45. Knowing your “circle of competence”
了解你的“能力圈”
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, station 1. We’re back at — here we are.
沃伦·巴菲特:好的,第一站。我们回来了——我们在这里。
AUDIENCE MEMBER: Hello, Mr. Buffett, and hello, Mr. Munger. Thank you for being extremely generous with sharing your wisdom. My name is Chander Chawla, and I am visiting from San Francisco.
观众成员:您好,巴菲特先生,您好,芒格先生。感谢您们慷慨分享智慧。我的名字是钱德尔·查瓦拉,我来自旧金山。
In the past, you have said that people should operate within their circle of competence. My question is, how does one figure out what one’s circle of competence is? (Laughter)
在过去,你曾说过人们应该在自己的能力范围内行动。我的问题是,如何才能弄清楚自己的能力范围是什么?(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETT: Good question. (Laughs)
沃伦·巴菲特:好问题。(笑)
Some of the people in the audience are identifying with it, I can hear them.
观众中的一些人正在与之产生共鸣,我能听到他们。
The — it’s — you know, it is a question of being self-realistic, and that applies outside of business as well.
你知道,这是一个自我现实的问题,这也适用于商业以外的领域。
And, I think Charlie and I have been reasonably good at identifying what I would call the perimeter of that circle of competence, but obviously we’ve gone out of it.
我认为查理和我在识别我所称之为能力圈的边界方面做得相当不错,但显然我们已经超出了这个范围。
I would say that in my own case, I’ve gone out of it more often in retail than in any other arena. I think it’s easy to sort of think you understand retail, and then subsequently find out you don’t, as we did with the department store in Baltimore.
我想说,就我个人而言,我在零售行业的经历比其他任何领域都要多。我认为很容易以为自己理解零售,但随后发现自己并不理解,就像我们在巴尔的摩的百货商店所经历的那样。
You could say I was outside of my circle of competence when I bought Berkshire Hathaway, although I bought it, really, to resell as a stock, originally.
你可以说我在购买伯克希尔·哈撒韦时超出了我的能力范围,尽管我买它的初衷其实是为了转售作为股票。
I probably was out of my circle of competence when I decided that I should go in and buy control of the company. That was a dumb decision — which worked out.
我可能在决定应该进去收购公司的控制权时超出了我的能力范围。那是一个愚蠢的决定——但结果却很好。
The — being realistic in appraising your own talents and shortcomings, I think — I don’t know whether that’s innate, but some people seem a whole lot better at it than the others. And I certainly know of a number of CEOs that I feel have no idea of where their circle of competence begins and ends.
—— 在评估自己的才能和缺点时要现实,我认为——我不知道这是否是与生俱来的,但有些人似乎在这方面远远优于其他人。我确实知道一些首席执行官,我觉得他们完全不知道自己的能力范围从哪里开始到哪里结束。
But, we’ve got a number of managers who I think are just terrific at it. I mean, they really know when they’re playing in the game they’re going win in, and they don’t go outside of that game.
但是,我们有一些经理,我认为他们在这方面非常出色。我的意思是,他们真的知道自己在参与的游戏中会赢,并且不会超出那个游戏。
The ultimate was Mrs. B, at the Furniture Mart. She told me that she did not want stock, in terms of the Berkshire Hathaway deal. Now, that may sound like it was a bad decision. It was a splendid decision.
伯克希尔哈撒韦交易中,最棒的人是家具城的女老板 B 夫人。她告诉我,她不想买股票。现在,这听起来可能是一个糟糕的决定。但这绝对是一个明智的决定。
She did not know anything about stock, but she knew a lot about what to do with cash. She knew real estate, she knew retailing, and she knew exactly what she knew and what she didn’t know, and that took her a long, long, long, long way in business life.
她对股票一无所知,但她对现金的处理却非常了解。她懂房地产,懂零售,并且清楚自己知道什么和不知道什么,这在商业生活中帮助了她走了很长很长的一段路。
And that — that ability to know when you’re playing the game in which you’re going to win, and playing outside of that game, is a huge asset.
并且——能够知道何时在必胜的游戏中玩,何时在游戏之外玩,这是一项巨大的优势。
I can’t tell you the best way to develop a great sense of that about yourself. You might get some of your friends that know you well to offer contributions. Charlie’s given me a few contributions occasionally, saying, “What the hell do you know about that?” That’s one way of putting it, of course. (Laughs)
我无法告诉你培养这种自我意识的最佳方法。你可以让一些熟悉你的朋友为你出谋划策。查理偶尔也会给我一些建议 他说:"你到底知道些什么?"当然,这也是一种说法。(笑)
But Charlie, do — can you help him out?
但是查理,你能帮他一下吗?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think it’s as difficult to figure out competence as it may appear to you. If you’re five-foot-two, you don’t have much of a future in the National Basketball League. And if you’re 95 years of age, you probably shouldn’t try and act the romantic lead part in Hollywood. (Laughter)
查理·芒格:嗯,我认为判断能力并不像你想的那么困难。如果你身高五英尺两寸,你在国家篮球联赛中没有太多前途。如果你 95 岁了,你可能不应该尝试在好莱坞扮演浪漫主角。(笑声)
And if you weigh 350 pounds, you probably shouldn’t try and dance the lead part in the Bolshoi Ballet. And if you can hardly count cards at all, you probably shouldn’t try and win chess tournaments playing blindfolded, and so on and so on.
如果你体重 350 磅,你可能不应该尝试在莫斯科大剧院跳主角。如果你几乎无法数牌,你可能也不应该尝试在盲棋比赛中获胜,等等。
WARREN BUFFETT: You’re ruling out everything I want to do. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特:你在排除我想做的一切。(笑声)
CHARLIE MUNGER: But competency is a relative concept. And what a lot of us need, including the one speaking, is — what I needed to get ahead was to compete against idiots, and luckily there’s a large supply. (Laughter)
查理·芒格:但能力是一个相对的概念。我们很多人,包括我自己,需要的就是——我想要取得进步所需要的,是与愚蠢的人竞争,而幸运的是,这种人有很多。(笑声)
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, Carol. (Laughter)
沃伦·巴菲特:好的,卡罗尔。(笑声)