Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) Q2 2026 Earnings Call October 7, 2025 8:00 AM EDT
Company Participants
Blair Veenema - Vice President, Investor Relations
William Newlands - President, CEO & Director
Garth Hankinson - Executive VP & CFO
Conference Call Participants
Nik Modi - RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Nadine Sarwat - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
Robert Ottenstein - Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Dara Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Bonnie Herzog - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
Christopher Carey - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Drew Levine - JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
William Kirk - ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division
Filippo Falorni - Citigroup Inc., Research Division
Carlos Alberto Laboy - HSBC Global Investment Research
Kaumil Gajrawala - Jefferies LLC, Research Division
Kevin Grundy - BNP Paribas Exane, Research Division
Chris Pitcher - Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division
Xin Ma - TD Cowen, Research Division
Christopher Barnes - Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Presentation
Operator
运营人员
Greetings, and welcome to the Constellation Brands Q2 Fiscal Year 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.
各位好，欢迎参加 Constellation Brands 2026 财年第二季度业绩电话会。[运营指引] 提醒各位，本次会议将被录音记录。
It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Blair Veenema, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Blair.
现在很高兴把电话交给投资者关系副总裁 Blair Veenema。Blair，请开始。
Blair Veenema
Thank you, Kevin. Good morning all, and welcome to Constellation Brands Q2 Fiscal '26 Conference Call. I'm here this morning with Bill Newlands, our CEO; and Garth Hankinson, our CFO. We trust you had the opportunity to review the news release, CEO and CFO commentary and accompanying quarterly slides made available in the Investors section of our company's website, [
www.cbrands.com](http://www.cbrands.com).谢谢你，Kevin。各位早上好，欢迎参加 Constellation Brands 2026 财年第二季度电话会。今天与我一同出席的有我们的 CEO Bill Newlands 和 CFO Garth Hankinson。我们相信各位已经在公司官网投资者栏目 [
www.cbrands.com](http://www.cbrands.com) 上阅读了新闻稿、CEO 与 CFO 的解读评论以及配套的季度演示材料。
On that note, as a reminder, reconciliations between the most directly comparable GAAP measure and any non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call are included in the news release and website. And we encourage you to also refer to the news release and Constellation's SEC filings for risk factors that may impact forward-looking statements made on this call.
同时提醒各位，本次电话会提及的非 GAAP 财务指标与最直接可比的 GAAP 指标之间的对账信息，已包含在新闻稿与网站中。我们也鼓励大家参阅新闻稿以及 Constellation 提交给 SEC 的文件，以了解可能影响本次电话会前瞻性陈述的风险因素。
Before turning the call over to Bill and Garth, please keep in mind that, as usual, answers provided today will be referencing comparable results unless otherwise specified. Lastly, in line with prior quarters, I would ask that you limit yourselves to one question per person, which will help us to end our call on time.
在把电话交给 Bill 和 Garth 之前，请记住，除非另有说明，今天的回答将基于可比口径的结果。最后，延续以往季度的做法，请每位提问者限制在一个问题，以帮助我们准时结束会议。
Thanks in advance and over to your questions.
提前感谢各位，现在进入问答环节。
Question-and-Answer Session
问答环节
Operator
运营人员
[Operator Instructions] Our first question today is coming from Nik Modi from RBC Capital Markets.
[运营指引] 今天的第一个问题来自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Nik Modi。
Nik Modi
RBC Capital Markets, Research Division
Nik Modi
RBC Capital Markets，研究部门
So I just had a big picture question on volume growth. So the debate across the industry has been primarily about structural versus cyclical. But for Constellation Brands, there's a bit of more of a nuance right within the cyclical bucket. So you're dealing with the overall macro consumer slowdown but also suppressed sentiment among Hispanic consumers.
我有一个关于销量增长的宏观问题。行业里一直在讨论结构性与周期性的区别。但对于 Constellation Brands，在“周期性”这一篮子里还有更细微的差别：你们既面对宏观层面的消费者放缓，也面对西班牙裔消费者情绪受压这一因素。
So we did some work, and it shows like there was a rapid drop off in sales volume around March, April of this year for the brands and the pack sizes that really over-index the Hispanic consumers across your portfolio. And that's right when the ICE activity started to pick up.
我们做了一些分析，显示在你们组合中对西班牙裔消费者权重较高的品牌与包装规格，在今年 3、4 月份出现了销量的快速下滑。而这正好与 ICE 活动开始升温的时间相吻合。
So the question, I guess, is this. Do you think volumes would have grown in absence of the ICE activities based on everything that you've seen and all the data that you have? And I guess, in other words, will volume growth resume when we start lapping these activities next year?
所以我的问题是：基于你们目前所见与掌握的数据，如果没有 ICE 活动，你们是否认为销量本可以实现增长？换句话说，明年当我们开始与这些活动的高基数进行同比时，销量增长是否会恢复？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Yes. Thanks, Nik. The key thing, I think, around that whole question is exactly what you put your finger on, which is what is the consumer sentiment. And as you know, we are doing a monthly study of all consumers, both Hispanic and non-Hispanic. And the thing that has stood out for us is that 80% of surveyed Hispanic and non-Hispanic consumers continue to express concern about the socioeconomic environment we face. And 70% of those are specifically concerned about their personal finances, which goes right back to your point about cyclical versus noncyclical. We've got a consumer base that's pulling in a bit and they are not engaging.
是的。谢谢你，Nik。我认为，这个问题的关键正是你所指出的——消费者情绪如何。正如你所知，我们每月对所有消费者（包括 Hispanic 和非 Hispanic）进行研究。最突出的发现是，被调查的 Hispanic 和非 Hispanic 消费者中有 80% 仍然对我们所面临的社会经济环境表示担忧；其中有 70% 明确担心他们的个人财务状况，这正回到你关于周期性与非周期性的观点。我们的消费者群体正在略微收缩，他们没有积极参与消费。
At the same time, you're seeing increased loyalty. Our loyalty is up with Corona in the general market. Our loyalty is up with Hispanic consumers for Modelo. A lot of people ask the question about Gen Z often. We have twice the share of Gen Z as part of our overall mix versus the industry average. So we're sitting in a good spot as the consumer turns around and gets more comfortable with where they are. But at the moment, there's just a tremendous amount of concern about socioeconomic issues really across the board, and our view is that's the significant thing that's been challenging both for us and for the category in general.
同时，你会看到忠诚度在提升。在大众市场中，Corona 的忠诚度提高了；在 Hispanic 消费者中，Modelo 的忠诚度也提高了。很多人经常问关于 Gen Z 的问题。我们在整体消费结构中来自 Gen Z 的占比是行业平均水平的两倍。因此，一旦消费者情绪转好、对自身处境更为安心，我们的位置是不错的。但目前，对社会经济问题的广泛担忧非常强烈，我们认为这正是对我们以及对整个品类造成挑战的关键因素。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Nadine Sarwat from Bernstein.
