I.H.RB.115.Cyclical Businesses
周期性的业务如果找不到实质意义的差异化，就是一轮轮的繁荣和衰退的循环。
The profit improvement, however, is likely to be of short duration. Two economic principles will see to that. First, commodity businesses achieve good levels of profitability only when prices are fixed in some manner or when capacity is short. Second, managers quickly add to capacity when prospects start to improve and capital is available.
然而，盈利改善很可能只是昙花一现。两条经济规律将确保这一结果。其一，大宗商品类业务只有在价格受到某种固定机制约束或产能紧张时，才能实现较高的盈利水平。其二，一旦前景向好且资本充裕，管理者便会迅速扩充产能。
In my 1982 report to you, I discussed the commodity nature of the insurance industry extensively. The typical policyholder does not differentiate between products but concentrates instead on price. For many decades a cartel-like procedure kept prices up, but this arrangement has disappeared for good. The insurance product now is priced as any other commodity for which a free market exists: when capacity is tight, prices will be set remuneratively; otherwise, they will not be.
在我1982年的年报中，我曾详细探讨保险行业的大宗商品属性。普通投保人并不区分产品差异，而是专注于价格比较。数十年来，一种类似卡特尔的机制维持着价格水平，但这一安排已一去不返。保险产品如今的定价方式，与任何存在自由市场的大宗商品无异：产能紧张时，价格便能维持在有利可图的水平；否则，便不然。
Capacity currently is tight in many lines of insurance—though in this industry, unlike most, capacity is an attitudinal concept, not a physical fact. Insurance managers can write whatever amount of business they feel comfortable writing, subject only to pressures applied by regulators and Best's, the industry's authoritative rating service. The comfort level of both managers and regulators is tied to capital. More capital means more comfort, which in turn means more capacity. In the typical commodity business, furthermore, such as aluminum or steel, a long gestation precedes the birth of additional capacity. In the insurance industry, capital can be secured instantly. Thus, any capacity shortage can be eliminated in short order.
目前保险业许多险种的承保能力趋于紧张——尽管在这个行业，与大多数行业不同，"产能"是一个态度层面的概念，而非物理意义上的事实。保险公司管理者可以承保任何规模的业务，只要他们觉得心里有底，唯一的约束来自监管机构和行业权威评级机构 Best's 的压力。管理者和监管机构的底气，都与资本直接挂钩。资本越充裕，底气越足，承保能力也随之扩大。此外，在铝业或钢铁业等典型大宗商品行业，新增产能的形成需要漫长的孕育周期。而在保险业，资本可以近乎即时到位。因此，任何产能短缺都可以在短期内迅速消弭。
That's exactly what's going on right now. In 1985, about 15 insurers raised well over $3 billion, piling up capital so that they can write all the business possible at the better prices now available. The capital-raising trend has accelerated dramatically so far in 1986.
这正是当下正在发生的事情。1985年，约15家保险公司合计募集资本逾30亿美元，大举囤积资本，以便在当前较为有利的定价环境下尽可能多地承揽业务。进入1986年，这一募资浪潮已急剧加速。
If capacity additions continue at this rate, it won't be long before serious price-cutting appears and next a fall in profitability. When the fall comes, it will be the fault of the capital-raisers of 1985 and 1986, not the price-cutters of 198X. (Critics should be understanding, however: as was the case in our textile example, the dynamics of capitalism cause each insurer to make decisions that for itself appear sensible, but that collectively slash profitability.)
若产能持续以此速度扩张，不出多久便会出现激烈的价格竞争，继而引发盈利能力的下滑。当下滑到来之时，罪责在于1985年和1986年的那些募资者，而非198X年的那些降价者。（批评者应当多一分理解：正如我们纺织业的例子所揭示的，资本主义的运行逻辑促使每家保险公司各自做出看似合理的决策，但这些决策汇聚在一起，却集体扼杀了整个行业的盈利能力。）
*****
As I have said, this period of tightness will pass; insurers and reinsurers will return to underpricing. But for a year or two we should do well in several segments of our insurance business. Mike Goldberg has made many important improvements in the operation (prior mismanagement by your Chairman having provided him ample opportunity to do so). He has been particularly successful recently in hiring young managers with excellent potential. They will have a chance to show their stuff in 1986.
