市场优化以及硫价上涨。我们还受益于第二季度开始的新原油运输合同。
Turning now to low quarter -- Low Carbon Ventures business. In just 2 years since groundbreaking, STRATOS has achieved a significant milestone with Trains 1 & 2 now moving over to operations. We've commenced wet commissioning with water circulation and are on track to start capturing CO2 this year. We are immensely proud of the achievements to date and the exceptional record of safety performance as we advance towards commercial startup.
接下来谈谈低碳业务。自开工仅两年，STRATOS已取得重大里程碑，1号和2号装置已转入运营阶段。我们已启动带水循环的湿调试，并按计划将在今年开始捕集CO₂。对于迄今取得的成就，以及在推进商业化启动过程中创造的卓越安全纪录，我们感到无比自豪。
As I've shared in the past, we see immense value from taking a phased approach to STRATOS development. Even though this is a first-of-its-kind facility at this scale, we're already benefiting from continuous evaluation and learnings along the way. For example, we've been able to capture lessons from commissioning as we move into operations and are incorporating the latest R\&D out of our Carbon Engineering Innovation Centre into Phase 2. Not only will this improve the project's economics when the full capacity is online, but it will accelerate the cost down curve for future DAC projects.
正如我过去分享过的，我们认为采用分阶段推进STRATOS开发的方式价值巨大。尽管这是一座同类首创的大规模设施，但我们已经从持续的评估与实践中获益。例如，我们在转入运营的过程中汲取了调试经验，并将Carbon Engineering创新中心的最新研发成果纳入到第二阶段。这不仅会在满产上线时改善项目的经济性，还将加速未来DAC项目的成本下降曲线。
Since the first quarter, we signed 2 additional commercial agreements for carbon dioxide removal cells with JPMorgan and Palo Alto Networks. The majority of volumes through 2030 from STRATOS are now contracted, demonstrating the strength of the growing CDR market and increasing appetite for durable carbon removal technologies.
自第一季度以来，我们又与JPMorgan和Palo Alto Networks签署了两份碳移除单元的商业协议。截至2030年的大部分STRATOS产能已经被合同锁定，这体现了不断增长的CDR市场的强劲需求，以及对耐久性碳移除技术日益增长的兴趣。
We also announced an agreement to evaluate a potential joint venture to develop a DAC facility in South Texas with XRG, which is the UAE's investment company and gas, chemicals, and low carbon energy solutions. Agreements like this, along with the U.S. Department of Energy, support and highlight Oxy's unique capabilities and signal confidence in DAC as an investable technology to provide both high integrity carbon removal and support energy development through Enhanced Oil Recovery in the United States.
我们还宣布签署了一项协议，与阿联酋的投资公司XRG合作评估在德克萨斯州南部开发DAC设施的潜在合资企业。像这样的协议，以及美国能源部的支持，凸显了Oxy的独特能力，并表明市场对DAC作为可投资技术的信心。DAC不仅能提供高完整性的碳移除，还能通过增强采油（EOR）支持美国的能源发展。
The recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill included a number of provisions that will help Oxy continue to deliver differential value to our shareholders. One of these is the extension and expansion of the 45Q credit driven by the recognition of the need to capture CO2 for use in EOR to support U.S. energy security.
最近颁布的《One Big Beautiful Bill》包含多项条款，将帮助Oxy继续为股东创造差异化价值。其中之一是延长并扩大45Q税收抵免，这反映了市场对捕集CO₂并用于EOR以支持美国能源安全的需求认同。
The new law levels the playing field between carbon storage and utilization pathways like DAC to EOR. Both can and likely will play an important role across global energy supply chains and carbon management. We believe that carbon capture in DAC in particular, will be instrumental in shaping the future energy landscape.
新法律使碳封存与利用路径（如DAC到EOR）之间处于同一起跑线。两者都能够并可能在全球能源供应链和碳管理中发挥重要作用。我们相信，尤其是DAC中的碳捕集，将在塑造未来能源格局中发挥关键作用。
First, captured CO2 can be used for Enhanced Oil Recovery in conventional and shale reservoirs. We believe this proven technology could recover an additional 50 billion to 70 billion barrels of oil in the United States, which could extend our energy independence by 10 years.
首先，被捕集的CO₂可以用于常规和页岩油藏的增强采油。我们认为，这一成熟的技术可额外回收美国500亿至700亿桶石油，从而将美国的能源独立延长10年。
Second, CO2 removed from the atmosphere via DAC can be used today to address submissions related to products or services, specifically CDRs from DAC can be paired with any fuel or energy source to provide a low-cost, scalable solution for growing low carbon intensity fuel conventional or energy markets.
其次，通过DAC从大气中移除的CO₂可用于应对与产品或服务相关的排放，特别是来自DAC的CDRs，可以与任何燃料或能源形式配对，为低碳燃料或能源市场的增长提供一种低成本、可规模化的解决方案。
Oxy is uniquely positioned to deliver both through our leadership in DAC technology, sequestration and EOR operations. We have over 50 years of experience in carbon management and nearly 3 billion barrels of Permian EOR conventional resources along with extensive CO2 infrastructure in the Permian. In addition, we have our expanded U.S. unconventional runway and our well-positioned sequestration hubs.
Oxy凭借在DAC技术、封存及EOR运营方面的领先地位，具备独特的优势来实现双重目标。我们在碳管理方面拥有超过50年的经验，在二叠纪拥有近30亿桶的EOR常规资源储量，以及完善的CO₂基础设施。此外，我们还拥有扩展的美国非常规产能储备和布局合理的封存枢纽。
As the largest acreage holder in the Permian, we have the scale, along with the ability to add secondary benches and EOR to provide lower emission barrels and further support U.S. energy security.
作为二叠纪最大的土地持有者，我们不仅具备规模优势，还能够通过二级储层开发和EOR，提供更低排放的原油，从而进一步支持美国的能源安全。
Before turning to Sunil, I'd like to highlight the recent success of our portfolio high-grading efforts. Since the end of the first quarter, we announced \$950 million of additional divestitures, selling non-core largely non-operated assets in our U.S. onshore business. This brings our total of announced divestitures to nearly \$4 billion since January of 2024, enabling us to accelerate our debt repayments and improve our balance sheet.
在把话交给Sunil之前，我想强调我们近期在投资组合优化方面取得的成功。自第一季度末以来，我们宣布了9.5亿美元的额外资产剥离，出售了美国陆上业务中的非核心、主要是非运营资产。自2024年1月以来，我们宣布的资产剥离总额接近40亿美元，这使我们能够加快偿债步伐并改善资产负债表。
Through our high-grading efforts, we have strengthened our portfolio, divesting assets with limited near-term opportunities and growing our inventory of competitive high-margin opportunities.
通过优化投资组合，我们强化了资产结构，剥离了短期机会有限的资产，并扩大了竞争力强、利润率高的项目储备。
We have seen tremendous success so far across our CrownRock acreage, realizing significant improvements in well cost and efficiencies, and it keeps getting better. We expect value creation to expand as we continue to harness cross operational synergies throughout our Permian operations.
迄今为止，我们在CrownRock区块取得了巨大成功，井成本和效率均实现了显著改善，并且仍在持续优化。我们预计，随着在二叠纪业务中不断发挥跨业务协同效应，价值创造将进一步扩大。
I'll now hand the call over to Sunil to review our financial performance and discuss our second half guidance in more detail.
现在我将把电话交给Sunil，请他回顾财务表现并更详细地讨论下半年指引。
Sunil Mathew
Thank you, Vicki. In the second quarter, we generated an adjusted profit of \$0.39 per diluted share and a reported profit of \$0.26 per \[Audio Gap] investment income, partially offset by positive mark-to-market adjustments. Strong operational performance and the continued focus on capital efficiencies, enabled us to generate approximately \$700 million in free cash flow before working capital despite lower realized oil prices and high market volatility.
