I.H.113.Warren Buffett.Insurance and Gambling
互联网技术正在推动保险、预测、博彩行业朝着统一的方向变化，行业本来的界限开始变的模糊。
1、《2005-04-30 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
WARREN BUFFETT: But, of course, insurance is a way to reduce volatility, and a perfectly proper way. I mean, if you pay $1,000 a year on your auto premiums for the next 30 years, it isn’t —
沃伦·巴菲特：但是，当然，保险是一种减少波动性的方法，而且是一种完全合适的方法。我的意思是，如果你在接下来的 30 年里每年支付 1000 美元的汽车保险费，这并不是——
You are going to have a more regular income stream than if you wait and have one $25,000 accident one year and don’t pay the premiums in the other years.
如果你等待并在一年内发生一次 $25,000 的事故，而在其他年份不支付保费，那么你的收入流将比这更稳定。
So, I mean, people have bought insurance to reduce the volatility in their own personal results and their own business results. So, reducing volatility, per se, is not bad at all. It’s the reason —
所以，我的意思是，人们购买保险是为了减少个人和企业业绩的波动性。因此，减少波动性本身并没有什么不好。这就是原因——
极其愚蠢的账，是比赌场更好的生意。
CHARLIE MUNGER: No. 查理·芒格：不。
WARREN BUFFETT: — there are $400 billion worth of insurance premiums paid in this country every year. But that doesn’t — you know, you can also get into abuses of that. And that’s what they’re — the people are looking to find and see what the real situation is.
沃伦·巴菲特：——每年在这个国家支付的保险费总额为 4000 亿美元。但是，这并不意味着——你知道的，这其中也可能存在滥用的情况。这就是人们正在寻找并想要了解真实情况的原因。
2、《2006-05-06 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
53. Key distinction between insurance and gambling
保险与赌博的关键区别
WARREN BUFFETT: Number 6.
沃伦·巴菲特：第六位。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi. It’s Peter Webb here from London, UK.
观众成员：你好。我是来自英国伦敦的彼得·韦布。
Your views on gambling are well-known, and I think most people would agree that gambling is for the fiscally challenged.
你对赌博的看法是众所周知的，我认为大多数人会同意赌博是给经济状况不佳的人准备的。
But when I look at the insurance industry, what I see is an industry — I can’t even say it — I see an industry that’s based upon probabilities, and people not knowing those true probabilities, and money being made for the house in the same way as you see in a gambling market.
但当我看到保险行业时，我看到的是一个——我甚至不想说——我看到的是一个基于概率的行业，而人们并不知道那些真实的概率，并且像在赌博市场上一样，资金是为赌场所赚取的。
So the question I have for you is, how do you reconcile your views with gambling versus the insurance industry, and is the insurance industry for the fiscally challenged?
所以我想问的是，您如何调和您对赌博和保险行业的看法？保险行业是否也是针对经济状况不佳的人？
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, gambling, I think — I think the distinction that usually is made is that gambling involves creating risks that don’t need to be created.
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，赌博，我认为——我认为通常的区别在于，赌博涉及创造不必要的风险。
I mean, if the — you want to go out and gamble on where a little ball is going to fall on a wheel that’s revolving, that is not something that — that is a created risk.
我的意思是，如果你拥有一处位于沿海地区的房屋或商业地产，这个风险是客观存在的。
Whereas, if you’ve got a home or a business, you know, on a coastal area, the risk is there.
然而，如果你在沿海地区有一个家或一家公司，你知道，风险是存在的。
It wasn’t created intentionally — I mean, you say you built in that place, but — and then the question is who bears it. So there’s a transfer of — in the case of cat coverage — large existing risks as opposed to the creation of a risk that is not required.
它不是有意创造的——我的意思是，你说你在那个地方建造了，但——问题是谁承担它。因此，在灾难险的情况下，有一个大型现有风险的转移，而不是创造一个不必要的风险。
I mean, you can watch a football game without betting on it. But you can’t live in a house, you know, on a Florida coast without having a risk that your entire investment disappears.
