I.C.S.104.我们的工作方法

在衡量结果之前重点关注决定的质量。

一、Intelligent hypotheses（聪明的假设）

从一家经济状况良好的企业入手，就像人群中的姚明，我们不可能有时间追踪每一个想法，所以需要有一个强有力的假设前提，然后再做进一步的研究，参考：《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》。

Now, the general premise of why you’re interested in something should be 80 percent of it or thereabouts. I mean, you don’t want to be chasing down every idea that way, so you should have a strong presumption.

不过，你之所以对某项投资感兴趣的基本前提应当占到大约80%。我的意思是，你不想用这种方法追踪每一个想法，所以你需要有一个强有力的假设前提。

You should be like a basketball coach who runs into a seven-footer on the street. I mean, you’re interested to start with; now you have to find out if you can keep him in school, if he’s coordinated, and all that sort of thing. That’s the scuttlebutt aspect of it.

你应该像一个篮球教练在街上遇到一个七英尺高的球员一样。我的意思是，你一开始就应该感兴趣；然后你需要了解他是否能留在学校，是否协调，诸如此类的事情。这就是“走访调查法”的一个方面。

But I believe that as you’re acquiring knowledge about industries in general, companies specifically, that there really isn’t anything like first doing some reading about them, and then getting out and talking to competitors, and customers, and suppliers, and ex-employees, and current employees, and whatever it may be.

但我相信，在你获取行业一般知识和具体公司信息时，确实没有什么比先阅读资料，然后与竞争对手、客户、供应商、前雇员、现雇员以及其他相关人士交流更有效的方法了。

And you will learn a lot. But it should be the last 20 percent or 10 percent. I mean, you don’t want to get too impressed by that, because you really want to start with a business where you think the economics are good, where they look like seven-footers, and then you want to go out with a scuttlebutt approach to possibly reject your original hypothesis.

你会从中学到很多。但这应该是最后的20%或10%的工作。我的意思是，你不想对这些印象过深，因为你确实应该从一家你认为经济状况良好的企业开始，就像那些七英尺高的篮球运动员一样，然后用“走访调查法”来验证或否定你的原始假设。

二、Correct facts（正确的事实）

寻找事实之前先弄明白第一点：Intelligent hypotheses（聪明的假设），或者叫定性分析、看问题的角度，等等，其重要性占到90%以上，乔布斯反复说：“Ultimately, it comes down to taste. It comes down to taste.”，参考：《1995 Steve Jobs.The Lost Interview》。

Cringeley: But how do you know what’s the right direction?

Cringeley：但是你怎么知道哪个方向是正确的呢？

Jobs: Ultimately, it comes down to taste. It comes down to taste. It comes down to trying to expose yourself to the best things that humans have done, and then try to bring those things into what you are doing.

Jobs：归根到底，这要归结为品味，归结为品味。关键在于让自己接触到人类所创造的最佳成果，然后把那些东西融入到你正在做的事情中。

品味、定性分析的能力和噪音是不兼容的（也就是平常心），如果没有应该怀疑自己的想法都只是噪音，参考：《1998-05-04 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》。

WARREN BUFFETT: Almost every business has problems, and we’d just as soon the manager would tell us about them.

沃伦·巴菲特：几乎每个企业都有问题，而我们希望经理能直接告诉我们这些问题。

We would like that in the businesses we run. In fact, one of the things, we give very little advice to our managers, but one thing we always do say is to tell us the bad news immediately. And I don’t see why that isn’t good advice for the manager of a public company.

我们希望在我们经营的企业中看到这种做法。事实上，我们很少给经理们建议，但我们总是告诉他们的一件事就是，立即告诉我们坏消息。我不明白为什么这对上市公司的经理来说不是一个好建议。

Over time, you know, I’m positive it’s the best policy. But a lot of companies, for example, have investor relations people, and they are dying just to pump out what they think is good news all the time.