谢谢你，Vicki。第二季度，我们实现了每股摊薄收益0.39美元的调整后利润，以及0.26美元的报告利润（音频缺失）投资收益，部分被正向的市值调整所抵消。强劲的运营表现和持续关注资本效率，使我们在实际油价较低、市场波动较大的情况下，仍然在营运资金变动前创造了约7亿美元的自由现金流。
We had a positive working capital change primarily driven by reductions in commodity prices, fewer battle shipments on the water and lower interest payments, which is typical for the second and fourth quarters. These impacts were partially offset by a \$110 million tax payment related to 2024. After warrant proceeds and debt repayments, we exited the quarter with approximately \$2.3 billion of unrestricted cash on the balance sheet.
我们的营运资金变动为正，主要得益于商品价格下降、海运货物减少以及较低的利息支付，这些在第二和第四季度较为常见。这些积极因素部分被与2024年相关的1.1亿美元税款所抵消。在认股权收益和偿还债务之后，本季度末我们资产负债表上拥有约23亿美元的无限制现金。
Our effective tax rate increased in the second quarter due to a shift in the jurisdictional mix of income driven by lower anticipated full year oil prices compared to original expectations. We are guiding to an adjusted effective tax rate of approximately 32% for the third quarter with our full year effective tax rate in a similar range based on current commodity prices.
由于全年预期油价低于原先预期，导致收益在不同司法管辖区的分布发生变化，我们的第二季度实际税率上升。我们预计第三季度的调整后实际税率约为32%，全年实际税率将在类似区间，基于当前的商品价格。
Our strong operational and financial performance can largely be attributed to higher volumes across our U.S. onshore and international portfolio, offsetting lower-than-expected production out of the Gulf of America. New well and base production outperformance in the Rockies and the net production uplift in Oman from the Mukhaizna contract extension, enabled us to outperform the Midpoint of Guidance.
我们强劲的运营和财务表现，主要得益于美国陆上和国际业务产量的增加，从而抵消了美国湾区产量低于预期的影响。落基山地区新井与基础产量的超预期表现，以及Mukhaizna合同延期带来的阿曼净产量提升，使我们超过了指引中值。
Our domestic lease operating expense in the second quarter notably outperformed guidance at \$8.55 per barrel. This outperformance was due in large part to early success in delivering U.S. onshore operating cost improvements plus timing impacts of offshore production engineering work shifting from the second to third quarter.
我们第二季度的美国陆上租赁运营成本显著好于指引，达到每桶8.55美元。这主要归功于我们在美国陆上运营成本改善上的早期成功，以及部分海上生产工程工作由第二季度推迟到第三季度的时间影响。
As Vicki shared, this reflects our commitment to achieving operational efficiencies and continuous improvement with notable savings realized in the Permian. Looking ahead, the outlook for the second half of the year remains strong. In the third quarter, we expect our total company production range to increase to 1.42 million to 1.46 million BOE per day as we sustain operational momentum and anticipate higher volumes in all of our main operating areas.
正如Vicki所说，这反映了我们在实现运营效率和持续改进方面的承诺，并在二叠纪取得了显著节省。展望下半年，前景依然强劲。第三季度，我们预计公司总产量将在每日142万至146万桶油当量之间，随着运营势头的保持，我们预期在所有主要运营区域产量都会提升。
Though we expect a quarter-on-quarter increase in produced volumes in the Gulf of America, the recent curtailments and the shift in program timing will have lingering effects prompting a reduction in our offshore second half production guidance. We are maintaining total company production guidance for the year as a stronger outlook on new well and base performance across our U.S. onshore assets and increased production in Oman from our Mukhaizna contract extension are expected to offset lower volumes in the Gulf of America. This modified production mix is expected to slightly reduce annual total company oil cuts.
尽管我们预计美国湾区的产量环比将增加，但近期的限产和计划调整将产生持续影响，因此我们下调了下半年海上产量指引。我们维持全年公司总产量指引，因为美国陆上资产的新井和基础产量表现更强劲，以及Mukhaizna合同延期带来的阿曼产量提升，预计将抵消美国湾区的较低产量。这一调整后的产量组合预计会轻微降低公司全年原油比例。
As Vicki said, our Midstream & Marketing segment performed exceptionally well in the second quarter, generating positive earnings on an adjusted basis of approximately \$206 million above the midpoint of guidance. This was largely driven by enhanced crude marketing margins due to timing impacts of cargo sales and fluctuations in commodity prices.
正如Vicki所说，我们的中游与市场部门在第二季度表现异常出色，经调整后的盈利约为2.06亿美元，高于指引中值。这主要得益于原油销售利润的提升，原因包括货物销售时机和商品价格波动。
We also benefited from gas marketing optimization and higher sulfur prices at Al Hosn during the quarter. Given the strong second quarter performance, we have raised full year Midstream & Marketing Guidance by \$85 million. We anticipate a more muted third quarter, assuming the Waha to Gulf Coast natural gas spread continues to narrow and we'll be prepared for any marketing optimization opportunities as they arrive.
本季度我们还受益于天然气市场优化以及Al Hosn的硫价上涨。鉴于第二季度的强劲表现，我们将全年中游与市场指引上调了8500万美元。我们预计第三季度会相对平稳，假设Waha至墨西哥湾沿岸的天然气价差继续收窄，我们将随时准备把握任何营销优化的机会。
Our second quarter OxyChem pre-tax income came in below guidance due to weaker-than-anticipated pricing for caustic and PVC. Demand held firm, but excess supply in both the global and domestic markets compressed margins. While the domestic PVC demand is typically the strongest in the third quarter, it is not expected to be strong enough to offset the oversupply in the market. Based on these market conditions, we are lowering OxyChem's full year guidance range to \$800 million to \$900 million.
我们第二季度OxyChem的税前收入低于指引，原因是烧碱和PVC价格低于预期。需求保持稳定，但全球和国内市场的过剩供应压缩了利润率。虽然国内PVC需求通常在第三季度最强劲，但预计不足以抵消市场的过剩供应。基于这些市场条件，我们将OxyChem的全年指引下调至8亿至9亿美元。
Turning now to our capital program. We expect the remaining 2025 capital spend to be more weighted to the third quarter due to the timing of oil and gas activities and the construction schedule for the battleground expansion. Continued momentum in operational efficiencies across our Permian assets has enabled us to further reduce our 2025 capital guidance range by \$100 million without impacting total company production.
接下来谈谈资本支出计划。我们预计2025年剩余的资本支出将更多集中在第三季度，这与油气活动的时间安排和battleground扩建项目的施工进度有关。二叠纪资产的运营效率持续改善，使我们能够在不影响公司总产量的情况下，将2025年资本支出指引区间再下调1亿美元。
Together with the \$50 million in operating cost reductions from our international assets and the cost reductions of \$350 million announced in May, we now expect \$500 million in total reductions relative to the original plan.
加上来自国际资产的5000万美元运营成本削减，以及我们在5月宣布的3.5亿美元削减，我们现在预计相较于原计划总共减少5亿美元。
In the first quarter earnings call, we highlighted several key non-oil and gas items contributing to incremental pretax free cash flow in 2026. Another impactful driver is the recent passing of the One Big Beautiful Bill. In addition to the benefits Vicki highlighted, from the preservation of 45Q credits and \[indiscernible] the bill will provide significant cash tax benefits to Oxy for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 relative to prior law.
在第一季度业绩电话会上，我们强调了几项关键的非油气因素将推动2026年的税前自由现金流增长。另一个重要因素是近期通过的《One Big Beautiful Bill》。除了Vicki强调的45Q税收抵免的保留和（音频缺失）外，该法案还将在2025年和2026年相较于之前的法律，为Oxy带来显著的现金税收优惠。
Based on our preliminary assessment, we estimate a potential \$700 million to \$800 million reduction in cash taxes with roughly 35% expected to be realized in 2025 and the remainder in 2026. These benefits are primarily due to changes to bonus depreciation, R\&D expensing and limitations on interest deductibility.
