I.H.207.Right People.Warren Buffett.Circle Of Competence
如果你对某件事是否属于你的能力圈感到怀疑，那么它就不属于。
1、《1991 Warren Buffett.Three Lectures to Notre Dame Faculty》
So we buy businesses I can understand, whether all of them or small parts of them. We never buy anything that I don’t think I can understand. I may be wrong about whether I understand it or not, but we’ve never owned a share of a technology company. There’s all kinds of businesses I don’t understand. I don’t worry about that. Why should I (garbled). You mentioned Cities Service Preferred, I didn’t understand that very well when I bought it. Ever since I met Ben Graham, I was 19, I read his book when I was 18, it made nothing but sense to me. Buy pieces of businesses you can understand when they’re offered to you for quite a bit less than they’re worth. That’s all there is to it. That’s what we try to do with 100% of the business, 7% of the business, or whatever. My partner Charlie Munger and I have been together for about 15 years, and that’s all we do. And we’ll never do anything else.
因此，我们只买自己能理解的生意，无论是整家公司还是部分股权。对不懂的东西绝不碰。我可能会误判自己是否真正理解，但我们从未买过科技股。有很多行业我不懂，我并不在意。你提到 Cities Service 优先股，我买时也没太看懂。自从我 18 岁读到本·格雷厄姆的书、19 岁拜识他以来，他的理念完全说得通：当好生意以远低于价值的价格摆在面前，就买下这“生意的一部分”。仅此而已。我们买 100% 的企业、7% 的股份，或其他比例，都是如此。我和搭档查理·芒格合作约 15 年了，只干这件事，并且永远如此。
Mrs. B is that way. I couldn’t have given her \$200 million worth of Berkshire Hathaway stock when I bought the business because she doesn’t understand stock. She understands cash. She understands furniture. She understands real estate. She doesn’t understand stocks, so she doesn’t have anything to do with them. If you deal with Mrs. B in what I would call her circle of competence... She is going to buy 5,000 end tables this afternoon (if the price is right). She is going to buy 20 different carpets in odd lots, and everything else like that \[snaps fingers] because she understands carpet. She wouldn’t buy 100 shares of General Motors if it was at 50 cents a share.
Mrs. B 也是如此。我收购她公司时，不能给她价值两亿美元的伯克希尔股票，因为她不懂股票。她懂现金、家具、地产，不懂股票，于是从不碰。要和 Mrs. B 打交道，得在她的“能力圈”内……如果价格合适，她今天下午会买 5,000 张边几、20 个品种的零头地毯等，因为她懂地毯。哪怕通用汽车的股价跌到每股 0.5 美元，她也不会买 100 股。
很有说服力的例子。
I would say that the most important thing in business, and investments, which I regard as the same thing, from our standpoint, is being able to accurately define your circle of competence. It isn’t a question of having the biggest circle of competence. I’ve got friends who are competent in a whole lot bigger area than I am, but they stray outside of it.
我认为，无论经营企业还是投资（在我看来二者无异），最重要的是准确界定自己的能力圈。关键不在于圈子大小。我有些朋友能力圈远比我大，但他们常跑到圈外去。
In that book Father, Son & Co. \[subtitle: My Life at IBM and Beyond] you may have read, that Tom Watson Junior recently wrote, he quoted his father as saying “I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots but I stay around those spots.” And that’s all there is to it in investments – and business. I always tell the students in business school they’d be better off when they got out of business school to have a punch card with 20 punches on it. And every time they made an investment decision they used up one of those punches, because they aren’t going to get 20 great ideas in their lifetime. They’re going to get five, or three, or seven, and you can get rich off five, or three, or seven. But what you can’t get rich doing is trying to get one every day. The very fact that you have, in effect, an unlimited punch card, because that’s the way the system works, you can change your mind every hour or every minute in this business, and it’s kind of cheap and easy to do because we have markets with a lot of liquidity – you can’t do that if you own farms or \[real estate] – and that very availability, that huge liquidity which people prize so much is, for most people, a curse, because it tends to make them want to do more things than they can intelligently do.
