I.C.S.107.给新同事的入职手册
生意家是家小型企业，也不准备做大，但是我们有自己独特的商业模式和企业文化。我们每年都会招一些新同事，也有一些老同事会因为各种原因离开，《入职手册》的作用是让新同事尽快融入我们，当然，也应该检视自己是不是适合？
一、了解我们的文化
我们喜欢Dieter Rams的名言：Less , but better（更简单、更好），可以遵循更简单的方法但必须也是更好的方法。
1、《使命、愿景、价值观》
Attention Is All You Need，注意力就是一切。
（1）Mission（使命）：把钱种在地里，种下的每一块钱都能创造超过一块钱的价值。
（2）Vision（愿景）：成为长期储蓄、终身储蓄的载体。
（3）Values（价值观）：独立思考、正确思考。
2、《我们的原则》
对自己有信心，能“吃自己的饭”。
（1）角色互换的方式对待他人；
（2）吃自己的饭；
（3）追求长期回报；
（4）考虑最坏的情况；
（5）把钱种在地里，定期检查。
3、《我们的工作方法》
我们的工作不需要超凡的智商、非凡的商业洞察力或内幕信息，需要的是一个健全的决策思维框架，以及防止情绪侵蚀该框架的能力。
（1）Intelligent hypotheses（聪明的假设）；
（2）Correct facts（正确的事实）；
（3）Sound reasoning（合理的推理）。
4、《我们的长期主义》
长期主义的背后是坚实财务实力。
（1）大量且可靠的收益流；
（2）大量流动资产；
（3）没有显著的短期现金需求。
5、《我们的人才管理》
当鲜花绽放，杂草便失去存在感。随着时间推移，只需少数赢家便能创造奇迹。
二、了解我们的业务
我们的商业模式围绕资产配置展开，我们的工作方法围绕“Take a simple idea and take it seriously.”展开，每个“simple idea”都有编号：研究/Simple Ideas/Ideas，“take it seriously”=“Repeatedly Do”，就是我们的执行方案：研究/Repeatedly Do/I.C.S。
1、 投资
投资有四个长期不变的原则：（1）我们能理解的业务，（2）具有长期良好的经济前景，（3）由诚实且能干的人经营，以及（4）价格非常有吸引力。
2、套利
套利有很大的确定性，我们可以在很小的误差范围内，事先知道在多长时间内可以获得多少回报，以及可能出现什么意外，打乱原有计划。
三、找到自己的定位
我们发现多数毕业生不是缺少能力而是缺少安全感，我们能尽可能的提供机会，但没办法改变事实，即便如此，某方面不足往往可以通过另一面做一点补充，比如，执行力。
1、从执行做起
新同事一般从执行工作做起，对于多数新同事来说，这是个过渡性的岗位，当然，也可以选择一直做这个岗位。
2、投资和套利
投资和套利的工作各有侧重，投资的重点是独立思考，面对问题时能抓住重点、不被噪音干扰；套利的重点是执行效率，填好自己能填的“表格”。
3、我们都是平常人
每个人本来都具备做出非常事的潜质，阻挡潜质的最大屏障一是性格，二是接受现实的能力，其实在很多领域，独立思考和执行的工作往往不能兼容，做不到独立思考的可以努力做好执行方面的工作。
4、Appendix
And when I’m not around, the logical, at some point — it depends on exactly when it happens, again. But Charlie’s a little older than I am. And it’s likely that it will be broken into a two-person function again, but not exactly the way Charlie and I function.
当我不在时，按照逻辑，在某个时点——这还要取决于事情发生的具体时间。由于 Charlie 比我年长一些，很可能会再次分成两个人的职能，但不完全是我和 Charlie 现在这种分工方式。
And that is that there will be someone in charge of investments and capital allocation. I mentioned Lou Simpson’s position, because he is younger than I am, in the annual report, and then someone in charge of operations. And we have that person in the organization now.
也就是说，会有人负责投资与资本配置——我在年报里提到过 Lou Simpson 的角色，因为他比我年轻——同时还会有人负责运营。而我们现在组织内已经有这样的人选。
Now, I don’t know what the situation will be when I die, because it could be in 20 minutes or it could be in 20 years. And when that — so, I can’t specifically name the individuals.
不过我不知道自己去世时的具体情况，因为那可能是 20 分钟后，也可能是 20 年后。既然如此——我就无法具体点名这些人。
We have the individuals now for both those functions. We’ll have the individuals for the same functions 20 years from now. I don’t know whether they’ll be the same people.