基于我们的初步评估，我们预计现金税负可能减少7亿至8亿美元，其中约35%将在2025年实现，剩余部分在2026年实现。这些优惠主要源于额外折旧、研发费用化以及利息扣除限制的变化。
Before I close, I would like to provide an update on our strengthening financial position. As Vicki shared, our portfolio high-grading efforts are progressing with the announcement of \$950 million of additional divestitures since the end of the first quarter. Of this, \$370 million as closed and we expect the remaining \$580 million to close in the third quarter. This brings the total of announced divestitures to nearly \$4 billion since the first quarter of 2024.
在结束前，我想更新一下我们日益稳健的财务状况。正如Vicki所分享的，我们的投资组合优化工作正在推进，自第一季度末以来已宣布9.5亿美元的额外资产剥离，其中3.7亿美元已完成，预计剩余的5.8亿美元将在第三季度完成。自2024年第一季度以来，宣布的资产剥离总额已接近40亿美元。
The success of our divestiture program to date, coupled with warrant proceeds and strong free cash flow have enabled us to be ahead of the schedule on the debt reduction targets outlined when we announced the CrownRock acquisition. In the last 13 months, we repaid approximately \$7.5 billion of debt, far exceeding our near-term goal of paying down \$4.5 billion of debt within 12 months of closing the CrownRock acquisition. This reduces annual interest expense by approximately \$410 million and also results in a much more manageable debt maturity profile.
迄今为止，我们的资产剥离计划非常成功，再加上认股权收益和强劲的自由现金流，使我们在CrownRock收购宣布时设定的减债目标上大幅超前。在过去13个月中，我们偿还了约75亿美元的债务，远超在收购CrownRock完成后12个月内偿还45亿美元的近期目标。这使年度利息支出减少约4.1亿美元，同时也使债务到期结构更加可控。
We are extremely pleased with the progress of our divestiture program and the trajectory of our debt reduction plans. Together with recent step changes in operational efficiency and key non-oil and gas catalysts, our continued focus on strengthening the balance sheet will support a stronger foundation for delivering long-term shareholder value.
我们对资产剥离计划的进展以及减债计划的轨迹感到非常满意。结合近期在运营效率方面的跨越式进展和关键的非油气驱动因素，我们持续聚焦于强化资产负债表，这将为长期股东价值的实现奠定更加坚实的基础。
I will now turn the call back over to Vicki.
现在我将把电话交还给Vicki。
Vicki A. Hollub
Thank you, Sunil. To close, I'd like to reiterate the strength of our upstream portfolio. I believe we have built Oxy's best-ever portfolio of high-quality complementary assets. These are a diversified mix of short-cycle, high-return unconventional assets along with lower decline, solid return conventional reservoirs. And we have the best talent and capabilities in our history and with our team's continued focus on performance and innovation, enabling us to deliver outstanding results and to position us for the future.
谢谢你，Sunil。最后，我想再次强调我们上游资产组合的实力。我相信我们已经建立了Oxy有史以来最好的高质量互补资产组合。这包括多元化的短周期、高回报的非常规资产，以及低递减率、稳定回报的常规油藏。我们还拥有历史上最优秀的人才和能力，团队持续聚焦于绩效和创新，这使我们能够交付卓越成果，并为未来奠定基础。
We have an incredible runway in front of us with over 14 billion barrels in total resources, much of which is well suited for EOR application. Our industry-leading experience in carbon management and EOR operations is a key differentiator for Oxy and will enable us to unlock additional resources and deliver long-term value for our shareholders. With that, we'll now open the call for questions. As Jordan mentioned, Richard Jackson and Ken Dillon are here with us today for the Q\&A session.
我们面前有一个令人难以置信的发展跑道，总资源超过140亿桶，其中很大一部分非常适合EOR应用。我们在碳管理和EOR运营方面的行业领先经验，是Oxy的重要差异化优势，这将使我们能够解锁更多资源，并为股东创造长期价值。接下来，我们将开放提问环节。正如Jordan提到的，Richard Jackson和Ken Dillon今天也与我们一起参加问答环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
\[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Arun Jayaram with JPMorgan.
\[操作提示] 第一个问题来自JPMorgan的Arun Jayaram。
Arun Jayaram
Sunil, I wanted to just follow up on the cash tax rate or your expectations of tailwinds from the One Big Beautiful Bill. You mentioned \$700 million to \$800 million of tailwinds. I think you said 35% in '25 and the balance in '26. Is that correct? And maybe help us think about what that would translate into a cash tax rate perhaps in '26?
Sunil，我想跟进一下关于现金税率以及你们对《One Big Beautiful Bill》带来的顺风效应的预期。你提到有7亿到8亿美元的顺风效应。我记得你说35%会在2025年实现，剩余在2026年。对吗？另外，能否帮助我们理解这在2026年大概会转化为怎样的现金税率？
Sunil Mathew
Arun, firstly, that is correct. 35% of the \$700 million to \$800 million benefit will be in '25 and the balance is going to be in 2026. So the way we are to look at it is the adjusted income effective tax rate will not be impacted by the cash tax benefit, but what you're going to see is an increased deferred tax expense, primarily driven by the acceleration of depreciation and R\&D expenses for cash tax purpose. So you can go based on the guidance in terms of the book tax rate, but what you're going to see the difference is on the deferred tax expense increasing due to this benefit.
Arun，首先，这是正确的。7亿到8亿美元的收益中，有35%将在2025年实现，剩余部分将在2026年实现。所以我们需要这样来看：调整后的所得税有效税率不会受到现金税收优惠的影响，但你会看到递延税费的增加，主要是由于折旧和研发费用加速列支用于现金税目的。因此，你可以按照账面税率指引来看，但不同之处在于递延税费将因这一优惠而上升。
Operator
The next question comes from Doug Leggate with Wolfe Research.
下一个问题来自Wolfe Research的Doug Leggate。
Douglas George Blyth Leggate
Vicki, it's a long time since we heard much about Mukhaizna. I seem to remember when Ray had that contract signed, gosh, about 20 years ago now. The press has you spending committing \$30 billion over through 2050. And I recall that there are significant cost recovery benefits from stepping back up the spending. So I just wonder if you can walk us through what the free cash implications are? We obviously saw the initial step up in production in Q2.
Vicki，自从我们上次听到关于Mukhaizna的消息，已经过去很久了。我记得Ray大概在20年前签署了那份合同。媒体报道你们承诺到2050年总投资300亿美元。我也记得增加投资会带来显著的成本回收收益。所以我想请你解释一下，这对自由现金流意味着什么？我们在第二季度显然已经看到了产量的初步提升。
Vicki A. Hollub
Yes. I'd say, Doug, that was an incredible agreement that we made with Oman because the benefits both Oxy and Oman and allows us the flexibility and possibility to invest over there because now the economics will be comparable.
是的，Doug，我要说，那是我们与阿曼达成的一项极佳协议，因为这对Oxy和阿曼双方都有好处，并且给予我们在当地投资的灵活性和可能性，因为现在的经济效益已经具备可比性。
And Ken, did you have anything to...
Ken，你有什么要补充的吗……
Kenneth Dillon
Doug, it's Ken. I can't really comment on specific numbers around the contract. But if you think of that number being both capital and expense perhaps, and then you look at our equity in the book, which is less than 50%. And you start looking at that capital between now and 2050, you get into the sort of numbers you would expect for us.
Doug，我是Ken。我不能对合同的具体数字发表评论。但如果你把那个数字看作既包括资本又包括费用，然后再考虑我们在账面上的权益不到50%。你再看现在到2050年的资本支出，大概就会得出你对我们的预期数值。
The other thing I would say as you look back to the days that you mentioned since then, we've produced 640 million barrels to date. And originally, it was very focused on the steam floods. With all the work we've done there, what we see is multiple stacked pays across a very large block. And in the North, we've been producing the layup wells for some time now, which are totally different and don't need any steam.
