I.H.119.Peter Thiel.Advertising
电视和广告是一个紧密联系的组合，Tiktok和广告也一样，广告在大脑关闭的状态下取得最好的效果。
1、《1995-04-20 Steve Jobs.Interview with Daniel Morrow》
Steve Jobs: The market competition model seems to indicate that where there is a need there is a lot of providers willing to tailor their products to fit that need and a lot of competition which forces them to get better and better. I used to think when I was in my twenties that technology was the solution to most of the world's problems, but unfortunately it just ain't so. I'll give you an analogy. Alot of times we think "Why is the television programming so bad? Why are television shows so demeaning, so poor?" The first thought that occurs to you is "Well, there is a conspiracy: the networks are feeding us this slop because its cheap to produce. It's the networks that are controlling this and they are feeding us this stuff but the truth of the matter, if you study it in any depth, is that networks absolutely want to give people what they want so that will watch the shows. If people wanted something different, they would get it. And the truth of the matter is that the shows that are on television, are on television because that's what people want. The majority of people in this country want to turn on a television and turn off their brain and that's what they get. And that's far more depressing than a conspiracy. Conspiracies are much more fun than the truth of the matter, which is that the vast majority of the public are pretty mindless most of the time. I think the school situation has a parallel here when it comes to technology. It is so much more hopeful to think that technology can solve the problems that are more human and more organizational and more political in nature, and it ain't so. We need to attack these things at the root, which is people and how much freedom we give people, the competition that will attract the best people. Unfortunately, there are side effects, like pushing out a lot of 46 year old teachers who lost their spirit fifteen years ago and shouldn't be teaching anymore. I feel very strongly about this. I wish it was as simple as giving it over to the computer.
史蒂夫·乔布斯：市场竞争模式似乎表明，只要有需求，就会有很多供应商愿意根据需求定制产品，而激烈的竞争也会迫使他们变得越来越好。在我二十多岁的时候，我曾经认为技术可以解决世界上的大多数问题，但不幸的是，事实并非如此。我给你打个比方。很多时候我们会想："为什么电视节目这么糟糕？为什么电视节目如此贬低人，如此差劲？"你首先想到的是："嗯，这是一个阴谋：电视网给我们提供这些泔水，因为制作成本低。是电视网在控制这一切，他们在给我们提供这些东西，但如果你深入研究一下，事情的真相是，电视网绝对是想给人们他们想要的东西，这样人们才会看这些节目。如果人们想要不同的东西，他们就会得到。而事实的真相是，电视节目之所以能在电视上播出，是因为这正是人们想要的。这个国家的大多数人都想打开电视，关掉大脑，这就是他们所得到的。这比阴谋论更让人沮丧。阴谋论比事实真相有趣得多，事实真相是绝大多数公众在大多数时候都很无脑。我认为，在技术方面，学校的情况与此类似。认为技术可以解决更人性、更组织化、更政治化的问题，这种想法更有希望，但事实并非如此。我们需要从根本上解决这些问题，也就是人的问题，以及我们给予人们多少自由的问题，还有吸引最优秀人才的竞争问题。 不幸的是，这样做也有副作用，比如把很多 46 岁的教师挤走了，他们在 15 年前就失去了斗志，不应该再教书了。我对此深有感触，我希望这能像交给计算机那么简单。
想通过短视频提供高质量的内容几乎不可能，这时候大脑的慢系统是关闭的，最多暂时添加收藏，等到以后再仔细研究。
3、《2013-03-01 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》
We Buy Some Newspapers . . . Newspapers?
我们买了些报纸……报纸？
During the past fifteen months, we acquired 28 daily newspapers at a cost of $344 million. This may puzzle you for two reasons. First, I have long told you in these letters and at our annual meetings that the circulation, advertising and profits of the newspaper industry overall are certain to decline. That prediction still holds. Second, the properties we purchased fell far short of meeting our oft-stated size requirements for acquisitions.
在过去十五个月里，我们以3.44亿美元的成本收购了28家日报。这可能有两个方面让你困惑。第一，我长期在这些信件和我们的年度会议上告诉你，整个报业的发行量、广告和利润肯定会下降。这个判断依然有效。第二，我们购买的标的远远达不到我们常常强调的并购规模要求。
We can address the second point easily. Charlie and I love newspapers and, if their economics make sense, will buy them even when they fall far short of the size threshold we would require for the purchase of, say, a widget company. Addressing the first point requires me to provide a more elaborate explanation, including some history.
第二点很好解释。Charlie 和我热爱报纸，只要其经济性说得通，即使它们远远达不到我们收购（比如某个零部件公司）时会要求的规模门槛，我们也会买。至于第一点，则需要我做更详细的说明，包括一点历史。
News, to put it simply, is what people don’t know that they want to know. And people will seek their news – what’s important to them – from whatever sources provide the best combination of immediacy, ease of access, reliability, comprehensiveness and low cost. The relative importance of these factors varies with the nature of the news and the person wanting it.
简单说，新闻就是人们还不知道、但想要知道的东西。人们会从能在“及时性、可获得性、可靠性、全面性和低成本”上提供最佳组合的任何来源去获取与自己相关的重要信息。这些因素的相对重要性，会因新闻的性质和读者的不同而变化。
Before television and the Internet, newspapers were the primary source for an incredible variety of news, a fact that made them indispensable to a very high percentage of the population. Whether your interests were international, national, local, sports or financial quotations, your newspaper usually was first to tell you the latest information. Indeed, your paper contained so much you wanted to learn that you received your money’s worth, even if only a small number of its pages spoke to your specific interests. Better yet, advertisers typically paid almost all of the product’s cost, and readers rode their coattails.