下一个问题来自 Bernstein 的 Nadine Sarwat。
Nadine Sarwat
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division
I'd like to touch on, on CapEx. So you cut your top line guidance last month. You have not cut your GAAP CapEx guidance. Can you comment on the rationale behind that? And is there scope to cut CapEx for years beyond this fiscal year given the weaker top line?
我想谈谈 CapEx。你们在上个月下调了营收指引，但并未下调 GAAP 口径的 CapEx 指引。能否解释背后的原因？鉴于营收走弱，在本财年之后的几年里，是否还有下调 CapEx 的空间？
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Nadine, thanks for the question. And let me try to answer that, and there is a little bit of a near-term and a long-term answer there. So first of all, consistent with our capital allocation priorities, we're going to continue to invest in the long-term growth in our business. And despite the near-term headwinds that Bill just highlighted, which we see as being primarily cyclical in nature, we're confident in the longer-term growth trajectory of the portfolio. So we still believe that we need to invest in incremental capacity.
Nadine，谢谢你的提问。我来回答一下，这里既有短期也有长期的考虑。首先，与我们的资本配置优先级一致，我们将继续投资于业务的长期增长。尽管 Bill 刚才强调了短期逆风，我们认为这些主要是周期性的，但我们对产品组合的长期增长轨迹仍有信心。因此，我们依然认为需要投资于新增产能。
Again, the answer is a bit nuanced. As we look at FY '26, we didn't adjust CapEx for FY '26 because, as we discussed last month, much of what you incur from a CapEx perspective in a fiscal year is related to longer lead items. And so those are sort of committed dollars, if you will. As we look beyond FY '26, however, even though we do have confidence in the longer-term trajectory of the portfolio, we are being very mindful in looking at ways that we could slow down or avoid CapEx if possible. I don't have anything to share with you on that. As we said last month. As it relates to anything beyond FY '26, we'll cover off on that later this year as we give guidance for FY '27.
此外，答案还有些细微之处。就 FY ’26 而言，我们没有调整 FY ’26 的 CapEx，因为正如我们上月所讨论的，一个财年内发生的相当多 CapEx 与更长交付周期的项目相关，因此可以说这些资金已基本锁定。至于 FY ’26 之后，尽管我们对组合的长期轨迹有信心，但我们会非常谨慎地评估是否可以放缓或在可能的情况下避免 CapEx。目前这方面我没有更多可以分享的内容，正如我们上个月所说。关于 FY ’26 之后的任何事项，我们会在今年晚些时候给出 FY ’27 指引时再进行说明。
Operator
运营人员
Next question today is coming from Rob Ottenstein from Evercore.
今天的下一个问题来自 Evercore 的 Rob Ottenstein。
Robert Ottenstein
Evercore ISI Institutional Equities, Research Division
Great. I just want to get a little bit more sense about what you mean by seeing more loyalty for Corona and Modelo. And particularly Corona, if we just -- from the outside, without your data, Corona Extra is down more than Coors Light or Miller Lite, never seen that before. And Corona is more general population, I think it's, what, 20% or 30% Hispanic. So just like to understand what you're seeing in terms of loyalty.
很好。我想进一步理解你们所说的 Corona 和 Modelo 忠诚度提升是什么意思。尤其是 Corona，如果仅从外部、在没有你们数据的情况下观察，Corona Extra 的下滑幅度超过了 Coors Light 或 Miller Lite，这是前所未见的。而且 Corona 更偏向大众人群，我想大概是 20% 或 30% 的 Hispanic 占比。所以我想了解你们在忠诚度方面看到了什么。
And perhaps connected to that, very interesting movement within the Corona portfolio, right, with Corona Familiar doing actually extremely well and maybe actually a larger brand than we may think. So maybe give us a little bit of sense of how big Corona Familiar is, what you're seeing within the Corona portfolio, and what's the data that's telling you about increased loyalty for Corona.
或许与此相关的是，Corona 品牌组合内部也出现了很有意思的变化，对吧？Corona Familiar 的表现实际上非常好，甚至可能比我们想象的品牌体量更大。能否介绍一下 Corona Familiar 的规模有多大、Corona 品牌组合内部你们看到了什么变化，以及有哪些数据在表明 Corona 忠诚度在提升。
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Sure, Robert. As you would expect, we measure our brand health metrics consistently over time and analyze what the intent to buy is, what the purchase intentions are for all of our brands and businesses. That's where we begin to talk about brand loyalty, what first choice consumers would have in buying within our franchise. Now as you point out, while Corona Extra has been somewhat challenged recently, the broader family has done very well.
当然可以，Robert。正如你所预期的，我们持续地衡量品牌健康指标，并分析所有品牌与业务的购买意向与购买倾向。我们谈论品牌忠诚度，起点就是看在我们的品牌体系中，消费者首次购买会选择什么。正如你指出的，尽管 Corona Extra 近期受到了一些挑战，但更广泛的品牌家族表现非常好。
Corona Extra provides an exceptional halo for the overall brand family. Familiar is doing extraordinarily well and one of the top share gainers in the category. And Sunbrew, as you probably know, is the #1 new brand in dollars and the #4 share gainer overall in the category this year. So Corona Extra continues to provide the kind of halo for us for the broader market that has been very valuable for the overall franchise of Corona.
Corona Extra 为整个品牌家族提供了非常出色的“光环效应”。Familiar 表现极为强劲，是该品类份额提升最快的品牌之一。而且，如你所知，Sunbrew 今年在营收上是排名第 1 的新品牌，同时是该品类整体份额提升第 4 的品牌。因此，Corona Extra 仍然在更广泛市场上为我们提供那种极具价值的品牌光环，这对整个 Corona 品牌体系非常重要。
You'll also notice as an example, Corona has been the focus on Major League Baseball. If you watch any of the playoffs, you probably would have noticed that Corona has been all over the baseball playoffs as the official import beer of Major League Baseball. So we continue to feel that Corona Extra is going to be an important part of our business going forward. But it also, as you note, really is a tremendous halo for other SKUs within the franchise.
你还会注意到一个例子，Corona 一直是 Major League Baseball 的焦点。如果你观看了季后赛，你大概会注意到，作为 Major League Baseball 的官方进口啤酒，Corona 在棒球季后赛中随处可见。因此，我们仍然认为 Corona Extra 将在未来持续成为我们业务的重要组成部分。同时，正如你所说，它的确为品牌体系内的其他 SKU 带来了巨大的光环效应。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Dara Mohsenian from Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
下一个问题来自 Morgan Stanley Investment Management 的 Dara Mohsenian。
Dara Mohsenian
Morgan Stanley, Research Division
So Bill, I just want to return to the first question. In your response to the question and prepared remarks, you continue to emphasize that the recent beer depletion weakness you think is caused more by macro factors. Certainly understand there's a big macro component, but you don't seem to attribute much of it to other more secular factors on the beer category, including health and wellness particularly with GLPs, cannabis substitution, lower consumption from younger consumers than past generations.