《父与子》（副标题：我的 IBM 生涯及其延伸）这本书里，汤姆·沃森二世引用父亲的话：“我不是天才。我只在某些点上聪明，但我只待在那些点。”投资与经营皆如此。我常告诉商学院学生，最好毕业时手里拿张打孔卡，上面只有 20 个孔。每做一次投资决策就打掉一个孔，因为一生不会有 20 个绝妙点子，顶多五个、三个或七个，而发财足矣；若每天都想弄一个点子，则毫无机会。投资市场本质上给了你无限打孔卡——因为流动性巨大，随时可买卖，让人容易频繁操作；可这种流动性对多数人是诅咒，让他们做出超出智力范围的动作。
If we can do one intelligent thing a year we are ecstatic. You can negotiate us down to one every two or three years without working very hard. That’s all you need. You need very few good ideas in your lifetime. You have to be willing to have the discipline to say, “I’m not going to do something I don’t understand.” Why should I do something I don’t understand? That’s why I find it an advantage to be in Omaha instead of New York. I worked in New York for a few years, and people were coming up to me on the corner and whispering in my ear all the time. I was getting excited all the time. I was a wonderful customer for the brokers.
我们每年能做成一件明智之举就欣喜若狂。你想让我们两三年才做一件，只要稍微谈谈就行。人生只需极少好点子。必须自律地说：“我不做不懂的事。”为什么要做不懂的？这就是我待在奥马哈而非纽约的好处。我曾在纽约工作几年，总有人在街角凑到耳边跟我低语，搞得我随时兴奋，是经纪人眼中的大客户。
2、《2002-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
48. How to stay in your “circle of competence”
如何保持在自己的“能力圈”内
WARREN BUFFETT: What was the first question again that —
沃伦·巴菲特：第一个问题是什么来着——
AUDIENCE MEMBER: It was how a youngster like myself would define and develop a circle of competence.
听众：是关于像我这样的年轻人如何定义和发展自己的能力圈。
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, yeah, that’s a good question. And I’m — you know. I’d — I would say this, if you have doubts about something being into your circle of competence, it isn’t.
沃伦·巴菲特：哦，是的，这是个好问题。我会说，如果你对某件事是否属于你的能力圈感到怀疑，那么它就不属于。
You know, I mean, in other words, I would look down the list of businesses and I would bet you that you can — I mean, you can understand a Coke bottler. You can understand the Coca-Cola Company. You can understand McDonald’s.
你知道我的意思，换句话说，我会看一下业务清单，我敢打赌你能理解——我的意思是，你可以理解可口可乐的瓶装商。你可以理解可口可乐公司。你可以理解麦当劳。
You can understand, you know, you can understand, in a general way, General Motors. You may not be able to value it.
你可以理解，通用汽车，你可以从总体上理解它。你可能无法对其估值。
But there are all kinds of businesses. You can certainly understand Walmart. That doesn’t mean whether you decide whether the price — what the price should be — but you understand Walmart. You can understand Costco.
但有各种各样的业务。你肯定能理解沃尔玛。这并不意味着你决定价格——价格应该是多少——但你理解沃尔玛。你可以理解好市多。
And if you get to something that your friend is buying, or that everybody says a lot of money’s going to be made, and you don’t — you’re not sure whether you understand it or not, you don’t.
如果你碰到你朋友正在买的东西，或者大家都说能赚很多钱的东西，而你不确定自己是否理解它，那就不行。
You know, I mean, and it’s better to be well within the circle than to be trying to tiptoe along the line.
你知道的，我是说，最好是完全处在能力圈内，而不是试图踮着脚走在边缘线上。
And you’ll find plenty of things within the circle. I mean, it’s not terrible to have a small circle of competence. I’d say my circle of competence is pretty small, but it’s big enough. You know, I can find a few things.
