I.H.203.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

通胀是一股强大的淘汰弱者的机制，来源于人类自身的恐惧。

1、《1987-10-19 Warren Buffett.What we can learn from Phil Fisher》

If that’s what’s coming, how does one protect oneself against this hyperinflation?

如果真要发生，那么该如何保护自己免受这种恶性通胀的伤害？

I made as deep a study as I could of what happened after World War I in France, where there was lots of inflation, and in Germany, where there was inflation into infinity. And in both countries the same thing happened. If you bought the very best stocks, according to my definition–not just any stocks–you were still darned uncomfortable during that period of the spiraling inflation. But when the inflation was over, you came out of it with about 80% of the real purchasing power intact.

我尽可能深入研究了一战之后的France（那里有大量通胀）以及Germany（那里通胀无限制地发展）的情况。在这两个国家，都出现了同样的现象：如果你按照我的定义买入“最优秀的股票”——而不是随便什么股票——在通胀螺旋上升的时期你仍会非常难受。但当通胀结束时，你大约能保住80%的实际购买力。

If I can come out of it with 80% of my present assets in real money, and my people can do that, that is fine. Until then I’m keeping a fair amount in Treasury bills.

如果我能以实际购买力计算保住当下资产的80%，而我的投资人也能做到，那就足够了。在那之前，我会把相当一部分资金放在Treasury bills上。

Timing these things is so damnably difficult. I don’t want to be the smart guy with too much cash because I think a big break is coming. Nor do I want, once it comes, to spend too long getting myself ready. When you’re not sure, you hedge. Very roughly, I have between 65% and 68% in the four stocks I really like, between 20% and 25% in cash and equivalents, and the balance in the five stocks that are in the grooming stage.

把握时点实在是难到要命。我不想因为预期大跌而持有过多现金，装作聪明人；也不想在它真的到来时花太久时间做准备。当你不确定，就对冲。大致来说，我把65%到68%的资金放在我真正喜欢的四只股票上，20%到25%放在现金及等价物上，剩余的放在五只仍处于“grooming stage（培养阶段）”的股票上。

2、《2012-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》

Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as “income.”

即使在对货币稳定有强烈诉求的美国，自我在1965年接管Berkshire以来，美元价值已惊人地下跌了86%。如今至少需要7美元才能买到当年1美元能买到的东西。因此，在那段时期里，一个免税机构需要从债券投资中每年获得4.3%的利息，才能仅仅维持其购买力。如果管理者把其中任何一部分利息当作“收益”，那就是自欺欺人。

For tax-paying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-year period, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7% return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor’s visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points. It’s noteworthy that the implicit inflation “tax” was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. “In God We Trust” may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government’s printing press has been all too human.

对于像你我这样需要纳税的投资者，情况要糟糕得多。在同样的47年期间，不断滚动持有美国国库券的年化收益为5.7%。听起来还不错。但如果个人投资者平均按25%的税率缴纳个税，那么这5.7%的回报在实际收入上将一无所获。该投资者可见的所得税会从名义收益中剥走1.4个百分点，而无形的通胀税会吞噬剩下的4.3个百分点。值得注意的是，这种隐含的通胀“税”超过了投资者自以为的主要负担——显性所得税——的三倍。“In God We Trust”或许印在我们的货币上，但推动政府印钞机的手却太过“人性”。

3、《2015-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, the best businesses during inflation are usually the best — they’re the businesses that you buy once and then you don’t have to keep making capital investments subsequently.

沃伦·巴菲特：是的。在通货膨胀期间，最好的企业通常是最好的——它们是你一次购买后就不需要再进行后续资本投资的企业。

So you get — you do not face the problem of continuous reinvestment involving greater and greater dollars because of inflation.

所以你就不会面临由于通货膨胀而导致的持续再投资问题，这涉及到越来越多的资金。

That’s one reason real estate, in general, is good during inflation. If you built your own house 55 years ago like Charlie did, or bought one 55 years ago like I did, it’s a one-time outlay, whereas if you’re — and you get the — you get an inflationary expansion in replacement capital without having to replace yourself.

这也是为什么房地产在通货膨胀期间通常表现良好的原因之一。如果你像Charlie一样在55年前建造了自己的房子，或者像我一样在55年前购买了一套房子，这就是一次性支出，而如果你——你会看到——你会在不需要自己替换的情况下获得通货膨胀带来的资本扩张。

And if you’ve got something that’s useful to someone else, it tends to be priced in terms of replacement value over time, so you really get the inflationary kick.

如果你拥有对别人有用的东西，它的价格往往会随着时间的推移而以替代价值来定价，因此你确实会感受到通货膨胀的影响。

Now, if you’re in a business such as the utility business or the railroad business, it just keeps eating up more and more money, and your depreciation charges are inadequate and you’re kidding yourself as to your real economic profits.

现在，如果你从事的是公用事业或铁路行业，这些行业只会不断消耗更多的钱，而你的折旧费用不足，你对自己真实的经济利润自欺欺人。

这是很严重的缺陷。

So, any business with heavy capital investment tends to be a poor business to be in in inflation and often it’s a poor business to be in generally.

因此，任何需要大量资本投资的企业在通货膨胀时期往往是一个不好的行业，通常来说，这也是一个不好的行业。

And the business where you buy something once — a brand is a wonderful thing to own during inflation.

而那些一次性购买的业务——品牌在通货膨胀期间是非常有价值的。

You know, See’s Candy built their brand many years ago. Now, we’ve had to nourish it as we’ve gone along, but the value of that brand increases during inflation, just as the value of, really, any strongly branded goods.

你知道，See’s Candy 多年前就建立了他们的品牌。现在，我们在发展过程中不得不不断滋养它，但在通货膨胀期间，那个品牌的价值会增加，就像任何强势品牌商品的价值一样。

Gillette bought the entire radio rights to the World Series in 1939. And as I remember, it cost them $100,000, and for that they got to broadcast the Yankees, I think, versus the Reds in 1939.

Gillette在1939年购买了整个世界大赛的无线电广播权。根据我记得的情况，它花费了他们10万美元，他们获得了广播1939年洋基队对红人队的比赛。

And think of the number of impressions they made on minds in 1939 dollars for $100,000, and they were getting in the minds of young guys like myself. I was eight or nine. And millions of people — and they did it in those dollars then.

想想他们在 1939 年用 10 万美元对人们心灵产生的影响，以及他们在像我这样的年轻人心中留下的印象。我那时八九岁。还有数百万人——他们当时就是这样做到的。

And, of course, if you were going to go out and try out and do — have similar impressions on millions of minds now, it’d cost a fortune. And part of that is due to inflation. Part of it’s due to other things.

当然，如果你打算出去尝试并在数百万人的心中产生类似的印象，这将花费一大笔钱。这部分是由于通货膨胀，另一部分则是由于其他因素。

But it was a great investment, which could be made in 1939 dollars that paid off, in terms of selling razors and blades in 1960 and 1970 and 1980 dollars.

但这是一个很好的投资，使用 1939 年的美元进行投资，最终在 1960 年、1970 年和 1980 年的美元中获得了回报，体现在剃须刀和刀片的销售上。

软件企业的工资费用没有真的消失，钱付了，软件更好了。

So that’s the kind of business you want to own.

所以这就是你想拥有的那种生意。

I.H.203.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

I.H.203.Warren Buffett.High Inflation

1、《1987-10-19 Warren Buffett.What we can learn from Phil Fisher》

2、《2012-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》

3、《2015-05-02 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》

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