所以，Bill，我想回到第一个问题。在你对问题的回答和预备发言中，你持续强调近期啤酒去化疲弱更多是由宏观因素导致的。这一点我理解，宏观因素占比很大，但你似乎并未将太多影响归因于啤酒品类中更偏长期性的因素，比如健康与保健趋势（尤其是 GLP）、大麻替代，以及年轻消费者较之以往世代的更低消费。
Just how much impact do you think you're seeing from factors beyond the macro component? And I know you emphasized your strong brand equity and your share gains, but these factors do seem to be impacting the beer category more broadly. So just wanted to understand your thought process there. Has your thinking changed at all on those nonmacro sort of drivers as you look at the trends in recent months?
那么，除宏观因素之外，你认为这些其他因素带来了多大的影响？我知道你强调了强大的品牌资产和份额提升，但这些因素似乎对更广泛的啤酒品类产生了影响。所以我想理解你在这方面的思考。就最近几个月的趋势来看，你对这些非宏观驱动因素的看法是否有任何改变？
And then if I can slip it in part B, just the corporate response to the weaker top line growth we're seeing. Can you talk about strategy tweaks to drive top line growth within a tougher environment? And any opportunities on further productivity beyond what you've already done as you think going forward here?
另外，如果可以加个 B 部分，针对我们所看到的营收增长走弱，公司层面的应对是什么？在更艰难的环境下，为推动营收端增长，你们有哪些策略微调？以及展望未来，除了你们已经做的之外，在进一步提升生产率方面是否还有机会？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Sure. We continue to feel that the structural element is relatively minor in the scheme of things versus the cyclical element. As we've covered numerous times now, there just isn't a lot of evidence that GLP is having much impact whatsoever. I think cannabis could be as you go forward, to be frank, because as consumers are constrained about their spending patterns, they make choices as to where they spend their discretionary funds. But again, today, that's also relatively minor in the scheme of things.
当然。我们依然认为与周期性因素相比，结构性因素在整体中的比重相对较小。正如我们已多次讨论的，几乎没有证据表明 GLP 产生了多大的影响。坦率地说，随着时间推移，大麻可能会产生影响，因为当消费者在支出模式上受到约束时，他们会在可支配资金的用途上做出取舍。但再强调一次，从当前来看，这方面在整体中的影响也相对较小。
Part of what you're seeing with our work in -- Corona Sunbrew is a great example, is going after a younger legal drinking age Gen Z consumer. Part of what we observed is consumers, particularly around spring break, were mixing orange juice and Corona. Our view was we could do something much better than that in real time, which we did. And it's part of the reason why that is the #1 dollar SKU this year and the #4 share gainer in the category.
你在我们所做工作中看到的一部分——Corona Sunbrew 就是一个很好的例子——是面向更年轻、达到法定饮酒年龄的 Gen Z 消费者。我们观察到的一部分现象是，消费者（尤其是在春假期间）会把橙汁与 Corona 混合饮用。我们的看法是，我们可以即时做得更好，而我们也确实做到了。这也是它今年成为营收排名第 1 的 SKU、并在该品类中份额提升排名第 4 的原因之一。
Relative to your question about the top line, one of the things that you historically have seen in other downturns within categories is that some organizations pull back on their marketing spend. We have no intention whatsoever to do that. In fact, in many respects, we're spending more than we ever have. You've probably seen, as I mentioned on the prior question, Corona's presence in Major League Baseball. Modelo with the NFL and with College Football has been very aggressively positioned. And Pacifico is the #1 voice in digital.
至于你关于营收端的问题，在品类经历其他下行周期时，你历来会看到一些公司减少营销投入。我们完全没有这个打算。事实上，在很多方面，我们的支出比以往任何时候都多。正如我在上一个问题中提到的，Corona 在 Major League Baseball 的曝光广泛；Modelo 在 NFL 和 College Football 上的投放非常积极；而 Pacifico 则在数字端拥有行业内“第一声音”。
So I think the important point to all of that is we're continuing to invest in the long-term success of our business because we recognize, at some point, some of these socioeconomic elements will ease and we'll be in a great position to return to more traditional growth profiles that we've seen in the past. Even in this tough environment, we continue to gain share in the market and have been the #1 share gainer. So hopefully, that answers -- that was a complex set of questions, but hopefully that answers them.
所以我认为关键点在于：我们会持续投资于业务的长期成功，因为我们认识到，在某个时点，一些社会经济因素会缓解，届时我们将处在一个极佳位置，回归过去更传统的增长轨迹。即便在这艰难的环境中，我们仍在持续提升市场份额，并且一直是份额提升排名第 1 的公司。希望这能回答你的问题——这是一组复杂的问题，但希望我的回答覆盖到了。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Bonnie Herzog from Goldman Sachs.
下一个问题来自 Goldman Sachs 的 Bonnie Herzog。
Bonnie Herzog
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., Research Division
So I had a question on margins. I'd love to hear more color on the beer op margin expansion in the quarter, I guess, as well as key headwinds to margins in the back half considering your guidance implies a decent step down versus 1H.
我有一个关于利润率的问题。我想了解本季度啤酒业务经营利润率扩张的更多细节；同时考虑到你们的指引意味着下半年相较上半年会有明显回落，请谈谈下半年利润率面临的主要逆风。
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Yes. Thanks, Bonnie. Look, I mean, I'd say we feel pretty good about the margin profile that we laid out last month in terms of what our expectation is for the year. If I think about all the elements to your question there, let me just start by talking about headwinds for the second half.
好的，谢谢你，Bonnie。总的来说，对于我们上月给出的全年利润率展望，我们感觉不错。针对你问题中的各个方面，我先从下半年的逆风讲起。
First of all, the second half of the year, as you know, is always kind of our lower volume year. And even though we changed guidance for the full year, that doesn't change our expectations for how the first half of the year comes in versus the second half of the year from a volumetric standpoint. And as you know, in the second half of the year, that's, as I say, the lower volume half. It's also when we do some of our maintenance. So just traditionally, that's going to be when we have our lowest margins of the fiscal year.
首先，如你所知，我们的下半年一贯是低销量期。尽管我们调整了全年指引，但这并未改变我们对上半年与下半年在销量结构上的预期。下半年不仅量更低，同时也是我们安排部分检修的时期。因此，按照传统，下半年通常是财年利润率最低的阶段。
As I think about, again, sticking on margin, the headwinds that we noted last month still remain. We have about 100 basis points of margin headwinds related to fixed costs and incremental tariffs. We have about 60 basis points related to, as Bill just mentioned, keeping our marketing investment in line. Oh, by the way, I misspoke just now. There's 100 basis points with fixed overhead and then there's another 60 points on incremental margins. So those are some pretty big headwinds. They get offset a little bit by some lower comp and benefits in the second half of the year, but that really is the margin profile for the full year.