你会发现圈内有很多事情。我是说，拥有一个小的能力圈并不糟糕。我会说我的能力圈相当小，但足够大。你知道，我能找到一些事物。
And when somebody calls me with a Larson-Juhl, that is within my circle of competence. I hadn’t even thought about it before, but I know it’s within it. I mean, I can evaluate a business like that.
当有人给我打电话提到Larson-Juhl时，那就属于我的能力圈。我以前甚至没想过它，但我知道它在我的能力圈内。我的意思是，我能评估这样的生意。
And if I get called — I got called the other day on a very large finance company. I understand what they do, but I don’t understand everything that’s going on within it, and I don’t understand that — whether I can continually fund it, you know, on a basis, independent from using Berkshire’s credit, and so on.
如果我接到电话——我前几天接到电话，谈的是一家非常大的金融公司。我理解他们在做什么，但我不理解其中发生的所有事情，我也不理解——是否可以独立于使用伯克希尔的信用持续为其提供资金，等等。
So, even though I could understand every individual transaction they did, I don’t regard the whole enterprise, or the operation of it, necessarily as being within my circle of competence.
所以，尽管我能理解他们每个单独的交易，但我不认为整个企业，或它的运作，必然属于我的能力圈。
Charlie?
查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I think that if you have competence, you almost automatically have a feeling of where the edge of the competence is. Because after all, it wouldn’t be much of a competence if you didn’t know its boundary.
查理·芒格：是的，我认为，如果你有能力，你几乎自动会感知到能力的边界在哪里。毕竟，如果你不知道能力的边界，那就不算真正的能力。
And so, I think you’ve asked a question that almost answers itself.
所以，我认为你问的问题几乎已经自我解答了。
And my guess is you do know what you’re perfectly competent to do, you know, all kinds of areas. And you do have all kinds of other areas where you know you’d be over your depth.
我猜测你知道自己在哪些领域完全有能力，知道自己能做什么。而你也知道哪些领域是你无法胜任的。
I mean, you’re not trying to play chess against Bobby Fischer or do stunts on the high trapeze if you’ve had no training for it.
我的意思是，如果你没有接受过训练，你不会去和鲍比·费舍尔下棋，也不会去做高空秋千的特技。
And my guess is you know pretty well where the boundaries of your competence lies. And I think you also probably know pretty well where you want to stretch the boundary. And you’ve got to stretch the boundary by working at it, including practice.
我猜测你对自己能力的边界已经有了相当清晰的认识。我认为你也可能很清楚自己想要在哪里扩展边界。而要扩展这个边界，你必须通过努力工作，包括练习。
WARREN BUFFETT: And one of the drawbacks to Berkshire, of course, is that Charlie and I, our circles largely overlap, so you don’t get two big complete circles at all, but that’s just the way it is. And it’s probably why we get along so well, too.
沃伦·巴菲特：当然，伯克希尔的一个缺点是，查理和我，我们的能力圈大多是重叠的，所以你不会得到两个完全独立的巨大能力圈，这就是事实。而这也可能是我们相处得如此融洽的原因。
3、《2012-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well. We — I think I would describe it as we try to stay away from the things, to start with, that we don’t understand. And when I say don’t understand, it isn’t that I don’t understand, you know, what a certain business does.
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，我想我会这样描述：我们首先尽量远离那些我们不理解的事物。当我说不理解时，并不是说我不明白某个特定业务的运作。
But when I say understand, it means that I think I have a reasonably — a reasonable fix on about what the earning power and competitive position will look like in five or 10 years. So I’ve got some notion of how the industry will develop and where the company will stand within the industry.
但是当我说理解时，这意味着我认为我对未来五到十年内的盈利能力和竞争地位有一个合理的把握。因此，我对行业的发展以及公司在行业中的地位有一些概念。
Well, that eliminates a whole bunch of things. And then, beyond that, if the price is crazy, even though I understand it, that eliminates another bunch. So you get down to a very small universe, and you get down to a particularly small universe when we’re working with lots of money, as we are now.
