I.H.182.Warren Buffett.Alignment
巴菲特有一套对齐的方法，是从人性最基本的层面（对于风险的敏感性）不断往外扩展，就是我们之前提的“一致性”，王阳明说的“知行合一”要差一些，更好的说法是对齐（alignment），alignment和人工智能的开创性论文：Attention Is All You Need，两者加在一起是巴菲特思想的现代化解释。
Many corporate managers, in fact, exhibit a bit of schizophrenia regarding equities. They consider their own stocks to be screamingly attractive. But, concomitantly, they stamp approval on pension policies rejecting purchases of common stocks in general. And the boss, while wearing his acquisition hat, will eagerly bid 150% to 200% of book value for businesses typical of corporate America but, wearing his pension hat, will scorn investment in similar companies at book value. Can his own talents be so unique that he is justified both in paying 200 cents on the dollar for a business if he can get his hands on it, and in rejecting it as an unwise pension investment at 100 cents on the dollar if it must be left to be run by his companions at the Business Roundtable?
事实上，许多企业管理者在对待股票的问题上表现出某种精神分裂。他们认为自家股票便宜得吓人，但与此同时又批准养老金政策，普遍拒绝买入普通股。同一位老板，戴上并购帽时，愿意为美国典型企业支付账面价值150%到200%的价格；可戴上养老金帽时，却鄙视以账面价值买入类似公司。难道他的才能如此独特，以至于当他能亲自掌控企业时，支付“两美元买一美元”就合理，而如果必须让商业圆桌会议的同行来经营，就断言“一美元买一美元”是不明智的养老金投资？
... Incidentally, I would say that almost everybody I know in Wall Street has had as many good ideas as I have, they just had a lot of \[bad] ideas too. And I’m serious about that. I mean when I bought Western Insurance Security selling at \$16 and earning \$20 per share, I put half my net worth into it. I checked it out first – I went down to the insurance commission and got out the convention statements, I read Best’s, and I did a lot of things first. But, I mean, my dad wasn’t in it, I’d only had one insurance class at Columbia – but it was not beyond my capabilities to do that, and it isn’t beyond your capabilities.
……顺便说一句，我想说的是，在华尔街我认识的几乎所有人都有和我一样多的好主意，他们只不过也有很多[糟糕的]主意。我是认真的。比如当我以每股16美元买入、而每股赚20美元的Western Insurance Security时，我把自己一半的净资产都投了进去。我事先做过调查——我去了保险监管机构，调出了年会报告，我查阅了《贝斯特年鉴》，还做了很多其他功课。但我的父亲并没有参与，我在哥伦比亚大学也只上过一门保险课——然而做这件事并未超出我的能力范围，也不会超出你们的能力范围。
可靠性不足，运气是不确定的，没有自己的脑子是确定的，不确定的运气+确定性的没有脑子。
Now if I had some rare insight about software, or something like that – I would say that, maybe, other people couldn’t do that – or biotechnology, or something. And I’m not saying that every insight that I have is an insight that somebody else could have, but there were all kinds of people that could have understood American Express Company as well as I understood it in ‘62. They may have been...they may have had a different temperament than I did, so that they were paralyzed by fear, or that they wanted the crowd to be with them, or something like that, but I didn’t know anything about credit cards that they didn’t know, or about travelers checks. Those are not hard products to understand. But what I did have was an intense interest and I was willing, when I saw something I wanted to do, to do it. And if I couldn’t see something to do, to not do anything. By far, the most important quality is not how much IQ you’ve got. IQ is not the scarce factor. You need a reasonable amount of intelligence, but the temperament is 90% of it.
如果我对软件之类的领域有某种罕见的洞见——那我会说，也许别人就做不到——比如生物技术。但我并不是说我拥有的每一个洞见别人都可以拥有，不过在1962年，有很多人本可以像我一样理解美国运通公司。他们也许……他们也许与我有着不同的性情，以至于被恐惧麻痹，或者想要随大流，诸如此类；但关于信用卡或旅行支票，我并不比他们了解更多。这些产品并不难理解。但我拥有的是强烈的兴趣，并且当我发现想做的事情时，我愿意去做；而当我找不到可做之事时，就什么也不做。最重要的品质绝不是你的智商有多高。智商并不是稀缺因素。你需要适量的智力，但性格（气质）占了90%。
That’s why Graham is so important. Graham’s book \[The Intelligent Investor] talks about the qualities of temperament you have to bring to the game, and that is the game.
这就是格雷厄姆如此重要的原因。格雷厄姆的书《聪明的投资者》讨论了你在投资游戏中必须具备的性格特质，而那正是游戏本身。
But that — I don’t want to bet on anybody else. I mean, in the end, we want to understand, ourselves, where we think a business is going. And if somebody tells us the business is going to change a lot, in Wall Street, they love to tell you that, you know, that’s great opportunity.
但问题在于——我不想押注任何其他人。归根结底，我们希望亲自理解一家企业将走向何处。如果有人告诉我们这门生意将发生巨变，华尔街最爱说“那是巨大机会”。
They don’t think it’s a great opportunity when Wall Street itself is going to change a lot, incidentally. (Laughter)
顺便说一句，当华尔街自身要发生巨变时，他们却并不认为那是巨大机会。（笑声）
But they — you know, it’s a great opportunity. We don’t think it’s an opportunity at all. I mean, we — it scares the hell out of us. Because we don’t know how things are going to change.