我的意思是，你可以在不下注的情况下观看一场足球比赛。但是你不能住在佛罗里达海岸的一所房子里，而不冒着整个投资消失的风险。
So that’s the distinction, basically. I hope you’re right that the house wins in both cases. (Laughter)
所以这就是区别，基本上。我希望你是对的，无论哪种情况，赌场都能赢。（笑声）
Charlie? 查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think I can add to that either. The whole concept of house advantage is a very interesting one in modern commerce.
查理·芒格：嗯，我想我也没什么可以补充的。赌场优势的整个概念在现代商业中是一个非常有趣的课题。
A lot of the investment management operations, which were not ordinarily spoken of in the past in croupier terms — but the terms of a lot of private equity investment now —
许多投资管理操作，过去通常不会用庄家的术语来描述——但现在许多私募股权投资的术语——
I think the proprietors of the partnerships are taking a house edge that looks a lot like the rake of the croupier in Monte Carlo, except it’s bigger. (Laughter)
我认为合伙企业的所有者正在获得一种看起来很像摩纳哥赌场的“抽水”优势，只不过更大。(笑声)
本质都是赌场，保险的适用场景更加自然，也更加普遍。
WARREN BUFFETT: Is there anyone we’ve forgotten to insult? (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：我们有没有忘记侮辱谁？（笑声）
Want to make sure we don’t miss anyone here. (Laughs)
想确保我们不会漏掉任何人。（笑）
3、《2025-01-21 Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (IBKR) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript》
And finally, a special note on ForecastEx. We created this exchange which is regulated by the CFTC and allows trading on predictions that have measurable third-party verified outcomes. This is an entirely new asset class, one that provides a market driven way to quantify real-world expectations on measures like economic, political, and climate outcomes.
最后，关于ForecastEx的特别说明。我们创建了这个受CFTC监管的交易所，允许对具有可测量的第三方验证结果的预测进行交易。这是一种全新的资产类别，为经济、政治和气候等结果提供了一种由市场驱动的量化方式。
Another significant broker now offers access to our exchange. We were ready with election trading when it became permissible, we believe the greater ambition ForecastEx becoming the most accurate marketplace for predicting significant events will occur over time.
另一家重要经纪商现在也为其客户提供了访问我们的交易所的渠道。当选举交易被允许时，我们已经准备就绪。我们相信，ForecastEx成为预测重大事件的最准确市场的雄心将在未来逐步实现。
保险业务的发展方向？
Patrick Moley
So I had one on the just prediction markets and the ForecastEx platform. It seemed like the election brought a lot of people into the prediction market. So I just was hoping you could give us an update on kind of the traction that you're seeing there, your outlook for next year and whether there's any kind of milestones or things we should be looking out for on the product roadmap there?
帕特里克·莫利
我有一个关于预测市场和ForecastEx平台的问题。选举似乎吸引了很多人进入预测市场。所以我想听听您能否提供一些关于这一领域的进展更新、对明年的展望，以及产品路线图中我们应该关注的里程碑或其他重要事项？
Thomas Peterffy
Well, the prediction markets are going slowly. We are being very careful not to step on their own foot. And we believe that this is going to be a huge market, but we want to do it slowly and carefully and build out our personnel and our systems so that we can do it in a really, really big way. And that's what we are. That's what I'm devoting my time to.
托马斯·彼得菲
预测市场发展缓慢。我们非常小心，以免出现问题。我们相信这将是一个巨大的市场，但我们希望慢慢来，谨慎行事，同时扩展我们的团队和系统，以便我们能够以非常大的规模来开展工作。这正是我们正在做的事情，也是我目前投入时间的重点。
4、《2025-02-04 Robinhood Yanks Super Bowl Betting Contracts After Regulator’s Pushback》
CFTC asked the brokerage to stop offering customer access to contracts, warning they might be illegal blurring of financial markets and gamblingCFTC 要求该经纪公司停止向客户提供合约访问权限，并警告称这可能是金融市场与赌博之间的非法模糊行为。
Robinhood said Tuesday that it was withdrawing its plans to offer betting contracts on the Super Bowl, following pushback from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which raised concerns that the contracts might be illegal.