正如我所说，这段市场紧缩期终将过去，保险公司和再保险公司最终还是会回到定价不足的老路上去。但在一两年内，我们应能在保险业务的若干板块上取得不俗表现。Mike Goldberg 对运营进行了许多重要改进（你们的董事长此前留下的种种管理失当，为他提供了充裕的改进空间）。他近来在招募极具潜力的年轻管理者方面尤为出色，他们将有机会在1986年一展身手。
商品化的业务找不到实质意义的差异化，就是一轮轮的循环。
2、《2004-05-01 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
25. Berkshire real estate business will grow
伯克希尔房地产业务将会增长
WARREN BUFFETT: Number 7? I’m sorry, number 6. I skipped 6. Number 6.
沃伦·巴菲特：第 7 个？对不起，第 6 个。我跳过了 6。第 6 个。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Good morning. My name is Andy Lewis Charles from Miami. I think I speak for everyone when I wish both of you gentleman continued health. I would wish you continued wealth, but I think you have that covered.
观众成员：早上好。我是来自迈阿密的安迪·刘易斯·查尔斯。我想我代表大家祝愿你们两位先生身体健康。我本想祝愿你们财富持续，但我想你们已经不缺这个了。
WARREN BUFFETT: We could use more. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：我们可以更多。（笑声）
Of each. 每个。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Speaking of MidAmerican Energy, a unit company underneath it, HomeServices, I see as a great opportunity. I would love to see and hear your thoughts about the future growth potential for it, especially against large consolidators like Cendant Corporation. Thank you.
观众成员：说到 MidAmerican Energy，其下属公司 HomeServices，我认为这是一个很好的机会。我很想了解您对其未来增长潜力的看法，特别是与像 Cendant Corporation 这样的大型整合商相比。谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, HomeServices will grow. HomeServices, as you know, owns a number — I can’t recall how many, but probably in the area of 15 or 16 maybe — controls a number of local real estate firms. And they retain all of their local identity.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，HomeServices 会增长。正如你所知，HomeServices 拥有一些——我记不清具体多少，但可能在 15 或 16 家左右——控制了一些本地房地产公司。而且它们保留了所有的本地身份。
In that way, it’s somewhat akin to the whole Berkshire Hathaway model, where we leave our subsidiary companies quite autonomous and they operate as if they were — the managers operate as if they own them themselves.
这样一来，这有点类似于整个伯克希尔·哈撒韦的模式，我们让子公司相当自主地运作，经理们就像他们自己拥有这些公司一样进行管理。
Well, HomeServices is somewhat along the same line in that we have no national identity, where Cendant works under a couple of big names.
好吧，HomeServices在这方面也是类似，我们没有全国性的身份，而Cendant则在几个大品牌名下运作。
We’ve acquired one company in North Carolina here in the last month or 6 weeks, Prudential of North Carolina. And we will end up — unquestionably, in my view — we’ll end up buying either a few or a whole lot of additional companies over the next 10 years.
在过去一个月或六周内，我们在北卡罗来纳州收购了一家公司，北卡罗来纳州的 Prudential 公司。毫无疑问，在我看来，在未来十年内，我们最终会收购一些或大量的其他公司。
We will — we’ve got great management. We like the business. We hear about opportunities from time to time.
我们会——我们有出色的管理。我们喜欢这个业务。我们时不时会听到一些机会。
Last year, you know, we participated in roughly $50 billion of transactions. And I think — I’m really vague on this one, but — I better not give you a percentage of the national total that is, but it’s a very small percentage. It’s a lot of transactions, a couple hundred-thousand transactions.