但他们——你知道，总说那是巨大机会。而我们根本不这么看。坦白讲——这会把我们吓坏。因为我们不知道事情会如何变化。
快速变化往往导致不理性的行为，我自己一直有一个简单的假设，人都是野生动物，对风险极其敏感，那些快速接近的事物很可能引起的不理性的行为。
4、《1998-02-27 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》
How We Think About Market Fluctuations
我们如何看待市场波动
A short quiz: If you plan to eat hamburgers throughout your life and are not a cattle producer, should you wish for higher or lower prices for beef? Likewise, if you are going to buy a car from time to time but are not an auto manufacturer, should you prefer higher or lower car prices? These questions, of course, answer themselves.
来个小测验：如果你一辈子都要吃汉堡、但并非养牛人，你该希望牛肉价格更高还是更低？同理，如果你不时要买车、却不是汽车制造商，你该偏好更高还是更低的车价？这些问题当然不言自明。
But now for the final exam: If you expect to be a net saver during the next five years, should you hope for a higher or lower stock market during that period? Many investors get this one wrong. Even though they are going to be net buyers of stocks for many years to come, they are elated when stock prices rise and depressed when they fall. In effect, they rejoice because prices have risen for the "hamburgers" they will soon be buying. This reaction makes no sense. Only those who will be sellers of equities in the near future should be happy at seeing stocks rise. Prospective purchasers should much prefer sinking prices.
但现在来一道期末题：如果你预期未来五年是净储蓄者，你该希望这段时间里股市更高还是更低？许多投资者答错了。尽管他们在很多年里都会是股票的净买方，但股价上涨时他们欣喜若狂，下跌时却沮丧不已。实质上，他们是在为即将买到的“汉堡”涨价而高兴。这种反应毫无道理。只有近期将卖出股票的人，才该在股价上涨时高兴；有购入计划的人更应偏好价格回落。
5、《2008-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
WARREN BUFFETT: And there’s nothing wrong with the know-nothing investor practicing it. It’s exactly what they should practice. It’s exactly what a good professional investor should not practice. But that’s — you know, there’s no contradiction in that.
沃伦·巴菲特：对于一无所知的投资者来说，实践这种方法没有任何问题。这正是他们应该实践的。正是一个好的专业投资者不应该实践的。但这——你知道，这并不矛盾。
It — a know-nothing investor will get decent results as long as they know they’re a know-nothing investor, diversify as to time they purchase their equities, and as to the equities they purchase. That’s crazy for somebody that really knows what they’re doing.
一个一无所知的投资者只要知道自己是一无所知的投资者，并在购买股票的时间和所购买的股票上进行多元化，就会获得不错的结果。对于真正知道自己在做什么的人来说，这很疯狂。
6、《2012-02-25 Warren Buffett's Letters to Berkshire Shareholders》
The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks rise. You benefit when stocks swoon. Emotions, however, too often complicate the matter: Most people, including those who will be net buyers in the future, take comfort in seeing stock prices advance. These shareholders resemble a commuter who rejoices after the price of gas increases, simply because his tank contains a day’s supply.
逻辑很简单：如果你未来将成为股票的净买入者——无论是直接用你自己的钱，还是间接地（通过你所持有、正在回购股份的公司）——当股价上涨时你会受损，当股价下跌时你会受益。然而情绪常常使问题复杂化：大多数人——包括那些未来会成为净买入者的人——看到股价上涨会感到欣慰。这类股东很像一位通勤者，仅仅因为自己的油箱还存着一天的油，就在油价上涨后感到高兴。
7、《2025-05-03 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》
I’ve always told my kids that their sound isn’t my sound, but you don’t necessarily find it on the first job you take. But if you get lucky like I did, you find it when you’re very young and then you just keep doing it. Don’t worry too much about starting salaries and be very careful who you work for because you will take on the habits of the people around you. There are certain jobs you shouldn’t take.
我一直告诉孩子们：他们的“声音”不是我的“声音”，而且你未必能在第一份工作里就找到它。但如果你足够幸运，像我一样很早就找到，那就持续去做。别过分在意起薪，并且要谨慎选择你的雇主，因为你会沾染身边人的习惯。有些工作，你就不该去做。
Trying to change things in government is an interesting proposition in the country because you get self-selection in terms of the people that go into government and continue in it. And to some extent they keep having to make decisions that they don’t like as they go along and they learn to accept them or rationalize them or whatever it may be.
在这个国家，试图通过政府去改变，是一个“有趣”的命题，因为走进并留在政府的人群本身就具有自我筛选的特征。在某种程度上，他们一路上会做出自己并不喜欢的决定，并逐渐学会接受、或为之寻找理由，诸如此类。
But it’s still – this country’s worked out better than any country in the world. So you can’t argue it was a failure, but you can’t argue that there are certain problems that are terribly tough to figure out ways to solve. And of course, one of them gets back to the fiscal problem I mentioned before because it’s easy to spend money and it’s hard to cut people’s receipts.
但即便如此——这个国家的运转仍优于世界上任何国家。所以你不能称之为失败；但你也不能否认，有些问题极难找到解决路径。当然，其中之一又回到我之前提到的财政问题：花钱容易、削减他人收入很难。
And if you get elected, you’re going to say to yourself, well, I can do more good if I stay, and then if I really vote my conscience on this sort of thing. So, you give away a little bit here and a little bit there and a little bit there and finally you don’t recognize yourself in the mirror anymore. And that’s – I grew up in a political family, but I watched how people behaved and they behave like human beings which is what you have to expect and I behave like human beings.
而当你当选，你会告诉自己：如果我留在这里，我就能做更多好事；然后在这种事情上你若按良知投票……于是这里让一点，那里让一点，久而久之镜子里已认不出自己。我出身政治家庭，见过人们的行为模式，他们的表现与“人性”一致，这是你必须预期到的——而我也同样具有人的弱点。
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