在电视和互联网出现之前，报纸是各种各样新闻的首要来源，这使其对相当大比例的人群不可或缺。无论你关注国际、国内、地方、体育还是金融行情，你的报纸通常都是最先告诉你最新信息的。事实上，报纸包含了太多你想了解的内容，即便只有少数版面契合你的特定兴趣，你也物有所值。更妙的是，广告商通常承担了几乎全部的产品成本，读者则“搭了便车”。
Additionally, the ads themselves delivered information of vital interest to hordes of readers, in effect providing even more “news.” Editors would cringe at the thought, but for many readers learning what jobs or apartments were available, what supermarkets were carrying which weekend specials, or what movies were showing where and when was far more important than the views expressed on the editorial page.
此外，广告本身也向大量读者传递了至关重要的信息，实际上提供了更多“新闻”。编辑可能会对此皱眉，但对许多读者而言，了解有哪些工作或公寓可选、哪些超市有周末特价、哪些电影何时何地上映，比社论版表达的观点重要得多。
In turn, the local paper was indispensable to advertisers. If Sears or Safeway built stores in Omaha, they required a “megaphone” to tell the city’s residents why their stores should be visited today. Indeed, big department stores and grocers vied to outshout their competition with multi-page spreads, knowing that the goods they advertised would fly off the shelves. With no other megaphone remotely comparable to that of the newspaper, ads sold themselves.
反过来，本地报纸对广告主也不可或缺。若 Sears 或 Safeway 在 Omaha 开店，他们需要一个“扩音器”告诉市民为什么今天就该去逛店。事实上，大百货商店和杂货商用多版面广告争相盖过竞争对手的声量，因为他们知道，被宣传的商品会迅速脱销。在没有任何其他可与报纸相提并论的“扩音器”的情况下，广告几乎是“自带销量”的。
As long as a newspaper was the only one in its community, its profits were certain to be extraordinary; whether it was managed well or poorly made little difference. (As one Southern publisher famously confessed, “I owe my exalted position in life to two great American institutions – nepotism and monopoly.”)
只要一座城市里只有一家报纸，它的利润就几乎必然非同寻常；管理得好或差，影响都不大。（正如一位南方出版人著名的自白：“我之所以位高权重，归功于两大美国制度——裙带关系与垄断。”）
Over the years, almost all cities became one-newspaper towns (or harbored two competing papers that joined forces to operate as a single economic unit). This contraction was inevitable because most people wished to read and pay for only one paper. When competition existed, the paper that gained a significant lead in circulation almost automatically received the most ads. That left ads drawing readers and readers drawing ads. This symbiotic process spelled doom for the weaker paper and became known as “survival of the fattest.”
多年来，几乎所有城市都变成“一报城市”（或者拥有两家竞争报纸，但合并为一个经济实体运营）。这种收缩不可避免，因为大多数人只愿意阅读并为一份报纸付费。一旦存在竞争，在发行量上取得显著领先的那份报纸几乎自然而然地获得最多广告。于是广告吸引读者、读者又吸引广告。这种共生过程注定了弱者的结局，被称作“最胖者生存”。
Now the world has changed. Stock market quotes and the details of national sports events are old news long before the presses begin to roll. The Internet offers extensive information about both available jobs and homes. Television bombards viewers with political, national and international news. In one area of interest after another, newspapers have therefore lost their “primacy.” And, as their audiences have fallen, so has advertising. (Revenues from “help wanted” classified ads – long a huge source of income for newspapers – have plunged more than 90% in the past 12 years.)
如今世界已经改变。股市行情和全国性体育赛事的细节，在印刷机开动前就已成“旧闻”。互联网提供了关于职位与住房的大量信息。电视向观众密集投送政治、国内与国际新闻。于是，一块又一块的兴趣领域里，报纸丧失了“首要地位”。随着受众下滑，广告也随之下降。（“help wanted” 分类广告——报业长期的重要收入来源——在过去12年里收入下降逾90%。）
Newspapers continue to reign supreme, however, in the delivery of local news. If you want to know what’s going on in your town – whether the news is about the mayor or taxes or high school football – there is no substitute for a local newspaper that is doing its job. A reader’s eyes may glaze over after they take in a couple of paragraphs about Canadian tariffs or political developments in Pakistan; a story about the reader himself or his neighbors will be read to the end. Wherever there is a pervasive sense of community, a paper that serves the special informational needs of that community will remain indispensable to a significant portion of its residents.
不过，在提供本地新闻方面，报纸仍然无可匹敌。如果你想了解自己城市正在发生什么——无论是市长、税收还是高中橄榄球——一份尽职尽责的本地报纸是不可替代的。读者读到关于加拿大关税或巴基斯坦政治进展的两三段，眼神可能就开始涣散；但涉及他本人或邻居的报道会从头读到尾。只要社区归属感普遍存在，满足该社区特殊信息需求的报纸就会对相当一部分居民不可或缺。
Even a valuable product, however, can self-destruct from a faulty business strategy. And that process has been underway during the past decade at almost all papers of size. Publishers – including Berkshire in Buffalo – have offered their paper free on the Internet while charging meaningful sums for the physical specimen. How could this lead to anything other than a sharp and steady drop in sales of the printed product? Falling circulation, moreover, makes a paper less essential to advertisers. Under these conditions, the “virtuous circle” of the past reverses.