再谈利润率，上月我们提到的逆风仍然存在。大约有 100 个基点来自固定成本与新增关税的压力；约 60 个基点与我们（如 Bill 刚提到的）维持营销投入有关。哦，顺便说一下，我刚才口误了：固定间接成本这块是 100 个基点，另外新增项还有 60 个基点。以上都是较大的逆风。下半年部分薪酬与福利的下降会略有对冲，但这基本就是我们全年的利润率画像。
Operator
运营人员
Next question today is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo Securities.
今天的下一个问题来自 Wells Fargo Securities 的 Chris Carey。
Christopher Carey
Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Garth, just a follow-up. Are you seeing a pickup in inflation in the back half? Or is that specifically around the seasonal volume assumptions? Just to clarify something on Bonnie's question.
Garth，我再追问一下。你们是否看到下半年的通胀回升？还是主要与季节性销量假设相关？想就 Bonnie 的问题澄清一下。
But then the question that I had today was actually around the Wine and Spirits margins. I think going to the second half of the year, you need to believe that these margins are going to turn positive, more than a little positive to get to the full year guidance. So what do we have to believe in improvement from the first half into the back half to see that level of improvement to get to that full year outlook, maybe some of the key drivers?
不过我今天主要的问题是关于 Wine and Spirits 的利润率。我认为进入下半年后，该业务的利润率需要转正且不止小幅转正，才能实现全年指引。那么从上半年到下半年，我们需要相信哪些改善会发生，才能达到全年展望？能否谈谈关键驱动因素？
And then as you think about going into fiscal '27, there was an expectation that this business could return to a low 20s operating margin, which seems to be embedded in consensus expectations. Is that still the right way to think about it? And again I would ask it in a similar vein as the back half of this year. What do we have to believe that, that outcome of substantial margin improvement in fiscal '27 is achieved?
另外，展望 2027 财年，市场普遍预期该业务可恢复至 20% 出头的营业利润率。这一思路是否仍然正确？同样的问题，若要在 2027 财年实现显著的利润率改善，我们需要相信哪些条件会满足？
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Sure. So just on the first question related to the beer margins as a follow-up to Bonnie's question, we're not really seeing any tick up in inflation in the second half of the year. So really it's just the drivers that I outlined.
好的。先回答与啤酒利润率相关、对 Bonnie 问题的跟进：我们并未看到下半年通胀回升的迹象。因此主要还是我刚才提到的那些驱动因素在起作用。
As it relates to Wine and Spirits for this fiscal year and the improvement that you'll see in the second half of the year, a couple of things that are going on there which make the full year and certainly the first half of the year a bit messy, if you will. So first of all, the converse of what I laid out for beer is true for Wine and Spirits, which is the bulk of our volume and sales occur in the second half of the year. So we will see benefits from additional volume in the second half. And that also tends to be when you see vintage releases related to our DTC business, which tend to lead to higher sales and higher margins.
至于本财年的 Wine and Spirits 以及你们将在下半年看到的改善，有几件事导致全年、尤其是上半年的表现有些“凌乱”。首先，与啤酒相反，Wine and Spirits 的销量和销售主要集中在下半年。因此下半年我们会受益于额外的放量。同时，这一时期也是我们 DTC 业务相关年份酒的发布窗口，通常会带来更高的销售与更高的利润率。
And then back to the messiness of the first half of the year, as we laid out at the beginning of this fiscal year, there are a number of factors driving performance this year specific to the first half related to distributor payments as well as some post-transaction inventory trips between ourselves and with our distributor partners. And therefore, that's what's made the first half of the year sort of look like it is and why we feel confident that we can turn that in the second half of the year and achieve the operating profit that we laid out in April.
再回到上半年“凌乱”的原因，正如我们在本财年之初所说明的，上半年有若干特定因素影响业绩，包括经销商款项安排，以及交易完成后我们与经销商伙伴之间的一些库存调拨。因此，这些因素导致了上半年的表观表现；也正因如此，我们有信心在下半年扭转，并实现我们在四月份所给出的营业利润目标。
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
And just to add on to that. We made clear at the beginning of the year that the focus in the Wine and Spirits business this year was to get the top line in line and to beat the market. We have now beaten in the market for 6 straight months. Our business in Q2, very similar to Q1 on an apples-to-apples basis, was up 2% driven by Kim and Mi CAMPO. Mi CAMPO, you may remember, was a brand we started from scratch several years ago.
另外补充一点。今年年初我们已经明确，Wine and Spirits 业务今年的重点是让营收端重回正轨并跑赢市场。到目前为止我们已经连续 6 个月跑赢市场。按同口径比较，我们第二季度的业务表现与第一季度相似，同比增长 2%，主要由 Kim 和 Mi CAMPO 拉动。你可能还记得，Mi CAMPO 是我们几年前从零开始打造的一个品牌。
And the 12-week numbers in Circana show Ruffino up 2 points, The Prisoner up 4, Unshackled up 11 and Harvey & Harriet, up roughly 23. So while we're not going to give any specific guidance yet for fiscal '27, I think we're very pleased with the development of the top line in the Wine and Spirits business. And we've returned that business to a strong share gaining position and have been presenting those results for the last several months. So we feel pretty comfortable with how that is developing and how the team has executed against that strategy.
此外，Circana 的 12 周数据表明，Ruffino 上升 2 个点，The Prisoner 上升 4 个点，Unshackled 上升 11 个点，Harvey & Harriet 大约上升 23 个点。因此，尽管我们尚未对 2027 财年给出具体指引，但我认为我们对 Wine and Spirits 业务在营收端的进展非常满意。该业务已重新回到强劲提份额的位置，并且在过去几个月中我们一直在展示相关成果。我们对当前的发展态势以及团队对该战略的执行情况感到相当放心。
Operator
运营人员
Next question today is coming from Andrea Teixeira from JPMorgan.
今天的下一个问题来自 JPMorgan 的 Andrea Teixeira。
Drew Levine
JPMorgan Chase & Co, Research Division
This is Drew Levine on for Andrea. I wanted to ask on the beer inventory rebalance, maybe if you could provide some context on inventory on hand to distributors now versus before the rebalance and what gives you confidence that this was sort of more of a onetime event, I guess, rather than something that we should be more concerned about going forward.
我是替 Andrea 提问的 Drew Levine。我想问一下关于啤酒库存再平衡的问题。能否介绍一下当前分销商手头库存与再平衡前相比的大致情况？以及是什么让你们有信心认为这更像是一次性事件，而不是未来需要更加担心的持续性问题？
And with that visibility that ships and depletes, I think the guidance is to largely track in second half. I think typically there's a bit more depletes second half versus first half. So just any comments on visibility to that.
在出货与去化（shipments 与 depletions）的匹配方面，你们的指引认为下半年基本会同步。我理解通常下半年的去化会比上半年更高。对此可否谈谈你们的可见性判断？
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
So look, I can start and then Bill can weigh in. So first of all, the ship/dep true-up that happened in Q2 related to our beer business was a result of a couple of things. One was that, as typical with every year, we tend to ship in more in Q1, Q2 ahead of the key summer selling season. So that's just normal operating procedure. This year, as we went through the summer selling season, the takeaway wasn't in line with expectations. Therefore, distributors had a little bit more than expected as we exited this summer.