现在我们在这两个职能上都有人；20 年后我们在同样的职能上也会有人。我不知道是否还是同一批人。
But it’s quite a logical way to run the business. GEICO was run that way and still is run that way and has been for some years.
但这是一种相当合理的经营方式。GEICO 就是这样运作的，现在仍是如此，而且已经这样很多年了。
It’s always struck me as terribly illogical, the way property-casualty insurance companies are run, because they’ve been dominated by the underwriting side of the business. And here they have this important investment side, but it’s always been — virtually every company’s been subservient to the underwriting.
我一直觉得财产意外险公司的管理方式非常不合逻辑，因为它们长期由承保端主导。而明明还有极其重要的投资端，但几乎每家公司都让投资端从属于承保端。
And GEICO, very logically, set up a co-CEO arrangement some years back where — originally Bill Snyder before that — but Tony Nicely ran the underwriting end of the business and Lou Simpson ran the investment side.
而 GEICO 很合理地在若干年前设立了联席 CEO 架构——在那之前是 Bill Snyder——Tony Nicely 负责承保端业务，Lou Simpson 负责投资端。
And those are two very different functions. Same person, logically, doesn’t fit both functions in most cases. I mean, it’s a rarity when the same person happens to hit for both functions.
这两项是截然不同的职能。从逻辑上说，同一个人多数情况下并不适合同时胜任二者。同一人能在两端都打出好成绩是非常罕见的。
So GEICO worked very well that way. Still works that way. Lou runs investments. Tony runs underwriting.
因此 GEICO 以这种方式运作得非常好。现在还是这样。Lou 负责投资，Tony 负责承保。
And Berkshire — slightly different — it’s a variant on it. But, essentially, at Berkshire headquarters, you need someone overseeing and not meddling in them too much, but making sure you’ve got the right manager and you’re treating him fairly.
而 Berkshire——略有不同——是这种模式的一个变体。基本上，在 Berkshire 总部，你需要有人进行监督，但不过度干预；要确保你找对了经理人，并公平对待他。
You need someone on the operating side. You need someone on the investment/capital allocation side. We’ve got those people now. And we’ll have them, you know, whenever it happens, too.
你需要一个负责运营的人；你也需要一个负责投资/资本配置的人。我们现在就有这些人。不管事情何时发生，我们届时也会有这些人。
That’s the — that is the structure. And we’ve got some very good businesses.
这——这就是结构。而且我们拥有一些非常优秀的业务。
And, you know, nobody’s buying See’s Candy because they think I’m sitting in some office in Omaha. And no one’s buying a GEICO insurance policy because, you know, my name is there as chairman or CEO. The businesses are marvelous businesses. They’ll continue very well.
而且你知道，没有人是因为以为我坐在奥马哈某个办公室里才去买 See’s Candy。也没有人是因为我的名字挂着董事长或 CEO 才去买 GEICO 的保单。这些业务本身就很出色，它们会继续发展得很好。
And there will be a capital allocation problem then just like there is now. And there will be the problem of keeping good managers in place and treating them fairly. And that’s a solvable problem.
届时仍会像现在一样面临资本配置问题，也会面临如何留住优秀经理人并公平对待他们的问题。而这些都是可解的问题。
So, that’s the future as seen from Kiewit Plaza.
所以，这就是从 Kiewit Plaza 望去所看到的未来。
WARREN BUFFETT: And there’s nothing wrong with the know-nothing investor practicing it. It’s exactly what they should practice. It’s exactly what a good professional investor should not practice. But that’s — you know, there’s no contradiction in that.
沃伦·巴菲特：对于一无所知的投资者来说，实践这种方法没有任何问题。这正是他们应该实践的。正是一个好的专业投资者不应该实践的。但这——你知道，这并不矛盾。
It — a know-nothing investor will get decent results as long as they know they’re a know-nothing investor, diversify as to time they purchase their equities, and as to the equities they purchase. That’s crazy for somebody that really knows what they’re doing.
一个一无所知的投资者只要知道自己是一无所知的投资者，并在购买股票的时间和所购买的股票上进行多元化，就会获得不错的结果。对于真正知道自己在做什么的人来说，这很疯狂。
能不能独立思考？既可以证实也可以证伪，这跟高血压、糖尿病一模一样，得了病的要吃药（终身吃药，填“表格”：做好执行），不吃药的是疯子；相反没得病的整天吃高血压、糖尿病的药也是疯子。
Becky Quick: This question comes from Scott Williams in Portland, Oregon. He said, “Do you think the net benefit of DOGE will be positive or negative for the long-term health of the United States?”