不过，即使是有价值的产品，也可能因为错误的商业战略而自我毁灭。而在过去十年里，几乎所有大型报纸都在上演这一幕。出版商——包括 Berkshire 在 Buffalo 的报纸——在互联网上免费提供内容，同时对纸质版收取相当的费用。除了导致纸质产品销量又快又稳地下滑，这还能有什么结果？发行量下降还会使报纸对广告主的重要性降低。在这种条件下，过去的“良性循环”开始反转。
The Wall Street Journal went to a pay model early. But the main exemplar for local newspapers is the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, published by Walter Hussman, Jr. Walter also adopted a pay format early, and over the past decade his paper has retained its circulation far better than any other large paper in the country. Despite Walter’s powerful example, it’s only been in the last year or so that other papers, including Berkshire’s, have explored pay arrangements. Whatever works best – and the answer is not yet clear – will be copied widely.
The Wall Street Journal 很早就采用了付费模式。但本地报纸的主要示范是 Arkansas Democrat-Gazette，由 Walter Hussman, Jr. 出版。Walter 同样较早采用付费形式，在过去十年里，他的报纸在保持发行量方面的表现远胜全国其他大型报纸。尽管 Walter 的示范效应强大，直到最近一年左右，其他报纸（包括 Berkshire 的）才开始探索付费安排。无论哪种方式效果最佳——答案尚不明确——都会被广泛复制。
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Charlie and I believe that papers delivering comprehensive and reliable information to tightly-bound communities and having a sensible Internet strategy will remain viable for a long time. We do not believe that success will come from cutting either the news content or frequency of publication. Indeed, skimpy news coverage will almost certainly lead to skimpy readership. And the less-than-daily publication that is now being tried in some large towns or cities – while it may improve profits in the short term – seems certain to diminish the papers’ relevance over time. Our goal is to keep our papers loaded with content of interest to our readers and to be paid appropriately by those who find us useful, whether the product they view is in their hands or on the Internet.
Charlie 和我相信，只要报纸能向紧密联系的社区提供全面而可靠的信息，并配合合理的互联网策略，它们就能在很长时间里保持生命力。我们不认为削减新闻内容或出版频率会带来成功。事实上，内容稀薄几乎必然导致读者稀薄。而一些大城镇或城市正在尝试的“非每日出版”——尽管短期可能改善利润——从长期看几乎注定会削弱报纸的相关性。我们的目标是，让报纸持续装载读者感兴趣的内容，并让认为我们有用的人给予恰当的付费，无论他们阅读的是纸质版还是网络版。
Our confidence is buttressed by the availability of Terry Kroeger’s outstanding management group at the Omaha World-Herald, a team that has the ability to oversee a large group of papers. The individual papers, however, will be independent in their news coverage and editorial opinions. (I voted for Obama; of our 12 dailies that endorsed a presidential candidate, 10 opted for Romney.)
我们的信心，还来自 Omaha World-Herald 的 Terry Kroeger 所领导的杰出管理团队的支持——这支团队有能力统筹管理大量报纸。不过，各份报纸在新闻报道与社论观点上将保持独立。（我把票投给了 Obama；在我们 12 家公开支持总统候选人的日报中，有 10 家选择了 Romney。）
Our newspapers are certainly not insulated from the forces that have been driving revenues downward. Still, the six small dailies we owned throughout 2012 had unchanged revenues for the year, a result far superior to that experienced by big-city dailies. Moreover, the two large papers we operated throughout the year – The Buffalo News and the Omaha World-Herald – held their revenue loss to 3%, which was also an above-average outcome. Among newspapers in America’s 50 largest metropolitan areas, our Buffalo and Omaha papers rank near the top in circulation penetration of their home territories.
我们的报纸当然无法置身于压低收入的各种力量之外。尽管如此，我们在 2012 年整年持有的六家小型日报全年收入保持不变，这一结果远胜大城市日报。此外，我们全年经营的两家大型报纸——The Buffalo News 与 Omaha World-Herald——把收入降幅控制在 3%，这同样优于行业平均。在全美 50 个最大都会区的报纸中，我们的 Buffalo 与 Omaha 报纸在本土市场的发行渗透率名列前茅。
This popularity is no accident: Credit the editors of those papers – Margaret Sullivan at the News and Mike Reilly at the World-Herald — for delivering information that has made their publications indispensable to community-interested readers. (Margaret, I regret to say, recently left us to join The New York Times, whose job offers are tough to turn down. That paper made a great hire, and we wish her the best.)
这种受欢迎绝非偶然：要感谢这些报纸的编辑——The News 的 Margaret Sullivan 与 The World-Herald 的 Mike Reilly——他们提供的信息使出版物对关注社区的读者不可或缺。（遗憾的是，Margaret 近期离开我们加入 The New York Times——那里的邀约确实难以拒绝。那份报纸做出了一次很棒的聘任，我们祝她一切顺利。）
Berkshire’s cash earnings from its papers will almost certainly trend downward over time. Even a sensible Internet strategy will not be able to prevent modest erosion. At our cost, however, I believe these papers will meet or exceed our economic test for acquisitions. Results to date support that belief.