另外我想说的是，回顾你提到的那段时间以来，我们至今已经生产了6.4亿桶石油。最初，重点是蒸汽驱。但通过我们在当地开展的工作，我们看到在一个非常大的区块内存在多层含油层。而在北部，我们已经生产了相当一段时间的layup井，这些井完全不同，不需要蒸汽。
So we see the extension as a win-win for Oxy and the government and sustainable. And as Sunil said on the last call, you'll see the numbers roll through the books over time.
因此，我们认为延期对Oxy和政府来说是双赢且可持续的。正如Sunil在上一次电话会议上所说，你将会随着时间在财务报表中看到这些数字的体现。
Vicki A. Hollub
And you'll note, Doug, that we much prefer those areas that have stacked pay and gives you multiple options and lower cost on infrastructure ultimately.
而且Doug，你会注意到，我们更倾向于那些拥有多层含油层的地区，因为这类地区能给我们提供多种选择，并最终降低基础设施成本。
Douglas George Blyth Leggate
Will be limited to one? Or can I have a follow-up?
我只能问一个问题吗？还是可以再追问？
Vicki A. Hollub
You can have a follow-up?
你可以再追问。
Douglas George Blyth Leggate
Okay. So my follow-up, Vicki, is the \$1 billion of non-core asset sales kind of came out of nowhere, especially the sale to enterprise. So I wonder if you could take a kind of 5-year forward look or however long you would like to put on it and say, well, we actually have another X billion dollars of non-core asset sales that kind of augment the free cash flow in terms of deleveraging. What would the scale of that non-core asset bucket look like for potential sales over that period of time?
好的。那么我的追问是，Vicki，10亿美元的非核心资产出售似乎有点突然，尤其是卖给Enterprise的那一笔。所以我想请你从未来5年的角度（或你认为合适的周期）来谈谈，实际上我们是否还有若干十亿美元的非核心资产可出售，从而在去杠杆的过程中补充自由现金流？在这个时间段里，非核心资产潜在出售的规模大概会是什么样？
Vicki A. Hollub
Well, another thing that we have is we have scattered acreage that goes all the way from here through the Rockies and into even the Virginias. So we have a lot of acreage because of the acquisitions that have been made over time to create what we have today. A lot of that has not a lot of value, but needs to be cleaned up, accumulated and sold. And so at some point, we'll sell that. Those would not be big dollars. So -- and so currently, I think the team is working on rounding that up and getting that ready for sale.
嗯，我们还有一类资产，就是零散分布的土地，从这里一直延伸到落基山脉，甚至进入弗吉尼亚州。由于过去的收购，我们今天拥有了很多这样的土地。其中相当一部分并没有太大价值，但需要清理、整合并出售。所以在某个时点，我们会出售这些资产。不过这些不会是大额资金。目前，我认为团队正在着手整合并准备将其出售。
Operator
And I apologize, I have Arun Jayaram, for his follow-up.His line is disconnected. We'll go to the next person, Betty Jiang with Barclays.
很抱歉，Arun Jayaram的追问掉线了。我们转到下一个提问者，Barclays的Betty Jiang。
Wei Jiang
Vicki, just given your comment about OBB's benefit on 45Q and the carbon business, I was wondering if that changes your strategic focus around the carbon business towards potentially more point source opportunities for EOR purposes? Just given that you are -- the utilization parity you mentioned?
Vicki，鉴于你刚才提到《OBB法案》对45Q和碳业务的好处，我想知道这是否会改变你们在碳业务上的战略重点，比如是否会更多关注点源捕集，用于EOR？因为你刚才提到的利用平价问题。
Vicki A. Hollub
Yes. We've always been interested in point source capture. In fact, we -- that's what kicked off our desire to get and to make the technology of Direct Air Capture better because since 2008, from about 2008 to about -- until we found Direct Air Capture, we were trying to get point-source capture. But back then, the carbon credits for that kind of capture were so low that we couldn't convince any industry to do it. And so now with the parity for CO2 enhanced oil recovery, we've never given up on that effort. So we've continued that. And so we'll continue looking for point source.
是的，我们一直对点源捕集感兴趣。事实上，这也是我们想要推动Direct Air Capture技术进步的起点。因为从2008年起，直到我们发现Direct Air Capture之前，我们都在尝试点源捕集。但当时这种捕集方式的碳信用价格太低，根本无法说服任何行业去做。所以如今在CO₂增强采油的平价条件下，我们从未放弃这项努力，并会继续寻找点源机会。
And there's quite a bit of emissions that are within pipelines that could be gotten -- that could get the CO2 to the Permian. So we'll still be working that. And now what I'm hoping this will do is it will make the industrial sources of CO2 more willing to work out an arrangement with us.
另外，还有相当一部分排放可以通过管道输送，将CO₂送到二叠纪。所以我们还会继续推进这方面的工作。我希望这会促使工业领域的CO₂来源更愿意与我们达成合作。
Richard A. Jackson
Betty, just one quick one, this is Richard, to add. I would say one sort of tailwind that's helping us natural gas to power generation, especially in places like the Permian. And so for us, we see that link not only for the power supply, but from a CO2 source as well as we're able to incorporate carbon capture into some of those installations.
Betty，我补充一点。这是Richard。我认为我们的一项顺风因素是天然气发电，尤其是在像二叠纪这样的地方。对我们来说，这不仅仅是电力供应的问题，也能提供CO₂来源，而且我们能够在这些装置中整合碳捕集。
Wei Jiang
It's very impactful for the EOR business for sure. My follow-up actually back to cash taxes. What would be the cash tax saving potential beyond 2027? Do you go back to where it was before? Or you continue to expect savings?
这对EOR业务的确影响深远。我的追问是关于现金税收的。2027年以后，现金税收的节省潜力会怎样？是恢复到以前的水平，还是你们仍然预期会有节省？
Sunil Mathew
Beyond '26, it will depend on the capital trajectory and on the proportion of domestic spending. So today, if you look at our capital, around 90% of it is domestic and we don't expect any significant change in that mix. And the reason we highlighted the '26 estimate is because we have the battleground expansion project that is expected to come online next year. And so we're expecting more 100% bonus depreciation qualifying assets in '26 compared to '25.
2026年以后，这将取决于资本支出的轨迹以及国内支出的比例。目前来看，我们约90%的资本支出是国内的，我们不预期这一比例会有显著变化。我们强调2026年的预估，是因为我们的battleground扩建项目预计将在明年投产。因此，相较于2025年，我们预计2026年会有更多符合100%加速折旧条件的资产。
Operator
Once again, we'll try again Arun with JPMorgan. Please go ahead with your follow-up questions, sir.
我们再尝试一次，请JPMorgan的Arun提问。请继续您的追问。
Arun Jayaram
Apologies about that. I forgot how to use a phone. A quick question on the Gulf of America. I wanted to get your thoughts on how you think about the production capacity in the Gulf of Mexico trending over a multiyear basis as you implement some of your Gulf of America 2.0 projects. And I think this year also was impacted by a higher degree of turnarounds and maintenance.
抱歉，我刚才忘了怎么用电话了。我想问一个关于美国湾区的简短问题。我想听听你们对墨西哥湾产能在未来多年走势的看法，尤其是在你们实施“Gulf of America 2.0”项目的过程中。此外，我认为今年也受到更多检修和维护的影响。
Kenneth Dillon
Yes. I think looking forward, the first layer that builds in is the water floods, which we've talked about briefly before. Having those projects online will reduce the average decline rate for our fields and lead to flat, low-cost, steady barrels. We have a large number of projects lined up for most of our facilities. If you look in the East, some of the modifications we made recently, offshore increases the capacity from our Eastern facilities. I think in the central GOM area, as Vicki mentioned that the start of this, we're seeing wells that are coming in with very large EOR. One of them could potentially end up as one of the best Gulf wells we have ever drilled.