随着时间的推移，我确信这是最好的政策。但很多公司都有投资者关系团队，他们热衷于不停地发布他们认为的好消息。

And they have this attitude that, you know, you’ve got a bunch of animals out there to be fed. And that they’re going to feed them what they want to eat all the time. And over time the animals learn.

他们的态度是，你知道，你有一群需要被喂养的动物。他们会一直喂给这些动物想要的东西。但随着时间的推移，这些动物也会学会辨别。

So we’ve tried to stay away from businesses like that.

因此，我们尽量避开这样的公司。

CHARLIE MUNGER: What you seldom see in an annual report is a sentence like this: “This is a very serious problem and we haven’t quite figured out yet how to handle it.” (Laughter)

查理·芒格：你很少在年度报告中看到这样一句话：“这是一个非常严重的问题，我们还没有完全想出如何解决它。”（笑声）

But believe me, that is an accurate statement much of the time.

但相信我，这在很多时候是一个准确的描述。

最后是拨开噪音以后的事实，我们无法预测那些没有大量证据的事情，参考《2018-05-05 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting》。

I mean, we don’t foresee things that we haven’t got a lot of evidence in on.

我们无法预测那些没有大量证据的事情。

三、Sound reasoning（合理的推理）

事实和决策之间还有两个关键点：足够重要、并且可计量，以下是巴菲特最初买入可口可乐的理由，参考：《1991 Warren Buffett.Three Lectures to Notre Dame Faculty》。

I used to tell the stock exchange people that before a person bought 100 shares of General Motors they should have to write out on a [piece of paper:] “I’m buying 100 shares of General Motors at X” and multiply that by the number of shares “and therefore General Motors is worth more than $32 billion” or whatever it multiplies out to, “because ... [fill in the reasons]” And if they couldn’t answer that question, their order wouldn’t be accepted.

我过去常对交易所的人说，在某人买入100股通用汽车之前，他应该在一张纸上写下：“我以X价格买入100股通用汽车”，再乘以股数，“因此通用汽车的价值超过320亿美元”，或者算出多少就是多少，“因为……【写明理由】”。如果他回答不了，就不该接受订单。

That test should be applied. I should never buy anything unless I can fill out that piece of paper. I may be wrong, but I would know the answer to that. “I’m buying Coca Cola right now, 660 million shares of stock, a little under $50. The whole company costs me about $32 billion dollars.” Before you buy 100 shares of stock at $48 you ought to be able to answer “I’m paying $32 billion today for the Coca Cola Company because...” [Banging the podium for emphasis.] If you can’t answer that question, you shouldn’t buy it. If you can answer that question, and you do it a few times, you’ll make a lot of money.

必须采用这种测试。除非我能填好那张纸，否则绝不买。我可能会出错，但我会知道答案。“我现在买可口可乐，6.6亿股，每股不到50美元，整家公司成本约320亿美元。”在你以48美元买入100股之前，你应能回答：“我今天花320亿美元买下可口可乐，因为……”【敲讲台强调】若答不上，就不该买。若能回答并重复几次，你会赚大钱。

[From the audience: “Well, you bought it, how did you answer it?”]

【观众问：“那您买了，您怎么回答？”】

Well, it was only $14 billion. I would say this: “If you added a penny to price of every Coca Cola sold in the world this year, that would add $2 billion to pretax earnings.” Now you tell me whether you think there’s a penny, worldwide, of price flexibility per serving of Coke. Well, the answer is “you know there is.”

当时才140亿美元。我会这么答：“如果今年全球每杯可乐涨价一分钱，就能增加20亿美元税前利润。”那么，你觉得每杯可乐在全球范围里有没有涨价一分钱的灵活空间？答案显然是“有”。

I.C.S.104.我们的工作方法

I.C.S.104.我们的工作方法

一、Intelligent hypotheses（聪明的假设）

二、Correct facts（正确的事实）

三、Sound reasoning（合理的推理）

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