Berkshire 从报纸业务获得的现金收益几乎可以肯定会随时间下行。即使是合理的互联网策略，也难以完全避免温和的流失。不过，以我们的成本来看，我相信这些报纸将达到或超过我们对并购的经济性检验。截至目前的结果支持这一判断。
Charlie and I, however, still operate under economic principle 11 (detailed on page 99) and will not continue the operation of any business doomed to unending losses. One daily paper that we acquired in a bulk purchase from Media General was significantly unprofitable under that company’s ownership. After analyzing the paper’s results, we saw no remedy for the losses and reluctantly shut it down. All of our remaining dailies, however, should be profitable for a long time to come. (They are listed on page 108.) At appropriate prices – and that means at a very low multiple of current earnings – we will purchase more papers of the type we like.
不过，Charlie 和我仍遵循经济原则第 11 条（详见第 99 页），不会继续经营任何注定长期亏损的业务。我们从 Media General 成批收购的一份日报，在其原东家手中长期大幅亏损。分析其经营结果后，我们认为无解，只得忍痛关停。至于其余的日报，我们预计未来很长时期都将盈利。（名单见第 108 页。）在合适的价格——也就是当前收益的一个很低倍数——我们还会继续收购我们喜欢的那类报纸。
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A milestone in Berkshire’s newspaper operations occurred at yearend when Stan Lipsey retired as publisher of The Buffalo News. It’s no exaggeration for me to say that the News might now be extinct were it not for Stan.
Berkshire 报业的一块里程碑，出现在年末——The Buffalo News 的发行人 Stan Lipsey 光荣退休。毫不夸张地说，若非 Stan，如今 The News 也许早已不复存在。
Charlie and I acquired the News in April 1977. It was an evening paper, dominant on weekdays but lacking a Sunday edition. Throughout the country, the circulation trend was toward morning papers. Moreover, Sunday was becoming ever more critical to the profitability of metropolitan dailies. Without a Sunday paper, the News was destined to lose out to its morning competitor, which had a fat and entrenched Sunday product.
Charlie 和我在 1977 年 4 月收购了 The News。那时它是一份晚报，工作日占优，但没有周日版。全国范围内，发行趋势正转向晨报；而且，周日对都会区日报的盈利性愈发关键。没有周日版，The News 注定要败给其晨报对手——后者拥有份量十足且根深蒂固的周日版。
We therefore began to print a Sunday edition late in 1977. And then all hell broke loose. Our competitor sued us, and District Judge Charles Brieant, Jr. authored a harsh ruling that crippled the introduction of our paper. His ruling was later reversed – after 17 long months – in a 3-0 sharp rebuke by the Second Circuit Court of Appeals. While the appeal was pending, we lost circulation, hemorrhaged money and stood in constant danger of going out of business.
于是我们在 1977 年底开始印刷周日版。接着，风波骤起。竞争对手起诉我们，District Judge Charles Brieant, Jr. 作出严苛裁决，几乎使我们的新版本步履维艰。17 个月后的 Second Circuit Court of Appeals 以 3–0 的判决强烈驳回了该裁定。在上诉期间，我们流失发行、亏损惨重，企业命悬一线。
Enter Stan Lipsey, a friend of mine from the 1960s, who, with his wife, had sold Berkshire a small Omaha weekly. I found Stan to be an extraordinary newspaperman, knowledgeable about every aspect of circulation, production, sales and editorial. (He was a key person in gaining that small weekly a Pulitzer Prize in 1973.) So when I was in big trouble at the News, I asked Stan to leave his comfortable way of life in Omaha to take over in Buffalo.
这时登场的是 Stan Lipsey——我在 1960 年代结识的一位朋友，他与妻子曾把一家 Omaha 的小型周报卖给 Berkshire。我发现 Stan 是一位非凡的报人，对发行、印制、销售与编辑的每个环节都了然于心。（1973 年，那份小周报获得 Pulitzer Prize，他是关键人物。）于是当 The News 陷入困境时，我请 Stan 放弃在 Omaha 安逸的生活，赴 Buffalo 接手。
He never hesitated. Along with Murray Light, our editor, Stan persevered through four years of very dark days until the News won the competitive struggle in 1982. Ever since, despite a difficult Buffalo economy, the performance of the News has been exceptional. As both a friend and as a manager, Stan is simply the best.
他毫不犹豫。与我们的主编 Murray Light 一道，Stan 经历了四年艰难岁月，直到 1982 年 The News 赢得这场竞争。从那以后，尽管 Buffalo 的经济环境不易，The News 的表现始终出类拔萃。无论作为朋友还是管理者，Stan 都无可挑剔。
同样是2013年，张一鸣的商业计划书已经很清晰的描述了推荐引擎战胜会比Google的搜索引擎更有效率，并且，推荐引擎能用技术的手段解决巴菲特所说的社区用户的属于长尾性质的需求。
4、《2015-01-31 Peter Thiel.Going from Zero to One》
And it's easy in some ways to make fun of people in business school or people who are sort of conventionally tracked. But I think we should recognize that we're all very prone to this.
在某种程度上，嘲笑商学院学生或循规蹈矩的人很容易。但我们应当意识到，我们每个人都很容易陷入这种状态。
Already in the time of Shakespeare, the word ape meant both primate and to imitate. And there is something very deep in human nature that is imitative. It has a lot of good things. It's how language gets learned by kids.