是的。我认为展望未来，第一个关键因素就是注水开发，我们之前也简单提到过。这些项目上线后，将降低油田的平均递减率，并带来稳定、低成本的产量。我们为大部分设施排定了大量项目。如果你看东部，我们最近做的一些海上改造已经提升了东部设施的产能。我认为在墨西哥湾中部地区，正如Vicki在开场时提到的，我们看到一些井的EOR产量非常大，其中一口甚至可能成为我们在墨西哥湾钻探过的最佳油井之一。
So I think the combination of the subsurface engineering that's being carried out along with the geo signs, I think layered on to what we've done over the last 3 years in terms of getting equipment reliability and availability means that we're positioned incredibly well going forward for the production ramp-up.
所以我认为，当前正在开展的地质工程与地质信号的结合，再叠加过去三年来我们在设备可靠性和可用性方面所做的工作，使得我们在未来的产量提升上处于极为有利的位置。
Operator
The next question comes from Nitin Kumar with Mizuho.
下一个问题来自Mizuho的Nitin Kumar。
Nitin Kumar
I want to start off on the pretty impressive cost savings you highlighted both in the Delaware and the Midland. CapEx for the year was only down about \$100 million. So I know you won't give me a budget for next year, but as I think about rolling those savings, could you talk about how Lower 48 spending might trend in 2026, given the efficiencies you're seeing?
我想先谈谈你们在Delaware和Midland所强调的令人印象深刻的成本节约。今年的资本支出仅减少了大约1亿美元。我知道你不会给我明年的预算，但在考虑这些节省的延续时，能否谈谈在你们看到的效率提升下，Lower 48地区的支出在2026年的趋势？
Vicki A. Hollub
Yes. I would say that you're right that we -- next year, we will have a reduction in our OxyChem spend by about \$300 million, reduction in LCV by \$250 million. That, along with the efficiencies that the onshore team is building and achieving that could create some opportunities for higher capital. You want to comment some on that, Richard?
是的，我认为你说得对——明年我们的OxyChem支出将减少约3亿美元，LCV支出减少约2.5亿美元。再加上陆上团队正在实现的效率提升，这可能为更高的资本投入创造一些机会。Richard，你要补充一下吗？
Richard A. Jackson
Sure. No, I appreciate the opportunity. The team has done an outstanding job across capital and operating expense. But speaking to the capital, again, like you said, we've -- another incremental \$100 million down this quarter. This is on top of the \$100 million in the first quarter. So \$200 million below our original plan. For us, we do see opportunities going forward to not only sustain that, but continue to improve it. We are having good success really when drilling efficiency, whether that's nonproductive time reduction or larger pads, we're moving to from sort of 2 to 3 well pads in the first half of the year to 4 to 6. Our completion frac teams continue to deliver efficiency results. So as we couple that together, we expect continue to see that.
当然，谢谢这个机会。我们的团队在资本和运营支出方面都做得非常出色。但具体到资本方面，就像你说的，本季度我们又削减了额外的1亿美元。这是在第一季度削减1亿美元的基础上，所以比原计划低了2亿美元。对我们来说，未来不仅能维持这种水平，还有进一步改善的机会。在钻井效率方面我们确实取得了成功，无论是减少非生产时间还是采用更大的井组——今年上半年我们从2到3口井的井组转向了4到6口。我们的压裂团队也持续交付效率成果。因此结合起来，我们预计还能继续改善。
As we think about 2026, though, I think we're at a point we're really working to optimize activity levels for efficiency. And so while we're not targeting growth and that -- it's really the outcome of what do we need to do to maintain these efficiencies. And so I think today, we're largely near optimized activity level. And so we'll watch it over the next several months to see if things -- efficiencies may move activity continue to the left. On our schedule, we'll anticipate that to make sure we have the right bridge into that 2026 activity.
至于2026年，我认为我们现在的重点是优化活动水平以维持效率。所以我们并不是追求产量增长，而是要看怎样才能维持这些效率。我认为目前我们基本上已经接近优化的活动水平。在接下来的几个月里，我们会持续观察，看看效率是否还能进一步推动活动提前。我们会在计划表上做好准备，以确保顺利衔接到2026年的活动。
Vicki A. Hollub
And I'd say the other place that we could shift some capital would be to the lower decline, low F\&D, high-margin, waterflood projects that \[indiscernible] for the Gulf of America. Those are very...
我还想说，我们可以把部分资本转移到美国湾区的低递减、低F\&D、高利润率的注水开发项目上。这些项目非常……
Nitin Kumar
That's a perfect segue to my next question. So I appreciate you team me up, but I was going to follow up on Arun's question. As you put behind the Horn Mountain pipeline issues that have dogged Gulf of America this year, what would be a good, steady sort of run rate for the Gulf of America, let's say, in '26 and '27 from a production standpoint? And could you help us bridge the gap from where we are today between new developments, these water floods, et cetera, basic lines and also a return or sort of curtailed constrained production right now?
这正好引出我的下一个问题。谢谢你帮我铺垫。我想跟进一下Arun的问题。随着你们解决了困扰美国湾区的Horn Mountain管道问题，从产量角度看，2026年和2027年美国湾区的一个稳健产量水平大概会是多少？你能帮我们理清，从目前情况到未来新开发、这些注水项目等，再加上当前被限制或削减的产量，之间的差距该如何弥合吗？
Kenneth Dillon
Thanks for the question. I think if we maybe do it in reverse order, operationally, we experienced a mix of things, including pipeline constraints. But as Vicki highlighted, we've also seen incredibly positive results in our wells this year. We modified our pumps in Eastern GOM to handle the constraints. This work was done successfully in Q2 with really great work by our teams, both onshore and offshore.
谢谢你的问题。我想倒过来回答。从运营角度看，我们经历了多种情况，包括管道限制。但正如Vicki强调的，今年我们在油井上也看到了非常积极的成果。我们在墨西哥湾东部改造了泵，以应对这些限制。这项工作在第二季度顺利完成，得益于我们陆上和海上团队的出色努力。
Going forward this year, we were hurt by the late arrival of a stimulation vessel, which have been doing work for another operator. But these elements have all been built into our ramp-up plan, and we expect a very strong exit rate as you can see from the numbers.
展望今年，受到了增产船到港延迟的影响，该船之前在为另一家公司作业。但这些因素都已纳入我们的增产计划，我们预计会有一个非常强劲的年末产量水平，你可以从数据中看到这一点。
In terms of next year's guidance, with the Gulf, it's all about optimization and planning. Over the last few years, as you know, we've really improved the availability and plant uptime. The next phase of our OpEx optimization is to move to turnarounds every 2 years. And that multiyear schedule is being poured at the moment, including mapping resources internally, externally and tied to vendors that can service us through the long term. So we're considering starting that next year. So more information to come on the '26 plan later this year.
至于明年的指引，在美国湾区，这一切都关乎优化和规划。过去几年里，我们大幅改善了设备可用性和工厂运行时间。下一阶段的运营成本优化是把检修周期延长到每两年一次。目前我们正在制定多年度的计划，其中包括内部和外部资源的协调，以及与能够长期为我们提供服务的供应商的绑定。所以我们正在考虑从明年开始实施。关于2026年的计划，将在今年晚些时候提供更多信息。
Operator
The next question comes from Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自Goldman Sachs的Neil Mehta。
Neil Singhvi Mehta
Yes. Looking at Slide 34, you talk about advanced subsurface characterization and technological improvements. And I think a lot of investors are just wondering what inning are we in terms of digital application in the oil fields and how are you employing it? And do you think it's going to fundamentally change the industry and our ability to drive volumes?
是的。在第34页幻灯片中，你们提到先进的地下特征描述和技术改进。我认为很多投资者都想知道，目前油田的数字化应用处于哪个阶段？你们是如何运用这些技术的？你认为它会从根本上改变行业和我们推动产量的能力吗？
Vicki A. Hollub
We are so excited about what we've been able to do internally with an Oxy to start building our AI capabilities. And I think we've talked on this on the calls previously about our AI effort in the Gulf of America. That subsurface is so incredibly complex that we do believe that we can make a big difference with the project that we're working right now. And we expect that maybe by the end of this year, we'll be prepared to start having the team look at actually executing some things in the year to 2 years following.