好吧，这排除了很多东西。然后，除此之外，如果价格太离谱，即使我理解这一点，这也排除了另一部分。因此，你会缩小到一个非常小的范围，当我们处理大量资金时，尤其如此。
4、《2014-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
45. Knowing your “circle of competence”
了解你的“能力圈”
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, station 1. We’re back at — here we are.
沃伦·巴菲特：好的，第一站。我们回来了——我们在这里。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett, and hello, Mr. Munger. Thank you for being extremely generous with sharing your wisdom. My name is Chander Chawla, and I am visiting from San Francisco.
观众成员：您好，巴菲特先生，您好，芒格先生。感谢您们慷慨分享智慧。我的名字是钱德尔·查瓦拉，我来自旧金山。
In the past, you have said that people should operate within their circle of competence. My question is, how does one figure out what one’s circle of competence is? (Laughter)
在过去，你曾说过人们应该在自己的能力范围内行动。我的问题是，如何才能弄清楚自己的能力范围是什么？（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Good question. (Laughs)
沃伦·巴菲特：好问题。（笑）
Some of the people in the audience are identifying with it, I can hear them.
观众中的一些人正在与之产生共鸣，我能听到他们。
The — it’s — you know, it is a question of being self-realistic, and that applies outside of business as well.
你知道，这是一个自我现实的问题，这也适用于商业以外的领域。
And, I think Charlie and I have been reasonably good at identifying what I would call the perimeter of that circle of competence, but obviously we’ve gone out of it.
我认为查理和我在识别我所称之为能力圈的边界方面做得相当不错，但显然我们已经超出了这个范围。
I would say that in my own case, I’ve gone out of it more often in retail than in any other arena. I think it’s easy to sort of think you understand retail, and then subsequently find out you don’t, as we did with the department store in Baltimore.
我想说，就我个人而言，我在零售行业的经历比其他任何领域都要多。我认为很容易以为自己理解零售，但随后发现自己并不理解，就像我们在巴尔的摩的百货商店所经历的那样。
You could say I was outside of my circle of competence when I bought Berkshire Hathaway, although I bought it, really, to resell as a stock, originally.
你可以说我在购买伯克希尔·哈撒韦时超出了我的能力范围，尽管我买它的初衷其实是为了转售作为股票。
I probably was out of my circle of competence when I decided that I should go in and buy control of the company. That was a dumb decision — which worked out.
我可能在决定应该进去收购公司的控制权时超出了我的能力范围。那是一个愚蠢的决定——但结果却很好。
The — being realistic in appraising your own talents and shortcomings, I think — I don’t know whether that’s innate, but some people seem a whole lot better at it than the others. And I certainly know of a number of CEOs that I feel have no idea of where their circle of competence begins and ends.
—— 在评估自己的才能和缺点时要现实，我认为——我不知道这是否是与生俱来的，但有些人似乎在这方面远远优于其他人。我确实知道一些首席执行官，我觉得他们完全不知道自己的能力范围从哪里开始到哪里结束。
But, we’ve got a number of managers who I think are just terrific at it. I mean, they really know when they’re playing in the game they’re going win in, and they don’t go outside of that game.
但是，我们有一些经理，我认为他们在这方面非常出色。我的意思是，他们真的知道自己在参与的游戏中会赢，并且不会超出那个游戏。
The ultimate was Mrs. B, at the Furniture Mart. She told me that she did not want stock, in terms of the Berkshire Hathaway deal. Now, that may sound like it was a bad decision. It was a splendid decision.
伯克希尔哈撒韦交易中，最棒的人是家具城的女老板 B 夫人。她告诉我，她不想买股票。现在，这听起来可能是一个糟糕的决定。但这绝对是一个明智的决定。
She did not know anything about stock, but she knew a lot about what to do with cash. She knew real estate, she knew retailing, and she knew exactly what she knew and what she didn’t know, and that took her a long, long, long, long way in business life.
她对股票一无所知，但她对现金的处理却非常了解。她懂房地产，懂零售，并且清楚自己知道什么和不知道什么，这在商业生活中帮助了她走了很长很长的一段路。
And that — that ability to know when you’re playing the game in which you’re going to win, and playing outside of that game, is a huge asset.
