I.H.181.Warren Buffett.Alignment
巴菲特有一套对齐的方法，是从人性最基本的层面（对于风险的敏感性）不断往外扩展，就是我们之前提的“一致性”，王阳明说的“知行合一”要差一些，更好的说法是对齐（alignment），alignment和人工智能的开创性论文：Attention Is All You Need，两者加在一起是巴菲特思想的现代化解释。
But that — I don’t want to bet on anybody else. I mean, in the end, we want to understand, ourselves, where we think a business is going. And if somebody tells us the business is going to change a lot, in Wall Street, they love to tell you that, you know, that’s great opportunity.
但问题在于——我不想押注任何其他人。归根结底，我们希望亲自理解一家企业将走向何处。如果有人告诉我们这门生意将发生巨变，华尔街最爱说“那是巨大机会”。
They don’t think it’s a great opportunity when Wall Street itself is going to change a lot, incidentally. (Laughter)
顺便说一句，当华尔街自身要发生巨变时，他们却并不认为那是巨大机会。（笑声）
But they — you know, it’s a great opportunity. We don’t think it’s an opportunity at all. I mean, we — it scares the hell out of us. Because we don’t know how things are going to change.
但他们——你知道，总说那是巨大机会。而我们根本不这么看。坦白讲——这会把我们吓坏。因为我们不知道事情会如何变化。
快速变化往往导致不理性的行为，我自己一直有一个简单的假设，人都是野生动物，对风险极其敏感，那些快速接近的事物很可能引起的不理性的行为。
The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.
逻辑很简单：如果你未来将成为股票的净买入者——无论是直接用你自己的钱，还是间接地（通过你所持有、正在回购股份的公司）——当股价上涨时你会受损，当股价下跌时你会受益。然而情绪常常使问题复杂化：大多数人——包括那些未来会成为净买入者的人——看到股价上涨会感到欣慰。这类股东很像一位通勤者，仅仅因为自己的油箱还存着一天的油，就在油价上涨后感到高兴。
3、《2025-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
I’ve always told my kids that their sound isn’t my sound, but you don’t necessarily find it on the first job you take. But if you get lucky like I did, you find it when you’re very young and then you just keep doing it. Don’t worry too much about starting salaries and be very careful who you work for because you will take on the habits of the people around you. There are certain jobs you shouldn’t take.
我一直告诉孩子们：他们的“声音”不是我的“声音”，而且你未必能在第一份工作里就找到它。但如果你足够幸运，像我一样很早就找到，那就持续去做。别过分在意起薪，并且要谨慎选择你的雇主，因为你会沾染身边人的习惯。有些工作，你就不该去做。
Trying to change things in government is an interesting proposition in the country because you get self-selection in terms of the people that go into government and continue in it. And to some extent they keep having to make decisions that they don’t like as they go along and they learn to accept them or rationalize them or whatever it may be.
在这个国家，试图通过政府去改变，是一个“有趣”的命题，因为走进并留在政府的人群本身就具有自我筛选的特征。在某种程度上，他们一路上会做出自己并不喜欢的决定，并逐渐学会接受、或为之寻找理由，诸如此类。
But it’s still – this country’s worked out better than any country in the world. So you can’t argue it was a failure, but you can’t argue that there are certain problems that are terribly tough to figure out ways to solve. And of course, one of them gets back to the fiscal problem I mentioned before because it’s easy to spend money and it’s hard to cut people’s receipts.
但即便如此——这个国家的运转仍优于世界上任何国家。所以你不能称之为失败；但你也不能否认，有些问题极难找到解决路径。当然，其中之一又回到我之前提到的财政问题：花钱容易、削减他人收入很难。
And if you get elected, you’re going to say to yourself, well, I can do more good if I stay, and then if I really vote my conscience on this sort of thing. So, you give away a little bit here and a little bit there and a little bit there and finally you don’t recognize yourself in the mirror anymore. And that’s – I grew up in a political family, but I watched how people behaved and they behave like human beings which is what you have to expect and I behave like human beings.
而当你当选，你会告诉自己：如果我留在这里，我就能做更多好事；然后在这种事情上你若按良知投票……于是这里让一点，那里让一点，久而久之镜子里已认不出自己。我出身政治家庭，见过人们的行为模式，他们的表现与“人性”一致，这是你必须预期到的——而我也同样具有人的弱点。
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