早在莎士比亚时代，ape 既指猿猴，也指模仿。模仿深植于人性，带来许多好处——孩子们学习语言就是靠模仿完成的。
It's how culture gets transmitted in our society, but it also can lead to sort of a lot of insane behavior, lead to the madness of crowds, to bubbles, to sort of mass delusions of one sort or another, and I think it can And I think it's advertising. We always tell ourselves that we're not that prone to this. And I think that's something I'd encourage all of us to rethink.
这正是文化在社会中得以传播的方式，但它也可能引发许多疯狂行为，导致群体狂热、泡沫，以及各种形式的大规模错觉，而我认为广告正是这种现象的体现。我们总是告诉自己不容易被其左右，但我鼓励大家重新思考这一点。
We always think of advertising as something that just afflicts other people, that never afflicts ourselves. I think this is very far from the case. And so the monopoly competition is not just this intellectual failure.
我们总以为广告只会影响别人，从不影响自己。事实远非如此。因此，那种趋同竞争不仅是一种思想层面的失败。
5、《2023-05-08 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
41. Paramount Global faces tough competition in streaming
派拉蒙全球在流媒体领域面临激烈竞争
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Becky?
沃伦·巴菲特：好的，贝基？
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Barry Laffer in New York City. "Berkshire owns about 94 million shares of Paramount Global as of the last published data. This asset-rich company has disappointed on recent quarterly earnings reports, and just this week slashed its dividend by 80%.
贝基·奎克：这个问题来自纽约市的巴里·拉弗。“根据最新发布的数据，伯克希尔拥有大约 9400 万股派拉蒙全球的股份。这个资产丰富的公司在最近的季度财报中令人失望，并且就在本周将其股息削减了 80%。”
"How do you see the streaming wars evolving? And do you still have conviction in your investment thesis? Is your investment thesis based on the company being an acquisition target, or based on its fundamentals?"
你如何看待流媒体战争的发展？你对你的投资论点仍然有信心吗？你的投资论点是基于公司成为收购目标，还是基于其基本面？
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And how would you like to manage my money for nothing? (LAUGH) They, you know, we are not in the business of giving stock advice to people. And people who don't know anything about stocks can make a lot of money doing that, and we don't think it's something we should give away.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。你想怎么免费管理我的钱？（笑）你知道，我们并不是给人们提供股票建议的行业。那些对股票一无所知的人也能通过这样做赚很多钱，我们认为这不是我们应该免费提供的东西。
But I will say this, it's not good news when any company passes its dividend or cuts its dividend dramatically.
但我会说，当任何公司暂停分红或大幅削减分红时，这不是好消息。
And the streaming business is extremely interesting to watch, because there's, people love to use their iPhones, watching, being entertained on a screen in front of them, or a phone, or whatever it may be.
流媒体业务非常有趣，因为人们喜欢使用他们的 iPhone，在他们面前的屏幕上或手机上观看和娱乐，无论是什么设备。
But there's a lot of companies doing it. And you need fewer companies, or you need higher prices. And, well, you need higher prices, or it doesn't work. And you don't lock in people when you get them to join up for the streaming period when your serial runs.
但有很多公司在做这个。你需要更少的公司，或者需要更高的价格。嗯，你需要更高的价格，否则它就行不通。而且，当你的节目播出时，你不能让人们在流媒体期间固定下来。
I mean, you know, you keep them on for a while, but you get them for, like, a month. And we'll see what happens. I mean, I had a gasoline station when I was 21 or 22, and it's about three or four, four or five miles from here. And we had one competitor.
我意思是，你知道，你保持它们一段时间，但你得到它们大约一个月。我们看看会发生什么。我是说，我在 21 或 22 岁时有一个加油站，离这里大约三到四、四到五英里。我们只有一个竞争对手。
And he determined our profit, because we looked at his price every day. And if we cut the price he'd match it, and we couldn't raise the price. And he did twice the gallonage, so he won. And there's just basic business problems that you see with certain industries that you don't see with the other.
他决定了我们的利润，因为我们每天都查看他的价格。如果我们降价，他就会跟着降，而我们无法提高价格。他的销量是我们的两倍，所以他赢了。在某些行业中，你会看到一些基本的商业问题，而在其他行业中则看不到。
Disney was unique in its animated — what it offered, you know — in the '30s and '40s. And they wrote the stuff off at the first showing, and then they rejuvenated Snow White and all these other people every seven years, and that was fine.
迪士尼在其动画方面是独一无二的——你知道的——在 30 年代和 40 年代。他们在第一次放映时就将这些作品注销，然后每七年就重新制作《白雪公主》和其他这些角色，这样做很好。
现在罗永浩、董宇辉、小杨哥能不能做到用1年停2年？2年以后再接着用，如果能做到就能够实现平台利益的最大化。
But this is a different world. And the eyeballs aren't going to increase dramatically in the time they can spend is not going to increase dramatically. And you've got a bunch of companies that don't want to quit. And who knows what pricing does under that. But anybody who tells you that they know what pricing will do in the future is kidding themselves.