我们对Oxy在内部能够构建AI能力感到非常兴奋。我想我们之前在电话会议中谈过我们在美国湾区的AI工作。那里的地下构造极其复杂，我们确实相信目前正在推进的项目能够带来巨大改变。我们预计到今年年底，团队可能就能准备好，在接下来的1到2年内开始实际执行一些应用。
So Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America, that's going to be an area that where AI is really going to be applicable. It's already helping us with the subsurface in the Permian and in the other onshore areas in the U.S. It's also helping with not just the subsurface, it's helping with operational efficiencies. So we have really put a big effort into making sure that we have actually focused teams.
因此，无论是墨西哥湾还是所谓的美国湾区，这将是AI真正适用的领域。它已经在帮助我们分析二叠纪以及美国其他陆上区域的地下构造。不仅如此，它还在帮助提升运营效率。因此，我们下了很大功夫，确保有专门聚焦的团队来推动这件事。
These are teams that are focused on specific areas. One, is right now working operations. The other is working in the Gulf of America. Then we have a group that's working with the broader challenges of logistics and supply chain and things like that. So we put a big effort forth on it, and I do believe it's going to deliver significant results.
这些团队专注于特定领域。一个专注于当前的运营，另一个专注于美国湾区。此外，我们还有一个团队在研究更广泛的挑战，比如物流和供应链等。所以我们在这方面投入了大量精力，我相信它将带来显著成果。
Neil Singhvi Mehta
Vicki, maybe tie that into your perspective on U.S. oil production and how you see that evolving as we apply these technologies, we've got to contrast that with maturity in a number of these key basins and limited exploration success on the oil side at least. And so just how do you see the U.S. production profile evolving over the next 5 years?
Vicki，也许你可以把这和你对美国石油产量的看法联系起来。随着我们应用这些技术，必须对比一下几个主要盆地的成熟度，以及石油勘探方面有限的成功。那么在未来5年内，你如何看待美国石油产量的变化趋势？
Vicki A. Hollub
Well, we've been talking about this a lot. We believe that the U.S. would -- could hit peak production between 2027 and 2030. And we've modeled that based on hovered curves and the current data that we have. We've taken the model down to look at conventional separate from unconventional and also to look at EOR. So we believe that right now, there's going to be significant potential and maybe the extension of our U.S. energy independence by about 10 years with the development of 50 million to 70 million barrels of oil developed by and through CO2 EOR.
嗯，我们经常在讨论这个问题。我们认为美国的石油产量可能会在2027年至2030年间达到峰值。我们基于Hubbert曲线和现有数据建立了模型，并分别对常规和非常规油藏以及EOR进行了分析。所以我们认为，目前有很大的潜力，可能通过CO₂ EOR开发额外的500亿到700亿桶石油，从而将美国的能源独立延长大约10年。
So it's, to us, incredibly important because energy independence for the United States really impacts our ability to keep maintain our leverage in the world. So we believe this is critically important for us, it's always been a strategy to use CO2 for enhanced oil recovery. We're a company that's always been known for getting the most barrels out of any reservoir that we work. And CO2 is in our experience, over the 50 years that we've been doing it, it's been able to get more than any other technique that we've tried beyond primary production and water flooding.
所以这对我们来说极其重要，因为美国的能源独立确实关系到我们在全球保持影响力的能力。因此我们认为这是至关重要的战略，我们一直以来都把利用CO₂进行增强采油作为战略重点。我们是一家以最大限度开发油藏潜力而闻名的公司。在过去50年的经验中，CO₂技术相比其他方法（如一次采油和注水驱）能够获得更多的石油。
So we do believe that out of the estimated 1.5 trillion barrels of oil that the United States has in terms of total resource in the ground. Currently, only 22% will be recovered unless we can apply CO2 EOR. And CO2 EOR will get us double-digit increases from that amount, we believe. And again, the 50 billion to 70 billion barrels. We're working on that. That's our strategy. We're working the technology to get the CO2 because the other challenge is that there's not enough naturally occurring CO2 in the United States to support the development of that kind of volume.
所以我们确实相信，美国地下约1.5万亿桶的总资源中，目前只有22%能够被开采，除非我们应用CO₂ EOR。而我们认为CO₂ EOR将使这一比例实现两位数的提升，也就是增加500亿到700亿桶石油。我们正为此努力，这就是我们的战略。我们也在开发获取CO₂的技术，因为另一个挑战是，美国国内自然存在的CO₂数量不足以支撑这种规模的开发。
Operator
The next question comes from Paul Cheng with Scotiabank.
下一个问题来自Scotiabank的Paul Cheng。
Yim Chuen Cheng
Vicki, on Oman, the term sounds fantastic, and you guys know what to do, and there's a lot of opportunity. Is the activity level, right now is being constrained by your capital? Or that is there any other thing is constraining the activity level so that you can't do or go a bit faster?
Vicki，关于阿曼的合同条件听起来非常不错，你们也清楚该怎么做，并且有很多机会。那么，目前的活动水平是否受到了资本的限制？还是有其他因素限制了你们的活动水平，以至于不能做得更快？
Vicki A. Hollub
Well, what's happened with this contract is certainly going to make that project a lot more competitive. So there's no restrictions with respect to what we can consider there, but the main restriction for us in terms of capital and for the industry itself is right now, we have an oversupplied market. And so there's, in our view, no reason for companies to get too aggressive with the growth right now. You're just making the problem worse if we do that. And for us, we are absolutely determined to get our debt down sooner rather than later. So we are now running at a level where our activity level is designed to ensure that we can maintain our production and that we generate the projects at the pace that we need to. So we're not looking for growth.
这份合同的达成无疑使该项目变得更具竞争力。所以在我们能考虑的范围内没有限制。但对我们而言，资本上的主要限制以及整个行业的限制在于，现在市场是供过于求的。在我们看来，没有理由在这个时候过度追求增长，否则只会让问题更糟。对我们来说，我们绝对坚定要尽快降低债务。所以我们现在的活动水平是为了确保维持产量，同时以合适的节奏推进项目。因此我们并不是在寻求增长。
As Richard had said, we're looking for the activities that can help us continue to optimize, reduce our costs and lower our cost structure. And I can tell you that our -- every one of our asset teams, including midstream and chemicals works every day to find ways to lower our cost because we believe at the end of the day, it's going to be the lower-cost company that really is profitable through all the cycles and the one that has the sustainability over time. With the portfolio we have, we have the chance to do that. And we're doing it now. We'll continue doing it. But the next step is to get our DAC costs down to the point where the CO2 cost enables us to generate maximum returns from those CO2 floods.
正如Richard所说，我们关注的活动是能够帮助我们持续优化、降低成本并改善成本结构的。我可以告诉你，我们的每一个资产团队，包括中游和化工团队，每天都在努力寻找降低成本的方法。因为我们相信最终能够在所有周期中保持盈利并具备长期可持续性的公司，一定是成本最低的公司。凭借我们的资产组合，我们有机会做到这一点。我们现在就在做，并将持续推进。但下一步是要把DAC的成本降下来，使得CO₂成本能够让我们从CO₂驱中获得最大回报。
And with respect to Oman in particular, it's ultimately going to be a place where there will be incremental capital. We'll just have to figure out when that's going to be.
至于阿曼，最终那里会是我们追加资本的地方。我们只需要决定何时投放资本。
What do you think, Ken?
Ken，你怎么看？
Kenneth Dillon
Yes. Just one thing to build on what Vicki said, in the same way that U.S. onshore is improving both in terms of capital efficiency and operational efficiency. In Block 53, our drilling rigs are now running at their lowest cost per foot and our highest feet per day rates ever. On OpEx efficiency, our artificial lift equipment is running at its highest reliability ever, and our workover rigs are performing at their best level ever. All done with the best safety performance with great help from our teams in the center also using AI.