去年，你知道，我们参与了大约 500 亿美元的交易。我想——我对这个数字不是很确定，但——我最好不要给你一个全国总额的百分比，但这是一个非常小的百分比。这是很多交易，几十万笔交易。
We’re very big in Southern California, for example. We’re very big in Minnesota. We’re very big in Iowa. Very big right here in Omaha and in Lincoln. But there’s an awful lot of places where we aren’t at all.
我们在南加州非常受欢迎，比如说。我们在明尼苏达州非常受欢迎。我们在爱荷华州非常受欢迎。在奥马哈和林肯这里也非常受欢迎。但是，还有很多地方我们根本没有涉足。
We like to buy leading firms as we go around. And we sometimes like to buy more than one in a community.
我们喜欢在各地收购领先公司。有时我们还喜欢在一个社区中收购不止一家。
It’s a good business. It’s a very cyclical business. Right now, it’s very good. We will go through periods in the next five years. I’m sure we’ll go through a period where it’s very slow. But we’ll keep buying. We’ll buy when business is slow, we’ll buy when business is good, depending on the price of the institution and the kind of business we’re buying.
这是一个好生意。这是一个非常周期性的生意。现在，它非常好。我们将在未来五年经历一些时期。我确信我们会经历一个非常缓慢的时期。但我们会继续购买。我们会在生意缓慢时购买，也会在生意好时购买，这取决于机构的价格和我们购买的业务类型。
I don’t know how big it can become. It will become bigger than it is now. Relative to Berkshire’s total market value, it may not be that — a huge factor. But it’s conceivable as we buy more operations, we’ll find other things to do with them, too.
我不知道它能变得多大。它会比现在更大。相对于伯克希尔的总市值，它可能不是一个巨大的因素。但可以想象的是，随着我们购买更多的业务，我们也会找到其他事情来做。
I mean, the purchase of a home is a big deal to people. You know, often they’re buying furniture at the same time and maybe we can make a suggestion or two.
我的意思是，买房对人们来说是一件大事。你知道，他们通常会同时购买家具，也许我们可以提出一两个建议。
Charlie? 查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add about that business.
查理·芒格：关于这个业务，我没有什么要补充的。
1、《2011-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
But those are good businesses. And as I mentioned in the annual report, we bought the largest brick operation in Alabama. And I think Alabama uses more brick per capita than any state in the union, but that doesn’t mean much currently, because nobody is using any brick to speak of.
但这些都是不错的生意。正如我在年报中提到的，我们收购了阿拉巴马州最大的砖块生产企业。我认为阿拉巴马州的人均砖块使用量超过了美国任何一个州，但目前这并没有太大意义，因为几乎没有人在使用砖块。
But we bought it. We wrote a check for cash, and we like improving our position.
但我们买下了它。我们开了一张现金支票，我们喜欢改善我们的处境。
MiTek has bought operations. Shaw is spending a couple hundred million dollars this year, partly because of a change in the nature of the carpet business.
MiTek也在收购其他业务。Shaw今年投资了大约两亿美金，部分是因为地毯业务性质的变化。
This country, over time, will build houses at a rate, overall, in total, commensurate with household growth, and I think we’re going to see plenty of household growth in future decades, and I think that our companies are well-positioned to make significant money when we get to a normalized level of home building.
随着时间的推移，这个国家将会根据家庭增长的比例建设住房，而我认为未来几十年我们将会看到大量的家庭增长，而我们的公司在恢复正常的住房建设水平时将能赚取可观的利润。
I said in the annual report I thought it would — we would be seeing the upswing by year-end. I’ve seen nothing since I wrote the annual report that makes it look like I’m certain to be correct or anything, that there’s been no movement that I’ve seen so far in the two months since I wrote the report.
我在年度报告中说过，我认为到年底我们会看到好转。自从我写了年度报告以来，我没有看到任何让我确信我会是正确的迹象，过去两个月里我没有看到任何变化。
I would think it would start occurring by then, but if it doesn’t, you know, it may be a year later. I don’t think anybody knows the answer on that.