Becky Quick：这个问题来自俄勒冈州波特兰的 Scott Williams。他说：“你认为 DOGE 的净效应对美国的长期健康是正面还是负面？”
Warren Buffett: I think that bureaucracy is something that is amazingly prevalent and contagious even in our capital system, and big corporations overwhelmingly most of them look like they could be run better. I’m sure Berkshire does in many respects. And government is the ultimate. It really doesn’t have any checks on it.
Warren Buffett：我认为官僚主义在我们的资本体系中也惊人地普遍且具有传染性，绝大多数大型公司看起来都有提升经营的空间。我确信在很多方面 Berkshire 也是如此。至于政府，那更是终极形态——它实际上缺乏有效的制衡。
That’s why it scares you to some extent about what the future of the currency will be, because they can print currency. If you have people that get elected by promising people things – that doesn’t mean that they aren’t sincere about all kinds of items, but there’s no politician that says to anybody that has money, “I really think you have bad breath and if you don’t mind, would you step away from me.” It just doesn’t happen.
这也是为什么我们在一定程度上会对货币的未来感到担忧，因为他们可以印钞。若有人靠向民众许诺而当选——这并不意味着他们对各项主张不真诚，但没有政治人物会对有钱人说：“我觉得你口气很糟，麻烦离我远一点。”这种事不会发生。
I think the problem of how you control revenue and expenses in government is the one that is never fully solved and has really hurt dramatically many civilizations. I don’t think we’re immune from it, and we’ve come close to it.
我认为政府如何控制收支这个问题从未得到彻底解决，并且严重伤害过许多文明。我不认为我们能免疫，而且我们已多次接近危险边缘。
We’re operating at a fiscal deficit now that is unsustainable over a very long period of time. We don’t know whether that means two years or 20 years because there’s never been a country like the United States. But as Herbert Stein, the famous economist, said, “If something can’t go on forever, it will end.” We are doing something that is unsustainable, and it has the aspect to it that it gets uncontrollable to a certain point.
我们当前的财政赤字在很长时期内是不可持续的。究竟是两年还是二十年，我们并不知道，因为从未有过像美国这样的国家。但正如经济学家 Herbert Stein 所言：“不能永远持续的事，终将终止。”我们正在做一件不可持续的事，而且其中有一部分会在某个点变得不可控。
Paul Volcker kept that from happening in the United States, but we came close. We’ve come close multiple times. We’ve still had very substantial inflation in the United States, but it’s never been runaway yet. That’s not something you want to try and experiment with because it feeds on itself.
Paul Volcker 曾阻止这种情况在美国发生，但我们离临界点很近；而且不止一次。美国也经历过相当高的通胀，但尚未失控。你绝不想拿它做试验，因为一旦启动就会自我增强。
I wouldn’t want the job of trying to correct what’s going on in revenue and expenditures of the United States with roughly a 7% gap when probably a 3% gap is sustainable. The further away you get from that, the more you get to where the uncontrollable begins. It’s a job I don’t want, but it’s a job I think should be done. And Congress does not seem good at doing it.
我不愿意接手修正美国收支问题的工作——现在缺口大约是7%，而大概3%才是可持续水平。偏离越远，就越接近不可控。我不想做这件事，但我认为它必须有人去做。而国会看起来并不擅长此事。
We’ve got a lot of problems always as a country, but this is one we bring on ourselves. We have a revenue stream, a capital-producing stream, a brains-producing machine like the world has never seen. And if you picked a way to screw it up, it would involve the currency. That’s happened a lot of places.
作为一个国家，我们总会有很多问题，但这一项是我们自找的。我们拥有前所未见的收入创造力、资本生成力与人才生产机制。如果你非要挑一种方式把这一切搞砸，那就是货币问题。许多地方都发生过。
In theory, you would make it so there was substantial downside for anybody that screwed things up, but there isn’t downside. There’s upside. It’s the problem of the most successful company in the history of the country, in the history of the world.
理论上，你应当为任何把事情搞砸的人设置巨大的负面后果，但现实中并没有，反而有上行激励。这是这个国家、乃至世界历史上最成功体系所面临的问题。
Reproduced from moom.cn 2020 and updated through 2025.
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