Robinhood周二表示，在商品期货交易委员会的反对下，该公司将撤回提供超级碗投注合约的计划，该委员会对这些合约的合法性表示担忧。
“We were in regular contact with the CFTC prior to launching this product, and we believe we are in full compliance with all applicable regulations,” said Robinhood General Counsel Lucas Moskowitz. Still, “we are heeding their directive to cease offering these contracts,” he added.
“在推出该产品之前，我们与 CFTC 保持定期联系，并且我们相信自己完全符合所有适用法规，”Robinhood 总法律顾问 Lucas Moskowitz 表示。不过，他补充道：“我们正在遵循他们的指示，停止提供这些合约。”
Robinhood said it had been asked by the CFTC to stop offering its customers access to the sports contracts on Monday afternoon, just hours after it unveiled its sports-betting plans, a move that blurred the lines between regulated financial markets and gambling.
Robinhood 表示，周一下午在其公布体育博彩计划仅数小时后，CFTC 要求其停止向客户提供体育合约的访问权限，此举模糊了受监管金融市场与赌博之间的界限。
Robinhood launched the contracts through a partnership with Kalshi, an online prediction market that listed a family of sports-betting contracts in January.
Robinhood 通过与 Kalshi 合作推出了这些合约，Kalshi 是一家在线预测市场，1 月份曾列出一系列体育博彩合约。
CFTC-regulated prediction markets such as Kalshi are barred under federal law from listing contracts that involve “gaming” and are against the public interest, but the definition of “gaming” isn’t spelled out in the law, which has led to disputes over what is permitted.
受 CFTC 监管的预测市场（如 Kalshi）在联邦法律下被禁止列出涉及“博彩”且违背公共利益的合约，但法律并未明确定义“博彩”，这导致了对允许内容的争议。
预测、保险、博彩的本质都是赌博，这个领域看着正在加速变化，参考：《I.H.15.Warren Buffett.Insurance and Gambling》。
Earlier Tuesday, a CFTC spokesman said the agency had “serious concerns” about brokers offering customers access to contracts that “may not be permissible under the law.” The agency “will exercise its oversight authority to the fullest extent as appropriate,” the spokesman added.
周二早些时候，CFTC 发言人表示，该机构对经纪商向客户提供“可能不符合法律规定”的合约存在“严重关切”。该发言人补充称，该机构“将酌情充分行使其监管权力”。
Robinhood has rolled out its sports bets to about 1% of customers, the company said. Those investors will have the choice between closing their positions or taking them to resolution.
Robinhood 已向约 1% 的客户推出了体育博彩，该公司表示。这些投资者可以选择平仓或持有至结算。
The Super Bowl bets were Robinhood’s second foray into the world of event contracts, a type of derivative contract that allows investors to bet on an outcome of a future event. Such events might range from elections to the weather to pop culture. Robinhood launched event contracts on the U.S. presidential election late last year that proved popular among customers.
超级碗投注是 Robinhood 第二次涉足事件合约领域，这是一种衍生合约，允许投资者对未来事件的结果进行押注。此类事件可能涵盖从选举到天气再到流行文化。Robinhood 去年年底推出了针对美国总统选举的事件合约，并在客户中颇受欢迎。
Robinhood said it was disappointed by the CFTC’s move and noted that the agency hadn’t formally deemed Kalshi’s contracts illegal. The brokerage is working with the CFTC to roll out a larger event-contracts platform later this year, Robinhood said.
Robinhood 表示对 CFTC 的举措感到失望，并指出该机构尚未正式认定 Kalshi 的合约非法。Robinhood 称，该券商正与 CFTC 合作，计划在今年晚些时候推出一个更大的事件合约平台。
Prediction markets have been testing the limits of what they are permitted to list following a court ruling last year that legalized election betting. The arrival of the Trump administration, which is expected to usher in an era of light-touch financial regulation, also emboldened the platforms to push the envelope.