并且——能够知道何时在必胜的游戏中玩，何时在游戏之外玩，这是一项巨大的优势。
I can’t tell you the best way to develop a great sense of that about yourself. You might get some of your friends that know you well to offer contributions. Charlie’s given me a few contributions occasionally, saying, “What the hell do you know about that?” That’s one way of putting it, of course. (Laughs)
我无法告诉你培养这种自我意识的最佳方法。你可以让一些熟悉你的朋友为你出谋划策。查理偶尔也会给我一些建议 他说："你到底知道些什么？"当然，这也是一种说法。（笑）
But Charlie, do — can you help him out?
但是查理，你能帮他一下吗？
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think it’s as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear to you. If you’re five-foot-two, you don’t have much of a future in the National Basketball League. And if you’re 95 years of age, you probably shouldn’t try and act the romantic lead part in Hollywood. (Laughter)
查理·芒格：嗯，我认为判断能力并不像你想的那么困难。如果你身高五英尺两寸，你在国家篮球联赛中没有太多前途。如果你 95 岁了，你可能不应该尝试在好莱坞扮演浪漫主角。（笑声）
And if you weigh 350 pounds, you probably shouldn’t try and dance the lead part in the Bolshoi Ballet. And if you can hardly count cards at all, you probably shouldn’t try and win chess tournaments playing blindfolded, and so on and so on.
如果你体重 350 磅，你可能不应该尝试在莫斯科大剧院跳主角。如果你几乎无法数牌，你可能也不应该尝试在盲棋比赛中获胜，等等。
WARREN BUFFETT: You’re ruling out everything I want to do. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：你在排除我想做的一切。（笑声）
CHARLIE MUNGER: But competency is a relative concept. And what a lot of us need, including the one speaking, is — what I needed to get ahead was to compete against idiots, and luckily there’s a large supply. (Laughter)
查理·芒格：但能力是一个相对的概念。我们很多人，包括我自己，需要的就是——我想要取得进步所需要的，是与愚蠢的人竞争，而幸运的是，这种人有很多。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Carol. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：好的，卡罗尔。（笑声）
5、《2019-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
64. Expand you circle of competence if you can, but don’t force it
如果可以的话，扩大你的能力圈，但不要强迫自己。
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station 8. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：好的。第 8 站。（笑声）
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hi, Warren. Hi, Charlie. My name is Jacob (PH). I’m a shareholder from China and also a proud graduate of Columbia Business School. Thanks for having us here. (Cheers)
观众成员：嗨，沃伦。嗨，查理。我叫雅各布（音）。我是来自中国的股东，也是哥伦比亚商学院的自豪毕业生。感谢你们邀请我们来这里。（欢呼）
My question is, our world is changing at a faster pace today versus 40 years ago and even more so going forward. And in this context, for each of us individually, should we expand our circle of competence continuously over time? Or should we stick with the existing circle but risk having a shrinking investment universe? Thank you.
我的问题是，今天我们的世界变化的速度比 40 年前快得多，未来的变化甚至更大。在这种情况下，对于我们每个人来说，是否应该随着时间的推移不断扩大我们的能力圈？还是应该坚持现有的能力圈，但冒着投资范围缩小的风险？谢谢。
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, obviously you should, under any conditions, you should expand your circle of competence —
沃伦·巴菲特：显然，在任何情况下，你都应该扩大你的能力范围——
CHARLIE MUNGER: If you can.
查理·芒格：如果你能的话。
WARREN BUFFETT: If you can. Yeah. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：如果可以的话。是的。（笑声）
And I’ve expanded mine a little bit over time. But —
我随着时间的推移稍微扩展了一下我的。可是——
CHARLIE MUNGER: If you can’t — I’d be pretty cautious.