我先来回答，然后请 Bill 补充。首先，第二季度我们啤酒业务发生的出货/去化对账（ship/dep true-up）是由几件事情共同造成的。其一，与每年一样，我们通常会在第一、二季度于关键的夏季销售季之前多发一些货，这是正常的运营流程。今年在经历夏季销售季时，终端提货未达预期，因此在夏季结束时分销商手上的库存略高于预期。
Now the second thing that drove it is, the ship/dep true-up, is that again we typically overship in the first half of the year to ensure that there's product on the shelves. And then there's a little bit of rebalancing that occurs in the second half of the year, usually in Q3. And so we pulled that rebalancing into Q2 versus Q3. So that's really what drove it. As we sit there and look at inventory levels with distributors, they're at a good spot right now. We feel good about where our inventory levels are relative to where they are historically.
其次，促成这次出货/去化对账的另一个因素是，我们通常在上半年多发一些货以确保货架有足量产品，然后在下半年（通常是第三季度）做一些再平衡。这一次我们把再平衡从第三季度提前到了第二季度，这就是主要原因。就目前与分销商的库存水平来看，处在一个不错的位置；相较历史区间，我们对当前库存水平感到满意。
And I think it's important for us to note that the rebalancing of inventories really occurred strictly with distributors. There's been no retailer destocking. We continue to gain PODs in shelf space. We have very good confidence in our ability to continue to generate significant shelf share gains as one would expect for a portfolio that's growing, as Bill highlighted before, in 49 out of 50 states and with the #1 beer brand by dollar sales. So we feel good about where we are for our inventory levels, and that's why we have confidence that for the balance of the year, shipments and depletions will be aligned with one another.
我认为需要强调的是，这次库存再平衡严格发生在分销商层面，零售端没有去库存。我们的货架陈列点（PODs）仍在增长，货架份额也在显著提升；鉴于我们的产品组合在 50 个州中的 49 个实现增长、且拥有按美元销售额计的全美第 1 啤酒品牌（正如 Bill 之前强调的），我们对继续提升货架份额的能力很有信心。因此，我们对当前的库存水平感到满意，这也是我们有信心在今年剩余时间里让出货与去化保持一致的原因。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Bill Kirk from ROTH Capital Partners.
下一个问题来自 ROTH Capital Partners 的 Bill Kirk。
William Kirk
ROTH Capital Partners, LLC, Research Division
So price pack architecture was a big focus before this recent deceleration. So I guess how has the deceleration impacted the plans for different pack sizes and price points? And maybe if you had been further along in those price pack architecture plans, do you think depletions performance would have been better?
在最近的放缓之前，price pack architecture 一直是重点。那么这次放缓对不同包装规格与价位的规划有何影响？以及如果当时你们在这些 price pack architecture 计划上推进得更快一些，你认为去化表现会不会更好？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Well, price pack architecture is something that we've said we're going to spend a fair amount of time on. If we had known all the socioeconomic issues, would we have gotten that out sooner? I hope the answer would have been yes. But the reality is this is a good long-term play for the business. Many of you have heard us talk before, we think there are some exceptionally good businesses at putting that together, meaning when you go in a store, you have an opportunity. No matter how much money you have to spend, you have a product available to you.
我们已经说过，会在 price pack architecture（价格与包装架构）上投入相当多的时间。如果我们事先知道所有这些社会经济问题，会不会更早推出相关方案？我希望答案是会的。但现实是，这对业务而言是一个良好的长期策略。很多人听我们讲过，我们认为把这件事做好的一些企业非常出色；意思是当你走进商店时，无论预算多少，都能找到适合你的产品。
Our focus on price pack architecture and smaller sizes and things of that ilk make sure that we would have something that our consumer would be able to buy depending on what they have available to them. So we're working aggressively on that in a number of fronts and with a number of brands. And that process is going to continue because we think that's not only important now, but that's also important for the long run as well.
我们在 price pack architecture、小规格等方面的聚焦，旨在确保消费者能根据手头可用预算买到对应的产品。因此，我们正就此在多个战线、多个品牌上积极推进。这一进程会持续下去，因为我们认为这不仅当下重要，长期同样重要。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Filippo Falorni from Citigroup.
下一个问题来自 Citigroup 的 Filippo Falorni。
Filippo Falorni
Citigroup Inc., Research Division
So I wanted to ask first on the beer margin and beer cost savings. Particularly, you realized $65 million in cost savings in Q2, $105 million in year-to-date. Any sense of what's the target for the year? And if you can give a little bit more color on the opportunities there on the beer cost saving front.
我首先想问啤酒业务的利润率与成本节约。特别是，你们在第二季度实现了 6,500 万美元的成本节约，年初至今为 1.05 亿美元。全年有没有目标的大致范围？以及能否更多介绍啤酒端成本节约的机会点？
And then just a follow-up on the prior question. On tariffs, can you give us a sense of how much you realized in the first half in terms of tariff headwinds and how much to expect for the balance of the year?
另外就上一个问题追问一下。关于关税，能否提供上半年关税带来的逆风大致规模，以及全年剩余时间的预期影响？
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So just on the cost savings. First of all, I'd say that this is just -- we continue to reap the benefits of this evolution from being a builder to an operator. As you highlighted, since our Investor Day a couple of years ago, we've delivered over $500 million worth of cost savings. And again as you noted, so far this year, we've delivered over $100 million in savings.
好的，先谈成本节约。首先，我要说我们持续受益于从“建设者”向“运营者”的转型。正如你提到的，自几年前的投资者日以来，我们已累计实现超过 5 亿美元的成本节约；而且如你所言，今年到目前为止，我们已实现逾 1 亿美元的节约。
We continue to find ways to make our operations more efficient. A lot of that so far is focused on supplier and sourcing optimization and material and cost innovation. Included in that would be our move to 60-foot railcars and our double stacking within railcars as well as a big initiative around suppliers and terms, if you will. So this is going to continue to be a focus for us over time. We continue to think that there will be opportunities for us in logistics and manufacturing optimization.
我们持续寻找提升运营效率的方法。目前很大一部分集中在供应商与采购优化、材料与成本创新。包括改用 60 英尺铁路货车车厢、车厢内的双层装载，以及围绕供应商与条款的一系列重要举措。长期来看，这些都会是我们的重点方向。我们认为在物流与制造优化上仍有机会可挖。
We don't provide quarterly or annual guidance related to our cost savings initiatives, but we will continue to provide updates on a quarterly basis once we achieve those savings.
我们不会就成本节约举措提供季度或年度的前瞻指引，但一旦实现节约，我们会在每个季度更新披露相关进展。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Carlos Laboy from HSBC.
下一个问题来自 HSBC 的 Carlos Laboy。
Carlos Alberto Laboy
HSBC Global Investment Research
Bill, maybe you can go back a little bit and talk to us about the brand positioning of Corona itself. How might you be refreshing or tweaking it? And the reason I'm asking the question is because we've had over 40 years of beach rest and relaxation.