预测市场一直在测试其被允许上市的边界，此前一项法院裁决在去年使选举投注合法化。特朗普政府的到来预计将带来宽松的金融监管，这也鼓励了这些平台不断突破界限。
In December, Crypto.com listed a Super Bowl contract on a prediction-market platform it owns, despite years of longstanding CFTC resistance to such contracts. During the last days of the Biden administration, the CFTC asked the digital-currency exchange to suspend trading of the contracts, but Crypto.com refused.
去年 12 月，Crypto.com 在其拥有的预测市场平台上列出了一份超级碗合约，尽管 CFTC 多年来一直反对此类合约。在拜登政府的最后几天，CFTC 要求这家数字货币交易所暂停合约交易，但 Crypto.com 拒绝了。
Kalshi followed suit with its own Super Bowl contracts shortly after Inauguration Day. The CFTC is currently reviewing Crypto.com’s contracts, and on Friday it sent letters to Crypto.com and Kalshi seeking information on why they consider their sports contracts legal.
在总统就职日后不久，Kalshi 也推出了自己的超级碗合约。CFTC 目前正在审查 Crypto.com 的合约，并于周五向 Crypto.com 和 Kalshi 发送了信函，要求提供其认为体育合约合法的理由。
“The CFTC made the right call in requesting Robinhood not to permit its customers to access sports-event contracts,” said Cantrell Dumas, director of derivatives policy at Better Markets, a nonprofit that advocates for tougher financial regulation. “These event contracts are wagers, not legitimate financial instruments.”
“CFTC 要求 Robinhood 不要允许其客户访问体育赛事合约的决定是正确的，”非营利组织 Better Markets（倡导更严格金融监管）的衍生品政策主管 Cantrell Dumas 表示。“这些赛事合约是赌注，而不是真正的金融工具。”
Betting contracts on the Super Bowl and coming basketball and hockey championships were still available for trading through Kalshi’s website on Tuesday afternoon, despite Robinhood’s decision to disable access to them on its own app.
尽管 Robinhood 决定在其应用程序上禁用这些合约，周二下午，Super Bowl 以及即将到来的篮球和冰球锦标赛的投注合约仍可通过 Kalshi 的网站进行交易。
With its abortive foray into Super Bowl contracts, Robinhood had sought to cash in on the growing bonanza of sports betting, just days before the most-watched championship in U.S. professional sports.
通过其对超级碗合约的尝试未果，Robinhood 试图在美国职业体育最受关注的冠军赛前几天，借助日益增长的体育博彩热潮获利。
Sports betting has exploded across the U.S. in recent years, driven by gambling companies such as DraftKings and FanDuel. Thirty-nine states and the District of Columbia have legalized sports wagering. The American Gaming Association, the gambling industry trade group, said Tuesday that it expects Americans to legally wager $1.39 billion on this weekend’s Super Bowl alone.
近年来，体育博彩在美国迅速增长，由 DraftKings 和 FanDuel 等博彩公司推动。三十九个州和哥伦比亚特区已将体育博彩合法化。美国博彩协会，这一博彩行业贸易组织，周二表示，仅本周末的超级碗，美国人预计将合法投注 13.9 亿美元。
The trade group said Tuesday that it is “concerned with current efforts by certain trading platforms and digital exchanges to launch national sports-event contracts that appear to circumvent state regulatory frameworks” and called on the companies to stop offering sports-event contracts during the CFTC’s review period.
该贸易组织周二表示，“对某些交易平台和数字交易所当前推动推出全国性体育赛事合约的努力感到担忧，这些合约似乎规避了州监管框架”，并呼吁相关公司在 CFTC 审查期间停止提供体育赛事合约。
Gambling companies have been watching the rise of prediction-market offerings, weighing whether it represents a competitive threat or possibly opening the way to a new line of business. Kalshi has marketed its product in gambling terminology: “Bet on everything.”