查理·芒格：如果你不能——我会非常谨慎。
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. You can’t force it. You know. If you told me that I had to, you know, become an expert on physics or, you know —
沃伦·巴菲特：是的。你不能强迫它。你知道。如果你告诉我我必须，嗯，成为物理学的专家，或者，嗯——
CHARLIE MUNGER: Dance maybe the lead in a ballet, Warren. That would be a sight. (Laughter)
查理·芒格：沃伦，也许跳个芭蕾舞的主角，那会是个景象。（笑声）
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well. That’s one I hadn’t really —
沃伦·巴菲特：是的，嗯。这是我还没有真正——
CHARLIE MUNGER: (Inaudible) now.
查理·芒格：（听不清）现在。
WARREN BUFFETT: That’s one you may be thinking about, but I— (laughter) — it hadn’t even occurred to me. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特：你可能在考虑这个，但我——（笑）——我甚至没有想到过。（笑）
But, you know, it’s ridiculous. That doesn’t mean you can’t expand it at all. I mean, I did learn about some things as I’ve gone along in a few businesses.
但是，你知道，这太荒谬了。这并不意味着你完全不能扩展它。我的意思是，在我参与的一些业务中，我确实学到了一些东西。
In some cases, I’ve learned that I’m incompetent, which is actually a plus, then you’ve discarded that one.
在某些情况下，我意识到自己无能，这实际上是一个优点，那么你就抛弃了那个。
But it doesn’t really — the world is going to change. And it’s going to keep changing. It’s changing every day. And that makes it interesting. You know.
但实际上并不是这样——世界将会改变。而且它会不断变化。它每天都在变化。这使得它变得有趣。你知道的。
And as it changes, certainly within what you think is your present existing circle, you have to — you should be the master of figuring that one out or it really isn’t your circle of competence.
随着变化，当然在你认为的现有圈子内，你必须——你应该成为弄清楚这一点的高手，否则这真的就不是你的能力范围。
And if you get a chance to expand it somewhat as you go along —
如果你有机会在进行过程中稍微扩展一下——
I’ve learned some about the energy business from Walter (Scott) and Greg (Abel) as we’ve worked together, but I’m not close to their level of competence on it. But I do know more than I used to know. And so, you get a chance to expand it a bit.
我从沃尔特（斯科特）和格雷格（阿贝尔）那里学到了一些关于能源业务的知识，尽管我与他们的能力水平相差甚远。但我确实比以前知道得更多。因此，你有机会稍微扩展一下。
Usually, I would think normally your core competence is probably something that sort of fits the way the mind has worked.
通常，我认为你的核心竞争力可能是某种适合思维运作方式的东西。
Some people have what I call a “money mind.” And they will work well in certain types of money situations.
有些人拥有我所称之为“金钱思维”。他们在某些类型的金钱情况下表现良好。
It isn’t so much a question of IQ. The mind is a very strange thing. And people have specialties, whether in chess or bridge. I see it in different people that can do impossible — what seem to me — impossible things. And they’re really kind of, as Charlie would say, stupid in other areas — (laughs) — you know.
这并不是智商的问题。思维是一件非常奇怪的事情。人们都有自己的专长，无论是在国际象棋还是桥牌上。我看到不同的人能够做一些看似不可能的事情。而他们在其他领域真的有点，正如查理所说，愚蠢——（笑）——你知道的。
So just keep working on it. But don’t think you have to increase it and therefore start bending the rules. Anything further, Charlie?
所以继续努力。但不要认为你必须增加它，因此开始违反规则。还有其他问题吗，查理？
CHARLIE MUNGER: No. 查理·芒格：不。
6、《2024-10-12 She’s a Retirement Authority—and Still Made Mistakes. Here’s What She’d Do Differently.》
Alicia Munnell spent decades trying to improve how Americans retire. Even she made mistakes in her retirement planning.
艾丽西亚·芒内尔花了几十年时间试图改善美国人的退休方式。即便如此，她在退休规划中也犯了错误。
The 82-year-old economist announced Thursday that she will step down at year-end as director of Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, a think tank she founded in 1998.
82 岁的经济学家周四宣布，她将在年底辞去波士顿学院退休研究中心主任的职务，该智库是她于 1998 年创立的。
Munnell also served as an assistant secretary at the Treasury Department under President Bill Clinton, following 20 years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. When she made that transition, she took her pension early. That decision is now one of her major regrets.