但这是一个不同的世界。用户的注意力不会大幅增加，他们能花费的时间也不会大幅增加。而且你有一堆不想退出的公司。谁知道在这种情况下定价会怎样。但任何告诉你他们知道未来定价会怎样的人都是在自欺欺人。
Charlie? Charlie's had a lot of experience, incidentally, with Hollywood. I mean, he used to, before I even met him —
查理？顺便说一下，查理在好莱坞有很多经验。我的意思是，在我甚至见到他之前——
CHARLIE MUNGER: I think the movie business is one tough business.
查理·芒格：我认为电影行业是一个艰难的行业。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. 沃伦·巴菲特：是的。
CHARLIE MUNGER: That's my view.
查理·芒格：这是我的看法。
WARREN BUFFETT: The talent will make the money; the agents will make the money. And if you've got a theater, you know, the theaters are now doing 70% of the business that they did before the pandemic. And big hits, you know, have enormous grosses. But you can't reduce the supply.
沃伦·巴菲特：人才会赚钱；经纪人会赚钱。如果你有一个剧院，你知道，剧院现在的营业额是疫情前的 70%。而大热剧目，知道的，票房收入巨大。但你无法减少供应。
People have only got so many hours in the day. They've only got two eyeballs. And they've got more choice than ever before, and they've got stuff that's cheaper that offers them the same experience. And some of them like the experience, you know, particularly with the big hits of going.
人们一天只有那么多小时。他们只有两个眼球。而且他们的选择比以往任何时候都多，还有一些更便宜的东西能提供相同的体验。有些人喜欢这种体验，尤其是那些热门的东西。
But it isn't like you can double the number of people or double the eyeballs or anything like that. And you've got a lot of people. The talent will always get paid. And when you essentially are packaging that talent one way or another, and you need to get higher prices, and you've got a lot of strong companies who don't want to quit, that's an interesting equation.
但并不是说你可以将人数翻倍或增加关注度之类的。你有很多人。人才总是会得到报酬。当你以某种方式打包这些人才，并且需要提高价格时，而你又有很多不想退出的强大公司，这就是一个有趣的方程式。
CHARLIE MUNGER: And if you think the movies are tough, try to invest in a New York show on a conventional stage. There they think it's a breach of faith in that business to let the person who put up the money to ever get any money back. (LAUGHTER)
查理·芒格：如果你觉得电影行业很艰难，那就试试在纽约的传统舞台上投资一场演出。在那里，他们认为让出资人拿回任何钱都是对这个行业的背叛。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Yeah, well, Charlie saw a lot of that actually when —
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。是的，查理实际上看到过很多这一点，当——
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. I don't like those businesses.
查理·芒格：是的。我不喜欢那些生意。
WARREN BUFFETT: Tell them what happened on "Cleopatra, Charlie." (LAUGHTER)
沃伦·巴菲特：告诉他们“ Cleopatra，查理”发生了什么。（笑声）
It, no, it's a business that everybody's tempted. They love the idea of going in it, you know, and they get a certain amount of psychic income. But —
这，没错，这是一项让每个人都心动的生意。他们喜欢参与其中的想法，你知道，他们会获得一定的心理收益。但是——
CHARLIE MUNGER: I never owned any racehorses, either.
查理·芒格：我从来没有拥有过任何赛马。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, my father-in-law and I used to talk about claiming a horse at AK-SAR-BEN, but we never quite got around to it. And we had a lot of fun going to the track together. (LAUGH)
沃伦·巴菲特：嗯，我岳父和我曾经讨论过在AK-SAR-BEN（阿克萨本）赛马场认领一匹马，但我们从未真正实现过。我们一起去赛马场玩得很开心。（笑）
6、《2024-08-14 Eric Schmidt.The Age of AI》
Eric：And my conclusion is the CEOs in general are maximizing revenue.
Eric：我的结论是，总的来说，CEO们都在努力最大化收入。
To maximize revenue, you maximize engagement.
为了最大化收入，他们最大化用户参与度。
To maximize engagement, you maximize outrage.
为了最大化用户参与度，他们最大化煽动性内容。
The algorithms choose outrage because that generates more revenue.
算法选择煽动性内容，因为这会带来更多的收入，对吧？
Therefore, there's a bias to favor crazy stuff.
由此，算法更倾向于推荐些极端的内容。
And on all sides, I'm not making a partisan statement here.
这并不是单方面的问题。我并不是在这里做出任何偏袒的声明。
That's a problem.
这是一个问题。这个问题必须得到解决。
That's got to get addressed in a democracy. And my solution to TikTok, we talked about this earlier privately, is there was when I was a boy, there was something called the equal time rule,
在一个民主制度中，我对TikTok的解决方案是，我们之前私下讨论过，在我年轻时，有一个叫做"平等播放时间"的规则。
because TikTok is really not social media. It's really television, right?
因为TikTok实际上并不仅仅是社交媒体，它更像是电视，对吧？
There's a programmer making you the numbers by the way are 90 minutes a day, 200 TikTok videos per TikTok user in the United States.
It's a lot, right?
有程序在幕后控制你，根据统计，TikTok在美国的用户每天观看90分钟，每个用户平均观看200个TikTok视频。
So and the government is not going to do the equal time rule, but it's the right thing to do.Some form of balance that is required.
这是很大的数量，对吧？因此，政府必须采取某种形式的平衡措施。
7、《2024-09-19 Amazon’s New ‘Shark Tank’-Style Show Gives Winners Top Billing in Its Store》
The e-commerce giant plans to introduce a new competition show next month in which entrepreneurs pitch their products to a studio audience as well as to judges including Amazon executives and celebrities like Goop founder Gwyneth Paltrow and designer Christian Siriano. Finalists will have their inventions sold in a new Amazon “Buy It Now” online store, and the winner of each episode will earn $20,000.