Bill，也许你可以回溯一下，谈谈 Corona 本身的品牌定位。你们会如何焕新或微调？我之所以这样问，是因为我们已经有 40 多年“海滩、休憩、放松”的叙事了。
And I'm wondering, has that become too sedentary an interpretation of beach for a premium beer consumer that's turning to more active lifestyle positioning, so for example, Michelob ULTRA, right? And even in other countries where the Corona brand is doing very well, it's sort of been reinterpreting beach more as an active lifestyle and as a regeneration concept. What are your thoughts on how you tweak that brand if it needs to be?
我在想，对于正转向更加“积极生活方式”定位的高端啤酒消费者而言，这种对“海滩”的解读是否过于静态了？比如，Michelob ULTRA，对吧？甚至在 Corona 表现很好的其他国家，也在把“海滩”重新诠释为一种更为主动的生活方式与“焕活”概念。如果需要的话，你认为应该如何微调这个品牌？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
So we're going to start -- we didn't answer the last half of the last question. Garth is going to cover the tariff, and then I'll come back and answer your question, Carlos.
我们先从——上一个问题的后半部分还没答——开始。Garth 会先讲关税，然后我再回来回答你的问题，Carlos。
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Yes. So just on the tariffs, just to be clear on that, right? So in our beer business, we're expecting the tariff impact to be about $70 million this year and on the wine business for that to be about $20 million. I would say in terms of how that occurs throughout the year, I mean, that will largely track volume. So that's the way to think about the impact on a half year-to-half year basis.
好的，关于关税，澄清一下：在我们的啤酒业务，今年预计关税影响约 7,000 万美元；在葡萄酒业务，大约 2,000 万美元。至于在全年中的分布，大体会随销量节奏走。因此按上下半年来看，可据此来理解其影响。
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
So progressing to the current question relative to Corona. You may have most of the evolution this year of the Corona advertising proposition to really return to the focus being on the beer. I would argue that we probably got a little too celebrity heavy for a window of time. And we brought that Corona essence right back to where its iconic value has been, which is the beach.
回到当前关于 Corona 的问题。今年你们应该已经看到我们在 Corona 广告主张上的演进——把焦点真正拉回到“啤酒本身”。我会说，在一段时间里我们可能对“名人”依赖得有点多。现在我们把 Corona 的品牌精髓带回到其标志性价值所在——“海滩”。
Now the beach lifestyle, I would argue, fits into many things that consumers are looking for today. They're looking for refreshment, That's, first and foremost, what Corona is known for. They are looking for things that are different in experimentation, particularly younger consumer. I'd say Sunbrew is a great example of us playing right into that speech and attitude. And that goes right to a more active lifestyle that Corona Sunbrew has been presented against.
而“海滩生活方式”，我认为契合当今消费者追求的许多要素：他们追求清爽——这是 Corona 首先为人所知的；他们也追求与众不同、愿意尝新，尤其是年轻消费者。我会说，Sunbrew 正是我们抓住这种表达与调性的绝佳例子，也正因此，Corona Sunbrew 的呈现更贴近一种更为主动的生活方式。
So I think the important part for this is one of the things that both Corona and Modelo and currently Pacifico is developing is we haven't flip-flopped our positioning over time. Many organizations have a tendency to flip-flop their positioning every couple of years whenever there's a change of brand management. Our approach has not been that. Our approach is to stay focused on what we feel are the strong essences of those brands with some minor evolution as part of the marketing development.
我认为重要的一点是：无论是 Corona、Modelo，还是当前在推进中的 Pacifico，我们并未在定位上来回摇摆。很多公司往往在品牌管理层更替后，每隔几年就会反复更换定位。我们的做法不是这样。我们坚持聚焦于这些品牌最强的“精髓”，在此基础上通过小幅演进来推动营销发展。
And I would argue Sunbrew is a great example of where we can leverage that sort of beach lifestyle and refreshment value of Corona Extra into a new and exciting piece of business for us in the form of Sunbrew.
我会说，Sunbrew 是一个很好的示例：我们把 Corona Extra 所代表的“海滩生活方式”与“清爽价值”转化为一个崭新且令人兴奋的业务形态——Sunbrew。
Operator
运营人员
Next question today is coming from Kaumil Gajrawala from Jefferies.
今天的下一个问题来自 Jefferies 的 Kaumil Gajrawala。
Kaumil Gajrawala
Jefferies LLC, Research Division
I'd like to follow up on two questions. The first is you have these obvious economic challenges in addition with Hispanic consumer. If you're twice the share with Gen Z, Gen Z also has twice the amount of unemployment. It sounds like your responses to what to do is to keep up on marketing and such.
我想跟进两个问题。首先，你们在 Hispanic 消费者方面叠加面临显著的经济挑战。如果你们在 Gen Z 中的份额是行业平均的两倍，那么 Gen Z 的失业率也是两倍。听起来你们的应对更多是继续加大营销等投入。
But is there anything you're looking to do to make it more affordable, get them to go back out? Just not necessarily on the marketing and the branding side, I think it sounds fine there, but rather what can you do about it if they don't have as much money, they're not as willing to go out?
但你们是否考虑做些什么来提升可负担性、让他们重新外出消费？不一定是营销和品牌层面——那部分听起来没问题——而是在他们手头没那么多钱、也不太愿意外出的情况下，你们能做什么？
And then the second question on margins. I get the 160 bps of sort of natural drag, which you talked about. But the split between depletes and shipments isn't expected to be nearly as substantial. So I'm just curious why the margin guidance is still maybe a bit lower than we would have guessed given the beat this quarter.
其次是关于利润率。我理解你们提到的约 160 个基点的“自然拖累”。但去化与出货之间的错位预计并没有那么大。所以我好奇，鉴于本季度超预期，为何利润率指引看起来仍然比我们想象的要低一些？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Sure. Why don't I take the first half. Garth, you can take the second. Relative to the whole question of affordability with where -- when consumers are somewhat constrained, you probably all are quite aware, we have repositioned Oro, Modelo Oro because our belief is the light beer comes is looking for a bit of a different value proposition than it would be for core Modelo as an example. We've done the same now with Premier, and we're positioning that again at a somewhat lower price point from where those have been historically.
当然。我来回答前半部分，后半部分交给 Garth。关于可负担性——当消费者有一定约束时——你们可能都注意到，我们已对 Oro、Modelo Oro 进行了重新定位，因为我们认为淡啤酒消费者所寻求的价值主张与核心的 Modelo 有些不同。我们现在也对 Premier 做了同样的事情，并将其定在较历史更低的价位区间。
We believe those are going to be valuable. First of all, it speaks to where the consumer of high-end light beers want to spend and at the price point they want to spend. And I think that's going to position us well. Early days on Oro, which started earlier, have been quite positive. And we're pleased to see that development both in terms of consumer takeaway as well as in terms of our ability to get more features and displays against that business.