穆内尔还曾在比尔·克林顿总统任内担任财政部助理部长，此前她在波士顿联邦储备银行工作了 20 年。当她做出这一转变时，她提前领取了养老金。这个决定现在是她的主要遗憾之一。
Like many people, she lacks the time and interest to manage money, she says. She relies on occasional advice from her son, who works at a financial firm.
像许多人一样，她缺乏管理金钱的时间和兴趣，她说。她依靠在金融公司工作的儿子偶尔提供的建议。
“Every now and then, he tells me to send him my asset allocation and then he tells me how to adjust it. If I had to figure out what to invest in, I’d have no clue,” said Munnell. “People have busy lives. Retirement planning should not be something they have to put a lot of effort into.”
“他时不时地让我把我的资产配置发给他，然后告诉我如何调整。如果让我自己决定投资什么，我会毫无头绪，”穆内尔说。“人们的生活都很忙碌。退休规划不应该是他们需要投入大量精力的事情。”
Her work covers everything from improving the 401(k) to whether the U.S. faces a retirement crisis. (Answer: Probably yes, since she and her colleagues calculate about 40% of the working population isn’t saving enough to maintain their lifestyle throughout retirement.)
她的工作涵盖了从改善 401(k)到美国是否面临退休危机的方方面面。（答案：很可能是，因为她和她的同事计算出大约 40%的工作人口没有足够的储蓄来维持他们的退休生活方式。）
The Wall Street Journal spoke with Munnell about her personal and professional retirement journey. Here are edited excerpts from the conversation:
《华尔街日报》与芒内尔谈论了她个人和职业的退休之旅。以下是对话的编辑摘录：
WSJ: How did you know the time was right?
WSJ: 你是怎么知道时机成熟的？
Munnell: This is not a premature retirement. You want to stop while you’re at the top of your game, rather than have people rolling their eyes when you start to make a point. My children said, “We thought you’d work forever.” My response was, “I did.”
Munnell： 这不是过早退休。你想在你事业的巅峰期停下来，而不是等到你开始发表观点时让人翻白眼。我的孩子们说：“我们以为你会永远工作下去。”我的回答是：“我确实如此。”
WSJ: Do you have a plan for how you want to spend your time?
WSJ: 你有计划如何安排你的时间吗？
Munnell: For the first year, I will work some as a senior adviser to the center.
芒内尔： 在第一年，我将作为高级顾问为中心工作一些时间。
I play bridge competitively and would like to go back to tournaments. If I have a chance to attend lectures or learn ballroom dancing or how to be a better cook, I’ll do it and see what I like.我参加桥牌比赛，并希望重返比赛。如果有机会参加讲座或学习交谊舞或如何成为更好的厨师，我会去尝试，看看我喜欢什么。
One thing I didn’t plan well is to think about whether we want to live in a retirement community. I always thought the idea of commuting between a retirement community and a job didn’t make sense.
有一件事我没有计划好，那就是考虑我们是否想住在退休社区。我一直认为在退休社区和工作之间通勤的想法没有意义。
WSJ: Are there financial decisions you regret?
WSJ: 你是否有后悔的财务决策？
Munnell: When I left the Federal Reserve at age 50, I listened to someone who said I should take my monthly pension benefit early because I’d be so much better at investing the money than the Fed. So I took my monthly checks starting at 50 and didn’t invest a penny. Very quickly, my pension check became part of my spending. The monthly payment would have been meaningfully higher had I not taken it early.
Munnell: 当我 50 岁离开美联储时，我听从了一个人的建议，提前领取了我的月度养老金，因为他说我在投资这笔钱方面会比美联储好得多。所以我从 50 岁开始领取月度支票，但一分钱都没有投资。很快，我的养老金支票就成了我开支的一部分。如果我没有提前领取，月度支付会高得多。
Another bad decision is that I didn’t move any of my money from a traditional 401(k) to a Roth 401(k). Neither did my husband. So we have to take more withdrawals than we need right now and pay the taxes. Someone should have said, “If you’re going to work until 82, you might not want to put all your savings into a traditional 401(k). Put some into a Roth.”