博彩公司一直在关注预测市场产品的兴起，权衡其是否构成竞争威胁，或可能为新业务开辟道路。Kalshi 以博彩术语推广其产品：“押注一切。”
Some Robinhood users were thrilled to see the brokerage wade into the sports-betting world. Alexander Bittan, a 31-year-old investor based in New Jersey, asked Robinhood Chief Executive Vlad Tenev about making such a move during the company’s investor day in December.
一些 Robinhood 用户对这家经纪公司涉足体育博彩领域感到兴奋。居住在新泽西州的 31 岁投资者 Alexander Bittan 在公司 12 月的投资者日上询问 Robinhood 首席执行官 Vlad Tenev 是否会采取这样的举措。
“A lot of our customers…are interested in sports in general, so we’re keenly looking into that space,” Tenev responded.
“我们的许多客户……总体上对体育感兴趣，所以我们正在密切关注这一领域，”Tenev 回应道。
Bittan updated his app after the announcement this week to get access to the contracts as soon as they rolled out. He planned to put down about $5,000 on a Kansas City victory.
Bittan 在本周公告发布后更新了他的应用，以便在合约推出后尽快获取访问权限。他计划押注约 5,000 美元支持堪萨斯城获胜。
He was still waiting on access when the brokerage suspended trading of the contracts on Tuesday.
他仍在等待访问权限时，券商于周二暂停了这些合约的交易。
“It’s disappointing,” he said. “When you innovate fast, not everything is going to be allowed to be done and not everything will work.”
“这令人失望，”他说。“当你快速创新时，并非所有事情都被允许去做，也并非所有事情都会成功。”
Reading recommendations to better understand the insurance industry
更好理解保险业的阅读推荐
\[00:23:29] Mark Hughes: Good morning, Tom. Thank you for putting this on. Thank you to all the Markel associates here. Thank you, Susan Gayner, for being Tom’s margin of safety. So that doesn’t go off the rails. My question is, you know, I’ve been a shareholder for 29 years. I’ve been reading Markel’s financials for 30 years, your competitors, et cetera. Still, I find myself with gaps in my knowledge of the insurance industry. Like a lot of people here, I’m a generalist, not an insurance industry specialist. Are there things that you could recommend reading? Is there an intelligent investor in the insurance industry? A podcast? YouTube video? Something that might let us generalist, you know, enhance our knowledge of the broader insurance industry. Anything you could mention to us. Is there anybody we should follow would be appreciated. Thank you.
\[00:23:29] Mark Hughes：早上好，Tom。感谢你举办活动，也感谢所有马可尔同事。还要感谢 Susan Gayner，成为 Tom 的安全边际，让一切有序进行。我做股东 29 年，阅读马可尔财报 30 年，也看竞争对手的资料，但仍觉得对保险业了解不足。我是通才而非保险专家。你能推荐哪些读物吗？保险领域有没有类似《聪明的投资者》的书？或者播客、YouTube 视频，能让我们这些通才加深对保险业的理解？任何建议、值得关注的人或资源，都将感激不尽。谢谢。
\[00:24:22] Tom Gayner: Well, great. Thank you. The challenge in answering that question is that you presume that we know. And there is an irreducible amount of black box and uncertainty and not knowing that you’re just never going to get beyond. And I don’t mean to single you out for that, I can promise you that is the case for us too. So when somebody says, you know, their combined ratio was 94.3 or 97.2. or 91.1. I said that those are not combined ratios. Those are FM radio stations and their estimates. So I think at a very fundamental level, one of the things to try to just conceptualise the mechanism of insurance is that I call insurance a bucket of money. It’s a bucket of money. And when you make a premium payment as somebody buying an insurance policy. You throw money into the bucket and that bucket accumulates money in it. And then if something untoward happens or something that causes a claim, you put your fist back in that bucket of money and you pull out the money that has been pulled from all the others doing so.