我们认为这些举措会有价值。首先，它们契合高端淡啤消费者愿意花费的场景与他们期望的价格点。我认为这会让我们的定位更具优势。更早启动的 Oro 的早期表现相当积极；无论是消费者终端提货，还是我们在功能展示与陈列资源上的获取能力，都有良好进展。
The last thing I would say, and it relates to one of the prior questions, is the price pack architecture. We briefly touched on that. But having the opportunity for the consumer who is financially constrained to find one of our iconic brands at a price point which they can afford at the current time is an important part of why price pack architecture is one of our key focuses now and will be going forward.
我最后想说与先前问题相关的一点——price pack architecture。我们之前简要提过。让财务受限的消费者，能够在当下可负担的价格点上买到我们的标志性品牌，这是我们将 price pack architecture 作为当前与未来关键关注点的重要原因。
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
Yes. And as it relates to the margin profile, just you've reiterated what we talked about earlier just around the first half versus the second half, second half always being a lower margin profile as it relates to lower volume through our breweries as well as that's when we do our normal maintenance CapEx.
好的。至于利润率画像，你其实重申了我们先前谈到的上、下半年差异——下半年一贯是较低利润率时期，既因为酿造厂的产量更低，也因为那是我们进行常规维护性 CapEx 的时间窗口。
Operator
运营人员
[Operator Instructions] Our next question today is coming from Kevin Grundy BNP Paribas.
[运营指引] 我们今天的下一个问题来自 BNP Paribas 的 Kevin Grundy。
Kevin Grundy
BNP Paribas Exane, Research Division
I wanted to ask about the suitability of the 39% to 40% beer operating margin target. I think there's a lot of questions among investors about that and the sustainability of it. Very clear, I guess, in terms of positioning of management in terms of it's cyclical and volumes are going to come back. But what if they don't? Like what if volumes stay down low single digits?
我想问的是 39% 到 40% 啤酒业务经营利润率目标的适配性。我认为投资者对这一目标及其可持续性存在很多疑问。管理层的立场很明确：这属于周期性，销量会回升。但如果不会呢？如果销量保持在低个位数下滑呢？
And a couple of important points of context here. I think for a really long time, as you guys are well aware, volumes are outstanding, up high single digits. There's a certain degree of operating leverage in the business that you're able to sustain the 39% to 40%. But now it's down and potentially it could stay down. And I think there was a worry over a long period of time, also as you guys are well aware, it was a constraint on the multiple. And that is the weak volume trends in the category, which had been in decline for the better part of 15 years.
这里再补充两点背景。长期以来——你们也很清楚——销量表现非常出色，维持在高个位数增长，业务由此获得一定的经营杠杆，支撑了 39% 到 40% 的利润率。但现在销量回落，而且可能会维持低位。长期以来也有一个担忧——你们也清楚——这会限制估值倍数，那就是该品类疲弱的销量趋势，过去 15 年的大部分时间里都在下滑。
And there was always a worry that you're going to get this mean reversion for Constellation, how long can they continue to gain share. So that's all kind of a big wind up for where we are. Category volumes are down mid-single. You guys are doing better than that and the pace of share gains have slowed. But what is the -- how plausible is it that you can sustain that level of margin if you're going to be facing year-after-year operating deleverage of volumes down sort of low single digits? So sorry for all of that, but I appreciate your thoughts.
大家一直担心 Constellation 会出现“均值回归”：你们还能持续提份额多久？这就是我们所处位置的整体铺垫。整个品类销量下滑中个位数，你们表现好于行业，但提份额的速度在放缓。如果未来年复一年都面临销量低个位数下滑、由此带来的经营去杠杆，你们维持那一利润率水平的可行性有多大？抱歉问题很长，但也期待你们的看法。
Garth Hankinson
Executive VP & CFO
No, thanks for the question. Right. So look, 39% to 40% operating margins have been best-in-class. And even where we're going to be this year with some deleveraging, we'll still have best-in-class operating margins in all beverage alcohol, certainly within beer. As we think about the impact going beyond FY '26, I mean, I think we've been really clear is that we're not in a position where we want to give guidance beyond FY '26 at this point. We want to see how the macroeconomic and socioeconomic conditions play out and then see how the consumer responds to that.
谢谢你的问题。关于 39% 到 40% 的经营利润率，这一直是行业最优之一。即便今年出现一定去杠杆，我们在整体酒类，尤其是啤酒领域，仍将保持行业领先的经营利润率。至于 FY ’26 之后的影响，我们已经非常明确：目前不会给出 FY ’26 之后的指引。我们需要先观察宏观与社会经济环境如何演变，并看消费者将如何回应。
And then we'll have a better sense for where margins go from here. Obviously, there are multiple things that will go into our margin profile, inclusive of depreciation that comes online with some of the investments that we've made and we'll make. As I mentioned earlier, we're looking at ways to -- or we're reviewing our footprint, both our current footprint and our expected footprint, to see what the opportunities are there. We have a robust savings agenda every year that help margins and certainly offset things like inflation.
到那时我们会对利润率的走向有更清晰的认识。显然，影响利润率画像的因素很多，包括我们既有与未来投资带来的折旧。正如我先前提到的，我们正在评估并审视现有与规划中的产能布局，寻找潜在机会。我们每年都有系统性的降本议程，以帮助提升利润率，并对冲诸如通胀之类的影响。
Again, we do think that we'll return to growth and that will be beneficial for margins going forward. So there are a lot of things. The normal headwinds and the normal tailwinds should be available to us going forward. But we'll provide more color on where we think margins are as we go through this year and, again, see how the environment plays out and how the consumer responds.
此外，我们确实认为会重返增长，这将有利于未来的利润率表现。总体来看，常见的逆风与顺风因素仍将继续存在。我们会在今年推进过程中，结合外部环境与消费者反应的实际演变，进一步提供关于利润率前景的更多信息。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Chris Pitcher from Rothschild & Co Redburn.
下一个问题来自 Rothschild & Co Redburn 的 Chris Pitcher。
Chris Pitcher
Rothschild & Co Redburn, Research Division
Can I ask a question about the Wine and Spirits in the second half? I mean, it's obviously quite difficult trying to compare against the base that's disrupted by the divestments. But Q3 last year was a big destocking quarter. And based on the positive depletions in the current quarter, is it a fair assumption to assume that inventories are at a good level at your wholesalers, and therefore, you could see quite a benefit in the third quarter just from a normalization of that destocking?
我想问一下下半年关于 Wine and Spirits 的情况。显然，由于资产剥离导致的基数扰动，使得同比比较很困难。但去年第三季度是一个大规模去库存的季度。基于本季度积极的去化表现，是否可以合理假设你们的批发商库存处于良好水平？因此，第三季度是否可能仅凭去库存的正常化而带来明显的利好？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Yes. Our inventory levels in our Wine and Spirits business are in a quite a good spot. Part of what you heard Garth speak of earlier, which was some of the distributor alignment after the divestiture, part of what we focused our attention on is to getting and making sure that our inventory levels of our ongoing business were in the right spot. And they are. Again, our focus at this point -- so I don't think inventory is going to be an issue going forward in the least.