这家电子商务巨头计划在下个月推出一档新的竞赛节目，企业家将在节目中向现场观众以及包括亚马逊高管和像 Goop 创始人格温妮斯·帕特洛和设计师克里斯蒂安·西里亚诺在内的评委推介他们的产品。决赛选手的发明将在新的亚马逊“立即购买”在线商店中销售，每集的获胜者将获得 20,000 美元。
The show is the retailer’s latest attempt to marry content and commerce. Persuading consumers to shop through Internet-enabled televisions has long been a goal of traditional entertainment companies, but getting viewers to scan the QR code can be difficult.
该节目是零售商最新尝试将内容与商业结合。说服消费者通过互联网电视购物一直是传统娱乐公司的目标，但让观众扫描二维码可能很困难。
“This feels more elegant than QR codes,” Shmulik said of Amazon’s new game show.
“这比二维码更优雅，”Shmulik 谈到亚马逊的新游戏节目时说道。
Over the past few years, Amazon has introduced ads with QR codes in about 100 shows and movies, including “The Summer I Turned Pretty,” “The Boys” and, more recently, NFL football games.
在过去的几年里，亚马逊在大约 100 部节目和电影中引入了带有二维码的广告，包括《我变漂亮的夏天》、《男孩》和最近的 NFL 橄榄球比赛。
8、《2024-11-06 The Winners and Losers From the ‘Trump Trade’ Gripping Markets》
Meta Platforms, the parent of Facebook, was the outlier among the Magnificent Seven group of tech stocks, slipping slightly. Trump referred to Facebook as “an enemy of the people” earlier this year.
Facebook 的母公司Meta Platforms是“七大科技股”中表现异常的一只，略有下滑。特朗普今年早些时候称 Facebook 为“人民的敌人”。
9、《2024-12-18 Disney’s Decision to Settle Trump Defamation Suit Prompts Backlash at ABC News》
Trump filed the suit in March, days after Stephanopoulos said multiple times in an interview with Rep. Nancy Mace (R., S.C.) on ABC’s Sunday morning news show “This Week” that Trump had been found civilly liable for raping writer E. Jean Carroll. A federal jury determined he was liable for sexual abuse, but not rape.
特朗普在三月提起诉讼，此前几天，斯蒂芬诺普洛斯在 ABC 周日早间新闻节目“本周”与南卡罗来纳州众议员南希·梅斯的采访中多次表示，特朗普被判定对作家 E. Jean Carroll 的强奸负有民事责任。联邦陪审团认定他对性虐待负有责任，但不是强奸。
Stephanopoulos later went on CBS’s “The Late Show With Stephen Colbert” and reasserted his claim that “rape” was an appropriate word to use, based on comments made by the judge in the case. “I’m not going to be cowed out of doing my job because of the threat,” Stephanopoulos said of Trump’s lawsuit.
斯特凡诺普洛斯后来参加了 CBS 的《斯蒂芬·科尔伯特晚间秀》，并重申了他的主张，认为根据案件中法官的评论，“强奸”是一个合适的词。斯特凡诺普洛斯在谈到特朗普的诉讼时说：“我不会因为威胁而不敢履行我的职责。”
A Florida judge tossed ABC’s motion to dismiss the suit in July, saying, “a reasonable jury could interpret Stephanopoulos’s statements as defamatory.”
佛罗里达州的一名法官在七月份驳回了 ABC 的撤诉动议，称“一个合理的陪审团可能会将斯特凡诺普洛斯的言论解读为诽谤。”
10、《2025-04-29 Mark Zuckerberg.Meta's AGI Plan》
Monetizing AGI
AGI的货币化
Dwarkesh Patel
Speaking of value to be unlocked, what do you think the right way to monetize AI will be? Obviously digital ads are quite lucrative. But as a fraction of total GDP, it's small compared to all remote work. Even if you can increase productivity without replacing work, that's still worth tens of trillions of dollars. Is it possible that ads might not be it? How do you think about this?
谈到可释放的价值，你认为变现人工智能的正确方式是什么？显然数字广告是非常赚钱的。但在GDP总量中所占比例，它仍远小于远程工作的规模。即便只是提高工作效率而不替代工作，本身就价值数十万亿美元。有没有可能广告并不是最终答案？你是怎么考虑这个问题的？
Mark Zuckerberg
Like we were talking about before, there's going to be all these different applications, and different applications tend toward different things.
就像我们之前讨论的，会有各种不同的应用场景，而不同的应用会自然适配不同的商业模式。
Ads are great when you want to offer people a free service. Because it's free, you need to cover it somehow. Ads solve this problem where a person does not need to pay for something. They can get something that is amazing for free. Also by the way, with modern ad systems, a lot of the time people think the ads add value to the thing if you do it well.
广告非常适合用来支持免费服务。因为服务是免费的，你总得有办法去支付成本。广告很好地解决了这个问题——用户不需要付钱也能获得很棒的服务。而且现在的广告系统做得很先进，如果做得好，用户甚至会觉得广告本身是有价值的补充。
You need to be good at ranking and you need to have enough liquidity of advertising inventory. If you only have five advertisers in the system, no matter how good you are at ranking, you may not be able to show something to someone that they're interested in. But if you have a million advertisers in the system, then you're probably going to be able to find something pretty compelling, if you're good at picking out the different needles in the haystack that that person is going to be interested in.