\[00:24:22] Tom Gayner：好的，谢谢。回答这个问题难在你假设我们知道答案，但其中有无法消除的“黑盒”和不确定性——我们也同样面对。有人说他们的综合赔付率是 94.3、97.2 或 91.1，我就说，那听起来像 FM 电台频率，只是估算值。从根本上讲，理解保险机制的方式之一是把保险视为“一桶钱”。投保人支付保费时，把钱丢进这桶里，桶里资金累积；当发生索赔事件时，你把手伸进桶里，从大家投进去的共有资金中取钱。
Now here’s my segue in turn from first to second base. I’m talking about the insurance cycle and pricing. When that bucket of money that represents the insurance industry writ large starts overflowing with money and it just starts spilling over the edges, tends to be that insurance prices and rates go down because there’s enough money in the bucket. And when that bucket is getting a little bit thin and we’re scraping the bottle of the barrel and wondering where the money is, that’s when insurance rates are going up. And that has been the case in the last two or three years. We’ve heard about the wildfires in California, the Hurricanes in Florida, Hawaii, places like that, climate change, inflation and all those kinds of things that have been taking money out of the bucket and that’s why, you know, insurance rates writ large are going up rather than and down and has been the case for a while. Point number one.
接下来从一垒跑向二垒，谈谈保险周期与定价。当代表整个保险业的那桶钱装得满满当当、甚至溢出来时，保险价格通常会下跌，因为桶里钱够多；而当桶里快见底、大家刮着桶底找钱时，保险费率就会上涨。过去两三年情况正是如此。加州山火、佛罗里达和夏威夷的飓风、气候变化、通胀等因素不断从这桶钱里掏走资金，因此整体保险费率持续上升而非下降，并已延续一段时间。这是第一点。
Point number two. You and I share the fact that we are both ex-accountants, CPAs by training, but both of us got out. When somebody was trying and this is before the days of Markel Ventures, which does indeed create a different set of dynamics within our financial statements and somebody was asking me the kind of question you’re asking whether just trying to understand the insurance business, I would invite them to open the balance sheet. The fact the number one and most important financial statement of any kind of financial company, banker and church, is the balance sheet. And I would say here’s a test, point just with your figure point, you need to do no math at all other than the ability to count. Point to me where the biggest number on the balance sheet is. And if you look at the balance sheet, you’ll see that the biggest number typically is the loss reserves number. That is the number we expect to pay out in claims in the future. That’s the biggest number.
第二点。你我都有注册会计师背景，但后来都离开了会计岗位。在 Markel Ventures 之前，有人问我与你类似的问题：如何理解保险业？我会建议他们打开资产负债表。对任何金融机构——银行也好、保险公司也好——最重要的财务报表是资产负债表。我会给他们做个小测试：用手指点出表中最大的数字，不需要做任何运算，只要会数数就行。通常最大的数字是损失准备金，也就是我们预计未来要支付的理赔金额。
And then I would say I promise you one thing is the CPA, and by the way, the CPA society would find me if I just said that without the asterisk, I am a non-practising CPA. I’m not taking the CPA CPE courses and stuff. And you know when Jeremy was doing accounting and was the Chief Financial Officer, you know, we used to talk about accounting with certainly different points of view sometimes at about 30 seconds after he got his new job and left. I heard him start to say, you know, I used to be an accountant, which is what I say. But someone who used to be an accountant, I will tell you that number, that loss reserve number is wrong. It’s wrong. Now the interesting question is it wrong the right way or wrong the wrong way? And wrong the right way means that it’s more than what the claims will end up being. Wrong in the wrong way is that it’s not enough. We have explicitly committed to a standard that we hold ourselves to where we want that number to be more likely to be redundant than deficient.
接着我会说，作为曾经的注册会计师（顺便说明一下，我现在是不执业 CPA，没有继续教育学分），我敢保证那个损失准备金数字一定是错的。问题在于，是“向好”的错，还是“向坏”的错？“向好”的错意味着准备金多于最终理赔；“向坏”的错则是准备金不足。我们明确承诺并长期坚持一个标准：宁可多提也不能少提。
You can look at 36 or 37 years of our reporting financial results as a public company and I know some quarters we might have missed it, but have we ever missed it on an annual basis? 2004 which I can’t remember what the circumstances were that caused that to be the case. Oh, asbestos. Yeah. Recognising the big asbestos loss. But let’s say for the vast majority of the time we’ve actually met that standard. And I think what that shows and really that is the test of both sorts of actuarial and financial technical competence that we sort of know enough of what the number is and add a margin of safety and get there and more importantly than that it is a measure of integrity where we are operating in such a way that we are not going to try to deceive you about what our ultimate loss causes and more importantly, we’re not going to try to deceive ourselves.