是的，我想补充一点，就像美国陆上业务在资本效率和运营效率上不断提升一样。在第53区块，我们的钻机现在达到了历史最低的单位进尺成本和最高的日进尺率。在运营成本效率方面，我们的人工举升设备达到了历史最高的可靠性，我们的修井机也在以最佳水平运行。这一切都是在最佳安全表现下完成的，并且得到了总部团队的大力支持，包括利用AI技术。
So we're doing more -- just doing it much smarter. And it's a combination of the engineering related activities, but it's also through supply chain also. We're working on supply chain around the world, and we're seeing the effects roll through onshore, effects rolling through offshore and rolling through in our assets around the world, and we see more opportunities to come. So a lot more with less also.
因此，我们做得更多，但方式更聪明。这不仅仅是工程相关活动的结果，也是供应链优化的结果。我们正在优化全球范围的供应链，并且已经看到其在陆上、海上和全球资产中的积极效果。我们相信未来还有更多机会。也就是说，用更少的投入做更多的事。
Yim Chuen Cheng
Can I just continue on this subject because let's assume, say, several years down the road, you guys already restored your balance sheet and there's a call on oil. And so the oil is needed. At that point, I'm trying to understand that how big is the scale of the Oman business can get to? And what is the constraining factor at that moment?
我能继续这个话题吗？假设几年后，你们已经恢复了资产负债表，而市场对石油的需求上升。那么在那个时候，我想了解一下阿曼业务能扩展到多大的规模？届时的限制因素会是什么？
Vicki A. Hollub
The constraint for us would be our value proposition because it's not just about growth for us. Our value proposition is that we want to deliver a growing dividend, but at a moderate pace. We want to, in the near term, lower our debt. But over time, we want to add share repurchases to our program in addition to investing appropriately in our organic assets. So we will, over time, need to increase our production, but it would be at the appropriate time. And when there's -- when that happens, we'll allocate capital based on not just what the returns are, but how it fits within our long-term plan because as we've said, our portfolio is diverse, we have the high-return shale, but high decline. We have the low-return assets like Oman and where Oman comes in is providing us those lower decline and lower capital cost projects.
对我们而言，未来的限制因素将是我们的价值主张，因为我们不仅仅追求增长。我们的价值主张是要以适度的步伐提供不断增长的股息。近期我们要降低债务，但从长期来看，我们还希望在合理投资自有资产的基础上增加股票回购。因此，随着时间推移，我们确实需要增加产量，但必须在合适的时机。当那一刻到来时，我们会基于回报水平以及其在长期计划中的契合度来分配资本。正如我们所说的，我们的资产组合是多样化的，既有高回报但高递减的页岩资产，也有像阿曼这样的低回报、但低递减和低资本成本的项目。
Kenneth Dillon
Just maybe I could add something to that. If you look at the portfolio in Oman, what we have is a number of blocks where we already have partners. If you look at the South, it's predominantly heavy oil, but with some lighter oil. In the Northwest, it's light oil. And then in the East, it's gas, and we mentioned our \[indiscernible] discovery recently. Some of these blocks, we do not have partners. So we have opportunities to use partnerships as a way of funding projects also to accelerate things, but without digging into our own capital going forward. So we have a huge range of options with very low option cost at the moment as we work through things.
我再补充一点。如果你看阿曼的资产组合，我们在一些区块已经有合作伙伴。比如南部主要是重油，但也有一些轻油；西北部是轻油；东部是天然气，我们最近还宣布了一项新发现。其中有些区块我们没有合作伙伴，所以我们有机会通过引入合作伙伴来为项目融资，从而加快进展，而不必过多动用自有资本。因此，在目前阶段，我们有一个巨大的选择空间，而且期权成本非常低。
Operator
The next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy with Pickering Energy Partners.
下一个问题来自Pickering Energy Partners的Kevin MacCurdy。
Kevin Moreland MacCurdy
Pickering Energy Partners Insights
I wanted to ask on the trajectory of OxyChem income. Do you view the PVC oversupply and price decrease is temporary? And how is that factored into your outlook for a big free cash flow uplift in chems next year? And just one for me.
我想问一下OxyChem收益的走势。你们认为PVC的供过于求和价格下降是暂时的吗？你们是如何把这一因素纳入到明年化工业务自由现金流大幅提升的展望中的？我就一个问题。
Kenneth Dillon
So in terms of the '26 market, it's going to a large extent, depending on the timing of the supply-demand balance. And so currently, the global supply demand for PVC and caustic is being burdened by additional Chinese capacity, which, again, is burdening the export prices and ultimately burdening the domestic prices. So if you look at the Chinese exports on the PVC side, it's grown from almost nothing in 2020 to almost 30% currently. And the same with caustic, it's been increasing and it's still growing.
关于2026年的市场情况，很大程度上取决于供需平衡的时间点。目前，全球PVC和烧碱的供需关系正受到中国新增产能的冲击，这进一步压低了出口价格，并最终拖累了国内价格。如果你看PVC方面，中国的出口量从2020年几乎为零，增长到目前接近30%。烧碱也是一样，出口量一直在增长，并且还在继续上升。
So some of the announced capacity rationalization in Europe and U.S. will potentially mitigate some of those capacity additions, but we don't see a meaningful impact of that in 2026.
因此，欧洲和美国宣布的一些产能缩减可能会在一定程度上缓解新增产能的影响，但我们认为这在2026年不会产生实质性作用。
Also, we believe that the integrated margins between PVC and caustic are close to variable cost of many international producers, including China. So we don't anticipate further sustained declines in margins, but as far as '26 goes, we believe it is more likely to be what we saw in 2025.
此外，我们认为PVC和烧碱的综合利润率已经接近包括中国在内的许多国际生产商的变动成本。因此，我们不预计利润率会进一步持续下降。但就2026年来说，我们认为更可能会延续2025年的市场情况。
Operator
The next question comes from Matt Portillo with TPH.
下一个问题来自TPH的Matt Portillo。
Matthew Merrel Portillo
Just a question on the Permian. I'm curious, as you guys think about the production in the basin. We've seen a little bit of a downtick in the oil cut and a rise in your gas and NGL recoveries. I was curious if that is a function of the secondary zones being developed or if you're having just better recoveries overall in the gas and NGL side? And then as you look into the back half of this year, especially given the high \[indiscernible] in Q2, do you expect that oil cut to stabilize or even improve a bit into the second half of 2025?
我有一个关于二叠纪盆地的问题。我想知道你们如何看待该盆地的产量。我们注意到油气比（oil cut）有所下降，而天然气和NGL的回收率有所上升。我想知道这是因为次生层的开发，还是你们在天然气和NGL方面整体回收效果更好？另外，展望今年下半年，尤其是在第二季度高企的\[听不清]情况下，你们是否预计油气比会趋于稳定，甚至在2025年下半年有所改善？
Richard A. Jackson
Yes. Great. I appreciate the question. Let me walk through a few pieces of that. I would say overall, U.S. onshore -- so if you're looking at Permian plus Rockies, as we think about not only '25 versus '24, but also second half versus first half, we expect that to go up a bit. With respect to the Permian, we do expect an increase in the second half of the year from where we have been in the first half. And you got it exactly right. We have much more secondary benches as a part of our portfolio.
是的，非常感谢这个问题。我来分几个方面回答。总体上看，美国陆上业务——也就是二叠纪加落基山脉，我们预计2025年相较2024年，以及今年下半年相较上半年，产量都会有所上升。就二叠纪而言，我们确实预计下半年产量会比上半年更高。你说得完全正确，我们的资产组合中有更多次生层。
The good news is, I think you know as part of our strategy, it's really reusing the infrastructure and so being able to refill existing production processing equipment can deliver exceptional returns. And so that is a big part of it. Really, the oil cut is an outcome of that well mix. It's drilling completion efficiencies as we move production to the left that can change some of our outlooks. And so those are really the variables that change it. But as you say, we do expect it to stabilize and actually increase in the second half of the year.