另一个错误的决定是我没有把我的钱从传统的 401(k)转到 Roth 401(k)。我丈夫也没有。所以我们现在不得不提取比我们需要的更多的钱并支付税款。应该有人说：“如果你打算工作到 82 岁，你可能不想把所有的储蓄都放进传统的 401(k)。把一些放进 Roth。”
Years ago, I also took some after-tax money out of a retirement account to help with a child’s wedding, which was probably not a smart thing to do
几年前，我也从退休账户中取出了一些税后资金来帮助孩子的婚礼，这可能不是一个明智的决定
WSJ: What decisions worked especially well for you?
WSJ: 哪些决策对你特别有效？
Munnell: One good thing I did was to look at our budget in the 1990s. My husband and I were going to retire at 65, but the house we owned was too big and too expensive. We downsized to a co-op. Working longer helped too, both financially and because I love what I do.
Munnell: 我做的一件好事是查看我们在 1990 年代的预算。我和我丈夫打算在 65 岁退休，但我们拥有的房子太大且太贵。我们缩小到一个合作公寓。工作时间更长也有帮助，既是因为经济原因，也是因为我热爱我的工作。
WSJ: The center estimates many Americans are at risk of ending up with a savings shortfall in retirement. Have you done the math on your own situation?
WSJ: 该中心估计，许多美国人在退休时面临储蓄不足的风险。你是否计算过自己的情况？
Munnell: Yes. We can maintain our lifestyle in retirement. But if we had retired at 65, we would have had to be more careful. Munnell: 是的。我们可以在退休后维持我们的生活方式。但如果我们在 65 岁退休，就必须更加谨慎。
WSJ: How should the U.S. improve its retirement savings system?
WSJ: 美国应该如何改进其退休储蓄系统？
Munnell: The whole debate about pensions versus 401(k)s is not very productive. For one-third of the population who have continuous access to a retirement plan, it seems like the 401(k), with automatic enrollment into target-date funds, works fine.
Munnell： 关于养老金与 401(k)的争论并不是很有成效。对于三分之一能够持续参与退休计划的人来说，自动加入目标日期基金的 401(k)似乎运作良好。
The biggest issue is that a lot of workers aren’t covered by a retirement plan. We need to design a nationwide system where all workers are automatically enrolled, so the system provides universal coverage.
最大的问题是，许多工人没有退休计划。我们需要设计一个全国性的系统，让所有工人自动加入，以便该系统提供全民覆盖。
热门主题
Related Articles
Warren Buffett Quotes
1.Everything that can’t go on forever will end. 一切无法永远持续的事物都会结束。 -Warren E. Buffett, on expecting and accepting change, in “About Investing” Warren Buffet Speaks: Wit and wisdom from the world’s greatest investor, 2007. 2.I’m like a basketball coach. ...2023-05-03 WARREN BUFFETT GUIDE TO INVESTING-FROM CNBC
Warren Buffett is showing no signs of slowing down in his early nineties amid an increasingly difficult investing environment. Despite the turmoil, the “Oracle of Omaha” has been as active as ever. Buffett’s buying spree of energy giant Occidental ...2012-05-07 Warren Buffett's live appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box
This is a transcript of Warren Buffett's live appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box on Monday, May 7, 2012. Announcer: This weekend Warren Buffett faced tens of thousands of Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Today he faces SQUAWK BOX. Plus, in depth ...1990-03-02 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Our gain in net worth during 1989 was $1.515 billion, or 44.4%. Over the last 25 years (that is, since present management took over) our per-share book value has grown from $19.46 to $4,296.01, or at a ...1994-03-01 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders
To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: Our per-share book value increased 14.3% during 1993. Over the last 29 years (that is, since present management took over) book value has grown from $19 to $8,854, or at a rate of 23.3% compounded ...