回顾我们上市 36、37 年的财报，也许有些季度差强人意，但全年层面有没有失手？2004 年例外——那年我们确认了大额石棉损失。但绝大多数时间我们符合“多提”标准。这既是对精算和财务技术能力的考验：我们大致知道数字，应加安全边际并做到位；更是诚信的体现——既不欺骗投资者，也不自欺。
So we hold ourselves to a pretty tough standard and we’ve got decades of actually meeting or exceeding that standard. So I understand the complexity and the ambiguity of trying to understand insurance but I would encourage you to back out the lens a little bit and do wide open and just look at that kind of sensation of is the number of the combined ratio of less than 100 which means that it’s profitable and in year after year after year after year that number subsequently proved to be enough or not enough. Thanks for the question. Zone two.
因此，我们自设了颇为严苛的标准，并几十年如一日地满足或超越它。我理解学习保险业的复杂与模糊，但建议你把镜头拉远些：先看综合赔付率是否长期低于 100、是否持续盈利，再看多年之后准备金是否充足。谢谢你的提问。下一位。
Inflation and new technology
\[00:41:03] Mariya Messerli: Good morning. I’m Mariya Messerli. I’m a private investor coming from Switzerland. Special thanks for putting my picture on the website of this registration of the brunch. I got slightly more famous among my fellow value investors, so I guess it’s win-win lived life. So today I have a question for you and here it is. Yesterday, we heard Ajit Jain saying, “Climate change is much like inflation. If done right, it can be a friend of a risk bearer.” My question is, if and when will social inflation and economic inflation turn to be Markel’s friends, what is the role of new technology to get there? Any example of application cases would be highly appreciated. Thank you.
\[00:41:03] Mariya Messerli：早上好！我是 Mariya Messerli，一名来自瑞士的私人投资者。非常感谢你们把我的照片放在早午餐报名网页上，在价值投资圈里我因此小小出名了一把，可谓双赢人生。今天我有个问题想请教。昨天我们听到 Ajit Jain 说：“气候变化有点像通胀，如果处理得当，它可以成为风险承担者的朋友。”我的问题是：什么时候、以及在什么条件下，社会通胀和经济通胀会成为 Markel 的朋友？要做到这点，新技术将扮演怎样的角色？如果能举一些应用案例，将不胜感激。谢谢！
\[00:41:54] Tom Gayner: Sure. I’ll take the first stab at this and then ask Jeremy to speak to it as well. So what Ajit was speaking of in particular, I think were the mechanics of how insurance policies work. So every single day that goes by, roughly speaking 1/365th of all the risks we have get repriced because insurance policies are sold largely one year at a time. So you take on a certain amount of risk to the policy limit you’re exposed to that risk for a year and the effects of climate change that have happened so far have happened day by day, by day, by day, by day, such that day by day, by day, by day we also respond in tandem with the repricing of that risk. And then in the marketplace, people see the renewal prices for their insurance quotes that factor into their decision as do we still want to live here or not? Should I go somewhere else? Do I need to improve the fire safety within my structure compared to what it is right now?