好消息是，正如你知道的，我们的战略之一就是重复利用基础设施，因此能够重新利用现有的生产处理设备带来了极高的回报。这是其中的重要部分。实际上，油气比是井型组合的结果。随着我们加快钻完井效率，把产量提前释放，这也会改变我们的预期。所以这些才是真正导致波动的变量。但正如你所说，我们确实预计油气比会在下半年趋于稳定，甚至有所上升。
Matthew Merrel Portillo
Great. And then as a follow-up in the Permian, there's been a lot of industry discussion around water handling and disposal in the basin as you're a very large player. I'm just curious how you guys are looking at that business? Any constraints that might be on the horizon? And any opportunities that you may see to further reduce your cost on the waterfront, especially as you develop these secondary zones, which I think, in some cases, tend to carry a higher water cut?
很好。作为跟进，在二叠纪盆地，行业内对水处理和处置有很多讨论，鉴于你们是该盆地的大型参与者，我想知道你们是如何看待这一业务的？未来是否会有约束？以及你们是否看到机会在水处理方面进一步降低成本，尤其是在开发这些次生层时，我认为它们在某些情况下往往伴随更高的含水率？
Richard A. Jackson
Right. No, great question. A couple of aspects to that. I'd almost start with where you said on the secondary benches. I would say one key thing that I think we've done really well, and this is with respect to our well performance, which has continued to outpace really the industry is thinking about well placement to optimize the oil, not the water. And so I think we've had great success just from that standpoint, starting in the subsurface.
对，很好的问题。这里有几个方面。我想先从你提到的次生层开始。我认为我们做得非常好的一点是，在井的布置上始终以优化石油产量为目标，而不是以水产量为导向。这使得我们的井表现持续领先于行业，所以从地下环节开始，我们已经取得了很大成功。
As you think about -- as it comes to surface, obviously, having the partnerships, having the long sort of connection with Western Midstream and others thinking about that takeaway, we've tried to be proactive for the last several years looking at that.
至于地面环节，显然，与Western Midstream等合作伙伴保持长期合作关系，规划外输能力，这一点我们过去几年一直在积极推进。
And then the final thing I would note is just the technology. I think we continue to highlight our technology advancements and recycling and others, and we do think that's going to be a meaningful part of this solution going forward. And so Midland Basin has been a big thing we've highlighted, but we actually did quite a bit in the Delaware Basin as well. It's another synergy that CrownRock brought into our portfolio as well.
最后，我想强调的是技术。我们不断推进技术进步和水的循环利用等方面的创新，我们认为这些将是未来解决方案的重要组成部分。Midland盆地一直是我们强调的重点，但实际上我们在Delaware盆地也做了不少工作。这也是CrownRock并入后为我们的投资组合带来的协同效应之一。
So you're exactly right. It's a very important thing to watch. I think we're well positioned to maintain our cost structure and really be smart about that water as we go into the future.
所以你说得完全正确，这确实是需要重点关注的事情。我认为我们已经处于一个很好的位置，能够在未来保持我们的成本结构，并且在水处理方面更加智慧化。
Operator
The next question comes from Mark -- Scott Gruber with Citigroup.
下一个问题来自花旗集团的Scott Gruber。
Scott Andrew Gruber
Yes. I want to dig into the EOR opportunity a bit more. You have a lot of EOR experience in conventional oil, but shale EOR in the, call it, evaluation phase for a number of years. Is shale EOR economically viable now at current crude prices and with the 45Q enhancement? Is it really just the CO2 availability constraint that needs to be addressed? And if it is economically viable, just some thoughts on potential timing of a commercial shale EOR project?
是的，我想更深入探讨一下EOR的机会。你们在常规油EOR方面有丰富经验，但页岩EOR已经处于所谓的评估阶段多年。在当前原油价格和45Q补贴增强的情况下，页岩EOR是否在经济上可行？是否实际上只是需要解决CO₂供应的限制？如果它在经济上可行，你们对商业化的页岩EOR项目时间表有什么看法？
Vicki A. Hollub
For us, it's really more about the availability of the CO2 That's why DAC is so important for us. And that's why going and looking at point source capture to get it to the Permian is important, and we're doing that work and trying to get prepared for it. But we have right now the conventional CO2 floods are taking as much -- almost as much CO2 as we can get right now reasonably for the life of the floods. So it's going to take a little while for us to make the shale CO2 happen. But it is going to be economical and our teams are getting prepared for a project in the Delaware Basin. And so we'll be putting that on within the next probably year to 2 years.
对我们来说，关键在于CO₂的供应，这也是为什么DAC对我们如此重要。这也是为什么我们要研究点源捕集并将CO₂输送到二叠纪盆地，这项工作我们正在推进并做准备。但目前常规CO₂驱已经几乎消耗掉了我们能够合理获取的全部CO₂。因此，要让页岩CO₂驱实现还需要一点时间。但它将会在经济上可行，我们的团队正在为二叠纪Delaware盆地的一个项目做准备，我们预计会在未来一到两年内启动。
So we do -- we have modeled it enough. We've done 4 pilots. We've done the modeling, the pilots were better than the model. So we've recalibrated. So we know that it will work. It's just a matter of getting the incremental CO2. And in Oman, we've also tested the -- some reservoirs in North Oman and CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery did well there too. So that's going to be another place where we'll apply hopefully, DAC and/or net power. Net power, as you know, it not only generates electricity to run the equipment, but it creates CO2 as a sidestream -- pure CO2 that can be used in EOR. So we'd like to apply that in Oman as well as in the Permian.
我们已经对其进行了充分建模，做了4个试点。试点结果优于模型，因此我们进行了重新校准。我们确信它是可行的，只是需要获取增量CO₂。在阿曼北部，我们也测试了一些油藏，CO₂驱同样取得了不错的效果。因此，阿曼将是我们另一个希望应用DAC或Net Power的地方。正如你所知，Net Power不仅能够发电运行设备，还能副产纯CO₂，可用于EOR。所以我们希望在阿曼和二叠纪盆地都能应用这种方式。
Scott Andrew Gruber
And then turning to a second potential DAC facility in South Texas, does the potential JV and contribution from XRG tilt you towards sanctioning that project, if you could work through the details or would you look to forward sell a certain percentage of the volumes? Just some thoughts on the factors that could impact your decision to sanction a second facility?
然后谈到南德州第二个潜在的DAC设施，如果与XRG的潜在合资以及其贡献能够落实，是否会促使你们批准该项目？或者你们会考虑预售一部分产能？能否谈谈影响你们批准第二个设施的因素？
Vicki A. Hollub
Well, we intend to go with the second facility. We have a DOE grant for that as well. So that's going to be helpful. But we do intend to FID. The timing is not set yet, but we will FID it. We're going to take advantage of some of the innovations that's being developed right now on carbon engineering to make sure that we get that in the second facility, just like we're getting in Phase 2 of the current facility. But we will FID.
我们确实打算推进第二个设施。我们也获得了美国能源部（DOE）的资助，这将有所帮助。但我们确实打算进行最终投资决策（FID）。时间尚未确定，但我们会做出FID。我们将利用目前碳工程领域正在开发的一些创新，确保把这些应用在第二个设施上，就像我们正在把它们应用在现有设施的第二阶段一样。但我们会进行FID。
We've got a lot of interest in others that want to be a part of that and a lot of interest in the sales. And we presold the credits for STRATOS and so we'll presale for that one, too, but probably not sign contracts until we've done the FID.
我们有很多潜在合作方希望参与其中，也有很多买方对其产出感兴趣。我们已经预售了STRATOS的碳信用额度，因此对第二个设施我们也会预售，但很可能要等到完成FID之后才会签订正式合同。
Operator
In the interest of time, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Vicki Hollub for any closing remarks.
出于时间考虑，问答环节到此结束。现在我将会议交还给Vicki Hollub作结束发言。
Vicki A. Hollub
I just want to thank you all for joining our call and for your questions, and have a great day. Bye.
我只想感谢大家参加我们的电话会议并提出问题，祝大家度过愉快的一天。再见。
Operator
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
本次会议到此结束。感谢各位参加今天的发布会。您现在可以挂断电话。