你得有很好的广告排序能力，也要有足够多的广告主。如果系统里只有五个广告主，不管排序做得多好，都可能无法为用户匹配到他们感兴趣的内容。但如果系统里有上百万个广告主，再加上你能精准地从海量信息中找出那个“针”，就很有可能展示出让人感兴趣的广告。
搜索引擎的数据库仍然是有价值的。
So that definitely has its place. But there are also clearly going to be other business models as well, including ones that just have higher costs so it doesn't even make sense to offer them for free. By the way, there have always been business models like this.
所以广告显然有它的用武之地。但也肯定会出现其他商业模式，尤其是那些成本较高、根本无法以免费形式提供的服务。其实一直以来就存在这样的商业模式。
There's a reason why social media is free and ad-supported, but then if you want to watch Netflix or ESPN or something, you need to pay for that. The content that's going into that, they need to produce it, and that's very expensive for them to produce. They probably could not have enough ads in the service in order to make up for the cost of producing the content. Basically, you just need to pay to access it.
比如，社交媒体之所以免费并依靠广告，是因为它的内容生产模式不同。但如果你想看Netflix或ESPN，就必须付费，因为这些内容需要制作，而制作成本非常高。他们可能根本无法通过广告覆盖掉这些制作成本。所以你就得为这些内容付费。
The trade-off is fewer people do it. Instead of billions, you're talking about hundreds of millions of people using those services. There's a value switch there. I think it's similar here. Not everyone is going to want a software engineer, or a thousand software engineering agents, or whatever it is. But if you do, that's something you're probably going to be willing to pay thousands, or tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands of dollars for.
这种模式的权衡是：使用人数会少很多。不是十亿人用，而是几亿人用。这其实是价值层级的切换。我认为AI也类似。不是每个人都需要一个或上千个软件工程师代理人。但如果你确实需要，那你很可能愿意为此支付几千、几万、甚至几十万美元。
That just speaks to the diversity of different things that need to get created. There are going to be business models at each point along the spectrum. At Meta, for the consumer piece we definitely want to have a free thing. I'm sure that will end up being ad-supported. But I also think we're going to want to have a business model that supports people using arbitrary amounts of compute to do even more amazing things than what it would make sense to offer in the free service. For that, I'm sure we'll end up having a premium service. But I think our basic values on this are that we want to serve as many people in the world as possible.
这恰恰说明了不同场景背后的多样化需求。不同层级都会有适配的商业模式。在Meta，我们希望面向消费者的服务可以是免费的，我相信最终它会通过广告来支持。但我们也需要有一种商业模式，来支持用户使用大量算力去做一些更惊艳的事情——那些不是免费服务能覆盖的部分。为此，我们肯定会推出高级付费服务。但我们的核心理念是，我们希望服务尽可能多的人。
David: Super scale economies? Yeah.
David：“超级规模经济”？也许吧。
Ben: Where does this come from? Auction-based businesses. Whenever you have auctions to determine pricing, the more liquidity you have, the higher price is. Are there other businesses that we can look at that are similar? Do scale economies ever explain why scale gets you more revenue? What is the thing where with an increase in scale, their prices go up? They maximize their available take on any given micro auction.
Ben：这是从哪里来的？我觉得是拍卖驱动型的商业模式。只要你用拍卖来定价，流动性越大，价格就越高。有没有别的行业也这样？有没有规模经济能解释“规模越大、营收越高”的？什么情况下，公司规模越大，价格反而能越高？他们能从每场微型拍卖中榨取的价值也就越大。
This is weird. I’m trying to think in another auction-based world. Christie’s would have this. Or Sotheby’s. As you get more and more people into the auction house audience, any given sale is likely to go at a higher value. A real estate brokerage, if people were actually loyal clients of a real estate brokerage.
这还挺特别的。我试图类比其他拍卖场景。比如佳士得或者苏富比就是这样，人越多，每次拍品的成交价就越高。或者一家房地产中介，如果客户真的很忠诚，也是这个逻辑。
David: Oh, is this just network economies? That the more queries you have, the more advertisers you’ll have? The more advertisers you’ll have, the more…?
David：噢，这会不会其实就是网络效应？你的搜索请求越多，就能吸引越多广告主；广告主越多，又反过来吸引更多搜索请求……
Ben: But typically network economies are when people join the network, it creates value for other people in the network. That is true from an advertiser to a searcher and a searcher to an advertiser. We should say this definitely has network economies. It’s almost like there’s negative network economies from advertiser to advertiser. You don’t want your competitors to be on the platform, but Google does.
Ben：但传统定义上的网络效应，是说新用户加入网络，会给其他用户带来价值。在 Google 这确实也成立，比如广告主对搜索用户有价值，反之亦然。所以我们可以说 Google 是有网络效应的。但广告主对广告主之间，反而有点“负网络效应”——你不希望你的竞争对手也在平台上，但 Google 却希望。
David: Maybe you’re right. Maybe there’s something unique to auction models here because the price is dynamic.
David：你可能说得对。也许这确实是拍卖模型的一种独特性，因为它的价格是动态浮动的。
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