\[00:41:54] Tom Gayner：好的，我先回答，然后请 Jeremy 补充。我认为 Ajit 谈的是保险保单的运作机制。每天都会有大约 1/365 的在保风险被重新定价，因为保险多数是一年期的：你承担某个保额范围内的一年风险。气候变化带来的影响也是日复一日累积的，同样我们也会同步、日复一日地重新定价这些风险。市场上，人们看到续保报价后，会思考诸如“我们还要住在这里吗？要搬去别处吗？是否该提升建筑的防火安全？”之类的问题。
There are measures and countermeasures that exist all the time and the insurance mechanism sends a signal to the marketplace that, hey, more bad things can happen than used to. And if that’s true, we need to charge more for it and we need to maintain profitability for the insurance company. So that if you have a claim, we are financially solvent to pay that claim and it helps inform your decisions of how much you can start to do things that would improve climate outcomes. So he was speaking to the technical matters and that would apply to inflation and social inflexion. Every single thing that goes into making up loss, we try to stay as quick on understanding that and use that as a feedback loop to change and alter our pricing day by day, by day, by day. And if we get it wrong, typically within the context of a year, our bell gets rung and we know that we got it wrong, such that when we reprice that policy next year, we have the opportunity to charge a different price for it. Jeremy, do you have anything to add?
风险与对策始终并存，保险机制会向市场发出信号：现在坏事发生的概率比过去高。如果真如此，我们就必须提高费率，并保持保险公司的盈利能力，这样当你出险时我们才能有充足资金赔付；同时也帮助你决定该采取多少措施来改善气候结果。他谈的是技术层面，这同样适用于经济和社会通胀。所有造成损失的因素，我们都尽可能快速理解，并把它当作反馈循环，天天调整定价。如果判断失误，通常一年内就会被“敲钟”提醒，到了下一次续保便有机会重新定价。Jeremy，你有什么补充吗？
非常好的理解保险的方式。
\[00:44:05] Jeremy Noble: Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Maybe a few things. So building off what Tom just said. So at the end of the day from a speciality insurance standpoint, you know our job is to absorb other’s volatility and uncertainty. So to a certain degree, I think that might have been what Ajit was commenting on as well. If there wasn’t a volatility, there was no uncertainty. You start to minimalize the value proposition. I think of insurance. So we have to do that thoughtfully and efficiently and well. And if we can do that and when we do that well, we earn appropriate returns on capital and that’s the name of the game. And that builds off some of what Tom was sharing, how do you go about managing that effectively? If we think about taking, for example, you know climate change as an aspect and when we think about a business that we would have within our insurance engine with Nephila, their value proposition longer term is the fact that they sit, I think, at the intersection of we’re in a world with elevating level of volatility and risk and uncertainty. There’s a value to associate with that risk, and there is an uncorrelated aspect of natural catastrophe risk relative to a lot of other things that move markets.
\[00:44:05] Jeremy Noble：大家早上好。我补充几点。首先，正如 Tom 所说，从专业保险角度看，我们的职责是吸收他人的波动和不确定性。某种程度上，我认为这也是 Ajit 的意思。如果没有波动，就没有不确定性，保险的价值主张也会被削弱。所以我们必须审慎、高效地做好这件事；做得好，资本回报就合适，这就是游戏规则。这与 Tom 分享的管理方法一脉相承。以气候变化为例，我们保险引擎中的 Nephila 业务长期价值在于：当世界波动、风险和不确定性上升时，他们处于“交汇点”，能够为这种风险定价；而自然灾害风险与许多驱动市场的其他因素不相关，这是宝贵的。
So if you think there is that uncorrelated aspect and you believe that the world is a bit sort of more risky and you are concerned about sort of, let’s say, climate risk, well then investing in an uncorrelated way at that intersection with somebody that’s driving our thought leadership around the science of risk. So back to the tools, technology, data insights that’s I think, an example of that. The same would be true for wider economic inflation or social inflation in those products. So Tom’s point. We can reprice the product each year, but it’s also our job to manage that thoughtfully over the long term and be leaders. So complement that with data insights and that’s certainly what we’re investing in with the insurance platform as well. Thank you.
因此，如果你看重这种非相关性，并认为全球风险上升、尤其关注气候风险，那么在这一交汇点进行非相关投资、与推动我们风险科学理念的团队合作就很有意义。回到工具、技术和数据洞察，这正是案例。同理，面对更广泛的经济或社会通胀，这些产品也是如此。正如 Tom 所言，我们可以每年重新定价产品，但同时也要在长期内审慎管理并发挥引领作用，再辅以数据洞察——这正是我们在保险平台持续投资的方向。谢谢。
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