是的。我们的 Wine and Spirits 业务库存水平处在相当不错的位置。正如你之前听到 Garth 提到的，资产剥离后的部分经销商对齐工作，我们关注的一个重点就是确保在营业务的库存水平到达合适区间。现在确实如此。再强调一下，就目前的关注点而言——我认为库存在未来不会构成任何问题。
But we're very focused on continuing to win in the market, as we have for the last several months, based on the strong performance of some of our critical brands like the Prisoner and Kim Crawford and Ruffino and Mi CAMPO in particular. And that's really going to be the continuing focus of that business as we said it would be at the beginning of this fiscal year.
不过，我们更专注于像过去几个月那样，继续在市场上取胜，主要依托包括 The Prisoner、Kim Crawford、Ruffino 和 Mi CAMPO 在内的一些关键品牌的强劲表现。这也将如我们在本财年初所说，继续成为该业务的核心关注点。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen.
下一个问题来自 TD Cowen 的 Robert Moskow。
Xin Ma
TD Cowen, Research Division
This is Victor on for Rob Moskow. I want to ask about the feasibility of the 1% to 2% pricing algo. Given the macro pressures around the Hispanic consumer, are these price increases more in low Hispanic markets? And also on the negative mix impact from the prepared remarks, could you give us some more color on what this was from? Could this be from Corona Familiar's strong demand and the brand's larger bottle size?
我是代 Rob Moskow 提问的 Victor。我想问 1% 到 2% 定价算法的可行性。考虑到围绕 Hispanic 消费者的宏观压力，这些提价是否更多发生在 Hispanic 占比较低的市场？另外，关于预备发言里提到的负面结构影响，能否进一步说明来源？是否可能与 Corona Familiar 的强劲需求及其更大瓶型有关？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
So our expectation around pricing is what we have always done, which is we look at it SKU by SKU, market by market. And we still expect 1% to 2% to be what our overall delivery will be over the course of this fiscal year. Again, a lot of that goes right back to what we've said before, which is there are pockets of opportunity and we go after those pockets of opportunity.
关于定价，我们的预期仍是沿用一贯做法——逐个 SKU、逐个市场来评估。我们仍预计在本财年整体实现 1% 到 2% 的价格提升。再次强调，这很大程度上回到我们之前所说的：哪里有机会窗口，我们就针对性地去抓取。
I think a great example, and I'd be remiss if I didn't point this out, that as Garth mentioned earlier, Modelo Especial remains the #1 top-selling beer by dollars in the United States by tracked channels. It's at a roughly 10% share, and that's 2 full share points ahead of the next largest brand. Some of that also translates over into the on-premise. And the on-premise has gone from #5 to #2 in terms of draft.
我认为有个很好的例子，不得不提——正如 Garth 先前提到的，Modelo Especial 依然是美国受追踪渠道中按美元销售额计的销量第 1 的啤酒。其份额约为 10%，领先第 2 名整整 2 个份额点。其中一部分优势也延伸到了 on-premise（餐饮店内），其生啤排名已从第 5 升至第 2。
So again, those kinds of things where you have that strong brand equity allows you to look specifically on a market-by-market basis and get to that 1% to 2% algorithm that we've consistently talked about. As you would expect, we always look at, is the market available to us? And we will do the right thing on a market-by-market basis no matter what. But we still believe that 1% to 2% is sort of the algorithm that we expect to remain within.
因此，再次说明，正是这种强大的品牌资产，使我们能够在逐个市场维度上具体施策，从而实现我们一直强调的 1% 到 2% 的定价算法。正如你所预期的，我们始终评估各地市场的可承载性，并在每个市场上采取合适做法。不管怎样，我们仍相信 1% 到 2% 将是我们预期保持的区间。
Operator
运营人员
Next question is coming from Chris Barnes from Deutsche Bank.
下一个问题来自 Deutsche Bank 的 Chris Barnes。
Christopher Barnes
Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
I just wanted to follow up on your depletions expectations for the second half. I appreciate the 1% to 2% comment on pricing and your expectation for shipments and depletions in absolute cases to track closely. But that seems to imply a pretty material step-down in the second half in depletions growth. So could you maybe unpack the drivers there?
我想跟进一下你们对下半年去化的预期。我理解你们关于 1% 至 2% 定价的评论，以及你们预计出货量与去化量在绝对箱数上将保持紧密跟随。但这似乎意味着下半年去化增长将明显回落。能否拆解一下背后的驱动因素？
William Newlands
President, CEO & Director
Yes. We don't give forward expectations on a quarter-by-quarter basis, but here's what we'd say. We've seen unprecedented volatility and there's very mixed results.
是的。我们不会逐季给出前瞻预期，但我们可以这样说：我们看到了前所未有的波动，且结果非常不一致。
One of the things that we track very carefully is ZIP code data. And the results that you are seeing in high Hispanic ZIP code areas is significantly worse than what you see in the general market. We've seen some positive uptick in some of our top 5 states within the general market, where the general market ZIP codes are a higher proportion of the overall consumer base.
我们非常密切跟踪的一项指标是 ZIP code 数据。在 Hispanic 占比高的 ZIP code 区域，结果显著弱于整体市场。在我们的前五大州中，一些以“普通市场”ZIP code 占消费者基盘更高比例的地区，出现了积极的改善。
So we're cautiously, and I would stress that word again, cautiously optimistic that we've hit the bottom here. But the volatility, as I said, is unprecedented and the results are very mixed. The state of California has been the single biggest problem as some of those 4,000 calorie jobs, as we often talk of, haven't materialized to the rate that we would have expected.
因此我们是谨慎——我再次强调，是“谨慎”——乐观，认为可能已见底。但正如我所说，波动前所未有，结果非常分化。California 州仍是最大问题，因为我们常提到的那些“4,000 卡路里”工作机会，并未以我们预期的速度落地。
So part of that question is going to be, will some of that construction opportunities reinvigorate? Because that's good for the beer business and that's particularly good for us given our strength in that particular market.
因此问题的一部分在于：部分建筑类机会是否会重新活跃？因为那对啤酒业务有利，鉴于我们在该细分市场的优势，对我们尤为有利。
But all in, we don't expect a radical change nor have we projected, based on our overall guidance, a radical change in the back half of the year.
但总体而言，我们不预期会有剧烈变化，基于我们的整体指引，我们也未假设下半年会出现剧烈变化。
But we're going to watch that very closely and see if there's any improvement in the volatility that's been going on in the overall marketplace over the last several months.
不过我们会密切关注，观察过去数月在整体市场上出现的这种波动是否会有所改善。
Operator
运营人员
Thank you. We have reached the end of our question-and-answer session, and that does conclude today's question-and-answer session and our telecast. You may disconnect your line at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.
谢谢大家。我们的问答环节到此结束，今天的问答与转播到此告一段落。各位现在可以结束接入，祝您今天愉快。感谢各位的参与。