我认为那时可能会开始发生，但如果没有，你知道，可能会晚一年。我觉得没有人知道这个问题的答案。
If I had to bet one way or another, though, I think it will be turning up by year-end.
如果我必须下注的话，我认为到年底它会出现。
It really isn’t that important to us. When I made the decision to buy the brick company in Alabama, it was not because I thought brick was going to turn in two months or six months or a year.
这对我们来说真的不是那么重要。当我决定购买阿拉巴马州的砖块公司时，并不是因为我认为砖块在两个月、六个月或一年内会有转变。
I thought that over time, being a very important brick manufacturer and distributor in Alabama adjacent to our strong operation in Texas, it would be a good investment at the price that we paid. And I feel good about the decision, but I won’t feel good about our brick results in the next six months. I can be sure of that.
我认为，随着时间的推移，作为阿拉巴马州一个非常重要的砖块制造商和分销商，紧邻我们在德克萨斯州的强大业务，以我们支付的价格进行投资是一个不错的选择。我对这个决定感到满意，但我对我们在接下来的六个月里的砖块业绩并不乐观。我对此可以确定。
Charlie? 查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, one advantage of buying these very cyclical businesses is a lot of people don’t like them. And what difference does it make to us if the earnings average, say, 300 million a year, if it comes in in a very lumpy fashion?
查理·芒格：嗯，购买这些非常周期性的企业的一个好处是很多人不喜欢它们。如果收益平均每年大约 3 亿，而是以非常不均匀的方式出现，这对我们有什么影响呢？
In the big scheme of things, what do we care if it’s lumpy, as long as it’s a good business? And we have an advantage on that stuff. Nobody else was bidding for a brick plant in Alabama with no customers to speak of. (Laughter)
在大局中，我们在乎它是否不平整吗，只要它是一个好生意？而且我们在这方面有优势。没有其他人竞标阿拉巴马州的砖厂，根本没有客户可言。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: We’ll be there if you need brick in Alabama. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：如果你需要砖块，我们会在阿拉巴马州待命。（笑声）
You know, See’s Candy, a wonderful business, loses money roughly eight months of the year.
你知道，See’s Candy，这是一家很棒的公司，差不多每年有八个月都在亏损。
Now, it just so happens we know the seasonal pattern, so we don’t worry in July that somehow Christmas won’t come, you know. We’ve got a couple thousand years on our side. (Laughter)
现在，正好我们知道季节性模式，因此我们在七月的时候不会担心圣诞节不会到来，你知道的。我们有几千年的历史在支持我们。（笑声）
So the — but that’s — you know, that’s easy to see. If you just looked at one month of See’s earnings or looked at one quarter, you’d think, what are these guys doing in this business?
所以——但那是——你知道，这很容易看出。如果你只看一下 See's 的一个月的收益或一个季度的收益，你会想，这些家伙在这个行业里干什么？
Now, obviously, cyclical businesses, you know, are not going to behave exactly the same as seasonal businesses, but why look at it any differently?
现在，显然，周期性业务与季节性业务的表现不会完全相同，但为什么要以不同的方式看待它呢？
I mean, if you take the next 20 years, there will be, you know, three or four terrible years for residential housing, and there will be a lot of them that are pretty good, and there will be a few that are terrific.
我的意思是，如果你看接下来的 20 年，住宅市场会有三四年糟糕的年份，但也会有很多年表现不错，还有一些年份会非常好。
And I don’t know the order in which they’re going to appear, but I know if I can buy the assets cheap enough to participate in those 20 years, that we’ll do OK over that time. So that’s why we’re in the brick business.
我不知道它们将以什么顺序出现，但我知道如果我能以足够便宜的价格购买这些资产，以参与这 20 年，我们在这段时间内会做得不错。这就是我们进入砖块业务的原因。
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